The Wolf Of All Streets - BTC Ripping Higher! Will Altcoins Follow? | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: October 23, 2023

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Scott, how are you? Doing well, man. How are you? It's cool. I like how you always wait for me to say the first hi. It's endearing. It's endearing, but also it would be super awkward. I assume that you say hi when you're ready, so I feel like if I say something, inevitably I'm going to be talking to myself. Okay, fair. How's my background noise? Is it acceptable? Yeah, it's fine fine how do i sound actually glad to step out of my normal space it's all right we're both in a sauna that's okay it makes sense

um yeah man you sound you sound good you sound good i i woke up really late today so i don't know anything about the news i don't know if they said there's an etf again and then corrected it again but the markets are looking good yeah i think it's pretty impressive that price is above where it was last week when that happened. But I think we'll dive into that more. You can now tell we're in a bull market when the hosts are doing their spaces from the sauna. So you can tell prices have gone back up.

Yeah, but is that Bitcoin is doing well? How are alts doing? Actually well. So I think we're going to dive into that as well. Because I mean, giving this sort of broad strokes on my feelings on that last week, we saw it was last Monday, right before the show, we saw this massive pump in Bitcoin from 28,000 to 30,000 and back amount of an hour on that fake ETF approval news. But what was interesting in that case was that we saw very clearly that that was the old washing machine of crypto traders foaming out of altcoins and into Bitcoin because the Bitcoin pairs on altcoins went down massively. Right. So it was money flowing from altcoins into Bitcoin. What's happening this time is we've seen the sustained push in Bitcoin up.

Interestingly, is that altcoins are also performing. Some of them, I mean, Solana, Link, Injective, a number of others have been outperforming Bitcoin by a large margin. And that can only happen if there's new liquidity coming into the market. Now, I'm not saying that there's like massive new liquidity, but for altcoins to go up while Bitcoin is going up means there has to be new money here. So this is different than last week. That doesn't indicate that it's going to last.

But for whatever reason, there is more interest. Maybe it's people coming in with dry powder from the sidelines, but they're rising together. Interesting. Gareth, and by the way, Scott, you sound like you're in a swimming pool just for the record i am gareth perfect oh okay there you go i just had to step into a room with better internet it's a bit echoey okay oh good oh good let me get right up uh gareth would be great to get an overview yeah so so i mean it's been a great last week for alts alts breaking out Cardano had a beautiful wedge pattern that it took out late last week and has continued to rally. Same thing with Matic.

Bitcoin, I think really one of the things that caught my eye is when we did get that fake news, the reaction. So one of the things that's fascinating is that people queued off that reaction, even though it was fake, to say that, OK, if price or if this spot ETF is going to be approved, you are going to see a big pop in Bitcoin. And it kind of, you know, considering the fake news stalled around, what, 30,000, it tells you that when it's real news, it probably makes an even bigger move and pierces that level, which we've obviously even seen. I think in the overnight, we might have touched 31,000 on Bitcoin right around there. So there's definitely some real interest coming in based on that price action. I also think the fact is that you've seen gold make such a tremendous move that a little bit

of that is starting to carry over into Bitcoin, like a little bit of buying maybe as a safety hedge because of gold's massive move to the upside. So to me, I am a little concerned now we're coming into this 31 to 32,000 level, which was that high from a few months ago. That's your first big test. Did you take profits? You came onto my show on Friday when we were writing on the back of envelopes. I don't know if you remember that embarrassing situation. And you said that you were going to take profits at around 31,000. Did you take profits at $30,800 a day?

No, I didn't. So my order is between $31,000 and $32,000. So I'm still in it on my Bitcoin long here. But I will take half off once we get, if we do get above $31,000, just because, again, this is proven investing, right? It's not a huddle position for me. It's a swing trade. So you take a little bit off going into resistance. And if breaks through i can ride the rest of it if not i can

always rebuy on a pullback yeah look the one thing that i noticed i don't know if you noticed it but the buying actually started the the next candle started buying when the cme opened exactly to the minute the cme opened depends on where you were in the world last night, early this morning. And as soon as the CME opened, that's when the Bitcoin price went from 29,900 to 30,800. That was all CME buying. And for me, what's encouraging about that is the fact that the people that are buying CME are not the retail investors, not the Bitcoin bros. It's the institutional investors. It's the funds. It's a new kind of buyer. And even to this point,

the open interest on Binance still hasn't spiked. The open interest on Binance is still low, which means that this is not driven by crypto bros taking out leverage and being flashed every single time. This is actually a slightly different rally. I don't know if you can give me that.

Actually, that's interesting. I didn't know that. And that sort of aligns with what I was saying right before you got on is that last week we saw altcoins flowing into Bitcoin. This time we see them both rising, which means there's new money. Well, there is new money. So I have a chart. I just, unfortunately, I can't measure the chart, but a couple of billion,

probably I can say probably three to four billion you can see actually flowing in the last couple of days in brand new money. But again, the interesting thing is exactly, exactly, exactly as the CME opened, that is when the pump happened from 29,661 to 38,91. And it happened within a couple of hours. But the trigger, I've got a chart in front of me. If you draw a line, the line is the CME open. Now, the reason why that got me so excited was, A, crypto open interest on Binance remains exactly the same. It's up like tiny, tiny, tiny, negligible.

B, who is buying the Bitcoin on the CME, the Bitcoin features on the CME? Well, it's the people that would probably buy the ETF and people that can't actually trade on crypto exchanges. Because if you can trade on the crypto exchange, why would you trade on CME? Like you'd rather just go to Binance. It's quicker. It's simpler. It's open 24 hours. You know, you don't have that CME closed gap.

So the people that are buying the institutions, and if I'm putting one and one together, this is, for me, pent up demand ahead of what they believe is going to be a favorable ETF decision. And so what they're doing is they're starting to get exposure now and saying, look, let's not be caught with our pants down without actually being exposed to this. Noel? Hey, everybody, great to be with you. Two things. One, totally agree with you all that it is new money coming in. But when it comes to the alts, there's also something else going on. There's a lot of short covering. A lot of crypto funds were short the alts over the past few weeks because of the relatively bearish outlook compared to other assets.

And with money coming into Bitcoin, they're getting nervous and they're closing out their positions. We've seen that happen a lot today. So there's some of that going on, which suggests that these nice bumps we're getting, which is like 10% in some tokens, the momentum may not continue. But on Bitcoin, the second thing I want to say is that it's not just about the Bitcoin ETF anymore. That is a big driver. And you're totally right, Ran. We are seeing a lot of US-based institutions start to go long via derivatives, but also in the spot market. It's bigger than that. I really do think that the Argentinian elections yesterday have a lot to do with the change in narrative that we're going to be seeing in Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Because whatever happens in November, in the runoff, whatever happens, it's bullish for Bitcoin. Either Argentina gets a pro-Bitcoin president or it gets even more inflation. Either way, Bitcoin this morning and Argentinian peso terms reached an all-time high. So I agree with you very much on the second point. The first point about short covering on altcoins, to be honest, before I did my show today, I actually did a deep dive into that. And specifically, I looked at covering on altcoins to be honest um before i did my show today i actually did a deep dive into that um and specifically i looked at the big altcoins i looked at the matic

i looked at let me just open a list of all the tokens that i looked at so i looked at matic uh solana uh dogecoin arbitrum aptos i at those. And actually what I found was that there was no change in open interest. And what that means is that usually when you have short covering, the open interest actually goes down because it was effectively open. It was actually, it was effectively open interest. And when they short cover, they close the open interest. So what you'd expect is you'd expect the open interest to actually go down. And when I did the analysis this morning before my show, I actually realized that there's been no change in open interest, which means that I also thought initially it

must be a short covering, but the data that I'm looking at and look, my sample may be biased because I'm only looking at the major altcoins and I'm actually only looking at it on Binance. I'm not looking at all the exchanges. I don't have a system that can show me all the exchanges in one, but certainly on Binance, there was not, there was not much short covering and usually Binance is the ground where you get most of the short covering where these moves actually happen, but it didn't happen today.

Gareth? Yeah, I just wanted to jump in and just in talking about crypto, I do want to talk and just touch on other things going in the market. So this morning we saw yield piercing 5%, right? So the 10-year yield was piercing 5%. S&P was down nearly 1% pre-market. It looked like it was going to be another nasty day. And then all of a sudden, Bill Ackman tweeted, we have covered our bond short. There's too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster

than recent data suggests. And then all of a sudden, the 10-year just collapsed. Markets recovered and we're now actually, the S&P has now turned to green. So it's not directly right now affecting cryptocurrency, but that is some big news. I mean, considering what's going on with rates and what has been going on with rates and the pressure that it's been putting on some assets, that's some pretty big stuff. Yeah, Gareth, I'm feeling a little better about our TLT longs now. Yeah, yeah, me too. I was up at like 4.30 in the morning buying a little TLT when it was down a buck this morning and so far paying off. So Gareth, from a technical perspective, what should we be on the lookout for and whether this rally will be sustained or not? Yes, I think you just want to follow those yields in the near term. As long as we don't really push back to 5%, I think it opens the door for stocks to rally higher. Crypto, if there's a risk on

element, I think that could also be beneficial maybe for the altcoins to continue or at least hold some of their recent gains. But it's really that yield. I mean, believe it or not, the dollars become secondary now. That's kind of just stalled out. It's all about these yields. And the market is craving a pullback. And I think we have to be honest is that, you know, if yields continue to go north of 5%, at some point, there's a crisis, some point, you know, you break something major. And I think the market's been very worried about that over the last week or so with the market stock market dropping. Finn, James, I want to go to you as well, just get your thoughts on what's been discussed so far in the markets in general, especially the recovery over the last

few days. Yeah. How are you doing, guys? So it's interesting that the five years, Gareth is pointing out, but ironically, if the five-year does come down, it's because of that worry about something breaking. I've been talking about this for a long time. We've been talking about this, Scott, for a long time. Something breaks. What breaks? Well, it's a credit event.

And the credit event is something that is far reaching. It's large enough. It's important enough that it has some sort of contagion that the Treasury and the Fed will want to contain, which means that they will step in and do some sort of yield curve control, which keeps that long end of the curve from jumping up to, you know, five and a half, 6%. And so what Ackman is saying is that, look, there's too many risks in the overall economy right now. So ironically, if that five year, if the 10 year comes down and it stays down below 5% on the expectation of that, then stocks will come down. They will come significantly lower.

Now, I mean, I appreciate Gareth's work, and, you know, I watch what you do, Gareth. And technical analysis is important for swing trading and for, you know, entering and exiting positions. I do use that. But, you know, when you're looking at this stuff, these are major, major economic cycle moves. And this is not... So I would just caution people to be careful

about exactly what we've been talking about before, is taking on leverage, leveraging positions, the whole Bitcoin, altcoin situation. It's difficult to really put a finger on this morning. Obviously, there's a lot of hype, a lot of expectation and speculation, probably well-placed speculation that an ETF, a spot ETF in Bitcoin is going to be approved soon, whether it's before the end of the year or it's first quarter next year, doesn't really matter. And as Gareth points out, that the fake news sparked a jump, a rally in Bitcoin pretty, pretty quickly, you know, and for this thing to move 10% is nothing. And I wouldn't be short it.

And as far as, you know, Mario, I think you were talking about the the uh the open interest and the altcoins well you know remember you the you as as people move out of these altcoins and into bitcoin as you know it's kind of a it's a safe haven within crypto right so an open interest can be uh open on the other side and And that's just one thing I just want to caution people not getting too excited about the speculation on it. And then finally, to Gareth's point, and using technical analysis, you know, if you look back at Bitcoin, and those, those higher lows, it's made since the beginning of the year in January down at 16.5 ish and then in March somewhere around 20,000 and then in June somewhere around 25,000. Again,

it hit that. But if you just, you ignore that move in September because it broke down below that 25,000 level in August, and you just draw a line across there. That's kind of what we're bumping up against here, technically, with Bitcoin. It's right around that 31,000 level. So I'd be interested to hear what Gareth has to say about that. But that's kind of a mental level that people will look at in my mind. I mean, James, the significance of that level is also the fact that 31.8 is the yearly high and i don't think we closed at 31.8 i think we just wicked into 31.8 but you're talking about we're now at the yearly high and actually we are at the same levels that we were at in june or july let me give you let me which doubled with only which only doubles its significance right

exactly exactly so the last time that we were at this level was 13th of june 2022 and that's just after the the first phase of the lunar collapse and before the um the c arrows capital collapse and so like this is a very very very significant level if we break if we break through this then i mean as the chartist will tell you, there's pretty much hot air to like 40,000. Yeah, well, it becomes support. Really quick, guys, that's inaccurate. It was 2023 June that we were at these levels.

And when it flips, it becomes support. That's right. Yeah. Scott, we were at 2023. As I mentioned, we were at 2023. There were, I think, two candles, I think, if I'm not mistaken. Sorry, the two weeks, which took us to the 31. The close was 31,447.

If we break above that, which is what I said, then the last time that we were higher than that was 2022 on the way down. I heard you when you said the last time we were at these levels, I looked at obviously June. And so sorry for the confusion. Yeah. I just want to make sure people know we have, we have visited these levels,

but breaking above them would be massively bullish too. And then, and then look again, I'm not, I'm not the world's best chartist. I think Gareth is the world's best chartist. I think I'm a very close second. I think that from that point on the next,

like real levels are like 40 000. they're definitely so guys what do we have what do we have to break just can give me that number again what do we have to break what do we have to close over ran i think it's 30 i think if you want to be accurate it's 30 31 447 or something like that and It depends. When we hit about the 32k level, that means we're far above it and then the hot air comes in. We would have to close. We'd have to close above that level, yes.

And again... Yeah, make sure for everyone listening, make sure that it's not just a wick, right? Because I've seen so many people get whipped out and bots will do that. Algorithms will do that. They'll know everyone's waiting to buy above a level. They'll just wick it up there. Then everyone piles in and they just dump into you. So just really make sure you got it. I even like to see a couple days close above that level to really be sure. Yeah. And then, I mean, again,

the other thing that you got to look at, Mario, and again, I don't know if Gareth believes in this part of the charting, but the other thing that you have to look at here is if we fail this, if this attempt to break steady 1,000 fails, then, and we start going down, you could potentially be looking at a head and shoulders. And the head and shoulders is a bearish pattern. And Gareth, I'm not sure, what level would you put on the head and shoulders so so the head and shoulders the key of the head and shoulders is we could be right now forming that right shoulder the key is you can't take out the high from the

ripple news which was at around 31.8 so as long as we don't take that out if we curled back over then the head and shoulders triggers at approximately 25,000. Right. I mean, that's always been. And then just and then the calculated. Right. Yes. I was I was going to say the calculated target of that head and shoulders would be 20,000, just under 20,000 if it played out. Right. But it's interesting that 25 aligns so well, even before this head and shoulders potentially existed. By the way, nothing exists in a pattern until it actually breaks down. So it's a very theoretical thing, just like double tops and triple tops. But 25,000 was always the level where the market

first made a higher high on the way down from 69,000. That was the support where RSI on the daily got oversold, you had bullish diversions, It popped off. That was the support we just tested before this move up to 31. So regardless of the head and shoulders, if we go back down that way, it's going to be the area to watch. Can we switch a little bit to macro? Because I want to talk about the yield curve on inverting. I don't know if you guys have been paying attention to that, but it's happening very, very rapidly. It's something that James and I discussed this morning. And I think it's really worth noting when I was listening to James just speak, of yield curve inversion and the deepest that it's gone. Right now, it's rapidly un-inverting. Usually, the yield curve un-inverts, then we see the Fed finally pivot because things are very bad, and then we get the stock market crash.

Lynn Alden pointed out in a tweet, I believe yesterday, that that is accurate, but this time is a bit different because usually, the situation is not that both yields are actually rising to un-invert, but one is rising faster. But usually have the Fed controlling one side of it to bring it down. So, James, I mean, we both argue that this is actually worse. Is that your assessment? Yeah. I mean, what you're looking at, in my strong opinion, is you're looking at investors going out on the yield curve and demanding more yield for the risk of not default, but for an onslaught of treasuries onto the market because we're running such large deficits right now that you're, you're literally watching, uh, the, the large institutions, you know, what, what were, uh, they were called the bond vigilantes, uh, back, back in the eighties, uh, and they're back is that they're demanding more yield.

And so instead of the fed bringing down rates and that yield curve un-inverting from the short end, both ends are going up, but the long end is going up faster. And the reason for that is because there's a higher risk of inflation that's perpetual and long-term. And so that's what the bond traders, the bond investors are demanding higher yield. Now, the question that is on everybody's mind is how high do they go for how long before we have what we've been talking about, which is that credit event? And that's anybody's guess. It could happen today. It could happen in six months. We don't know. But as rates stay up at this level, it's not just how high they are.

And this is another thing that we need to touch on. It's that they've gone from 0% to 5% or over 5% in a matter of 18 to 20 months. And so that's significant. And that is the part that people have to key in on. It's not just that they're 5%. We have come from zero interest rate policy to this level. And that's going to cause something to break sooner or later. And that something is hopefully hopefully not the treasury market. Now, what I mean by that is that, you know, the treasury market locking up, getting dysfunctional, it's not going to be like there's just no bids for treasuries. The treasury market doesn't go no bid.

If it does, the financial world has ended. But what you're looking at here is if the treasury market gets dysfunctional, when you start having long tails on treasury auctions where, you know, the when issued trade at a much different rate than what actually the treasury actually gets in the auction, then, you know, you've got a problem of demand. And when you have a problem of demand, that means that the Treasury and the Fed have to get together and do something to shore up that demand. And that's called yield curve control. And it's a stealth form of QE. Whatever they're going to do will either be stealth QE in the background

or just outright purchases through dealers. And that's the problem. Chris, what do you think? Yeah, man. You know me, man. I usually say things that people hate because it tends to be a lot different. But I mean, everybody's worried about this inverted yield curve. And I don't know, man. If you look, you look, yeah, here in the U.S., I would argue limited data sets. If you look other places in the world, you know, you've had stocks continue higher even in recessions. I think most recently we can think of Germany. You know, the DAX has continued to rally even though they've been in a recession. So this idea that this recession has to come in and that this inverted yield curve is this great idea that that's what's going to happen.

I think there's just, as usual, there's different things going on this time around than what there's usually been in the past with where we're sitting in terms of the hikes that we've had with the Fed funds there and the speed of which they've been, what they've been hiked, right? I don't think we've ever seen anything anywhere near as high as fast as we've had. So, you know, again, we're attempting to use, you know, this idea that of what's generally happened in the past in situations that weren't quite similar to where we are now to kind of justify why a recession has to come in. And, you know, again, I'm not saying it won't, but I'm always really cautious. You know, it's for the same reason that I don't look to look at correlations in markets, because a lot of times people go, OK, well, look, these two things are correlated now.

And then next month, oh, wait, no, they're not correlated. Then they're correlated again. And, you know, as, wait, no, they're not correlated. Then they're correlated again. And, you know, as a trader or as an investor, how does that help you? You know, it doesn't help you. So I tend to look at things that are much more consistent. So, yeah, you know, I'm still waiting to see how that actually plays out. But, you know, everybody was talking about, I don't know, a repeat of 1987, you know, today, which I kind of chuckled about a bit, you know, and here we are, you know, I warned that we'd probably just get a little bit lower down and then we look for a

rally up. And, you know, we might still have a bit further down, like, you know, in the S&P or something like that. But I just don't see anything definitively saying, listen, we have to be concerned. I'm not saying it can't happen. As always, you know, as new information comes in, you have to be willing to adjust your position. But right now, I just don't see anything, whether it's in the charts or really even in the numbers that are saying that we absolutely have to be worried at this moment. And then, Chris, your thoughts, if you link that back to crypto uh your thoughts on the current

uh i wouldn't call it a rally but the current uh conditions yeah you know this is nothing different here than what i've been talking about um as we entered accumulation in june of 2022 everything i mean we went a little bit sideways here longer than what i expected here uh you know the last six or seven months, we got a double pullback on that I expected just one. But I mean, other than that, everything else happening pretty much exactly as I've been talking about and expecting. And, you know, if we look at the rally off that recent 25,000 touch area there, you know, again, we can count five waves up from that. And so, you know, when people talk about head and shoulders, yeah, it looks like it. But if I'm looking at that, I'm seeing five waves up.

And if that's five waves up, then that's, you know, the beginning of a new rally higher. Right. And so I've been talking about, you know, this idea again, what you guys were talking about earlier, this if we break thirty two thousand, we're going to teleport probably thirty eight to forty two on our way to fifty plus. That doesn't mean new all time high before happening or anything like that. But just that, again, things I pointed out was, you know, we usually get a 78.6 retracement prior to happening. And that would get us up there in the 50s. So I mean, and that's happened, you know, again, short, you know, short data set, we've only had so many bear markets in crypto, but it's been consistent every single time.

Yeah, I mean. Yeah, I appreciate it, man. And I wanted to, Scott, if you don't mind, I want to ask Preston a separate question. Joe, I see your hand up. Preston, just about the XRP news. Can you tell us how significant this is? I know we're a couple of days late and we've discussed it already, but how significant is it and what does it mean for Alt? Yeah, I mean, if you're Brad Garlinghouse or Chris Larson,

you just made about 700 million bucks. So it's great news for them. In terms of what it means for Alt and the wider crypto markets, the SEC has been kind of on the back foot in along two axes. One of them is that they've lost some some key rulings in the Ripple case, which it's not really it's not really a criticism of the agency, but a criticism of the legal regime. People have said, listen, enough is enough. There's too much confusion. We need legal certainty around this. And there's a lot of pressure being applied on Congress by lawyers in the space, by policy advocates and others to kind of push back on this.

The other one is that people are starting to pivot. And really, they started to pivot about six months ago. And we're starting to see people just say, fuck it. You know what? We're going to go do crypto somewhere else. We're going to run, you know, we'll have a Delaware labs company and we'll employ people here. But what we're going to do is we're going to sell the tokens abroad. We're going to run, you know, we'll have a Delaware labs company and we'll employ people here. But what we're going to do is we're going to sell the tokens abroad. We're going to go to foreign exchanges. We're going to VPN block and IP block the US. So a lot of those business plans that were put in place when the SEC started going after Coinbase and Binance are now more or

less complete or beginning to be executed. And so people are starting to move stuff offshore. I don't really think it moves the needle. I think the market's figured out that the rest of the world is still very much fair game for crypto. They've also figured out that even though the U.S. is the biggest economy, it's still only about four and a half percent of the global population. And so people are trying other things and doing other things. So I think the Ripple news, that's a long case. It's going to take a long time to resolve. The thinking is that by dropping the claims against Garlinghouse and Larson, the SEC will be able to expedite the appeal of the case because now all of the issues in the case pertain to Ripple Labs.

And so the outcome of the Ripple Labs issues really depends on the stuff that, you know, that they lost on, which they've presently appealed. So I think they're trying to simplify the litigation so that they can get an appeal more quickly, so that they can win more quickly. And they have to win quickly, right? Because if they don't win quickly, there's going to be an election. And in that election, the other guy, right, not their current boss is currently up in most of the swing states that matter. So I think that they've got to get their work done very, very expeditiously. Otherwise, they're going to find themselves out of a job in early 2025, when the Republicans get back in, if the Republicans get back in, and then it's going to be a, you know, DC is going to be a

very different town at that point. Cool, Scott. Not sure if you have anything else to add. I don't see Joe's hand up. Nothing significant, no. I mean, it's nice to enjoy a little bit of a rally here. Yeah, Joe, any final quick comments, man, before we wrap up? I'm not sure Ryan is here as well.

Yeah, I mean, two weeks ago we were talking about going to 20 and i had said you know i think we're seeing a different narrative that people are going towards safety and scott agreed with me that even you know the fact that peter brant was saying you need to own some bitcoin and i understand the etf scenario but you know I feel like the whole global crisis thing, what's going on in the Middle East, don't forget Turkey and Libyans are one of the highest owners of crypto in terms of penetration. And if people are looking at it as a safety asset, that's why I think this rally is going where it's going. I don't think it's the ETF. I know US looks at it like a speculative asset, and that's why we're talking about the yield curve because traditionally as on-risk assets would go down if this happens. I think we're in a different situation. BTC more and more on the media keeps being called

a flight to safety. you need to own some Bitcoin and with the crisis that's going on people are scared people are going to buy Bitcoin they're going to buy gold I don't know what else they're going to buy but that's yeah I would I would I would disagree with that statement just on the on the like we're seeing a rally not just a Bitcoin we're seeing altas all seeing new money come in I know. Scott, what do you think of this point about all this just being a flight to safety? Well, when you have Larry Fink saying it's a flight to quality, it doesn't really matter if it's true because Larry Fink is saying it and the entire world is listening. So I think narrative, whether it's been proven to be a flight to safety or a flight to quality, the Bitcoin price continues to rise as the largest, arguably, I'll call him the other president of the United States, Larry Fink, is talking about Bitcoin and crypto, to use the word

crypto, being a flight to quality. So I think whether you believe the narrative or not, and whether it's he believes the narrative or not, or he's just talking his book, if he's saying it, people are listening to it. And that's what's happening here to a very large degree, I think. And, Brian, alter nowhere near Bitcoin rally. I mean, you can say that it's a flight to safety, but you can't tell me that,

for example, Chainlink, and with all respect to Chainlink or Solana or any of those represent a flight to safety. No, Bitcoin is a flight to safety and everything else will ride its coattails. I think that's, yeah. Well, yeah. So, look, my theory around this, and I'm interested to hear everyone else's views here, is so you've got the realized price of Bitcoin and you've got two metrics.

The one is the realized price of Bitcoin. And the other one is the number of addresses that are actually in profit. So we're seeing that the price has been above the realized price for quite a long time. Now, the reason why this is relevant is because when the price is over the realized price, it means the majority of the Bitcoin holders are actually in profit. When the majority of holders are in profit,

and the profit is getting bigger, and they are in profit for a long period of time, they become more risk takers. They become more risk tolerant. And when you're under the realized price, it means the majority of people are at a loss and they become much more risk averse. Now, I think what's happening here is because we're above the realized price

and we've been above the realized price for a period of time, people are starting to get more, okay, we're comfortable. This crypto thing is actually making me feel great. There's a good feedback loop into the brain to say I'm a genius because I called Bitcoin and I've actually made money on my Bitcoin. And then they start being, they start putting more money into alts because they start feeling a lot more

confident. And so I think one of the reasons why the alt coins are running now is because the price is above realized price. I actually spoke about it when the price went over realized price. I spoke about it on my show and I said, look, if this carries on for a certain period of time, then we all of a sudden are going to get people putting money into altcoins.

I think that's why we're seeing the beginning of an altcoin spike. Now, I just want to give one more prediction. If we break 31,400 and then Bitcoin actually does start to go up towards the 40,000, my prediction is that the altcoins will start running about 40 days after that. So why did I choose a number of 40? I basically went back to all the other times that Bitcoin spiked. And then I followed to see how long afterwards did an altcoin spike happen. And the average is about 40 days. In fact, it's about it's 30 to 60 days. But more and more of the spikes happen within 30 days. So

I'm saying on average, about 40 days after the Bitcoin spike, the altcoins actually start spiking. Right and NFTs are 60 days after that. So Mario, good news, your punk is going to go back up if it keeps continuing. I don't know if NFTs are, to be honest, I don't know if NFTs are a real market because I think the difference between NFTs and protocols is, you know, the NFT, you know, you saw a collection. Let's say that the collection was, I don't know what it was. I'm not really familiar with NFT collections, but let's say it's a fancy dogs or I don't know, Gucci handbags or I don't know.

I saw the vagina collection or whatever it was. I think that those may have been a fad at that point in time. And I think that for NFTs to have real use cases, we have to see a game where the functionality of NFTs actually lands up working. And I think that I keep saying it, and I don't really want to get into that discussion again, because Mario and I will just go head to head and head to head and head to head. But I think that the days of the, the, the, the JPEG NFT that says that you're part of a club because you actually

oh those days are in my mind long gone and now the nfts have to be combined with real utility on the other side just a quick comment on the nft market picked up over the last few days i think it's like 10 10 i think the flaws did you see joe are the update by mando then you went up by 10 so the nfts are following alts the looks of it, at least for now. So just something worth mentioning. But Scott, anything else to add? Mario, are you having a laser treatment on your back or something? Oh, man, I'm trying to move away from it so you don't start making fun of me.

Scott, save me, Scott. Go ahead, man. Actually, I'm tempted to just be silent to let you dangle there and have to answer for yourself. It does sound like you are in some sort of a machine, but we're used to that at this point. No, I don't think there's anything left to add. I think we covered it well.

What's going to be interesting, I think this is actually going, we say this often, but I think there's going to be a pretty big week in markets that are going to start to show us where things are headed. So I think we're going to have a lot to talk about in the next few days

cool well we'll see everyone tomorrow morning thanks everyone