The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Fall To $20K? The Real Inflation Rate | Macro Monday

Episode Date: January 29, 2024

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1  James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish  Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker   ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #macromonday  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:05 Packed week 1:50 Oil market 3:20 Monetary vs Fiscal  7:08 A lot of room for treasuries to collapse 10:00 Is the US in a war? 11:50 China - Evergrande 16:00 Who is running the US? 21:00 Bank reserves & lowering rates 26:25 Inflation - what are the real numbers 29:11 Inflation is insane 34:00 Bet: Gold will outperform Bitcoin 36:40 Bitcoin is a hedge 38:37 Market will crash right after the elections 42:20 Tech & financials are too big now 45:30 Bitcoin 52:00 What will drive the price of Bitcoin? 56:00 Bitcoin hashrate 1:00:00 Bitcoin ETFs  The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

We are once again hearing calls for Bitcoin to drop back into the 20,000s, at least into the low 30,000s. Are we all a bit overexcited with the claims that this is a massive bull market? Is there another retracement yet to come? We also have a lot to talk about since it's Macro Monday. We've got oil prices spiking. We've got Chinese problems ever grand, of course, liquidating and a whole lot of news and inflation numbers coming this week. I'm not sure an hour is going to be enough, so let's get Let's go. Mike McGlone. Guys, I was just saying before we started here that this is one of those weeks where I open up on Monday morning, the Bloomberg key events this week to look for my recap of what's happening. And it doesn't even fit on one screen. It's like everything comes together in a single week. Bank of England, we've got FOMC, a million other things here from multiple countries. How do we even summarize this? I'm

hoping Mike's just going to tell me it's all noise. Well, I think we should start by bashing Dave because he can't respond. He's muted. I think it's a perfect opportunity to take advantage. I forgot to give response to that. But so you saw the headlines. It's one thing I enjoyed since being in the business is sometimes you just have to assume I've been used to dealing with institutions, climates, institutional clients, my whole career is you just have to assume they already kind of get all know all that. First thing I'll point out is about what's happening. The market in crude oil is completely priced for and expecting supply disruptions and issues in the Middle East. It's priced for it. The average price of crude oil

for me now is about 20% above compared to other commodities. Now, we got a little bit of that event and very similar to what happened when there was the attack on the significant attack on Saudi Arabia's infrastructure in 2019. Prices popped up and now they're back down. Traders are just waiting for this. And they're just, you can see that in crude oil because they're not net short in positions. Now, in grains, they're extremely net short because supply is there. That's the key place in all commodities. Supply estimate revisions are upward and demand estimate revisions are downward, certainly from GDP. So where does that go? But I wanted to tilt over a little bit because to me, that's just a signal that I'm still extremely bearish crude oil. Just look at natural gas. It's the same price as 1990.

In this example, I'm bearish all commodities and good reason. Just look at China. But I want to tilt over to I think where James is top of what really is going to matter this week. And that is what I heard is the Super Bowl of for treasuries. It's the refunding, the Fed announcement, the unemployment number, and the announcement for the refunding, how they're going to be funding the debt. And I think either James or I think James, that's kind of more your space. Yeah. Well, I mean, thank you. I agree with you, Mike. And oil is kind of, it's curious, you know, because you see as everybody's looking at it and saying, well, as escalations occur in the Middle East, why are these prices not spiking? But then you've got the flip side of, well, demand and supply.

You've got demand down and supply up. So it's interesting. So it's something I'm definitely watching, too, and I'll be asking you about. But as far as the Treasury is concerned, yeah, we know what happened back in, it was September, October, the last time that Yellen had surprised the market a little bit with just the amount, the sheer amount of Treasuries that the U.S. Treasury had to issue. And so everybody's looking at this and wondering just how much runway they need and how much they have on the short-term T-bills. So what you're looking for here is what percentage, first of all, how much are they going to need? What are their needs? There should be an announcement today on that. Just what are the overall needs?

And then how are they going to fill those needs? And that'll come out a couple of days later, which is, are they going to continue to issue T-bills, which is drawing money out of the reverse repo, out of the money market funds and avoiding dipping into reserves. And just how much runway do they have? If these auctions are starting to get outsized, especially on the longer end, then you know that we're going to have to dip into reserves. And so the question is just at what level do reserves drop to, which I believe it's about 2.5 trillion that the Fed feels comfortable with overall. But the issue here is that it's an imbalance. It's not evenly distributed. And I'll grab a chart here for you, Scott,

for you to show just how imbalanced it is. And the issue is that if we do get below below that $2.5 trillion level, then you start seeing some cracks in the repo market, or you'll see SOFR flare up and you'll start seeing illiquidity issues. And that's really what we're looking out for. It's a huge, huge, huge indicator on liquidity going forward. And this all points back to why is the Fed being so-called dovish? Why does the market believe we're going to have so many rate cuts this year if economic indicators are showing a soft landing, everything's good? Well, I mean, there are conflicting signals, let's be fair. But we certainly aren't just being driven into recession in the first weeks of this

year. So why is everybody so certain that Fed funds is going to come down? And the reason is this, we're looking at liquidity and the possibility of liquidity issues, especially in the treasury market. And that's what everybody should be watching for this week, in my opinion. That battle between monetary and fiscal, and it doesn't seem like they even get on the phone or Zoom calls anymore. Right. So they're supposed to be completely separate, but how can you separate out just the sheer cost of the deficits we're running with the rates where they are? I mean, you have to take that into consideration if you're part of the system. It's just reality.

So that's the test. Go ahead. Go ahead. No, you go ahead. I wanted to talk about oil again, so I want you to finish there, and then I just want to ask you one more thing, but go ahead. Yeah, so that to me is going to be the key test of this year is we're seeing the typical disinflationary period, which is just normal. When prices go up too much, they go down. A little help from the Fed.

And we're seeing bonds starting to rally, yields coming down, and the stock market going up. What they haven't seen since 2011 is a period where we can see a typical recession where the stock market goes down and stays down for a while, not just 20%, and the Fed saves it. And we go to deflation and yields decline and bond prices go up. I think we're tilting towards that. And I think the market's way outside. Now, what Dave said is completely accurate. You have to worry about supply. I've heard that since day one, I was trading treasuries in 1988 in the T-bond pits in Chicago. But I always look over in the Bloomberg chart and I see the world bond index and I see, okay, the two-year right now, two-year note is 4.33. So let's look over to Canada, four. Let's look at United Kingdom, 4.3.

Germany, 2.5. Japan, zero. Korea, 2.1. South Korea, 3.3. There's a lot of room for treasuries just to collapse if we go for this little normal recession as indicated by things like the yield curve. And that's the stuff that we all priced too much

for last year. It was completely tilted back this year and dismissed. It's only been a soft landing. And that, to me, is what's going to happen this year. It's going to tilt a little bit this year. And you're clearly seeing it in commodities. Commodities are in a clear deflationary global recession right now. Gold's the only one going up.

I'm still bullish gold. And that's part of the reason I'm really worried about Bitcoin. But gold is up 6% on a one-year basis. Energy is down 10%. Industrial metals are down 17% or so. Grains are down 20%. Those are trajectories just getting started. And one thing I enjoy sometimes, a lesson I learned in the trading pits is what we used to do sometimes is our kids were young then.

We'd take a chart and take a getaway from, ask our kids what they thought about that chart. And they didn't, you know, and they didn't know anything about it as long as they were three years or older. And I just done that recently with natural gas. I'm like, I don't see why I can't get below two. Just done it recently with crude oil. I don't see why I can't get below 40.

That's what it's been doing. And it, it, it took the biggest pump in liquidity ever and Russians invasion Ukraine to get above 100. And what always happens, it tilts downward. So I'll just put one little anecdotal example. I was in the trading pits in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The same thing happened.

It went from 20 to 40, back down to 20. The low was 10 a couple of years later, and it took 13 years to get back above that high. It's doing the same thing. The big difference now is the U.S. is just a massive net exporter of energy. Yeah, what I was going to say before is it seems like the oil spike is based on temporary things. And I was going to actually give a corollary that you just did back to the Saddam Hussein days. But it seems like all these attacks on tankers, it seems like United States military personnel being killed in Jordan, on the border of Syria. I don't know. Back then, it seems like we called this war.

Yeah. And that the United States is pretending we're not in one for some reason. Well, so we are in a very significant, severe economic war, and the US is crushing China. I mean, it's just getting started. I would say don't underestimate it. I've been reading the latest book I've been reading is The Party by McGregor about the Chinese party. And then before that, I read Principles of Change Order by Ray Dalio. It was before Xi cozied up with the unalienable French and with Putin. Game changer in world order. And before that, I read The Price of Time. It's just getting started.

We've seen this before in history, but never to extent that a leader of the significant most demand source, whole source of economic growth in Asia and commodities has co-eased up with the former major enemy of the US in London friendship before the invasion. It's just getting started. And all that just means is it's economic and the U.S. will and has been crushing it, certainly right now. Just look at our imports from Mexico. Look at what's happening with Nearshoeing and Entrez. Look what's happening with our stock market, which is due for reversion. And the key thing I'm concerned about is we're so extended now. You just look at the U.S. stock market versus the rest of the world. You look at China's continually declining, Hang Seng, the CSI 300. I think most entities out there have just been waiting for stimulus to sell because they see the macro, they see the tilt, and they do

read history. Yeah. I was talking about, obviously, the fact that we're like physically, literally losing soldiers and that there seems to be enemies attacking the United States. But that is a very good way for us to pivot to China, which is worth talking about, because the narrative of entire last year was the Chinese real estate sector, obviously Evergrande. And it's happening, right? Evergrande liquidation order rattles Chinese economy. We're actually seeing what was threatened at the Hong Kong courts, setting off a daunting process to carve up the biggest casualty of a property crisis that's upending the world's second largest economy. A quote on this, and I would love your take on this, anyone. The macronomic impact should be limited as the liquidation itself is unlikely to exert more pressure on the battered property sector.

However, it will worsen sentiment as investors will be worried that there is a snowball effect on other pending cases. Well, I mean, it's coming out of the Hong Kong is going to be driving the process that nobody knows if there's really a process. Right. So and if you look at the dollar bonds, they're trading at a penny. So that just gives you an indication of people realize that even if there is a process, they don't expect to get any claims on any of these assets. So that is an issue for US investors. If you're invested in China, you just have to understand that you, you are, uh, you are beholden to that communist party. That's, that's what it is. And you have to understand that. And so, uh, it's, I believe it's going to be messy and I, and I'm not surprised that we're fine.

In fact, I'm surprised it took so long that we're finally going through this. We're hitting suddenly. Yeah. Dave. I mean, the way I look at it is, you know, people were looking at Evergrande last year as China's Lehman moment, and they basically stretch it out a year in order to minimize the impact that market has already gotten creamed over there from a stock market perspective. You know, is this the capitulation event? I don't know. I mean, I tend to agree with Mike

in terms of the ability of authoritarian regimes to stimulate economies. At some point, they have to stop kicking the can down the road. But, you know, we'll see how it goes. I just think it's incredible. If you had basically said that over the weekend, Evergrande

was going to get liquidated at some point you know eight months ago you know or earlier uh and then you look at the futures this morning and you see essentially meh uh no people would have been like no this isn't a thing this is the largest real estate developer in china and the futures are going and the market's basically not doing anything. I think, you know, to me that tells you that people have kind of moved on from the story. I mean, I don't know. I mean, you always talk about your kids. My kids are much older now, but I still remember, you know, at the end of the day, there's a period of time where the kids lose their attention span and it's like, they just don't care anymore. And it almost seems like

that's what's going on here. here oh we've seen that with every single news headline over the past few years since social media is proliferating we don't even talk about the ukraine war anymore israel war is barely even it's insane in a way but at the end of the day the difference between mike and i boils down to uh that fiscal policy is overwhelming monetary policy and the Fed doesn't have a chance to do anything other than try to engineer lower rates or keep rates down. That's why when rates got to five, they were panicking. We saw it at four and they're like, okay, well this isn't good because we see where the deficit is. And that structural deficit is a real problem. And there is no way out. I just want to be really clear about this. I'm going to

continue to say it. We can talk about all the squiggles on the charts and all the Bloomberg news. There is literally no way out other than inflating away the debt. And there is a difference. Every time Mike goes through this, I think exactly the same thing. My left brain says that Germany and the rest of the world, or a lot of the world, is down in the twos. Our rates are in the fours with the UK. But there is a difference. The difference is we're the world's reserve currency. And so we don't have as much control as we want. But if we didn't have the world's reserve currency, then our hollowed-out manufacturing sector, everything else, and the reasons that got along with it would be, would be far worse. And this is an election year. So I will continue to say that this is an election year, like where we're being,

looks like we're being given a choice between horrible and worse. And, you know, in that particular area, by the way, you can all choose for yourself which one is horrible which is worse enjoy i'm not i really don't want to get into politics other than that no one can answer when i say horrible or worse at least one you know who'd be running the country and it's not the person who's the current president because anybody who believes joe biden is the current president running the country making all the decisions is not paying attention we just don't know who's running the country. It's the administration. And I was commenting, you know, in, you know, skiing last week with somebody who said, oh, they were very, very left

and whatever, you know, I can have a conversation with anybody. And they kept telling me the achievements of the Biden administration. I said, and I just asked him very simply, I said, listen, in your entire lifetime before this, have you ever referred to the achievements of the so and so administration or just the achievements of so and so? And they kind of looked at me and I said, we all know why. And he laughed and he said, well, there's some truth in that. And then we changed the subject. But, you know, the fact is, is this administration, it matters because they're going to be pulling every policy lever. So every time James talks about what Yellen's doing versus what the Fed is going to do, I think that's a very big deal. And so to me, the most important thing to watch is can the U.S. keep control of the long end via the tools the Federal Reserve has?

And I'm curious, we haven't talked about bond vigilantes, but the three of us are old enough, Mike. You remember what the bond vigilantes did. The question is, are we back to that, or have they still been effectively neutered? I got to piggyback on that. First of all, we have to, in markets, I think are pick it back in there though first of all we have to in markets I think are starting to price in the increasing probability of a second god help us third Trump administration I say that because if he gets back in the guy can well you know do this many kind of things that are inconsiderate. Who else can you do? But the bottom line is, drill it, Will, 10% tariffs, bad for all commodities, most notably crude oil, good for gold.

I've been thinking the right about it, but it's just so obvious. And he's just made it clear. The drill, Will, is going to happen. And the problem is, commodities are already in a bad tilt that way with Biden administration. So if Trump gets in, it's just bad for all. It's completely deflationary from a commodity standpoint. Now, potentially more treasury debt, but that's a whole different story if you have deflation on the rest of the world. But to me, I just had to

piggyback on that a little because the market started to price that in as he rises in the polls and says, this is what he's going to do. We've seen this happen. And we've seen in the grains, that's when you put in 20 year lows in grains when he started that trade war. And it's a drill. Well, Crudeau hung around 50. At 77, it's really expensive if there's that election tilting that way. And the stock market was supposed to go to zero if he didn't get elected last time. And it's an all time high. So he's as good as predicting what happens with markets as the rest of us. It's not even a statement against him. I'm just saying like, you can't listen to what any of the politicians say. The economy's going to be like, if they get elected, you can't

say that it's good for a Republican or a Democrat to get elected. I wrote a whole newsletter on that recently, went back and looked. Every idea of what's going to happen to the market after the election has always been wrong. It's so true. But one thing I want to tilt back on a little bit and go over to James a little bit with this idea of bond vigilantes. The lesson I've learned in the almost four decades in the business is every time yields spike because of increase in supply, they've been buying opportunities for treasury bonds, particularly if you're in a recession. And that's why I point out, if you want to go any place in the world in the US, this dollar that everybody seems to hate, you're getting 5% and guaranteed to get it back. And by the way, you have the full faith and protection and government of US military behind you too. I mean, you're not getting it any

place else. So it's unstoppable there, but I hope we don't have to test it. And I think we have last year tested it pretty well. 5% two-year notes, 5% long bonds didn't last very long. But we're having those deflationary forces. To me, the test is if we just get a normal recession, which we haven't really had since 2008, and we get typical deflation as you get for a recession. If bond yields don't drop in that environment, that's a problem. But like I said, we have that enormous privilege. The thing that's really changed is both last two administrations treated the US deficit as something that didn't matter and just kept spending for more votes.

James. All right. Yeah. So let's talk through that. I brought up that chart if you want to show it. It shows the reserve. So the the reserve distributions and you can see how concentrated it is in the top banks. So it's super concentrated. And remember back in September in 2019, you guys all remember the repo issue in 2019 and you had a lot of tax payments. You had a larger treasury auction sizes and it just locked up, the repo market locked up. So what the issue is here and what Mike is talking about is, okay, so if we do continue to grow these longer, like if the treasury tilts away from T-bills and starts issuing longer term treasuries, then they're going to have to draw money out of reserves.

So how how much is available for that? And so then you go back to, OK, if it drops below two point five trillion, that makes the Fed feel uncomfortable. QT pedal, right? They stop QT or they pivot from there. Then you know that the issue at hand is not about the economic indicators. It's not about the economy. It's about worries about liquidity if they start lowering rates. So it's kind of like they're playing a game of chicken here, right? So how far can the Fed go keeping rates where they are with before something does they we do actually have a cascading effect on the economy because at some point high rates will affect the economy there. It's all lagging. Right.

But if you see the Fed start to lower rates before you see any economic indicators, then you know that this is the issue, that they're worried about liquidity. And so back to the bond vigilantes, if bond vigilantes do start pushing that long end of the curve up and the interest rates up in the long end of the curve, it's because they know that they expect the Fed to allow for long-term high perpetual inflation and they want to be paid for that. And so that's where the issue is. So the question is, do we have some sort of failure before that? Do we have another Silicon Valley bank or something unforeseen in the credit markets that causes a steep and quick drawdown, that is the question that remains.

And we're all watching for that. And so- We talked about this. Yeah, sorry. I was going to say, James, we talked about this a few weeks ago when Powell sort of unexpectedly pivoted with his language when nothing was broken. Didn't seem like there was any reason for them to even talk about lowering rates if the economy was humming and it had everybody saying, what do they know that we don't?

Right. This isn't even fiscal policy. This is just seeing the market. They have an obligation to keep treasury markets liquid in order to keep high confidence in investing them in order to keep high confidence in the dollar that's that is what they're that's it's essentially what the job their job is it's not to manage interest rates and it's to make sure that there's confidence in the dollar when you go to the first principles of it so that's what we're and so why are they doing that why why are they turning a little bit dovish?

If I can't begin to get, right? Signs of deterioration in the Fed districts, all the Fed districts reports, the beige books, all that. That's from our economists. And there's many other reasons. I'm showing the deflation, but I just want to point out one thing. If you're short in US treasuries, your counterpoint that can rip your face off is the Fed. And I'd say good luck,

because if you think rates are going to keep spiking because of this, they'll come in and rip your face off. I've seen it happen. We've all seen it happen. They're in the buyer last resort and they'll monetize it then and they'll just prevent it from happening. If it's destabilizing economy, they can buy all they want. They have the deepest pockets on the planet. A hundred percent agreed. I don't, and I don't think you should be shorting treasuries. No way. I don't think you should be out there waiting for vigilantes.

That is not, I think my base case, Mike, is that we have some sort of credit event in this year. If, if the fed keeps rates at this level for more than three to six months, I think that that, that is a very real possibility. So no, I wouldn't do that. And if you do,

it would be a momentary shot for you to make that trade. And then it's done. It's just like March of 2020, the Fed just dumps massive liquidity into the market and, and steps in there and starts buying because they need it liquid. That's right. I agree a hundred percent. James, I think we get a credit event 27 hours after the election. So we've had it in trucking. Trucking's down about a third or so. I've got a brother-in-law in the business. We're having it in the mortgage business, some parts of housing. It's clearly

depression type business. Container boards, the latest update is just showing as bad as it was in 2008, declining. I mean, there's all these early signs. And the key quote from Ana was that Fed might just want to be ahead of the game. The point is, inflation is still high. Yeah. Okay. I want to pay Dave. I'm going to let you go run in a second, but Mike, you just gave me the perfect segue to the next topic. So I have to bring it up. I've literally had this sitting behind the stage right here. So we have Truflation here. Let me share it to the stage, which says that we're actually at 1.81%. I don't know if anyone uses Truflation, but US government reported rate 3.4%. So we started digging before the show into

obviously what's happening with inflation. And there's some really interesting stories. And it seems that everybody has conflicting views on this, right? Fed's inflation battle hinges on convincing Americans price hikes are done. I loved this quote from Del Giorno, right? Anyone knows? Huge food company. Turkey, they did not raise their prices on people as inflation went up. And this is what he said. Turkey meets roast beef ham. It's crazy. We have eaten as much margin as we can. What they're reporting is not what we are experiencing, he says, of the government's inflation statistics. Then you get into the BOE, which literally they're basically saying the people whose

job it is to predict their forecasts have been wrong every single time for the first time in history for a year. Nobody has any idea what the hell is going on with inflation. Good luck. Then you have Krugman coming in and saying, we're calculating inflation wrong. The fight is over. We should be looking at core PCE, not core CPI. We can get into the reasons why. Then you have people coming in like Kyle Bass and saying, dude, what are you talking about? If you look at the actual numbers, the real number is over 40% in the last three

years combined. What am I getting at here? Nobody seems to have any idea what's happening with inflation, period. Right? And do you think that's an accident? No, of course not. There you go. There you go. That's what I'm saying. You have the CEO. All you hear of the administration is time after time over the last number of months is inflation's coming down and they're trying to project this. It's getting better. It's not getting better. That's why people are frustrated. That's why I love that quote from Del Giorno. That's what really got me thinking about this. This is the guy who knows. He's the one whose margins are being eaten by selling these food

products to people. And he says, those are not the real numbers. I mean, look, at the end of the day, if you talk about things where we can't import our way out or where we haven't gotten lucky or smart, however you want to look at it in terms of commodities. I mean, what Mike talks about with commodities is very true. I mean, technology means we can drill for oil cheaper, right? You know, there are things that are very sensitive to technology and, you know, we've managed to improve the supply side. You talk about car insurance, house insurance, basically any insurance, which is a huge component of a lot of people's, you know, what they do. You talk about education, you talk about all the stuff that you cannot, you know, get out of. Inflation is insane. I mean, ask anybody who lives in a condo what

their HOA fees have done. I saw one in Miami recently that was advertising a $12,000 a month HOA fee. Or anybody in Florida, what their house insurance is now. I know. I mean, my mortgage is not even half my, it is less than half of, and of course I got a three and a quarter percent mortgage, so whatever, but it's less than half of my payment. And by the way, I put 30 plus percent down. So it you know, it's like, sure. But the mortgage compared to the insurance and HOA fees is lower. Just think about that for a second. And that's obviously going to do nothing but go down, right? Because the mortgage is fixed.

So the percentage is going to get lower. Look, the fact is, is whatever one believes is going on with inflation, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury cannot afford to have long rates go up. Mike is right. They need the traders to continue to be conditioned by fear. They need the traders out there to be unwilling to short so that the only reason that the long rates would go up is people just don't want to buy, right? And it's as simple as that. They cannot afford to let the... And for people who don't understand what this is, I mean, I happen to have been sitting in London in the early 90s, and you can read books about this. There have been multiple

ones about what George Soros did to the pound and what was going on around that. Look, the governments in Europe and the UK lost control of the markets completely, and the markets took them to the woodshed, and it wasn't pretty. I mean, Soros made an enormous amount of money by breaking the pound, as it were. Now, I'm not saying the U.S. is vulnerable. I think the fact is that the Fed is dramatically stronger, and I think Mike is right. Traders are conditioned not to take the other side of that. But, you know, we do need to understand that if your if your deficit is as big as it is, and James is great about tweeting out that number, you know, it is a big problem. And that interest payment is a big problem. Believe me, they don't like it at four. They want long rates to be at two and a half because it's the only way we can afford it.

The question is, is there market demand for anyone other than the Fed to buy it? Because the Fed's already contributing. This is the first year the Fed's going to be a net contributor to the budget deficit. Generally, they make money. I mean, what are they down? $130 billion or something like that, James? They're not making money. No.

So that is – don't – And that just adds to the deficit because that's where the Treasury is supposed to be making money off the Fed, and they're not. They're losing money. That's right. And so it's kind of a big deal. So when you look at all this, I mean, look, the shadow memories in my, and it's different because, of course, history doesn't repeat it rhymes. But the shadow memories of this election year reminds me a lot of the 2000 election. And in 2000, we saw a very, very turbulent tax season where the tech stocks, the internet stocks that had led the market up just got bloodied and battered.

But then we saw a rally into the fall. And then we all know what happened after the election and into 2001, et cetera, et cetera. So, you know, that wouldn't surprise me at all to see that sort of action. It never would. But being the lone bull here on Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin is the other side of that trade. I really do. I think that, you know, it's funny, the smart, I always, one of my favorite indicators in the stock market, and I'd be curious, Mike, you could tell me what's going on there because I don't know, is what are insiders doing? But what insiders are confident, the stock market six months to a year later,

it tends to be higher. When insiders are dumping, the stock market tends to be lower. If you look at the hash rate of Bitcoin, which is really the confidence of miners, it's at an all-time high. And it's been one of the best looking up into the right charts ever. At the same time as the price of Bitcoin. Well, we all know. I mean, it's kind of it's sitting in a trading range. We talk about this the last couple of weeks. I mean, you know, 42, the 38 and a half to 42 and a half range is sort of, you know, kind of a channel that's between two fib retracement levels from the original rally. And so it's kind of sitting here doing nothing. It's met. And honestly, the longer it's met, the more you get a coiled spring effect. Yeah.

Will it be down or will it be up? In either direction. I'm going to give you another chance to earn another meal from you, which I will always pay you back, is I bet you, I'll give you one-to-one odds, which you probably love, that Bitcoin is going to outperform. I'm sorry, that gold is going to outperform Bitcoin this year. I'm sure you'd love to think. Done. Done. Now until December 31st?

Now, wait, wait, wait. Is it in the year or December 31st? December 31st. By December 31st from here. This year. The calendar 2024 year. From January 29th or from January 1st. I freely believe that. I think Bitcoin is on the path for demonetizing gold.

I think it's in the same way gold demonetized silver. It didn't happen overnight, but it certainly happened. You know, and it's funny. Yeah, so that's fine. Although we do need to pick a time for, you know, when Scott's going to be in Miami next. Yeah, it's going to be next time in Miami and we're going to fly James in. But the reason I am that way about Bitcoin, other than the insiders doing it,

is I still say Bitcoin is a vote against confidence in the structural integrity of the system. And everything we're talking about, wars and, you know, politics and, you know, God, you know, there's so many possible interesting, you know, black or I don't know what color swan event. I don't know what's the color of an event where our election goes to the House of Representatives because we can't get a winner in the Electoral College. And, you know, depending on who it could happen. Right. You know, if Kennedy is continuing to pull a 20 percent, you know, it could easily happen. So what's the problem with that? It's just going to take votes from Democrats.

I think it's a tilt towards Trump winning. It's not so obvious. It's it's they're even talking about I saw stories about Kennedy being a VP for Trump because he wants to go on the popular side. Who the hell knows? I'm just saying our politics are so- Certainly entertaining. It's entertaining in just a very sad way. But the truth is that- Guys, we are 29 days into the year so far, and this is just starting. It's going to get- Oh, it's going to be- The only prediction I am very confident in with any asset is volatility. I guess I lean bearish on the tech stock, which basically is the market because of the big seven, in the sense of I think that they've run a long way. I wouldn't be shorting it. No way.

But, you know, it's just too hard unless you're sitting at the screens every day and you're a technical trader. And Scott has plenty of guys who are far better at this than I am. But I do fear that there is something lurking. I think that we do need to understand at its core that we are literally in the season of the biggest brains on Wall Street marketing Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and distrust in government. And I do believe broadening that base of investors is a very big deal. And I'm sorry, I have to vote. I got my first one to vote. I was just going to say, I didn't show you guys, but while you were doing that, I'm multitasking. We have another bet.

McGlone just bet Dave Weisberger on macro money that gold would outperform Bitcoin 2024. I put it out to the crowd. We'll get it. But now, Dave, I know, Mike, you want to see this go like 90% Bitcoin. Well, I know. I fully expect the idiot word is going to come out. I hope to get that because I've never been writing a call without being called an idiot. And that's what people need to understand when you've been in the business as long as we have.

And you have to tweak that. And the people who get mad at me, I'm like, okay, well, I know your position now. So I want to give you one little iteration for this year. The total return, the average return since beginning this millennium for the S&P 500 NASDAQ on an annual basis has been 7%. 7% has been the return on annual, like last year was obviously much more. And you know what money supply has been up on an annual basis, M2, is 6.4%. So what's driving things? So my point is, let's look at the iterations for the year. We're already up almost 3% this year. So we're already into maybe an 8%, 9%

annual return year in the S&P 500. Just imagine if we're down 8% in the year. That's the iteration the market is not even conceived of. So when you're a trader putting on positions, that's where your vig is. Well, what's my position? Where can I make money? Well, it's already priced for the 8% to 10% return. Everything is. Just put that iteration in your head. At the end of the year, we're talking to the S&P 500 is down 8 percent what does that do for everything that's my point is i i look at it that is such a low probability in most people's minds then if you're structuring opposite positions that's where you're biggest i'm telling you the election is november 5th i think the market crashes on november 6th 7th 8th somewhere somewhere in that uh somewhere that i

think that they at this point i do think that they, at this point, I do think that they can prop it up that long if they need to. James, I see you have a chart. Okay, go ahead, Mike, and then James. No, again, the question is, where have you not heard? I heard, to me, it's the same thing as I remember hearing in 2005 and 2006 when the housing market started going down as old. The housing market's never been down on an annual basis in the US. I'm like, yeah, well, it's never been up as much. You're hearing the same thing now. The market's always up in election years. I'm like, okay, after a year, we're up 25%. And after the biggest liquidity pump in history

with China in decline, well, yeah. And it's the most controversial president in history running. It's just like, okay, this is great. But the point is, market's so priced for one side. It was like the opposite last year, which I was wrong on the recession, right? In commodities, it's just so far to one side.

I'm like, yeah, the risk is it just tilts back a little bit. No, we're going to get bumps. But I mean, a real tilt. James, something brought up there. No, this was Dave's point about the Fed, what they owe the Treasury. And they call this a deferred a deferred asset so i mean it's like this is the clown show we're talking about here like this is what the this is a deferred asset now on the um you know that looks like what a stable coin depegs

that's what that chart looks like ludicicrous, right? It's what happens when you assume that everything that has been will continue. Which, by the way, is the point Mike just made. No, I don't disagree. But where I disagree with Mike is, I think, to quote a money manager who I used to follow, who totally doesn't believe that nothing virtual can have value. He's sort of in the Peter Schiff camp. This guy named Bill Fleckenstein is one of the smarter, more erudite people who you can understand about the market. And he basically says in this sort of economy, in a fiat economy, all roads lead to inflation. And he's gold bugged for that reason.

I haven't seen what he said in the last couple of years, so I don't know what he thinks about Bitcoin. Maybe other people do. But at the end of the day, the fact is, is where Mike and I disagree at the core is I think we live in a simulation of a manipulated economy. And I think that the manipulators are going to throw as much liquidity at the system to keep the ball rolling as they can, particularly this year. I said, if you all remember, I said the same thing last year. So the difference is, is I, yeah, I think that deficits are a very big deal. I think we are rapidly approaching a level which is unsustainable in the United States

and all roads lead to inflation. It is literally the only way to get out of, get out of the dead hole that we're in as a dollar without losing the dollar as a reserve currency. And i think that we understand we need the dollar to be the reserve currency you know because at that point what would happen to consume instead of asset inflation which is what they want uh you'll end up with consumer inflation and that's what they don't want and so one of the reasons we can't define inflation is because we have somehow over the last 30 years ignored the greatest financialization bubble in the history of the reasons we can't define inflation is because we have somehow over the last 30 years ignored the greatest financialization bubble in the history of the world. What were the financial stocks, the component of the S&P in 1982?

I think it was around 10%. Now it's 40%. And if you take tech into account, it's even worse. And so it's a big deal. So I think that this is the game. Mike? Sorry, I thought- Yeah, it was funny. I just had to piggyback. Our chief, Michael Casper, our chief technical

strategist in equities point out that tech is now over a third of the S&P 500, yet its total GDP, it's about 8%. There you go. And so, yeah, tech and financials are dramatically overpulling their weight in stock prices and in the economy compared to what they should be. And the reason is because of financialization, where basically lower than market interest rates for so long. Now, arguably, we have higher, we have positive real rates for the first time in a while. And that's why James's base case is something's going to break. I think you answered, I mean, we've given this answer before, but I think you just answered the simple question as to why Powell gave the pivot language so early, and it's just because they can't afford the step.

Well, because when he did it months before he actually does it, he gets in the air cover to do it without having to say, because do you think Powell doesn't know the chart that James and Mike show weekly, which is when Fed cuts rates, that's when the markets crash. You think he doesn't know that? Of course he knows that. And so part of the, this is the famous game of chess. So what do you do? Well, you tell people you're going to do it first. And so that way, when you do it, you're saying, well, you all knew about it. This was not a surprise rate cut. We're not panicking. I told you we might be doing that. Well, no, yeah, but you told us that you expected you were going to have to panic later in the year. I mean, that's really all you know. Minimize volatility.

But yeah. I clearly cannot choose a glass of wine in front of you. Exactly. And the fact is that the difference between Mike and I is we actually agree far more than we disagree is I just have, I won't use the word faith it's actually the opposite i just believe that our cowardly leading class is going to do everything they can to kick the can down the road the only game they have is liquidity that's what i think that that's the difference yeah that's exactly right and so that so when we when we listen to everybody this week we're going to hear we're going to hear from the Treasury, not Janet.

Well, maybe she'll have a press conference. We're going to hear from the Treasury. We're going to hear from the Fed. We're going to hear the presser. And the things we're looking for is, okay, how dovish are we? First of all, from the Treasury, just how much are they going to issue? How much are they going to borrow? How dovish is the Fed? And which end of the curve is the treasury going to lean on? And then

what does Powell say, if anything, about QT? Where is that program going? And how are they going to taper that off? And if you start hearing him say that, I think we're accomplishing our goals in QT and we're going to be metered in our approach, well, then you know that they are extremely concerned about liquidity in this first quarter. And that's kind of what we're looking for. Do I expect them to say that? No, I don't. But if they do, that's a strong indication in my mind. Hey, guys, we managed to basically not talk about Bitcoin for 50 minutes, which I think is pretty impressive. ETF, ETF, ETF. There you go. We got to get our shots in before I'm going to do coffee shots now this time. But we do need to talk about it. This was the lead

for the title here. Chris Berniski, a lot of people may know he was the crypto lead at Cathie Wood's ARK. He thinks we're going back definitely to the 30 to 36 range, potentially well down into the 20s. Everybody's giving this a lot of airtime. I love they said, continue to think we go lower to consolidate than most people expect due to variables that are too many to explain in detail via tweet. Sources, trust me, bro, right, is basically what he's saying here. But making the case that he thinks we're way overheated, I think Mike will like this, that likely to go way down, but he does still think that that's the last dip before way up,

which seems to be sort of the consensus here. But Mike, I'm assuming 20s wouldn't surprise you at all. It would. To me, just one thing sometimes I enjoy doing is, like I said earlier, is just getting back, looking at a chart and trying to ignore fundamentals. And I completely agree with Dave says the fun. I can't not avoid declining supply, increasing demand adoption. But 30 is just a normal pivot in Bitcoin. And 50 was expensive. We all knew that was seriously silly at 50 because of the reasons. And right now expensive. We all knew that was seriously silly at 50 because of the reasons.

And right now it's pretty, seems pretty happy and well-priced. But it's like my bent is, I love when people say, oh, it's going to go up into the refunding. I'm like, sure, if the stock market's up, of course it'll go up. It's got basically a three beta to the S&P 500.

Yes, there's iterations in there. And I showed you earlier, if you take Bitcoin since like 2011 on an annual basis, it's like a 65 beta to the S&P 500. It's turning into a mature market. So to me, that's got to change. And I haven't seen any signs whatsoever of it changing its high correlation, high volatility, high beta to the beta that it is. Now, that's why I like to point out if the beta goes down, the first place that probably should be is treasuries, which don't always go down right away in terms of yield, and gold, which doesn't always go down right away in terms of price. But Bitcoin might lead.

And so far, you can look at it this year as it might be the leading indicator. I look at it versus gold. Gold is, you know, Bitcoin gold ratio has been underperforming beta for five years or so. I don't agree, but I don't agree specifically because, first of all, I don't know what measure of Bitcoin gold you're looking at, but we're going to take gold at whatever, $2,000 at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin at $40,000, and we'll see where it goes. But Bitcoin, and we say it every time, is an option.

The monetary component of gold whether you believe it's five trillion dollars or ten trillion dollars is important my wife and i we were talking we were doing we were in house and they were looking at silver jewelry and whatnot and somehow the topic of platinum came up with a jeweler and polly was like well how much more expensive is a platinum ring than a gold ring and they said well wait ainum, which is 30 times rarer than gold in the earth, is actually cheaper than gold. It's like half the price per ounce. And she said, how could that be? Platinum is better, right?

And the reason is because a huge percentage of gold's price is its monetary use, whether it's people buying jewelry not because they care what it looks like in India on Diwali for savings or savings from central banks, which have been the biggest buyer of gold over the last couple of years. It's the monetary side. Bitcoin is still a tenth to a twentieth. So more than an order of magnitude cheap if Bitcoin is going to become a monetary asset. And so whenever we look at these squiggles on the chart, it's important to understand that. So if you get to a point where Bitcoin gets to price discovery, it can do dramatically more. That's the reason you talk about in terms of beta. Beta implies a correlation, right? That I don't really think is there. I can easily see a world and God knows Bitcoin has not been correlated to the stock market on any metric over the last year for and so i don't see that sure

it was stock market went up last year bitcoin went up last year that's correlation isn't that a random i'm just messing with the day but it did happen the stock market went down in 2022 bitcoin went down more that's correlated last three years the correlation is about 3x i mean if you look at an annual basis bitcoin doesn't go up unless the stock market goes up unless it maybe in the first days when it was a baby but now since futures are launched it's been more i mean bitcoin got crushed in 2022 it's a massive over leverage and forced selling bitcoin in 2023 recovered what's it can you say the same thing about the commodity market? Well, the thing that's interesting is, I will continue to say this. Commodities, I agree with your thesis on commodities.

Bitcoin is not a commodity per se. It's an option on that commodity because at the end of the day, it's a question of acceptance. The more and more people you get to critical mass of people who believe Bitcoin will be a monetary asset. There's just not. It's just way too small. So let's talk through that. Because, Mike, if you look at where Bitcoin has come from. So let's talk about just the TA, the charts versus the fundamentals.

So if you look at where Bitcoin came from on this last move. So it's up 70%-ish. You'd have to go down, it'd be down 50% to go down from the highs on the day of the launch to go down to 30,000. I don't see that happening. Could it happen? Of course, it's Bitcoin. Could we retrace back to 37,000? Absolutely.

I think that that's absolutely well within the possibility of of of bitcoin but that's just looking at trading right so looking at the levels and looking at the the support levels but if you step back and and and we go to what dave is talking about it has been existing as an option on this commodity and now we have this this new we have these new securities that they're traded, settled, they're marketed just like any other stock in the world. So it's just like buying gold in an ETF, except I would argue better because of the nature of Bitcoin and the ability to see what's actually in the address that ETF manager holds. So if you just think about that and we step back with what has happened over the last few weeks, the two and a half weeks these things have been trading or a little less than, we had this massive unlocking of the GBTC.

We've all seen it. It's half a billion dollars a day for almost two weeks. And now that's tapering off a little bit. We'll see if that continues to taper off. I think it will. And then on the flip side, of course, we didn't get the institutional adoption instantaneously that takes a little bit of time. But as we do see the institutions lean into this, allow their, you have a little bit of education around it. People are looking for something that is the next, that they are looking for that digital gold. And as they get to the understanding around it, that's the key. And that's going to take time. But I think that that just snowballs. Does it become this God candle event?

It could if liquidity dries up completely. You could have this massive candle. But I think it's more of a consistent set of candles upwards over the period of the next few months that really drives this price higher because of that institutional understanding and broad adoption with people who just don't understand how to buy it off an exchange and have your own wallet and or you know signing device and managing the keys like that's just too much for most people yeah and i know that Bitcoiners, they rail against people about this, but investors are not, they don't expect to have to deal with things like that. They expect to have

to be able to just buy and settle it with a broker like a normal thing. And if it's abnormal, it scares them. So this makes it normal to them and it's going to drive adoption, in my opinion. By the way, it's no different than gold. The difference is there are cultures, whole cultures with a billion people, which is totally used to owning gold as a financial asset as part of their hustle. And, yeah, there's a much smaller, two orders of magnitude smaller number of Bitcoiners who understand that you can do it ourselves. I mean, obviously we all do, right?

So, you know, we understand that. But this issue is a big deal. Right. Just like Jamie Dimon said. I don't disagree. You're saying things that I've written about five years ago. I completely agree. It was about time they got to the ETFs. Just show me the beef. Show me the beef of that performance. That's

why I can't wait to get on this program and say, hey, I can see definable signs of my value at risk model that this Bitcoin gold ratio is outperforming beta. And I don't see that right now. I see crocodile jaws. I see S&P 500 going straight up. It's like Bitcoin going down. Just show me the beef. That's my point. As I'm fundamentally- Look at how much Bitcoin ran prior to that, right? So that's important. That's my point. The history that I expect to hopefully live long enough to write and to teach to students is the all-time high in Bitcoin came with the biggest liquidity pump in history.

And the back of this asset was designed to offset everything you talked about. I mean, there's a whole history of Satoshi Nakamoto and Nakamoto's white paper. So the fact is that the high was the biggest liquidity in history, nowhere even comparison to some, even the big pump in 1929. And the fact is that that was the high still makes me kind of concerned, like, okay, well, maybe people are just, and that everybody's so excited about Bitcoin. You look at a normal risk manager, hedge fund, like I'm going to try to buy what everybody hates and maybe lighten up what everybody loves at the moment.

That's my point. Let me, show me the beef. Let me see my own normal risk fund manager. Here's the thing, Mike. The trade just finished. The trade last year was Dubai GBTC. That trade's over. Thank you very much we'll wait

for the next trade okay so my point is the all-time high of 60 whatever you know 60 whatever whatever it is on 14th of november of 2021 everyone looks at it in terms of price space what i think you should do is take that price and divide it by the hash rate, which at the time was 167, you know tera hashes We're now at 500 tera hashes and the price is where it is divided those two and I believe in history you're probably Correct. That is the all-time high. It will never be touched if you normalize for the hatchery So essentially right now that will be a plus thousand, just, you know, roughly speaking you know,

you can calculate however the hell you want to calculate it, whether you do it smooth or whatever, but somewhere around 180,000, that's where the all time high is. If you do it right, the tax rate, we're trading at 40. We are not, we are so far from an all time high in Bitcoin right now, completely because the liquidity hadn out of it because of the issues of 2022. The price went down. And the stock market has caught up and is at an all-time high because that liquidity is still there.

That, to me, is the ARB trade. trade the trade the mike alfred trade which didn't do so well last year but probably wasn't that horrible of bitcoin versus the s&p feels like it feels like 2024 that's the trade uh will that love to see it bitcoin or bitcoin has that but we'll see i'd prefer bitcoin versus gold i think it's more of a layup trade and so that's why i like the bet, because I can easily see the can kicking working for the stock market this year, even though my gut tells me it shouldn't. And so I'm kind of in that range. But I just want to be clear that when you and I look at all time high, I'm thinking relative to the strength of the network. And you're thinking. No, I'm thinking of lessons of market wizards, which I learned in the trading pits, the new Charlie D. Francesca. It's the number on the statement. What's my money? Bottom line. Sorry, I'm an ex-trader. I might not see what my statement is. I make money, I lose money. And the thing about the internet bubble that was so cool in the 2000s

was nobody cared. And in fact, almost every stock that turned to profitability when they first started profitability got hammered because all of a sudden people couldn't value it as a story anymore. They devalued it as an actual financial asset. And so I go back to Graham and Dodd. At some point, there is a beef there. There is some reason to believe

in a financial asset. In Bitcoin, that metric is usage, hash rate, network, et cetera, adoption. In stocks, it's sales or projected sales and projected cash flows. And that's what your traditional investors are. Right. I mean, CoinRoute, people think we're crazy because we're profitable. Right. You know, we're growing slower than other crazy people in our space. But it's what gold and commodity people have been fighting forever is what are the earnings? Well, that's right.

Well, it's because gold is the measuring stick against which financial assets are measured in large measure. It used to be the total one. Now it's less than 10%. But the fact of the matter is that's the whole issue. Will Bitcoin become that measuring stick? And if you think that's not why Elizabeth Warren really cares, you're not paying attention. They don't want a measuring stick that they can't control.

At least the US had the ability to do something with the gold price. And whether that something is Jamie Dimon and the billions in fines he's paid over the years to change the gold price or not. There's some level of control. If you think that the US government and that people like Elizabeth Warren aren't being told by her staffers that we can't allow this Bitcoin to be a measuring stick because we can't control it as well, you're not paying attention. I believe that that's at the end of the day why something that should be literally a foundational plank in any progressive, i.e. Bitcoin for financial inclusion, the progressives are against it is because they're worried that they won't be

able to do all the other stuff they want to do if there's a really good measuring stick. That's what I think. That's my gut. And I've been saying that for a while now. Makes a lot of sense. We're out of time, James. I know you wanted to jump in and get a final. Okay, cool. I do want to say, because we did bring up the ETF just very quickly, that the BlackRock ETF now has over 2 billion assets under management, absolutely astounding numbers. Now we're thinking that Schwab might come in, according to Eric Baltrudis, with 10 bips fee is what he's's predicting which would still be half of the ones that are going to be unprofitable because they're too low right so i mean you take a look and this has just been an astounding success with the market cap i mean gbtc is still 21 but you know with black

rocket 2 fidelity at 1.8 when these gbtc outflows end, it's going to take a lot for the price to not go up, I think. Right. And I think that this is the case of if you build it, they will come. And now we've got the superhighway built out, the on-ramps are being built, and people will come to the space and they'll start to understand it in the way that Dave is talking about. And whether that happens in the next three months, six months, or two years, it doesn't matter, but that's what's happening, period. Yeah. I was looking for the tweet. I couldn't find it. But BlackRock is literally this week, hosting thousands of RIAs to start to explain to them what this product is and why you should be in it. It's just beginning.

I get email from Fidelity almost daily about... Yeah, Fidelity digital assets. Almost daily. Digital assets. We're explaining them. Join our webinar. Yeah, almost daily. Sorry, Mike. What was that?

That was good. I'm good. I'm good. And people forget, Mike, I want to... Final point, even though we're over. People forget that, Mike, when we met and we've always talked, you are a Bitcoiner. Yeah. I think people should not get confused about our arguments about where the price is going at any given time.

I mean, totally. I look at it at a global macro standpoint. This is a revolutionary asset. It's just unheard of in terms of studying history. And then you look at, that's all a sign. I completely agree with what Dave says. That's why unheard of in terms of studying history. And then you look at that's all a sign. I completely agree with what Dave says. That's why I look at it. Okay. Well, in this case, though, it's showing lack of performance. I look at it shorter term basis. I need to show that performance starting to kick in. It's just showing that it's underperforming beta.

Just want to be very clear that because we talk about what we think will happen in three months, six months, a year, I'm 100% sure that all four of us think that Bitcoin is inevitable in the long term and are extremely bullish on it. And the other thing is, guys, the best part about this show to the audience is that we don't have a bunch of people who sit here and agree and scream into an echo chamber. That's why I love it. And uh we need the perspectives of everybody here i think we need more bears to be honest like you know we're all pretty bearish on certain aspects of the economy that's for damn sure uh and you know the biggest difference between mike and i is i actually think that in this cycle bitcoin will will start to show its ultimate hedge against

that. I agree. Mike thinks that we need another cycle or two for it to show that. No, I see it. I just need to see it. That's not exactly that big of a difference, right? Especially if your time horizon is 12 years or 15 years. No, I just, being a trader, and we all know traders, they usually get to sense these things

first. I just, I want to see it. Yeah, totally agree. Okay, we did 10.07. It's our longest show ever, guys. Show me in the just so i want to see it yeah totally agree okay we did 1007 it's our longest show me in the charts it just i want to see it it's that it's like go okay go no we're good we're good it doesn't bother me i just hate to keep you guys who have actual jobs because i don't i just have to go talk on twitter spaces or x spaces so yeah whatever all right guys thank you very much of, we'll be back tomorrow morning,

9am Eastern standard time. I think we're working on, you're going to love it. An ETF show with Eric Valcius and James Safer. You guys got to hear more about the ETFs. There's so much to talk about. All right, guys,

that is all we got. I'll see you, you gentlemen next week. Bye. Let's go.