The Wolf Of All Streets - BTC Prehalving Dump Cancelled! This Time Is Different | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: October 18, 2023

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How are you? How are you doing, man? Still lacking sleep or catching up? I don't know, man. You're lacking sleep. I'm not doing my biohacking. I'm actually in my house now. So you won't hear all that background noise. I'm going to try to sneak in while doing the show. And that means for me to skip biohacking means my life is in shambles. I'm doing that but with sleep. That war is just getting weirder and uglier. It's just crazy days. Yeah, it seems even more so than potentially in the past.

It feels like it's really, really, really hard to vet what's true, what's propaganda, what's really happening. It's impossible. It's impossible. It's impossible and it's impossible it's impossible and um i think that there's more consensus like just general emotional attachment obviously to either side that's driving that aggressively so i think really really tough job you're trying to do yeah and the market's actually impossible to understand this without taking on a certain lens, I think.

That's the problem, you know. And then you have that lens. But the markets, I like today's title, pre-having dump cancelled. Who came up with that title? I think it was the team. We have a team, sir. They work. We sleep.

They work, sir. Who sleeps? What is that? That's a pretty cool title. I'm supposed to go see Gareth tomorrow, but that's in jeopardy with my daughter, unfortunately, but I'm actually supposed to go down and hang out with Gareth

at his office at his studio tomorrow. Yeah, Gareth, it's been a while. How cool how are you hey i'm doing well guys how are you guys hanging in there good man good day if you it would be a lot better if you confirm that the pre-harving dump has been officially canceled we're waiting for that official confirmation from you hold on hold on i i did i did a show today i did a show today and i said look it's a tug of war between the between the pre-harvest. You've got to pick your fighting. Either you believe in the halving cycle, which I think we should talk about today, the halving cycle narrative, and we'll talk've got to make a decision which one you believe in. And I think that's what we should spend our time about today is talking about the halving cycle, the merits of the halving cycle, and then comparing that to the ETF

thesis for a bull market, and then kind of like decide which side of the fence do you want to be on? Man, I believe you can. I love that conversation because i will aggressively take the opinion that you can believe in both i disagree that you have to choose one or the other but we can get into that not really because the halving cycle if you believe the halving cycle narrative then you believe that there's going to be a 20 to 30 percent dump before we pump if you believe in if you believe in the etf narrative you believe that there's a maximum of 84 days for the ETF to be approved. And then, you know, you kind of imagine that in the next 84 days,

there's no reason for 20 to 30% dump if you think that the numbers are going to be in where they're going to be. And I did a show today, I broke down how the numbers get to $75,000 a Bitcoin. It's a very conservative estimate if the numbers are there. We can spend this space talking about it. dollars of bitcoin it's a very conservative estimate um if the numbers and we can we can

spend this this uh spaces talking about it um yeah mario i must ask you a question you did a you've done a lot of coverage around this war and yesterday we had a very very very unfortunate incident i don't really care what side of the fence that you sit on, but I think the bombing of a hospital where there's sick kids and families and stuff like that is an absolute, absolute, absolute disaster. Now, my question to you is having hosted spaces

and being on both sides, who do you believe bombed the hospital? Was it an Israeli attack? Was it a FAL Hamas rocket? Or was it something completely different? I have no, as I said yesterday, you can't know until you see the data today. But I just woke up two hours ago.

I haven't been able to look at the data. There's apparently US intel that says it's not Israel. So I'm guessing they're implying it's the Islamic Republic. There is some footage that Israel released that the hospital itself wasn't bombed. It was the parking lot next to it. I haven't gone through it. This is me briefly looking at the things that my team posted on my account. And there's also an analysis.

The only thing I do is there's an analysis last night. The last one we posted was geolocation experts and that that used a video to point out that it was a misfired rocket and then we've got another the other side of the story of uh two other analysis reports that show that the size of the crater just shows it's a big bomb that hamas doesn't have or islamic republic doesn't have so like conflicting reports i have no idea but it's just tragic it's just uh it was a sad day yes tragic you know you know it's just tragic. It's just, it was a sad day. You know, it's also absolutely tragic is that the problem is that a lot of the sources, the new sources we're getting are, I think the social media is becoming the battleground for the narrative. And the problem with social media becoming the battleground for the narrative is

that you're getting extremes. So, you know, social media works in extremes and unfortunately what you're getting is you're getting extreme on the one side and extreme on the other side and so you it's very difficult to understand what's actually going on and i'll give you like you know like i listen sometimes to your spaces and then i'll talk to to suleiman spaces and i mean that's extreme like you know for sure we're listening to spaces hosted by suleiman that that's completely completely uncredible, completely, completely, completely the bias, trying to create narratives of genocide. Now, I'm not saying he's whether he's, you know, whether they're right or wrong. I'm just saying, the problem is that you've got these extremes. And for the average person, the problem is that you're going to fall into one echo chamber of these extremes.

Yeah, I try my best to be – on a personal level, I'm extremely objective about everything. Like I don't – any topic in the world, I rarely have an opinion. I've been raised that way. But from other spaces, of course, there's extremes on both sides. I haven't listened to any other space because I'm just too busy doing my own. And I try to walk that line very carefully. And I know I walk it carefully when both sides criticize me. So I get criticized by obviously the pro-Palestinian side for being biased and obviously the pro-Israeli side for being biased.

So when both sides criticize me, I'm like, cool, I'm doing something right. Now, when one side praises me and the other side criticizes me, that's when I start worrying that I'm not being objective. So I think with this one, I've been criticized by both sides pretty equally. So I'm happy with the results. And this is one of the most polarizing topics when it comes to geopolitics. So it's something I've avoided covering. I barely covered maybe twice before this war when there were protests. I think there were clashes in Gaza, and there was a few rockets to Lebanon as well. That was a few months ago. It's like the last

time we covered it, and it was one of the most difficult spaces. And now with this war and the risks involved, I don't know if it's unrelated to crypto in most cases, but at the same time, if it does spread to Lebanon, this makes it extremely concerning from a global perspective. If it doesn't, that means it will be contained to the current borders. And then to link it to crypto, I know I saw the whole narrative of flight to safety that Larry Fink talked about yesterday, and he referenced the war among other things um so it'll be fascinating to see whether events like this end up being a positive a net positive or a net negative when it comes to crypto maybe a question i can ask to you now um what how do wars like this instability like this how does that impact the market in your opinion is it a risk asset type impact or is it a flight safety

impact i'm starting to get very worried about the United States, to be honest. I mean, look, I think they've taken a side. They've clearly taken a side in this battle, in this war, and sided very much with Israel. They've

sided very much with Ukraine. There is another, you know, Russia, which has taken the other side in Russia, which has taken the other side, China, which has taken the other side. It's clear that the tensions in the Middle East are causing tensions all around the world. Putin's using this as a weapon.

He's making this a US-Russia, US versus Russia-China situation. I don't know. You see that rates are going up in the US.s like crazy um i think the 10 the 10 years 4.8 again 4.8 4.9 almost on the on the 10 year you've got u.s debt spiraling out of control and you've now got them fighting wars on multiple fronts which will require money i mean ukraine's been getting 20 billion 10 billion

now there's and there's a hundred billion um on the table israel's you know potentially going to get its first 10 billion i think it's not it's going to be the first of of many i just don't see how the u.s continues this on interest rates that that keep going up and potentially keep increasing. So, like, I know that the U.S. is probably the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry, but I'm starting to get a little bit concerned about where the U.S. is. And given the fact that they've got such incoherent leadership, like they've got no leadership. You need a very strong leader in a time like this where you're multiple wars and multiple fronts um and i think

that you know when you've got joe biden who's struggling to put a sentence together who's who you know has to take deep breaths before he talks i don't know if that's i don't know i don't know if that if that's if that's the best place to be. Yeah, I'm bullish when it comes to the US, but obviously I could be wrong. I still think that the system is working pretty well. We are seeing democracy in action, and democracy is very, very, very imperfect. And we like to preach decentralization. Well, this is a decentralized political system.

While it might look slow slow it might look clunky it's still relatively decentralized and i uh you know i prefer a system like that than a system like let's say china for example which is working really well right now but that level of centralization scares me in the long term that's my two cents on it um and when it comes to the regulatory landscape in in the u.s again and and relating to crypto again um we're saying we're seeing what centralized powers does and that's obviously gary gensler and the sec but we're also seeing the democratic democratic system the court system um play its role and and and push back against the. And we've seen a few wins recently. And I'm not really as bearish as many people are

about the US landscape when it comes to crypto, even though I'm based in Dubai. So I'm more bullish than you, Ran, but obviously I could end up with egg on my face. Actually, before we go to the panel, where does Scott stand on this? Not only guys, out of us three. Out of us three, we've got one in Dubai, one in South Africa,

telling you, Scott, what we think of the U.S. Where are you? Are you in the middle? More bearish? More bullish? I pinged Gareth privately while you guys were talking and said, get me out of here, sarcastically. But these conversations make me cringe because, you know, it's really hard to voice an opinion without

obviously getting marginally attacked. I can tell you this, when you guys were talking about the war, and you can tell it in my tweets, I long for a time when we used to discuss what we thought were facts and not the opinions of the quote unquote two sides, as you discussed. I think that the velocity of information, the ability to utilize that, weaponize that information has made it effectively impossible to discern what is a fact and what's true. And going into the election, if we want to talk about the United States, I literally can't imagine the deep fakes and fake news and how that's going to proliferate and affect the election moving forward. I think we're in almost a post fact world. And I find it really disturbing, you know, as powerful and I think is having this like nonstop information

always in our face, what's happening with the war is like my now cautious approach is like I'm just going to wait 24 hours to comment on anything until it actually settles. And that's obviously not something you can do when you just listen to the news for an hour and then you could detach because you went home and there was no social media and there was no phone and no computer and no internet, nobody bothering you. And you could actually just decompress. I find the velocity of information and the amount that's happening to be impossible to parse. And so then that, I think, carries on to the analysis of markets and what's happening with the United States. I'm very bullish on the United States. I don't think I'm in the middle. I think that, yes, we have a reckoning coming economically, but that, you know, if the dollar falls, it's the

last to fall, right? If we have major problems with the dollar, then everything else has gone first, in my humble opinion. So nobody should be cheering for that. But, you know, I think that Mario's point was correct. As imperfect as our democracy is, it's probably the best example that we have still. And I think that it's very natural in these massive pendulum swings to get disillusioned and think that it's over and everything's dying, going to zero. Anyone who's ever traded or been in markets knows that feeling. It's the same for everything. And I think that the pendulum has just swung way too far in one direction on basically

all things America. And naturally, it's going to come back and things will become more rational and normal again. So you've got Sally Mayweather, Ed account and it says, what would you do if you had $100 billion? And then you've got like a Joe Biden when was the United States not beholden to the war machine, right? I'm not saying that that's a good thing, but this is not like everybody, you know, I think there's a lot of younger people in crypto, obviously, so you see their takes. And I think there's always a bias towards, you know, recency bias. But I just don't see, you know, I'm only 46. But I don't see

anything particularly new here that we haven't seen over and over and over again before. And it's like people forget all of the wars of the past and situations and the money printing. Yeah, I think that we'll find our way through it. But I don't think like we also need to be hyperbolic and hyper analyze every single thing as if it's the end of the world which i think has become the tendency because everybody's so on edge and anxious as a result of you know 24 7 connection and and frankly just being inundated with fake news yeah i'd go to guys i want to go to gareth by the way the us has been um you know the the dollar's been dying for like decades since i was a kid um so just to literally there's never been a time in my life where the dollar had just... Exactly, exactly.

Imminently. Exactly. And I'm 46 years old. So let's go to the panel. Lloyd, I know you've been a lot of... Before going to Gareth, I'll go to Lloyd because I know I've seen you in a lot of the spaces. You've been listening to things. And I want to get your thoughts on the discussion.

I kind of linking it to crypto. What does that mean for crypto from a flight to safety type perspective? Is that going to happen as the world gets more and more unstable and then kind of linking it to the regulatory landscape here in the US? Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of it's going to play out a lot slower and longer than anyone really thinks. And there's a lot of truth to that, right? It's like, you don't want to be an Austrian economist who's eventually right

after they die. Right. So, I mean, there's, there's a reckoning somewhere and it's, and there isn't some currency that's like laughing and it's Austrian because it's got great tokenomics, you know, it's like the whole thing goes down together. And then the hope I think for, for people is that once the powers that be have destroyed good money, well, well now we have something else to jump off to. And then the hope I think for people is that once the powers that be have destroyed good money, well, now we have something else to jump off to. But that doesn't mean that that's going to look very good. And I think the US is pretty well poised, you know, in terms of intellectual

firepower and all that good stuff to, you know, to do pretty well in a great reset versus anywhere else. So I'm definitely bullish on the States. But what I did, what I want to say about the other, so I did listen to a lot of your spaces about the conflict and I genuinely think it's actually hard. And I like, so I apply, basically apply Hanlon's razor to the whole thing. And I find that everyone has to, it's almost impossible to learn about the conflict without getting that information from some lens. And then once you're in that rabbit hole, very hard to get out. So like if you were on, if you actually had a task of, you know, intellectually summarizing the whole thing and, you know,

let's say coming up with a solution, you would have to be doing that for years and have a PhD. And like the way that people sort of get a summary overnight or in a couple hours or whatever it is, and then have a strong opinion, it's tough.'s tough i don't blame them right and so it's hard to be neutral the whole world is getting as forming an opinion and that's a scary time what so my parents are um american and i'm canadian so what's interesting about that perspective i think is that they got me really hooked on the core values and sort of the first principles and then as a child and then as i grew up watching it play out from a distance i was very confused right like i was like well

that's not you know we argued about the iraq war when they thought it was a great idea you know so and what's interesting to me now is i had an idea back then that the right liked war more but now it's like oh wait now it's the left with ukraine but now it's going to be the right with israel and like the only thing i come out knowing is that the right and the you know red and blue disagree but i don't know what their core principles anymore are and that's why i think things are so in flux people are sort of picking things up based on what they you know hear and they're like oh yeah i like that idea but no one's really even going back to the first principles and we're so high up it's so far from ground that I don't even know what it looks like coming down from there.

I think somebody tweeted at me yesterday, I can never tell if you're a Democrat or Republican, Scott. And I was like, good, because I'm neither. I'm registered unaffiliated. Well, Balaji calls us gray. It's like tech. We just care about building stuff and some fiscal libertarian concepts as well. But it's the principles of the internet, which are like open source and all sorts of things. I'm not going to paraphrase him, but he sees it as red versus blue. And then sort of gray got tossed out of blue when they went after Elon and destroyed Silicon Valley. And now Gray's sort of on its own, sitting with a cool trillion, not sure. Yeah, I speak with him quite frequently, and he definitely has an impact on my views on these things. I think he's a brilliant speaker. And Mario, I mean, maybe to sort of transition towards the topic, I know that we're going to

talk about, obviously, the actual market and the market cycle. But I think since we ended up in this global conversation and war and talking about what's going to happen, I think that's important. And maybe Jason, you probably have some thoughts on this. But for those who obviously are Bitcoin believers, not those who are maybe just trading the asset or looking for profit, but this is the first time in history you could argue that there is a way to opt out of this system potentially. It doesn't mean that it will come to fruition. It doesn't mean that we'll be living on a global Bitcoin standard anytime in our lifetimes, if anytime at all. But I do think that it's important to remind ourselves of the core ethos of why we are having a crypto town hall or talking about Bitcoin

in the first place, because it is a way for many people, not for everybody, right, to sort of at least take a piece of what they have and put it into this alternative asset class, another market, a place where they at least feel like whether it comes to fruition, the narratives are not, but where they feel like they have the ability to opt out of this system to control their own destiny. And to maybe just not be a part of everything that's happening in the world to some degree. Jason, I mean, I see your hearting. And I know you would agree. But I think that, like I said, I don't know that all of that will come to fruition. There's still narratives, it's still early, we're still young in this but that is at

least partially why most people i i would imagine who are listening are here all right jason and i'll go to gareth just to kind of link it to the market okay man yeah well just to to to sort of uh follow up on that i mean you're absolutely right in terms of how early we are and And it is no more than an option. And it is the reason why people like myself are so excited about this and spend so much time educating people on it. It is only an option. It could be years. It could be decades.

But to the point of what you said earlier about the state of the U.S. economy and the macro outlook, I mean, I'm very, very bear on on that whole idea and that model and where we're sitting at the moment so the fact that we have an option even is a lifeline for for many many people and um myself included and i think that is the part of this that will build over time and that was the only point i just wanted to make quickly because i know you've got a whole bunch of questions you want to get through yeah i do want to go to make quickly, because I know you've got a whole bunch of questions you want to get through. Yeah, I do want to go to the Gareth, you know, you've always been on the space giving us market updates. Obviously, I missed last week. So you want to get your thoughts on last 48 hours, but be good to get a more general update on what we saw last week, and the market over the last 48 hours, especially since the ETF news?

Yeah, absolutely. So the first thing that I'm seeing, and I'll just go start kind of right from this current point, is that the 10-year yield has just taken out the previous high made about 10 days ago. And we're seeing that now at, we're just about at 4.9%. And on cue, this little spike that we've seen over the last 20 minutes, the S&P 500 has started to come down pretty sharply, and is now, you know, into pretty negative territory, about three quarters of a percent drop. Now, in terms of crypto, you know, crypto, again, is in a world of its own, meaning that we're not really seeing the reaction, you know, it's not a risk asset, it's not really a safe haven. I really think that the crypto markets are now beholden to this concept of the spot ETF changing everything for Bitcoin. And again, you can see it very clearly. Look at what happened on the rumor a couple of days ago, or the fake news, I should say, and how it reacted. And then since then, we've had,

you know, dollar up, dollar down, yields up, yields down, and Bitcoin hasn't really moved much. So I think for me, it's, you know, you still stay with a positive view on that. I know you guys were talking about was it was the pre having dip canceled, I would say potentially it is, but that doesn't mean we're returning to a bull market. And I would also offer the thought process that this market could throw everyone for a loop. And we could see, you know, maybe not a dip pre-halving, but maybe after the halving a dip. And that could really whip everyone out of this trade. I think we usually get a 20% to 25% dip sometime after the halving, right? Ben Callen was talking

about yesterday. I'm not looking at a chart right now, but that's not uncommon because people realize that the halving ends up not being a fundamental event for a few months after it happens, right? The minute the halving happens, nothing fundamentally changes. The supply changes. That takes time, obviously, to be built in. Yeah. And also there's like a tendency for people to load up ahead of the halving, anticipating that pop. And then when it happens and there's kind of like this letdown period, it's kind of a sell the news event initially, right? I mean, I agree with you that the halving is like a fundamental change,

which is over time, it absolutely is a benefit. But there's this kind of mental side to the crypto markets where people like expect the results instantaneously. Maybe we've all been conned into that because of like the Pepes and these different massive moves in a couple of days. But it really does take a long time to see the fundamentals kind of take

hold. Scott, can I ask you a quick question? Ryan, just a quick question for you and Scott. If you want to compare this to the last halving that we had, if it was identical, what can we expect over the next 12 months, guys? You want to go ahead, Ryan? I mean, if the halving is identical, we're going to get a 30% drop

between now and the halving, and then we're going to get a breakup, and then we're going to hit all-time highs one year after the halving, if they're identical. But I have a big problem. I have a big problem with this, with the halving thesis.

And the biggest problem that I have with the halving thesis is we've only got two sets of data. We've got 2015 and we've got 2019 that's the two sets of data now the one set of data we've got is 2015 and if you're around in 2015 you'll know that it wasn't a real market there wasn't there weren't many changes was very difficult to buy it was just the launch of coins etc and i don't know how you can use that data on a market that is much more perfect really quick to be clear that would be the third example because we have the having in 16 and 20 so the cycle of 15 would be the having from 2012 and i agree that's completely irrelevant well no i'm

saying i'm saying talking about the pre-harving year so the pre-harving year you've got 15 all right before having to right yes that that makes perfect sense. So we only have two data sets of which one we know is unreliable. Because we know that you can't... I was around in 2015. There was no real market. There was no real altcoin market. It was very difficult to buy. Most of the trades were happening OTC.

The market was completely illiquid. That's not a market. That's not a market. So to me, when people base everything around the halving, That's not a market. That's not a market. So to me, when people base everything around the halving, guys, you have one piece of data. You literally have one piece of data, which is 2019. And you're saying, we're going to copy 2019 exactly. And that's the part that worries me.

I think that's fair. And that's definitely worth noting. I don't necessarily disagree Mario to the question of what would you expect? I mean, you would basically expect that we kind of get a higher low at some point, but listen, we, you know, we had the, I'm looking at the chart right now. Obviously the low is in around 15,800, something like that. We rose all the way to 25. Then we did come back down to 19.5. So if you consider that as that drop before the pre-halving, you could kind of have it both ways here, which was the point that I was going to make before. We have seen price go up relatively far, all the way to 31, down to 25. That was what, over a 20% drop right there. Those could also

be considered the pre-halving dump. So it's hard when you're doing this analysis to dig into exactly when or where that would happen. But I think the consensus generally that we were talking about is at some point, you get one more major shakeout. Altcoins seem to be indicating that could happen, as Ben Cowan said. And then you kind of start to rise slowly into the halving. Now, the last cycle, even to Rand's point, is the major data set coming into the third halving there. And that had COVID, right, which gave the higher low. So you had the moves down to around 3000, all the way up to 14,000, and then dropped back below 4000. Right on the, you know, the COVID March 12, everybody remembers,

of course. And if we're being intellectually honest, that was largely driven by a effectively broken liquidation engine on BitMEX, and they had to literally turn the exchange off to stop it going from going to zero on that exchange because it was firing liquidation and sell orders into an empty order book. So a lot of that was also a result of inefficiencies in the actual platforms in the market. So I guess we should probably dig into the actual topic at hand, which is, is this pre-halving dump canceled? And clearly you're kind of outside the narrative of the halving at all. So you would say yes, correct? Well, I say you've got to pick your fighter.

You've got to pick your fighter. My fighter here is I'm going with the narrative of the ETF, not the halving. I think that's a stronger narrative, which is much sooner. And as a result of that, I'm saying, if you know that the ETF is going to be approved, or if your thesis is that the ETF is going to be approved sometime within the next 84 days, I don't see how we dip 30% when, you know,

people are now starting to do pricing. People are now starting to do pricing analyses around what effect the ETF can have. One came out from CryptoQuant, which brings Bitcoin on a conservative number to 74,347 after the ETF is approved. Now, you know, if that's your thesis, then I don't see how you go down 20% to 30% first. Why not though? We've had 20% to 30% weekly candles in Bitcoin probably 50 times. I literally don't know how many times, but I don't think 84 days is a long time for

Bitcoin to see 20% volatility at all. Well, not if you know what's happening after the 84 days. So look, let me caveat that. And so there's two things that can change it. One is a massive risk-off event worldwide, beginning of World War III. I don't know what you want to call it. And the second one is, for some reason, the market believes that the ETF is not going to get approved.

So barring those two caveats, then I don't see how we drop down to 20% from here. I would say that the only way is because it's an illiquid market with almost no volume. And if someone decides they want to make a lot of money by doing that, they'll go ahead and do that, which we've seen so many times. But there's a lot of buyers. There's a lot of buyers who are buying in anticipation of the potential ETF. So I just look, again, I say, we don't know what's going to happen. We don't know if there's going to be external circumstances, but if there are external circumstances, I struggle to see how it happens. That's fair.

Mish, can I ask you a question? Because I want to know if you're listening to us and thinking that we are all dropped on our head as children. Not at all. Not at all. And hi, first of all, I have not been on this space before. I know, we've been on the finance space a bunch of times. But yeah, obviously, as somebody who obviously exists outside of our lovely Bitcoin echo chamber, when you listen to this, what do you think of the cycles when you look at this or the way that we're discussing this? Okay, so a couple of things. Number one is, those of you who know me know that I had created what I called an economic modern family after all my years and years and years of trading equities, which I started out, by the way, for 14 years as a commodities trader. So I switched to equities when commodities died in the early 80s. As a result of trying to explain that to myself,

how the relationships work vis-a-vis the economy, I created this family with real characters. They're real characters. I have depictions of them that can be found on our website. And I'm mentioning that because the newest character that joined the family was my Bitcoin or cryptocurrency character. And as an adolescent, the way I define it is that typical adolescent, it doesn't really know yet what it wants to be when it grows up. And I think that really sort of defines everything that we're talking about here, is that we just, in terms of the future, I remember when I heard about this 15 years ago, it was from my nephew, who was much younger, who bought Bitcoin at like $5 and said, this is going to be the future. Banks will go the

way of the dinosaur. People will eventually switch to using Bitcoin as a currency, more of a barter system, and fiat currency will no longer exist. And he said this 15 years ago. So here we are 15 years later. And Bitcoin has certainly had an incredible run over the years, but yet we still have fiat currency. And like I said, we still don't really know what the impact of Bitcoin is going to be on not just the US.S. economy, but obviously globally. And of course, you can speculate, right, because there's been stories not only of the ETF that everybody's talking about and the, when actually that's to me the silliest conversation, because if you really want to talk about laundering, it's been fiat currency and not necessarily cryptocurrency. So I just wanted to give that backdrop. That's where I come from.

The second thing that I come from, of course, is from a more technical standpoint, because I've been charting since, well, since I could draw, basically. And if you take a look at Bitcoin just this year, essentially, if you forget about the whole FTX crash and then the rally after that in January or that huge relief rally, what's interesting is that since February, Bitcoin and Nasdaq are both up about 23 to 24%. But what's made it so tough has been this incredible long term consolidation for this entire year. So the volatility has been removed from it. And so I think that really, basically,

at this point, it's been a buy the dip. So I'm not really worried when I see dips, I look at them as oversold buy opportunities. And I think from a technical standpoint, we're in an interesting spot because if you look at it on a daily chart, it's over the 50 and the 200 day moving average. If you look at that one fake news day, obviously, that's a big bar that we've been trading inside. If you look at it on a weekly chart, even though it broke back down under the 200 week, it's come right back to it. So really, you're talking about 28.5 as an incredible pivotal area. And that's kind of how I'm looking at it right now. We have been looking at other things like coin on the basis of the potential of a spot ETF. Coinbase obviously would benefit from that.

And then the other thing we've been looking at really is some of these altcoins, the ones that have been outperforming this year that have been longer lasting, altcoins like Solana and Link. And so I think in this cycle, we'll start to see only a few of the top coins that we had before remain top coins, with those two being probably the supreme. And they've been outperforming. Also, they've been outperforming the Bitcoin itself. So that's been kind of an interesting thing as well. So that's kind of where I'm at. I mean, I think that we have an opportunity here to be patient based on this consolidation. But we also have an opportunity, I think, to get really super bullish if we take out these current levels of consolidation, maybe probably if you really wanted to be safe over 29, 30,000. And I kind of believe what my nephew told me. I just think it's going to be a while before that happens. We can see the trend. People are so mistrustful.

I mean, you want to talk about the major market here and my thoughts there. I've been really, really banging the hammer on commodities for the last three years. I started out this year predicting chaos. And here we are, you know, regrettably, but yet here we are. And in terms of equities right now, I think it's miraculous that we're holding up as well as we're holding. And I don't think it has anything really to do with interest rates. I think that's why we got here. But at this point right now, I don't think the Fed's going to have much control if things escalate as right now they look like they could. And the last thing I'm going to say about that is, I try to say out of the

political realm completely, but what I do like to look at is human nature. As a commodities trader, you kind of learn about human nature very early. And Bitcoin hasn't really decided yet either whether it's a commodity or an equity. I mean, that's the other debate. But in terms of the social trends, we've seen anger globally. And we've seen it because of many different reasons, obviously, inflation, high interest rates being two of them, but also mistrust of government, realization that there's this divide that keeps growing wider and wider and wider. And so what happens in that environment is people will attach to an ideology, even if they don't necessarily know all the facts or even care if they believe it or not. It massages a place of anger. And that is, to me, the most dangerous trend that this current situation is only exacerbating. And that is not going to be good for the markets. It will be very good for certain commodities, particularly precious metals. for Bitcoin, other than, like I said, at least I find some comfort in knowing between 25 and 30,000

we're consolidating, and whichever way it breaks, probably you should follow. Yeah, I mean, in my view, if we're going to be really simplistic without charts and talking to a big audience, it's kind of like 25, 28, 5, and 31 as the key levels. And you know, you lose 25, start talking about about 20 don't make it complicated right exactly yes keep it simple stupid as they say k-i-s-s kiss it's it's one of the best that you what you just described i think for global markets is really this uh you know the old famous adage markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent um type of situation because i think a lot of people are going to be

right, but liquidated before they are. Well, yeah. And also remember, also, this is the most important thing I think to remember, if we like to talk cliches here, is square peg round hole. This is a square peg trying to fit into a round hole market. All the people that are coming out with the classic definitions, even in some ways myself in the comparison to the 70s, which clearly we can make that case for the history rhyming thing, you still have to be careful because everything is different. Everything is different. And then you have this fuel called social media, which makes things move so much faster than what they used to move. In the very, very beginning was mentioned that, you know, pining Wolf of Wall Street said pining for the good old days

when you could just go home and watch the six o'clock news and then, you know, put on whatever show you wanted to watch. And we don't have that opportunity anymore. This is also something that is fueling not only anger, but the direction of the market. And and yet, of course course we know that eventually price does rule that adage you can definitely take home to the bank do you think michelle do you think that the the social media makes the markets more efficient since information spreads a lot quicker or the opposite it just allows misinformation to spread so quickly and it leads to inefficiencies i'm just i'm just wondering whether we're getting closer to the official market hypothesis.

Well, actually, I would probably say a little bit of both, right? Because you get the knee-jerk reactions, which creates a certain level of volatility. But yet at the same time, it also normalizes based on the fact that when the knee-jerkers or the OTDs or whatever you want to call them, when they leave, what's left probably is more about the truth of what things really are. And so there may be people, you know, it's so hard to know because I can only compare it to the commodities market when I was a trader on the floor in New York. And you had, these orders would come in and you would see then the locals speculating on that order. Right. So none of this in terms of trading is really that new, except on the floor. It was obviously more concentrated to the couple of thousand people that were down there.

And then the clerks that were on the phone with brokers around the world, they would flood in from a speculative standpoint when a piece of news would come out. But then they would take their profits. But the piece of news, if it was really juicy and it really had an impact on the market, the deeper orders that came in from speculators, but who also hedged the market, that would mean a more sustaining situation, whether the market would consolidate, rally or break down. And I don't see how that's really been very different, except for the speed of it. And of course, the breadth of it, because it goes out within nanoseconds. Are markets more or less volatile now compared to pre-Web 2.0? I'm asking is I'm just thinking how crypto is like, it's like the equities markets, the commodities markets on steroids in terms of the speed of information and the markets being

open 24-7. So if you compare the commodities markets today to, let's say, early 2000s or even the 90s, how does volatility compare? Well, actually, volatility has been, I think, almost disappointing. I would have expected even, let's just take the current situation, right? You would have expected the volatility to go to the roof here. You would have expected gold at this point would be trading 2100. You know, if you think about it back in the old days when something came out, I mean, I was there during the first Persian Gulf War and oil rallied like three, you know, like basically I'm trying to remember in one day, $30 until it went limit up. And then that was it.

They closed down the market. We're not seeing those kind of moves in terms of commodities. And in equities, I think you have certain volatility in certain equities. But really, if you look at the map right now, the ones that have reached 52 week lows have done it almost uniformly. And the ones that have reached 52 week highs have done that relatively uniformly. And if you just take a look at the S&P 500 right now as a benchmark, from where we started to now, I mean, they had a nice, beautiful run there from the low in March after the mini bank crisis to its peak in July. But really, basically, the volatility over the last several weeks has been non-existent. So I'm not even sure what's up. I think maybe the

opposite. Maybe people are afraid right now of potential volatility, so they're staying out. I know there's a lot of cash, and that's just the theory I'm coming up with right now of potential volatility. So they're staying out. I know there's a lot of cash, but I'm, you know, and that's just the theory I'm coming up with right now as I'm speaking. Okay. Let me ask one more question. Maybe they're afraid of it and maybe they're afraid of it and see a 4.91% 10 year yield and just say, oh, free money. Well, yeah. Yeah. Money market funds. Yeah. That's where we're at. Michelle, I'll ask you another question, a bit separate. What's the narrative like in Wall Street when it comes to crypto, especially with, you know, Larry Fink doing his TV tour and the ETF, you know, you could say is almost imminent.

After the whole FTX drama where crypto was laughed at, is the sentiment changing? Is there a lot of institutions that are looking at coming into the market? Because we know the narrative in our own little crypto echo chambers, and we think the narrative is positive. And the institutional players, Wall Street, is getting into the market. We are getting better regulation, better regulatory clarity, despite the SEC crackdown. But I'm curious, outside of our little bubble, how does TradFi look at us? Well, in my universe, it's positive. The whole idea of an ETF, a spot ETF, and somebody like Cathie Wood, not that she has much credibility these days, but she does speak to a baby boomer type generation. That looks at mass adoption. That sort of thing would actually, I think, give it credibility and bring people who would never trade it now because they would have no idea how to even open a crypto wallet. I think it would bring more bullishness because it would bring more interest into it. And then, of course, you're going to have people who just say, well, I'm never going to understand

it, especially as you're getting into the older generations. And then you have people who, you know, write me sometimes after I talk about Bitcoin, I did an article about it actually early this week, and tell me that it's going to go the way of the dodo bird, you know. So I would say if I had to step back and look at the overall sentiment, I think people are intrigued. And I think that the mainstream Wall Street and particularly the older generation of right older millennials, the Gen Xers and the baby boomers themselves will be more interested, not so much for their own portfolios, but in the legacy that they're leaving for their children and grandchildren. When we speak to our older

clients, that's the number one concern that they have right now is not so much making money for themselves, but preservation of capital, and then some aggressive risk opportunities to leave to their ancestors, not their ancestors, I'm sorry, the opposite of ancestors, to their not their ancestors i'm sorry the opposite of ancestors to their future generations so there you go i mean i don't know if that's a great answer but that's the how the best i see it right now which is why i go back to saying at this point we're still in adolescence and we don't know if it's going to grow up to be a great adult or not so great adult i'm guessing the former though yeah i'm curious jason i want to go to you with another question um how will the and this question we've discussed a lot before and i'm not sure scott if you've got further questions but how's the next bull market gonna look like um you know my my

narrative has been obviously become really the way etc but uh from a from um from a narrative perspective and obviously use cases and all that that the the basic stuff that you'd always want to say like hey we want some use cases some real world use cases something that makes sense but will we see the same bull run as we saw previously uh number one and number two um your thoughts on like different narratives i'm a big fan of gaming for example okay you broke up a little bit there while you were talking. I think your question was what would the next bull market look like? I mean, from a narrative perspective, is that correct?

Narrative perspective and whether we're going to see a similar bull market to previous bull markets where it's just free for all and no one caring about regulation. Greed dominating the bull run. Well, greed always dominates the bull run. I mean, that's just part of the cause. Personally, you know, we always say those words are different, right? Those words are dangerous.

This time is different. I do think it's going to be different. I actually wrote a very long article yesterday. In fact, I got a bit out of control, soon a half thousand words long, and published it just on what we saw with the, just that little test run with the ETF news yesterday. And I was just interested just to have a,

just a little look under the hood, just some data, just, you know, nothing too serious. Just dive in a little bit uh top level see what happened see what moved what reaction we got and obviously we all know it was very quick it was over in minutes really but if you sit there and think about it um you know this was one outlet okay it's got a big following it was retweeted quickly uh but the that news was out there for very short amount of time and And even people like myself, and I'm sure there were thousands of others, said, oh, we'd love this to be true, but I need

a source. I need it now before I do anything. So, you know, I didn't react except trying to find more data. And I'm sure a lot of other people did the same thing. So, you know, in terms of the numbers of people who reacted, it was probably not that much um and in fact the uh i think the volume for the day was 27 billion i think it was um go from memory here just don't quote me i think it was 27 after about 7 to 12 what it would be um so there was it was moving just a few minutes now that gave us just enough information to see what would happen if an etf approved. And I'm sure we've discussed this in great detail, but to me, that changed everything. I'm not a big believer in technical analysis. In fact, Van and I have had this conversation a long time ago, actually,

but we had this conversation about it. It's useful for certain things, but Bitcoin is very susceptible to outside events and world events in particular. And these happen all the time, particularly something that is so nascent and is so small. You know, you think about it, it's a big thing, but it is very small. And that to me changed it because we saw we had this tiny little snippet of what might happen. And you add that into the formula of um it's very likely now that the the etf will be uh will be approved and you know kind of extrapolate that with the data we've got we are going to probably see an unprecedented move and i do think that will kick start a a bull run which will be different to before because it will just get silly for a while and people will try and

trade into it some people will get it wrong. And that could shape quite a lot what happens after that. Really, it all bets it off beyond there, but I think it will be different and will be ETF-led, just based on that tiny little snippet of data. Just having that little insight is really useful. And by the way, I've made the article free to read, so if you have a look at my Twitter, you can go to the link there and have a look

and see if you agree or disagree. Scott, any thoughts? No, I think I actually pretty well covered it. You still, by the way, I remember, I'll never forget one of the most memorable things you've said on the show is that debate we had about how the next bull market will look like. And me, you, Ran, disagreed.

Like me and Ran were saying saying regulation will make it different to previous bull runs. It won't be as messy. It won't be as crazy. It won't be as free-for-all. And you're like, no, humans are humans. I think it'll be huge. Yeah.

Yeah. I think it'll be absolutely massive. We'll be laughing about these conversations because humans are going to be humans and greed will take over and speculation and people will be creating new memes that they can YOLO into and see go a thousand X. Listen, I mean, macro market cycles have continued to repeat, although larger in potential and perhaps a bit smaller than the

ones that we see in crypto. I don't see any reason why this one would be particularly dampened. And really, every time you guys aren't in the US, so I'm surprised that you have that opinion. In the US, it's easy, I think, to get really down on crypto because of the state of regulation and legislation and just how much it seems that they're cracking down and how much pressure on it. But I mean, you head out of the United States going to Singapore for Token 2049 last month, for example, and it's like, what bear market, right? People are still really excited. They're excited. They're building. Sam Bateman Freed is like some guy who committed fraud over there in the United States. They don't even talk about him or care about him, right? They don't talk about Gary Gensler. I just think that

there's nothing more bullish. There's nothing that gets people involved or excited about a market more than high prices, right? So prices go up. That brings higher prices because it brings more people in and the same cycles that humans have repeated all of the past will repeat again here. So yeah, I think that we will see monster alt seasons the same way we did in the past for better or for worse. I think we'll see bitcoin make new highs and uh you know just got to be patient wait till it happens i've never i've never asked you my life on it but that's my core case i've never asked you about narratives any narratives that interest you because i've heard you say what we've just said now but is there anything specific is defy 3.4.0 quite a few all right what are they yeah yeah quite a few i actually i think that uh

we'll see all of the narratives of past cycles play out more completely in future cycles. It'll just mature, right? Like you just said, I think we'll see a better version of DeFi. I think we'll see the original promise of NFTs coming to fruition. I'm not talking about PFPs and 10,000 collections of cartoons. I'm talking about real world assets being tokenized. I actually had a conversation this morning on YouTube with Sandy Call from Franklin Templeton. She's one of my favorite people. Obviously, they're one of the largest asset managers in the world and one of the few like Fidelity that's been extremely forward thinking on crypto and what it can do. And every time I talk to her, I get more incredibly bullish. The things that they're building as an institution already to take advantage of the promise of NFTs and tokenized assets. People don't realize that Franklin Templeton already has a market cap of

$300 million of tokenized US treasuries and T-bills that are being traded. That market already is over a billion dollars in total AUM. Maple Finance, a lot of people may have heard Sid Powell talk about this, is a big player in that space. But you're talking about one of the largest asset managers in the world is already tokenizing and trading T-bills massively, right? 300 million to drop in the bucket for them, but that's pretty large for the crypto space for something that nobody's talking about. We saw JP Morgan, obviously, in their Onyx platform, facilitating a transfer of a tokenized money market account from BlackRock to Barclays, right? I mean, this is really happening. That allows for a faster transfer, a cheaper transfer, but more importantly, it allows these institutions

to use these assets more efficiently as collateral, which is all they really want, right? So I think that the real world asset narrative will be big in this cycle, but much like probably previously hyped cycles, maybe we really see it come to fruition in two cycles, right? So I think that a lot of the things that we saw in the past, we're going to see coming back. Gaming, obviously, is a huge narrative, I think, coming into the cycle. Again, it was just too early. So we just need sort of, you know, to see one AAA game maker really adopt this or to see a blockchain native AAA game built. But I think we just saw very early iterations of the huge narratives of future cycles in past cycles. It just was early and we weren't ready yet.

Talking about gaming, one of our portfolio companies, Big Time, just launched a couple of weeks ago and they're doing great, which was beautiful to see in a bear market. I'm a big, big fan of gaming, probably my biggest focus right now. And that funny speech you guys were talking about with me on Cointelegraph on the panel two days days ago yatsu was there as well um obviously leading the way when it comes to web3 gaming um so yeah a narrative that i'm really interested in and also tokenization of a guy like that talk yeah yeah you listen to a guy like that talk it's hard to be there yeah gorav who's a friend of both of ours and he told me he he was so stubborn when it came to nfts when we spoke about nfts very stubborn kept laughing at me whenever I talked about NFTs. Now he's more bullish about it than he told me two days ago.

He's like, because he's friends with Yat and he keeps listening to him. He's like, Mario, the more I listen to Yat, I think now I'm more bullish on NFTs than you are. And obviously, NFTs, digital ownership, metaverse, which I know he's got a bad. Anything that gets a bad rap, I become a big fan of because that's when it gets interesting. He's like, when it gets a massive hype, everyone's talking about it like ai right now i kind of get turned off and then when ai becomes like you know the laughing stock and not everyone's laughing at anyone that invested in ai then i'll be interested i'll start looking into it it's obviously metaverse right now and fascinating to me nft is concept of digital ownership you know and when we say nfts i'm not

talking about pfps even though i'm also interested in pfps and digital identity but nfts in general web3 gaming and uh you know tried to find tokenizing and you kind of gave great examples in that uh in that area it's not my area of expertise uh but it's one i'm really interested in so that's why i'm at the concept of tokenization um also security talkers sto's which have been the talk of town back in Also security tokens, STOs, which have been the token town back in 2018. Everyone was excited about them. Then they died down. I think that would be something worth looking into further, especially as more and more players

want to play by the rules. What about the concept of utility tokens? I'm not sure if you're a lawyer. If you're a lawyer, you're their lawyer. Do you think the concept of utility tokens, how's that going to look like in the next bull market? Is that still going to be a thing, a

utility token when you first launch a project off immediately as soon as you launch it, immediately becomes a utility token instead of a security? Yeah, I mean, I don't know what's going to become a thing i mean like

there's a lot of ways that these could concept could be used in a way that might make sense to me but that's not like on my radar what we're going to see in terms of nfts like i'm working with a few companies that are tokenizing real world assets and that's a really exciting space right now i'll say that i I mean, like looking forward looking, it's almost like everybody in that space is looking around at each other. Like, do people realize what the world's going to look like in the future? It just, it doesn't look like that yet.

And so it's a real opportunity, I think. Yeah, appreciate it. Scott, I think that's a good recap for the day. I think it's much new. We can talk about the ETF, I think, tomorrow. Get a couple of our panelists that have been covering the ETF on the 10 year 5.24 percent on the two year i haven't even looked but don is just uh i saw tweeted 5.017 percent on the 30 year i mean just well i've also hey donish i see you out there i'm looking at the um coin market hub i didn't know again because i've been in the whole war coverage but i didn't know bitcoin's up four

percent in the last seven days eth is barelyTH is just barely up 0.2%. It's unchanged. So we are seeing that recycling from alts to Bitcoin. Yeah. Yeah, if you look at the, you know, kind of going back to the original topic before we conclude, if you look at the cycles, this is a time when you would expect sort of all coins

to suffer against Bitcoin as the liquidity and volume is sucked out of the market. I just think the reality is that if you do believe in the having narrative or if you don't, right now, there's this extremely low volatility, extremely low interest in the space for investors, extremely low volume, extremely low liquidity for various reasons. And so, you know, small things can make for relatively large moves, but they're usually very, very short lived. And without massive amounts of new money in the space, you know, as Ben Cowan was talking about yesterday, you just sort of get this recycling of alts into Bitcoin, Bitcoin into alts, depending on what the narrative of the day is. I think it's clear that's what we saw two days ago, that fake Bitcoin spot ETF news. Yeah, we saw a lot of volume on Bitcoin.

We saw a massive move up. But if you looked at what was happening with altcoins, they were just getting destroyed on their Bitcoin pairs, which means people were selling their altcoins to buy Bitcoin, not necessarily taking their dry powder from the sidelines that they might not have. So I think it's just that part of the cycle. Yeah. And by the way, I just thought I'd look at – don't laugh, but I looked at Frentech to see what's happening there because then it's kind of died down. No one's mentioned it. And obviously, I'm like, is it because – I forgot about it. Yeah, I'm like, is it because I was covering the war or is it because no one's talking about it anymore?

But the metrics are pretty interesting. USD inflows are like nothing. I think yesterday was October 80. Today, it's over 300 far 300k and last couple days was outflows of a few hundred k tvl is still at 40 something mil but what's fascinating is that i can't believe this is still higher than the nft uh ecosystem that's crazy to me that i was just telling i was just telling my jenny you know jenny i was just telling you yesterday um i was like she doesn't know anything about crypto.

She just knows when she hears me in the background doing my shows and stuff. So she knows the basics. Or when I'm speaking at events, that's about it. And I was telling her, Jenny, it's just crazy, crazy how far the market, the same way it pumps like crazy, it's insane how far it drops. It's insane that people are sitting on a portfolio worth billions. Now that portfolio is discounted by 90%, 95%. Valuations are cut by 90%. Stop looking at my portfolio, man.

It's messed up. No, but isn't it? It's like we're used to it. But it's insane to imagine that two, three years ago, people walking around sitting at their portfolio of NFTs, whatever it is, thinking they're on top of the world, they're set for life. And then a few months later, just because they held the world they set for life and then a few months

later just because they held on everything and they believed in it a few months later a year later there again trying to make either trying to make i saw an nft um i i don't know if this is correct i did see it on someone tweeted out um a zombie punk got sold for 600 700 000 that did just happen just a couple days ago ago. So there's still are that's a bad thing. Scott, that's a bad thing. Argument 1000 times. Scott, that's a bad thing that low that's extremely low. You're talking about a zombie punk, a zombie punk and I don't find your Lizzie you think like, that

sounds very laughable. This is like the rarest punks like you having a zombie punk is like a mass in the bull market, even now, but in the bull market having a zombie punk is an incredible mass in the bull market even now. But in the bull market, having a zombie punk is an incredible flex. Like you become immediately a celebrity in crypto, which is the whole concept of a digital identity. That's what the concept is. If you find it funny, I don't care. It is what it is. So a zombie punk is like owning a Rolex or one of one Rolex or one of five Rolex.

So it's a massive flex. And once one sold for $600,000, $700,000, I'm like, wow. We're in that bad of a bear market. Funny that my gut instinct was, holy crap, NFTs are back, baby. 600K for a picture, right? And I guess I didn't know that that's actually a bad thing. Like if we're still paying 600K for pictures. Look at this. Look at this.

No, no, look at this. I'll tell you this. There's Punk6275. paying 600k for pictures look at this look at this no no look at this i'll tell you this there's punk 625 6275 how similar to my name my number just mixed up but it's sold um in i don't know how many months how many years ago but it sold for five million dollars i'm looking at that was and that was the ninth most expensive punk sold the the most expensive punk sold a a zombie one um it is alien zombie and and the monkey one they're the most expensive ones but yeah this is the the most expensive alien one was sold for i don't know if zombie means alien maybe it does maybe there's no alien it's zombie

but the most expensive one alien was sold for 23 million dollars imagine i got nothing for you man like uh you know like remember what i told you humans were gonna human seeing things like that makes me quite sure we're gonna see another cycle like just imagine something sold for that much now it's less than a million uh i'll try to see if imagine Imagine looking at, I don't know, like a mansion on the water in Miami, like 10,000 square feet on an acre with a boat and thinking, you know what? I'm going to buy this picture.

I don't want that house. That's insane. I'm sorry. It's insane. The 69 million people, I mean, listen, we saw that. If ever there was like a greater example of human greed and stupidity, we got to at least got to be there in real time and see it. That blows my mind.

$20 million. I literally thought 600,000 was like, holy crap. There's still people willing to pay $600,000 for a picture. Yeah. If I look at the value, how much it's worth worth now i'm just trying to see the value of it um i think valuation 3200 eth how much is that what can you do the math 17 dollars no no 3200 that's too much i think let me see how much that is that's no that's the last sale price sorry um yeah i don't know what the value is now there's a website that kind of uh estimated

price 129 000 no way there's a website adapt radar apparently makes estimates uh there's one i think it's the same one uh 5822 they're valuing their value we get it 129 000 last sale price 12.5 million they're valuing it 130 000 i mean if you look at the chart of any given lesser known altcoin they're down 99 plus percent that's crazy highs right so this is the nfd market would be any different this is where it gets tricky though in crypto is like you know the people that made their money is the people that you know held through bear markets and waited for the bull market like this is the strategy. I was just talking to an investor about the whole thing.

I don't know. I would say the guys who made their money are the ones who sold a picture to some moron for $21 million. But hey, whatever. That's insane. I think we should probably continue that conversation privately.

We'll see you tomorrow. I mean, to some absolute genius who one day will recoup all those losses on that amazing picture. Thanks, everyone. See you tomorrow. Bye.