The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Hit $90K Soon | Mike Alfred

Starting point is 00:00:00 Is Bitcoin heading to $90,000 in the very near future? My guest today, who you've seen here and is generally right, Mike Alfred, thinks we're heading there and heading there soon. And he's going to make that case. We're going to talk about that. Of course, everything else happening in markets and with Bitcoin. Chart guys on the back half, as always on Thursdays. Let's go.

Starting point is 00:00:43 What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. The title today is based on a tweet from Mike Alfred, which also had articles written about it based on the same tweet. So pretty high conviction here. We could be heading to 90,000, not saying tomorrow, but in the very near future. So let's talk about it. Good morning, Mike. How are you?

Starting point is 00:01:06 Good morning, sir. How are you? Jealous because you told me you're going to have really good seats at the Laker game tonight. Well, if you look behind the Nuggets bench, you might see me, but no promises. I said, I'm going to take a bunch of screenshots and try to find the most awkward facial expressions you have and share them on share them on X. But yeah, let's talk about this, right? This is the tweet that sparked a whole lot of attention.

Starting point is 00:01:30 DXY dollar index hit resistance at 106 as expected and has started to turn over. A move back towards 102, 103 will turbocharge this rally. The timing makes sense because Bitcoin is primed to move to 90,000 in the short term. Longer term, I expect DXY at 92, perhaps by late 2025. Actually, that aligns very well with my analysis on DXY over time, that it will eventually be well under 100. But let's talk about the 90,000 target and how you surmise that. Well, sometimes in markets, there's a confluence of different factors. And candidly, also, there's just experience and intuition that comes into play. I think that Bitcoin is just programmed to go to those levels. And so when I look for factors that could drive it to support it, occasionally, I'll find a few. But in this case, I feel like there are a whole bunch of them.

Starting point is 00:02:26 And if you look back to last year, Scott, you remember we did this show, I think a couple times. In August, we did one where I said Bitcoin was going to 40K. Yeah, we were like 25, maybe 25-ish. I remember. Bitcoin was bouncing to 25, 26, 28. People were super negative, super bearish as they always tend to do during these cycles. They flip negative right before the rip and 40,000 seemed kind of crazy. We ended up hitting that in early November, I think. And then from there, of course, we kept going into the new year as we hit new all-time highs before the halving. I think we're in a similar kind of setup here. People have flipped

Starting point is 00:03:03 a little bit negative because of the slowdown in sort of the big tech complex. The US economy is clearly slowing down. There's some justifiable fear, right? Like when you see meta, a stock that hedge funds love to hide out, and I call it hedge fund hotels. These are stocks that have become such consensus longs that essentially there's no reason for you to stay in business if you don't own them. And so everybody piles in, not just the tiger cubs, but all of the index funds. And even my uncle who hated tech stocks 15 years ago loves QQQ all of a sudden. So we're just at the end of the line in terms of people's fascination with tech.

Starting point is 00:03:42 And so as the air comes out of Tesla and Apple and Meta and even Nvidia a little bit around the edge, we saw it with Supermicro over the last couple of weeks as well. There may be some very, very short-term weakness in Bitcoin as people tend to associate Bitcoin with the larger tech complex and the queues and things like that. I think that's Pennywise, PoundFuelish. I think Bitcoin's more driven by its own internal cycles. It's driven by the liquidity cycle. It's driven by money leaving China. It's driven by fractals. It's driven by Elliott waves and other technical factors. And so I think we're sitting at a really high value area here in the low 60s. We could go down, in my opinion, to 50 or 55 or 58. But again, all those levels would be

Starting point is 00:04:27 buying opportunities because I think in about a month to two months out, we'll probably be in the 80 or 90K range. And again, to directly answer your question, the fundamentals, in my opinion, are really good. Third, the deficits that the US government is running are huge. The national debt is huge. You can see with the GDP numbers slowing down today, there's going to be more of a reason for the Fed to eventually start to lower rates. As we look out, the market will price that in months in advance. Again, money's leaving China. There are other governments that are going to need to print. And so the liquidity environment, I think, is about to get a lot better. We've got the Hong Kong ETFs coming. We've got the support from the US ETFs. I could go on. There are a few

Starting point is 00:05:10 dozen different things. Yeah. I mean, I think within the Bitcoin cycle itself, as you said, it's nothing but tailwinds. And I think that people just perceive that the only headwinds if we see a market-wide drop outside of crypto in general. This is the article on CoinDesk that obviously was written effectively referencing your tweet and quotes you. But there's one other thing that I want to show here, kind of looking at the Bitcoin chart, because I was just thinking about it as you said it. This was that time, right? And anyone with a brain said, listen, when we broke 25,000, which was here, you could see the kind of $25,000, this candle right here, that was the end of the bear market. Some people will say

Starting point is 00:05:49 the bear market ended at $16,000 or $17,000, but it's hindsight to say you knew that the bull market had started at the very bottom of the bear market. But for me, $25,000 was the first higher high in an entire cycle down from $69,000. Then to your point, we ranged from April all the way until October from basically 32 to 25. And this is when we were talking, it was down here. And just like now, when you're at the bottom of a range, people get exceptionally bearish, right? And it's just range. And we've had them every single range

Starting point is 00:06:20 all the way on the way up and you get the sweep of the bottom of those ranges and then price tends to continue up. It's a story as old as time. single range all the way on the way up and you get the sweep of the bottom of those ranges and then price tends to continue up. It's a story as old as time. And there are good reasons for the, again, the tech names to pull back. I'm not necessarily saying like they're not bad businesses, right? There's nothing wrong fundamentally long-term in my opinion with like Meta or Nvidia or Apple or Tesla or Netflix or any of these companies. But their expectations for how their performance should go from here, I think, are unanchored

Starting point is 00:06:51 from reality because the past performance has been so good and because they've got these systemic flows via like the 401k plans, for example. Basically, the most unthinking money in the world piles into the same set of stocks. And so yeah, the money can come out of those and it doesn't necessarily have to have anything to do with Bitcoin other than in the very short term, it affects sentiment around the edges. So you're seeing people turn kind of macro bearish on equities and macro bearish on risk assets. And I think this might be the cycle where we find out whether Bitcoin is not really a risk asset. I think those of us who studied it know that it's fundamentally not a risk asset, but

Starting point is 00:07:31 it's really hard to make that argument when the short-term correlations hold up and support the argument that it is, in fact, a risk asset. But that can come apart, right? That whole argument can come apart if we see differentiated performance. I mean, one day we're text dumping and Bitcoin puts in a $5,000 to the upside candle and we have a different conversation, right? And we've seen it kind of in both directions. But this is the story of the day. Clearly, Zuckerberg asked for patience as Meta's AI push spooks investors overnight down as much as 19%. I mean, sizable move. I remember when they went down 30% or 40% in a matter of 10 minutes that one time, I believe last year,

Starting point is 00:08:11 but down 20% effectively because they've said they're spending billions more dollars than anticipated or previously reported on AI. And a lot of people who watch Meta stock know that when it really turned around from the lows was when they cut expenses. It wasn't even about how much more money they were going to make. It was about how much more money they were going to save by getting rid of a staff. And so when they say, hey, we're going to spend a hell of a lot more money, we obviously see this big drop overnight. We've seen NVIDIA showing weakness, to your point, a lot going on sort of in tech. And when these behemoths move, they tend to move the market. Yeah. I don't know if it's my connection or yours, but I think I lost you there for a second.

Starting point is 00:08:58 But I was just saying when these behemoths move, they tend to move the whole market. So one bad earnings and you see all tech down. Nvidia has shown weakness before even this. So now you're starting to get all the red flags for tech. Yeah. This, in my view, again, somewhat predictable. The market's been too focused on a handful of names for too long and everything else in the S&P has underperformed. And so for a long time now, I've been expecting the equal-weighted S&P to start to outperform

Starting point is 00:09:27 as some of these other sectors catch up to tech. And it could turn out that tech is just the best industry in the world for the next 50 years. That might be true. But again, Bitcoin is not a technology stock. It's not a competitor of Microsoft or Apple directly. And it would only take a short period of time where Bitcoin dramatically outperforms that group, I think, for people

Starting point is 00:09:53 to recognize that, in fact, they're not the same thing. Yeah, I totally agree. And we've had this notion that ETF inflows would be steady and would never end and would put in a guaranteed price floor for all time, which we all know that with a rational thinking, inflows can be outflows, right? And BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF snapped 71-day inflow streak. A lot of people panicking because they had one day where they were not having inflows. But this is one of the longest streaks in history of any ETF having steady inflows. So I think one day is not cause for panic. But of course, it becomes a huge story. Right.

Starting point is 00:10:37 And we saw that daily inflow of 120 outflow, excuse me, of 120 million yesterday. So there are some people selling these. Yeah. Yeah. And this was always, I just don't think any of this stuff is going to matter. I think what happens is people become maniacally focused on like the very, very short term. And of course, by making shorter term predictions, I am participating in that game a little bit. But I don't recommend people trade on this other than to, if they don't have enough Bitcoin yet, use any drawdown, any weakness at all to make sure you top up your position, right? Like it's not financial advice, but it sort of is, right? Like you should probably

Starting point is 00:11:17 own more Bitcoin and all things being equal, you'd rather buy it at 62 or 63 than 73. And if we see 55 or 50, you'd rather buy it there than at 90. And so again, my prediction is shorter term in nature because I do think May and June are going to be quite good. Between May and July, at some point in that area, there's going to be a massive spike, in my opinion, in Bitcoin and the miners. The miners are already sort of setting up for that. You could see that since sort of setting up for that. You could see that since kind of Wednesday of last week. They'll be down again today, but they're all up quite a bit. Riot rallied off of the high sevens to 12-something yesterday. I mean, it was up more than 50% in four or five trading days. I expect that those stocks can do

Starting point is 00:12:00 200% or 300% in that window. And that's something that I'm gearing up and preparing for because the leverage, the operating leverage you get in the mining sector as Bitcoin goes up to 70, 80, 90K is significant. And people forgot about it because the halving was such a negative catalyst that was scaring people out in the future that they didn't want to imagine what would happen to minor margins at 90K or 100K. It was too far away and the having was too guaranteed and too scary. But that catalyst is gone now. And so what I've been telling people is the asymmetry has flipped over where for the last year, year and a half in the mining sector is like, what could go wrong? And if it could go wrong, it probably would go wrong. What I think is about to happen for the next 12 to 18 months is a lot of things that people aren't expecting might go right. Like for example, transaction fees might be higher than you expect. Bitcoin price might

Starting point is 00:12:54 be higher than you expect. Global hash rate might be lower than you expect. And margins might be higher than you expect, right? And I think we're going to see significant earnings in that group. Their earnings reports start in a couple of weeks from now in early May. There's a handful that are earlier than that. I think we're going to see significant gap profitability in a bunch of those names. I think those names will start showing up on traditional equity investor screens. And I do think now basically is going to be one of the last kind of loading zones this cycle for both those names and Bitcoin itself. Sure, you can still buy it at 90 or 100K. If it goes to 90 or 100K, I think Bitcoin can go

Starting point is 00:13:31 to 150 or 200. But from a risk standpoint, risk management standpoint, I would rather see people take bigger positions now when the sentiment is negative and when people are a little bit afraid again, than wait until there's euphoria. Like there was this guy who tweeted in your replies, Scott, I know you saw it. He was like, stop the madness, stop with the predictions, like wait and see what happens. And I'm like, well, literally that's what we do in investment markets. We make predictions about the future. Right.

Starting point is 00:13:58 And then we place our bets accordingly. And if you wait, you're just a spectator, right? You're just a tourist. You're just watching. So anyway, it's what it is. People can say whatever they want, but it took a lot of conviction last year to be allocating heavily to Bitcoin at 20, 25, 30, but it was the right decision. I continue to believe it's the right decision now in spite of all the short-term negativity. What invalidates the idea? Obviously, if you have a thesis and a premise and that something is going to happen, for some people, it's a level on a chart. I keep hearing, if we lose 60, that's it, bear market, right? We're below the range. And that's one theory. But is there

Starting point is 00:14:36 something fundamentally you could see or that could happen even outside of Bitcoin that can be significant enough, some sort of black swan that would invalidate the idea that we might be going to 90 before 40 or something like that. It depends on your time horizon, right? I mean, obviously the prediction of 90 in May or June is not going to happen if there's a global depression collapse that causes everybody to sell every asset they can into fiat so that they can pay their bills. Again, like meta going down 16, 18%, it's going to scare some people, but it's not the end of this economic cycle. In my opinion, it's actually a healthy correction and rotation away from something that's worked really well for the past 15 months. So I don't think that's going to happen. But if we were in the fall of this year

Starting point is 00:15:27 or end of this year, and we were still at like 30 or 40K Bitcoin, I'd start to become concerned that perhaps I'm wrong structurally about the value of Bitcoin in this current environment and in this economy. But I think that's just really unlikely because the math of it says that as long as the governments around the world don't stop printing, don't stop debasing, don't stop taking on debt and running huge deficits, that over time, maybe not tomorrow or next week or even next month, but over time, then the price of Bitcoin and fiat terms should go up. So the only way you could really be wrong about that, in my opinion, over multi-year periods is if austerity measures become the most popular thing amongst governments globally. And again, we're in an election cycle in the US. We're not going to see any significant

Starting point is 00:16:19 austerity. I actually think the GDP numbers today and a little bit of slowdown around the edges will prompt Janet Yellen to have a conversation with Jerome Powell. I do think that eventually rates are coming down. It may not be in July as I originally thought. It might be in September. But we're too early in the liquidity cycle, in my opinion, for that to be a significant risk. So yes, if Bitcoin's not at 90K by the end of, call it by the middle of June, let's say, I'll invalidate this specific prediction, but I won't really- But then we'll just say 90K in October, right? I mean, because that's my... For me, as you said, it's a timeline issue. Because even if you ignore all of this and we just happen to fall right back

Starting point is 00:17:02 into the four-year cycle, we know that you get a halving in four to six months of boring and then up in the fall. I'm not saying that will or won't happen, I said, in the next couple of weeks feels like the most high probability period for Bitcoin that I've ever seen. And it went through the week and it went from 36, 37, 38, 39. It was low 40s in a week. And there was just a confluence of different technical and fundamental factors. I think we're sitting at a very similar area. We might see a few days of weakness as follow through from this meta blow up and some of the other stuff that's going on with US tech stocks.

Starting point is 00:17:54 But I think as soon as next week, there'll be a significant move at some point. And I think it's pretty simple. If we're at 75 in the next week or two, then it sort of becomes inevitable. It's amazing how. If we're at 75 in the next week or two, then it becomes inevitable. It's amazing how quickly these things shift. At 63, it looks like we're going to 60 or 55. But if you get to 73 next week or the week after, all of a sudden, everyone's going to flip positive and it's so reflexive. Everybody flips positive and it's like, oh, it's inevitable.

Starting point is 00:18:21 We're going to 90. The hard part is to make that call on a day like today when it definitely has a more of a negative kind of Paul cast over the market. You can kind of feel the negativity brewing. I mean, that's why we get ranges, right? Euphoric at the top and complete panic at the bottom when really nothing's happening. And that's what we've seen in every one of these. I mean, this is that period you were talking about, went from 30 to 44 in just a matter of seven or eight weeks. But then you had two months of consolidation with the same sort of sentiment that we had now, where it was, oh no, if we lose 40, we're going back to 25. I'm not saying it will or won't, but it was the exact same conversation. There were really smart people in that December consolidation where I was bouncing between 40 and 43 who couldn't believe that the ETF wasn't priced in. And I made the case

Starting point is 00:19:10 repeatedly, even to other board members of companies I'm on, really sharp people. And they just couldn't imagine how Bitcoin could be that underpriced that it eventually would be a 60 or 70K price. I said, it could do that in a couple of months. And so again, every time this happens, it usually happens because a big chunk of the market doesn't believe it's possible. So I think one of the most bullish factors right now is that even after I can rattle off a couple dozen reasons why it could go to 90k, the vast majority of people won't believe you. And I think that's really healthy. And I think as long as that continues, we're still in a bull market. So if everybody agreed with me right now, I would start to become concerned that we're later in the cycle. I think eventually,

Starting point is 00:19:50 when people see this consolidation and breakout pattern a few more times, you'll start to see more people just assume that it's going to happen. But at that price, if we wait and see, as the reply guy did, said on your tweet, if we wait and see, it'll be 150 or 180. And that's when he'll all of a sudden not need to wait and see anymore. He'll just want to pile it. Yeah. I mean, people always, you know, it's the old memes that, you know, Bitcoin at 19,000, nobody in line. And then Bitcoin at 74,000, the huge crowd piling into the door. I mean, it's just how people I think operate. I mean, this is my favorite candle ever, which is that ETF

Starting point is 00:20:25 approval that you're talking about, right? This man from 41 all the way to 49 back and then down sweep the lows and there goes the ETF, right? There's so much emotion in each one of those candles. What's cool about a chart like that is it totally obfuscates away all of that emotion. You could just see very clearly the reality of what price was in that moment. I remember what each one of those candles felt like to be in the market and reading tweets and talking to other people. And it turns out that most people just don't have enough conviction. They lose faith really, really easily and based on things that maybe have nothing to do

Starting point is 00:21:07 with the fundamental thesis. And that's why I think it's really important to have a deeper fundamental view on this sector. If you really go deep into Bitcoin and you develop a view on it, you don't get shaken out so easily by stuff that's basically shenanigans like you remember israel fired some rockets uh at at uh iran and like the market tanked but like you look back a week later and the and the price is back to where it was it was actually higher than before all that stuff uh happened and actually the more that happened on a saturday and that's because it was iran firing missiles it happened on saturday and the few people who needed something to sell or felt panic, they sell the one thing that they can sell on Saturday. Well, it happened twice. It happened when Iran fired and then it happened when Israel fired back. And both of them were like, you know, formality type of things where it was like a warning. It wasn't, they had no intention of starting a global war, but the market, at least for an hour or two, acted like it was real until it kind of sniffed that out and realized it

Starting point is 00:22:05 wasn't. But when you see an asset bounce like that, every time there's some sort of geopolitical event, like, you know, that it's gearing up, it's like building energy, it's coiling for its next move higher that once like the path is cleared, it will do that. And usually has to wait until enough people kind of get liquidated or get pushed out and you've seen the funding levels negative here for a prolonged period people don't want to take people don't want to take long positions 200 something million dollars was was just liquidated on this most recent drawdown from 66 to 63 like that's insane i don't know who's gambling that much money on like short-term moves like they would make so much more money if they just bought and held spot bitcoin right like you made 4x to here by just holding

Starting point is 00:22:50 it from you know january 1st of last year like well what more do you need uh but i get it there's always going to be a gambling instinct and it kind of drives the market it's just not something that i'm that interested in yeah i've said if you've been've been using 10x plus leverage for any time in this range, you've gotten liquidated both ways. And there's no reason for it at all if you're sitting in spots, very comfortable. And we always have these stories, but Bitcoin options worth over 6.3 billion set to expire tomorrow on Darabit. We do tend to see this sort of volatility or price pushing towards a max pain scenario when we have these options expiries. And right now we have a 0.68 put to call ratio.

Starting point is 00:23:31 I mean, people are short, like really short right now. Yeah. And if they own a lot of puts, that can create pressure for the dealers to hedge also. So yeah, I mean, look, I don't think any of this is going to matter. I think it's possible as soon as next week, Bitcoin is just starting to rally. And when it starts to move up, again, it'll feel pre-programmed. It'll feel like it's just on a line and it doesn't really matter what the news flow is and it doesn't really matter what the NASDAQ is doing. As long as the NASDAQ isn't down 40% in the next month, or 20% in the next month, or 30%, then I think Bitcoin's going higher and potentially substantially higher. So that's my call. We'll see. If you want to revisit this in mid-June, I think we'll know by then whether or not this was a call. I think May will be particularly good,

Starting point is 00:24:21 but it may take until June or July to get up into the 90 or 100K level. But I think that's where we're headed. I can tell you anecdotally from Twitter and certainly from the chat that I'm actively watching while we're talking that people are just overly bearish for the actual situation, which to me is always kind of just interesting to watch the sentiment. I mean, how long are we going to watch the market slowly drop and continue to use such bullish video titles? The market is still just in a sideways range on any given day. It's 66, it's 63, it's 60, it's 69. The market is not slowly dropping. It's consolidating sideways and people capitulate because we don't make a new high every single day. Today's price action does not change Mike's conviction of what might happen in

Starting point is 00:25:05 two months. Yep. And it definitely doesn't change it over five years, right? And again, my time horizon is five or 10 years on Bitcoin. It always has been. Most of the Bitcoin I own today was acquired in the end of 2018 and going into 2019, right? So the vast majority of the Bitcoin I hold was acquired five or six years ago, right? So I held all the way through going all the way up to 70 and all the way back down to 16, right? So like, I'm not selling because we are going from 66 to 63, because I think we're ultimately getting to a million dollars within 10 years. And that interests me a lot more like candidly five thousand dollar bitcoin move don't change anything in my life because if you're not liquidating any of

Starting point is 00:25:51 your coins and you're not spending them then it doesn't really matter like the price on the screen is just the price on the screen you could choose to act on it uh but i would argue that most people shouldn't like bitcoin is this really, really unique collateral asset. It's super pristine. It's got beautiful monetary policy. It can't be disrupted. Why would you trade that away for fiat right now? It just seems crazy to me. I just have to point out that this is the sentiment is that we're dropping, that we're dumping. Zoom out, guys. We were at 17,000 in November of 22. This has been up only with some sideways consolidation in the middle, but you're going to get bearish because we're sideways for a little while.

Starting point is 00:26:32 Just think about that. There will be a top and you'll be correct, but we're up multiples, 4X on a huge asset from the bottom. And we're talking about slow bleed. You shouldn't be bullish. I mean, I'm trying to help you guys. This guy says, Scott is triggered because he's losing so much. You're literally watching a YouTube video and complaining about the content that you're choosing to watch. I mean, think about that for a second because you can't handle the fact that someone thinks price is going to go up, then short. Well, Bitcoin is up 42.8% year to date. And the S&P as going in today, it was only up 6.97%. So Bitcoin's beating the S&P by 6X and the S&P is going to drop again today. I mean, so the Bitcoin drop is already priced into that year to date number, right? Because we already know Bitcoin is going to be

Starting point is 00:27:29 down today. We already know the miners are going to be down today. Again, it doesn't really matter though, because what really matters is like, what does the Bitcoin price do over the next one, two, three, four, five, six quarters during what should be kind of the peak of the next bull cycle for Bitcoin. And historically, those numbers always surprise people to the upside. The way I think about it really simply is I think there's probably 10 or 15K of downside max. And that's probably like, I'm probably being too bearish and saying that because realistically, maybe 55K is the bottom. So you've got like 8K of downside and you've got something like 250k of upside from here. So something like 30 times the upside to the downside. Generally, when you

Starting point is 00:28:12 see those types of setups, it's like it's sports betting. You don't necessarily have to know the winner of each game, but if you take bets where you have a slightly positive expectation 100 times, you might only get 51% right or 53% right. But if you take those positive expected value setups, you tend to make money over time. It's about systematically compounding your capital. And to me, this is that high value, the super high value area for long-term holders of Bitcoin. If you want to add or you need a new position, you basically want to start taking it as aggressively as you can now, because again, even if you go to 55, if you're at 90 or 103 months or two months, then what's the difference? Yeah. I'm in a pool where a big, a kind of a high money, high stakes pool where we bet on every

Starting point is 00:29:01 single NFL game of the entire season on a spread. And consistently, the person who wins that pool hits about 53%, 54% against a spread. Right. Exactly right. I mean, it's exactly the same with trading. It makes me laugh at the same people who will say, you have to buy the dip, always buy the dip. Then when the dip comes, say, there's the dip. Buying Bitcoin is like being the house right because it's pre-programmed to be better than than the fiat currencies that are being

Starting point is 00:29:31 printed so the smartest thing you can do with is just own it you don't you don't have to be so cute you don't have to pick every top every bottom you don't even have to do timing like yeah we're we're i'm making a prediction on timing because I'm pretty confident that we're going to make a move in the next 30 to 60 days. But in the long run, it won't matter. It doesn't matter when it goes to 90. It just matters that it does go to 90. And as long as it goes to 90, there's a pretty good chance it's going to 100. If it goes to 100, there's a pretty good chance it's going to 150, and so on and so forth. And so you should just be the house with Bitcoin. You don't have to catch every top or bottom. You don't have to make every right trade. I

Starting point is 00:30:09 think everybody who's tried to do that ends up with less Bitcoin later on. Preston Pyshko Yeah, absolutely. I know you have to go, but this just made me laugh as I was looking at it. I don't know if you saw this, but the buy Bitcoin sign from Yellen got auctioned off and just went for over a million dollars. This was the thing. But I just want to show you guys who the Bitcoin whales are. This is the guy who bought it. But this guy's appearance with that pin you as the dude who spent a million dollars to buy this sign, there's just so much wealth in Bitcoin that nobody knows about with people who have been holding this and just don't give a shit and aren't on a Forbes list and never come out in public. This is the guy. I mean, if you saw that guy on the street, you might throw him 50 cents or a dollar and he's buying a buy Bitcoin signs for a million

Starting point is 00:30:55 bucks. I just love it. Bitcoin is still a non-consensus trade with the masses. And that's a beautiful thing. Like as long as that's the case, it's still going to be a good bet. It's the moment that everybody agrees, like everybody agrees that NVIDIA and Meta are great companies, like the moment that everybody agrees on that, it will no longer have the same upside opportunity as it did before. So enjoy these times, enjoy the times where people are bearish, and they don't think it's going to work. I mean, these are good times. Yeah, this is the time to buy. All right, man, Mike, I appreciate it. Thank you for coming and laying that out. And listen, we'll just be back in two months. And if it's at 50, we'll adjust. And if it's at 90, we'll say, I told you so. It's easy. Sounds good. All right, man, guys, please follow Mike Alfred. Absolutely incredible alpha on X and beyond. And just one of my favorite follows and always so steady. So appreciate that, man. Thank you. All right. Thanks. All right, guys. Now, before we head on to Dan Charkai, who I've, you know,

Starting point is 00:31:53 we haven't been able to do it for a while because I've been traveling, obviously going to tell you guys about Loomer and once again, and now I'm realizing I need to like bring this up because if you want to know like literally why I care about this platform and why I have accepted them as a sponsor, I would just say you need to absolutely listen. I guess I got to run this. But you just got to watch this podcast. I had a podcast with Ryan, their CEO, who obviously from Titan Mining and their partners with Block, Matthew Rozak and those guys. But here's why you need to buy Bitcoin before countries start

Starting point is 00:32:30 fighting for it. A deep conversation that he and I had, great numbers, people constantly from my regular life telling me, holy crap, I listened to that. It was amazing. You just got to listen to it and it will tell you exactly why something like Lumerand is so important. Decentralizing, truly decentralizing everything, right? Because when you dig in and you see how centralized even Bitcoin mining is and certain aspects of Bitcoin are, it's important that we support people who are working hard to decentralize things like hash rate, to decentralize things like AI, to allow you control yourself. There's no ref link here. There's no affiliate. There's no nothing. It's just a platform that I think is amazing and worth checking out what they're building and listening

Starting point is 00:33:16 to Ryan, who I've become friends with and really like. So I just ask you guys, check out Lumerand.io. They're incredible and definitely worth your time to give a look now dan are we nuts 90k no see yeah i mean it's it's just fine right now as you mentioned you know the last friday was a big tell for me bouncing right off 59 when the nasdaq and semiconductors were dumping uh that's your everything's just fine at this point in time indicator. And yes, things can change. But again, even like the monthly timeframe, eventually, we're going to see monthly consolidation. And there's tons of space for a monthly higher lows, we just have to remember where we came from, let's pull up the monthly real quick, again, just straight up for however many months. And we did that last time. And granted, that's eventually

Starting point is 00:34:05 what led to a top, but that monthly consolidation led to a significant amount of upside as well. That's another 100% plus after setting a monthly higher low. So it all depends on your time horizon. If you're on the hourly chart right now, yeah, it's bearish, but you just got to zoom out a little bit, as you mentioned. And the most important thing for me is, can we hold a daily higher low into next week? And that's what today and tomorrow are going to be about for both Bitcoin and the NASDAQ. But it's about 50, 60% retracement at this point. And we need a new support. 59 has been doing a good job, but we want something a little higher than 59 so we can start progressing forward if these bulls are going to regain that control in the short term. So it doesn't upset you that every single candle is not green?

Starting point is 00:34:53 So every red one doesn't mean that the top has to be in and it's all over and that my titles are too hyperbolic and I'm smoking bull rocks? I haven't heard that one. No. I just made it up. Okay, that's good. Smoking bull rocks. I haven't heard that one. No. I just made it up. I made that up. That's good. Smoking bull rocks. Yeah. I mean, weekly EMA 12 has been my guide for a very long time.

Starting point is 00:35:12 And we've been holding that for six months at this point. And we're still testing it. We're not out of the woods. But again, it's not like you mentioned, the doom and gloom for where we stand. It's like, man, don't you guys remember? Don't you remember when we pulled back 30% plus? Like, yeah. And I actually made a tweet recently where the Who song, Eminence Front, people forget is a line that they keep repeating. And every time you get a little bit of red after a lot of green, people forget. People forget what

Starting point is 00:35:40 it's like. And that's where these liquidations come from. People get overly aggressive and forget how easy it is to pull back 20% in the crypto space. So again, it's into next week. Can we set a daily high or low and try and shape up a daily uptrend? Or do we head back down and test 59,000 again? And even if 59,000 breaks, that just means zoom out to the monthly. And for me, that would mean, okay, now we can consolidate for a number more months. But again, even that wouldn't be the end of the world from a longer term bull perspective. It's happened. I'm not saying the halving cycle will repeat, but that has happened every single halving cycle. Four to six months of super boring and then literally parabolic upside. If you guys can't wait four to six months without panicking and soiling yourself, then you shouldn't be here. Agreed.

Starting point is 00:36:29 Yeah. So what else do you got? I mean, obviously, I think we all agree Bitcoin is chopping sideways, right? We're sort of consolidating in this 74 to 60 or 59-ish, as you said, range. Want to see a higher low there? We just got to watch and wait and see right now what happens with Bitcoin. So what else are you watching at the moment while we're sort of waiting? Honestly, I had not looked at Binance in a long time. It's looking really good. Its weekly chart is even stronger than Bitcoin right now. Way stronger. I was looking at that this morning. I mean, BNB is up 12% this week. Yeah. And you look at how many altcoins have a BTC pairing that is at nine-month highs. And you can't see many that are there.

Starting point is 00:37:12 And this is, you know, BNB BTC is at its highest level since June of last year. And yeah, it's just standing out to me. And another thing, you know, anytime I love blue sky breakouts, as you know, and anytime something is near all time highs, to me, that just means it warrants extra attention. And this sideways range, we are chopping around just under all time highs. And yeah, I'm just honestly, I was just I looked at this, hadn't looked at it in weeks and was like, why am I not hearing more about Binance and how strong it is, technically speaking. And so I just found that interesting. I can tell you a sad story. So I very rarely listen to other people when it comes to my analysis. But if you guys recall, at the bottom of BNB, it looked like things were going to be terrible for Binance. And there was really no path forward before there was kind of the

Starting point is 00:38:00 resolution. And my friend ran from Crypto Banter. He kept telling me, man, you just got to sell the BNB you have. He's like, he publicly had sold his. CZ unfollowed him. He was like, yeah, there's just no way. There's no path forward for this token. I think almost everyone agreed that. And I sold mine sub 300. That's the way it goes. Yeah. Just those sentiment cycles. And yeah, looking really good now. We'll see. I mean, it's the kind it goes. Yeah. Just, just those sentiment cycles and yeah, looking really good now. We'll see. I mean, it's the kind of setup where, you know, even if we pull back from here, we're just going to keep tightening up for a while. And again, it's that weekly EMA 12. I just love it as a guide where I love making things simple in trading because trading can be very complex. You got all the indicators, all the different things we're looking at. But when I

Starting point is 00:38:43 can just say, if this red line is holding, there's nothing to worry about. It just makes things so simple. And then I can say, all right, well, if we lose the red line, EMA 12, then I take a step back and I reassess the situation because things have changed. But if it's not breaking it, then nothing changes. And I don't need to reassess because it's full control. Yeah, I totally agree. Totally agree. I mean, it's not, listen, it's a surprise in hindsight because things look so bad for Binance,

Starting point is 00:39:11 but once it was cleaned up, it's not a surprise at all because it's still a massive exchange that's now sort of operating in a regulatorily positive environment with the spotlight on them. So you can like it again. I would, you know, it was a bet back then on what would happen to Binance. And so it was wrong, but I'm glad it was wrong because a world

Starting point is 00:39:33 with a Binance that's operating properly is a better world for crypto, I think. So fundamentally. So it seems you got at least one or two more things up there. Yeah, I'm keeping an eye out on the miners. And if I weren't on this call with you right now, I'd probably be buying this gap down on Riot this morning. But I just the relative strength was really nice here over the last few days. And it's pretty much a by the news events. You know, these miners got absolutely trashed into the halving and then the halving happens

Starting point is 00:40:04 and we see this rocket ship off the lows. And it was, it's, you know, we reach a point where nobody's left to sell, nobody's left to short. And we hit the halving, you know, bearish for revenue or whatever event. And it's just all bulls squeezing some shorts. And I love when that kind of action happens that surprises the market, But then you learn about what does priced in mean and things like that. And yeah, I'm looking for daily higher lows to be the most likely scenario on these miners. I started paying attention to CLSK more because it's had some solid relative strength.

Starting point is 00:40:37 So I'm going to be keeping an eye out for potential swing entries, looking for daily higher lows and just being really patient. And the most notable thing for me is you look at Riot divided by MARA. And this past week on Monday was the biggest shift between these two names that, you know, MARA has been outperforming Riot for a very long time. And Monday, that shifted very drastically. And so that caught my attention in terms of, well, now maybe Riot's going to go back to being the bull to pay attention to. It's a bit too soon to say, but I'm just fascinated watching these miners trade around. And as a trader, there's plenty of volatility in both directions, which is all I ask for. And they're certainly giving it over

Starting point is 00:41:18 the last couple of months. I mean, I know Mike's opinion aligned with that specifically about, you know, minors hitting that sort of low at that moment. And I've even seen reports Bernstein. I know Alliance Bernstein. They said minors were a good buy and it was either a JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, Morgan and Morgan, the attorneys. I don't know, some kind of Morgan that was saying the same thing that, you know, this is kind of a moment we'll see. I guess we'll separate the wheat from the chaff to whatever degree and see which miners are strong and which are not. But those that are fundamentally strong, this should be their moment. Yeah, it could be potential consolidation of the sector to allow for some leaders to clearly be standing when the dust

Starting point is 00:42:00 settles. One thing I want to point out, technically speaking, just a little trade lesson is, you know, I used to early on in my trading career would see support break and that's bearish. But oftentimes now I'm realizing more and more, you can see a key level break. And if there's no follow through, you can look in the opposite direction. And CLSK just did that where, you know, you've got the clear support that everybody's watching, you break it, there's no follow through, and then you V-shape. And I'm watching things like BABA. I haven't been paying attention to these Chinese names for a very long time, but it looks like a little bit of Y-cob accumulation where you've got this base of support. It breaks with zero follow-through into the V-shape. And so oftentimes I look for a break with no acceptance to be a signal to look in the other direction.

Starting point is 00:42:46 And so CLSK and Bob, let's see if the bulls can confirm daily uptrends from here and try and make our way back to highs over the last handful of months. Yeah, those deviations are favorites to a lot of traders that I follow actually on X and elsewhere. Sort of those like, depending on the timeframe, like if you put that on a weekly, maybe not that one, but it looks like a wick below and ends up being sort of a sweep of the lows

Starting point is 00:43:11 before price heads up. So if you zoom out on a monthly, I guarantee that shows that it's a wick below support or something, you know, so really good alpha there. It's something that I've started to watch a lot more too, because the minute you break that support, we know that triggers shorts and it liquidates longs, right? And so that's guaranteed liquidity. If somebody's trying to fill a huge position, they might even be the one pushing it to that level. That's why

Starting point is 00:43:33 we get those sort of sweeps of the lows, the whale games, but those games are much easier to play in Bitcoin and crypto than in markets with higher volume. So it's something you see quite frequently. Absolutely. All right, man. I think that's it. I'm going to let you go trade Riot. So guys, follow Chart Guys. Maybe he'll update you later this afternoon on his channels on what he's doing here, man. Always a pleasure. Glad we're back. Guys, go follow him and check out his channel. Dan, thank you so much. Everyone, I'll be back this afternoon with Market Mavericks at 3 p.m. with McGlone and Gareth, and then tomorrow morning at 9 with NLW. much, everyone. I'll be back this afternoon with Market Mavericks at 3 p.m. with McGlone and Gareth.

Starting point is 00:44:08 And then tomorrow morning at 9 with NLW. Thanks, man. See you next time. Bye.

The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Hit $90K Soon | Mike Alfred

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