The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Will Reach $40,000 This Year, ETF Will Take It To $150,000

Episode Date: August 22, 2023

Sean Farrell, FS Insight's Head of Crypto Strategy, delves into his insights on cryptocurrency trends and offers price predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Meanwhile, Charlie Burton gives an update on his current trading activities. Sean Farrell: https://twitter.com/SeanMFarrell Charlie Burton: https://twitter.com/charliebtrader ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://bit.ly/meld-early-access  ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:40 Bitcoin price prediction 11:50 ETF approval 12:45 BlackRock & Crypto 16:30 Friend.tech 22:40 What if Grayscale does not get the ETF approved 29:00 Binance is selling Bitcoin to support BNB 30:00 Trading with Charlie Burton 33:00 S&P 35:00 Bitcoin 37:30 The buying opportunity is within the next few months 42:50 Is US in a recession? 44:00 Wrap up The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Every Bitcoin halving cycle, we see grand predictions of where price can reach by the end of the next bull market, but we rarely see the big ones during the bear market. Usually, we're talking about how Bitcoin is going to zero, and if it's at 25, it has to go to 15, and when it gets to 15, it has to go to five, and then it has to somehow go negative because people are just that bearish. But in this market, we've had a few people making bold. I put that in quotes because I don't really think that they're that bold, but bold predictions about what's to come. Of course, we had Mark Yusko on last Thursday. He said $150,000 in the next cycle was definitely

possible. And a lot of that was based on Fundstrat's Tom Lee. We'll show you that clip again where he talked about the clearing price after an ETF approval being $150,000 to $180,000. But of course, those insights come from his head of digital assets, which is Sean Farrell, our guest today. We're going to talk about how they got to that number, whether that is realistic, whether we could actually go a lot higher and what happens if a Bitcoin ETF is not approved. And of course, on the back end, we're going to look at some charts and trades with Charlie Burton. This is going to be yet another epic stream. You guys don't want to miss it. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker,

also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel Let's go. friend tech i will inevitably mention that with sean but i did a long write-up on that this morning in the newsletter my unfortunate i'll say experiences with it uh not a believer let's just be honest not a believer in what's happening with friend tech but you'll probably be seeing it all over twitter these days the other thing personally that i have to do today is go watch the florida gator documentary swamp kings on netflix because y'all know i'm a huge gator fan, but I kind of hate Urban Meyer and I have a feeling it's going to paint him in a terrible light. And that's something worth celebrating in my mind. But that's not what you guys are here for to talk about. Let's talk about Bitcoin, ETF approvals, price targets, and more. I've got Sean here from Fundstrat. Sean, how are you, man?

Hey, Scott. Doing well. How are you? I'm doing great. As an adopted Buckeye fan, I would also like to cheat your ear off later about Urban. What's amazing, though, is that this guy won, but has left a path of people who hate him even after he won everywhere he goes. Nobody in Gainesville at the University of Florida likes the guy. Yeah, the feelings are mixed. I think he's still generally liked in Columbus on net,

but there's definitely some mixed feelings. I know kickers for Jacksonville definitely don't like him. Yeah, he did not do too well at the Jags. All I know is that when he was at the University of Florida, and I have to presume this is what the documentary is about, we had the most felony arrests of any program in history. The stories are absolutely out of control. And when he left, he said he was having a mental breakdown mid-season,

quit, destroyed our recruiting for the next 10 years, said he was quitting coaching forever, and then went to Ohio State. As one does. Yes, so we don't like him too much but anyways let's talk about wild bitcoin predictions right first of all let's just go ahead and watch tom once again and we can uh see how we got to this 150 180 number because you are so fearless um where are you on bitcoin by the by the end of next year let's say uh well if the spot bitcoin gets approved yeah i think the demand will be greater than the daily supply of

bitcoin and so the clearing price uh this is done by sean farrell who's our crypto digital strategist is is over 150 000 it could even be like $180,000. But that's only if the spot, only if the ETF gets approved. Yeah, and a spot US because a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved outside US. Okay. But if it's not approved, then are we just lingering around $29,000? There's still upside counts because of the halvening next year.

So you'll have a drop in supply again. So the clearing price has to increase. But it won't be six figures. OK. So he credited you there. So that means that you get to walk us through how you came to this prediction. Indeed.

Well, I guess to start us off, it's worth noting that all models are wrong. Some are informative. And, you know, this is obviously a longer term price model. We have our $40,000 target that we gave in the beginning of the year, still intact for this calendar year. For ETH, we still see that getting up to the high 2000s. But if we want to talk about the price equilibrium model that we put together, it's pretty simple. So if you look at the average block reward over the past 12 months or so, and this analysis was done when we were kind of stuck in that $28,000 to $31,000 range last month. The average daily block reward was around $25 million per day.

It's 900 Bitcoin, give or take. And, you know, since you can assume that price was in equilibrium, there was also at the same time around $25 million in daily supply. Using some historical benchmarks and some assumptions, it's a pretty, I think, reasonable bet to say that the BlackRock ETF could lead to, say, $25 billion, billion with a B in a first year inflows, you know, that compares pretty compares well with the, you know, total AUM of current crypto products, which is about 36 million. The first year for the NASDAQ 100 ETF QQQ, which was around 36 billion. And

so it's, it's not a crazy assumption. You also have Larry Fink, which is going to bring out his marketing team and really push this product on a whole new class of consumers and investors. And so if you take that $25 billion assumption, which I think is pretty conservative, as I mentioned, that equates to about $100 million in daily demand. And so you have, you know, this supply and demand equation, which is out of whack, you have on a USD, on a USD basis, you have about 125 million in daily inflows, and you have 25 million in supply from, from, you know, block rewards. And so obviously, those two numbers are gonna have to meet which leads to our four to five X increase in price

to meet at that equilibrium that equates to about $150,000 per Bitcoin. I love the comments, we get them every time. So here's the 150K, laugh out loud, in your dreams, bro. No way. But right before the stream, I said to you, that doesn't seem like a high target. It seems low, right? Because if we look at previous cycles, and we're only talking about the ETF now, but if you look at just the four-year cycles, if we consider 69,000 the high here, you're talking about simply doubling, which would be a very, very underwhelming

bull market for Bitcoin if it just doubled to high. Yeah, I completely agree. And there are other ways that we can test this. And I mentioned this is a long-term thesis, right? We're looking out to end of next year, you know, after the ETF is launched, you know, assuming it is launched, because who knows what happens these days. You know, there are more timely models we use to give near term price targets. And one model we use is MBRV model. So essentially, we forecast flows into the Bitcoin network using realized cap as a proxy. It's kind of just like the cost basis of the

overall Bitcoin network. And if you look at the last cycle, and then we just capitalize that with a multiple, kind of measuring how frothy the overall market cap is relative to that cost basis. And if you look at the last cycle, you know, we had about 300 to 400 billion in inflows if we use realized cap as a proxy. And then if you capitalize that by the four to five X multiple crypto multiplier that we also calculations. I can walk you through that if you want. That's kind of what brought us to the peak in the last cycle. So if you project that forward and assume that at least $300 to $400 billion in inflows is going to transpire the next cycle, then you start to create a framework for how we can get there pretty easily. I would think we'd get to 150 without an ETF approval,

just based on that. Yeah, frankly, I think I agree with that. I think I agree with that. So I think that it could be much higher. But just to be clear, guys, he is saying by the end of 2024, maybe into 2025, which is how we generally see these cycles. Does that mean though that you are not optimistic that an ETF will get approved

imminently? Obviously, we have the grayscale decision as soon as 1045 AM, although this is like the fifth day that people have been refreshing to see the grayscale opinion that hasn't come. And we have Eric Balchunas and James Seifert at Bloomberg, obviously saying 65% chance of that approval this year. I mean, if this gets approved in October, does that push the model in any way, shape or form? Or is this based on an approval in 2024? Yeah. So that's the thing about timing and it's, you know, why it, you know, it's why we have a service to sell our clients is that, you know, obviously that timeline adjusts on the weekly monthly basis. We like to help people manage timing and, and, you know,

manage risk around these different events. So, you know, our base case, you know, we gave a 70% probability of approval of a spot ETF this calendar year. I think that we gave that about a month and a half ago. And, you know, we're sticking by that. We think that the big catalyst is going to be a grayscale victory over the SEC. And, you know, as you mentioned, that ruling should be imminent I think a lot of people are hoping that ruling comes down today actually at 11 a.m. I know I'm going to be refreshing the Bloomberg

guys Eric and James they're refreshing their Twitters around that time and you know most most people that I speak with are pretty optimistic about Grayscale's chances against the SEC. And I think that would derail a lot of the headwinds facing ETF approval. And so, you know, we think that from a timing perspective, it's probably likely that Grayscale wins. They are forced to reapply. The SEC continues to defer on applications, and then they all get approved at once because I think the last thing that the SEC wants to do

is look like it's playing favorites. Yeah. When I had Mark Yusko on, he's like, no, they'll just play favorites. He was like, October 16th or something, he gave the date. He was like, they'll reject Bitwise so that BlackRock is next in line and the next day they'll approve

a BlackRock ETF but I'm more inclined to believe what you're saying which is that why not right because why not just approve them all if they're materially the same if they have the same surveillance sharing agreements if there's nothing materially different as I said just let them compete

right and let the winner win. BlackRock's going to win. We know that. And I want to go back to something you said at the beginning, which is that the Larry Fink marketing machine will go into effect. It's something I talk about quite a lot and I agree with. BlackRock's not just launching an ETF and hoping that they organically get 100 million in inflows in the first week, right? Even when we had the futures ETF last year, it got a billion in the first 48 hours or so. I have to imagine that BlackRock already has the investors lined up pending an approval. There's just going to be a massive inflow at the very beginning to get that started. Yeah. And I think that's why we were generally pretty constructive as soon as they get what they applied um is uh you know i don't

think blackrock throws just throws stuff at the wall and sees what sticks they definitely had some kind of um not called you know insider baseball but i think they were pretty well informed as pertains to this grayscale case and the probability of of a etf getting across the finish line and you know from a marketing perspective, it's, you know, you saw Larry Fink on CNBC and all the other programs shortly after their application, right? And that was to say, hey, like, we're not just, we're not just, we're not launching this ETF for crypto Twitter, we're launching it for, you know, mom and pop that has their brokerage account, and wants to a, you know, tax efficient, cost efficient way to have exposure to this emerging asset class. So, you know, some of the benchmarks that we're looking at for, you know, what

BlackRock might be targeting for inflows, you know, you look at, you know, 1% of gold market cap, right? That's, you know, you heard Larry on TV talking about how gold, how Bitcoin is this, you know, improved form of gold, it's a digital version of it. You know, if you take 1% of gold market cap, that's, you know, that's 128, $150 billion right there in inflows. You have Larry, if you have Larry, you know, advising a, you know, 50 BIP to 100 BIP allocation in, you know, the average BlackRock portfolio to Bitcoin, just given its, you know, portfolio diversifying effects, that's another $9,200 billion. So there are a lot of ways to benchmark and potentially quantify the BlackRock effect.

But in either way, it's a non-negligible number. I mean, you think about BlackRock and what they've... I mean, they create a whole asset class around 2016, 2017 and ESG. Excuse me. You think about all of the inflows that just from a branding perspective that that captured, just imagine what they could do with an actual pro-ESG asset. I laugh because, you know, they created ESG and the biggest FUD around Bitcoin was the environmental concerns and the impact and we're boiling the oceans and more electricity than the country of Argentina and all the sort of FUD. And then Larry Fink, the king of the environment, comes in and says, Bitcoin ETF, it's cool.

Yeah. Kind of a massive stamp of approval on the electricity FUD, I think. Yeah, you know, in terms of the topic of like the old guard ESG and Bitcoin, I highly recommend people go check out. KPMG actually released a report, the guys over there in the research department, released a report on Bitcoin and how it is actually pro ESG through and through both all ESNG. And I thought it was really good and very refreshing piece of literature coming from an accounting firm that you generally wouldn't associate with innovation. Yeah. Listen, I want to pivot because I mentioned Frentech earlier and a bunch of people were asking

me about it. And I know that maybe this isn't like your core competency when we're talking about Bitcoin predictions. But man, so I was doing a Twitter spaces on it yesterday. So I promised Rand and Mario, who the other spaces hosted, I would sign up so that I, because I knew I was going to probably scream and yell about it. And they wanted me to actually be able to do it from a position of, I guess, knowledge. So as a DYOR, first of all, the process of signing up is horrid. Like, you know, you have to get ETH and then bridge it to base and then send it to there. But what's crazy is there's no terms and conditions.

There's no privacy policies, anything. It's like connect your Twitter account, and all of a sudden you're minted, and bots just start pumping the crap out of your quote-unquote shares, which they have renamed keys now because, you know, if you rename it, Gary Genzer won't be in the security. So I basically securitized myself apparently. And I don't understand. I just don't get it. I was in there. People were like, you add value and you pump your share.

First of all, if you're doing that, you're promoting probably an unregistered security and therefore are in violation of securities laws. If you compel people, that's very definition is if someone expects, has an expectation of profit because of a promoter or a marketer, but it's like a one-way chat where nobody can see each other's things and you're responding that doesn't work 50% of the time. So what people are doing is like buybacks. Okay. That's pumping the price. That's probably not okay. I don't even know what else they're doing. Giveaways, but you give away a thousand and then you make three or 4,000 on fees. That's just basically a way to enrich yourself. So I don't get it. Is this just another stupid attempt for people to grab cash really fast and move on to the next thing in the bear market?

It's probably a little bit of both, right? So I guess full disclosure, I haven't tried it. I haven't completely on board it myself. I will say real quick off the bat, well, I got, you know, I have the invite code. I just have to bridge some, some ETH over and get started. You know, I will say first thing first the one thing i noticed which is very interesting and maybe not exactly what you wanted to talk about but i thought it was interesting that it launches a web app right so um instead of going through the apple store and and yeah you know paying a 30 tax to and i think this was part of the reason why the onboarding wasn't as seamless as maybe you expected. You know, you had to go to the website in your Safari browser and, you know, save the app to your home screen.

And it was basically just a highly performant web app. And, you know, from there, the experience is actually pretty akin to a normal Apple Store application. So I thought it was a very creative way to get around those guardrails. Yeah, but let's be honest, Apple doesn't even allow platforms that have like simple tipping in crypto, right?

They're not going to allow something like this as a money grab where the platform is making 5% transaction fees. the influencer person who mints themselves making 5% fees and Apple gets nothing. This will never be on Google Play or the App Store. Yeah. And I think you'll see a lot more of that. From like an application perspective, I think, you know, it's kind of been tried before. You know, we've had big clout in a couple of other social token type applications. And by and large, they haven't worked for the same reason, mostly because, you know, it's obviously highly speculative.

It's tough to create a differentiated experience. Even if you have like a private chat room for, you know, a select number of, you know, key holders over a long term. And so, you know, as prices gone down, these apps have kind of like fizzled out. And so I question the sustainability and longevity of this app. But, you know, I'm pretty pro pro speculation. I'm pro, you know, iterating and finding something that works. But I'll probably try it. Maybe my opinion will change. I give it like a 1% chance of success. I think that most people on there are farming transactions so they can eventually get this mythical airdrop.

And then it all goes to zero within like a month after that. Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but like going through the process and seeing the bots pump it up. And then like if the pitch is that somebody gets access to you, I don't know, man, just use Discord or something and charge people 50 bucks. Or like, listen, you guys, you're a research cup. Like you provide research for a fee, right? Isn't that access to the brain of Fundstrat?

Isn't that the entire point? This is not getting you that. Yeah, I think the use case is probably less for services and more for like IP, right? And investing in like a future stream of cash flows. So like if you had like an artist and there are some like NFT projects that are working on this, if you have like an artist that is early, excuse me, if you have an artist that's early and you know,

you're the first person that reads their work or listens to their music or what have you, you know, that's, I guess a use case where you invest in their personhood, their IP early on, and then over time you create a mechanism to share in earnings. I agree with that via NFTs, but that's not what's happening here. None of the value accrues to the actual social token. So it's like you could read my thing, but you don't get a piece of it.

You just get a piece of my shares, which are based on speculation entirely. So that's just the perception of the market. I agree with you that that's one of the most compelling use cases of these things. It just doesn't work in this case at all to me. But I'm really actually curious to hear what you say after you onboard and try it out. I will report back. Yeah, please do. Going back to the ETFs, we talked about if Grayscale wins and there's this assumption that Grayscale wins, A, what if they lose? And B, what if they win but the secondary effect of that is that futures ETFs are removed, which some people fear? Yeah. Certainly anything is possible. I think one, if Grayscale doesn't win,

that doesn't completely negate the likelihood of ETF approval. I think there's still a good possibility that we get one across the finish line, and probably incrementally reduce our probability from 75% to say like 50%. But on your second point, in terms of rescinding the futures base ETF, anything is possible. I wouldn't put anything past this current SEC or, yeah, I wouldn't put anything past the current SEC. But, you know, I don't foresee that happening in that case. You know, you would have a situation where they're actively hurting investors by doing that. And it would just be a bizarre thing to do and would likely result in some kind of public revolt, I think. So I don't see that as a highly probable

event. If the next cycle high in Bitcoin is, let's call it 150 to 180, conservatively, where does that put Ethereum? Do you think that Ethereum performs in parallel? Or do you think that actually it has more upside in these cycles, as we've often seen in the past? Yeah. So I mean, relative to, you know, I don't think we don't subscribe to the flippening thesis. We still think most capital is going to onboard into the crypto ecosystem through Bitcoin. I also think that, and to be clear, we're constructive on ETH.

I think it will perform very well over the next cycle. You know, we haven't put out any price targets, but, you know, top of my head, I don't think I don't think 10 to 15K is too unreasonable of a target, long term target. The interesting thing, the one thing that ETH has going against it is from a Flows perspective, is that, that you know in prior cycles if you wanted to invest in ethereum beneath the platform the network you just bought eth um now with layer two networks rolling out and people moving commerce and activity to these layer two networks

a lot of activity i think and a lot of demand a lot of flows are going to go to both eath right but as well but they're also going to go to these layer 2 tokens so i could see a world in which eth does very well right but you have to look at ethan like like a basket right so you have to buy eath you have to buy um ethan all of the scaling layers about it. Does that make sense? Yeah, that makes perfect sense. It's not just ETH anymore. It's the entire ETH ecosystem

and everything that goes into that. So a lot of that could accrue to the layer twos and other things. Sean, man, thank you so much for your perspective. We all want 180,000 Bitcoin. I think 225. I'm throwing it out there right now.

225. They're not going to put me on CNBC to talk about it. I said it on Tuesday, August 22nd at 9.29. But if they reject Grayscale in an hour and a half, I want to rescind it. Deal. Thank you so much, everybody. You can follow

Sean down in the description as his Twitter name and obviously check out everything Funstrat's doing, because I know that you guys are highly, highly touted and respected and a lot of incredible insight coming from you guys. Thank you, man. Thanks, Scott. Yeah, I'll take 225.

Honestly, I'm going to be honest. If you guys remember, I was saying 235 in the last cycle, but not for this cycle, for the last cycle. So maybe take my wild predictions with a grain of salt and his and everyone else's as well. But now we don't need to speculate based on ETF approvals and news and the law and all of these things. We can just take a look at the charts and try to figure it out. And I'm really interested in today's second guest, Charlie Burton's take on

what's happening because that Bitcoin drop, which happened in a matter of like 15 minutes, basically caught a lot of people by surprise. And now it seems like we're just kind of a slightly bouncing ball there on support. So I'm curious to see if he thinks that we do the Bark Simpson and head back up, or if we're just waiting here and bearishly consolidating for another leg down. Charlie, what's up, man? How are you today? I'm very good. And you know what the answer is going to be. You know I'm going to be bearish. Should you? We haven't always been bearish, though.

I think you have to be inclined to be short-term bearish right i mean you have a very clear move the market told you support broke in that area was rejected but we see these moves i you know i kind of drew this earlier as a joke but we see these moves where you just pull the bart simpson here you know the parts there and then it just goes right back up because if this was some, I'm not saying that will happen by the way, but if this was some sort of technical move, we had Dave Weisberger on yesterday. He explained how he dug pretty deep into it. It was one massive spot seller at OKEx who sold a massive position in five minutes, caused a liquidation cascade, was probably short with leverage, made a whole ton of money and done. Right. I mean, this wasn't, uh, there

was no news as we like everyone talking about SpaceX and all these things. Yeah. I don't think that's what happened. What did, what's your take? Um, well, I heard that it was, um, it was, um, CZ having to sell because, um, he needed to show up his BNP. So do we think that that's the case? I mean, the BN, BNB is, I don't know if you have a BNB chart that you'd want to share. I have one, but it is struggle fest. It's sitting right there also on probably the most key support on the chart in my mind. But if you bring up your chart, we can take a look at that. Yeah. I mean, that's all I heard was, let's get the chart up. Yeah. Once you bring yours up, I got mine. I got mine

here. And you can see, I mean, it's kind of nonsense to call this a range from 692 all the way down to 211, but it sort of is. And you had a bear flag that was very clear here, a breakdown of that. And now you're potentially losing that range. And a lot of people saying that if you dig into the actual fundamentals, that there's some massive loans that are getting liquidated here. So to your point, the rumor, which I cannot substantiate, I would not ever say is true, is that basically Binance is selling their Bitcoin to buy BNB to defend this so that they don't collapse.

Yep. And it could well be that that level, because the rumor was it was around about, what, 209 to 10? Which morning is what people were saying. Yeah, it was come down to 209. Yeah, yeah. So it was 220, but now that it's just kind of hanging out at 209 and didn't go down 50% as people predicted, now it's 210, right?

Yeah. Yeah. So anyway, that's the only story, so to speak, the one that I'm sort of pitching there for a bit of fun. But I think coming back to Bitcoin then, I'm looking at Bitcoin. When I was last on, which was only a couple of weeks ago, I did mention this 24,000 level. This is a weekly chart of Bitcoin.

There's been a bit of a divergence just on a straightforward MACD down the bottom here, been a bit of a divergence just on a straightforward MACD down the bottom here. Been a bit of a divergence there on the weekly. Usually if I get a divergence coming in and price starts reacting, I would expect it to come down to a black moving average, just a straight 50 period moving average on there. Very often it will revert to the mean, to the average, to the 50. So that the 50 so that 50 fun enough is down at that 24 000 mark so we're there or thereabouts scott as far as what you're looking at there and overall i still for the longer term i'm you know i'm a bull as well so um i thought it might have gone a couple of months ago and started to have it creep up a little bit more then. But it ran out of gas, didn't it?

But I do think that to a large extent, do you think it's going to be impacted by the whole risk on risk off thing? So I'm still looking at the equity markets and what they're doing. And if they remain soft, I know they're bouncing in the last couple of days, but if they remain soft, then how much is Bitcoin going to be going up whilst they're struggling a little bit? I mean, they've correlated for quite a long time here, but we all know that if there's a major credit event or something where it really goes risk off, that Bitcoin is going to dump with everything else because they always all go to one. I mean, if you believe that it's going to trade like everything else because they always all go to one. I mean, if you believe that it's going to trade like a risk asset, I mean, you got to be looking here. This is 10-year treasury's yield. I mean, breaking out over a high, I mean, we're talking about decades highs here and certainly the high from last year already at 4.346. It broke it. It's kind of retested it. Not the most convincing, but if yields are going to keep ripping here, I mean, that's really bad for banks. It's really bad. I mean, it's just

really bad for stocks, really bad for the economy in general. I mean, I still think that for now, stocks have somewhat topped, but I could definitely be convinced otherwise. Yeah. I mean, I certainly, for the time being, whereas seasonally, we talked about this a couple of weeks ago, seasonally, it's not the best time, is it? September, isn't September the worst? Worst month for Bitcoin, you know, 80% of the years or something. Everyone thinks it's October, but it's not. It's September. So, yes, I'm still looking at the stock market.

I know they're bouncing a bit. If I just bring the S&P up, bouncing a bit the last couple of days, but I'm still looking for a bit more to the downside over the next four to six weeks, taking us into October. So if we are going to be seeing that, I'm not seeing Bitcoin accelerating away. But at the same time, before we know it, we're getting into November and a seasonally stronger period for stocks at that time of year. And if we do turn up, if they all live some butts at the moment, if we do turn up from then, if firstly, if I'd like to see the stock market come down a little bit more, first of all, if we then can have a bit of a clear out there, actually see some signs of pessimism. I know that's been doing the rounds, but these zero days to expiry options are just crazy. I've never heard of

that stuff over here in the UK. Can you talk about it a bit more? Sorry, I haven't even looked into that actually. Right. So that's been doing the rounds. Goldman printed it about a week or so ago. So it's options traders who they're not even trading front month options anymore. They're trading front day options. So it's like Bitcoin perp swaps. Yeah. It's like Bitcoin perpetual swaps now for options. Yeah. Yeah. So it's just highly speculative. And we were talking about this a couple of weeks ago about the speculation out there in the options arena. And then to hear that sort of activity that's going on

just still says to me that that's a very highly speculative thing, the activity that's going on, and we need to see that crumble a little bit. And it's not just yet. So it still gives me some concerns when you're seeing that sort of trading going on, people thinking that they're going to be able to make money by the end of the day just on options that expire

at the end of each day. So I don't know what your thoughts are on that, but that's concerning. Yeah, you're looking at the daily SPX there, right? Yes. Yeah, I have effectively the same one. You can see just because we were talking about the 50 MA there on Bitcoin, the SPX kind of led there. It's already broke that daily 50. I don't know if you use the 200, but that's down around 4, 4, 4, 1 34. I think that could be, and that's kind of this entire area as well, where you've seen tons of price action. Yeah. So like, if I think if we, I don't think, I don't know, I don't think we're going great depression 3000 as some of my other guests have been saying over and over again, but that's the

kind of correction I would really like to see, uh, to convince me that, uh, you know, things are normalizing a bit. Yeah, exactly. And I'll take the other side of their bets if we can come down a little bit more first, though. So, yeah, I'm still looking to get on the long side at some point in the months ahead. I think there could be an opportunity there. So, yeah. And that then leads back into Bitcoin. And so yeah, you know, for 2024, we talked about this before, certainly for 2024, I'm interested. I saw your post talking about 40, is it possible to go to 40,000 by the year end? Yeah, I mean, that that was based on the previous guest, Sean, he's the head of digital assets at Fundstrat with Tom Lee, and that's been their roadshow, $150,000 next cycle

based on a spot ETF approval and $40,000 this cycle. I mean, up to $40,000 this year would be totally normal for a cycle, but I also think that down to $20,000 is part of that cycle. So good luck figuring out which of those we hit or when, if both. Yeah. I i mean i would like to think the low 20s said at 24 000 could hold that sort of area um low 20s could hold actually um and the usual thing like you've said flip flop along bore a few people out and then it catches people off guard and it snuck its way back and all of a sudden we're back up at 32. And away it goes. So but yeah, I still think that's going to take a little bit of time, maybe towards the very back end of the year. Yeah, I mean, we talked about sort of how September is the worst month, but I can only

speak anecdotally. But the last time we absolutely rocketed after sort of some depression was literally October 1. Now I need to go find it, but October became sort of a meme in the crypto space because October has performed well. It must have been two years ago. I'm now looking for it on the chart because, yeah, it was right somewhere in here. But that was the meteoric rise, I think, from like 10,000 all the way up to 65, basically sparked right at the beginning of October with prices at 10. So we do have that sort of terrible seasonality in September, but as you said, this really kind

of favorable fall for all markets, you know, Santa Claus rallies and all those things. So I I'm not so pessimistic. I just think that, uh, you know, there will be shakeouts along the way because we don't get to the having and see these massive new highs without basically everyone on both sides getting liquidated first. Yeah. I mean, what I'm hearing is that we could be looking at the middle of next year before some of these ETFs get real approval. I don't know what your view is on that. So we could still be a while off, but we'll sneak our way up there. And like you're saying, then before you know it, people will be thinking, I'll buy the dip and then the dip doesn't come. I think the buying opportunity is over this next few months. Yeah. And I found it on the chart. It was, this is, you know, you had like the move all

the way up from the threes or whatever to like 13,000 in 2021, yet another boring summer. September started literally right here, massively down in September. And then the October 1st day was this low right here. And then literally straight to 65,000 in a matter of months. Yeah. Not saying that a history will repeat itself, but we have this, do have this history of the terrible September being kind of a fake out and then October is going up. So that gives us something I think at least to look forward to. But what do you think about the dollar here? I mean, that's obviously the wild card that could wreck the party depending on how things go. Well um looking at those yields coming back to what you said about

those 10-year yields why it's so important to be watching those on my daily chart here of the 10 year let's take this to a daily daily chart here a bit of a channel going on quite tight on this channel but as we can see you know yields ripping as we speak. They were down earlier today. What I thought was interesting yesterday, the dollar was down yesterday, even though those yields were higher, but it seems to have got back to normality here today. We're breaching- Dollar's ripping too. Yeah. Sorry?

Dollar's kind of starting to push again too. It is, yeah, this afternoon. Flip the 200 MA on the daily as well, looking at it. So when you see these sort of breaches, it's breaching these 10-year yields, and this is all linked to the dollar, of course, breaching those highs from last year. Of course, people are going to start looking at, what, 4.5% is the next level. People are naturally going to start to gravitate towards.

This all should still act as an overall tailwind to the dollar. And as you know, I've been very active in the euro dollar. So the last few times I've been on, I've been talking about these ranges for the year. And so the euro dollar, the dollar index, they've actually had quite suppressed ranges for the year. So the euro dollar has only done, what, barely 800 pips the on the year and it's about mid-range as we speak so it's either got a breach 105 or go back up and and fire north of 113 so at the moment with the way that the dollar is um geared up here we could see the potentials to see the euro certainly getting lower here and the dollar itself, the dollar index pushing higher for the certainly for the next month to two months. Sounds like there's not much to do right now, but see where these things shake out. I think we kind of talked about that last time, too.

It feels like we had the big, I'm not going to say obvious, but we had the big trade already for the year. And now we need to wait for it to really choose direction to get back in on a meaningful trend. You and I were shorting when I was last on back up here in this sort of zone. I think it was when the S&P was up here. It's just a standard channel. I love trading off of channels like you do, standard basic technicals. And you're right. The trades in the main are on. I'm just waiting to see the S&P,

if the S&P is going to roll over further. And likewise, coming back to the dollar, we're already seeing the dollar really take front stage here again this afternoon, really coming roaring back here. So, yeah, I'm looking for that euro down back towards those those may may or late may and early june lows is the next levels really i'm looking for so 107 there for the euro certainly in the first at that first instance and then we'll just have to gauge where we're at that stage we got china and what's going on over there so is this is this these 10

year yields as a result of all their treasury selling that we've got going on there? But certainly, for the time being, the dollar is on the front foot. We've got PMIs out of Europe tomorrow, PMIs out of the U.S. tomorrow. It's a lot. And everybody else. It's my favorite meme in my mind. It's like, will we end up going into a recession and pricing that in and soft landing and hard landing? And it's so stupidly United States focused when the rest of the world's effectively already

in a recession. Yeah. It's like we talk about, will we go into a recession? And you look and half the countries on the planet and all of Europe are in a recession already. So yeah, to some degree or, 100%. And so those PMIs will be another indication of that tomorrow. And so at the moment, we said this two weeks ago, where are you going to put your money? Are you going to put it in dollars or are you going to

put it in euros? And you start to weigh it all up. And I know that a lot of Americans worry about the US going into a recession. Like you've just said, well, Europe is practically there. Many of the country economies are. And if you want to park your money somewhere, where are you going to put it? Probably still going to be the dollar for the time being. Yeah, and not only the dollar, but as Mike McGlone likes to say on Mondays, just put it in short-term treasuries. Get your 5%, you know, and keep moving on from there.

If you're in the United States right now, you could literally just get 10% over the next two years, wait this all out, have a big stack of cash if you think things are actually going to go down. Of course, you then risk things going up and missing that move, but at least you got your 10%. I mean, talking about the recession, I had just seen this this morning. Let me see here. Majority of small businesses believe US is in recession, right? So it kind of doesn't really matter what the metrics are, how they redefine it on any given day. The people here feel like it is. And then if we want to talk about the actual world and news that could rock things, we have the BRICS leaders meeting in South Africa. I'm sort of dismissive of BRICS. We're about to do

a Twitter spaces on it in 30 minutes. But there's a lot going on. There's a lot of pushback against the United States and the United States dollar. I think that's probably a slightly longer term. Yeah. And a lot of us are in agreement on that, but not in the short term right now. So that might create day-to-day, week-to-week, a little bit of volatility. But the main story at the moment, I still think is, for the time being, is the dollar. And don't get me wrong, I am looking for that, that this dollar strength that we're seeing right now to dissipate in the next couple of months or so. But for the time being, any shorter term traders, then I'd still be weighing in on the dollar at the moment. Yeah, man, I appreciate that. So where can, uh, I, I haven't asked you in a while, you have a trade, a place that people can learn to trade

from you and follow you. Yeah. Um, charlieburtontrading.com check me out over there. You can, um, I, we have an email list. You can go onto the email list and check out all the resources on there. And of course I do have a, uh, a YouTube channel, Twitter, uh, all the usual stuff, Charlie Burton Trading. I put a couple of videos out a week on YouTube. But most of my time I'm spent in an online trading room with my traders. So I don't get a chance to do too much social media content. That's where the real value is, though.

So I think that's fine. That's probably the people would rather you be in there trading with them than out here making wild predictions on Bitcoin like the rest of us. It's a bit of fun. But someone asked me last year, Alessio Rustani, who I think you've met before, asked me if I would eat my hat if Bitcoin went to $100,000 last year. Fortunately, I didn't have to because I said I don't see it going next year. But 2024, who knows? Yeah, I'll take it. All right, man,

Charlie, thank you so much. Always a pleasure to have you on. I'm sure we'll see you back in the next couple of weeks. Thanks for having me on. Good trading day, man. All right, guys, that was awesome. Really great perspective there and generally well aligned, which is nice. I really don't think, guys, it's so funny. I posted on Twitter and it's like, go back to DJing bro. 150,000. You're smoking crack. The more people say that to me,

the more I'm convinced that we're going there. I just hope that my friend tech doesn't go there with us. As I said, we're doing a bricks focused Twitter spaces in about 30 minutes. You guys can come check that out. Going to be awesome. I will see you tomorrow for yet another YouTubing experience. Bye.