The Wolf Of All Streets - BTC Down, ALTS Outperform! | Crypto Town Hall W/@THORChain

Episode Date: June 25, 2024

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I had to just go in and change the title. It said Bitcoin down, alts outperform, alt season next. The audacity of us to use the words alt season at this moment, because apparently Bitcoin dominance has dropped from like 55% to 54%. Joe, Joe, help me, man. I'm having a day. Anyone who watched my YouTube show this morning knows that my ADHD is kicking in just absolute full. I was fixated on the pronunciation of fidelity, no matter how many times my guests tried to talk about serious things. I just grilled them on the pronunciation of Joe Biden and fidelity. So Joe, alt-outperforming, is that what's happening here?

Yeah, I mean, aren't you buying that falling knife on Brett and Mog coin, Scott? I don't even know what that is. Yeah, I think it's a different approach this time. And in a weird way, it kind of feels like before the 2008 recession, it was like Detroit was already in their own recession and then like the rest of the economy dumped on them. It was really bad for Detroit. I feel like that's like the altcoin market. It was already so shitty and in the dumps and now it just feels like things are piling

on but it's just unfortunate that when you see these bounces it's just the same kind of meme coins are kind of coming back and so i'm just not feeling like we're out of this little bit larger range with bitcoin right now or the rest of the alts and you know we're still seeing you know at lunar crush it's like people apply to be on lunar crush and we're just seeing a lot of meme coins so a little kind of like insider info there of like what we see on the ground floor is just not a lot of stuff and a lot of the i think really good projects that might have more utility that are you know more vc backed like they're just waiting it out like they are not launching into this market right now and everyone that wants to launch is kind of on hold um are they not launching because of prices or are they not launching because of sentiment

towards tokens with utility that are backed by VCs or both? I think it's, I mean, I definitely think it's more sentiment. I think, you know, there's enough liquidity behind some of these things and excitement that they're going to move no matter what, right? I think the market's immediately going to forget that things are quote unquote VC backed or more utility based the second you know it's on a two to three hundred percent run and people are missing out uh prices beget more prices

all of a sudden the roles of people launching meme coins because they're quote-unquote fair which is the most absurd uh assessment by the way, that I have from this market. If you look at how meme coins are launched, it's worse than the VC coins that people are so upset about, but not that I'm defending them. But yeah, when one of these goes like 1000x on launch, that's going to change entirely, to your point. Exactly. So listen, I mean, I'm looking at the market right now i would say that i'm slightly encouraged at the moment that bitcoin's trading at 61 650 um obviously yesterday uh doom despair and death price went below 60 000 which for a lot of people i think was a line in the sand

but ended up seeing quite a big wick closing back, I believe above 60,000 on the daily, maybe below the range if you look at it, but it's closed about 60,250 and now trading up from there. I think a lot of people looking at charts are going to want to see price squarely back in the range at the daily close today. But right now at this moment, it looks like the same euphoria you see when Bitcoin's in the 70s is the equivalent or bipolar despair that you see in the low 60s

when we all know that this is exactly what Bitcoin does most summers and certainly every halving summer. I want to know, Matt, you guys are out on the road always, obviously, bitwise with the spot ETFs. We've seen some outflows in the last week. I think that's much ado about nothing. But do prices complicate your pitch at all at this point? Or is this something that a bunch of us are just talking about on Twitter spaces every day and And 61 looks pretty damn good, objectively. I love you guys. And I love Twitter spaces. But yeah, out in the financial advisor world,

no one cares. I mean, I tweeted about it this morning, last time this year, Bitcoin was at 30,000. So from any reasonably long term perspective, things are looking extraordinarily healthy. And no, there's no bear market in crypto in the minds of most financial advisors that we're talking about. And honestly, if I look at even the year-to-date or one-year return on large cap coins, they mostly make sense to me. Many of the better coins are up substantially. Some of the sort of zombie coins are are down substantially and you know i think it's a pretty healthy typical summer and no the the professional community is not less enthused about bitcoin today than they were you know a few weeks ago it's still up 100 over the last last year, which is pretty good. Is there something outside of price that could get them less enthusiastic, something fundamentally?

Because to me, all I see is tailwinds, right? A thawing regulatory environment, a thawing legislative environment, elections on the horizon, people believing cuts are coming. I mean, maybe I'm just like a uber bull or a perpetual bull, but it doesn't seem like there's much headwinds for the pitch here i think you're right i think the biggest headwind is just uncertainty right even something like the election uh chances are that the result of the election is good for crypto but there's a world where it's not and investors hate uncertainty so i think some some of the sort of pause in interest is just there's up. But the long term demand is there, the winds keep coming. The meetings are as robust as ever. And yeah, I'm feeling really bullish

about the end of the year. We just got to get, you know, to resolve some of the uncertainty that's out there. Yeah, that all makes a ton of sense. I just kind of giggle on the inside, because there's never been a time where we've ever invested in crypto or been a part of the space where there hasn't been massive uncertainty, arguably worse uncertainty than anything we're seeing now. I get it for institutional investors. It's just kind of funny that people, even in crypto, are freaking out so bad. And this is exactly what always happens, like I said, and we're actually heading towards more clarity, not less for the first time. That's exactly right.

We have a spot ETF, for God's sakes. Yeah, yeah, no, that is exactly right. I think some of the binary nature of like election outcomes is a little bit scary for people versus generalized uncertainty. But yeah, you know, this too shall pass. I mean, we'll be we'll be back feeling good and in bull markets by the fall, I think. And for now, we just get to get a lot of angst out.

Yeah, I'm looking at a chart right now of corrections that I had made in previous bull markets just for perspective, for anyone who is freaking out. Obviously, they become a bit shallower each cycle. I mean, in the 2017-18 cycle, we had corrections, 42%, 39%, 34%. There's more, 40. They're all over 40, except for the last one that was 27. In the last market, we were looking at 21, 17, 32. We had a 55, of course, in the middle of that market when we went from 65 to sub 30 and back to 69. In this bull market so far off of the lows under 16,000, our largest

drawdown we've had was 23.48%. And that's after we topped at 73 and dropped to 57. And this current correction down, we want to call it that from like the 72 area to yesterday is all of 18.84%. So our largest correction in an entire bull market going from 15,000 to 74,000 has been roughly 23.48%. I mean, I don't know how you can look at that and objectively not say this is a hell of a lot better than what we've seen in the past. Right. So I just think people should zoom out, take some perspective. And I don't know, maybe go get a hobby for the summer or something and come back, you know, when when when when things are a little better. Lucas, obviously, you're at Into the Block. You guys are looking at what's happening on chain.

Is there any sort of explanation you guys have? We've obviously heard the narrative of miners selling. We saw that some longer-term Bitcoin holders, some whales that hadn't moved coins, had potentially been selling a few weeks ago. But then we saw that on Bitfinex, at least those longs had been replaced as of like a week ago. I mean, what are you seeing here? Where do you think that the pressure is coming from to take us from a 72 to sub 60 in a matter of weeks? Yeah, you mentioned the main points. I think miners have been decreasing their holdings over the past month at the fastest rate in over a year

so it seems like the having is having an impact there in their margins as well and they've reduced their bitcoin holdings uh of course the german government has been uh selling though not at as large a pace even though they do have have bigger holdings. Where do they get those holdings? Just for clarity for people, why does the German government have significant holdings? Yeah, I believe it's through a piracy website that they were able to get the funds that they used to finance that piracy website. I forget the name. If someone knows it, feel free to to yeah yeah just generally that's what i thought i just wanted to clarify for the audience

yeah it's not like they bought down spot um and so the the other thing of course was like there's been a bit of selling pressure uh ongoing that people didn't really know where was the source some people are indicating now that maybe it was related to the announcement of Mt. Gox. They did do like a transaction moving funds a few months ago, I think three or four months ago. So people did kind of expect Mt. Gox to begin moving funds. So that could be like the last warning that we get for that. And I think that eases some of the pressure rather than that increases it. Because as Matt says, like markets hate uncertainty. And now that that's telegraphed, the market gets a better idea of when it's coming.

And so we see already like inflows from stable coins starting to increase. I just tweeted this a couple of minutes ago that USDC inflows into centralized exchanges hit a yearly high yesterday, which, you know, it's hard to know what they're doing in a centralized exchange. But for stable coins, there's very little use other than buying assets. You could argue like Coinbase does have a program to get five percent apy on usdc but given the volatility yesterday um seems to yeah quite nice most likely yes uh and so that's a promising first sign that buyers are stepping in um you know while some people capitulate in fear of the Mt. Gox outflows. But I would expect it to be less severe than some people are freaking out about.

Yeah, by the way, Bitcoin now currently trading at $62,000. And if you're looking at, you know, a weekly chart, that's just $1,000 below the weekly open. So it has retraced, you know, obviously it bottomed 58,004 yesterday, already back to about 62. I think a lot of people want to see it close at these levels. Peter, how are you looking at this from a chart perspective? Obviously, we didn't make a lower low.

We had the 56,500 low recently. So what are you looking at? Well, you know, as I mentioned last week, 65 doesn't hold. We test, you know, as I mentioned last week, 65 doesn't hold. We test, you know, 59 to 61. We've been there even though we go through it. I don't count that as much.

We're still holding this level. I think it's important for Bitcoin to hold this level. If we can't get a daily close sub 59, and I think we go to 38 to 40. That's a big jump. That's a big jump. That's a big jump. But for right now, I think the trend still remains up. I've done some buying in here. The 60 level to me is the place where I want to add leverage, not reduce leverage.

So for right now, I think the burden is on the bears to take us you know down to a close below 59 so i like the market in here i think this is where it has to hold i mean i'm looking at the chart and believe that we have this massive inverted continuation head and shoulders we're building the right shoulder now. We could go a little bit lower and still build our right shoulder now. So, you know, for me, this drop to 60 actually, if we hold here, makes me more bullish longer term than if we were to have not had this dip. So I like the market. Yeah, I agree. First of all, people, when you listen to someone who's giving their analysis and they tell you that they actually acted on it with their own money, it should make that analysis more

impactful. So credit to Peter for sharing that. But B, you're supposed to be bullish at support, not bearish at support. The market gets exceptionally fearful when you hit a key level of support every single time. That's why it's support. But this is where you have the best risk reward for taking a shot here, right? Because you can add to a position and you can have a relatively tighter stop, which means your loss will be

marginally smaller. And it's where things are supposed to bounce. Yeah, I mean, everybody got excited when we went over 70. several times in this forum i talked about the fact that i didn't consider it a new high relative to the two looked at it on an inflation adjusted basis or he looked at it relative to gold we did not make a new high and so i just looked at the market here in the last month or so as just getting resistance at the old high and you know worthy of a sell-off so you know that's where we are and so for me it's time to kind of man up and and take a stake and say hey i want to be a buyer here because if this market holds this 60 level you know what's 60 now it's 58 to 62 range.

But as long as we hold here and we firm up here, actually that I think is much more constructive, again, compared to if we had not had this dip. Makes perfect sense. Vinny, how are you feeling? Obviously, you've shared sort of your analysis where you think the market's going over the last few weeks and months does the reaction here kind of below 60 uh sway anything for you or is this still chop how are you viewing i'll tell you how i'm trading it

so i shorted at 64 down to about 59 200 and there. And, yeah, it was a good short. I think that the market, you know, remains bullish above the 58K level. I think 57 is, like, the critical level. If we lose 57, it's going to dump. So, you know, the bounce of 58,200 or 300 yesterday was actually a really good sign. And momentum's building up. So I think we go back to retest. As someone trading this, I'm sitting with maybe some put options

just below 60 just in case, but I'm not trading it up right now. I'm happy just to see how the consolidation goes. I kind of agree with Peter on this. If it does consolidate to these levels and goes up, it's a lot better outlook because at least we know that there's just so much buy support below 60 that I don't think it's going to go there again. But I would say that the options expiry on Friday is coming up. So I expect a bunch of vol this week between now and Friday. And then if it holds above 60 by Friday, i think it's it's good for a big run up um but you know you know between today tomorrow friday um you know thursday friday i think it's uh it's high vol so it depends on how

you're trading it if you're a long-term buyer it doesn't really make a difference but if you're trading this i think you want to just watch out for the vol over the next couple of days. I mean, yesterday you had a candle spread from, I'm looking, about 63.3 all the way down to 58.4. Yeah. It's a trading stream. Yeah. And the thing is, I would have covered it like 58 and change, but it happened so quickly. I was just busy with something.

And the next thing I looked, it bounced back up over 59. And that was just good enough to show that there's just a ton of support there. Look, I do think the overhang with Mt. Gox for next month and the German government selling is some concern. But the market knows about it. So the market is kind of figuring out what that means overall this week as it digests the news. The reality, it may or may not impact too much. But the longer we stay above 60, the better for upper momentum. But if we lose 60 and it's going to go down, it won't look good in my mind.

I mean, I'm looking. I'm trying to figure out how this matters. German government sells $24 million more Bitcoin. That's like less than some retail do. No, but they've got $3 billion to offload. Okay. So they're selling it slowly and responsibly. Yeah.

So the thing is, you have to remember, like, what disrupts markets is disorderly selling. Someone coming in just like, you know, fat-fringing a thousand BTC in the market, things like that, right? If it's a government and they're well-advised, whether it's Mt. Gox or German, and they're going to sell it in a very orderly fashion, they're going to say, look, we're going to sell this over the next 30 days, 45 days, 60 days, whatever it is, at a certain pace, the market starts to factor that in and pick up on it. And it looked like yesterday, just a lot of orderly selling. And then obviously they'll set a floor and say, look, we're not going to sell below 60 or whatever the number is.

And so, you know, if they're selling a little bit every single day, the market can absorb it. That makes a ton of sense. Anybody else have any particular thoughts on the market here? I mean, yesterday was a pretty exciting day. Go ahead, Matt. they were hinting at sell-offs especially in this moment solana i remember when this is like i guess a year ago they were they were talking about how there was going to be a big solana sell-off and then it ended up only impacting like two percent of the total you know market cap of solana and it's it ends up being a nothing burger at the end uh market knew about it, freaked out, eventually ended up stabilizing, and we kept on going forward. Also about the post-election, I think that there's some charts out there that

I remember reading about election cycles are usually good for the market, even if there is a change of hands, a change of party, usually by the time January rolls around, the market stabilizes and ends up going, you know, rebounding from the news anyway. But overall, election cycles are generally good for the market was my takeaway there. So that's the I think I looked it up yesterday. I think it's about 11, well, the year of the election. So that would be now, but going into the election, normal election year where the market's going to rally on the way people think it is. We're not getting a cut in September. I'm pretty convinced that that's not going to happen. And I think that the macro picture is deteriorating or at least not looking as good as the market's factoring it in to be.

I don't want to spend too much time on discussing all the details of where it is, but I would spend a lot of time on what's going on. And I just can't see inflation coming down. I just don't see us getting to the – they're calling for 2 percent. And I think the Fed's stringing everyone along. They're just being noncommittal. They don't want to commit to anything. Because the most important thing to remember is the moment the Fed signals a rate cut and makes a rate cut, they're saying that the hiking cycle is over. And I guarantee you they're not willing to say that right now.

And so they're just hoping the market just kind of like peters along, gets to September. Oh, sorry, guys, no rate cut. Maybe December or maybe later this year. We'll see. But in the election cycles, I don't see it happening. So I do think we're going to see some softening in the economy as a result. Vinny, I agree with you, but why

do you think there's going to be softening in the economy? I mean, they seem to be contradictory if the economy remains strong. The market's forward-looking. The market's looking forward six months, and the market's forecasting cuts. I'm not talking about the market. I'm talking about the economy. You said the macro picture is deteriorating. So I agree with you on the lack of a cut. I'm actually

in your camp. I think the economy is actually too strong. That's why. And I agree with you on the inflation picture, but that seems contradictory to saying the macro is deteriorating. Yeah. So the lag effects. We've just burned through excess savings recently, a few months ago. Debt levels are going high. Delinquencies are going up. Yeah, but that's an argument for a cut. We've just burned through excess savings recently, a few months ago. Debt levels are going high. Delinquencies are going up. Yeah, but that's an argument for a cut. Now you're making an argument for a cut.

Well, no. So this is where I think everyone – I mean, you can have different opinions on this. I think everyone gets it wrong – is that I don't think if the economy was deteriorating and inflation was high, the favor would still cut? If inflation is going to remain hot, that presupposes a strong economy. That's just how it works, right? Because if the delinquencies and demand are being destroyed because of high rate environment, an environment where capital is still not in ready supply and is expensive.

Sure. Sorry, sorry. I was just wrapping up real quick. I was just saying if demand is being destroyed because of an environment with high cost of capital, in that environment, you would expect inflation to fall, not rise. I think the opposite is true. I think demand is not being destroyed. The economy remains strong, and that presupposes that they can't cut. Yes. Okay. So let's go through what is different about this cycle and what's causing the inflation.

Right now, what's causing inflation is just high amounts of government debt where we're printing trillion dollars plus, more than defense spending to pay for that debt uh that is that is highly inflationary and it will continue yes exactly exactly so so and it will keep the economy relatively humming along obviously you see pockets of stress but it will keep the economy running above trend which is why we're showing three percent growth for q2 gdp but it's going to occur inflation is going to if inflation is going to accelerate i agree. Inflation is going to, if inflation is going to accelerate, I agree, but that's not,

it's not a macro softening just to work clear. That's not macro sovereign. That's my economy coming along. Do you, okay. So do you, would you say that if the, if inflation broke, uh,

4%, uh, that the fade probably should hike. They probably should. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. I was on set.

Right. But just so we agree on like 85 85 i just disagree with the macro softening i think the economy is still too strong and inflation will remain too strong for them to do anything with cut with this type of fiscal spending and by the way regardless of who gets elected as you know vinnie like whoever gets elected their first 100 days they try to push through some big legislative package whether it's tax cuts or some poor spending and that's more fiscal spending that puts gasoline on the fire for inflation so so let's just let's just let's just i think i think the the maybe the point of contention between the two of us might be this um do you think that the labor unemployment rate is going to go over four percent? No. I think it will.

No, before the election. Yeah, it's roughly there, but to be clear, before the election you're talking about, right? Yes, before the election, yeah. No, absolutely not. Okay, so this is where we probably disagree. So I think we're going to see unemployment spike. Yeah, it is over 4% already, but I don't see a spike you need it so you look historically for spikes in

unemployment they almost always have to come with some shock to the market some exogenous shock or catalyst there isn't a situation where unemployment just spikes i mean think of a 2008 type situation you hit a massive crisis yeah no no i'm not talking like i'm not talking like seven eight percent i'm saying it's gonna it's gonna start creeping up 4.1%, 4.4%, 4.5%. But that's not a spike. Creeping up to 4.6%. I don't know. It's historically low.

It's historically low. It's lower than 90% of the time in U.S. history. It's not baked into the forecast. That's the issue right now. No one's forecasting 4.5% unemployment by the end of the year. When employment rises, it usually spikes exceptionally fast. Correct, because it's coincident with some exogenous event, a housing crisis, a banking crisis.

It doesn't just randomly go up 5% or 2%. That's exceedingly rare. COVID, it spiked, those types of situations. Most of the time, it just kind of hums along in a range. But we haven't been getting close. We haven't gotten closer to 5% for a while since pre-COVID. So this is going, my point is it's going from 4 upwards. And whether it happens slowly or quickly, who knows?

Whether it goes 4.1, 4.5, 4.8, it's going to go up. People, I mean, you know, again again this is where we probably disagree i think employment goes up and inflation goes up at the same time okay uh pivoting off the macro joe given your position here what do you think it means for bitcoin you actually raised your hand when we were talking about the yeah the bitcoin market well first of all the german german news might be news that right that had not been fully processed. And it seems that there was some actual selling there. I completely disagree with the narrative about the Mt. Gox coins.

First of all, that has been a known known in the market since at least early 2023. In fact, there was a schedule published by the trustee back in January of 2023 that telegraphed July of this year for sales. So the notion that that just pulled the market down, I think, is wrong. And then you can't look at these markets separate, right? Because there's a lot of traders and funds that are trading all of these assets on a cross-asset basis. And look what happened in the NASDAQ for the last several days. You had a modest, in this environment, it's pretty big, actually, a 2.5% decline in the NASDAQ. You had NVIDIA drop 16%. And was the Mt. Gox trustee selling NVIDIA stock when it fell like 6% yesterday?

And to say that that's not going to have any effect on funds that have all these assets and are long, you know, these particular classes, I think that's just wrong. So some of the selling yesterday was due, I think, to TradFi having a drawdown in mega cap tech. And, you know, that's not a bad thing. It's just, to be honest about it, at the same time you have, you know, today, you know, then popping back up altogether across the assets with that correlation. So, you know, I think people have to drive some narrative home about why the market's declining. The reality is, I agree with what Peter said, right? You've had all of these asset classes, including the major indices, they've all been roughly within 1% of their all-time highs. You know, the NASDAQ poked its head above the all-time high on an inflation-adjusted basis. Same thing with the S&P. It was at its height,

at the top, it was 1% in real terms above its all-time high. So you've got a lot of consolidation right at the highs. They've been this way for months, which is typical. And I think you're due for a breakout. I agree with what Vinny is saying. I think government spending is going to increase. And that's obviously bullish asset classes. So for me, I don't see anything negative about this. I don't know why people are so... I think it's just bad expectations for the ETFs. They thought that the ETFs would result in trillions of dollars of capital flowing in in 6 months, which is just... It's not realistic, right? It takes time for financial advisors and people to get accustomed to these products and build them into model portfolios. So I'm really constructive here.

I don't understand the bear argument. I think it is. I think we wildly out performed expectations for the ETFs. Right. Matt, I mean, when we were on here talking about what would happen and endlessly conjecturing, there were people who said, hey, if we get five billion into these things in six months, it's going to be be amazing we're sitting at 50 billion plus right uh entire market cap of of these products i mean this was better than even the best expectations i had seen

yes yes it was better than all historical analogies and better than the i will make another point um guys is that when everyone's always looked back in time and said, hey, you know, we've been printing money forever and the debt's been going up. And that's true. The US government's been issuing a ton of debt. We're up to 36 trillion or something

around those numbers right now. But what is very distinctly different this time around, and I think Joe and I, we definitely agree on this point, is that right now we're paying, it's compound interest. We're paying interest on the debt, right? And it's growing every single, maybe 90 days by like a trillion dollars, but it's not the debt issuance that's an issue. It's actually the interest payments now. No, no, but Vinny, close the loop on that, okay? People look at these high debt rates. You've got, you've got effectively $6 trillion sitting in money markets held by a very wealthy boomer class in that interest that

the government's paying. That is fiscal stimulus. It's income. It's income for them. And what do they do? They go out and they spend, they buy the latest iPhone, they buy all the, you know, everything that they can. And that's why demand is not going to soften. That's exactly my point. That's what we we're agreeing on my point is it's very different when you're issuing a bond at at 0.5 percent you know income and interest versus paying out five percent interest on uh on new issues this is this is what screwed up so many investors including myself at the beginning of this when the rate hiking cycle began people did not do the work to realize that the American consumer had sufficiently protected itself from higher interest rates. They locked in fixed mortgages. They had a lot of low fixed debt. Same with

companies. So you didn't have a liquidation cycle. You didn't have a debt crisis other than, you know, small vulnerable players who were not being smart about the prospect of rate hikes. So now you have the government effectively in a high rate environment, subsidizing very wealthy people who have access to a lot of capital and can just sit in and park it and get 5%. Absolutely. That's exactly what's happening right now. I mean, you know, in some cases we've got cash that exceeds our mortgages and we're not paying off the mortgages. We're letting the mortgages sit with like, you know, two, 3% interest rates, and we're earning five and a half on our cash. Anyone who pays off their mortgage right now where the mortgage is below the interest rate is just an idiot.

There's no reason to do it at all except for the tax savings. In some cases, it depends on what your marginal tax rate is. For most people, it makes no sense at all. You just keep sitting cash, earn your interest, and pay off your mortgage that way. It makes a lot of sense. Really fascinating, fascinating conversation. I love it. DB, listen, you haven't had a chance to jump in at all.

We've talked about this cycle before. I'm assuming nothing here is alarming you at the moment. Yeah, no, nothing at all. Honestly, I'm kind of tired of discussing it because we i want and this is exactly what we said was going to happen six months ago two hundred dollars up or down now yeah it's it's exactly what we said was going to happen and if it keeps going down to 55 or even low 50s that wouldn't surprise me either this is exactly what we've been saying for the past couple quarters this is exactly what we've been saying for the past couple quarters.

This is exactly what happens every bowl cycle. And it's just, we got other stuff to talk about that's going on. I'm kind of getting a little exhausted of the BTC up or down. And still, I think we're not going to know a lot until closer to the election and it's probably it's going to be a topic on what is it thursday for the debates so that'll be good but other than that like you said up or down a couple thousand here there i'm not even watching anymore hey guys do we think crypto gets mentioned at the debate anyone have a have a have a 100 percent degree, 100 percent think it will be. Imagine that. Did you see that today? It was news that Biden was rehiring a very pro crypto X, I guess, X employee.

I don't know what the correct terminology is, but to try to take over crypto again, saying that it's a real pivot here. I think, I mean, I have to imagine that most people in this industry think it's too little, too late, but it certainly seems like the Biden administration is trying to mitigate the pain they've been feeling from the crypto audience when Trump has come out fully pro-crypto. It's pretty wild to see this political environment right now. I mean, anybody have a take? Joe, I would love your take. You think we hear about this at the debate and in what context?

Yeah. So David Bailey, who's, I guess, a crypto or Bitcoin advisor to the president's camp. He posted something hinting at some suggestion. I think it's consistent with the campaign that the Republican party in general has been running. I mean, you got to go back to that, you know, that clip that leaked about where the, the zoomer asked Trump at a fundraiser where it seemed totally staged in my opinion about, you know, his, his stance and protecting crypto. And then there's been the House bill that passed

and several other positive things. They're clearly driving this home as a wedge issue. And they think this is going to impact the pocket of voters that they need in certain demographics to steal votes from the Biden campaign. To me, I think the interesting story is not going to become, and it's not going to be Trump saying the same thing he said several times on the stump.

It's going to be the Biden approach, right? Because the Biden campaign has to have a message. And when confronted with this, there will be prepared remarks, right, that he's going to have to say on Thursday. And the question is, how soft is that going to be? Or how strong is going to be? Right? You know, he could say something very vanilla. I think it's probably my base case, something like we're going to protect responsible crypto innovation or something like that, which will be news and positive. I can also see him taking a more aggressive approach, which would be even more impactful. But that's the real story. The real story is when this issue comes up on stage and Trump says the thing he's been saying on the stump, what will be the Biden campaign's response?

Because correct me if I'm wrong, but I have not heard anything from Biden's mouth about crypto. I mean, he's had other people that put out statements about it, but I don't even think he knows what it is, to be quite honest. I mean, I only refer to Biden, I only refer now to it as the White House, right? Because I think it's right, but he has a stress. No, no, I agree. I'm agreeing with you 100%. I'm saying that at this point, like saying Biden is synonymous with just saying the White House, because we know it's largely policy advisors, or people surrounding him or chiefs of staff and such. So I agree with you. I don't think he has to be able to express one if this comes up. And listen, whether it comes up as a actual pre prepared question, or if Trump just goes off the cuff, knowing that this is an area

that he can exploit, it'll be really interesting to see if Biden can respond off the cuff. Yeah, that's going to be, it's exactly, that is going to be the news story. And as you know, Scott, like when people talk about subjects they're not familiar with, sometimes even if they have like prepared remarks, it can sound forced or can sound wacky with the terminology they use. So that's what i'll be looking for like is he going to even get some of the terms correct or is he going to you know totally bullocks it yeah it's going to be going to be fascinating to watch anybody else have a particular thought on the debate uh before we move on i hadn't even thought about it it's two days

away right i'm just disappointed rfk didn't get on stage for anybody else. Yeah, I think that is something which I think is really kind of – it was unsavory, the way it was done. I mean, like, I don't really care as an independent just watching. But, like, if you're going to have a debate, let's have at least the three potential candidates that people can vote for. It just looks like they're trying to maintain a duopoly, which obviously is what's happening. But I think people deserve to listen to RFK as much as – if you're going to have to listen to Trump and Biden, you may as well listen to RFK as well and make your own decision. I think this is getting closer and closer to censorship basically. It's been that way. I mean, yeah, I know.

I know. And I'm yeah, I'm American citizen now, but I'm not American born. So I didn't grow up with American politics. And I just like for me, it's kind of shocking. I mean, South Africa, we've got like 30 political parties. And, you know, I've never seen anything like this where people are just. Well, Vinny, they had a they had a threshold, right? You can't have every random running for president meet the

debate so you have to name some threat to threshold they said that threshold where you had to get i think it was 10 in two national polls and he didn't reach it i mean it wasn't like it it wasn't like they they said no we're just not going to include him um yeah i don't know again i don't know the reasons why i i i had. I heard somewhere that there was some sort of change-up that allowed them to do this. He believed that he had enough in those polls, and they pointed to other polls. Who knows what the reality is? Who even knows what the reality of any of the polls are? I think we've seen how successful polling is in presidential elections in the last few cycles. Not particularly meaningful if you

guys have paid much attention, but it is going to be fascinating, I think, to see what's going to happen on Thursday. I'm sure maybe we should cover it. That would be really fun to do. You should cover it because, Scott, you should cover it because, and I've said this publicly, right? If you look at this cycle as how early they've done it, that does not pass the sniff test. In my mind, that's the biggest news. This is the earliest presidential debate that you've had, I think, in modern history. I can't correct me wrong. I've looked at having to find any example of a June debate that is pre-convention.

To me, that tells me that they want to do a dry run to have time if these two candidates do not end up being the two candidates for the parties. I can see a lot of reasons why the Biden campaign won't want this if he underperforms. He's already got low expectations of where he should come in. But if he underperforms even the low expectations, you want time in there and you want time in advance of the August convention. Makes a lot of sense. We'll see how it plays out. Listen, there's plenty of people with pretty strong opinions as to who will or will not be the candidates coming into the fall. So either way, I think I have to just like put a bow on it.

Regardless, I don't think that three or four months ago, I would have ever imagined that we had such a favorable political environment considering how bad things were. I think Trump has come out exceptionally pro-crypto, obviously, RFK already was, and that's forced the hand of the Biden campaign. Now, I don't know what they would do with actual policy if they won, but I think it's become very clear that being anti-crypto is politically unpopular and potentially political death sentence in the United States. So I'd have to imagine that regardless who wins, at least the scenario is definitively better than we would have thought a few months ago. Right?

I'm not saying necessarily good or bad with either, but I think that Trump has certainly exposed how, like I said, politically unpopular and anti-crypto army is. Hey, to me, the to me, the the election that matters the most, by the way, is John Deaton versus Senator Warren. And I know a lot of people here supported John. We've done done fundraisers for him and spaces with him. But if he beats her, I think that that would eliminate a lot of problems that won't even be eliminated in a presidential election. Simon, I mean, what do you think here? Do you think that we're going to be hearing about it in the debates? Yeah, absolutely. As a non-American, non-voter that's going to be deeply affected by everything that happens in this election um i'm only i only care about two issues which is um the the bitcoin side i think it i think it kicks off a game theoretical

uh really healthy environment where america says i want to have all the last bitcoins made in america with all the other countries to react to that with all the politicians to react to that with all the other parties with all the other states to react to that, with all the politicians to react to that, with all the other parties, with all the other states to react to that. So I think it kicks off a really positive game theory cycle. And so I think it will be mentioned. And I think it's what Joe said. What we're going to be looking out for is similar to RFK. When he did his speech in Miami at the Miami Bitcoin conference he kind of used the wrong words saying yeah we're going to put the whole of government on the blockchain and it's a bit cringeworthy when you've been involved in the industry and you know you kind

of like the amateur obvious things to say when someone said you've got to talk about Bitcoin and blockchain and various other things but i think it's a test of the language that is used and then obviously the only other thing that i think really impacts bitcoin is generally who's who's war policy and that type of thing so i think those are the two really things i'm looking that are going to really impact Bitcoin into the future. Wow. I didn't have Bitcoin being a key topic in the June presidential debate on my bingo card. So I'm going to take it. We can wrap up on that here.

I want to talk to JP, who we have here from ThorChain. What's up, man? How are you? Sup? Thanks for having me on. And as an Australian, as much as I hate politicians and politics, every year this happens there, every four years. But the reason is the whole world is captivated by U.S. politics,

is the U.S. Constitution is one of the greatest forms of document that have given us Western democracy. So cheers to the U.S. Constitution for free speech, free thought, free agency to even getting us here. So here we go. This is what we deserve. Cheers to that. I totally agree. Although I would say that what we're seeing play out in American politics doesn't actually reflect the intentions of the Constitution at this point. Well, that's the thing, right? So everyone's trying to protect the US Constitution because the US Constitution

has given us the technology, the free speech, the free agency, everything, even just the code that we're communicating, this iPhone and whatnot. It's all thanks to free markets, free speech, and free ideas. So, that's it. And as a result, the US landscape is extremely chaotic. But out of chaos, we've got innovation. And that's it. And as a result, you know, the U.S. landscape is extremely chaotic. But out of chaos, you know, we've got innovation. And that's the reason why the whole world is constantly captivated by the U.S., including myself. Yeah, well, listen, can't that be a nice segue? You talk about free speech and freedom and entrepreneurship and innovation.

You're one of the early innovation innovators, obviously, in this space, you've built quite a few things have probably, you know, navigated some regulatory landmines and such all over the place. But interestingly, you know, I had Eric Voorhees years ago, years ago on my podcast, and he couldn't stop talking about Thorchain. Right? How exceptionally bullish he was on the ability to, I remember him saying, you know, natively swap Bitcoin to Tether, how earth shattering that was as a Bitcoin, you know, maximalist in his mind. And, you know, you guys have just continued to sort of build and innovate. Maybe just give people the quick background on you and ThorChain before we dig into the other things

you guys are building right now. Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, ThorChain is just the answer to the question, what does it take to swap Bitcoin to ETH? It's literally ETH to Bitcoin. And we started looking into this problem back in 2017, 18. At the time, the only solution was atomic swaps. And I'm not sure if you remember atomic swaps in 2017 where you could, you know, this promise where you could like sign this on-chain transaction and then in this kind of two out of two script, you could back and forth. It took like eight steps to swap a Litecoin to a Bitcoin using atomic swaps.

And so we looked at that problem and said, no, that is not the solution. Users just want a fire and forget swap. How do you actually solve that problem? And we looked at multisig, we looked at state machines, and all this technology was coming to bear. We ended up taking the Cosmos state machine, which is still in beta software in 2019. And in 2018, there's a couple of US researchers, Stephen Goldfeder and his buddy Simon Gennaro released a paper called GG18, which is fast trustlessless, ECDSA setup with basically this kind of multi-party computation protocol

that allowed an on-chain vault to be created between Ethereum and Bitcoin without the use of multi-signatures. And that bit of software was released to the world in 2018. It had a few bugs in it, and it was kind of revised in 2019 and finally implemented by Binance and Zengo in their wallets. And so, in 2019, we took that software and we took the Cosmos State Machine software, jammed the two together and threw it out in the world and the rest is history. It worked and it works today. So, that's Thorchain. Yeah.

Basically, it allows you to swap Bitcoin to ETH. Yeah. It's a little more than that. But yeah, I love the simplification of it because it's happening natively. So it really is different. And that's what at that time made Eric so mind blown by it, which really obviously got me to pay attention because you don't hear someone like that speak so favorably about something very often. But obviously, so you just talked talked about how at that time that technology was effectively incorporated into binance and these other wallets but now obviously you guys have voltisig which uh is your own wallet right the multi-chain crypto vault with two-factor security as i'm reading about it here supports most change of tokens no specialized hardware needed can you can you talk about why you're doing that yourself? Yeah, I mean, I set up

a fund in January this year, so I raised a bunch of money to invest into crypto across multiple chains, so Solana, Bitcoin, ETH, ThorChain, and there was no multi-chain, multi-sig wallet solution. I was pulled out of my ledger, I had to download all the software. I was like, hang on a minute, we've already solved this problem back in 2018 using this MPC software, the GG18, which became GG19 MPC. So, I called up my CTO from ThoughtChain, we're like, well, let's take this TSS protocol and stick it in a retail wallet.

I was, in 2018, I was helping, 2017, I was helping Victor Rechenko with TrustWallet. And TrustWallet was the first mainstream crypto wallet. I reckon most of your listeners here have used TrustWallet at one point in time. They have 100 million downloads. And what we did with TrustWallet and my help there is Victor and his team built a giant wallet library that abstracts out most of the on-chain aspects to do with most of the blockchains. It's called WalletCore and it's basically github.com slash Trust Wallet slash WalletCore. And it's one of

the most forked wallet libraries for wallets.ets and so we took that wallet library and we took the ThorChain TSS protocol and once again we jammed the two together after two weeks of grinding and hacking away and we realize it works and so what it is is it's this open source and now it's been audited cross-chain NPC wallet So with a single key, you can generate the address of any blockchain in the world. Anyone. So Solana,

Ton, Bitcoin, ETH, just with a single key that's created from multiple devices. So you can have like your iPhone, your MacBook, your Apple Watch, and your Roomba vacuum cleaner soon.

But it's multi-factor. It's on-chain multi-factor. So instead of carrying around a ledger, you just fly around the world with a MacBook and an iPhone. Yeah, that's really interesting because it kind of has all the benefits of the hardware wallet, but it's to your own devices, right? So you have the vault.

It's really unique because I think people are... I mean, hardware wallets, man, they're terrifying in my mind. I'm sorry. I have them. I use them. I have many multi-sig setups, all of this, but there's no worse feeling than plugging that thing in and it's dead or it doesn't work. It is terrifying. I don't care how many times you do it, how often you use them, how often you have to go check and make

sure it's still there. I just find the whole process terrifying. And I just don't think your average person is ever going to get there. It is terrifying and it should be terrifying because it's a single signature and you have to write down your seed phrase and you have to I mean, the ledger device, you have to trust that that ledger is never going to leak your private key. And unfortunately, that company has made the decision to write a code path which pulls your private key out of that device

and uploads it into its software. And then you have to trust that one, that company is never going to ship your ledger that firmware update or hasn't already done so or there isn't already a back door that lives in your ledger software that yanks your private key out so it's extremely dangerous right now to be trusting a european software company to manage that to trust that they won't do that because there is a code path right now in your ledger to do that. But the bigger problem is a single signature wallet

is not a safe way to handle your crypto. You do not log in. You log into your Gmail, your Discord, your bank, right, with two-factor, like an SMS code gets sent to your device or you pull out your your author or your your your google g code off you have two factor you you've got accustomed to having multi-factor login multi-factor security so we basically apply that to crypto wallets this this uh this cryptocurrency requires you to bring two devices all the time. And these two devices are the devices that you carry around with you every single day.

It doesn't look like a crypto vault. And that's the main thing. Really smart. And that's not the only thing that you guys are obviously launching right now. Can you tell us a bit about DecaSwap? I'm going deep down the rabbit hole. I'm going deep down the rabbit hole here. Yeah.

So, the last six years I've been working with the team to build out this kind of base lab protocol that solves the hardcore problems

of decentralized liquidity. But this protocol cannot market itself to you. It needs to be credibly neutral. It needs to be decentralized. It should not have

a relationship with the user. If it does have a relationship with the user, it can become have a relationship with the user, it can become captured. And there's many examples of protocols that market themselves to users and became captured

because they were vertically integrated. Unfortunately, we do not have Tornado Cache with us today because the people behind Tornado Cache built it, they built it in a way that allowed it to be captured. That protocol should have been credibly neutral, shooting split up on multiple layers. It's a fundamentally good protocol. I used it.

Vitalik Buterin used it. Probably 10% to 20%. I don't think you're allowed to say that out loud in 2024. No, absolutely we should. Back in 2018, 19 we we all used it but talik peterman was tweeting this is a good product everyone used it in that that era before it got put on the ofac list the reason why we don't have tornado cash today despite it being a fundamentally private good, a public good, is because it was captured by its means of distribution to you. The same developer who wrote the smart contracts, who organized the entropy generation ceremonies,

which I participated in, by the way, who organized the, who shipped it on a website, who marketed it, who created a DAO around it, who added a fee switch, which paid himself, unfortunately, was captured. However, I can go, I'm in Vietnam right now. I can go down to the markets and buy a Baomin bun and pay in Vietnamese dong, right? And nobody in the world knows where I got that cash or who I'm paying. That's a private transaction. And that's what Tornado Cash enabled us to do. Anyway, unfortunately, we don't have Tornado Cash

because the protocol should have been incredibly neutral. So getting back, this is zooming right back out again. The thought chain is a incredibly neutral protocol that cannot have a relationship with you. However, I think 100 million users are going to need a multi will be in the multi-chain future. Telegram right now has 1 billion users that Pavel Durov is working hard to put on chain right now in front of your eyes. Telegram is a $100 billion chain in the making. If

I were you, I would go out and buy some ton right now. Not financial advice, guys. Not financial advice. But it's completely true. Solana, Ton, EVM, even the SUI networks, Bitcoin, these are all completely different architectures and a multi-chain future. But however, you do not have a single interface to

wrap all these protocols to allow you to go from not coin which prevails shilling in these telegram channels to the latest celebrity mean coin that's been shilled in solana there is no no ability for you to do that today however you need to do that so that's what i'm trying to build with dakoswap long-winded answer but i hope i covered the main points there. You absolutely did. I love listening to the thought process. So how is it different than other, I guess, competitive platforms? It's basically a giant brand and a giant interface roll-up. So I recognize there's lots of little interfaces.

These teams, 5 to 10 B, they've got a budget, a treasury of $5 to $10 million, and they're all trying to build the same thing, which is to get 100 million users on-chain across multiple chains. So there's lots of noise. There's lots of little teams all competing against each other, trying to build the same thing. And there's value leakage because they have to maintain.

This is so many overlapping parts of those teams. So what I recognize instead of to break through the noise, why don't we just have a giant team split up that's distributed around the world, building a cohesive product strategy with a giant brand marketing itself to a hundred million users at the same level as binance crack and coinbase do with their giant treasures which is totally possible it's just a game of coordination so that's that's the vision of deca swap decentralized swaps

building for next decades you know the meta meme there is it's's, it's like this decacorn figure, which is the unicorn killer. And the unicorn is, you know, who? Uniswap. So there's a bit of a meme play going on there. And that's behind the brand, but I'm trying to tap right now.

Yeah. Now I'm digging deeper and I need you to tell me about project chaos. Okay. So project chaos is this idea. I love this line of questioning as I dig deeper into everything that I'm reading. So back in 2020, Sushi Shop, I mean, when DeFi Summer 1.0 kicked off, we had Andre, we launched Yearn, and that was quite interesting.

And then we had the Yams. You sit there earning your Yams and then Yam messed up the token contract and then they had to fork to Yam V2 and they messed that up and they talked to Yam V3 and then everyone was like, well, Uniswap should release the token that they're not. So then SushiShop, which was a fork of the Yam interface by the way. And the Yam interface was a fork of the YAM interface, by the way. And the YAM interface was a fork of Andre's interface. It's so funny how it all works like that.

And then, so SushiSwap front-run Uniswap releasing a token and they hit like 5 billion FTV in six months and 5 billion TVL very quickly. But interesting what happened was not only did SushiSwap balloon in FTV and TVL, but so did Uniswap. And then the whole DeFi summer kicked off. So, the stimulation in DeFi and then we got like this kind of like DeFi summer where there's like so many protocols launching. Lending protocols, rebasing protocols, reserve protocols.

I forgot about the rebasing summer. Yeah, that was a time. protocols, rebasing protocols, reserve protocols. I forgot about the rebasing summer. Yeah, that was a time. Yeah, rebasing. But in this kind of like, I mean, why do you watch WWE wrestling? It's all fake, right? I mean, the wrestlers are obviously like completely set up and contrived. But people love a bit of a game, a bit of an arena. They love the sportsmanship and getting in the arena

like this kind of fake war. So, this idea is what if we just kick it off ourselves? What if we actually launch this project which does nothing but a vampire attack all the other protocols? Like for 6 months straight and just kind of kick off this energy and channel people's focus for six months on deep back on d5 again because what actually happened is after d5 summer 1.0 this john hot ball of money went on to high ftv spf coins for a while and they went from sam coins onto nfts and we had nft uh season and then this hot ball of money is now in sitting in meme coin land.

And it's like, what happened? I mean, meme coins are like high velocity memes. They have a very fast half-life. And I speak to founders who are, who are just completely wasting their time on meme coins. They're building like meme coin launch pads. But the problem with meme coins is nothing really gets built. I mean, some people might have fun. Most people don't actually.

If you think about meme coins, the first one-third of people getting the meme coin make a lot of money. The middle one-third don't really make money. I don't even think the first one-third make money. I think the value of their tokens goes up, but that doesn't mean they actually sell them. But yeah, quit. Yeah. I mean, like, there you go. Like maybe the first 10% actually get out. So like, and it's just this kind of like, it's this high velocity meme. It does nothing actually really gets built. So the whole

whole point of Project Chaos is to create so much noise and chaos in a good way that by kind of creating this giant game of protocol versus protocol, where we go out and literally attack all the grades or the DeFi protocols and force them to respond and then kick off incentive wars and kick off attention, we can attract all that hot ball of money away from meme coin land back into DeFi and kick off DeFi Summer 2.0. Like that's the idea.

I mean, it might not actually happen, but I'm going to get in the arena and try and see what happens. So that's literally Project Chaos. We're raising $30 million, maybe even $50 million to literally do nothing but attack all the other protocols inside the next six months before Christmas. And let's give it a go. Everyone's super interested to see what will happen.

Dude, every time you're a madman, I love it. But don't you wish you could do this? Yes, of course. I can't do anything, man. I can't even get a Word document to function. Haven't you ever wondered, what if you just had a protocol that did nothing but attack other protocols? That would be a lot of fun, don't you think? Well, that's what we're going to try and do. A $50 million experiment sounds like a good time. Yeah.

What will happen is, if we go out and start attacking protocols, one, everyone's going to have a lot of fun. And two, the other protocol will be forced to respond. So by driving up incentives and doing things. Three, it's going to be in like Cointelegraph, Coindesk and on your crypto timeline every single day. And then we're going to drown out all the celebrities dropping meme coins on the Instas. And then everyone shifts back to defy and now

infrastructure gets built again because defy is where infrastructure gets built because if you think about it we have all these decentralized coins but we still trade most of them on centralized exchange gross and that's a problem of course that's that's the problem we've been trying to solve for six years and so and so we we must continue all right man anything anything uh any last things i might have missed here uh that uh you want to mention before we go because uh you know it's wrapping time and i'm having fun so no i mean the other thing is like the world got decelerated in COVID. COVID decelerated, took people's jobs away, put them in homes and slowed them down.

And so, we now need to reactivate everyone. And more than just like consume more, but it's create more. And this idea that humanity should start to learn, move and create more because the real test of humanity is going to happen in the next 10 to 15 years when the bots are going to be out in full force. And the bots are going to generate an infinite stream of content to zombify 90% of humanity.

So if you are vulnerable to content and a consumption death spiral, you should be very nervous right now because these bots are going to work out exactly the content to feed you, to zombify you. And if you cannot escape the infinite content machine, you will become unconscious and become captured. So, for everyone listening, be very, very careful. Get out there right now, get in the arena and start creating things. Start converting your time and effort to real meaningful work, right? Get out and work.

And you're not actually there to turn your time and effort into money and sit on that money and die with it. No. Money is an ability to buy someone else's time and effort to create memes and genes. You have to out-meme the bots and you got to out-ggene the bots. So have kids, right? A lot of kids. But more importantly, you get in the arena and start working and converting your time and effort into memes. Create highly potent memes. And that's what I'll finish up on.

Love it, man. Thank you so much. We've got to have a longer conversation one day. Maybe a podcast or something. Absolutely love that, man. Thank you so much. We got to have a longer conversation one day, maybe a podcast or something. Absolutely love that guys. We should follow Thor chain, obviously follow JP himself. Incredible insights. And I love the way you think you guys, that's all we got for today. We will be back obviously tomorrow, 10 15 AM Eastern standard time. Thanks to all the guests, especially the UJP man. Thank you very much guys. We will see you. Thanks. Yeah. Go ahead. to you, JP, man. Thank you very much. Guys, we will see you. Thanks.

Yeah, go ahead. Yeah. Thanks for having me on. See you guys. See you tomorrow. Bye.