The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Volatility To Increase | CPI Data | Joshua Frank & Chris Inks

Episode Date: July 12, 2023

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CPI continues to absolutely fall off of a cliff, meaning that inflation may have been over six months to a year ago, and the Fed is still tight. Bitcoin has also been trading in a very tight range. We expected some major volatility, but really didn't get it so far on CPI. It will be interesting to see what the stock market and Bitcoin do throughout the day. I've got Josh Frank here from the Tide to discuss all the data, everything we've got going on today. And then on the back half, of course, Christopher Ings of Texas West Gap will take a look at the charts. Let's go. There is a major Great Depression coming, but we've been doing that show for as many months as I can remember at this point. And every time he says every leading indicator, every forward looking indicator says that inflation, CPI, PPI, etc., commodities prices falling off a cliff. And that continues to happen now.

Right. It's been pretty epic at this point, how every single time they drop CPI numbers, they come in below expectations. You can see it right here, breaking June CPI inflation falls to 3% below expectation of 3.1%. Core CPI inflation fell to 4.8% below expectations of 5%. This is the first time core CPI has come in below 5% since December 2021. The 26-month battle against inflation may finally be nearing its end. When I started hearing that, it means that we're probably going to be at like 10% in six months because if people are declaring it over, it's probably just starting. No, but honestly, it seems like this could have been the

case many months ago. I talked yesterday about the fact that jobs data came in like double what was expected. The economy is just actually very, very strong. So maybe, maybe the Fed's just going to keep on tightening. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Josh. We'll discuss everything else that is going on here. What's up, man? How are you? What's going on? You always got impeccable hair. The hair is so much better than my hair. My hair? Yeah, it depends. I'm within a week of a haircut. Within three days from now, it's going to be totally ruined. What's up with

that? I feel like I need to go get a haircut every week, but I end up getting one every three weeks or so. Instead of the consumer price index, the HCPI, the haircut price index, because we're up 40% over the last year. I remember getting a haircut in New York City.

A haircut in New York City. 40 bucks these days. Like that's like, and you could probably go to a place that's like 70 or 80. Either way, yeah. Oh, 100%. I go to the walk-in place with, you know, the seven guys there and whoever's there gives you a haircut. That's like $40.

Yeah. Listen, we got a bunch of things we could talk about here obviously i'm just going to go ahead and bring up this news crypto traders prepare for bitcoin volatility as focus shifts to us cpi funny because i obviously i just looked at the tie because i have the five minute chart on there which is where it defaults the volatility was on this cpi news went to 31,000 and down to 30,600 literally a 400 rain400 range was the total of the volatility that we got on this great CPI announcement. Now, we have a whole day to go now, but it almost seems like Bitcoin's just not caring about the economy anymore. Yeah, I mean, if you look, you can see you have your macro futures data right below it, right?

If you go scroll down, S&P, NASDAQ futures are up about 1%. Bitcoin on the day is up 1% as well, but on the hour, it's actually down. Bitcoin is up modestly on this announcement, but it hasn't really reacted. Whereas a 1% move on the S&P is more significant than a 1% move on Bitcoin. That's like a 5% move on Bitcoin, right? But this article here is saying that we should prepare for volatility. It's kind of like saying that eventually it's going to rain when you're looking at Bitcoin, right? I mean, it's sunny outside for a week. Eventually you could say, hey, maybe in the next week it'll rain. But they're pointing at the fact that Bollinger Bands here are so exceptionally tight. I think it says that the Bollinger Bands have only been this tight

since January and a handful of times literally in history. So for anyone who doesn't know, when you're looking at Bollinger Bands, one of the indicators here, when they get this tight, it can stay that way for a while, but whichever direction it breaks, you expect an exceptionally big move. But like I said, I mean, don't you just know that by the fact that it's basically been trading between 30 and 31,000 for the last few weeks? I mean, the volatility always returns. Yeah. I mean, Bitcoin's realized volatility is basically, with the exception of one, maybe one day earlier this year at its lowest level in the last three years. So it's really range-bounded type. Why do you think that is?

I think everyone is waiting to see where the market goes, right? I mean, when we were trying to come up with topics for the show, there's nothing to talk about because nothing's going on, right? And so there's nothing going on from a positive or negative perspective, right? And what that means is, I think the market is waiting for something to happen. What the market is really waiting for to happen is either one of the Ripple lawsuit or the Bitcoin ETF approval, right? I mean, I think we're kind of in a wait and see mode. Look, we had all the SEC lawsuits, the market drew down on that. The market decided that didn't really matter for Bitcoin, that was more altcoins. Then we had obviously the BlackRock

ETF filing, market pumps back up, especially Bitcoin. Now it's like, okay, the filing happened, everybody... It doesn't matter who else files. If Vanguard and everybody else file tomorrow, at this point, everyone's in the race, right? It doesn't matter. And so I think at this point, the next big thing that's going to decide where the market comes, either one, some crypto stupidity, because that seems to happen every couple of weeks. It's actually amazing how we've had, we could have the multi-chain hack. We've had a few things, but nothing that significant. Hacks here and there is nothing for crypto. Tuesday. Yeah, the Tuesday, exactly. But I think we're waiting for some event, right? I think it's

going to be some event. And I don't think it's necessarily going to be a macro event unless the Fed decides not to raise rates or they say we're done raising rates for the year. I don't necessarily think it's going to be a macro event that's going to move the market. I think it's going to be a crypto event. And I think it's going to be the ETF decision one way or another. Because I think if the ETF is not approved, we see a really strong sell-off. ETF is approved. I still think there's more buying. So we're going to be sideways for a while, which aligns with slow summer seasonal price action anyways. I mean, it's anecdotal. I can look at the chart, but it feels like every summer you can just go outside and touch grass and ignore this market

entirely until September or October. Yeah. I mean, go on vacation, go take some time, chill. I mean, look, it's crypto. So shit always hits the fan. Shit always happens. Something will come. There will be something that happens between now and the ETF decision date. But I don't know what it is. I really think the market is in a wait and see mode. I mean, I think, look, there's a chance that a few people come in. I think the other thing that could happen as well is some people with inside information know the ETF filing is getting approved and they're going out and they're going to go and start buying. We talked about the Fred Ursam thing, which I don't think is he thinks the ETF is going to get approved necessarily. But Fred Ursam, who is one of the co-founders of Coinbase, he sold a ton of

stock post IPO at $300, $200. He's been buying like absolute crazy. $125 million worth. Yeah. For reference, he was a co-founder of Coinbase and now he is the founder and managing partner of Paradigm, which is the largest venture fund in crypto. He's very well capitalized. But look at this.

I mean, May... This is basically, this is family office or is this personally? I mean, I don't know. It's personally. Either way, it's money. Says relationship director. But I'm saying this isn't for Paradigm. This is him personally. Oh, this is him personally. Paradigm has external capital. Yeah, he's a director at Coinbase. That's why it's showing. Oh, right. And actually, they've showed when you dig into it that, you know, people have criticized, obviously, Brian Armstrong for selling, but really, he's sold so little in the last year.

I think like $16 million worth in total or something. The guys, the insiders are buying. I mean, you look at the chart. I don't think people realize how, I mean, we can just delete this, but how people realize how big this move is, right? I mean, going back to January, he's trading at $30. It's at $90. Yeah. No, but I mean, if you go back to January, yeah, it's a 90% move from the lows in June. It's 90% in a month, which is insane. But it's tripled in price this year. Tripled.

Yeah. That is absolutely insane. If you believe in crypto long-term, you have to believe in Coinbase. It is the best that we have in terms of it is a regulated, publicly listed exchange in the US that has done everything that they possibly can to try to be a good actor and do the right things over the years. I mean, the securities lawsuit is a securities lawsuit and every other exchange in the US has listed these assets. So that's a crypto thing. That's not a Coinbase specific thing. So I don't know. I think, look, if you believe in crypto, you buy Coinbase and every private crypto company is completely overvalued. And so with Coinbase, you had the opportunity to buy

a company that it's peaked that will do four or 5 billion in revenue for $8 billion. I mean, I think it was at one point what the valuation dropped to, or $10 billion. And they just have tons of cash. They're still well-capitalized. And they're building a more diversified business, right? So they're now starting to generate more non-transactional revenue. I mean, the question is, what does that mean? Because I think they bucket staking rewards and things into that. But yeah, I mean, I think that's a good side, right? You want buying of crypto or of Coinbase. And you can also go and you can look at, we can look at the 13F filings and actually see, are real institutions buying Coinbase?

And I presume they are. So real institutions are apparently buying everything crypto related that's not nailed down, right cut gbtc obviously at the lowest discount we talked about yesterday about 27 bitcoin has formed a firm foundation under 30 grand that's irrelevant but here we go and half a billion has poured into bitcoin funds in the past three weeks this from jane butterfill at uh coin shares they had been in really a steady outflow mode and now we're seeing a half a, which erased nine weeks of outflows in three weeks of inflows. But it's really important to note this is all Bitcoin. 133 million in Bitcoin, second place, 2.9 million in Ethereum. Nobody cares about anything that's not Bitcoin right now.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's fair. But I do think it's important to note that on the sideline, while all this is happening, and there's all this talk about Bitcoin, a lot of the large asset managers are going out and they're working on tokenization programs on other chains. There's tokenization actively occurring on Avalanche, there's tokenization actively occurring on Polygon, and on other chains that you wouldn't think. Stellar, for example, has a partnership with, I believe, Franklin Templeton. And I'm blanking on the French Bank as well that they're partnered with on tokenization too. So it's not just Bitcoin. CITI General, I think.

Yeah, StockGen. Yeah, exactly. So yes, all the attention's on Bitcoin right now, but I think there are more things happening with traditional finance on other chains than we've seen in the past. And I think we'll start to see that news break in the coming months and years. It's not going to be overnight. But yes, while the interest is all on Bitcoin, as we've seen a million times, and I think I've said this before on your show, when no one's talking about crypto by Bitcoin, when everyone starts talking about Bitcoin by shitcoins, and when everyone starts talking about shit coins, right? And so I think we're starting to get to the point where everyone starts talking about Bitcoin phase of the market, which I think means, look, I think there's still more to come with Bitcoin, but I think that's going to mean, look, alts are going

to follow, right? And the reason that alts follow is because people in crypto are completely degenerate. And because everyone's saying now there will never be another cycle and alts won't get their money. Right. Well, it's because if Bitcoin goes up to 60 grand, everyone's going to be like, shit, Bitcoin already had its run. I got to go catch the next wave and throw their money in alts. We've all done it. You've done it. I've done it.

I'm going to do it. I'm ready to do it. I'm waiting to do it. Yeah. Right. The baby doll's time to do it. I don't know. You know, we just talked about the fact that

Bitcoin kind of went from 25 to 31 on the BlackRock news. Maybe it does just chill here all summer until August when we either get an answer or the first kick down the road. And maybe you just find select little altcoins. We always have a something summer, whether it's a DeFi summer or an NFT summer. It's July. What

summer are we going to have? I don't know coin summer feel boring maybe a Tron summer Justin's son is you know all over the place for these days yeah what's when this thing when he starts really like appearing it makes me a little nervous I agree about TUSD and then all of a sudden like he's kind of everywhere I mean I don't know if you saw this but I was looking for while you talking. Vanguard buys 10% stake in Bitcoin miner Riot. So talk about something I completely missed the mark on. Mining stocks all up 3x year to date, outperforming any crypto related stock coin, which was just below, and a majority of tokens. Pretty crazy. I mean, this is Riot, Hut,

I mean, it's pretty insane. Clearly, this to me means that institutions are buying everything they can that's Bitcoin adjacent in the hopes that the ETF gets approved. Is that, what do you think is the correct view on that? I think there's a couple of things. I think the first is that everyone thought the miners were going out of business. A lot of them, like Core Scientific, filed for bankruptcy already. When Bitcoin started to drop down to 16K, from speaking to a lot of the largest miners, they were profitable around 25K. And that was without all of the fees from BRC20s and all the other shit that we could talk about that have moved the amount of fees paid to miner up. But everyone thought these miners were going down.

All of these lenders had really bad loans to miners. They had to take mining equipment as collateral. I mean, no one was looking to buy mining equipment, right? The secondary market for mining equipment crashed. Celsius bankruptcy, they were a giant miner. All of their equipment was potentially going to go for auction. So everyone really kind of maybe slightly overreacted to how bad everything was for miners, but things were really, really bad. And look, when Bitcoin goes from 16K to 31K, if you're mining, just there, you're doubling the revenue for mining. But on top of that, the Bitcoin network was being used a lot more for things like ordinals. And so the rewards getting paid to miners were even more significant than the move on Bitcoin. So I think it was partially a correction uh but also the fact that you know it should be

up more than the price of bitcoin theoretically just in that they're making more money than you know because fees are higher so are you saying that ordinals and be actually 20 tokens saved bitcoin is that what you're saying i'm saying it probably saved some miners uh pretty crazy and also it does kind of put at least something in place for the argument that one day all the Bitcoin will be mined and there will be no miners and the network will die. If we see actual use cases for it, they can make more in the actual sort of transactional fees than they can in the mining fees. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think that makes sense. I mean, I think we're gonna

have to figure out something at some point but that's a problem for later let's not deal with it today uh you're not worried about 21 47 or whatever you have to worry about much sooner dates than 21 47 i mean like you know or mining one tenth of a bitcoin per block or even half of it i mean even even i mean halving has an impact, right? I don't think this halving has any impact on Bitcoin price unless the narrative has an impact on Bitcoin price because every halving, when you're at 50 to 25 Bitcoin per block, right, the first halving, that's really significant. But now we're going from, what, 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. Every halving continues to have less

and less of an impact on the price of Bitcoin, but it certainly has an impact on the rewards that miners are generating, right? I mean, now miners are probably buckling down and are like, oh shit, we have to make money for the next 12 months in anticipation for what happens. I kind of get this feeling that this has become a really crowded trade, though, to buy everything Bitcoin related and that maybe that's a signal that things aren't going to be as exciting as we hope for quite a while. I mean, we keep talking about sideways. That's what I think is going to happen, too. But the more these people pile into all these things, the more I start to think we get sort of this local top and chill for a while. Yeah. Right now, there's no massively bullish thing on the horizon other than the ETF or a lawsuit win. Or if it turns out that Binance didn't do all the terrible things they're accused of, that's probably a good thing as well. I think it's some SEC win or this ETF getting approved are the two things

that we we and look i know i'm stating the obvious right i know everyone knows that but i i just don't know what else it's going to be unless you know all of a sudden micro strategy has the best quarter ever and decides that they want to you know and then buy all they would you buy bitcoin but you know yeah but idea those you know he just bought a metric ton. I mean, that may have been what was helping move the market up. I doubt it. But I think you're the one who people look at Bitcoin today and they go, if BlackRock can put their name on this, it could get their name behind this, right? Why can't we? And I think what it actually does is for those that are working, so for everyone that doesn't know, all the large asset managers and hedge funds, they have a crypto guy or they have a crypto team. The challenge has been that crypto

guy goes up to the senior level with ideas and then the senior people go, no, not happening. Every time he goes up with an idea, with an idea, an idea, it kind of gets shut down or it gets low rolled or it takes a really long time. Potentially what happens with all of the tokenization initiatives and what's happening with Bitcoin is these guys start to be able to build a little bit better of a case and they're like, well, BlackRock's doing it. They're the largest asset manager. Why are we not doing it? And so I think that's also something that's not going to take days. That's not going to take weeks. That's not even going to take months. It's going to take years. But I think it's something that's also being maybe

underappreciated in the market from a longer term point of view. Yeah. I'm just looking at charts across the board. I'm actually pretty surprised at the lack of volatility on everything at the moment with CPI today. I think now everything, I'm starting to get the feeling that all news is priced in and now we can just trade charts. Until we get some huge news, like you said, it's either BlackRock ETF and SEC action. Stocks now don't even care, I don't think, about inflation news and CPI. I think they care for like six hours and then it's over and you go back to the chart. It just seems like nobody cares. That's what it feels like. The news cycle cycle is just it's too exhausting there's too much i think yesterday we're pointing out there's like nine fed speakers this week cpi right i mean who

they're all going to say different stuff i think it's crazy they're going to still type me to be quite honest i mean that's like the bleed on bloomberg today is this softer u.s inflation data unlikely to dissuade fed from July rate hikes. Great. So what happens then? Nothing. Do you think that a rate hike in July moves the market? Certainly not the crypto market. I don't think. Yeah. Look, I think it depends on how long-term your perspective is, right? So yeah, look, if they raised rates twice the rest of the year, right, what are they thinking? Are they raising 50 bit bips more or something?

That's it. It's priced in. That's what I'm saying. So unless we get 50 in one meeting, nobody cares. Yeah. So yeah, I don't know. And eventually, inflation is going to continue to cool. I mean, it's ridiculous.

Everything is completely unaffordable. I mean, everyone listening, you don't need to see inflation numbers to realize how ridiculous things were over the last years, right? So it's great that things are cool. Look at your hair. Look at his hair. That's a $50 haircut from Supercuts. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. The other thing that's kind of interesting to me, if we look at the market, Solana has had a pretty big rebound, up 47% over the last 30 days. Bitcoin Cash has somehow managed to continue to perform. Yeah, what's up with that, dude? I don't know. I don't know. Bitcoin Cash, it's a weird asset, right? I mean,

when Bitcoin forked and Bitcoin Cash was created in 2018, right? I don't know if you remember, but Bitcoin Cash ran up to four grand. It's now trading at 280, right? And basically every single person sold that fork as a dividend, right? Fun trading weekend I can ever remember in the history of crypto. That was an awesome, that was an awesome. Weeks after the fork or something, I can't remember specifically, but you could, I mean, there was like 15 to 20%

an hour volatility on Bitcoin Cash for 48 straight hours. I think it was crazy. It was absolutely insane. I mean, it literally went up to, I don't know, pull up the chart. I mean, it went up to $4,000 and then I think it just totally got decimated. But it's a really weird asset, right? I mean, the reason... I don't fully buy the reason that people are super excited about it, which is the fact that there are a trade other assets because it is a commodity, but it doesn't do anything and it doesn't have the same narrative that Bitcoin has. Luke Gromen I think there's a lot of insiders, I think there's a lot of mining and a lot of miners that happen to have Bitcoin cash in China that might be in some ways behind manipulation of this market. Look at that run that it had.

Robert Leonard I mean, you have a lot- manipulation of this market. Yeah. Look at that run that it had. I mean, you have a lot... Yeah. Now they've changed how you do this. Are you there? Yeah. But you play it linear. The volatility is insane. And look how flat it's been and how little of a move

this actually is when you do it. I always get the line. The thing that's crazy to me is just how it's maintained that 180% price move over the last 30 days. It just doesn't seem real. It can't just be the narrative. I mean, that's the...

Well, because if we want to take that narrative right, Litecoin is in that same bucket. Litecoin over the last 180 days is up 25%. So it doesn't make sense, right? Why not Ethereum Classic? Why isn't that a commodity? Come on, guys. Ethereum Classic is up 26%. So it's actually performed exactly the same way as Litecoin, but the BCH on its own, I mean, there was some, if you go and look at liquidations,

there were some liquidations on Bitcoin Cash, open interest went up, but nothing significant. I don't know. It signals to me there's more going on than we think there's going on. Yeah. Now I have to do a quick educational lesson for Ian who's asked me how to change between log on TV. It used to be right here, but they changed it. You would just click on log and auto is the other one, or you go logarithmic to regular. So over here, like on this thing, go logarithmic to regular. See, we help people here with very important things. All right, Josh, before I let you go. So what, is there anything, is there a trade right now? Like, what are you watching? Is there, or is it now like we just had it? The trade was, hey, BlackRock ETF, you got a 20% move in Bitcoin in a week.

It's a really hard question. It's a really hard question. I don't have an idea. I think the trade right now is news, right? It's monitoring news. It sees things that are going out and it's tracking narratives and seeing what the next narrative that emerges is. I think there's still some juice left in the AI trade. Not in that I believe that that's the end all be all of it's going to go straight to the moon, but I think there's going to be a lot of volatility with an AI. So I think that's something to continue to watch out for. And I would continue to watch out for a lot of crypto venture funds

raise way too much cash. They have to deploy that capital. Monitor where they're deploying that because there might be a trade in wherever that capital is starting to go. So, yeah, right. So if they sort of choose a genre or an area, just follow the money. Didn't we say that we had a piece

that A6, TNZ, speaking of venture capital, and stuff, where is it? We co-invested together in a new iTunes, apparently, on Chain or something. I got it. I'm so fast because I've got the tie. Snoop Dogg and A16Z back Web3 Music Platform Sounds 20 million funding round.

20 million funding round for A16Z is literally like they took 30 seconds of due diligence to do that. These guys need to write like $300-$500 million checks for it to matter. I have to drop it like it's hot, but enjoy the Snoop. Oh, I see what you did there. Guys,

follow Josh, and I think, are you going to be on Spaces today? I'll be on Spaces. I'm joining about 15 minutes late, but I'll be on. How dare you? All right. Thank you. Guys, obviously since we're about to move on in a minute to talk to Chris, you know how we do it on Wednesdays, Chris, the co-host in the back half of the show.

But this time we decided to just have Chris instead of bringing on a traitor because last time it didn't feel like he got his proper time in my mind. But I got to obviously mention to you guys the new sponsor. If you've been reading the newsletter, it's over there. I did. I pointed the right way for the first time in history with the mirrored screen. Awesome. Melt. It was amazing.

Scrolling down the bottom as well. An actual bank. And when you participate in DeFi, it is non-custodial and therefore you keep your own assets so you can't get rug pulled like Celsius and BlockFi and Voyager. If you click on the link down below,

it'll take you to the early access pass to basically sign up, get on the waiting list for it to start. So you can do that down below. You just sign up and check it out. Sign up and check it out because you love me. Tell them I sent you. And now without further ado to move on to more about charts and trades and to get perspective on the market.

I mentor Chris. What's up, man? Hey, what's going on scott how you doing man good man glad to see you because we just were talking a whole lot and i saw you came right on when i was kind of pointing to the fact that i think right now it's gonna be one of those great technical times where we can just kind of look because everybody's searching for a narrative when we just had one. Yeah. And so, you know, now is one of those times that like, we're all like, it's going to be so boring and it just goes to 40,000. Yeah, definitely, you know, definitely a possibility.

You know, if we look here at the, you know, the DXY here, this is actually the dollar futures chart. What was that? It's falling off a cliff. Oh yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, CPI numbers just came in. I was talking about it yesterday on my show, and I mentioned how we were probably going to get lower,

especially on core inflation, which is the important part because the used car price is dropping. And, man, oh, man, you know, it didn't cease to impress. We got down below. I think they were expecting some like 5.1. I think it went 4.8 on core. 4.8, yeah. But even there was a huge drop there with the headline CPI. I mean, man, you know, we were

looking at going from 4 to 3.1 and what, it came at 3.0 or something? I mean, we even missed on that. It's huge. So yeah, you know, Fed probably going to raise the interest rate still. I think they're kind of committed to that. I can't say I'd be surprised if they didn't. But really, I think they're committed to it. So I think we get this quarter point rate hike.

But, man, this does a lot of a lot of damage to that idea. They have to keep ready. You know, I have to keep hiking. And so when their next one comes up, you know, you've got more CPI. And if you see it continue to drop, especially, of course, CPI, I don't think they have a whole lot of reason why they would keep, you know, keep keep raising that. So, you know, as long as they're, you know, stuff keeps coming in like this, we can expect the dollar to continue to drop. And so here we are. We've got this nice, large and descending channel here coming down, you know, from that all time high. And then locally, we've got this huge kind of barrier

triangle descending triangle here uh we'll probably get you know if i'm looking here we'll probably get a bounce here and then the drop through maybe but uh this this is you know we're right here around that 100.7 area right now you know 100's huge 100's big you know psychological level it's a tens number it's a it's a zeros number uh you know 100 is huge 100 is big you know psychological level it's a tens number it's a zeros number uh you know i mean it just it's just begging to be cracked and when it cracked i mean you can see we've been going sideways since the first touch way over here on uh february the beginning of february so you know however many months that is because i can't count really well uh yeah what is it about six months for yourself seven months i'm like everything the row there was it looks like 30th of january 1st of february ish

yeah five months and you see we've hit it multiple times and so i'm just expected to kind of come on through so nothing's changed there uh with that anything dollar based you know uh price wise is going to get a lot of pressure taken off it um So, you know, to me, that signals, hey, we've got some upside coming for, you know, Bitcoin and crypto and stocks and whatnot overall. Yeah. I mean, I just had this DXY chart. I thought it was going to break down on this sort of head and shoulders. This is a weak left shoulder, of course. But now it kind of looks like you have a complex head and shoulders and still is just going to die. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Heading down toward those low nineties area,

you know, same thing I've been talking about since guys, I guess, since we hit that top up there. So I feel good about it. I like it. It doesn't mean things happen overnight. I think a lot of people hear this and they go,

Oh my God, tomorrow we're today. Uh, but again, I do think we'll likely get a bounce here, uh, for a little bit, and then we'll get the follow through lower.

And then it's going to, you know, it's going to be a strong move down. It's a third wave, third of a third wave. So yeah. So, yeah. It's gapped up big time, I just saw. Excuse me, do what?

I just happened to see the SPX gapped up pretty big today. Now, I guess no surprises there on that news. So what are you looking at with Bitcoin? Are we still looking at the same kind of targets? High 30, low 40s, maybe even? Yeah, yeah. Nothing's changed there. Right now, you know, we're still sideways.

You don't enter into a trade here. We're basically around the mid-range here of this range that we've been in for a few weeks. It's not a good place to enter. You're usually looking for some kind of reaction or follow-through at the swing low or the swing high before you enter. But, you know, I think we might get a move up toward the top of the range pull back and then break out and uh you know we've got a one two one two here so wave circle three right up there around 43 380 where i mean you know just so you know i don't you know i think a lot of people go on here they go oh that's what you have to do that's what you think is gonna happen we

that's what i think but there's always uh invalidations and whatnot so i could see a potential dip down below the swing low here to tag the daily pivot area and rally up but if we're falling impulsively through this daily pivot and we close below like on a four hour time frame i think there's a good chance we come on down here maybe to 27 three or maybe uh even um s1 26 four down here but to me all that is that there would just be a one and a two and then we've got three up so nothing more than what we've had here along the way which are just pullbacks before we rally higher so that that's the complete way how i'm looking at it you know if we do pull back i'm not worried about it here's where i'm looking here's where do you worry that's and i was giving my next

question for me it's if we retrace that entire I'm not worried about it. Here's where I'm looking. Where do you worry? So that was going to be my next question. For me, it's if we retrace that entire BlackRock move and go like below 25 and start closing candles. Then I would start to be concerned that I'm wrong. Yeah, yeah. I mean, until for me, until it actually breaks down below this swing low here. So what is this? That's at 24, 25,000. Yeah.

Until we actually break down there, I'm not even worried about it. If we do that, I mean, you know, again, I've talked about the possibility that the other option was maybe this is a leading diagonal here. So we go one, two, three, four, five. Right. And we're there. Yeah. But if it's a diagonal, you should be getting a strong reaction drop off the, you know,

when you hit that swing high and with this going sideways. So that really puts that low on my list of possibilities of what's going on right now. Okay. So then what are you looking at beyond this? Because I agree with you. Bitcoin's not tradable. I've been saying, I mean, you just can't touch it. Yeah.

It doesn't make any sense. Yeah. Unless you're like in a five minute timeframe or something. Yeah. So, right. I mean, I was laughing. I mean, the five minute today at least did, oh, it's down at that. When you look at the five minute, which is this, it does look really exciting. Yeah. right. I mean, I was laughing. I mean, the five minute today at least did. Oh, it's down at that. When you look at the five minute, which is this, it does look really exciting.

Yeah, right. Yeah, but, you know, you got the pump on. It's weird. I mean, it's always this case, though, even when you look on low timeframes at the first reaction to any of these big news events is wrong. Yeah, yeah. It pumped right up to 31,000, which, by the way, it should be a bullish thing. And then all of a sudden dumps, it's just always wrecks everybody on both sides. Always volatile, always volatile around news events. That's why I usually try to stay out at those times. Um, but yeah, I mean, I've got a couple of things I'm watching here. I've got this, uh, wifi USDT here. This is the weekly chart. Uh, I think this gives us probably a pretty awesome opportunity down here to buy. If we can break out through 11-2-10, that's going to confirm that. And we've

got a minimal expected target of 21-2-60, but that's just on the way up higher. At that point, I would expect us to take out the swing high and continue heading up on there. So right now, I want to see it break out above this 11 to 10 to really get excited about it. But like I said, that gives us a minimum expected target right there, 21 to 60. And that just sets the stage for,

you know, much further up overall on that. Anything else you're looking at? Yeah, man, I got two more here. I've got, I can't remember.

Oh man, there's over 300. Wow. Crazy. Oh, they're all doing great, man. Yeah. Yeah. I've man, there's over 300. Wow. Crazy. Oh, they're all doing great, man. Yeah, yeah. I've got INJUSDT here, weekly again. It looks like we're doing 1, 2, 3, 4. Then we got 1, 2, 3, 4.

So we got a fifth wave. I'm thinking we're headed up here to this R2 pivot area on the weekly, right around $13 10 cents or so um and a rejection there will pull us back down to this uh you know this r1 pivot or a little bit below it right in this area the what is that seven dollars and 15 seven dollars and 20 cents and then again you know it's going to be off to the races after that for inj i and j's been that one's just been doing great here off that swing low from last year, off that July period. Yeah, it just had this break, too. I mean, Friday, when he was descending, I mean, that's pretty clean. One, two, three, four, five of touches up,

perfect retest, and just moving off, right? So yeah, that to me is one of my favorite charts right now as well. Oh been loving it's been great yeah um and here's the did you remember theta i introduced i i do i actually clicked i saw that it was like uh maybe it was one of the trending coins today or i just happened to i was scrolling through the screener and it was up like seven or eight percent when everything else was kind of flat so i did notice that today yeah I mean, it looks like it's doing pretty good here. It looks like we've got a 1-2, 1-2 set up. It gives us this interior wave three minimum expected target

around 88 and a half cents. It gives us that larger wave three up here around $1.16. And, you know, again, that just kind of sets up further movement up. By the way, that's an initial target of $1.16 secondary target. It'll probably hit the secondary target about $1.30 because it looks like we're going to get some overextension here as we get to this wave three. So I think it'll probably get up there to about $1.30.

And again, that's just, you know, setting up the start on the way to the higher moves up. I see something hilarious here. I love to open these charts, the like of names you bring up that I haven't looked at in a long time, and then you bring it up, and it looks like this. $8.60, $6, $4.40,

$2.20, where you have to, that was obviously wrong, where you have to scroll down to find the price action because you just kept going. It's hilarious. But yeah, I mean, look looking on the week i bet that's going to be a bullish divergence there have you even checked yeah i like that man and i like where that low comes in if you look left over this i knew it would be oh that's beautiful look at that

oh no not quite actually that was a lower low i thought i mean you kind of have a long one here it's probably there like on the monthly but yeah pretty that's a pretty nice low off of this right here right i mean yeah i love yeah i love the area that it's fine in there i like the reaction so you know we're looking forward to just got to continue up through that i mean you gotta love that look at that yep that's beautiful just need that far have you ever thought of it and now i'm just like sorry i'm gonna put your screen back on and yeah that kind of thing going on. Yeah.

Yeah. I just got on a little charting spree there. Yeah. No, I mean, yeah. You know, that's the way it looks for a lot of mine as well. You know, we kind of pull it in there, especially these older coins that we've been looking at. You and I have been trading for, you know, years and you kind of then, you know, it's

bear market. And then it was all the new stuff prior to that. And you kind of look at it, you go, dang, okay. It just kept on falling there. But Mark Ferris said that, sorry, Mark Ferris, does anyone know which volume profile indicator that is? I can't find one that ties itself to the right edge like that. Is that just standard VPVR or do you have a special one?

No, no, no. That's just the VPVR or the visual range. Yeah. VPVR, Mark. That's what it's called. I don't think you can find it anymore typing in VPVR like we used to. I think you have to type in visual range now. Really? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. VPVR, Mark. That's what it's called. I don't think you can find it anymore typing in VPVR like we used to. I think you have to type in visual range now. Really?

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It changed a lot on trade view actually in the last few weeks, but it's really great because it gives you another sort of way to use volume to look at resistance and support. Yeah. I looked at it. It helped you where the market's increasing.

You know that there's a bunch of people trying to probably get out of an old position they've been sitting in forever. Wait, we try and get out of it? I thought we just let it go to zero and then complain about it. Well, that too. That too. Try to see.

Someone was asking, Brian wants to know, will Link ever go up again? Oh, Brian. Brian, check this out, man. Check this. I bet you have to link out. I thought I saw it up there.

Look at that right there. I think Link is in one of the most epic accumulations and will just absolutely moon when finally everyone's asking that question. Oh, yeah. I mean, it looks just primed right now. I mean, I look at that structure. It looks, I mean, you know, nothing's ever guaranteed.

But, man, when I'm looking at that, that volume price relationship and how we've got going on there, I mean, that looks like clear accumulation again, and it's coming at, you know, this, this significant area here, right? This, this resistance support right here. Um, we just hit this high volume note area. So, you know, pop above that, man, there we go. Probably up toward the the swing high here at around nine and a half pull back and then probably break out after that but uh yeah man i've been talking about that one for months i love that uh one of my favorites to you know to be talking about everybody freaked out when it dropped down below when it broke down i was like oh yeah

look i told you it was gonna go down it's dead it's going to zero and it like squeaked just a little bit there and then it went sideways and then back up yeah i mean i'm looking on the weekly and it has that perfect view you outlined it there but that spring yeah i mean i'm trying to just show people what we're talking about here you kind of have it but if you even just look at this entire thing as a range right yep i would pull it maybe like that mean, this is such a nice fake out. You know, volume went up below the range from being completely dead. That's going to go up. Yeah.

By the way, guys, that structure you've got there that Scott was just pointing out, you've got the large candle down, the little doji, and then the large candle back up. Most often when you see that at the end of a a uh in this case we're coming down so at the end of a downtrend it usually indicates a low has been put in uh that you've got some kind of reversal going on of course nothing is guaranteed 100 of the time but usually if you see that or if it's going up and you see the opposite where you see a big candle up little doji and then big candle backs down it's there goes a kind of reversal going on there. More to add on to that possibility. But man, love the link chart. It's one of

my favorites. I'm not even sure if I love the chart or the question more. Will it ever go up again? Makes the chart look so much better. Yeah, yeah. So, love it, man. It's great. It's fantastic. You know,

I don't know, man. When maybe we sit here we look at uh god let me see if i can find it here real quick i've got my uh my uh s&p futures here the mini the e-minis yeah i mean we just continue doing you know again i've got this target kind of up here around 45 72 and a quarter we've got a pattern target up here at about uh 46 41 50 um you know overall it's just let me kind of zoom out here to the weekly here real quick i get rid of some of this other stuff well i mean you know again the same thing i've been talking about everybody's kind of giving me a hard time about when i said it looked like we may have that bottom down there we're doing an abc um well there's divergence all over the place oh man, man, it's just, yeah, you know,

it's crazy. Here we go. We continue to go up and people have been arguing, you know, like Bitcoin, they've been arguing since the lows. It's going to, you know, it's going to go down. It's going to go down. They missed all this movement. I mean, here we are above that, you know, the daily. Here we are above the weekly pivot. I mean, man, it's hard to say that there's anything macro wise that's more bullish than what we're seeing there, especially this movement up off this weekly pivot. We broke out above it, you know, pull back, retested as support, rallied up here almost to the R1 pivot. I mean, this is just about as bullish as it gets on that large timeframe. So it's not that it's going to continue going straight up from here, but you know, we're probably nearing a reversal point probably. And then we'd look for it to pull back a bit.

But, man, it should stay above that weekly pivot. And when you get that pullback, if you want to enter, if it's coming back down there toward that weekly pivot, that's where you're looking for that reversal. You want to be in on that. There's nothing I see on any – this is what scares me. There's nothing I see on any chart that I've looked at that indicates anything other than that the bottoms are in everywhere.

Yeah, yeah. any chart that I've looked at that indicates anything other than that the bottoms are in everywhere. Yeah. Yeah. And then, but again, you know, I see. It doesn't, I mean, that could be, God knows. Yeah. You know, they don't know, but you know, nothing's guaranteed, guys. Absolutely anything can happen and we're giving you our opinions based on what's going on and what we know from past experience.

But, you know, at this point, if the bottom's not in, you should be of mind that price has to actually show you. You know, the chart has to actually show you. The onus is on the chart now to prove that the bottom's not in because everything in its grandmother, every kind of indicator we're looking at basically screaming, the bottom's likely in.

So, you know, man, look how close we are to the all-time high. It's crazy. Right here, knocking on the door. What interest rate hikes, what dip? Now, to be fair, historically, you know, if you get like a major recession or depression, you do get these mind-melting sort of bull rallies that go pretty close to the highs.

It even happened, I think, in 29 in the Great Depression. Sure, sure. And here's the thing, you know, again, if we're looking at this, you know, if I'm thinking this is a wave three and we're on this wave four here, but there's multiple ways this could play out. It could be done here, ABC down and we go up. It could be a flat. So we get ABC down, we get ABC up toward the all time high, maybe even peaking out a bit. And So we get ABC down, we get ABC up toward the all-time high, maybe even peeking out a bit. And then we get five waves back down to the swing low or a little bit lower, right? Could be a triangle. So we get ABC down as A, we'll get ABC up as B, then we'll have to do C, D, E, and then we break out. So these are things I've been talking about for months as well,

because I'm looking at this as a fourth wave wave and so there's multiple ways this could play out and it's gonna kill people you know if it's if it's a flat or even a triangle people are going to fall it over themselves because they can't figure out what's going on they got everybody yelling recession and all this stuff so they think oh my god it's got to go down but at the same time price every time it looks like it's going to go down it does a little bit then you get ready to do it and then it goes back up and you're like what the heck right yeah so um really tells me to know your pivot setting i think yeah they're just um auto auto and and i just use there's multiple different pivots guys uh i put out a pivots master course but um i just use traditional pivots and just on auto and uh i run with that i learned you know when i was using them for years alone just by

themselves uh I've learned to read them that way. So for me, that's- I keep saying for people who are new, like, it's just the best because you don't have to drum them. You don't have to argue about them. They're just there. Yeah.

Yeah, exactly. They're there to help you. They're there to be your best friend. Absolutely. Anything else you're looking at before we go? Oh, let me see here the answer can be no it's fine yeah I'm just trying to see if I got anything up here it's really worth kind of looking at

I mean we can jump here to Litecoin real quick we were talking about that with Josh and he was saying he was sort of surprised why has Bitcoin cash pumped so hard when Litecoin is only up 27% and Bitcoin Cash is doing multiples? Yeah, yeah. Litecoin, I mean, for me, it looks like we've got this 1-2-1-2 kind of going on here. So, you know, your initial three, about $145.

Your larger degree three up here at around $157.5. And that's kind of where i'm looking right now for this to go up i want to see an impulsive breakout here above this uh hourly pivot if we can do it this week that's right there at around 101 and almost 102 dollars but uh if we jump out here to the daily you can see that we're just you know we're flirting with the daily pivot here so we get this pop up here and come up through the top of this uh swing high this range here right around what is that there that's 105.72 we pop that you know then we should be good to go on those higher movements up but you know again you know litecoin was the one that i was talking about back here um most recently in this uh october november area, about, you know, wanting to be long. That one is right

around 50. And so, you know, this has been another great one that we've been in. And then we just had kind of this sideways consolidation. Now we get some movement out of it. But like you said, man, it's hard to find charts that are really kind of screaming bearish, much less kind of hinting bearish. Everything seems to be pointing to the upside so you know what do we do as traders we play the charts man you know don't worry about what everybody else is talking about don't worry about the news and whatnot play the charts until they show you something different at least you've got an opportunity to get in then other than sitting on the sidelines you know kicking yourself because it keeps going up without you and you're too scared to get in

right talk about pain yeah you got it man all, man. All right. Well, you know, Twitter Spaces. We got to get you on Twitter Spaces. Yeah, man. Keep you down because we always, yeah, there's like days when there's no huge news cycle and we just want to talk about the market and things are happening. It's a little strange of a forum, obviously, because you can't show your charts in the same way. Yeah.

Sure, man. Definitely. Awesome. We're going to do that for sure. All right, man. man well thank you so much for joining we'll see you next Wednesday sounds good man appreciate it stay bullish my friends take care guys alright guys that's all I got for you today of course

going over to Twitter spaces in a moment I believe we've got Raul Paul today Peter Brandt on Twitter spaces so should be another pretty epic one over there. And of course, uh, mark your calendars, but now my brain is, uh, not getting the date, but for the 26th, uh, I would be interviewing RFK, uh, over on Twitter spaces. That's all I got for you guys today. I will be back. Of course, tomorrow. Thank you for tuning in and check out Melt. Peace.