The Wolf Of All Streets - Bullish On Bitcoin | Will Bitcoin Hit $120,000 By The End Of 2024?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Bitcoin printed its largest bullish candle in quite a long time yesterday, hitting highs around $66,000, over $66,000, causing, of course, people to start speculating on the high targets like $120,000 by the end of the year. But that's not an arbitrary number. That's based on call buying activity, people speculating that that's what the price will be by the end of the year. We're going to talk about, of course, what's happening in the market, but we're also going to talk about whether it matters or not, because I think we all know where Bitcoin is going long term. And when I want to talk about where Bitcoin is going long term, I bring on one of my favorite guests, Yago. Of course, we got Dan, the chart man, on the back half from chart guys let's go let's go what is up everybody I'm Scott Melker

Starting point is 00:01:01 also known as the wolf of all streets before get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit the little like button right down below. Not going to waste any time. Going to bring Yago on right now. Big news, man. Bitcoin went up, it went down, it went back up. It went sideways for a while, then it was down, then up. So, yeah. What does it mean to you? Nice. We need an alarm to wake me up. That was perfect. I mean, do you think that anything has fundamentally changed? I will tell you a few things here that are really interesting. And maybe I can actually open my newsletter because I summarized it, although I wasn't planning to. We did get a whole lot of filings of 13 Fs in the United States, just to give us some context on what's happening institutionally. And just in the last few days right here, Morgan Stanley owns $234 million

Starting point is 00:01:50 worth of Bitcoin ETF. Millennium Management, $2 billion in the ETF. Pine Ridge Advisors, $205. Susquehanna, more than $1 billion. So now that we're seeing the filings, Wisconsin bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin, right? So, I mean, price be damned, this is crazy. Yeah, I mean, it's just another sign of the fact that we've entered a new phase. We've entered a phase where Bitcoin is starting to mature. I mean, Bitcoin is, what, 15 years old right now, right? So you'd expect it to be going

Starting point is 00:02:26 through its maturity phase. It's sort of its adolescence. We're starting to see institutional involvement. We're starting to see a higher degree of regulatory acceptance, the ETF being the big story. We're seeing a huge amount of interest in development and building new things on Bitcoin. I think a lot of people think that they're too late. I think people don't realize just how early we are to the most important phase, the phase of maturity. Yeah. And there's kind of this slight, I think, cognitive dissonance or division in whether all this institutional adoption is good or bad,

Starting point is 00:03:04 whether it violates the very ethos of Bitcoin and, you know, dissonance or division in whether all this institutional adoption is good or bad, whether it violates the very ethos of Bitcoin and not your keys, not your coins, while all these people are buying ETFs. In my mind, though, as you said, it's the next phase. And if we want Bitcoin to become what everybody believes it can be, everyone has to participate, including Wall Street. Yeah, it's not. I mean, Bitcoin is built for enemies, not for friends, right? That's the whole point of it, that I don't need to like you to be able to transact with you. That is the point of money.

Starting point is 00:03:36 That is the point of decentralization. And that is the point of scalable trust systems. So, of course, we might not be happy that some people are choosing to do things, you know, through an ETF. But what difference does it make? It doesn't impact your ability to have self-custody at all. In fact, if anything, I think it enhances it. Right. The larger Bitcoin gets, the more secure it becomes, the more you can be secure in your holdings and the more layers of protection there are around Bitcoin. So Bitcoin is protected by the technology, but it's also protected by additional layers.

Starting point is 00:04:10 And one of those layers is social acceptance. The more socially acceptable Bitcoin becomes, the easier it is to spend, the less weird you appear when you're using it, and the less likely it is that you're going to be targeted in some kind of regulatory action. So I think from the perspective of security, defense and people's ability to use Bitcoin for the long term, this is all good. Yeah, I tend to agree with you on all of those takes, actually. And I think we've talked about this a lot and we're going to kind of spoil it. But Yago is starting a new show on this channel, actually. You guys might have seen that last time he was on, I said, hey, we should really have you do a show about this.

Starting point is 00:04:48 And you actually followed through, which is like the first of many people in my life to actually follow through on promises like that. And it's going to be amazing. And it's coming out this Saturday. But it's effectively about what's coming for Bitcoin beyond just store of value, digital gold, ETF, right? Because I think the biggest narrative I would argue of this cycle outside of stupid little bubbles like AI and whatever other nonsense we think might happen right now in crypto, everything is coming to Bitcoin right now. Well, I mean, look, you know that I've spent the last 10 years in the space building, right?

Starting point is 00:05:25 I've mostly avoided speculation. I've mostly avoided sort of trying to spend my time on Twitter. I've focused on building. And so for me now to invest a lot of time in putting out content is a bit of a strange thing. I'm a pretty private person. And the reason I'm doing it is because we had a conversation where you suggested that what I was talking about was going to be super important and interesting to a bunch of people. But I think, you know, the reason this is the moment is what we were talking about a moment ago, right? We are entering a new phase.

Starting point is 00:06:06 I think that this cycle is different from all of the cycles that we've seen before. I think what we're going to see in crypto is different. I think what we're going to see happen in Bitcoin is different. And I think it's got huge implications for developers, for users, and in particular, for anyone who's thinking about trying to invest their financial future in this space. And what's crazy to me is no one's talking about it. Some of the most plugged in people in sort of the crypto world and in the Bitcoin world seem to be unaware of the crazy stuff that's happening right now. And so it suddenly seemed important to me

Starting point is 00:06:45 that we need to talk about what is going on. Yeah. And also to sort through what's complete vaporware now coming to Bitcoin and what's actually real. I don't know if it was you or somebody else on Spaces that said, listen, if somebody all of a sudden was developing on Bitcoin starting in 2023, you can pretty much like outright dismiss that person as a cash grab, right? I mean, people like you and of course, Stacks, Muneeb and others have been building

Starting point is 00:07:15 and attempting to do these things even before Taproot existed and you knew it was possible. Yeah. So, I mean, I think theoretically we always knew it was possible, like in the in the olden days, there was this line in Bitcoin, right? There was this meme that anything that's useful to Bitcoin will simply be adopted by Bitcoin. And we've gone through a really long period where everything has been unbundled, right? So you've got like, for every different thing that people want to do there's a new chain there's a smart contract chain there's a fast transaction chain there's a cheap transaction chain there's a privacy chain etc etc etc and that's a normal thing in every

Starting point is 00:07:55 single new industry especially in innovative industries they always start out with this massive fragmentation huge numbers of new players tried to get into the space. And what these players are doing is they're exploring the potential design space. And then things change. And the whole industry shifts from a phase of fragmentation to a phase of consolidation. And if you're not paying attention, then you completely miss the boat. And I think that's one of the ways that this halving and this cycle is so different from the others.

Starting point is 00:08:33 All of the others have been marked by this fragmentation and your job was to try and figure out sort of what is the next new design space that people are going to explore. And I think that we've got a lot of signs now that we're going to be shifting into a rebundling into the consolidation phase. And I think that means that we need totally different mental models. If you're a developer and you're thinking where and what to build, you need a different

Starting point is 00:08:57 mental model. And if you're an investor, you need a totally different mental model. Yeah. Interestingly, we've hinted at the idea to that point that maybe everything else ended up being a test net for Bitcoin. The best ideas that were tried in other places will come back. And interestingly, I was interviewing, actually, Mario and I were interviewing Brock Pierce and a couple of others in Dubai. And Brock said, when you're the biggest, you don't give a shit, basically. He said, you can wait, you can see what happens everywhere else, and you can be as slow as you

Starting point is 00:09:31 want and deliberate, and eventually you're still going to win. And I mean, it's the same idea, but I'd really never thought about it in context. It literally doesn't matter how far development on Bitcoin is behind the others, because if that's where it's going to land, if that's where the money is, if that's where the security is, then two years, five years, 10 years doesn't make any difference. Yeah. Plus, you know, it's the brand, it's the user base, it's the regulatory acceptance. It's like in so many ways, Bitcoin has always pulled away from all of the other stuff that's happening in this space. And so I think, you know, talking about all of this

Starting point is 00:10:13 other stuff as testnets for Bitcoin does make a lot of sense. And I think a lot of people are starting to get the feeling, right, because of ordinals, because of runes, that something is going on. And so we've started to see a lot of projects talking about Bitcoin layer twos, Bitcoin rollups. And, you know, you mentioned a moment ago, a lot of it isn't real. And in crypto, that is the best sign that something is important when a lot of people are trying to fake it. And so we're seeing a lot of that. Being able to differentiate between what's real and what's fake is very, very hard. And it's another reason why I think it's important to be able to go deeper into the subject. Yeah. And as we go deeper, which things do you think have a legitimate chance of coming to fruition in this cycle, let's say, you know, through 2025

Starting point is 00:11:13 and how many of them are sort of dreams for the future? I mean, I know you've been working very hard on roll-ups. Is that something that's going to happen now? So my view is that because I'm working on it on a day-to-day basis, I see the progress, right? And I see how competitive the space is and how many brilliant minds it's sucking into it. I'm convinced that it's going to happen by the end of 2025. In fact, I think that there's a very good chance that we're going to see the first zero knowledge proofs validated on Bitcoin before the end of this year. We're going to see the first real roll ups before the end of this year. And to sort of set this in context and why this is such a big deal. If you think about the crypto space as a whole over the last 10, 14 years, it's basically been an attempt to answer one single question, which is what can Bitcoin not do? Right. So Bitcoin can't do really cheap transactions. You get Ripple. Bitcoin can't do

Starting point is 00:12:18 really private transactions. You get Monero. Bitcoin can't do smart contracts. You get Ethereum and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. The entire space sort of grew up as an answer to the question, what can Bitcoin not do? And so another way to think about how big the change is right now is over the next six months, I think we're going to start seeing the world realize that the answer to the question, what can Bitcoin not do, is nothing. There's nothing that Bitcoin not do is nothing, right? There's nothing that Bitcoin cannot do. That is a huge change. And it's going to be a massive mindfuck and require a huge shift in development. So yeah, I think that's definitely coming now.

Starting point is 00:13:03 Like it's not tomorrow, but over the next few months. Now, and because of that, we're already seeing a bunch of projects saying, you know, we're already doing it. They're not, but it's so close. But so this all sort of accidentally happened with Taproot, right? And that the having the ability to do runes, but this wasn't all always inevitable. Is that true? Mm hmm. I think it was always inevitable in one way or another.

Starting point is 00:13:29 And the reason is that Bitcoin actually is digital money, right? It is programmable. It's a programmable system. And one of the funny things about programmability is if you sort of give just a little opening to programmability, you can build anything, right? If you think about the space shuttle that went to the moon, it had the computing power of a calculator, right? A pocket calculator. So with enough effort, you can basically build a Turing complete machine into anything.

Starting point is 00:14:01 What Taproot did was not intended by the devs. It basically introduced new, more complex cryptography into Bitcoin. And then nothing happened. It was like people thought Taproot was a complete failure because no one was using it. It took about two years for people to figure out how they could actually build software inside of this complex cryptography. And the last year has seen an absolute explosion in the kind of development that is being done. So Taproot, everyone kind of knew that Taproot would have, would introduce new possibilities into Bitcoin transactions. But I think people didn't realize before you had like two years of people just really trying to tear it apart, didn't realize how significant the change to Bitcoin was. is fast and cheap look like? Because even with the introduction of runes and all these things,

Starting point is 00:15:07 it at least temporarily made it slower and more expensive. So I think a lot of people get confused. We had the innovation, but then the mempool got completely flooded. And if you wanted to get a transaction through, you had to pay an exceptionally high fee. So people have been viewing it the other way. They're saying, listen, now Bitcoin's only for the rich people because nobody else can afford to use this and everybody's going to send Tether on Tron. Yeah, and that's not going to change, right? If you think about Bitcoin as a chain, and a lot of people think about Bitcoin as a chain, but I think thinking about Bitcoin as a chain is a mistake in the same way that thinking about Ethereum as a chain is a mistake. So if you look at Ethereum, what is Ethereum?

Starting point is 00:15:49 Ethereum has a bunch of different network effects built into it, right? ETH is one, the proof of stake system currently that people are trying to export now using Eigen layer is another one. So it's proof of stake system. The EVM, right, the system for building smart contracts is another one. ERC-20s is another standard. And sort of all of these are built as part of a stack. And most of them now don't actually primarily exist on just Ethereum, the chain, right? So you've got many, many EVM compatible chains. You've got multiple different roll-ups. So what we're going to see with Bitcoin is I think quite similar, but much more significant. So Bitcoin main chain is going to only get more and more expensive. I think the age of Bitcoin, cheap Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:16:40 transactions is basically over. You've got four megabytes of space every 10 minutes. That's nothing. And so that digital space is going to become the most scarce thing in the world. And then around Bitcoin, you're going to have this entire ecosystem, network of systems, roll-ups, built that aggregate huge amounts of transaction,

Starting point is 00:17:03 compress them into a single Bitcoin transaction and compete furiously among themselves for the ability to transact on the main chain or what I think people are going to start calling the settlement chain, the settlement layer. In a way, a lot of people always thought that that was where Bitcoin was going to go. But it always seemed to be going in the other direction. Bitcoin transactions seem to be staying cheap while other chains got expensive. And, you know, people were only using it for BTC transactions like peer to peer.

Starting point is 00:17:33 There wasn't a lot of settlement actually happening on Bitcoin. And I think we're going to significantly see a change in how Bitcoin is used. And actually, how does this tie back into Taproot? Well, what Taproot did, basically, the new thing that it did is it allowed you to take a whole bunch of potential transactions and bundle them together into a single Bitcoin transaction.

Starting point is 00:17:53 And that means that you can now do really complicated transactions. You can do many, many transactions and you can bundle them together, write them to Bitcoin and get them the security of a Bitcoin transaction. That is where the magic is coming from. The more I think about it, the more I realize how absolutely huge it's going to be.

Starting point is 00:18:15 And then, I mean, going back to the Wall Street side and the institutional adoption that we're seeing just come in floods, as we kind of said, now the CME is looking to take on Binance and Coinbase, could launch spot Bitcoin trading. So the CME obviously onshore, the largest future exchange, completely regulated. If they come into spot Bitcoin, man, I don't even know what to say. It's absolutely wild that they're now considering this because that was completely off their radar for a very, very long time. And for them to consider it, it means that they see just massive opportunity. Look, I mean, one of the things that we've been talking about for years, and we've sort of gotten glimpses of, is talking about crypto as a way to decentralize the world

Starting point is 00:19:00 or Web3, you know, this whole new decentralized internet, and it hasn't really taken off. And the reason it hasn't really taken off is because where are you going to build it? Are you going to build it on Solana? Are you going to build it on Polygon? Are you going to build it on Ethereum? All of them are constantly changing, really complicated. They're kind of stuck in this competitive environment where each one could tomorrow be the biggest one or disappear.

Starting point is 00:19:21 It's a very uncertain environment, and it's only got limited reach right um but bitcoin is different bitcoin we know it's here to stay bitcoin has massive brand appeal massive reach and so when it gets significant new capabilities right you think like the experience that blackrock are running with real world assets on eth, they're going to want to do on Ethereum long term? These are assets that need to be held for 10 or 20 years to maturity. Who knows what Ethereum looks like in 10 or 20 years? But Bitcoin, you know exactly what it's going to look like in 10 or 20 years. It's going to look is over the next 10 years, in this phase of maturity, we're going to see things like the ETF and CME come into spot trading.

Starting point is 00:20:10 And that will be sort of like on the trading side. But even more exciting is all of these use cases that we've been talking about, real world assets, DAOs that actually control real parts of our lives. Web3, decentralized social. All of this is going to be able to happen now if there is like a single standard chain that everyone knows is going to be there for the next 10 years and is going to continue to be the leader. That's the big deal. But it all is going to have to happen on layer twos, right? And so we've seen sort of the layer two narrative is going to have to happen on layer twos, right? And so we've seen sort of the layer two narrative is starting to lose some steam on Ethereum. Certainly, maybe that's because Bitcoin's taking it. To some degree, it's because a lot of people are starting to believe, whether rightfully or not, that Solana or another layer one could capture the bulk of it without the complexity of layer twos. So do you think that we're going to have the same kind of layer two problems initially that we had with Ethereum where bridging is difficult and it's

Starting point is 00:21:10 confusing and the UX UI is trash? Or do you think that we've learned those lessons and they'll be built the right way from the beginning? No, no. It's definitely going to suck at the beginning, like any new sort of bleeding edge technology but a lot of lessons have been learned and so the rate of improvement and the ability to introduce composability good ux interoperability is going to come much much faster to bitcoin right it will come roughly at the same time to ethereum but ethereum you, layer twos have been out for four years. People have been building on them for a while now. And all of those benefits are effectively going to get copy pasted to Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:21:55 So Ethereum is in this weird position, right? It's kind of getting chewed at from both sides. It is. You've got Solana, which is saying, look, for today, if you want the smoothest, cheapest, fastest, easiest experience, just come here, right? Solana are not claiming that they're going to be sort of the winning platform forever.

Starting point is 00:22:15 Or if they are, they shouldn't be. You know, their approach to scaling doesn't necessarily last five years into the future. But for now, they are absolutely the best place to go speculate, degen, gamble, and a whole lot of other stuff. So, you know, they're nibbling on Ethereum from that side. And then Bitcoin on the other side is saying, OK, you want like top brand, most biggest network, highest value, most established chain with all the technology. OK, we're going to come in from the other side. And so Ethereum is in this really weird situation where it's getting squeezed.

Starting point is 00:22:50 And so I think we're going to see some successful projects like Solana. But ultimately, it's so easy to copy paste the Solana technology, the Solana dApps, the Solana user base from one chain to another that we're going to start seeing consolidation. So either Solana will develop new scaling technologies and try to continue to compute into the future or someone else will. But ultimately, everyone is going to have to consider that they're building in a world where there is consolidation and Bitcoin has a huge lead when it comes to consolidation. Yeah, that makes sense. If we believe that Solana eventually would have to go beyond layer one to scale, then it makes a lot of sense that it will all accrue to Bitcoin in the end.

Starting point is 00:23:40 Anyways, right. One other story that I got to share because we didn't talk about it. I'm not sure if you saw this, but Vanguard CEO obviously stepped down and a lot of people said, ha, he stepped down because he refused to accept the Bitcoin spot ETF. And then I said, you're literally fucking Salim Ramji, is coming in as the CEO of Vanguard. Now, I don't think the first guy got fired having anything to do with Bitcoin. Actually, he stepped down. I think he's just rich and doesn't care anymore. But we now have the chance that Vanguard,

Starting point is 00:24:17 the biggest holdout, you know, hashtag boycott Vanguard, could come in. This is the second largest asset manager in the world after BlackRock. Right. Look, I mean, there's this line, right? Progress is made one funeral at a time. There's two things. I tend to talk about the long term. And in the long term, if you think about every single generation had to make one good financial decision and they were set for life, even if they fucked up a whole bunch of other stuff. Our grandparents' generation, if they

Starting point is 00:24:49 just got a college degree, they were set for life. Our parents' generation, if they just bought a house, even with a big mortgage, they were set for life. For our generation, it's being in crypto and specifically, I think being in Bitcoin, you should think of that as your house. But that's a long-term view and it's happening because every single young person has had, or most pretty much every single young person has played with crypto. We are crypto natives in a way that we're not Vanguard natives. People understand our generation and younger understand crypto way better than they understand Vanguard. That's a generational shift and you're seeing it at the top of Vanguard.

Starting point is 00:25:31 But in the very, very near term, there's also something really exciting happening because, you know, crypto moves one halving at a time, not just one funeral at a time. And each halving has a major narrative. And it's really hard, if you're not paying attention right now, to identify the major narrative. People are saying, is it Solana? No, it can't be Solana.

Starting point is 00:25:56 Solana is sort of like last time. It's a narrative from last time. And it's definitely not DeFi, and it's definitely not NFTs. We've kind of done these things. Each narrative has gone sort of one you know, one time to be, have its halving in the sun the first time it enters the market. And the reason people are having a difficult time identifying it is because they're looking in the wrong place.

Starting point is 00:26:15 They're looking in the places they've used to look, which is like the extra fragmentation. If you think that we're moving into the phase of consolidation, if you think about the fact that Bitcoin is now getting the ability to do anything, then the place that you should be looking is this massive blue ocean. I think just one piece of data that's worth noting, Bitcoin is a $1.3 trillion asset. Okay, now how big is Ethereum? How big is Solana and all of the meme coins and dApps and tokens built in that it's still less than half it's about 700 billion it's less than half the entire size of Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:26:55 so think about that massive ocean that massive like achievement unlocked we're getting now right so you just need to sort of like figure out what worked on Ethereum, what worked on Solana, what is going to be the version of that in Bitcoin. You place your short term bets there. And I think it's very hard to go wrong. So I know we're kind of running out of time here and you've got some serious things that you're dealing with in your life. We've probably got to go. But let's talk about this show really quickly, because I think we just sort, you and I always have these sort of top level conversations about all these things, but guys, this is actually one of the first shows we're doing. It's recorded, it's produced, it's edited. It's not just me showing up and hoping that I find something interesting to

Starting point is 00:27:38 talk about. So you're going to really dive deep into these topics. I mean, I've obviously seen it, so I know, but just to give them the quick preview and it's coming out again Saturday, guys, on my channel here. So, you know, I've been, I've started a number of businesses. I've been doing technology in Bitcoin for the last 10 years, and I've had a really unique approach to Bitcoin. I'm sort of like a maxi, but I believe in tokens in Bitcoin. I believe in looking at Ethereum. I believe in, you know, sort of a Bitcoin accelerationist and a maxi. And so what I want to try and do is I hate how much it really upsets me. This is something I care so much about. It upsets me how many scams there are, how much it really upsets me. This is something I care so much about. It upsets me how many scams there are,

Starting point is 00:28:29 how much misinformation there is, how many people are not aware of the most interesting things that are happening. So my goal is going to be to give the big picture of the technological shift, the business landscape shift. And to do it personally based on sort of my experience and the work that I'm

Starting point is 00:28:45 doing right now, and personally by bringing the most interesting innovators in the space from Bitcoin and outside of it, and, you know, providing sort of like the alpha that most people don't see, but that, you know, everyone knows that they're like chat groups and WhatsApp groups, right, where people are discussing sort of what to invest in, what's happening that are closed. I want to try and open that up a bit. And so that's what I want to try and do with Bitcoin Alpha. I want to expose people to what I think is the most exciting, interesting, and potentially meaningful things that are happening right now. Absolutely love it. Guys, it's amazing and it will only evolve to be better. But since

Starting point is 00:29:27 this is not my core competency, but I think it's exceptionally important that we all understand what is being built on Bitcoin and to your point, what's actually real and what might end up being vaporware, you're the guy to do it. So I'm really, really happy that you accepted the offer, that you're going to go ahead and do that. And guys, tune in. It will be on the channel on Saturday. Yago man, thank you so much. Thank you, Scott. Listen, I want to thank you because I mean, you've managed to do an amazing job of educating people and building a huge platform and building an environment that people like, like a channel that people can trust. And so the fact that I get to piggyback off that

Starting point is 00:30:01 without having to do all of that work, that's huge. So thank you. My favorite thing is this guy said clearly when I said that it's not my core competency. Hey, you got to admit the things that you're not the best at and find the people who are, guys. That's why you don't want to be the smartest person in the room. So guys, you should also follow Yago on X.

Starting point is 00:30:19 It's tagged down below in the comments. And we'll see him on Saturday and probably a lot more often on the channel and space as well. Thanks, man. Speak to you soon. Thanks, Scott. All right, guys, before we move on to Dan, of course, we're going to talk about, I never know which way to point, Dega, our amazing sponsor. You may have seen on Crypto Town Hall. You may have seen on Greatest Hits like my newsletter, and you may have seen on Greatest Hits,

Starting point is 00:30:45 like my newsletter, and you may have seen on this show. But the reason that we've accepted them as a sponsor is because conceptually, this is really freaking cool. Obviously, as you can see, design, deploy, and monetize games in minutes, your story, your world.

Starting point is 00:31:01 The idea here is it abstracts away all of the complexity in creating and building in Web3 and gives you a platform where anyone is able to build something so you don't have to be a programmer. You don't have to have deep knowledge of blockchain to be able to actually participate. It's just like Yago and I were just talking about the UX, UI, the complexity is terrible. It's very hard to get mainstream involved. Well, Dega, and I'm hoping they can do it, they are working very hard to eliminate that complexity and allow everybody to be able to participate. So I ask you to go down in the comments,

Starting point is 00:31:36 check them out. And now it is time to look at the charts. Bullish on Bitcoin. Well, Bitcoin hit 120,000 option flow. We did have a big move yesterday. I'm going to be honest. I still think we're chopping. Yeah. I mean, it's honestly, at this point, we're laggers just in the sense that the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are both right at all-time highs. So in that regard, maybe there's some ketchup to be had. We know here we've got another, what, 12% that we need to go to get back to all time highs. But, you know, as you mentioned, sideways is definitely still on the table. Obviously, I'm bullish. Everything in the market is telling me bull, whether it's S&P 500, NASDAQ, the dollar, you know, looking for a monthly lower high.

Starting point is 00:32:18 And it's longer term tightening range to potentially continue through the summer. You've got gold with its weekly bull flag knocking on the door of all time highs. So I'm very much bullish and Bitcoin is a part of that. But I look around at a lot of these coins like Sol and we can say that, okay, on this pullback, 35%, and then we set a lower high and chop sideways. This was 44%. We can definitely do this a lot of the summer. And so just prepare for it. And as I'm sure you saw, people were extremely impatient during this last consolidation, while people like you and I are like, guys, this is perfectly fine and healthy consolidation. It has to happen at some point. And yes, it's slow, but the retracement sizes are not significant. So it's

Starting point is 00:33:02 a win for the bulls. Yeah, I agree. Listen, there's nothing bad here. I just don't know that we should ascribe too much significance to one day of price action. That's my feeling on it. Because we did the same thing on like Monday. I mean, Bitcoin went up like a couple thousand bucks and everybody said bull market's back. And to me, I just see like a range and we're still in the bottom half of it. So if we flip 67, sort of the middle of that range, I think it's likely we visit the

Starting point is 00:33:33 highs that we go into the 70s, but that would still be ranging to me. Yeah. I mean, this is the weekly chart. And again, if we head up and can't break it and then pull back for a weekly higher low, next thing you know, we're into June. And that's also aligning with what the dollar could potentially do. The dollar is dropping, but we haven't confirmed a weekly downtrend yet. So the dollar needs to see a weekly lower high and lower low. And it wouldn't be surprising if markets, SPY, Bitcoin, et cetera, need to see a weekly higher low and then continue. Because SPY, straight up V-shaped, that's great. It's extremely bullish, but we know eventually there's going to have to be a weekly pullback to establish a new higher low to try and keep

Starting point is 00:34:14 this going. So again, just be patient in the summer. Volume slows down massively. We're already seeing it in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and it's not necessarily a bad thing. It's a common pattern. It just means patient. This has been historically low volume, actually, on the stock market. Last week, I think it was the only time in 30 or 40 years we'd had two consecutive days of sub, I don't remember what the volume was, but some number of volume. I mean, it's historically low volume. Yeah. And one thing I want to differentiate is I was trained in technical analysis and trading that you need increasing bull volume to have confidence and follow through. Volume is the

Starting point is 00:34:54 prove it indicator. And with these ETFs, that's not the case. If you go back to 2017 and look at that run, it was just all declining volume and straight up. Generally, you have the volume climaxes at bottoms. And then here, the average volume for SPY dropped 20% as we went into melt-up mode. And so same thing here, the bottom, we have high volume and now the volume's dropping off 15% on average. And it's again, V-shaped. So the market is designed to go up and these ETFs don't need high bull volume to go up. I just want to make sure people are aware of that distinction. But individual coin, individual stock, you do want to see increasing bull volume on moves up and on breaks. So what else are you watching now in context of this general bullish market that you're

Starting point is 00:35:42 viewing that has to mean you're trying to participate? Oh yeah, definitely participating. Before I get to that, one more thing that I want viewers to know here is, number one, don't try and nail a top in a blue sky, extremely strong trending market. The bears are not sneaky. We cannot drop without massive bear volume in any meaningful way. And there's another thing that I've been noticing over the years. You have to see XLF financial sector, XLV healthcare, and QQQ, which encompasses a lot of tech and semiconductors. They all have to be dropping and hitting the low of the day at the same time to flash a signal in your brain that this is meaningful because the market is a master at bullish rotation. The NASDAQ pulls back. The financial sector, as we speak, is hitting all-time highs. And it does this tag team game. But when all of them hit the lows at the same time, that's my signal to grab hedges. And then I stick a stop over whatever the high is at that point.

Starting point is 00:36:35 And that's exactly what happened last time around. All bull. This was the first time all sectors hit the low at the same time. And then we had this big follow through. It's almost like a little warning signal like, hey, this might be a real drop coming. And if that does not happen, just stay long because the bears do not prove anything. So I know people look at things and say, oh, it's extended or my fundamental narrative or whatever. Just don't fight blue sky bulls. Absolutely. Could not agree more.

Starting point is 00:37:03 So what else you got up there? All right. So the miners I talked were following up from last time, still watching, coin is not a miner, obviously, but watching potential daily falling wedge on coin, trying to shape up, trying to be a little bit of a laggard, as I mentioned, not only to the broader market, but also to Bitcoin as well. It hasn't seen a big move up yet. So keep an eye on coin, the miners, both metals and crypto, and looking at MARA trying to get back to 2103, which is six week highs. And again, just treating them as laggards, essentially. And so watching, can they catch a bid? Can they see some, this is where I want to see volume. I need to see volume to show me that things are shifting here. And as I mentioned,

Starting point is 00:37:43 you got silver on the verge of 13-year highs. You want to be paying attention to names near all-time highs or near decade-plus highs. And so these miners just hit two-year highs yesterday. And so I'm just watching GDX and the leveraged versions of that, NUGT for the metal miners, and then of course, MARA for the crypto miners. And those are my, well, at least the crypto miners are my laggard watch in terms of, okay, everything's bullish. Are we going to start seeing people start to get more aggressive with their risk on mindset in the markets? Yeah. I wonder if how much of that is still having related or how much of it is just that people are focused on ETFs?

Starting point is 00:38:25 Yeah, I think there's going to be some consolidation in the mining industry. There will definitely be winners and a bunch of losers, but keeping an eye out for that relative strength. Again, I just do like MARA divided by Riot and say, okay, MARA has been much stronger than Riot the last few days, and it's trying to get back to the strongest it's been in a year plus. And so those are the kinds of things, comparative analysis of individual names that help us identify relative strength and weakness. And that helps save me from having to read balance sheets and try and guess based on fundamentals. Yeah, absolutely. All right, man. Well, that's all we got, I think. Look at the tabs. Is there one more? Silver, no. Keep an eye on the dollar. We want the dollar to weaken and continue pulling back. And ideally, eventually, one more quick look, ideally break this monthly support. It can easily

Starting point is 00:39:17 tighten up for most of this year. And we pull back for a couple of months, but hold. And then we're into the Q3, Q4. But if we can drop down below this level, it's going to be some significant euphoria going on in markets, in my opinion. I'm here for the euphoria. Let's see it happen. All right, man. Well, everybody, of course, follow Dan, the chart guys on X. Check out his YouTube videos, everything else. And we'll be back next Thursday. All right, Scott. Have a good one. Let's hope we're talking about how everything still seems bullish in a week.

Starting point is 00:39:49 I'll take it. I think we will. But if we don't, it will be all of those major sectors in the stock market hitting the low of the day at the same time. It will tell us things are shifting. See, guys, you've got to know what the signals are. All right, man. Thank you so much, everybody.

Starting point is 00:40:01 See you tomorrow morning and this afternoon for Market Mavericks. Later. Thanks, Dan.

The Wolf Of All Streets - Bullish On Bitcoin | Will Bitcoin Hit $120,000 By The End Of 2024?

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