The Wolf Of All Streets - BTC Recovering, ALTS Running Faster w/ @ByteAIToken | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: May 3, 2024

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I love I love Rad Rad is here first this is the first time I wonder Rad you're here

before me before Scott before everybody Scott is not even co-host today he's like dominating the space instantly

what a coincidence how are you I mean sir no show today I'm not doing a show today I'm chilled bro I'm sitting there's no

there's no YouTube show there's no YouTube show I'm in Miami I'm sitting on a sofa in Miami I'm chilled, bro. I'm sitting. Oh, there's no YouTube show? There's no YouTube show. I'm in Miami. I'm sitting on a sofa in Miami. I've got a lot of time on my hands. It's actually so amazing. Why no YouTube show? It's a bit disappointing considering that I know you.

You're a pretty hard worker as far as I know. Yeah, because to be honest, I worked so hard in the last couple of weeks launching Gummy and running the business and doing stuff with Tooker. But I just thought if I'm in Miami, to do a show in Miami, I'd need to wake up at like 5.30 a.m. or 6.00 a.m. to start prepping. And it was just like,

just take some time off and actually enjoy Miami. So I'll be back on Monday with a vengeance. Well, Monday morning I'm doing a show, then I'm jumping straight onto an airplane to get back to South Africa and then I'll be back to normal. Where are you now? Sitting on the South Beach, overlooking the bay, sir.

You have that debate tonight, and then obviously the Grand Prix, but you're hosting the Zero Hedge thing tonight. Yeah, I forgot about that. Yeah, I have that debate tonight. I must say, I'm kind of shitting myself. I mean, I'm wondering the debate with Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini, Eric Fouhies, and Anthony Scaramucci. There's no moderating that. There's no moderating that.

Well, that's exactly what I'm – like how do you moderate probably the most – Have you ever tried to just moderate Peter Schiff in an interview by himself? I did it last week. It's not a debate. You're not moderating a debate you're trying to get people to listen for a second to someone else talk about something they disagree with and will not change their opinion on yes yes exactly and and shouted each other and you know and so like i'm like you know usually when you moderate a debate you know you can there's a chance that you the one side

will see the other side you know that but like i watched mario's debate to get some pointers mario did a very good debate with zero hedge around the ukraine situation and like it was a civilized conversation and the two people were there to you know they're almost like learned from each other um i don't think that that's going to be the case tonight i've obviously interviewed and i've even hosted debates with Nouriel before and that was like hard. I did a Nouriel against, I can't remember

who it was. I did a Pump versus Peter Schiff back in the day when I was at CNBC and that was hard enough. the tough part about Peter Schiff is that he'll never change and Nouriel Rabini will also never change. I think oneiff is that he'll never change. And Nero Rubini will also never change. I think one of the reasons they'll never change is because, you know, I'm sure that they get paid speaker fees and whatever else to be the other side of Bitcoin. And the minute that they change their point of view, then, you know, goodbye to that line of business, you know.

I had Peter last week. Hold on. You think… Yeah, Mario, I had Peter on my show last week and I literally started the conversation. I actually really like Peter. I literally started the conversation saying, we have an hour. I don't want this to be another debate over Bitcoin. We're never going to agree on that. I want to talk about the 99% of things that gold bugs and Bitcoiners agree on with the understanding that we stumble at the finish line collectively as to which asset

is the best to hedge us against all of these things we agree about and he launched into diatribes about bitcoin any second that i that the opportunity was presented even when i threw the olive leaf and said let's just talk my first question was tell me why gold is so important and he launched into a diatribe against bitcoin so yeah so yeah i mean yeah i mean look i saw your trailer i saw scott's trailer on that you should pin that scott there's a great trailer that was the best minute and a half ever edited on my show yeah but but ryan you mentioned something earlier in the space before we kick off the show and discuss the topics at hand you mentioned gummies and tuker i didn't tell you a story um yeah i don't think i told you the story so i knew

gummies because you i think your team told me about it or something you told me about it um so i knew about gummies but then someone from my team the guy that manages our whole meme coin portfolio he's like mario can you connect me to tuker i'm like bro you never reach out to me for me because i'm the last guy you should connect to tuker and why the fuck are we working with a project called tuker they're like mario rand's behind it and then i messaged rand what the fuck is tuker and that turns out to be this massive thing that you built can you tell me what tuker is because i know what gummies is we spoke about it in token 2049 and and and and over calls what's the whole idea with tuker so i mean i must say like i'm much more excited oh no so let's put it this way. I'm very excited

about meme coins, as you know. I was very much against meme coins. Then I became very, very, very excited about meme coins because I kind of realized that meme coins were very cultural. I realized that they were a more democratic and more inclusive version

of NFTs, etc. I think we've had this discussion a long time and I very much became someone who likes the idea of meme coins and the effect that they have on the industry. Obviously, I don't like all meme coins. At the same time, as you know, I'm also building a media station. So Banter is a media station we've been trying to build. I think we are one of, if not the biggest,

crypto media station out there today. And we're trying to build, I think we are one of, if not the biggest crypto media station out there today. And we're trying to build a crypto media station. And one thing I've tried to always, what I've always tried to do is to try and find how network effects can happen in a media station. And actually, if you think about it on its very basic level, crypto is actually all about network effects. And the reason why tokens and protocols are successful in this industry is because they land up getting network effects. And network effects are effectively the most powerful effects in the world. It's the reason why Facebook and Google and Amazon and Uber all get such high valuations on the market is because they have network effects. And by network effects, what they mean is that every added to the network adds value to the network exponentially,

but also shares in the increase in value that they have created for the network. And that, for me, is the difference between network effects in general and network effects in crypto. In the general market, network effects are that every user that you add to the network adds value to the network exponentially. For people who don't understand exactly what that is, if you think about a world, let's say call it WhatsApp, and you think about a world where only me and Mario are on WhatsApp, I can call Mario and Mario can call me. Therefore, the maximum number of calls we can make on the network is two. If we add Scott to the mix, all of a sudden, I can call Scott, Scott can call me, I can call Mario, Mario can call me,

and Mario can call Scott, and Scott can call Mario. So we've increased the number. By adding one more player to the network, we've increased the value of the network exponentially from two to six. Why? Because the network has network has network effects now building a media station i've always wondered how to build a media station around um around and to be able to get uh network effect in the media station and to be honest i thought it wasn't possible like i actually like got to a point where i said look media is always going to be a linear business it's not going to be a network effect. It's not going to be a network effect business. It's not going to be an exponential business. Anyway, fast forward a couple.

I mean, this is a journey that I've been on for the last three to four years. Anyway, fast forward, beginning of this meme cycle, I start warming up to memes. And one day I identify, I see this meme, which is a meme of Tucker Carlson. So Tucker is actually on stage with us he's a speaker here today but what they do is it's a meme of tucker carlson but it's tucker crilson and it's a very very very uh it's funny satire as you know as you would hear it from tucker so it's almost like think about if tucker carlson was a degen, how would he report on crypto news? And if you were just to mean that, what would actually happen? And so I saw this content on Twitter. I loved the content.

And then the first thing that I said was, hold on, I love this content so much. What if we were to just take Tucker Carlson and turn it into a real media station? And the reason why I said that is because at Banter, we've got a huge infrastructure. We have a sponsorship sales team. We have a YouTube team. We have SEO teams. We have, you know, content production teams. We're a full media station.

And for us to help another media station, you know, explode and just plug into our systems and explode them, like we know we can do that pretty well and pretty easily. Beran, just, quick question. Something you said I don't understand. I understand everything you said so far, except the media station. I don't get how Tuker could be. So how could a meme community or meme talk could be a media station?

So Tuker is actually started off as a meme coin. Then the guys started making content. And the content is actually very cool content. It's very highly informative. It's funny. It's very highly informative. It's funny. It's really cool to watch. And that's what I, when I looked at this content, I made contact with the team and I said, look, I think you're making great videos, but I think this can actually be something much

bigger. I think that if you plugged into the banter research funnel, you know, we've got 40 researchers that work for us. And if you plugged into some of the banter script writing and show preparation funnels and stuff like that, what you could do is take your content, which maybe lacks a little bit of crypto alpha, and actually teach people drop crypto alpha in a fine took a type way every single day. And so we started experimenting. We brought one of our script writers on board, working with a Tukka team, and they started making videos. And as we started making videos, the videos became more we were actually building was a meme media station. It was a media station that instead of being based around Ran or Mario or Scott or Sheldon or Kyle or all that, it's actually built around Tooka the meme. The media station is a meme, full reporting, high alpha, very funny, satirical media station.

It's all around this character of the meme and then something really amazing happened when we did that we actually realized that the memes are memes seem to form communities much better than humans seem to form communities it's the same reason why like you know when you look at the most successful nfts last in the last cycle the nfts weren't around people it wasn't like the nft of taylor the last cycle, the NFTs weren't around people. It wasn't like the NFT of Taylor Swift or the NFT of, I don't know, Bitcoin crypto. It was the NFT around an ape or a dog or a punk or things that people could somehow relate to. And I think what we realized was that actually that Tooka was forming a very, very, very strong community of people that love the content.

So how does a token come into this? I understand you've got this community. They started creating. So did they create the media aspect, the decentralized way? So you've got the community that hold the token. They wanted to create some sort of utility, some sort of value to the token. So they started creating media. Did they gatekeep it with a token?

No, the two are unrelated, actually, funny enough. The two are unrelated. There was a team creating content, and there was a token in the market. And that is when I had the brainwave of saying, hold on a second. Whoa. Let's help these guys make amazing content. And that's exactly what they did. And then let's try and get the content sponsored.

So we went to a couple of sponsors and we said, look, here's Tucker. He's a meme. He makes cool stuff. We want to get him sponsored. So we went to a couple of sponsors and we said, look, here's Tucker. He's a meme. He makes cool stuff. We want to get him sponsored. We want to see if we can maybe incorporate like very tasteful value-added sponsors to the meme. And immediately, I swear to you, it took our sponsorship guys 30 minutes to phone me back and say, we've got $100,000 worth of sponsorship ready to rock and roll.

It's sitting in a wallet. Let's go. And I was like, guys, all I asked you to do was to evaluate whether or not you could do this. I didn't say that you should do it because the truth is I haven't even spoken to the team that makes the animations as to whether they have the capability to build in sponsors. Anyway, fast forward a couple of days later, we thought, hold on a second, let's try this. And so we've been messing around incorporating sponsors into Tooker-type content the same way we incorporate sponsors into banter-type content.

And because there's no company, there's no Tooker company, no one owns the rights, there's no company, there's no nothing, what we decided to do was we decided to use the sponsorship money to pay the animators and burn, basically just buy and burn tokens. So what we created was we seem to have created the following. We seem to have created a flywheel where people really love the content and Tooker is building a really fucking cool, very funny,

very cool community around himself. This meme is building an amazing community around itself. Two, we found that you could actually build sponsorship into this animated content and sponsors are willing to pay for it. And three, we then said, okay, hold on a second. We can actually just, because there's no company, let's just buy back the tokens. And so what we're doing is we're using the proceeds of the sponsorship to just buy back the tokens. And so… And how's your model though? we're doing is we're using the proceeds of the sponsorship to just buy back the tokens and so how's your model though so did you buy up a lot of the supply early on did you otc deals

i mean i bought a whole lot of tokens on the market to be honest i don't own like i own a sizable chunk but not like you know it's like i started the business and i own 100 of tokens or whatever i own i own the single figures of the percentage of the token supply um because I've been buying it and I'm still buying it actually on the market to be honest um and so what we what we decided to do was just we were just messing around we were just having fun and and then this thing just caught on now sponsors are kind of breaking down the door saying look we really want to be on tooker we really want to be on tooker because it's really cool and really funny and people are enjoying the content and some of the videos are getting like three four hundred thousand views or something like that and now what we

realized is that we've actually maybe created some kind of network effect in um in in in the media station marriage you're hot mike you're just killing my ears so sorry um so i'll tell you i'll tell you basically how it works essentially if you're part of the tucker community and you enjoy watching the content the more content you watch the more sponsors are willing to pay. The more sponsors are willing to pay, the more money they'll pay to sponsor. The more money they'll pay to sponsor, the more money we're going to just use to buy back tokens and freeze them, destroy them, burn them. We're just waiting for some legal advice to make sure that we're doing it the right way so that it's classified as the right thing at the right time. We'll decide what we're going to do with the tokens.

But effectively, it means that we may have created some kind of network effect in media. Why? If you're a Tukka holder and you land up watching Tukka content and you support the sponsors that are on the thing, and the more they sponsor, the more tokens that are bought back by the market,

and the more tokens that are bought back by the market, the less a circulating supply. And so this flywheel creates itself if we actually create a network effect because the more content you watch, the more tokens are burnt. The more the, well, theoretically, the more the existing tokens become scarce. And so we create this flywheel that goes round and round, round and round. And it's the first time that I've actually seen this kind of flywheel in a media station and if you think about it going like 10 steps forward or three steps forward or stuff like that if you if you think about like how far we can go here you can actually say that for every person

times every minute swap a token is bought back so you can actually build smart contracts that literally charge sponsors per view and actually burn buy back tokens and again we're waiting for a legal opinion in terms of what the right way to treat the token is but ultimately reduce the circulating supply of the token making the token more scarce and so i i said this before on a space the other night where i said for me tucker is literally the project that i'm like that number two project for me in terms of the time that I'm actually spending. Obviously, Banter is the one where I'm spending the most amount of time. But Tooker is the one where it's taking up a lot of my brain because I actually think that we've actually maybe identified a very cool model to actually get network effects on a media station.

So I think we're breaking a lot of ground, to be honest. So I like, okay, so this is, it just clicked in me now and I should have mentioned it earlier. So I won't mention any names here, but we're doing a similar strategy, but media wasn't even meant to be part of it. So there's a meme project

where we're looking at investing, buying up the supply in open markets and then working with the community to kind of build it out. Media wasn't on the cards, but I'm genuinely interested by the concept. So probably I'll kind of talk about it and see. I'll look at how you did it and try to get some ideas and maybe do something similar. I'll share with you.

It's like a perfect fit. Yeah, you should. But I didn't think of the media aspect of it. Are you – sorry if I missed that part. And now I'm being a bit selfish with the questions, and I know we're going to go back to the topics. Like, I didn't think of the media aspect of it. Are you gate... Sorry if I missed that part. Are you... And now I'm being a bit selfish with the questions and I know we're going to go back to the topics. We kind of went a bit over time.

But are you gatekeeping the content with a token at all? No, I mean... Just the burn mechanism. Nothing. Just, I mean, again, like... Oh, no, you have it on YouTube. Yeah, I saw. I saw.

It's just a YouTube video. So it's just part of building that community, that identity. The token was around and then all of a sudden the meme became into existence and to be honest like there's no like one company that issued both it's like it just so happened that there was content and there was a token and i just have you reached out have you reached out to tucker uh well we've got no we've reached out to tucker we've tried to reach out to tucker actually i'm in the process through our network to see if we can get him on board you've reached

it but you should reach out. You know, he's been on my show. Actually, I'll actually ping you after this to see if you can help me because I'm reaching out through other ways. And to be honest, they've been a little bit unsuccessful. No, no. Yeah, we did a space with Tucker. But that's actually a really cool concept.

I genuinely might copy this. And I like the concept of, but this is the cool thing. Like we had, I don't know if Scott, that was on a show with you or no yeah i think it was one of the shows we did the crypto town hall and we mentioned something about meme tokens and the guest we had i think is yesterday the ceo of anamoka and we had that a couple days ago with a bunch of bitcoin maxis the perception around around meme coins is changing pretty quickly um and i think people understand the value of it the community aspect of it and the whole concept of a decentralized identity decentralized community beyond just pump and dump tokens similar to nfts beyond pump and dump pfps and and ideas beyond

pump and dump tokens of 2017 so i think there is value among the mess of me i think the one you know last year the one thing that i that i that excites me the most about this is that it's actually a media station around the meme. It's almost like South Park. But imagine building a whole – and South Park was a very successful media franchise. You're not talking about building a whole media station out of a meme that actually stems from you know you're cutting out you're cutting out is it me cutting out is it is it yeah ryan you're cutting out you're cutting out so i'm just gonna cut you there and say you know is is one second to tell you it's gonna be

yeah i'm cutting you out, bro. We didn't hear anything you said. So I'm just going to, either want to say it again or I could ask you a separate question. Let me ask you a separate question. Is Fred,

is Fred involved in the, I see him in the audience. Is Fred involved in the project? If he is, I want to be involved too. If he's not, I'm out. I don't want to be involved with Tucker.

Is Fred himself, the man himself involved? Fred is the meme master. So, you know, when Fred gave me the thumbs up here that Tucker over the amazing meme, I was all in. He left the space. He left the space.

Excuse me, I mentioned his name. But the last thing you were saying before you're cutting out, before I think God of Scots is going to kick off the show. Yeah, I think, look, for me, the exciting part is that I think we can actually create a meme-powered media station. I don't think anyone's done that other than South Park. I don't think South Park was a meme. It was an animated franchise. I think we're going to try and create a meme media station. We're going to have guests like Bowdoin and Trimp.

We're going to host presidential debates between Bowdoin and Trimp. We're going to host – we think that the politicians are going to give us a lot of meat in the next couple of days. And like, so, you know, like at FOMC, we can interview Jerome pool,

you know, so it's, it's literally, we can create like this parallel universe, like where, where, you know, when the ETF launches or doesn't launch,

we can get to Gary Gwinsler and we can get Larry punk. And we're literally going to use all these memes to create a media station and to see what actually happens and you know and like what what actually happens uh um uh yeah yeah so like basically try and create a meme media station and to create a meme media station that actually has network effects where the more content you watch the more tokens are being burnt it's like it's almost like i don't know it's just to me it's one of the most exciting things that i've and i see a lot of projects and this is one of the most exciting things that i ever did and so you know as i said i went out and i bought i was not involved in

issuing a token to be honest i was quite late to finding out where that this token even existed because i'm not that plugged in to i wasn't that plugged into the media media thing but i'm glad that i did what i did and you know i think now we've got a lot of people on the journey with us a lot of big names which are you know backing this uh idea some of them are celebrities that have also been memed and have kind of said to us look i'd love it if you could incorporate my meme into your next piece of content. So it's almost like, it feels almost like running a real media station. I don't know how to explain it to you.

What type of content? What type of content? What type of content? Sorry, I need to stop the questions. But what type of content does it have? Well, go and look at it. It literally is one crypto story every single day. I mean, go and look at Tucker Quilson.

He's a speaker on stage. You can just follow him. But literally, it's one to two stories every single day, and it's Tucker Quilson. He's a speaker on stage. You can just follow him. But literally, it's one to two stories every single day, and it's the most relevant story. So whether it's FOMC or CZ going to prison for four months or a failed airdrop or whatever it is, it's like it's actually real crypto alpha. Yeah.

So I was just going to the YouTube channel. Carlo, your thoughts on this idea? I want to move on to the topic to the youtube channel and let me carlo your thoughts on this idea i want to move on to the topic now go to scott but your thoughts on whole concept because you're a lawyer but you're also a dj and you've got an nft pfp i'm hitting all the bells and whistles i think exactly you got all the red flags i think it's very innovative what i need to do to you ryan no good ryan carlos talking about you not a good thing so no i think it's i think it's a very innovative approach should i jump off and jump on or and i'll get carlo back down and up so don't worry i will move on from carlo in a second you stay on i think it's a very innovative approach and i've been talking for a while

about the memetic value and it is i think something that is undeniable. I think it's really the future of NFTs is the main factor of it because social communities are going to build around these NFT communities and it's going to be a way for people to have an identity in this space. An identity that's not really tied to the PFP, but more tied to the memetic culture

that can be built around these uh themes which is why i enjoy my mfr which is my profile picture because it is a community built around memes and i think they have a tremendous amount of power to to really bring people together yeah i think rand just dropped to get back up he's so impatient he couldn't hear for a few seconds he dropped off right he can come back up i think i want to move on to the topic though i think we went a bit a bit far down that rabbit hole because it's something i'm really excited about but maybe we should just do a new space in a week or so whenever scott allows us about meme talk is kind of a market update um but i you know i sat around before like he's always taking bigger risks than i and and kind

of thinking a step ahead so i always like congratulate him whenever he tells me about you know gummy and now fucking took her um i congratulate him and also say fuck you for like always being a step ahead and and yeah i think he's just paying off well uh by you know i like the concept behind i like the way he's done it scott i do want to go back to the mic i have to add to it i have to add to mario that i'm glad he's seeking legal advice on this because as you, the more innovative and the more you push the boundaries in this space, the more you can run cross of regulators. So I am glad to see that Rand is seeking legal advice on how to execute on this idea. Yeah, you're assuming he's seeking legal advice.

So, Nast, if you can bring up Rand as a co-host, that would be great, please. He's just requesting. But let's go to the market. Scott, maybe give us a quick market update. And things are looking green today. And I know people, we were talking yesterday about, we had pretty sick guests yesterday. We also had a chat with the CEO of Animoca, just about markets in general and different narratives. So, maybe we can pivot.

Today is a greener day. So, I think we'll hear more positive and optimistic thoughts on stage. Everyone has positive emotions today. Shouldn't we have a cartoon tell us i knew i knew you're gonna do that i knew you're gonna take a jab at us i literally knew you're gonna fucking do that no uh well a cartoon is telling us i'm asking you do you do you own any do you own any meme coins yet scott or not yet yes i'm sure he does I'm sure I'm sure you do bullshit my ass you're probably the biggest DJ behind the scene I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it I'm just I'm too busy I'm just gonna I'm just gonna I'm just gonna buy some of the I'm just gonna buy some of the I know your wallet so I'm gonna buy some of the shittest scammiest

fucking meme talk send them to your wallet and then just kind of call it right on it good luck finding us a lot of wallet that belongs to me but yeah go ahead man the market's out let's go to the panel peter dave made it dave's been a while we haven't had you on stage scott will be grumpy for at least giving five minutes to kind of get back in the mood. But Dave, your thoughts on the markets. And yesterday's discussion was about, I think we had a few guests and we had a discussion with, was it Richard? Was that, I'm not good with names, Scott, the CEO of Animoca?

That was Robbie. Robbie. Robbie. So we had a chat with Robbie. So we had a chat with Robbie yesterday. And one thing we were talking about was we kind of went a bit more degen yesterday as well. Beyond discussing the markets in general and regulatory crackdown in the industry, we also went down to kind of the more degen stuff. And we had either Robbie or another guest talk about how the VC models is – no, Robbie didn't believe that. But he has other guests kind of skeptical of the VC model.

And that's not going to be the same as previous bull markets. More bullish on, funny enough, meme tokens and a lot of liquidity heading there rather than the VC route and the IDO, IEO route. And back to will we see a different cycle this time around considering the regulatory crackdown and the macro uncertainty in the elections coming up? We'd love your thoughts, Dave, on a green day. Well, I mean, my thoughts on the green day aren't all that different. I cannot hear Dave. I can hear him. I can hear him.

Okay, yeah. So, Scott, you have to take over the mic because I can't hear now. It's all yours. Go ahead, Dave. Yeah, we can hear you just not Mario. It's a Twitter. It's a spaces glitch that happens to go to us every time. Yeah, okay, cool. So, my thoughts today are more or less the same as my

thoughts a couple days ago when Vinny and I were talking, which is we're in a trading range, damn it. Understand what that means. Everything is dependent upon basically two factors, and there are two factors. One, you know me, and we talk about it every Monday on Macro Monday, I think the Fed is trapped. I think they have to inject liquidity. They have to do so as stealthily as possible to force as much inflation into assets as opposed to into consumer prices as they can. And I said that three days ago and three days ago and everyone was panicking, was like, oh, my God, you're just, you know, you're holding the fort. And now I'm saying it the same way. But that doesn't make me euphoric. It means we've gotten back into the trading range.

I mean, and it is that. And I, like you, think that absent a catalyst, we're going to stay in said trading range, you know, for a while. And the trading range is fairly wide. I mean, it's, you know, in the 70s, you know, low 70s to high 50s. But, you know, so be it. The fact is the data that came out today isn't surprising. I haven't seen a decomposition of the data yet. I'm curious if anyone here knows what percentage of the jobs that were created were part time versus full time, because I think that's a big deal. But the feeling of malaise in the economy is real, and it will influence the election. It will influence many things. And so, yeah, I mean, I think that it's pretty much

pretty clear that the narrative around Bitcoin and the narrative around crypto is reasonable. Now, that said, I also believe in Bitcoin dominance increasing. Not surprisingly, Bitcoin dominance is up today. So, no, I'm not tremendously excited. But obviously, you are seeing really interesting stuff, such as what you're not seeing, despite this, is you're not seeing funding rates going through the roof. Right? The IPERP funding rates are negative on Bybit and BitMEX. They're normal on Binance futures. And I'm just looking in real time here. And the funding rate is negative on USDT perpetuals on Bitcoin, on Bybit, Nokex, and below normal on Binance. So there's no euphoria.

We've jumped, jumped with literally no leverage euphoria yeah and that to me most bullish thing i agree i think it's i think it's a must i think it's bullish i think i want to ask you a question so you mentioned the trading range and you know to me i agree with you that we have been trading in a range but i think the minute that you break under the range then are you still in the trading range so when we spoke to peter a few ago, Peter said, I think that if the close of Bitcoin was under 57 or 58, Peter will correct me here. I know he's here on the panel. He would say that, you know, then he was looking at levels of around 30,000. He said 30,000 could actually be in place.

And I was kind of watching. I think the real range was, yeah, sorry, man. I think the real range kind of was the bottom was like 60,700 if i mean drawing a range traditionally so we're back in it now without a close but a lot of people are throwing out sort of 60 as a round number we definitely had many closes below what you would view as the range so that's so i think that's so my i mean i'll make a statement then i'll come back with a question so for me the jobs numbers today i think there's two things that were very encouraging this week which were which which i which i identified the first thing is and i tweeted what would happen i said if you look at the fomc the

fomc will turn the markets and i think what pal did pal was extremely dovish and specifically he was prompted many times around whether or not a rate hike could be on the cards. And he kept saying he feels that rates are sufficiently restrictive at this point in time. And he kept repeating that he feels rates are sufficiently restrictive at the moment, et cetera. So that was like one positive. We're not stressing about this when rate hikes aren't on the table. The other thing that happened is is the job numbers and the reason why i said these job numbers are quite encouraging

is because it's actually the first time that we've had a good data when it's a good data data that would encourage uh uh potential rate cuts and i'm not saying that this alone will direct us but it's the first time that we're actually seeing data in our favor. We've seen PPI and CPI increasing and PCE increasing and stuff like that and jobs being strong. And now we're getting a very, very, very weak job number, which is like, hold on, maybe something is actually buckling here. Actually, it would be very interesting. I saw Vinny was in the audience. I wonder if we can bring him up here and see if he's still – because Vinny had the thesis about potentially the Fed's next move being a rate hike.

So I don't know if you guys want to just try and get Vinny up to speak. Let me actually invite him and see if he can do it. But, Peter, I want to go back to you and just ask you, we did close under that $58,000 or whatever your level was. How are you feeling about that in context of going back to 30,000? Or is it invalidated now that we've had a recovery? Well, when I say 30,000, really I'm talking sub-40. I really, quite frankly, don't think that it works case we go below sub 45 but but i will add that going sub 45 for me

long term would be the most bullish possible scenario on the charts and so part of me is a wishful thinker for that so i want to moderate my belief in that based on the fact that i'd love to see it but i'm impressed with how we've recovered. You know, we broke and now we've recovered. So I'm still kind of 50% probability that we have the big post-having move yet to come. A big bull market, you know, lasting into September 2025, price 135,000. And so 25% probability still, as I put out in a report that we go sub 40, let's say, then I agree with Dave, I think there's a 25% probability that we just get sloppy in here and chop the bulls up on days that the markets rally and they buy in and get blown out. Shop the short term bears out when they sell. They sell a big dip and regret it two days later.

So I am impressed that we've regained it. But I, you know, for me, I look at the 18 week moving averages, 18 day moving averages and kind of stuck between the two right now in Bitcoin. And of course, for me, Bitcoin is Bitcoin. I was really interested in Rand's comments. I issued a Peter Brand NFT, limited edition, 150 people for content, right? For information, for kind of a media platform. It was a one-time deal. It's closed, never to be opened. But I never went with the meme part of that because memes totally confuse me. But I thought what you're doing, Rand, is congratulations for you for being as innovative as you are. Kudos, kudos, kudos, kudos.

So that's my view. I think we're correcting gold. Maybe another 50 bucks to the downside. in a major bull market. Stock market to me is like watching leaves grow on the trees in the spring in Minnesota. Nothing, no opinion, don't want an opinion. Ryan?

I'm trying to get Vinny up onto stage. Vinny only joins when he's in the proper mood. We get him in the audience quite a bit. Here we go. Vinny's not on.'s in the proper mood. We get him in the audience quite a bit. Here we go. Here we go. Vinny's not on.

Vinny's not on. We have him. We have him. I see him as listening. Oh, there he is. Okay. I'm here. I'm here.

Okay. So I think I agree with Peter that the current move looks very bullish. And I think that it could lead to new highs pretty soon. I don't think we're out of the woods until we get past the cpi reading i think it's next week um and that's the one thing i think we just need to sit back and and the market may trade sideways until then but if that cpi comes in uh hot all bets are off if the cpi comes in you know on pace or looking better uh and kind of tags onto the jobs numbers today, then I think then, yeah, then we'll run back on.

But I think at this point, it's just all going to rest on the CPI, in my opinion. I don't think there's anything else. What's your probability of rate hike versus rate cut in the feds next looking at looking at the inflation numbers for last month i think it's going to be uh we're going to miss on the inflation numbers i think it's going to be up i think oil's been a problem i think there's been lots of other problems um you know globally and um uh you know so i i don't think i don't think we're going to come under on inflation and so the look powell is very clearly, you're right, he was dovish, and he was basically non-committal on any rate hikes.

He doesn't want to signal to the market there's a rate hike. I mean, the tapering off of QT from 60, I think it was 60 billion down to 25, that's a huge sign that there's some concern around, you know, at least the treasury market dysfunction and they are worried about that. And remember like that tapering off was actually, it's, it's, it's an effect.

It's stealth QE. I think Dave said that early on, it is stealth QE. So they, they're trying to put money into the market somehow, but, but yeah. Yep.

I don't know if you saw just to what you were saying. I didn't mean to interrupt, but M2 money supply is up year over year, which nobody's talking about for the first time, basically, since the tightening cycle started. So speaking of stealth QE, we do have more factually M2 money supply has increased even while the Fed has, quote unquote, tightened and paused. Exactly. And that's because there's lots of lag effects in the economy and how this stuff plays out. So I don't know how we hit the forecasted inflation number. Maybe it's 0.1.

Maybe it's 0.2 above, which is not going to be good. So Powell is fucking praying that he doesn't have to hike rates. That's what he is right now. It really looks to me like he's got a lot of hopium, the same way he had hopium that the inflation was transitory. I still think there's non-zero chance, maybe it's 25%, but I'm going to lean towards saying that there's probably going to be another rate hike because I don't think you get inflation down to 2%

with the current 5.25 to 5.5? I would go as far as to say that my prediction is that they'd sooner abandon the 2% target than increase rates again. And I want to just remind you of something else that I kept hearing during the FOMC. Yeah, something happened. What Powell said is not that he's not going to reduce rates until inflation hits 2%. He said he's not going to decrease rates until they believe inflation is heading in the direction of the desired 2%. Yeah, because it will overshoot otherwise.

They always say that because it will overshoot otherwise. They wait until it's 2% knowing they're using lagging data. They'll overshoot. But, Ran, just really really quick i would push back i think we analyze fomc and powell and what he should or could do he's literally never changed his tone literally and and people talk but i'm saying so why would he abandon the two percent target before actually fixing it if he said that from no no no no no i don't i don't believe he will abandon the 2% target. I believe that they will start reducing rates before inflation hits 2%.