The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin’s Fair Value Is Over $50,000 - And Will Double! l Mark Yusko

Episode Date: December 12, 2023

Investing legend Mark Yusko joins to discuss his thesis that fair value of Bitcoin is over $50,000 - and will double at the halving! Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $10,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=453131... ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin's fair value is in the low 50,000s. Not my words, but those of today's guests, Mark Yusko, and not recently, but when he was on this program a few months ago and very publicly all through last summer and last spring. And if I recall, maybe even last winter and fall, when everybody was screaming about the crypto winter that was yet to thaw. He said it was crypto spring, probably a year ago, and said we should get up to 50,000 before the halving. The best part is that after the halving, that should double. Mark and I are going to discuss this and God knows what,

because that's what happens when we talk for 30 minutes. And of course, I've got Wick on the back end at 9.30 sharing some chart requests that you guys threw up on Twitter. This is going to be a great conversation. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I am Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. I'm not going to Let's go. You've been saying it for a long time. Yeah, look, I mean, so let me give credit where credit is due. So Tim Peterson, a friend of mine who wrote something called N Squared Crypto, had created this Metcalfe's Law model. Now, the original Metcalfe's Law model that I found back in 2014 was actually pretty darn good. And I wish I could give credit to the guy that did it, but I can't remember his handle on Twitter.

By the way, I'll never call it X. It's always going to be Twitter. It's Twitter for me, man. Forever Twitter. He posted this chart, and it's a parabolic chart. It's a nonlinear logarithmic regression. And it predicted that on November 6th of 2017, we'd hit 10,000 and is off by six days and actually hit on November 1st. I look pretty good model, but then it started to diverge a

little bit over the next few years and was talking with Tim and he said, look, their decay factor is too high, is too low. So people come into the network. And anyway, what is Metcalfe's law? Metcalfe's law is a theory or a arithmetic rule created by this guy, I think his name is Thomas Metcalf at MIT. And he noticed that there's this guy Sarnoff that did work on how networks grow. And it was a simple theory that if you had a big antenna and everyone who could hear that signal was part of a network. And that was fine. But that said that networks grew linearly. But Metcalfe came along and said, well, no, because if Mark and Scott both hear it, maybe they'll communicate. So there'll be more connections.

And so every time you add a node, you get multiple connections. And it's actually an exponential factor. And the difference between linear growth and exponential growth is the key here. And so anyway, all this just goes to say that sometimes people join a network and then they leave. Sometimes they come and they add value. But bottom line, Tim fixed the decay factor and his model has just been spot on. It said we were 30K fair value back when we pumped all the way to 69. Look, we always go above fair value in crypto fall. At the opening, you were talking about the seasons. And look, I didn't make this up. I've observed it. I focus on it, but it's not my thing. But the idea that somehow the four-year cycle is going to go away just doesn't make any sense to me.

It's hard-coded into Bitcoin's program. And that's the halving. And so what happens is the halving occurs. And if the price didn't move, what would happen? Most of the miners would go out of business. Think about it. Their electricity costs are fixed. Their machine costs are fixed. And so if suddenly the block rewards get cut in half, if the price doesn't adjust, some of them have to go out of business. So what we have seen in each of the previous cycles is the price doubles. That makes sense. That doubling is a fair value doubling. But what happens is if

something goes up a lot quickly, what happens? People get stupid. They start to tumble in. And the way to think about it is after the collapse, right? We all know the crypto winters. So winter is when we have the collapse. And what is the collapse? The collapse is where we fall from craziness, euphoria, back to fair value, but we don't stop at fair value. This is the way bear markets work in any asset. We go right through fair value and we go to washed out levels where no one will ever buy commodities again. No one will ever buy Nvidia again. No one will ever buy Bitcoin again. Yeah, whatever. And I actually remember being on TV December 2018. We were at 3,200. And the host on CNBC says,

don't you think it's going away? Like, no. In fact, we just issued the Morgan Creek Digital Bitcoin Challenge. And we challenged anyone, anyone just issued the Morgan Creek Digital Bitcoin Challenge and we challenged anyone, anyone to take the other side. Million dollar charity bet like the hedge fund bet with Buffett actually even called Warren. He picked up the phone and we talked and he decided not to do it. But we actually had a dialogue back and forth for about a week. But we couldn't get anybody to take the other side. They took the S&P. We take Bitcoin for the next decade. We got one guy who said he would take it and his son talked him out of it. But because he was in the asset management business, the son was like, look, there's no upside for us. If we lose, it's bad. If we win, who cares? We're supposed to win.

So no one would take it. Now, it's a good If we win, who cares? We're supposed to win. So no one would take it. Now, it's a good thing they didn't because Bitcoin has crushed the S&P over the last five years. I mean, it's not close. But the point is, in crypto, when we go down to this crazy level, and fair value at that time was around $11,000. So at $3,000, really easy to say, you should buy this. And what investors do, they buy things below fair

value. That's what I've done my whole career. Smart investors. Smart investors. Because I would say your average investor does the opposite. And they sell their winners and hold their losers. Well, Scott, as you have correctly pointed out, sadly, if you look at the JP Morgan data, if you just bought stocks over the last 20 years, you made eight and a half. If you bought bonds, you made six and a half. So all you do is pick one and just hold it or do 50-50 or rebalance. No, the average investor made 2.9. Why? Because the average investor does two things really, really well. We buy what we wish we would have bought. And we're spectacular at that. We pile in after something goes up because it feels good. When it's down low, it doesn't feel good

to buy it. But that's when you want to invest. You want to actually make yourself uncomfortable. Second thing we do really well is we sell what we're about to need. So investing is the only business I know. And I've said this for years. It's the only business I know when things go on sale, everyone runs out of the store. You put wedding dresses on sale, people will run over each other to get Black Friday. Last week's crusty donuts, last week's crusty donuts for 40 cents off. Dude, those are good donuts. It's 100% true. But no, put Bitcoin on sale, put investments on. Anyway, so the average investor, you're right, doesn't do it the right way. But investing, capital I investing is about buying things below fair value. Okay. That's the idea. But then you start to create. So then we get out

of crypto winter and we go to crypto spring. Now, crypto spring is not boing, V-shaped bottom, everything's going back. Spring is wet, nasty and windy and cold. And it's kind of like just you're bouncing along the bottom a little bit of. But that's when you accumulate well below fair value. Then we get to crypto summer. Now, we're in crypto summer right now. We started crypto summer in June.

We'll be in crypto summer till right after the halving next June. And what is crypto summer? Well, crypto summer is where we slowly accrete back to fair value. And what have we done, right? We got washed out, right? We had crypto spring, and then we got a nor'easter, right? We got hurricane Sam idiot comes in and washes us down from 25 all the way down to 15, six. And remember people were like, it's over. It's over. He told you it was a scam. Especially Solana. That was super over. Well, super over. Of course it was over. And Sol solana solana needed to be over then because the tech had some problems and they needed the time and they needed to and they needed the uh they needed

the washout of the big holders but that wasn't what we were talking about you go ahead no no no but but i think that's a good point right that sam did some bad stuff around solana some other scam coins but i mean i'm not calling solana scam coin other scam coins, but I mean, I'm not calling Solana scam coin, other Sam coins that he, but, but there were some scams in there and Solana is not a scam, but Solana did have some technical problems that they claim they have fixed. And I, I, I changed my mind, but we'll come back to that later. Um, I was very public about the tech problems. The guy convinced me that they've been fixed. I said, all right, fine.

This was back on September 3rd. So, by the way, I'm taking the full credit for the recent pump because of that. Well done. You should have called me in advance. Thanks. Just kidding around. But what's interesting is crypto summer, we accrete back to fair value. And from that bottom, from that washed out Hurricane Sam bottom, what have we done?

Higher highs and higher lows. It's the most beautiful accumulation pattern you have ever seen. And that is investors. Investors buying below fair value. Now, when we get to fair value at 50, what's going to happen? The halving is going to occur. Well, then what happens? Well, we add a zero. So if you go back to the first halving, we went from 10 to 100. Then we went from 100 to 1,000. Then we went from 1,000 to 10,000.

Now we're going to go from 10,000 to 100,000. That's a 10x growth of the network. Again, following this Metcalfe's law curve, that is a beautiful, beautiful accumulation pattern. I mean, it's just absolutely stunning. And when this occurs, and it's also an amazing cup and handle pattern, if you look at it over a little longer scale, I mean, beautiful. And all of this says that the investors are buying. But as we approach fair value, what happens? The traders come in. And we've seen that a little bit now. The traders are coming. Traders aren't

bad. Traders just don't give a crap about what they're buying. They just want movement. They'll buy, they'll sell, they'll trade. I'm not very good at it. I don't really do it. I'm a boring value guy. I like to buy things below fair value and hold them. That's easy. I'm not a very good trader. But then what happens as you start to get above fair value, as we enter into crypto fall next June, then we'll start to get above fair value. Now we'll go from that 50 to 100. And that 50 to 100, it's probably going to happen really fast. Why do I say that?

Two reasons. One, it's what history tells us, that FOMO kicks in. But this time we got a massive tailwind. Last time we had GBTC, about $10 billion came into GBTC. We went from 10 to 60 really fast. Then Elon put out the famous quote, went from 60 to 30 in a heartbeat. And then we went back to 69 because Michael Saylor bailed us out. Well, this time, if fair value is at 50 and we're going to 100, that 50 to 100 candle, I think it's going to be fast. I even wore my green pants today for the green candle. So I think it's going to be... Pardon? So can we get it today then? By the way, it's going to be... Pardon?

So can we get it today then? By the way, it's absurd. I'm looking. It's like cognitive dissonance, not remembering, but literally from 60 to 30 in two weeks after Elon Musk said, yeah, after that news. I mean, that was absolute insanity.

Then that very slow summer. But remember, fair value then was 30. It was 30. Yeah. And so we were back to fair value. But then what happens is the speculators come in. Well, what's a speculator? A speculator is simply the opposite side of a hedger. Well, what's a hedger? A hedger is a miner, gold miner, oil well operator that has to sell their production forward in the futures market. And so speculator has to take the other side. That's a good speculator. There are other speculators who just come in and they're just like, I'm buying it because it's moving.

But here's the problem. It doesn't stop there. Then the gamblers come in. What's a gambler? A gambler doesn't give any, they don't care what it is. As long as it's moving, they're buying it with leverage. And the leverage is what causes the parabolic craziness where we go way above fair value and then you crash. And it's true of every asset. Look at every asset over time that's had these parabolic moves, whether it was Intel in 2000. I love this. Everyone's like, AI, it's this great new thing. Are you joking? AI was coined 68 years ago. The term was coined 68 1980. It was the year of AI in Time Magazine. In 2000, Intel stock went up 20 times. It looks like a Bitcoin chart. It went up 20 times in less than two years because it's chips. We're going to change the world in AI. Now it's down 75% since then. It's crazy. And NVIDIA is up a lot because AI is not new,

but everyone thinks it's new. And so you get these parabolic moves, but then you get a crash. NVIDIA has crashed twice more than 90%, like 12 times more than 50%. Who bought it in 1999 at the IPO and held it to today? Almost no one. Same number of people that didn't buy Amazon at the IPO and hold it to today. That's my favorite story you tell. That's my favorite story you tell. Bezos, his wife, and their parents. And Bill Miller. And Bill Miller.

Jeff, mom, dad, ex-wife, Bill Miller. That's it. Only five people in the whole world. And maybe there's a couple of, but I think it's only five. So, so you, listen, this was based on you tweeted to the Kobe EC letter. He said, options markets are suggesting that Bitcoin will hit 50,000 by January. This also happens to be the same month that Bitcoin ETF approvals are expected. That's why you sort of reminded us that you had said that that was the fair value before. It does seem like this is all aligning quite well. January 8th. Crown the king

on the king's birthday. Is that Larry King's birthday or something? Larry Fink's birthday? No, Elvis. Elvis' birthday. Oh, the king. But the king that's going to be crowned is going to be Larry Fink. Larry Fink is going to...

What's great is when I was growing up there's thing called the the Wizard of Id and one of the the lines was the king is a Fink right I've actually tweeted that that picture out um so look Larry is going to be crown king and he's going to be first I think only still I'm starting to weaken on that a little bit but I'm gonna stick with it I don't think he needs to be the only because I think he's got the AUM lined up. He knows exactly what's coming and they're going to win the marketing battle. I know he doesn't need to be, but let's just say the powers that be, they like monopolies. They like them. They like to create them. They like to push them. They like to nurture them. And they like to make it hard for that.

Look, the people that should have got approved were the Winklevoss twins. They were the first to- In 2015 or 14. Yes, yes, yes. It should have been approved back then. I mean, now you can say, oh, it wasn't, wasn't mature enough market. You mean different than the triple levered ETFs that have lost 99.99999% of their value that people buy all the time or the, the triple levered Fang ETF. I love that one. I mean, we have levered weed ETFs, man. We've got it all. You can inverse Kramer, but you can't Bitcoin.

Yeah, right. That's right. We've got it all. You can inverse Kramer, but you can't Bitcoin. Yeah, that's right. We've got inverse Kramer and inverse Cathy. Is there an inverse Cathy? Of course there is. Of course you can inverse Cathy. It's called SARC. Short arc. SARC. Yeah, I love that one of the huge news stories that I keep seeing, by the way, is Cathy Wood selling Coinbase, Cathy Wood selling Grayscale, and you get these terrible takes on Twitter. We'll call it Twitter. For people who don't understand, saying she's bearish, she's selling,

literally everything she says is bullish, and she openly says she can't be weighted more than 10% and has to rebalance all these things. Yet it's a story every single day when she sells one of them. And it has nothing to do with the fact that Coinbase is up 300% this year. Yeah, you might want to take some profit.

Good investors, good portfolio managers actually rebalance their portfolios. And if you don't have new capital coming in, right, because people are looking at the recent performance instead of her long-term performance, then you have to rebalance. But yeah, the negative takes on incremental moves that don't matter are truly dazzling. And I read something this morning that I won't name names, but a guy I actually like and respect in the business, he's like, people are overestimating the demand from the Bitcoin ETF. And I mean, he certainly could be right, but I don't think so. I really do think this is by the rumor, by the news, quoting Dan Moorhead, who coined that phrase. And the reason is, it's different than the futures ETF. The futures etf was a by the rumor sell the news in fact sell the news quickly you said that you said that in advance on this very show as well by the

way yeah yeah like you said it and you were aggressive about it it's nefarious it's bad they're doing it for a very specific reason look at at what happened when they launched CBOE and CME. It will be the top and it was the top. Yep. Well, I appreciate, I appreciate the shout out. This time is different because anyone, in my opinion, institutionally who's wanted to short Bitcoin in size has plenty of products to do that. They're not waiting for a spot ETF for that opportunity. Exactly. And the spot is different in that in the paper world, and this is not just Bitcoin, right? This is true of any ETF in the futures market, whether it's gold, whether it's silver, whether it's cows or cattle, it can be anything. If you can create a paper thing out of thin air and sell it, you will put downward pressure on an asset. That's how gold

has been spoofed for years by JP Morgan. I mean, look, and I'm not accusing somebody blindly. I mean, JP Morgan pays fines every year for spoofing, but they're like, yeah, we made 20, we paid one, cost of doing business, whatever. Good. And so, great. But it is different. With the spot, everyone's like, oh, everyone's going to front run it. No, no, no, no, no.

So, when I buy the ETF in my UBS family harmony account, right? I have this family harmony account with my brother-in-law at UBS. I'm not allowed to buy anything. The day the ETF is approved. I can transfer money into it. That's real money that then they have to do a create. They have to create a new share. They have to buy spot Bitcoin. Now here's the problem. Three quarters of the coins haven't sold in a year. They haven't traded. We have $8 billion of trading volume every single day. It's the same Bitcoin over and over and over, like a tumbler. I mean, a washing machine, not a tumbler like a Heider. But the key is that the price is going to rise because the demand is going to exceed supply.

It's simple econ 101. And it could be a big move because $10 billion from GBTC plus Saylor singing his praises moved us from $10 to $60 in about 10 weeks. Also, we had the end of crypto fall, the Thanksgiving pump, all that good stuff. Okay, great. But this is, this is different. This is real demand that I think could stretch. Look, I think it's going to be $300 billion before all is said and done. That's 1% of the assets held in UBS, Merrill Lynch, all these places that aren't allowed. It's crazy. If you're Merrill Lynch, not only can you not buy GBTC, they won't even take you as a client if you made your money in crypto and all the GBTC money is going to flow into a spot ETF, all the BITO money will eventually flow into a spot ETF because who's going to want to hold a superior, inferior futures ETF and all this exercise demand. So then the question is, we talk about, I agree with you, the four year cycle, if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

But if we get this approval in January, three months or two or three months ahead of the having three months, are we just going to be way ahead of that four-year cycle and what happens then because if we're you know if we uh levitate from 50 to 100 and the having hits maybe that's the sell the news for a while and then we wait the six or nine that's a great great perspective i i've said that um this cycle will be the same. We'll probably have an excitement around the launch, but here's what looks like it's going to happen. I will give him credit because I actually like his thought process, but it's Gabor Gerbach from VanEck. And he doesn't think there's going to be as much in those early days that goes in. And look, if it plays out that way, that will actually help the long-term cycle. For sure.

But if there is a lot that comes in early, what will likely happen is we'll get a big candle and then some FUD, right? There'll be some FUD, whether it's Elizabeth Warren. It'll be Elizabeth. We all know. And somebody, whether it's coming, it'll be Elizabeth Warren. We all know. And somebody said that we couldn't get through this without saying Elizabeth Warren. I got her face. I got to show her face every stream just so people can freak out. There she is. There she is, guys. It's unbelievably, it's incredible. One, I didn't realize this, that she's literally got zero bills passed in her tenure. People are saying co-sponsored one, seven or eight,

but she's proposed about 300 bills and has never passed one. But this one is gaining a lot of steam. I mean, that is the bluster versus the result. The Fed has predicted inflation and CPI like 289 times or whatever it is. They're over. Like, I could flip a coin and be right half the is. They're over. Like I could flip a coin and be right half the time. They're over. You got to work hard to be over. So she's got to work hard to have no bills passed, but somebody will, will FUD. And then I think we'll have, you know, a mini correction,

but look, what's going to happen. The traders are going to come. Then the speculators are going to come, then the speculators are going to come, and then the gamblers are coming. And we're going through 100K fair value. I don't think the leverage is going to be as big this time. So I don't think we've gone two to two and a half times fair value in previous cycles. I think this time it's more like one and a half. Yeah. 130 to 150 150 somewhere in there 150 yeah 150 is 135 you know max kaiser's out saying no 200k look i love max i love stacy they're great it's possible i just don't think there's enough leverage this time and with the smackdown on

binance and the smackdown on coinbase and the smackdown on the Twins, I mean, I just, I don't think there's as much leverage. Now, I could be wrong and leverage will come and then we'll hit the 200. And then the question would be, will any of us be smart enough to take our profits? No, because then we're going to be back here at like 60, like 60, two years later going, what the hell did we do? You know, it all was so obvious. It's just the cycle. We all seem to forget about the fact that the cycle is only really hot for a little while. You know, you talked about the parabolic, the moves go parabolic, which by the way, for people who dollar cost average has been a huge boon because you could have started dollar cost averaging at 69K and you're massively up right now because it just wasn't up there that long. Yeah. No, look, here's the thing. The reality is we went from zero and

I know we got to get going here, but we went from zero 15 years ago, 15 years ago, we, you know, a 15th birthday here in January, kind of week before the approval, and 15 years from zero $850 billion of value. How to do that? Not a straight line, up, down, up, down, up, but every high is higher, and every low is lower. And I mean, every low is higher. And that is an accumulation. There are now hundreds of millions of people. Eventually, there will be billions of people that use this asset. And what's really fun, and I'll leave you with this thought, right?

I've been talking about this forever. The cycle of 54 with the mainframe, 68 with the microchip, 82 with the personal computer, 96 with the internet, 2010 with the mobile net. 2024 is the truth net. It hadn't even started. The cycle that we're all going to be excited about, and it's going to go for 14 years, hasn't even started. The tech evolves and then gets ready to blast off. And from 2024 to 2028 is going to be like 96 to 00. Now, then there's a bust and then we'll have the Pest.com moment and everybody will give up. And someone, maybe Mark Andreessen or maybe this Mark will say, all those ideas were right. I'm just quoting Mark Andreessen from 2001. All those ideas were right. Pets.com,

Webvan, they're just early. And guess what? We have Chuy. And it took 20 years, but that's okay. We got a long time. And this is going to be here for a long, long time. And the other person who has their birthday on the 8th, along with Elvis, is my son. So my son turns 13 and his present will be the Bitcoin ETF. Or a trip to Graceland, obviously. Or a trip to Graceland. That'd be good, too. It's just funny.

I know it's wrapping up here, but people keep asking me every time I go on an interview, what will be the narrative of this cycle? And I say all the ones from last cycle that were too early. I don't know which coin is going to ride it, but we're certainly going to see DeFi, NFT, Metaverse, all these things rearing their heads again. No, come on, Scott. All of it is coming, right? All of it. DeFi, it's coming. And it's coming in size, but it's the tech keeps improving. And the things you start with aren't the things you necessarily end with because they build on each other and you learn from the failures or the mistakes.

But here's the thing that it's the reason I get up out of bed every morning. It's the reason I'm having more fun today than I've ever had in the rest of my career. I get to hang out with the smartest, most talented, most passionate, world-changing business builders that I've ever seen. And that's just because I wasn't a venture capitalist 30 years ago, and that's not what I did. But I allocated to venture capitalists. I didn't realize why they loved what they did so much. It is so much fun.

And here's the thing. This is real. I've been around a lot of cycles. It just means I'm old. Talent migrates to opportunity. This talent wave is bigger than anyone previously. And it's because, as Newton said, I'm not that smart, right? I just stand on the shoulders of giants. Now, he was pretty smart, but we are standing on the shoulders of giants. Each technology gets better, but it doesn't get linearly better. It gets exponentially better. And the amount of technological change in the next 50 years is a quadrillion X, a quadrillion X in the next 50 years. things that we can't even imagine being able to do with money and value and time.

All of this is being built by the smartest people on the planet. If you don't get excited about that, I don't know, you don't have a pulse. I just don't understand. You always get me excited. Everybody, Mark Yusko on Twitter X, Trek, Twix, Twix?

Can we call it Twixix i'm just going to twitter i will never call it x i hate x i like twitter i you know it's just it's just my thing and by the way you have a show every week like i yeah your podcast i do i do on the margin every friday uh releases on saturday mornings i always call it the best hour of my week this is a pretty good half hour um okay but next time we'll double it so we can call it the best hour of my week. This is a pretty good half hour. Okay. Next time we'll double it so we can call it your best hour. There we go. There we go. Mark, thank you so much. Always a pleasure. Always an honor to have you on. Everybody follow Mark. Do it now.

All right. Thanks, Scooter. See you, man. Have a great day. Bye. All right, guys. The amazing Mark Yusko, as always, come on, just drops the heat, drops the heat. All right, guys. Now, if you want to know what's actually going on in the market, let's take a look at some charts. I've got Wick here, of course, and I threw up a tweet last night asking you guys for some chart requests, and he's going to look at some of them. What's up, man?

How are you? Hey, what's going on, Scott? Let me first start by saying how much I really enjoy listening to Mark Hugo. I mean, the guys, you can really tell that all he really does is investing. I love it. I love listening to that guy. Wow. You're so lucky to talk to him. He's been doing it for like 100 years, man. I mean, I think he was in charge of the entire Notre Dame endowment. I mean, this guy's just a legend. I love the casually like drops in conversation.

Well, that week-long conversation I was having with Warren Buffett about value investing. Cool. Cool. Sign me up. What a little silent flex though, right? I love it. I came to listen to his podcast on Saturday. I didn't know about that.

So I'll check it out. That's cool. Yeah, he does it with Mike from Blockworks. It's great. So hey, man, where are we at with the market right now? I want to take a look. Obviously, we've had this, I'll call it a small correction for now, right? I mean, we're almost at 42. We're just topped about 45, almost went down to 40. What are you thinking? I've been obviously looking at Trading Alpha myself quite a bit. I noticed that on the daily, we kind of lost the

green dots for now, but nothing's really changed. Sure. So let me share my screen here. Let me know when you can see it. Gotcha. Yep. You're up. Okay, cool. So let's start with, let's actually go to the Bitcoin weekly chart, right? I know everyone's freaking out because we've had this little correction. So let's talk about where we are. Let's go ahead and let's put on some indicators here. Let's liven up the charts. There we go. You can zoom out even a little bit. So yeah, everyone's talking about this correction, Scott, and they're all scared. You can feel it in the market. Everyone's gone quiet. But if you actually look at what we've done here, let's see from the lows i think it's about 80 percent yeah 100 189 from the lows okay and let's look at how far we've now come down on this correction just to put it in perspective okay

so if you're taking it from the wick lows we drop 10 percent if you're taking it from the close you know we're at seven percent right so ten to to 7% correction on 189% move from the lows. Yeah. So this is a very minor correction. I actually called it a correction for ants yesterday. I'm not worried at all. I think this is very healthy. And if you look at the Bitcoin chart with our indicators, right, that I've been talking about, we still have green dots. We haven't even lost these green dots. So even the trend on a micro scale is still very, very strong. And I talk about this a lot. Whenever we go into this parabolic phase, okay, these dots are really the main thing that I'm looking at, right? I look for the stage twos. Once we break out in the stage two over here was part two of stage two was part

one of stage two here. Once we break into these, but specifically once we go parabolic, to me, there's nothing like watching the dots because once they end, that's when you see the dynamics start to change, especially on these macro timeframe weekly charts. So for me, Bitcoin looks very healthy. This doesn't scare me at all. And if anyone wants some tips on how to kind of handle your emotion, stop looking at the 15 and five minute charts, right? And if you get scared, zoom out, zoom out to that weekly chart and put it in perspective. Okay. One thing that I also like to do is I also like to trade with the trend, right? I call what you call a top down approach. So I'll always start with the weekly. I'll ask myself, okay,

does it look bullish? And then I'll start going down, right? If I want to swing trade, I'll always start with the weekly. I'll ask myself, okay, does it look bullish? And then I'll start going down, right? If I want to swing trade, I'll go down to the daily chart and I'll see if it's in confluence with the weekly. And if it is, I'll take a trade. If it's not, I won't, right? So as you can see on the weekly here, Scott, we're looking pretty good. We've got a little pullback, little correction on the weekly that you barely noticed, let's go to the daily chart. Okay. If we zoom in here on the daily chart, let's see. Let's okay. So we've got our indicators on here. Yeah. The same thing that I showed you last time, you know, a breakdown to the downside. We based, we started forming some B's, some bottom signals on the basing. This is your stage one basing above it. Below is stage one, break above it into stage two on a squeeze breakout arrow. And yeah, where are we now? Right. We have finally lost dots on the daily chart with this correction, but we haven't even pulled back to the track line. Okay. So even on the daily chart for me, this correction is kind of, it's kind of weak. I actually had some people like Shardi and I were talking in the,

in DMS yesterday, and I really wanted to see what happened today. Right. I really wanted to see if we got, if we had a follow through down day. Right. And we don't. Another thing that I will say though, is when we have these big down moves, I do look for the next couple of candles to kind of retrace at least 50% of this move. Okay. Which we haven't yet. So these are the few dynamics I'm watching, but as I said, in context, right, this large move that we've had up to have a correction only come down here.

If we don't break lower, um, that to me shows a lot of relative strength. I mean, normally Bitcoin is so volatile. We'll see a 20 to 30% drawdown on these corrections and it's not really happening. So for me, this is actually pretty bullish to me. What do you think, Scott? Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, on shorter timeframes, I think it looks like we could correct a bit more, but this doesn't worry me at all. I think that when you look into that, this was just another leverage flush, right? Almost 400 million in a matter of an hour, basically, it was flushed out of the system. Long's got smoked because they had built up and here we are. I just don't see

anything fundamentally changing. I don't see a massive correction before we get ETF news. It just doesn't worry me. 100%. Leverage flush, just like you say, right? These are trading decks trying to target those liquidity pools as I like to call them and splash the pools, right. That's all they're trying to do. And what's interesting is if you put a 20 period moving average on this, okay. This pullback is actually tagging right to the 20 period moving average. I actually like that average for a little correction and then a bounce up.

So I'm trying to see what happens on the reaction to this, but so far, Scott, it's just a 20, 20, 20 moving average kind of tag. Right. And again, we haven't even tagged the, the, the track line. So I'm very bullish. This doesn't scare me. In fact, I wish it kind of went a little lower. There's some alt coins that, so we can get into that. I was hoping to buy at a bigger discount. Yeah, let's check it out. So let's go to ETHBTC. Okay. Yeah.

Now, ETHBTC for me is, I think, a really good proxy for the altcoin market. Okay. I think it's a really good proxy. And what we see here is we're tagging a very fundamental support line here. And we actually have a little double bottom happening here. So I'm looking for a bounce up, but I'm not really I don't really go into any plays until I see some confirmation. Right. We still have red dots. We are just hovering above this support. So let's see what happens. But I would tell everyone to watch this this line here.

And let's make sure we don't break below it and close well below it. Right. It's okay to deviate below because that's what crypto does. It's a 50 vol assets and it's always going to, it's always going to, you know, kind of have these little deviations, but I like the fact that we are holding right here and I want to watch this line a little more. Okay. Now going on and moving up forward from, uh, from the proxy, let's look at some of the altcoins that have actually really outperformed. Okay. Let's look at the ones that have really, really been shining because for me, I'm a really big believer in relative strength, right? I believe that if you have altcoins that are really not drawing down as much, um, on these corrections that, you know, when we get into a better market environment, those are probably going to be the ones that outperform, right? A lot of people are looking at the ones that haven't popped yet. And, you know, they're getting into those, hoping that those catch up. And that's really not my forte. I like relative strength. So let's start with

AVAX here. Okay. Now AVAX, let me see. Let's start. Let's actually start on the daily and let's put on some indicators here. Let's put on this and this right here. We can even put on some bottoms. Okay. So you can see here, we tag some bottoms here. Again, your stage one basing, we try to break out of your stage one basing. Okay. Not just yet. Need a little bit more basing. Then we start your stage two uptrend. And this has really been one that's been outperforming. A lot of people have looked at this candle here and they've gotten quite scared because it has drawn back quite a bit, of course, for the correction.

But then I might point to this candle right here, which kind of did something similar. Right. And look at the look at the next day that happened. Right. So this is just the volatility that comes with crypto, and especially altcoins. I think that this still looks really healthy. We're still holding green dots in this parabolic move up. So I actually still like this.

And as you can see, this parabolic move up a lot of times, right? We go from that stage two basing, sorry, that stage two uptrend. We start to form another basing pattern. I talk about this all the time. It's so simple, especially when you marry it with our indicators, but stage three basing pattern going sideways here, we start to, and you can even draw a little, little range here if you wanted to, but then we go through this shaded squeeze again. Like I talk about a lot on your shows that happened right here again, to start this little breakout. And, um, this tells you that volatility has been bent up. We wait for the breakout arrow. It is to the upside. It is on

green dots. And here is your parabolic advance. And this is happening. I mean, this is happening all the time in this little bull market that we've seen. And again, to reiterate, I simply am just watching the dots to see when they end. When they end. Then I try to look at my stop losses and I start to manage them a little higher. Okay. But yeah, I think AVAX looks good. What do you think, Scott? I 100% agree with your sentiment. I've been pretty heavily invested from last cycle in AVAX and a lot of the coins like XAVA, which AVA launched their launchpad and the things are pulling 300, 400, 500% in a matter of days, everything in the ecosystem. So, and I've been in Injective, which I see you have right up there. Since last cycle, AM was buying again at like two or three

bucks this time, and it just made literally a new all-time high. I can't find another altcoin that's been around that long that's now on a blue sky breakout as we speak or attempting one. Yeah, I'm not sure I've actually seen anyone else smash injective like you have. So well done on that one. We can look at that next. I am in injective. I'm not in as big of a position as I'd hope to be. But yes, one more thing before we get to injective, let's look at this weekly chart of AVAX2, remember, because I always like to take a step back. And as you can see here, right here was our basing. We got a little bottom signals right at the bottom, little breakout

arrow strength arrow. Okay. And as we broke above this line again, this is what, you know, I like, this is your stage two uptrend. So we're looking very healthy here. Um, even on this pullback, I mean, it's still a great weekly candle in my opinion. Looks good. Let's move to Injective like you wanted to see. Let me go down on my notes here. Okay, so Injective, let's start with the weekly. Weekly, let's turn on our indicators.

Interesting. You're on Binance. Yours shows a high of 27. Mine showed a high of 26, 194. If you look at mine on the Binance chart, it's breaking through the all-time high. Yours looks like it wicked through. Yeah. Again, this is a lot of times we'll have followers, right?

I'm sure you have the same thing. And I'll say to you, oh, your chart doesn't look the same as mine. And a lot of times it just comes down to what exchange you're using. Every exchange has their own market makers, right? They didn't ask spread. So yeah, on yours, it is closing above. But let their own market makers, right? Did an ask spread. So yeah, on yours, it is closing above, but let's look at this, right? So this is your genuine, this is your classic cycle stage two uptrend. It's volatile. You go through stage three,

basing stage four downtrend. We start to form some little bottom patterns here in stage one, break out into the uptrend of part one. Okay. I got a little position in this, went through our stage three basing, just like I talk about. You have your squeeze shading, letting you know that a big move is happening. Most likely to the upside, green dot, break an arrow on green dots. And again, here's your parabolic advance where we just hold as long as we have the green dots right after they stop and you look at management. And yes, we have actually, uh, with, you know, at least on Binance with above the highs and the most bullish scenario for me, right? A lot of people, once we get to highs, get scared. But for me, whenever you break to all time highs, it's the most bullish scenario ever. Why? Yeah's price discovery. No resistance.

Exactly right. You can see now in a lot of the other charts, there's a lot of resistances coming up. But on Injective, man, you killed it because I can't wait to see what this thing does as soon as the market normalizes again. So well done on that one, Scott. Let's check out the daily chart even. Okay. Daily chart again. You got your bottom signals here on stage one. I've drawn the stage one part one here. Levels broke above it again on a squeeze breakout. I mean, these are basically cheat codes, Scott.

It doesn't work 100% of the time, but I'll take 80%, right? Boom. Breakout to the upside. Okay. This was your stage one. Now stage one's I'm sorry. Part one of stage two is normally a nice uptrend, but it's when you get to part two of stage two, that you really see that parabolic advance. We saw the same thing in a bunch of other coins, specifically for me, soul, because you know, I'm heavy in soul. I like soul,

but here too, we're breaking out in a parabolic advance. We're in, um, you know i'm heavy in soul i like soul but here too we're breaking out in a parabolic advance we're in um you know stage two part two and here we're having a little bit of a little bit of rejection but again this is nothing especially in this correction so injective still showing a hell of a lot of relative strength i love it so really Pat. Okay. Let's move on to, yeah, to ETH, right? You get a lot of questions on this. A lot of people are asking about ETH lately. And yes, we did finally get that breakout, right? Above this zone, which has kept us kind of dormant for a while. As I said last time, we have been making higher lows each time, higher highs, and this is actually perfect in this correction. Look what happened. So we broke out here into stage two, part one,

and then we simply had a retest to the actual line. Okay. Now these retests got, you know about them, but for anyone ever listening, whenever you break out of a zone, right, that's a really great time to get into a position. And the next time that you could possibly have a great setup is if it does pull back to the breakout level and then have a good reaction. And as you can see, we're already bouncing. Okay. So I want to see what happens in the next weeks to come because we are on the weekly charts, but this could possibly be another great setup, right? This is exactly a classic retest of that breakout, which I love to see. But again, I don't buy the retests. I buy the reaction of the retest. What do you think, Scott?

100% aligned with all of it. In fact, I don't really like buying breakouts because they end up being fake outs so often. I've learned that a hundred times. So I generally just spread bids around that retest. And if I miss, I looked at something else, you know, because you don't always get the retest, but when it's a base that large on a weekly chart, you should get the retest at some point. A hundred percent. Yeah. No, I, so I was hoping for this on Solana whenever we broke out about that level and, you know, exactly like you said, you get two, two good scenarios. Either you can get a retest of the breakout and a good reaction, and that's your second opportunity to get in, in my opinion.

Or the asset is so strong, you don't even get that retest and if you're in it from that first breakout, then that's a good situation too. That means that it's, again, showing relative strength. Very nice here. There's nothing that I'm worried about with ETH. In fact, this is a very classic setup. Let's move over to Solana, right?

Again, Solana on the weekly chart, okay? I've been playing this one. I think I bought some right here just before stage two breakout a little more. And then of course, on the stage two part two that's happening now. Yes, absolutely. And as you can see here, it broke out into the stage two part two that's happening now. Yes, absolutely. And as you can see here,

it broke out into the stage two part two. And this is what I was talking about where I was hoping we would get more of a little retrace so I could actually buy some more. And it was so strong, I couldn't even tag the breakout level. So yes, Solana is still looking strong. We're still holding green dots.

This is exactly where we wanna be with Solana. Yeah, perfect. I mean, even if we look at the daily chart here, right? So what do we have? Okay. So we've broken out into the stage two. We formed a little basing pattern right here again, and here's our little zone. Here's our range. Okay. Still holding green dots, even though we had this big pullback, okay. Keeping you in the move. So I'm still long Solana. And for me watching the price action on a micro scale, um, it looks like it's just waiting for the markets normalized before its next leg to me, honestly. So, um, yeah, everything's looking good. So those are the main, main ones that have really outperformed,

you know, you have AVAX, you have injective and you have Solana moving on now to dot. This was also another big request on dots. Um, let's see here. Uh, let's put on a few of these. Okay. So with dots, it's really interesting, right? A lot of people are waiting for this to break higher and they did see this move up here, which got them excited. But for me, Scott, Scott, this is still in stage one, which means to me that it's a bit of a laggard, right? So I'm waiting for it to break out into stage two. But the fact that it hasn't gotten there yet, I don't know. I don't really mess around with laggards, but it probably will have some good price action when we do break out. And what we have had is we've had this little squeeze shading here, which is finally broken out to the upside. But again, I can't even get past this. So let's see

what happens once the market normalizes, if we can break past that. And for those of you watching dots, that would be the time for you to enter not now. So because you already do you are above the track line, and you already have the green arrow, but you still want to make sure that you're in stage two. Yeah, you know, and this comes down to just, you know, the individual arrow, but you still want to make sure that you're in stage two. Yeah. And this comes down to just the individual trader. What's your style? For me, I'm probably- I want to wait as well. I want to break out.

Yeah, exactly. I like to put the probabilities in my favor and you do have good probabilities here. Green dots ever since it broke above the track line is good probabilities. But if you want to really stack them in your favor, then wait for the breakout of the resistance, right? And that's kind of how I trade. I normally pass up a lot of setups, but it's when I look at a setup and I have full conviction in it that I take that setup, right? So for me, this isn't here yet. If you guys have gotten in it, if you have, for those of you that have the indicators, you know, good job. But for me, the real probability starts to stack in our favor once we get above this stage one basing pattern.

Okay. Totally agree. I see you got one more up there. We got Doge. Yeah. Everyone's talking about the dog, man. Ultimate meme coin, right? Elon is going to shoot it to the moon, right?

Yeah. So looking at Doge here, we have had these levels for a while. We have broken past the stage one into your stage two part one. But again, waiting right here below part two of stage two, it's also been a bit of a laggard to me. And I've been asked about this from not only my um, my following, but also friends, uh, big friends in the space that are watching this because they think that, you know, with Elon, it's going to pump in this cycle. And I think that it will do very well. Um, as you can see relatively, you know, it's got some room to move. Uh, but again,

the fact that it's been a laggard, I think that there's just been better plays out there as of late. So if you guys are watching this again, joy levels here, this is the level to watch. We'll go into stage two at some point. Uh, but again, it's not the one that I'm watching. I'm still focusing on the big ones, you know, AVAX, uh, injective. And of course my baby Solana, um, those are the ones that I'm watching, but for those of you that are wondering, yeah, sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt. I'm wondering, we saw kind of all the Solana move. Then we saw a very similar sort of AVAX in its ecosystem move.

So I'm wondering if we do start to get breakouts on the laggards, like we'll get not only the L1 token, but everything in its ecosystem next, and we'll just kind of keep them cycling through. I'm wondering if, like DOT and everything in DOT's ecosystem will catch a bid. It's kind of happening today with Adam and Cosmos. Right. No, absolutely. Right. So, so maybe that's the play. Maybe the play is to stick with relative strength and keep your levels up, right, on the laggards. And once they break out, you know, maybe then it's time to look at the laggards and see if they catch up. That happens a lot in crypto, right? It catches us off guard. But, you know, one thing that I

like to do is if you draw your levels here for those watching and you simply just, you know, make an alert, you know, right click and make an alert on there, you can alert yourself when it breaks above those levels, right? So that's probably what I would do if I was one of the followers is every time I come on and I draw levels, even if you don't have the indicators, draw your levels and set alerts. But again, once we break into those parabolic phases like we did on Solana, you're really going to want some type of system to keep you in the move because it's not just getting into the setup. It's getting into the setup and also being able to manage the position without emotions going all over the place. And if you don't have a plan, if you don't have some type of system, emotion is going to win almost a hundred percent of the

time. Corrections. Yeah. Cause as you can see, right, even, even here on Solana, the big correction we have, it's kept green dots the entire way, right? So not saying you have to pick my system. I think my system is one of the best. It's why I use it, but you have to have a system, you know, even if that's moving averages for you, right? But you have to have a system to keep you in the move. And that's kind of why, why we use the tools that we do is for the entry. I'm going to go out on a limb and say your system is the best that I've seen. And I know like I have a vested interest in that with you as a guest and contributing to the newsletter. But like, guys, you've literally never seen me share anything like this. I've

always had my own gray and blue charts with my RSI, my divergences. But I backtested this with WIC. And since I've looked at it, forget back testing, forward testing, it has kept me in every single move really easy. And this is available to all you guys, right? So it's down in the description if you want to check it out. I don't know if you have another sale coming soon, but I mean, it's crazy. It's incredible. I use it every day and I use it to screen all of my ideas. It's just now it's become after decades. The first thing I check when I look at charts, I just click through them over and over and over again.

You know, Scott, you bring up a good point. There's a lot of people that have been DMing me lately because we had the Black Friday sale and it ended and that code is not valid no more. So I was actually thinking about starting another sale. So I guess while I'm on air, why don't we do it? Why don't we do it? I'm going to set it up probably maybe for tomorrow, the next day, and we'll have a little holiday sale that way for everyone that missed out.

I'll put it in the newsletter. Well, yeah, we'll get together after this, and I'll put it in the newsletter for sure. Perfect. And I'll go over this just one more time here. As Scott's saying, right, look at this with a squeeze breakout, and we get the stage two in the last cycle, right? You have the same thing when you look at, let's look at our main one. Let's look at Bitcoin just for a second.

We can end there. So looking at Bitcoin, we had the same thing I just showed you on Solana, right? If I zoom out, right? So I'm not trying to cherry pick here. Bottom signal in stage one, squeeze breakout on green dots above the track line. We get above our resistances, parabolic move, green dots, keep you in it the whole time. And I think the green dots and right there. Okay. So this isn't cherry picking. I mean, this, I mean, I use this on everything I do. Let's look at this last one right here. When we broke to $3,000 bottom signal, green dot start above the track line. You had your move, right? Then it went into basing. So yes, Scott, if anyone has any questions, feel free to DM me.

You can find our indicators at the, at the kind of the comment section there on our, on our, our websites and yeah, just shoot me with any questions and we will be having a sale tomorrow or the next day. You can find it on Scott's newsletter. Thanks for having me on Scott. Awesome. Yeah, dude. Thank you so much. Always a pleasure. All right, guys, you can follow him zero hedge underscore. Uh, and of course check out training alpha down below. What a day, man. I get to have WIC and use go in the same day. It's absolutely massive. I can see you guys were enjoying it based on the comments tomorrow. I got John Najarian. He'll show up this week. He had a, uh, some kind of disaster at home last week. Didn't show up because his water heater exploded or something.

He will be here tomorrow. Another absolute investing legend. Guys, you know we always have the best guests. It's what I do. Anyways, I will see all of you guys tomorrow. Thank you for tuning in. Peace.