The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Whales Dump $45B While The Fed Pumps In $50B To Save Markets!

Episode Date: November 5, 2025

Bitcoin faces renewed selling pressure as whales unload over $4.5 billion in positions, triggering massive liquidations across crypto markets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve injected $50 billion into the U.S. economy to prevent a potential credit crunch, highlighting growing financial instability. With Bitcoin sliding toward key support near $100K and risk assets turning lower, investors are asking whether this marks the start of a deeper correction or a setup for the next major move.

Bitcoin whales continue to dump their Bitcoin 400,000 coins last month and another $45 billion worth on this correction. Obviously, as we discussed on Macro Monday, we also have the Fed injecting a ton of liquidity, at least through the reverse repo, $50 billion one day, over $20 billion. Another, there's a lot going on under the service, leading many to think that we are in the depths of a bare market. It's all over. I think we're so back.

But I'm going to discuss all that with one of my all-time favorites, Mr. Mark Yusko. Let's go. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the depths of hell. We are in a bare market. Bitcoin had the audacity to temporarily drop below a hundred. hundred thousand dollars, unimaginable levels of lows. I can't believe it could possibly go that low mark. Of course, I'm being sarcastic. I'm old enough to remember earlier this year when I was euphoric when Bitcoin broke above $100,000. $100,000. Yeah. I mean,

let's zoom out a little bit, you know, even just a little bit. I mean, a year ago, right, one year ago, we were 56% lower, right? Now, people say, oh, but, but if you fast forward, you know, a month, which is true, you fast forward a month, you know, we're coming up on the period where from December, you know, mid-teens last year, we're flat. Like, okay. But to your point, It's still a $100,000 per coin. And we're having a interesting period here in that we run a venture fund, Morgan Creek Digital. And our first fund we invested in 2018.

And long story short, 80% that goes into equity, 20% goes into digital assets. We have a meaningful amount of a Bitcoin in there. and you know we have to return the capital to shareholders not our money right um and you know most of us who are invested in it are going to take it in kind but there are some that they can't do that for for uh institutional reasons so now for the first time ever will we will sell some that we haven't done anything this moment um but that is no reflection on price but my the point of telling the story. Their cost bases, $5,000, which is not that long ago. I mean, we're talking seven, eight-ish years, you know, years. It's not that long ago. If SBF had been running your

fund, he would not be returning that money to investors just for the record. Just for the record. And hey, there's one quick thing. You know, you opened it up talking about the whales. It is interesting. You know, we were on kismet that, you know, the prep. So I'll see if I can do it. But I did wear the Bitcoin Whale sock game today. Wow. Which is kind of funny. I mean, I did not plan that we would be talking about the whales.

But I did wear it today. But I mean, tis the season to be talking about the whales because that has been the story, right? That's been the offsetting supply that has. I guess, sold into all of this institutional demand that we see there, all the inflows from the ETFs. I mean, it's indisputable fact at this point. These guys are selling. Not all of them, but they have a lot more coins than people seem to imagine when these

guys can just send 10,000 coins here, 50,000 coins there, 30,000. I guess we can debate endlessly why they would be doing that. I think there's a lot of obvious reasons, but it never sees it to amaze me just how much money these guys have in Bayquois? Well, it's, I mean, for sure, again, because if you, if your cost basis is pennies or fractions of a penny in some cases, you know, the sign right behind me, right, is not the real one. It's, it's a, you know, Christian made it for me. So it's, it's kind of a semi-original, but it's not the original one from the Yellen conference. And I kind of wanted the original and I asked him if he'd sell it to me. He's like, no, I think I'm going to put it in a museum.

Like, it will be in a museum, my museum. And I would share it with people. Anyway, so he decided to put it on auction last year. And, you know, I decided, okay, I'll bid for it. But I knew this would happen. There are lots of people, like lots of people who have way lower cost basis than I do. Yeah, like 10 cents. Well, this guy was single digit pennies. And, you know, And it's a funny story, right? He was sitting at Pubkey. And the rumor is. Now, I don't know if this is true or if it's an embellishment. Someone said, hey, is this, is this some like random homeless guy off the street? Because he, he looked a little scragy and he, you know, he wasn't dressed in a suit and had, you know, kind of rough beard. And then he bid way more than anybody else. And it was not real money. And it's not that it's not that it's not real money. It's, to him, the cost basis is zero. So he can buy something he wants, which is kind of cool. Infinitely.

And so these guys obviously would sell for that reason. It's just too much money. They got 10, 15 years older. They had families. They want a yacht instead of driving a corolla from 85. Like, it's going to the government and Black Rock. They've seen Black Rock and the government come in and start, you know, maybe violating some of their libertarian ideals.

And they're like, eff it. And the funny thing is, is that some of these guys could be selling $10 billion worth of it and still have $90 billion more. Oh, no, no, exactly. Exactly. The one thing that bothers me, we talked a little bit about this before we went on air, the relatively small amount that can cause meaningful moves in price is still bugging me. And this is one of my personal pet peeves about market cap generally.

like you have all these, you know, I'll call the alt coins, right, that claim they have these big market caps. And like, you're taking the last like 10 tokens traded at some price, multiplying that by billions of tokens and getting a market cap. If the person who formed that token were to sell one, not like five or 10, one, like if Elon sold one doge coin, what happens to the price of Dogecoin. It goes down a lot. But Bitcoin shouldn't, in my mind, be quite like that because, yes, we do the same silly thing. We create the market cap by saying, oh, if Scott and Mark exchange a Bitcoin for $102,946, and there are, you know, 18 million-ish Bitcoin, then the market cap is, you know, 2.1 trillion. Okay. But we sold one Bitcoin. You can't price a whole market

based on one transaction, but that's the way we do it in all assets. Yeah, I mean, if the Satochia wallet started moving coins around, but I don't think that's going to happen. It might, shake the trust and might move different than its market cap would imply, for example. Yeah, no, exactly. And look, I think the other thing is, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, on record that we are in crypto winner. Now, I didn't say exactly the date, but in February, I said that, look, the four-year cycle's not dead. Humans are going to human. And we will, we humans, will push the price above fair value. I mean, you know Tim Peterson. Yeah, we've talked about this a lot. Where do you see fair value now? Just as kind of table set information. I talked to Tim,

I talked to Tim for a long time on Friday. I had a long car ride. We just we just chatted. 91.92K is fair value. And we say, you can't determine it. I'm like, he's been doing it for eight years. And it's pretty damn accurate. And the idea of Metcalf's law applying to networks and Bitcoin is clearly a network and we can gather all of the inputs into that network and we can calculate a number. And if that number tends to correlate to the price over a long period of time, one might say that the model has some value. So, and what's crazy to me, you know, you and I have been doing these kind of things for a long time. So back in 2017, the fair value was 10. And we hit 10 within, actually, this is crazy, within four days

of the model. The model said November 6th, it hit November 10th. And a month later, we were 20. Well, if you're two times fair value, what is likely to happen? Now, interestingly, it happened precisely on the day. And you know, you knew I would go down the sinister path here, but precisely December 18th to the day that the CME released futures contracts. And that goes to about six months earlier when Leo Melamed, the chairman of the CME, said, look, we will tame Bitcoin. That's a weird word. That's a, that's a, that's a, that's a confrontational word. So what does that mean? Well, that means that if I can, in the old

days, if I wanted to sell you a Bitcoin, I actually had to have a Bitcoin. Just like if in the old days of oil, if I wanted to sell you a barrel of oil, I had to have ownership of said oil. But in the futures market. No, no, no, no, no. I can create something out of thin air in paper and I can just execute a sale. So the price collapsed from, you know, 20 to 10 to 6. And I, this is the one thing I am nervous about Scott. And I don't think it's going to happen, but I am nervous about it. If you remember November 6th back in 2018, we were sitting at 6K, and everybody's like, okay, that's it, the bottom. Oh, man, that 6K floor.

And holy crap. I mean, it was 24 hours, 24 hours. It might have been 36 hours. It was in the 3s. But it was super fast. And we were at 3,400. And everybody's like, that can't happen. just did. And so then, okay, we start going back up. So then we get to the 21 cycle and we get to,

you know, fair value had crept up to about 32, 33K. And we went all the way to 69. And again, to the day November 21st or something like that, CME releases more futures, more weapons of mass destruction. and we top at 69 and go all the way down to 15. And now at 15, if fair value is 40, what happens? Investors start to accumulate. But then we go back. So now here we are. And what's interesting is every halving, we add a zero, meaning we 10x the market

cap. And that's kind of the parabolic, you know, Metcalf's law kind of model is we went from 10 to 100, 100 to 1,000, 1,000 to 10,000, 10,000, this time 100,000, which means the next having, we go to a million, and it's like, that can never happen. I'm like, no, it can. And it actually will. But, but, but I don't know, it's not going to be a straight line. So my point is, in February, I said, look, contrary to popular belief, four year cycle is not dead. And we will enter fourth quarter and we will have a peak, a speculative blowoff peak, just like the last ones. And depending on how high we get above fair value, we'll have, you know, that type of

correction. I didn't think we'd get as high as 2x, right? We were 2x and 17, 2x and 21. I thought this time we'd hit 150, 170, which would have been, you know, 50 to 70% above fair value. A fair value was ticking around 100. Long story short. I also, and I didn't get too specific on this, but I did change my view a couple weeks ago. And I saw the tweet from the guy from two years ago who said October 6th was going to be the peak. And there's a reason for that is it's not a four-year cycle. It's a number of blocks cycle. And the number of blocks is one month less. And the number of blocks is one month less than four years. So December 18th, then November 21st, October 6th was the day. You think the top is in? You think the top is in? No, so I, I'm not saying it is, but what I'm saying

is it's possible, right? Sure. The difference, the difference is, but Mark, things have changed. There's more institutional demand. Yes, there is. Mark, things have changed. The E.T. Yes. Yep. But what hasn't changed is human nature to lever up. You said a million dollar idea. Don't get liquidated. Right. I know. It's crazy. Crazy. It might be a million dollar idea just for one person. And it's, but here it's it's a crazy, crazy phenomenon. I shouldn't rat out my family member. I won't say which one, but I shouldn't rat him out. The brother. But I've told the story before. I know. In the last cycle, he calls him and said, they stole my Bitcoin. I'm like, what are you talking about?

Well, I was on BitFinex. I'm like, stop. No. No one stole your Bitcoin. Now, some might argue that that is their business model, lure people in with the promise of riches. And then when they can't make the margin call, you confiscate their Bitcoin. So maybe you could call that theft. But the reality is you chose to lever up your Bitcoin 50 to 1. You don't lever an 80-val asset at 50 to one unless you plan on being less rich. Yeah, I don't personally, I think, I think it's gonna just be boring between 100 and 125. I have no idea, but that's what, at 126,

I was like, we'll probably range down to 100, and here we are and people are in charge. Yeah, and that point, Scott is important in that if 126 was kind of all the juice we had in terms of the over lever, because there's less leverage in the system and so much spoofing going on. I mean, the amount of spoofing going on by J.P. Morgan, I shouldn't name names, but by the big dogs, right? We can name names, but we know this is happening, right? They do it. See, commodities are an interesting thing. There's a reason, I believe, that Bitcoin was called a commodity, not a security. And everybody's like, oh, no, that's great. We didn't want to be a security. Be careful what you ask for. I believe it was

intentional to call it a commodity so that Leo Melamede and his buddies and the big dogs could use paper to manipulate the price. And so that little thing that everybody thinks was an afterthought, oh, they didn't, they couldn't figure out what it was. So they just called it a commodity. No, no, no. it was intentional to make it a commodity because commodities can be controlled. And so, but my point is if fair value is 91 and let's say it's somewhere between 91 and 100 because you don't have a perfect accuracy. And we only got to 26, 126, a 26% kind of premium to fair value doesn't need an 84% correction or a 75% correction. That's right.

So maybe we're just becoming more. boring yeah yeah and so you know we just got to 99 maybe that's just one of those close enough things yeah and i look i i i am worried you know a little bit a little bit and i talk for with tim a lot about this that that there is this kind of of super cleansing that has to happen in in these in these periods where you basically got to wipe out all of the leverage. Have you looked at all coins in the $19.2 billion leverage, you know, unwind on finance and friends a few weeks ago? We've had some pretty brutal times.

Like, it's easy to look at Bitcoin and say it's pretty good, you know, 100K. I'm happy. But meanwhile, like, your all coins are in the dumpster for a lot of people. Oh, no, no. Look, I promised you I wouldn't pick on the XRP this morning. Did you see this? Wait? Yeah. Justin, Ripple raises $500 million at a $40 billion valuation.

Did you see that? No, I did not. Wow. I see it now. It was like Citadel Securities and I mean some huge names, obviously, in this round here. Just happened while we were talking, I saw it. No, I mean, now again, Ripple is not XRP, but, but Bravo to Brad. I can only give them golf clap on that.

I mean, that, I mean, Citadel Securities are real people. I mean, they are super real people. I assume Paradigms probably in there, too. They tend to do a lot of stuff together. I don't, I don't really understand. By Fortress and Citadel Securities. I don't know who else is in there, but probably Paradox. I'm sure.

Yeah. Bravo. I mean, that's a stunning development in my mind. really good, actually really good for me now that I think about it, because I invested with Dan Moorhead, who was one of the earliest investors in Pantera. So the value of our Pantera investment probably just went up by a lot, actually. Yeah, you were starting by saying you weren't going to pick on anyone. Then I interrupted you. Maybe you were going to. I don't think we know. But I think we have a fair value problem across the crypto ecosystem is maybe where you

were going. Yeah. Because you can watch all coins literally go to like zero and back in a day. This is non-specific tax RP, like all of it, right? So like what's the value of any of these? If the networks are like maybe. If you're a meme coin, you have to understand. Like when, you know, when, you know, Janet Yellen or, you know, Christine Lagarde, you know, the evil women of the world, when they say, you know, these things have no fair value, no, no intrinsic. You know, intrinsic value. Like, you mean different from the euro or the dollar, which has no intrinsic value? I can't, I can't exchange a dollar for anything. I don't get gold. I don't get silver. I don't get, I don't get tax receipts. I don't get war reparations. I don't get anything. It's just belief in

custom. So, but belief in custom is, is different in the sense of if there's belief and custom broadly, then an asset can be used as a medium exchange or restore value. A meme coin, monetization of attention. I mean, for a moment, it can, it can go to crazy numbers. But unless you sell it and convert it into something where belief in customs, like, you can't go anywhere and buy anything with Dogecoin or, you know, fart coin or, but if, if, if you sell it to I remember when you could buy Maverick, I remember when you could buy Dallas Maverick's gear with Joe's coin apparently. Ah, okay. All right. I stand corrected. I stand corrected for five minutes, maybe. Go ahead. Sorry. No, no. And look, if I were Mark Cuban, I would try to create something,

you know, but. A moment in time that was. Those were all top signals, by the way. Of course they were. Because, look, I, there are thousands and thousands of tokens, because creating a token is, is not that challenging. I mean, I, you know, it's not something I every day, but there are people who can do it in, you know, five seconds. So that and then promoting it and getting people to believe in it is a whole other thing. And I'd say the XRP army or the, you know, Cardano army. I mean, these are rabid believers. And, you know, again, if you do the market cap, they look like very big assets. But I will contend that if anyone tried to sell any amount of that asset, the market cap would vaporize.

I think we're going to eventually prove all of those theories right with most of these tokens, obviously. And there's something I know that you think is sinister and like to talk about. So I actually happen to randomly have three stories about CBDCs today. Awesome. Bond will settle with wholesale CBDC. Here comes Hong Kong. CBDC with stable coin mechanics. Indonesia's digital rupea to be backed by government bonds, and of course, Christine Lagarde. Digital EurocbVC is a symbol of trust in our common destiny of eating, bugs, and liking

it. She didn't say, yeah, look, I mean, there is not a human, well, actually, there's one other. She's the second worst face of evil on the planet. Augustine Carstons or whatever's name is, is the worst. But Christine has always been the first. face of evil. I mean, she's, she's been doing bad stuff for a long time. And it's not shocking at all that people are moving to governments are embracing CBDCs. Why? Well, and I get full credit to Pippa Malmgren. So Pippa's dad was, you know, Department of State guy for years,

passed away, rest in peace. But Pippa is, has been talking about. talked about this for a while in that when a government gets overly indebted, right? They basically have four choices. We can pay off the debt. Well, they can't do that, right? Because they just don't have enough wealth or capital to do it. So then you can restructure the debt. Well, no one will take the other side, right? If I own a treasury, you can't say I'll give you 60 cents on the dollar because I expect a dollar. You can default, but then you get kicked out of power, right? You know, a.k.a. Argentina or Venezuela or whatever. So that's bad. Politicians don't like to default. So what do they do? They devalue. Well, devaluation is why currencies all go to zero,

which is why Bitcoin goes up. Because Bitcoin doesn't change. One Bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin, like one ounce of gold is one ounce of gold. What changes the number of dollars or rupea or euros that you need to acquire said one. But the real problem here is back in the 1830s, the U.K., right, which was the, remember, the U.K. was the center of the universe, world reserve currency, most powerful nation in the world, son never said in the British Empire. They owned pretty much everything and everyone, not so nice, actually. but they got super indebted, you know, they financed a bunch of foreign wars that they couldn't cover.

And back then, the way they kept records, this is crazy, is using pieces of wood called tally sticks. Like, I would lend you money and I would make a notch on my stick and I'd make a notch on your stick. And I gave you, wait for it, the short end of the stick. Yeah, which is where that phrase comes from, right? You got the short end of the stick. So you were the debtor. Because remember, if you were a debtor in ancient times, you were a bad person. Like you could go to debtor's prison.

And it wasn't like today where, oh, I have a big credit line. I'm a big man or a big woman. You know, I got this big credit card, but it's debt. How much would you use your little plastic thing called a debt card instead of a credit card? I don't know, probably less. But long story is I had the long end of stick, you had the short end of the stick, and if I were a big financier, I'd have a bunch of these tally sticks, right? Well, the government said, you know what? We're going to get rid of all that. We owe you guys a bunch of money, but we're not going to pay it back. So we're going to collect all the tally sticks and we're going to burn them. And we're just going to start over. We're going to adopt dual entry accounting, you know, Medici kind of dual entry, green eye shade. ledger pads. And the funny part of the story is they burned parliament down while they were

burning the tally sticks because the furnace caught on fire. But they did. They reset. Now, who won who lost? Well, obviously the government won because they stayed in power and they didn't have to pay back any of their debts. But they had to adopt a new monetary system. So let's think about this. Government's all around the world. Too much in debt. never pay it back. We owe $38 trillion. No way we're going to pay it back. So what if you created this new accounting system, this new monetary system, and you flush the old system? Okay, that's totally logical. So this is our tally stick moment. Oh, but wait, it's better. Like in the green eye shade, you know, two to leisure system, you actually need a,

bank, okay, the Medici's, to be the referee, right? Because you write down a number. I write down a number. I could change my number. But the bank, you know, is the arbiter and got accountants and auditors and seven trillion dollars of slippage, which everybody loves. Well, now we got this programmable thing. Well, wait a second. Like if you listen to Augustin-Carsden, it's like, well, of course, we should determine when and if you can actually use your money. Like, You get paid, and the CBDC can say, well, unless you spend your money by Friday, it goes away. And hey, you know what? Target just made a little contribution to the party. So your money doesn't work at Walmart anymore.

So, I mean, that could never happen. Bullshit. All of that can happen. And worse, way, way worse. Because now we got digital ID. Oh, you want to go on vacation in the UK? I'm sorry. you said something bad about the prime minister. You can't come in. I mean, it is a dystopian nightmare.

And if you want to get me really started, let's talk about the digital gulogs that are being built by Sam Altman and friends under the guise of AI. No, it is, it is not intelligence in any way, shape, or form. It is completely artificial. But more importantly, it ain't about anything other than, control, manipulation, and slavery. Like, let's think about this. You go into the open AI product now, and it won't give you health advice. It won't give you financial advice.

It won't give you legal advice. Who made that decision? Oh. I was going to give us health advice. I was giving us all health advice until, like, last week. No, that's what I'm saying. But here's the thing. they, so someone, I mean, the idea of the internet is all of mankind's information is open and

available to anyone who wants it. The name open AI implies, if you ask me, you know, I'm not a linguist, but it implies that this is an open system, not a closed system that, look, if I ask Google a question. I know that the answer is mostly paid for. Like, they're giving me back ads and stuff. And like, if I ask for, you know, what's the best stroller for my grandkids? I actually don't get consumer reports anymore or strollers.com. I get someone trying to sell me a stroller. So I get how that model works. And I can ignore it and I can kind of search through and find the place where I could find about strollers. But in this new world, this digital gulag, they're like, I don't like the fact that you asked a question. You're not supposed to be talking about strollers. And let's make

it real. Okay. Forget strollers. How do you make a bomb? Okay. Maybe it's a science project for my kid, but you can't say that. And, and now the AI will say, well, that information is not available to you. Oh, and by the way, we've notified the proper authorities and they'll be at your, you know, home to pick you up. Like, but it's a science project. I mean, and, and I get it that there are delicate things and there are things, but I'm probably in trouble for even using the word on, on the internet. They're listening. They're listening. They're listening. They're Well, actually, to that point, there was a time here in Chapel Hill during the whole, you know, a 9-11 stuff, this student rented a van and drove into the main square of the campus. And it was a Middle Eastern student.

And so someone, you know, emailed me and said, hey, what's this jihad stuff going on? And I said, dude, do not use that word in my email because, yeah, the g-men are listening. in. Well, the CBDC people are definitely coming for parts of the world. I think that's very, very clear. There's a billion more things I want to talk about, but we've reached our time. Mark, you know, that is always the way it goes with you and me, Scott. Part of it, as my wife says, Mark, you talk too much. And I like, yeah, I do. I like to talk. But get that for my wife, too. What are you going to do? Well, thank you to, I guess if you're Marky, Mark, I'm the funky bunch. absolutely and and give and give your better 90% of me um i will you know i i like uh yeah yeah you're good you know you have great presence on the end but you know emmy emmy ups the game every now and then and and does a good job so it's it's not easy being me sometimes i gotta say same for you buddy thank you so much mark we'll see you very very soon all right see you skeeter all right guys obviously got uh christopher inks coming on next to discuss

us how it's all over again because that's what we're talking about but first obviously since it is wednesday and we've got a year of doing this check out all the incredible things that aptos did in october major partnerships record breaking performance milestones excited ecosystem developments and events from token 2049 to aptos experience myc global trading engine is taking over an alpha team aptos recorded at all you can check out that thread right here at alpha team aptos check them out support them they support us And now, Chris, it's all over. New York City is now a communist country.

New York's over in 48 hours. It'll be done. Bitcoin now has hit $100,000, which means global markets are officially in shambles. We are in a Great Depression. We have the fourth turning. Yes. Does I miss anything else? Is there anything else that happened that is a symbol of the end of the world that I might have missed?

I don't know. Probably the Great Rapture or something like that is coming. I think it's all tied into Bitcoin breaking 100,000 that's the downside, you know. Can I show you something? Go for it. No, while Mark was like going because I have ADD and I, you know, whatever. And I've heard, you know, I definitely have heard him tell me about his brother-in-law before. I brought up this chart of Bitcoin corrections that I had that I forgot and I just wanted to check in on it.

This is just this cycle since the lows, okay, since the 22 lows, 22%, 20%, 22%, 20%, 22%, 20%, 22%, 20%. 21%, 33%, 32%, right now we're 21.7%, and price is above $100,000. But it's the end of the world. I think it feels worse than a lot of these. Like, even when we went from 100 back to 74 here, I don't think there was this much anger and depression. I do remember this range from 31 to 25 that happened for, oh my God, from April to September. Our first experience of that long extended side.

Two corrections. That's why when I joked, like, we could range between 125 and 100. People are like, no, well, here's, you know, the five, six, seven months of that kind of thing after hitting a high. But, dude, why are people fooling out? There is actually a reason for this. You know, we've talked about it multiple times before, right? That it seems like, you know, all the major gurus on here have been calling tops every time, right? Like 20,000.

Every time we pause for a bit, they'd be like, oh, the tops in, right? And this has been one of the most, I think, emotionally difficult bull runs that Bitcoin has had. And I think a lot of that has to do with the, a lot has to do with FTX and what happened that last time. You know, people haven't really gotten over that. And so basically what we're doing here is climbing this wall of worry. I mean, we've been doing that for pretty much this entire dang bull cycle, which is weird. And what that means is psychologically, structurally psychologically, we're in a bear market right in our heads but financially we're in a bull market right things are

still going up and and this this happens at times with human beings right and you have this really tough time of it and at this point you know people are so worn out so just completely dragged down and let's face it you know everybody keeps come up here oh it's not you know it's it's it's the same cycle as last time whatever but it's really not um you know again we have those long periods of sideways which we haven't had before especially after institutions came in with the ETFs there in January of 24. And so you kind of get this thing where everybody's waiting for this big blowoff. He's waiting for this big run.

Everybody's thinking 2017. You and I were trading that 2017 together there, especially, you know, the last couple of quarters, especially that last quarter, man, it was crazy. But, you know, and everybody's still looking for that and they're not getting that. And so, you know, it's a lot of, you know, as I often say, the only real thing that you're fighting in the market, the only person, the only thing you're fighting is yourself.

You're not fighting Wall Street. You're not fighting crypto whales. You're not following anybody else. The only thing, the only person you are fighting is you in your own emotions, your own psychology, the way in which you're having to deal with this stuff. And that's, you know, again, that's the big part of trading that most people don't understand. They're all out there thinking, you everybody tells them, oh, it's a zero-sum game. It's this and that.

But at the end of the day, it really is just you're fighting yourself, right? So as I always say, trading is simple, right? We're just moving via liquidity. But it's not easy. And it's not easy because we're dealing with all that emotion and all that stuff that actually makes us humans. So I show you something else because there's people in the comments saying that nobody's freaking out. So I just want before we show Chris's charts, this is the S&P. Currently, I mean, actually from right now, if I pull this over, it'll be a little bit.

better. So we're down 2.17% off the highs, all-time high of, I don't know, five days ago. The fear, crypto, the fear and greed index for the stock market is extreme fear. People are literally losing their minds, 2% up all-time high. I don't think I've ever seen that. By the way, there's more fear by this index in the stock market than in crypto, which is at 23. Yeah. We had extreme fear for both the markets we track. Even though we continue to make new all-time highs. People are freaking out. Right.

And so it's just that, you know, again, it's that whole what we call climbing the wall of worry, right? And it hurts a lot of traders and people want to invest because they're too scared to get in. So you get a lot of dry powder sitting on the sidelines. I mean, we've got what, $7.40 almost $8 trillion. Just the money markets. Yeah. I mean, it's just sitting there. Why?

You got Warren Buffett, who's been out in cash for what, two years? now, something like that. And right now he's got this record stupid level of cash just sitting. I mean, just absolutely insane how much cash he's got just sitting there. But, you know, this is what happens. And so, you know, until something structurally breaks, you know, on the charts, you know, we just keep trading it with the bias to the ups up. And so, you know, when we're looking at Bitcoin here, yeah, we got a little bit further, right?

So what we talked about previously, we've been talking about is, okay, we had the move down here and we needed, you know, a quickish move back up above. here we got the thump and then we got the pullback and i was like listen we got to do this here in the couple of days or else you know we're probably coming down and uh as i told you know our students there if we were losing this our target was going to be this um this monthly s1 pivot here and which just so basically happens to align this is that 50 ema on the weekly that everybody's talking about sitting right there and so they kind of align the same area the other thing that aligns here is something i've been talking about for a while you might remember is

this red line here. Every time we did a major pullback this cycle, it's been right here to this kind of 44-ish area on the RSI. And here we are kind of sitting right above it there right now. So, you know, everything's kind of coming in, you know, we took the liquidity there. We kind of took some liquidity right here. You know, to me, this is a really good area to watch because you have this wick up here at about 97-921 on this chart and then you have the wick down to 98 330 so basically that same area right there and that's always something that you should watch when you have wicks coming up and coming down and hitting the same area that just a little quick tip there always watch that it's a strong area there but anyway we're right there

about that but we're hitting these levels where we always you know this cycle anyway has provided support. So again, nothing's breaking down on the macro right now at this point. Even as far as pivot go, we're still. Extreme fear. Yeah. Yeah. We're still above the yearly pivot here. Have you ever seen like not that that's an indicator I watch so often, but if you ever like just glanced at something like we're at an all time high, we should be, that should be literally extreme gear greed, euphoria if you think the top is it. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But again, It's very hard to have a top when there's extreme fear for the stock market. I'm talking about right there.

Right. But this is what, when they say climbing the wall of worry, this is what they're talking about, right? This exact situation where structurally, psychologically, we're basically in a bear market, you know, in our heads. But the financial itself, the markets are actually in a bull market, right? And that's that thing, right? Because everybody's always worried and it wears you out a lot worse.

That's why people are probably feeling like this is so much more difficult than it's ever been, even though it, you know, if you look at the chart, it really hasn't been. But for them, it has been emotionally. And not just here, but also, again, with stocks, right? I mean, everything keeps going up. The, that fucking Dow is almost at 50,000. I remember, I remember when it was below 1,000 back, you know, before 2000 there. It's absolutely insane.

But, and things will continue to go up here. Now, here's the thing. Because of that dichotomy, because of that, that twist between what people are feeling and what the market's actually doing, your point about euphoria is really important because if we don't get that euphoric feeling popping out with it, then when the market does roll over,

it can be really rough. It can be really tough because you don't have anybody to sell into because everybody's sitting on the sidelines, everybody's out, nobody's really buying. And that's the big kind of concern with it as we continue higher. But right now, structurally, you know, again, I think we're still looking all right here.

Nothing's broken down yet. For me, personally, I mean, I can see us potentially taking another push down. But right now, we've got a real good. Look at those tweezers. If we can hold like this and rise, look at candle. At support. Beautiful. Not even just tweezer bottoms.

It's at support, which is huge. It's huge, right? These are bottoms at support with a nice hammer. Like, I can zoom in on mine just to give the idea. I mean, that is day and over. We got, you know, nine hours. and 13 more minutes anything can happen i don't want to like go fully unlet and celebrate the one yard line and fumble but yeah i mean yeah i mean you know you should at least be looking for possibly

to get up here around 106 or so um i think we probably there's a good chance we could do that even today um but here's the thing big picture for everybody watching here's the thing if this holds where we're at or even if we dip a slightly lower there and we break out with a daily candle impulsive breakout and close above this 113, 150 area, that's going to signal the low is most likely in and we're going to new all-time highs. Now, based on this one-two count here, as I've adjusted it, I've got a wave three up here at around 180,000. So we get 180,000, pull back to around 150,000, and then rally up to right around 200,000. And those are just generally projected targets that we use every time with Elliott Wave, it can over-extend. You can get higher movements

or shorter pullbacks. But generally speaking, that's what we'd be looking at. And for me, personally, I like those numbers. You know, the fact that we break through 150, pull back to 150, and then hit 200. These are psychological strong levels that you would normally look for as support and resistance and whatnot. So I like the setup here. I'll be honest with you. So we'll see what happens. You know, again, it's like everything else. that I talk about, you know, there's levels you want to see broken out. So for me, you know, if you look, if this is going to be correct here, this is three waves down. So really, just a breakout above this swing high here around 111, 120, 111,200 or so.

That should indicate that the low is. If my count's correct, that would indicate that the low is in and break out a little bit before you're 113, 150. You know, if you're doing Elliott Wave, you've got to break out above the wave X here, which is the all-time high, unfortunately, in this case. at 126 um but those are the levels i would be watching there um but you know again if you're if you're sitting here and you're worried you're whatever first of all understand we're at a great place uh through all the support levels i talked about and everything we're looking here so if we can just impulsive breakout and close above the 113 150 we should be good to go overall you know i mean we're get pullbacks along the way but overall we should be breaking out there and

i'm looking up toward 180 is the next kind of target on that i mean listen i was never like the biggest guy, but I think it gives you some at least guidance about where mean reversion will happen. It's been tested three times on the weekly 50s since breaking above in 23. I mean, and I kept saying even yesterday before it was happening, I was like, we're good. I want to see it tested and I want the week to close above it with a big wick below. Not as big of a wick as I was hoping for yet, but sitting right on it today after the flush with a wick below. So listen, if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

If we start closing a bunch of candles below that, if that's your thing, I get it. like you can't know something in support unless you test it. So I don't know why people freak out until you have proof that it's broken. Well, you know, it's because, you know, for a lot of people, you know, people take offense when I say this, but the reality of it is most retail market participants don't know what they're doing. And so they get in and they hope that it's going to go. Maybe they listen to somebody online and they hope.

Maybe even listen to me, right, had no idea how to apply. It's the biggest thing we have is people don't know how to open. the information that they can get online, right? So even if the information is correct, if you don't really understand proper risk management, how to apply that and what's going on, you can still mess it up, right? But people buy in. And if price doesn't go up and continue to go up, you know, because you don't really know what you're doing, it's very traumatic emotionally. Because every time it pulls back, you're like, oh my God, should I take my profit or should I let it run? Right. And that's that big thing. And if they've been in a few times,

times. Maybe they've taken their profit a little early because they got scared and it continued going up where they thought it would. And so then that plays back in their head as well. And so, you know, again, it comes down to the whole idea that the thing that you're fighting in the markets is yourself. I mean, that's what it is. So I think, you know, right now we're looking good. We just need to follow through. We'll see if we can get them. Ethereum, everybody's freaking out about Ethereum, right? But again, same idea. We've got a, you know, a WXY here, a double zigzag correction. Again, support at the S-1 pivot, monthly S-1 pivot. We kind of swept all this, you know, right here and here, all this liquidity getting into this. So again, we want

to see it hold here. Based on the structure here, we just have to get above this triangle resistance of wave X here at about 3916 to indicate the low is in and we're going to break out higher. But like Bitcoin, if you can get a daily candle impulsive breakout and close above this 4,09 area, that should indicate that you're good to go for a new all-time high with Ethereum here. Now, the big thing on Ethereum and, you know, in Bitcoin itself is if you look at this move down, so you've got your initial volume on that October 10th drop there, right? But coming from there, volume just continues to stay off, continues to drop off. You're not getting like, as this is coming down, you're not getting volume expansion like you see.

see right here the market's joining in right here so i have that volume expansion you just got a spike at the bottom which is usually capitulation so you get the one spike yeah and enlarged lower wick with that and in this case it's happening right on support i mean you know again when these things happen by themselves it's a good enough thing usually uh but when it happens on support it makes it that much more likely now again there are no guarantees in trading blah blah blah you know how this goes right um but what you're doing as a trader is you're saying, okay, what are the probabilities like when certain things happen? And the more of those probabilities you can get together at the same point,

then the more likely you are to be correct. And that's how you should be trading. And of course, with the proper risk management set in there. But Ethereum looking good here, I think, at the moment. So again, we just need to see follow through. Same thing with Bitcoin. Real quick, here's some charts. Last week, I talked about one of the charts I had was ZK here.

I said, go along. It never goes down. did absolutely great here rallied up i think we're at five waves are just about five waves it's popped up a little bit more here uh since i did this this morning we're right around the r1 pivot uh on the uh the weekly r1 pivot we've got one two three four it looks like five waves so i'm looking i'm watching for a rejection around here you can see it hit our two targets uh and then went up higher here um but if we can get a rejection around here i'm looking for a pullback to around this uh about five cents to five and a half cents to five and a half cent

area. And I'm looking for that to be in three waves to come on down here. And if we can get that and start reversing, that should get us, you know, again, with this being a one and a two to a 50% pullback here, three heading out. But it depends. You know, we could still push up a little bit higher here, which would pull this closer toward that pivot. But ultimately, the idea is we get a pullback down toward this pivot area. And then that sets us up for the next move up. So that's what I'm watching for now. This was great trade worked out well. The other two didn't break out, you know, I said we were looking for it to go long. This one did, though.

And like I said, really great return on there. So I think there's more work here once we can get this pullback. Other than that, I've got whiff here. Remember when everything was with back? I love that you're looking at meme coins like in the in the depths. So good. Well, you know, we'll see, right? We'll see.

And this looks like we've got five waves up here. Looks like we've got, you know, three waves back down. It looks like a flat correction. And then we've got this move up. And when I look at this, this appears to be a triangle. So, you know, an A, a B. And then we get our C down here. Our initial support was right here at this same line that I drew way back in the day.

And then this one right here, this support level here, working to support here. So if we were to continue to break down, you know, that would end up invalidating the count because I think we'd get down here to the S1 pivot in almost about 28. and a half cents. And I'd still look, again, like we were talking about the other ones, I'd look for a rally up, impulsive breakout and close above the daily, I'm sorry, daily, monthly pivots here on the daily time frame to indicate that that low is in and we're going up. But right now, the way it sits, if we can rally from here, and again, daily candle impulsive breakout and close above this 55 cent level, we should be good to go locally with this being a

one and a two. That gives us a minimum expected wave three target at just about 85 cents, Wave 5, just about 96 cents on that. I know we got to go, but there's a bunch of people asking about Solana. Well, you can bring up whatever you got too, but I don't know if you have a Salana chart because I see a whole lot of requests for it. And hey, we're men of the people. Yeah, yeah, I can pull up a Salana chart here real quick. This is Suey.

Again, same idea. Looks like we've probably got five up and then kind of a flat correction here. One, two, three, four, and five. If we continue to break down, we should, what it'll probably do is print a spring on this large range here targeting this one dollar 67 cent area maybe wicking down a bit further but right now uh we're looking pretty decent again daily candle impulsive break out and close above 269 would signal that that low is likely in and we're going to break out higher here um so you know everything kind of looking the same way at the moment

and let me see we got on salana here let me pull up come on there we go there we go um do it they all look the same yeah yeah exactly you know um so with salonna here i've got this as a leading diagonal and then this is a pullback here um so i think being an a b and then oh you know one two three four is a triangle five and so if that counts correct we should definitely come back up here because a triangle uh When you do it per Elliott wave rules, it is the last consolidation before the last push in the direction you're going. So, you know, directions down. The last one should get up there.

Almost tweezer bottoms here. You know, again, volume looking good down there toward that low. 50% pullback. S1 pivot here, monthly S1 pivot. So once again, you know, impulsive daily candle breakout and close above one, basically 198 here should indicate that the low is in. uh real quick i'll get you guys a target here actually let me see with that being a one and a two likely that would give us a minimum expect way three target about four hundred dollars and wave five about four sixty one again these are general targets that we look at uh they can over extend

but right now i mean i don't think too many people complain and you get into two hundred and goes to 400 right yeah so yeah basically you know everything's kind of looking the same uh you know we're on those monthly s1 pivot areas for the most part um so if that pullback holds and we're breaking out through those monthly pivots uh there's little reason to think that we should be hitting lower there are no guarantees of course but generally speaking the way that price works with pivots um as you get that you know if you coming in sideways between the pivot and the r1 or the other S1, you drop the S1. Find support there. If you then break out above the pivot, it runs up. Usually R4 or R5 pivot on that that you're looking at least. So, you know, and it aligns with

counts. But, you know, again, we can't guarantee that anything's going to happen. We're looking to saying, okay, based on structure, this is what we're looking at. We've got alignment with a few different ways, whether you're looking at Wyckoff and Elliott Wave and price action and volume and pivots and so you've got a confluence of factors you know even mAs you know all happening at that same area which gives it a greater likelihood of being a low but you still need the follow through to prove it right so yeah that's that's where we're kind of sitting all right man we made it all the way to 10 o'clock so we got to go everybody give tx west capital a follow of course check out everything he's got to run man thank you very much see you guys soon later

Let's go.