The Wolf Of All Streets - Breaking Down The Crypto Bear Market | Lucas Outumuro, IntoTheBlock

Episode Date: December 7, 2022

Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, is joining me to talk about the bear markets and to share his thoughts about where is the bottom of the current market and when we will reach it. Lucas Outumuro: https://twitter.com/LucasOutumuro ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen  GET UP TO A $8,000 BONUS IN USDT AND TRADE ALL SPOT PAIRS ON BITGET FOR ZERO FEES! ►► https://thewolfofallstreets.info/bitget   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Today's stream will continue the hunt for any indication that the bottom is in for the crypto market. Now, as you know, because you've heard me say it over and over again, I believe the bottom would have been in if not for the FTX Black Swan. And I'm somewhat encouraged by the current price, even though that did happen, that we're almost back up to the bottom of the range that we were in before that breakdown. But there are a lot of ways to determine whether the bottom is likely in by looking at on-chain analysis and data. I've got Lucas out tomorrow today from Into the Block, long been my partner in the newsletter, helping to give you guys amazing on-chain analysis on a very regular basis there. Well, now we're going to talk about what bear markets of the past have looked like, what that looked like on-chain, how that can give us clues as to whether the bottom

in and what to look forward to in the future based on those same indicators. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. I got contact lenses yesterday. Until like five months ago, I had fighter pilot vision. Then I got some progressive glasses when things far away started to seem blurry. And those effectively just destroyed my eyes permanently. And now I'm like a blind person. I got contact lenses yesterday. Absolutely new world. The guy told me I was the fastest.

I'm not trying to brag. But the fastest in history at learning to put contacts into my eyes. And honestly, I got really cocky about it. Took like three minutes for them to teach me. And then I woke up this morning and it took me about 25 minutes to get my contact lenses in. Because every time I tried, they just stuck to my finger. They were upside down. Nobody tells you these things, man.

So now that you've learned all about my contact lens saga, which is obviously what you came here for, we're going to talk a little bit about Bitcoin, crypto and markets in general. Now we keep pressing on the same question. Is the bottom in? Is the bottom in? Is the bottom in? First of all, I want to remind you, Ben really mad. Right. I think we can all agree right now and I'll bring on Lucas in a minute to discuss, but I think we can all agree now that the bottom is a hell of a lot closer than the eventual top. Right. So timing, whether the bottom is 12, 14, 10, 16, 18, 20, any other even odd or prime number, doesn't really matter if you still have the belief that Bitcoin is going to 100, 250, 500, a million, or according to Fidelity recently, potentially a billion dollars, which seems like they're literally smoking crack sprinkled with meth and eating mushrooms at the same time. A billion dollar Bitcoin. Can you imagine what the world would look like if a Bitcoin was a billion dollars? How much would a loaf of bread cost? Three billion dollars? Don't know. That's bad math. No, it would be a lot less. But still, a billion-dollar Bitcoin to me is absolutely absurd.

But if you want to hear a bit of the case, then you should probably listen to my podcast yesterday with the legend Plan B. If you guys didn't listen to that, then your life is bad. And if you want your life to be good, you'll listen to that podcast. But Plan B took a very long hiatus, took a beating for the stock to flow model breaking, although he'll make the argument in this podcast that it did not necessarily break. And he took a long break and he came back and I was basically the first person that I got to speak to him. So if you're wondering what plan B has been up to and what his thoughts

are on the market right now, then go listen to that. As Ian says here, Ian Dunn, his life is bad. It's very easy though. In this case, you can just go ahead and make your life good. Anywho, I'm bringing on the guest right now. I have got Lucas from Into the Block. What's up, man? How are you? Hey, Scott. Doing well here. Thanks for having me. I think the first time we met was actually, it was Coindesk or something, but on a very similar live stream, probably looking through the same cameras. Yeah, that was a long time ago and things were very different. And that obviously, as I alluded to before, led to you guys helping me a ton with the newsletter, which has been amazing. One of the most popular features that we've had over the last couple of years is your guys' somewhat regular on-chain analysis there.

And so obviously on-chain is not really my core competency, which is why I have people like you to come on and explain what it actually means to me. We generally do this on Wednesdays. So I guess we'll just start with the main question and you can share what your thoughts are. Do you think the bottom is in and what can we learn from past bear markets to give us an indication of whether that is the case and when that might cease to be the case? For sure. Disclaimer, of course, not financial advice. I'm just looking at data on what has happened in the past.

It might be a pattern that will repeat itself. There's potential reasons to believe that's the case but crypto is increasingly complex and more integrated into the economy so with that out of the way I can run through how previous bear markets have worked in the past uh and you know get a sense of where we are at least um and then i don't want to say a conclusive yes or no because frankly it depends um but um if you can share my screen i can start um comparing some metrics across previous bear markets awesome um so right now we're at a point uh for the first time in since March 2020, where only 46%, so under half of the holders of Bitcoin are making money on their positions. And if we look at previous bear

markets, it reached even like further negative numbers. So it went from 80 in 2011 if we can count that then 2015 also dropped below that 50 got to about 66 percent uh losing money then 2018 55 or so and right now uh we're there just 50 and we're losing money right after the ftX crash. So we're seeing that consolidate slightly higher, which keeps on with the trend here, and also with a trend of slightly higher, well, higher lows and also smaller percentage corrections. So here was like 90%, 85%. I think we've done about 70% or 75%

as far this year. This bear market, I guess. So that's one thing to look at. So how much profitability, how many addresses are left that are holding profitably and what they are doing. For Bitcoin in particular.

I think that holding activity is more valuable with it trying to be a store of value than other assets that have more practical use cases where demand such as, you know, fees or network activity can be slightly more relevant. But Bitcoin being mostly a store value where you just hold and keep long-term right now, the digital gold equivalent, if you will, I think the profitability and holding patterns have to do a lot more.

So if we- Let me ask you really quick before you move on. So why specifically does it matter what percentage of people holding Bitcoin are in profit? I mean, listen, we know that a lot of retail bought Bitcoin at significantly higher numbers than now. Does that mean that there's going to be sales pressure as it rises because they'll be looking to lose less or break even? Or does it basically give us an indication that the bottom is closer because if they've held this long, well, they're going to keep hold.

Yeah, it's a bit of both. So it's got to do with like momentum getting overextended in a way. So when everyone is profiting, you know, when we're hitting all time highs after all time highs, then there is essentially like sellers. And we look at this on chain data. The holders, longterm holders begin selling when everyone is profiting and they begin accumulating when most people are starting to lose money and that that's like the counter cyclical point of view that you know a lot of the long-term

holders take uh whereas retail unfortunately tends to follow the momentum and buy it by the top and sell the bottom unfortunately hopefully you know with time more more people learn but but yeah that that seems to be the case and it was just like opening uh Bloomberg right now and it has like the top headlines like crypto and retail traders exit as panic comes. It's like, well, it seems like we're still repeating the same mistakes as an industry. But yeah, that's how profitability, aggregate profitability of Bitcoin holders at you know what, that's why it's it's potentially an important metric

to look at when timing bottoms. Understood. All right. What's next? Awesome. So the next I wanted to look at when timing bottoms understood all right what's next awesome so the next i wanted to look at is the give me one second here so the unspent transactions output age i guess it's a somewhat technical um term but what really means is how long these addresses have been holding Bitcoin for in terms of percentage of the whole Bitcoin circulating supply. So what we see is, one, the pattern towards more and more long-term addresses. So you can see that in bear markets the the dominating uh holders are the long-term holders and then towards full markets so like in 2017 we see that the red addresses so the newer ones um are increasing percentage-wise so we saw that in 2013 in 2017 and of course we did so as well in

2021 particularly in the first half actually less so later and that's a sense a sign that it's getting the market's getting overheated hence why we chose the the red it's a lot of short-term holders dominating the the flow and then it starts increasing the long-term holders start accumulating again as the bear market comes into place. So we can see this literally started in 2022 that the share went from about 50% from I'm calling it from the green to up. So the ones that have been holding over a year has increased significantly and not just that but something that also aligns with previous moments of a capitulation is that the the short-term addresses then also spike very rapidly once we see a capitulation event.

So we saw that in November or December 2018. You see the spike in the red and orange addresses went from like a very low value, almost tripled within a couple of weeks. And we see similar pattern, perhaps less violent. But we see that the number of addresses there went from like sub 1% to the ones with one month, around 10% between all those red or orange categories. So that to me is a signal also that there are opportunistic long-term, well, I guess opportunistic traders

that are starting to buy now that they will probably, a lot of them become longer term holders. But it's a positive sign that there's still new interest entering the space, even as the masses exit the crowd, exit the market. So you have a lot of indicators right now showing obviously that long-term holders are accumulating

and continuing to hold and that we actually are seeing a bit at least of retail turning around and stopping their selling and starting to buy. Yeah, and it doesn't have to be retail. It can be like new entrants of some sort, right? It could be new institutions, buy. Yeah, and it doesn't have to be retail. It can be... New entrants of some sort, right? It can be new institutions, right? Yeah, perfect. Yeah, actually, it's probably institutions just because of the share that it has.

So as I mentioned, I went from like... I think I said the wrong numbers initially, but I went from like 4% to 10% within a couple of weeks. And that to me is, in terms of volume, it's a high percentage of circulating supply. So it's likely institutions entering in now that the space is a bit decimated. Yeah, a little.

Yeah, to say the least. And I guess not to beat on a dead horse, but we also see it here. I think it's more cleanly to see the long term holders. So we call it hodlers as a lot of the industry. And we track here the balance. So the aggregate amount of Bitcoin that addresses have been holding over a year have. And we see this pattern time and again, you know, accumulation. And then when it reaches the bull market phase of new all time highs. So like in the late 2013 was the first, I guess, then that balance of hodlers starts declining. And then we see bear market prices drop, you know, 70 80% plus, and then that balance starts increasing significantly.

So hodlers hold more and more. And after hitting new all-time highs, like we did here in 2017, the balance starts declining, declining, declining. And then we see this literally the same pattern accumulation in the bear market and then selling in the past all-time highs so here we see it actually uh slightly before I guess also because people notice this patterns and they tend to accelerate a bit further and now the amount of addresses after this capitulation has increased significantly. Yeah. So it's accelerated.

So that also tells me that the people are sticking around. The big guns continue to buy. And also exit exchanges and hold more on-chain. Are these indicators that the bottom is likely in or is it an indicator that we're starting to see the signs that a bottom could be in? Does any of this tell us whether, hey, we should all start expecting a bull market to begin again? I don't think so.

Or does it give us an indication that, hey, it's time to start dollar cost averaging in, but also you might still be buying at $10,000, $12,000, $14,000? Yeah, exactly. I think it's more the latter. And again, not financial advice, but typically bottoms don't occur within just a couple of weeks, especially less so with all so much uncertainty and no one to backstop the global economy like the Fed did in March 2020. I think that's the only exception where that happened. So I think it's more of a matter of people entering the space more aggressively, accumulating more at lower prices.

And I think that sets the base for a bottom to be reached relatively soon, but doesn't mean like tomorrow. Got it. Perfect. That makes sense. Yeah. What else are you looking at? So I do also have a few off-chain indicators that that are probably relevant for your audience let me actually go straight to it um so for perpetual swaps and also futures because um these have grown like to become like the most traded um i guess instruments for bitcoin and so they do have a lot of relevant information and the funding rate is typically a good mean reversion metric

let me do this real quick i'm just gonna extend it so it looks more neat. Okay. There we go. And I'm just going to put Binance in since it's the most liquid. Okay, nice. So for those that don't trade perpetuals, they essentially are like a futures contract, so a derivative that's tied to the current price.

And the way that they tie it to the current price is through the funding rate. So essentially, when the funding rate is positive, people that are going long pay this fee to the people that are going short. And that creates the pressure for the prices to converge. And so we see in times where the market is, you know, overheated in either direction, that the funding rate can go very high or very low. So March 2020, it went very negative to negative 0.08. This is every eight hours. So annualized, it's, I think, like 50%. Last time I calculated that.

So it's a, you you know a relatively high fee um and same applies to the other side so like January 2021 uh right after the we hit 20 000 we went like straight to 50 000 if I remember correctly or 40. yeah it got very overheated and then we crashed and also in like more recently november 2021 uh it it was significantly high uh i'm struggling to get the value yeah 0.07 so also about 50 annualized and it's it's becoming more liquid so it's we're seeing less extremes over time. And so it's a slightly more efficient market. And look at this like abrupt downturn in the week of the FTX to the lowest all-time high

funding rate on Binance. That to me is a signal that too many people were short aggressively like betting on crypto's capitulation. And to a certain extent, it's a counter indicator because it signals like way too many people are short despite the cost. It means that a squeeze is somewhat inevitable.

It's easy to execute, right? Yeah. Yeah. And hence why the day after, like we climbed back like 20 percent and, you know, since that it's corrected a bit, but that's a sign to me that we potentially might be near the bottom after such panic and such aggressive shorting. That's it for Bitcoin. I do also, if we have time. Oh yeah, we got time. I want to see what you got for Ethereum. Yes.

So for Ethereum, which is frankly a lot more practical, and there's a lot of applications for Ethereum nowadays that users can take advantage of and probably even more in the future. For Ethereum, hence, I look at at least personally a bit more of the network indicators to see demand. Instead of like for the asset like just bitcoin this is a lot more of a infrastructure that has an asset that goes hand in hand with the demand for its infrastructure so with that said, fees are a great indicator to look at that network demand. And so in 2018 and 2017, we saw fees increase very aggressively during the bull market.

As you know, ICOs were starting to crowd the network and we saw fees hit about three million a day, five million a day. That at the time was high. I think a few days it's already started surpassing Bitcoin, but it's nothing compared to what we saw in the latest bull market. And so the fees tend to correct in bear markets about 80, 90 well in each terms since frankly historically a lot of the activity has been speculative it's starting to become uh less speculative and it's less correlated to each price as that's how i estimate that and a good sign that we can start to see of the bottom being behind us is fees actually increasing even while

each price is a lot lower so a perfect example of this was you know in the spring of 2020 just as d5 was starting to get some more traction um the amount of fees were already hitting new all-time highs despite if uh let me see if I can find the price. How much of that is a result? I know you're looking back. How much of that is a result of single spikes from like a huge NFT launch or a huge platform coming online or something like that? Because we've obviously seen gas fees on the entire Ethereum network go to thousands per transaction because of a single NFT launch. Of course these are these are weekly average values so it does smooth it to certain extent and frankly in 2020 there weren't like nfts were like a very small fraction

of uh activity so it's more d5 related and like the first early days of uh meb as well so we we see that spike uh and then i guess yeah more in like 2021 and early 22 a lot of it did have to do with nfts um but uh averaging it on a weekly basis sort of smooths it out so that it's not just you know one outlier driving the whole activity and in you know in the future bull markets, who knows, it might not even be NFTs or DeFi could be another category driving a lot of the fees. Frankly, I don't care what sector it is. As long as there's demand for the platform to be used, there should be a sign of the bottom being behind us. Seems like you're pretty confident that we're bottoming from what you're seeing here, which is the consensus among almost everyone I bring on the show. It's funny that retail is so, I think, aggressively bearish still with all the bad news.

But anyone who's looking at the data seems to be pretty convinced that we're close to the bottom. I tend to agree. Yeah.'ve seen like um um what are these calls when when people vote like on twitter uh chris berninski did one over like did we reach the bottom and like i don't know 60 put no we haven't bought them yet i was looking at the comments after of your tweet and like the first one to come up is no, we haven't bottomed yet. So it's like always. Yeah. Yeah. It tends to be a good counter signal and also sentiment is very bearish. So it tends to be something good to trade against. Yeah, we have a great comment here, which says from Drucified,

we're still missing that one final capitulation wick where everyone is convinced it's over. Maybe. Maybe. I don't disagree. I do think if we go to 10, 12, something like that, that we don't stay there long at all. That would be my prediction. Doesn't mean that would happen, but that would be my prediction. Also, because these patterns have happened time and again, and so we see the same thing with holding distribution. People start to anticipate these things more. So it's like, oh, another bear market, 80% down, boom, I'm all in. So I think that could drive a shorter bottom if and when we reach that. So it could be just a wick or I don't know.

Unless like what I'm leaning towards, frankly, like putting all of these data points together is that unless there's a macro, you know, catastrophe, we're probably very close to the bottom. And if there is a macro catastrophe, then it will be probably just a wick and we're probably very close to the bottom. And if there is a macro catastrophe, then it will be probably just a wick and we're gone because then the Fed will intervene. And I think no one doubts that even like the bond market is starting to begin to bet on that switching next year. Yeah, I mean, a lot of people want to see something break in the market so that the Fed can pivot as sort of ironic and, you know, just seems to not make much sense.

But people want to see something break so that the Fed has to react and they can print money and then their Bitcoin can go up 17x again like it did in 2020, right? Yeah, yeah. It's the whole bad news is good news, I guess, trade that people have been pushing forward. It's frankly like a bit uncomfortable to see that people anticipate bad news with such eagerness. But, you know, so that's sort of how financial markets have worked. And if they failed out the markets in the past, people understandably will have the expectation that they will continue doing it in the future. I love this comment. Gregory Russell says, my wife asked me if I was still holding my crypto.

First time she asked all year. The bottom is in, folks. I love that comment because I've tweeted this many times and it resonates with people. My favorite top indicator for myself and for other people is when you show somebody how well your portfolio is doing. Like you take your portfolio tracker, you're like, oh my gosh, look at how great the market is. That every time I've showed my wife, that has been the dead, dead top. So if she's asking, I guess, if you still hold it, she literally, I mean, how would she not know? First of all, like,

wouldn't she imagine that you had told her, Greg, that maybe like you sold everything and I don't know, bought a bike or something? I don't know how much it's even worth at this point, but it's really one of my favorite top and bottom indicators is your wife. Yeah, I think friends and relatives that are not into crypto asking you about crypto, like on either side of the spectrum so right now a lot of friends have asked me like hey is solana dead because of ftx or is you know bitcoin going to zero after this as some as it may sound to me being in the space that's a good time where like panic where emotions get like excessive in either direction and people start asking you about that especially with no direct connection to crypto that that's that's a good counter signal. And unfortunately, sometimes we don't take them.

Yeah, it looks like you have another tab there, maybe USDC or something. I can't, it's hard for me to read it. But yeah, there you go. So what are you seeing in the stablecoin market? Yeah, so a lot of adoption, as you might imagine, the week of the FTX demise, I guess, we saw all-time highs in active addresses for USDC. So that's a lot of activity swapping from crypto into stablecoins, especially this Ethereum network, so ETH and ETH tokens. That being said, that has dropped its active addresses. And I think more importantly, the trend for stablecoins is very positive.

So we see it like in the number of transactions. And all of these transactions accrue value back to Ethereum. So because they each have a token burn so um from me uh I see like stable coins sort of the the Trojan horse for crypto it's certainly begun to be the case in the developing world I'm from originally from Venezuela I'm surprised that hot dog stands now accept crypto through like finance pay or like other solutions it is and and frankly it's a lot better than holding the the currency so it's it's oftentimes it's been at a premium so i i expect this to continue to increase during the bear market and people won't

really see that as a positive because as i mentioned like oh they're just holding stable coins they're not holding the volatile asset they're not holding my bags that i want to go up but but it does actually accrue value back to the underlying networks since you know it's a lot more activity and because of ethereum that drives the burn and makes it more deflationary so i expect that to continue uh with increasing volumes uh yeah the next few, if people are holding your bags, that's selling pressure, right? If people are in stablecoins, that means that there's dry powder on the sidelines looking to reenter. So I think that it's kind of the flip of that narrative as well, even though people often

say that. Like, nobody's going to buy the bags if they don't have stablecoins to do it with. I agree. I agree. And right now there's a lot of dry powder, certainly. Let me see. I think we added this recently. Guys, by the way, you can all access this by going into the block and signing up just for the record.

But go ahead. I appreciate it. Yeah. No, the market cap has declined a bit since the summer but you know there's still 43 billion uh in usdc that could enter the rest of crypto market uh this is like a sign that a little bit of money exited crypto i think with usdt it has declined a bit further um but you know it compared to where we were at the beginning of last bear mark of last bull market it's you know a lot more like an order of magnitude from 730 million to 43 billion that to me is the great like the closest sign of uh crypto adoption right now is stablecoins. DeFi, frankly, is like not even a close...

Actually, NFTs is a relatively close second and DeFi still starting to get more traction, a broader audience. But it's made it harder to penetrate due to its complexity. I'm hoping to see more signs of adoption there. But yeah, I guess that's like my overarching thesis that we see more adoption in use cases built on top of Ethereum and other smart contract platforms.

And that drives demand in the future. And that demand creates the floor for us uh holders like investors are already betting in the bottom as we saw with the bitcoin holding address indicators and also with a few of the ethereum ones you can see a lot of accumulation by long-term players that that is established but now we need a bit of more organic demand into these assets in order to also make the ecosystem more mature and not just a casino, but have more impactful real-world progress. Where is that going to come from? Where is that going to come from at this point? I mean,

is that a retail thing or is it more institutional adoption? I mean, I love the way you talk about stable coins because I always make the point here that that's been the killer app for crypto. Nobody wants to hear that like a fiat replica is the killer app for crypto. But to your point, in Venezuela, you don't want to be spending the local currency. You want to be spending dollars, but you can't get dollars. You can't get crypto dollars so to speak yeah and I think that's the clearest horse to bet on being like to continue uh bringing adoption into crypto um but frankly I I do think defy especially as you know people people start realizing again that exchanges hold your crypto and they can do fraud with it after FTX. I wrote up a piece of why I think that DeFi is a solution to the FTX saga.

And it may take time just because it's like a lot of steps for a new entrant to use DeFi um but I think it's something that will be increasingly more appealing to not just people that are in crypto but elsewhere um going back to like the developing world example a lot of people held stable coins and they put them in FTX now now they're gone. So now that they see the value of holding it non-custodially and your ledger or your wallet and potentially earning some yield on top of that through DeFi, or if you want, if you're a trader, you can trade options or Uniswap, whatever. There's just a lot of opportunities there. And I think from what i'm seeing in like early stage projects getting fundraising i believe we're going to be at a much more uh robust place in d5

by the next bull market yeah makers telemark says d5 is a solution to fraud do tell please what's funny is i think people sort of confuse i'm not not saying he's confused, but there is fraud in DeFi. If we're considering hacks and exploits and those that rug pulls, obviously that's one form of fraud. But the kind that was pulled off by SPF and in centralized exchanges and the collapses that we've seen in Voyager, Celsius, all of those actually are not issues that we have in DeFi where collateral is posted, it's liquidated in an orderly manner. So I think when DeFi is humming along and working as intended on a reliable platform, that solves a lot of issues. Yes, I'll step in here. It's like a daring question. There's been plenty of scams in defy but frankly they've been a color across them less like the newer platforms that are just taking advantage of the hypes so like the rock pools but the established defy so you know i guess have a the uniswap that's the blue chips have worked as intended they don't hold the cryptos of their depositors. You can see on

chain, literally, you can track the addresses, see what they're doing with your assets, if anything at all. And it works as intended. And you can, of course, most people don't audit code, but you can theoretically do it and make sure that it works as intended. I think we're still early in the sense that, you know, there's no like AI tool that can automatically verify that the DeFi is, quote unquote, not evil and won't steal your money, which is why understandably people trust their blue chips more. But in the future, I think like AI and crypto will probably integrate a bit more and there will be a way to verify quickly that you don't have, that you actually have custody of your funds, that they're being used as intended. If there are risks, what are the risks?

Well, there always are risks, but it's a lot more clear and transparent and frankly, better, a lot better than, you know, centralized finance exchanges and even more than TradFi, which are even more obscure. Anytime we can take human error out of the process is going to be a win long term once we actually solve it. I have to ask you this. So all these indicators now showing a potential bottom we have this sort of idea and a picture that you've painted is there an oh shit indicator something that could break in any of those where you would be like okay i'm wrong we're going way down you know outside of like a big news event is there anything on chain that could say, give you a hint that, oh, I was wrong. It's it's time to panic. Yeah.

Yeah. Let me share my screen again. One second. But essentially, long term holders giving up before, like as we continue to crash, that would be a signal to me that, oh, that the loop of, you know, hodlers selling at all time highs and perpetuating that cycle of the store of value. If for some reason we see hodlers and balances decline like sharply as prices decline and for some reason like they lose faith in bitcoin holding value long term well if we see that that in my mind would be a signal that a lot of people are losing faith in the store value thesis and right now it's like the main thing

going on for bitcoin so that would be a sign to me that, oh, maybe we have some bigger troubles to solve. We're not seeing it. And as I mentioned, like in every bear cycle, they continue to accumulate. So even like March 2020, it held sideways. It didn't decrease. So even the panic, it had started increasing right afterwards. So I don't see it happening anytime soon. But I don't know if for some reason, the very unlikely chance that someone gets to print

an extra 20 million Bitcoin, that will probably happen. I don't see that as a likely and will certainly be a very big black swan scenario. But yeah, that would, you know, negate a lot of my thesis of why the bottom could be near. Perfect. So Lucas, after this conversation, where can everybody follow you and how can they sign up to actually use these indicators themselves? Yeah, yeah. Make sure to follow IntoTheBlock on Twitter. Myself, Lucas Otumuro. My name is a bit hard to spell, so I'll spell it out for my handle for anyone. And feel free to sign up.

We have a seven-day free trial. Every now and then, we run a few discounts as well we might do something for uh the holidays um alpha leak uh and yeah of course keep keep updated with what we publish in our medium in our twitter uh we run into a lot of these analysis uh and we want to make this as accessible to everyone while also having a business model behind it. So we're like the lowest cost analytics platform, only $10 a month, $100 a year. We cover a thousand plus crypto assets, 5000 NFT collections and more. So, yeah, make sure to sign up.

Appreciate it, Scott, for the time here. Of course, you guys all know that I use it because you see it in the newsletter all the time. Really an incredibly useful tool and you guys have made it so pretty intuitive on using it and understanding what the data is showing you, which is extremely, extremely useful. So guys, tomorrow, I've got Dan Roberts from Decrypt,

Dean Skirka from Wonderfy, and Alex Tapscott, who's one of my favorite guests that we have relatively consistently, who articulates the bull case for crypto better than most. That's going to be our roundtable. We're figuring out exactly what the topic will be. But you guys do not want to miss that tomorrow morning at 9.30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Guys, that's all I've got for you today. Go watch that Plan B. Go watch that Plan B podcast for sure. Lucas, thank you once again. Always a pleasure to have you. Everyone, see you tomorrow.

Peace. Let's go.