The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin's March To $150K With Mark Yusko

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

In anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving and potential ETF approval, leading crypto experts are sharing their predictions. Mark Yusko, a personal favorite of mine, will offer his insights. Meanwhile, Dan "The Chart Guy" will give an overview of the market and discuss some of his trading strategies with us! Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Dan The Chart Guy: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://bit.ly/meld-early-access  ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 4:30 The fair value of Bitcoin 11:00 Tom Lee: Bitcoin will achieve $150K 15:00 Halving will change the fair value of Bitcoin 16:30 BlackRock ETF will be approved 20:00 Bitcoin skyrocketed after the last halving event 23:40 Shib is screwed 29:20 What’s going on with USD 32:30 Stocks 36:20 Bitcoin looks weak 41:30 Altcoins 44:00 What’s going with the miners 48:30 Wrap up The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Another day, another Bitcoin target. Yesterday, we spoke with Mike Alfred, who said he believed that Bitcoin would hit 40K, I think he said before the end of the year or certainly before the halving next year. But now we're going to talk about what happens after the halving, after a very likely ETF approval. How high can Bitcoin go? Well, I think it can go much higher than the predictions we're seeing. We have Tom Lee and today's guest, Mark Yusko, both saying that $150,000 Bitcoin is very much in the cards. We're going to discuss that a lot more today. And then I'm going to get Dan from Chart Guys opinion on the back half, as always, because it is Thursday. Let's talk about 150k Bitcoin, guys. Let's go. Everybody, I'm Scott Melker, also known as the wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and drop the rocks people's elbow

right on the like button i actually totally missed the thing when the wwf became the wwe and i found out it was because of recently so i don't know how i missed this maybe it's because of my age that it was because of the worldwide wildlife foundation is that true they didn't like the name and they sued the wwf and had to change her name to WWE. Really relevant right now, guys, but that's got me thinking about the people's elbow for whatever reason. But that's not what you guys want to talk about. We want to talk about how Bitcoin could possibly get to $150,000 and I've got the best person to talk about it because he's one of the people who said it. We got Mark Yusko today. What's up, man? How are you? Doing great. Doing great. And I love the, I love, I did not know the backstory on the WWE versus WWF and crazy. Learn something every day. Yeah. Apparently you can't have two WWFs competing for

that very coveted three letters. You know, it's what's amazing to me is that, you know, people can, can own certain things, but not other things. It's like, actually, when I was naming my company, you know, all the good names are taken, you know, all the great words, all the big cats, the birds of prey. And the guy finally said, you know, just pick something that's a physical place because then anyone can use it. That's why you see lots of things named after streets or physical places. So I lived on Morgan Creek and hence called it Morgan Creek. And then, and the little funny thing is James Taylor grew up down the street from where we lived when his dad was dean of the medical school at UNC,

and the song Copper Line is about Morgan Creek. So if you look around our office out there, we've got this copper line running all through it. And on our logo, it's got a little copper line. And it's funny. He was coming to Carolina to, uh, they gave him a bridge. They gave him the James Taylor bridge and he was going to come to accept the, uh, the naming. We said, oh, wouldn't it be cool if you stopped by? Cause

it was one of our board meetings and, you know, saying a few bars of copper line. So we reached out and his manager said, mr taylor would would be happy to do a mini concert like don't don't want a mini concert want like three lines and he says yes and his his fee is is five hundred thousand dollars cheap cheap uh no i know so yeah we'll just take uh going to carolina in his mind then instead of going to carolina exactly going to crazy land in his listen to his song going to car in person. Going to Crazy Land in his mind. Listen to his song, Going to Carolina in My Mind.

It's free. We talk about competition. I didn't actually know that, but it's kind of the same for a lot of classical music and Christmas songs are basically public domain. So people use them all the time

without having to pay any royalties, sort of a similar thing. Anyways, we have two catalysts right here that could catapult Bitcoin up 410%. Pretty big number. Predicts hedge fund veteran Mark Yusko. That's you. Obviously, we're talking about the halving the ETF, right?

Because there's nothing else to talk about here. Yeah. And it's so funny, right? Technically, I did say 150K, which is 410%, but that's not my base case. That was my blow-off case. But Tom Lee came out yesterday and doubled down on his base case being 150K. But look, the math is simple to me. And I'm a math guy, so I like math. And I've been have the hashtag just math, right? So the fair value of a network is very determinable.

We've talked about this before. I can jot out a Metcalfe's law model and I can come up with a fair value for any network, whether that's a computer network or telecommunications network or the Bitcoin network. And that fair value number has been very consistent over the years. It's got a little bit of wiggle around crises, but it's been pretty consistent. And today that number hangs out around 55K. I've talked to Tim Peterson, who I think has the best Metcalfe's law model to N squared crypto. And in a time like now where the price, which remember price is a liar, has nothing to do with the value of anything. It's just the price that two people exchange a small amount. And the price today is hovering around that 29,000 level.

That's materially less than 55. Well, then another thing happens. We're in crypto summer. What's crypto summer? It's just the period right before the halving. And then we go to crypto fall right after the halving. And what do crypto summer? It's just the period right before the halving. And then we go to crypto fall right after the halving. And what do those mean? Well, four-year cycle. Why it's four-year cycle? Because it's baked into the code for the halving. And human beings go from greed

to fear over these market cycles. Again, in stocks, it used to run on about a seven-year cycle with the business cycle. Then the Fed kind of messed that up with QE. And now it's more like 11, 12 year cycle. But bottom line is cycles are human emotions, fear and greed. And when the price is below fair value, people like me accumulate. I'm an investor. I mean, people like me. I'm not saying that's smart or dumb.

I like buying things below fair value. I think that's a smart way to do things generally. And so investors will accumulate. Well, as we approach the halving, something happens. That fair value number is essentially going to double. Well, why is that? How can that be? Well, the halving is this ingenious construct that cuts the block rewards that are paid to the miners to secure the network.

Well, if you think about it, the miners' costs are fixed. Electricity, power, I mean, power, electricity, and their machines. If the price didn't change and your block rewards get cut in half, you're basically out of business. So it inherently moves the price higher. And that's what we have seen every halving. And every halving between the four-year cycle has added a zero. Went from 10 to 100, 100 to 1,000, 1,000 to 10,000 the last cycle. I think fair value jumps to 100,000 right post halving. But that's fair value.

What we know about markets is they don't stay on fair value. They get way below when people are fearful, and they get way above when people are greedy. So as the investors get their fill of buying all the way up to that $100,000 level, then the traders come in and traders don't give a crap, a technical term, about fair value. They just want movement. And they're going to buy and they're going to sell and they're going to trade. But then what happens is the price starts to go parabolic, which it does because greed starts to enter in. Then the speculators come. And then the gamblers come. Well, what's a gambler? Gambler doesn't know anything about anything they're buying. They hear from somebody or read on some Twitter post,

hey, this is a good stock. Or they watch Davey Dave Portnoy pull tiles out of a Scrabble bag. Oh, I'm going to buy that. Are you fucking kidding me? Oh, sorry. Are you serious? You're going to buy something with real money because a guy pulled letters out of a scrabble bag. It worked. And the problem is it works for a few minutes, right? It works for a few seconds because a bunch of people do it. The bigger your audience, the more manipulation you can do in the markets. And so GameStop and AMC and all that stuff with the Redditors or the Predators or whatever

you want to call them. Yeah, you can do that. And ultimately, Bitcoin, I think, will go to another speculative blow off. And normally that blow off has been about two times fair value. So in 18, we got to 20 on a fair value of 10. In 21, we got to 60 on a fair value of 30. And this time, I don't think we do double. Why? Well, because... The ETF should smash volatility to some degree, right? Definitely. We'll talk about the ETF. And that's the wild card. It should smash volatility, but it could

blow all my numbers and all Tom's numbers right out of the water. We're going to watch Tom in a minute, but yeah, go ahead. But the reason I don't think it does twice this time is there's not as much leverage. Most of the leverage has been dissipated because the SEC sued all the big leverage providers and made it really difficult for people to get 100X. Now, you should never buy an 80 vol asset with 100X leverage. That's just dumb. And I shouldn't throw my brother under the bus, but I think I've told you this before. He called me up and said, hey, they stole my Bitcoin. What are you talking about? Well, I was a BitMEX. I'm like, stop. No one stole your Bitcoin. You levered up an 80 vol asset. You got a margin call. You couldn't pay it. And they seized the collateral.

That is not theft. Now, technically, people say, well, they lured people in to steal their Bitcoin. Well, that's certainly possible. That was their business model. But it's technically not theft. You signed the deal. But levering an 80 vol asset a little bit, fine. Like if it's below fair value, maybe fine. But levering it when it gets to fair value or above fair value.

I think I'm ready to have your brother on the show. We need to get him on here. We can do it. Well, I want to hear his side of the story. We've thrown him in the bus so many times. No, just kidding. We definitely don't want to hear his side of the story. We don't want him.

We don't want him. Take too long. Okay, perfect. Hey, let's see what Tom Lee had to say about the exact same topic really quickly because we do have the video here. I always like hearing your price targets because you are so fearless um where are you on bitcoin by the by the end of next year let's say uh well if the spot bitcoin gets approved yeah i think the demand will be greater than the daily supply of bitcoin and so the clearing price uh this is done by sean farrell who's our crypto digital strategist is is over 150 000 it could even be like 180 000 but that's

that's only if the spot only if the etf gets approved yeah and the u.s a spot u.s because a spot bitcoin etf is approved outside right okay but if it's not approved, then are we just lingering around $29,000? There's still upside counts because of the halvening next year. So you'll have a drop in supply again. So the clearing price has to increase, but it won't be six figures. It sounds like that aligns exactly

with your thinking, right? Almost like you read your article. Yeah. Tom and I are brothers from other mothers. I mean, we definitely think alike. I do think it's funny, though. And I love Melissa, and I am not criticizing her. But it's amazing to watch her be just as skeptical at 29K as she was with me when at 8K, she's like, what do you do?

I'm like, buy it. She's like, what do you mean? Well, you'd always say that. Yeah, I would. Buy it today. Buy it tomorrow. Buy it next week. Buy it next month. Because it doesn't matter what price you pay. What matters is owning a piece of the greatest and most powerful computing platform the world has ever seen. That's what Bitcoin is. It is the most powerful computing network the world has ever seen. And it provides a function. It provides a better accounting system for the base layer of money than anything we've ever seen in history. And not to own that, I just think is imprudent. And what you pay for your share is kind of irrelevant because you're going to want to own this thing in perpetuity. But I think it's really funny to watch her be just as skeptical

at 29 as, you know, four or five, wherever, four and a half years ago when we were on together. I mean, every single other metric

about Bitcoin is showing that the fair value is much higher, right? I see even someone in the comments saying, listen, we're at 75% now of coin, long-term coins being held

and not moved, right? We see volumes historically low, coins being moved off exchanges. I think a lot of that is a lack of trust in exchanges. But I mean, it's clear that people are holding this asset long-term, not moving it with the expectation that we are going to see another massive cycle up. And I think the ETF, which we should talk about, only contributes to that. I think the ETF, which we should talk about, only contributes to that. I think that would be happening, by the way, without the ETF news, because I think that's just a general trend for Bitcoin. The number of 55K is absent the ETF, right? The fair value of 55K, which is what we'll march toward by the halving, right? We'll march toward

fair value. Then fair value will change on the halving event and that pushes it to 100. So 100 has nothing to do with the ETF. Now, what the ETF has the potential to do, and I totally agree with Tom, it has the potential to really mess up the supply demand dynamic. Because you're talking about a $550 billion asset, right? And so an ETF, when the ETF is approved, and I'll give it 50-50 chance on October 17th. So on October 16th, they will deny or push the Bitwise application the same way they push the BlackRock application on Monday.

Right? And we're investors in both, right? We own a little piece of Amun and we own a little piece of Bitwise and I wish both of them would get approved because the first one that gets approved gets everything. It's, you know, to the, you know, the victor takes the spoils. So I wish one of them would get approved, but it's not going to happen. BlackRock will get approved and they're going to be first. So October 17th, they're third

in line. Could they get approved on it? Yeah, 50-50. More likely, they push them 90 days into 2024, and it gets approved either in January, or they might push it another 90 days and get it right around the halving. Optics would be so crazy if they approved the day after rejecting Bitwise. So I agree with you that it probably likely gets pushed for that very reason. Yeah, yeah. But look, those people don't care about how things look in optics.

They're like, we are manipulating this process. We aren't going to do it the way it should be, which is whoever put in first should get it. We've decided the winner. We're the kingmaker, even though that's not their job, actually. But let's talk about this. So you've got a $550 billion asset. When the BlackRock ETF is approved, that basically opens up $30 trillion-ish. And this is from Eric Balcunis who did the analysis. And I agree with him.

30 trillion of assets under advisors and RIAs that right now are prohibited from owning the asset. Like I have a family harmony account at UBS. My brother-in-law's there and I have some money with him. And I say, can I buy GBTC? No. UBS says no. Can I buy a mining company that does Bitcoin? No.

So they don't let you do anything. Now, it's not as bad as I understood Merrill actually wouldn't take you as a new account. I heard the same, actually. You made your money in crypto. Yep. It's like, are you kidding me? Anyway, so they'll take drug dealers and all kinds of other people, but they won't take Bitcoin. But pharmaceutical reps.

Anyway, so $30 trillion. Let's say you get 0.1%. Okay. That's not really aggressive. 0.1%. That's $30 billion. Well, Mark, 30 billion on 550 billion, that's not going to move the needle. Wait a minute. Remember, roughly 80 odd percent doesn't trade every day. Yeah. About 20% of the market cap. So let's call it 100 billion for round numbers. 100 billion trades every day. Okay, 30 on 100, that'll move the needle.

But let's think about this. Is 0.1 reasonable? Like if you're an RIA and you've got clients clamoring to put, are you going to put 0.1 or are you going to put 1? 1%. Are you going to do 1%? Yep. You have to. Otherwise, you're showing no conviction to your client in the thing that you're investing. Exactly. You're going to do 1%. And $300 billion on $100 billion of free float will rock the price. That will rock the price. And once the price starts to go parabolic, there's a self-perpetuating mechanism

that the greed kicks in. I mean, people always ask me, what's the catalyst for higher prices? Why would it go higher now? And I say, I don't know. The catalyst for higher prices is higher prices. It's higher prices. And it's always been the case.

The catalyst for lower prices is low prices. Or low prices is higher prices it's higher prices and it's always been the case the cat you know cats for lower prices low prices or low prices lower prices so it it is the nature of the beast and so look i could i could make a case that we blow right through fair value we blow right through that 150 and and things get really, really crazy because we saw that. We don't have to hypothesize, Scott. We know exactly what happens when you put $20 billion of demand into the Bitcoin ecosystem. Four years ago, we saw that. We went from 10 to 60 in about six months. Why? Because GBTC. Everyone forgets. We've seen this movie before. It wasn't as pure. An ETF is more pure. The money goes right in. With GBTC, a qualified purchaser

had to buy the shares in the private market, wait 12 months, and then feed the ducks into the public market. But that asset went to $20 billion from zero. And it didn't happen over six months, but that parabolic part did. And that was $20 billion. Now the market cap was smaller. So it was about roughly the same percentage. And so look, it's funny when you talk about this topic, people are like, hope is not an investment strategy. You're hoping because it the truck up at this price. Because it wasn't. You know, fair value is $30,000, $33,000. The market cap, you know, the price had gotten to $70K. That was stupid. Well, why was that stupid? It was because of gambling. There was too much leverage in the system. And then everybody's like, well, you know,

it became a speculative asset. Like, no, it didn't. It was the same asset. It always was uncorrelated stocks, uncorrelated bonds. No, no, no, no. The correlation went to one. Yes, that's what happens in liquidations. When you get a stock market crash and people get a margin call because their Netflix stock went down 70 percent and their, you know, Amazon stock went down 55 percent. Let that sink in for a second. One of the largest companies in the world went down 55 percent. And you get a margin call. You don't sell Amazon.

You sell Bitcoin or gold or cash or bonds. And so all the things that are liquid went down faster. And so the correlations do go to one momentarily. Now correlations actually went negative for the first time a couple of weeks ago. But on average, Bitcoin is 0.15 correlated to stocks, 0.0 correlated to bonds. And it's going to stay that way. It's the perfect diversifying asset. Not only should you have the 1% just because you should, you should probably have 2% or 3% or 4% because it's the best diversifying asset I've ever seen. And I've seen them all. I mean, I've been alive long enough to see when we used to have only bonds in pension funds.

35 years, Mark's been alive. Yeah, 35, exactly. Yeah, 35 years. Exactly. You are a kind man. I love you. You're welcome. I have to ask you about one other story

that you may not have seen before I let you go. Did you see this? Shibarium sloppy launch. See, it's 1.8 million stuck in pending state. Did you see this? No. They tried to take SHIB, the meme coin, and actually give

it utility after all these years. And then they completely screwed it up and lost tons of people's money. Are you surprised? I am. I am shocked. This is my shocked face. This is my shocked face. We'll do it in a thumbnail next time. Yeah. You know how I feel about the dog shit coins. I don't get it. And I've debated some youngsters on this that memes have value. Nope, they don't. They don't. And what it is, again, it's back to that greed and fear. It's just pure greed. And buying something because someone else will pay you more for it

is not an investment strategy. And you say, well, but Bitcoin has no utility. No, Bitcoin is, I believe, digital gold. It is a scarce asset that has better liquidity and lighter weight. You know, the Hal Finney quote, you know, God rest his soul. It's amazing, right? I can envision a day when banks might use Bitcoin the same way they use gold today and issue deposits on top of it because it has, you know, great lighter weight weight and less friction. That's what it is. It's a technological evolution of an asset that has existed for 5,000 years. And it's extraordinary technology. It's not a thing. It's not a speculative punt.

It's a technology. And triple entry accounting is, I don't even know how to describe how important it is for history. Because for 800 years, we've dealt in a financial system that was reliant on trust. And trust is very expensive. We don't trust each other inherently. We doubt each other. And trust requires other people and other people charge a fee. But here's the thing. We had Scott Stornetta on, we have a little podcast for digital, for Morgan Creek Digital called Digital Currents. And Scott Stornetta, for people who don't know, is if you read the white paper on the last page, there are eight footnotes. Three of them are to Scott's work. Scott and his partner are the co-fathers of

blockchain technology. They coined the term. We could chain blocks of information together into this thing called blockchain. They invented it, right? And he's a venture partner of ours and i i said you know when when was the day that you had the epiphany and he described that day where he's like blocks chaining oh okay but but the more important story was you know he was around during this this whole evolution. And I said, well, what was the big kind of epiphany? And he said, well, I realized that, you know, Scott, if you and I have a transaction, we need a third person to validate the transaction, right? To establish trust. But he said, but the problem is that person's corruptible, right? I could pay them a little something, something to fudge my number. So I lend you a hundred and have

them say, oh no, Mark puts on his ledger 200 and I'll split the difference with you. So the Medici's get half. So we need someone to watch the third person, but then the fourth person's corruptible. So we need someone to watch the third person. We need someone to watch the fourth person. So basically we need the whole world in order to verify a transaction. Does that sound like something you've heard of before? It's like proof of work. So he has this epiphany

that you must have this total validation system in tech rather than human beings, which are corruptible. All of it, this entire corrupt system is going to migrate, which is precisely why the incumbents don't like it. It's precisely why Chokepoint 2.0 exists. It's precisely why Gensler exists. It's all of these things. But it's the Gandhi quote. First, they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. And we're in the, then they fight you phase, but then you win. This technology has already won. That's the cool part.

If you're in this community, if you own Bitcoin, you've already won. Anyway, I digress. I agree 100%. But I think we can all agree that just because people like memes doesn't mean we should let a bunch of children actually handle other people's money and try to build things. No. Some children, Wunderkins, yes. Like Nate in Ted Lasso. Yeah, maybe. But the average kid. Best him. Yeah. Totally agree. Mark, thank you so much, man. Always a pleasure. I love the perspective. I'll see you at 150K. All right. See you, man. Be good. I'm thinking under 180. I like the 180. Let's do 180. Cool. Deal. Thanks, Mark.

Tom Lee. Tom Lee. Tom Lee. Better bet. Talk to you soon. Thanks for our Tom Lee. Tom Lee. Tom Lee. All right. Yeah, I think I'm actually thinking the more I think about 150 is low. Okay. I think we get another just big ass cycle and everything goes up because humans are going to human, but that's not worth talking about right now because it's way into the future. What we need to talk about right now is the dollar seems to be at a critical level. Stocks seem to be showing a hell of a lot of weakness. Bitcoin is showing some weakness. And when Bitcoin is showing some weakness, altcoins are getting disproportionately slaughtered. And because I've tried to unpack that all myself and have had minimal success,

we've got every single Thursday. Dan from the chart guys here to join us and tell us what he's looking at. Was that an accurate summary of what's happening in the market right now? Yeah, nice and concise. Very good. Yeah. So listen, I know that you're, you know, I know generally the things that you're looking at. I definitely want to talk about the macro and then drill into why we're seeing such altcoin weakness. Because I know you have some thoughts on that.

But maybe we start with the dollar and stocks and go from there. Sure. So let me pull up my screen. The dollar, I keep highlighting how important the dollar is, just because we're seeing so much of an inverse correlation, just in the sense that, you know, with so many things, the dollar has been bouncing for four and a half weeks. We've had the metals pulling back for that long of a time. We've had crypto consolidating for about five weeks, and now we've got stocks pulling back three weeks. So it's definitely something to pay attention to. And as you mentioned, it's at a fairly key level where we topped out back in June at $103.57, $103.54, and we're at that level right now. And so I've got these trend lines up on the

12-hour timeframe, just as a bit of a visual guide for me, where I'm viewing this and saying, all right, if we're going to reject from this resistance, then this trend, this uptrend line needs to break bearish. And that's the first indication that we would be heading into weekly consolidation. And really, if we want to zoom out big picture and talk about where are we heading into 2024, I've been using the four-month timeframes a lot more in my analysis ever since the bear market started a couple of years ago. And if the dollar can confirm a weekly uptrend as the result of next consolidation, and we've seen these bounces before. These bounces did not result in uptrends.

But if this time- Or higher highs. Right. As you look at those, those are all lower highs. Yeah. So that's the question for me is, all right, number one, I want to know when a temporary top is being set. So I'm watching for that now. Then once we get the weekly consolidation, we're going to watch the retracement size. And we're either going to confirm an uptrend for the first time since the top, or it's

going to be here we go again with continuation of the downside. And if you're long crypto, metals, stocks, you want this scenario and it will be a red flag for you if we confirm the weekly uptrend, because the weekly uptrend confirming would be a longer term. This is the four month timeframe, long term. It would be a higher low forming. And after the big time bull move up, the big pullback, that's not what you want to see happen if you're looking long in crypto. So what the dollar does into the end of the year here, into September and beyond, is going to be pretty instrumental for setting the stage into what we're going to be looking for starting 2024. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. So

now that we're at this point waiting to see what's going to confirm for the weekly on the DXY, what does that mean for stocks? I mean, I kind of told you a few weeks ago, I said, I'm really hesitant on stocks right here. Not necessarily long-term, but it felt to me like they were topping. I sort of de-risked. I sold a lot of things that I had bought sort of at the bottom. And I'm still not seeing much sign of strength here. In fact, I mean, I'm looking right now, the SPX seems to be still kind of falling off the cliff today and losing. I can see it's losing the 50 MA on the daily, kind of a lot of little signals here. Yeah, we reached euphoria. I mean, it's a Taylor's oldest time where towards the end of July, it's like everybody on my timeline is switching to bullish. And, you know, I use social media to a certain degree with a little puzzle piece of my analysis. And back to start the summer, there was still a ton of bears. And then as the summer wore on, you know, three months of just up, that shifted perspective a lot. And then we got to July and it's like, oh, it's all bullish

now. And that makes me cautious. But the current consolidation that we're seeing, big picture right now is where the bulls want to start playing some defense. And I'm looking at, I use the weekly EMA 12 support here, this red line, and that holding that is what kicked off a little bull flag into that summer run. And if we were to lose that, the big question for me is, again, long-term timeframes, four-month chart, are we going to see all-time highs or are we going to have a fairly boring 2024 where we fail all-time highs and then just form a tightening range? And I'm open to both of these possibilities. The bulls obviously want to see a cup and handle like pattern.

This is the monthly chart where we have the all-time high, our big rally, and all right, we're failing resistance, but if we can form a bull flag on the monthly, then it's possible that we head to those all-time highs. And so the key thing here is in line with the dollar being inverse, where we just talked about the dollar. Can it confirm a weekly uptrend? The question for the market bears is, can they confirm a weekly downtrend? Whenever we find this bottom in the short term, does it result in that lower high and lower low, which would be the first time that has happened since we bottomed at the end of last year? That's the big question for me. And the dollar is going to play hand in hand with that because of the inverse relationship. Yeah, I was just trying to search back that's the big question for me. And the dollar is going to play hand in hand with that because

of the inverse relationship. Yeah, I was just trying to search back because I know to see my actual thoughts because I have ADHD and forget things. This was basically a month ago, July 21st. I said, NASDAQ looks ready for meaningful correction. Does not mean bear market. It was anything hyperbolic, but weekly is overbought with bearish divergence, likely to print at resistance with a shooting star candle, right? So, and you kind of see that was the idea there. And then I'm clicking on it and yeah, that was the top, right? Yeah.

And so you can see that euphoria right there. I mean, you're looking at a weekly chart that went to 76 RSI overbought. That to me just means correction due. That's starting to make me, as I look at it more, it's starting to make me think the DXY is going to confirm that uptrend and we might see a lot more downtime. I I look at it more, it's starting to make me think the DXY is going to confirm that uptrend and we might see a lot more downtime. I'm watching for it. I mean, the NASDAQ just went plus 35% in five months. So we've got to be realist here. That's a huge amount. And again, to see monthly consolidation as a result of that isn't in itself a red flag.

It's just we got to go every single day, every single week, we're going to get new information that's going to help us shift our probabilities as to whether this is, again, a monthly bull flag for a new all-time high or the start of a bigger picture sideways range that we're going to trade within most of 2024, which is again, why what the dollar sets up on the weekly chart into the start of 2024 is going to significantly shape what my expectations for 2024 are. Yes. Now we need to drill down to Bitcoin. Mark Yusko, you were watching, he kind of said it's uncorrelated. He talked about the long-term lack of correlation and the shorter term correlation.

But I think we all admit if things go really bad, it goes bad, right? And right now, we're kind of seeing stocks go bad. And maybe it's coincidental, maybe it's a random walk, but Bitcoin is suffering. And we had sort of the same wick on SPX the other day as we did on Bitcoin yesterday or two days ago, which was a little surprising to me. So I guess the broader question is, will Bitcoin just follow? Or can Bitcoin actually go up if all these things go down? Or is it just going to be a correlated asset? I mean, things will change, obviously, over time. But I think it's going to...

The power of human emotion always astounds me. And that's so much of what trading is, is understanding human emotion based on price. And that's the one thing missing. I was just listening to your conversation and it was from a crypto-centric perspective. Whereas for me, so much is dependent on the sentiments of market participants based on the market as a whole. And so if the NASDAQ is a monthly cup and handle, and we confirm that into all time highs in 2024, absolutely. Bitcoin 150,000, sure. But if we see a tightening range and the bears take back over and, you know, we trade sideways for

2024, I do think that any doubt in the market is going to bleed over into crypto. And you just look back at, you know, yeah, Bitcoin got up to 69,000, but that was in an environment where people were literally throwing money against the wall, where I've never seen a macro environment that bullish in my 12, 13 years. And COVID and the money printing and the free liquidity on top of, yeah. And people at home with no jobs playing, you market like the lottery for fun. It was a different time. Yeah. It was the perfect storm for massive speculation. And so, again, really for me, long-term targets, it's fine if you're an investor, you're not going to act. You're just sitting and holding. You got to pass the time speculating on assets, prices later. It's fun. Okay. I get it. But I also know that the 100,000 target that so

many people had for last bull run got a lot of people in trouble. My friends included. Myself included. Yeah. Right. I mean, it didn't necessarily get me in trouble, but I really thought at 69, when it broke that 65, I was like, how does this not just fly to 100? And yeah, I didn't, you know, I didn't sell off there. Yeah. And that's, that's what, you know, if people have the number in their mind, and I see this in my friend, who's not a trader, I see it all the time where he's got the number in his mind. And if it doesn't hit that number, he doesn't act. And it's

old forever. Yeah, that can be a dangerous thing. And that's obviously what we see time and time again with the 80% pullback after the euphoria. Yeah. And so, I mean, Bitcoin obviously looks weak there right now, but I will say, I do think Bitcoin looks weak, but looking at... Let me take a look. I mean, just the really quick view for me, 28,600 on the weekly is a really key level. I mean, that's the low of 2021 between the 65 and 69 highs, right? And it's just sitting there right now. So I can't get too worried yet unless we start seeing that breaking, for me at least, on significantly higher timeframes.

And then kind of have the 200 MA lurking right below. Then if you even go to the daily, we're sitting at the 100 MA and this is kind of the same line, 28 fours. I really want to see what starts to happen in this area is really the gist because look how, I mean, I saw you look at the 12 hour, 12 hours oversold, six hour, way oversold, four hour, tragically oversold. We're looking at 17 RSI on the four hour right now. I mean, we're getting to like extreme, even with this little price movement, we're getting to extremely, extremely sort of fearful here, in my mind. Yeah. As soon as we're done here, I'm going to scout a bounce in some of these crypto miners just because their four hour RSI is at some

historical bounce levels. And so that definitely has me interested looking into short term bounce. But again, going back to the weekly scenario on the dollar and how that would look like on Bitcoin. So let's say that the dollar tops out in the near term into weekly consolidation and then sets up the trend change. That would look like Bitcoin finding some support here in the short term, failing the recent high of 31.8 or breaking it with zero follow through and then acting as a rising wedge type of pattern if the dollar is able to confirm the weekly uptrend. So again, it's just going to have such a massive impact on what I expect in the short term. But as far as the short, short term, I'm definitely watching for a four hour oversold bounce to begin. And one thing that I'm looking

for is, you know, maybe we sweep the lows real quick and then get that four hour bounce underway into tomorrow. That's how we would get a divergence too, right? I mean, I love overbought, oversold, but really I'm looking for that sort of higher low on RSI with the lower low on price and that sweep could do it exactly what you're talking about. But then, so now I think we're all going to look for bounces, but I don't know that that necessarily means reversal. But then now we have to drill down to altcoins, right? Because Bitcoin goes down 1%, it seems altcoins now go down 10%. Yeah. And really, it's just long-term trends where even when Bitcoin's up at the high and up at, it's bounced 100% and it's up at four-month highs or whatever. I mean,

so many of these coins were still just setting weekly lower highs and long term downtrends. Even like ADA and Adam and all these names, it's just, okay, nice bounce. I mean, we went on Adam from seven to 10, 50% bounce, great. But it's just a downtrend. And those big bounces are part of the longer term downtrends. And so, so many of these coins do still have a lot of work to do on the longer term. And, you know, even ADA, big bounce, 22 cents up to 38. That's a usually happens is Bitcoin gains a lot of confidence, then that confidence seeps out into the altcoins. And so obviously, if we don't have that confidence in Bitcoin, then the altcoins get even more smashed as they have a lot less equity. And what we saw a couple of days ago in the altcoins, I mean, it was a three minute, just smashed drop, two and a half minutes of just straight down five to 10% on a bunch of

these coins. And just knowing that that can happen in two and a half minutes, that in itself is, you know, bearish in terms of scaring a lot of people away from altcoins. And Bitcoin itself had only gone down from like 29.5 to 29. Or, you know, and was right back at 29.2 or went to, you know to 29.6 for a second to just... I think it bounced above 29. I mean, it's very hard for me right now. I had Ben Cowan on. Maybe everyone I have on is turning me bearish.

It's just very... And I still hold all the altcoin positions I was holding, but very hard for me to get interested in them right now. Yes. So far down the risk curve and we're still waiting on so many things above it on the risk curve to confirm that in them right now. Yes. Like so far down the risk curve and we're still waiting on so many things above it on the risk curve to confirm that that can hurt it. Yeah. For a lot of people, I mean, Bitcoin's current trading is risky enough. And so, you know, to get into those

altcoins, it definitely, and again, this, you know, everything that keeps happening in this space, FTX and SEC, it just keeps pushing more and more people away from altcoins. And that definitely impacts the amount of liquidity and the amount of bid support. Yeah. So listen, you said you were going to go take a look at some miners. Can we just look at the miners for fun? I've got you here. You're going to do it anyways. I think it would be a good intellectual exercise not to put you on the spot.

Yeah, no, that's fine. But I'd love to watch it happen in real time. Wow, that real riot is really getting smashed. Yeah, I just look at riot, you know, we're giving back the majority of the move, but we're entering this, you know, back before this breakout took place, there was a lot of price action around here and we're back now in it, you know, the $12 range, the upper $12 range was the upper part of this channel. And so here we are backtesting this support zone. And so that has me interested along with the four-hour RSI. I look down and say, okay, that's down at 17. And I just scroll back. I like historical RSI levels, something being

oversold. If we're weak, that's not enough to go long. But if I look back and say, okay, well, every time the RSI has dipped below 20 in the last four years, it doesn't stay there for long. That definitely finds a local bottom sooner rather than later. So that is what starts to get me interested. And so right now, what do I need to see on Riot? If we get a new high of the day here, that's the first indication that a little shift is taking place. And it's just one time frame at a time. We zoom out to the hourly. And if we get the new high of the day, we remind ourselves, okay, good start. But if we don't break 1350, it's just an hourly lower high. So we just got to see that one time frame at a time. And what I would like to see in an ideal world is for Bitcoin to break, as I mentioned, break 28.3, which is testing right now. See relative strength in Riot

and MARA where let's see if Bitcoin flushes 28.3 here and those names don't significantly break their low of the day. That would be a slight sign of relative strength. And if Bitcoin breaks 28.3 straight into a bit of a V-shaped move, that would be the ideal setup to look long for a temporary bounce. And my style of trading, I definitely would be trading counter trend on these names. So what I would look to do is, let's say we bounce 1260 to 1310. I take partial profit, knowing that we're in an hourly downtrend, just in case the hourly downtrend continues. And then I can stick my stop under the low of the day at that point, have very little risk or be risk free and just try and let it play out a bit longer term.

Because my goal would be a riot four hour oversold bounce to get up to mid 13s, which decent, you know, five to 10% bounce. Yeah, I love the importance of time frame there, people. He's not saying to invest in these long term at this. He's looking for an exit when he's entering, which is very important. Because I think since I love divergence so much, you play that bounce. But then I generally, we do often see one more dip lower to give that divergence. And then you can start to maybe look at a higher target or something if that's your strategy. But that first bounce is a great trade, but it's not a long term investment in my experience. I did that with Tesla yesterday. Tesla, I played this quick oversold bounce first thing yesterday morning, but I reminded myself, all right, we're in an hourly downtrend. And so it was a great quick,

oh, 3% bounce in the first 30 minutes, but walking the stop loss up, taking partial profit along the way. I stopped out when we failed the high of the day and then rolled over here. There's the last of my position stopping out. And that's just protecting against, well, if the trend continues, we may be oversold, but if the trend continues, I have to protect myself. That just looks like the McDonald's golden arches. Yeah. Yeah. That would be a head. Well, it depends on where the head is, but potentially a head and shoulders. We're going to henceforth the Tesla McDonald's golden arch pattern. Yeah. And Tesla's getting real beat up as well. Daily oversold approaching. So yeah, a lot of stocks I mentioned in a video yesterday where

I'm starting to look for short-term bounces in stocks may just last a couple of days, but that's where I'm at at this point with the size of the pullback we've seen the last couple of weeks. I'm just getting through so much weakness right now. Not regretting selling all that meta at the moment in the mid three teens. I'll take that all day. It feels good to actually be right sometimes. All right, man. Anything else you want to add before I let you go?

Just establish those game plans. You know, as soon as we saw Bitcoin, that falling wedge that I had on there first thing, it did break bull. But as soon as we lacked follow through with the trend change, just prepare game plans for both directions, regardless of what you want to happen and ensure that you're not just scaling into something with no game plan. You've got to have a stop loss level where you say, all right, if this hits, I'm wrong. I don't want to be in the position. And again, just always risk management. I love knowing worst case scenario. This is the worst case scenario. This is what my account will be at. This is how much I will lose. And when you know that in advance, it's a lot more psychologically forgiving when it happens. The only thing you can control in trading is how much you're willing to lose. It's always been a mantra for me. So the one thing I've already accepted it as a loss when

I take the trade mentally. I don't trade as much anymore, but I used to have to do that. Basically just writing a check and sending it off and it's gone. And so anything that happens in my favor better than that is a good outcome. That's my approach as well. All right, man. Thank you so much. See you next week. Have a great day.

Everybody go follow Dan. Obviously, uh, the, the, uh, Twitter name is down in the description and check out his channel. One of the few, you know,

I don't have that much time, but I, I pretty much religiously, uh, continue to watch his videos since he's going to be here and to know what we're going to likely talk about. And he's been pretty dead right since we've had him on the show. So that's also encouraging. Not that we expect people's crystal balls to work out that well. Guy's got Twitter spaces, of course, in about 25 minutes. And I will be back tomorrow,

I think, with David Lynn to do our new weekly Friday show. All right, guys, it's been a pleasure peace out bye