The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To $92K, Gold Breaks Out, Dollar COLLAPSING | Macro Monday

Episode Date: April 21, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6319316098351104

Bitcoin is up with many analysts saying that it should be heading into the 90,000. Gold is making new all-time high after all-time high, while the DXY, the dollar index versus other currencies is crashing and stocks are down. Oh, and by the way, yields are up. So if anyone can make any sense of this absolute confusion, we've got James Lavish, Dave Weisberger, and Mike McGlone here, the three greatest in the game when we need to make sense of this nonsense. Because frankly, I have no idea what the hell is happening.

Welcome to Macro Monday. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Malcom also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. We're gonna go ahead and bring on the three gentlemen. Now the four amigos, I guess we will be, you guys can be the three amigos. Do the thing, do you remember the three amigos? That was a great movie. Mike, I have to imagine that the morning meeting went something like this. Yeah.

Hands in the air, what the hell's going on? Good, good point. You nailed it. Just some key headlines. Stuart Pauls, our economist, just pointed out IMF World Economic Outlook tomorrow. The trend in GDP estimate revisions is downward. We get that globally, everywhere.

Eric Eidberg, you fit in for fixed income, just pointed out negativity in home builders index. Stuart reiterated that. And Gina was just pointed out. Gina's still quite bearish. She said she's kind of shocked. We haven't seen more short covering rallies. She pointed out the market's in some kind of denial.

She pointed out generally the market's still priced for 15% earnings growth. And that's kind of shocking with sales going down. There's a trend in downward estimate revisions in earnings. See the trends there. So the morning meeting was quite doom and gloom bearish. And I keep the thing that really struck me was when what Gina mentioned was markets in some kind of denial. And that was kind of my, that really struck for me. You know, it's interesting. I don't know if it's, it is definitely in denial in ways we

can see that. Though futures are selling off. Again, Mike, you and I have talked about this endlessly. The clues are in the bond market. Look at the bonds. I mean, the bonds are again selling off. Get the two year to the 30 year spread is so wide. It's the widest it's been since what, in the 90s? It is wide. Am I quoting that incorrectly?

That's pretty wide. Yep. It's the top of Celestia. Yeah, exactly. So let's see if I can bring up this chart that actually shows that. So let's see if we can bring this up. And here's what's, in my mind, here's what's going on. Now it's the widest it's been since, and that was my, I was exaggerating. It's the widest it's been since 22, which really has blown out that spread. what's going on I think that investors are getting pretty concerned with Trump now threatening Powell and So now you're starting to see that the dollars under pressure

Treasuries under are under pressure We've got the uncertainty of the budget negotiations that are coming up for a new limit, debt limit. There's never really a limit. We all know that. But if the spending seems to be blown out still, even with Doge, that's bad because we're going to have even more bonds that come to the market, which means that there's going to be even more need for liquidity liquidity and there's less liquidity out there and that's starting to get people nervous. Now if you've got Trump turning around threatening

to fire Powell, all on top of it, it all adds up to the greatest, most impactful word, the worst word for markets, which is uncertainty. And so that's kind of where we're at, you know? And so people are piling into gold for that flight to safety. They're not piling into treasuries. That's probably the biggest, if you ask Luke Grom,

this is gonna be the biggest marker on the road right now is people are not piling into treasuries. And that's an issue. Um, so if you have a threat to the treasury being the flight to safety, then that's gonna be, uh, that's gonna be very difficult for the U. S. Fiscally. And so, um, funny enough, I'm gonna T Dave up here, Bitcoin is rising amidst all this. And that is a very interesting, it's a very interesting moment.

Does it mean anything? Well, we don't really know yet. It could be that Bitcoin just found a local bottom for now. But it is very interesting that Bitcoin and gold are up in the face of everything else being down. Could, I think this is simple, Occam's razor. Two things, first, people are selling US shit outside the US and there's not enough US people left

to buy the US shit, so guess what? Its price goes down. Second, Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset to US shit. It's a global asset. And, you know, if I keep hearing more about I will relentlessly mock Mike for his beta comment. I will not relentlessly mock Mike for his intelligent comments about gold and why it matters and why it's likely to be a bit the biggest benefit or his intelligent comments about oil as we careen down the world towards a global recession seems like it's already happening.

So when I see people listening to you, I mean, it's a very big deal and the administration doesn't get it. Even Florida's tourism is down and noticeably down. You know, we have friends all over the world and we're hearing the same thing. The media in the UK, the media in Europe, the media in Japan don't know about Asia.

Although I was with a couple of people from Singapore and it is true there are telling people, do things like get burner phones if you come into the US because you don't know what's going to happen to you. It's all a bunch of fear. Tourism is way down. Imports of US goods is down. That is, it is, you know, this kind of shock and awe approach, which he thought would

be related to just businesses, is not only affecting businesses. It's hitting people pretty hard, and we have not seen the effects. The economy is far worse than the president thinks it is. And that is a serious problem. You know, it's interesting, Dave, is that you've had some channel stuffing here with people buying goods, really like really going out and buying goods right now

to avoid the future tariffs. And so you've got a lot of noise in the economic numbers right now. The problem, the biggest single problem with economic numbers, and it's why the Fed has always, why I can't even fathom how there's 20,000 people that work there, when the bus do a better job of economic prognostication than the Fed does. I mean, it is the most monumental waste of money and why am I always telling we got to audit the Fed and figure out because it's like how many economists is it screw in a light bulb? And the answer is in the Fed's cases is, you know, 10,000 of them because they decided rather than moving

the light bulb, they want to rotate the house. You know, it's they don't have a fucking clue. And I'm sorry, but they don't. You know, it's backward looking. Unfortunately, administration is the same problem, backward looking. They look at the GDP data and they're seeing channel stuffing, but if you look out a quarter, it looks ugly. It looks really ugly.

And it's for a reason. And I'm saying this very clearly because it's visceral. You know, I'm going to be Peter Lynch here. You can go out in Florida, in Miami. In its prime time, we are here in April. And I can't tell you how beautiful the weather is, Mike, you know, it's been gorgeous. And the hotels are not full. The restaurants are not full. Everyone you talk to says it's down.

You guys were away. So we didn't get to do our dinner. But I will tell you, I went to Miami last week and My wife comments to me that once you looked at open table at every restaurant You could possibly want to go to all weekend. You could get any reservation you wanted I've never seen anything like not even Miami doesn't he go seven o'clock Two people four people hot restaurant. That's usually six months of reservation. It was just sitting there. Restaurants are empty. Miami we went we went to a place that last year you had to wait, you know, you couldn't get a reservation to big place and win and win what I'm not gonna name it. It's not

not not incredibly expensive. But one of these hot kind of trendy places there. There, I think there had to be 50 tables there. There were two tables might want two tables full when we went there. That was seven o'clock. Dallas is the same way just a couple of weeks ago. People don't like to put stock in this, but this is going to show up in data in a month or two. So if you wanna know why.

And you've seen the airlines, how nervous they are, they've all been talking their numbers down. The world's in a recession, the data hasn't shown it yet. It will show it in a quarter So what does that mean for investing? Well, you know if you're a US company your profits are going to be lower if you're selling stuff, right? You know in a couple quarters if you're a you know, it could very well be if you're that there will be winners and there Will be losers people however understand what's going to happen. You know, all the bullshit with Trump and Powell, it doesn't really matter. You know, there's lots of stuff going on.

You know, Elizabeth Warren, we talked about it, what she said. If Trump fires Powell and goes into some sort of weird power play with the Federal Reserve, then what will happen? Risk assets and you know, will do what risk assets always do when you inject a fire hose of liquidity because that's literally the only reason he would do it is to do exactly that. Bitcoin and gold will moon, gold will continue its upward move, inflation, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. We could game theory that out. Risk assets are kind of caught

because corporate profits are gonna be down, but, and they will be down, there's no doubt about that, but people are gonna say, well, the money has to go somewhere. And so you end up making the same mistake. I mean, there's, you know, we could go on ad nauseam about this, but the bottom line is,

if you wanna know what's happening is people are not buying US stuff, and therefore US stuff is going down in value outside of the world. Us, in an interconnected world, I don't want to go all Thomas Friedman, but the fact is the world is interconnected and this administration thinks it isn't.

And if there isn't a resolution where it's very, very clear, and by the way, if I were Japan or if I were any other country, I would basically be saying, hmm, this just doesn't make sense and we're pushing back hard. This could easily turn into a big L across the board for the US in a lot of places. So, we'll see what they do, but the likelihood of pain is high. the I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it.

I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold it. I don't know if you've ever sold look at it from November, if you pick any timeframe other than the apex of the pre-Trump rally, which is what you're doing, any time

it doesn't matter. You could pick, we could pick a hundred different timeframes other than the apex of the pre-Trump rally and you don't come to the same conclusion. That's the problem. And so, and people understand this, you know, it's do I expect Bitcoin to soften from here today if NASDAQ and whatnot keep going down? Yeah, of course I do. Do I expect gold to continue to outperform as far as this goes until something happens? Yeah, I do. Bitcoin will outperform when it's grinding higher, and then Bitcoin will go through some

face-melting rally and pass it like it always does. But at the end of the day, there will be more correlation between Bitcoin and gold than there is between Bitcoin and risk assets when we look back five years from now. And there are a lot of people who believe that. So if you look at what happened, Bitcoin went up this weekend, but more or less we're still at the top of a trading range.

I mean, maybe we're- Maybe above 88. I mean, if you're talking about it from a technical perspective, just quickly. I mean, maybe above 88. I mean, if you're talking about it, from a technical perspective, just quickly, I mean, the next to finally break lower highs and lower lows for anyone who cares about charts got to get above 88 804. Everything besides that is noise, but we are which one is really breaking out here right now. What what chart is that?

That's a daily Bitcoin dollar chart. From what? Where's the back of it? This is the right here is from January 25th when it made the all-time high Okay. Now, it can you go zoom back out, you know another double the length of that chart. Here's a weekly Yeah weekly is it? Yeah, you see here, right? But you see what you see if you look, if you draw it back from there, I mean, we had this huge rally in anticipation

that the market has to digest. And Mike keeps looking at the correlation from this ticky, ticky top. If you go back there or any other place, to the left of the chart or any other place. That's the point. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist. We've been doing this, you know, we do this every week.

And we were talking about between 78 and 83 78 and 83 and and I said 78 to 80 was a tradable bottom we were sitting here between around 83 83 and now today we're at 86 or 87 all the time what's the Nasdaq done in that period of time what's the S&P down here's the cues and they obviously down. They're down another 1.2% with Bitcoin up today. And if you take a look at this chart for the people who like Fibonacci's, you get the top to the bottom. That big bounce you always get almost even in a bear market that Mike loves to talk about, face melting rallies

in bear market, usually bounce up 50% and then head back down. Go back to the weekly on that. Go back to the weekly on that. And what you see, the same, if you got them in the same time scale. Yeah, that's weekly. Right, so you see, that looks very different. That's a grinding rally higher.

Bitcoin was like, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and then- This just made that first lower low. Bitcoin's been doing that. That's right. So it's been different. And as I said, those are not correlated assets in the in the long term.

And you can go back even further, it doesn't really matter where you go back to look, when the dollar goes down and the did not when you're talking about the denominator, when you're printing money, and people are buying because they have no other place to put money. And that's what's going on in our stock market for decades now Then and and that's why mike and i agree On on you know the extension, you know, the the the market cap to gdp

And oh by the way if we're right about recession that market back up to gdp if the market hangs in even like this Is going to be even higher Right that creates that that creates certain bits of correlation. Anyway, look, looking at betas and correlations, I know I harp on that, but it matters. On the other hand, that said, I tell you, it's true. Mike is 100% right. During the US trading day, if you look down and you see Bitcoin just rallied, I haven't looked, but I'll bet you futures just rallied on S&P and NASDAQ, right? Because that would be a guess.

And if it isn't, then that would be different. But yeah, exactly. So that's the point. And so yeah, there's a partial correlation here because the money flows are correlated. That matters. But this notion that Bitcoin is leveraged beta is one that come on, it's not, it's just it's a volatile asset

because it's repeat after me an option. And you get your people who are dealing with this stuff. Did Sailor announce where he bought his Bitcoin yet? This week? He bought, he got it right here. He bought, wow, and it's not small, acquired 6,556 for 555.8 million at 84 785. So it's actually up on that. Yay.

I'm up on it now at 67 766 per Bitcoin. Right. So, you know, look, I personally think that that his methodology of buying is dumb. I'm not going to lie. I think that you know that you could use you could do you could DCA and doing it over the weekend is it's it looks like he's trying to create market impact, which is never which never works. And I think a large part of this market understands that. That said, there are 60 some odd other companies going along with them now. And there are, you know, and that's kind of a big deal. So, you know, there's a lot of head, a lot of tailwinds for Bitcoin that aren't really materializing, but Mike's point, and I want to phrase it this way,

because so many people dunk on Mike. Most of what Mike's saying, I agree with, literally most, we're in recession. Oil is, look, you saw what happened to oil this over the weekend, right? It's very sensitive to that. But it's just this disconnect with Bitcoin that drives me kind of crazy. One part that is right though is dollar weaker, Bitcoin stronger.

I mean, that's just clear. This is the dollar, James. I mean, people who are like, dollar's not crashing, it's at 98 and has been straight down over 12% since January, that is a monster move on the dollar. And for those who haven't looked at the gold chart, by the way, holy moly. I mean, that thing is absolutely insanely parabolic. Those two things are very, very meaningful. The thing is, when the dollar is weaker, you're supposed to see stocks and risk going up, right? So that's where I think a lot of the confusion comes.

That's right. So I mean, look, I think that some of these topics are overplayed, but there are some very important bits here. So if this is a blow off top for gold, I don't believe that's true by the way, then you invest in one direction. If this is a repricing of gold, because we know the money printer is going to have to get fired up one way or another, and the rest of the world is basically telling, you know, the market is basically telling the president, hey, dude, you're wrong. The question is, will he realize that he's wrong and what will happen? That's the question.

And I'm really curious, you know, what people are thinking. I don't know what the tea leaves are. And, you know, it's like, he's been nuts. And I'm not gonna, I can't phrase it anyone else on social media about a lot of stuff, you know, right? But he did make one point, which is interesting, which is he said that the markets are going

to demand from the administration a blood sacrifice. I don't know what the hell that means, but they're going to need to see people backing off. And I have no idea who it will be or what will be, but it does seem like there's going to have to be some changes and the market can force that change. We used to talk about bond vigilantes. This is literally not just bonds. This is the market vigilantes, right?

I mean, Mike, you've seen this before. I mean, we've seen this movie before. And it, you know, the last time we saw anything like this to a president of the United States, I was in college. It was Jimmy Carter. Yeah, Mike, go ahead. Yeah, but we can all agree that the markets are not the economy and that's been part of the disconnect here. the the single thing in the 70s that I used to harp on and I got into arguments with my economic professors on in it's actually the early 80s. I can't imagine Dave getting an argument with a professor.

Well, try being a monetarist at Northwestern and you understand that. But they completely missed and Volcker understood and Reagan understood the impact the importance of sentiment and inflationary expectations on inflation. The Keynesian models of the day all said, all said it would take seven years of recession to grind the inflation out of the economy. They all said that, but they neglected the fact that expectation becomes reality. And people, once they believed it wouldn't happen,

stopped asking for wage increases and just wanted to keep the damn job. But the problem is that kind of shock treatment to the economy worked when you had a 34% debt to GDP, not when you're 130 or 200. And that's a very, very big difference. So what does that mean? Well, it means that if you try the same thing, and people have argued 4D chess, I don't think

there's any 4D chess going on. I think that there's a misunderstanding of the interconnectedness of the global economy and supply chains. And they did something that is just nuts, which is assume the US could build and turn on a dime when we haven't changed any of the ability for us to build stuff. To me, that's a big deal. I assume that your economist, Mike, have talked about the fact that how long it takes to build factories here and permitting and regulations. And you know, you talk about Doge. Especially in certain states, in certain states like California.

You're not. California. Anything for the next four years. What's that? I said California. You can't, you just can't. And so to assume. Here are 12 blocks and it says, no, sorry, we've got the spotted lizard from,

and you just, we can't impact. Don't find a tortoise, do not find a tortoise on the land You know, lizard from and you just, we can't impact. Don't find a tour. Do not find a tortoise on the land where you need to build a factory. Because even in Florida, you'll never get that factory built. I mean, it's crazy if you think about it. I mean, there have been four permits as of last week issued

after the fires, four, 50,000 houses destroyed. I think that was the number. Four have had rebuild permits issued. I mean, this is the state you're dealing with. And it's not just them. I mentioned last week, there's been not one mine for rare earths approved, despite the fact that in, like the Pebble Mine, I think it's in Alaska,

they had it got a environmental impact statement, doesn't matter, still not approved, not approved, not approved, not approved. Forget refining rare earths which is even worse. Where the leaching you can't do it. So that's a real problem. And if we don't fix that can't you can't talk about trade deficits. So I exist. I do want to hear because look on the pre market trading, you know, I bet FBTC Europe they're both up like two and a half two point seven percent and then from Friday and Actually from Thursday. Sorry the and the futures are down over one percent. I Am interested to hear what and this is actually an indicator of what's going on in the world.

I'm interested to hear what Mike does. What do you think is the cause of that? Do you think it's an anomaly or do you just think it's just, I mean, how do you, how do we explain? I mean, I think it's a lot has to do with the dollar and there's no flight to safety to

the bonds right now. They're going into gold and it looks like bitcoin is sharing that but that's what do you think Mike? I mean I'm not trying to put you on the spot. I just really am interested in what you think is happening. First of all, I never get mad when someone disagrees with me. I really appreciate the views, but I am entertained by having been doing this for the four decades with mostly people who are traders, not people who are long stuff that's got lots of speculative in it. It's how crypto people get mad when you disagree with them and they love you when you agree with them. So I got to show a few screens real quick and I'll piggyback.

First of all, the most volatility discombobulation happens in bear markets. This is 200 week moving average of Bitcoin overlaid with the S&P 500. Good luck with that not being correlated. It's the same chart. So I just look at the 200 week moving average in Bitcoin is 46,000. Sorry, I think we're going there. Not a big deal. The 200 week moving average in SMB 500 is 1 tenth that, 4600. Sorry, I think we're going there. Right now, this is a bit of an historic anomaly. Maybe it's different. First sign of that would be happening if Bitcoin can sustain above 90,000, if it can do what it's doing today, if it can break above those levels I look at as a trader, you bounce up above levels, you put on a short, you put on a stop, if

you're stopped out, then you go for what the stop proved you wrong. Right now we haven't done that. We're just bumping up against the upper end of the range. Same with Ethereum. Maybe it gets to 2000 again, put stops above, test shorts. Here's a key thing I want to play with and show you the thing I learned early on. Peter Stoudemore, market profile.

This is just a Bitcoin to gold ratio. It got way too expensive. We all identified that last year and it just got back to 25x. That's the high volume price from last year. That's nothing. That's the mean reversion. It should bounce from that level. So Bitcoin to Gold ratio. But I just want to show you how this works. And Dave always points out, you have to point out different points in time. So let's go back just a full year, two years of that. The Bitcoin to Gold ratio could easily get back to the mean around 15. Let's go back to another two years, 2022. But the key thing, the point is when I'm making it, this asset has gone so far, so fast, that people have to realize when money leaves the

system, which is just starting, you hit the stuff that's most expensive and most volatile. Even if people say it's celebrities go, this is part where I get to 10,000 Bitcoin. If you just go back to the most significant money pumping history, which is what we're doing now, we're learning all the lessons of pumping too much money in the system, getting inflation at the highest in 30 years, and then you start the reversion. We've got a great reason for that. It can get all the way down to here. So that's just the point I want to make, and it's if there's institutions coming in the

space, why is open interest plunging? It's down 36 from the peak and why has there been five billion dollars of outcomes from bitcoin ETFs in the last three months i'm just pointing out facts sorry i just today's great no let me i hate you dave before you jump in mike i want to ask you another question so sorry were you finished if not you go but i just find it out this i remember this is the person who has been very bullish in the past. I called for Bitcoin to lose a zero from 10,000 in 2018. Sorry, it got down to 3,000. It's the same thing now. The thing is, it's just so much more commoditized. It's so much more financialized, and there's so much people who own it. And the key thing I get is that it's the reaction you get

from people. I've always used it. It's a human nature. They looked at me like, I mean, they're shocked that I could say, get back to 10,000. Well, it's just where it was a few years ago. That's the point. We're way too over leveraged long, a very highly speculative risk asset that people view as digital gold. I've always used it as digital gold. It just got too expensive.

All commodities get too expensive, and then they get to low price cure. Now, I think we just haven't done that yet. And this is a Bitcoin gold ratio back up. Yes. So here's my question. Obviously, you said something gets overextended and then naturally that's the thing that sells off. And can we argue that gold is getting overextended now doubt from a trader who's been buying that as a trade is looking at 3400 and saying my god I've got a trip.

But the question is if it's actually China and a central bank buying and their price agnostic and they're just trying to gain more exposure then all bets are off as far as traders and charts. So all bets are never off for rational traders and this is just my background and it's all bets are never off for rational Traders and this is just my background and it's key thing you learn sometimes is some people are fundamental Some people are technical some people are both I'm everything but I remember from technicians some of the best traders I know most of them are retired or dead would point out that they would not please don't talk about the fundamentals and distorts my View so I just want to point a few things about gold I'm on the tips just ready to write a published report about gold getting expensive. Now just remember, people say it's the stuff you

say, and this is not stuff I say, this is stuff I repeat what I publish on the Bloomberg terminal. Remember, there's what, I know how many, almost thousands of professionals will use that. So I just repeat that in the show. And I'm going to point out right now, gold's up 30% in the year. In the last hundred years, there's only been eight times it's been up only 30% in the year. In the last 100 years, there's only been eight times it's been up only 30% in the year. The most recent example is 2007. I was very long gold because I had the same situation it was now. I was more of a trader. I thought everything was too expensive. Yes, it went down a little bit in 2008, but only gave back some of those gains. So I just want to point out the other times, every single one of them was in the 70s and almost every single time Crudell was rallying, it was up almost 50%. Right now Crudell is down 12%.

This is the epic deflation from the inflation that some of us have been speaking about for two years. Typically it takes a couple of years. Remember, there's a quote from Roger Batson in 1929. It's all kicking in now. And I think that's my point is when money leaves the system, you hit and sell what you can. And yes, I agree with Bitcoin's digital goal. But that whole space, even the fact that Dogecoin is up more than Bitcoin to me, says this is short covering the risks because it goes back down and the risks we have to get cheap. We always do that.

But one good example is just recently natural gas got really cheap. It got down to 1.5. It bumped up. That's just a shorter term thing. So I look at it as a commodities. It's a number on it. It's a commodity. It's a number on the screen. And be careful with the fundamentals. Just watch what the market's telling you right now. Yes, it's showing some divergent strength, but here's the key thing about still bullish gold. And bottom line, it's very simple. I'm much more in the Warren Buffett camp than the Michael Saylor camp. And I've been in the Michael Saylor camp before, I'm much more in the Warren Buffett camp than the Michael Saylor camp. I've been in the Michael Saylor camp before, particularly 2020, but he pressured the market

gods. I think Dave's doing that now too. And I just like out, that's why I still point out Bitcoin to gold ratio is the same as it was in 2021. I'm sticking with gold. It's expensive. That's where everything's getting expensive. And I still want to point out one key thing that's going to happen is yes, they're hitting

treasuries right now. But believe me, if they're hitting treasury, that's the worst for the stock market. This is the average of the yields of the top three exporting countries on the planet, China, Japan, Germany. Their average is 1.8%. We're at 4.32%. Now, we've seen this before. It's a short-term blip.

But at some point, I think we're going back down here. We've seen this before. I made the same calls in the past. I've been early. I've been wrong on this one. But to me, that's where we're going. down here. We've seen this before. I made the same calls in the past. I've been early. I've been wrong on this one. But to me, that's where we're going. The rest of the world's deflating rapidly. And we're just, we haven't broken,

we just broke some trend lines. It has to be 500. We get the 4,000, which Gene is looking for. Then things get serious. Right now, it's just been a minor correction in a bull market. Okay. Scott, can you share, hold on a second, Dave,

can you share this chart? So here's normalized, what you're looking at here normalized chart five years back, the white line is the NASDAQ. The green line is Nvidia, the orange line is Bitcoin. Now Bitcoin is lagging the adoption of Nvidia. And so here's my here's what's interesting to me, Mike, is I think you're just looking at Bitcoin as just a pure risk, pure speculative asset, and that is the way you're seeing it, and that's fine. This is where you're, in my opinion, differ. I think Bitcoin is being adopted, just like Nvidia is being adopted, just like NVIDIA is being adopted by

computer makers, you know, the high speed, the high performance computer makers and the cloud engine. So this is a picture of an asset that's being adopted. And it's in the adoption phase. I mean, you can pick out any of these little periods here and say, yeah, it was correlated. Nope, it wasn't. Yes, it was. Nope, it wasn't. You know, and to Dave's point, you pick out periods where it was and it wasn't correlated to the overall market.

Maybe it was leading it. Maybe it was just more volatile than it. But this period right here, it's not correlated right here. Maybe Bitcoin let it down, but it's been holding this level here while the NASDAQ has ground lower this whole period. What I'm saying here is that this is, I believe, an asset that's being adopted. You know that because of the hash rate.

We go back to the hash rate over and over and over and over and over again. Why does it matter? I quoted this in the tweet last week and that it actually has to be updated. The Bitcoin is using 180 terawatt hours of power. And what does that mean? That is the equivalent of 21 full-scale nuclear reactors

using energy for this network. What's important about that, Mike, is that no other cryptocurrency that you're talking about has anything even close, like nothing even close to that kind of backing and that kind of adoption rate. So the actual, what we ought to be looking at is the adoption rate and the hash rate to understand what's happening behind the scenes this sometimes the volatility of it has to do with?

the the adoption phase of it and Just like you are looking at it that way many many many people are looking at Bitcoin as as a speculative asset And hoping that maybe look at rich off bit and trading around it and levering around it. And that's all fine and good. But if you look at the long, long, long-term chart of it, it's being adopted. That's reality. Now whether or not that hashrate is being driven by sovereigns is another question. And we, we, I don't want to get into just a Bitcoin only show here, but what's important about that is we have to understand

that hashrate is being driven higher at the expense of the current mining environment and the current public miners. They cannot keep up and stay profitable like that. And they're selling. And they're selling, this is insane. And so why is that happening? Who's mining at a loss?

That's a good question. And I think we have some speculative answers there, but it's not just this thing is just a, you know, whipping around on a trading desk or in the exchanges. This is something that's happening behind the scenes. And so it's much bigger than that, in my opinion. But we talked about publicly traded miners quickly, Mike, just to support that, that March was the biggest month of selling in

Very very many months if not years by public miners and they just have to to support the business to your point Yeah, it was silly for people who have a vested interest in a price going up to add to that I mean it's being in the commodity space all the time producers should always hedge by selling normal backwardation. Well, okay, so I time producers should always hedge by selling normal backwardation. Well, okay, so James, you quoted things I said eight years ago. Got it. Bitcoin is being adopted. That's my point. I think we've reached the peak.

Let me finish. At 100,000, with the launch of ETFs, I said that for almost six years, as soon as we get widely disseminated ETFs, that'll be a bit of a peak. We've gotten that. Now, my main premise is once we flush out some of the excesses and some of these silly cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and Shibuini and all those, then we'll see a bottom. I don't see signs of that. So first of all, to show for me to get some more bullish, first of all, close above $90,000,

stay above this. Ethereum, close above $2,000, stay above there. Bitcoin to gold ratio, which I'm showing you here. If it's so Bitcoin so great, why is it the same as it was four years ago? So that's my point. If Bitcoin can't beat this boomerang, something's wrong with Bitcoin. That's my point. Once I see maybe inflows in ETFs start picking up, and I mean for a couple months in a row, yes, let me finish. Let me finish. Let me finish. And once I see open interest in futures start picking up, yes, it's a good sign. My point is right now, we're seeing a little divergence bounce.

I'm pointing out if we keep going down in the stock market, money is going to lead the system. All these speculative Xs will continue to leave. And if Dogecoin goes down, you see the correlation. Bitcoin is much more highly correlated in Dogecoin than it is to gold or S&P 500. But Mike, gold has been around for thousands and thousands of years. Bitcoin's been around for 15 years. Yes, and it's had a great run at best performing assets.

I'm just pointing out, I think so simple, simple. I'm in Warren Buffett's camp. We can disagree. I mean, it's great to disagree. Warren Buffett, by the way, has never gotten technology right. And Warren Buffett is and I want to point out today about Warren Buffett because it matters to the next comment. Warren Buffett is the single biggest benefic point out today about Warren Buffett because it matters to the next comment Warren Buffett is the single biggest

Beneficiary of financialization on the planet Warren Buffett has made most of his money by buying You know some of you know, yeah, okay. Famously. He bought insurance companies. He's bought some other stuff he made so he has made his money on the basis of So he has made his money on the basis of the massive amounts of monetary printing and debasement, which has created this massive trend to where the financial industry has more than doubled its value inside of the real economy, despite adding no more value to the real economy. And anyone who's ever negotiated, you've been on a derivative desk, you know Berkshire and Buffett and Munger before he passed away were the were the worst people on the planet to negotiate derivatives with. You know that they squeezed every single penny out of it. So every time

people look at him as a kind old grandpa, no, he's a shark. And he's he's literally the most emblematic human being of why we have the greatest wealth inequality in human history. And it is really true, because when you pump the money supply, you make money to people like Buffett, but he never got technology, right? He's always been wrong. He was wrong. I meant one thing, the cash. And he tells you that.

Yeah, and he understands that. But let's go into it, because there's two things that you're saying that are really problematic. Well, show my screen. that's so but but let's go into it because there's things that you're saying that are that are really problematic number one. Well show my screen Prove to me that gold is Listen, that's three or four years now that Bitcoin the gold is the same Mike two things first First one you win, you're right. Bitcoin got ahead of its adoption. It's silly

Scott pull up the Bitcoin hash rate long-fall It's silly. Scott, pull up the Bitcoin hash rate long fall versus Bitcoin price. And in 2021, Bitcoin got way the fuck ahead of its network development. People, it was a hype cycle and we had all sorts of shit. We had FTX, which people, you know, at the bottom of FTX with forced selling of basically half the industry collapsing, they couldn't get it below 16,000 and V bottom back to over 20. So when you talk about 10, it makes my head hurt. You're basically saying it's gonna fail. But okay, no, it is. You said that. I would. I wouldn't call it a

failure. I just call it normal backup like Amazon did. And then it became the best asset ever. But it had a flush. It is. It flushes like the look at your chart of the S&P and Bitcoin and all that other stuff, you have to factor out monetary, the global M2. You have to, because that's literally, no, that's, but that's what it is. Gold's going to trade around it. Everything trades around it because you can't ignore the denominator. Now Bitcoin has had its own unique stuff, right? People got really too excited in 21. It went way over its skis. Its adoption now is there. You're saying ETFs was the apex of adoption. No. The apex of adoption is when people are buying Bitcoin in spot and when the economy around Bitcoin allows that to happen. This weekend was a massive announcement on Saturday

that we have to talk about. And if you think that this isn't relevant, you're not paying attention. Charles Schwab said they're gonna offer Bitcoin and crypto trading within the next 12 months. Now, Morgan Stanley said they were gonna do it through E-Trade. This is Charles Schwab. And I know that this is serious. I can't say how I know this is serious.

And I know this is serious. Because now all of a sudden, if Charles Schwab is doing this, every single broker dealer is gonna let every single financial advisor trade Bitcoin spot, not just ETFs and not only unsolicited, they're going to put it as part of portfolios. That is a massive piece of news.

That's why it's up today, in my opinion. In my opinion, this piece of news is why Bitcoin is bucking the trend, not because people have all of a sudden got religion, hallelujah, Bitcoin is more like gold, but this is the reason. Because smart people understand this is a major, major piece of news. Now, every time we've had major, major piece of news that I've thought about this, it's been early. When Paul Tudor Jones said it was the fastest horse, it kind of went up a little and then

a few months later it exploded. We see these sorts of gap volatility all the time. So those are two things. Adoption, it's not done. Bitcoin is still held by a vanishingly small percentage of people with wealth around the world. It is not even close to done. I'm sure James has these statistics in the deck he uses to talk to investors about. So the adoption of Bitcoin isn't done. If it were, if if if you told me that over 50 percent of all the people who could own Bitcoin do own it, then I would say, Mike, you're probably right. But we're at seven percent.

That's a very big difference. And that doesn't even count the sovereign side. I think it's a question which Mike would ask, which is and I would ask as well. I agree with everything you just said, Dave, but this is plumbing, right? So we still need the demand. Those people have to, my question is even with Schwab coming in, how many people who really wanted to buy Bitcoin or get Bitcoin exposure didn't find a way outside of their Schwab account?

Yeah, but that's the problem is, is Wall Street has taught us something. Wall Street talks to teaches us when salespeople, it's like you run a company and you have no salespeople. If you don't have salespeople, you don't sell product. I mean, you sell some, you don't sell product. The fact that there are tens of thousands of salespeople that are by the end of this year going to be able to sell it is a very big deal. Right now, you have to jump through hoops to buy it. You still do things. Yeah, I agree.

So really quickly, I just want to point out that the market did just open the queues gap down and are actually making lows and Bitcoin currently is pushing to new daily highs. So we now have the market open and Bitcoin did not drop alongside everything else, which I do find interesting. Mike, one thing I totally agree with you on, but also wanna push back on, is the notion that we have to lop off a zero of all these altcoins that need to go all the way down.

I would just make the argument that if you've been watching, this is Bitcoin dominance. I mean, this thing has been nothing but a steady train upwards. And if you look at most altcoin charts, outside of the largest ones, which, by the way, are still down 80, 90%, you have everything has gone to zero. And I would argue that this time has been different than other rises in Bitcoin dominance

because that used to be in the washing machine market where crypto natives would get bored in Bitcoin, go buy altcoins, then the Bitcoin would go up, they'd go back and do this circular thing. This, to me, when I look at this this anecdotally, but also we have new buyers of Bitcoin and we have people exiting alts entirely to cash because they need to pay their bills. This money this time is not emblematic of altcoins selling into Bitcoin out of FOMO. This is capitulation in altcoins that have largely gone to zero

and new buyers buying Bitcoin. That's all I would say to that. So I agree with the notion that there's a lot of froth, obviously, in the altcoin market. I would just also say that from watching that market so closely, seeing new things that should have been heavily hyped, try to launch and come in under investor FDV that was supposed to be a 10x.

This is not happening right now in the altcoin market at all. I could make the argument that it's already died, which is what you're looking for as a signal. Look at 30 days. This Mike, I just I think this is just data. Bitcoin up three over three and a half percent in 30 days and 7 days, which is interesting. It's basically about the same. Ethereum on a 30-day basis down 17%.

Dogecoin on a 30-day basis down almost 7%. On a 7-day Dogecoin down 4.4%. Bitcoin is outperforming in a very, very serious way. That's just data. Anyway, keep going. Mike. So, I don't disagree with that. I think the key bull markets that I remember speaking about in 2018 in Hong Kong when Tether

was $2 billion, that's a bull market. The proliferation of crypto dollars, bull market. Complete bull market, I think we're going to continue as Bitcoin dominates. I think it can get back to 90%. But to give you my big base cases, I think Bloomberg Economics is looking for a 30% drawdown in the S&P 500. Okay, we've got 10% so far. Bloomberg Intelligence thinks we're going to 4,000 S&P 500. I think we're going to have a normal 50% drawdown in the S&P 500. It's happened two times in the last 25 years. This is the most expensive market in history and got the best rule forever. When you take money out of system, you hit the stuff that's the least, the most vulnerable.

Whole crypto space to me reminds me of what I read about stocks in 1929, when I remember trading in stocks in 1999, what happened with the housing market in 2006. I mean, it's so, it's a complete cult. And speaking, just listen to some of you speak to as you get mad when people disagree with you and you point out facts of the future, which is I View I appreciate your opinions, but just remember things we've pointed out so far in the show is Bitcoin peaked when the Mount of ETFs in Bitcoin reached on a risk-adjusted basis same as gold just a few months ago. Now I just pointed out I've been bound with that one for quite a while. People

always said, oh people are gonna buy gold. Well they're starting to do that finally, but they don't usually do that and Bitcoin's kind of that space. When you keep telling me about institutions coming, I've heard that from Mike Novogratz for a decade. I get it. He always says it sometimes in bear markets. Now I have better ways to really see that. I've always looked at the hash rate. I get you. I remember Scott, I've been on at the hash rate. I get you. I've, remember, Scott, I've been on this firm for a long time.

The point is now I wanna see the beef. Let me see an open interest in futures. Let me see an ETF inflows. I'm seeing the opposite. Let me see that. So it's great to see the bounce today. So I'm like, wonderful. Can you break above that resistance and continue to do it?

I think the next key thing we're all looking for is amount of wealth destruction, very, very reciprocal to the amount of wealth creation. It's not complicated. It's always happened in history, and we're just starting the process, and I think this is part of the bounce. Maybe I'll be wrong. That would be wonderful if I am, but to me, when you see all those excesses and the mean

coins and things that are worth $25 billion that are jokes, yeah, that needs to be purged. That means a whole space is going to get then I think everything is going to get then we're going to get the deflation that is reciprocal to the inflation. Cryptos are just the leading edge of that. But you've got it backwards, Mike. Bitcoin doesn't go up because of cryptos. Cryptos go up because of Bitcoin. I got it. I get it. But so that has millions of dependents that need to go that need Bitcoin to go up. My point is, but dependents can drag you lower. And they have. I mean, the crypto selling the crypto native selling over the last three months has been unrelenting. Yeah. And so it's the the issue is, at what point does that does that stop

and when you think it's over? I don't, that's all. I actually don't. I just don't think they're selling Bitcoin, Mike. I think if we're talking about the crypto natives, I really think that they're all like very optimistic about where Bitcoin's going and insanely bearish on all coins that they're just dumping off every time they need to pay a bill. So what happens is excessive optimism in markets, that's my point.

We just need to purge that and there's still too optimism. We haven't had a normal lower price cure in this market and maybe we'll be lucky and maybe it will just be stopped as great after. So here's a key thing I always pointed about, once you launch ETFs you're in the mainstream. Bitcoin was great when it was insiders like us years ago. I mean I wasn't an insider. I just grabbed on the as Soros says a bubble and joined it. Now I just think it's imploding. It's just giving back and I just don't think it's done. That's not a big difference from your views. The difference is

adoption. I've said it a billion times. No, I don't disagree with that, but it doesn't mean. Bitcoin at full adoption is more than 10 to 15x here. And so these are good. These moves are swiggles. Okay. That and that's a long term thing. Now I'm not you know, I got I added a post where I criticized sailor this weekend because I'm so fucking tired of his metaphysical crap.

I mean, James, you talk to the guy and his friends, but every time he gets metaphysical, I feel like he's doing exactly what Mike said, he's tempting the market gods, yada, yada, yada. It's just, you know, he's not a philosopher king, he's someone who identified Bitcoin as an asset that will reach its potential, and his bet, and basically pushed all his chips, continues to push all his chips into the middle, and he's been able to acquire more chips. That doesn't mean he's a philosopher king, it means he made a smart bet and I think ultimately it's going to pay off. But all the metaphysical stuff is crap. But the simple things that we care about are the denominator, the amount of dollars and the debasement and the fiscal, what's going to happen to our budget deficit? What's going to happen in Europe with Germany going into budget deficits, the amount of monetary printing, Japan, you know, has been at 200% debt to GDP for decades now, literal decades. And the reason they can is because their population was captive and saved in their

postal system, and that's why they have it. They're kind of in a rock and a hard place. And they look at what Trump is asking them to do as you've got to be kidding me because you know, they're they're they're balancing their house of cards But this monetary difference this monetary environment we have the fiat system is in it It is certainly looking rickety right now and because it was based upon globalization It was based upon, you know deflation in goods production by being able to offshore. Those trends ending are massive trends. I mean, I hate to get all forth turning on people, but that's a massive trend. And a lot of the people who have dollars are like

looking at it and saying, well, okay, wait a minute. That's why Bitcoin is up. That has nothing to do with everything else. Just to be clear, Ethereum, the thing that Vitalik said this weekend, in my mind should cut it in half. I'm sorry, I own some, it should cut it in half. The notion that- What did he say this weekend? He said maybe we should move away from the EVM and go towards-

Basically said maybe we were wrong, let's do something else. Right, now you do that, you look at that, and this is where I get all Mike McGlone on them. It's like, well, but it's a 200 billion dollar market cap based upon its potential, not based on its cash flow. Some see cut it in half and some see depression bicycle like the cat that has to be the bottom kind of thing. Yeah, well, it could be, but you know, I look at this and I say, why should it be a 200 billion dollar thing? You know, if it's if its potential is based upon something that we now say doesn't really matter.

So look, we could talk about all this stuff. The TAM to all of crypto is big. I think it's really interesting. The last week, the only other crypto in the top 12 that I'm looking at actually in the top, you know, basically, the only crypto in the top, you know top 12 that is up other than Bitcoin, anything substantively over the last seven days, well, Solana now is because it's been rallying, but it is Chainlink and Solana, which have had incredibly good metrics. BNB has been up a little bit, but when you look at this-

That's good because those are the ones that should be up. Yep, but that's the point. The point is the market isn't necessarily as stupid as it's been. Now, is there stupidity in the market? Yeah. the True though. And those things are crazy. But the point is Bitcoin, there's two things that matter for Bitcoin. Number one by far in orders of magnitude is adoption. And to talk about its price as having peaked, remember inelastic supply, not the same as commodities. The commodity super cycle happens because when prices go up, supply expands because people start investing in pulling the shit out of the ground.

Bitcoin, you can't do that, but it's happening. People are investing in it to try to mine it, but it doesn't change the supply. And so the hash rate is basically a hash war developing. It's more and more people thinking this is serious and investing. Will they ultimately be wrong? Maybe. But the difficulty adjustments in the network and whatever will mean the network is more secure. It's a different dynamic. And that's why it's different. I want to be, I just, I can't stand the fact that people keep saying that we have overoptimism in Bitcoin. I mean, the fear and greed index has been fear or extreme fear now for months. Right? It's not like there's,

you know, we get on these shows and on days like today, we'll go on Crypto Town Hall and people will probably be, oh, wow, look how great Bitcoin is, and they'll be happy. But those are not the people who are putting money into the system. Those are people who are saying, Oh, God, please, dear God, I need to, you know, I need to make, like, like Mike said, they're praying for their bags. Yeah, that's right. And that And that's different.

The actual technical traders and the people on the margin, all are looking or hoping to get 88 or 89 to sell because they figure it will fail at resistance. And I think they'll probably be right because I think we're still in a range until we get more adoption metrics, until we get out of this. The question is, what happens when the administration

decides they need to rescue the markets? That's the question. What happens when liquidity enters the system? God forbid, we spend our time firing Powell and decreasing the independence of the Fed and the Fed becomes a political appendage of the White House. Every at-risk asset will go up.

Bitcoin will go up by an order of magnitude more, I think. I think that could be an absolute face melter because of that I mean James what do you think I mean you know in terms of what man so much crazy Yeah, because you'll have you'll you'll have yield curve control to oblivion. I think that it would be bad. I think that the ultimate crack-up boom followed by potentially, I don't know about hyperinflationary collapse, but a crack-up boom followed by a collapse seems a little at that point, but the collapse will be in the real economy, not necessarily in the fake economy.

I mean, there's a tacit relationship in the worldview that the central banks are not part of the government. That's kind of the belief. And if you break that, then you break the confidence in whatever currency you're talking about. I mean, because you break the confidence in those treasuries, that's the issue. So the key thing I think is timing. We've had the biggest crack-up boom ever in terms of pumping liquid into the system because of COVID. Now we're starting to collapse, in my view.

I like to see it be proven wrong. That's my point is when people like Larry Lepard worried about the next print, we've had the biggest print ever. It's unprecedented the amount of money we added to the system in 2021, 22. Now we're finding the results of that. The rest of the world has nothing

but facing downward estimated GDP revisions. I'm talking about just removing money from the system, but not money from a normal level, from the most expensive US stock market ever. It broke the trend line versus MSCI-X US index that it wrote since 2009. It's breaking down. So it'd be wonderful to see if this highly volatile risk asset that's been highly correlated that was born at the end of 2009 of that massive pump and liquidity will diverge. That's my point is the whole space, I think,

is just heading lower. We're seeing that bounce. So my point is it's very big picture. And then I try to narrow it down to small stuff. And I agree completely with the adoption. I remember I've always said you can't hold gold anymore without some Bitcoin in the space. I just think we're in a bit of a downward trajectory where this is finally we're

going to purge some of the excesses and Bitcoin is going to come out ahead. But I said the exact same thing in 2018. It was going to lap off a zero. That was around 10,000. It bumped up a while. It got down to three. Not a big difference. It was the end of the year. And the difference, like I said, Not a big difference. It was the end of the year. And the difference, like I said, is just remember, I'm just pointing out unbiased views of what happens in highly speculative markets that move a lot and have a lot of dependence and things. That's my point.

Is it just heading that way? So maybe it can stay above 90,000 if the stock market is going down. My point is, again, we barely started this correction. This is replaying to me like 2008, again, which when I was in, again, overweight, gold, and underweight, all risk assets. To me, this is worse because now we have this shift in government, we have this paradigm shift

in tariffs and austerity, and the rest, and we're shutting off, this is a complete shift in the post-World War II order, but to point out something that's really positive about this, the self-correcting mechanism of America is unstoppable. Once we get through this period, by the time we get to midterms, if things aren't really going in Trump's favor, we'll push back, and by we get to the end of his term, it's over forever. But the key thing is, we're talking about some of the most highly speculative risk assets on the planet,

and there's a lot of people speculating long. We all know that. I'm just talking about Purge and for now, and I'm looking for those good signs of that being over and I'm pointing out, I've heard this in many other markets before, I just don't think we've reached that low price cure yet. I'm sorry for people who are overweight trying to get rich but that's the key thing that always happens with human nature. You see other people do it, you hear about other people do it, your wife's best friend's husband did it and then you get overweight and it just flushes you out. So here's the key thing I'll end with. Unfortunately, the only reason I compare Michael Saylor to Buffett is just overweight cash or overweight Bitcoin. I think, unfortunately, we all know when you have people

like him who extol things like taking an inordinate amount of risk and one ask it, oftentimes what history proves is you got to stop them out, you put in a bottom, and then you go up, unfortunately. Okay, but let me just say two things. First, I agree with you that the market got way ahead of itself, the general tech market in particular, for sure. There is a speculative bubble there of sorts. But there's another bubble. And so you talked about the biggest print in history, back in $5 trillion dollars we printed back in

2021 2022 But there's another big bubble that is the reason for that and the reason for that is the debt bubble We are so Financially leveraged and that's not just it's not just the country. It's it's sovereigns. It's banks It's it's individuals. We are so levered all the way through, the amount of leverage in the system, now we're running 120 debt to GDP here. And the reason that that matters is that,

and this is where Larry's point is, and Larry and I disagree on timing of this a little bit, but the reality is we are in this a little bit, but you know, the reality is we are in such a leverage bubble, Mike, that there is no choice but for these central banks to keep the charade going and print to fucking oblivion to keep it going because you have to have more money supply out there to deal with all the debt that you've piled up. You've gotta make those dollars and make those currency cheaper.

And there's only way you're gonna be able to pay down that debt or at least keep up the charade. And so that's the trigger for that to happen. That is very- So it's not binary. Look, it is. The trigger for that to happen, I just one point on that, completely agree with that.

The trigger for that to happen is risk assets going down. Why hasn't the Fed not eased again this year? Because it hasn't gone down enough. Bonds to do it bonds to do it. Unemployment, you'll buy a lot of things. So there's two points that I want to I want to pile on on top of James. First of all, which will come to a 10 or two days. So you got a TLDR point one, it pushes every dollar printed today does significantly less benefit to the

economy than happened in 2008, so it takes more. And point number two is as unemployment and it hits the working class, that's what's going to push this administration toward taking extraordinary measures. It's not necessarily the stock market. The stock market is reacting, but less than you might think to what we're saying is going on in the economy. The result of that is you ain't seen nothing yet. If you think 200,000 and

COVID was the biggest money print in history, my prediction is it's not gonna even be close because it's additive. We haven't taken any of that money out of the economy. It got printed, it got pushed in, it's all all there and that denominator is how you measure all assets and that's a large part of what you've seen A lot of that money when the crypto not sure this really quickly. This is the today's point every Every single dollar of debt that we that we issue is creating less GDP And it started a great financial crisis.

Every single dollar, and this is the problem right here, you're getting diminishing level of real productivity off of the debt, and that means you gotta keep printing, keep printing, keep printing to get that GDP up to where the debt is. That's just reality, and you've gotta get it above to start paying that debt down. Turning Japanese, one point in the 10, you know, yield, there's 1.3%. I think that's

where we're heading with our tenure. Oh, China, 1.6%. Believe me, if you did, the Secretary of the Treasury would be a very happy man. Because that's what he wants. Yeah, he'll get it. Do you know, it's incredible. I could be wrong, but I don't think we said the word tariff once. We're beyond that. We're beyond that. On a macro show. Does that say something? Tariff, tariff, tariff.

Well, it's because we're all looking at it as we who the hell knows what's going to happen, Scott. And the world is basically telling us that the economy is going to be a depression if things don't, if we don't get back to some sort of normalcy. And we're always kind of looking at it saying, well, can they, can they, you know, who knows? the Conferences back 20 some odd years ago. Oh, yeah, he would say I'm not worried about gold I'm not worried old right now if you were running the Federal Reserve. He'd be worried about gold Yeah, and that would be a trigger to have his buddies at JP Morgan To you know, you may want to some futures I don't care if you have it just to do something about it But I don't think that there are forces allow allowed to do that anymore. It's it. It's such a global market. I always kind of we don't have to

get in too much. It's huge global. I mean, us might not like it. But a lot of people in China and India and Turkey like gold. Nasdaq's down 2.4% today bitcoins up I do have to say and Mike, you have said repeatedly over the past few two weeks on all the shows, Bitcoin is showing relative strength. Let's see. Divergent strength.

Divergent strength, yeah, that's correct. That's the Mike word. And today more than ever, because usually those Sunday pumps retrace the minute that the market opens on Monday. If the stock market keeps going down and Bitcoin keeps doing this, yes, that's a very significant sign

of everything you've been saying. We'll see if that can continue. I just use you oftentimes it that's what bear markets do and give people hope him I can't wait till next week Dying I actually think you guys are gonna have to run it without me So I think I would be on a plane to Dubai on Monday. So yeah Come on, you're not gonna have your own little cabin with the I'll try but the the the internet on Emirates is non existent literally doesn't work the entire flight every time. Anyways, guys, what a show 1006 I feel like I'm just start slotting you guys off for the entire Monday and we're

just gonna like a rotate in and out between meals and stuff and just talk for nine hours, eight hours on the markets open what another great show. We will obviously, I'll be back tomorrow with the ArchPublic guys, but another amazing Macro Monday. Dang, I just realized I'm gonna miss it by like two hours. It's so annoying.

But you guys will be here, right? You won't leave our audience. You're better without me anyways. Maybe we'll get Noel in here to civilize you gentlemen. Or we could get Larry in here to civilize you gentlemen. Or we can get Larry in here to uncivilize you gentlemen. Can we get someone else from Bloomberg that's extremely bearish, a fourth like Bear? I'll be the referee.

In case you're watching Larry. We can have Larry on. So Scott, you and I have been talking about doing a show. I think the first one should be me and Larry. I'm ready. Let's do it. All right, guys, we got to go. 10.06. Thank you so much. My Dave has a money printer literally behind his shoulder. He believes in this so much, guys. We will see you next week. Later. Let's go.