The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin's Longest Bear Market? When Will It End?

Episode Date: August 29, 2023

Everything you wanted to know about this bear market: I am joined by two my favorite guests - Noelle Acheson and Charlie Burton! Don't miss this live! Noelle Acheson: https://twitter.com/NoelleInMadrid Charlie Burton: https://twitter.com/charliebtrader ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://bit.ly/meld-early-access  ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:50 Bear market 8:30 Bitcoin applied volatility 12:00 Uncertainty everywhere 16:30 Weakening dollar 22:00 New crypto tax rules 24:00 SEC vs NFTs 27:30 Sim swaps 29:00 Friend tech is gone 29:20 Binance leaves Russia 30:00 Bitboy saga 33:15 Bitcoin  35:00 S&P  36:50 September is the worst month 38:20 US Dollar index 42:10 Silver The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

There's a rumor going around Twitter that we are currently in the longest bear market ever for Bitcoin. This is as bad as it's ever been. It's worse than previous cycles. Oh my gosh, it can't get worse. And I'll show you why that narrative is false. But that said, I am definitely seeing echoes of 2019. If you were here, you remember just how incredibly boring it was. Bitcoin traded down from $20,000 all the way to $6,000, stayed there seemingly forever, and then broke support and dropped before eventually heading up, starting a new cycle and a new bull market. But none of that can happen until we get some volatility and get some volume and actual interest in Bitcoin. On top of that, there's a

whole lot of news today. Obviously, my bad takes last Friday on the laws from the United States being proposed by the IRS for taxes. I didn't think it was such a big deal on Friday. I think it's a much bigger deal today. The SEC coming after impact theory for their NFT project, Mint, settling for over $6 million and setting a precedent now that NFTs are probably securities and those offerings are offerings of unregistered securities. We've got a lot to cover today. I've got the amazing Noel Atchison here today to discuss all of this and then Charlie at the end to talk about the charts. Let's go, guys. what's up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started

please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. I see you guys saying good morning, Christian. Christian, good morning. Marius, good morning. Ian, Ian, Ian. You're always here, man. I still don't know how to pronounce your name. Good morning, everyone. I hope that you are having a wonderful Tuesday thus far. We have some news today for sure. There's been a lot finally going on, even though Bitcoin remains boring, just sort of trading around $26,000. The first elephant in the room before I bring Noel up really quickly is what I addressed in the title, Bitcoin's Longest Bear Market Ever. We can get to the when will it end part after this, but this is going around. It was shared by some people. I don't name names. I don't point out people who have terrible takes saying, congratulations, you guys are part of the worst bear market in history. It's never been worse. It's so bad. It's terrible. It's the

longest ever. And this is based on this chart from Glassnode. Of course, once one person tweeted it, a hundred people tweeted it and became officially the worst and longest bear market ever. But if you take 30 seconds to look at this chart, you would have to have been dropped on your head repeatedly to believe that this chart, which just shows Bitcoin's year over year price changes, to indicate what is or is not a bear market and how long one has been. Take five seconds and look at this. Last bear market, according to this, was only 204 days, guys. By what metric, I ask you, I have no idea. Because this bear market apparently started not when price went from $20,000 to $10,000 or back up to $17,000 or down to $6,000, but after Bitcoin

dropped from $6,000 to around $3,000. Apparently, that's when the bear market started, if we're comparing apples to apples here. And we were already out of it 200 days later, just by getting back to 6,000, according to that. But of course, here, this bear market, if you look at this chart, started somewhere around 50,000. And we don't get any credit for getting back up above the 25,000 level. Guys, I'm not going to spend too much time on this, but it's just further proof that just because you see a chart and somebody says something does not make it true. And I will say though, that this has long echoes, very significant echoes of 2019 when things were just really, really quiet. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Noel and we're going to talk about this further.

I don't need your take on that because obviously I don't think this is our longest or worst bear market of all time yet. Right? In fact, if you use it- I will jump in on something on that, Scott, that whenever you get that kind of a tweet or that kind of a reaction or that kind of a buzz, you always have to ask yourself, why now? Why are we hearing this now? Who is saying it? Why and why now? And there's often another narrative going on there. Yeah. And what do you think?

I think this is just part of the attempt to chill interest in crypto markets more broadly because that's certainly going to ease political pressure that we're seeing in the largest financial market in the world. Not what's happening outside, but it's definitely what's going on in the US. I think it's part of the let's all go look at something much more interesting, such as AI or something like that, diverting attention. Yeah. And listen, the metrics align with that very well. This is Google searches for crypto. Obviously, we know that that's not really happening right now.

Exactly like 2019, if anybody remembers. Nobody was talking about it going to zero anymore. They just weren't talking about it, to your point, right? It kind of disappeared from the narrative entirely. I mean, there's a lot here. Bitcoin's online transaction. We all know what happened after that, right? Exactly. And Bitcoin's transaction volume, three-year lows. Glassnode, this is the lowest volume we've had the entire year right now. No surprise. It is the summer, August. And then this is my favorite. If you want to talk about the bottom signals and exactly what you were talking about, Joe Wiesenthal, obviously the stalwart, critical of crypto to say the least,

and always has a good jab. Crypto has gone from being in a bear market to properly being in winter, not just that the coin's prices are flat or down, but like outside of maybe some hopes of a Bitcoin ETF or insider game of the week, interest, enthusiasm and buzz seem totally absent. And then he shares a similar chart about how there's no interest. Honestly, these are bottom signals. They are. And if you look at other metrics, such as the number of active addresses, we are up on the year. And surely that is always a metric of Bitcoin success, whether it's actually being used. We're not even talking about the technological advancements that the Bitcoin network has seen over the past year. We're not even talking about what's going on elsewhere in the crypto ecosystem as well.

So it comes down entirely to, again, who is saying what and why. And you can always just poke holes and, OK, but what is your definition of success? What is your definition of winter? What is your definition of the bear market? And also, why should we care? I heard the most wonderful thing on a podcast recently, Scott, which I'll just throw in there because I know you want to move on. And it was a woman who lives in Togo and she focuses on Bitcoin education in Africa. And she said, those who don't get Bitcoin don't need Bitcoin and Bitcoin doesn't need them either. That's brilliant. And I think that that speaks to the fact that also Bitcoin is just not that obvious for people in the first world. If you live in a third world country with hyperinflation,

whether you choose to adopt it or not and think it's the answer, you immediately understand why it matters. And we're just kind of living in this wonderful utopia where we all generally have access to banking services. We can PayPal and Venmo each other things and we just don't get it. And our currency, as much as people like to rail against the dollar, is very much relatively stable. It's the global reserve currency. Absolutely. And us in the privileged financial systems that we live in, we do tend to see it as an investment asset. We do hope the price goes up. That is speculation, sure. But that's not Bitcoin's only use case. Those that ask about the use case, again, are generally those that don't need it. And the use case,

I've always said Bitcoin is whatever you want it to be. You want it to be a speculative asset? It is that. You want it to be payment mechanism? It is that. You want it to be store value? Is it ideal on any of those? No. But the fact that it can serve as any of those, depending on needs and circumstances, gives it a resilience that other assets don't have. I often get irritated also, I think you alluded to this earlier, the number of commentators that say that the United States is going to kill crypto. The SEC is out to kill crypto. It can't kill crypto.

It can do damage for sure. And the clamp on the banking system is hurting crypto businesses around the world, but it can't kill crypto. Yeah, I agree. So I want to talk about a chart that you actually sent me right before because we want to highlight

that this is seemingly important. This is the Bitcoin Volmix Implied Volatility Index. Of course, this appears it's a relatively short timeframe chart, but talk about what we're seeing here and why it matters. Well, I got so excited when I looked at this chart this morning

because there's movement. I mean, I know so many traders who are saying these days, God, I would take any movement in any direction right now. We do not enjoy this Bitcoin is a stable coin narrative. That seems to be increasingly true. On a bigger picture, it's still low. Implied volatility is definitely off the highs from earlier this month when we had those sharp moves. It is definitely off its traditional levels. So it's still low, but look, it's moving in the upward direction now, which is key for the bigger picture, Scott. We're not going to get

liquidity coming back into this market until we have an uptick in volatility. And again, this is implied volatility, which comes from options pricing. And there's a whole lot of other stuff going on in options that can somewhat distort this, but hey, you know, it's something, we'll take it. We're not going to get liquidity without the volatility because without the volatility, we don't have the market makers

and we don't have the high frequency traders that give the market its liquidity. Why don't we have them? Because with low volatility, it's just really not worth their while. It's, you know, the market its liquidity. Why don't we have them? Because with low volatilities, it's just really not worth their while. It's, you know, the market makers need to hedge and crypto hedging is more expensive than traditional asset hedging.

And the high frequency traders, again, you need the volatility. That's how they make their money. Until we get those players back in the market, we're not going to see institutions comfortable enough to dip their toe in simply because large orders could have both slippage and exit risk. And without the institutions, the market isn't going to really start to move.

It's always new entrants to any market that trigger a rally, that trigger a bull run. The new entrants are not going to be retail just yet. They're not quite the size. It's going to be the macro institutions that see Bitcoin for the diversification potential that it has, as well as the insurance asset that it has the potential to be. We understand the problem and we know that we have the chicken and egg situation, which is that we need the volatility to get the volume and to get some actual interest in it. What brings back the volatility on a grander level and therefore then what really is going to trigger liquidity? Is it one of these white swans, as people call them? Is it an ETF,

something like that? Or is this simply just all of a sudden some whale hits a very large buy button or sell button and we get volatility again and then the interest comes back? Yes, to all of the above. I mean, volatility is very difficult to pin down. It doesn't have just one route. I think we need any or a combination of the above, or who knows what's going to happen. I think it's September. I think we're going to have traders coming back into the market. We're going to have people coming back from holiday. We're going to have portfolio reallocations.

We've got the end of the third quarter coming up as well. Let's not forget that. And the rumors or expectations, I should say, not rumors, of the potential Bitcoin spot ETF and the very likely Ethereum futures ETF, they're going to start to bring some speculative positions back in. And all it takes, especially with such low liquidity, is some uptick in activity, not a lot, some. And that'll start the uptick in volatility, which will bring in some more, which will take up volatility some more. And then it's a self-fulfilling spiral in the right direction. I actually found this chart this morning, which I found fascinating. U.S. financial liquidity regimes and Bitcoin.

It doesn't take a genius if you start looking around 2020 to see just how much liquidity, and I'm not talking about Bitcoin liquidity, I'm talking about global liquidity, how much liquidity is in the market in general, contributes not only to bullish and bearish prices for Bitcoin, but just how much it tracks liquidity. So it's fun. We obviously, listen, we know for a fact, as this says, Bitcoin kisses growing correlation with S&P 500 goodbye. We talked about this a month ago. The correlation technically right now is gone. That's because other markets are actually doing something, right? And we're doing nothing. So the correlation is gone, but that correlation to liquidity will never leave. When there's liquidity, we have a bull market. When there's no liquidity, we have a bear market. Is it really

just that simple? Because it looks like it when you stare at a chart like this. Well, there's never anything really simple in financial markets, but stepping back on the narrative basis, yes, it is that simple. We have so much uncertainty in the market now, Scott. You commented on this before as well. I've never seen this level of uncertainty. And it's not just uncertainty with the different asset classes that are following different development paths.

It's the political uncertainty. There's an election coming up in the United States next year. That's a pretty big deal. It's the geopolitical uncertainty as well, with the shifting roles of the BRICS group, with China potentially not achieving its growth targets this year. There's just a lot of stuff going on. Let's not forget there's a war still going on in Europe,

which will end one day. And just think of the volatility that will be unleashed in the market when it does end, which it will one day, eventually. It the volatility it will be unleashed in the market when it does end which it will one day eventually uh can come soon enough it's um difficult times to plot anything relative to anything else because all of us analysts have you know been scratching our heads collectively thinking that does not make sense you know you study for years and years and years and years you'd think things would make sense no not, not in markets. That's one of the fascinating things about this particular field. But one thing we do know is, as you said, Scott, liquidity matters. How you measure that global monetary liquidity, that is an entirely new art unto itself. And there are signs that it is ticking up. The expected liquidity measures

from China look like they're not going to come through as expected just yet. But perhaps when things get worse, they will. And we've always known that for liquidity to come rushing back into the market, things do need to be pretty bad out there. Yeah. And we also have a situation that not that many people are talking about, I think, but where we have the Fed and monetary policy talking about tightening, where you have the Treasury and fiscal policy really still kind of putting liquidity in the system. So maybe it's just sort of washes out and we're getting neither, which is why it's kind of so boring and nothing is happening. Yes. And again, there's an election next year. Have you ever heard of fiscal liquidity drying

up in an election year? Don't think so. I mean, that genie is definitely not going back into the bottle. Going back to correlations for a second. Yes, they're really low now, which so many people are latching on to the narratives that either Bitcoin doesn't matter anymore. Or yes, this is the time to diversify your portfolios. Forgetting that correlation is always a backward looking metric and it can change fast. It doesn't look like it changes fast on the charts because correlations are 30, 60, 90,

180 days, whatever timeframe you choose. They're smoothed. They're very smoothed, but times of stress, correlations go to one, as you know. So it's not something you can count on. It's a nice narrative device, but it's not more than that. So one single black swan event and all of a sudden, obviously, we're going to see everything move together or white swan, I guess, in the other direction. But I agree. Sort of the old escalator up and elevator down, right? When everything goes, it really goes and it goes together. I can't imagine seeing a world where we had a credit event or something like that and Bitcoin continues to just be under sideways on no volume while everything falls off a cliff. I just can't see that happening. I do think that if we get a big credit event or we just simply get the stock market realizing that its valuations are unrealistic.

I mean, it's run to where it was before Powell started the tightening cycle, Scott. That makes no sense whatsoever. Anyways, so I expect there to be a stock market correction soon. And I do think Bitcoin could suffer when that happens because a lot of macro investors who've been focusing on technology investments and long duration assets, they also have Bitcoin. And when you've got to sell to meet marching calls or even just to get cash on the table, you'll sell whatever. Let's remember that Bitcoin's markets are open longer than stock markets are. So yes, Bitcoin could get hit. But we've seen time and time again, Scott,

that that is when support comes in. That's when buyers come in. I've personally been very encouraged by Bitcoin's lack of movement over the past week or so because the dollar has been climbing. And when the dollar is climbing, normally Bitcoin is dropping. So this is again showing that there is some subtle support in the market even now, even though we're not seeing it directly in the price. Yeah, I agree with you 100%. And speaking of the dollar, and this is the last thing I know we need to talk about

before I let you go, but we have had this magnificent climb, I guess, magnificent for now. We're in the seventh week of green. We'll see how it closes. And right when I think a lot of people thought the dollar was going to break down. I think you and I share the idea, especially

as you've pointed out with the election year, all these things that we will with time see a weakening dollar once again. Yes, I'm convinced of that, largely because we are seeing, even now, we're seeing reduced demand for dollars. Sure, in times of crisis, there could be a rush into the safe asset, but more and more are questioning just how safe the dollar is relative to other assets. It is still the cleanest shirt in the laundry. But it does have a debt problem. It is getting debt downgrades. It has political sclerosis, it has a lot of issues that are going to encourage investors to look elsewhere. And on terms of

trade, we are seeing bilateral agreements emerge, and this is just getting warmed up. Yeah, I totally agree. Any final thoughts before I let you go? Anything we might have missed? Everyone says that it's been a very dull summer. It actually hasn't. The prices haven't been doing very much, but there's been so much going on on the geopolitical front that points to a very interesting phase for crypto development on the global stage, not so much on the US stage. And as a European, I do find it quite heartbreaking to see the world's largest financial market that is known for its support for innovation just squander this opportunity.

But crypto ecosystem around the world is evolving rapidly. Awareness is growing and the use cases are becoming more apparent, especially given the currency turmoil that we have seen. And that is just getting started. Everything you say aligns with my general feeling, which is that this has just been yet another summer, yet another four year cycle, the year before the halving. And probably one year from now, we'll be having a very, very, very different conversation as we ramp up to the election. Indeed. Thank you so much, Noelle. Always a pleasure. Thank you, Scott. Have a good day. Incredible insight there. I always love to hear her perspective. So grounded, pragmatic, and intelligent. Sometimes we have guests who

are unable to really articulate their points. Obviously not the case here. I want to run through a bunch more news that I didn't want to bore her with as we continue on here. And then, of course, we can have Charlie Burton at the end to look at the charts. First, if we're talking about this cycle, I've showed you guys the chart here. Let's look at it many times before, right? This is a halving cycle. Bottom, halving, bull market, bottom, halving, bull market, bottom halving, bull market, bottom halving. We're not there yet. Obviously, that's next May. But when you're looking at this, guys, I do want to remind you, in the next thread, I'm going to show you echoes this. And the echo is exactly what we were just talking about. You get a bottom, then usually very many months later, you return to it and put in a higher low and head up. If you look at the bottom here, we had it all the way up to 14,000, right? We had that rally from 3,000 to 14,000 in 2019, and then a drop all the way back.

Yes, it was largely COVID, but yet again, putting in a higher low during that sort of bottoming to having cycle and then raging out into the having and beyond. So that would imply that we will once again make a higher low than this at some point out here, right? And then heading up. Now, there's a lot of people echoing a similar sentiment. This is a great thread from Immortal Crypto. He's been studying these rallies. Listen, we don't have to dig into the entire thing. He posts charts showing exactly where we are. That was at 14,000, 13,000 high I talked about in 2019. Let's imagine that 31,000 was a similar high, which is generally what I do believe. I don't think we're going above 31,000 anytime soon. It could, but at this point after...

Listen, I thought we were continuing up likely, but when we broke 28,600 support, my opinion changed. How it goes, right? But if you take a look, listen, we when we broke 28,600 support, my opinion changed. How it goes, right? But if you take a look, listen, we can dig into the whole thing, basically showing how similar they actually look. But if you want to actually compare to the last cycle, if this cycle is similar to the previous one, we would still need 384 days to create a higher macro high and break 31K for good. That is a long time. That's a year. I've been saying we don't get the real bull market until a year. But if you look at it here, that was that 14K top, went all the way down here and then finally around. So maybe we dick around and come up. I told you guys literally last fall that my expectation was a really, really, really boring

year and a half or two years. And I still am generally thinking that's what's going to happen. I could be completely wrong. We could get an ETF approval. There's a lot of things that could change that. But for now, I don't see any reason for us to be trading way up. I know I will have Chris on tomorrow. He'll tell us 40, 50K. I listen. It could be right. I thought the mid 30s and 40s were there, but I do think it's meaningful that we dropped. It's nice that we're still holding that 25,200 something ish area, right? I saw a terrible take here. No, this isn't it. Okay, we'll keep going and I'll find it later. But continuing on, obviously, guys, on Friday, I was like, hey, I read this.

It doesn't seem that bad. Crypto community reacts to Biden's proposed crypto tax reporting rules. It's really problematic. You guys have probably heard this conversation already a million times. But I was pretty excited when I first read it that miners, node operators were not going to be considered brokers. That was good news because the expectation was that they might be and that would be wildly problematic. The problem is that the MetaMasks of the world and the other wallet providers and Uniswap and anything decentralized now will theoretically, if this passes in 2025, be treated as brokers and that shit is literally impossible, right? How could MetaMask be expected to not only report every single transaction to the IRS, but to KYC every individual sending or receiving a transaction? They would have to know everything

about your identity to comply with this rule and to report that so that you can pay your taxes. It's literally impossible. Antonio, the founder of DYDX said this, crypto builders should just give up serving US customers for now and try to reenter in five to 10 years. This guy's in the US. It's not really worth the hassle, compromises. Most of the market is overseas anyways. Innovate there, find PMF, then come back with more leverage.

PMF is product market fit. Let me first be clear on my goals for crypto and where I believe we're at right now. In the grand scheme of things, barely anyone uses or cares about crypto today. I personally don't care about any outcome except growing crypto 100x long-term. Given this, the only thing that matters for all of us is crypto finding 10x stronger product market fit. You don't need to have a perfect distribution to iterate and find strong product

market fit. There's plenty of big... Okay. You get the gist. You get the gist. Even the people building in the United States, this is the guy behind DYDX, they leave the United States, come back when crypto matters again. A, I think that's a bear market signal. Personally, same kind of thing that we've seen before, but is worth noting. I don't believe, by the way, that if you leave for five to 10 years, the United States necessarily is going to be allowing you to come back or that that's going to work. But pretty serious words from the founder of one of the most popular DeFi platforms that's based in the United States. And we can't talk about all the problems that we're having here without talking about what's happening with the SEC now, because this is huge news. Impact Theory, you guys have seen Tom

on my channel before. He's the CEO and founder. They had an NFT release last year called Founders Keys for Impact Theory and raised about $30 million. And the SEC now has settled with them for $6 million. It should be noted, Impact Theory paid the $6 million, but did not admit any guilt. So there's no real precedent set here. This was low-hanging fruit for the SEC. But what does matter, obviously, is that now we have some sort of idea of how the SEC views NFTs and these projects that were released, and it ain't good. They obviously believe that these are securities offerings, unregistered securities offerings, and are probably going to continue going after everyone who did it. Now, the nuance here, obviously, is in the way it was marketed.

What the SEC said was that it was an investment contract and effectively that the company Impact Theory had given people the impression that if they buy these, they would go up in value. You would expect to make money. Therefore, it is a security. That probably applies to every NFT project ever. So I think this gives us a hint as to what is going to happen. Now, Tom, Tom Bilyeu said he posted a long thread basically saying, hey, we're going to continue on. He saw it as a win. Listen, we settled. Who cares?

We paid. This guy's a billionaire. But settled said, hey, we paid our six million dollars. We can go on. But it's notable. They had to burn all these NFTs, take them back, offer refunds. I mean, there was a lot of penalties that they had to do here, but he still believes that they're going to be able to move ahead and use NFTs. But more interestingly, as usual, the minute we get one of these irrational actions from the SEC,

we immediately get dissent from Commissioner Hester Peirce, and in this case, also Commissioner Mark Uyeda. I don't actually know how to pronounce his name, basically immediately said, this is crap. We shouldn't be doing this. We should be laying out clear rules. But this was my favorite part because it's something I say all the time. This is what Hester said. We do not routinely bring enforcement actions against people that sell watches, paintings, or collectibles, along with vague promises to build the brand and thus increase the resale value of those tangible items. If you sell a Rolex for more money, has Rolex participated in the release of an unregistered security sale because the brand has given you the idea that Rolexes hold their value? Are diamonds in fact forever to beers, right? So it's going to be very interesting to see how this pans out,

but it's very clear where the SEC stands. We got to get rid of Gary Gensler, guys. We have to get rid of Gary Gensler. Get Hester Peirce or someone else more reasonable in there, or follow the Warren Davidson plan to restructure the SEC and not have one commissioner in charge, just have a panel of six equal commissioners. But man, this sucks. FTX customers hit by withdrawal phishing emails after SimSwap attack. Guys, I've been SimSwapped.

I've talked about SimSwaps. First of all, we've seen a bunch of personalities on Twitter. I showed you there's been like hundreds of SimSwaps this year. That was news the other day. They SimSwap your Sim. They go into your Twitter, they take your Twitter account, then they start promoting scams. We've seen it over and over again. Do not use SMS authentication. That's it. Use Google Authenticator or something else on a separate device. Never attach your phone number to authentication. If they SIM swap you, they get everything. In this case, somebody involved in the FTX proceedings was SIM swapped and the hacker got all of their data and is now sending phishing emails to FTX customers. We saw this with Voyager as well, telling them that withdrawals are available. You can go in and withdraw your money and then you hit the button and you end up sending them a whole bunch of your money. Do not fall for any email that is not super official that you haven't seen

confirmation of elsewhere. A bunch of Voyager people ended up getting hacked and sent money. Imagine being one of these people who lost everything and then losing more because this company couldn't protect their SIM. In very surprising and shocking news predicted by nobody except for me and most people, Frentech revenues plummet 90% of social app hype cools. Guys, it was stupid. It was dumb. It was fully redacted. It lasted for a week. A bunch of influencers made like a hundred grand each. And now everybody realizes it's a piece of shit app that has absolutely no utility. and you're not actually getting value by buying a share or now a key in someone. Let's move on from Frentech because that is dumb. And of course, Binance considering a full exit

from Russia, they were mostly out but had peer-to-peer transactions. You might've seen the Wall Street Journal that Binance had some major issues here with sanctioned people, wallets, entities utilizing the peer-to-peer transactions on Binance. So now Binance considering a full wholesale move out of Russia. Very sad for the Russian people who will have no access to anything and might only be able to trade crypto at a few places using rubles. That said, we saw news in April that was very quietly passed over that the Central Bank of Russia is mining Bitcoin for cross-border transactions. So Bitcoin very much alive in Russia.

Now, guys, I'm going to address this one very quickly. You guys probably saw. Listen, people did whole shows on this yesterday. I love my fellow YouTubers, but come on, man. Not worth the time, but it is worth at least noting because I want to say something different about it. Yesterday, BJ Investment Holdings, a parent company of Hit Network, took decisive legal action in removing Ben Armstrong from the company that is BitBoy and specifically the BitBoy crypto brand. Somehow BitBoy did not actually own BitBoy crypto entirely

and two partners. This difficult decision is a culmination of a prolonged effort to help Ben during his relapse into substance abuse, as well as reconcile the emotional, physical, and financial damage he has done to the employees of Hit Network and the BitBoy Crypto community. BitSquad deserves better, blah, blah, blah. So BitBoy apparently did not own all of BitBoy Crypto. They took him out, removed him completely. I tried to message him. He has no access to the Twitter account. I did talk to him very briefly on the BenCoin account. but listen, this is what he, and this is what he said. This has been TJ shed and Justin Williams have attempted a coup at my company, just confirming what is going around. It's true. There's been a mutiny until they can clone me. I have nothing to worry about.

To be honest, I agree. Like without him, I think this channel dies. Um, I'm not saying they did the wrong thing in the situation where they had to, but that's life. But what I want to say is that where's the humanity, man? Listen, I understand people have their views on him. He was a larger than life personality, very loud. I totally understand if it's a business decision to get rid of him. But if you've ever heard his story in the past, you're talking about a guy who over a decade ago had a serious addiction to drugs, to heroin, I believe. He was in jail. He overdosed. He almost died. He got in a fight with four police officers, apparently went to jail, like I said. I mean, the guy obviously had struggles and got through that. Wife, three kids,

beautiful family. A relapse is not something to make fun of. It's extremely sad. It's not a joking matter, in my opinion. And so just from my side, I hope he gets the help he needs. I feel deeply for his family. I've seen how addiction can ruin a family, certainly when there's a relapse. And I'm just honestly, man, this hit close to home. We're not close friends, but I obviously know him. But I'm just really sad for the guy and I'm really sad for his family. I think this is extremely unfortunate. And I just really think it's just really sad and shows you that even 10, 12, 14 years later, people can relapse and fall right back into it. So that's all I got to say.

Moving on. And I'm going to bring on Charlie momentarily because I want to laugh at this one with him. Charlie, I'm going to bring you on. You haven't seen this, but this is from Matrixport saying Bitcoin is Matrixport. They've turned bullish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is going to go up. Global liquidity is coming back. All things are good.

And then he said to set your stop loss at $25,800. That's what? $100 below the price? Oh, I can't hear you, buddy. I don't know what's going on. Can I maybe... There we go. It's on.

It's on. You mute yourself. But this article, I literally almost fell over because I started reading it and it said, you know, all the conditions are there for a Bitcoin bull run. And then it said, set your stop loss at $25,800. Wow. Well, someone's going to be earning a lot of money out of that if there was a lot of people sat there with a stop at $28,000.

Sorry, $25,800. Sorry, yeah. How absolutely nuts is that? Like, yeah, I just, it, it boggles my mind. The reporting. I mean, imagine price is now 26,000 and you're talking about, and it was just at 25, 12. So 25, I mean, 25,200, you would expect that we're going to go visit those lows potentially. And that is meaningless. Right. So yeah, you get, you get to get stopped out, uh, before this massive event over the next few years that they're talking about going up. But, uh, what are you looking at at the charts right now? I mean, I'm, I'm encouraged that

we're holding 25,000 for now. Uh, but I'm not convinced that's going to last. Yeah. I mean, you, uh, we mentioned this last week. Um, yeah'm still looking for that little bit more down to that 24,000. Last week when I was on, I was talking about the divergence that we've got on the weekly chart there. Just from a technical perspective, I'd just like to see it come back down and test that weekly 50 that you're showing probably there on your chart. Yeah, that's 23,983. And by the time it would hit, yeah, exactly 24,000. Yeah, it's a nice level historically as well, that 25,000, 24,000 area. So yeah, that's what I would like to see. But as we often say, what we want to see and what we get

to entirely different things sometimes in the markets, but I would like to see that. But we're in the right ballpark anyway, as we said last week. When you look maybe back in two years' time, looking back at where we are today, then hopefully we're saying, oh God, yes, we were certainly in the right ballpark. Yeah. I mean, you weren't watching before. I mean, my really gut just says we're just going to be really boring and we're going to, maybe we go down to the lower 20s and maybe we go back to 30, but we'll probably be doing this for quite a long time. What do you make of last week's weekly candle? Because we obviously had the big drop. We're now below the 200.

This is only the second time really in history we've traded more than two weeks below the 200 MA here. You were talking about the 50. But pretty indecisive little doji or spinning top there. Yeah, a little inside bar. I'm not reading too much into that maybe if it would have been a little like harami type candle something like that then maybe i'd have been a bit more interesting but interested but for me it's not saying too much yes indecision

but again we keep on going through these periods where bitcoin has a bit of a run and then just goes flat doesn't it for weeks on end on end. So yeah, fun enough when your producer got in touch with me earlier on and he said, can we talk about Bitcoin? I said, really? No, we can't. I mean, we can, but I don't know that we could offer anything brand new. Is there anything we can talk about, Charlie? Is there anything that's changed for you since last week that you can show us? Please, for God's sakes. Yeah, let me share my screen then. Let's go for just a couple of bits. I had to do Bitcoin because I had to laugh at that article. Absolutely. And there's always different people watching the show.

Guys, it's going to be great. We're going to new all-time highs, but not if we drop below $25,800. No way. No, no. So at the moment, yeah, I'm still a little bit bearish in the nearish term, but I'm not looking for any massive, huge moves, as I've just said there about the 24,000 or so area, see if it can get down there. So let's have a look here. This is something slightly different, just a little warning for people based on the stock markets here. For the month of September, we talked about this last week, that historically the month of September is an underperforming month. And here's some actual visuals for our viewers here today.

So you can see the month of September there on average. And this is actually across 15 global markets, not just the US markets. But on average, you can see that underperformance that historically takes place there. So I thought I'd bring that up as we were talking last week about coming into the month of September for the stock markets. Having said that, over the last week, they've been a bit up and down. And we'll see how this S&P plays itself out. But I'm going to stay with those seasonals for the stock markets and still looking for a little bit more weakness over the coming weeks,

generally speaking. That's how I'm looking at them. But it sort of sits well because the last six years, the dollar has rallied through the month of September. And we tend to normally see if the stock markets are coming down, then the dollar is normally benefiting and going up. So history suggests that we should at least see some kind of softer performance overall by the time we get to the end of September for the stock markets and outperformance for the dollar during the month of September. And just to reiterate, it doesn't mean to say we just go up and up and up. Are you back to being long Euro then?

No, no. No, because I'm talking about the dollar being short. Excuse me, long dollar versus, I meant short Euro. Guys, sometimes the words don't work. Yeah, I think we talked about it twice, two weeks or a few weeks ago. I was long Eurodollar. And then I think I said on your show, I'd got trading stopped and then switched to short. So yeah, no, I'm still short. So Eurodollar there. So still looking for a bit more downside there and a bit more overall dollar strength. If we look at the Dixie here, then, and if I just take it out to a monthly chart,

I've got, we've got this, a lot of support that it's come down into when it came down to 100. I still think at some point, it's, I've got some other analysis suggesting that some point further down the line, we should roll back over. But at the moment, the near term momentum, as we can see, is the upside on the monthly chart there. I am looking for a little bit more out of the dollar there, especially coming into this period that we're coming into here. But by the time we get to the back end of the year, we'll have to see about that. Yeah. I mean, I literally just got rid of the old head and shoulders while you were talking, but we still do have higher, lower highs here. So it's coming into a real, on the weekly, it's coming into a really critical zone here,

actually. I think we'll get a lot of clarity on the dollar here because you got the 50 weekly which is curling down right above you have kind of the what would be a higher high at 104.699 but 104.252 now and for fib fib lovers you're right at 38.2 there that kind of entire move uh all the way up from when we were back at 89 in 2021 at the beginning well it's quite interesting because I was just looking at the fibs on the euro dollar, just literally just this morning with my traders. If we look at the euro from, if I put this onto a monthly chart, from the lows here coming up. So the lows were made for the euro in September of last year. If I put the fibs on, then funnily enough, just the 38% retracement still needs to come down to 106. So 106 in relative terms, if we put this back to the daily chart, in relative terms, 106 down here is going to correspondingly, going back to the dollar index could see the dollar index

up another couple of hundred pips from where we currently are but i do agree that you know we've got that weekly 50 just curling down on top of price as we speak so it'll be interesting to see you know whether it can get through it but i'm still i'm don't mind the dollar index doing pull back some here it's just i'm five or six weeks up, but I'm still leaning into the upside just for that little bit more. I've got some probability stuff that suggests that from a technical side of things as well, that suggests that the dollar may hold up

just that little bit longer, but I'm not a bull in the much bigger picture. I must point that out. Yeah, that's exactly what I just talked about with Noel before you came on. It was basically maybe some dollar strength here, but then we go into election year, eventually liquidity comes back and the dollar inevitably drops. I mean, there's only one way long term for the dollar to go because eventually they're just going to print a whole lot of them. Yeah, that's true. And there's a lot of issues

further down the line, which we've talked about before with the dollar, as far as where diversification from globally out of the dollar is going to start happening more so as the years go by. But that's not happening right now. It's little bits are happening, as we're already seeing with some of the BRICS economies as well, talking about that, but and pricing of more pricing of oil outside of the dollar but um all those things are more structural for you know the bigger picture uh but right now yeah i'd love to see a little bit more upside in the in the dollar absolutely any final thoughts anything we might have missed oh silver let's have a quick look oh yeah silver was raging there for a little while i haven't looked at it today but uh well on bouncing nicely. Well, on the weekly chart, I'll just zoom out on my – actually, I'll go to a monthly chart. Just to put this into perspective, first of all,

we've got a long-term trend line from those highs back in 2011. I remember getting berated by a load of traders in 2011 because silver had come off a bit, and I said, I think the top's in. And they were like, no, silver's going to go to the moon. And you think said I think the top's in and they were like no silver's gonna go to the moon and you think I think you know when you get to 2017 and you say something about the crypto market you think I'm sure I've been here before but but uh silver at that time had a lot of bullishness back in 2011 anyway I've got a trend line going across the highs here for silver and then if I

take us now down to the weekly chart, again, I've got a nice little rising trend line below it. So what's actually happening is we're winding our way up in between these two lines here at the moment. And I quite like silver for the bigger picture. It just it's building and I need to go back out to the weekly chart, sorry, monthly chart there. I think there's it's building pressure the way I'm seeing it for an upside push at some point now that could still take several months as we said I think last week that the uh the seasonals aren't necessarily favorable for silver right now um but they will be as we get into the latter part of the year and so it could be

something in a couple of months or so's time, but I am looking out for silver and the potential for a breakout here. And before we know it, we could be then back up into the upper 28s and then we'll take it from there. I'm not huge on these, but I can see right on your chart right there that you had a golden cross of the 50 and 200 MA. Both are now acting as support. Yeah, well, it's already done it,

but yeah, absolutely. And so, yeah, I mean, I use them as sort of confirmations. That's about how I, how I look at them when I see them,

but, but yeah, overall, I think structurally there's some nice patterns there and that does link in to the, to gold. Cause if I go to gold on a monthly chart as well, I love this old fashioned sort of cup and handle pattern.

So, you know, it's still not there yet. But if it can break through, then, you know, there's a there's a projection up to what, two thousand seven hundred or so for gold. But it's got a bit of work to do yet. But they're interesting charts nevertheless. Yeah. And I think, you know, for a lot of people here who are trading crypto, obviously, if you believe silver and gold are going to go up, that could potentially be a very good sign for Bitcoin. Yeah. Well, risk on assets as well. So, yeah, absolutely. But I also think they're a good element of diversification for a lot of crypto traders as well. Yeah. Oh, if you really believe in Bitcoin as digital gold, then why not own some actual gold as well? Yeah.

Just in case. You know, it's got a pretty decent proven history. Yeah. All right, Charlie, man. Thank you so much. Always appreciate your insight. Got news coming out. Nine minutes.

News is coming out. What do we got? We have got consumer sentiment and we've got those Jolt's Jobs openings coming up in nine minutes. All right. Well, go talk to your group. Don't want to keep you. Thank you, man. Take care. See you soon. And guys, there's one other story I think that I... By the way, you might have seen me go off the screen there for a minute, which was kind of hilarious. My mouse now, if you slightly swipe left or right, apparently, I had to reboot my entire computer. It sends me like

I'm hitting the back button on my browser. So I just completely exited the stream. Thank goodness when I came back, it was still there. Yeah, this is big news that just broke. DCG reaches crucial in principle deal with Genesis creditors. Recoveries could be up to 90%. Now, first of all, what did I tell you guys about these bankruptcy proceedings and deals and chapter 11? Don't believe anything until you see the money in the bank, right? We've learned this over and over and over again, something my dad told me, I told you guys a long time ago. No deal is done until the money is in the bank. But apparently, DCG has made an in-principle deal with Genesis creditors, but Genesis is their own company, to basically bail out Genesis. Recoveries could be up to 90%,

which would be absolutely epic. I know that Gemini Earn is one of those, so this would be very good news for them. But I will say that DCG, not exactly in the clear and not themselves necessarily out of trouble. And as a Voyager creditor, I was really happy when we got an FTX deal. And I was kind of happy when we got a Binance deal. And then both of those fell apart and we had no deal. So I wouldn't get too excited yet, but at least we've got some generally good news. On a more personal note, I'm planning to be here tomorrow, but I also know that I will likely be in the middle of a very significant hurricane.

I went over and prepped my parents' whole house yesterday because they're too old to be moving around their furniture. I have to prep my entire house today, doing all the shopping and all the things and all the stuff and the moving furniture and the tying things down. That's how I'll be spending the most of the rest of my day. But I would say highly, highly, highly, highly likely that I will not have internet access tomorrow. Storm is supposed to hit literally tomorrow morning. And for right now, we're pretty much in the spaghetti model and the cone of certain uncertainty.

But I'm trying to be here tomorrow. If I have internet, I will be here. And if I am here, expect the stream to die right in the middle. But unfortunately, I have one of those situations where my phone doesn't even work in my house without the internet. So if it goes, if the internet goes, I can't even use my phone, period. I will be blacked out. Kids though, out of school today, early in preparation for tomorrow. and we'll see what the next few days have. But I'd be pretty surprised if we do not lose both power and internet in the coming days.

So we will see what happens. I'm sure it'll be fine. We do this every year. I'm more concerned about missing work than I am about safety uh, we will see what happens guys. Uh, another great show really enjoyed it. I know guys just like it is a newsletter, YouTube spaces show up every day and talk about this. When I've showed you like when this market, there's no interest, there's no volume, there's no sentiment. It doesn't change anything for me. I still love talking about it every day. I still want to be here. I still want to find things to talk about. And there still are hidden gems of information that really matter here.

Where it keeps showing up no matter what, you know, it is what it is. That's what we got. I will see you guys hopefully tomorrow, if not, hopefully Thursday, if not, hopefully Friday. See you guys soon. Bye.