The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Hit $180K In The Next 3 Months

Episode Date: December 26, 2024

Mike Alfred joins me for one of the final shows of this pivotal year for crypto with some bold predictions for Bitcoin!  In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin is going to $180,000 by March 21st, exactly on that date. Very important date for you guys to know. According to Mike Alfred's quant, we're going to talk about whether Mike's serious or being sarcastic, because you never know, but then actually dive into where we think Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole are headed in 2025. I missed you guys for the last two days,

but today I've got Mike Alfred and Chart Guys. Both decided to show up the day after a major holiday. True American heroes. Let's go. Let's go. What is up everybody i hope you're having a wonderful day i'm scott melker also as wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel hit the like button you guys know what i say every time change it up a little bit this time it is the day after christmas it is hanukkah it's chris mQuanza, Hanuk, Kwitsika, whatever holiday you happen to celebrate. Happy holiday.

Coming into the New Year's, we obviously did not have shows for the past two days, but here we are coming back strong with the legend, Michael Alfred. Sir, how are you today? Great. How are you doing, Scott? I am doing great. And this is important because on just a couple of days ago, got off your weekly Sunday morning video call with your quant, incredible guy, ran 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the future all by hand,

95,000 Bitcoin starting price right about where we are, and a 76.4% of the outcome that Bitcoin surpassed $180,000 by March 21st. Do not fade your quants. Impressive guy to get that so accurately. Yeah, you can guess he's probably in his early to mid-20s, probably fresh off of a stint as an analyst at an investment bank. Goldman. Yep. Dark hair, dark eyes. Parents wanted him to be a doctor. That sort of thing. Parents definitely wanted him to be a doctor. Okay. So listen, you always have a little truth wrapped in sarcasm on tweets like this. I think we've all come to

know and love that that's the case. 180,000 by March 21st, though, you don't usually just throw out arbitrary numbers, even in your sarcastic tweets. I assume that means you think at least in this cycle, we're headed to those prices, if not higher. Yeah. We've talked about this last year, $200K, sort of my target from kind of $30K, $40K. My high target from $16K the bottom was three 15. I still think 300 to kind of 500 is where you should be looking for a blow off top. If we get like a really nice move post strategic Bitcoin reserve and a couple of other things go our direction. But I think 150 to 180 is sort of like the low end target. That would be if like the cycle disappoints. And I do think a big chunk of that move could happen in Q1. Right. So I think Q1 should bes. And I do think a big chunk of that move could

happen in Q1. So I think Q1 should be quite good. I think the next two to three months is kind of the key two to three months for the cycle every four years. So we're in that window now. I think people who are getting really cute around trying to short Bitcoin or trying to predict whether it's going to bounce off 92 or 88 or 95 or what's happening in the very next few hours or a few days, I think that's penny wise pound foolish. Because I think it's almost certain within a month or two, we're going to be a lot higher again. Just like we were pre-election where we were saying at 60, 70K, we're going to 100. Now, nested right under 100, I think we're going to 120, 130, 140, $140, $150 in the short term.

So look, my quant, my quant, I'm not going to reveal their identity. I pay them a lot of money to do this type of work. Trust me though, if Bitcoin does go to $150 or $160 in the next month or two, I'm going to be retweeting that tweet with all caps. I'm just going to say, do not fade my quant. You you're drinking aquapana too yeah aquapana wagyu i got i just bought a bottle of screaming eagle for myself yesterday screaming eagle and a bottle of harlan estate never had them before never had 100 acre either i'm just i'm just at the point in my life where i'm like i gotta taste everything dude i had a friend who was went on a golf trip with a

some billionaire buddy on his plane and they somehow got their hands on the stanley cup on this trip and the guy poured like five bottles of screaming eagle into the stanley cup and they were drinking screaming eagle from the stanley cup that's exactly what i would do that's so we're like that that's peak bull market by the way guys if you see that happening on on x screaming eagle is very uh expensive wine one of the most expensive actually um and uh if you see that happening it's going to be a good time to sell that might be our signal actually well actually i mean it's not that expensive i mean i got a bottle for 2400 christmas discount um so i mean look it's it's only a 2021 none of the like hardcore wine drinkers are going to be impressed by that,

but I don't care. I don't buy these wines to stick them on the shelf or like impress anyone. I buy them, I open them. I look at them objectively compared to the others. And I say, you know, I still think Insignia for the 2018 Insignia for 250 is a pretty good value compared to Screaming Eagle.

Isn't that what we were drinking in Vegas? Yeah, we had the 20, I think we had the 2018 or 2019 Insignia. Thank you again for that. Scaramucci sent me a whole case. That might have been a top signal that I was paying for the Insignia and Wagyu that night. No, I don't think so. I think that's a mid-cycle thing.

When things are going to get a lot crazy, I think people haven't been around one of these bull markets before. They're just not aware that nothing we've experienced up till now is very interesting from a from a bitcoin cycle perspective like if you look back historically like the moves are much more significant on a percentage basis than what we've seen so far and you need the vast majority of the general public to be interested. Again, no interest. There are some people that are DCAing into Bitcoin, right? There are some grandmas and grandpas who bought the ETF recently.

But the euphoria that you typically see before any sort of top is nowhere to be found. And that gives me a lot of confidence that we are going higher. I mean, calling for 180 or 200K right now is quite easy. It was much harder to do that a year ago, a year and a half ago when we were talking about those types of numbers but this is what always happens right you start to move up and then all of a sudden people can imagine higher prices and then the kind of influencers who don't really have any guts or aren't really that brave they show up now saying oh 150 200k is coming it's like how is? Of course, 50% up in a bull market for Bitcoin is not so bold. We're going to that level, right? This is the halving year. This is the year before the big year. The way I think of it is 2025 is the crux year. Everything up until now is just

positioning for 2025. And in a large part, you can see most of the cycle returns in a few months during that crux year. That's where we're at. So I'm watching January, February, March quite closely. I think the end of this year has been disappointing for people who know these cycles pretty well, but that doesn't really mean anything because the cycle could start one day and two weeks later, we could be up 30, 40, 50%. I think it's just a time for people to sit on their hands and either add to positions or stay put. But nothing's really happened yet from my perspective. Yeah, I agree.

I think this is just the ramp up. Well, you talked about people dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin. We just get to quickly give our praise to this guy. MicroStrategy buys over 5,000 again this week. So 561 million, actually a small purchase for him of late. They were all over a billion, mostly over 2 billion, I think for the last five weeks. But clearly, Michael Saylor is not afraid to continue dollar cost averaging at any price. And these were at like 106,000 a coin. So as he says, he'll be buying the top forever. Yep. Yep. He sure is. And he is a genius. I called him a couple

years ago, one of the best- I met you at his house. Yeah, yeah. But I called him a couple times before this run, probably going to end up being one of the best investors of all time in history. And that was kind of an unpopular call because the Wall Street Journal was saying his career was over a couple years ago but you have to be early and you have to be non-consensus you have to be right i think you know what he's doing is obviously really good for the ecosystem i think everybody wins if if the if wall street will keep providing this much capital and i think they will for a while um then you know that's good for everybody. I just worry at the back end of the cycle, I see people getting more and more and more excited about the equity as the price goes up, which is the exact opposite

of what you want to do as a long-term investor. I was really excited about MicroStrategy at the bottom. And last year when it was underperforming for most of the year in 2023, that's when I really liked it. And by the time I was up 16X from last spring, that's when I started to become a little bit more concerned and started talking about trimming it. And I trimmed obviously too early in retrospect, all the way from 195 up to 535 pre-market on the week before Thanksgiving. And those were the last three, four, five trims were really good trips. Now, I still think it's going higher. I think MicroStrategy is going to 700, maybe 1000 plus this cycle. But at some point, as people get more and more excited, the returns in the future

actually get more compressed, in spite of what the kid analysts are saying on Twitter that like, it's going to go up forever. It's infinite infinite money glitch. There is a point where that stock will start to underperform simply because there's just so much exuberance in it. And it's all predicated on the price of Bitcoin continuing to go up. As you know, at some point, the price will stop going up and go down, as happens every cycle. And people who pile in to some of these things near the peak won't do as well as those of us who were excited at the bottom. It's easy to say now, but I was on your show talking about MicroStrategy, Coinbase, miners, et cetera, actually at the bottom. You can go back and look at the archives. So I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing. I'm not going to get carried away and go,

oh, let me pile into these things as they go up. No, the time to have done that was a couple of years ago. We're going to jump into the other stocks and how they've performed. I just have one comment here I need to bring up. I still think it's going higher, but I'm trimming my position. Somebody laughing at that comment. Dude, if you're just trying to time everything at the dead top, you are going to lose absolutely everything. Just telling the person in the comments, Mike is completely right. You always rebalance. You always take profit on the way up. You never intend to sell the top. You should be taking a piece off every time you see these massive moves to the upside because the risk-adjusted upside becomes less the higher it goes. So what Mike's describing is exactly how

every professional investor and trader would approach a position. You see people freaking out when Cathie Wood sells Coinbase. She still wants Coinbase to go up more because she still owns huge positions in that stock and others. You're rebalancing to make sure you're not too overweight and having too much risk. So just throwing that out there. Yeah, that's right. A professional's orientation around this market is going to be different than a hobbyist or an amateur. And that's fine. In some parts, the hobbyists and amateurs have beaten the professionals at investing in Bitcoin itself. Because the thing you want to do with spot Bitcoin in cold storage

is hold it for 10 years. That's worked really well. But equities are a different beast. And of course, if you're managing some part, somebody else's money, you have different considerations. So look, I don't blame anyone for wanting to get more excited as we go up. That's human nature. I just caution people as this cycle progresses, things are going to get crazier and crazier and crazier. And you have to at least try to protect your principle on the downside if you can. So anyway, for what it's worth. Yeah. If you sell 20% of a position to take some profit, if you're an emotional dummy, you're now hoping it goes down so that you sold the top. But if you're a smart investor, you want the other 80% to continue

up. But people really struggle with that, I think. Selling anything before the peak top. I think your position should always be whatever keeps you most balanced. So if you sell too much such that you're worried that it's going to go up higher than you sold too much, if you're worried it's going to go lower because your position is too heavy, right? And it's bigger than you're comfortable with and you need to trim it down. You should always be effectively at a neutral state. And the more skilled you are at it and the better you get at it, the more you can maintain this overweight state through the bottom of the cycle all the way going up near the top because you can sort

of stay emotionally balanced even though most people would be whipsawed out of positions, right? So I don't recommend people have positions that are as concentrated as what I've maintained off the bottom of the cycle, but I've worked really hard for 25 years to find that balance through running, right? Through my own form of meditation, et cetera, right? Like finding ways to keep that balance the whole way. But if you ever find yourself feeling like you want things to go down, it's because you sold too much, right? And so I trim for me, whatever it was, 60% of my micro strategy position off the bottom. Like my last trim I did at a 16X, 16, 17X off the bottom for me, right. So that's my actual lived return. That was more

than enough. I haven't worried at all about it going down or up since because I trimmed exactly the right amount for my situation and I didn't roll it into other Bitcoin related stuff. Most of the money I trimmed from MicroStrategy went into tobacco stocks, alcohol stocks, healthcare stocks, like stuff that probably goes up in 2026 when crypto is going down. I love the tobacco and alcohol stocks with the healthcare stocks. Yeah. I know it's ironic, but my only job as an investor is to make high-risk adjusted returns. It's not to convince anyone that all these values are consistent or even that there's values being expressed at all. I don't smoke cigarettes. I hate cigarettes and I made a killing in Altria

and Philip Morris. And I think you'll continue to do well in those stocks, especially if we get another downturn, which I do think is coming in the next 24 months. There's going to be some sort of liquidity downturn. It's going to take down the same stocks that went down in 2022 and 2018. And if you're all in, 100% all in on levereded crypto exposure you're going to be down 80 90 percent again and you know just at this stage of my career just not interested in that anymore it's called a net zero portfolio you're an effective hedge fund by having you know uh health care stocks alongside the tobacco and the alcohol but i do want to go back to crypto stocks obviously uh the block ran this article yesterday the best and worst performing crypto stocks of 2024, MicroStrategy, CoreScientific lead the way. I mean, you've been on top of every

single one of these on this show, which is why I bring it up. CoreScientific obviously came out of bankruptcy, right? So I think that that had some extra upside there because people thought it might be going to zero, but you can see the ones that kind of did the best. And it's interesting to see this sort of differentiation between the winners and the losers i guess even specifically in in minors right because there's some that clearly outperformed massively to the upside i mean you got like katyd down down five percent right and you know i kind of iris and show me the worst show me the worst ones because bit farms is down 40 percent marathons down whatever it is 10 12 percent riots down 20 percent there they are there they are yeah look 5 32 this year was really a story of a reversal of what happened last year like if you

look closely at the 2023 returns the miners crushed microst and Coinbase. And actually there were points in the year where they were up like, some of them were up 600, 700% when MicroStrategy and Coinbase were up less than 100% for periods of time or 100 to 150%. This year, there's been a reversal of that where with a few exceptions,

and by the way, Core Scientific was going through a bankruptcy in 2023. So like, this is what happens in markets. Everybody turns negative on one idea at the end of the cycle, and then they flip up. They're little micro cycles within the major Bitcoin cycle. I think we're going to have another one of those in 2025, where you just could flip that list over again, and you'll see some of the laggards become the leaders again. This is just the cycles of life and markets so i don't read too much into it i look at the full cycle returns and the clear winner is microstrategy

off the bottom like they're crushing the best like the best miners like cypher and iron and terawolf off the bottom um they're they're half the return of microstrategy right so like if if you were just judging from the absolute bottom till today, you've wanted to be in MicroStrategy. I'm not sure by the end of next year whether that'll still be the case or not, but either way, as long as you own all of them, you've done fine. I think the distraction is to get looking at any shorter period than that and saying, okay, over the last month or the last six months or even year to date, which again is another arbitrary period, who did better? So look, I still think 2025 is the key year. If 2025 ends up being the key year where we have exceptional returns in

some of those names, you may see some reordering of that stack ranking for the full cycle again. And that's actually what I'm expecting. I am expecting some movement in that. I think the MicroStrategy outperformance could continue for a while, but I think by the end of the cycle, especially from the higher and higher levels, like if you bought at 535 in MicroStrategy, you're probably going to lose to Bitcoin and miners for the rest of the cycle. If you bought MicroStrategy in Q1 or Q2 of last year, you're probably going to beat everything. So some of it is a function, they show these going to beat everything. So some of it is a function, they show these returns on the screen, but some of it as a function is your actual experience as an investor. Where did you buy? Did you FOMO into something that had already run a lot? Did you wait

until there was a sentiment was really compressed? I think right now, stuff like Iron and Cypher still looks really good to me because not only are their economics improving every month, they hit all their forecasts, by the way. And they're mining at like 29,000 a coin. I listened to a bit of the call. Iron's at 15 joules per terahash, right? The most efficient large fleet in the industry, 31x hash going to 50 with Bitcoin at 95k. Like, look, you don't have to be a genius.

That's going to be a really, really profitable business in 2025. And you'll start to see those earnings flow through separate from the fact that everybody's monetizing their AI exposure right now. And I think Iron in particular has one of the best sites in the world to be monetized. And I think Cypher has a number of good sites that have power available immediately. And we've seen some of the larger deals that the hyperscalers are trying to do with other utilities getting blocked. We know the nuclear stuff's going to take four, five, six years if it ever really takes off.

So I think 2025 is a key year. And you want to go into a year like 2025 with negative sentiment. If you go into 2025 with too much exuberance, again, the returns will be compressed. And I think that's actually what MicroStrategy's biggest challenge is right now is just there's so much excitement about the name.

In the meantime, by the way, the stock has sort of topped out temporarily, right? It had that one exuberant day where it had the big red candle reversal. It went into the 500s and the 300s in the same day. Yeah. 535 back to 370. I was actually driving back from somewhere and I put in a pre-market order and I was watching it. Every time I stop, I look, I say, holy crap, this thing is really reversing. And we're still sitting below those levels and Bitcoin hasn't really done anything. So that is what happens, right? When you have something trading at such a kind of premium driven off of exuberance. And so I think you see the reverse thing in some of the leading miners where nothing is wrong with the company, from my perspective. They're executing

exactly on their plan, but there's always a lag between that execution and when the market gives you full credit. So I think that's what's coming in 25. I lose zero sleep over this stuff, right? Like I've been around long enough to know that anything that looks like dramatic outperformance in very short term usually reverts to the mean and anything that looks like dramatic underperformance usually reverts to the mean. And so I think we'll see that kind of yo-yo this year. And I think we'll see signs of it in the next month or two.

Like I think it's basically prime time now. So like if you don't see some movement in the miners with Bitcoin at 120 or 150K, then now I got to start to re-examine my original position. But I'm not worried about that because I'm pretty confident that's where things are headed. What do you make of Marathon Riot, Core Scientific, the miners that are following the microstrategy path with the convertible notes to sort of be sailor. We're not seeing other companies do that, but now we've seen a number of miners try to do it while they're also actively mining Bitcoin. So another way for them to gain more Bitcoin.

There is a bright line between people who are using the convertible note structure to get capital to expand their mining business and their infrastructure and people who are using that capital to buy Bitcoin. And when you look at that divergence there, the people who are not using the capital to buy Bitcoin have very good, efficient mining operations and are hitting their forecast. So if you look at the most recent ones to do it, Iron, if you look at CleanSpark, if you look at Ter clean spark, right. If you look at Terrowolf, like they're all hitting their targets. So they're not tempted to just buy Bitcoin, which is to me like a bit of a diversionary tactic, because if you actually have one competitive advantage as a miner in late cycle, it's that you can produce the Bitcoin at cost while everyone

else has to buy it at market. So why would you take that advantage if you have it? Why would you take that and give it up to be just like the companies who had the advantage earlier in the cycle because they didn't have the headwinds of dilution coming from expanding their mining operation or buying machines or the halving or any of these things? So I look at it a bit more skeptically. I'm happy that people are doing that because paradoxically, it's really good for the good operators. But I think as you go into this late cycle mid to late cycle dynamic you actually want to own the infrastructure and generate the bitcoin at 30k you don't want to buy it at 100 or 150k even if the market's essentially giving you what looks like free capital by the way the capital is never free

people who use the structure last cycle and weren't able to pay the notes down, they went bankrupt. Of course, scientific is a good example. So you can't just stack debt forever, right? And not everybody has the same scale as microstrategy. So a lot of people will follow them- Or the same appetite, or there's just not that much appetite for the notes. There's a different appetite for a microstrategy convertible note than there is for that core scientific note, right? And even that demand will turn over if the liquidity cycle turns over, which all tends There's a different appetite for a microstrategy convertible note than there is for that core scientific note. And even that demand will turn over if the liquidity cycle turns over, which all tends to happen at the same time that Bitcoin goes down. So everything will look like it's frictionless and it'll just work, it'll work, it'll work.

And then all of a sudden, one day it won't. And at some point between that day and the absolute bottom of the next cycle, you'll be down 90% and almost all the stuff. Question is 90% from what level? And my suspicion is at some point this year, you'll be up so much that it'll be hard to imagine losing money. And of course, if you're up enough, you could lose 90% and still be up. But I think a lot of people are going to do the opposite. They're going to not be in now because they've been scared by the macro prognosticators for the last two years, and they're afraid that Bitcoin's already topped out. So they're not going to be in, they're not going to be in, and then they're going to get in because they just can't stand the FOMO anymore at 150 or 200k Bitcoin. And that's actually the point of highest risk, because those people are coming in without the embedded returns

of those of us who've been in the last two years or longer. And then they write it all the way down 90%. And those are the people who complain. And those are the people the Wall Street Journal writes the articles about. It has nothing to do with what I'm doing as a professional. I just kind of trade around that. When I see those articles, I think I told you this recently. There's an article, JP Morgan says the mining business is terrible. Well, that was a short-term low. Literally, the article came out, if you bought the miners, then you doubled your money in a bunch of them or more. That was September timeframe. So that was a great time to buy them. The next time I see an article saying miners are the best

business in the world, that'll be a good time to trim them. So you just got to watch for those things and you kind of fade that sentiment. it's usually a pretty good indicator of where we are. Yeah. And we were talking about sort of volumes increasing, even though price is only at 95,000. We have some obviously anecdotal evidence here that there's an insane demand right now for Bitcoin. We have a 14 billion option expiry tomorrow. This is the biggest in derivate history. 4 billion of those are in the money. And then crypto OTC deaths say trading volumes are going gangbusters right now. So even what you're not seeing on exchange right now behind the curtain, and obviously with options,

we're really seeing the highest volumes we've ever seen. And that makes sense why Bitcoin's kind of lagging here, right? Because if it is true that a lot of the market makers might be exposed given how much price movement there's been the last couple of months, you might see Bitcoin kind of bounce around these levels, maybe a little lower, a little higher until tomorrow. And then it could rip over the weekend and start. I just think we're days away. The one tweet that I posted recently that I actually feel pretty strongly is that we are days, if not just a couple weeks, away from the beginning of the next major move that'll take us from the 90, 95K level to 120, 130. And we could literally just be waiting for this options expiration. We see open interest ticking up even as the price turned down. I think a lot of smart people understand that

we're at the part of the cycle where your odds of success are so high that it just doesn't make sense to be short. We're probably not going to hit 120 or 130 by New Year's Eve, but if we're back at 105 or 110, then we'll hit it in January. And that's close enough for government work. The key here is nobody needs to get this stuff exactly right. If you want to do it like I do for entertainment value, fine. But the goal is not to get it exactly right. The goal is to get it approximately right and directionally right over long periods of time and do it in enough size to matter. And again, if you've just been long Bitcoin from the bottom and you stayed long and ignored all the hype and the FOMO and the negative sentiment and

the news flow and all that stuff, you've done really well. You're up over 5X, 6X-ish approximately. So that's pretty good for an asset that you just had to hold for two years. Yeah. So I know we're supposed to be going right now, but I'm going to bother you for a couple more minutes, hopefully. What do you place the odds of the strategic Bitcoin reserve at happening? I mean, how do you handicap that? And are there any other sort of white swan catalysts like that you could see that could really be the thing that kind of doubles, triples Bitcoin in a matter of a month. I don't know if there needs to look.

I think the SBR probably happens under Trump. It seems like he's committed to it. It seems like such an easy thing to do, right? It doesn't actually, from my view, require that much of a lift. You don't have to buy a ton in the open market. You can just take what we already have and add to it steadily over time. He hasn't put into place anyone into key positions in the new government that would be against doing that. And I think he's very sensitive to market prices. I think he realizes now that equities are important, but so is Bitcoin. And he's probably going to use Bitcoin as a barometer of the success of his presidency. And so he'll be wanting to do things to drive it. I'm not sure

it matters. I think Bitcoin's programmed to go higher and we may find articles later in the cycle that go, oh, that makes so much sense. If we had known that was going to happen, we would have known for sure we're going to $200,000, $250,000. But I think it's foolish to think that those things are predictable. I think it's more important to just have a general sense of where it's headed so yeah i do think it's happening um but i don't think that necessarily even by itself is going to be the reason why it goes up like i i agree i just think it could be you know listen there could be the difference between hey our normal cycle top is 250 and all of a sudden it's five or 600 because something crazy happens yeah yeah no i look i i think 500 is possible i think 315 is still a good target i think 200 150 to 200 is most likely

but again all those things if we talk in three months and we're at 200 and the sbr hasn't even been put in place yet then you know you got to start looking at higher targets um you know on the mining side the core weave ipo like i don't think there's going to be any top in miners until at least then so if that isn't until april may time frame you're gonna have a whole wall street like they it's it's seasonal right they they kick up a lot of dust in the spring and then they kick up a lot of dust in the fall and things go quiet over the winter uh you know over the holidays and over the summer time right kids are out of school like you you're doing stuff with family and so things are going to really get hot again january february march um it's just the cycles of life and the question is just like where is bitcoin go in

that window uh what announcements happen in the mining ecosystem? How much appetite is there for the microstrategy convertibles? How many more nation states decide to do something with Bitcoin? How many other corporates that are non-Bitcoin related decide to follow Saylor? How does the FASB rule changes actually affect earnings? You're going to see substantial earnings from a number of companies that hold Bitcoin that, of course, those of us who are paying attention know are coming, but the market is going to be shocked by that because they'll say, holy shit, how is this company generating so much earnings? And a lot of it's, yeah, it's an accounting change more than anything real in the business. But keep in mind, it's a reversal of many years where all

you got holding Bitcoin was the markdowns and not the markup. So it is fair that now people are going to report these higher earnings because for years they had to report lower earnings when Bitcoin went down. So look, there's a lot of things like this. It's hard to handicap exactly how that plays out. But I think the best bet is Bitcoin higher and in particular Bitcoin higher in the next one, two, three months. I think if we do this show in exactly three months from now, we can go back and replay this clip. If we're at 100K or lower in three months, I will be concerned. What are you doing on March 26th? I'm available, but listen, there was a time I think on your show where I said, if we're still

at 30, 40, 50K, September, October, November of this year, I'd be concerned. And of course we were at 60 something heading to a hundred. And so it's very, very quickly. These undervaluations get corrected. You'll you'll, I think you'll see that in the next three months. And if, and if you don't, again, I'll come on the show. I'll be the first to say, look, I thought we'd be higher than a hundred K in March. But I'm just just i just don't think that's going to be the issue i think the issue is going to be we've gone up so much that we're trying to figure out whether we're having a short-term exuberance and that we need to be more cautious or whether we have a lot more to run i think that's what we're going to be talking about in three four months totally agree mike any

uh final parting thoughts and where can people follow you the The secret is it's Mike Alfred. Yeah, just stay long. Bitcoin, I think even Ethereum could start to perform well over the next quarter or two. I think MicroStrategy, Coinbase, the miners, they'll all do well. I do think the best miners have a lot more upside from the current level. But I think, as I've said from the bottom of the cycle, you just want to hold as much of these things as you can, as much size as you can. That's the best way to win here. And then be watchful for exuberance. We will see a top at some point, but it won't happen until most people you know are interested in what we're talking about, and they're just not interested right now. Yeah. Totally agree. Thank you, Mike. As always, I'm marking March 26th. Misha in the background

there. March 26th. It might even be a Sunday. I don't know. Happy New Year. We're going to come back in three months. Happy New Year. Happy New Year, man. Thanks again. Always a pleasure.

All right, guys. 180,000 March. Or the quant is fired. We're going to bring on my other quant here. Chart guys. Quant. What's your quant saying? My quant, he's not responding.

It's the holidays. No, I've got no quant, but it would be nice to have someone else to point to, especially when things go wrong. Yeah, of course. All right. So what are you looking at here? We've got two nice and clear levels in the short term.

This is the four-hour chart. Clearly, we're struggling just under 100,000. Not surprising. Nice round psychological number. And of course, that base down at 92,000. And just knowing where we are, holiday week heading into the weekend, it would be entirely possible that we just bounce around within the sideways range through next weekend. As we talked about on the show last week, the weekly consolidation at this point, there's no red flags. We can even see a break of 92. And the upper 80s, if they hold, that's still just fine. For me, it's always that EMA 12 on consolidation.

If that holds, then the retracement, there are no red flags. Oftentimes, I like to see a break of a key level that, you know, there's a bunch of stops centered around, you know, flush those stops. And then if you bounce right back up into that range, you know that there's an ample amount of demand still buying those dips. So that's something to be keeping an eye out as well, but nice, clear sideways range. Yeah. What do you think it means for altcoins? They've been suffering pretty bad here in the last, not so long, but I guess in the last two to three weeks, we kind of had a bottom on dominance and then it pumped back up again. rotation. There's some that are still holding on just fine, like XRP. It has a base similar to Bitcoin. Its base is just under $2. It's weekly consolidation. Considering where we just came from, it's fine as well. But more of the altcoins, the retracement is definitely more than the bulls

want to see in terms of 50% plus of the move that they saw up, they've given back. And so again, it's just, you know, and that's a lot of what to do with this sentiment in the crypto space. Just, you know, I have so many friends that are in town that aren't, you know, market friends, but they're in the market and their focus is all altcoins due to the, you know, the risk reward potential of, you know, more paying for my buck. If I want to make money, I want these altcoins. And they're not loving what's been going on over the last three, four weeks during this period of consolidation because they've seen half of their gains over the last couple of months given back. So that's a large part to do with the sentiment that we're seeing. Yeah. So what else are you looking at? I mean, it's such a weird time of year,

obviously, kind of here between the holidays, but anything on your radar? I mean, we had that NASDAQ sucker punch, which again, it's just over leveraged longs. You flush them out and in the V-shaped bounce that's been happening for two years at this point in the broader market. So it's nice to see that response. And for me, this looks like a sucker punch. And then I'm getting confirmation saying, okay, no big deal. This is just how we go up in strong bull markets. You get those periods that flush people out. So good to see that there's no lingering fear in the broader market. We're back up looking at all-time highs.

Same thing. We might chop around here sideways into the start of the new year, but we have a new line in the sand, and that's that fear low from just a few days ago. And the simple statement is if that's holding, there's nothing to worry about. I am watching the crypto stocks, MSTR also testing its EMA 12, Coin is testing its EMA 12 on the weekly. I'm watching Coin here battle this previous resistance level where we topped out a bunch and then we hold it as support. We're trying to hold it as support. So pretty important zone in the 270s there. But again, they look like altcoins

in the sense that they got their leg up, they're pulling back, they're looking for the weekly higher low. Some names are tracing more than others. Again, to the point of the miners underperforming, that has been glaring. And'm constantly watching, you know, I'm not, I'm not buying them now and assuming that relative strength is going to return, but I am watching for it. You know, is there going to be rotation back? Because again, they've just been chopping around and doing a whole lot of nothing for six to eight months at this point, many of them. And, uh, you know, I, I'd much rather as a bull be focusing on coin and MSTR. But again, it's not giving up. It's like, is it time?

I'm watching. And again, the same way that we do, you know, altcoin divided by Bitcoin to see relative strength and weakness. You know, I keep an eye on MARA divided by MSTR to just see, you know, yeah, it's still significantly underperforming. And, you know, that has to change if I'm going to have any interest. That's interesting. So you're sort of viewing MSTR as the Bitcoin versus altcoins and everything else needs to outperform MicroStrategy or why even bother? I mean, that's kind of what Mike was

alluding to as well. It changes what I use as the barometer. Sometimes I'll look at the strongest miner in the group and then compare everything to that. But clearly, MSTR is the crypto stock this cycle at this point. And so that's the leader that I compare things to just in terms of is their rotation out of MSTR into other places. And we saw some of it, coin divided by MSTR, saw a nice bounce once MSTR had that blow up top, uh you know it's not sustaining at this point so just watching where the money is rotating to and at this point there's nothing glaringly clear uh as far as that rotation among crypto stocks so what else are you watching uh as you step out of sort of crypto you obviously show the nasdaq which is still doing better than uh crypto right now so for all the uh correlated uh people i saw a lot of green on that NASDAQ chart

that I wasn't seeing in crypto charts. Yeah. The GME, I started watching GME a few days ago for the first time in a while, just because when you look at thousands of charts, you have a backlog of a library. And I made some nice profits on Tesla's four hour ascending triangle where it started breakout mode.

We have a horizontal resistance level and then just higher lows getting tighter and tighter. And that broke bull to the all-time high run that we just saw. And so I pulled up GME just randomly and was like, hey, this is the same pattern. There's a clear horizontal resistance. We're seeing these little higher lows. It's a weekly bull flag, which now has confirmed today. And just knowing that Roaring Kitty knows enough about charts, it's like, if I'm going to put out a tweet, I'm putting it out in up open and a break over resistance. Nice to see that play out, but just a lack of resistance nearby on GME. Once you clear 3370, there's really nothing nearby. Just getting my attention again for volatility for trading. It's always fun to watch on Twitter.

It's like a picture of a present on Christmas and people just dive down the rabbit hole of trying to figure out, you know, what's he mean or what secret codes are in here. For me, it's just, you know, a fun game playing the flashing numbers and they're going up right now, although pulling back as we speak. So let's see if bulls really want to hold the back test to that resistance zone as support. Absolutely. That's all you got up there. Yeah. We're waiting C mode for Bitcoin again, sideways. If we break 92, just don't stay below it too long would be my request of the bulls by that dip to keep that weekly chart nice and healthy. And then yes, we'll be looking for that weekly higher low and to move back towards those recent highs in early 2025. Perfect. Well, thank you as always, man. Really, really appreciate it. Hope you have a wonderful new year and I hope that the market also continues

to have a wonderful new year in through 2025. Guys, you can follow Dan, Chart Guys, of course, YouTube, X, everywhere he's at. Dan, I'm going to let you go. I got one more thing I need to talk about. All right. Have a great one. See ya. All right, guys. Since we usually talk about app toss on Wednesdays, it was Christmas.

We're here. It's Thursday. You can see it up in the corner right there. The big news, obviously in the last couple of weeks with app toss, for those who weren't tracking is that my dear friend, most shake, uh,

stepped down to CEO, still on the board. And Avery Ching, who is basically, uh, running the, running it with him, uh, has stepped up as CEO, still on the board. And Avery Ching, who is basically running it with him, has stepped up as the head of Aptos. Very big news. Listen, it makes absolutely no difference for Aptos. I just love having the excuse to talk to Mo all the time.

So it makes me a little sad in that regard. But I'm sure he has amazing things yet to come. You guys obviously know you can check out Aptos, Aptosfoundation.org. But just to show you as that was happening and people were concerned about it, well, it hasn't really mattered from a development perspective. This was the week, December 16th to 22nd, but we haven't talked since then. Aptos had 1.599 million new users in that one week period, now have an impressive 40 million. Basically, they've gone absolutely parabolic as the market has started to ramp up. I really think that this is going to be one of the winners that sees real adoption. Obviously, I choose very

carefully and have been working with them for many months before bringing them on as an official sponsor. Really excited to see what they are building, see what they have coming for us. Excited to see what Mo does after this. I can't wait to find out what that's going to be, but did sort of cause a little bit of flood, which I just think is hilarious. Like as if the blockchain somehow changes or the adoption somehow changes because different people are running it. All right, guys, that's all I got for you. I'll be back tomorrow, I think, with the Friday Five, and then off probably all of next week. We'll be skiing.

So that's all I got for you today. I will see you all tomorrow. Peace out. Let's go.