The Wolf Of All Streets - Breaking: Bitcoin Breaks ATH W/ Scaramucci! | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: March 5, 2024

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Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, Dave, we got to see and celebrate an all-time high live, buddy. And then come back here. Yeah, and then you saw the almost immediate flush, and now it's recovered half the flush already. Yeah, no surprises there. I mean, it's textbook. I mean, you know, I don't know how else to say it. I want to go back to 67.4, basically. So, top-down coin.
Starting point is 00:00:24 I'm looking at Coinbase, guys. 69,003. I want to go back to 67.4, basically. So it topped on Coinbase. I'm looking at Coinbase, guys. 69,000, 3,000. I want to get it exact. I don't want to tell you. If you're looking at Coinbase. 69,324, and then it immediately dropped to 67,486. Yeah. It's amazing.
Starting point is 00:00:40 The 24-hour liquidation rate, given this move, is almost exactly even. The shorts were carried out $292 million. The longs, $261 million. Even over the last hour, $22 million got flushed. On one side, $20 million. On the other, it's crazy. I'm actually surprised it was that small for the last hour uh given you know that that immediate you know it hit the all-time high and someone just dropped a bomb and knocked it down you know a
Starting point is 00:01:11 pure candle well we did it i mean uh mario you're welcome i took all that time off i know you were really happy about it and i want to make sure that i never came back until we hit all-time high so you're welcome for that. He has no response. He has nothing you can even say about it. But yeah, I obviously missed quite a bit of time here. What a week for me to have been quote-unquote off work, even though I was writing newsletters and everything. Bitcoin basically in that week went from, I don't know 50 to to here right under the all-time high but absolutely incredible that we uh hit it today and we can celebrate i
Starting point is 00:01:50 think a lot of people uh probably surprised uh that it happened so quickly dave and i you and i were talking about this obviously this morning uh you may be less surprised than others but i think people a lot of people were looking at the four-year cycle and saying not until the fall, right? I mean... I didn't think it would take that long, but I will admit the inflows have been stronger than I expected. But, you know, hey, it just goes to show that there is a lot of... All the stuff we see in the polling, Bitcoin is at its core a vote against trusting the current fiat institutions.
Starting point is 00:02:28 And I don't think there's a lot of trust there. Yeah, I agree. So we've got an amazing panel today. I know we've got Anthony Scaramucci coming on, I think, in about 10 minutes. I just found out Mario was on a plane and I was talking to him like, you know, animal spirit. So he doesn't even get to say anything. We can mock Mario as much as we want today. Anyone who feels like it. Peter, I would love your take on this. Obviously, this preempted the four year cycle, huge move here on Bitcoin, broke all time high, a lot of volatility right
Starting point is 00:03:01 afterwards. What are you looking at at the moment? You know, I'm just not going to get shaken by the fact that the market doesn't go up every day by $2,000. I mean, you know, I think we're at the point here back at the old time highs where we back and fill. It's not like the old time highs is that much of a significant technical point to me. But I just think you probably have a few folks that say, hey, I'm going to take some profit here. So you have a little bit of supply. I mean, hey, these markets are all basically about supply and demand of buyers and sellers. And, you know, of course, we have a huge demand of buyers coming out of the ETF world. But, you know, we've had a lot of people who have sat with this market long over 65,000 for quite some time now. And so I think it just is natural that there'll be some folks that will say, hey, I'm going to feed some of my supply back to the market. And it wouldn't surprise me to see the market check off here. And maybe I don't know where we go to the market. It wouldn't surprise me to see the market check off here. And maybe I don't know
Starting point is 00:04:07 where we go to the downside. I mean, I certainly don't see us too much under 60 if we get a good correction. But hey, I don't think there's really anything that concerns me whatsoever with owning Bitcoin here. So I wouldn't make too much of the fact that the market just doesn't go up every day, that it might pause here a little bit, that we could see a correction. And again, I wouldn't see a correction much back below 58. 58 to me would just be a wonderful buying opportunity. I am not selling, I have not sold anything. I am not planning to sell anything. I continue to look at the
Starting point is 00:04:53 halving date as the halfway point, the bull market from the November 2022 low. And, you know, so that's my thought. I look at any weakness as a buying opportunity. And of course, I don't really look at anything other than Bitcoin and a little bit ETH. And I'm not a big fan of
Starting point is 00:05:20 all the other jobs. So my comment is really restricted to Bitcoin. What do you make of it hitting this point now before I think a lot of people viewed it as time in the halving cycle? You know, I'm more concerned, you know, it's not unusual. You go back over past halving cycles that the market just kind of stalls a few weeks before a month or so after and if you go back to the previous having cycles just didn't moonshot through those having cycles those having
Starting point is 00:05:53 cycles are significant of course because there's a slight reduction of of supply especially at this point in the having cycles but um yeah i to, I just look back at the history that halving cycles have been exactly halfway between the eventual high of a bull market cycle and the starting point of the bull market cycle, which goes back, of course, to late 2022. So I just don't really want to make too much of an individual price bar or candle or even weekly price bar or candle at this point in time. You know, we've come up a long way. You know, we're pretty much straight up from 38,000 here. You know, we doubled price in a very short period of time.
Starting point is 00:06:45 And so I would look at a little bit of a stall here as actually very, very healthy to the market. I would love to see the market stall here. I'm not sure it's going to, but I think it would be extremely healthy if we saw the market develop into a $10,000, $15,000 trading range for a few weeks. Brian, what do you make of what's happening here? Do you think that this is on the ETF volume pretty much? Yeah, I think it's hard to ignore the demand for the ETFs and how much buying pressure that's bringing into the market. I think that a lot of people, including us at Bitwise,
Starting point is 00:07:26 didn't really expect to see this much demand. It's certainly unprecedented in the ETF world. And I think it's undeniable that's having a big impact on the price here. The other big market to watch now is gold. And of course, you can say, hey, gold is rallied out of sympathy of Bitcoin. And that very well could be the case. But the reality is, if you look at gold, and let's say the proxy for all the variations of gold is GLD, the ETF, we have now made a new all time high as of yesterday. You know, we've taken out all the highs, we are an uncharted territory. And that's true for the nearby continuation chart of gold as well.
Starting point is 00:08:09 And so you may want to discount it if you would. But to me, price is king. And as long as GL spot gold stays above 1980, I think we have now begun a new bull market in the yellow metal. Ran, what's up? Excited? I talked to my co-host and it's just like by myself. So embarrassing. I feel like they got together and were like,
Starting point is 00:08:42 we're not going to respond to anything Scott says today. Just let him speak to himself. Ryan, you want to co-host or something, man? Sure, man. I'm here. I'm here for you. We just got your thoughts. Andrew, we just added you. What do you make these all-time highs today, man? Pretty crazy. The difference in price action since the Bitcoin ETFs, it's an entirely different asset class. You're looking at price action that's muted and volume is very limited in the overnights. And Larry Fink just
Starting point is 00:09:18 absolutely dominates. I put a tweet out at around 8 8, 830, it becomes Larry o'clock. And now it's time to see what's going to happen with Bitcoin. And that's playing. It's playing itself out on a day to day basis. What's really remarkable to me is the continued increase in surge in volumes and in inflows. You know, this has moved on. The narrative continues to evolve. It went from a buy the rumor, sell the news, right? Then it wasn't sell the news. And now you're looking at an asset class that is putting itself in a dominant position in 2024 um in a way that's very very different um than it was back in 2021 um an entirely different way that that that bitcoin
Starting point is 00:10:16 is acting um and again you know it's larry o'clock so so what's going to happen what's going to happen today and today's a new new high pretty pretty remarkable stuff getting smacked down at the moment though yeah yeah well you know people taking people taking profits you know it's uh you you hit you tip you tip a new high um generally speaking it's uh uh it can be a a a smart idea to take some profits. But I don't see in the medium term any of this momentum slowing down. I just can't see it. And it's as if we've forgotten about the halving is literally right around the corner. That's going to have a material impact on price. And we're going to find out what that material impact is going to be. I mean, you have
Starting point is 00:11:12 these ETFs that are actually gobbling up Bitcoin on a daily basis. When halving happens, they're going to be gobbling up twice the amount effectively. It's pretty incredible. You said you're a bit surprised at the continued volume of the ETFs. But I think as we see this trickle of Carson Group, 30 billion AOM RIA platform last week, I think the news today, Merrill and others are starting to allow the ETF. So I think that you see continued volumes because it's just the gates are opening to new participants and who are just getting access. I could see if at one time everybody had basically been able to buy these, every advisor, et cetera.
Starting point is 00:12:00 But since we're just sort of having them come online slowly, I guess that trickle should keep the demand. Yeah. And it's, what's interesting is, is it's not, it's not necessarily a trickle every time a new tier is opened up, right? Every time a new tier is opened up, that's a huge fire hose of capital that's being added to the other fire hoses of capital. And so, you know, you've got Morgan Stanley, that's really, really close to opening up the Bitcoin ETFs onto their platform. I spoke with
Starting point is 00:12:33 a couple of people in their PWM division earlier this week. That's going to happen very, very quickly. And the thing with Morgan Stanley that I keep hearing is they're not just going to open it up to like accounts with 10 million or more in, in, in assets long at the firm, it's going to be available to, to the firm, uh, to people that, that, that do business with Morgan Stanley is very different than, than Merrill Lynch. So, um, yeah, that's going to continue to happen. Again, volumes, it really, you know, to have volumes that rival, you know, the S&P 500 ETFs that have been around for a long time, and frankly, are the bedrock or the cornerstone of, you know, portfolio management in wealth management. An S&P 500 ETF is where a portfolio management conversation starts with every single client that exists in wealth management. It doesn't matter if you're 28 or if you're 88. They're going to allocate something to that particular ETF. It just depends on the percentage that they're going to allocate to.
Starting point is 00:13:51 So to be able to have conversations about, oh, you know, I did nearly as much as, you know, the Vanguard S&P 500. That's remarkable. That's a remarkable conversation to be having. Bran, we did it. Yeah, I mean, I expected a rejection. To be honest, I think we'll probably get a bit more of a rejection. It just doesn't feel like, you know, I think the all-time high is a very big psychological level.
Starting point is 00:14:24 And I think for Bitcoin to break the all-time high first time around even second time around the third time around just it just feels like too much of a big psychological level i mean i'm very bullish about what happens afterwards i just think it's going to be a bit harder than the market is giving us is giving it credit for if you know what i'm saying i mean it's technically broken but you mean it's very clear that you would get that sort of wick above and then the rejection. It's not broken until we close above the all-time high. I mean, the fact that we ricked past it,
Starting point is 00:14:53 technically that's not a real close, right? We technically only break the all-time high when we close above the all-time high. I would love Peter's opinion on that. Peter, what do you think? above the whole time. I would love Peter's opinion on that. Peter, what do you think? There's now a close of Bitcoin, Mr. Rand. That's what we're doing.
Starting point is 00:15:19 We're deciding that there's a close of Bitcoin on a daily basis. That's very trad-fi of you, sir. It is. It is. But I mean, look, for me to be convinced, I don't really buy Wix. I think Wix for me aren't... I mean,
Starting point is 00:15:31 I know from a technical point of view that they do, but for me I have no doubt we're going to break it, just so we're clear, but I just don't think we're going to convincingly break it on the first attempt. Not when we've had such a strong rally. It looks that way at the moment yeah you're currently correct ran so yeah i mean i'm not in the garris soloway camp and i and i
Starting point is 00:15:52 would never take a short on bitcoin in this kind of market i'm not i'm nowhere near there just so we're clear but uh i just don't believe that it's going to be that easy to break uh all-time high from a previous cycle uh that quickly i think what happens to break all-time high from a previous cycle that quickly. I think what happens after the all-time high, which is what I actually spoke about on my show today, I think that's become interesting because when you're in price discovery, I mean, anything can happen. And the last time, I think it took like 18 days for Bitcoin to double or something. So, I mean, I had a tweet. Let me just try to find it. Yeah, it was a Dylan McClare tweet. I was looking at it, but it's actually interesting.
Starting point is 00:16:26 I mean, I have it right here. One second. I would find it. Time it took Bitcoin to double after previous breaks of all-times highs. December 2020 was 18 days. March 2017, 84 days. November 2013, 10 days. March 2013, 18 days.
Starting point is 00:16:41 So 84 days being the longest. But as I sort of tweeted, you have to remember, we broke the all-time high of 65 and went to 69 and never doubled. So I don't think that that's including the entire statistical set there. Yeah, I mean, I agree. But as Andrew said, this is an entirely different bull market on Bitcoin. Entirely, entirely different bull market on Bitcoin. Entirely, entirely different bull market on Bitcoin. I think
Starting point is 00:17:08 this is a TradFi-driven bull market, and I think they have a lot more money than we're used to. And I don't think they give a shit about our all-time high, to be honest. I think they just want to carry on buying this thing. And the more they buy it, the more it features on CNBC.
Starting point is 00:17:24 And the more it features on CNBC, the more they buy it. It's strange, but that's how it is. There's no better marketing for Bitcoin or any asset than higher prices. Yeah, I think we all know that. Yeah, Peter, what do you think about the notion of an all-time high dependence on a close or a wick? It doesn't matter to me. I think that just, you know, it's splitting the hairs.
Starting point is 00:18:05 I mean, I like the old, one of the first things I learned in trading at the Board of Trade in the mid 70s from the high so we're back to this, third time back. So, I mean, it's just 68,000, 70,000, 66,000. I don't think it matters. I think we're splitting hairs here by saying it's a spindle. And I agree, spindles
Starting point is 00:18:22 to me are meaningless. So it is more important that we see a close, but just because we get a close in the new all-time highs, that doesn't mean we moonshot from there. We can get a close in the all-time highs and then have a $15,000 setback. Again, that's not a prediction. So I really don't look here at the upper 60s to be that technically significant to tell you the truth. Maybe I'm wrong, but to me, it's no big deal.
Starting point is 00:18:50 I don't know. For me, the school of thought that I come from is, you know, just the tip doesn't count. Oh, man. I mean, it depends on your age. I think it depends on your age. You know, in high school, I think it counts. Go ahead, Dave. Yeah, I mean, look, I tend to agree with Rand in terms of, like, focusing on the all-time high,
Starting point is 00:19:15 although I think your wife wins Twitter today, by the way, Scott. But for those who didn't see what she tweeted and your O response was funny. But look, you know, what really matters are the flows. And we've talked about this. The hot money comes in. They see the surge. They try to pump it up. And they see is there enough buying power behind it.
Starting point is 00:19:38 And today the answer was no. And so there was a very quick, sharp reversal. And we're seeing, you know, literally $500 moves in less than a minute. You know, there have been – I've lost track of how many of them. Hold on, hold on, hold on. And the liquidity. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Just wait, wait, wait.
Starting point is 00:19:54 I just Googled – I just went to see what Scott's wife tweeted. She's listening. She's listening. Be careful, Rand. I mean – no, no, no. But hold on. Hold on. If my wife said congrats to all those who will celebrate 69 K the proper way, I wouldn't be on spaces right now. I'm going to be honest.
Starting point is 00:20:17 He just got back from vacation. I wouldn't be on spaces at the moment. I'll be honest. I would be at home. I don't know. I don't know what you're doing on Spaces at the moment. Why don't you ask her? I'll bring her on stage. But anyway, look, the reality is that any particular level isn't nearly as important when we're still, most of the people who are holding Bitcoin, this was the point that I made on Scott's're still, most of the people who are holding Bitcoin, this was the point that
Starting point is 00:20:46 I made on Scott's show before, most of the people who are holding Bitcoin, whether they're new buyers or old buyers, actual spot buyers, non-leverage buyers, expect prices dramatically higher than where we are today. And so the question is, is how important is this? This is the hot money, the traders who are trading around these positions. And look, until all the leverage is flushed out of the system, this is going to be the dynamic. And there is a lot of leverage in the system. You know, funding rates are high, open interest is high. And, you know, you can see it in the fact that every time you look at liquidation data, even over the last 24 hours, it's almost direct, almost completely symmetrical. Longs being liquidated and shorts being liquidated over the last hour,
Starting point is 00:21:28 more longs got liquidated, but you get the idea. So there's, there's a lot of Brownian motion going on, but the underlying trend, I tend to agree with Peter. Hey, man, Emmy's here now, you know, maybe we can get your, maybe we can get your wife on stage. They can talk. Yeah. Maybe, maybe I should give them my last number What are we going to talk about? Hi
Starting point is 00:21:50 How we should celebrate today Oh, well that Is not up to me, Rian Listen, sometimes I just say things To appeal to crypto Twitter I know that audience pretty well. We, we, we, we've been on vacation for a week. What can I say? You know, jet lag, jet lag, jet lag.
Starting point is 00:22:16 I don't know what we're talking about here. Important financial information now. Yes. I mean, what do you think? Do you think that the WIC counts? I will say that Rand sounds like a hater. He was like, we just hit the all-time high. And he's like, yeah, but we're going to go down, you know. Emmy, where I come from, the school where I come from, if it's just the tip, it doesn't count.
Starting point is 00:22:41 Oh, it counts. I don't know about that. You guys, Ran and Emmy know each other in person, by the way. So I'm sorry we're subjecting everyone. Actually, Emmy, you know quite a few people up here on stage in person. But now, Emmy, we're going to go back to serious conversation. Yeah, it counts. Oh, you can remain. I want your opinion.
Starting point is 00:22:59 Go ahead, William. Hi. Sorry, I'm having some difficulties with the audio. Hopefully you can hear me OK. What I wanted to add to everybody is that I'm also looking at the overall market cap and not just Bitcoin. Obviously, Bitcoin is leading, but we had a all time high of two point seventy three trillion in November of 2021. And now we are at two fifty five. So the way things are headed, I think that's the next milestone I'm looking at. And I wouldn't be surprised that we hit the three trillion mark because a lot of the look at the next 50 coins below Bitcoin, they aren't at the all time highs yet.
Starting point is 00:23:45 And traditionally, Bitcoin will lead and then Ethereum will follow and then the others will follow even more. So right now, all eyes are on Ethereum. The difference is that now we have a lot to show for. In 2021, there weren't as many products that had crypto embedded, whether they are DeFi or TradeFi. But I'm looking more at Web3 products right now. That's the next wave. We're seeing tokens coming into more significant Web3 apps.
Starting point is 00:24:19 And at this point, I'm just sitting back and trying to process all of this. And part of me is saying, well, this is overdue. And I think the market deserves this because the builders have been building the last two years. And now they have a lot more to show off than they did two years ago. Joe, actually, so he obviously has talked about ETH. I thought it was really interesting that even when Bitcoin corrected yesterday from 68.850 down to the 65-inch region, actually Ethereum continued to go up. And we've had this sort of trend now when Bitcoin drops, Ethereum seems to sort of bounce and continue up. We saw when the ETF fake approval happened and the real approval that Ethereum outperformed. What are you seeing on Lunar Crush right now?
Starting point is 00:25:06 A, social interest, Bitcoin, is retail back? I mean, give us the summary, Bitcoin, altcoins. For those who don't know, Lunar Crush obviously does a lot of things that measure social sentiment. So Joe's always the guy we go to when we want to see what's actually happening by the data. Socially, I mean, is retail here? Are we seeing the same kind of uptick we would have seen at a previous all-time high what's going on first off I love the the banter back and forth I think we lost about 30 of the females in the audience with Rand's comment and then
Starting point is 00:25:34 Emmy came and saved us um and brought them all back um good job man yeah we're seeing we're definitely seeing uh some rotation obviously you, if you've been paying attention to the market, you've seen the meme coin rally that's kind of pushed forward. I think that's kind of hitting its top a little bit here this week. And we'll probably get our focus into another sector going forward. But yes, we were posting pretty rabidly about retail is not back last week as we started to move and we've made this major adjustment. I think that, you know, that morning we posted it, they weren't back. And I think by, you know, the evening, they were starting to come back. So we're definitely starting to see an increase in, you know, the number of posts by creators who we haven't seen in a while. The number of accounts that are coming back posting about cryptocurrencies in general are coming back. So we're definitely seeing an increase in retail right now. And I think what
Starting point is 00:26:38 that's going to mean is, are we going to unlock some of the funds that are out there to flow back into alts? It's a little bit of a different story. If you've got a trillion dollars moving into Bitcoin ETFs the next year, that money is pretty locked in those ETFs or in other stocks. You're probably going to move or can move from an ETF back to Tesla stock or Netflix netflix you know you cannot buy uh dogecoin um in your brokerage account yet so i i think that there's going to be some money locked there but a rising tide does lift all boats there's a lot of money unlocked um in the web3 space and also you know this this last rally we didn't have uh bitcoin web uh web wallets in our browser um and and now
Starting point is 00:27:23 we do um and so i think there's a lot more bridges that are built that are very trustable across ETH to Bitcoin as well. And so I think that's going to unlock some more, some more as well. Peter, you had a comment? Yeah. New York times just issued to all their online people that Bitcoin made new all time high. So I know it's short-term. I'm always into the game to fade the New York Times. So we would probably definitely get a little correction here anyway.
Starting point is 00:27:55 That's funny. Joe, I want to ask you, when you talk about the metrics for retail coming back, do you think that that's new retail? Or is this the people that, you know, bought in the previous cycle, downloaded the Coinbase app, sat there, forgot about it, and now are regaining interest? Or is this actually new participants in your mind? I believe it's the same people from the last cycle that are, again, going to just open their wallet, right? They're like, I thought I had money in here. Where's my money over there? Like, how much is that worth now? And I think they're coming back and realizing that it's, you know, primarily it is Bitcoin, top tier layer ones, maybe some
Starting point is 00:28:35 projects that, you know, they missed in the bear market. And they're probably realizing, you know, there's only a couple of standout projects from last cycle that they potentially invested in that are, you know, we will call it market cap 500out projects from last cycle that they potentially invested in that are, you know, we will call it market cap 500 to 1000 from last time that actually are returning, you know, returning, you know, any any income this time. So I think it's probably like you're saying, it's a lot of folks last cycle. But, you know, if we look a year ago, on Bitcoin, you know, we're talking 7,000 to maybe 10,000 people a day posting across X, TikTok, Reddit, YouTube. You know, in this last week, right now, today, we're at 50,000. We had a day. That's crypto entirely. There were only 7,000 to 10,000 people talking about crypto across all platforms a couple of ago. Wow, that's...
Starting point is 00:29:25 No, no, that was a year ago. Oh, a year ago. Sorry. I'm just looking at Bitcoin. Even a couple weeks ago, we were half that. We're looking at 30,000, 25,000. And so we're seeing a big increase in people that are coming back just this last week. 50,000 is still astoundingly low to me. It's, it's incredibly low.
Starting point is 00:29:51 The people that are coming back to Coinbase, what's interesting there is that, that even though it may just be the same people that are coming back to their Coinbase app, you have to think to yourself that those people, the additional people that are now coming that aren't going to touch the Coinbase app, but are going to sit in their khaki pants and loafers and listen to their financial advisors say that they should probably have a one or one and a half
Starting point is 00:30:17 percent allocation to a BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF. That number is millions of people, right? That's going to be millions of people. Um, so the, the, the, the price, um, we just, I, I just can't find a way personally to be anything other than a bullish short and midterm. Um, you know, another thing that I, that I just thought of is we've never had an at the high before the having like this, right? That's unprecedented. That's never happened. I don't think we're talking about that enough. I'd love to get somebody else's opinion on that. That seems like a really big deal to me. Yeah, that's what I was talking about with sort of preempting the cycle. But a few people here seem to be very surprised by that.
Starting point is 00:31:10 I agree, Andrew. I kind of said I was surprised. There's no one worried about the funding rates. I've never seen funding rates like this. It's a joke. I mean, there's no one here worried about the fact that you're paying 100% to long certain coins. Is that the case? I haven't looked at Bitcoin. I know you're talking about specifically altcoins. Dave, you have your hands up. Maybe you have an idea there.
Starting point is 00:31:34 Yeah. I mean, essentially, there's a lot more marginal leverage, although the funding rates have definitely, well, actually not on KuCoin. I'm looking at Bitcoin funding rates. Let me read you some funding rates. On Binance, 98%. On OKEx, 116%. On Bybit, 102%. This is Bitcoin, guys.
Starting point is 00:31:56 Bitcoin. You're paying 165% annually. You're annualizing the eight-hour number? Because the eight-hour number, yeah, okay. Yeah, I mean, we've seen this before at local tops. There are people who are desperate to hold on to their long positions, and they will get flushed when the market flushes. The question is, is that from what point does the market flush? But yeah, I've been pointing this out for a few days. I think that it is definitely
Starting point is 00:32:25 concerning, but it's also how much liquidity is there versus how much the liquidity is coming in. I mean, we see this every time. This morning was another classic, I'll call it the Wiley Coyote chart formation, right? The market pushes higher. It starts moving higher and the speculators start pushing it up. And then the speculators are waiting to sell their bags to the people that are going to come behind them. They look around, the people haven't come behind them and boom, we whooshed back down. So we whooshed up 2000, we came back down 2000. But you're right. The funding rates are indicative of people. The long speculation is definitely driving on the perpetual swap markets, there's no doubt. To Joe, who talked about people talking about crypto across social media,
Starting point is 00:33:12 a year or so ago, it was 7,000, 10,000 people. Just a reminder, all those 7,000 to 10,000 people were telling SBF to eat shit. That's really all we had to talk about back then. It's very, very different, you know, very, very different conversation now. It's also remarkable to me that even though it's not the case, from a narrative standpoint, from a what is everybody talking about standpoint, it's almost as if Binance doesn't exist. Nobody talks about Binance. Nobody talks about, you know, what's going on with flows or anything with Binance. We just mentioned the funding rate on Binance. It's the first time I've heard anything about Binance in months. Again, think about the change in narratives.
Starting point is 00:33:58 Like I said, everybody a year ago was telling SBFD shit and all that stuff. But Binance is almost as if it no longer matters, which again is a sizable, sizable shift in how Bitcoin is seen and how Bitcoin is viewed. And again, which goes to price action. I'd like to speak a little bit, if's all right here. Please enjoy the social. Obviously, I don't think most people know, but my background is running a digital marketing agency for the last 12 years. So I'm pretty well versed in the social as well. And I think it's important. I'm not so surprised by those numbers because, you know, this is the only platform where
Starting point is 00:34:44 the majority of people are talking about it on a regular basis aside from like you said youtube and maybe a little on linkedin or but and tiktok is slowly building as well but you know the the masses are not behind this yet whether you want to believe they are or not and if they are it is a slow trickle no one's talking about it regularly. So that's not that surprising. And I don't think it will ever happen where you're going to see a huge spike in that, where it makes a big difference on socials, Facebook and Instagram. You know, especially right now, they're down.
Starting point is 00:35:19 Even at our all-time high, nobody's even on those platforms talking about it. Are they down right now? Yeah, it's they down right now yeah it's been down for a few hours now yeah um but but yeah i don't think that's so surprising and i don't think it's indicative of any importance in the market i think it's i mean it just says we're early to me right i mean if it becomes more mainstream those numbers will be massively higher to me i mean it's a bullish sentiment i i think zuck's got timepiece envy over there and he's too busy looking at billion dollar watches or whatever he's looking at but emmy's exactly right you know in the last
Starting point is 00:35:57 uh 24 hours there's over 375 million interactions so like interactions means upvotes, likes, you know, anything across. We follow Twitter, Reddit, YouTube, and TikTok right now, those four. So we don't actually grab Instagram and Facebook. A little bit more of a nuanced and tougher thing to do there. But 66% of the conversation is on Twitter, 25% of the conversation is on Reddit, 7% of the conversation is on YouTube, and 2.4% on TikTok. Is that Bitcoin specific? Is that Bitcoin specific or crypto in general? Because I was actually going to ask you if TikTok, I would imagine they'd be much more inclined to
Starting point is 00:36:39 talk about meme coins and altcoins and NFTs than Bitcoin itself. Yeah, that's Bitcoin. And then, I mean, something like Ethereum right now is 82% on X, 11% Reddit, 4% YouTube, and 2% TikTok. Now, maybe I'll look up Bonk. Let's see where Bonk's at. Bonk's 99% X. Seriously? That's where the shilling happens.
Starting point is 00:37:07 That's where they're probably thinking, even if you've got to go find some other major shit coin out there, I bet it's very similar because that's where it's easier to game. They know that the audience is there, and so that's where they're going to spend most of their time. Can I ask you? Sorry. I'm just really interested in how those metrics work.
Starting point is 00:37:27 You and Emmy might have a better idea, but how can you compare X, I still call it Twitter, to a YouTube, for example, because you may have a YouTube video that has a single mention of it, but that has hundreds of thousands of views, like Brandon's show on altcoins today, right? How does an altcoin mention catalog on Lunar Crush versus, you know, thousands of people making comments with no
Starting point is 00:37:51 engagement on an X? So that's why we call it interactions. So it's views. So even views on Twitter, you can still call it Twitter. That's I can't, I literally can't call it X. It just doesn't roll off the tongue. But that's all the interactions. So views, engagements, likes, upvotes, likes on TikToks or anything there. I find that really interesting. I find that really, really interesting. Scott, I had a thought that I'd love to get Peter and Dave's comments on as it relates to price action. And yes, this is me being a pseudo co-host. But, you know, I bid options don't exist yet, but they're going to and they're going to very soon. What is that going to look like? How is that going to affect price action when options are
Starting point is 00:38:46 introduced on the iBit, BlackRock spot, Bitcoin ETF, or the same for Fidelity? I'd love to get an answer to that, or at least a shot at maybe what options are going to do for price action, because that's going to, you know, that's just increased volume, right. That's increased trading volume on those products. And I'm, I'm interested to hear what those guys think. I just saw Mouchet joined Anthony Scaramucci is here. And we had to on for earlier. Great to have you. Did you hear that question by any chance?
Starting point is 00:39:24 Cause you probably have a great take on that. It was cutting in and out, but I'm pretty sure the question was about what happens with the options. Is that correct? Yeah, what happens to volume in general? So the volume is going to increase. And then if Michael Saylor and the Bitcoin bulls are correct, you're going to have massive buying. Right. Because these guys have to continually hedge themselves with Bitcoin. And so you'll see a math. This is the thing that Gary Gensler hated. OK, because listen to me, I think there's six thousand four hundred people on this call. Gary Gensler does not want you guys to get rich. So we understand that.
Starting point is 00:40:06 OK. And so when you put the Bitcoin ETF into gear, you touched off a tidal wave of Wall Street activity. So the short answer to that question is this is going to lead to a mega increase in volume for Bitcoin, a lot more buying by the Wall Street community to hedge themselves. And it will it will it'll be a positive flywheel for Bitcoin. All of this stuff Gensler understands because he worked in derivatives in Goldman way back in the day. And this is what he did not want to unleash.
Starting point is 00:40:41 He doesn't want you guys to get rich. OK. And by the way, his girlfriend, Elizabeth Warren, really doesn't want you guys to get rich. But she's scared shit right now because she's got John Deaton, who's a pro-Bitcoiner, and helped on the Ripple case running against her. And so a lot of us, Bob Hawkinson, others, myself, are maxing out on him. And I'll be doing a fundraiser for him here in New York. And frankly, if he wants me to, I'll be up in Massachusetts campaigning for him. But that's the answer. That's the answer.
Starting point is 00:41:12 Yeah, I absolutely agree. Just circling back since we have you here now, what do you make of us hitting this all time high sort of so quickly, this move to the upside that we've had? Are you surprised at all or did you see this coming? I don't think anybody honestly could see it coming. So I'm going to say that none of us saw it coming. But here's what I know about Wall Street. And you guys really have to pay attention because some of you are Bitcoiners and not tied into Wall Street. I've been on Wall Street for 36 years. Products are not bought on Wall Street. Products are sold. OK, so I just want you to imagine legions. This is tens of thousands of people now are being told by Larry Fink and Abigail Johnson that Bitcoin is acceptable.
Starting point is 00:41:59 You can go and buy Bitcoin. You can go and scale into Bitcoin. You can put Bitcoin in a person's portfolio. About a year ago, SkyBridge was in the pilot program for Fidelity, where we have allowed our employees to put Bitcoin in their IRAs. This is usually important because it was a pilot program at Fidelity. In the next year, it's going to be rolled out massively at Fidelity. So I don't think people fully understand the liquidity or literally the tsunami of liquidity that's coming into this asset. And remember, if you think it's digital gold and I think it's digital gold and the Wall Street community thinks it's digital gold, well, they're more important than us because they'll make it digital gold by taking an asset right now that has a trillion dollars
Starting point is 00:42:55 in market capitalization and taking it to seven to 10 trillion. And again, it's not going to happen overnight, guys, but that is the long-term case for this thing. And again, it's not going to happen overnight, guys. But that is the long term case for this thing. And it's happening more quickly because there's just no supply and they're getting this repetition of four or five, six hundred million dollars of demand daily. And what stops that? Because we know that the supply or at least new supply is about to cut in half in a few weeks. Market crash would stop that. So so if we have some type of event, God forbid, a terrorist attack, some kind of black swan event, complete escalation of the war in Ukraine spreads into something like Poland, God forbid, and you get a market crash, unforeseen circumstance. You'll shut the buying down and then you'll see like a 15 to 20 percent drop in Bitcoin. You can't expect this asset to just go up on a 45 degree angle.
Starting point is 00:43:58 I only know one asset that went up on a 45 degree angle. The person was capable of doing that for 30 years, and then they spent 150 years in jail. And of course, that was Bernie Madoff. He died in jail. So assets don't do that. But what this will do, in my opinion, is it will trade up. It will flatline for a little bit. It will trade up. The halving will accelerate the trade. And this will be a 200 to 250 thousand dollar asset before we know it. And but it will be normalized by the media because the media will accept the digital gold narrative. And if gold is at a 14 trillion dollar market cap, Bitcoin will look inexpensive at a seven7 trillion market cap. Yeah, I was speaking, I agree with that entirely. I was speaking more, I guess, specifically to the flows, right? Just the fact that it's sort of,
Starting point is 00:44:51 you know, these steady flows coming into the ETF. But of course, people can sell the ETF and those reverse just as quickly as they can sell Bitcoin, right? Well, remember something, guys, okay? Let's say I'm a BlackRock client. And I say, okay, guys, you got the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF approved. I want to buy Bitcoin. I'm not going to put in a $2 billion purchase. But I may say to BlackRock, listen, I want to scale into $2 billion of Bitcoin and I want to do it over the next five weeks even or four weeks or whatever it might be. So I think you have standing by orders at Fidelity and BlackRock into the tunes of hundreds of millions of dollars where people are saying to themselves, OK, I am lagging in. I think sovereign
Starting point is 00:45:41 wealth funds do not announce their positions, but I think it would be impossible not to believe that certain sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East now have some allocation to Bitcoin, either through these ETFs or by buying Bitcoin in the cash market. But what you're seeing right now is BlackRock, Fidelity, other Wall Streeters have lined up orders. And so these are going buy orders, sustainable long-term buy orders, unless you see something wreck this market. Does that make sense? Yeah, that makes perfect sense. Go ahead. Yeah, I mean, we've got a couple of narratives going. Anthony, we've got, you know, the ETFs and we have the halving, but it is Super Tuesday. You know, the narrative after that could be, you know, the election will start heating up. Who's who's better for Bitcoin, Donald Trump or Joe Biden? All right. Well, guys, you know, people are pissed at me because I love Bitcoin and I hate Trump. Right. So I'm like the dichotomy in the world. But I did read the Constitution. OK. And I did go to law school. And there are people on this call. OK. Particularly the wolf himself who have had personal experience with these people. OK. These people are absolutely nuts. And you do not want him to return to the presidency. You're right now thinking, OK, he'll offer some deregulation.
Starting point is 00:47:10 He's got no principles and he's got Vivek in his ear telling him to loosen up on Bitcoin. He hated Bitcoin in 2018, 2019. He tweeted negatively about Bitcoin in 2018 and 2019. So he really doesn't have an opinion one way or another. But there are people in general think, OK, Republican, less regulation. But this is not a garden variety Republican. This is a dangerous man with a very, very smart, well-disciplined team. His campaign team in 2024 is better than his 2020 team and it's better than his 2016 team. And of course, I was on his 2016 team. But I'm going to leave you with this thought, OK? You had 39 people at the most senior level in the Trump administration, cabinet level, sub-cabinet level people.
Starting point is 00:48:00 Of the 39 people, you only have one. That's Ben Carson endorsing him. Everybody else,'s on tape. Mark Meadows, who's white. He's not a I see the thumbs down. I love the thumbs down. Send in the thumbs down, because when you hear him on tape premeditating the insurrection and the white chief of staff, Mark Meadows, who's the chief witness for the prosecution. OK, it's not a sorrow sponsored D.A. OK, but it's the chief witness for the prosecution is going after him telling you what happened. If you still want this guy to be president, then I don't know. You got to get the program.
Starting point is 00:48:57 Put your hand on your heart. Put your hand on your heart. Put your hand on your heart and tell me that you would prefer Joe Biden for another four years over Trump for another four years. I would take weekend at Joe Biden's over one flu over the cuckoo's nest any single day of the week. OK. And so, yeah, I have one hand on my heart. Joe Biden is by far the most useless president that the U.S. has ever had. I will take useless over dangerous.
Starting point is 00:49:29 By the way, I got one hand on my heart and the other hand on my nuts. I'm going to tell you right now. I think you're just bitter because of what happened between you and Trump. I mean, come on. You can...
Starting point is 00:49:44 Okay, so I'm bitter. The other 38 people that work for him are bitter. We're all bitter. I love my country, brother. I love my country. I know there's severe, very serious problems in this country that have to be fixed. It's not up to me to select these people. We got two 80-year-old people running, and I wish we had two 45- or two 50-year-old people running.
Starting point is 00:50:07 Okay, but I love my country. And this country, OK, has made me who I am. It's a very flat, decentralized government. Donald Trump does not want a flat, decentralized government. So so you guys can give me the thumbs down. But I've been on the inside. I've seen the insanity of it. And I actually know how dangerous it is. And I will take the rule of law and beating the Biden administration in court all day to the potential loss of that and the potential loss of these great institutions that have helped every single person that's American on this call get rich, get successful, and live an aspirational life in America. So send in some more thumbs down. But let me say one last thing before my mic gets cut. He's going to get his ass kicked in November, okay? And you guys will remember that I said that
Starting point is 00:50:58 here in the month of March, okay? This country is not going to reelect Donald Trump. So you just watch. OK, I think it's I think it's an intelligent. No, I think it's an intelligent take, because I think, you know, we really you know, you might think that Trump is extremely pro business, but he has been bearish historically on Bitcoin. So I just think it's something that, you know, as Bitcoiners, or if you're in the Web3 space, you just have to take a look at and say, if he doesn't come out and say anything positive, then where does that leave us? It leaves us with what he said previously. And yes, you're right. It has been. It has been bearish. And so here we are with Joe Biden president. You know, we did tap all time highs today. So it's just something it's a good take. It's an intelligent take. And the stock market's at an all time high and the economy is humming. And he may be useless. But you know what? I like my president's useless versus my president's name. Dangerous.
Starting point is 00:52:00 OK. And and guys, I was in the situation room. I know what the guy is capable of. And by the way, if you're a friend of the Middle East on this call, OK, and I'm not going to pick sides in the whole thing. I'm just going to say this. He's going to be very disruptive to the Middle East because he's a lapdog and a slave to Vladimir Putin. OK. I love the thumbs down. Send more thumbs down, because let me tell you something. This is going to be a very rough year. It's going to be a great year for Bitcoin. It's going to be a very rough year in America as we fight this out. But he's going to lose and he'll likely run again in 2028. And you know what we'll do? We'll kick his ass in again. Anthony, I want to ask you, you know, we usually don't go this deeply, obviously, into the politics of it, but in a vacuum looking at what's happening in the Biden administration. Let me let me push back, Scott. You think you think the Trump guys are the right
Starting point is 00:52:56 guys, Scott? I mean, no, listen, I don't I consider myself opted out. I find it so utterly painful to look at our two options and then I want to puke. Right. And I think that that's probably how a lot of people feel. I just want to dig in with you on the current administration. And if you think that another Biden victory, we could see a change in stance about crypto. Right. Because do we think that because I know you and I have talked about Elizabeth Warren at length, who sold plenty of great stories. Do you think that she can
Starting point is 00:53:29 lose some power while Biden continues in office? So let me, without getting into names and so forth, Biden has been briefed by guys who are pro-coiners, okay? He got briefed by them in San Francisco. He was briefed recently by them in Washington. And so it's not Joe Biden, okay? It is Elizabeth Warren. And the problem with the administration is that in the last election, he overpromised people like Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren. And so Elizabeth Warren has got the keys to financial services. She's got staffers inside the White House and she's got her Robin. She's Batman driving around in the anti-Bitcoin car and she's got her Robin and Gary Gensler that's going to do her bidding. And so he knows he was going to lose those court cases. He's probably going to punt on the ETF for Ethereum, and he'll likely have
Starting point is 00:54:28 to go to court and will likely have to beat him again in court. And this is all being driven by Elizabeth Warren, which is why I'm so supportive of John Deaton. But in a next Biden administration, should that come to pass, and obviously I believe it will. She will have way less power. OK, and they're also starting to get a registration going in terms of Brian Armstrong's working on this. Ron Conway's working on this. Others of Bitcoiners who are going to put up money in these elections in 2024 and in the midterms in 2026. There are 73 million, and that's a rough estimate, of wallets in the United States. People vote with their money. And I do believe that they will force a change in government and that there'll be pro-Bitcoin candidates into 26 and 28. Yeah, I just I doubt the political popularity or will to continue with the anti-crypto army narrative indefinitely. It's embarrassing. It's embarrassing
Starting point is 00:55:35 to them. And and as I've said to these people, if you want the United States to lose its mantle of financial leadership and you want a capital flight and a brain drain, so you want human capital flight and capital capital flight, continue this nonsense at this level. And here's something I will say. OK, if we don't figure out a way to depoliticize our regulatory institutions and our Department of Justice, that's very dangerous for the United States because it's politicized on both sides. And since there's some Trump supporters out here listening to my nonsense, I will throw them a bone because this case here in New York has been unfair to Trump. And there's a tinge of Marxism in that case. And so we have to be very, very watchful of using the mechanisms of the Justice Department against these people. OK, so so I I hate the guy. And Rand is correct. I do hate him.
Starting point is 00:56:34 OK, but I don't hate him because he fired me or he attacked my wife on Twitter. I'm a big boy. I could care less about that. I hate him because he's a danger to the country that I have a deep, unconditional love affair with. That's why I hate him. You know, if you're going to send the thumbs down, take yourself off anonymous so we can have a real debate. All right. Go ahead. Go ahead, Scott. Sorry. Let me put myself back on mute. You don't need to be on mute at all. I mean, that was really the question I was trying to dig into, because I think that people view the politics of this as extremely binary. And I think it's much more nuanced as you just sort of hinted at, right? I don't think that there's a pro point in time has been somewhat aggressive against it. But I lean towards what you're saying is that those people become marginalized if they win again.
Starting point is 00:57:34 I can't speak to that specifically, but that is what I think. And do we think that Gensler would do another four years in the SEC? No way, right? No, there's no chance. He's one of the most unpopular people in Washington. His staff hates him. There's no chance he'll do it again. Yeah. Dennis, we have Dennis Porter here. Good to see you, man. Curious your thoughts on everything that's happening here, not politically. Bitcoin specifically, obviously, we're sitting here talking about legislation and the government and Republican versus Democrat. You're out on the road getting basically at the
Starting point is 00:58:10 state level, states repeatedly to pass legislation protecting Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining. So I'd love to hear your way in. Hey, everybody, how's it going? Good um yeah uh uh you know well everybody knows that i'm a pretty long-term bearish on washington dc i i don't really i didn't really hear all of what um anthony had said there with regards to his opinion on like an administrative change but i felt like i'm kind of in alignment not necessarily but on the opinions of trump necessarily but of just that that a trump administration won't necessarily make things better um my viewpoint is that really at least for the near time that anybody that's in power is going to be sort of disincentivized to adopt bitcoin and digital assets because bitcoin and digital assets are very
Starting point is 00:59:05 status quo disrupting, they're very power disrupting technologies. And so anybody in power is going to want to limit the expansion of Bitcoin and digital assets. Whoever has power over the money printer in Washington, DC is not going to want Bitcoin to come in and crash the party, right? So I just feel that even if you do get this big administrative change, I find it hard to believe that all of a sudden the country is going to become super pro-Bitcoin and we're just going to start worshipping the orange coin and letting it thrive unabated. Now, it doesn't mean it won't get better.
Starting point is 00:59:46 I think obviously, you know, Anthony was right spot on. I don't necessarily think it's a Biden thing as much as it is a Liz Warren thing. And so, you know, an administrative change could sort of neutralize that. But I don't think it will mean we're going to like usher in a new era of like Bitcoin adoption in the United States. And this is really why me and my team at Satoshi Action are so, so, so bullish at going to the state levels. We see the states as the laboratory of democracy. I also love this country, just like you, Anthony, and I really want to see us succeed. And I just won't leave it in the hands of Washington, D.C. to make that decision. And so we're going state by state.
Starting point is 01:00:27 We're passing laws to protect Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining. We're passing laws to protect your right to self-custody to make sure that there's a bulwark of states that will stand up for this technology. And that's obviously why you're focusing on the state level, I assume. Yeah, yeah. I mean, we see us very much like the cannabis industry. You know, the cannabis industry realized they woke up one day and they said, you know what, this isn't going to happen in DC. We've been waiting for decades. Let's go to the states. They've done it successfully. It worked flawlessly. And now you see that there's so
Starting point is 01:00:56 many states that it would be almost nearly impossible for them to take federal action against these individual states. And in fact, you even see folks, at least on the left, blue presidents, trying to remove Bitcoin or excuse me, trying to remove cannabis from the schedule. So you can actually create a bulwark of protection for a specific thing, whether that be cannabis or Bitcoin, but you can also influence federal policy. And it's happened before. I mean, FDIC insurance came from the States before all this bullshit existed at the federal level. There was a bunch of different attempts to create insurance programs. It was done at the state
Starting point is 01:01:34 level. And then eventually the feds were like, well, look, that shit's working. Let's take that and let's put it at the federal level. So it's very, I wouldn't say it's common. But it, but it's, it's something that does occur throughout history where the states are the laboratory democracy. They play around. They practice with something. It starts to work. And then the feds are like, oh, okay, actually, this does work. It's almost like a way to just experiment and play around with policy to see what's the best option.
Starting point is 01:01:56 So, anyways, I'll pause there. I think I generally agree on administrative change. I think that's what Anthony was getting at when I came in. Yeah, he was effectively cautioning that it's not. Yeah. Yeah. I think that that's exactly what he was comforting. Anthony, then I want to ask you, we talked about John Deaton, obviously. He's a friend and we talked to him frequently. Do you think that focusing on elections like that are much more impactful and important, actually, than who wins the presidency? Well, I think it's I think it's both. I think, unfortunately, it's holistic. And I totally agree
Starting point is 01:02:30 with Scott saying related to going state by state. You know, remember, these guys are wickedly smart and they're in an oligarchic duopoly. I just want to ask everybody rhetorically, if we all know that the Congress, the House and the Senate has a 14 percent approval rating, why do the individual incumbents have a 94 percent reelection rate? So I just want you to imagine yourself as a consumer and you're working at a business and you have only one in five of your customers like what you're doing, and yet you're still in business. OK, so what they did was they've created this separatism in the country. They've used the forces of the law and the gerrymandering to perpetuate themselves into tens, decades of service. This guy, Chuck Grassley, I think he was the great grandfather of George Washington.
Starting point is 01:03:24 OK, and the guy's going to run for reelection at age 105. And so so the only way you can go after these people is to try to take out a few of them. And so, you know, John is going to be up against it. You know, I sat with John and his wife during the Christmas season to let him know what they're going to do to him. Because, you know, they did it to me. I get it. They're going to two-dimensionalize him. They're going to caricature him. He wrote a great book about his life, by the way. I'd recommend it to anybody that wants to get to know his personal story. But they'll find things inside of his life and they'll demonize him. And she'll do everything she can to destroy him because she likes power.
Starting point is 01:04:08 Now, the best news about Elizabeth Warren is she can't get any legislation passed. OK, but the worst news about her is that she has power over the administrative state because of the deal she cut with Joe Biden to drop out of the race prior to the South Carolina primary in the year 2020. So we have to help John Deaton. He's running up against an incumbent in a very liberal state. But let me tell you something, Charlie Baker, who was a two-term successful centrist Republican, okay, crushed it in that state. And if we can, if John Deaton can frame himself like that, a Charlie Baker-like candidate can be this regressive. Elizabeth Warren is not a progressive. She is a regressive. If she was a progressive, she would be pro-Bitcoin because Bitcoin is for the unbanked. Bitcoin is a libertarian movement for people that don't want to be stuck in the current
Starting point is 01:05:07 structure that we're all living in. OK, and so that's the definition of progressivism. But she's not a progressive. She's a regressive. OK, and I always tease Mike Novogratz. She just hates the fact you got so rich off of Ethereum. She wants to do everything she can, OK, to hurt the system. OK, and that's how these people think, by the way. Gary Gensler does not want your Bitcoin to go to 150,000. He's pissed about it. OK, and he tried to do everything he could to stop it. But the Kraken has been unleashed.
Starting point is 01:05:38 And there's a water wall of money coming into this asset class. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. David, I saw you had had your hand up earlier. If you'd like to ring in. No, I'm good. I was just going to ask Anthony about his thoughts on Ether and ETF, but he answered that earlier. Yeah, they're going to try to stop that.
Starting point is 01:06:01 They've been embarrassed. I mean, I would love to see that ETF approved in May, but I do expect that ETF will get approved by the end of the year. But there will be a lot of administrative shenanigans prior to that. And remember, it's an election year and they probably only have this year in power at the Gensler level. And so I predict he'll try to kick that can down the road. I'm a tail. Yeah, it's got everybody. One thing that I just haven't heard talked about today that I was curious to get everybody's perspective on is just how extreme the potential supply shock of Bitcoin could be. We saw a post come out yesterday. I don't know how long it was up, but Cash App basically ran out of Bitcoin
Starting point is 01:06:53 to sell to its customers. I think that might have got community noted. I'm not sure, but I think that might have gotten community noted. Yeah. I just think with the ETFs, I'm not sure either, but with the ETFs we've fully discussed extreme scarcity with price shock and supply shock affecting how much attention that that would garner. So I was just curious about your thoughts on that, Scott, and other people on the panel, because it seems like we're entering a new territory where there's a possibility that many of these providers who've integrated Bitcoin as a financial service may not even have it to sell. Can I chime in for a sec? Yeah, please.
Starting point is 01:07:52 I'm in for a sec. So, I mean, that's a possibility. But the more likely possibility is that the price will go up and eventually intersect with some level of supply. And so, you know, I can tell you that when this started first week of January, I think people on this call know this because it's been reasonably well publicized. We were the first money in to the BlackRock ETF trust, which then applied for the ETF. Okay, so it started out as a trust, and then they got the approval, and they were already building an order book.
Starting point is 01:08:32 Okay, and so it looked like you were going to have a billion dollars to buy at $55,000. Okay, but I think they all did a measured job, believe it or not, even though it's ramped up quickly, of walking up the price to where we are today. But I mean, there'll be supply above 100,000. There'll be supply at 150,000. I don't see a supply shock because just know the nature of human beings. And I know there's a lot of people that own Bitcoin that don't understand the asset. Michael Saylor's not selling the asset. Hopefully, you're not selling your Bitcoin. I'm not going to be selling mine. But there's a lot of people
Starting point is 01:09:17 that don't understand the asset. And so once the prices go into the six-figure category, I think you get the supply without the supply shock. Yeah, I think that that's sort of what I was picking up on, Anthony, is that a lot of these funds and investors may have a target around that six-figure mark. And at that time, there could be quite a bit of a supply coming in. But there's that gap between 70 and 100. That could be the thing that actually the scarcity driver to drive the market. So yeah, just yes, yes, I hear you. But I mean, you know, listen, it'll move quickly. Look, look how quickly this has moved, guys. Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, you just you mentioned Saylor. Obviously, he's never selling his Bitcoin. He's looking to buy more. What do you make of his strategy
Starting point is 01:10:10 that he's proposing another 600 million convertible note to buy more Bitcoin here? Is that is that for me, Scott? Yeah, it's always. I mean, I gotcha. I love it because he's using Buffett's model. He's figured out that he can arbitrage his stock into cash, which gives him the engine to buy Bitcoin. And he turned his company into a quote-unquote Bitcoin development company. OK, and if you look at the performance of MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin, since the ETF took off, I mean, he's outperforming. So I love it. What I think I'm most amazed by is the caillons of Saylor, OK, and the conviction of Saylor, OK, because he's already killed it,
Starting point is 01:11:12 okay? He could go to the beach right now, he could liquidate his positions, and he's got four or five billion dollars, but he's not doing that because he's an evangelist, okay? And he understands that this is the base layer for the new financial system. This is the base layer for the new architects. And basically, I don't want to speak for Saylor, but I'm going to speak for myself. We've had central banks drunk driving for at least 35, 40 years. Okay. And so Satoshi Nakamoto said, wow, we got some severe drunk driving of the central banking community we can't trust these people but what we can trust is a decentralized mechanism and maybe it's time to take the money away from the central authorities take the keys away from the car and hand it to a decentralized group that will make it harder money and safer money, which would probably
Starting point is 01:12:07 end a lot of the global conflict. It would probably end a lot of the overpromising of politicians. OK, you know, and I'll speak again for the United States. And I am a baby boomer. I just turned 60. The baby boomers have screwed up the United States. OK, the political class of baby boomers have screwed up the United States. The political class of baby boomers have racked up a gigantic deficit. And whether you're Donald Trump or you're Joe Biden, let's just go over the math. George Washington to George W. Bush, $7 trillion. Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, $26 trillion. Okay. I mean, it's not sustainable. So what Mr. Saylor is doing is he's showing people the way to a new financial architecture. And like we had an operating system come out of Microsoft in the mid 80s, the Bitcoin system could be the operating layer for this new financial architecture, which leads to more accountability, more governmental honesty. And I think it's upon us.
Starting point is 01:13:13 And by the way, if he's wrong, OK, he's he's it's a store of value like gold. So it goes from a trillion to 14 trillion if he's wrong. But if he's right and then the consequences are way more exponential. Yeah, I think it's just incredible to watch. Regardless of what happens, I think it could be viewed, you said the Warren Buffett model, I think it could be viewed in that lens if this thing continues to rise the way that it has. I mean, it could be viewed as one of the greatest investors of a lifetime by simply investing in a single asset, which I find mind-blowing. Bruce, what do you think? I just saw you at it, joined.
Starting point is 01:13:55 Yeah, I agree. He's not selling. I mean, you know, it's hard to go into cash when cash, you know, as Saylor has said, it's a melting ice cube, and it is, you know, where else do we put it? You know, that's what we have to do. You know, we've had this reckless printing of money and actions have consequences. You know, these tyrants around the world, especially in the United States, the United States has led the world in this reckless printing of money to, you know, bomb people all over the world. And it just never has worked in human history. And it never will. You know, if it could work, then Zimbabwe would be the richest country. I have a trillion dollar Zimbabwe note I carry around in my wallet. You know, this is going to cause people to go back to the very basics and ask the simple
Starting point is 01:14:37 question that I ask a lot of people, which is what is money? You know, and I was in finance for 20 years before I ever even asked that question. And I know billionaires who've never asked that question. And I know a lot of people who cannot answer that question. But it's a very, very simple thing. And these properties of what makes money, money have been around a long time before Bitcoin. And these are laws. It's just like supply and demand. It's just like laws of agriculture and all kinds of other things in the way that our world works. You can't just simply put people in fancy offices who make something out of thin air and call it money and make it money. You just can't. It's never worked and it never will work. Now we have something better. And throughout human history, humans have always gravitated towards something that is more scarce and more accepted and meets the properties that, you know, Bitcoin does quite well at meeting. And whether that's gold or whatever assets have been money in the history and the U.S.
Starting point is 01:15:34 dollar at one point, you know, U.S. dollar was much more sound money prior to 1971 when it went off the gold standard. So, you know, actions have consequences. And this is what we're seeing right now. It's playing out exactly as we might expect. And I think it's exciting. I'm here for it. Peter?
Starting point is 01:15:55 Yeah, I mean, one thing I'll say, I've said it before. I've said it for seven years. I've looked at the chart of Bitcoin. I've looked at charts throughout the years. I've looked at hundreds and thousands of charts. There's only one other chart that I can find that reminds me of Bitcoin chart, chart of interest rates in Germany in the 1920s. And so what can we extrapolate from that, Peter, for everyone who's listening? Parabolic, parabolic, parabolic. Good for Bitcoin, bad for Germans in the 1920s.
Starting point is 01:16:28 Anthony, I saw you lifted your mic before while Bruce was speaking. Did you have a final thought there on what he was talking about? Well, I didn't want to interrupt him, but I think he's so right. It's so clear you can't make something out of nothing. It fails every time. And I also have a trillion dollar – you can't even cross town with a trillion dollar note in Zimbabwe. I mean it's just ridiculous. But listen, we made a decision.
Starting point is 01:16:58 We were funding deficit spending in the Vietnam War. We couldn't sustain where we were. And so in August of 1971, the Nixon economic advisors went to Camp David. They came back from Camp David. And on the 15th of August 1971, Nixon unclipped us from the gold standard. The gold was $35 an ounce. It's over $2,000 an ounce today. It's a 98.5% devaluation in the money. Okay,
Starting point is 01:17:37 so $1.50 in 1971 is worth $100 today. Think of the magnitude of that. If you don't have assets, if you're a middle-class person or a lower middle-class person, and you're using your time and labor to earn money for your family, you have to think about the frustration of that. The money comes in, $1,000 last year is worth $920 of purchasing power today. They can't catch up. They're very, very upset. And they will seek out Bernie Sanders. They will seek out AOC and they will seek out Donald Trump because they represent an anger basis and a wrecking ball for for what the country is. And if we don't remake the country and make it fairer, OK, it's going to be a dangerous time. You know, you don't want your Bitcoin going to a million dollars a coin and your fellow neighbors suffering and starving. You don't want that. OK, we want a fairer aspirational society. I think we can all agree with that, guys. I think we covered everything
Starting point is 01:18:37 today. Obviously, Bitcoin hit that all time high, broke just above sixty nine thousand, at least on Coinbase, now trading around $65,300. I think nobody would be particularly surprised that there was going to be extreme volatility when we hit an all-time high that we've been watching now for a couple of years. I want to thank all the guests. I want to remind you guys that when we bring guests up, that's a pretty rousing endorsement from us that they're experts and worth listening to. So just encourage you to follow all the guests on stage because they obviously contribute with tweets as much as they do on spaces. So it was a huge day. I mean, I know people contend to downplay it, but anyone who was here through the bear market and quote unquote survived everything that just happened, well,
Starting point is 01:19:22 it's nice to be back here. I think there's a level of indication and I think we'll hope that we can continue to push on. I'm really curious where price will be when we launched tomorrow at 10, 15 AM Eastern standard time. Thank you guys all for joining. This is absolutely great space. We will see you guys tomorrow. Thanks. Bye.

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