The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin’s 11-Month Correction Could FINALLY Be Ending

Episode Date: August 19, 2026

Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its 11-month correction, with VanEck flagging multiple capitulation signals and ETF inflows starting to improve. At the same time, the SEC is moving ahead with a majo...r new crypto fundraising framework even as the CLARITY Act remains uncertain. We also cover the explosion in RWA and pre-IPO trading, Unitree’s massive debut, and Citi’s push into institutional Bitcoin custody as TradFi continues moving deeper into crypto. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 According to Van Eck, Bitcoin's 11-month correction could finally be ending eight of their 12 capitulation signals are currently firing and all 12 of them have fired at some point in the last few months. Of course, many people looking at the four-year cycle and thinking that this could be the summer doldrums of capitulation before we inevitably get a rise into the fall. We will talk about that, but we've got much more important and interesting things to talk about today. And we have a very, very, very, very, very, very special guests, we have Aero Guse, CEO of OKX Europe. We're going to talk about all that and more right now. Good morning, everybody. Happy Wednesday and welcome to the show.
Starting point is 00:00:58 So before I bring Aerold on today, there are one of two things that I wanted to cover on my own. The first one, and I would love to get his take on how this compares to what's happening in Europe when I'm done, of course, is the big news today, yesterday. breaking U.S. SEC proposes first major crypto rule in surprise announcement. So this is very interesting because there was supposed to be a meeting about this Friday for them to vote. They canceled the meeting. They did not reschedule it. People thought it was dead in the water. And then surprise, Paul Atkins and Hester Perce and the SEC Commission dropped regulation crypto, which the industry has long been waiting for. This is their regulatory rulemaking, not to be confused with actual law. And Atkins himself said that if we don't get the Clarity Act or don't get
Starting point is 00:01:46 some law around this, that another SEC in the future obviously could reverse this rulemaking. So important to know that that doesn't make this law perpetually. But we have finally some rules being proposed now on how a company in the United States can launch a token, how it can become sufficiently decentralized to not be a security in a four-year period of safe harbor, which Hester has been floating now for years and some other things. So first of all, you know, we have a giant step forward with SEC's launch of reg crypto. For years, crypto builders were told to come in and register.
Starting point is 00:02:23 The problem was that there was no door designed for how crypto networks actually developed. Very interesting take year. We all remember the Gensler years when he said, come in register. And if you came in and registered, you got sued with no explanation, right? This happened to multiple people. Most famously, Jeremy Kaufman over at Lerner, library tried to come in and register, and then when you make a proposal to the SEC,
Starting point is 00:02:44 you actually get sued. But here's actually what's in this proposal. SEC issues crypto asset regulatory proposal, proposal letting crypto project sell tokens to retail investors. SEC plan could revive ICO style fundraising U.S. Crypto startups, this is where this one gets me. Crypto startups could raise up to $5 million without full SEC registration or investor cap. So I wrote a whole newsletter on this this morning. This is actually wild when you think about it because we have very strict accredited investor laws in the United States that define who can invest in what and how they can do it. And this completely skirts them. So we have crowdfunding, which there's some precedent, but this is much looser than crowdfunding. Basically,
Starting point is 00:03:27 I can go to four of my friends, accredited or otherwise, raise up to $5 million, then I have four years to do something. And this is all based on me just simply submitting a white paper and not having to actually submit any financials or anything throughout that four-year period. So this is much looser fundraising. Like, I can actually invest in a token launch now, easier than I can invest in my friend's coffee shop. Right. So this is a pretty aggressive proposal. The SEC plan would allow public token sales without rule-based resale restrictions. There you go. Larger crypto projects could raise up to 75 million a year. There will be disclosures and filings required with that. And of course, maybe most importantly, the SEC proposes legal path for tokens to leave investment contract regime.
Starting point is 00:04:12 And that is what I was talking about. You basically have a four-year safe harbor where if you reach certain benchmarks, you no longer are a security. You're sufficiently decentralized. It's not an investment contract. And you can move on. So this is the first major regulatory rulemaking being proposed. It's not official.
Starting point is 00:04:29 I think there's a 60-day period here where people will be able to launch tokens in the United States. And now I want to bring on Erald, not specifically to discuss. us what's happening with reg crypto, but to talk about how far ahead Europe is. Right. Good morning, Aaron. How are you, man? Hey, morning, Scott. Yes, good afternoon for you. I wore my OKX t-shirt in celebration of our... It looks really good on you. Thank you. I think it's great, to be honest. I really like this t-shirt. So it's interesting that, you know, people say the United States is supposed to be leading. We're going to be the crypto capital of the world. Meanwhile, in Europe, you guys have had, you know, we call it Mika because we pronounce things wrong, but I believe you call it Micah.
Starting point is 00:05:07 We've had Micah proposed and basically voted on years ago and now actually in action, and we're still talking about a Clarity Act over here and a new action from the SEC. So maybe you can set the table as to where Europe stands right now in this sort of process of getting Micah going. Absolutely. So in Europe, right, like when we're talking about Europe in this context, we're talking about the EEA, which stands for the European economical area. Why is that particularly important? Because Europe as a continent is much larger.
Starting point is 00:05:43 The EEA comprises of 30 countries in Europe, which have one specific commonality, is that laws and regulation, particularly financial laws and regulations, they can be passported throughout that whole jurisdiction, meaning that if you have a license, a financial license in one of those member states, you can freely passport the right of that license to all those other 30 EEA member states.
Starting point is 00:06:09 So that is what we're talking about in Europe as the geographical scope, right? It's not the EU, it's not Europe as a continent, it's that EEA component. So before MECA or MICA, however we want to call it, came into effect, some of the more progressive financial regulation bodies in Europe, Europe, they already had a local, national crypto regulation, right? They were not always very much aligned with each other. Some countries or some member states were already proactive and they already had the crypto regulation in place.
Starting point is 00:06:46 Other ones, they didn't recognize it yet. Then the European Commission, the European Union, they said, like, look, we need to change that, right? We are the European economical area. There is a freedom of movement of goods and services. we need to make sure that equal to a bank license or a securities license or a payment institution license, we need to make sure that we come up with a regulation around crypto that also allows, you know, passporting throughout a whole European economical area.
Starting point is 00:07:19 That is precisely mica, right? So now since 1st of January 2005, that mica license is into effect in the whole European. economical area, meaning you can now apply in one member state for a mica license or a mica license and then operate throughout a whole European Union. What followed was a grandfathering period by which, if you want to continue operating in Europe, you need to have the license by July 1st, 2026. So that was a little bit of a grandfathering period in which they allow existing participants in this crypto space to be.
Starting point is 00:08:00 get that license. So it was like a year and a half, 18 months in which participants could apply for that license. Now, on the 1st of July, a month and a half ago, that deadline expired. So now everybody who does not have that mica or Mika license will need to stop operations in Europe. That has, of course, tectonic shifts that resulted out of this in Europe because the biggest player in crypto finance. They were not able to secure that MICA license. There were also many other offshore exchanges that didn't even bother to get the MICA license because they know that they were not going to get it. Some of them they also couldn't bear the financial cost because, Scott, like getting such a license like this, it's a heavy financial undertaking. You need to
Starting point is 00:08:55 employ a lot of specialized people. You need to work with law firms. You need to get a whole compliance and risk infrastructure in place. You have to make sure you have the proper setup for your cold and hot wallets. So it's a pretty complex setup that you have to comply with. So it was around, I think, 80% of the active crypto companies that were before Maika present and active in Europe that had to stop after the 1st of July. The estimate I saw was 1,300, yeah, the estimate I saw just, sorry to interrupt, it was 1,343 crypto service providers were there before, and 281 managed to come through.
Starting point is 00:09:39 So, 21% is the number that I saw publicly advertised. It's obviously the biggest, but you're still talking about, you know, 1,200 or 1100 other entities that were operating loosely and now are not. Absolutely. Tectonic shifts that happened. a lot of people had to move their assets off those unregulated exchanges because that was the first thing. It was just like the 1st of July that the deadline passed. In the run-up to that deadline at OKX because we're fully licensed and regulated,
Starting point is 00:10:12 we saw massive inflows in terms of new user signups, AUM, assets under management, record numbers, day over day. So in that sense, it's been quite intense for us in the last few months. But then the following step was that some of the app stores, they also start banning the exchanges who didn't pass the mica test, who didn't get the mica license, and they have now been or being removed from some of the app stores. So that is something that people feel much more actively, that they cannot download.
Starting point is 00:10:51 updates for their app anymore. Nobody can download some of those unregulated apps anymore in Europe. So that is indeed very, very impactful. When that started to happen, we saw a second wave of inflows in OPEX in Europe. So now also, we believe that over the next few weeks or months, more and more of those unregulated apps are going to be blocked, not only from the app store, but what we know from also talking with some of the regulators,
Starting point is 00:11:21 they would also start looking into blocking URLs to those websites from unregulated exchanges. So initially I was a little bit worried that Mika or Mika would just be a paper tiger, right? Here is the law, here is the regulation, but no effect, right? Contrary to what we see in the U.S. with previous sec, there were quite heavy enforcements happening. It's the first time now that we see in Europe that also the regulators in Europe don't only consider this as, you know, A paper, its actual heavy enforcement on unregulated exchanges that is currently taking place. It's interesting because one of the biggest stories of the past few weeks was this one right here. Sorry, let me show that.
Starting point is 00:12:05 You know, sex volumes hit 32-month low while Dex spot market share reaches all-time high. So when you're actually dig into these numbers, by the way, both are down. It's just that Dexes are down less and therefore have a larger share. But it's interesting because this is clearly not a trend that you're specifically seeing OKX Europe, because of Micah, you're seeing inflows, you're seeing a lot of people coming in, even though volumes are down worldwide. Is that accurate?
Starting point is 00:12:29 That is accurate. The massive inflow that we've seen over the last few months is unprecedented. I think, I mean, it's probably quite obvious, right? Like if 80% of the unregulated exchanges in Europe have to stop operations, that those user base and those assets, they need to go somewhere, right?
Starting point is 00:12:50 They can go or offshore, like to Dexas or to cold wallets or hardware wallets, or they can go to centralized exchanges that have a license following also some of the questions that recently raised with security around hardware wallets. I think people also got a little bit more like concerned about doxing, about, you know, lack of encryption on some of those hardware wallets. and we've seen massive, massive inflows in terms of signups and also AUM. Yeah, that all makes sense. So it's bright pastures for those who were compliant and had their house in order in Europe, basically.
Starting point is 00:13:31 Absolutely. Absolutely. I have not. Interestingly, you know, we talk about the Clarity Act here. I think we've basically handicapped it down to almost zero at this point that it gets passed anytime soon. And you already have Micah installed and are working on Micah 2.0. Right. I mean, the European has already identified what they like and don't like about the first iteration and are moving on.
Starting point is 00:13:53 So we're way behind here. Exactly. So the thing is, Micah 2.0 is now already in the making by the lawmakers in Europe. Recently, what the European Commission has done, and they send out a questionnaire to all the market participants. They have sent out a questionnaire to crypto enthusiasts, to, get their feedback about how has Micah been? How does it work for you? Right?
Starting point is 00:14:22 Like, what do you want to see? Where are the shortcomings? So that consultation round has now, is, will now soon close. Then we expect that also the lawmakers will look into the findings and on all the opinions from that circular and then start drafting Micah 2.0. What we already know is that Micah 2.0 is going to be focusing on decentralized finance, What are the entry criteria into it? Do you need to have like a KYC?
Starting point is 00:14:52 When is something considered truly decentralized, right? If you have a server running in your premises and you have control over everything, is it then albeit still decentralized, right? Like that's the first conceptual question that lawmakers will need to think about is where does DFI start, where does CFI begin, right? Like when is there truly, truly decentralization happening?
Starting point is 00:15:19 So this is something that we expect to come out in Europe over the next two years. I believe that Micah 2.0 is going to start taking effect. And let's see how it will shape up. I also think that European lawmakers will now be a little bit more, how to call it, sensitive about the competition with the US right now, because now I think also with the sect where they said that they really want to bring crypto innovation back to the US or keep it in the US. We need to make sure that in terms of territorial integrity and that we don't overregulate things in Europe
Starting point is 00:16:00 because else I believe that there might be a significant shift of innovation and capital going to the US, which is now seeming to embrace crypto innovation and, crypto and blockchain development. So I think in that sense I'm also quite happy with the positive developments that are now happening in Europe so that there is also like a little bit of competition on the legislative side between US and Europe in not over-regulating because, you know, there is like a lot of employment, there's a lot of brain, there's a lot of tax income that comes with this industry. So we need to make sure that there's like a right balance between some of the bigger economies globally.
Starting point is 00:16:42 Yeah, I mean, a few years ago it felt like we were going to have a race to stricter and more unreasonable regulation. And now there's this sort of regulatory arbitrage where countries and sectors are trying to woo the industry. So they're actually loosening up a bit, which is what we're seeing with this regulation crypto, I think, from the SEC in the United States. I mean, this couldn't be further 100 degrees from what we had the previous administration. Like I said, you come in and register and they sue you. now you don't even need to come and register. You can basically just send a note and launch a project. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:16 Very positive developments that we see now on the other side of the Atlantic. Yeah. So more interestingly, I think, I would like to talk about what you're actually seeing on the ground in Europe. What trading behaviors? What are users looking for? I mean, we're in this kind of
Starting point is 00:17:32 a very strange time in crypto. I think everyone agrees, right? I think Bitcoin has kind of flown the coop, everybody. It's got its narrative. But then, you know, we've kind of have the plurfer. of mean coins and then as I said maybe a trend towards dex's and decentralization but okayX has long been ahead of the on the web three side anyways so you have both offerings just uh what are European traders actually doing what are they looking for what are they asking for from okayX a very interesting development that we are now seeing in Europe is that more of the traditional
Starting point is 00:18:00 finance players banks etc that they're also now more actively dipping their toe and actively doing developments on crypto on the blockchain. If you now look into some of the job portals like LinkedIn, a lot of the traditional banks, the brick and mortar banks, they have job openings for people with blockchain expertise or with blockchain knowledge. You see all those traditional stock brokers, they're now also offering crypto. So we can clearly see that there is this divergence happening, right? Like that test phase, like, hey, let's see. where it's going or being rather negative against blockchain technology and crypto, in Europe it's definitely over. Banks are fully embracing the technology, and most of the banks in Europe
Starting point is 00:18:48 are already offering packages or bundles or parts of crypto assets offering to all their users or to a select VIP level of consumers. So in that sense, we see like a big convergence happening. also the traditional crypto players who are now also starting to offer tokenized stock. So I think with that convergence, there will be more something in the near future where it's like this all-in-one financial app where you can go for to pay and to get paid.
Starting point is 00:19:18 You want to pay your friends. You want to receive your salary. You want to pay in a grocery shop. You want to go to your Starbucks and pay for your coffee. You want to also accrue wealth. What can you do on accrued wealth? Investing. There is like different types of investment strategies.
Starting point is 00:19:31 You can invest in crypto. You can buy bonds, you can buy stocks. So that is like a use case for accruing wealth. The third use case in all the financial needs that people have is borrowing and lending. This is still something in Europe that is quite uniquely positioned with credit institutions, the banks. But I also hope that maybe in one of the upcoming crypto regulations, that regulators will also open the door for crypto companies to start offering mortgages or do borrowing and lending.
Starting point is 00:20:04 So those are the evolutions that I really would like to see from a regulatory point of view so that regulators consider it more as how can users the ultimate consumer benefit from having their assets in the product. And then I think like those three financial needs to pay to get pay, accrue wealth and lending and borrowing, all in one super app that would be magnificent. Right now what we see in Europe is the market is, the market is. relatively, as you mentioned earlier, uneventful, right? We see now massive upticks in the use of our cards.
Starting point is 00:20:42 So crypto cards in Europe are highly, highly popular, because we also give a little bit more better benefits. Back in the day, when we're talking like two, three years ago, some of the interfaces for those crypto cards was a bit clunky. The acceptance rate was not all too great. All of those, you know, like two things, have been resolved now. Some of those crypto cards, they have like super intuitive user experience.
Starting point is 00:21:11 They're all very welcomed into the Apple wallets or into mobile wallets. So in that sense, we see massive, massive month-on-month growth of the OKX card in Europe. Where we also see from the data that we've pulled recently is that before the spend of with crypto cards was more of low value purchases. A coffee in your coffee shop or, you know, like a snack here and there. Now we see people fully like booking their travels with crypto cards. They're doing their grocery shopping with crypto cards. So in that sense, that is like, and this is also coming from more trust
Starting point is 00:21:53 and also from using the cashback on some of those crypto cards that we really see an uptick in the use, not only in the number of transactions, but also in the transaction size of crypto cards, that it's getting more and more mainstream. Is any of that because of my cars? You think general mainstream behavior in the way that people want to use these. Honestly, I hadn't even brought up your card.
Starting point is 00:22:18 It's funny. It's telling me to go to the U.S. site. But here we're. Finally, a card that speaks fluent crypto, pay with stable coins everywhere. There's MasterCard. Noos fees up to 10% cash back. So, I mean, this is, and it's a master card, right?
Starting point is 00:22:29 So as you're saying, these cards now, yours and others, are being accepted, I would imagine, pretty much everywhere that you can use a credit card, right? Everywhere, exactly. And the use cases for this is amazing. The user interface is super smooth. Acceptance rate, great. And it also ties in in what you mentioned earlier with Micah. Mika is not only regulatory clarity, but for a segment of...
Starting point is 00:22:59 the consumers, the people in Europe, this is also a seal of trust, right? Like now people are having much more financial certainty that the right level of vetting and control and financial safety is when people are investing in crypto or when they're putting crypto to use through their crypto card. So Micah was definitely an accelerator and then a of crypto adoption for a segment of people that we couldn't reach before Maika, where people were still having some questions about regulatory clarity. Is this like a trustworthy source or company with trustworthy people, where I can put my money in?
Starting point is 00:23:48 Now with Maika, all those doubts are gone. So we really see like some new user segments that have clear interest in crypto now thanks to the regulatory clarity in Europe. Yeah, and I want to talk more about the idea of the everything app because it's something I talk about on my shows all the time. We sort of have this convergence of, you know, crypto from one side, trad-fi from the other side. Obviously, everybody's meeting in the middle. I think the trad-fi side has been slower, right? I mean, now we just have Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley offering trading on a few assets, right?
Starting point is 00:24:18 But they haven't gotten to the custody and yield and really these kind of things that are consumer-facing. But over in Europe, we see the same exchanges from crypto, you know, even here, everybody wants to move into the middle and take over tradfi and tokenized stocks and everything, I think is just coming to the middle where it predicts your markets. Everyone wants to offer everything. It seems like Europe is far ahead in that as well. I mean, we have announcements every day from different platforms in Europe offering thousands of tokenized stocks. And we always see the announcement here, and it always says for European users or not for Americans or for, you know, like specific jurisdictions. It seems like the idea of the Everything app is much.
Starting point is 00:24:59 closer on an OKX in Europe than in places elsewhere because of the regulation. I mean, what are you guys doing in tokenized stocks, pre-IPO, all these things are becoming so, so popular? Yeah. So indeed, this is like the avenue that we're going down in Europe. We will be offering tokenized stocks. We will be offering pre-IPO relatively soon in the next few days, two weeks or something like that. So we're getting there, right?
Starting point is 00:25:30 And indeed, it's absolutely true, Scott. Like, Europe is very close to this everything app, right? As I mentioned, the only use case that is currently out of scope or not available to crypto companies is borrowing and lending for mortgages or for consumer credits. That thing is still out of scope. One thing that would also be great if at some moment in time, because we are now also held up to the highest regulatory standards, that they would also consider opening up for fractional reserves for crypto companies like ours.
Starting point is 00:26:02 We have so much assets under management available in crypto companies in Europe. I'm sure in the U.S. it's the same. Why not put those assets back to work and put it back in the economy through a fractional reserve? I think that would be a next hurdle that the regulators could look into. So in Europe, I know here we're seeing a lot of crypto companies apply for sort of limited banking charters, trust charters, to have some banking access for custody and such. Where Liberty Financial just got it, I saw, you know, Circle has it, Paxos, mostly for stable coin issuance under Genius. But we see a lot of companies trying to basically become banks.
Starting point is 00:26:46 They can do that. Now, the bank charters, the crypto companies are getting, do not allow lending and fractional reserve. They don't take customer deposits. but there's a step in that direction. What does that look like in Europe? What's the banking relationship for an OKX in Europe? And Ken, is there a path for you to become the bank and do those things? So since we got the licenses, getting bank licenses,
Starting point is 00:27:07 getting bank relationships to, you know, do custody and to do partnerships with bank is relatively straightforward and easy. For unregulated players who do not have mica, it's absolutely impossible, right? Like the first thing that any bank will ask you is, show me your license, right, if you want to operate in Europe. So in that sense, getting local fiat on and off ramps in Europe, only accessible now to regulated players. Now when it comes to getting bank licenses for crypto, so far there is not yet any crypto native crypto company that has a banking license. There are traditional banks who have now also, you know, started operating into the crypto space and are getting quite substantial double-digit percentage of their annual revenue from crypto trading.
Starting point is 00:28:05 So I believe that more and more banks will start to explore that avenue in Europe. Hence, it comes down again to this whole convergence, right? like crypto companies will try to offer more of the services that in the past have only been able to be offered by by credit institutions banks and credit institutions they will now also start offering actively crypto trading crypto services and probably will also move a lot of their interbanking money movements on the blockchain right because it's just so much more efficient frictionless and free, right? Like all those things like settlement with T plus one, T plus two, T plus three, that's going to be things of the past, right? Everything is going to move intra-banking
Starting point is 00:28:56 on chain. I mean, the entire world is going 24-7, 365. Whether people like it or not, and the funny thing is that maybe the greatest innovation that crypto gives the world. I mean, yesterday the NASDAQ announced 23-5, right, trading will start in December. I don't know what traders and companies are going to do who are used to market. at hours, but welcome to, welcome to crypto. You probably never get to sleep, right? I'll, I'll sleep. I get my eight hours. That's good. I couldn't do that if I tried. Unfortunately. I do try, though. So, you know, what do you think is the timeline for that everything app reality? I mean, it seems like, I think people in the United States don't realize what a big
Starting point is 00:29:39 deal this is outside of the United States, even to have access to U.S. capital markets. Like, most the world for most of time couldn't even buy our stocks. Right. So, I mean, this is opening everything to everyone that's never had access to it through crypto rails. I think right now, when it comes to how do you win from the competition is user efficiency and ease of use for consumers, right? If you have to switch between apps, if you have to send money from one address to
Starting point is 00:30:11 another address, check in one app, do this, do it. a KYC here, do a KYC, there have questions here. I think it's just clunky, right? There's nothing better in my opinion that have everything in one app. I do believe that optionality and is great, right, but we also want to make sure that we offer a full suite of financial services in one app where you can put all your assets that you have to use for different kind of use cases, where you can also, where that financial system knows everything also intimately about you. It can be something scary, but for a lot of people, it's also something very reassuring, that there is full transparency about what you do and that you don't have to get questioned by that app, by that app.
Starting point is 00:30:58 So in that sense, I do believe that it will relieve a lot of friction for a lot of consumers to have everything available in one app. It's just a lot of much more efficient use of capital to have it all in one app. As long as the UXUI is good. So I'm not going to ask you for market predictions or anything like that, but we do have this title here, you know, Bitcoin correction maybe nearing an N with 8 of 12 capitulation signals flashing. This is from a Vanek report.
Starting point is 00:31:30 It's funny, they have something called the Bitcoin capitulation check. And all 12 of their signals have actually flashed at some point in the last three months, but eight of them flashing right now, non-specific to this. Just how do you view maybe potential catalysts that could reverse things, where the market's at in general, because I would imagine a unique view
Starting point is 00:31:49 to consumer behavior on exchange and can probably see what's actually happening and what they might be looking for. I mean, a lot of people obviously think that interest is in AI, right? Or metals or all these other kind of hotballs of money that we've seen. But what do you think you possibly bring people back?
Starting point is 00:32:05 Where do you think the liquidity is going to come from? And when do you think that can happen? Yeah, so we've seen quite a bit of capital outflow from the crypto market because of the semiconductors, because of AI, because of SpaceX. That was also quite a bit of a shift out of the market. That was already a little bit under pressure, you know, like towards the mid of the bear market that we're in now. I do believe that there are still quite a few highly anticipated IPOs, the OpenAI, the Anthropic, that might come later this year, early next year,
Starting point is 00:32:40 for which there might still be some capital, be staying in the traditional stock markets. Maybe shortly after that, I predict that quite a bit of the capital might be flowing back into digital assets. Because right now, I think the stock market is quite unprecedented in terms of all-time highs and numbers that we're seeing now, So I do expect that somewhere October-ish, November-ish, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:12 that we probably see quite a bit of a change and move back into the crypto market. I think now August might be still a little bit early. It's supposed to be the worst. August's the worst. We should all be touching grass or surfing or something. Exactly. It's funny, though, how much that aligns with the idea of the four-year cycle. And by the way, I was definitely one of those, hey, four-year cycle's dead.
Starting point is 00:33:37 you know a year ago but but here we are uh kind of yeah I was really into the the the Michael Saylor thing I think it was last year that he said he made this this this this great quote that I 100% believed and bought into he said now it's the gold rush of crypto for the next 10 years I think it was like up until 2034 99% of all the Bitcoin will be mined and I thought like okay this is it you know the four-year cycle is over. It's just going to be gold rush from now. Everybody wants to, you know, buy, you know, while it's still feasible to get a, to buy a whole Bitcoin, people are going to buy in. Countries are going to buy into it. Institutions are going to buy
Starting point is 00:34:22 into it. But it seems the four-year cycle is still a thing. Only if we go up. Right now, we're all cheering for the four-year cycle to be a thing because for it to be proven, we have to go up in the fall. But I think it's funny, you know, maybe the idea, of the gold rush makes sense because nobody who was actually going to look for gold made any money. It was just the people who sold them the picks and shovels. If you look at the history of the gold rush in the United States,
Starting point is 00:34:48 very few people actually made extreme wealth by going to actually look for gold. So, you know, that's a dark top. It aligns well with the infrastructure age, right? You know, like right now, it's very clear that regardless of what the speculators are trying to do, I think,
Starting point is 00:35:06 crypto, the people who are building here in the bear market are going to be the big winners at the end of the day. If you have a, if you come out, if we go into a raging bull market and you're sitting at OKX Europe and I can buy my, well, I'm not European, but if I was there, I could buy my stocks and my crypto and I can take a loan, a securities loan against the entire thing. And I can go in and out of one of the other without any friction. And all of that was built while prices were down, then infrastructure picks and shovels are going to win. And we see that genius implementation in United States and the stable coin issuers and how much interesting interest there is there, tokenizing stocks, I mean, all this stuff. It's the infrastructure.
Starting point is 00:35:44 I do know a few people, Scott, that did do quite well, you know, with the... There are some people who found gold. I know a few people that did quite well. Yeah, it's true. So, but it's interesting. I think you'll be probably uniquely positioned or European exchanges maybe especially, even if the liquidity doesn't necessarily. come directly back into crypto.
Starting point is 00:36:07 If you're offering all of those other things that people are interested in, you'll benefit anyways. I think we're getting to that point when we talk about that convergence where it's not going to matter to you whether it is crypto assets they're buying if they can buy Nvidia tokenized or SpaceX tokenized or do the Anthropic pre-IPO on your platform volumes, volume, right? I mean, that is also a little bit my ethos and my vision for Europe, right? Like there is the three financial needs.
Starting point is 00:36:36 Anybody in their entire life will only have three financial needs in their entire life. Like this first one is to pay and to get paid. The second one is to accrue wealth. The third one is to borrow or lend. Let's say 95% of the people ever in their life will have to borrow and lend. There are always people who are, you know, like born very lucky and they don't need to borrow or lend for a car or for a house. but those are the only three financial needs. It's our job, it's my job, to build use cases and solutions around those three financial needs.
Starting point is 00:37:11 And that's what we want to do in this, you know, like OKX, you know, Power App, this all-in-one financial app. I mean, I don't think this is anything, you know, like mind-blowing. I don't think this is like, you know, like something revolutionary. I think a lot of companies, a lot of traditional finance players, a lot of crypto companies. or down that path or doing amazing jobs in solving and sorting out those financial needs of users. Yeah, it's just such an interesting fast time that's happening right now, and I find it so amazing that prices are down. And the minute they catch up and look back on all this good news,
Starting point is 00:37:52 I think we're going to have a very explosive world market. It's just that situation where it feels, you know, prices are down, so nobody cares, but everything is happening. It's the best it's ever been, in my whole opinion. I think there might be something quite, I think maybe a few stars might align over the next few months with this new SEC thing that has now come, potentially the Clarity Act.
Starting point is 00:38:21 Europe that is now really into shifting gear in crypto where there is like this regulatory stamp of approval, Europe is like, I mean, the area that we were talking about in Europe, it's 480 million people that we can reach throughout this. It's a very, very large market. It's 30 countries in Europe that sit within this DEA. So that suddenly becomes fully accessible to crypto. It's my job now as well to make sure, you know, that we can, you know, educate those people, those, most of those 450, 480 million people in Europe about. I think also now if there is more money again flowing out or capital flowing out of the stock market after some of those anthropic or open AI IPOs,
Starting point is 00:39:13 there might be like some cataclyst coming, you know, with a couple of, you know, stars aligning and creating a very interesting and very interesting and promising market conditions. Yeah, we'd be happy to know we have people here who say the OKX card in Europe. is the best. I think that's what it says because my contacts are blurry. The OKX card in Europe is the best. Yeah. There's real people out there who are using these things and deeply appreciated of it. Erald, anything else that I might have missed before I let you go?
Starting point is 00:39:49 No, I think we covered quite a bit there, Scott. I do too. It's great having you on. I would love to do this again in the not-so-distant future if your game. Absolutely. I love you so much. Thank you so much, Harold. Appreciate it. Bye-bye. Man. See, it's funny. I see in the comments,
Starting point is 00:40:07 we have this mixed views of what's happening generally in Europe. Somebody actually said that they saw that the guest was from Europe and they left. Because Europeans are grifters. What world are we living in right now? Europe is ahead of the United States and crypto regulation and legislation guys. It is what it is. And it's almost embarrassing that we can't. get the Clarity Act done in the United States. But I'm a huge fan of the SEC trying to push forward. I think also I don't even have it pulled up as a story. But today, the White House is having
Starting point is 00:40:39 their CFDC Innovation pre-meeting. The official meeting is tomorrow. But that's with the head executives of most of the major crypto companies, also executives from the New York Stock Exchange at ICE and NASDAQ and all the big AI companies. So the way it was being reported by crypto media that the White House meeting today is specifically about crypto is not true. This is the general, but it's very clear that the CFTC is pushing innovation in all arenas and realms forward. Now, I mean, going back to this sort of a Van X story that we talked about before, I didn't even dig so deeply into the report. I would just say that anecdotally, they're saying eight of their 12 capitulation signals are flashing. You guys have heard me pounding
Starting point is 00:41:23 the payment on this, on this show and on the Daily Wolf. Like, I think we have a lot more bottom signals than signals that we're going much further down and for much longer. I mean, you just think about all the things that have happened. We've had sustained negative sentiment for all of this time. I mean, the worst case scenario for crypto was supposed to be if Michael Saylor ever sold Bitcoin. And since he started doing that, the market has been up. Right. So I would say that the fact that strategy has sold and the market immediately went up and has continued to stay up,
Starting point is 00:41:50 even as he does financial wizardry with MSTR and with Bitcoin in the background. And more importantly, handicapping the fact that he's no longer a buyer of Bitcoin and it can still be up, I think that's huge. People don't remember that at the bottom of the last bear market was the only other time the strategy sold in the 15,000s before buying back immediately a week later, around 17,000, seeing the market go up. But, you know, we have all of these signals that things can be bottoming. Take a look at the chart, weekly RSI, Polish divergence, the 200 MAA on the weekly, and the 50MA on the weekly, and the 50MA on. the monthly and it's all right there. And the only thing that is keeping people negative is price, right? And even more importantly, I think, is the fact that we're getting tons of negative news,
Starting point is 00:42:38 at least in self-custody and data breaches and all these things and sailor and the market is not going down. Like, it does not take a genius to look at markets historically and see that, you know, if good news is failing to push it up any further when you're at the top, watch out below. And if bad news fails to push it down when you're near a potential bottom, look out above. So two more quick stories that I just wanted to cover before I let you go. City expects to launch Bitcoin custody later this year under its new custody plus platform. I don't remember how many tens of guillions of dollars that are custodied by Citibank in general, but they're one of the largest custodians of assets on this entire planet.
Starting point is 00:43:22 And they are moving into Bitcoin custody. they're custody Bitcoin, I think it's fair to say that they will then be using it for lending and such. And now we have the largest custodians on planet Earth, custody, and crypto assets. Like I said, it's the best that it's ever bid. And another big story here, Ripple raises $270 million in senior notes for prime brokerage push. Ripple's prime inaugural senior notes carried an investment grade rating. I think it was BBB and drew institutional investors across financial markets. So I find this actually just really interesting because it's clear Wall Street's credit markets here, beginning to treat crypto-native financial infrastructure like
Starting point is 00:43:58 real financial infrastructure. This isn't a token offering. This isn't one of those things. You have to give all credit to these guys for continuing to push forward. I know there's a lot of controversy or mixed opinions on Ripple versus XRP and where the funding for these things came from. But this is $275 million from real Wall Street institutions for Ripple to build a real Wall Street institution. Whether that value accrues to the token is up to token holders to decide. but we are seeing some major institutional moves here from them. That is, I think, all that I had to cover today. Errol was a great guest.
Starting point is 00:44:35 I think that was the first time that we've actually got the opportunity to speak with someone who's on the ground in Europe about what's happening since the implementation there. So I found that extremely, extremely interesting. I would encourage you guys to check him out, follow him, and we'll have him back on the show. This show has the best guests, man. I know we got next week.
Starting point is 00:44:55 I got Paloardoino. We got Arthur Hayes live next week. I would love your guys feedback on who you would like to see on the show. Sometimes occasionally we get in this pattern where we have the same people back over and over and over again because we love them and they're brilliant. But there's got to be a million new people out there that are worth having on the show that you guys love and would love to hear their perspective. And that would really help me. You would tell me. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:45:21 All right, guys, it's all I got. We will be back. obviously I'll be back with the Daily Wolf at noon on Yahoo Finance. I know that all of you eagerly watch that every day. You probably sit there waiting for the timer to go off. I'm imagining that you actually don't do anything productive all morning waiting for that show. That's what I imagine. But otherwise, I'll see you tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:45:44 Be back here at 9 a.m.

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