The Wolf Of All Streets - BTC Bull Trap Or Bottom? | Crypto Town Hall

Starting point is 00:00:00 I just tune into the spaces to read the titles these days, because I think the titles are like so interesting. That's why I tune in. Very compelling. Maybe we should change it. I'm just looking at your YouTube right now. Don't be fooled by this crypto bounce. Does that mean we think this is a bull trap? I think that if Bitcoin doesn't get over the 58, 59,000, it's a bull trap. Yes. We were there for a few minutes. Yeah, but you have to close the day. Come on, Scott. You know that, sir. Yeah, I'm going to try to change the title.

Starting point is 00:00:35 The problem is every time I go to change the title, I have to talk and then I leave like a half edited title. It's problematic. But yeah, Bitcoin rises as Fed chair warns of prolonged high rates i mean i i haven't seen uh powell today we do have some macro people obviously on stage but is is that what he's saying that what people are implying it was yesterday it was yesterday today as well yeah and he said the same thing that he always says. Sorry. Yeah, that's what I assumed. Eladio, listen, you're tracking. Let's, I guess we can start with Pal and the Fed here and then get deeper into Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:01:15 But did Pal, to your knowledge, say anything that surprised you? Anything different here? I mean, Ran, like to your point, the guy says the same thing every time and we have conversations month in, month out about what it means, but he's literally just saying the same thing. Well, yesterday, hello, everybody. Yesterday in his testimony in Congress, before a headline came out that said that high rates for a long period of time could hurt the economy, which would, to me, imply that he's getting a little closer to maybe lowering rates. And then we wake up to this headline here, and it says that rates are going to be there for longer,

Starting point is 00:01:55 which is really what he's been saying most of the time, with the exception of the pivot point in December, where he turned into an Uber dove. And then as the inflationary, you know, the inflation started to take back up in the first three months of the year, he sort of hinted at backtracking, but he's been saying the same thing for a long time. But I do think we are getting closer to a rate cut. And I don't know if the bottom line is if we get above 60,000 and can hold that in anticipation of that rate cut, I doubt seriously that as we get closer to that rate cut, that Bitcoin will go back down into the 40,000s. If it holds here and it could go sideways and get closer to September and surpass 60,000 and stay above 60,000, I think we may be looking at a bottom, but it's too early to tell at this point.

Starting point is 00:02:55 I look at Bitcoin in correlation, as you well know, to the traditional assets and how they react. And I still stick to the idea that the Bitcoin's a few weeks before the rest of the risk in the market in terms of deciding if it's priced to the liquidity it thinks it has been coming now for a long time, but has it? The only thing we have is that they've reduced or at least tapered their QT, but we're still waiting for that first rate cut. But the liquidity is coming. It's just not coming from the Fed. Exactly. That's exactly. We got the liquidity from all the spending that was put into the system. So that has helped sustain things also, in my opinion. And the fiscal side.

Starting point is 00:03:43 Exactly. So that's probably what has also, in my opinion. And the fiscal side. Exactly, exactly. So that's probably what has allowed us to go sideways here. And sure, I know Bitcoin to me just moves more than, say, the ASDAQ 100. And its stochastics are just, you know, it takes off like a rocket ship once it makes up what direction it's going to go. But, you know, we did have a move that was big, predicated on the idea that we would have many rate cuts. And I think that was mostly responsible for the move that we saw from the 20,000s to where we went, you know, in March, which I still believe was the peak of Bitcoin. If I'm incorrect, I think it was mid-March. Yeah, it was mid-March.

Starting point is 00:04:32 I would call that a peak, maybe not the peak. Right. Dave, I know there's a lot you would love to unpack there. Yeah. Well, yeah, I mean i wrote a a slightly longer tweet this morning i'll probably write an article about it uh but i wanted to get something out this morning i mean look there's two facts right well fact number one in the short run bitcoin reacts very quickly and first to specific cash infusions liquidity moves etc. Lots of people trade it on leverage. It's open 24-7. We know

Starting point is 00:05:07 that. Okay, cool. There's another fact that Bitcoin's core thesis is against fiat currency debasement, full stop. That's the thesis. That's why people are accumulating it. The market is still pricing it at a dramatically low probability of it becoming or replacing digital gold. And so it's really all a question about acceptance. So you have to ask yourself a question. It's really straightforward. If we get into a recession, we know that generally the first rate cut is a signal for the stock market to drop, not because the rate cut makes the market drop, but because the market rallied on the anticipation of the rate cut and then says, okay, wait a minute, why the hell are they cutting rates? Well, the answer is because the real economy is suffering and stocks are levered to the real economy because companies

Starting point is 00:05:52 make better, more money when the real economy is doing well. Well, there's another fact that everybody would, would pretty any macro economists who disputes this, I'd be surprised to hear it, which is that we've gotten to the point where the effective leverage of rate cuts and liquidity into the real economy is much less than it was five years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago, it's getting progressively worse. I mean, the term people use is pushing on a string. So ask yourself the question, if we go into an actual recessionary period, because of all the excesses that have been well documented and they start putting pushing liquidity and what's going to react stronger bitcoin which is literally that that is its thesis or the stock market which is really trying to anticipate what the real economy would do and i

Starting point is 00:06:36 think the answer is that delinking happens in the next recession whenever that happens now what does that mean for markets well nothing not in the short run, but in the long run, it will absolutely matter. Anyone have specific thoughts on that, Matt? Either. We have two Matthews again.

Starting point is 00:06:55 We need a third Matthew. I'll go Matthew Dixon this time first. What do you think? Yeah, hi. I just look from a technical perspective. I think we've been in, since the FTX low, we've been pretty much in a parallel channel. There's not many touch points, but I think there's enough for it to be valid. And clearly, we're talking about moving sideways right now, sideways slightly down, pretty much bull flag as far as I'm concerned. This is just a correction and I think we've hit the bottom of the parallel channel. As I say, I started to draw out from the FTX low around that time. We just hit the bottom

Starting point is 00:07:31 of the channel yesterday or the day before, whatever it was, 53,000. And I think we're probably going to head to the upside. We've got quite a clear ABC correction, which is just really nice and tidy. And I think there's no reason why we shouldn't expect to see upside we'll see what the cpi comes out at um i think it's tomorrow isn't it cpi comes out supposed to be i think it's dropping from 3.4 to 3.3 to 3.1 that's the that's the forecast i want to ask you a question about CPI. So Bitcoin is completely disconnected from the NASDAQ, and effectively the NASDAQ is following the macro trend. So you've got Bitcoin disconnected from macro.

Starting point is 00:08:14 Then you've got if the CPI comes in cooler than expected, you probably get trad fire pumping. You probably get the Dixie drops likely. But Bitcoin has got lost its correlation. In fact, the three months correlation is it's the lowest that it's been since June 23 was the last time that the correlation was this low. And actually, it wasn't even this low. So question the question, the question then

Starting point is 00:08:39 becomes like, if we have a good CPI tomorrow, then like what happens to Bitcoin? It looks to me like Bitcoin is not going to respond. I don't necessarily agree. Yes, short term correlations are dropped out over and over again. But longer term, the correlation is reasonably well intact. I've tracked it right from the beginning of Bitcoin. And those correlations seem to be reasonably reasonably good. I mean mean i think that if we see soft cpi tomorrow

Starting point is 00:09:07 i don't doubt that um dixie will drop and i think that bitcoin will rise and as i say i think we're at the bottom of the channel on bitcoin so i don't see any reason why we wouldn't um why we wouldn't push higher and i think we could see that you talk about correlations i mean i like correlations um inter-asset but also within the crypto asset classes. And you see some great potential turning points on a number of assets like Solana, like Ethereum. And they're all reasonably well correlated, of course. But even as you say, short term, it may have dropped out briefly, but I think we'll be back in step. And we saw, I know maybe what you're talking about.

Starting point is 00:09:43 We did see with that banking crisis we saw crypto actually rose when um spx fell which was another breaking correlation but i'm just saying overall longer term the correlation seemed to hold that's my view yeah listen for people who want to make the argument that they're not correlated i'm a champion of that theory you should actually although you don't like to see Bitcoin drop in price, cheer when it decorrelates, even if that means it's not going up at the same time, right? Yeah, that's a great thing. I mean, we want as many uncorrelated assets as possible to hold within a well-diversified portfolio.

Starting point is 00:10:19 And as crypto matures as an institutional asset, that's what you'd want. If you want people to hold it within their portfolios as an uncorrelated asset, that's what you'd want. If you want people to hold it within their portfolios as an uncorrelated asset, that's exactly what you want. So I agree 100%. Yeah. And that is the pitch when we have our ETF issuers up here and we ask them, what's the pitch when they go into meetings with RIAs, et cetera, it seems to be the one that resonates the most is whether you like Bitcoin or not, whether you understand it or not, it helps your portfolio by being an idiosyncratic, uncorrelated asset, right? So it helps your Sharpe ratio, done and done. And I think that that's

Starting point is 00:10:54 worth honing in on for them really is the point here. So if it goes down when everything goes up, so be it. It'll also have moments where it goes up and everything goes down, which is what we're looking for, right? I mean everything goes down, which is what we're looking for. Right. I mean, that's the proof I think we're looking for. Go ahead, Eladio. Well, I'm going to push back a little bit on the lack of correlation between the Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq 100 has been hijacked by semiconductors in the last three months. In fact, even the traditional FANG stocks, the only stock really of the fang seven that's just gone haywire recently is uh as tesla because it was the only remaining uh mag seven stock that was still down over 50 something percent uh just two or three weeks ago before it had this massive move but the the correlation that i see semis have for me years before I ever watched uh uh ever watched uh uh crypto semis were

Starting point is 00:11:49 always like crypto has been acting in the last few years with the market semi always led they always they always rallied first before the rest of the of the of the nasdaq tech uh companies and and they would break down now that has has not happened and what has happened is whenever there's any weakness in any of the mag 7x uh nvidia because it's a semiconductor semis have just taken the you know have have rallied so i see the correlation right now between semis and crypto as almost spot on at this point. And the other mag six, you know, meta, Apple, they've already had their moves, in my opinion, and they're just walking in place because they're one of the few companies that do and have relied on great earnings because since there's such monopolies, they're the last to run out of runway when it comes to earnings. But I see the correlations and correlations aren't perfect. Again, when you say something's a canary in the coal mine, it means that it leads something before something else happens. It tells you it's sort of like reading the tea leaves before something else happens. And I just think we're a little off cycle because we've been sitting here waiting for months and months and months and months. We went from five rate cuts to four rate

Starting point is 00:13:16 cuts to two, and now just one. And the fiscal spending, which has been massive for not just this administration, but before then with the previous administration, in my opinion, has created blanks out of the Fed's moves. The Fed's rate hikes were half as effective as they would have been in tapering inflation and and hurting employment so sorry i was having some some mic trouble there go ahead dave well i mean the problem with with a lot of look i people know or those who know me know that i spent over a decade of my life running quantitative strategies. So I understand correlation is relevant, but you have to understand the why sometimes. I mean, correlation is not causation. And when things delink, they delink for a reason.

Starting point is 00:14:21 So we had the easiest way to explain this is we used to have a strategy it was a multi-factor pairs model anyone who cares i can talk about it offline but when the signal got really strong i.e it looked like the most important time to buy or sell that was almost always when it was a false signal reason because there's some other thing causing the correlations to break down. So a lot of you just said some things that are interesting about STEMI, reading, et cetera. The story, the AI story is what's leading, right? And so, you know, that's what went on. And, you know, the story of what's going on with, you know, there's things with Tesla,

Starting point is 00:15:03 there's things with NVIDIA's things with Nvidia, et cetera. We all kind of understand it. The meta story, however, is the fiscal story. Will the government's continued deficit spending, which is highly likely to accelerate, and by the way, will accelerate in Europe now and in the UK, will that continue to pump liquidity

Starting point is 00:15:21 into the main economy and will the main economy do well? And will stocks do well as a result? And the answer to that is highly likely to be no, or at least no in the short run. Whereas the same thing would cause Bitcoin to rally because it literally feeds Bitcoin's narrative. And that's kind of the point that I'm trying to make, that as we get into the next quarter and toward the fall, I think that that narrative will grip the markets. And that will be the explanation for what typically happens in the Bitcoin cycle, which is a rally in the fall, and that period of time after

Starting point is 00:15:53 the habit. Yeah, we're gonna be in that could have fallen hidden, hit our heads or gone outside not paid any attention to the market and woken up in November and been like, oh, we repeated the cycle. We all expected this boring summer, people still freaking out about it, but it was always the most likely, I think, scenario. But that leads us, I guess, to really the topic of the day. There's not much news, but Bitcoin bull trap a bottom. Matthew sort of alluded to the fact that he thinks the bottom is likely in. Eladio sort of laid out how he thinks it could possibly be in,

Starting point is 00:16:31 but the confirmation we need, Rand said we need to close above 58, 59. My personal take is that I'm not convinced yet. What we're looking at right now, obviously, is Bitcoin battling the 200 MA on the daily, which is a line that a lot of bots and traders alike both look at currently below it. So it's resistance. And today's move up sort of stopped at the 200 MA. It poked slightly above. And then obviously the range, which for me, the bottom's around 60,700 or so. I want to be back in that before I'm convinced. But my favorite signal for those who have followed me for any amount of time is when RSI gets oversold on the daily looking for bullish divergence, which is a lower low on price

Starting point is 00:17:14 and a higher low on RSI. And we have that. And we had it oversold twice. And we have that bullish divergence usually means that we are bottoming whether it's the bottom exactly or not but that the process is here but uh fullest i mean what do you think do you think that uh we have the bottom end what are you looking for to confirm that it would be uh or do you think we have more pain to come hi scott thanks for having me on um yeah it's an interesting question uh the chart doesn't look fantastic today just based on how the daily is shaping up. You mentioned that for you, the range low is just above 60K there. For me, the range low is actually around 59.6. I think there was a lot of support there kind of going back into april march and if you look at the chart today we basically retested that uh last night um utc at least and now we're rejecting from that level it's also it was a pretty big imbalance uh above us kind of between like 58.6 going up to around 60.4

Starting point is 00:18:19 and now we're after filling about half of that imbalance we're kind of going down again. So it's just I mean, when you read a textbook and you're talking about bearish retests, this is a pretty it's a pretty textbook example. It doesn't look fantastic. I'm not a massive fan of the fact that we're that we're rejecting from that level and pushing back down. Yeah, I don't know. It's for me, I really liked how Bitcoin was shaping up, let's say, a few days ago. I really liked the buyback after we dipped down to the 53Ks. But this looks a little bit more ominous today. I think it's too early to say, as Rand touched, you know, wait for the daily to close, wait for the high timeframes to close a bit more. And, of course, CPI tomorrow is a massive wild card. So too early to say.

Starting point is 00:19:11 But for me, I'm cautious. I'm probably more cautious today than I have been at any point in the last week or so. Right. But when I woke up, I was less cautious than I am right now, which shows you how this happens. We're above 59,000, potentially above the $200,000. Now it's kind of a potentially ugly candle. To your point, you've got to wait for the close and for confirmation. Of course.

Starting point is 00:19:33 And I will say something else. I don't know how many of our listeners are familiar with auction market theory, which is basically just, you know, it's a method of analyzing the charts that focuses on value. On like where are buyers and sellers agreeing that price is valued fairly? Where is it overpriced? Where is it underpriced? And if you pull a volume profile from like, let's say, February to now and kind of determine where the volume has been in BTC for this entire range, you'll see that we're currently losing the value area and have been closing candles outside the value area for basically the last week, which is, according to the theory anyway, which suggests the price is now seeking new value. You know, market speculators

Starting point is 00:20:17 have kind of agreed now that Bitcoin was overpriced and maybe are going to send it lower to find new value at a different level. So, I mean, there are various factors in my own technical analysis that are kind of pointing towards maybe lower prices into the remainder of the summer. So, I'm exercising caution here. I think you touched on it as well, just saying, you know, we were always going to be expecting this kind of low-volume, low volatility summer with not much action and maybe a rally in the fall. So I don't think this should come as a surprise to anyone.

Starting point is 00:20:50 I see a lot of doom and gloom on the timeline. People saying, you know, it's over, pack it up, boys. But I mean, we always knew that this was a high likelihood. Let's say when Bitcoin started ranging back at the start of the summer, we always knew, you know, when guys are out in the Hamptons chilling out that there isn't a huge amount of capital being injected into the charts. So I would just advise anyone yet, don't go jumping to any conclusions yet. Wait until September. Wait until October. I think we'll get a more clear picture then. Yeah, I mean, pick the trough here, 74k down to that low in the 53s, know from the march highs to just now it's still about 27

Starting point is 00:21:26 correction which is par for the course if not uneventful and shallow for past bull markets and now is the biggest one in this bull market we were having the highest around 23 24 before so it's i mean if you're looking at past markets kind of nothing but peter i'm glad we got you on stage man i saw you in the audience and sending those invites because we need your take here. Yeah, yeah, thanks. I mean, as I've said before, I buy the long-term fiat destruction narrative. I mean, that's my underlying driver. Bitcoin is the reason I'm committed to Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:22:01 But I'm also a chartist. I'm a trader. On a very short-term basis, Bitcoin closes here at universal time. Where it is right now, I go home short the futures. I'll continue to point out that Bitcoin, despite all the hype,

Starting point is 00:22:28 is below the 2021 highs in relationship to gold and is below the 2021 highs on an inflation adjusted basis, despite the hype, despite the halving, despite the ETFs. That for me is not, if I'm a pure technician and looking at that in any other market grains, let's say, that doesn't excite me. You know, the chart I'm paying most attention to is the gold Bitcoin chart, you know, which currently is at about 24 point X. That's number of ounces of gold required to buy one Bitcoin. I think that can go back under 19 to one. That's 20% lower than we are right now. And now that can come through lower Bitcoin prices. It can also come through higher gold prices.

Starting point is 00:23:15 But just taking it in terms of Bitcoin flat price, I think the market is defensive. I don't think the market acts super healthy here. And quite frankly, I've kind of always said here in this forum that, you know, if we can't defend the 60 level, we go to 48. So that's kind of my target area. But again, you know, my focus is gold, Bitcoin, as kind of longer term dual store of value stories. And that's where I think we go. I think the Bitcoin gold ratio goes back under 19 to 1, and we're 24 plus right now.

Starting point is 00:23:54 So that's 20% lower. Dave, what was the bet with Mike McGlone that we had on Macro Monday? Was it gold performance in 2024 versus bitcoin performance was that the bet starting i don't remember yeah i i can't remember what the exact date it was a i think it's through march of 25 yeah i think i think that makes sense if maybe you made the bet in march i mean what peter's saying here is that that you and I could actually be on the wrong side of that because I obviously took your side, although I'm not in the back.

Starting point is 00:24:28 I think we will be on the wrong side of it until the fall. And then all that. So then we'll see. It's a backdated bet. It's not path dependent. It's where we are in March, not where we are now. If you remember the beginning part of the baseball season, there a few teams that uh looked like they were going to blow you know blow everything away in the first couple of weeks and they don't look so good now and it's it's a

Starting point is 00:24:54 it's a marathon not a sprint scott of course peter the bet was just say unless it wasn't clear in march i think of 24 so this year dave and and Mike McGlone from Bloomberg bet which would outperform for the next year Bitcoin or gold. So when you look at that ratio dropping 20% in favor of gold, do you think that that's a three month away thing, a six month away thing? And where does it stand next march uh no i i think we could we could see gold outperform bitcoin out through the end of 2024 um but you know i've got to add when i look at the long-term charts and i look at a bitcoin gold ratio sub 19 that occurs somewhere between now and the end of the first quarter of 2025,

Starting point is 00:25:47 that makes me more bullish long term on Bitcoin. So but in the meanwhile, defensive. That makes perfect sense. I mean, do you still Peter, where do you? Where's your thinking on the four year cycle and the fact that Bitcoin kind of should be where it is right now. I mean, when you look at bull market retracements, obviously for Bitcoin, 27% is not a huge deal, right? Yeah, I mean, it's like one crazy day. Yeah. Yeah. I think it just becomes more difficult, I guess, to draw conclusions. Jonathan, obviously, you're the lead crypto analyst at StockTwitch.

Starting point is 00:26:25 You're looking at this stuff all day. I mean, where do you stand on, you know, sort of this bull trap or bottom and what's likely coming for Bitcoin? Like I said on Monday, by the way, hearing the great Peter Brandt say 48K, which is what I've been looking at, too. That's the best part of my day and probably will be the rest of the day. Can you guys change that to 78, both of you, so that everybody can be happy?

Starting point is 00:26:52 I mean, yeah, that's, it's a, it's a, it's a mix of what users are saying on the StockTwits platform too. But I mean, when you, it going above 200 day ma uh last night was great but then night hit and it's just been down from there from a point and figure perspective on a 500 three-point reversal chart there's a really fantastic uh like one of the most sought after bullish setups um the uh the uh cat bullish catapult but it's also a perfectly positioned for one of the great short setups so this is this is it from a pure price action perspective it's kind of like a park and bark hurry up and wait and i tell you just from my opinion no matter which way

Starting point is 00:27:40 it decides to break the opposite side of the the market is going to be absolutely crushed. I mean, I'm looking forward. You mean that the crowd will be wrong? How dare you? No, no, no. It never happened. Never? Never. The posts of like coin glasses, liquidation charts are going to be trending within the next couple of weeks, probably, because it's going to be an epic, epic flush out of one side here.

Starting point is 00:28:13 I'm excited about it from an observer and a trader and an analyst. But as a long term bull, I'm also like, oh, God. Oh, God. OK, I don't like that in the short term. OK, yeah, I just I don't like that in the short term. Okay. Yeah, I just have to push back a bit. I mean, I'd love to take the other side of that bet because there's so much less leverage in the system now. Right?

Starting point is 00:28:35 You know, so the liquidation charts won't be epic until we have excesses on one side or the other or both. So, you know, it's very difficult. Where do we stand in open interest then, Dave? have excesses on one side or the other, or both. Where do we stand in open interest then, Dave? I thought it flushed, but it's still relatively high, at least in previous markets. We're sort of at the lows since March, right? Open interest is hard because there's so much structural open interest because of the ETFs and hedging. It's not a great indicator. The better indicator is the supply demand funding and what actually happens. So when we've had big moves, $2,000 moves,

Starting point is 00:29:14 the amount of liquidations have been dramatically lower than $2,000 moves six months ago. And that kind of matters. That shows you at the margin what kind of leverage there is, because it's really the amount of leverage, not the amount of open interest. Right. Gladio, then Jonathan. Gladio, go ahead. All right. Peter is spot on, in my opinion. I believe we're trying to base here before the fall and and we need to stay above and i think the movements intraday matter sometimes more than that what to me looked like pre-positioning right before the market opens or pre-positioning right before the market closes

Starting point is 00:30:18 uh i think that that looking at at crypto during the the time frame that we have the U.S. markets open is important. But it's obvious that everything's predicated upon the Fed and liquidity moves here for the next move up or down. And if, God forbid, the Fed decides they're not going to do the pre-token election rate cut, I think that'll be a disappointment for not just the stock market, but certainly for also crypto. Because again, we've been moving up for a long time until March. And that was all again predicated on the idea that the next move would be to add more liquidity around the world by the ECB, by the Fed. And that's the next move, the next move. And it may be for the wrong reasons. It may be because the economy is slowing faster than we think because the employment numbers are so fudged. You know, the job creation numbers haven't really been that

Starting point is 00:31:21 strong. We've lost full-time jobs. We've gained more part-time low-paying jobs. And then the revisions on the BLS payroll numbers are ridiculous. I mean, we just saw the Labor Department reduce those numbers substantially for the prior two months. So the other thing is, are we looking at data that really is inaccurate or marginalized, perhaps maybe because we are in an election year? I don't know. Yeah, that all makes a ton of sense. Jonathan, you had your hand up, I think. Yeah, just kind of a question to Dave about the open interest. Are you, when you're talking about open interest, are you looking at, you know, I don't know, just what's on regularly, like the COT, what you have at the, on the COT report? Are you looking at all those other

Starting point is 00:32:16 DeFi, Bybit, all the other kind of exchanges that have the synthetic, sorry, you know what I'm talking about, I'm babbling here Yeah, I mean, the COT is the one that has the absolute structural the structural open interest from hedging out ETF purchases, and I've talked about this at length at other times because of the idiotic, well, not really idiotic, but kind of malevolent SEC decision for ETF issuers to go to cash creation redemption, because Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs can't touch Bitcoin spot,

Starting point is 00:33:00 they have to use futures if they want to hedge. And so then you put that into a more structural roll the hedge kind of thing. That's what's on the COT side. On the other side, you see it. The problem with open interest is if somebody has two to one leverage and some huge size and somebody else has a hundred to 1 leverage in half that size, that's much more likely to see liquidation, significantly more liquidation, than if you had double the amount of total leverage,

Starting point is 00:33:38 but the average was at, I don't know, 2 or 3 to 1 or 5 to 1. Because the liquidations happen when the move is large enough to cause a flush. And the open interest doesn't tell you that. Now, there might be great specifics on that. I don't know where they are. Analysts out there, there's a lot of people listening. If there's somebody who knows where the, how to understand where the bands of what would be liquidated would be and how that tracks now versus other times in the past. That would be important information, but I have not seen that.

Starting point is 00:34:10 Does that answer your questions, Jonathan? It does, yeah. Thank you, Dave. Yep. Perfect. Felicity, guys, I mean, this is one of those days there's not that much to talk about. Yeah, pretty boring market.

Starting point is 00:34:22 I think we can go ahead and wrap and hope for bigger topics to discuss tomorrow. Can I ask one question, Scott? Yeah. As I saw reported this morning before the rejection that the Germans were down to 22% of their original holding. Yeah, I think they sent more this morning or something. Well, in a low-volume market, that could also be fairly explanatory. So is anyone tracking that to know?

Starting point is 00:34:52 When is that particular sale projected to be done? I think it depends on how advanced transfer is. Yeah, I think it's hard to project from what I've seen, but that we know that they have sold or moved now the bulk. And they were already down and sold more than 50%. And I think they just moved maybe another 30% or something. Yeah, I don't know. I was asking the question.

Starting point is 00:35:14 It felt like last night's action with people jumping the gun thinking that that was over. I have no idea, though. Yeah, they're definitely under a billion now. So the majority, the vast majority of it is gone. I have no idea though. liquidity, or I say the sell pressure that's come into Bitcoin. And I just want to appreciate the anti fragility of this ecosystem right now to absorb that much money, and still be in a pretty, pretty strong position. I know that it's certainly, yeah, had some sell pressure, but still amazing to see. Yeah, I totally agree. And you know, it's at a time when obviously, there's low volume, low interest, and the sort of summer doldrums that we discussed. So I think that that's a great point. Well taken. All right, everybody, thank you. And we will be back tomorrow, same time, 1015 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Thank you. Have a great day. Thanks, guys.

The Wolf Of All Streets - BTC Bull Trap Or Bottom? | Crypto Town Hall

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