The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Drop To $55K? Get Ready For Wild Crypto Swings!

Episode Date: August 2, 2024

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And analysts are saying that Bitcoin will inevitably drop to $55,000 now that it's trading around $64,715. That's a lot of volatility. That is the wild crypto swings in the title. But if you take a look at legacy markets at stocks, VIX hitting multi-year highs, absolutely pumping, meaning that volatility is back across the board. We're going to talk about that, but also dig into the five most impactful stories of the week. Don't sign off now. NLW is not here. He is away. So you're going to have to deal with me ranting on my own Friday 5 today.

But it's still the Friday 5, and we're going to get it done. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. And please ignore the fact that my producer just randomly put his self onto the screen. Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter. You got me. I wish NLW was here. The Friday Five is one of my favorite days of the week. Every single time we get it done. We missed it last week because I was in Nashville. He takes all the pressure off of me.

I just kind of ask questions and add color commentary. And he does the deep diving into all of the topics that matter. And there are a lot of topics that matter these days. You may remember there was a time where we were struggling through the Friday Five. We were like, man, there's nothing to talk about. It's the dead part of the summer, blah, blah, blah. Not anymore.

Not any more at all. Now we have huge news every single week, and it seems to be relentless and impactful. Not necessarily on price, but impactful for the future. I've mentioned so many times, I said it on Market Mavericks yesterday with Gareth and Mike McGlone. I was like, I see nothing but tailwinds here, man. All good news. I got something on my lip. All good news. Bullish and scary. I'm scared because I'm so bullish. And Mike was like, yeah, that's when you short everything and you look for putts when everybody's bullish and says there's nothing but tailwinds. But fundamentally, I see politics, legislation, regulation, all thawing,

situations improving. I see massive potential unlocks coming for the ETFs that we'll talk about in a bit. There's just a lot to like right now about what is happening in the market. So first, listen, the first story is kind of an honorable mention. We're going to start here and just talk about the market in general. We've got Bitcoin down about 3.8% on the seven days. That's not bad, guys. Flat 24 hours, up slightly on the hourly. Slight underperformance from Ethereum in the last 24 hours. But last week, Ethereum surprisingly has actually outperformed Bitcoin. We know that it's been slaughterhouse five for altcoins, Red Sea, Sea of Death, Murderer Blood, 52-week lows, hell on earth, horrible going to zero. We're all going to have fun staying poor. Not great in the altcoin

world. You'll notice if you read my newsletter, I don't really share anything about altcoins anymore. Kind of indifferent. Don't think it's that part of the cycle. If we get that cycle again in the fall or going into the winter, we can worry about it. But right now, totally and utterly unavoidable in a Bitcoin world where we have so many fundamental things happening for that asset specifically. And no reason to believe that those funds that come into Bitcoin, specifically at ETFs, are going to trickle down. Can't sell your ETF and then buy Cumrocket or smoked chicken fish or whatever the new meme is in your IRA. Can't do it. Cannot do it. So here we go. The title of our stream based on this article from Coindex.

Bitcoin traders eye 55K amid US stock sell off. XRP leads losses in major cryptos. Kind of disingenuous. XRP was massively up ahead of others. You expect the thing that goes up to be the one that falls the furthest to mean revert when you see these corrections. But traditional markets from the US and Japan saw declines across major indexes and stocks with the tremors seeping into the cryptocurrency market. I disagree with that. I think that's a stupid take.

We know that Bitcoin has been traveling sideways, doing nothing like gold, doing nothing like stocks, totally has been uncorrelated, which I absolutely love. Yeah. Let me kill this guy. Bye. Right. Even if we're not performing as well as stocks, I still want Bitcoin to be uncorrelated so I don't have to hear about the correlations that don't exist. We know that Bitcoin is a beautifully uncorrelated idiosyncratic asset that everybody should have in their portfolio. But Bitcoin was dropping for a couple of days. Two days ago, stocks had their best day in months. Yesterday, had their worst day in months. So I don't see how that's correlated. But YOLO, here we go on the narratives. They're saying that if we lose the 50 and 100 MAs on Bitcoin, which is this blue

line, 50 and the red 200, excuse me, that we can see a lot more pain heading down as far as 55K. That's kind of the lows down here where we just were. I mean, we were there a month ago. Is that really so bad? Is that really so bad? And guys, I mean, if you take a look at this, well, that didn't work at all. Let's try that again. Pulling Fibonacci levels, we have this move that was very fast in less than a month from 53 up to 70. We've only retraced about 38, 40%. Not a big deal. Not a big deal at all. And you can draw this range in the biased way like this, pulling the lows here, and then you kind of have the mid range right here, which means we're sitting on that EQ basically perfectly. Or you can go back

to how we would have drawn it back here and say, oh, we're kind of chilling in the bottom half. But regardless, guys, this is a whole lot of chops still trading well above the 50 and 200 MA. So I don't think we need to start talking about losing it when it's acting as support right now. But if you are watching Legacy Markets, this is the story. This is the VIX on the weekly. Just two weeks ago, it was at 10.62, now up to 21.07. I think average for the VIX is about 19, but this is a massive spike in volatility in markets. And take a look at the Qs, which is the NASDAQ. You had this huge down day, 475 spread down to 456, and now pre-market 449. So losing the 50 MA there. A lot of pain in legacy markets.

And what's Bitcoin doing? Well, it's kind of up today, right? Flat. But I mean, it was, you know, when I started looking this morning, we were down around $64,000. So I just don't see the argument there. We know that rate cuts are coming though. And that seems to be the big story everybody's watching. I've long told you how all recent rate cuts have been a bad thing, but historically not that bad. I dug in pretty deep, actually, in my newsletter today, if you guys read it. It's free, right? But you can see this chart right here showing what happens in the first year, third year, fifth year after rate cuts. Like I said, in my lifetime, in 2001, the internet bubble, then the Great Recession, two very terrible years,

and the Fed pivot usually preceded the damage. And that's because the Fed usually pivots when something is broken. So as I wrote in this newsletter, the idea isn't whether the Fed pivots or not, it's why the Fed pivots or not that's really going to be the story this time. The reason for the Fed rate cut probably matters more than the rate cut itself. So if we start to see this data coming in, which it is that the labor market is softening, manufacturing had its worst print in a very long time, any of those things happen, probably dump time. If they just say, hey, man, market's good, soft landing, YOLO, then it's going to be probably better. So that's what's happening with Bitcoin. I think it's sideways. Tom would like you to know that he is bored. Willing to make a bet that Tom will still be here in 25 minutes or 20 minutes when I'm finished

complaining about his boredom. I, for one, generally avoid things that bore me. And there we are. So let's start digging into the actual stories of the day. And one of those, of course, the never ending conversation about inflows and outflows. This time, though, we get to talk about inflows and outflows of Ethereum spot ETFs rather than Bitcoin spot ETFs, because we know the Bitcoin spot ETFs have been by far the most successful ETF launches in the history. And there's nothing that anyone can say or do about it, whether they want to be haters or else. Tom, you still here? Probably not here. Anyways, on August 1st, by my account, that's yesterday, the Ethereum ETFs recorded their lowest daily net inflow since inception, 26 million.

Initial hype faded quickly with 653 million in outflows recorded in the four days after launch. But those outflows are not from the Ethereum spot ETFs. They're from a Ethereum spot ETF. And that is ETH because Grayscale has been back in the corner, tattered rags, smoking crack all year, giving us insane fees that no person in their right mind would ever pay. 1.5% on GBTC when everybody else is around 20 bps. And they came in at 2.5% on ETH-E. 2.5% when everybody else is giving waivers, no fees, 0.2, 0.25. Would you rather buy BlackRock for a 10th of the price or hold or buy ETH-E at 10 times the price? Seems pretty easy. So we've seen over $2 billion of the $8 to $9 billion in total AUM of ETH-E flowing out. To me, that says, big surprise. ETH's actually doing really well. You guys may remember,

you may, we talked about a few times, but you may remember that when Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved, we had this little pump from 47 to 49 for like an hour. And then Bitcoin slowly over the next few weeks, went from 49,000 down to 39,000, over 20% drawdown. ETH's been trading now for two weeks. We have not seen that drawdown. It's actually relatively keeping pace with the broader market and with Bitcoin in general. With over 2 billion in outflows from ETH, you would have expected Ethereum to sell off massively, and it hasn't. It's pretty wild. That means there's a ton of demand, and we've had net inflows to that point

with every single other one of these products outside of ETH-E. Remember, grayscale in the corner. They're like, yo, guys, we're so paid. Let's do crack and party. Smoking crack, 2.5%. They hate money. They hate fun. They hate you. Here from Nate Garassi, in one week of trading, iShares, Ethereum, ETF, black rock, already in top 15 inflows of all ETFs launched this year. Top 15 out of approximately 330. Top four inflows, all spot Bitcoin ETFs all the way. So it's basically all Bitcoin. And then ETH comes in. And this is one of the eight top 15 inflows.

Just to show you how successful and powerful these products have been for the crypto market. It is relatively insane. They are doing exceptionally well. And we thought that they wouldn't. And none of that really matters because we know what's coming. You guys should watch my interview with Matt Hogan that I did earlier this week. God knows, Tuesday. Can you remember the days?

I recorded seven different shows yesterday. I can't remember when, what I did. Running on fumes. But Matt Hogan said we have about 30% of all money that could theoretically access these financial products, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, giving access, having access. The rest is waiting for the Morgan Stanleys and UBSs, the wirehouses of the world, to allow trading. And that takes time. It's actually happening faster than usual. And we believe that will happen in the fourth quarter. So what happens when 70% of the potential capital that literally can't buy these things right now starts to get these approved, do their due diligence and buy? We're going to see trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars flowing into these products. It is going to happen. What that will mean for price should go up, but we never know, depending on how much selling pressure there is. But absolutely massive news, guys. Absolutely massive. It is coming. So these products will do exceptionally well. I think Bitcoin will continue to do better, but they're doing well. I mean, looking at the ETH chart, you had this kind of channel and you bounced here and YOLO, yay, whatever. Same kind of range that Bitcoin had, right? I mean, you could draw this one again, right there, kind of towards the bottom of the range. It doesn't matter. But below the $1,500,

so ETH, USD, not that great. But ETH, BTC, kind of sideways through all of this. Had the pump when we saw them approve, had a little dump, and then kind of bounced back, still above when they're approved. I mean, it's fine. This is really muted, non-negative price action. It is fine. Now let's talk about things more surprising than the actually decent performance of the Ethereum spot ETFs. And that is this little gem right here. Tron surpasses Ethereum, 1.42 million revenue in 24 hours. Tron revenue surpasses Ethereum since July 23rd, with 1.42 million generated in 24 hours compared to Ethereum's 844,276. And what you might not have noticed as well is that it's also smashing Solana.

And that's even with Solana having meme coins launched like 500,000 a month with a whole bunch of wash trading and fake volume as a result of that. Tron, TRX, Justin Sun, announcement of an announcement. The guy who people thought was in jail with Jack Ma and that he was dead and that he was an AI avatar coming in from a live stream in front of the Golden Gate Bridge. Tron, Justin Sun, has just been absolutely crushing it. And people are surprised. Like, how could Tron possibly be performing so well and have so many transactions, have so much fees? The answer is very simple, guys. And I say it over and over and over again on the show. As much as toxic Bitcoin maximalists would love to tell you that people around the world, which is happening in some places, are rushing in mass as fast as they can to buy Bitcoin, to preserve their wealth

and to save their money. No. 99% of the people in the world want dollars when shit goes down and shit is going down everywhere. Remember when Bitcoiners said, hey, Mille is getting elected in Argentina. It's going to be amazing. He's going to make Bitcoin a global reserve asset. What did Mille say? He said, we're going to dollarize because our currency sucks. Our currency is off in the corner, smoking crack with grayscale. Their currency sucks. They rush to the dollar. Maybe they get to Bitcoin eventually, but that would actually mean the dollar ceases to be the global reserve asset, which means we'll be living in Mad Max and you guys can paint your faces white and be my army riding our semi to gas town. Nobody wants that. I would like a peaceful transition to Bitcoin being a global reserve asset. That would be cool.

But we are still looking at a dollar standard. And that means that people in the world who can't access dollars but want them because you have to go down to the black market, go in a shady back room and get a 3X exchange rate that's worse so that you can get access to some dollars. They just use stable coins. And stable coins, most people are not fundamentally aware of the differences between them. They're not like, oh, Ethereum's a stronger network. Oh, Solana's fast and it's cheap. It's got dog coins. No, what they do is I live in Argentina. You live in Argentina. I say, dude, I need to send you 10 bucks. Download this app. Just like if it was PayPal or Venmo or whatever, how are you going to do it? They download a Tron wallet

and I send it to you. It's cheap, it's fast, and it's going viral. And that's why Tron is making so much money in revenue. Also, Justin Sun has floated a stable coin with no gas fees because the gas fees would be paid by the yields accrued by the stable coin. We know USDT, Tether just did over another billion in a quarter. They're just crushing it because they just invest in treasuries, which have high yields, making a ton of money. Taking a bit of that money, paying for the gas fees, free stable coin transactions. That's also been a part of Tron's rise. It's not an endorsement of Tron. It's not saying it's great. You should do it. None of that. All it is saying is reality. Tron is fast, cheap, and people are using it. And it is the chain of choice. And I was literally

today's years old when I looked at a Tron chart the first time in ages. Tron is like near an all-time high, guys. In USDT, I don't even know what a Tron chart versus Bitcoin looks like. I would venture to say that it means it has to be wildly outperforming Bitcoin, which I don't think many are. Not really. Well, Tron, really. I remember that pump. I was in that. That was fun. Okay, wrong. But Tron, here on Binance, highest was around 17 something cents. It's at 12 cents. But in 2020, you could get Tron at 0.0069 cents.

Beginning of 2023, it was 4 cents. Now it's at 12 cents. So in a market where things have been dying quietly, people need Tron to pay gas fees. Tron has been pumping. The next story that was impactful this week, I highly suggest you just listen to yesterday's stream because James Murphy, who's an actual lawyer with an actual law degree and not just playing one on YouTube like the rest of us LARPing influencers, he broke this down for

us. But SEC backs down on claiming Solida, Matic, and other tokens or securities in the Binance suit. As he explained, we had some bad takes coming from commentators on X who were saying, Solana is no longer an unregistered security. We're good, guys. YOLO Solana ETF. The reality was that the SEC has learned some hard lessons over the last year. Just over a year ago, they were able to just charge Coinbase and Binance and anyone else that they didn't like and passively name a whole bunch of assets, which seemed like they were throwing darts, like which 10 today, as unregistered securities.

But they never went after the people, the actual project who created these. They never actually opened suits against them for being such. They just passively named them. And if you remember when they did that, they wrecked the price down 30, 40% in a day for these assets. Well, since then we have the Ripple suit, the Grayscale suit, a whole lot of pushback from the federal court system. And we also have the Chevron deference decision from the Supreme Court, which says that regulators like the SEC can't actually use the Howey test without the court approving it, basically, broad strokes. But they have a less appetite for this. And for them to move forward in this Binance suit, they would have to do discovery on every single one of these. And none of these

people are even present in the suit. It just makes literally no sense for the SEC at this point in the actual lawsuit to pursue this. So they're not saying they're not, they're just saying it's not going to be a part of this lawsuit and they're not going to go down the rabbit hole of effectively litigating against 10 of these things in the process. But still, but still, I will take any story like this as a massive L for Gary Gensler. The guy just keeps losing. He can't get away with the shit that he thought he could. And I'm here for it. And you guys should be too. It's just good news every time you see this. Bottom line, we're not going to have to worry about this, at least for a while. And we will see what happens if we get a change in administration.

Speaking of some wild news that happened this week, Senator Cynthia Lummis announced this bill for U.S. Treasury to buy one million Bitcoin worth $68 billion. You can see it right here, how she broke it down. And then, of course, you can see the actual bill. This real bill, floor of the Senate, to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset, just like gold, just a novel way to pay for it without printing any more money. It would be ironic to print more money to buy Bitcoin. That would be silly. But basically repricing gold and using existing assets to flip them into Bitcoin and put it on the balance sheet. Now, it was

floated as an idea that Trump would say this. But what Trump said was, we will just not sell the rest of the Bitcoin we have. We'll add it to a strategic stockpile. He came up short of saying strategic reserve assets. He did not mention buying any of it. But Lummis came out right after him at the conference and proposed this bill, which you have to presume in context, he would support. Of course, the United States government then sent a whole bunch of that Bitcoin that he's talking about holding and lit the world on fire because people thought the United States was just reacting to his speech and deciding to sell it. I don't know if that's happening, probably moving into custody,

but really interesting timing nonetheless. But can you imagine if Bitcoin becomes a strategic reserve asset? I don't think this passes. I think this is far... Bills are proposed all the time. But the very fact that this is being proposed and other central banks and governments and treasuries are on notice that this could even be a thing has to have them paying attention. I've talked about this, but we've had retail FOMO, a bit of institutional FOMO. Imagine central bank or treasury FOMO. Like, oh shit, the United States is adding this. Every central bank now has to, just like they did with gold or any other. This is like million dollars of Bitcoin if this actually happens. I don't see it happening anytime soon. Maybe under Trump, we really start talking about it, but wild. And Trump likes the idea of

a federal Bitcoin reserve. Don't laugh. Nobody's laughing. Shut up, Tyler Cowen, laugher. Bloomberg opinion columnist, the idea of government fund invested in cryptocurrency may sound foolish. There are reasons for the US Treasury to consider adding Bitcoin to its portfolio. That's right, because it will actually help the debt and inflation. So the Lamas bill has been proposed. Will it happen? I have no idea, but holy crap, did you ever think that we'd be seeing bills like this proposed in the United States Senate? No freaking way.

Robert says, I can't tell if you're being serious, you're giving instructions, but you're giving in a way that I don't know if you're being sarcastic. Welcome to the show. I'm a very sarcastic person, but I don't think I'm giving any instructions. I'm sarcastic, but I don't think I'm giving any instructions. I can teach you how to build something from Ikea. And finally, guys,

so the last story we have here is just we had Bitcoin Nashville. If you guys didn't see them, I did reviews of the two days I was in there. I live streamed the speech for you guys when Rumble and YouTube went down for the Bitcoin conference. You can find that somewhere deep on my ex. But this was the biggest conference we will likely ever have, not necessarily in terms of scale, but in terms of impact and importance. You had a former United States president, likely, maybe, to be the next United States president. Looks like, if you believe the polls, that it's about a 50-50 heat, which is why I say maybe that's not an opinion. Just based on polling, don't get mad at me. I don't have TBS. Leave me alone.

But yeah, I mean, how do you get bigger than the president speaking as the keynote two weeks after an assassination attempt at your conference? And really, it was such a wild... This is Mike Germano, who is a good friend of mine, who's one of the organizers of the conference. It was funny. When he walked up to me, we were just walking the floor, interviewing random people. And he literally just gives me a hug and goes to nap on my shoulder

because he was dead and done. And then I was like, hey, now you need to do an interview. But he gave us some insight as to what was likely happening there. And we have another video that's going to drop in the next couple days of the entire weekend everything emmy and i did there karate combat partying at the club with jake paul all kinds of wild stuff um so that should be fun including like on the spot interviews with ben askren max kaiser i interviewed rokhana i interviewed bill miller like tons and tons and tons of content that I just have not had time to get edited and out. But this Bitcoin conference,

I think was the tipping point for our asset class in the United States. There's no way that the anti-crypto army can win when they see how politically unpopular that is and how politically popular now Bitcoin is. So on the biggest stage, Harris is trying to reset. Everybody's talking about it. And nobody really thinks that we're a bunch of losers and frauds anymore. I think that right now we are winning. The industry is doing exceptionally well. It was an incredible, incredible eye-opening five days. And it's just amazing. It was amazing. We had so much fun, slept like three or four hours a night. It was wild, really wild. Got a lot of takes over here. Duarte says F off. I don't know if he's talking to me,

but cool. Bear market started. Hey, if you're that emotional about your opinion on the market, then you're going to do real bad. Somebody said something good. I'm so emotionally bearish that I'm telling them to fuck off in the comments. I love your guys' comments. Just kind of reading through them right here since we have time. I'm basically done. Wits asked, when's vote on Bill? I don't think anytime soon.

She doesn't even have a co-sponsor yet, actually. Gary says, maybe in the minority, but I prefer Scott's show when he's solo. I used to do this every day. I would kind of do stories and I would share the chart with the story and we'd break it down. But that requires a lot more preparation. And I really like to put all of the stress and pressure on my guests. What else do you guys got over here? Can I blow the horn on the Mad Max semi truck, please?

It'll sound like this. When I was doing solo shows, I used to use those all the time. Yeah, see, love Mondays with Dirty Mike and the Boys. Mondays are by far the most popular show. I know that. I know that. Tristo says my ADHD is on point today. Welcome to the party. I was literally spent my morning trying to make theoretical plans to become a travel vlogger. I tweeted it and people thought I was kidding, but if I'm going to go to all these places, why not travel vlog

and get some really free, nice hotels? It's an extra content. Everyone loves my wife. She's in these videos. She's in these videos. Look, there's one of them. See, at the beginning of this one, the editor, like she gave her like a model. You know, she used to be, she actually used to model. So it makes sense.

But she like got the full model walk here. I was like, dang, he captured a moment. See, here she comes up the stairs in slow motion. See? And then at the end of it, if you guys didn't watch it, I don't have the audio, but she literally was like, somebody came up to me and said, they love your podcast. It's amazing. And they were breaking down all the details of this one podcast. And they asked me, who was that guy he was talking to? And then he was like, I don't watch any of this content. It's cool. That was cool. One day, one day, try to get her on the show. She just, she just doesn't care. She just doesn't care. I want her to care. That's all I

got for you guys today. We will be back of course, with macro Monday on Monday. I think tomorrow we're going to drop the interview with Max Keiser and maybe the recap of the entire conference. And then Sunday, I just recorded two banging podcasts this week. One with Sheila Warren, who's basically in charge of policy everywhere globally. Incredible.

And one with Urien Timmer, who's the head of director of global macro at Fidelity. Guy, man, guy is a legend. I'm just having a great time. Yesterday, like I said,

I did morning show, then spaces, then recorded a thing for the streets. Then hour long podcast at noon, recorded another street interview, three o'clock market, market Mavericks, 3 o'clock Market Mavericks, another interview with Dennis Porter for the street. Not fucking around right now. Not getting paid for any of it. But hey, good times. That's all I got for you guys today.

I will see you on Monday. Peace. Let's go.