The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin's Turning Point: Is The Bottom Finally Here

Episode Date: July 2, 2024

Despite the upcoming massive distribution of 140,000 Bitcoins to Mt. Gox creditors, some analysts believe that the Bitcoin price has already hit the bottom and won't fall further. James Butterfill, the Head of Research at CoinShares joins me today to discuss this and more! James Butterfill: https://twitter.com/jbutterfill My friends from The Arch Public, Andrew Parish, and Tillman Holloway, are joining in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.  Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/  Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus  Tillman Holloway: https://twitter.com/texasol61  ►►JOIN US HERE TO DISCUSS THIS WEEKS CRYPTO NEWS WITH NO BOTS 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/UlpNCeV ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Quite a few different indicators, technical, fundamental sentiment, all pointing to the fact that we may have just bounced off the bottom of the range for Bitcoin. Of course, when everybody said we were going to 50, 40 or 30, now their tune is changing. I still lean towards a few more boring months and then we see what happens. But when we want actual data to back it up, we go to James Butterfield from CoinShares, who is here today to share his insights and never-ending knowledge on inflows and outflows. I don't know if James wants to be the inflow-outflow guy, but he's our inflow-outflow guy. It's what works. Guys, we also got Arch Public, of course, on the back half. You don't want to miss this show. It's going to be great.

Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and gently caress that like button down below also hit the little bell alerts i've had a lot of people in the comments i believe this is tinfoil hat conspiracy i don't think it's true saying they're not getting alerts for my shows that i'm shadow banned it's all over i'm dead crypto no longer exists on youtube that's what i've heard i don't know if it's true but uh, hit the alert button and let me know if for some reason they're not coming up so that I can have a futile attempted conversation with the AI chat bot at YouTube about why that might be happening. Guys, we've got inflows, we've got outflows, we've got speculations of the bottom. James, is it okay to be called the inflow-outflow guy. Yeah, I think so. But I'm concerned, you know, I don't want this to be a sort of death by fund flows

kind of discussion, if you know what I mean. No, we're not going to do that. We're not going to do that. Maybe you're right. The bottom's in. Yeah, better. Well, we've seen a lot of people selling out short positions, short ETFs.

That's quite encouraging. The relative strength index, if you like technicals, that's quite encouraging. The relative strength index, if you like technicals, that's just below 30 recently. We have seen a bit of a price pop. Definitely, we've been on the road over the last month seeing clients across Europe, sentiment, particularly in places like Switzerland and Zurich, for instance, very positive towards cryptocurrencies and see recent price weaknesses and opportunity. And then we've got the fund flows. So three weeks of outflows, that's $1.2 billion. That's pretty chunky. Still sitting at around $15 billion worth of net inflows a year to date. And that's reversed of late, right? We had a of a seven day, we had a 19 day run of inflows.

And I think a seven day run of outflows that was significant. And now we're back to trickling inflows, specifically with Bitcoin. ETH has been on a pretty negative run. Yeah, $130 million of inflows so far this week. So it's just one trading day so far that I can look at. But Ethereum is kind of depressing. I actually think all the fundamentals stack up quite well for Ethereum and eventually I will be right on this one. But yeah, investors have been selling out of Ethereum over the last couple of weeks, quite the largest outflows since August 23, I think it was, or maybe even 2022. So not quite a sort of positive thing, despite, you know. We were supposed to see a launch today, which is not happening, right?

Gary Gensler once again has poo-pooed on our parade. July 2nd was the odds on date for these approvals, but we have progress. It's going to happen in the coming weeks. It just didn't happen today. Do you think that, like, we had the ETH is getting approved trade, so everything went up. Now you're seeing outflows because they're scared that you'll get that sell the news dip, the GBTC outflow equivalent with ETH from Grayscale, something like that. They're trying to get ahead of it. Yeah, it does feel like a bit like buy the rumor,

sell the news, just like Bitcoin. You can kind of estimate how much potential the outflows might be from the Grayscale Ethereum product. Roughly 20% of Bitcoin. About 10 billion. Market volumes. So, yeah. And so you could say, you know, what, 2 billion of that we see outflows over the coming months. It's slightly less liquid. So yeah, there is that selling pressure.

It is also launching at an unfortunate time when everyone's gone on holiday. So they're not going to be making any sort of serious investment decisions come September now. So things just, and this includes for Bitcoin, you know, we might just kind of stagnate a little bit until everyone comes back from holiday.

That's what we're supposed to do every summer. That's what I said in March when we were at the top. I said, get ready for six months of downward chopping boredom. And I was the enemy of the people. I said, your meme coins are going to die. You're in a casino and just get ready for the boredom. But yeah, here we are with ETH, $10 billion under management. I mean, we were at $25 billion for GBTC, which is a significantly larger product and market.

$10 billion is nothing to sneeze at for ETH if we expect the bulk of that to exit. But I think a lot of that's also going to be wildly dependent on the fee wars again. We've only seen, to my knowledge, Vanette come out and say they're going to be doing 0% fees up to a certain AUM. I had Matt Siegel on here last week talking about that. I wonder if Grayscale is going to dare do a 1.5% fee structure again in the face of fee wars or if they learn their lesson because we won't see almost any outflows if this product comes in at 20 bps or something. There's been a bit of shuffling of the leadership at grayscale i do wonder whether the fee costs were something to do with that leadership shuffle and as a consequence

they have learned their lesson this time and they will decide to come out with a very competitive fee i mean that's that's my theory i mean they've tried to do this by, they've created, I think it's called mini Bitcoin or Bitcoin Lite, Bitcoin Mini or something. Yeah, it's like Bitcoin Minis with a smaller contract size. Yeah. But yeah, it might be prudent

at this point to maybe come in with slightly more competitive fees and they won't see such 50% of assets under management flow out. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. But I mean, is it fair to say at this point, though, that obsessing over inflows and outflows

doesn't really give us that much signal because they can reverse at any time and they tend to follow the technical chart anyways, right? I mean, if you're looking, we would expect that there's outflows as we're going to the bottom of support and there's going to be inflows as we push into resistance, the same way we have bullish market sentiment when things are looking good

and bearish market sentiment at support. I mean, it's kind of a reflection of the same indicators we see elsewhere. It is popular in that there aren't too many data points showing you exactly what investors are doing. And I think that's why it's so popular. But yeah, at best, it's kind of coincidence. The only thing it is quite helpful is it is helpful at market turning points.

So if you see another week of inflows, I don't think it's really telling you much. But if you do see suddenly a sort of a trough in outflows, which feels like we've seen over the last week, some caught off and actually that backtests quite well. That is a good indicator to show we're at the bottom of sentiment, alongside other things such as RSI and other measures. It helps. It's one of those things. You pointed out, I have it here in a chart, but it's my favorite indicator. You pointed out that we finally hit oversold on RSI daily, going down to about 25.9, pretty low for the daily

chart. But that was the first time that it's been oversold since August of 23, when we were down around $26,000. And you know, RSI inevitably makes the trip from overbought to oversold and back. Here you had bearish divergence for those who look at it, you know, like lower highs on RSI while we continued to push up with higher highs up here on price. That's usually a bottom. Here we didn't get the divergence

because it made us slightly higher low, but the concept here is the same. And if your guys are looking at altcoins right now, by the way, you'll see them even more wildly oversold on the daily and putting in those divergences, showing some strength. And actually, on the altcoin side of things, that's where we're seeing measurable inflows. Relative inflows, because obviously assets under management in these altcoins is a lot smaller. So if you take something like Cardano, for instance, it only has $52 million of assets under management.

But last week it saw around $1 million of inflow. So relatively, actually, that's quite a chunk of inflow. And what I've seen this year is that actually people are bottom fishing in the altcoin market. Now's the time for Europe. Yeah. And if I'm ordering by, I have a list of about 30 different cryptos that have ETFs in them. And if you look,

some of the things that have been very popular this year are Polkadot, Avalanche, Tron a little bit, Chainlink, Cardano. Tron is like a white walker from Game of Thrones. It's like an impossible skill. And it outperforms the market. Every time I look and I'm like, go scan down the list, everything's red.

It's like Tron is randomly up 1.3% or something. People take a punt on these things. And I think unless it has a true, unique use case for it, and I emphasize unique, so it's not a replication replication of something like ethereum then then i think it potentially has a chance so chaining yeah maybe tron isn't unique but it is the bulk of uh the bulk of tether volume and the bulk of actual tether is on tron it's what people use it's fast it's cheap so it makes sense that it would actually be the one that outperforms consistently i think it's just the sentiment towards it is negative, but it doesn't

matter because it's being used every single day all over the world. It's just funny because I do anecdotally always kind of giggle to myself when I see that it's up while everything else is down. We do have this sort of topic here in the title. Bitcoin's turning point is the bottom finally here. So this is based on quite a few things, right? RSI being oversold, as we talked about, of course, inflows coming back. Bitcoin's bottom in price could be near or already in the Coinbase premium index suggests. This is basically the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase versus foreign exchanges, specifically finance. And when you see it go dramatically red here, it's usually huge reversals in price. And we've been in a very sustained trend of a sizable spot discount on Coinbase. It just shows that Americans are less interested during these times and

they usually catch up to the world. James Weston Mishpahis Missing to those points is the macro element of things. So if you look at the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, so that's an overall measure that looks at when you've got an estimate on payrolls or inflation or something like that, how much it misses or beats expectations. And what we're finding is at the moment that the vast majority of macro data is missing expectations. So analysts have been overly bullish and it's coming below expectations. So that tells you something. That tells you that the macro economy is nowhere near as healthy in the

US as analysts believe it to be. And the Fed falls in that category too. The Fed is talking about one rate hike this year. The markets are talking about two. I think the markets are actually a little bit more right on this. And if we see that dot plot start to steer around over the summer months and come to September, actually, I think this will be a point which could be very supportive for Bitcoin. At the moment, I think you can attribute a lot of the initial price weakness in Bitcoin in this kind of recent dump was to do with kind of market investors being disappointed about the Fed and the dot plots and that changed to one potential rate cut this year only.

And I think that's going to turn around throughout this year. Yeah, you're not allowed to say bad things about the US economy in an election year when we're over here trying to make America great again. I'm just trying to tell you how it is. So you guys have your own election. You guys have your own election coming up. Is that going to that is Bitcoin on the docket in the UK? I'm just trying to tell you how it is. You guys have your own election coming up. Is Bitcoin on the docket in the UK?

I feel I know more about US elections than I do about the UK elections. I find it far more entertaining what's going on in the US at the moment. That's because our elections is structured like a reality show. Yeah, the college, the college, electoral college votes, the fascinating concept. Well, just the, we don't have the same kind of presidential debates, and they're not so brutal as they are.

Is that what we were calling that? I don't know what we're calling that. I mean, it was appealed as a debate. I don't know if we can call that. Although I'm pretty confident that neither of them are as good at golf, as they said. But actually, it's very clear that Donald Trump, from a crypto perspective, is a very positive outcome. He's genuinely talking about really mining all the Bitcoin in the United States, which is kind of pretty impossible.

But he's talking about it. He's very supportive for crypto. And I've just been in Texas where actually I was amazed how much political support there is for Bitcoin mining in Texas. How much the miners are curtailing and supporting the grid and helping improve profits there and and hiring the amount of hiring some of these sites do is just massive it's incredible i was in awe of it and i kind of love to i'm in love with the state of texas at the moment

yeah it's it's an awesome place i actually i was i was reading a newsletter randomly this this morning that i've probably never read before, but it was pointing out that actually kind of the opposite. So I find it interesting that we have really split sentiment. If you listen to my Macro Monday show, you know that, right? We've got bulls, we got bears. They're very divided. We either have the Great Reset and Great Depression coming or we're about to go on the most historic epic bull run of all time. But we did just have, according to this, the best first half of an election year for the S&P 500 in history. So 15% return. And usually the gains in the election years, which we know are positive,

come in the second half. And there's a lot of indicators if you're just strictly looking at the market that trump could inherit a roaring bull market uh if he gets elected and i think i think they crash it all the day after the election to be honest but hey at the last election a lot of people felt that if trump got in power so not the election before that sorry if biden got in power his market was supposed to die we were supposed to have zero the election before that when trump got in power they felt that um uh the markets would tank as a consequence of him getting in power because he was just such a crackpot but ultimately the equity markets rallied hard partly because he employed a dove at the central bank and pushed dovish policies and also cut taxes. And that was a big thing. And I think, you know, if he continues

to push the agenda of trying to keep taxes low in the United States, it will be, I think it will be very supportive for equities in a Trump way. But man, in a situation like that, and this is non-specific to Trump, because I think that neither party has a claim to being fiscally responsible. I know they're both going to print money endlessly, but that would be probably very supportive for wealthy people and the prices of their hard assets and homes, but would be pricing the lesser 99% out of effectively everything further for the next four years. I don't know what will happen, but it seems like cut taxes and higher tariffs and all

of those things is likely to drive a hell of a lot of consumer inflation. Yeah, I think you're definitely right there. It might encourage the wrong type of inflation uh and what you want but you think 60 of gdp growth in the us is attributable to consumption um so it has a very positive impact on economic growth um and actually if you're thinking about a deficit like the united states you grow your way out of these problems. You don't start charging people more taxes to do that. Yeah. Ronald says it's funny to hear two people with so little political understanding make such bold pronouncements.

I would say that we've made zero bold pronouncements, but I will actually be a chief of staff to the next president, whoever that is. I make no claims to be a political expert, guys, but we're pretty good at economics here, and some of these things are pretty base level. And what we're actually saying is that everyone's been wrong in the past. Yeah. I mean, I've actually done a lot of studying of market performance

pre and post elections in the United States. Republicans definitely do, quantitatively at least, performance pre and post elections in the United States. Republicans definitely do quantitatively, at least, do deliver better stock performance post-election than Democrats. Can anyone find me someone who has any political understanding in this country? Because I can't find them anyway. So if we have so little political understanding, that makes us just like every advisor apparently in any White House as well. So we also have, though, that's something we've talked about. Bitcoin traders position for

bullish July's Bitcoin ETF records 125 million inflows, inflows, outflows, of course. But we have I actually when I chat to you, it was about a 12 percent median return in July. But we only have one out of nine July's in the past nine years of Bitcoin that was down. It was down 9%. And every single other one is basically at 9% or higher. So July, historically, we do have a bump. The underreported part by the media here is that then August kind of retraces all of those days and then September is boring and then we wait until you know october but uh it does seem like you know we're sitting at support to go up 10 if you bottomed at 60 just means 66 that's nothing when you're looking at this trading range and we have nothing but tailwinds in my mind politically legislatively

regulatory i mean it's all looking good to me well there is a doubt there's one downer in all of this that's 11 years in the making, which is Mt. Gox selling. Okay, let's talk about that. Yeah, if you look, there's $9 billion worth potentially could go on the market. Some of it's locked up with some big sole owners or companies that have already stated that they're going to sell it. If you look worst case, we could see maybe around $4 billion worth being sold, $4.5 billion worth being sold. And we estimate that is a drag on the market. If that all came online and was sold today, for instance, in one day...

That's not how it's going to happen. No, I mean, that's not how it's going to happen. But let's say in one day that kind of not how it's going to happen. No, I mean, that's not going to happen. But let's say in one day that would, that kind of volumes like the market's trading $8, $9 billion a day at the moment on Bitcoin, that could push the price down. If they just dumped it on the market in one day, that would be a 19% downside. Of course, that's not going to happen. But let's say it happens over the course of next month. Yeah, let's say next month, that would be a 0.6% drag on price every day for the next month, which is not great. But that does imply that every single person would be selling everything, right?

You know what's going to get wrecked? Bitcoin cash. That's what's going to get wrecked. Yes, we know that. Yeah, that's a very – I couldn't do the calculations on Bitcash and come up with a sensible number, but the amount being sold is a huge proportion of the total available supply of Bitcoin Cash. So, yeah, not a great sign at all. But I actually think that the encouraging thing about Mt. Gox is this has been like an overhang, an uncertainty overhang for 11 years. Get it done.

But the encouraging thing is people had the option to take cash a little while ago or hold the Bitcoin. Right, if you were going to sell, wouldn't you just take the cash instead of going through the mechanics and tax implications of actually dealing with selling your Bitcoin? Yeah, so a large proportion of these people have opted to hold Bitcoin. So that's why I think in the end, it's probably going to be a bit of a non-starter and a non-event.

And perhaps German government selling is... Yeah, I was just going to bring that one up. But also, I just want to note that I think when they offered them cash two months ago, price was higher. So if you're thinking about, you know, I think it was in the 70s. And so if you're thinking about the mentality of a market participant, since we've all been one, if you had the option to cash out at 72 and take your money back, but you took Bitcoin and it's in the 60s or something like that. I think you're less applied to yourself.

I think this is going to be a landmark moment for the german government the the british had their landmark moment with gold back in i think it was the year 2000 gordon brown decided to sell most of the uk government's gold at 300 an ounce and that was seen as a historic mistake. And with the British being one of the largest holders of gold at the time. And I wonder whether the German government in, say, five, 10 years time are going to be talking about the same thing. Why the heck didn't they just stick in strategic reserves? The thing, though, about the United States, I guess they get a pass because they confiscated all that Bitcoin from Silk Road. So they're up thousands of percent even selling now.

Right. But it is curious timing here with the German government. Like, I don't think these numbers are meaningful. It is over two billion, I think, in total. But they're sending, you know, 17.6 million at a time. I find it strange that they're sending it to exchanges to sell in the open market and not doing some OTC deal. I find that very strange. I find the timing curious. I haven't seen any reason as to why they implemented this selling program now.

But you do have the U.S. government selling German government. Yeah, the German government. The United States are just assholes. I don't know. They probably, Gary Gensler was like, could be at the top. I told you, like, Gary Gensler is on his Nancy Pelosi. He wants to, you know, work with them. I think he's not the one selling it, guys. By the way, it's a joke. Yeah. I think German government economically is in real, well, Germany economically is having real difficulty at the moment. So

maybe that's an element of part of the rationale of selling right now. Yeah. But all of these governments, I think we agree as echo chamber members and card carrying members of the Bitcoin club should just be adding these to their balance sheet in the central bank and calling it a day. Why sell any of this Bitcoin? Yeah. I've recently been at an event, a think tank event where people were talking about should governments hold their strategic reserves. And there's quite a lot of academic backing now suggesting that governments should do this. But at the moment, as far as we're aware, we only know anecdotally. So we are, I think CoinShares is now one of the largest investors in Bitcoin mining companies globally.

And we are speaking to all the Bitcoin mining companies, as well as the hardware producers. And some of the hardware producers, some very well-known ones, have been telling us they are selling in significant amounts to governments in Asia. Really? Yeah.

And that's sort of off-the-record type stuff, I suppose. Yeah, they never announce these things. And also, you can't see the hashback. You know, we can only explain around 24% of the hashback globally at the moment. So there's a ton of other 76% of hashback. We have no clue who's doing it and who's involved in it. And it has to be in scale because if you look at the scale of the stuff in Texas, it's huge. It must be in scale because if you look at the scale of the stuff in Texas, it's huge. It must be in scale and areas where energy is incredibly cheap in order for this to work.

But I have no clue where the rest of it is. When you say Bitcoin mining companies, you mean future AI data centers, correct? Yes. Correct vernacular. Definitely competing, aren't they? AI is definitely competing for rack space now. Yes, the IRS raised $413 million. Yeah, they're all jumping on that.

You know, actually, from a numerical perspective, or from a financial perspective, it makes sense. It's AI, although it's 20 times the capex of Bitcoin mining, from a capital efficiency perspective, well, the return on capital is higher. So if you've got the stones to sort of drop a load of cash into AI, it makes sense. Although it is quite a technical,

there's quite a difference technically in terms of the amount of redundancy you need, the expertise on the ground you need to set these up and maintain, keep them maintained. There's huge contractual penalties for having downtime in AI. There's none for Bitcoin. So it's technically very challenging. There's one other story that we have to discuss, which is US Marshals Service picks Coinbase to custody its assets. It's part of a 32.5 million contract. So obviously we know that the United States government uses Coinbase to sell seized assets anyway. So this is a larger contract, not a

surprise. But the irony, I mean, you can't miss the fact that we have this bipolar, contentious, slash friendly relationship of the United States government decided, depending on which corner and government and Coinbase. I mean, they're concurrently suing Coinbase for being literally an illegal exchange. Like you don't have a broker's license, you're selling unregistered securities, shut it all down right now. But also that's the perfect place for us to sell our seized assets. They're kind of doing the same thing to most other exchanges in the US, aren't they? So, you know, they don't have much option. They want it to be a US exchange.

Coinbase is globally nowhere near the largest. They definitely couldn't use Binance. So there's not really much choices there. OTC somewhere. I mean, you find a way. I'm just saying to claim concurrently that it's an illegal exchange operating without a license, but also the exchange of choice.

Maybe that means they should continue selling on Coinbase and not sue them. Yeah. I mean, this is nuts, right? This is a bit crazy. I don't really, I just, I'm kind of used to these oxymorons in the US government at the moment.

Just take off the oxy, James. Just take off the oxy. Yes. And I think this is just indicative of where the crypto market is at at the moment. It's got this kind of slowly moving juggernaut of improving regulatory acceptance but it's been you know like look at look how polarized it is in in politics and crypto hugely polarized and senator warren

obviously hugely against it donald trump quite positive and quite supportive i get why that's happening because ultimately um something like bitcoin is threatening your own currency, the US dollar, and many other currencies for that matter, like in Nigeria, for instance. So I get why there'll always be this political resistance to something like this. Yeah. There we are. We have exactly the same problem in the UK. In fact, it's probably worse from a regulatory standpoint than it is in the US. Well, we'll see, I guess. Your election is pretty much a foregone conclusion,

right? There's no mystery and excitement there. Yeah. I mean, all the polls are running away with labor, higher taxes, most likely lower growth. Yeah, it's kind of pretty depressing from my perspective. Politics. My conclusion for the day is that politics in all of our nations are somewhat depressing. I can't say that because the people in the comments will start yelling at me that I don't understand politics and that I should have a degree in political analysis. And I don't get it. I should be part of one of our two amazing parties. But, hey, man, it's my show.

James, thank you so much always for the insight. I think it's going to be a boring couple more months and we're just going to go up and everybody's going to be like, why did I watch these shows for the last five months? You told me nothing I didn't know already. It was so obvious, but we get caught up in the nuance and the emotion every single day. Guys, you can follow James. Always incredible insights and also the research of coin shares is second to none so thank you for that thank you scott all right can't believe he called americans morons he didn't guys i'm just kidding he said it is an oxymoron i'm the one who called us morons we're all morons uh ben's asking if you're getting chris today no because it's tuesday uh we don't do you guys it's i can understand how you guys would get confused actually about

what happens on each day because literally everyone i bring on at 9 30 has a huge beard and all of them even got together to do a different show than this show that's about beards right i mean andrew listen i feel like chris is stealing all my thunder and all my people or you guys are like gathering against me what happens you guys have missed it chris inks and andrew and tillman who all have epic man beards like you know speaking of guys who like white walkers you guys are up there at the wall defending the north you know and you guys have amazing beards and you got together without me because my beard's not big enough to be on a show.

And you guys do a show. It doesn't qualify. And not only that, you shave it periodically. I mean, these are so itchy. How do you even do it? Specific tenets of beard. Okay. These are, these are very specific tenets of beard.

Yeah. You gotta get, you gotta push past theets of beard. Yeah. You gotta get, you gotta push past the itchiness, right? You gotta push past it. There's a two week window. Once you get past that two week window, you're golden. You can't even get the stuff in there to make it. You're golden, man. You're, you're golden. You gotta get past the two week window. I did the same thing several years ago. And, and you know what? Look at me now, baby. Look at me now. Nothing but compliments for the huge beards that you guys are rocking. But to be clear, it's Arch Public Day and not Christopher Inks.

Tell us why we're all over emotional moron days. Although actually both of you have a consistency in telling us about trading and that we're all over emotional morons and why we need to not be that. Yeah, it's a, you know, trading is about as base level human emotions as you could get because, you know, humans are very focused on dollar signs, right? So if I can generate some level of dollar signs, that will improve my life. So if I can't do that, I'm going to get really emotional about it. And somehow it's somebody else's fault. So when you put yourself in front of a computer and start to trade, it's nobody else's fault. You're sitting here there with your fingers, your brain, your thought processes.

It's literally some guy on Twitter's fault every time. So I don't know what the hell you're talking about. It goes wrong quickly. And so it's, you know, it's why we do what we do. You know, we do the show with Chris Beards and Bitcoin, and we talk about what we do at our firm a good deal there as well. Because, again, love what Chris does. He does a really great service from an educational standpoint. His products and services I think are fantastic. But we just have a belief that putting people in a position where they're not in front of a

computer, where their hands are off of the dials and the wheel, and you have algorithms that have a specific set of parameters to make decisions is just orders of magnitude better as it relates to creating performance. And just to give a you know, reality check to that, you know, in the past 45 days, our S&P strategy is up more than 15%. We just launched a NASDAQ strategy in the past five days. That's already up three and a half percent. Yeah, that particular strategy is not an intraday strategy. So 80% of our strategies in-house trade inside of one day and are out at the end of the day. But this strategy is a swing strategy, and here's the interesting thing about it. It got into a trade around 340 on Friday and held it overnight and closed out near the end of the day yesterday. So a really remarkable trade sticking to its parameters, sticking to what it's been told and taught to do based on the data that it's fed

by the markets, and you end up with an overall 3.3% return. So when we're in the crypto space, people don't get all jazzed up about a 12% trade or a 5% trade or a 3 and a half percent trade but what they do get jazzed up about and the conversations that i have with with folks that that engage with us they ask am i is is this system you know i understand all of it but is there a chance that i could wake up and for in 40 percent of my my money could be gone i'm like, that's the whole point of this system. So they come to the table with this crypto logic. Preconceived. Yeah, preconceived crypto logic. And the reality is we have stop losses set across all of our algorithms that stop you out before there is this catastrophic issue and event. In fact,

I tell people if a bomb goes off in Chicago at the CME, you're going to be out of your position before anything catastrophic actually happens to your portfolio. So the value associated with our algos is this. We are focused on limiting your ability to lose money and also capturing the opportunities to make money. And oh, by the way, doing that without you having to turn into a professional trader. You can go do whatever you want. Go do something else. I'm old enough to remember. I'm old enough to remember when that's what hedge funds did. Uh-huh. Yeah, that's right. You know, before they were speculative vehicles driving and manipulating markets. The purpose of a hedge fund used to be

to outperform to the downside and hedge against bad situations. And maybe you underperform to the upside, but you're always protected. And that's why rich people invested in hedge funds because they were confident if the market took a 30% or 40% shit or went into a recession that you'd just lose 10 percent. I want to have more capital to the upside.

And so even if your hedge hedge fund, you know, if the market went up 30 and your hedge fund only made 25 percent, you're doing it with tons more capital because you didn't lose on the downside. Well, here's the thing. And that's what a hedge fund is supposed to be. Yeah. Yeah. That's the word hedge fund is supposed to be. Yeah. Yeah. That's the word hedge, right? The whole point was hedging against downside associated with tough markets. And so the markets could be down, you know, 12% for the year in the S&P, which by the way, is a historically terrible type of year. And your quote unquote funds in that hedge fund are only down 2%, right? That's significant outperformance. But for us,

even to the upside, our entry-level product is 138.8% per year. That's remarkable. Those are remarkable upside numbers while also mitigating risk, right? So if you're talking about a hedge fund in your pocket, so to um you know we we we do pretty remarkable work in in that space i will tell you that we're going to uh announce a winner of our industry pass for the bitcoin conference here today on uh our our twitter page triarch public should that appear today yeah i'd be like yeah that would have been cooler you're right that would have been cooler you may notice right. That would have been cooler. You may notice by my background, I'm a smidge distracted currently.

Yeah, I mean, you're literally sitting sideways. That's right. There's no distracted that you've turned the earth on a strange angle. And so, yeah, we're going to announce that today. We're going to be at the Bitcoin conference in a big way. We're going to have a couple of events, have a couple of dinners. People will be able to meet the amazing and slightly disappointing in person, Scott Melker. Yeah. And so, yeah, we'll announce that and enjoy that. It's we we also we plan on announcing our Bitcoin product at the Bitcoin conference itself. And I will say that, you know, we we're finalizing some testing yesterday. And the other guy that's usually here with the beard, Tillman, it's not often that he gets so excited that his voice gets even higher pitch than it normally is. Love you, Tillman, by the way.

He was very excited yesterday. We wanted that. Very excited today. Yesterday talking about the results and the opportunities and the specs. Not just about overall upside return, but the levers and pulleys inside of that algorithm that allow you to consistently dollar cost average into a Bitcoin position also on top of the performance that the algorithm itself creates. Pretty remarkable stuff. So what do you think of the United States government signing a contract with coinbase to uh custody their bitcoin you know the doj yeah here's here's a great analogy here's a great analogy for how

backwards government is as it relates to quote unquote technology um the government was the last vestige of use of blackberry phones i don't know if you remember this but back in early days of obama they refused to get rid of the blackberries they wouldn't they wouldn't let go of blackberries because they were secure more secure than apple iphones right same same thing here that they were the last people on the planet using blackberries right until they didn't same with this because they like that snake game i get it yeah and the stupid roller thing listen i i moved from my phones away from blackberry in 2009 so i kind of held on a little bit longer than people did as well but it's the same it's the same concept is that they can't get out of their own way they think they're smarter than everybody else and uh you know um the government use it do these

agencies talk to each other does the doj talk to the sec about this stuff like hey we're going to announce that we're working with coinbase basically throwing eggs in your direction could you sue them a little less i I mean, just do a little less. And then, I mean, you have the Supreme Court and an entire other branch that just basically said the entire suit against Coinbase because of the Chevron decision is irrelevant anyways. It's really fun. Good time.

It's remarkable to watch the crypto space evolve to some extent without doing a ton. We watch governmental entities kind of emult in front of our face. We're like, all right, if these guys want to really make stupid decisions and have the courts remove power from them because they've done too much, all right, we're happy to step in and take a rightful position in the process. Yeah, there's a lot going on. And it's my presupposition that over the course of the next six months, the first three months are going to be boring. The following three months are going to be pretty remarkable. I think we're above 80K by the end of the year and then halfway through next year, 150. So, yeah, good times to be stacking quote unquote sats.

I put a tweet out earlier today that said, hey, everybody that thinks, you know, ton is the next coolest thing. Please, please sell your position to buy Bitcoin. Please. I've seen this story a thousand times. I don't know any time. I mean, I've seen it like, you times i don't i mean i've i've seen it like you know xrp ada anybody remember kin back in like 2015 16 they had oh i remember it i owned a bunch and then they got sued by the sec yeah you know millions of users and that's how we're gonna

create value okay how'd that go? How did that go? So yeah, buy Bitcoin, please. It's not hard. Don't make it harder than it is. It is really easy. You know what? Use our algorithms. Take the weekly. Buy to dollar cost average and stop.

Dollar cost average into Bitcoin. Don't make it complicated. And oh, by the way, you don't have to do anything every day. You don't have to, you know, we get questions like this, you know, hey, how involved do I need to be in this? Because, you know, we're buying a place in such and such. I don't want to give it away too much. And we're going to be gone for four months out of the year. I said, listen, you can move to Mars. It doesn't matter. Just sign up, put money in your account. Everything happens with you doing nothing, just doing nothing.

Sign up, right? I love doing nothing and making money. Yeah, yeah. It's a good way to go about it, right? Yeah. I think that's what it's like to be a politician in the United States. Right. The Nancy Pelosi plan.

Yeah. By the way, I saw Novogratz on CNBC this morning, and kudos to that guy. He's done a lot. He's put his own capital at risk. He's made a lot of money in the space. But he said something that was politically related. He's like, whoever wins, and he's not pro-Biden, obviously, everybody that was even remotely. related he's like you know whoever wins and he's

not pro-biden obviously everybody that was even remote he is a huge he's one of the biggest democratic donors yeah he is he is he hates elizabeth warren yeah big time he's like well i think you know no matter what happens uh you know i think we're going to get you know pro crypto regulation and i thought to myself and i don't don't know. I don't know if Democrats win, no matter who they end up, you know, who ends up being the head guy there, right? Who knows how that looks over the next month? And you still have Elizabeth Warren and Garen Gensler intact, pro-crypto regulation? I don't know. I don't, really? I'm not sure. I think Gensler might be out no matter what. And I think that the good news is, in his defense, I think the Supreme Court just made regulators a lot less relevant.

So even if they try. Here's the thing about that, though. Here's the reality with it. You have to have organizations that are committed legally to fighting regulators all the way to the Supreme Court for stuff like that to matter. That's mad. Yeah. It's not going to stop Gensler. On Friday, he literally did the same thing with consensus.

Two hours later. Yeah. So regulators are going to be like, all right, cool. We're going to do what we're going to do. Let's see if you've got the you-know-whats to go the distance. Let's see. Right? Because most people don't.

I feel like Gensler's gone no matter what. Maybe it's my like cognitive dissonance and I just believe he's such a political liability. Probably. Probably. Yeah. I, yeah. I mean,

there's the reality. There's best case scenario. There's worst case scenario. Right. Reality is always somewhere in the middle. Right. So that's kind of the thesis that I stick with. And I don't think we get best case scenario with crypto.

I don't think we get worst case. I don't know what reality is, though. Thus, kind of stick with Bitcoin. Totally agree. Andrew, thank you, guys. The art's public. You've got to do it. So many people here are doing it.

This is the one thing I've ever had on my show that nobody's bitched at me about. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Yeah. We were talking about like, whose fault are your trades? And I was like some guy on Twitter, like you guys will notice my content.

I got popular in 2019, 2021 trading, 17, 18, 19, 21 trading. All my content was charts and do this. People end up hating you you it's not worth it buy an algorithm and go live your life my god like my content is interviews for a reason you can yell at those people for their answers don't yell at me yeah yeah we and we have we have dozens guys so it's not just an entry level where you're trading one, but we have levels where you're trading two, three, six, and 12. So, um, really real opportunity to, to spread out

risk and get uncorrelated results, but I had fun, had fun in your pocket. It's good stuff, man. Amazing. Thank you, Andrew. Uh, we will talk very soon. I'm sure guys check out for the giveaway and I gotta, I'm going to let you go. I got a couple more things here. Thank you, Andrew. We will talk very soon, I'm sure. Guys, check out for the giveaway. And I'm going to let you go. I got a couple more things here. Thank you, man. Everybody follow AP underscore Abacus on Twitter as well. And I want to know why his earth is sideways.

So I'm like a whole different part of the earth. Just want to tell you guys, in case you don't, I never do these little personally things, but I put out my thousandth issue of the Wolf Den newsletter, which is entirely free today. 1,000 issues. And I write all this. Look at it. Look how many things. It might be too much. I've actually kind of started to believe that maybe I put too much, like legacy markets

and whatever. You notice it is less charged because I don't push as many trades anymore. All the news, everything, all my thoughts. I mean, a thousand. I'm just in shock that I've written a thousand free newsletters. It's probably like a full set of encyclopedia Britannicas for boomers like myself. I wake up at like four o'clock in the morning every single day, sometimes five I sleep in. And, you know, I work on this thing and I write this thing and I pour over it and it keeps me accountable ahead of the day. But, man, it's a lot. And getting to a thousand was a pretty meaningful moment, I guess. It doesn't matter. People are like, ah, you got this many subscribers, whatever. I guess it's not that big a deal. I guess this is my plea for you guys.

Subscribe. It's literally free. It's free. Clint says scale it back. Clint's like, yeah, it's too much, dude. Don't want to read that. Don't want to read that. It's garbage. And it used to be, when I started, it was literally just a trading newsletter. It was just a ton of charts. And then it became like these deep think pieces. Today, I wrote about how Bitcoin is past the point of no return. Look at all that. Look at all this writing. Do you write that much? I write that much. Every morning. Every morning, we write it, man. So you guys should subscribe. The link is down below. Also, I should note, I've been remiss to tell you guys this most weeks because I'm dumb. But you guys, I told you about the roundtable, which I'm a part of with the Allpoint Daily guys and George and James Heckman, all these guys. But there's a link right down below.

It says, join us here to discuss this week's crypto news with no bots. There's a link to the roundtable. I go on there periodically. And throughout the week, if you guys comment, I will actually come in and respond to you guys. We can talk there. Can't talk here unless we're live because all the comments are like, buy Amazon AQX97. You have changed my life with your trades, Amazon AQX97. You can't do YouTube comments. You can't do Twitter. Twitter's fucking dead. Twitter is wild. You guys don't know this. I've talked to a bunch of people, Peter Schiff was saying it, Raoul Paul. Every day, not that the metrics matter, I just don't understand it. It's

probably been four months. Every day you get follower, follower, follower, follower, and your numbers go up like 1,100 for a bunch of us. And then you wake up in the morning and you're down 1,500. Every single day for like four months. Maybe they're wiping old bots, but the numbers are almost exact. Every single day. It makes no sense. It's insane, but you cannot like get new followers on X. And even if you do, it just like deletes an equivalent amount every day, months, months, months. These social media platforms are so fundamentally broken. I have no idea what's going on with them. I actually, we were joking about the BlackBerry. I tried to go to a flip phone recently.

I took X off my phone. So I have, it's hilarious. If you don't believe me, I have, this is my situation in case you're wondering. I'll show you the back of the phone so you don't get any of my alerts. This is my situation my situation right all for different purposes that i randomly uh bring places i have my main phone which has no social media on it i took it all off so i have to have this phone to do spaces because you need uh another phone you have to do spaces on the phone you can't do it on a computer so i do spaces on that phone my main phone where i live my life and then like you know extra i won't get into that got a lot of phones um and i tried to go to a flip phone and my wife was like you're gonna be so embarrassing you can't so i just took everything off the phone because it would be kind of embarrassing to pull out like a

motorola razor although i do think that that is the future of it. Yeah, man, you know, social media, thousand newsletters. I got ADD. You guys are watching it. Third phones for crypto adjacent things, to be honest. You know, you got to have one for like that's completely separate for 2FA and for things like that. I got a lot of phones. Someone's saying I'm a Citi fan. I'm an OKX fan. They sent me this jersey. I got a lot of phones. Someone's saying I'm a city fan. I'm an OKX fan. They sent me this jersey. This is a one of 20 jersey in the whole world. There's only 20 of them and they sent me one. You guys might not know this. I'm a global brand ambassador for OKX. It's like me and Daniel Ricardo and Ian Poulter, the golfer, and Scotty James, the snowboarder. I'm the only crypto guy.

And it's not like shilling ref links and pushing things like that. It's because I know what's coming with them. I know what they're building. They're heavy in Web3. And they've got amazing partnerships with McLaren and Manchester City. And so I rep for them man it's amazing awesome old is new again bring back the razor i know i'm thinking about it man um dirt hunter how far are we into this video i don't know man we're deep we're deep that's all

i got guys whatever man no bots go over the round table hang out read my newsletter it's in the description like if you're not subscribed like you can do the same thing you do with every other newsletter, which is subscribe and never read it, but also never unsubscribe. So it shows up in your inbox. Today, I unsubscribed. I'm not kidding. I lived in Miami now probably eight or nine years ago and somehow got on a bunch of real estate newsletters. This morning, I got one in Spanish and realized I get it every single day and have never unsubscribed. And I unsubscribed. Anyways, guys, that is all I got for you. Read the newsletter. Also, at some point, we're going to have a chat about future content and things that I'm building and ideas and whether you like this content and whether you think the newsletter should be different or my YouTube shows be different.

We're thinking about actually moving the YouTube show more towards macro Monday type shows, like gathering a panel each day. I love doing the panels. I just really like it. I think it's better content. It's more differentiated from what other people are doing. Thinking about that. Listen, we got a got a couple minutes what do you guys think like say i had one day it's me and like raul paul and arthur hayes and anthony scaramucci and you know whatever and then like uh wednesday we get like a bunch of like dj and altcoin dudes who are like super into gaming right and like three of them and myself and whatever and we let them fight and we let them argue. I feel like those shows are better and different

from what everyone else is doing. And when I do a show alone, I'm not giving you guys the alpha that the other channels are. I'm not on here like, dude, buy my meme. Or like altcoins down 97% tomorrow, the day of yesterday, Thursday. Thinking about it.

You guys seem to like it. You guys seem to like it. Problem is I talk less. You know, I used to come on here and people liked, I told you when I originally did this content, it was like me and a camera and some charts and 90s rap lyrics and a lot of one inch jokes. You know?

And now it's just like me talking to people. Yeah. You did something like that before structured half-guest, half-training. That's what we do on Wednesdays and Thursdays. I have Dan from Chart Guys on the back end and Chris Inks on the back end on Wednesdays. It's good. I just really like the panels, man. I've gotten very comfortable to spaces.

We used to on Thursdays, you guys may not remember, but the first time we did a panel, we just started inviting people and we would have them like popping in and out for like two or three hours. It was crazy. Bring back the air horn. And it was amazing. But like, I hate to admit,

but like everyone used to get excited because SBF used to to pop in once a week. And he would not be able to connect his thing. And he'd be in the beanbag. And super embarrassing now in retrospect. We had this kind of rotating panel where new people would pop in. And we'd be inviting them. And it was fun.

I think it'd be fun. I think it'd be fun. But there was a time when it was just me. And you guys liked my jokes and whatever. KG says my ADHD is showing. Your balls are showing. Bubble-way tuna. Bubble-bee tuna.

Safe and sure, too, in case you guys are wondering. Oh, the shib mitt. It's here. I got all kinds of shib things. I got the shib mitt. I got a a ship pooping got this one that says your mom's a hoe in japanese um and i got this this one right i went to japan and i just loaded up on ship stuff

uh panels are cool, but macro Monday has the differing views. Avoid echo chamber panels. Yeah. I just want people to fight. David, David's out of here later, guys.

I'm out of here too. It's ridiculous. And the liquidator, it's hot out there. The liquidator is not here. My kid took it to actually use it as a gun. Bubblebee tuna. Bumblebee tuna.

You heard, you knew that joke. Tenacious B knew that joke for me. Where can I access your DJ mixtapes? They're on this YouTube channel. Just dig deeper. They're here. They're here.

Anyways, guys, that is all I got. Sorry for those of you who hate ADHD. Later. Let's go.