The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Will Make New All Time High Soon! | Macro Monday

Episode Date: February 19, 2024

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1  James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish  Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘TENOFF’ FOR 10% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker     ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Just two weeks ago, Bitcoin was trading at 42,000. People were calling for new lows. We were going into the mid to low 30,000s. What a difference two weeks makes. Now Bitcoin up to 52,000, up nearly 25%. From that point, hit a high around 53,000 and holding it throughout the weekend. Obviously, it's President's Day in the United States. Happy holiday, everyone. So markets are closed. Gives us a lot more to talk about here with Bitcoin. And since we are now at 52, we have a lot of pundits, traders calling for all-time highs before the halving. I really want to get everyone's take on that idea because I would find that very, very surprising. Guys, we've got the special holiday edition with Mike McGlone, James Lavish, Dave Weisberger of Macro Monday coming to you right now.

What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. I'm going to bring on the gentlemen now. We have Mike McGlone, James Lavish, and Dave Weisberger. Mike, I see you. I love that you have the Bloomberg step and repeat even in your home setup. You look very professional, very proper, different mic, looking good. There's no Monday morning meeting for you to recap, but what would your Monday morning meeting be if you had to give one on this holiday? So I've enjoyed, one thing I love about my job and weekends, it really gives me a chance to catch up on my macro 30,000 feet view. And like today, I'll probably go in the office, partly because I have a great commute if I take my e-bike. And the 30,000 view, I enjoy hearing how, oh, we might get recovery out of China and Germany and Europe.

And then they miss one key thing. Typically, these things happen a year or two after rate cuts. We haven't even started that. Now, okay, China's got that. One thing you should expect in China is a tradable bounce in the Hong Kong, Shanghai, and the most Chinese indices. That's just a matter of time. We got to get that tradable bounce. We're still not getting it. But it's the macro. It's some of the silly things I hear that I enjoy. Even I hear from a lot of the I heard a few copper miners say, no, prices will go up when the Fed starts cutting rates. And the key thing that's really starting to trickle down for me on a daily basis is stuff that's suffering because the Fed hasn't cut rates yet include TLT bond prices, gold. And the number one thing that's preventing, I think, the Fed from cutting rates

is the stock market going up. And I think that's the key thing we all can kind of agree on. There's really little reason with the S&P 500 total return this year, about 6%. That has basically been a good year already. It's only been two months that you have to be saying to yourself is, okay, well, this is great, but it's really pushing back. And what typically takes for stock markets to go up, it's just the momentum carry over from last year is the way I see it. The key thing I like to, so I'll tilt over to what I'm seeing come on is pretty much severe deflationary forces with the exception of one commodity. And that's crude oils holding a little bit of a bid because of geopolitical events,

which are basically probably going to be bad for crude oil, typically how it works. You look at things like natural gas and corn, industrial metals, they're all at prices equivalent to crude oil going to $40 a barrel. And then I look over at gold's down because the feds are taking all that easing out. Why are they taking easing out again? Because there's no reason to ease with stock market to go up and inflation sticky. So the key conclusion I've had this weekend is there is, and based on the book I just read called Capitalism Without Capital, all about the difference between intangibles and tangible assets. Now, this is a world that's going mainly for intangible assets, rightly so. But the thing we should think about is it's really odd to expect inflation to go down when intangible assets are making record highs. So there's our problem. And a lot of us were on

top of that last year. We had that big discount in the S&P 500. We don't have it anymore. But now it's the exact opposite. So I look at it as Bitcoin is proving it's somewhat significant as a leading indicator and potentially maybe a bit of divergent strength. But the key thing I like to point out with Bitcoin is both the Bitcoin and S&P 500 are a five handle. And that to me is what we still haven't seen yet. I just want to get over that point where we get the normal, someday we have to get a correction

in the stock market and see Bitcoin not do that. So I tilt over to the bottom line is what James and Dave have been spot on about. We have seen inflows are well exceeding supply in Bitcoin. So that's going to continue. The key thing I'll end with that I enjoyed pointing this week, and I had a conversation with a leading intellectual in London last week about cryptos. And the first thing I showed him was, I would love to go to the coinmarketcap.com and I click on volume. I can point out the number one trade of crypto ain't Bitcoin. It's the dollar. It's Tether.

It's almost double the volume on a daily basis of Bitcoin. Now, that's been the case for, what, four years now? Most people don't know that. So I had to make sure I pointed that out. And when I point out that, I'll end with the macro, the big macros. We have a situation where the largest economy in the world, through our normal discourse, has just embraced Bitcoin with ETFs. And the most widely tracked cryptos are the dollar. I mean, the most widely traded is the dollar. And then the second largest economy in the world is pushing back and going for gold. And it's created this unlimited friendship

with the bad guys, Iran, Russia, and in North Korea. So I look at it in a macro standpoint, this is a great time for America. But in the meantime, we have a way overdue area where we need a correction in our equities, we're probably going to get that recession that everybody expected last year. And risk assets are very expensive. And the riskiest asset is Bitcoin. Didn't Japan and UK just quietly go into recession last week officially and nobody's talking about it? Well, they are talking about it. But the key thing is, what stops that?

Typically, you need a long and variable lag to easing. Japan's talking about tightening and it's, it's entertaining. Before we jump, I want to go James, but I want to just show you guys a tweet that Mike, you just reminded me of Russell Okung, who many may know is an NFL athlete and star and literally quit the NFL to go on a spiritual journey and to promote Bitcoin in the lightning network across Africa. Literally incredible guy. He tweeted this on the 17th, two days ago. During my time in Africa, while advocating for the Lightning Network, I faced a cold, hard realization. Despite my efforts, I found that more people were interested in dealing with USDT rather than Bitcoin. They

desired USD, even if they were synthetic versions. Yeah, that's interesting. Well, I mean, because there's so many people who are unbanked, right? There are 1.5 billion people in the world who are unbanked. And if you're in an area that is oppressive or your money can be seized or you have high inflation, then you want to protect it by having the dollar because the dollar is the most stable of all the currencies around the world. So that's not really surprising. Tether is interesting because we've gotten to the point where the treasury needs tether because what is the biggest holding of Tether? It's U.S. Treasuries and specifically T-bills. And so they need to hold, they need to allow Tether to keep operating in order to keep operating at these massive deficits. And it's interesting, Mike, you talk about the

stock market. And I agree, we do need a sell-off in the stock market and asset prices for the Fed to have kind of their – I guess they need some ammunition to lower rates. And that is essential. They need that. But what's interesting here, and I'm going to pull this up here, Scott, and share a screen on something. So if you can, there you go. If you think about this, what's happening is we, you know, we were talking about this last week is you have monetary policy, which is tightening, and you've got fiscal policy, which is loosening.

I mean, we're running multi-trillion dollar deficits at a time we're not even in a recession. This is just nuts, right? So we all know that the US government has been spending massively. And what does that do? We're spending on defense. This right here is a statement from the Department of Defense. They're talking about how every single NATO nation needs to be spending at least 2% of GDP on defense. If they're not, they need to get there. Wow. Right.

So, I mean, like that's a massive amounts of money being poured into defense spending. And then you've got things like this, the Biden infrastructure, the Inflation Reduction Act, which is just pouring money into all these infrastructure projects, which, yeah, we do need to spend money on infrastructure that's good, but it's inflationary. We continue to pour money into areas of the economy. It's not widespread. They're pockets that are getting this capital, you know, but then you've got the U.S. government is pouring money into the semiconductor industry. I mean, like they're just pockets where they're picking and choosing and just dumping capital into. So people are sitting here wondering, why are we seeing areas of inflation, yet areas of pain? You know, you've got the young consumers, their credit card debt is getting to a point

where they're not paying that off now. We're increasing our levels of defaults on credit card debt for young consumers to the point of where it was in the great financial crisis. So it's a real strange dynamic. And it brings us back to the point of small companies are going to start being really constrained for capital with interest rates that are held at this level. And at some point, that balance tips. Does it tip us into a recession or does it tip off some sort of credit event that that causes a steep downward sell off in in asset prices and in and actually everything? Because, you know, the correlation of one trade, does that happen? And this is where we're kind of at and where everybody's trying to figure out, are we having a soft landing? Are we are we pushing our way towards some sort of economic crisis, some sort of, you know, credit event? Or are we just going to have no landing and take right back off before the election? Because it's election year and we're going to keep spending. It's a strange dynamic. Dave?

There are two totally separate threads that James and Mike have gone through, and I want to address both of them. The first, because I teased it in a tweet, the thesis about Tether is fascinating. People don't understand that Tether has two use cases. They're both important. Use case number one, people in the global periphery who have crappy currencies, who want to be able to trade and spend and hold their money in dollars because it's money that they need to spend

over the next, you know, whatever, six months, three months, two months, whatever. But it's money that they're not saving for the long run. They can have it right on their phone. Right on their phone. So, you know, if you ask the question, and one of the areas, there are lots of areas that Mike and I actually agree on. I know a lot of our audience tends to try to stir up shit between the two of us, but we disagree on a couple things, but we agree on more than we disagree. One of the things we agree on is that in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king and the dollar has an eye and most of the rest of these currencies are walking around like mr magoo and uh and that's an old person reference

for those who don't know that was a cartoon character who had big glasses who was functionally blind it's actually kind of funny but We've got Mrs. Magoo. Right. So in any event, the use case for Tether, that is for people to hold dollars. I mean, anyone who's traveled in lots of countries I've traveled in with crappy currencies, you pull out your dollars and they are happier to take that than their local currency. You know, they love Americans in various places in Africa and in South America. So, you know, it is what it is. That's where Tether has a huge use case. Now, is that its dominant use case? Absolutely not. Sorry, Mr. Okung, you're a great player and I really love what you've been doing. But the truth of the matter is it's not the dominant use case for Tether. The dominant use case for Tether is as a gateway into buying crypto

full stop. And so that's something that is extremely important for people to understand. Which is why they want to stop it. However, they can't because of the total size. But the point that I want to make here is both of those use cases have something in common. The people who have currencies that depreciate 20% a month or more, they don't care about the fact that they're not getting a yield. It doesn't matter to them. They're going to spend the dollars anyway. So to them, moving and using Tether and holding Tether out of their local currency is a lifeline. And they don't give a crap that Tether is the most profitable company on earth because there's five plus percent interest rate that they get on

treasuries, whatever. The second group of people, the people who want to buy or sell crypto, they don't care either because they think they can make a lot more than 5%. And so they don't care. So Tether has this ridiculously, you know, it's not one of those things that's likely to last for decades, but it could last for years, of where there are people who are willing to let them scalp 5% on float. The US banks tried this. So to those who think that this is unique, remember, before Silicon Valley Bank dropped, one of the what was happening was most of the large money center banks had interest rates despite 5% on the you know, on the short rate from the Fed, they were giving a quarter of a percent of yield on savings accounts

or checking accounts, something like that. It's still rather low. So but for anyone who looks at Tether and says, Well, wait a minute, you know, how can they get away with this? Well, the answer is because people who want to spend the dollars, they don't really care. They just need it. So that's thing number one. And when you look at Tether and you look at what Russell Okung said, the answer is very, very clear. And that is, yeah, Bitcoin for people who have disposable income and who actually can save, it's a savings vehicle. It's not a spending vehicle. And so that's thing number one that needs to be talked about. Now, remind me, I want to blister the moronic takes about BlackRock's taking over the financial system in Bitcoin, because there's a lot of stupidity in the Bitcoin maxi world that we

should talk about, but we'll get back to the Bitcoin maxi world that we should talk about. But we'll get back to that. The second thing is when we talk about our monetary conditions actually tight right now, the answer is no, they are not. You have slightly above real rate, you maybe have real rates that are slightly positive, depending on how you measure inflation, but they're hardly at anything historically high. I would say most people would say monetary policy from a rate perspective is slightly restrictive, not accommodative right now in the United States, whereas it's definitely accommodative in most countries around the world. Certainly, Japan is ridiculously accommodative, but Japan has been ridiculously accommodative, but Japan has been ridiculously accommodative for the long term. But why do I make the statement that it's

not, that monetary policy is not restrictive? The answer is because we're pumping liquidity in as fast as we can. In other words, because you can't ignore the fiscal side of the world. You can't ignore $2 trillion deficits. And James and I talk about how nuts it is. People don't understand. We are in a situation that makes, historically, if you parachuted anybody from any era to today, and they said, and they looked at the deficit of percentage of GDP, government spending in the U.S. as a percentage of GDP, got spending compared to expenses. And you said, and you showed them the unemployment rate, and you told them that we weren't officially at war, although obviously we were unofficially

somewhat in lots of conflicts, they would say, no, that can't be. It literally makes no sense. And the reason it makes no sense is because typically the government has supposed to be, the argument is that there's this contra business cycle, that the government expands when private demand is low, but private demand isn't low. And so that money has to go somewhere. The big conclusion, what does all this mean? Well, what it means is we have literally institutionalized a policy over the last couple of years to try to get back to something that we weren't, which is the rich get richer, the poor don't, but hopefully the poor won't be complaining, but they're failing on the latter part. So what do I mean by that? I've said

this before. Inflation is monetary, full stop. That's Milton Friedman said that, but what he missed and what people don't talk about and people kind of beat around the edges is it depends what's getting inflated. When assets get inflated, that helps the rich and wealth inequality goes way the hell up. And when assets inflate, it also triggers investment in things that are disinflationary from a consumer point of view. Multiple examples. Mike loves to talk about and is totally right that when you trigger investment in natural gas exploration, in oil exploration, in better technologies for extracting oil out of sludgy tar sands in Canada and shale, that U.S. is now the largest producer. Would we be the largest producer if interest

rates had been high? And if we weren't targeting significant, we weren't trying to prioritize investment? Probably not. But we are. And so that's a good thing. But that's consumer disinflationary, asset inflationary. And there are many, many examples of that technology. We were at our local Costco yesterday. Anyone who's ever gone to Costco when there's a massive rainstorm in Florida would understand what kind of experience that was. But it was unbelievable. It was like a monsoon yesterday. Did you have to show your ID? What?

Your ID to get in? No, it wasn't so much that it was packed. It was that you couldn't, because everyone was kind of standing under the overhang and then it was pouring, it was crazy. But the fact is, is that more than half the checkouts are now the self-checkouts or the automated ones. And so there's less, more and more technology, less and less people. And that's fairly obvious that's going to happen. So I think that people need to understand that. So the fact is we have this fiscal policy that is forcing expansion, but we have cracks in the financial system. And if anyone thinks that the reason that Powell didn't say what he did and that the

market is saying, yeah, maybe one or two cuts now for the rest of the year. And you can look at the yield curve. The yield curve has not been this flat in a long time. He understands that there's a fundamental disconnect in the economy, and the politicians are terrified about that. Powell went on 60 Minutes to say, well, I'm not political. As I said, I think I said this a couple of times, a Shakespeare line, he thinks thou don't protest too much, is rather obvious. He may not want to be political, but the reality is the pressure is going to be huge. And we've said in talking about this, I think the Fed will

cut rates when they see something is about to break to the extent that they're any good at that, which is another way of saying, I don't think they cut for a while until something breaks. Until something breaks. Because it's always, they wait until the last, and then it's just too late. So I just pulled this up and I want to ask Mike and we'll move over to Mike on the energy, because this is what you're talking about, Dave. And this right here shows the, the estimated real rate. This is what the fed uses. That blue line is what they is, what that is a neutral rate, right?

So it shows that we're above, I'm sorry, that the white line is the neutral rate. The blue line is where we are in Fed funds on a real rate. And so it shows that we haven't been this far above the neutral rate since the 80s. And so this is what people are freaking out about. If you look through all the 2000s, from from basically from the great financial crisis all the way until now, we've been kind of we've not only been lower than the neutral rate, which is expansionary, meaning that it the money is cheap enough that it expands, right, because you can borrow and spend. But if you look in here, it was negative

for most that time. So you were being paid to take money and borrow it and go invest in the economy. So the problem is now it's suddenly we've jacked these rates up from that. You could see that V draw down and spike back up in rates. And now people are freaking out because they're thinking something's going to break or, oh my God, I need that free stimulus. I can't operate without it. I built my whole business model around it. And now I have to pay from... What do you mean I have to pay to borrow? I can't do that. My I just, my, my business model doesn't allow for that. And so going to what Dave was talking about with, with energy and that feeds right into Mike's wheelhouse here is this is, this is a new, this is kind of a new horizon for many people in over the last couple of decades.

Mike, before I jump in. Okay. Scott, unless you want to transition, because I have a few things I want to add there. I think it's the, I can mention a dozen books I've read that have really honed my view, but actually a lot of times I do more listening because I'm the worst reader, but I love to do stuff and listen.

I think a lot of our listeners are doing that now. And that is the key book that really struck me was we all know Jeff Booth and the price of tomorrow. I mean, a big Bitcoiner. He crushed it. Unfortunately, I read it a little too early. The deflationary forces he talked about are happening clearly, most notably in China, catching up in the US. And then there's another book by called The Domino Effect by what was his name? Brazil was the last name.

And just pointed out how you just the whole world is starting to catch up to the U.S. technology that. Remember, when we were kids, we were, you know, oh, we had to build that SPR and we had problems with wars over in the Middle East. And we, you know, we had recessions. That doesn't happen anymore. It's the way things have changed so much. It's dramatic. But to me, the key thing that is striking now is two things that I can't write about yet, but I want to, is the leadership that's happening in China right now must fail, President Xi. If it doesn't, the whole rest of the world will follow that model and say,

oh, it's okay. Look at South America. And it's also on that same page, what we're doing with fiscal and monetary stimulus in this economy must fail because if it doesn't, it'll just keep happening until it does. I mean, just a normal little recession would correct the excesses of we all know what we did when we thought we were going to die three years ago with too much liquidity. The good news is we haven't suffered yet. Thank God, but other people have. China is a good example. Another book, The Price of Time, is pointing out what's happening there. It's a Great Depression kicking in. So that's the way I'm looking at it. Maybe we're early, but I'm hoping to get through the end of this year and

say that we did okay with this transition. But the problem is, as you pointed, it's what is a $1.6 trillion of GDP growth last year that cost $2.5 trillion of deficit spending. I mean, you mentioned that's just shocking. You come down from another planet and you say, yeah, good luck with that one, guys. Now, of course, you can say Japan's been doing it okay. China, they say is similar levels if you look at numbers from JP Morgan, guys. Now, of course, you can say Japan's been doing it okay. China, they say, is similar levels if you look at numbers from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs. And then you have these other assets that you can protect yourself. I just look at it as the number one factor, I think, this year is what's happening in China, the second largest economy kind of imploding. But what are

they doing? They're creating massive deflation. They switched over from focusing on the property market as I heard President Xi shifted a lot of banking to EVs and like and solar. So, what does that mean? Massive exports. Why is China, why does Europe have to push back on exports of China EVs? Because they have to. Because it's just crushing their businesses. So, to me, that's the deflation just kicking in. I I have facts to point that out. If you look at PPI, even after last week, finished goods in the US, the average from

the US, China, top markets, Japan, and Germany, it's minus 3%. Yet Fed funds are at 5%. That spread at 8% has never been wider. So it takes some time. And I think this is where I have to push. Dave and I, we have to agree, but we have to disagree on why bother have both of us on this program. I see what you mean about liquidity. But have to agree but we have to disagree or why bother have both us on this program is I see what you mean about liquidity. But to me the

liquidity is trickled down for one thing the whole world knows and I'll end on this. The whole world knows I think every professional big picture money manager on the planet knows is the risk reward of that us little that little old stock market just dropping for a down year say maybe 2% 3% 5% yield stuff that used to happen is so exponential on what's happening with significant deflationary forces and recessionary trends in the rest of the world that it has to go up, which is part of the reason why you have to be very careful being long

and been wrong. But we've had other issues, places where you can do better performance, like cryptos and Bitcoin. That, to me, is why this year is going to be defining. So I'll end with this. Two years ago, I said this year is going to be defining. So I'll end with this. Two years ago, I said crude oil is going to go to 40. I've been wrong. As an ex-trader, I know I would have stopped out and lost money, so I put fill or kill on this year. I still think it's going there.

I've done the equivalent in natural gas. I've done the equivalent in corn. I've done the equivalent in industrial metals. And that's where I am from my commodity-buy standpoint is I don't see what gets this better until you have a long and variable lag, the significant amount of Federal Reserve easing. What's stopping that from happening? The strong stock market. I want to say one thing, Dave, before you jump in. I was muted before. Listen, we all know John Maynard Keynes, right? The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. That plays for individual investors, of course, who are trying to trade

these markets. But I think it's a cautionary tale at this point for the entire system. And I'm starting to believe that everyone with a rational... Here's what I'll say. The four of us are way too smart to have a conversation about what's actually going on because we actually dig in. And the reality is the government just wants to kick the can as far down the road before the inevitable collapse that they know is coming. And they know that there's no way to stop it. Right? So to me, it becomes increasingly more difficult to call for the recession in three months or six months or nine months or 12. I don't know when it's going to come. The thing is, I believe that when

it does finally come, whatever that event is, there's absolutely no stopping the endless hole that comes. I think they can kick the can further down the road than all of us believe for a very, very long time. Agreed. And most economists and most investors from last year, you know, all the calls for recession, including myself, I just did not expect us to pour so much fiscal stimulus into the system. I just did not expect these deficits to be so large. And I expect the deficits to grow mostly because of just the debt burden, not because we were adding to it senselessly. I just did not expect it to be so haphazard and reckless, but that's where we're at. That's my point.

I should have handicapped the election year a little bit better. But that's also my point, is that the expectation for anyone who studies history who has watched this would be that the Fed would start printing and they would fix it on the monetary side, but they have this whole other fiscal playbook that nobody's even paying attention to. And because they haven't done

it in this manner in the past, everybody's going to take a long time to catch up to that trick. And I'm just surprised at how many tricks they have to prop this thing up. There's countless. And the point, and it goes right back to what Dave's statement was, is that the Fed will hold rates high. We don't know. The Fed may have to raise rates at some point. You and I both tweeted about it. I said, you and I just tweeted about that this weekend. It's just insane, right? And the point is, it's going to continue on until the Fed has no choice and until something breaks. And when we say something breaks, it means that there's a catastrophic failure at some level, whether it's a small company that tips off through contagion, other companies or other banks, or it's a large company that just fails because of some unforeseen event.

But it's because monetary policy is so tight that it prevents them from being able to save themselves. So I think that to understand where my investment thesis disagrees, it is about the last seven to eight minutes of conversation. I think that there are enough smart people who control enough money that look at Bitcoin as an opt out in the long term, a bet on the lack of confidence in our system. And you basically heard all three of you, myself, all four of us basically saying we are fucked. Let's understand something. We may be not screwed now, but we are fucked in

the long term. Sorry for the F-bomb, but it literally encapsulates what every one of us is saying. The US is the best of the bunch, but the fact is the bunch is screwed. China, building cities that no one's going to live in and all that stuff eventually comes home to roots. I mean, Mike Blithely made the comment of G pivoting away from real estate. Why? Because they built so much real estate that they have no use for. And so you spend a lot of money and you employ people and you build this stuff and then no one has the money to sit and go and actually use it.

It's a problem. It's called malinvestment. And we have had malinvestment on a global scale. Japan started it. We and China and the US have been equally running races to see who can malinvest in what. And malinvestment literally means building stuff, investing in something that were conditions to be normal, there's no way it would make sense. People would say, no, the ROI, return on investment on this investor doesn't make any sense. But yet we've been doing it for decades as a systematic policy globally. Now, the reason that

I mentioned this is because I tend to agree with Mike about the stock market. I think it's price to perfection. If you pulled up James's little chart where the last time real rates were up, early 2000 looks so much like now, it's scary in so many ways in early 2000 we had a blow off top in the first couple months of the year into mid-march when people started having to pay their tax bills for the previous year and boom i'll never forget a 15 correction in the nasdaq index in one day in march and a bit of a sell-off that got corrected. And then it rallied again, kind of a lower breadth rally. And I'm not sure there could be much of a lower breadth rally than we've had recently, but we'll leave that alone. A lower breadth rally into what ended up happening

in the fall. Dave, I just want to, I'm not interrupting. That was an election year, just like this is. Oh, yes. It's very similar. People should realize that if you believe in the political, that they're interfering with the market, they would want it to crash now and then rally into the actual election. And I don't think that they're interfering, but there's tremendous pressure to not interfere negatively. That's the point. But the point is, I want to continue the point here is because I think we look at Bitcoin, it's a trillion dollar market. It's tiny. It's very, very small. And 70% of that trillion dollar market won't sell. Us diamond handers, I have mine in cold storage, whatever, we all do. And the truth of the matter is 70% of Bitcoin isn't for sale.

And when you look at what the marginal amount that it takes to move the price, it's not much. So now we just had a narrative change where the entire investing public is hearing about it personally. They can't until they're allowed to advertise here about it louder. But the truth is Bitcoin is being positioned by people like Larry Fink and not in addition to us. I mean, we've been saying it for a while as an opt out. It's like if you want a long term bet that we're fucked, what's the way to play it? The way to play it is Bitcoin. And that's the issue. The issue is it doesn't take much. So

do I expect a D-Link this year? Yes. Do I see Bitcoin strength now as proving it? Yes. Do I hear all the bullishness on crypto town halls or all the stuff we do? Does that bother me? Yes, it bothers me, except for there's a simple problem. A lot of people aren't voting with their feet. The money that's coming into the sector isn't coming from the crypto bros. They've been trying to rotate into altcoins and getting punished over the last few months, right? Or some of them doing really well. Some altcoins have done phenomenal. I mean, Solana, Injective, you know, et cetera, et cetera.

But the truth is the money that's coming in is a trickle of people who are saying, hey, I need to get me some of that opt out hedge also. And it's really small. I just got of the Bitcoin and NASDAQ. Yeah, go ahead. Sorry. And so, you know, you have that. And then the other thing that's been going on are, yeah, China has been the bid for gold, but the ETFs and the individuals and the people are drawing down their gold safety net and moving into Bitcoin at a very slow point,

but it's there. But consider the size. Gold is still north of 10 times larger than Bitcoin for this monetary use. And so, yeah, that's been my thesis. Do I expect all-time highs in Bitcoin? Yes, I do. Why do I expect it? Because I don't think we're going to get uneffed anytime soon. And I think people are going to continue to want that hedge. And I just don't think there's enough supply at these levels. I want to show you something before, to confirm what you're saying. This is a chart of net transfer volume from two exchanges for Bitcoin. This was the biggest day we've had in a very, very long time. It was just yesterday and today. Coins rapidly leaving exchanges. And then if you look right now, Coinbase effectively hasn't had this few Bitcoin on the exchange since 2015. This is the price going up. This is the supply on Coinbase dropping. You don't need to conjecture. Now to be clear, guys, supply can come back real fast. It's just one transaction. I saw some analysis about this. I want people to understand,

the audience should understand that, yes, that is true, but there is a but here. With fireblocks, with coppers, they're pushing for Clearloop and other places, people and the OTC desks of the world can move coins around much faster and don't have to leave them on exchange. Plus, with Coinbase's concentration and custody with the ETFs, I think a lot of other custodians are winning different types of business. So I do think that that's a little overstated. But that said, there's just not that much supply if demand goes up. And demand is going up. And you can see at Bloomberg, James and Eric do a phenomenal job for tracking those inflows. Look, there's probably another $2 trillion in GBTC that almost certainly has to get, not $2 trillion, $2 billion in GBTC that has to get

liquidated. That's still held as collateral in various bankers and whatnot. The market's already kind of shrugged that off and said, okay, well, it'll get absorbed. The market shrugged that off because we saw that every two days for almost two weeks when the ETFs were approved and prices higher than when the ETFs were approved. So rationally that we know that that's not such a big overhang. Mike, it seems like you're dying to say something. Well, I got to piggyback on that because after we clicked on, we finished our macro Mondays last Monday, I hopped on my bike and went over to the ETF exchange, ETF event at the Fontainebleau in Mountain Beach. It's the best bike ride in Miami,

particularly in February from a guy from Chicago. And it was shocking the difference from last year. So I went back on Tuesday and there was one major panel, which my colleague Eric Beltunis was the moderator and some major ETF providers, Bitcoin ETF providers. Matt Hogan was one of them. Grayscale was there. And what a difference a year makes.

And I was kind of skeptical. I figured, okay, most like I pointed out in the show, I figured most what I've experienced in commodities and gold my whole life is, yeah, what are the compounded earnings over time? I mean, that's what you get in gold commodities. You're better off in equities because you get smart people creating dividends and actually doing buybacks. And Bitcoin doesn't have that. But I was shocked. There was his panel was wall to wall all the way out into the food court. So I went to, I figured,

OK, there's only one other panel at the same time. I went and checked that that went out. Same type of seating, half the number of people. So the thing I really enjoyed about here, you know, I always view myself as just viewing it from the outsider view is you go to a Bitcoin conference, you get a lot of lambs. You know what lambs are? They wear outfits that say, look at me or tattoos and stuff. At these ETF conferences, you get the professionals, men in suits and coats, gray hairs and women in dresses. I mean, they're professional money managers. And I was impressed. They were all interested in this Bitcoin thing. Teach us about it. What do we need to know? And what you said, Dave, what you said James, you mentioned too, is the marketing is just overwhelming. I was on the sell side of that marketing. So I have to say, and if you look at that and you look at the price

action, it was when you get that sharp correction, it comes right back as a trader. You say, oh, okay, I get it. Reject support, come right back to resistance. I mean, that that's impressive. And I figured, cause that I see that. And then, so I still back to resistance. I mean, that's impressive. And I figured because that I see that. And then so I still have that problem. I got to see how it responds to. And I hope Dave's right is when we get that correction. Right now, it's just a high beta measure. It has been. Maybe that's changing. But I have to admit, going to this event, which was kind of my epiphanies in 2018 when I went to Hong Kong and they all told me about, no, Mike, it's not about cryptos. it's about the dollar. I got it then and it's just more, so that's when it was only 2 billion now, so now it's like 142 billion through crypto dollars.

But this is what I wanted to point out is that exchange event last year, which was a downer. So I talked to Mike Schoenstein last year and his quote to me was, Mike, should I sue the SEC? I'm like, well, Fred Pye did it in Canada and it worked. So let's give credit to where credit's due. Profiles encourage. He did and he won. Imagine if he had lost. What would do for his life, his reputational risk, his career and everything? He won. So let's look forward. How is history going to judge people like Elizabeth Warren? I'd like to say good luck with that one. I have to say really quickly, what you just said makes me obviously more bullish. We had made the argument on this show that the ETF trade was done, right? What's the next narrative? What's the next

thing we're going to look at? Well, we're sitting at 52,000. The inflows are massive. So maybe the traders trading around the approval, that narrative and trade was done. But I think it's pretty clear with the supply side on exchanges dropping and the inflows. It hasn't even started. Most of the people in that room were there for the first time, maybe even hearing about Bitcoin for the first time, and they just showed up because it was the crowded panel. All you have to know is this, that on the weekend that the spread to March futures in the CME are at the high end of the range. It will fade when they can trade other things to hedge. You have all these people trying to hedge Bitcoin ETF

trades using one vehicle when the rest of the world, there's literally no premium in any of the perpetual swaps, whether it be Tether or, there's like $30 premiums. I'm looking at it right now. Funding rates are flat. Funding rates are flat. The leverage market is not. There's nothing there. There's no speculation coming from outside the world. And the point that Michael is crystallizing is that, look, there's just not that much supply of Bitcoin in this opt-out trade. And these people are trying to learn about it. I mean, look, I came from this world, right? I didn't go to the ETF conferences here or the equity leader summit.

You know, I've spoken at that at like five straight years. It's just because enough is enough. I mean, you know, they can come to me now. Right. You know, the answer is what happens if Grayscale didn't sue or Grayscale lost? My first thought was I have to learn to say, would you like fries with that? I don't know. Instead, CoinRoutes is profitable. We've traded over $175 billion through our platform now. We're helping our clients execute better. It's really important to understand.

It's really important. Hold on understand it's really kind of important hold on i gotta close the door my wife yeah you know the point the point here though is and mike has had uh made a good a good display the the point is that the narrative has shifted but it's slow it takes so long for these people to understand. I'm telling you, we all come from this institutional investing background. And to think of explaining Bitcoin to chief investment officer who doesn't know anything about it, it just sounds daunting. Because to get them over that hump, man, that is a long road of teaching and understanding. This is not something they're just going to pick up on overnight. I think some people, a lot of people, including

myself, I was much more optimistic about it. I thought that there were a lot more investment managers who were poised and ready to take advantage of it immediately. But we're seeing it more of a trickle. The on-ramps are being built. They're being allowed to talk to it, solicit their investors, not just take unsolicited orders. It's starting. And this is what is encouraging, actually. I think it's a much more powerful and sustainable growth if you have it slowly rather than everybody just rushing all at once. Oh, they got their Facebook IPO. What do I have? How are they making money? Oh my God, it's not as much advertising as I thought it was. Everybody sells off. It's not that. It's more of a slow build, which I think is a much healthier build into the ecosystem. Go ahead. Sorry.

I was just going to say that one of the things that I find amusing is when you look at the rally that Bitcoin went from 42,000 to 52,000. Hold on. So let me piggyback on Dave real quick. There's two things I need to point out is at Bloomberg, I'm a very good, happy employee, but they've asked me to cover cryptos a little bit less. Dave, I'm going to piggyback right to you. So one thing I've been pointing out for years is you can't hold gold anymore, in my view, without some Bitcoin in that space.

And now we have this epic paradigm shift in the global world order that's only going to be judged from the future. And in the middle, it's hard to measure these things where the largest demand pool source for gold on the planet now is China, the People's Bank of China. According to the World Gold Council, they are buying gold at a colossal pace. Okay, so there's a country, a person, let's give China credit, let's give this credit potentially to the president who's tilted over to the bad guys, Russia, Iran, North Korea. And then there's this other country, this is the world's largest economy in the world that we will beat each other up, but we have the right to do that. We won't don't have to suffer. We might get fired. We're not going to get killed. But we have,

we beat ourselves up and we just prove Bitcoin ETF. So what is the vested interest of the US government? And by the way, our currency is the one that this space has gone to organic. Most people in China who trade cryptos when they can illegally are doing it with the dollar. So what's our vested interest? Gold or cryptos and Bitcoin? We can answer that question. It's just the macro is overwhelming. How's history going to judge this period?

It's absolutely right. And I think that you need to understand the dynamics of the market structure are changing. So like I was just mentioning, we had a rally from 42,000 to 52,000. And before that happened, you had all these people talking about God candles and this is and that, you know, all this stuff. Meanwhile, what did we actually see? What we saw is a rally that looked exactly the same as the rally in Microsoft and Cisco and et cetera, back from the early days of 2000, that analogy, i.e. it rallies three to 5% on a day and that's it. And people stop buying. So the buy spigot turns off. Why? Because anyone who's ever sat in an institutional trading desk knows that after a certain point, money managers say, OK, I'm not going to chase it today.

We'll take it back up again tomorrow. And that literally happened for four or five straight days. And so we saw this rally and it looked very, very different. And the people in crypto are like, yeah, but it's strange. And what is that? Well, that is what institutionalization looks like. It looks like people will allocate and they'll allocate a small amount and then small relative to them, but big relative to crypto, things move higher and they're like, okay, I'm done. And that matters because what you end up with is we've always said this, and this is just the beginning. We've always said that if Bitcoin achieves, and we all know I talk about it's an option. And I'm not going to go through that whole thing again. Plenty of the people on Twitter abuse me for constantly repeating myself.

But effectively, we are starting to see the initial stages of Bitcoin volatility decreasing. The problem is, is that if in fact animal spirits wake up in the Bitcoin community, if in fact everyone were truly voting with their money instead of just talking about their own book that they expected to go higher, well, that's a different story. Then yeah, you can see a lot. We have not seen any leverage really in this rally. And that's why, you know, Coinglass, when you look at liquidations, and we always do that, Scott, I know you do too. It kind of looks like a descending wedge, really. I mean, there hasn't been happening and we've had a fair amount of movement.

That decrease in volatility is extremely healthy. I like to talk about a decrease in volatility as if we didn't go from 42 to 52 in two weeks. Well, because it didn't happen in a day. That's the point. Now we have weekly God candles instead of daily God candles. Let's also remember there is a very good reason for that. The advent of ETFs, a lot of us have been waiting for

the wake of loss for 10 years. I mean, a really good reason for that value. Now we're in that stage where, okay, well, we have the halving coming up. What do we do after April? Okay. We know what's going to happen, but it's in a much more stage now. It's a mature adult and there's that bid below. But the key thing I want to just piggyback on what Dave said a little bit, there is clearly outflows in gold ETFs and obviously clearly inflows. There's clear money coming from macro large caps into Bitcoin. The question is what accelerates that. We all know what that might take. By the way, I have a quick take on what

happens next. And maybe the group doesn't hear it, doesn't want to hear it, but it's Ethereum and it's all coins. And that's what probably comes next in that boring period. I mean, listen, if you dig in, Ethereum's fundamental supply outlook better than Bitcoin's. If you look, obviously, Bitcoin is still inflationary, but that drops progressively. Ethereum's actually deflationary. I'm not making a case for ETH, I'm just telling you. And then you have now the institution saying,

listen, this ETF trade is going to be next. You can see ETH is literally advertising on every single one of these, which I find hilarious as we're talking about it. But then you take a look. Total market cap, this is excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ignore the lines, it doesn't matter. Just made a new high since 2022 of May, right? $555 billion. That's excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. So as much as it feels like the altcoin market is dragging, it's rising fast. If Bitcoin gets boring, I don't think it's the end of this market. I think we

start to see the real degeneracy flow into the altcoin market as we have in past cycles. Maybe I'll be wrong this time. Every other altcoin cycle has seen Bitcoin move back towards support, not be pinned almost to resistance. This time, instead of moving back towards support, it's moving towards resistance, but it's because the different type of buyers. So I actually believe that relatively speaking, that the crypto community is not short, but is underweight Bitcoin compared to where they would be if they thought this was a Bitcoin upcycle. And that seems to be the case. I also want to go back to something that Mike said about China. I personally, now I know this sounds like a tin foil hat theory, but the fact that China has 21% of the world Bitcoin mining capacity at this point,

to think that that's not money, that's not Bitcoin going into China's coffers to augment their gold purchases, which is their way of buying Bitcoin, I think you're crazy. It may help explain just the sheer hash rate just going straight up. I believe the Chinese government is mining Bitcoin in the same way they're buying gold. I think they realize, and it's true, that if they were to buy Bitcoin on the open market, that Chainalysis and other people wouldn't know they're doing it. And that would be a headline and they don't want to support it. But the fact is, I think they feel the need for sound money assets. And I think that that's where the mining is coming from. Now, I could be wrong. There's nobody really knows the truth here in the West that I

know of I haven't seen I've heard people make this speculation before but it's entirely possible and it's worth understanding that yeah yeah I think you know one of the one of the important parts of what you were saying before Dave and I think Mike you were touching on is that look institutional investors coming into space this is still just a nascent asset to them they don't understand it but as they do get to understand it it becomes something that they have to own and it becomes something that has to be in the portfolio and that's kind of what we're working towards um when you look at the the magnificent seven you wonder why are they going up every single day to dave's point you just have an allocation you're like i have to own it if i don't know and i have to explain to my investors why we you wonder why are they going up every single day to Dave's point? You just have an allocation.

You're like, I have to own it. If I don't own it, I have to explain to my investors why we don't own it. I've got to own a little bit. So what am I going to do? I'm just going to, I'm going to VWAP into it.

What does that mean? You give a trader an order. It says volume weighted average price. And all they do is all day long. They just buy a little bit all day long just to stay with the volume. And then they say, Oh, I got the same price as everybody else did. And then it just keeps going up. And that's exactly what happens when you have these clusters of stocks or this area or this segment that you have to own.

Right. So if you whether it's a sector or it's just these mag seven, you have to own them. You're VWAPing into it. And until Bitcoin will, I believe, get to that point where it is an asset, separate asset class that you must own, just like bonds, just like tech stocks, just like health care, you've got to own a little bit. And that's when you get that just every single day, that VWAP. And that is what will kill the volatility, but it's a double-edged sword. Because when you have so much capital in that asset, that when you do have a drawdown and you have that correlation of one event, this is going to be affected just as much, if not more than anything else.

Right. It is parenthetically interesting that one of our more popular algos recently that we've just enhanced is a very parameterized percent of volume participation algorithm being used for crypto, Bitcoin, etc. But it's important because people need to understand that unlike stocks where there's a very clear pattern, right? There's the open is a big print. It kind of drifts down. And then there's a very clear pattern, right? There's the open is a big print. It kind of drifts down. And then there's a close. It's a bigger print. This thing never stops trading. It never stops trading. And so you need to be able to participate. And we give people the ability to look at moving averages, et cetera, to disguise their trading better than normal. But the truth is it's very popular. And that is something that matters. And that's as you institutionalize markets, it turns out that that's not a horrible

way to trade. The reason people used to be terrified of that in Bitcoin was because there was so much wash trading going on that you could be manipulated. And it's worth talking about. On the major exchanges, that's really not happening anymore. And, you know, obviously, in the derivative world and some of the other stuff, yeah, there are those volumes. The volume to open interest looks too high. And we have a whole conversation about whether what we think is real in crypto. But the notion and this is the point that I wanted to get to that I mentioned before. There are a lot of people in the crypto community who keep saying, oh, my God, it's institutionalizing Bitcoin.

It's ruining it. oh, my God, it's institutionalizing Bitcoin. It's ruining it. Oh, my God, we don't, you know, tinfoil hats, you know, types are like, oh, my God, BlackRock's going to own it. First of all, BlackRock doesn't own anything. BlackRock's investors and clients own what they own. So every single person says, well, there's a God can't, there's a bit of God. I mean, you know, I love Mike, but, you know, Mike Alfred, but when of god i mean you know i love mike but you know but mike alfred but when when he talks about you know blackrock was on the bid it wasn't blackrock that's on the bid it's blackrock clients that are on that's right to be fair to be fair it's 10 trillion dollars of assets underlying right so you know now the point i'm making is is there was this there people are saying oh this is going to ruin Bitcoin.

It's no longer an opt out. It's like, no, Michael Saylor. Actually, when you listen to him, he makes this point. And we were on one of your crypto town halls when he made this point that, look, the point here is to get people into their zeitgeist, into their consciousness that Bitcoin is sound money. And what's the best way to do that? Get them exposure to it, have the price go up. They'll see that it becomes, it becomes reflective. And no, and no one is, that's why Mike McGlone wants us to be, because that is that reflexive

point going on. I'm just saying that we're kind of earlier in that narrative. Now, the fact is at some point, there's only two ways for hyper Bitcoinization to happen. One is an organic path where it becomes the denominator that more and more people value, view money at. And the other is the absolute, you know, we have a Mad Max Thunder, you know, Mad Max, you know, Fury Road kind of scenario where everything breaks and people want to create a new system from scratch from the ashes. I personally would prefer to live in the incremental one than the mad max fury road and and and that's just something that you have to think about it how do you get from here to there

it has to either be organic or you have to assume some sort of cataclysm you know i kind of don't want to live through a cataclysm i don't know about you guys i literally said that on a podcast with uh austin federer from Solana yesterday. I make that Mad Max joke all the time. Nobody wants to be that right. Exactly. Oh, guys, we're up against time. I didn't even ask the question.

The Bitcoin new all-time high. Personally, I'm just going to say I would still be surprised if we make a new all-time high ahead of what seems to be the normal halving cycle. I think we're higher than we should be because of the ETF trade, which is wonderful. I shouldn't say I would be surprised, but my still base case is the normal going to April, yay, halving. Price doesn't do anything because nothing happens at the halving. We have kind of a boring summer and then next fall election season, up we go. You guys, you give the quick two second take. It's Bitcoin. It could trade back down to 32,000. It could test those new highs between now and April. I mean, it's just reality. It's what it is. And it does depend on what's going on in the market and liquidity. But I personally,

because of the narrative shift, because of where we see the spending and we see what the market is doing, and because of the election year, I think that we are going to continue to march higher and test those highs. Do I think we make new highs by then having? That's hard to tell. Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter. I do think we do make new highs this year. That's me. Dave? I think that the next few weeks we march higher. I then think that March is a very dangerous season for the magnificent system.

And if there is a NASDAQ risk asset correction, Bitcoin will correct with it. Is that because people are taking profit for taxes? Is that the base case there? The base case is that people have to sell where they made money for capital gains from last year. That's generally, that was the pin in 2000 for that mini, it wasn't that mini correction, but whatever. I still think that's a scenario. If that doesn't happen, I think we see all time highs around the halving, which by the way, is not usual. For people who don't watch this, the halving usually is not when the high is. The high is generally six months after. You get a correction after the halving. That's right. So I don't think anyone's talking about the halving narrative right now. And I

don't think, and so except for people like us, I think the people putting in their 401k couldn't care less. And so I do think that the next few weeks, we probably have more rally. And then there's a danger period. And we'll see what happens. I mean, I think that it's important to understand how that navigates. I don't disagree that correlations go to one if there's a major sell off in the stock market. If the stock market keeps marching higher all year long, yeah, Bitcoin's going to weigh in advance of when you would expect to make its all-time high.

Mike? No clue. I'm trying to figure it out. That's good. Here's the key thing I'll point out is we have to expect the past performance of Bitcoin not to be indicative of the future. You have to expect volatility to continue to decline. The key

inflection point was when futures launched in 2017. That started the ARB. Most of that ARB is gone. That was an awesome ARB. I just enjoyed the people I talked to doing it because like, wow, I haven't seen that since OTC options in the 80s in my background. I look at it as the problem with speculative risk assets and the stock market advancing too fast is it takes

the fed out of the picture no easy you're not going to get that ease you basically kind of need a correction in risk assets um means the stock market for the get liquidity to turn on and then it'll be a year or two now we pointed okay how long is it going to take to get to the new hot plateau and then we want to see the beef and bitcoin outperforming it probably will outperform it's just a question of getting to that inflection point and you know like i said it's been a good new plateau. And then we want to see the beef in Bitcoin outperforming. It probably will outperform. It's just a question of getting to that inflection point. And like I said, it's been a good year in the stock market already this year, and it's only two months in. The good news is that this show is so well established that I can confidently say that we'll be here to discuss it, whatever happens at the having and beyond. So I'll take that as a win.

And Mike, I liked your answer. I have no idea. It's the proper answer. It's the correct answer. I didn't put people on the spot. That's the answer that I give when people ask me, I'm like, I, my crystal ball is broken, man. I have no idea.

Guys, that's all we got. We obviously ran over time. It's a holiday. Going to let these gentlemen go enjoy the day. Thank you guys for showing up when you could obviously be doing other things. I mean, James, you woke up early for us on a holiday, nonetheless. We appreciate you guys. I'll, of course, be back tomorrow, guys, 9 a.m. Eastern Standard

Time. See you guys soon. Peace.