The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Crash More? | Here Is When To Buy The Dip

Episode Date: March 12, 2025

►► Sponsored by Aptos, check it out here: https://aptosfoundation.org/ Markus Thielen from 10x Research shares his analysis on why Bitcoin is crashing and identifies key levels where buying the dip makes sense. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond. Markus Thielen: https://x.com/10x_Research? Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► 🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Is this correction over or is it not yet time to buy the dip? Is Bitcoin going to crash more? Today's guest, Marcus Thielen of 10X Research, who you've seen here many times, has a very, very specific idea of a price point for buying the dip still yet to come. We're going to discuss that and so much more. We've also got Texas West Capitol Christopher inks on the backside to tell us what the charts are saying. Let's go.

What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and go ahead and hit that like button that is right down below. The question on everybody's mind, what is the crystal ball saying about the future of Bitcoin prices and certainly about the future of these miserable altcoins that many of us are holding and suffering through? I think everybody can agree that this is one of those moments in time where markets hate uncertainty and the president of the United States

is handing us that in spades. People are confused. All markets are volatile and Bitcoin, obviously trading in the context of that. Can you go ahead and bring on Marcus right now? Good morning. How are you, sir? Doing very well. How are you? I'm good. Here we are with Bitcoin. Let's just go ahead and take a quick look at the market to set the table, I guess. We've got Bitcoin trading at 83,950 right back up around 84,000. I'll take that as a pretty decent price at the table, I guess. We've got Bitcoin trading at 83,950, right back up around 84,000. I'll take that as a pretty decent price at the moment,

considering we traded as low as 76,500. For full transparency, which I've shared, I bought the first dip when we went to 78, not this time at 82 and 79. Wrote it all the way up and back down below my entry, of course, because it's an investment to my longer term stack, and I bought 77,000 on this tip. So that that's kind of where I'm at. Obviously,

Ethereum still just getting annihilated. Solana still pretty much getting annihilated. It's been very, very ugly for the altcoin market. But we've got an article right here more pain to come in crypto Bitcoin headed to 73k. That's the here's when to buy the dip from the title 10x research. This is you 10x research Marcus Thielen is not yet ready to buy the dip headed to 73,000 and they're giving you a hell of a lot of credit for being right that this downturn was coming So maybe you can tell us the context and what you're thinking and how you come up with that specific number Yeah, thanks Scott I mean there are actually a few reasons why we kind of came up with the 73 number.

But, you know, as you said earlier, you know, there's nothing really going on with Ethereum. So nothing is going on in DeFi, you know, revenues, fees on the Ethereum blockchain are or ecosystem overall are extremely low. You know, grave fees, you know, gas fees are just like near zero really. So nobody's really doing anything there. And then really after the Trump inauguration, you know, when the Trump, you know, coin basically took out a lot of retail investors at, you know, really high prices really here, you know, when they really like were squeezed in and then,

you know, the Trump coin is, you know, I guess, 10, $12 today from like, you know, 60, when most crypto exchanges listed it, I think retail has really stepped away. And I think we saw this, of course, in the, in the revenue crash in pump dot fun, you know, in the Solana ecosystem, you know, everything from radium, you know, has really come down a lot. So we don't actually seeing a lot of activities. So while even today, CPI number is probably quite, you know,

favorable really, and gives us some breathing room. So we're not going to make, you know, I guess a dip below 80 K here, but I think there is still nothing really going on because we have, I think two large forces, you know, one, we have, of course, the ETF selling, I think that's probably is going to go ongoing. And then of course, we have the whole noise about the, you know, the Trump tariffs and what it means and the different stages. And I think April 2nd is also like a big day really that the market is looking forward, because then they want to really ramp up the, you know, some of the tariffs really,

right? But now there's a fight with Canada going on, but there are many other countries, you know, queuing up to really, you know, pummeled by M2. So yeah, I mean, yesterday, yesterday we went from 25% to 50% to 25% tariffs in one day. I mean, how is anybody supposed to, if you're a company in the United States or in Canada, you certainly have no idea what the hell to do on any given day. But how are markets supposed to react to news when the news changes every three or four hours and it's such fundamentally important news. I mean, stealing aluminum tariffs against Canada at 50% is just impossible to even price it. But that happening if it did, which it's not now, apparently.

Yeah, and I think the big pricing against China, so there has really been not a lot of retaliation, not a lot of back and forth. I think that's really sort of like the elephant in the room. And that's probably what they're going to tackle in April. So we think there might be a little bit more headwinds just from the news flow stories that we're going to see. Yeah, I mean, you mentioned CPI. It happened today, right?

So obviously this just happened 30, 40 minutes ago. CPI report today, prices rose 2.8% in past year, Dow futures gained. So obviously the market is looking at this in some degree is good news. If stocks are gaining initially, although sometimes that first reaction tends to be the wrong one.

I mean, were you watching this and what the expectations were versus what we got? I mean, this is an indication that inflation is going to be sticky. Is the job well done? You know, what are we looking at? Yeah, I mean, absolutely. I mean, we are very, you know, focused on that number. And of course, you know, anything below 2.9% would have been bullish, which it is, right? It came out at 2.8%. So this is like, you know, minor bullish here right now. But of course, you know, 2.8 is still very high. And I think we have already four cuts priced in by, you know, by the, you know, fixed income markets for this year, which I think is still probably, you know, too dovish, because I think the Fed is going to take

that time, but the number is still way above, you way above 2.0% basically. So they're not going to in a rush to do anything. And I think we slowly getting towards the summer. And I don't think we're going to see a lot of cuts before, none at all basically, and maybe after the summer, because the FED is probably going to wait until really a lot of those inflation tariffs, price hikes is going to come in and we don't even know where we are yet. And I think when we compare the market to 2019, there were a lot of insurance cuts that actually the Fed preemptively took because of the worries that there might be a recession.

But I think this time they're just going to stay put and going to be kind of pointing to what's, hey, inflation is still very high, so we're not going to do anything. So I think the market is a little bit too optimistic around that. So we've obviously got this bump in price that we discussed at the beginning, right? We're to 84,000. For me, I see a lot of bullish signals that we could have bottomed or close. 76,500 to 73,000 is a bit of a rounding error. Right? I mean, you were calling 73 and getting to 76.5 for traders, I would call that a good call. Right? But you're

still I think viewing that we might likely have another dip coming. I mean, right now price, you know, just taking a look at the chart quickly. We're oversold on RSI, there's bullish divergence there for those who care on the daily, but we are struggling right here at the 200 ma, right? And this is going to be a key, I think level for algos and bots and traders to take a look at if we close above or below that. Yeah, if you just look actually, since the inauguration, all the selling has really come during US trading hours, right? has really come during US trading hours. So we're just starting US trading hours.

930 AM dip is like clockwork. Exactly. So I think this tells you a lot that people that are trading US hours, probably US investors, are taking off a lot of the ETF exposure. And we think a lot of this is sort of like the basis trade that people unwinding because sort of the funding rates are, you know, really in single digits, they're really low, there's nobody's really making money on the arbitrage trade. So why not take it off? And we think that's a huge, huge flow right now. And at the same time,

we're not really seeing any inflows through the stablecoin market. So we're not really seeing any on ramp happening. So anything that might happen, in terms of positive liquidity environment or anything else, it's really just not helping. Nobody's really doing anything. And I think it goes back earlier what you said, people actually sitting on heavy altcoin losses. So nobody really has a lot of capital here to just pump the markets. We might get some short term oversold rallies, but I think we still might actually grind a little bit lower into April. Yeah, I'm gonna bring up your slides in a minute.

I just found this one kind of alarming or eye opening, I should say. As Nick says here, if someone had shown you this chart of the best and worst performing asset classes since Trump's inauguration, would you have believed them, right? I mean, he's down 46% since the inauguration. Bitcoin 25, gold's up, euro stocks are up, right?

Which I think a lot and everything else pretty much like down across the board. So it's obviously been a very rocky road since inauguration. And then if you look even further back, obviously, to the election, basically everything has erased all of the progress, right? I know you've got a bunch of slides we're gonna discuss on this as well. But it just hasn't been bullish at all yet.

Yeah, and what we sort of like were pointing out, and of course many people are looking at this kind of Bitcoin versus global liquidity chart. And of course, it looks really compelling, right? But of course, here you have moved global liquidity sort of like 13 weeks to the right, and it would indicate sort of like April 14th that we are sort of like bottoming out. We are relatively close, right?

As you said, we are sort of like a rounding error if you're calling for like 73, so we got to 78 something, right? Or a little bit lower even, but we didn't really stay there, right? So ideally we want to bump around there a little bit or we suddenly have like a huge candle right a huge hammer Which we also have not have seen and that's why we sort of like ideally, you know, we just bump around You know and the other chart of course when you and it's really like how you sort of massage the data You know other chart, of course, when you and it's really like how you sort of massage the data, you know, when you're trying to make the chart look perfect, while you're looking at the six week Bitcoin

change here versus the 13 week change for liquidity, and sort of, yeah, we should be closing in this window of this, you know, down move. But of course, you know, getting in here and suddenly losing confidence when we get to 75, you know, you might also get stopped out. So, you know, we would think better to just wait a couple of weeks probably until you get more of the Trump news out of the way before you probably then jump higher. But we would also be more cautious because when you look at the one year rolling correlation between Bitcoin and money supply, yes, it's mostly positive, but it also is very weak right now. So it only really works, you know, the first chart that I showed,

when you really move liquidity 13 weeks forward. It doesn't really move one by one. So our view is really that the transmission mechanism from maybe favorable money supply is actually not causing the on-ramp. So what you actually want is that stable coin inflows, stable coin market cap goes up because that actually means that money is coming into the market. But right now, no money is coming into the market. And that's really kind of like the freaky thing, despite of course, liquidity could

be potentially positive. And one thing we were looking at, for example, we're not calling for like a massive bear market here, but when you look at 21 and 22, Bitcoin was actually anticipating the change in liquidity. So Bitcoin made the top in November 2021. And then liquidity actually kept on pumping until July the following year because we had still quantitative easing. The Fed was hiking interest rate but still doing quantitative easing and all these things and Bitcoin was trading not on liquidity per se but on the anticipated liquidity and I think right now when you look at Bitcoin, sort of like change the upward move around the December Fed meeting.

This is also when the Bitcoin ETFs suddenly slowed down and were starting to see outflows. So I think big money is actually turning a little bit more cautious really since the Fed meeting because the Fed has told you, well, we are not really dovish anymore and you know, we just have to wait. I wonder what's going to force the Fed to decide to cut. Like there's sort of these theories that Trump is causing maximum chaos and mayhem right now to crash markets to get the Fed to cut.

I don't know. Yeah, I 100%, I totally disagree with that for the reason because you had Trump, you had Latnik and you had Scott Besson and all three were saying we don't care about the market, right? We don't we don't look at the market. You know, the market is just a short term, you know, thing here right now. We don't really care. So I think that's really not the agenda. The agenda is really, as you know, Latnik, I think pointed out this month, it's Fentanyl. And next month is like, you know, other things they want to get rid of, really. And that's why they're pushing it through.

So I don't think they're trying to engineer, you know, a recession because it would be like very costly. I think that's kind of what hurt people. And I think we can go back in time, really, and show that the ETF flows really have really ramped up when the Fed turned dovish, you know, when they did this emergency cut in September. That's when really the ETF flows ramped up. And I think what we're showing with this chart here is actually that based on our calculations, most of the ETF inflows are actually arbitrage flows. And, you know, we came up with a huge number of like 56%. But it's only that outright buying started sort of like in September,

October, you know, towards the Trump election. And that's kind of where you see the error. And that's where you see the bars. These are like real net inflows. But that's only like 12 billion out of the current 34 billion, right? The rest, we think is a lot of arbitrage selling or flows really. And that's why we're seeing this selling now from this unwinding. So do you think we're then going to see significantly more outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs regardless of price right now? Or do you think that maybe that's the you know, two or three billion that we've seen over the past few weeks because it's been pretty astounding outflows, right? Obviously and pretty steady and it I haven't looked, you know, what happened Monday and Tuesday,

but the last three weeks before that were, you know, a billion here, billion there, billion in a day. It's been a lot, but that doesn't, certainly doesn't get us from 12 billion to 34 billion. So there could be a lot more to rewind based on that. So Monday, Tuesday was each, you know, nearly like 400 million, right? So it's like the steady seller there somebody's like keeps on selling

You know I don't know how deep it is gonna go But obviously until this is done, you know the market I think might be under pressure, right? That's like one point and you know one of the the chart. I mean this this sorry this this this chart here is like You know a week or two old, but it really shows you that the funding rate in these sort of like white bars, gray bars versus the basis trade in the purple line, there are below the sort of like the 10% hurdle rate. So right now I think the message is

from the hedge fund community is like, hey, the funding rate has compressed. So the trade is working as we wanted, right? We sold the future, we bought the spot, pocket the arbitrage that we had earlier in last year or for example around the Trump inauguration from the election that period really, they pocketed and I think they're taking it off and I think that's sort of like setting the negative news and the negative sentiment. Yes, they are sort of like market neutral, but I think the market focuses more on the negative ETF selling as a headwind really. I mean, it's quite strange that we're in this situation where we have mostly good news across

the board and price continues to drop. I mean, we get a strategic big, by the way, those are like, that's a, I'm not saying we're in a bear market. That's a bear market phenomenon, right? When good news doesn't do anything to help price. I mean, strategic Bitcoin Reserve was the highest item possible on everyone's wishlist for this market, right? I mean, even just yesterday, we have Senator Lummis for those who didn't see it, saying, let me add it right here. Sorry, Senator Lummis saying that

President Trump is behind her on her bill of buying 1 million Bitcoin, which she refiled basically yesterday, saying that it was time to refile this because she's finally getting the support that she's looking for from senators and from the house. I mean, there was a time when the very idea that someone would say the United States could buy, you know, a million Bitcoin would have said price up to 150,000 in a matter of a week. I mean, we have people literally saying that the United States should issue 2 trillion of bonds to buy hundreds of

billions of dollars of Bitcoin. The government is all over this, right? I mean, the SEC is deregulated against this industry dropped every single case. They dropped the DeFi rule that was so oppressive and such a threat to the industry, now gets bipartisan support being removed in the House and Senate. It's just crazy how much good news we have and we're still sitting here struggling at low 80,000. Yeah, but the market wants evidence, right? I mean, you know, he has been talking about buying the million bitcoins since July last year, right? And so far, no strategy has been put forward, except like a budget neutral strategy, whatever that means, right? I think they need to carve out

some money. I think there are plans, there were plans really that how Latina could start like an American sovereign wealth fund where basically people get taxed for one way or another and that money is going to be used to buy some bitcoins really or some other altcoins. But they haven't really followed through and I think that's why the market is disappointed because there was no evidence that fresh money is being deployed. I mean, just renaming confiscated coins is maybe not the right strategy. I mean, of course, the cynical Twitter, of course, would say, well, just go after the people who hold the Bitcoin and confiscate from them. I mean, we know some people have like 500,000 Bitcoins. I mean, find some dirt on them and then move those Bitcoins

into the reserve. But I think realistically the market is looking for a strategy and so far no strategy has been put forward. And a budget neutral strategy, I mean, I think that's a little bit really disappointed where people were expecting. Yeah. I mean, I found this actually really interesting that I want to go back to your slides, but Bitcoin CME futures spread slides to

$490 undoing the Trump bump in Bitcoin. So we've still got futures obviously in contango, right? This is for I guess we should explain this but the bullish sentiment the Bitcoin market following Donald Trump's election has fizzled out as indicating by the narrowing spread between next month and front month Bitcoin futures on the CME. I mean, in December, this was as high as I think 1700 Yeah, $1705. On December 17. Now it's to 495. This basically means that there's a lot less

optimism. At the most basic level, we're still in contango meaning the futures are priced higher, but people are not expecting a huge rise, which is why that spread narrows. And doesn't this also sort of contribute to the ARB trade theory? Like if you don't have markets massively in contango, there's no yield to gather by playing that carry trade. Yeah, exactly.

That's why no fresh money is coming in. But also because this carry trade has actually compressed to the level where you say, well, now let's take it off because there's only like treasuries. Exactly. Right. Exactly. There's only like a percent or two, you know, juice risk really, you know, in terms of like that you can really milk from the market and, you know, why not take it off? And I think that's what people are doing. And that's why we're seeing these outflows. And I think that's why the market is really struggling. And, you know, nobody's doing anything. And that's why, you know, the argument is also, yes, the CPI was, you know, nobody's doing anything and that's why you know, the argument is also yes the CPI was you know, mildly bullish But if nobody is you know rolling the dice here, then it's sort of like doesn't really matter, right? It's maybe creating another opportunity for these ETFs to really sell into a little bit of more liquidity that we may be seeing today

Yeah, I know you got a couple more slides. I'd love to be able to finish going through those and then a couple more questions So I brought up my screen. So you can look at the ugly Bitcoin chart, Ethereum chart there. But yeah, go ahead. Yeah, just very quickly. I mean, you know, the key trigger for us was this 92,800 level, which was sort of the level where really the short term holders have really, you know, had the average entry price. So once this was going down, Bitcoin was going down

with this level, people were sort of like, of course, freaking out and sort of, oh, I wish I would have sold it. I wish I would have not bought it at the top. So that's why this was a strong resistance. And when you remember a week before Trump tweeted, they're going to buy Cardano and all these things and Solana. we had this big bump to like 94,000. And why did we see another wave there? Because the people who sort of like suddenly were underwater, they were happy to get out. And that's why we thought this is going to be like a big overhang. So we told people to kind of short this level again. And then,

you know, just like the last two slides here, the one is of course, is sort of that we have moved into these like 16,000 sort of like brackets really. And since we failed at this one or 6, of course, that we have moved into these 16,000 brackets, really. And since we failed at this 106,000 level, there was a diamond top formation that usually indicates that we're going to reset to the lower support level, which is the 73,000. But also we have this ascending broadening wedge. And we had literally a textbook example that we have a sort of like, you know, ascending broadening wedge and we had like literally like a textbook example that we have like a double top, you know, this wedge going up and then, you know, broken and the measured move is sort of like the 73,000. And again,

as I was saying earlier, I mean, this is from, you know, all my slides. So don't want to get too many here. But, you know, we have to sell this negative news flow from the tariffs with everything, you know, we are a bit oversold, but I don't think big money is going to come in here and buy and I think we don't really see this in the stable coins, we don't see this from the liquidity side yet and that's I think we still want to be a bit cautious here. Yeah, I mean just I mean any quick look at this chart shows you obviously that you know there's a gratuitous level down here when we broke it in the first place, you're calling it 73 it's 73 835 on my chart and so many things line up with that area.

What makes me cautious that so many people have been calling for that area this entire time because it was the high for March, right? It's never been retested as support. But there's a lot of confluence if we do dip that you're going to be right. And that's going to be the area that it falls to. But like, you know, in my mind, from watching charge for so long, when everyone wants 74, you either get like 69 on a big whip to liquidate it

or you bounce right above it at 76 and leave all those people behind to buy again at 100. You know, so it'll be interesting to see if we get exactly into that area. But I think from the time that you called this dropping into that area, like I said, I call you right. You know? Yeah, let's see if we get there.

Yeah. And so I think we've got CPI, obviously today, I think we've got the tariff uncertainty. Clearly altcoins have been dropping dramatically. I showed that chart to show just how bad ETH has been. I mean, just take a look at this chart. I think the ETH, Vicky, this is like a Shakespearean tragedy. This is ETH versus Bitcoin. I mean, it's like, even when the market's getting a bump today, which by the way, we're now seeing the dip coming into 930, Bitcoin's down 1000 bucks since we started talking or something and just getting

absolutely slaughtered. Now there is support here, but I mean, it's just what turns this around? What makes all coins interesting? Well, the theory was that once Trump becomes president because of his DeFi protocol, his DeFi project that has a lot of easeTH, and they have lost a lot of money with their ETH holdings that they have bought from the market. And Eric Trump has tweeted a lot about Ethereum over the last couple of weeks, really, that it's a great buy. But it's almost like nobody is really using it for DeFi right now. And I think when you look also that Solana has

also been crushed a lot. And we're seeing this, of course, in the token issuance, the meme coin issuance really that have, I think, gone also down by 50% and pump.com revenues also down a lot. So I think we are just in a very, very quiet period here right now, but just not many people are doing much because I think a lot of people unfortunately lost some money with altcoins. And some of the money has, of course, gone back into Bitcoin. And that's why Bitcoin is actually holding up almost relatively well. I mean, we can say 25% down is relatively strong, but it's actually making a new tie for this cycle in the Bitcoin dominance. I think Bitcoin dominance is now at 61%. So I think this tells you that some money is

going back into that. And I think that's why we sort of, if we get into the lower, call it lower or mid 70,000 level, I think there will be more buyers there. I mean, I'm certainly going to be a buyer there. And you know, just going to hold it then for you know, for the next up move, which I think is going to happen then. I just happened as you were talking to look up on chat GPT. So take it with a grain of salt. But I've seen this discussed the world Liberty financials portfolio performance, because obviously we know I reported last week, they had I think 57% ETH and then added another $10 million worth of ETH the day that was reported and another 10 million of rapid coin and some movement and some other

things. What I'm seeing here is that their peak portfolio was roughly mid January. And they were at about $410 million. Remember, they've actually added dry powder to that portfolio and according to this, it's currently at 80.18 million. So that's a drop of, I don't know, 88% in a matter of two months. So anyone who thinks that Donald Trump

is somehow inside trading World Liberty Financials portfolio, they could have bought Ethereum a lot cheaper if that was their intention. Like if they were manipulating the market in some way, you'd think that they would have waited, right? So I think that I'm not saying their portfolio will perform badly.

I'm just saying that one of us, one of us, one of us, maybe just getting annihilated at the Alpoi market. Yeah, but I mean, it's really difficult as you said, right? I mean, people are still asking, you know, what brings Ethereum around, right? I mean, we, you know, we still not hearing, you know, great things from the founder or something, or any like of the upgrades that we're gonna go through,

you know, very soon there's another upgrade coming. You know, so far the upgrades have really been like all really through very soon. There's another upgrade coming. So far, the upgrades have really been all really marginal and too late. I mean, the upgrade we saw literally a year ago, which brought the fees lower, was like six months too late. Because by then, everybody has moved on to Solana. All the meme coin activity, the issuance was on Solana.

And I don't think there's any real use case really on the horizon, unfortunately. I don't want to sound too real sort of like use case like really on the horizon. Unfortunately, I don't want to sound like too negative here, but I think they really have really failed to find the right market niche. And I think it's very interesting with Solana has come also down so much. But at one point it might be like an interesting case study again here because there's so much activity and so many people have become comfortable with it, right? issuing main points there and everything and, and maybe doing some,

some other things. So it's just really be going, I think the next kind of like week or two or maybe three still through consolidation period. But I think then it's sort of like the time to really look for, you know, for some bargains. If I can just buy a bunch of stuff, assuming that I'm not working at McDonald's by then, but you know, if I can just buy a bunch of stuff in April, and that's the bottom and it goes up, I'm perfectly happy with that scenario. Maybe I bought a little too early. I you know, I don't think that buying $77,000 Bitcoin is going to be a bad

idea long term. You know, I think I'm going to be really, really happy with that. And to be frank, I still got some bids out of that 73, 74, but 77 was kind of my biggest bet, just in case. Yeah, I mean, you know, 10% lower. I mean, I think that's sort of like, it's like a daily move sometimes, right? So I wouldn't worry too much about that. So I also, I mean, I'm about to let you go. I keep saying that, but I just happened to look at the Bitcoin dominance chart and

Realized that yesterday was the highest close on Bitcoin dominance. We've had in this entire cycle. So we obviously it spiked Back in February that one huge spike up, but I mean this is it's pretty pretty horrid for for all coins out there Yeah, the money goes into Bitcoin for all coins out there. Yeah, the money goes into Bitcoin. Whatever money there is. Everybody give Marcus a follow. His X is obviously down below. I think it's 10X underscore research.

Is that correct? That's correct. I'm going to misquote. Really great analysis. Great seeing you quoted so much in the media these days and we'll see where price goes. Guys give him a follow. Thanks so much, Marcus. Okay. Thanks. give them a follow. Thanks so much, Marcus.

Okay, thanks. See you next time. Awesome guys, before we move on, I'm reading your comments, they're hilarious. Apparently if you point out that World Liberty Financials lost money, that is a political, a statement on your politics. I would just like it to be clear that I do political statement on your politics.

I would just like it to be clear that I do not identify as a liberal, I do not identify as a conservative, I identify as unaffiliated because I am not mentally handicapped. And I like to make my own decisions without putting myself into one or two buckets where I do not fit because I have a fucking brain in my head.

Anyways, yes, he looks good. He must be must be. Scott must be a devicr- has to be. I am registered unaffiliated. Registered unaffiliated people. But we do have Aptos amazing as a sponsor and very important news coming from them and from our Close friends at bitwise. I feel like bitwise like I work for them at this point

They're so amazing that like we have their guests home so often Matt Hogan and Jeff Park are here all the time I've had hunter I go in crypto town hall and we've always booked some bitwise people because they're so amazing But bitwise has filed for an Aptos ETF. Now if you guys missed it, in November they actually launched an Aptos staking ETP on the Six Swiss Exchange. So a similar product, believe it or not, actually already exists in Switzerland. But we haven't seen bitwise file for so many altcoin ETFs. Aptos being one that they're extremely bullish on

and looking to push. Listen, I have questions in my mind at the popularity of these ETFs as they go down. Like Bitcoin obviously has the first mover advantage and will continue to be big. But I think as this market matures, it's going to be absolutely incredible to have products like this. And I was just really impressed that Bitwise chose to file for this Aptos ETF. I hope that we get it.

Great news for Aptos so you can check out down below obviously everything you have about them. Scoot is anti-Kanye. Yes, if there's a political party that revolves around hating Kanye West, I've been in it since like 2000. Anywho, it's time to go ahead and bring on Chris and he can tell us actually if we're going to 73k. What's up man? How are you doing? How are you? I'm good man. I'm doing politics over here.

Hey, I see that. Sorry. I pointed out that World Liberty's financials portfolio was down. And so I'm anti Trump. Well, you know, you got to go on the limb and say Trump doesn't even know that world liberty financial has a portfolio. So I can't be anti Trump. Maybe I'm just anti like in that case, one or two of his kids who I am actually anti

like at a personal level, college with and, and the, uh, and, uh, the people that they hired. But I, you know, I think that world Liberty financial will do great actually. But yeah, go ahead. Good times, man. Good times. Hey, listen, so, you know, at the end of the day, uh, you know, I was listening in, you know, 78, 73, I mean, I'm, I'm like you, man, you know, that area is it's coming, you know, from the, from the all time high there.

It's pretty much the same thing. if we're looking on the chart here You can see that the yearly pivot showing up here on the weekly. I mean, that's you know, zoom in a little bit here, but That's where we're at at the moment here Um, we have this large Orange if we jump out to the monthly time frame, we have this large orange fair value gap And so, you know, we hit the discount side of that, you know, the pivot sit just below that jumping into the weekly. We have this weekly fair value gap again, just dipping this week into that discount area of that fair value gap.

We're at the low volume node, we've got the pivot. I mean, my God, you know, if it kind of swings down there a few thousand dollars more, it's not really anything significant. It's, you know, it's this area that you're looking for at the whole, right? So what I've looked at here, and I posted this on Twitter here recently, was that the previous two large moves that we had to the downside and sideways movements that lasted a while, right? So we had 2003 here, I'm sorry, 2023 and then 2024. In 2023, again, hovering around that pivot for that year. 2024, the R1 pivot of that year. And here we are in 2025 around the pivot.

So that's the first thing I've noted, right? Second thing is on the weekly here, the RSI pulling back around that 44 level for previous two times here. And here we are again. And even if this was to dip down through this week, as long as the weekly kind of pulled up a bit, again, last week we have the close right here. So we could dip this down this week. As long as the weekly kind of pulled up a bit, again, last week we have the close right here.

So we could dip this down this week and pull back up. Say we hit 73 and then just bounce hard right back up. It still leaves us here. So there's a lot of similarities between right now, what's going on now and what we saw with the previous two pullbacks this bull cycle. And so people that are calling, what's going on now, and what we saw with the previous two pullbacks, this bull cycle. And so, people that are calling, crash coming in or whatever, I don't think so.

Again, I continue to believe this is, looks to me like it's corrective right now. We're getting this weekly retest or this test of this spring here. And usually we'll get a higher low on that we look for a higher low lesser volume Very occasionally you will get a lower low, which is what we got right now So now we need to see how does the weekly end up does our volume end lower than what we ended here two weeks ago?

You know right right here that that's what we're looking for, but this has to kind of stick around this area We can't go like way down here to like 70,000 or something because that's just too far But you can get this test here moving just a bit below that spring which is where we're at right now and still be good So, you know macro wise I'm still looking here. The setup is there, you know, we'll see if we can get it We're jumping in here to the daily again, if we do break down lower. So the first thought was a sweep of that low. Second thought was the S1 pivot here that shows up on the daily timeframe. So it's the monthly S1. It's right around 74,000. So again, 73, 74,000. It would make sense, right? It's just too obvious.

So obvious. Yeah, yeah, I think I think right now, you know, it's just to be a little patient. I think everybody's trying to always catch, you know, the absolute low, or the absolute high. But you know, rarely, that, you know, that's something that even professionals been doing this for 10, 20, 30 years. It's something we still rarely do, right? To catch the absolute low or the absolute high.

You know, the highs and the lows are actually ranges that develop. The absolute high and the absolute low is just an event. And so if you focus on the idea that they're ranges, then that gives you opportunity, right? And also you don't feel so stressed out trying to do it, but we had a good candle yesterday. This is a bullish engulfing candle. Divergence from oversold RSI and stochastic there as I'm looking at it.

Doesn't happen very often on the daily. Doesn't mean they can't build more, but man. Yeah, the only two things I don't like about this candle is the volume wasn't greater than the candle that it's engulfing here. We usually look for that. And we have a large wick here that we didn't overcome as well. I would have felt better had this wick been lower here. We kind of engulf that, but you know, so now here we are, you know, big long story short guys, we're really just trying to get above this 88 488 area

If you can do that with a daily candle That gives us an impulsive breakout and close above that 88 488 That's going to all but guarantee that the low is in you know, whether it's here or drops on the s1 and then pops up So, I mean, you know if you're looking at this whole thing here trying to catch the bottom the the absolute low stop I mean, you know, if you're looking at this whole thing here, trying to catch the bottom, the absolute low stop, just look for that break. If you can do that, man, we're good to go. Now here's the thing. Here's the crazy thing. People don't want to hear this.

So I was looking at this idea that, you know, we've got this three, we've got this four here. Would this be five? Sure, it could. It doesn't make a lot of sense in the grand scheme of things and you know this really kind of looks like you know like a ABC up here but if this is a three and this is a four and wave five usually overextends on bitcoin we get a blow off top right there's a strong possibility this becomes a one and a two here and here's the crazy thing people don't want to hear is because

it gets us all of those crazy numbers. But if this is going to be potentially from here, we'll say up to here. And here, it was one and two or five, that gives us a three up here at 271 for I'll take it five shows over five, six, we're going to 70 I need to change the title. Let's go. take it five shows over going to 70 I need to change the title. Let's go. Bitcoin says Chris inks with definitive certainty. Actually, what I was gonna say was not with definitive certainty. But um, you know, I'm not saying that's where it's gonna go or it has to go there. But what I'm saying is, if we look at this as a one and a two and wave five giving us the blow off top We usually look at that should be at least kind of where we're looking and all of a sudden we get back to those crazy

Predictions, you know, we had a year ago a year and a half ago and people there's no way there's no way You know, so this is like maybe there's a way and You know, it wouldn't be any different than previous Bitcoin cycles other than it would only be like a three and a half x from here Versus a 20x or something that we've had previously So, you know, it's a lot less upside than what we would normally have but you know again people get you know, the the The bias to the to the big numbers, right? And it's scary for them thinking about a hundred000 or 200,000 or 300,000. And so, I just put that out there as some possibility. And of course, obviously, if

we drop down a bit lower here, 73,000, 74,000, it'll bring us down a bit more, maybe we'll only get 355. But if we catch a bid here and we start rallying up, we get above that, that 88, 488 level, um, you know, we need to look at that breakout higher. And really the only thing that would make sense is that this becomes a one and a two of that wave five on the way up. And so, you know, again, when we're looking at the weekly, we'd be bouncing around that sandlot we normally bounce off at. Um, and so, uh, you know, we'll see what happens. It runs us all the way through the R Pivots on the yearly here. So, you know, if we're coming in sideways between the R1

and the pivot, nothing surprises, something I've talked about so many times on your show and with other shows, with my show, is this idea that when you move in sideways between your R1 pivot and your pivot, and you drop down the pivot and you get that as support, you rally back up, most of the time you're going to get through the R4 or the R5 pivot on that time frame. So you know with 355 or 365 being just above R5 often we kind of blow out through the R5. Again, with the way things normally tend to work with PIVX and stuff like that, you know, we'll often get that. So, looks really interesting. I can't say that I'm upset with Bitcoin at all or what's going on here. You know, people

are just kind of, you know, all in their feelings and, you know, impatient. But, you know, again, they were the same thing over here, and they were the same thing, you know, back over here. Hell, they were the same thing this little pullback right here as well. But that's, you know, that's what human beings do, right? We tend to get over emotional. Real quick here. DXY continues to look at it, as I've been talking about. What was that? I cried twice yesterday. Real quick here, DXY continues to look at it as I've been talking about.

What was that? I cried twice yesterday. Oh, anyway. I'm just saying we get over emotional. Yeah, so the DXY continues to look kind of like what we've been looking, what I was expecting. I got a lot of hate, of course, on this web here, talking about this probably being a top area,

pullback from Dollar Bulls. Well, here we are. I mean, you know, we're down from a hundred and 110 to a hundred and three here odds are we're going to continue down again. This whole sideways looks like a large a large flat here. So coming down this is going gonna be an A or B, see you'll get us down there mid, low 90s, potentially even lower.

And so locally here, kind of looking for maybe getting a bounce here, but kind of getting down to this S1 pivot from the yearly, it shows up on the weekly and monthly timeframes at about 102 and a half, and kind of get us a bounce up, a drop down, a bounce up and then looking to get us our five waves finished here just below 100 to give us a wave one and we'll get a wave two and then three, four and five. So overall, you know,

the dollar should continue to weaken versus other currencies, which by the way, if you played the euro long against the dollar here, man You had an amazing week last week up almost five percent Uh and continuing a bit further into halfway into this week. So Um, it was a good play You guys are talking about ethereum. Uh, so, you know, i'm taking a look at ethereum here to me uh, it looks like we've probably got a um, at Ethereum here to me, it looks like we've probably got a 1, 2, maybe a 3 with a flat as a 4, as a diagonal here, coming up to a 5. So from the low we're at, you can see that the weekly

RSI here is almost oversold. So you know, we could get a little bit lower right now, we're bouncing here here at the low volume node which would be expected. If we continue down lower wouldn't be surprised to see maybe 1,500 here get to this next low volume node. But based on this current height right here we'd have about a wave 5 pattern target up there around almost 7,000. Doesn't mean it can't overextend and go higher, but right now this really kind of looks like a diagonal coming off here. So we'll see how it plays out overall. H-bar is interesting. Again, this is three waves up,

which means we should be looking for five waves back to if it's a flat. So three waves down, three waves up, which means we should be looking for five waves back to if it's a flat. So three waves down, three waves up, five waves down. Are we potentially complete right here? One, two, three, four, five. Right there, a little volume node. I think it's possible. It looks like we got five up.

Looks like we've got three down really deep though. So we wanna be careful, but not really hating it at the moment. If we jump in a little bit closer here, you know, I would be, I would start looking for a potential reversal around this 0.1964 area, but potentially lower than that,

but at least around that area is where I'd start looking for a potential reversal to have on that. Again, like everything else, you know, these pivots are really kind of important here. Big picture is, you know, daily candle, impulsive breakout and close above the pivot here that shows up on the daily time frame at 0.234 would signal that that low is likely in and we're headed up from that. And, you know, that would mean that we're likely going to break out above here and continue up above 40 cents

there. XCN was another one we did really good out here over at the Trading Academy. We had a couple of good trades in this. We've got this pullback. It's a 38.2 pullback right now. Looks like a fourth wave. What was that? I don't even know if this, I know what this one is. I'm trying to remember what XCN is. It's a 38 to pull back right now. It looks like a fourth wave. What was that? I said, I don't even know if this, I know what this one is. I'm trying to remember what XCN is. It's funny. Oh, I don't even know. I just know the charts look great here.

We did some good stuff. It's the beauty of charts. Yeah, so we got a 38 to pull back here. Looks like we've got a wave four pull back. We had again, a bullish engulfing candle. You know yesterday this one did have greater volume than the candle that's engulfing. I like that almost engulf the wick as well. But you know again daily candle impulsive break and enclosed above this.022 should indicate that that low is in based on the height of this pullback here. That would give us target. Actually I think I've got it over here. Yeah there we go. Oh about a pattern target of about 0.12815. So you know obviously significantly big push even

once you're getting out above the this kind of two cent area here. Big target on XCN there. getting out above the this kind of two cent area here big target on XCN there super USD has been another we've been watching for a bit once again here pullback looks good we kind of hit this demand in here yeah it's kind of make it or break it right there yeah yeah exactly so we're you, we're really interested in does this, you know, can we get this continuation? I love the volume. You can see here between the the two last candles here, we had a spike of volume on the first one. We have this large supply spread here close near the lows, okay, supply, control next. Next candle at support, Doji closes higher than it opened,

bigger spike of volume. So more effort, absolutely no result for supply here on that low candle. That's what we like to see, especially with support. So looking for this to kind of rally up here. You know, again, if you want to take the bigger picture daily candle impulsive breakout and close above point six nine one Should indicate that we're likely heading out above this 2.28 2.3 area up there, you know and heading out higher, but if we zoom in a bit here Let's get down the one hour here It looks like we may be printing a diagonal here It looks like we may be printing a diagonal here,

which could or could not maybe be done here, but we'd be looking for this price to get caught in this WIC right over here from Monday on the one hour. And so get caught it, usually in the lower half of that. And then I wanna see a pullback down here, at least to about that point 0.41 area Potentially down here to the s1 pivot at about 0.4. Oh and at that point I'd really be looking for reversal on that and then all of a sudden you have a run up to this Pivot showing up on the hourly here. So if we did something like that and

Pull the down there or even if we're like, say, done around this area, they get you five waves right up around there and things start really looking good at that point. So, um, super's another one I've been watching swell looks interesting. Uh, again, we have this, uh, a large. Descending resistance coming down here. So that pivot, you want to see a impulsive daily candle breakout and close Descending resistance coming down here. So that pivot, you wanna see an impulsive daily candle breakout and close above 0.015. Doing that should indicate that we at least kind of get up

here about 0.05, but probably gonna break out higher. Right here again, bouncing off that S1 pivot. You know, again, things we wanna see. Bullish engulfing candle, just about it actually opened up a little slightly higher than the low there But you know the setup we're watching the setup here. Are we Going to set up to get that breakout? And so, you know sarcastic rsi just getting started here rsi Basically printing some bullish divergence

And that support. So again, looks kind of good there. And finally dot, we all know dot, right? Let me see here. Again, possible five waves up, really deep pullback though. So we have to be really careful, but we're kind of coming back right to the same kind of support level right there,

right there at the S one pivot. We've got some bullish divergence building up on that potentially reset and oversold daily candle and pulse of breakout and close above 5.06 should indicate that that low is in and we're going to break out above a, what is this swing high up here? 11.65.65, you know, and then head up higher overall. But man, you know, this is, I don't know, you know, this is pretty close. We can maybe finagle a five out of this and a three on this pullback maybe.

But it's so close here. We definitely want to see that break out there to kind of get us going. So, you know, again, as we've been talking about, you know, time after time, it's all about, you know, these alts are all kind of looking the same, generally speaking, not every single one of them, but in general, they're tending to look this way. So if we can see some of these daily pivot breakouts and closes, then that should signal that the alts are probably ready to rally. Does that mean all season? You know, again, I think people are getting too caught up in that. and I'm not saying it won't, but it may not. So when I look at all these charts, though, the risk reward at like key support. If it breaks, you just let it go. Small loss.

This is kind of where, uh, where you take your shots. It looks really good. I gotta run. I gotta, I gotta thank you, Ted, man. Thank you, Chris, so much. Everybody give TX West Capitol a follow. Otherwise we will see you tomorrow and Christmas next week. Thanks, man.

Take care. you, Ted, man. Thank you, Chris, so much. Everybody give TX West Capital a follow. Otherwise, we will see you tomorrow and Christmas next week. Thanks, man. Take care.