The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin's Base Case Is $625K, Bull Case: $1,500,000 | Is Cathie Wood Sane? | Mark Yusko & Chris Inks

Episode Date: July 19, 2023

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Kathy Wood says Bitcoin is going to $1.5 million and that her base case, the worst case scenario, is $625,000, leading me to ask, what is Kathy Wood on and can I get some? No, but we're going to discuss today whether these are realistic predictions, whether this is just purely hyperbolic, toppy her book, or whether we can really see Bitcoin at prices like that. Of course, I've got amazing guests today. Mark Yusko at the first half, and then the back half, we're going to have Christopher Inks of Texas West Capital. We're going to discuss this and more. $1.5 million Bitcoin. Talk dirty to me, Kathy. Let's go. what's up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of wall street before we get started please subscribe to the channel and drop whatever kathy wood is smoking right down on that like

button actually i i'm here for it i think we could go to $1.5 million. Sure. Why not? I certainly think that $625,000 is possible, but why talk to myself about this when I have Mark Yusko in the wings? We're going to discuss it right now. $625,000 base case. Base case. Yeah. Why not? Why not? And again, apologies for the background today. I'm working remote. But look, the math of Bitcoin is pretty easy, right? We take the total market cap that we think is achievable. We divide by the number of coins that are still in circulation and you get a number.

And everybody fixates on that number. But I always think it's the wrong number, right? Because it's in our currency. So you and I both know one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. It has been the entire time. That's what we're trying to move toward is a world where Bitcoin is the unit of measure. What we're talking about here is dollars per Bitcoin. And that price that everybody fixates on isn't so much Bitcoin getting better it's actually our money at the

dollar getting worse it's you know like trying to buy a cup of coffee that you know used to be a quarter now is five dollars or six dollars that's it's the same cup of coffee it does the same thing it delivers the same amount of caffeine um unless you put whatever kathy's putting in hers uh and um you know it's so yeah the math of of just pick a number 500k 600k let's let's do that math together where Where does that even come from? Well, if you have a base case that the market cap of Bitcoin should roughly equal gold's market cap, a reasonable assumption. If we say that Bitcoin is digital gold and it plays the role of base money, right? Money, as we know it, is really a small thing. It's gold. And Mark, what do you mean? I use cash. No, that's debt. That's a currency, but it's not money. Money

is an asset that exists in the absence of a liability. The only thing in the world that does that for 5,000 years is gold. Now people have dabbled with other stuff, but ultimately all the other stuff that we think of as money is backed by debt. It's currency. And that's why it ultimately devalues and ultimately inflates away and why in the history of the world, there've been 775 paper currencies, three quarters of them no longer exist. I mean, they literally went away. And the same is happening in real time to the dollar, which is why Larry Fink, Larry Fink, not exactly Joe from some Twitter handle. We're talking one of the most powerful people in the world. He's in charge of

a company that manages close to 10 trillion, with a T, dollars, said that you should put some money in Bitcoin, in my ETF, of course, that will protect you from devaluation of the currency. He actually said it. And so this is a long answer, Scott, to how do you get to 625? I mean, that's just 20X market cap from here, right? So gold is 20X our market cap. Easy, 600, done. Exactly. No, no, that's it. And that's all it is. And now the one adjustment I make is the total market cap of gold is 11 trillion. Total market cap. And we're about half a trillion in Bitcoin. So total market cap... Actually, we're higher than that? What is... I figured 600 or 700. I've got it here. 700. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Somewhere in the ballpark. I can get it. Yeah.

The whole total now is at 1.2. So yeah, we've grown. It's 581. 581 billion. Yeah. So yeah. So 600. 600.

That's a big point. Let's just, let's round gold to 12, because it probably is. And you're 20X. He's right. 20X. But here's the thing. Half of that gold isn't money. It's jewelry and chalices and gold leaf and stuff that isn't really used as a monetary base. So that half is 6 trillion.

That's a 10X from here. Current price of 30. 10X is 300K. Okay, I did. 300K to me is so easy, we don't even have to debate because the idea of Bitcoin being better than gold as a store of value, as a unit of account, as more portable. I say all the time, if I had a bar of gold, which maybe at my other house I do, but if I had a bar of gold and I wanted to break it in half and send you half, I'm not strong enough to break the bar of gold, first of all. Second, I couldn't stuff it in the computer to send to you.

I want to send you some Bitcoin. I punch a couple of buttons and you got Bitcoin. We're done. So that's a superior store of value and medium of exchange. So I believe Bitcoin gold equivalents is a no-brainer. Now, when? Tomorrow? Next day? I don't really care. Sometime in the future. That's easy. So that's that 300K number. I've been using 250K because there's... Well, yeah. I mean, last cycle, I thought we'd get to like 235, 250, by the way. So maybe I was just a cycle too early, but we'll see. I think that's a reasonable number. Let's actually, I have the video, but we just uploaded of exactly what Kathy Wood said. It's like a minute. So she has even a different premise. So we can. We went to a bear, base, and bull case. So our bull case is 1.5 million.

The base case is 600, I think it's 625,000, something like that. Yeah. something like that. Now, one reason we've actually internally, our confidence has increased towards the bull case is because of what happened during the regional bank crisis in March. What happened? Bitcoin, so as regional banks are going bankrupt and the stocks are imploding across the board for the KRE, Bitcoin rallied from 19,000 to 30,000. Why did that happen? That was a flight to safety. That is the insurance policy that we are talking about, that we believe everyone will want at the end of the day. Insurance policy against two things, A confiscation of wealth, either directly or by inflation or in the deflation world. What is it a hedge against?

It's a hedge against counterparty risk. We won't have an 0809 with Bitcoin. Everything is decentralized and transparent. No obfuscation. Yeah, I mean, so she makes the different case, obviously. She believes it's because banks will fail. But what I find interesting is that she has a case for both deflation and the sense that we have for 800 years-ish been ruled by this system. And I used to tell the story, Scott, it's funny. I just got back from a vacation. I took a long vacation for the first time in a long time and it was awesome. We went to Spain and Portugal.

And for years I had talked about, and I think even with you on the show, I've talked about the Medicis, 800 plus years ago, invented fractional reserve banking. And they borrowed, aka stole, as Picasso said, good artists borrow, great artists steal. They stole from some monks this idea. Now, I didn't know until a couple of weeks ago when I was in Portugal that those monks were the Knights Templar, that these Portuguese monks, the Order of Christ, the Knights Templar, the cross that... Here's the crazy thing, Scott. Once you hear this story, everywhere you look, there's the cross. Oh, everywhere. that happened to me after

i watched uh indiana jones and the last crusade but yeah go ahead yeah but but every monument every little sidewalk little inscription every you know every portuguese flag every everything like every football coat of arms like barcelona's coat of arms has the order of Christ right there. So nice Templar everywhere. But this fractured banking system, it's not the devil that everybody thinks it is. It's just fragile and it's subject to abuse. And I've used the example all the time. In the old days, I lent you money. I wrote down in my ledger. I kept the ledger because I was the rich guy. You needed the money. And I wrote down, you owe me a hundred kept the ledger because I was the rich guy, you needed the money. And I wrote down, you owe me a hundred bucks. You come back to pay me a hundred bucks.

I've tampered with my ledger. You show up with your 110 to pay me back. And I'm like, oh, but Scott, it says right here, you owe me 200. And you had no recourse because there was no other ledger. So the Medici's borrowing the Knights Templar said, okay, Scott, you keep a ledger, Mark, you keep a ledger. And we, the benevolent Medici's for a small fee will arbitrate that the ledgers match. But here's the thing. They're corruptible and I'm a corrupt guy. So I go to the Knights. I mean, I go to the Medici's and I say, you know what? Scott owes me a hundred, but I'm going to change it to 200 and I'll give you half. They're like, done. So you come back to pay me $100 and the book says $200. And you're like, hey guys,

it's $100. And they're like, Scott, you must've written it down wrong. I'm sorry. And so you have to pay $200. And so for years, the system has been corrupted. And we've seen lots of examples from the spoofing and the fines. My favorite stat on that is the fines paid by the global banks. The fines, not the malfeasance, not the money laundering, not the fines that they've admitted to and paid equals the market cap. I mean, that's an amazing stat. And that's a little outdated because I think it's only 500 billion and now we're up to 700 billion, but still $500 billion is a lot of money to pay for malfeasance. And so now we have this triple entry accounting system and that Kathy discusses, this decentralized system where we don't have to rely on the Medici's or the Morgan's or the Rothschild's or anybody else. It's just you and me

and this global decentralized network that is immutable and permanent that we don't have to debate. And we don't need anybody else. If I want to send you money right now, you have to have a bank account, I have to have a bank account. We pay a fee, wire transfer fee or whatever. But that's antiquated technology. That's an old system. In the new world, this is a cool thing I learned. In 1492, there was no new world. Where we're sitting today was forest and trees and not a lot of stuff. And Queen Isabella, the first venture capitalist, gave Christopher Columbus and, well, and Vasco de Gama. He went to India and Christopher went, thinking he was going to India, went to the new world. Long story short, she was the first venture capitalist. Why? Because she took 20% of what they carried back, carried interest. I love that. And the Spanish and the Portuguese were rich for a long time. They were the sound of the universe. Portuguese, the first world reserve currency,

then the Spanish when they took over. And it's like, how could that happen? Well, it's because there was nothing here. There was nothing. And something I never thought about. This is a kind of cool stat or cool little thing. The horse, the cow, the pig, the chicken, all of them, not endemic to North and South America. The potato, not from Ireland. The tomato, not from Italy. Those are from South America and all the other stuff. And it all came through Seville, Spain in the late 1400s. That's pretty cool. Absolutely. Well, I've got an article here that has some handsome guy on the front. It's you. The Clint Rally will lead to speculative blow-off top in 2024, Mark Yusko predicts.

So while we're here talking about prices, and I love everything you said, this obviously means that you have something in mind as to what will happen, but is this based on the halving cycle? Is this based on what you're seeing? Yeah. So you're sort of blow off top in the tail end of 2024. Of course. And look, headlines, you even got, you even, somebody tweeted this morning about your headline. I'm like, come on. All headlines are clickbait. That's the whole point. You're trying to get people to come. But the headline is not the point. The point was,

there's a four-year cycle and there's going to be a four-year cycle because it's coded into Bitcoin. Every four years, the block rewards get cut in half. And therefore, one of two things has to happen. Either a large number of the miners have to go bankrupt because their costs are basically fixed or the price has to rise. And that's a pretty cool thing because what happens is as the price rises, it attracts attention, right? Movement attracts attention, right? Like if someone, like if my son or daughter were to move across the frame in the back, I would look because that's what we hunters do and we follow movement. And so what happens every four years is we have these seasons. And today we're in crypto summer. Well, what is crypto summer?

Summer is the period leading up to the halving, the year before the halving. And what does that mean? Well, that means we drift from below fair value. Now, why are we below fair value? Well, because we had winter two seasons ago that pushes the price down. Well, why does winter happen? Well, because people freak out because of the parabolic top in the previous fall. And then we go through spring, which is kind of the bottoming process. That ended, I think, from June to June. And now we're back in summer. Well, if the Metcalfe's Law model that Tim Peterson, that I use, says fair value is 55K, investors, people who buy things below fair value, that's what an investor is supposed to do, would be accumulating Bitcoin here, right? If the price is 30 and the fair value is 55,

you would be a buyer. So as that happens, it slowly accretes toward fair value. When the halving occurs, suddenly the price has to rise a little faster. Well, now that draws in speculators. Well, what are speculators? Speculators are people that don't care about the fair value. They don't care about the price. They just want to make money. So they're drawn to the movement. Well, so in the fall of the cycle, the year following the halving, what you get is increasing velocity and increasing interest. The media comes in, you got lots of clickbait, and suddenly it starts to go parabolic. Well, here's what happened. Toward the end of that cycle, that fall period, you get the leverage. And the leverage is what

causes the parabola. And that's true of every... Look what's happening in stocks right now. Why are stocks going like this? Why is Nvidia going like this? Leverage and short selling and short recovering. That's what it is. There's no chance that Nvidia is worth, in terms of value, its current price. I agree. It's not mathematically possible. It's a great company. They make great products. They're going to sell a lot of chips to people thinking that AI is going to change the world, even though AI is not new. It's a 55-year-old overnight success story. And we're all not going to be replaced by ChatGPT. I got news for you. But that's not the point. The point is leverage, margin debt is accelerating again. And so leverage is causing prices to be crazy. So we're in a parabolic blow-off peak in stocks, I believe. And we will have another

parabolic blow-off peak, kind of late 2024, halving happens April, May. By the end of that year- That's later. We'll be in the parabolic. And look, in the previous peaks, fair value was X. We got to two, three, four times. Fair value was probably where we're at now in the last cycle. Should have been in the 30s. Probably. Maybe 40. Fair value, when we hit 60, the model said fair value was 20. It had been up to 30 and it had fallen to 20. Because remember, transaction volume fell and everybody was afraid. And so we got to three X because of the crazy Binance 100 times leverage and all the stupid stuff. And that's fine. In the previous cycle, in 2017, we got to two times fair value was 10, we got to 20. Okay, that's fine. So this time,

fair value will accrete, according to the model, if things stay the way they are, fair value will accrete to around 100K by the half. Okay, well, why is that? That means we go to 300 because we get leverage. Well, no. And again, I think the leverage is smaller this time. I don't think we get to three, but could we go to two? Sure. But that's- Do you think that the ETF, if it gets... ETF is obviously part of this argument, even outside of the having. If we see a BlackRock ETF approved, but do you think that that could actually smash volatility down? I mean, there's an argument to be made that you get an ETF, you get Wall Street control,

and then all of a sudden this becomes a very boring investable asset class. Goes up a couple percent and then turns into gold. A hundred percent, but not overnight. I think first we would see that massive move for a year. No, no, no, no. That's just supply and demand, right? Because you got the hodlers who are going to hodl. They're not selling. Here's the funny thing. Everybody's like, oh, they're excess buyers in the market. Oh, they're excess sellers in the market. No, there's not. There's always an equal number of buyers and sellers. Every transaction in every security, in every asset, in every commodity, in every everything, always

has to be a buyer and a seller. I cannot just buy stuff out of thin air. Now, if I were the Fed, I could create money out of thin air, but I can't buy stuff out of thin air. So this idea that if an ETF, not ETF, when the BlackRock ETF is approved, the BlackRock ETF will be approved. There is no question in my mind that will be approved. Everybody says, well, but the other ones are ahead of them. I don't care. They will not be approved. The BlackRock will be approved. After that, maybe someone else will get approved just so they can kind of cover their tracks, but BlackRock is going to get approved. So that's going to cause increasing demand. There is a finite supply. So there's the first finite supply, meaning there's only going to ever be 21 million, and there won't even be 21 million because there's been some that's

lost or stolen. You got the Satoshi wallet, it's never going to move. You got all kinds of stuff. So that and the incremental change in in bitcoins. By some estimates is about 10, 11 percent of of the coins. If hundreds of billions, which I think is a reasonable estimate, comes into the market. okay, and we're talking, let's say 200 billion comes in and there's only 60 billion of available supply for sale, price will rise. That's just supply and demand, right? You shift the demand curve, the price will rise. That will cause more people to come in. That will cause some leverage. But I think this time the leverage won't be as great because the scrutiny of the regulators. It's just not as readily available, even at that. Yeah.

I mean, you can't even find it. I mean, speaking of regulators, I don't know if you saw this, that Richie Torres from New York wrote a letter to the SEC, to Gary Gensler. This is interesting because people think Democrats are like hate crypto for some reason. I think we just get that narrative from the one very far side on each side. But basically said, you know, he's writing to inquire if the SEC intends to come to terms with the folly of the commission's crusade against crypto assets in light of the latest decision by Judge Annalisa Torres of the Southern District of New York. By the way, the judge in the Coinbase case works in the same building and is friends with this judge. And I'm sure that they have lunch together and casually talk about these things. But he went on as far as to say that the latest court decision establishes a clear rule that should bear the name of Judge Torres, who

has brought long overdue legal clarity to the chaos of crypto regulation. The Torres Doctrine, as I call it, his name also Torres. Convenient. All the crypto assets are not securities in themselves, but can be sold as part of investment contracts, which do qualify as

securities under the Howey test. Okay, listen. Do you think from what you've seen about the Ripple case that we now have clarity and it's because we, you know, Warren Davidson, who's a hardcore Republican, retweeted this.

I think we have more confusion, but we have a narrative of clarity for the next year and a half or two until they appeal. So that's what I have. We have, we have clarity. 1%, 2%, 3%. I don't know. We have some clarity. Like rated diamonds. this issue of look the issuance of ripple and and other things in in icos clearly security that i

think now now we have clarity on that yeah that's and and some people are going to pay some fines and and you know the funny thing is they said well it could be up to 700 million dollars of of of fines. Like, you know, Carlinghouse and the foundation are like, yes! Because if you own 20 billion or something and you got to pay 700 million, that's a good day. A billion dollar fine for hitting it. That's an average gold spoofing year for JP Morgan. That's just it.

They pay a $900 million fine and they make 20 billion. They're like, ooh, it's the cost of doing business, 5%. I'm done. I would sign that all day. And they don't have to admit guilt. This is my favorite part. These people never have to admit guilt. They just pay. If you pay a billion dollars, you're guilty, right? You wouldn't pay a billion dollars if you weren't guilty, but they don't have to admit guilt because that's the messed up system we have. So we have clarity on that. What we don't have clarity on, oh, no, we also have clarity on that the transactions between people like you and me or others on exchanges aren't securities. That's actually good clarity because nor should they be. And because we were going down a crazy path where this whole thing where Genzer was like, anything that you buy with an expectation of an increase in value is a security.

I'm like, oh, okay. I got a problem now. So my house is now a security. So we got to register. Those Jordans I bought on eBay that I think might be worth $50 more if I don't problem now. So my house. Those Jordans I bought on eBay that I think might be worth $50 more if I don't wear them. Look, there it is.

I have a pretty decent collection. My 12-year-old and I play a lot of Pokemon. So I expect some value to those. But the idea that I have a stamp collection, and now I've got to find a registered philatelist, which sounds like a terrible... I mean, it's like one of the craziest words. Philatelist is...

It's a crazy word. No, it's a crazy word. So I think we're getting better clarity. And look, Gary... I shouldn't call him Gary, Chairman Gensler, has a goal, right? And he's had a goal since he was installed. Remember, he was installed. By Elizabeth Warren. Yeah.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. And the big guy, they put him in there to do a certain thing. And that was on the instruction of the incumbents who fund all these people. And look, I get it. That's what incumbents have been doing forever. They use regulation to slow down disruption. No problem with that. That's how it works. But in the end, better technology always wins. Last time, I watched 1883. I don't know if you've watched it yet.

You know, the prequel to Yellowstone. Yeah. Amazing. I mean, a little outlandish, but amazing. And with these people getting on a wagon and going 2,000 miles through the middle of nowhere, when was the last time you rode a horse and buggy? Not the buggy, but I've ridden a horse seven not our normal mode of transportation. I mean, I took a horse and buggy ride on my vacation, just like you can in New York City, but there are more cars than horse and buggies. And when was the last time you got on a ship with sails

and cruised across the Atlantic to go to Europe? That doesn't happen anymore either. We now have these things called airplanes. And so better technology always wins. And so here's my problem with all of this, right? The 1933 Act and the 1940 Act were created in 1933 and 1940. It is now 2023. So we're talking about 90-year-old technology, 90-year-old regulations that people are trying to stuff this new age technology into. And it doesn't make any sense. And it's kind of like why this constant holding on by the incumbents to say, no, no, no, we need fiat. Why? Why? Gold is money. Then Fedwire sits on top of that. So the Fed is enabled the creation of currency. Well, what is that good for? What is fiat good for? Off the chain capital, Brian Estes and those guys, they hosted a webinar yesterday and Robert Kennedy came on. I'm not endorsing him as a candidate. I like him. I think he stands for a lot of good stuff.

His position on Bitcoin is awesome. But he said something that was really important. And I say this all the time. So agreeing with the fact that we agree, I'm liking. But he said that what fiat does, the whole purpose of it is to create income and wealth inequality. It's why it was created by the Rothschilds in the 1600s, and then by the Bank of England in the 1800s, and by the Fed in the 1900s. And for the last 110 years, the Fed, which is neither federal nor has any reserves, has done exactly its job. It's created the largest income and wealth inequality in the history of mankind. Now, you could also say, but in that period, we've taken the greatest number of people out of abject poverty and made people's lives

better. 100%. Not because of fiat. I will argue because of fractional reserve banking. Oh, what are you talking about? Fractional reserve banking is awful. Rehypothecation is terrible. No, no, no, no, no. Name a country with a absent or poor fractional reserve banking system that you would live in. Wait, I can't do it. I can't do it. So fiat is the problem, not banking. Fiat is the problem because fiat can be created out of thin air at a punch of a button now. You used to have to go to a printing press and actually print the money. Now you can just press a button and you devalue the thing that everybody uses to make their life. I took my family to the ice cream place last night. $6 for a single ice cream cone. Now do international flights. No, no, no, exactly. It's in Topsail Beach, North Carolina. This is not New York City. This is not London. And I get it. They're trying to make a living. And this woman, it's hot and she's slogging ice cream and it's good ice cream. She

makes it every day and I'll pay it gladly, but it's not easy. I mean, that's a lot of money for a scoop of ice cream on a cone. So why is that happening? Well, it's because under the guise of lockdowns and all that stuff, the MMT crowd, the cult of Kelton, did the unthinkable. They created half of all the dollars in the history of our republic. That's the one thing about going to Europe that I love. We're so young. America's just so young. I mean, you go to Lisbon, Portugal, which I would move to tomorrow, by the way, mostly because they don't tax-

Awesome town. Oh my God. It's unbelievable. But the thing is, it's San Francisco. I mean, they have the Bay Bridge. It's the same bridge, right? Same architect, same color. They have the Bay Bridge. They have cable cars. They have the hills. But they have 800-year-old castles and 600-year-old buildings. So it's just the nicer, more mature version of what we have here. But what we forget is we're a young country, but even in that youth, we're now 247 years old. Okay, 247 years, half the money was created up to 2020. Half the money was created since then. So it's logical that the price of everything is rising. Not because the things that you're getting better, like that ice cream's not better. It's because the money is worse.

And that's the thing about Bitcoin. It was like, oh, you know, Kathy says, Bitcoin went up from 19 to 30. One Bitcoin, still one Bitcoin. What happened is the dollar went down. The dollar is getting less valuable. And what I think is interesting is people forget there's never been a bear market in Bitcoin in Venezuela, in Argentina, in Turkey, because those, talk about devaluation. Those people know how to devalue. Yeah. Gives a lot to think about. Now you make me want to go to Lisbon. That's what it really gives me to think about. Scott, you know what we should do? We should do an event.

We should do a big event and just get all the people that watch the show and come to the spaces and we should all go to. I mean, Lisbon is. It's awesome. That's amazing. Amazing. It's awesome. Well, since we were talking about the dollar devaluation, now we're going to take a look at some charts with Christopher. So I know he loves to talk about the dollar, the dollar dropping.

Mark, thank you as usual, especially showing up when you're not even home and in the office. I don't know. I just glad to get your network. Nobody work and nobody I'd rather listen to. All right. Hey, thanks. Thanks for having me. Enjoy the rest of the day, and we'll see you in spaces later in the week. Indeed.

Later, man. Thank you. Yeah. And now we're going to talk about that very devaluation of the dollar. Not really devaluation, but it certainly has been dropping. I got Christopher Inks. What's up, man?

What's going on, man? How are you? Enjoy the history lesson from the wings? Oh, man. Always a good time, right? Yeah. I've got the Rothschilds. We got Monks, the Medici's. We got...

Something for everybody. Well, something for the kids. Something for the kids some for the kids man well let's take a look down at the charts though obviously and listen i don't know what you got pulled up but uh you know guys every wednesday we do this chris and i we talk about what we're looking at in the market what are your broad strokes right now has anything changed kind of in the last uh couple weeks not much for me not really really, man. No, I mean, I'm looking at the dollar here. This is the dollar features on the ice exchange. But man, you know, we had this

154 days of sideways which I've got to look back there on this larger time frame. Looks like a triangle. So we'll give that a wave 4. You know, that gives us minimum expected 97.215 as a wave 5 target. But at that point all i would expect is a rally back up toward wave 4 here again and then further down um it's you know it's

possible this could be an a and then b is a triangle and c but you know we're still looking down toward 90 then even in that case um if we're doing that which which takes us back down to where we you know where we began this rally way back over here when I said it looks like the bottom's in down here we'd still be looking to go down there so overall I think we've got further downside, looks like right now we're getting

a bit of a bounce that hourly pivot sits just a bit higher here I'm looking at the weekly and we've got potential tweezers it looks like here so it'll be interesting to see how the week but I think we just broke down we go back up like you said kind of retest this area and then

drop but that does look a little bottomy if you're just looking at those two candles potentially well at the bottom here also looking down here RSI has not quite dipped down and oversold yet neither has Stoke RSI so I'm kind of waiting for that to happen. I think really for the weekly to kind of say, okay,

I think we get this bounce. But, you know, at the end of the day, that weekly pivot is what you're looking at. And as long as that thing's holding his resistance, we'll look for rejection, you know, and continue on down lower. I don't see anything going on with the uh with the dollar right now that's going to say this should be you know gaining some strength cpi some you know big surprise to the downside i say big somebody separate poor cpi was a big surprise yes yeah poor cpi was great uh but even even uh headline cpi i mean that was still expect that went down you know from four to three i mean you know they were they were already looking at three four and wanted to even miss that it went three so i mean you know fed from four to three. I mean, you know, they were, they were already looking at three, four and one. It's even missed that it went three. So, I mean, you know, feds looking for two, uh, we're at three headline, uh, you know, with headline before four, four was

coming down, four did well last time. So, you know, jobs missed pretty big there. Everybody got excited. ADP numbers came out that Thursday. Uh, we're saying, Oh, you know, 500,000 jobs, which would have been twice the expectation. And, uh, you know, 500,000 jobs, which would have been twice the expectation. And, you know, I mentioned that on Twitter. I said, you know, most often they're wrong. They're not even close. And yeah, they were wrong. We didn't even get the, you know, we only got like, what, 209,000. So, you know, job growth is slowing. CPI is pulling back. People are still spending, though. People are still spending. So. I feel like they're going to run out of money money soon though maybe i uh overestimate the wealth that people have accumulated during the pandemic and after but

i keep saying this it feels like we're having this like one last hurrah summer and like every tourism like airplanes hotels food they're gouging people just to death like to just get their last shot at them and now everybody's gonna realize that their credit cards are blown up. We go into the fall and all of a sudden consumer spending dies. But hey, that's just my theory. Hey, you know, it could happen, right? It could happen. But as long as the U.S. consumer spending, you know, I believe it's something like 70%

of GDP is consumer spending. So, you know, as long as they're spending, it's hard to really get to what we would call a, you know, a recession. So we'll see what happens, you know, do we take that final hit and I'll be sucking wind at that point or, you know, did we power our way through it and we'll continue up higher? I mean... Let's talk about Bitcoin because, I mean, we're sitting at 30,000, right? And we would have expected in the past, when we add more of a correlation or a correlation narrative, that with this much dollar weakness, we would see Bitcoin flying right now. And then also you would have expected that

after a move that Bitcoin made from 25,000 to 31,000, effectively in a week, in past markets, if we had this kind of sideways consolidation, we would have seen altcoins going nuts. And so we're not getting some of the echoes of the past is what I'm getting at. Well, you know, and, but I mean, you know, if we look at it, the whole thing from the top down to the bottom was kind of a bit different. You know, we had the double top, which we, which we haven't had before, you know, and that extended things a certain way. I mean, ultimately for the all-time high to the November low, it was about a year, which was, you know,

when it ended there in November, you know, we usually get those reverses around November, December of the year. So, I mean, all that kind of came in there. At this point, you know, we're going sideways. We had this strong rally up, so that's why we're going sideways. You know, you've seen it everywhere else. You know, when you get that strong move up, it kind of does sideways. We've hit this area up here multiple times all through here. So we're constantly kind of nipping away higher. A little bit higher will do it. And then if we pop out above that, we should be

rallying up toward 40,000 or something like that. I think pretty easily. I don't see a lot of maybe resistance in there. There's a lot of maybe resistance in there. You know, there's a lot of just large candles kind of coming down here. So you have to have $38,000, $40,000 at least for a pop. And then that gives people some support, some hope that it goes up higher, you know, and people start buying, people hold a bit more. Back to $30,000.

Do what? And then back to $30,000. Well, I think, you know, my thought is everybody's kind of looking for a lower down. But, man, you know, if we get this pop-up through here, I think this holds a support. That's exactly what I'm saying. Yeah, I'll call it 32 when I said back to 30. I mean, yeah, when you zoom in here on this range, maybe, and I was looking for this. I thought when we got rejected here hey we were going to

sweep the low so now do we think we just now that's enough fuel i guess this is the question that i'm asking right i thought maybe we go on to like 28.6 a more macro sort of larger time frame support but i mean we've seen we we headed at least to the back of the range every time we've been down here and every time we'll be at the top we've gone to the bottom so is this just like was this simply another liquidity grab on the way back up to 31 something and then we'll see yeah you know the the one thing i like about it um i was going to talk on your chart there about full monitor here yeah yeah okay i got it yeah we'll pop up here uh the one thing i like about you know kind of doing this sideways here is that this year's hourly chart you see that volume's dropping off the entire way right so that's the first thing as as the as the range continues to expand continues to get through four four weeks here

that volume those volume spikes are getting smaller smaller overall volume decrease that's what we want to see you know if we've got an accumulation or a reaccumulation area. Importantly, this drop right here, again, volume just dropping off, you know. If this, you know, usually the first thing you look for, if this is going to break down through the swing low, you're usually looking for that volume to pick up. You want to see, you know, consistent selling all the way down through it, but we don't really have that. We have very little little especially as we kind of started getting down toward these lows here you know lesser and lesser volume compared to as as we were here and here so to me that that's that's compelling that's um potentially uh you know a good thing we're kind

of seeing there but ultimately you know guys you have to remember we are range bound right um so if you didn't buy here, it might be a bit difficult. It's a small range, too. Yeah, it's a small range. I mean, this is for it to be between basically in like a $1,500 range for over a month in Bitcoin or around a month. That's pretty sideways. Yeah, yeah.

But we haven't broken down yet. And I think that's another really important thing to look at there. So it's constructive for further upside, but we definitely need to see the movement. You want to see an impulsive breakout above this hourly pivot, and then that heads up, right? And then we head up, and if we're breaking out through the top there, you're looking way up here again wave circle three's got that 43,380 kind of target up there um which gives us this larger one two three four five up here around 54,000 now might we make it up there so what'll happen if we get up here to 49,000 and that's as far as it goes and it pulls back some chucklehead or two are going to say oh look you were so stupid you were so

and i'm like but look it went up to you, 49,000 and you're being an idiot, right? But, you know, there's, there's just so much hate. There's so much saltiness. There's so much fear in the market still. And people just aren't interested in really putting any real long in it. And that's the problem. That's why people, you know, they, they want to do this, but they wait until we get to new all-time highs before they're actually getting in with any kind of size instead of down here you know at the bottom which is where you should be entering right this is where you should be entering if you're looking for that multi you know whatever 10x or whatever runs you know if you're on a shit coin 100 time run right you got to get down at the lows

the further you wait for that thing to continue going up to convince you that it's bottomed out, the less you're going to get on that run. It's just the way it is. 16K was pretty cheap Bitcoin. What do you make of this bearish divergence on the daily? Obviously, I think it's largely played out, but you had the one here, and then obviously it's drawn as one. We never really got the hit-ish bull in divergence,

but it is bouncing right at 50 on rsi here compelling very much so yeah i mean i think the the breakdown there from that last uh bearish divergence i think uh has a good likelihood of having played out uh so you know again like you said it's just chopping right there neutral on uh what is that, RSI you got there? Yeah, what's interesting, I mean, you're talking about 31,000 only down to about 29,008. Reset RSI from 72 all the way to 50. Usually to get a 22 RSI drop on the daily, you would be talking about like a 10, 15, 20% move. Yeah. It's kind of a small move, so it's really not that impactful.

Yeah, yeah. You know, it's resetting while they're just kind of moving back a little bit. And again, you know, just adds to the whole narrative, you know, is there a, you know, is it, is that bottom potentially right there? You know, are we doing just this flat correction right here, ready to kind of ramp up? And I think if it does, I think that's going to catch a lot of people off guard, you know. Because they're all looking for that further downside. Worst case scenario, I think, honestly, right now, let's say we

lose this right here. All that says is one is done, two is in progress. Maybe we'll pull back 70.5 down here to the weekly pivot at 26.750. But that's just a 1-2 and then you're off. So you got a 1-2, 1-2, and then 1-2. It's just a higher low, just another higher low. Yeah. Until you're losing minimally this 24 change here, why are you even thinking about low? It makes no sense. Everybody out there,

oh, listen, if it drops $10, it's going to 12. What the hell? It doesn't make any sense. XRP is popping today again at 80 80 cents but i kind of hinted at the fact that we usually see this consolidation in bitcoin and we get these crazy altcoin moves and it's still kind of just been muted yeah um are you looking at xrp at all i i do have an xrp chart yeah i've got uh let's see here appear real quick i mean that was that that move was crazy 45 cents to 90 i mean we had it going up but um i was not looking i was not looking toward a dollar at that time you know you mean that they that we didn't know uh that the court decision would finally come in it would be so favorable yeah i guess sometimes you get a bigger move on the news than you expect.

But yeah. Yeah, you know, we had that move. We were looking for a move up, but again, not quite that high. I think, you know, we're looking here. It looks like it may be just about ready to break. If it breaks out above that $81.95 kind of area, I think that suggests that wave four is done over here instead of coming down

a bit further here. Uh, and then we're looking up here, you know, a dollar 18. Well, let me see from here. I get us a target up there at around, yeah, around, right around a dollar 18 or so. Um, you know, and I think that they'll get us one up off the bottom and then we'll pull back. Um, but I mean, that's still got a bit more juice left in it. This looks like a wave three. It's big, large, you know, big, large candle spreads, large spike of volume. I mean, that looks like wave three pretty clearly there. You can see we pull back just beyond 38.2, which is a wave four, you know, potentially

ABC done there. That makes wise. So yeah, looking forward to keep pushing up here and then looking forward to potentially head up there toward 118 are there any alter other alters specifically looking at at the moment uh well i've got a couple here i've got um i like maker here um i've been hearing a lot of people i haven't looked at it but it's i'm definitely noticing a buzz about it on twitter mkr yeah about what about maker yeah i just keep seeing it passively mentioned you know it should grab my attention when all of a sudden i see a

bunch of people talking about it yeah yeah i mean there's this long-term breakout we got that large candle spread large spike of volume we've got what appears to be uh accumulation down here when we look at that volume and price action um uh, if we're looking at this, I think this is kind of building this wave four here. I think we get a move up maybe to around 1275 or so and then further up here, you know, and then we'll pull back kind of into this triangle here and then maybe up there around 1655. But I think overall, you know, we kind of get this movement back and then we end up here around 3180. But overall, you know, if we're hitting 3180, we should be looking at new all-time highs, I think. Pretty much when we're looking at that, I just think, you know, that's kind of setting it up

there to do that. So I like that as far as Maker goes. Again, looking for a big movement up, pull back, and then ultimately up here around 3180. And then if we get there, probably a new all-time high um i've got plenty of times well there's a lot of coins i'm waiting i got a lot of coins i'm waiting for new all-time high so let's do that yeah yeah exactly um again great looking reaccumulation range going on here looks like this might be the low we won't get a spring looks like just the last point of support broke out through that um the yellow resistance right there. If we pop up above the swing high right here around that, what is that, about 19 cents or so, 18.70, I think that gets us up there around 27.50

for the top of the range. And ultimately, I think that does lead out and take us up through the uh the weekly pivot here at 62 44 and i would be looking probably closer up here around two dollars and 75 cents maybe something like that um and then once again if we get up there and then 15 x's i like it cool yeah yeah i think i think it's set up great for for for some more run, you know, um, other than that, I've never seen clay. I don't know if I've ever,

it shows I'm a boomer or something, but I don't think I've ever heard that. Um, yeah, you know, and one more, another great reaccumulation right here. I mean,

volume price action. This is comp USDT. Um, you know, you had this large, this is volume here, just taking it up and out through the range here. Retest the race support. you know, I had this large, so there's a volume here, just taking it up and out through the range here, retested raise support. I, you know, I think we had up. That's literally exactly what you were, that's exactly what you were talking about earlier,

by the way, for people who are paying attention, it was the other way. You were saying you'd want to see massive volume selling all the way from the top of the range to the bottom. This is just the opposite with the massive volume buying from the bottom of the range to the top. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I mean, you, through the range, you've got volume dropping off. Again, that's what you want to see. Generally, when you've got accumulation or reaccumulation going on, you want to see that lack of selling, you know, the selling just dying off as the range develops.

And then when you get that spring or that LPS, like we're talking about the last one, then you want to see these larger candlesticks. You want to see these large volume coming through it. You know, I think we get up here at 217. Like I said, I think we kind of maybe move back, pull back, and then break out through that, really through that weekly pivot. But ultimately, looking at 217.30 there as a starting point, once again, we get there. That gets us back above that kind of support resistance area. And I think at that point, it just, it's a

setup for, you know, a breakout hire. I think there's a lot of great opportunities right now for people that can handle the ups and downs along the way and have the patience to kind of hold it for a bit. Yeah, I agree. Anything else before we go? I know here we are, as usual, right at the end of the time. No, no, I mean, I think that's good. There's the kind of three ones I kind of look at the moment here.

And then, of course, again, I think that's good. There's the kind of three ones I kind of look at the moment here. And then of course, you know, again, really great, you know, Bitcoin and the dollar watch and link. I mean, you know, we can say link. I've been talking about link forever today. With stock people, they should be buying it there when it did that little dip down to five dollars. And here we are at 680. And I think yesterday was up at 725 or so already. So we're getting ready to see a same breakout we saw with uh with comp there we've got this nice big move out so um i think link still continues to look good i'm still i'm still a fan of litecoin talked about that back in october at around 50 um looking for that one to take off you know ethereum same thing op i think it's probably optimism guys we're bullish here

bullish around here. Good. No reason not to be at the moment. So, I mean. Yeah. Yeah. Just read the charts. Thank you, man. Guys, everyone, of course, follow TX West Capital on Twitter.

Check out the Discord group. What's the website now? Is it? TexasWest.Capital. TexasWest.Capital. That's right. Yeah. Perfect. So, guys, go check that out.

Because you know Chris mentored me. He could probably do a pretty good job with you. If he could take this mush brain and turn it into something functional, then you guys should be good. Thank you, Chris, man. I'll see you next week for sure. Sounds good, man. Alright, man. Later. Alright, everybody. Gotta move on to Twitter Spaces in 17

minutes. We're doing something different there. We don't usually do really like markets on Twitter Spaces, but Ran was pretty passionate. They wanted to talk altcoins. We got a something different there. We don't usually do really like markets on Twitter spaces, but Ran was pretty passionate. They wanted to talk altcoins. We got a whole bunch of your favorite Twitter personalities and traders coming over there probably to, I don't know, argue about stuff.

But if you'd like to hear people potentially argue, this might be... Actually, I think it'll be great. I think it'll be full of alpha. Looking forward to it. See you guys there. Bye. See you tomorrow.