The Wolf Of All Streets - BTC Is Rising. Full Recovery Soon? w/ @ByteAIToken | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: May 6, 2024

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As is tradition, we're glitching here and trying to figure out how to get everybody on stage. But happy Monday, everyone. I see Mario waving. Very helpful. Hi, Mario, listener. It's very, very useful. I'm glad that you can wave at us. Dave, we talked about, what, 12 minutes ago?

Pretty good. I mean, you know, we're keeping up. Not many gaps between YouTube and Spaces. Mario, can you actually talk now? Yeah, I can. No, no, I can. Can you hear me? I'm about to finish a chamber,

so a bit of background noise. Can you hear me? You sound spectacular. I'm on the beach in Puerto Rico, or next to it, down here exploring the lovely land of tax avoidance and crypto. Okay.

Do you see what happened to me on the weekend? The craziness, the two shows we did, lovely land of tax avoidance and crypto. Okay. Do you see what happened to me on the weekend? The craziness, the two shows we did, or you kind of completely ignored my account for two days. No, I actually saw it. It's not pretty crazy.

All the Brazil. The Brazil one. Yeah. Those mental. Yeah. I'm also in the hyperbaric chamber. There's a place in Dubai. It's like a famous biohacking place. Everyone in crypto comes here.

It's like every time, like I'm in a hyperbaric chamber now which I can put video and I just got a VC here. I won't say who it is, but we started talking about their strategy. They're coming really early in projects. We're coming a bit later. And I started having a back and forth with them about what you're trying to, what we

discussed earlier, Scott, which we will not discuss now. Don't worry. We're just chatting now literally, and I realized I'm late for the show. But yeah, man, good to speak to your pessimistic ass again. I'm very optimistic. I'm an eternal optimist. How's the markets been on the weekend?

I've been a bit busy. I mean, we obviously had that sort of big dip down below 60 that had us calling for new bear markets and terrified and going to zero and then just right back to 64. All sideways, just sideways. And so essentially, you see that happening, as you said before, you see that happening for the next few months, essentially, plus or minus, before we start hitting all-time highs again?

I mean, that's my base case. I think it's the, you know, if you're looking at it statistically and you believe in past cycles or you kind of saw what was going on, that's just what I would place the largest statistical chance at. But we're talking about like slightly over 50%, right? So I have no idea what would happen. I don't think a big up move or a big down move would surprise me at all

but if you want just default to the halving cycle it should be a very boring until the fall and then hopefully things tick up but by the way just everyone was talking about the bitcoin etfs so just sorry the hong kong bitcoin and ethereum etfs and just kind of give you guys an idea on why it really doesn't matter the um the trading volume of the of the us etfs in that same period where 200 let me make sure if the numbers are correct uh in the eyes of the previous trading day was yeah so the the trading volume on may 6th of the hong kong etfs was 60 million 60 um which was only okay on the way so was oh that's hong kong dollars okay so us dollars only seven million that's no joke the the the hong kong bitcoin ethereum etfs were at 7.7 million

the trading volume of the us etfs uh on that same day after launch was 268 x more in other words uh this is probably the last time i'll ever mention the Hong Kong Bitcoin. If you dig into what Balchunis said, if you look relative to the size of the United States market, the Hong Kong market, it's actually effectively equivalent. Not that that necessarily means it's great or bad. It's still very small numbers, but effectively, you know, the same percentage versus the entire size of the ETF market was traded in Hong Kong. It's just the problem is their entire market is around the year. So in other words, it doesn't matter for us to care about it, but it shows there is the same amount of interest, but the same interest doesn't really matter in terms of dollar volume,

fair? Yeah, I think, you know, Dave, I think, Dave, you're the one who said this quite often on the show. It might have been someone else. But basically, I think all of these steps are meaningful because it was Nathaniel Whittemore actually, but all these steps are meaningful. The ETF here, you know, the ETF in Hong Kong, because structurally it allows for the things that we hope will happen to

happen, right? There's steps in the right direction. Even if they don't get demand immediately, they can, It exists now. You know, people can push towards that. And that's why we're seeing this slow, I think, increase in demand and unlocks of RIAs and platforms starting to come to this body. They weren't even entertaining the idea of it until it was real. And now that it is, we can see what happens. Yeah, I mean, that's absolutely right. Certainly in the U.S., that's absolutely true. Hong Kong is interesting because in Asia, there's no real difficulty in buying Bitcoin, right? You know, through OKEx, through Binance, through Bybit, whatever. I mean, you can, it's not hard. But what is interesting is that the Hong Kong government, which obviously takes its direction from the CCP,

that's a very big narrative change. And so the real issue is, will money flow from more mainland Chinese sources into the Hong Kong base ETF? Or is it just a symbol? Either way, it's not a bad thing. The US one is very, very different. That is an unlock to an enormous amount of capital. We've talked about this, you know, ad nauseum on this site. And we're still, you know, months away from a real chance for a lot of these platforms. They're all doing due diligence. I mean, the point that I did make on our show earlier this morning that is interesting is the fact that last week, we had the dip that we had. And yes, it was the most outflows that we've ever seen but it was hardly meaningful pretty much proves that at least in the short run

that the ETFs are not going to increase volatility but rather decrease volatility and that it really isn't that big of a deal while they're not diamond hands people any more than anything else would be that there's a significant amount of long-term money going into the ETFs. And that matters because that will help new players in the ETF, new RIAs and other platforms as part of their due diligence. Yeah, totally agree with that.

Mario, did we want to dig into market? What direction do you want to go? I'm obviously all over the place here. I can see you all over the place on the beach. I want to stay on mute on purpose to see how all over the place you are. Because you said you'll be here for the beginning. I'm like, oh, let's see if Scott could enjoy the beach and be here for the beginning. I'm currently on a golf cart on the way to the golf course to meet James Heckman for a meeting.

Oh, shit. Oh, nice. All right. Send him my regards. Let me go to Ryan. I'm driving past Peter Schiff's house right now. Peter Schiff was just jabbing at Elon. No, not jabbing. Actually, agreeing with Elon earlier today.

Because both him and Elon are happily attacking the US dollar together. Just before going to Ryan, just getting an update on the U.S. ETFs. And actually, I'll move on from this point, Scott. It's a separate point. Let's continue the discussion. Ryan, can you give us the numbers on the Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., the ones that matter? How are the inflows and outflows? And can you also talk about one thing we've talked about before is the reaction of the ETF, the response to market volatility.

How has that response been? Have we seen the ETF outflows correlate in a concerning way with any retracement in the markets? Because we've seen the retracement weren't that concerning, but the retracements nonetheless, there was a fear. I want to say there was fear, but the greed eased up pretty quickly. How did the ETFs respond to that? Ryan? Yeah, that's a great question. So I think we definitely saw outflows happen as the market was crashing. Now, were they extremely material outflows? I would say no relative to the amount of inflows that we had.

I mean, you're talking a few hundred million compared to billions or over 10 billion of inflows. So I think it's a drop in the bucket when you think of it like that. What's also interesting to me is that on Friday, which was the last day these traded, obviously before today, collectively the ETFs in the US saw 250 million in inflows. So it was more than enough to offset majority of what flowed out of the ETFs in the preceding days. It wasn't 100% offsetting it, but I think it still shows that investors are more eagerly sitting on the sidelines waiting for good buying opportunities when the momentum kind of flips back in a positive direction than they're sitting there crushing the sell button

on days the price is down. So it doesn't deter us. I'm still optimistic about the allocations that we expect to see coming. I still think there's a lot of advisors on the sideline that still can't access these ETFs. So better pricing for them to enter the market, ability to access are two huge factors, and clearly we saw that take hold on Friday. Can you give us an overview on the inflows and outflows in recent days uh yeah so uh one second so we saw well may 1st was the largest outflow day collectively there

was about 600 million in outflows right and that was far more than we had seen in prior days you're talking you know 100 million maybe 200 million in one day on April 30th. And also this giant 600 million in outflows. And then a mix of inflows and outflows across the funds and then huge inflow day. So it kind of does correlate with the Bitcoin price. We saw Bitcoin trading down. It kind of breached lower and lower over the last two weeks. And then we saw a big outflow day happen. And all of a sudden, you know, things flipped back positive.

We saw some ETFs having inflows. And then collectively across the board, they all had inflows on Friday. So it does follow, right, this price action in a way, which makes sense. If you're an advisor or a retail investor, I mean, sitting on the sideline and, you know, you're sitting there debating whether you should get into Bitcoin. If you see the price kind of, you know, trailing lower day after day after day, and all of a sudden you see this rebound day, that's going to be your moment most likely to jump on in, right? You're not going to, I think most retail investors aren't buying on down days. They're probably buying on, you know, the first up day following a cycle of down days.

And other than the ETFs, I want to go to David, David Tawil. David, can you hear me? I just brought you up. So I think you Tawil. David, can you hear me? I know I just brought you up, so I think you're connecting now. David, can you hear me? Tawil? I can hear you, Mario. Yeah, David, I'm sure you were on the finance space today with Danish, and I'm sure you were there last week as well. Analysts in the show on Friday, what are factors that could change their expectation of history repeating itself this time around similar to previous cycles? And one of the two possibilities they gave is that the macro environment having an impact on the market and not seeing new all-time highs.

So can you give us an update on the points being discussed in the finance space and your thoughts on the economy in general, and obviously the Fed and inflation? Yeah, I thought that the slowdown in hiring, coupled with Powell's clear statement that there won't be any rate hikes this year was what met with a bit too much euphoria. I think the market's overreacted. I don't think things have changed all that much. In the consumer space, we're starting to see, and maybe it's been there for a while, low-end consumers really getting hurt in terms of discretionary spending. We've seen the liquidations of a bunch of chain stores recently, Route 21, 99-Cents Only Stores, Sam Ash Music here in the Northeast.

And then we've seen some rescue financings for some, what I'd say are lower middle market retailers. I think it's good money after bad, but in the case of the Children's Place, Express, and Joanne Fabrics, none of these names are particularly gigantic, but it, and all of them have been, you know, I'd say in trouble for a while. Red Lobster is another, you know, company that's going to go through restructuring, I think we're now clear that rates are not going anywhere anytime soon. I still believe we will get one token rate cut before the end of the year.

But the Fed is certainly not in and nor is it going to be in, I believe, in a position to go ahead and cut rates meaningfully to make a difference fundamentally. People may get excited about the fact that we're going to get a rate cut and therefore risk assets may rally. And there may be some thawing in the real estate markets that have been most troubled, like commercial real estate and the housing market. But I don't believe that there is going to be a real fundamental change in the environment. Remember also, I've been saying it for a while, continue to say it, we're in an election year. Biden's going to do everything he can in order to make people feel good about what's been done, what is going on and what will happen under a second presidency, crazy policy moves are not out of

the question, you know, from not banning menthol cigarettes to, you know, degrading the severity of the marijuana, you know, conviction and things like that. I think people and student loan forgiveness more substantially. So I think people need to go ahead and be aware of all that stuff. With respect to crypto, which is where I spend most of my time, even though I have a lot to say about a lot of other stuff, I believe with respect to crypto and all that, there are two things in my mind. A rally and risk on assets and tech being good, I think is generally good for crypto. Although I'm happy to say that crypto is has developed and is running a separate narrative from all of that very real in a very real way in terms of the ETFs in terms of, you know,

everything going on, whether it be ETFs in Australia or ETF, which should be coming ETF in Hong Kong, uh, whether it's BlackRock using Ethereum more and more, um, you know, investing heavily in securitized home and, and, and, and other, you know, layer ones getting more play, I think that's all fine and good. My concern is that after the election, the macro environment is going to change substantially, and I think investor sentiment may change substantially to the negative. We're going to get a new Fed president for sure, or new Fed chair, I should say, for sure, regardless of who wins. All of the, you know, vote buying initiatives that make people feel like they have money in their pocket are going to go ahead and go away. And I think there may

be some sort of reckoning, if not a serious reckoning, you know, after the election. And then the question becomes, is crypto a safe haven asset? Because there's a lot of bad balance sheets around the world, inclusive of the United States. Dave and Jeff, can you hear me? Yeah, I can hear you. Yeah, my thoughts are that, as we've all shared in the past, I think this is a macro-driven environment for where Bitcoin's price action is starting to emerge as a bit of a leading indicator. I think we saw kind of just generally the willingness for the Fed to acknowledge the possibility of more dovish actions to be taken in the strongest form possible with weak unemployment data, especially on Friday.

So those things, of course, fueled risk appetite coming into the manifestation of the ETF flows. The few things that I'm paying attention to is on the alpha front of what kind of signals are available on the short term versus that long term macro tailwind. Two things I'll highlight. One thing that I think is making this market relatively difficult to trade is if you look at the spot versus vol correlation of Bitcoin, it doesn't happen often, but there are windows when that correlation does turn negative. You saw it kind of happen earlier in this year in January. But generally, it tends to be in the positive territory.

And that's really a difficult, difficult environment. For those who are familiar with options trading, we all know that there's this concept of a skew where people want to buy protection more than speculate to the upside. And there's a premium for that. And generally, that means when markets go down, implied volatility tends to go up. And you get that benefit with your put options also increasing in price, not by spot, but also by vol. In April, what you observed was, despite the crazy price action of Bitcoin being down roughly anywhere from 15 to 17%, depending on your index, vol actually got crushed too. So it went from somewhere in the 70s to the mid 50s, even touching low 50s at some point. I think it's still on the mid 50s today.

It's a highly unusual environment. That being said, I think that means a great opportunity to position for upside call options would be that window. And some of, I think, the flows you might have seen in price action may have leaned into some of those call option driven delta that was created because the ball was so low. The other thing that I would highlight is momentum signals have been whiplashing a little bit in April. One of the things that I keep track is the Coindesk trend indicator, which is freely open source public. Anyone can look into the methodology. It basically spits out a discrete value based on four different exponential moving average pairs. It actually turned neutral today. It was actually in downtrend for the past four days, and then it quickly flipped back

to neutral. Now, if you traded that, you obviously would have gotten hurt. And so it shows you that this is a bit of an unstable environment for even these trend indicators. So there isn't a clear path for some absolute certainty as to immediate price action. But I do think it is a macro driven environment. And that sensitivity to that is acknowledged by the lack of direction in some of these near term alpha signals. And do you share Dave's concerns?

And regarding the... Jeff? Sorry, Mario, you cut out for a second. I couldn't quite hear exactly what you said. David, can you hear me? I think he asked. He broke up. Yes, for sure. I think he was asking if you shared.

Oh, I can't hear you. You're breaking up. No, no. Is that the macro sentiment more Jeff? Hey, Mario. So is it better now? Jeff? Can you hear me now? Go ahead, Jeff. Jeff, you go ahead. Yeah, it's better now, Mario, I think.

Give it a shot. Otherwise, I'll try to answer what I think you were asking. I wouldn't count on Mario at the moment. Go ahead, Jeff. I got it. No, Jeff, I think you were breaking up for everyone, Mario. You had a bad signal and were glitching. I think we should discuss this wildly in front of everybody there.

It's not embarrassing at all. Perfect. I think in just macro terms, Friday, the US data was just very, very bullish for markets. That's across every asset class. The FOMC just being super dovish. We saw the QT slowing down from Powell signaling that they're going to engage in less of the buybacks. All those things, I think, have helped kind of pick up risk appetite. And then unemployment data came pretty weak. And unemployment rate also ticked up a little bit more than expected, which has been a little bit rarer to see. And then, of course, the U.S. two-year got crushed

from five to almost four and a half. That's a big move for those who are following the short end of the curve. So, I think that does put down some pressure on the dollar rally. You know, the other thing that we are all watching with some interest is the dollar-yen. The dollar-yen, in a lot of ways to me, kind of signals a little bit of the canary in the coal mine for how the macro market is positioning. And that has calmed out a little bit too. Some of you may be familiar, at one point it broke 160 and people had speculated that the Japanese central bank got involved not just once, but twice last week. There is going to be more information on that coming as they announced.

And so everyone's paying attention to these macro sentiments. I do think it is a macro-driven environment for how people are positioning around crypto markets today, despite all the excitement that we have seen through the halvening and everything else. Jeff, can you hear me now? Yes.

Oh, perfect. All right, cool. If there's a glitch, David, you've moderated spaces before you could take over because Scott is in the middle of the sea. David, I do want to go to you as well. The question I had for you, Jeff, and something David, a concern David mentioned is that post-election, do you expect the sentiment to shift post-election? How big of a concern is that for you? So last question for you, Jeff, then we'll go back to David. And then I want to go to Preston just for a few legal updates as well. Go ahead, Jeff, on the post-election sentiment, and then we'll go to David, and then we'll go to Preston afterwards. Yeah, I think post-election sentiment, I feel,

would be extremely bullish. I think the election itself is a bit of a breathing room for us to catch up to the market. The reason I say it is because in the US, at least, I think the election itself is a bit of a breathing room for us to catch up to the market. The reason I say it is because in the U.S. at least, I think both parties are aligned on one thing, which is that there is no end to the winding of the fiscal budget. And I think that's a unified agreement on both sides. Where I do think, though, the strength of the crypto market being a little bit stronger with the Republican Party is not just on the end of policies, of course, which we're all following, but it does kind of create an environment where the free-for-all that the Trump administration creates ascertains some aspects of the value proposition of a censorship-resistant asset.

So, you know, you guys may have seen there was a headline story in the Wall Street Journal that Trump may look to influence the Fed more directly in rate-setting policies. That's unnerving, right? That's actually something that is extremely unnerving as an American, not just because maybe deep down inside we know that, of course, the Fed is not biased, but the Fed is a player of the global policy setting world. So the Fed has to walk this delicate line of managing, for example, the Japanese bond markets. And when you play your cards this openly, this transparently, and you show it to international participants, it is going to create less trust and more desire for the possibility of

things that are censorship resistant. So the more of those kinds of languages emerge, which will, I think, come more from the Republican Party, I think it's an extremely bullish tailwind for crypto as a broad asset class. David? Yeah, regarding the unnerving part of Trump taking over the Fed, I mean, Donald Trump, just because I'm a sheet and to be abused by him. And so I would be even think he will take good counsel over how to control the Fed if he did have control of the Fed. Plus, it would be seen as a very dangerous relationship, I would say, by our borrowers all around the world. With respect to another point I want to make regarding crypto, and I'm sure you guys have discussed this already on a show last week. But, you know, Jack Dorsey and BlockSquares, you know, Bitcoin, I don't know, I'd say, you know, announcement regarding investment to me got played up a lot by Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. If we see another company, and frankly, if I were Michael Saylor, I would bribe somebody to make a similar announcement,

because once we start to see corporate activity in terms of Bitcoin buying as a real treasury asset, you know, whether that's a wise thing or not, I'll leave that, you know, that argument to a different space. But I think that there will be, you know, a kind of fear of missing out momentum that will happen from that. And that could be a huge narrative that would go ahead and drive the price of Bitcoin higher. The fact that we heard out of BlackRock over the past week that they are seriously talking, they have been talking for a long time to pension funds and sovereign wealth funds about investing in Bitcoin. And the fact that Morgan Stanley seems to be getting closer to allowing brokers to go

ahead and pitch, you know, Bitcoin related investments. I mean, all this stuff, I know we've been talking ad nauseum, it almost seems like forever about this stuff. But these are the tidal waves that are coming. And I think it bodes incredibly well and maybe timed very well vis-a-vis the election, vis-a-vis a lack of confidence in sovereign governments to go ahead and manage their balance sheets and their currencies appropriately. I mean there really could be an incredible confluence of events here that I'm excited to go ahead and keep an eye on. And before going to Preston, Dave, any other comments on this? Dave Weisberger? I'm going to go. All good, Dave. The point, well, I mean, I think it matters that people understand the dynamics of how the big pools of capital are doing due diligence now and how what we've seen as exceeding of expectations, I can't think of the right verb tense for that,

as the Bitcoin inflows have been in the first three months, the fact that such a small amount came out during what looked to be an unraveling is very important and will help with due diligence. And so it's hard to underestimate just how long-term bullish the process is and how we're basically back where we were, as opposed to it all unraveling as lots of people have talked about. I think it matters for that. It's hard if you're not part of the inside baseball to understand how these systems, I guess David was talking about Morgan Stanley, how much diligence they do. Part of what they do, Mike McGlone likes to talk about value at risk models,

but the value at risk model is really important because they want to understand what the drawdowns will be and so when they see that it didn't unravel it actually matters and you know to me i think it looks i like to disparage it as chart wiggles because we're still in a trading range but it is very relevant i wanted to go to you preston and before i was looking at the bullish sentiment we talked about bernstein a few spaces. I think it's been a few months now. They had a prediction of $150,000 target for Bitcoin in the cycle, and they doubled down. There's a story today that they're doubling down on this target. They haven't changed it.

It's still at $150,000 target expected by the end of 2025. So that's by Bernstein. I do want to go to Preston. Preston, on the legal front, we did talk. I wasn't on the space last week. We talked about CZ and I can't remember who was it, Roger Ver. And today I'm looking at the news and we see we've got the DOJ is accusing the son of the founder of Cartier, I think, of importing 100 kilograms of cocaine and laundering hundreds of millions of dollars. But the reason it matters, the reason we're mentioning it, is that they apparently used USDT through over-the-counter transactions for the laundering of the money.

And so that's one story on the legal front. And there's one other I'll read. It's a bit unrelated, so I'll read it in a bit. But it's going to give us an overview, your thoughts. I know you've discussed it in a previous space, but since I wasn't there, I want to get your thoughts on the ruling when it comes to CZ. CZ, I think, is going to be in jail for about four months preston if i'm correct and and obviously roger veer being targeted for tax evasion um your thoughts on this too would

you expect to see more similar uh uh similar action by authority yeah so in cz's case i think the the general opinion among practitioners is that he probably provided some pretty considerable assistance to the United States in terms of counterterrorism issues. And, you know, it has been undertaking remediation, allegedly for some time. So I think I think the thinking there is that CZ probably cooperated and's that explains the low sentence. In terms of the in terms of Roger Veer, that's one of those situations, it's a weird situation that sometimes you see with radical libertarians, of which I count myself as one, but sometimes what happens is people dislike the government so much that they engage in stupid behavior, which attracts the attention of the government and makes the situation worse than before. And in Roger's case, having read the pleadings, it seems that that's exactly what happened.

There would have been no reason for him to have declared, or excuse me, to have paid taxes at that time on his Bitcoin holdings. He could have just sat there. He could have moved to Puerto Rico. He could have, you know, there are a bunch of tax optimizing strategies he could have undertaken at that point to ensure that his tax haul was minimized on the Bitcoins he held at the time. He didn't do that. What he did instead is he expatriated. And when you expatriate, you have to file for expatriation. You have to pay an expatriation tax when you're on your way out.

It's a charge on the net value of your assets. And then in addition to that, you need to file for 10 years subsequent with the IRS. And so the allegation is that he allegedly concealed some of his net worth or a fairly significant chunk of his net worth and thereby lied on those filings to the IRS. So I think that he was poorly advised at the time, to be honest with you. It seems that there's some hint that the lawyers didn't advise him correctly. There's also some hint that maybe he wanted the lawyers to advise him incorrectly. But really, it's, you know, looking at it in hindsight, it's the kind of situation which really would have been

totally avoidable. I don't think it's a general application in crypto, because generally speaking, these expatriation incidents are very, very infrequent. You only have a few thousand of them happening per year in the United States. The big thing that actually happened was that Robinhood announced that they'd received a Wells notice from the SEC. And that was this morning. So we don't know a whole lot about that, except that I suspect it's probably around their status as an alleged unregistered clearing agency. And the SEC has been on the warpath, right, in recent months, going after exchanges licenses you hold, no matter how you choose to administer a crypto business that exchanges crypto assets in the United States, they're going to come after you anyway. Robinhood delisted every single asset on its platform, which was accused, which the SEC alleged was a security and other

filings against, for example, Binance and Coinbase. They had a broker dealer license. So it's this kind of, and I have a tweet up there that i just put up and sort of uni swap said you know oh well we don't exchange anything right the sec says well you're an exchange coinbase goes okay we're an exchange and the sec goes no no no actually you're a broker dealer now robin hood's like well we're a broker dealer and the sec said no you're a clearing agency agency. So they're trying to get, because of the nature of crypto and how crypto is custodied in particular, in that you're not having all these securities being custodied by a third party like DTC. They're going after exchanges for basically doing the responsible thing and making sure that crypto is well custodied and under their control for their users who are using the exchanges. And they're saying that that violates various provisions of the Exchange Act. Now, what that tells me, honestly, is that the

Exchange Act is non-compatible with cryptocurrency business, that every other country in the world that's managed to figure out how to do crypto, in particular, the United Kingdom, is doing it right, which is that they regulate this stuff as a money transmitter with some financial promotions, protections for consumers to make sure they're not being marketed to inappropriately by crypto companies. And that's the way we should be doing it here. So that's the view from 30,000 feet. Not that it's just- But would you say, based on that view, would you say, and I'm going to oversimplify, but

is it a battle against crypto, the SEC against crypto, or is the SEC against custody? That's a question number one. And question number two, how much of an impact do you think it could have as they continue on their warpath? My honest opinion is that the SEC is trying to communicate to the industry, drop dead. There is no other reasonable interpretation of their current enforcement campaign other than the fact that they if you are operating a business in the united states and you trade spot crypto they want you gone they have not shown us a pathway which is viable right for any of these exchanges to actually operate their businesses in a compliant fashion they haven't said listen here's the form you need to fill out here's the

registration that you need to make it's come in and register right okay well what are we registering as right are you going to approve it and they just don't have any answers to that because now we have different entities that are registered with different government agencies in different capacities all getting enforced against by the sec because the sec just says well it doesn't matter that uh and really but really at the end of the day they're trying to say if you are they're trying to say that it should be impossible to operate a crypto business that exchanges crypto assets in the United States. I can't think of a company. How much power do you think they have?

How much more could they do to the industry? How much impact would it have on the market? They'll keep doing this as long as the executive branch has personnel in there that allow people to do it. To be blunt, the only way that this stops is if Trump wins the election. Okay. And then you're getting your thoughts, Preston. I know we usually discuss legal matters, but you've been – you had pretty good opinions on the markets as well in general.

Your thoughts on – and Dave earlier. And then we'll go to Silver. Yeah, no, I don't have too many thoughts on the market. I haven't been doing any trading recently. I've just been sitting on my hands and huddling. You haven't been flipping NFTs since when? Let's go to Silver. Sorry, that's the other lawyer that we get on stage.

He's always got a different PFP every week. Let's go to David Silva. First of all, I apologize for being yet another David on the stage today. I mean, it's just way too many Davids today. So I think that's what's really crazy and what Preston kind of just touched on is what we're looking at is what I call the incumbent privilege. Because what we're looking at is for some reason, and we got to remember what people that surround us are in somewhat of a vacuum of supporting crypto, is the administration, and this goes, and this is why Preston just said the only way this changes is if Trump wins,

has decided that attacking crypto right now, because the Wells notice isn't all that important, it's just a final step that the SEC has to take, that they give notice to someone like Robinhood, we are investigating you, we're about to sue you, write a letter saying why we're wrong, and then we're going to sue you anyway, that they've decided this is an election issue that is a winning election issue for Biden. And that's really weird because Biden's been desperately trying to get younger voters. And you would think that Biden's team would think that this is an easy win for younger voters if they were

nicer and worked better with crypto companies. But for whatever reason, the administration has taken the exact opposite approach here in continuing to attack the crypto companies. And what's really, really weird here is the SEC and the amount of allocation of resources in the last two, three years, whether it be, you know, Uniswap, Metamask, recently Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, a little bit further back, that they're putting all of these resources of the SEC to go after the crypto companies. And Gensler is not doing this because Gensler thinks this is the only place the resources of the SEC should be. This is a political calculation. So I do agree it changes if Trump comes in, especially who Trump surrounds himself. I would think if Vivek comes in as his VP

or others, we'll see bigger changes. But it's not like Trump was so pro-crypto the first time. But what Trump has done differently recently is he's trying to show himself as the man of the people, going after younger voters. And by going after younger voters, he's becoming slightly more pro-crypto. And I do agree that it's going to be a election shift that we're going to see, that the younger people are going to pick which issues are most important to them. And right now, it seems that the powers that be or the incumbent privilege believe that attacking crypto is good to get more voters from younger people or people who are going to vote. And I just find that very odd because as much as I'm outside and disagree with a lot of

people on these panels because I'm more pro-government and pro-regulation, the overall attack here just seems unjustified and odd, given the current circumstances of what's going on in the world. And moving away, unless you have something to add, Preston, I want to go back to the markets in general. Dave or Jeff or David, we haven't discussed the altcoin market now. We're just going through the agenda. Altcoins, and I know we're moving away from the legal discussion, David and Preston, but alts have bounced back 20, something in the comments people were asking, they've bounced back 20 to 40% from the lows, while Bitcoin did at 15%.

So are we seeing a resurgence of alts? Have we seen kind of the worst of it, in your opinion, guys? I know you don't cover alts as deeply as some of our other guests, but I thought I'd give it a shot. Well, I mean, we're certainly seeing, you know, recoveries in some. You know, obviously Solana has done well, which is fascinating if you consider the fact that most people would say that Bitcoin dropped this morning because of the Robinhood news. And one would have thought that that would have impacted alts more. But at the end of the day, I think that it's really just noise.

And as money, you know, we continue to see this sort of pattern and aren't surprised as the Bitcoin market, you know, basically, what's the right word? Stabilized. I mean, you know, back into the trading range that it's been. Then the people in the rest of the world are like, oh, OK, fine. So let's go back to investing in what we think makes sense again. You know, it's always this paralyzing fear that people think the gig is up. And then when that doesn't happen, then they deploy their money where they think the best returns are. Jeff, anything else to add on that? Yeah, I think that it's early, but there are some hopeful signs.

I think there are different narratives, of course, during all coin markets. And I had guessed that one of the strongest themes to have emerged this year would have been around Bitcoin layer two. Of course, they've done actually quite well year to date. I think Stacks is up something close to 80 plus percent. Those have been lagging a little bit i think stacks the last time i checked was up maybe about uh 10 or so um you mean lagging lagging as in the recent recovery over the last few days lagging in the past few

lagging relative to all their all coins like the renders of the world that's up like you know already 30 or so in the first week of May. So the themes around AI identity, things of that nature still, I think is fairly memetic. And people do find those to be reflexive assets. And it does introduce some ways to capture upside convexity. Near is the other one, I think has actually been neck to neck to Solana so far this month, too. Maybe actually a little higher. Again, riding the AI theme. So I think there are narratives to pick.

I think the Bitcoin L2s are still probably underserved. I do think that there's more room on those. Any particular L2s that interest you, Jeff? You're welcome to mention projects. You know, I've just followed stacks with most interest in the Nakamoto release and those possibilities should capture

the combination of two tailwinds, right? The macro and the micro, especially opposed to having. So I like that. You know, some of these gaming aspects have come back with Fantasy Top recently this week, Frentech, all those things are interesting,

but I don't find them to be maybe nearly as institutionally interesting. So Stacks comes to mind for me, kind of the most interesting thing to date. Yeah, I'm just taking a note. I heard a few people have been telling me that Frentech has seen a resurgence. I know we've done spaces on Frentech before. I'm just messaging the team about it now. When Scott is back, maybe later this week, we'll have a bit of a space on Frentech and SocialFi. Maybe later.

Any other themes that interest you, then we're going to go to Byte. And by the way, Byte.ai, as a sponsor of the show, is actually going to be an interesting conversation considering you guys focus on citizen journalism and leveraging the blockchain for that, democratizing access to news. So it's going to be a fascinating conversation considering what I do. But before that, Jeff,

any other narratives that are really interesting for you? Like the common ones we always hear, you mentioned gaming, of course, you mentioned AI. You can't mention any bull market, or we can't mention the bull market, this cycle without mentioning those two narratives. Obviously Deepin, RWA, is it just the same four or is is there anything else liquid restaking has been gaining a lot of momentum as

well a lot of great projects launching in that in that uh in that section yeah i think that's that's the point that well i was going to mention that april right was a really tough month for alpha in general as people would say uh price action volatility uh trading volume all of them kind of on the decline but the one shining corner corner of alpha was actually in DeFi. And to your point, it was in the possibilities around the frontier of restaking rewards in liquid synthetics. And so if you have been thoughtful around potentially engaging on chain with protocols that touch eigenlayers AVSs,

there were opportunities to reap some rewards there. So things around EtherFi or Athena, Pendle, all those things are, I think, still quite interesting from the perspective of the sandbox that is always being a primitive in the DeFi space. Jeff, I was just on a call with a project, a liquid restaking project we're investing in that's launching soon. You mentioned EtherFi and Pendle. I'm not sure about Pendle.

We invested in EtherFi. So we're pretty heavily exposed to that sector. But can you just for the audience, I think it's important and very useful for them to understand what liquid restaking is. We've discussed it in previous spaces. But can you just explain it in as simple terms as possible, especially for people outside of crypto? What is liquid restating?

Yeah, absolutely. I'll try my best. So in the financial world that we know, generally, we understand that the assets we're trading have some productivity behind the fact that it just sits in your brokerage. And there's some capital efficiency that is being permitted by otherwise these assets that are owned by people. So for instance, you know, if you own Facebook, the stock in your Merrill Lynch brokerage, it might look like it's just sitting there. But in fact, it's not. It's actually doing a lot of other things behind the scenes, being maybe lent out, being maybe collateralized for different things, depending on how it's structured. But the point is, capital can be more efficient than just being owned as an asset owner. And I think because of the way that the

proof of stake consensus mechanism has emerged as a dominant way to build these blockchain layers, one of the cost centers is that it's very, very capital intensive, because you need to hold these assets to dictate the consensus mechanisms in a way that otherwise is not being useful. So these restaking derivatives have emerged as a way to imagine the possibility of rehypothecating. I think that's the best word I can kind of use. It's not perfect, but it is similar in the bridging of that concept, which is to bring more utility to otherwise assets that you might have staked. And it's actually just not doing anything besides just being staked. And imagine another layer of financial productivity that can dictate some flows towards productive utilities.

Did I do a decent job? Yeah, you did. You did. You did. What are the pros and cons? And again, for the audience, I think this is a very important concept to understand. It is gaining a lot of capital

flowing into that space. And it's a fascinating space as well. What are the pros and cons of it? Now, I do want to keep it brief and we'll go to Byte AI because I'm generally fascinated for that conversation. But just going to keep it brief.

What are the pros and cons? Some people are comparing it to the 08 financial crisis just increasing leverage within crypto now decentralized leverage and the other side is like you're adding more productivity adding more utility to those uh staked assets yeah i think those are all which you know it is because there's because they're sorry there's an ugly side to 08 that we all love to talk about there's a very positive side to what happened in 08 just went way way out of control but there's a positive side to to the liquidity um that kind of spiked up back then yep yep yep no i think um the the risks are in in intuitive for most in the ways that this anything on the frontier when it hasn't been battle tested uh can can be a little bit rough. One of the things that is always risky a little bit in crypto

is around how people think about liquidation towards these efforts and pricing. So once you are moving between different layers of execution and settlement, there's an unknowability as to what sometimes the price oracles may dictate towards in ways that can manifest and in ways that you wouldn't have anticipated. So I think price oracle risks are still kind of one of those things people have some concerns around. And as you move between layer twos or even bridging across others in an interoperable way, there's always those types of risks too, where people don't exactly know what the latency of these capitals are, right? You can't withdraw from staking as cleanly as you might think T plus zero. Everyone approaches it a little bit different. And you can imagine there

is some cascading effect that looks like 08, where prime brokers may have held discretionary lines of managing flows without there being a lot of transparency. The good news is, you know, there's transparency at least here, but it doesn't solve the friction of capital movement as efficiently as some of these folks may idealize. I agree. I'm glad you mentioned it. The main difference between this and what we saw in 08 would be the transparency aspect of it. 08 is that lack of that kind of everything happening behind closed doors was probably the main issue. It's like no one could understand the value of a lot of these assets

and where these assets were going. But let's go to Byte. Probably a good time for us to chat. I appreciate you sponsoring the show. But I had the president of Brazil, former president of Brazil on my show two days ago, and he's been censored to Brazil. He was President Bolsonaro. His account was suspended before MySpace. So all MySpaces in Brazil were censored. People in Brazil could not join MySpaces whenever I talked about Brazil unless they use a VPN. Obviously, a lot of people know about the censorship that's happening in

Brazil. But to see the former president who has the support of about half the country, Lévo Muhaydem, get censored where his account gets blocked and his internet gets blocked, he had to use Starlink to access the space and use one of his allies' accounts to join the space. So it was two days ago. And then yesterday, I had someone that people love to hate for many reasons, some good, some bad. And that's Nick Fuentes coming onto the show and Alex Jones and Andrew Tay and a lot of people that were banned.

And we had others come on Destiny and others come and debate them. But a lot of people that were censored by mainstream media come on my show. And that's in the last 48 hours. That's why I'm pretty fascinated to have the conversation is what do you do? And he said, democratize access to concise news intelligence. I think it's not, it's different to democratizing access to news, but I want to understand what do you mean by democratizing access to concise news intelligence? Because I think one area that I've barely talked about and that's the the the use case of blockchain and within journalism I consensus tried to do a lot in that in that space um and that was a while ago a bit

too early and no one's really done much since and until I saw you guys so we'd love to know more about bite what you guys do yeah fantastic thank you for um you know having us on board like it's a massive pleasure to be able to talk about biteITE and, you know, what we're building. It's refreshing to, you know, hear you guys touch upon, you know, I heard Jeff talking previously about Trump and, you know, in fact, him wanting a significant influence on the Fed, which at its core is meant to be, you know, this unbiased central bank. And it's funny because a lot of, you know, individuals and entities alike typically have their own agenda when it comes to propagating information to the public. So that's kind of where Byte has envisioned, you know, creating a crypto project whereby, you know, we

are at the core of unbiased information. We have both, you know, our XBot, which we've recently launched now, which creates this unbiased scoring system. Sorry, man. This is the big problem. Bias in the news. And people love to shit on mainstream media. I criticize them heavily, especially after I got the hit pieces. I saw that bias out of personal experience.

When I got attacked, there is bias. but that bias changes from journalist to journalist. And then people thought the solution was all right, citizen journalism, people like me kind of covering the news without any big boss telling me what to cover. But it's very – I try to be as unbiased as possible, pretty much impossible to be unbiased. But it's – most others – it's just human nature to be biased. So how do you solve that problem? Because you did did mention it twice but i just don't understand how you how you achieve that yeah so funny enough like look our um our unbiased scoring report is based on essentially language computation so how how people um will conceptualize putting together tweets, and it uses a very sort of simple system to detect bias in them tweets,

creating a score from zero up onto 10, being the sort of most biased. We've got simple sort of implementations, which we're going to build upon to make it much more concrete in the sense of allowing, you know, a vast amount of users to understand information, which they perhaps, you know, there could be a language barrier. English couldn't be their first language and they wanted to, you know, take in the information from an outlet and gain... So essentially, to oversimplify,

is that you leverage AI in a transparent manner to try to ensure the news is ranked in an unbiased way? Or did I misunderstand? Yeah, correct. So most definitely, yeah, that's an aspect of one of our product lines. We've also got our Telegram bot, which is one of the fastest AI-implemented Telegram bots, which uses tools such as routers, our premium package we've got with them, in addition to associated press to gain real-time information on global affairs.

Sorry to interrupt you, Menaka, because I'm just fascinated by the concept. And I really want to understand the solution because if you do have a solution, then yeah, I'll be even more interested. So the first solution is leveraging AI to kind of rank news. But then whatever data is input into the AI

will determine the bias because there's no AI out there that's not biased, at least for now. How do you prevent your AI to be from, if the language programming involved, not to be biased itself? Is that just through decentralizing the code itself so everyone could see how it functions and could try to spot those biases or how does it work? Yeah, so there's two parts of it. One, which you briefly touched upon. And then also in addition to the sources in which we're gaining that information from and building our language models. I believe it's fundamental to use both advanced decentralized language models in which we do. You know, we sort of leverage connections with Petals and other programs which are building in the space in a decentralized manner,

in addition to well-respected open-sourced code as well to gain that sort of clarity from being being you know unbiased in that sense okay so kind of your solution is looking at inputting the data from various sources so the way i try to do it is i try to it's actually a cool conversation like when i travel to cover the gaza war for example i'd get both sources i'd get Israeli sources and I'd get Palestinian sources and obviously the on one side people say hey the other sources or propaganda and vice versa so I'll try my best or we try to get both sources same thing when we cover the mutiny for example we got Russia we get oh sorry when we cover the Ukraine war we get sources in Ukraine sources

in Russia so is that essentially what you do you try to get sources from the kind of represent. Yeah, exactly. From both. Yeah. Well, from the entire planet, because when you're covering news, not both angles, not two angles, just so many angles and so many different issues. So try to offer it kind of. But then. So, OK. OK.

And then how but how those sources are interpreted and ranked is where the bias kicks in. How do you rank different sources? Cause that's where I struggle with. Yeah. So our new, um, ranking system sort of just launched an alpha, um,

that essentially looks at the language, um, English language in terms of how, how, uh, you know, a motive that is, um,

we prefer to sort of use, language which is uh to go off sort of language which is non um sort of non what's the word non emotive in a sense um creating a lower score uh generally what we're looking to do in the future is develop that language model continue to build upon it so that we can create you know a situation where whereby we're looking to do in the future is develop that language model, continue to build upon it so that we can create, you know, a situation where, whereby we're looking at language in terms of across the board with other sort of outlets and articles to make it more informed. Also, you know,

we're also touching upon looking into sort of researching other avenues, such as, you know visual representation so let's say for example uh you have an article about uh trump and he he's just won the election or so forth and you've got like a unsavory picture of him uh which is you know not not professional in a sense and we want to be able to have models which are able to detect that um and you know be able to point that out and score it based on that system as well uh so that's kind of where we're looking to to research into we're gonna we're gonna dig into your your um your token as well the utility there but then he said he's had a second product as well which is a telegram bot

that leverages ap associated press to get the news and share it in a group for people to read the news they'll how does it work exactly yeah so um with the telegram bot you can both you know add it to your unique telegram channel uh whereby you know it's one of the fastest if not the fastest um ai sort of model i've telegram but i've come across um whereby you know you can get information on global affairs across the globe um which is you know decentralized and unbiased in that sense um but you but which horses so where does that but where's that sorry man but what was your name yeah jonah jonah what what's the source of uh yeah the source of this news in the box because we use a lot of telegram bots as well for our news,

and we get it from all these different sources, which I'll sift through it. What are your sources, and how do you prevent misinformation and disinformation? Yeah, so the main two being routers and associated press. And the way we sort of go about it in terms of, you know, in a sense, you know, developing our language models, so to speak, we cross sort of use various platforms, such as previously mentioned, Petals,

which is a decentralized sort of research program with, you know, AI at the core. So we use a broad array of such in conjunction to produce unbiased results. Okay. So these are the two products. You've mentioned the ranking system for news and the second one is a Telegram bot to share news from various sources

and you've got different ways to try to be as objective as possible um is there any other products before we dig into okay where does the blockchain come in kind of understood it with the ai aspect but where does the token come in as well yeah so with our token it's essentially um our native token which you know has governance attributes to it as well. So our holders can determine where we use ad spend and so forth and the direction of the project as a whole.

Can the DAO determine the source of the news and how the ranking system works or does it go to that extent? Not at this current point but it is it is an area we have been sort of looking into to that's that's what makes it interesting like if the audience can decide like one thing we do and we do in a very archaic way is that we have the also when i'm doing a space on a topic the audience tells me they verify the news they tell me what news they believe again the audience will have

their own biases depending who's listening but i try you know for example when i'm covering the guys of war there's not many people in palestine that will be listening because their connection is not working or when we're covering uh the brazilian censorship a lot of people in brazil couldn't even enter without a vpn so i have to take these into consideration um but what we do is we use the audience to kind of help us determine what news they consider to be valid and to kind of help us debunk some news as well, especially when it's breaking news story. So if you can add a functionality where your token holders can actually determine on how the Telegram bot kind of sources information and what it looks for how the ai ranking system works that would make it a lot more interesting than just the token holder being able to just determine where the ad spend for byte goes just very limited um very limited decentralization there yeah look so we we are looking to you know broaden in terms of what what we offer to our

holders um at this current point in time, we are focusing predominantly on the language model and developing our AI in a fashion where the product speaks for itself. And then we can implement new benefits to our holders, whereby it can become much more of an immersive experience where they can collaborate with us to help you know combat unbiased information so to speak and but it definitely is a work in pro progress and we are you know receiving positive sort of

feedback from our community communities and we feel like you know it's only it's only respectable to give back to them in in a sense and let them be part of our journey as we continue to build build out yeah there's a there's a lot of use cases i had someone come to me um i won't share too much out of confidentiality but they came to me a pretty reputable person in the news world and they came to me they wanted to talk token remember the utility they had in mind and try to keep it a bit vague for out of respect to them but they came to me they had a an idea of of leveraging the token as a way for the journalists for citizen journalists to be able to report on news share that news you're on the ip um and be able to share that news so i said there's a breaking news event they get notified on some sort of app or email or text

and then they cover that news so this So that's one aspect of utility. The other one I've talked about, the consensus one, where I think it was the DAO token holders could determine which journalists get access to their platform. It was fascinating. I can't remember the name of the consensus project from a few years ago. I've mentioned it once or twice, but you should look into that utility. Because what you do is you got to leverage the decentralized aspect of your token of your of your of bite is not to It's to be able to kind of decentralize truth or what is truth So the way X is doing the way Elon's doing it is by leveraging community notes

Tell up the users to determine or to be able to correct any quote-unquote misinformation Even that was abused and that is being, and they're still trying to fix it. It's probably the best level of decentralization we've seen in the verification of truth or determination of what is truth. But you've got an opportunity leveraging blockchain to do that on a much better, more efficient scale through a token. Yeah, most definitely. Like, yeah, as you're saying like at its core collaboration is what's going to move this forward i believe you know highlighting um a whole array of different you know journalists and presenting perhaps even you know having a score score based system whereby

you know your token holders can can um you know pick pick a pool pool of the journalists in which they would like to receive information from. It's definitely an angle where we are open to exploring and definitely do want to explore because we do see us aligning well with what we're trying to build in terms of our ethos and achieving a truly decentralized network which you know is building upon that and I feel like that's the direction we are taking we do have some of the leading for makers helping build out the projects as well. Yeah how long have you guys been around for we'll do another maybe a couple of questions but how long have you guys been around for um we've been been had this idea for over two years um uh but yeah so sort of putting together a lot of the practices only recently within the last let's say six months or so and how long how much

have you guys raised um at the moment um we've raised um it's internally um more or less bootstrapping the business. How much have you spent on the business so far? In terms of marketing initiatives, could get the figures, but yeah, we kind of don't like to disclose too much of that information. I'm looking at your project listed It listed back in this year. It's not too long ago. Fascinating. I really like your concept. What would interest me more if we

see other forms, if you find ways to decentralize the verification of truth. I think this is, if someone fixes this problem to that level and if you guys do it and allow token holders to have more say. If you decentralize more aspect of Byte, and I know that's the process,

so we'll get time to get there, but if you get there, it'd be something I'm personally be very interested in because I, yeah, like as we get bigger yourself in covering what we cover, and I'm just trying to find more and more solution to try to remain as unbiased as possible, which is very difficult to do as a person. Because right now, that unbiased nature of what we do and that verification of truth is still centralized.

Obviously, I'm the one calling the shots, but that needs to become more decentralized for us to be truly unbiased or as close to being unbiased as possible. So yeah, I think you've got an opportunity to fix that problem. I hope you guys do. I appreciate it.

I appreciate you coming on the show. I thought you'd enjoy this conversation. But for anyone that wants to check out Byte.ai, they're on stage. Check them out. They do have the token live for a couple of months now. It's a bootstrap project. They're still building it out. But there is a lot of potential if they manage to pull it off.

So if you enjoyed the interview, if you've got more questions for them, definitely hit them up. And anyone that's got any interest in decentralized journalism, I think first speak to me, but also more importantly, have a chat to the Byte AI team. I think it'd be good back and forth. But Jonah, I appreciate you coming on the show, man.

It was a good discussion. Likewise. All right, take care. All right, bro. Thanks a lot, man. Thanks a lot, everyone. We'll see you again tomorrow. I don't know if Scott will be on the beach,

but it should be another good discussion. I'll make sure my internet doesn't cut out. Thanks a lot, everyone. All right, take care. See you guys.