The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Hit $250,000 This Year, Even With Tariff Insanity

Episode Date: April 10, 2025

Charles Hoskinson predicts Bitcoin will surge to $250K by year-end—even amid Trump's escalating tariff war! I'm joined by Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, to break down exactly how these tariffs could shake up global markets, impact crypto prices, and what you need to know right now. Plus, don't miss Dan from The Chart Guys, who'll be dropping essential market insights and actionable trade ideas in the second half of the show. Peter Tchir: https://x.com/tfmkts The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys ►► 🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Tariffs The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The continued yesterday with Donald Trump pausing tariffs on most countries for 90 days, those who did not retaliate, but upping the ante against China, leaving many to wonder whether this was the plan all along, or maybe his friends on Wall Street who called and said enough is enough, were the reason. The bond market seemingly almost broke with interest rates flying even as stocks dumped. A very confusing macro environment, but Bitcoin rose alongside other markets yesterday when Donald Trump said the pause was happening. We also have Charles Hoskinson of Cardano saying Bitcoin is still going to $250,000

today as the mag seven will all adopt stablecoins. We have a lot to talk about. I've got the amazing Peter cheer here joining in a few minutes early and of course, chart guys on the back half. Ready for a good show? I am. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. As you can see, I'm obviously not sitting in my normal studio.

I spent the day yesterday as you probably saw on X cleaning up the ocean a small island in Biscayne Bay in Miami Beach right off of Miami, completely uninhabited. We went out there with four ocean and cleaned up trash and picked up all the garbage and threw things away. But the amazing part was that I did it with Dana White, the CEO of UFC. There's an angle to that that's still under a news embargo for the moment that will hopefully be coming out next week.

But it was pretty awesome. I got to interview him along with a few other amazing legends. I got a little bit of a sunburn because I didn't know that I was going to be interviewing him on a deserted island in Miami. When we made the plan, I literally showed up at the airport yesterday morning. I took like the 4am flight. I was in pants and like a shirt looking all presentable and they were like, you need to be in water shoes and a bathing suit. So got out there. No food,

no water, no sunscreen. The things we do to save the world guys. I see that Peters here So I'm gonna go ahead and bring him on and we can start discussing tariff Palooza Tariff Palooza That that's my new name for it as we know obviously yesterday We had a pretty significant move by Trump basically saying we're gonna pause tariffs for 90 days and China's still getting the full brunt of everything that Trump has to offer but everybody else were willing to negotiate. A lot of people on

both sides of this issue as to why it happened there was also that moment where Donald Trump went on truth social and said, that's a great time to buy stocks right before the news was out, which is just insane. What do you make of this before I jump in with my opinion? So one, if Trump says to buy stocks next time, I might not be so dismissive. And there might be some ramifications I'm thinking about for Bitcoin, because I think they go ahead with some of that. But on the terrace, this has just been an epic disaster as I look at it. And you know, we came out of the Rose Garden, everyone was expecting reciprocal. I think the world was kind of fine with reciprocal. And to me, reciprocal kind of means, okay,

you put 10% on me, I put 10% on you, etc. And we came up with these just bastardized numbers, like things that made no sense and targeted everyone. And it was very irrational. All of a sudden, I think it was the treasury market. It wasn't so much treasury market. Treasury is a part of it. What you were seeing is corporate bonds blow up a little bit as well. High yield spreads were blowing out. You had several investment grade companies couldn't. And I would say for your entire audience, I would watch one ticker whenever you get times of stress. It's VCSH. It's a Vanguard short-term fund. It's one to three-year corporate bonds. That's something I know the Fed watches. I've spoken to the Fed about. So they watch that both

for price level and to see if it's trades at a discount to NAV. That was starting to crack a little bit. Nothing like obviously COVID, but I think that was causing screens going to Besant telling him to do something. So now we're here I think it's very unclear what deals are gonna be like. I think he's gonna be tough negotiating I do think he somehow believes Vietnam should buy as much from us as we buy from them Which is just I think ludicrous when you look at the GDP per capita and things like that The one thing that I can't tell I think this is gonna be the most important for world markets is China played him very different this time around, right from day one. Xi was here at Mar-a-Lago, Trump 1.0, every time Trump mentioned tariffs, Xi was on the negotiating table.

This time he's played very tough. I can't tell whether he would have played as tough had Trump not attacked everyone. Now China's out there on their own island, but I do think Xi is playing him very different this time because Xi thinks this deck is stacked different than Trump's thinks it's stacked. Yeah, I had actually tweeted, you know, Trump had a strong hand but got called twice. You sort of laugh what makes you think it's a strong hand. I was trying to be politically correct and not say Trump bluffed. So that's the truth. But either way, what was interesting

about the initial Liberation Day, as you said, was they clearly got 70 calls or 75 calls from every country which you would anticipate. Most of them were probably like, what the hell, bro? But China immediately went over the top. So if you're playing poker, it feels like Donald Trump had pocket sevens or something, and tried to show strength and got called. But then more importantly, I think Powell called, right?

And Powell said on his meeting on Friday, listen, we now think inflation is going to be a bigger problem, effectively saying we're not gonna be able to lower rates, which is what Trump was kind of looking for. And then we had bond yields all over the place. But now I mean, 4.3% higher than when we started all this Liberation Day madness. So leading you to believe that if the effort was to bring down the interest rates, they

can refinance the debt, all that, that's still not working here so far. So, and we also had reports, Trump literally said, I couldn't believe it yesterday, that Jamie Dimon called and said, we need to do something basically. You know, Bill Ackman, it's very clear, there's a long list of billionaires who said enough is enough.

Yeah, I think, and even with this, I'm still not sure what you'd do if you're a CEO of a corporation, right? Okay, do you change your supply chains? Cause supply chains because you think these are coming back on? Do you play it as a status quo? And then I think you got to go back. Trump, I do think, really thought he was going to get this income from tariffs. If he's not going to get that, what else is he going to go after? I still think there's a risk that he starts trying to say foreigners have to pay a tax on their treasury, have to pay some fee for the privilege of holding treasuries.

I think we're far from being done with kind of weird trial balloons. And maybe that's the best way to describe it. He will throw things out there that no other leader would throw out because of the potential backlash. And he's just not afraid to do that. Okay, I keep getting told that I have TBS on Twitter

and in the chat. First of all, I will once again say I have TBS on Twitter and in the chat. First of all, I will once again say I'm registered unaffiliated and equal opportunity critic of both parties and their policies. This is not a statement that I don't like Trump, but we have this 4D chess narrative. And I think to put that to bed, first of all, we obviously had Hassett, who's his lead economic advisor. Basically,

it was fake news two days ago that he had leaked that we were going to get this 90-day thing, but then it ended up being real news. Apparently, he just said it too early, right? And that that was probably in the plans. But he just went on CNBC this morning, I don't know if you guys saw this, and he said, bond market influenced the tariff decision, but it didn't cause a panic. So you can't say that this was completely planned and then have your lead economic advisor literally go on TV and say bonds were a problem, so we had to do something.

Yeah, I think I'm with you. I find now I'm disagreeing with people who I used to kind of agree with and vice versa. And I think what I try and do in Georgia, I think you do the same is you try and provide logic and facts and cut out as much as the political because people who are making decisions need all that stuff cut out.

And I do find it frustrating that every time you try and point out a flaw, you're just told you're too stupid because it's 40 chess and well, okay. When 99% of the world sees flaws in this and then you have to back down it probably wasn't 40 chess. I think what he is playing is a game where they've sat out and laid out what they think all the other countries will do and they're not responding the way he thought. Not only did G immediately come back, think about Europe. Europe didn't come on their knees immediately. Europe was starting to talk about terrifying services. I'm sure some of

the big service industry, tech companies had their ear full into Trump as well saying, whoa, if he's tax us, this is really bad. I mean tariffs are a blood force instrument when there's nuance and a hundred other ways you could go and a hundred things that even the president and his top economic advisors would not be able to see at the industry level to your point or at the corporate level of how this could affect. You don't know exactly how this is going to affect Apple, right? And what exactly what chips they're making or what they need from China or what deal they're working on. So you have to imagine that American corporations who by the way, pay these tariffs, they're

the ones who paid the tariffs to the United States custom, how they reacted to your point and called in to say, this can't happen. Yeah, one thing that's kind of plays onto that, we were at the Naval War College this summer and played a war game and it was, you know, China blockading Taiwan. But the neat thing to me was, I never really thought about this way, but during that war game, they had the US government as a separate entity from the US corporations. And I think that's really resonated with me is that Trump behaves as though there's this US company and there's a German company.

And all these big companies are multinational companies. They've got constituents across the globe. They're all working their supply chains to maximize their efficiency. They know they have customers in Italy, so they have to do certain things in Italy to keep them happy. And Trump is trying to shrink this into what may have worked really well a hundred years ago where you did probably have US companies versus German companies versus Japanese companies. All the big companies are really so global, especially the US juggernauts, right? 40% of earnings for the S&P 500 comes from overseas

and I think he's been so disruptive in how he plays this and it's just not very well thought out and one of my pet peeves has been you know he talks about autos and European tariffs on autos Europe tariffs are autos 10% we tariff their autos at two and a half percent I do not believe that seven and a half percent difference or even the 10% is why US automakers struggle to sell cars into Europe. US automakers have figured out they make a lot of money selling pickup trucks and big SUVs. Those do not work in Europe. We make plenty of money here. Germany, you know, Mercedes makes all sorts of cheap Mercedes that they don't bother sending to the US because it would degrade their brand. Like things occur and tariffs,

I think, are a tiny fraction of the issue and maybe not even a big important thing at all in many cases. So yesterday, obviously, as a result of this policy and, of course, him saying, hey, buy everything, Dow was the second biggest day for the NASDAQ ever, right? Up 12% on the NASDAQ, which is pretty crazy because just a few days ago, we actually saw the fake news reported, fake news that was a few days early, and in 10

minutes saw 10% move on the S&P, which is insane. An insane level of volatility that you shouldn't see in a healthy market no matter what the news is, in my opinion. But now we have Dow futures dropping 500 points, S&P down roughly 2%, Nasdaq down a bit more. After yesterday's historic move, is this normal? I mean, are people just kind of absorbing it and saying, okay, let me actually think about this and, you know, maybe the problem isn't completely solved. By the way, China is the only thing that really matters because that's, you know, we get most

of our things from them. I mean, what do you make of this? And I should note, I think the last big move like that was in 2008 in the depths of one of the like worst markets that we've had. And these huge volatile times to the up and downside generally don't occur in a steady bull market. They're in the depths of a bear market when people are just looking for an excuse

to get in and out because they're panicking. Yeah, I completely agree. I was joking that this is like living through TARP vote every single day, and someone told me that I was underestimating because at least TARP vote was scheduled. Like this is just, you're sitting there in a meeting and all of a sudden you're up 11% on some tweet.

I think it was overdone. I would say I've been very cautious about liquidity as a whole. I think there is very little depth of liquidity and every market maker is providing less and less liquidity. They're creating wider bid offers and smaller size bid offers. So any move just amplifies it and it gets triggered. So one thing I have not been comfortable using stops right now in this market is I feel this market just whips you through stops. So you to me you're better off playing as much smaller size and comfortable that you

might be down 10% on nothing or and how do you play that rather than relying on stops because I think you're just going to get whipsawed and taken out of good trades if you rely on stocks. relying on stops because I think you're just going to get whipsawed and taken out of good trades if you rely on stops. I just think it's wild that what you just described is how we've always had to approach trading illiquid altcoins in crypto, but you're talking about doing it on the mag seven and the SPY and the market in general. I mean, that's crazy that you guys are now having to worry about long wicks in both directions. The Darth Maul candles we talk about, where you get the up and down and end up in the middle on Nvidia.

Yeah, right. It's crazy. And, you know, you had I think TQQ, which is the triple average queue like that was up 30% yesterday and retail bought a ton of it on Friday and Monday. So they did phenomenally well. well. But this market's just, like you say, it feels like you're trading a mean coin. I would say it feels to me a lot like an emerging market country, right? Like where you get these swings because one politician says something and there's still even questions about whether Trump has so much authority really in tariffs and things like that. This whole thing is just very messy. But yeah, I think you're right. We now have to trade everything much more cautiously, like it's two or three levels down in terms of liquidity than it used to be. That's crazy. Just taking a look, this is the 10-year yield. I mean, obviously it had that spike yesterday and naturally came back down,

but still higher than where it even opened yesterday before this happened now at about 4.35% looks ready to bounce back up again. And you go and look at the S&P, that was the monster candle yesterday, but still not back to last Wednesday. Right. So we have Trump, obviously he loves,

now he loves the market again, which is good. Huge credit because nothing spooked the market again, which is good. Huge credit because I nothing spooked the market more than the guy who said literally, like throughout his campaign and last administration, I look at the stock market as a gauge of the success of my administration. When he went for a few weeks, they're saying we don't care about the market that scared the market, I think as much as they feel. Well, yesterday bragging about you know, how well the market you're doing after he did this deal fairly, but also we're still not back above liberation day. So it feels like even with Bitcoin,

which I love that move, it still feels like we're in this range of tariff nonsense. And there's nothing really clear to celebrate yet. Yeah, remember when Bitcoin broke 100,000 and Trump said you're welcome to the Bitcoin community. And we haven't seen 100, thousand now for a while. So I think the same sort of thing can happen here stocks He drove it. It's very illiquid this combination of leverage ETFs lack of liquidity zero data expiration I think it pushed us well through and I don't think we should be back to where we are in the Rose Garden You know before that announced because the announcement was so bizarre like you have to have some lack of trust. And my current theme has really been the American brand. And I think Trump has done something where he's so fixated on trade, he missed the intangibles, benefits that we had from being kind of this world leader, right? Capital flew into the US, people wanted their capital in the US. That's been reversing course. I think people wanted US brands globally, right?

There was an association with that and one of the quotes one of our generals I work with 30 retired generals and admirals many of who've been in various administrations with these guys But they quote the Singaporean defense minister. So not a huge person on the world stage, but the quote to me resonates it's like the US went from being a benevolent benevolent superpower to a landowner extracting rent. And I think that's the worldview right now of the US to some degree. And I think that's, I don't know that that's changed. Like, you know, in a relationship, you say that one thing that you wished you hadn't

said and you can't take back. I feel we've broken some things that are much more permanent with these countries. And yeah, they'll come to the table, they'll smile, they'll do deals. But secretly, I think everyone's trying to figure out, oh my god, how do I avoid having to deal with this guy? I mean, does that look like an acceleration of Bricks rhetoric or trade deals from foreign countries? We had news that was actually pretty cool for us that Bolivia, Russia and others are actually doing energy deals in Bitcoin right now. That's cool in Bitcoin. It's not so cool, obviously, if you're the global reserve currency

and want all those deals done in dollars. I think there's a sentiment that China, as you said, is on an island now. But do you think that this could push others towards China in some degree to do more trade, to minimize their exposure to the dollar? Yeah, I think if you're Canada, for example, I'm Canadian. Okay, we had this great deal. We send down, I think it was a great deal for both sides. We've got all this heavy oil from the tar sands. We ship it to the US. The US has built refineries that handle this very well. That equation is getting broken. You have softwood lumber, all these things. Who's the biggest importer of raw resources outside the US China?

So you've got a copy call China and see what they is there a deal to be had and again It seems silly that we kind of took all these Things that have been designed very well together and cooperative and it's I think this hatred of trade So yeah, I think people are gonna push towards it and I haven't bought Bitcoin in a while I think everything was overdone yesterday, but I probably will be buying it through the ETS just it's simpler for me that way. Because I probably have to trust that this administration is going to,000s when I've already seen it in 109, looking at the historical trajectory of the asset, if you zoom out, not concerned, as you said, even with your stock positions going down 10, 15, I'm not concerned with Bitcoin going down 20 or 30 with implied volatility.

It's going back in the hundreds eventually. Right? I have no doubt about that. Now I want to hit you with an article here that is our title, because I would love your opinion on it as a not necessarily focused on Bitcoin everyday guy like us. Bitcoin hit 250,000 this year and magnificent seven to adopt stablecoins. This is from Charles Hoskinson, the Cardano founder. It's interesting we get hyperbolic price predictions about Bitcoin. I don't think any of us really care if it's December 31st or next February or not my audience, right? But I don't care.

I don't know if it's going to 250,000 this year, but the sentiment there is that whatever we're doing now is a hiccup and we're still heading up. What do you think of that? Yeah. Yeah, I think everyone's going to have have to rethink the dollar as you know, this reserve currency. And I can see that people will start looking at Bitcoin again. I was, I would have said before all this a month ago, highly unlikely big corporations look at it. It was just it doesn't fit. There's also you know, obviously, micro strategy or strategy loves it and has this whole strategy built around it. I think it was going to be very difficult,

but I think all, you know, Trump took the table and threw it over and he's putting the pieces back together on this table, but no one's looking at the same. So I think people are going to explore it. I don't know that it goes that quickly. The one thing I would love to see to get really comfortable with Bitcoin,

I would like to see the MSTR premium to its holdings shrink. I feel that's an impediment and until that shrinks, it's going to be hard for Bitcoin I think to really rally. But yeah, I think we're all stuck, including myself, having to rethink this because the world's just changed in the last week. So let's take the other side of this entire tariff argument so it doesn't sound like we're screaming with TDS here.

Maybe this was a masterful move, maybe getting 10% on everybody was the end goal to isolate China. And maybe eventually that gets us the external revenue service that Lutnick was talking about. I still see personally just this conflict between, if it's a negotiation tactic, that's basically saying tariffs are bad, let's get them down.

If it's not a negotiation tactic, it can replace the IRS, external revenue service, the future of America is funding our government with tariffs. But if this is his plan, what do you think happens in the next 90 days? It's not like this is permanent. Now it's just like we have a 90 day clock on the insanity to some degree. Yeah and again I think he's going to push very hard for

countries to, I think if he just said to countries even without going through all this, hey reduce your tariffs, people would have done that. I think tariffs are less of an improvement. Yeah my question was like why not just go after China and everybody would get scared and see what happens? That was my thought, but maybe I'm not. That was kind of our thought. We view China as our strategic competitor. China's the one that we've got to pull things away from. We would have used Canada and probably Mexico.

Yeah, and I think Mexico tried pretty hard on the border. Trump has done a phenomenal job on the border, right? That was one of the things he was elected to do. He's done phenomenal. So I think my issue is he is probably gonna demand quotas from countries to buy our goods. I'm not sure every country can live up to those quotas. I think he may try and put demands

that countries can't trade with China. I'm not sure other countries can live with that. So I think we're a long way from getting these deals and it's really unclear how much he was bluffed. I'm sure he was getting 70 phone calls because everyone had to call. I'm not sure how much were people begging for deals versus more what you said,

like what the hell's even going on here? What are we doing here, man? Give us a 30. Actually, I'm still, because I haven't spent the time on it, I don't know if I'm clear on what the 90 day pause actually means, who it refers to specifically, how that's going to be calculated. I think a lot of that is still up in the air as well. So I'm assuming he's still getting those calls. Yeah. And, you know, he still has the potential maybe to target pharma, right? So my understanding,

again, this is a little bit vague, is the tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain in place, the global tariff on steel and aluminum, I believe, remain in place. So we might get a headline tomorrow announcing pharma tariffs or tariffs on something else. So again, the true social tweet or whatever, I don't know what it's called when you post on truth social. Yeah. It lacked clarity. Certainly. I call, I call it truth thing. True thing. Okay. Um, but yeah, so I think there's all sorts of other potential avenues. He goes down because I don't think he sees a pharmaceutical. Tariff as being anything at all to do with his reciprocal tariffs.

Right. Yeah. There's, there's so much more on the table here. I do have to kind of bring up one piece of news because it's really relevant for us. Paul Atkinsley, the SEC has entered crypto from the area has been confirmed. I can't speak to how that affects price or any of these beaten down tokens and projects and companies that will benefit from this, but it's important for us. And to be quite frank, Hester Peirce has already done all the things we would have hoped for from Atkins by rolling back the Gensler era. But still, as you think about our industry and you try to eliminate all of the global

madness and the macro and the tariffs, my feeling, and I don't know if you share it, Like as you think about our industry and you try to eliminate all of the global madness and the macro and the tariffs, my feeling, and I don't know if you share it, is still that things are headed in the right direction. Yeah, I think people are going to adopt more and more stablecoins. I think Circle, for example, really set a high standard early on. It's great that I can look at the BlackRock ETF that has Circle's investments. You can see what they've invested in. They created a lot of transparency. I think that's forced the hand of some of the industry to do these things that make it much

more investable. People who aren't as comfortable with the technology or the ecosystem, that's a high degree of comfort. Okay, I can pull up the BlackRock fund fund that Circle invests in I can see those things So I think there's gonna be developments I think you're gonna start seeing you know to me someone's maybe gonna start figuring out a way to pay interest on stable coins Then it becomes even more interesting right? Okay, now I can get some interest because if they're sitting there buying T bills and burning 4% can they pay me something? So yeah, I can see a lot of potential innovation and And for me, the starting point is probably gonna be for larger investors You look at stable coins, you kind of dip your feet in and go from there

I don't think the altcoins are ever gonna catch on in a material way. I just can't there's just too many They're too easily created And you know Besides from the fact that they'd may be very effective for politicians to raise money, but that's a separate issue My take on that is that there will be a select few that do exceptionally well, and it'll look like the dot com bubble and the rest of, you know,

you get the seven or eight amazing Amazons, Googles, and such that come out of it, and the rest of them will slowly wash away, I think, as they kind of have. One thing I can say is, so some of the people I work with were very big, you know, and, you know, the operations side of, you know, and you know the operation side of you know

Big banks and things they all seem to love ethereum and yet ethereum just doesn't seem to do well Is there a big case for ethereum or is that just going to continue to languish? That I think there's a big case for it and it may still Why not both like the little meme, you know Yeah, so I think things like that, again, to me, some of the people can kind of get on board a bit easier with Ethereum where there is this use sort of case away from just wealth effect and limited number. Well, I can say that Ethereum has somewhat bounced right off

of the 2018 highs. We took a time machine back, so not looking horrible there. Peter, I gotta go to Dan from the chart guys I appreciate you great man You really break it down and I think in terms of everybody can understand can't wait to have you back again soon Thanks again, and really do appreciate that you're out there kind of Diligently telling what your views are and why and it's it's been very helpful for me to follow. I try Thanks, Peter. have a good one.

Take care, bye. All right guys, before we jump over to Dan, I want to tell you obviously about our awesome sponsor that we have here on Thursdays and that is LBank. As you know, Endless Incentives, no KYC on the exchange. If you sign up, you can get trading bonuses, reduced fees, referral bonuses, basically everything you can possibly want for signing up. And as I said, no KYC with certain

thresholds. You can see the exchange pop it off right here. Good segue into Dan, because as I'm looking at this chart, which is the four hour on L bank, you can see a perfect double bottom that broke the swing high right here, confirming the double bottom and a perfect double bottom that broke the swing high right here, confirming the double bottom and a perfect retest of that. Ooh, that's kind of nice, Dan. I'm looking at that chart. That is a classic perfect double bottom.

It's testing and that's exactly what I'm watching on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 as well. We're not testing yet, but we have a double top same spot and we're we're fading back down Let's just look at that real quick while we're on the topic So here's the NASDAQ and again, this is the double top the most important information I'm gonna get over the next day or two is does this hold as support on the back test because going straight up is great But if you don't build supports along the way the retracement can can be more significant. And we're still in downtrends, daily downtrends on a lot of names. So, as you've mentioned, back in 2008,

we had multiple bounces of this magnitude that did result in lower lows. So obviously we're not in 2008 at the moment, but that just reminds me that there's still work to be done and there's still gonna be massive opportunity in both directions. In a healthy bull market, you don't get 12% moves to the upside or downside. It just doesn't happen.

And I'm not saying we're in a bear market. I'm just saying that you can't draw as many conclusions with this much volatility. And it tends to be the fact that those are eye-opening. A lot of people are really excited to short the top of yesterday. I can just tell you that. I've never seen anything like this. And trading fully into all the markets, I'll say 11 or 12 years, I was in penny stocks before that,

but it's very unique. And as your guest, Peter, was just talking about, liquidity is a major aspect of the volatility that we're seeing. And yeah, it just means, you know, I like what he said. I'm still using stops. He's not as much, but I like what he said about sizing down. You know, I trade Tesla, day trade Tesla all the time.

Uh, and you know, I'm using 60% of my position size, what would be a normal position size because of this volatility. But, uh, with regards to where Bitcoin stands, it's still, you know, back testing monthly EMA 12 like last time, and we know the bulls want to hold that level. And I'm just watching the possibility of a daily falling wedge. And you know, falling wedges, all patterns have a very different probability based on prevailing trends. And I'll you know, if you're in a monthly, weekly daily downtrend, falling wedge means

nothing to me, but it has to align with the most likely scenario on a longer term timeframe. So I'm watching for the possibility that Bitcoin has a daily falling wedge to shape up a monthly higher low. Because for me, the monthly higher low compared to 49,000 is the most likely scenario. So it doesn't mean I'm buying off support, it just means that this is my visual guide

and when it breaks bull, my statement will be, that's either the monthly higher low or I'm wrong. And if we were to break the low after that, it would be a red flag for me as far as the longer term for the rest of 2025 really. So just going to keep paying attention to this again, still daily downtrends, most altcoins not even doing anything on their daily timeframes. There's a couple that are standing out to me.

I like TRX for a little bit of relative strength. I like it's tightening sideways range. Over the last couple of months, that tells me volatility is coming here. And CRV is just another one that stands out in the sense that we didn't break to the lower low, confirming the weekly bear flag. So there's a support level nearby that's still holding,

but vast majority of all coins drop into lower lows. XRP is another one where a monthly higher low is the most likely scenario and there is a potential falling wedge type of setup shaping up. So again, that's just another one that I'm going to be keeping an eye on into next week. But again, you know, sizing down, just being protective. I'm more cash than I've been in years at this point. 2022 is the last time. Good job, Buppet. I sold it. I wish I sold more cash than I've been in years at this point. 2022 is the last time.

Good job, Buppet. I sold it. I wish I sold more. I sold 20% of my seven year holding a Bitcoin at 105 because again, my mindset was if we top out on a Trump meme and I don't act, I'm going to feel like an idiot. And so it was just idiot protection is really all I was doing. But I didn't sell a lot. I didn't sell any Bitcoin because you know, whatever.

But, uh, last week and even after, like at the beginning of the first drop, I did trim a lot of stock and then I use that might buy Bitcoin in the mid seventies. So, yeah, we'll see how it works out. That's my cash position. You know, right. Yeah. That makes sense. Yep. Um, and again, you're watching in this mayhem.

I mean, not really. I mean, the major names, Tesla, Amazon, NVDA, they have so much volatility. It's insane. But again, if you take me back in time a week and a half ago and you say, hey, the NASDAQ is about to drop 15% in three days and Bitcoin is going to be trading at 79, 80,000, I'd say, whoa, that's a big win. So have to keep it in perspective. People talk about the decoupling.

I think it's gonna be extremely hard to decouple with the ETFs and all the automated trading systems that everything's so linked in this global market world. But again, all things considered, Bitcoin bulls can't be too displeased with where we stand compared to the broader market. I totally agree with that, Dan. Thank you so much, everybody.

Give chart guys a follow, give Dan a follow. Check out YouTube, his YouTube, his Twitter, everywhere else that he's at. He has endless content like this. Thanks so much, Dan. Thanks, Scott. See you. I have to run in two seconds to go too serious. I'm just laughing at the comments.

Scott, you are just too stupid to understand the tariff issues and the consequences of doing nothing. Yeah, you're actually not listening to me. I've never said we shouldn't do anything. I never said there wasn't a problem. I question the method in which it was done. You can't call me stupid. I mean, you can, it's fun actually.

I'm pretty stupid. You can call me stupid. I mean you can't it's fun. Actually, I'm pretty stupid. You can call me stupid uh I guess I I don't think that questioning the means at which a problem is solved makes someone stupid actually just feels like maybe you're a sheep who thinks that a Great leader whatever he does is perfect and that he can do no wrong. I view him as a human person who's gonna make good decisions and bad. I gotta go get on Serious Guys.

I'll see you tomorrow for the Friday Five with NLW. Bye. Let's go.