The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To Pump In The Coming Months... But I Am Selling Stocks! | James Stickland & The Chart Guys

Episode Date: July 13, 2023

My special guests today are James Stickland, CEO of Elwood, a digital asset platform for institutions, and Dan McDermitt aka Charting Man Dan, who will discuss the markets and share his trader's wisdom.  James Stickland: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesstickland Dan McDermitt: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://www.meld.fi/early-access-apply?source=crypto_banter ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Inflation continues to fall off a cliff with CPI dropping below expectation yesterday, PPI doing the same thing today. Any other three letters you can think of that represent inflation probably going down, but the Fed still going to tighten. We're seeing massive exuberance in the stock market. People dunking on bears, everybody excited, tech is going to the moon. I'm starting to sell stocks, honestly. Today I kind of hit the wall and I'm starting to sell stocks, honestly. Today, I kind of hit the wall, and I'm going to tell you why, but why even though I'm thinking about selling a lot of stock, I'm still very bullish on crypto. I've got two amazing guests today. I've got James Stickland from Elwood, and also at the back end, we got Dan from The Chart Guys. We're going to discuss

all of this and more. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and drop an elbow on that like button. Yes, I think it's possible at this point in time and at almost any other point in time to be bearish on one asset class and still be bullish on another asset class. As you can see in the title, Bitcoin to pump in coming months. We'll talk about that's coming from a story of a survey by PricewaterhouseCooper of a number of crypto hedge funds. Basically, the expectation consensus is that prices will be higher by the end of the year in crypto. And maybe that will be the case with stocks too. But I bought a whole lot of tech stocks three X ago and I'm done. Doesn't mean I'm selling my long-term investment portfolio. Doesn't mean that I'm liquidating everything, but I've got Meta at a hundred bucks and it's at like $300 now. And I don't even like Mark Zuckerberg. So yeah, I'm going to sell a whole bunch of MetaStop. I already have market orders when the market opens today.

Why? Because everybody's donkey on bears. There's massive exuberance in the market. The Fed, let's celebrate the Fed. Jerome Powell is the best. They did a perfect job. I'm literally hearing that. The soft landing is coming. Meanwhile, Europe's already into a recession, and we know that the United States is going to enter one. And as Mike McGlone likes to say, don't fight the Fed. And the only thing the Fed has ever said is we're still going to tighten. People out there still believing that the very fact that they paused means that they're pivoting. I'm very vocal. I will die on the hill if a pause is not a pivot. That was proven pretty quickly now that the Fed is literally saying they're going to continue raising rates. Now, yes, maybe that 50, 75 bps is already priced in.

But guys, everything, I was going to do this later, but like everything, everything is overbought. First of all, if you want to see why I can still be bullish on Bitcoin and bearish on all these other things, it's not correlated to anything. S&P, gold, dollar index, VIX, Bitcoin is between minus 0.2 and 0.2, uncorrelated. You can have your feelings. You can think about how you want to trade. There's facts, right? Correlation is determined on a scale of minus one to one. It's math. And if you're anywhere close to zero, you are uncorrelated assets. Hey, take a look. Look, QQQ. This is obviously the Investor QQQ Trust that represents the Nasdaq. Massively overbought, putting in potential bearish divergence. DXY

falling off a cliff, which should make you bullish on stocks. Remember, this is still support right here. So I'm not getting excited until we start seeing closes, but that could change my mind. SPX, massive bearish divergence, overbought on RSI, running out of steam. RSI lower every single time the market pumps higher and currently putting in on this daily chart, potentially an evening star there. Talking about meta, the most overbought it's been since 2013, right here. Overbought since 2013, jumping to 312 pre-market right now. I am selling that shit. I bought it at $100 down here. By the way, I also bought some at 230 on the way down when it hit this weekly 200 MA. That was dumb, or was it? Still up massively on those buys. Yeah, no bearish divergence here,

but RSI is over 80, over 80 here on the weekly for Meta. It can stay there a long time, guys. We can see a massive pump still, a massive blow off top, but I see this as a time to start taking profit. Reviewing some news really quickly, and then I want to bring on James. Google Play changes policy on tokenized digital assets, allowing NFTs in apps and games. I think this is absolutely huge, especially as we see the app store on apple kicking everyone off including noster not allowing anyone to include any uh nfts or any way to make money without paying apple the mafia they're 30 but yeah google now changing their policy going

to allow nfts in apps and games a lot of muscle chat gpt competitor boosts ai related crypto tokens once again people in crypto are completely redacted and if they see the word ai in the games. Elon Musk's new chat GPT competitor boosts AI-related crypto tokens. Once again, people in crypto are completely redacted and if they see the word AI in the mainstream news, they buy a whole bunch of crypto garbage that says AI in it and it goes up and then you get dumped on and you have fun staying poor. But Elon

Musk, yes, going to fight chat GPT of, by the way, which he was one of the major funders of when it was a not-for-profit originally, because he's going to maybe build Truth GPT of, by the way, which he was one of the major funders of when it was a not-for-profit originally, because he's going to maybe build Truth GPT. But yes, he's forming a company called XAI. We're cooking through this. Even as inflation risk fades, Bitcoin remains stuck below 31K. That's because it's an uncorrelated asset, guys. This is not bad news. This is good news. For once, we're seeing the stock market go crazy on news cpi ppi all these things at bitcoin

just remaining flat maybe that's because the united states government is sending silk road bitcoin to coinbase and they're going to sell and dump on you but that already happened in march and the market didn't move at all and you didn't even know about it when it was happening so i don't buy that narrative i think it's complete crap i think it's complete crap. I think it's complete garbage. Also, the irony of the United States government on one side attacking Coinbase, saying that they're selling unregistered securities, the SEC cracking down on them, but the United States government literally using Coinbase to sell their Bitcoin should not be lost on anyone. Mike Novogratz says BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF points toward coming adoption. I could go through what he's saying, but no shit, Sherlock. And finally, crypto hedge funds expect digital assets will be up by the end of the year. This is why we say Bitcoin to pump in the coming months as a survey from Pricewaterhouse

Coopers, pretty big company, pretty big company, basically saying that the large amount of people surveyed believe that the assets will be up by the end of the year. And then we're going to see a whole lot more crypto hedge funds coming into the market. Tried to unpack that really quickly so I could bring on James. We're going to do that right now. James, for some reason, I'm seeing a black screen for James. Can you guys see James? James, could you? Oh, there you are. He appeared. StreamYard, stripping. How are you, man?

Good, I'm good. It's the jet lag of London. Yeah, I have jet lag and apparently StreamYard, which I use for streaming, also has jet lag because it brought you up as a black screen there for a second. I was saying to you before, I love London, but what the F with the traffic, man? Look, it's a beautiful place you know crypto regulators are fabulous but but nobody can resolve the traffic right we i think we are we're at one of those periods of the year where we have to spend all

the hard-earned taxpayers council money on on breaking up the roads and starting them again so yeah apologies for for our london traffic i mean what's crazy is that you just have ways and it tells you 30 minutes and you go 30 minutes and it still says 30 minutes then you go 30 more minutes and it still says 30 minutes and you also can't get an uber a taxi do you guys even have a system like the lights on the lights off it's blue it's green and there's always somebody in the cab. Every time. Look, I think there's a desire to drive people to ride bikes. I think that's the underlying message in architecture is to make that.

People's transportation is so complex, everyone rides a bike like Amsterdam. Oh, wow. I just saw this, guys. I'm going to go ahead and break this news but alex machinsky i was arrested uh which i don't know if you saw that but this happened apparently in the last uh 45 minutes or so uh sec sued machinsky celsius in new york federal court and machinsky arrested we'll dig into that a bit more later but listen that's uh enough about london and enough about alex machinsky space uh what do you what do you make of the the news that Bitcoin is going to pump in the coming

months, hedge funds reopening, everybody getting in, prices looking good, bullish market? What do you think? Yeah, Luke, clearly, I would say, right, but I'm equitably a believer of the same. I think the PwC report is pretty pretty good uh you know pointing direction of travel i think you know there's there's a lot of appetite that we're certainly seeing from traditional players now you know launching and getting ready to launch you know either digital sleeves of their funds or dedicated digital you know offerings so i think that you know this next second you know second half of 23 i think is has got all the kind of green shoots that we like. And again, not to be insular or maximist on that. We're genuinely saying that people are getting ready.

They're actually getting ready the right way this time around, I think, by building and asking the right questions of the counterparties and all that kind of jazz. But the reality is funds are going to be trading and the price is definitely going north of 30K. You know, with BTC, let's see if it's 50 again, right? So, yeah, I mean, do you think that 50 is possible? A bank over in your hometown, Standard Chartered, said they think 50 by the end of the year. And then they revised up from 100 to 120 for the end of 2024. So we are seeing some bullishness. The thing is, listen, I gave this whole speech at the beginning about this exuberance. It's making me cautious and stops. We're starting to get a little exuberant

in crypto as well. Yeah, look, I think you're right. I heard the opening remarks. There's a lot of opportunity to be buying at this point. I think standard charts are a pretty good bellwether for the focus. They're obviously big into the ecosystem, be it as an investor and or a portfolio kind of player. They're investing in infrastructure themselves with the Zodias, which has all been very public. So I think that banks that have that strong UK and Asia divide are also you know indication of where some of the opportunity may come over the next six to nine months as well yeah i think i tend to agree with that so do you think that all of this bullish sentiment is really just on the black back of blackrock it seems that by the sentiment has changed across the board but only a week before that news was

announced we were talking about the sec cracking down on binance the sec cracking down on coinbase it's over in the united states now all of a, we get this one fundamental piece of news, and it seems it changed everybody's sort of mood about the industry, including institutions across the board. Like we got this stamp of approval from the biggest name we possibly could. Yeah. And look, it is a monstrous stamp of approval, as you know, right? You're still in the US as a major corporation and you're giving credibility and credence to the asset class. I think it's fantastic. Then, as you rightly say, the ripple effect of that means that maybe the market can't quite react in the same positivity

in the US because of the regulatory landscape, which is still unwinding its position and making its calls. But the rest of the world can react like a tsunami unwinding its position and making its calls. But the rest of the world can react like a tsunami at the other end of that from a wave standpoint. So London and Europe bodes very well from that basis. And then again, as I mentioned, Hong Kong's coming back. There's a huge amount of trading, transactional, and firms setting up in that region now, money coming back into Hong Kong from Singapore even. And I think that those two specific locations of Singapore and Hong Kong will be huge beneficiaries of that kind of news. Yeah, I agree. And now actually, we've just seen that the Lummis-Gilla brand, Bill, I'm not sure if you're familiar with that, but obviously it was proposed last year and that

they've kind of come in now with a, I guess they were calling it a leaner and meaner version. Actually, I got to find the image. But I mean, it's pretty compelling that we're getting, again, on the Senate floor now, talk of Bitcoin and crypto assets. It seemed like they were not willing to even float legislation for a while there after FDX. But we've seen, obviously, in Congress, we're getting a markup on the digital markets bill, stablecoin, and now the Senate. And it's a Wyoming Republican and a New York Democrat coming together, which means this could be bipartisan. So do you think that even in the face of this regulatory crackdown by the SEC, we could actually get some sensible regulation?

Maybe the United States is not a lost cause. Look, we all own all, right? Long may it be the land of the free and the land of the opportunity too, right? I think if it gets solved in a sort of regulated standard approach, this thing goes literally bananas to your point. And if it doesn't, it'll just take a little longer. I think the regulatory landscape with the SCA is very progressive, obviously with what's going on in the Middle East as well. The exchange is there, the license is being issued. The other regions are reacting opportunistically with the US a little paralyzed with this thought process. So I think it's in the interest of the US Senate, to your point, and the US regulators to make a call and make a call quickly so that actually they can benefit from this market trading opportunity.

So yeah, we're beneficiaries of a global market and obviously we can operate under the right regulatory jurisdictions that we're all working in. But yeah, I think the market wills and wishes for the US to make its call and to jump in. Will Barron Yeah. Just for people who haven't heard about it, the Lummis-Giliband Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2023, this is the fact sheet. Just I'm going to give you guys the quick thing and we're going to move on. Crypto assets within the regulatory perimeter, basically saying crypto assets are here to stay, regulating crypto asset exchanges, but to note, they want them to register with the CFTC, not the SEC.

So this is a push against Gary Gensler and the SEC and their overreach. Safeguards consumers. We'll see how they do that, but sounds good. Promotes responsible innovation. Basically saying we don't want all this innovation to go offshore. We do want it to stay in the United States. Securities and commodities. Upholds the Howey test governing the presence of an investment contract. That one to me is going to be interesting because nobody seems to be able to figure out what the Howey test actually says about crypto and investment contracts. Combats the use of crypto for listed finance. Obviously, this one's a head scratcher. We'll have to see what it means really. Requires payment stable coins to be issued by depository institutions. What that means for tether or existing stable coins will be a big question

and appropriations and taxation obviously so i actually i want to ask you what do you think of that stable coin language there look i think it's yeah yeah look it's it's uh you know it's i think i lost james there for a minute i don't know if you guys did let me see did you guys did. Let me see. Did you guys lose James? I was saying that I think there's a huge lean towards financial institutions being able to mint their own coins, which I think is very valuable. You've seen obviously JP Morgan with its kind of approach here, but actually there's a global opportunity for financial firms

to actually mint their own coins and actually use them as a stable coin basis, which we would all be, again, be wildly beneficiary of because there's an existing infrastructure that it can reside on. I actually genuinely, whilst there's a, I'm sure a bunch of very sort of edge case people that would love this to be an alternative asset class that doesn't administer the same standards. But actually, I think we're all beneficiaries of it being the same regulated fashion, the same rails in terms of process that we can operate under. So we're seeing- I largely agree. I just wonder, what do you think it means for those that were not necessarily issued by a depository institution in the past?

Do we think that Tether gets a pass in this? Or is this basically says, yet again, it'll be like Tether, go operate everywhere else in the United States, we get USDC. Or banks start to issue their own stable coins, to your point, which I think is exactly what would happen. This will be just like JP Morgan coin or any of those things. They'll do them themselves. It'll be on private blockchain.

They'll use it for settlement. Yeah. And look at, you know, so long as, and it's always, there's always, always a caveat, right? But, you know, so long as there are, there's enough KYC and AML around, you know, Tether and they can look at the history and get comfortable with the utilization of it, then, then it should be brought into the, you know, the standards approach, right? And maybe even becomes a consortium type opportunity for banks to come together, right?

Why wouldn't you use a framework that's pretty solid as long as you say, as long as the sort of existing rails are there to administer, to make sure that nothing's monstrously fraudulent over the last insert number of years, then it can play a big role. If not, to your point, it ends up getting sort of pushed a bit further out to the edges

from an operational standpoint and is used a bit more as an on-ramp, off-ramp for different regulatory jurisdictions and countries while banks then kind of take the fast lane and start mincing themselves and that becomes the dedicated replacement. I tend to agree. I think it's interesting that Tether could get basically pushed offshore, but has made billions of dollars because they're buying US treasuries.

Yeah, it's quite frightening what the end products of some of these things can occur, right? But the stranger things have happened, right? Yeah, I totally agree. So listen, let's focus more in on Elwood, obviously, what you guys are doing, because you have more insight into how this has looked throughout the bear market. I had you on, I can't remember, it must have been last summer. Yeah.

And we talked about sort of how we were in a crypto spring. I think we both pointed out that spring didn't mean that it was summer and things were beautiful. Spring can be really shitty weather, right? You live in London, you know better than anyone else. But that was before FTX, right? So we had sort of this black swan event, things went down. I still don't think it really discounts what we were saying because it only took two months for Bitcoin price to bounce back from the FTX lows. But what have you seen from institutions throughout that winter, spring, whatever we're going to call it? And what's happening now? And then how has Elwood built throughout that time? I mean, to your point, yes, we've certainly seen the continuation

of engagement from institutions. Yes, it's slowed things down. Absolutely. I think we've all seen that with the trading notional volumes that are in the market in general. And obviously, there was an immediate sort of eight-week kind of process post the FTX issues. What I think it's certainly done, though, is accelerated everybody's process in terms of building correctly and building appropriately. So the demands now on the liquidity providers they're working with and the counterparts they're working with

are what they should have been probably two years ago. Do people segregate their assets? Do they conduct financial audits on themselves? Do they have independent confirmation of the reserve assets that they're holding? All the things you'd expect in finance, which were kind of ignored as maybe a strong one, but certainly pushed to the edges because everyone was in a race to trade and be active in the market. I think those best practices have now come back very vehemently in today's world. The offer of free credit around the world has certainly dried up, and obviously that's a macro position as well as a digital position. And I also think the sort of nomenclature of the way that people describe digital assets versus crypto is also a very sort of visible event too. So it's amazing how many banking clients we talk to that say, we don't do crypto, but we absolutely do digital assets.

And so the insanity that may come with that is by the by, But the reality is, you know, they're at least they're at least now on the same page. I mean, I've always joked that we have a vernacular problem anyways. I actually think we've needed to sort of shed the idea of cryptocurrencies for a very long time because 99 percent of them have no intention of being currencies in any way, shape and form. I think the idea of them being currencies actually is what makes them a threat to institutions and to central uh banks and to governments and that's just not what it is right so i think that that's a good thing that we're starting to talk about them as digital assets yeah look it is and and i think that at least it gives to your point gives people comfort i mean you know we know we all know that the reason why a lot of these things don't occur is because there's a lack of knowledge or ignorance or distrust.

And I think if people, certainly in the historic banking ecosystem and even buy and sell side, can get comfortable with a digital asset ecosystem and benefit from the technology, then actually this becomes even more game time even quicker. Yeah, it is literally amazing how you walk into a number of firms and you say, we're here to talk about crypto and they would show you the exit door. And you walk in exactly the same presentation with exactly the same conversation saying, we're here to manage your digital risk. And they're literally rolling out the red carpet. So I think that we all just need to be a bit more articulate with what it is that it means today and what it will mean in terms of the next three to five years and how that advances financial commerce. It's interesting because I think we went through this phase in the bull market where risk managers were in this awkward position because they all hated crypto. And now if you're at an institution and you're a CFO or something,

you walk into a meeting and everyone says, what's your opinion on this asset class? And you have to actually be informed, which was a good thing. Then the reputational risk reversed again in the bear market to, if you had been bullish, you probably are an asshole and you get fired. Now BlackRock and Larry Fink are speaking positively about Bitcoin again, and you have to now have an opinion and it probably has to be bullish. Well, look, it's nothing sexier these days than to be a risk manager, right? It's not something that you'd necessarily be rolling into parties explaining, but they certainly get the plaudits when any room's taking credit.

So long may it continue that they are now at least more aware, and again, through probably pain and some immediate pain that they've had to become aware of the asset class and how to weight it and how to manage it most effectively. And to your point, what does it peg against? Does it peg against anything and how can they materialize it? But now people are really understanding it better. They're backtesting, they're modeling, they're shocking, they're deploying the same strategies that they may or may not have done in other asset classes. And it's the familiarity that's now getting people sort of comfort that they can genuinely engage here actively, which is what we're seeing with these fund launches.

Yeah. And the focus has been very, very clearly on Bitcoin. I think I was talking yesterday, exchange inflows over the past few weeks have gone up massively after kind of decreasing for nine weeks, not unexpected after the BlackRock news. But it's been, it was like hundreds of millions in Bitcoin and like 2 million in each was the second, right?

So the question is, is this now going to be a Bitcoin only thing? Or is this the usual beginning of the cycle where everything flows into Bitcoin, it kind of tops or gets boring, and then people start going down the risk curve to try to beat Bitcoin and we see altcoins. I'll go out on a limb and say we're still going to see massive alt seasons just like in the past because humans don't change. Look, I'd love to say it's not going to be the latter, but I think it's a large slug of the latter.

I think the reality is people will look for hedges and arbitrage opportunities beyond Bitcoin. Maybe it's not 18,500 different coin universes that we've been used to over the last six, nine, 12 months while people have been spinning up left and right in the altcoin world. I think it rationalizes, certainly in terms terms of the volume and maybe it becomes a top 20, a top 15. People really only care about, from a large volume trading perspective, a very small, much smaller universe now than they did a year ago and certainly than they did two years ago. So I think, again, that sort of rationalization allows more liquidity depths,

more opportunities, and more inflows. Yeah. So I mean, any final thoughts before I let you go? What you think is going to happen? I mean, are we really going to see this become a mainstream asset class adopted by institutions, or are we just getting ahead of ourselves? No, look, I would say this. So take it with a pinch of salt that clearly everyone would expect me to say being in this world, but I think it becomes really game time. We've said it a year ago. I think that again, the five-year acceleration of or collapse of time that would have gone on if we'd have ebbed forward and just had continued bull markets is actually putting good guard rails around the asset class. So I think the regulatory landscape shapes up even more.

I think the expectation on the CFI exchanges and the liquidity providers becomes standard. And I think that we're all operating with a far more grown-up approach now. So now I genuinely think we can put it across the ETFs of the black rocks of the world. We can have funds from across the world starting to enter here and, you know, missing piece of the jigsaw once the US regulatory landscape, you know, kind of makes its call. It's all a security. Let's get on with it. You know, I think it's, it's game time. Yeah, I totally agree. And hell, that'd be good for your business. So let's hope that it happens, right? You guys are right. You guys are right there poised for this inflow of institutional money and clients. So let's hope that it happens, right? You guys are right. You guys are right there poised for this inflow of institutional money and clients.

So let's hope that it happens. But we have to see the BlackRock ETF approved, right? Absolutely. Look, you know, all from... That's a good question, Mark. It's kind of taken for granted. Yeah, they've had 571 approvals and one rejection, but what if they get rejected? Yeah, look, and if they get rejected, which

wouldn't be the first time that a process like this has been rejected, it certainly feels like they have the conviction to go back again and tweak the relative proposals and make them fit the knee. Obviously, they've a long, illustrious career of being able to do this, and obviously, having a CEO make a public statement that he believes in the direction of the asset class and the opportunity means they're going to go again and again. It's a bit like London traffic. We'll get there eventually. I didn't think I was going to get there eventually. I'm going to be honest, man. Four and a half hours back from Silverstone on the last day.

Oh, yeah. I mean, look, you're insane. 50 miles, man. You should have ridden a bike. That's a bike ride. I could have literally walked. Yeah, no, I should have biked or helicoptered out. You know what they were charging for one person? We didn't even have the option, but on a helicopter, I think it was 7,500 pounds each way.

It's insane. It's insane. Yeah, look, I mean, a billion passenger on motorbikes is the only way to get in and out of Silverstone. Yeah, so we got in one of those rickshaw guys, you know, and sat in the back and listened to some loud house music and taking a nice four-hour ride back to London. It would have been far more pleasant.

James, thank you, man. Always a pleasure, guys. Everybody check out James. I think you're on LinkedIn and not Twitter, right? Yes, sadly, I am. Cool, check him out on LinkedIn. Perfect. Thank you, James. Thanks, guys. Have a good one, man. Yeah, awesome. right yes sadly i am yeah cool check him out i liked it perfect thank you james thanks guys

have a good one man yeah awesome i mean i think that the uh institutional narrative is obviously very clear uh no reason to fight it right now when you have larry fink on tv talking about how bitcoin is a bullish asset and is here to stay and all and you know guys it's larry fink it's blackrock i'm gonna go ahead now we're gonna bring on charting man dent from the chart guys said you probably missed the beginning of the stream but i kind of had like this uh come come to god moment this morning and said i'm selling a whole lot of stock yeah i i saw the headline headline of your tweet i'm i'm interested to know what i just broad stocks or any specific-

Well, I should be specific. I said at the beginning, but the meta I bought at 100, that's now at 312, I'm out. I approve. Yeah. So to be clear, and I said at the beginning, this is about profit taking on things I feel like I got very lucky on by buying at a good time and not about exiting my stock portfolio, which I would never do. I passively invest in stocks. I'm holding them for decades, right? And I still have meta, but I just saw like at market probably four minutes ago, it should have executed a market sell literally of half of my meta position that I bought at a hundred bucks. I also had bought, I mean, I have a chart, but people remember it. It seemed really dumb. But I also had bought it here on this test at $230 on the weekly MA on the way down. It went all the way down to $88, but still held it because it was for my investment portfolio. The narrative, even since you and I spoke last week, it's getting extremely exuberant.

People are getting really celebrating. Jerome Powell is a god. He pulled off his Volcker moment. Bears are dead. Can't go down. New highs by the third quarter. And I still see a potential recession coming and more Fed tightening. Maybe that's priced in, but starting to get a little worried. And the other point being everything is massively overbought in the stock market, at least on the tech. One of the points I made yesterday was, okay, we're pretty much out of bear narratives. We worked through inflation. We worked through the regional banks. We worked through, there was liquidity that people were talking about.

We worked through like six different bear narratives and the commonality between all of them was the bear narratives came before trying to predict price going down. And what's going to happen from here is, okay, bear narratives are gone. And the next bear narrative will come after price. The price is going to consolidate and drop. And then the narrative will come in to explain why that is happening, as opposed to trying to predict the pullback. And I absolutely agree. You know, we're definitely seeing everybody's shifting to one side of the boat and eventually that boat will tip and we'll see monthly consolidation. And so a name like Meta, you know, I was just talking yesterday, Meta is looking like it will have a blow off top and lead to weekly consolidation sometime in the near term future. And so, yeah, euphoria and exuberance is the time when you want to take profits. And I'm all for rotating around. Yeah. I mean, listen, I'm not trying to sell the dead top, right? People should be clear on that. And the funny thing is you'll

tweet something like I'm selling meta. And then when it goes up 20 more dollars, people will dunk on you and tell you that you were an idiot. But that's not how I operate, right? It's enough. It's enough. And to be frank, I didn't expect it to be here, what is it, eight months after I bought it or even less. I mean, six months, seven months after I bought it, a hundred bucks, I did not expect 300. And I don't think that this is going to rip to new all-time highs at four or 500 bucks. I just don't. And maybe I'm wrong, but it's enough. Yeah. Traders and investors should not expect to nail tops and bottoms. And I've sold every Bitcoin bull market a bit before the top, and it has been a good decision. So yeah, we want to be selling it to euphoria and buying that fear. And that's the perfect example on that meta chart.

Yeah. So here's the next question. I don't know if you have any charts to pull up, but I do want to say everything's ripping in Bitcoin sideways. Are you surprised at this sort of lack of correlation? I'm not because I've always viewed it that way. But I think that right now you would have expected over past news that Bitcoin just trades like a risk asset. It's clearly decorrelated at this point. Yeah, I'm going to pull up my screen here. We'll show the Bitcoin sideways range that everybody knows about. But it's clear for me that Bitcoin yesterday, so yesterday we had the CPI reaction.

It came in lower and we saw the dollar dump. And I've been watching this dollar weekly chart. And it's such a breakdown. Yeah, big one. So new 52-week lows and the metals, gold, silver, finally shifting their momentum after two months of weakness. And so you're looking around at bulls in the market and you have to just say, Bitcoin was one of the very few bull losers from yesterday. And it's definitely a little bit concerning for the bulls. Why are we participating? What has happened in the recent past as well with, well, the NASDAQ, the bulls were in complete control back when we were pulling back here, and then it just took

one week to make it all up again. So we know there's that explosive potential behind it, but a little bit concerning for the bulls. As long as we hold 29.4, we still have the bullish view just because of the prevailing trends overall. But bulls definitely would have hoped to be over 31.5 thousand after yesterday's action. And that's RSI you have there, I assume, correct? On the bottom, yeah. Yeah. I mean, just looking at daily RSI, there was a massive bearish divergence there. You can see after the first top there at 31,000, I mean, I had it drawn.

I can probably draw it again. And that hasn't been invalidated yet either for me. So I'm not euphoric about Bitcoin at this point because I think it has moved. I'm bullish on Bitcoin always, but I think it has moved as much as it was going to on that BlackRock news. So now if we're looking for a narrative or something, what's going to push us higher? We were overbought, bearish divergence with RSI as clear as day, and nothing has changed that yet. So I wouldn't be surprised actually to see this range break down and give an opportunity to buy a bit lower.

Yeah, that's definitely a possibility. I would be on the weekly timeframe if that were to happen. And if we set a higher low, anything above 24.7, that bottom from a month ago, then there's no major red flags. I like the EMA 12, so I would want to see the bulls hold that EMA 12 to keep that consolidation on the healthy side. And then, you know, you have, I wouldn't call it a cup and handle, but just in the clear resistant zone. And then if you can bull flag under that, it's the break.

And that's what I'm looking for. When I say breakdown, I'm not talking about new lows. I mean, like maybe we get a chance to buy at 28.6 or 29 or something like that. And then obviously everybody turns bearish and then we rip up. And the other reason that... Yeah, go ahead. Just a similar example of that, unrelated chart. Well, not all completely unrelated, but this is ARKK, the ETF, which for me represents high risk, high reward growth names. And it had the same thing where it stalled out at resistance. It got the bull flag on the weekly holding EMA 12,

and then it got over that level. So weekly consolidation wouldn't be a major red flag. You just want to ensure that the retracement size holds that EMA 12 to keep resistance within striking distance. Yeah, I had a comment here. If dollar goes down, won't stocks go up, but Scott thinks Scots are going down. Well, first of all, I said I'm taking profit, right? I'm still holding my large stock position, but I think that we will see a significant correction. And I think that probably around this support, we'll see a bounce on the dollar before it heads down lower. But like I said, there's a certain point at which I'm not questioning it. I'm just taking my money and running. There's still a recession coming probably, guys. I don't know. I still think a dollar eventually goes down to like 90 DXY. Pay down this kind of head and shoulders. I think it's going to trend down. This is a real breakdown here. I don't know, man. Let's see what happens when the Fed raises rates again in a few days. Yeah, there's definitely an inverse correlation between stocks and the dollar, but I find the more clear and the stronger inverse correlations is, of course, in commodities. So

this dollar breakdown definitely has me looking at gold and miners and even some uranium stocks and things like that, which are definitely benefiting from this. Yeah. Could you see a world where DXY continues to drop and stocks don't perform well? To be honest, I'm not sure. I expect the dollar to form a four-month higher low. I've been watching the four-month timeframe more since the bear market of last year than I ever have. And there's a lot of space where that can form. It can go down to the low 90s and still form that higher low. But I expect a higher low will form eventually. It's just a question of how much do we drop before that. And again, it's that EMA12 that I keep using. And that helped me on the S&P 500 shift that mindset a bit. Well, you know, I was looking at this back at the end of last year. This is an hourly chart. I'm bullish.

Yeah, you got me with that one last week. Yeah, get rid of those narratives and just stick with the structure of the chart and that definitely can help. Yeah. Yeah. Again, just people are clear because I know we're going to get dunked on when it continues to inevitably rise. But if you're trading and you make a whole ton of money, sometimes you just take some profit. And like I said, I only sold half, so I'm still going to ride the rest and see what happens with it. So what else are you trading right now? Now that you're seeing all this, we're really seeing, I mean, this DXY move, we've been waiting a year or more for this sort of breakdown below these lows. So it is worth noting. It's important. Yeah, I've been on the rotation plays in terms of the growth names like ARKK that I mentioned, but also the Chinese names in terms of stocks. The Chinese stocks have been catching a bit over the last couple of weeks. And again, I just look at the long-term timeframes and look at, okay, which names have not been participating in the bull market the last six months? And where are people going to look to say, oh, I was wrong. The bulls are fine and I want to put my money to

work. And so I'm watching, you know, Bob-Oz trying to shape up a long-term monthly inverse head and shoulders. And that's the same pattern that Coin is on the verge of confirming here. And ARKK just confirmed it as far as breaking the neckline, trying to get the move going. So pretty much watching to see, can the Chinese names see that same kind of shift? And then you got Chinese EV stocks like XPEV that were just doing nothing, just sideways. And then they're catching a bid and up 100% over the last month or so. So I'm watching, as long as the S&P 500 and the NASDA or so. So I'm watching them as long as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ stay strong. I'm just looking at rotation, the weaker names that have

not been performing. I'm watching for them to try and perform. So you're not selling stocks like me? I am. I don't blame them. Not yet. Not yet. But I am definitely, you know, one thing that I'll do is with my IRA positions currently at the moment, I have the same long-term mindset. And so one thing that I'll do is psychologically as a day trader, I struggle to hold things long-term. So rather than leaving the door open for me to do that, I'll just say, I'm holding this. This is no touch, but I have cash in there that I will hedge. I'll grab some SPXS or SQQQ inverse three times ETF, where if I think there's a pullback, then I won't touch the stocks that I hedge.

Yeah. Yeah. I have to, psychologically, I have to shut it down because I will overtrade my long positions if I don't. There's people here asking, Debbie, do you watch Coinbase stock at all? Because I've seen a few people kind of request it. Yeah, there was a short squeeze without a doubt. We know everybody piled in on the SEC news and all that.

And then short Scott smacked around a bit over the last couple of weeks, a huge move up. It's been underperforming. The minor stocks, MARA and Riot have been- They've gone absolutely nuts. That's been my go-to. And trading 101 is find things in sideways ranges and watch for the break

because when the break takes place, you see volume and volatility, and that means you get opportunity. And this is just your prime example. This would be in a trading textbook of just range bound for six weeks, and then here we go. So if looking bullish,

I prefer these other names which are stronger. And again, on TradingView, we're not getting sued by the SEC. Yeah, and that helps as well. One thing to use TradingView for is if you want to compare names, just do MARA divided by coin. Which name should I have my money in? And if this is in an uptrend, that tells me MARA is stronger than coin. So, that's an easy comparison. That makes perfect sense. I'm looking at the coin chart right now. And as usual,

these are over longer time periods that I like, but generally just, I mean, there's been bullish divergence every time that the bottoms have tested. I don't know if that's my indicator. That's what I like, but some people follow me, but it's just the easiest signal. Now it has put it a, I mean, it might be historically overbought here. Most overbought it ever hit, actually. Yeah, a lot of things are due for weekly consolidation, certainly meta included. And so, you know, out at these levels, cautiously bullish.

And then once, I mean, the S&P 500, I'm just pulling up the future. That's what we want to see is that the RSI cools off with price going sideways as opposed to dropping, which we see all the time. Right, yeah, go ahead. I mean, the S&P 500 has been at a clear higher low uptrend for two months. So I mean, I try and make trading as simple as possible. Nothing changes if we're in a daily uptrend. And when we lose it for the first time in two months, we can say things are changing. And so that for me is going to be something that I'm keeping a close eye on. Because again, weekly consolidation is inevitable monthly. I mean,

you look at the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ will eventually see monthly consolidation. And then what will happen psychologically is on social media. You'll see all the bears come out of the woodwork. I knew it. We were like, here we go. And then we're just going to look for the monthly.

I mean, so yeah, so yeah, it's a dead cat bounce bull trap. Yeah. I mean, you know, I have Mike McGlone from Bloomberg on every Monday and he's been like, people are now dunking on him because he. Yeah. I mean, you know, I have Mike McGlone from Bloomberg on every Monday,

and he's been, like, people are now dunking on him because he's very bearish and believes, you know, we go into sort of like a great reset and all these things. But to his credit, he said, it'll do this first. Like, we'll get that 1929 massive bounce where everybody, and then, you know, you usually get these mind-melting rallies even if it is a bear markets that's always kind of in the back of my head but when i look at it objectively through simply through ta i mean things look good they just do yeah and one thing

i always like to say is the bears are not sneaky like we see them coming we see high bear volume we see all major sectors dropping together instead of this rotation game that's been going on. And the signs are clear and in front of us when it happens. So trying to pinpoint the top, again, I'm not trying to nail tops and I don't expect to be able to nail tops, but watching for the signs that the bears are showing up and then we'll react to it once that happens. For me, technical analysis is about reacting much less than it is about predicting. I completely agree. And about managing risk for me, right? Just even if I'm using like unicorn dust or tea leaves or something, at least it gives me a reason to set a stop loss and to take profit. It's a position size, right? That's why people get so caught up

in what someone's strategy is or what their indicator is. It literally doesn't matter as long as it works for you and helps you manage risk. Yep. Absolutely. And that's the key is the managing risk aspect is lots of people are learning. The bears learned it in 2021. The bulls learned it in 2022. The bears are learning it in 2023. So we know the one thing that the market is really good at is going from fear to FOMO extremely quickly and vice versa. FOMO extremely quickly and vice versa. FOMO to fear extremely quickly. Amazing. Danny, final thoughts before I let you go? Just hammering that point of protecting and using stop losses for every trade idea. There's definitely a lot of people out there that were bearish from narratives and are in a lot of pain,

but we just have to humble ourselves and take that hit to the ego and say, I was wrong and move on. Always have an invalidation level for any trade that you take. If this happens, I'm going to be wrong on what I thought would happen and I need to exit that trade. Do you want to be wrong or do you want to make money, right? I mean, do you want to be right or do you want to make money? The classic, classic sort of quote. And by the way, guys, Dan, you're going to be back every Thursday, right? Yes. Yep. Definitely. Happy man. So awesome. I love your insight. I'm going to steal your trading view sign in the background at some point when you're sleeping. And everyone loves you here. So

really psyched, guys. He's going to be here. So please follow him down below, Charting Guys. Is it the Charting Guys? Chart Guys. Of the Chart Guys, right. Chart Guys. See, I'm an idiot. It said Charting Guys. Is it The Charting Guys? Chart Guys. The Chart Guys, right. Chart Guys. See, I'm an idiot. It said Charting Man Dan, and so my mind went to charting instead of chart. And please subscribe to his YouTube. Follow him.

Really valuable content. And he's going to be here every single week. Thank you, man. Appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Awesome. And guys, yeah, obviously really excited he's going to be here. You know, have other analysts on, and then they start to get that itch where you're like,

maybe I should be buying stops. No, but when I start to have that feeling, I really am pretty happy with my decision to take some profit here across the board. And I still, the funny thing is, is that even if I take profit here, I still want to see stops go up because that's really good for me. Right? I think there's a lot of people who get the cognitive dissonance where they would rather be right and then they feel like, oh, it went up, but I could have made more, but I'm always making more money if the market goes up because I'm more an investor than a trader. Now, guys, of course, check out Meld. I'm actually recording a podcast randomly with their CEO later this afternoon. But if you haven't checked it out, get on the waiting list there. Absolutely incredible platform

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Machinsky news. We got to put together a panel to discuss that. We also have Ryan Selkis coming on from Masari, who's going to discuss his like 9000 tweet thread yesterday of his entire thesis on crypto for the coming six months. So it's going to be absolutely epic. You guys check that out. I will see you over on Twitter spaces. And of course, back here tomorrow at 9 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Thank you, legends. Peace. Let's go.