The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Will Hit $200,000 In 2025 | Mike Alfred

Episode Date: September 5, 2024

Mike Alfred joins me today to provide his bullish opinion on Bitcoin. Don't miss this show! In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  Mike Alfred: https://x.com/mikealfred The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► WANT MORE? JOIN MY COMMUNITY AND GET EVERYTHING WOLF OF ALL STREETS! 👉https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ ►►JOIN ME ON ROUNDTABLE! COMMENT AND EARN WEEKLY REWARDS! 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/n2nrexv ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin is in the boring part of the cycle, meaning that people are afraid to make large price predictions like they were six months ago. I can tell you that Mike Alfred is not. He says Bitcoin to 200,000 in 2025. And I think both he and I agree, spoiler, that that could be pretty low. I think it could actually go much higher next year. I personally don't think anything has changed since people were making huge predictions a few months ago, except for a bit of time and sideways price action and time-based capitulation. We're going to talk about that and everything Bitcoin and crypto now with the chart guys coming on at 9.30. Let's go. What is up, everybody?

I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Hit that like button. I'm going to go ahead and just save the suspense and bring Mike on right now. Good morning, sir. How are things out there on the West side at 6 a.m.? Great. Fine. No issues out here. I love it. All right, man. Well, here you go. Your tweet from two days ago. There are two primary paths ahead of us. One, we begin to rally in September and see 200,000 in 2025. Two, we retest the 49,000 recent low in September and begin to rally in October

and see 200,000 in 2025. That's accordingly. Pretty sure. Pretty sure. Feeling pretty good. What makes you so sure? Well, I mean, obviously, this is Twitter, so there's a little bit of facetiousness

that there's only two paths, right? Because anybody with a brain knows that there are an infinite number of potential paths that any asset could take. But I think they're two of the more likely paths. I mean, my low end target for Bitcoin next year is kind of 100 to 120K. Been pretty consistent on that. My high end target is upwards of 315K. And of course, there are really smart people who think it can go higher than that. I think the point is at a

high level, though, is that the people who are saying that the cycle is over, right, that like Bitcoin is not going to have a cycle at all, like those people are the ones that are most likely to be wrong. And they keep doing this every time, right? Every time there's like a little bit of downtime. We saw this September and October last year, there were people saying there wasn't going to be a cycle and all the miners were going to fail last fall. And then what did Bitcoin do? It woke up at like 26K in early October and ran to 70K by early Q, like in Q1, right? So I think we're set up for something very similar. It's amazing how similar this year was to last year in some ways.

We saw a big spike in the miners in July, middle of July, for no apparent reason, just like last year. Should have learned from that last year and taken the opportunity the market gave. But I think we'll probably see another move like that. It looks like Bitcoin's waiting for the election to make a move. That's consensus. So I was hoping that consensus would be wrong, but sometimes consensus is right, right? So like what I'm hearing from investors is like, we're in wait and see mode because we're

deathly afraid of Kamala Harris. That's what I'm hearing over and over. We're so afraid of Kamala Harris that we're not doing anything until we see what happens with the election. And Nate Silver and other people like that are saying that Trump has moved back into the lead again. And so maybe it's a non-event from a crypto standpoint, or at least a positive catalyst, but we'll have to wait and see. It's possible the next eight weeks are kind of annoying. Yeah, this seems to have ended up being the conversation every day, but it's one worth having is that expectation of the cycle repeating.

We're in the four-year cycle, the election cycle. We had the halving six to eight months after the halving, which seems to generally fall in October or November. All this boring ends and all this kind of floating downward price action ends and it's October and up only parabolic price move. Consensus is scary, as you said, right? each cycle that it happens more people are on board that it has to happen and things that have to happen uh are less likely i think in markets i still have my base case as we go up in october but maybe i'm nuts yeah you're probably going to be right though just because everybody's everybody deep in the space is primed for it and everybody outside of the space doesn't think it's possible

right like and even some people in the space have turned really really negative um i don't know if you saw travis cling's post the other day about quiet quitting and crypto like the crypto people have basically like given up in mass with the exception of people who just have really high conviction or people that have incentives like VC funds that have to allocate to tokens. So that space is dead. You've got all this macro overhang right now from the Japanese yen carry trade and what happened in August. You've got the US economy definitely slowing down. You've got the Fed probably going to cut rates maybe up to 50 basis points now, and then maybe one or two more times between now and the end of the year.

Eventually that'll flow through, right? Because they're trying to thread the needle to prevent unemployment from going up without causing inflation to go up. I think they're just going to pump small cap stocks, biotech, Bitcoin, maybe some crypto, et cetera. And I think that's not even on their radar as important. So they'll let that happen if it means that they don't hurt the labor market in the US. The other thing I'd say is the election, unfortunately, is the center of attention. It really shouldn't be. It doesn't actually make sense, I don't think, for most people to spend a lot of time on it. Yeah, it shouldn't make sense over the long run. But I'm hearing that people in other countries are even spending a lot of their time on this, right?

There are people in other countries that seemingly should have no reason to care that much. And it's like they have nothing else to do right now other than follow the Trump versus Harris battle. So I think that's why there's a bit of a maniacal focus on that as a catalyst. And so, like I said, it may be two months to kind of see how that plays out, but I expect that once that's over, there's going to be nothing else to do other than for Bitcoin to go up at that point. Yeah, I tend to agree. I see nothing but tailwinds rationally. Every single aspect of things we were afraid of has improved. And even Harris administration is probably at least slightly better than the Biden administration just because I've been thinking through this. For Bitcoin itself as a flight to safety, a Harris win could actually be good. It's the rest of crypto. I think it would have a big problem.

Yeah, it's sort of already gotten the stamp of approval and people flee to it when they're afraid. Yeah, there's the direct policy response. And then there's also just the monetary and fiscal impact. And my gut says that both candidates are going to allow and continue to propagate kind of $2 trillion plus deficits for the next four years at a minimum. And so if Bitcoin really is a store of value asset that increases in value as money printing happens, right, as deficits happen, as debt gets piled on in the traditional fiat system, then it's sort of irrelevant outside of signaling who wins because both candidates are effectively going to do the same thing. I think Goldman Sachs was out yesterday basically saying that Kamala Harris, believe it or not, would be better for the economy

than Trump. And so, yeah, the president's a figurehead. Their leadership is important. There are some ramifications in the Senate banking committee, for example, that a Trump victory might accelerate. But outside of that, it's going to be business as usual for the US government. It's going to be print. It's going to be increase the debt. It's's going to continue to spend a lot of money. And so I think the case for Bitcoin has never really been stronger. The consolidation period since March notwithstanding, the case, the thesis, the long-term thesis for owning Bitcoin hasn't changed. The timeline for when it has its next parabolic advance might have shifted

by a month or two. But I tend to think that this period right now continues to be just a gift for long-term allocators, like people who have a long-term view on Bitcoin or the sector broadly. And this is where you make all your money in investing is when everybody's in pain. Everybody's lost money in something this year. Everybody's taken a drawdown if you're long. And if you're short, you don't make any money in the long run anyway. So I'm not really considering those people because those people aren't going to be as wealthy anyway. But the people who are allocated long term to the sector, there's nobody who's happy right now.

And that's really fertile ground for the type of moves that you want to see. In fact, the longer this goes on and the more frustrated people get and the more people capitulate, the bigger the up move will eventually be. There are people like me who are just not going anywhere. I'll be here in 2026, even if Bitcoin is 40K. I'll probably have more gray hair and more lines on my face or whatever, but I'll still be here. There are some people though that are right on the edge of capitulating at any moment right now. They're reading all the tweets from influencers saying the cycle's over and we're heading into a depression, sell your Bitcoin. And they're just a day away or two days away from selling. And at some point in

the next month or two, very quietly, Bitcoin, even with negative news flow, will just turn and start to go up towards 70. It could happen tomorrow. It could happen today. It could happen next week. It could happen after the election, but it'll happen. It'll start to move up. And when it breaks 73, we'll find price discovery. And so I don't think it has to go to 200, just to be clear. The headline's the headline. But I think that's right in the middle of my expectation. I think somewhere between 100, 120, and 315 is what I'm looking for. And I still think that's the most highest probability of what we see in the next, call it 18 months. So much to unpack there. So Travis's writing was amazing, but it describes something that's insanely obvious and that you could have

predicted even when Bitcoin was 74,000. So it kind of blows my mind that we have to do long form think pieces on time-based capitulation, which is the reason that markets have bottomed since the beginning of time. People get bored. They get disillusioned. It doesn't go up only and they just give up. In March, I was tweeting and doing shows saying, dude, this meme coin casino, the price of Bitcoin, this is the top. See you in six months. Things are going to probably go sideways. And now that it's happened, even I get these little creeping moments of doubt when exactly what I predicted happened, that the next part of the prediction will come true. I had David Young from Coinbase on yesterday, and he had

written this huge institutional research report six months ago saying we would have a very uh brutal q3 and a very constructive q4 and he said but i'm having less conviction now in my report and i said dude you literally nailed the exactly what was going to happen in q3 but now you're doubting the q4 part now that we're in it yep yep even natural human thing. As I said on your show a couple of times, the move from 16 back to 50, 60, 70 is just a rebasing back to a reasonable fundamental level. The actual price discovery move where we rediscover that Bitcoin is more valuable than we thought it has hasn't even started. And actually, these moments are gifts. They're not opportunities to sell. They're opportunities to add exposure if you still need to.

So, yeah, I hear you. I think you should pay attention to sell. They're opportunities to add exposure if you still need to. So yeah, I hear you. I think you should pay attention to that. The sentiment has gotten pretty negative. The sentiment on the broader economy is still fine because the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are still near all-time highs. And after August 5th, a lot of stocks had very quick recoveries. And so trad-fi people are still feeling maybe overly optimistic because they still think if you hide out in the same seven stocks that nothing bad will ever happen to you. That I think is a riskier positioning. But being long crypto right now has actually become the most hated trade. It's become non-consensus.

Even some people in crypto are giving up. I get why people are giving up, by the way, on the second, third, fourth tokens after Bitcoin, because it's just been terrible, right? For this cycle. There's been no love. Still down 90 something percent from last cycle. There has been no cycle. Yeah. There's been no cycle, maybe with the exception of Solana off the bottom. But like, you know, so I understand that. But the people who are negative negative on bitcoin like bitcoin's up 30 percent still almost 30 percent at kind of 60 000 to me just blows my mind yeah i mean we're bouncing around the high 50s when you if you went back a year to all the terrible things happening in this industry and you were like september 5th 2024 bitcoin 60 000 book it 56 60 to me everybody

would have been absolutely elated. But that's what I'm talking about, the human nature. I mean, look at this. Not that I put so much faith in the crypto fear and greed index, but now fear, yesterday, fear, last week, fear, last month, extreme fear. Is this when you're supposed to give up? No, that's what you're supposed to add. But here's the other thing that I think might be affecting people is these time-based capitulations, like the longer they go, people don't have the intellectual capability to imagine a different regime. Unfortunately, like as smart as people seemingly are, they start to believe what the market is telling them, which

is Bitcoin is going to be stuck between 40 and 60K forever. And so let's say you're down a little bit on your position, you get antsy. If you bought at 63 or something or 65, and now it's 57, the way it's going, I'm never going to get my money back. The problem with Bitcoin is you can literally blink. In between your last blink and your next blink, the entire framing of where we are in the cycle and the sentiment can flip. It's not like a blue chip value stock that if it goes down 30% on earnings like we've seen with Dollar Tree or Dollar General or some of these other large cap stocks or like a total decimation like we've seen with Walgreens, right? Like a formal blue chip dividend aristocrat that's fallen like 80, 90% from its highs. You'll never get your money back potentially in some of those names because those names don't move up 100, 200, 300% in a year.

Bitcoin can literally pop like 20, 30% in a week and all of a sudden all the commentary will change. The sun comes out, the birds are chirping, the flowers are in bloom, and you're like, wow, just a week ago, it seemed like Bitcoin was literally over. And now we're at 70K and it feels like we're going to 100K. That'll happen. I don't know when. Again, like I said, it might have to wait for the election because people are so small children, they're fascinated with the election to the exclusion of everything else. But at some point, maybe in October, maybe in November, maybe in December, the sun will come out, the flowers will bloom again, and people will forget that we were even talking about there being no cycle. So the time-based capitulation thing just has the ability to convince people that Bitcoin is fundamentally changed. It's broken irrevocably. And I bought it at 63. it's at 57. I'm never going to get my money back.

And I'm here to tell you that literally can go from 57 to 67 in an afternoon if it wants to. If the right piece of news hits the tape, like some country adopts Bitcoin or Apple puts it on the balance sheet or something, it could go to 77 in a day. And then all of a sudden you're going to go, wait a second, why was I so negative in the 50s? It happens every time. It's not so important to me when, but I just have a feeling that's going to happen in the next few months.

Right. Or the people who are like, well, I'm down a little bit. I might as well sell here and buy at 40. Yeah. That's kind of a silly game. If it got there, by the way, anyways, because they'd be so scared. And occasionally it does do stuff like that. Occasionally, this is the problem with trading too much. You start to convince yourself that it's predictable.

The problem is you pick up these small trading wins. You go, wow, look at me. And so I'm a wizard. I'm going to sell Bitcoin here and buy it back at 52. And then you miss it. You don't want to chase it because you're disciplined. And so when it goes to 67, you don't buy it. And when it goes to 77, you don't buy it. And before you know it, we're in the 80s and you didn't buy it because you wanted to save what? 3,000, 5,000, 8,000 on the downside. And so the key thing here is, right? Like I think 49 is probably the bottom,

as I said in that tweet you put up. Again, that's not the only scenario. Of course it can go lower, it can go to 42, it can go to the thirties. But if that's the low point with high degree of certainty, like somewhere in the forties and the high point is maybe 200 or 300,000, and you only have to wait a year, 18 months for that, like you have to be a child to not want to participate in that. Asymmetry is literally where all the alpha in investing comes from. And so if you run away from situations that are asymmetric because you're afraid of macro, then you should just go do something else.

Go get a regular job and invest in index funds and buy stocks from your financial advisor or whatever. But don't do this. This is way too hard. It's way too hard. It's way too competitive. It's way too psychologically bruising. You have to disassociate even as a professional a little bit over time in order to survive. Because if you are too tuned in to every movement, like I see these traders that post charts of like the one hour chart and the five minute chart and the like every day, four hour chart. And they're like, it looks good on the four hour, bad on the one hour,

good on the five minute. I'm like, you're literally going to give yourself a heart attack. You're not like, you might make money eventually, but you're going to be dead. And you're not gonna be useful to anyone by the time the cycle actually breaks out, know what you own and just sort of ignore some of the short-term volatility that has nothing to do with the fundamental value of your positioning. And that applies, by the way, not just to Bitcoin, but any proxy, including miners, which as we've discussed are up a lot off the bottom in December 22, but have had a lot of volatility to get there. And for many people who own them, they're down or they feel like they're down, but nothing's changed. Nothing has actually changed with the story. If we

get a hundred or $150,000 Bitcoin, those names are going to be a lot higher. If we don't, then the price action we're seeing now is justified. But people are too easily fooled by what's happening in the very short term. If you think $57,000 Bitcoin is where the price is going to be for the next 12 or 18 months, by all means, go ahead and sell all of your Bitcoin exposure. But if you don't think that's the case, then maybe don't trust what the market is saying about all the value of all the proxies because the market might be wrong about that. It typically is at this point in the cycle, right? Yeah. You brought it up. So I just searched this article quickly because I had seen this. Bitcoin mining profitability hits record lows, JP Morgan report says.

I love that. I love it. Yeah. Isn't this just another fear and greed index? It's a classic bottom signal, right? Because the public miners have never been in a better position for the future. They're not mining for the mining profitability in today's dollars. They know that once mining profitability, this article flips, Bitcoin mining profitability in today's. Does they know that once mining profitability, this article flips, Bitcoin mining profitability hits highs for the cycle, right? By the time that happens, there's literally no way to bring on more capacity because all of these things are taking longer and longer to set up. So if you wanted to start up a new miner, the moment that

JP Morgan says Bitcoin mining is great again, you won't be able to do it the cycle. And so the people who have been putting in the time and the capital and the effort to build up these large scale sites now are the only ones who are going to benefit in large scale when that happens. So to me, keep those articles coming, right? Because at some point quietly, it's not going to matter because Bitcoin doesn't care about mining profitability. Bitcoin will go up when Bitcoin is ready to go up. The mining profitability goes up following the Bitcoin price once the Bitcoin price goes up. And so you want to be investing out in front of that. You don't invest when the article says Bitcoin mining is wonderful. You invest when the article says Bitcoin mining is terrible.

If you have some understanding of structurally what's going to make those businesses valuable at higher Bitcoin prices, which is my bread and butter. Right. But it's not all of them, right? I mean, there should, they still seem to sort of, I mean, I guess there's been some differentiation, but at what point do we see the ones that you've done the work on that, you know, own their own facilities, have lower electricity, aren't renting, didn't buy a bunch of miners at the top of the cycle, right? When do we see them sort of separate and go their own way? When do we see them summarize themselves? They already have, to some degree, Scott, since December of 22, right? If you look at the high point of this year,

the returns of those best operators far outstripped some of the firms from last cycle. Riot's a good example, right? Riot was one of the top two firms from the last cycle with Marathon, but their stock is down almost 60% year to date. It's down year over year when you still have year over year increases in a bunch of the new leaders, operating leaders. So that's already happened. The question I have is really what happens between now and the actual end of the cycle, which I still think is pretty far out. I'm starting to think that this cycle is going to run a little long, right? It's taking a little longer. It feels like it's taking a little longer at least to get going

and it probably will run a little bit longer on the back end that people think. I think even just six months ago, people were saying the Bitcoin cycle top would be Q3, Q4 of this year. I think it's pretty clear that's not the case now. I think going into next year, people will say that the cycle top will be Q1, Q2 of next year. Based on the CapEx that's being invested in mining and where that industry is going and how big it's going to get, I think that that's at least pushed to the back half of next year, if not 26. And that was not a popular thing to say a a year ago that it could go to 26. I always had like a 20% or 15% odds placeholder for that as a as an outcome 25 being the most

obvious candidate for the top but you don't really like you don't really have to care much about the prices on the screen and mining until we get to some of those higher prices like so the only thing that I recommend that people do is watch for opportunities like now where they seem pretty depressed relative to what could happen. There's no reason to get all bent out of shape. This is what happens when you have long periods of consolidation where the market starts to think you're not going to see a cycle. And so your only bet is, will there be a cycle? Will there be higher prices again, post-having like there typically is? And if there is, then everything in mining is going to

readjust, not just the really good companies, but all the assets in mining will go up in value. But I do still think some of the best operators, the ones that have the most growth, the best infrastructure, the lowest cost structure, et cetera, those ones have a lot more upside. And I'll point out Iron, because of course I'm on the board, so I'm biased, but I'll point out today's report. The company was guiding to 20X a hash, which is a huge growth from 10X a hash in July, August. No one's ever been able to grow that much at that scale in that timeline. It's taken Riot and Marathon years to gain a few exahash in some years and

irons trying to do 10 in like a couple months they just announced they're at 16 so they went from 10 to 15 like basically at a month they're at 16 on the third fourth day of this month they'll be at 20 by the end of this month if their guide is correct and then they're guiding for 30 at the end of the year that would place them basically on par with where Marathon is, but Marathon's trading at like three times the enterprise value plus of iron. And somebody just posted that tweet just recently. I'm also, of course, watching the market caps. Someone just reminded me of the details of it this morning. So there's just still a lot of dispersion. There's a lot of valuation discrepancies. There's still some alpha to be created even within the mining space. And then separate from that,

you just have the macro, which is that if Bitcoin goes to 100 or 150,000, all these stocks still have a huge repricing event ahead. There is a scenario where, again, iron is like a $40 stock. And now it's a $6 stock again. So did you want to buy iron at 15 and wait for it to go to six and then to 40? Or did you want to buy it now and ride it to four? Obviously the internal rate of return, the IRR is going to be higher buying it at two, three when we were talking about it last fall or six now, seven. These are good prices. This is a gift. If you understand what you own, which I'm sticking with this company for years either way, right? So I don't really care what the kid traders are doing and the analysts are doing on Twitter, what they're saying about the

RSI or... Because it's not going to matter. The fundamentals are going to win out. If they're right that mining is going to be a valuable thing to do at higher Bitcoin prices and we get higher Bitcoin prices and they have the most capacity growing at the fastest rate with good power costs, then the value of equity is going to go up. It's not rocket science, but for whatever reason, people like to overthink it. Are we seeing any minor capitulation if profitability is at its lowest? I mean, clearly none of these publicly traded companies are going out of business, but you've got to imagine they have to sell some Bitcoin or something to make ends meet, so to speak. But I would have to imagine that a lot of private miners and smaller ones that nobody's talking about have quietly disappeared into the sunset.

Yeah, we saw Rhodium filed for bankruptcy. We saw Grid get acquired by CleanSpark. That's not done yet. And I put out a tweet in advance speculating on whether that deal would happen a week before it was announced. And the bots got a hold of it and drove up the trading volume thousands of percentages, which I didn't expect. And I was just totally going off of my gut read of the situation. And so I've since cleared the air with the company because obviously I wanted them to know, of course I didn't have any inside information.

I didn't know anything. And I didn't know that it was going to be announced that quickly. But look, there are other companies like Grid that are in a situation where they're going to need to sell, but they're largely smaller subscale. The mega miners, the miners that have over 10x a hash or at least over 10x a hash at the end of the year this year, none of those guys have any problem with capital right now. It's just a different market. They all have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. They all have a lot of cash on their balance sheet. They all have access to large untapped ATMs in many cases. And so, yeah, this capitulation that we were supposedly supposed to get, it was predicated on the balance sheets looking like they did last

cycle. And I called this out a year ago, two years ago. I said, look, it's not going to happen this time. We will see some M&A, but it'll be bolt-ons. It'll be smaller subscale firms. It'll be privates. And so, yeah, the privates are in more pain because they weren't able to raise capital over the last 18 months with all the distress in the market. The public miners, the clean sparks and the irons and the marathons and the riots are flush with liquidity right now. And so they're just not experiencing the same level of distress that people would expect, which paradoxically is beneficial for those of us who are in those equities because it's really hard to compete with those firms once they get to scale. The small miners have essentially had to sell themselves or quietly wind down or

go bankrupt like rhodium, and the large miners just keep growing. So I think it's actually, we're coming into the sweet spot. The next 12 to 18 months is the sweet spot. And the more pain and struggle and strife there is right now, probably the fiercer the rally will eventually be. And I'm here for that rally. I'm not here for the move from two to four or even two to eight. I'm here for what happens when Bitcoin goes parabolic and when these stocks tend to reprice in really dramatic fashion and the entire perspective on

the industry changes. And we're still at this point in time where people are super negative on the sector. And I think that's still going to end up being a mistake as painful as it's been for people to hold them over the last six, seven, eight weeks. Super negative on Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining when Bitcoin is, you know, at $60,000 basically blows my mind. Mike, thank you so much for your perspective. Always amazing having you. I think $200,000 is a pretty mid-range prediction, personally, for the top of the cycle, whenever

it does happen. Guys, follow Mike Alpert on X down in the comments, man. Have a wonderful day. Thanks again. Thank you, sir. Have a wonderful day. Thanks again. Thank you, sir. Have a good one. All right, guys. And now on to talking about those charts that Mike was mentioning before.

We got chart guys. We got Dan here, man. How's it going? Real good. How you doing? 200,000, 315,000. Are we smoking our own stuff? Because I really believe it.

Just a matter of timeframe. Some important points that you all were talking about, the activity as a full-time trader, my activity trading crypto is at an all-time low right now since 2017 when I first started. And it's because of the conditions. And if you just look at my trading, it matches the chart. If we're in price discovery, blue sky breakout, I'm way more active in my trading. There's way more volatility and way more opportunity as those new ranges are being discovered. And while we're seeing this kind of slow grind down, yeah, I don't look at hourly charts anymore. I don't look at even like four hours, the lowest I'll go.

And it's just, you have to be able to, the number one thing I keep saying in trading is you pump the gas and you got to know when to pump the brakes and consolidation and tightening ranges. You pump the brakes, expanding ranges, price discovery, pump the gas. And that's very important. So how are you looking at Bitcoin right now then? What are you looking for to consider pumping that gas pedal? So we talked two weeks ago and talked about how, you know, looking for a potential little laggard move to the broader market, just in terms of getting this weekly bounce going. I wanted to see a move to 67. We got to 65. We knew the weekly lower high was the most likely scenario compared to 70. And then I hypothesized the potential of an inverse

head and shoulders here, if the bulls are going to take over here September into October. So that's still a possibility, but bulls certainly want to set that right shoulder as soon as possible. We want that weekly higher low. And we're looking for the same thing across so many asset classes right now. We're looking for a weekly higher low in gold. Well, gold's looking good, bull flag. We're looking for it in silver, which is not looking nearly as good, but look how similar silver is to Bitcoin there. It's looking for the same inverse head and shoulders. The NASDAQ, we are looking for a weekly higher low for a continued tightening range. There's no sign of it, but we're looking for it as the most likely

scenario. So all these asset classes are looking for the same thing and Bitcoin is no exception. So what we need to see is progress on the daily timeframe to show us that the weekly higher low is being set up. And we just don't have that quite yet. But again, it's what we're watching for over the next couple of weeks. Anything above 49,000 is a weekly higher low for this tightening range. Yeah. I'll take that. I hope we don't go below 49,000, but who knows? So what else are you watching in the meantime? I mean, this is September of an election year. It's supposed to be the most volatile month you get, period, basically. So there should be a lot going on in markets. Yeah. Essentially, one more thing I want to mention is just with regards to trading, my previous trading style in my early years, I would just be saying, okay, a weekly higher low is most likely. And I would just be scaling into a few positions here. And then all the way down at 49 would tell me I'm wrong. I have to wait till 49 to know I'm wrong. That's way too much risk. It's not a good risk to reward setup. I need a level that I can say,

that's either the weekly higher low or I'm wrong. And then use that level as my stop to have way less risk. And so I need something on the daily chart. Again, I'm not going to try and nail the bottom because that's not a good strategy in my opinion. I need something on the daily chart where I can then say that's either the higher low on the weekly or I'm wrong and I go off that level and it leads to way less risk. And so that's what I'm looking for in everything that I just mentioned. Silver, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Bitcoin, for all of them, I need a level sometime in the next couple of weeks where I can say, that's either the weekly higher low and I'm wrong. And aggressive bulls are going to be looking to play off of those levels to establish their trade

game plan. But as you mentioned, going into the election, let's talk about cannabis again. So cannabis is experiencing a moment here where, you know, same thing with crypto. Crypto right now has both candidates. They're trying to say, you know, I'm the good one for crypto. And then, you know, so Trump doing that led to the other side of things saying, well, we're not so bad. Let's reach out the olive branch and see what we can do for the sector. And we're seeing the same thing in cannabis. It was a Democrat issue. Biden and Kamala were talking about it. And now Trump's trying to seal that issue. And so most recently, I've been focusing on Florida specific cannabis

names. TCNNF is who's on the chart here. They're easily the leader in Florida. And I'm focusing on them because yes, there's a fundamental federal backdrop where of course, the government's dragging its feet. It's being very slow for this rescheduling to schedule three. It's probably coming down the road 2025, but it's a long wait. But we got the short-term catalyst where Florida is voting to legalize recreational cannabis in November. And, you know, over the weekend, just recently, Trump comes out and didn't say I support it, but he was very open to it. And he was saying things like, you know, he was talking like, this will pass, he was talking in the future, this will pass, he allegedly met with the CEO of this penny stock TCNNF before coming out for it.

And so the fact that he's coming out now and saying, we got to deal with the smell, but medical is a good thing. And it really shifts the probabilities that Florida is going to pass. And you have to get 60% in Florida, which is a much higher hurdle than 50%. And so I like the risk reward of this name. Number one, it's still very low volume. $5 million is a solid day of volume, which is nothing. If it passes the target, I'm not a fundamental guy, but I got to keep aware of them. If it passes in Florida, the target market magnifies like 500%. The amount of tourists and the general population that would then have access to these already very established stores and brand is just hundreds of percent. And so you expect revenue to magnify by hundreds of percent

if it goes legal. And so I love the technicals just for the clarity here. Simple statement, this is a base at $8. You can see we held it one, two, three, four times. If we lose that before the election, it's a big red flag. But I've been focusing on this name for the past couple of months. It's the strongest name. In the past, we've looked at MSOS, the ETF, which is still very weak. But if you look at TCNNF divided by MSOS, it's the strongest it's ever been. This is clearly the leader in the sector. And so why am I going to focus on the ETF that has a bunch of dead weight holding it back when I can focus on the one strongest name that has an extra catalyst that the majority of the names don't have? And so long story short, keep an eye on this name as it potentially starts to price in the legalization of Florida. Keep an eye on the polls that are

going to keep coming in that help us determine probabilities. But Trump said he's got another statement with more detail coming out potentially next week. It's a potential topic in debates now between the two. So as far as election plays, I've been doing this for 14 years with cannabis stocks leading up into voting year election, or I should say election voting years. And this is definitely one that I've been patiently waiting for. Love that so much alpha. Anything else you're watching at the moment? That's really it. Just weekly, weekly higher lows and all those names, but being patient for it and not making any assumptions. Got to see the bulls giving us a reason that we should be saying

weekly higher lows are set or I'm wrong. And we don't have those just yet. But again, first half of September, that's what we're closely watching for. Love it. All right, guys. Well, that's all we've got for you today. I got to head over to the wolfofallstreets.com and make some content over there. And Dan, I know, has to head over to his channels and make some content there. And just quickly uh twitter spaces has been insanely glitchy i don't know if anyone's been paying attention but we basically haven't been able to get through a full show with everybody on stage for a week so we're gonna cancel that today until they get their uh stuff together so bummer that was an issue yeah it was an issue months ago. I remember, but yeah, it's like,

it's like it's 2023 or 2022 or something, but here we are. So yeah, that won't be happening today, but hopefully I'll be back tomorrow. I'm in it. Thank you so much. See you guys tomorrow here with Nathaniel Wittenberg.

Later. Let's go.