Bitcoin Whales Dump $45B While The Fed Pumps In $50B To Save Markets!
00:00Bitcoin whales continue to dump their Bitcoin 400,000 coins last month and another $45 billion worthon this correction.Obviously, as we discussed on Macro Monday, we also have the Fed injecting a ton of liquidity,at least through the reverse repo, $50 billion one day, over $20 billion.Another, there's a lot going on under the service, leading many to think that we are in thedepths of a bare market.It's all over.I think we're so back.
00:28But I'm going to discuss all that with one of my all-time favorites, Mr. Mark Yusko.Let's go.Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the depths of hell.We are in a bare market.Bitcoin had the audacity to temporarily drop below a hundred.hundred thousand dollars, unimaginable levels of lows. I can't believe it could possibly gothat low mark. Of course, I'm being sarcastic. I'm old enough to remember earlier this yearwhen I was euphoric when Bitcoin broke above $100,000. $100,000. Yeah. I mean,
01:18let's zoom out a little bit, you know, even just a little bit. I mean, a year ago, right,one year ago, we were 56% lower, right? Now, people say, oh, but, but if you fast forward,you know, a month, which is true, you fast forward a month, you know, we're coming up on theperiod where from December, you know, mid-teens last year, we're flat. Like, okay. But to your point,It's still a $100,000 per coin.And we're having a interesting period here in that we run a venture fund,Morgan Creek Digital.And our first fund we invested in 2018.
02:13And long story short, 80% that goes into equity, 20% goes into digital assets.We have a meaningful amount of a Bitcoin in there.and you know we have to return the capital to shareholders not our money right um and you knowmost of us who are invested in it are going to take it in kind but there are some that they can'tdo that for for uh institutional reasons so now for the first time ever will we will sell somethat we haven't done anything this moment um but that is no reflection on price but my the point oftelling the story. Their cost bases, $5,000, which is not that long ago. I mean, we're talkingseven, eight-ish years, you know, years. It's not that long ago. If SBF had been running your
03:07fund, he would not be returning that money to investors just for the record. Just for the record.And hey, there's one quick thing. You know, you opened it up talking about the whales. It is interesting.You know, we were on kismet that, you know, the prep.So I'll see if I can do it.But I did wear the Bitcoin Whale sock game today.Wow.Which is kind of funny.I mean, I did not plan that we would be talking about the whales.
03:36But I did wear it today.But I mean, tis the season to be talking about the whales because that has been the story, right?That's been the offsetting supply that has.I guess, sold into all of this institutional demand that we see there, all the inflows from theETFs.I mean, it's indisputable fact at this point.These guys are selling.Not all of them, but they have a lot more coins than people seem to imagine when these
04:02guys can just send 10,000 coins here, 50,000 coins there, 30,000.I guess we can debate endlessly why they would be doing that.I think there's a lot of obvious reasons, but it never sees it to amaze me just how muchmoney these guys have in Bayquois? Well, it's, I mean, for sure, again, because if you, if your costbasis is pennies or fractions of a penny in some cases, you know, the sign right behind me,right, is not the real one. It's, it's a, you know, Christian made it for me. So it's, it's kind ofa semi-original, but it's not the original one from the Yellen conference. And I kind of wantedthe original and I asked him if he'd sell it to me. He's like, no, I think I'm going to put it in a museum.
04:49Like, it will be in a museum, my museum. And I would share it with people. Anyway, so he decided toput it on auction last year. And, you know, I decided, okay, I'll bid for it. But I knew this wouldhappen. There are lots of people, like lots of people who have way lower cost basis than I do.Yeah, like 10 cents. Well, this guy was single digit pennies. And, you know,And it's a funny story, right? He was sitting at Pubkey. And the rumor is. Now, I don't know if this is true or if it's an embellishment. Someone said, hey, is this, is this some like random homeless guy off the street? Because he, he looked a little scragy and he, you know, he wasn't dressed in a suit and had, you know, kind of rough beard. And then he bid way more than anybody else. And it was not real money. And it's not that it's not that it's not real money.It's, to him, the cost basis is zero.So he can buy something he wants, which is kind of cool.Infinitely.
05:51And so these guys obviously would sell for that reason.It's just too much money.They got 10, 15 years older.They had families.They want a yacht instead of driving a corolla from 85.Like, it's going to the government and Black Rock.They've seen Black Rock and the government come in and start, you know,maybe violating some of their libertarian ideals.
06:11And they're like, eff it.And the funny thing is,is that some of these guys could be selling $10 billion worth of it and still have $90 billion more.Oh, no, no, exactly.Exactly.The one thing that bothers me, we talked a little bit about this before we went on air,the relatively small amount that can cause meaningful moves in price is still bugging me.And this is one of my personal pet peeves about market cap generally.
06:42like you have all these, you know, I'll call the alt coins, right, that claim they have thesebig market caps. And like, you're taking the last like 10 tokens traded at some price,multiplying that by billions of tokens and getting a market cap. If the person who formed thattoken were to sell one, not like five or 10, one, like if Elon sold one doge coin, what happens tothe price of Dogecoin. It goes down a lot. But Bitcoin shouldn't, in my mind, be quite like thatbecause, yes, we do the same silly thing. We create the market cap by saying, oh, if Scott and Markexchange a Bitcoin for $102,946, and there are, you know, 18 million-ish Bitcoin, then the marketcap is, you know, 2.1 trillion. Okay. But we sold one Bitcoin. You can't price a whole market
07:44based on one transaction, but that's the way we do it in all assets. Yeah, I mean, if theSatochia wallet started moving coins around, but I don't think that's going to happen. It might,shake the trust and might move different than its market cap would imply, for example.Yeah, no, exactly. And look, I think the other thing is, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm,on record that we are in crypto winner. Now, I didn't say exactly the date, but in February,I said that, look, the four-year cycle's not dead. Humans are going to human. And we will,we humans, will push the price above fair value. I mean, you know Tim Peterson. Yeah, we've talkedabout this a lot. Where do you see fair value now? Just as kind of table set information. I talked to Tim,
08:35I talked to Tim for a long time on Friday. I had a long car ride. We just we just chatted.91.92K is fair value. And we say, you can't determine it. I'm like, he's been doing it foreight years. And it's pretty damn accurate. And the idea of Metcalf's law applying to networks andBitcoin is clearly a network and we can gather all of the inputs into that network and we cancalculate a number. And if that number tends to correlate to the price over a long periodof time, one might say that the model has some value. So, and what's crazy to me, you know,you and I have been doing these kind of things for a long time. So back in 2017,the fair value was 10. And we hit 10 within, actually, this is crazy, within four days
09:26of the model. The model said November 6th, it hit November 10th.And a month later, we were 20.Well, if you're two times fair value, what is likely to happen?Now, interestingly, it happened precisely on the day.And you know, you knew I would go down the sinister path here, but precisely December 18th to the day that the CME released futures contracts.And that goes to about six months earlier when Leo Melamed, the chairman of the CME,said, look, we will tame Bitcoin. That's a weird word. That's a, that's a, that's a,that's a confrontational word. So what does that mean? Well, that means that if I can, in the old
10:17days, if I wanted to sell you a Bitcoin, I actually had to have a Bitcoin. Just like if in the old daysof oil, if I wanted to sell you a barrel of oil, I had to have ownership of said oil. But in thefutures market. No, no, no, no, no. I can create something out of thin air in paper and I can justexecute a sale. So the price collapsed from, you know, 20 to 10 to 6. And I, this is the one thing Iam nervous about Scott. And I don't think it's going to happen, but I am nervous about it.If you remember November 6th back in 2018, we were sitting at 6K, and everybody's like,okay, that's it, the bottom.Oh, man, that 6K floor.
11:05And holy crap.I mean, it was 24 hours, 24 hours.It might have been 36 hours.It was in the 3s.But it was super fast.And we were at 3,400.And everybody's like, that can't happen.just did. And so then, okay, we start going back up. So then we get to the 21 cycle and we get to,
11:31you know, fair value had crept up to about 32, 33K. And we went all the way to 69. And again, to the dayNovember 21st or something like that, CME releases more futures, more weapons of mass destruction.and we top at 69 and go all the way down to 15.And now at 15, if fair value is 40, what happens?Investors start to accumulate.But then we go back.So now here we are.And what's interesting is every halving, we add a zero, meaning we 10x the market
12:12cap.And that's kind of the parabolic, you know, Metcalf's law kind of model is we went from10 to 100, 100 to 1,000, 1,000 to 10,000, 10,000, this time 100,000, which means the nexthaving, we go to a million, and it's like, that can never happen. I'm like, no, it can. And it actuallywill. But, but, but I don't know, it's not going to be a straight line. So my point is,in February, I said, look, contrary to popular belief, four year cycle is not dead. And we willenter fourth quarter and we will have a peak, a speculative blowoff peak, just like the lastones. And depending on how high we get above fair value, we'll have, you know, that type of
12:57correction. I didn't think we'd get as high as 2x, right? We were 2x and 17, 2x and 21. I thought thistime we'd hit 150, 170, which would have been, you know, 50 to 70% above fair value. A fair valuewas ticking around 100. Long story short. I also, and I didn't get too specific on this,but I did change my view a couple weeks ago. And I saw the tweet from the guy from two years agowho said October 6th was going to be the peak. And there's a reason for that is it's not a four-yearcycle. It's a number of blocks cycle. And the number of blocks is one month less. And the number of blocks isone month less than four years. So December 18th, then November 21st, October 6th was the day.You think the top is in? You think the top is in? No, so I, I'm not saying it is, but what I'm saying
13:56is it's possible, right? Sure. The difference, the difference is, but Mark, things have changed.There's more institutional demand. Yes, there is. Mark, things have changed. The E.T.Yes. Yep. But what hasn't changed is human nature to lever up. You said a million dollar idea.Don't get liquidated. Right. I know. It's crazy. Crazy. It might be a million dollar idea just for oneperson. And it's, but here it's it's a crazy, crazy phenomenon. I shouldn't rat out my familymember. I won't say which one, but I shouldn't rat him out. The brother. But I've told the story before.I know. In the last cycle, he calls him and said, they stole my Bitcoin.I'm like, what are you talking about?
14:43Well, I was on BitFinex. I'm like, stop. No. No one stole your Bitcoin. Now, some might arguethat that is their business model, lure people in with the promise of riches. And then when theycan't make the margin call, you confiscate their Bitcoin. So maybe you could call that theft.But the reality is you chose to lever up your Bitcoin 50 to 1. You don't lever an 80-val assetat 50 to one unless you plan on being less rich.Yeah, I don't personally, I think,I think it's gonna just be boring between 100 and 125.I have no idea, but that's what, at 126,
15:22I was like, we'll probably range down to 100,and here we are and people are in charge.Yeah, and that point, Scott is important in that if 126was kind of all the juice we had in terms of the over lever,because there's less leverage in the system and so much spoofing going on.I mean, the amount of spoofing going on by J.P. Morgan, I shouldn't name names, but by the big dogs, right?We can name names, but we know this is happening, right? They do it. See, commodities are an interesting thing. There's a reason, I believe, that Bitcoin was called a commodity, not a security. And everybody's like, oh, no,that's great. We didn't want to be a security. Be careful what you ask for. I believe it was
16:13intentional to call it a commodity so that Leo Melamede and his buddies and the big dogs could usepaper to manipulate the price. And so that little thing that everybody thinks was an afterthought,oh, they didn't, they couldn't figure out what it was. So they just called it a commodity. No, no, no.it was intentional to make it a commodity because commodities can be controlled.And so, but my point is if fair value is 91 and let's say it's somewhere between 91 and100 because you don't have a perfect accuracy.And we only got to 26, 126, a 26% kind of premium to fair value doesn't need an 84% correction or a 75% correction.That's right.
17:03So maybe we're just becoming more.boring yeah yeah and so you know we just got to 99 maybe that's just one of those close enoughthings yeah and i look i i i am worried you know a little bit a little bit and i talk for with tim a lotabout this that that there is this kind of of super cleansing that has to happen in in these in theseperiods where you basically got to wipe out all of the leverage.Have you looked at all coins in the $19.2 billion leverage, you know, unwind on financeand friends a few weeks ago?We've had some pretty brutal times.
17:45Like, it's easy to look at Bitcoin and say it's pretty good, you know, 100K.I'm happy.But meanwhile, like, your all coins are in the dumpster for a lot of people.Oh, no, no.Look, I promised you I wouldn't pick on the XRP this morning.Did you see this? Wait?Yeah.Justin, Ripple raises $500 million at a $40 billion valuation.
18:09Did you see that?No, I did not.Wow.I see it now.It was like Citadel Securities and I mean some huge names, obviously, in this round here.Just happened while we were talking, I saw it.No, I mean, now again, Ripple is not XRP, but, but Bravo to Brad.I can only give them golf clap on that.
18:33I mean, that, I mean, Citadel Securities are real people.I mean, they are super real people.I assume Paradigms probably in there, too.They tend to do a lot of stuff together.I don't, I don't really understand.By Fortress and Citadel Securities.I don't know who else is in there, but probably Paradox.I'm sure.
18:53Yeah.Bravo.I mean, that's a stunning development in my mind.really good, actually really good for me now that I think about it, because I invested withDan Moorhead, who was one of the earliest investors in Pantera. So the value of our Panterainvestment probably just went up by a lot, actually. Yeah, you were starting by saying you weren'tgoing to pick on anyone. Then I interrupted you. Maybe you were going to. I don't think weknow. But I think we have a fair value problem across the crypto ecosystem is maybe where you
19:25were going. Yeah. Because you can watch all coins literally go to like zero and back in a day.This is non-specific tax RP, like all of it, right? So like what's the value of any of these?If the networks are like maybe. If you're a meme coin, you have to understand. Like when, you know,when, you know, Janet Yellen or, you know, Christine Lagarde, you know, the evil women ofthe world, when they say, you know, these things have no fair value, no, no intrinsic. You know,intrinsic value. Like, you mean different from the euro or the dollar, which has no intrinsic value?I can't, I can't exchange a dollar for anything. I don't get gold. I don't get silver. I don't get,I don't get tax receipts. I don't get war reparations. I don't get anything. It's just belief in
20:11custom. So, but belief in custom is, is different in the sense of if there's belief and custom broadly,then an asset can be used as a medium exchange or restore value. A meme coin,monetization of attention. I mean, for a moment, it can, it can go to crazy numbers. But unless yousell it and convert it into something where belief in customs, like, you can't go anywhere andbuy anything with Dogecoin or, you know, fart coin or, but if, if, if you sell it toI remember when you could buy Maverick, I remember when you could buy Dallas Maverick's gear withJoe's coin apparently. Ah, okay. All right. I stand corrected. I stand corrected for five minutes,maybe. Go ahead. Sorry. No, no. And look, if I were Mark Cuban, I would try to create something,
21:05you know, but. A moment in time that was. Those were all top signals, by the way.Of course they were. Because, look, I, there are thousands and thousands of tokens,because creating a token is, is not that challenging. I mean, I, you know, it's not something Ievery day, but there are people who can do it in, you know, five seconds. So that and then promotingit and getting people to believe in it is a whole other thing. And I'd say the XRP army or the,you know, Cardano army. I mean, these are rabid believers. And, you know, again, if you do the marketcap, they look like very big assets. But I will contend that if anyone tried tosell any amount of that asset, the market cap would vaporize.
21:59I think we're going to eventually prove all of those theories right with most of thesetokens, obviously. And there's something I know that you think is sinister and like to talkabout. So I actually happen to randomly have three stories about CBDCs today.Awesome.Bond will settle with wholesale CBDC. Here comes Hong Kong.CBDC with stable coin mechanics. Indonesia's digital rupea to be backed by governmentbonds, and of course, Christine Lagarde.Digital EurocbVC is a symbol of trust in our common destiny of eating, bugs, and liking
22:33it.She didn't say, yeah, look, I mean, there is not a human, well, actually, there's one other.She's the second worst face of evil on the planet.Augustine Carstons or whatever's name is, is the worst.But Christine has always been the first.face of evil. I mean, she's, she's been doing bad stuff for a long time. And it's not shocking at allthat people are moving to governments are embracing CBDCs. Why? Well, and I get full credit toPippa Malmgren. So Pippa's dad was, you know, Department of State guy for years,
23:19passed away, rest in peace. But Pippa is, has been talking about.talked about this for a while in that when a government gets overly indebted, right? They basicallyhave four choices. We can pay off the debt. Well, they can't do that, right? Because they just don'thave enough wealth or capital to do it. So then you can restructure the debt. Well, no one will takethe other side, right? If I own a treasury, you can't say I'll give you 60 cents on the dollarbecause I expect a dollar. You can default, but then you get kicked out of power, right?You know, a.k.a. Argentina or Venezuela or whatever. So that's bad. Politicians don't like todefault. So what do they do? They devalue. Well, devaluation is why currencies all go to zero,
24:09which is why Bitcoin goes up. Because Bitcoin doesn't change. One Bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin,like one ounce of gold is one ounce of gold. What changes the number of dollars or rupea or eurosthat you need to acquire said one.But the real problem here is back in the 1830s, the U.K., right, which was the, remember,the U.K. was the center of the universe, world reserve currency, most powerful nation in theworld, son never said in the British Empire.They owned pretty much everything and everyone, not so nice, actually.but they got super indebted, you know, they financed a bunch of foreign wars that they couldn't cover.
24:55And back then, the way they kept records, this is crazy, is using pieces of wood called tally sticks.Like, I would lend you money and I would make a notch on my stick and I'd make a notch on your stick.And I gave you, wait for it, the short end of the stick.Yeah, which is where that phrase comes from, right?You got the short end of the stick.So you were the debtor.Because remember, if you were a debtor in ancient times, you were a bad person.Like you could go to debtor's prison.
25:33And it wasn't like today where, oh, I have a big credit line.I'm a big man or a big woman.You know, I got this big credit card, but it's debt.How much would you use your little plastic thing called a debt card instead of a credit card?I don't know, probably less.But long story is I had the long end of stick, you had the short end of the stick, and if I were a big financier, I'd have a bunch of these tally sticks, right?Well, the government said, you know what? We're going to get rid of all that. We owe you guys a bunch of money, but we're not going to pay it back. So we're going to collect all the tally sticks and we're going to burn them. And we're just going to start over. We're going to adopt dual entry accounting, you know, Medici kind of dual entry, green eye shade.ledger pads. And the funny part of the story is they burned parliament down while they were
26:23burning the tally sticks because the furnace caught on fire. But they did. They reset.Now, who won who lost? Well, obviously the government won because they stayed in power andthey didn't have to pay back any of their debts. But they had to adopt a new monetary system.So let's think about this. Government's all around the world. Too much in debt.never pay it back. We owe $38 trillion. No way we're going to pay it back. So what if you createdthis new accounting system, this new monetary system, and you flush the old system? Okay,that's totally logical. So this is our tally stick moment. Oh, but wait, it's better.Like in the green eye shade, you know, two to leisure system, you actually need a,
27:17bank, okay, the Medici's, to be the referee, right? Because you write down a number. I write down anumber. I could change my number. But the bank, you know, is the arbiter and got accountants and auditorsand seven trillion dollars of slippage, which everybody loves. Well, now we got this programmablething. Well, wait a second. Like if you listen to Augustin-Carsden, it's like, well, of course,we should determine when and if you can actually use your money. Like,You get paid, and the CBDC can say, well, unless you spend your money by Friday, it goes away.And hey, you know what? Target just made a little contribution to the party.So your money doesn't work at Walmart anymore.
28:04So, I mean, that could never happen.Bullshit.All of that can happen.And worse, way, way worse.Because now we got digital ID.Oh, you want to go on vacation in the UK?I'm sorry.you said something bad about the prime minister. You can't come in. I mean, it is a dystopian nightmare.
28:24And if you want to get me really started, let's talk about the digital gulogs that are being builtby Sam Altman and friends under the guise of AI. No, it is, it is not intelligence in any way,shape, or form. It is completely artificial. But more importantly, it ain't about anything other than,control, manipulation, and slavery.Like, let's think about this.You go into the open AI product now,and it won't give you health advice.It won't give you financial advice.
29:03It won't give you legal advice.Who made that decision?Oh.I was going to give us health advice.I was giving us all health advice until, like, last week.No, that's what I'm saying.But here's the thing.they, so someone, I mean, the idea of the internet is all of mankind's information is open and
29:21available to anyone who wants it. The name open AI implies, if you ask me, you know, I'm not a linguist,but it implies that this is an open system, not a closed system that, look, if I ask Google aquestion. I know that the answer is mostly paid for. Like, they're giving me back ads and stuff.And like, if I ask for, you know, what's the best stroller for my grandkids? I actually don't getconsumer reports anymore or strollers.com. I get someone trying to sell me a stroller. So I gethow that model works. And I can ignore it and I can kind of search through and find the place where Icould find about strollers. But in this new world, this digital gulag, they're like, I don't likethe fact that you asked a question. You're not supposed to be talking about strollers. And let's make
30:22it real. Okay. Forget strollers. How do you make a bomb? Okay. Maybe it's a science project for mykid, but you can't say that. And, and now the AI will say, well, that information is notavailable to you. Oh, and by the way, we've notified the proper authorities and they'll be atyour, you know, home to pick you up. Like, but it's a science project. I mean, and, and I get it thatthere are delicate things and there are things, but I'm probably in trouble for even using theword on, on the internet. They're listening. They're listening. They're listening. They'reWell, actually, to that point, there was a time here in Chapel Hill during the whole, you know, a 9-11 stuff, this student rented a van and drove into the main square of the campus.And it was a Middle Eastern student.
31:18And so someone, you know, emailed me and said, hey, what's this jihad stuff going on?And I said, dude, do not use that word in my email because, yeah, the g-men are listening.in. Well, the CBDC people are definitely coming for parts of the world. I think that's very, very clear. There's a billion more things I want to talk about, but we've reached our time. Mark, you know, that is always the way it goes with you and me, Scott. Part of it, as my wife says, Mark, you talk too much. And I like, yeah, I do. I like to talk. But get that for my wife, too. What are you going to do? Well, thank you to, I guess if you're Marky, Mark, I'm the funky bunch.absolutely and and give and give your better 90% of me um i will you know i i like uh yeah yeahyou're good you know you have great presence on the end but you know emmy emmy ups the gameevery now and then and and does a good job so it's it's not easy being me sometimes i gotta saysame for you buddy thank you so much mark we'll see you very very soon all right see you skeeterall right guys obviously got uh christopher inks coming on next to discuss
32:27us how it's all over again because that's what we're talking about but first obviously since itis wednesday and we've got a year of doing this check out all the incredible things that aptos didin october major partnerships record breaking performance milestones excited ecosystem developmentsand events from token 2049 to aptos experience myc global trading engine is taking overan alpha team aptos recorded at all you can check out that thread right here at alpha team aptoscheck them out support them they support usAnd now, Chris, it's all over.New York City is now a communist country.
33:03New York's over in 48 hours.It'll be done.Bitcoin now has hit $100,000, which means global markets are officially in shambles.We are in a Great Depression.We have the fourth turning.Yes.Does I miss anything else?Is there anything else that happened that is a symbol of the end of the world that I might have missed?
33:23I don't know.Probably the Great Rapture or something like that is coming.I think it's all tied into Bitcoin breaking 100,000 that's the downside, you know.Can I show you something?Go for it.No, while Mark was like going because I have ADD and I, you know, whatever.And I've heard, you know, I definitely have heard him tell me about his brother-in-law before.I brought up this chart of Bitcoin corrections that I had that I forgot and I just wanted to check in on it.
33:47This is just this cycle since the lows, okay, since the 22 lows, 22%, 20%, 22%, 20%, 22%, 20%, 22%, 20%.21%, 33%, 32%, right now we're 21.7%, and price is above $100,000.But it's the end of the world.I think it feels worse than a lot of these.Like, even when we went from 100 back to 74 here, I don't think there was this much angerand depression.I do remember this range from 31 to 25 that happened for, oh my God, from April to September.Our first experience of that long extended side.
34:23Two corrections.That's why when I joked, like, we could range between 125 and 100.People are like, no, well, here's, you know, the five, six, seven months of that kind of thing after hitting a high.But, dude, why are people fooling out?There is actually a reason for this.You know, we've talked about it multiple times before, right?That it seems like, you know, all the major gurus on here have been calling tops every time, right?Like 20,000.
34:47Every time we pause for a bit, they'd be like, oh, the tops in, right?And this has been one of the most, I think, emotionally difficult bull runs that Bitcoin has had.And I think a lot of that has to do with the, a lot has to do with FTX and what happened that last time.You know, people haven't really gotten over that.And so basically what we're doing here is climbing this wall of worry.I mean, we've been doing that for pretty much this entire dang bull cycle, which is weird.And what that means is psychologically, structurally psychologically,we're in a bear market right in our heads but financially we're in a bull market right things are
35:27still going up and and this this happens at times with human beings right and you have thisreally tough time of it and at this point you know people are so worn out so just completelydragged down and let's face it you know everybody keeps come up here oh it's not you know it'sit's it's the same cycle as last time whatever but it's really not um you know again we havethose long periods of sideways which we haven't had before especially afterinstitutions came in with the ETFs there in January of 24.And so you kind of get this thing where everybody's waiting for this big blowoff.He's waiting for this big run.
36:02Everybody's thinking 2017.You and I were trading that 2017 together there, especially, you know, the last couple of quarters,especially that last quarter, man, it was crazy.But, you know, and everybody's still looking for that and they're not getting that.And so, you know, it's a lot of, you know, as I often say,the only real thing that you're fighting in the market,the only person,the only thing you're fighting is yourself.
36:27You're not fighting Wall Street.You're not fighting crypto whales.You're not following anybody else.The only thing, the only person you are fighting is you in your own emotions,your own psychology, the way in which you're having to deal with this stuff.And that's, you know, again, that's the big part of trading that most people don't understand.They're all out there thinking, you everybody tells them, oh, it's a zero-sum game.It's this and that.
36:49But at the end of the day, it really is just you're fighting yourself, right?So as I always say, trading is simple, right?We're just moving via liquidity.But it's not easy.And it's not easy because we're dealing with all that emotion and all that stuff that actually makes us humans.So I show you something else because there's people in the comments saying that nobody's freaking out.So I just want before we show Chris's charts, this is the S&P.Currently, I mean, actually from right now, if I pull this over, it'll be a little bit.
37:19better. So we're down 2.17% off the highs, all-time high of, I don't know, five days ago.The fear, crypto, the fear and greed index for the stock market is extreme fear.People are literally losing their minds, 2% up all-time high. I don't think I've ever seenthat. By the way, there's more fear by this index in the stock market than in crypto,which is at 23. Yeah. We had extreme fear for both the markets we track.Even though we continue to make new all-time highs.People are freaking out.Right.
37:56And so it's just that, you know, again, it's that whole what we call climbing the wall of worry, right?And it hurts a lot of traders and people want to invest because they're too scared to get in.So you get a lot of dry powder sitting on the sidelines.I mean, we've got what, $7.40 almost $8 trillion.Just the money markets.Yeah.I mean, it's just sitting there.Why?
38:15You got Warren Buffett, who's been out in cash for what, two years?now, something like that.And right now he's got this record stupid level of cash just sitting.I mean, just absolutely insane how much cash he's got just sitting there.But, you know, this is what happens.And so, you know, until something structurally breaks, you know, on the charts,you know, we just keep trading it with the bias to the ups up.And so, you know, when we're looking at Bitcoin here, yeah, we got a little bit further, right?
38:43So what we talked about previously, we've been talking about is, okay, we had the movedown here and we needed, you know, a quickish move back up above.here we got the thump and then we got the pullback and i was like listen we got to do this herein the couple of days or else you know we're probably coming down and uh as i told you know ourstudents there if we were losing this our target was going to be this um this monthly s1 pivothere and which just so basically happens to align this is that 50 ema on the weekly thateverybody's talking about sitting right there and so they kind of align the same area the otherthing that aligns here is something i've been talking about for a while you might remember is
39:18this red line here. Every time we did a major pullback this cycle, it's been right here tothis kind of 44-ish area on the RSI. And here we are kind of sitting right above it there rightnow. So, you know, everything's kind of coming in, you know, we took the liquidity there. Wekind of took some liquidity right here. You know, to me, this is a really good area to watchbecause you have this wick up here at about 97-921 on this chart and then you have thewick down to 98 330 so basically that same area right there and that's always something that youshould watch when you have wicks coming up and coming down and hitting the same area that just alittle quick tip there always watch that it's a strong area there but anyway we're right there
40:06about that but we're hitting these levels where we always you know this cycle anyway hasprovided support. So again, nothing's breaking down on the macro right now at this point.Even as far as pivot go, we're still. Extreme fear. Yeah. Yeah. We're still above the yearly pivothere. Have you ever seen like not that that's an indicator I watch so often, but if you ever likejust glanced at something like we're at an all time high, we should be, that should be literallyextreme gear greed, euphoria if you think the top is it. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But again,It's very hard to have a top when there's extreme fear for the stock market.I'm talking about right there.
40:45Right.But this is what, when they say climbing the wall of worry, this is what they're talking about,right?This exact situation where structurally, psychologically, we're basically in a bear market,you know, in our heads.But the financial itself, the markets are actually in a bull market, right?And that's that thing, right?Because everybody's always worried and it wears you out a lot worse.
41:07That's why people are probably feeling like this is so much more difficult than it'sever been, even though it, you know, if you look at the chart, it really hasn't been.But for them, it has been emotionally.And not just here, but also, again, with stocks, right?I mean, everything keeps going up.The, that fucking Dow is almost at 50,000.I remember, I remember when it was below 1,000 back, you know, before 2000 there.It's absolutely insane.
41:32But, and things will continue to go up here.Now, here's the thing.Because of that dichotomy, because of that, that twist between what people are feelingand what the market's actually doing,your point about euphoria is really importantbecause if we don't getthat euphoric feeling popping out with it,then when the market does roll over,
41:51it can be really rough.It can be really tough because you don't have anybody to sell intobecause everybody's sitting on the sidelines,everybody's out, nobody's really buying.And that's the big kind of concern with itas we continue higher.But right now, structurally, you know,again, I think we're still looking all right here.
42:14Nothing's broken down yet.For me, personally, I mean, I can see us potentially taking another push down.But right now, we've got a real good.Look at those tweezers.If we can hold like this and rise, look at candle.At support.Beautiful.Not even just tweezer bottoms.
42:28It's at support, which is huge.It's huge, right?These are bottoms at support with a nice hammer.Like, I can zoom in on mine just to give the idea.I mean, that is day and over.We got, you know, nine hours.and 13 more minutes anything can happen i don't want to like go fully unlet and celebrate the one yardline and fumble but yeah i mean yeah i mean you know you should at least be looking for possibly
42:52to get up here around 106 or so um i think we probably there's a good chance we could do that eventoday um but here's the thing big picture for everybody watching here's the thing if this holds wherewe're at or even if we dip a slightly lower there and we break out with a daily candle impulsive breakoutand close above this 113, 150 area, that's going to signal the low is most likely inand we're going to new all-time highs. Now, based on this one-two count here, as I've adjustedit, I've got a wave three up here at around 180,000. So we get 180,000, pull back to around150,000, and then rally up to right around 200,000. And those are just generally projectedtargets that we use every time with Elliott Wave, it can over-extend. You can get higher movements
43:41or shorter pullbacks. But generally speaking, that's what we'd be looking at. And for me,personally, I like those numbers. You know, the fact that we break through 150, pull back to150, and then hit 200. These are psychological strong levels that you would normally look foras support and resistance and whatnot. So I like the setup here. I'll be honest with you. Sowe'll see what happens. You know, again, it's like everything else.that I talk about, you know, there's levels you want to see broken out.So for me, you know, if you look, if this is going to be correct here, this is three waves down.So really, just a breakout above this swing high here around 111, 120, 111,200 or so.
44:21That should indicate that the low is.If my count's correct, that would indicate that the low is in and break out a little bit before you're 113, 150.You know, if you're doing Elliott Wave, you've got to break out above the wave X here, which is the all-time high, unfortunately, in this case.at 126 um but those are the levels i would be watching there um but you know again if you'reif you're sitting here and you're worried you're whatever first of all understand we're at agreat place uh through all the support levels i talked about and everything we're looking hereso if we can just impulsive breakout and close above the 113 150 we should be good to go overallyou know i mean we're get pullbacks along the way but overall we should be breaking out there and
44:59i'm looking up toward 180 is the next kind of target on that i mean listen i was never like the biggestguy, but I think it gives you some at least guidance about where mean reversion willhappen. It's been tested three times on the weekly 50s since breaking above in 23.I mean, and I kept saying even yesterday before it was happening, I was like, we're good.I want to see it tested and I want the week to close above it with a big wick below.Not as big of a wick as I was hoping for yet, but sitting right on it today after the flushwith a wick below.So listen, if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.
45:31If we start closing a bunch of candles below that, if that's your thing, I get it.like you can't know something in support unless you test it.So I don't know why people freak out until you have proof that it's broken.Well, you know, it's because, you know, for a lot of people, you know, people take offensewhen I say this, but the reality of it is most retail market participants don't know whatthey're doing.And so they get in and they hope that it's going to go.Maybe they listen to somebody online and they hope.
46:00Maybe even listen to me, right, had no idea how to apply.It's the biggest thing we have is people don't know how to open.the information that they can get online, right? So even if the information is correct,if you don't really understand proper risk management, how to apply that and what's going on,you can still mess it up, right? But people buy in. And if price doesn't go up and continue to goup, you know, because you don't really know what you're doing, it's very traumatic emotionally.Because every time it pulls back, you're like, oh my God, should I take my profit or should I let it run?Right. And that's that big thing. And if they've been in a few times,
46:35times. Maybe they've taken their profit a little early because they got scared and it continuedgoing up where they thought it would. And so then that plays back in their head as well.And so, you know, again, it comes down to the whole idea that the thing that you're fightingin the markets is yourself. I mean, that's what it is. So I think, you know, right now we'relooking good. We just need to follow through. We'll see if we can get them. Ethereum, everybody'sfreaking out about Ethereum, right? But again, same idea. We've got a, you know, a WXY here, a doublezigzag correction. Again, support at the S-1 pivot, monthly S-1 pivot. We kind of swept allthis, you know, right here and here, all this liquidity getting into this. So again, we want
47:15to see it hold here. Based on the structure here, we just have to get above this triangleresistance of wave X here at about 3916 to indicate the low is in and we're going to break outhigher. But like Bitcoin, if you can get a daily candle impulsive breakout and close above this4,09 area, that should indicate that you're good to go for a new all-time high with Ethereumhere. Now, the big thing on Ethereum and, you know, in Bitcoin itself is if you look at this movedown, so you've got your initial volume on that October 10th drop there, right? But coming fromthere, volume just continues to stay off, continues to drop off. You're not getting like,as this is coming down, you're not getting volume expansion like you see.
48:02see right here the market's joining in right here so i have that volume expansion you just got a spikeat the bottom which is usually capitulation so you get the one spike yeah and enlarged lower wickwith that and in this case it's happening right on support i mean you know again when these thingshappen by themselves it's a good enough thing usually uh but when it happens on support it makesit that much more likely now again there are no guarantees in trading blah blah blah you know how thisgoes right um but what you're doingas a trader is you're saying, okay, what are the probabilities like when certain things happen?And the more of those probabilities you can get together at the same point,
48:40then the more likely you are to be correct.And that's how you should be trading.And of course, with the proper risk management set in there.But Ethereum looking good here, I think, at the moment.So again, we just need to see follow through.Same thing with Bitcoin.Real quick, here's some charts.Last week, I talked about one of the charts I had was ZK here.
48:58I said, go along.It never goes down.did absolutely great here rallied up i think we're at five waves are just about five waves it'spopped up a little bit more here uh since i did this this morning we're right around the r1pivot uh on the uh the weekly r1 pivot we've got one two three four it looks like five waves so i'mlooking i'm watching for a rejection around here you can see it hit our two targets uh and thenwent up higher here um but if we can get a rejection around here i'm looking for a pullback toaround this uh about five cents to five and a half cents to five and a half cent
49:32area. And I'm looking for that to be in three waves to come on down here. And if we can get thatand start reversing, that should get us, you know, again, with this being a one and a two to a 50%pullback here, three heading out. But it depends. You know, we could still push up a little bit higherhere, which would pull this closer toward that pivot. But ultimately, the idea is we get apullback down toward this pivot area. And then that sets us up for the next move up. So that's whatI'm watching for now. This was great trade worked out well. The other two didn't break out, you know,I said we were looking for it to go long.This one did, though.
50:05And like I said, really great return on there.So I think there's more work here once we can get this pullback.Other than that, I've got whiff here.Remember when everything was with back?I love that you're looking at meme coins like in the in the depths.So good.Well, you know, we'll see, right?We'll see.
50:23And this looks like we've got five waves up here.Looks like we've got, you know, three waves back down.It looks like a flat correction.And then we've got this move up.And when I look at this, this appears to be a triangle.So, you know, an A, a B.And then we get our C down here.Our initial support was right here at this same line that I drew way back in the day.
50:45And then this one right here, this support level here, working to support here.So if we were to continue to break down, you know, that would end up invalidating the countbecause I think we'd get down here to the S1 pivot in almost about 28.and a half cents. And I'd still look, again, like we were talking about the other ones,I'd look for a rally up, impulsive breakout and close above the daily, I'm sorry, daily,monthly pivots here on the daily time frame to indicate that that low is in and we're goingup. But right now, the way it sits, if we can rally from here, and again, daily candle impulsivebreakout and close above this 55 cent level, we should be good to go locally with this being a
51:24one and a two. That gives us a minimum expected wave three target at just about 85 cents,Wave 5, just about 96 cents on that.I know we got to go, but there's a bunch of people asking about Solana.Well, you can bring up whatever you got too, but I don't know if you have a Salana chartbecause I see a whole lot of requests for it.And hey, we're men of the people.Yeah, yeah, I can pull up a Salana chart here real quick.This is Suey.
51:48Again, same idea.Looks like we've probably got five up and then kind of a flat correction here.One, two, three, four, and five.If we continue to break down, we should, what it'll probably do isprint a spring on this large range here targeting this one dollar 67 cent area maybe wicking down abit further but right now uh we're looking pretty decent again daily candle impulsive break out andclose above 269 would signal that that low is likely in and we're going to break out higher hereum so you know everything kind of looking the same way at the moment
52:21and let me see we got on salana here let me pull up come on there we gothere we go um do it they all look the same yeah yeah exactly you know um so with salonna herei've got this as a leading diagonal and then this is a pullback here um so i think beingan a b and then oh you know one two three four is a triangle five and so if that countscorrect we should definitely come back up here because a triangle uhWhen you do it per Elliott wave rules, it is the last consolidation before the last push in the direction you're going.So, you know, directions down.The last one should get up there.
53:09Almost tweezer bottoms here.You know, again, volume looking good down there toward that low.50% pullback.S1 pivot here, monthly S1 pivot.So once again, you know, impulsive daily candle breakout and close above one, basically 198 here should indicate that the low is in.uh real quick i'll get you guys a target here actually let me see with that being a one and a twolikely that would give us a minimum expect way three target about four hundred dollars and wave fiveabout four sixty one again these are general targets that we look at uh they can over extend
53:51but right now i mean i don't think too many people complain and you get into two hundred andgoes to 400 right yeah so yeah basically you know everything's kind of looking the same uh you knowwe're on those monthly s1 pivot areas for the most part um so if that pullback holds and we'rebreaking out through those monthly pivots uh there's little reason to think that we should be hitting lowerthere are no guarantees of course but generally speaking the way that price works with pivots um as you getthat you know if you coming in sideways between the pivot and the r1 or the otherS1, you drop the S1. Find support there. If you then break out above the pivot, it runs up.Usually R4 or R5 pivot on that that you're looking at least. So, you know, and it aligns with
54:39counts. But, you know, again, we can't guarantee that anything's going to happen. We're lookingto saying, okay, based on structure, this is what we're looking at. We've got alignment with a fewdifferent ways, whether you're looking at Wyckoff and Elliott Wave and price action and volume andpivots and so you've got a confluence of factors you know even mAs you know all happening at thatsame area which gives it a greater likelihood of being a low but you still need the follow throughto prove it right so yeah that's that's where we're kind of sitting all right man we made it all theway to 10 o'clock so we got to go everybody give tx west capital a follow of course check outeverything he's got to run man thank you very much see you guys soon later
55:23Let's go.
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