The Wolf Of All Streets - Buy Bitcoin When The Market Crashes | Harry Dent Jr., Best-Selling Financial Author

Episode Date: October 26, 2021

Harry Dent Jr. is considered one of the greatest financial commentators of our time. It is his belief that a major financial reset is right around the corner, largely due to the FED’s carefree and haphazard monetary policy. When this crash happens, on the top of Harry’s purchase list is our favorite asset, cryptocurrencies. Harry has written numerous bestsellers, runs his own firm, and has been right numerous times in the past. Listen to this episode and decide for yourself if you think the markets are setting up for a epic crash. -- Sorare: Where fantasy meets reality. Collect, trade and earn weekly prizes on https://thewolfofallstreets.link/sorare. #OwnYourGame --- If you enjoyed this conversation, share it with your colleagues & friends, rate, review, and subscribe. This podcast is presented by Blockworks. For exclusive content and events that provide insights into the crypto and blockchain space, visit them at: https://www.blockworks.co ーーー Join the Wolf Den newsletter: ►►https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/members

This episode is brought to you by SoRare. Stay tuned for more information on them later in the episode. What's up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, and this is the Wolf of Wall Street's podcast, where twice a week I talk to your favorite personalities from the worlds of Bitcoin, finance, trading, art, music, sports, and politics. Basically anyone with a good story to tell. Now, if you know me, you know that I love to write

about and to speak about financial markets. Well, today's guest is one of the best who has ever done it. Harry Dent Jr. is a bestselling author and the founder of an investment firm that developed a unique method for studying economies around the world and uses his analysis to provide insights on what to expect in the future. Not only that, he's been featured basically everywhere from Good Morning America to CNN, CNBC, Fox News, and of course, now the Wolf of All Streets podcast. It's my hope today that Harry will share his insights on what's happening currently with the market and what we can expect in the near future. Harry Dent, it is a pleasure to have you on. Yeah, nice to be back, Scott.

Now, Harry, the government has talked about minting a trillion dollar platinum coin to offset inflation. What do you think about that? You know, I don't know what to think of that. It's just all I know is when you see anything escalating exponentially, like they've been printing more, we printed more in the last year and a half, just since COVID, than we did in the entire, you know, eight or nine years of nonstop money printing before that, after the 2008-9 crisis. So when you have to keep doing all these crazy things to keep a bubble going, it should be embarrassing. People should say, well, what's wrong with these people?

And I don't understand why people understand. You mean we have to keep printing? We have to print another couple of trillion dollars. We have to print 10 or 20 percent a year just to keep GDP growing on average one and a half to two percent. And we're lucky, you know, it should be obvious, but it's not. And partly what happens, I tell people it's like like we're hot. You know, we've been on this this addiction of constant money printing. And no matter what you're sitting on, homes, stocks, anything, it just goes up and up and up way longer than it should have.

Most of these things should have peaked in 2007 when the baby boomers peaked in spending. So everybody's high and everybody's gotten a benefit from this. So people are just like, well, I guess it's OK. Now, my view from studying history, the higher you push a bubble or the longer you push a trend, especially beyond natural cycles and times, the worse it gets when it crashes. So I'm not consoled by all this stuff at all. And every new trick is just like, come on, why don't you guys get real? And they can't, though. I mean, the central banks, it's not just the Fed, all around the world have so printed money so long, and the economy is so addicted. It's literally an addiction to this now.

Just in 2018, they just flattened out not too long ago, and then everything fell apart. You had the repo crisis and all this sort of stuff. And then COVID hit. And the problem, Scott, is COVID gave them the excuse they really wanted to just go full bore out. Like I said, printed more since COVID than all, far more. I think it's up to $4.9 trillion. They only printed about $3.6 trillion from 2008 up until COVID. So this is crazy. And as an investor, you got to say something's wrong here. And I've been telling people, and I think we're getting very close to it now. It's possible we

already peaked. I'm guessing one more rally in the markets here, maybe in the year. But you got to protect your assets. And the good news is when we we get this reset, I call it a reset of real estate prices, I say, everything's going to be the sale, I've always called it the sale of a lifetime, so that you and your kids, because because a lot of, you know, young people, we have kids and stuff, and they're starting to invest. And I mean, if you're young today starting to invest, you have no chance of making money at these valuations, even without my predictions of demographic weakness and cycles down and all this stuff. Just even if it was good times and you bought this high valuation, they say you have almost no chance of making money. So this is going to clear the decks and give us a good investing

environment again for the next boom. And I've said this, Scott, forever, that the next boom comes with the millennials from sometime in 2023 into 2037. That's the next big stock run. So if it can crash 60, 70, 80, even 90% first, oh my God, that's going to be an incredible opportunity. But you're not going to have it if you sit through this and watch it go down or if you say, well, I'm going to wait to see if Harry and some of the people like him are right. Other thing I warned Scott, and this is ironclad research, every major stock bubble in the last 150 years, first crash tends to be 46% in 2.3 months, okay? And anywhere from 40.

And this one, my models are saying, because it's been pushed longer, over 50% right off the bat in a couple of months. So if you wait, most people aren't that bad, you're probably going to sell when the first crash bottom, then it's going to bounce for months and make you feel like an idiot. And then it's going to go down for a couple of years. So this is this is something we have not seen in our lifetime. And that's why it's, I hate to say it, it's hard for me to warn about it, because people can't relate to it. Every crash we've had has been brief. And next thing you know, a few years later, you're at new highs. You will not see new highs after this crash for maybe two decades or more, if that. So that's a different story.

I love your description of how people will react to that because humans are so incredibly predictable and always react the same, right? They sell the bottom, buy back on the dead cat bounce, and then refuse to sell all the way down to the bottom. And it happens with every single bubble and cycle. It's really interesting to see that psychology consistently play out over and over again. But what you're talking about here is this endless money printing, this addiction to money printing, obviously, as you said, 4.5 trillion has been printed and we're already seeing articles and studies saying, is the United States already back in a recession? And so clearly it's not working, but doesn't that lead to potentially the idea that inflation isn't really the problem,

right? That perhaps we're just fighting a natural deflationary force in the world. Jeff Booth's one of my favorite authors. I talk to him about it all the time. That perhaps this is just fighting inevitable deflation, and there's no way to do that, and the depression is coming. That is absolutely the case. Again, all the way back to the 80s, when I got my tools together, demographics, spending wave, booms and busts, technology cycle,

nailed all this stuff down, said 2008 to 2023 would be a deflationary period. So that's exactly what happened. The difference about the 2008 recession versus the 2001 and the 1990 and the one before that is that we didn't have this, Oh, my gosh. I mean, the central bank started to see deflation. And the only time we've seen deflation was back in the 1930s. It's the death. It is the ultimate killer of financial assets and creator of unemployment. So so they panic. That's why they have responded so much stronger to this. But that is the trend. All of this money printing now since late 2008, early 2009, and as I've been warning, they're going to have to do exponentially more, exponentially

more. And we've seen that in Spain since COVID and even before. They're just, they're winning a game you can't win. You can't keep printing exponentially more money and not have a big blow up at some point. And the dangerous fact here is that with the printing so much in a year and a half, we are already weakening. In fact, the scariest thing I've seen comes from the Fed itself. The Atlanta Fed has a model and they're predicting, they were saying 3%, they're predicting GDP is going to go down to 1.3% ahead. 1.3% after this much stimulus, if that's not telling you this economy is deader than a doornail, and now it's finally showing that they keep upping exponentially, but they're not getting commensurate, they're not even getting the same response, they're getting a lower response. When has the economy collapsed this fast after this much stimulus? And the answer is never. So yeah,

the signs are very clear here. But if you just look at the stock market, it keeps creeping up. You'd say, well, it seems to be OK. Well, one day it won't be. And I say that day is coming in the next few months at most, and maybe already. I always try to avoid making grand predictions tied to dates because I'm always wrong and it makes me look bad. Obviously, I remember you had an interview, I believe, in February where you thought that would happen in April. But like I said, it's impossible to put a date on it. But why do you think that this continues to happen? Why don't you think that we've seen that crash come? I mean, it really could have rationally come at any point in the last 12 to 13 years, right? It could have actually in the early stages of 2011, 12,

when I started to say, well, hey, yeah, we've come out of it. We got to realize this is all stimulus. This is not baby boomers spending more money naturally and positive demographics and the type of cycles that were so good from 1983 to 2007. That was a real boom. Now, it was hyped by Fed stimulation, but that was not the real reason. Well, ever since then, it's been that. So that's the problem. Now, I am seeing signs. That's what I'm looking for. OK. They keep stepping up. I keep thinking the Fed's going to show some restraint. They haven't. They're talking about it, but they still haven't even here. OK. They were talking a few months ago. Well, by November, we're going to taper. Well, they're not even talking about that right now. They're kind of like, well, maybe we won't.

Me seeing that the underlying numbers, the GDP is slowing already. There's no question about that. And even the Fed. I mean, come on. The Fed is the last person wants to admit this. Their model is saying that we're slowing fast, not slow. That's a death. I mean, I mean, there's a point where consumers know that there's something wrong with endlessly planning money. How can you create growth with something for nothing? It's the most obvious something for nothing. Oh, we just print money and the economy keeps going. Well, what you're doing is you're just stretching something that was already overstretched in 2007 and stretching it again and again and again.

And, you know, that rubber, you know, well, there's a point. And I've been telling people that it is hard now. There's a point where it will just blow regardless of what they do. And that's looked like it could happen any time for many years. But this sign, this stimulus, this stimulus was just off the charts. I mean, I never would have thought that highly educated PhD financial expert, you know, and, you know, the Fed would go this far. It's so obviously desperate.

I mean, again, I just don't know. There's no common sense here at all in politicians and Fed officials and Wall Street analysts that you can't stretch something forever, especially when the fundamental trends are down. And I'm telling you, I trust my own stuff. I'm the only guy that has good, solid fundamental trends, because I was the only guy that saw how great this boom would be way back in the early to mid 80s, when everybody thought it was just the bounce from the 70s before we went back down again, and Japan kept kicking

our ass. I was the only guy that said, no, this could be the greatest boom in history. So now people, oh, Harry's a perma bear. I was the most bullish guy in all of history. So I'm not a perma bear. So you should listen to me when I say it's over. But it has been true. The central banks have gone farther than I would have thought any. I know they kind of have to do it. I get that because they've already seen when they pull back a little bit, the economy responds immediately like 2018 and the repo crisis. But I would not have thought they would have gone to this extremes and they have. And that's a really bad sign. It shows how desperate they are and how weak the economy actually is.

Yeah, I don't think it's an indictment of their intelligence, as you sort of mentioned. I think it's expected because they want to keep their jobs, frankly. they're actually right in a way they've already tested this in 2017, 18 and realized we even pull back. We even just flatten, you know, just we're not taking money off the table. We're just not adding more stimulus, you know, and we start to have problems in the markets and repo price, all this stuff immediately. So they know, they know that if they don't keep doing this,

they keep looking signs for a sustainable recovery. And I would even say, well, maybe that could happen, although I know it can't because I know the fundamental. But again, I'm looking under the hood. GDP's weakening this fast. No, it's not working. I mean, you mentioned before that they talk about potentially tapering and the process for doing that.

What's incredible is that we now live in a world where the markets don't react to the actions. They react to the very tone that the person speaking about them takes. If that isn't absurd, I don't know what is. Dovish, hawkish, what was his tone? How did he say it? It's not even about what they do anymore. We're down to the point where we analyze his tone. Well, it's all about central banks. If it's all about central banks, that's already saying the economy doesn't matter. And the economy doesn't matter now because it's so weak. That's my point of view. We should be at the bottom. I predicted again from the beginning, 2007 would be the top, late 2007, happen right on cue, go into recession in 2008 and go up and down like we did in the 30s,

you know, and don't come out of it until 2022, 23. I said that from the beginning, we're coming into the bottom of the fundamental cycles. And not only did the my other big key indicator, the only positive was the technology innovation cycle, that one peak in late 2019, and is down. So we got nothing fundamental driving this. And so I think that's why it's getting harder. That peak of that last cycle makes it even harder for the Feds to keep this going. So again, I think they just go to my slogan has been in the last year to go until it blows. Well, it's showing signs of blowing. Stocks are having a hard time going up here. Bond yield, I mean, what wrecks? I mean, look at 87 and 2000,

all these rallies get wrecked when the bond yields start going up against stocks. Now the stocks tolerated it first because everything else and we're bubbling and the economy is still going, but it goes up to the point like in 2000, like in 1987, when it breaks the stock market. And I'm showing we're very close

now to that. I think now or within by the end of the year, just the continual rising 10-year treasury yields, the risk-free yield has gone up from what, 1.17 up to 1.65 the other day, and probably will hit 2% soon. I think by 2%, stock market blows just on that. Okay, so let's assume that you're correct, that we're about to see a Great Depression, the likes that we've never seen before. I actually always comment on the long-term Dow Jones chart. I say, zoom out all the way, the Great Depression was the greatest buying opportunity of all time, which you sort of alluded to before. If you have cash on the side, this will be a great buying opportunity if you have a long timeframe and are willing to

suffer through that depression. In your opinion, what's the best way for your average investor to deal with this upcoming crash? Is it to move to cash? Is it to actually, which we never really think about, to buy those bonds, the longer- longer term bonds and see them rise during this dip. For me, a big part of it is Bitcoin. I think you may disagree, but we can discuss that. What's the best way that someone should approach this? Okay, the best thing, and then it's proven by history, in a deflationary crisis more than an inflationary,

we had a lot of inflation peaks and then downturns. But even then, the economy slows and inflation backs up. When inflation goes down, bonds, well, low risk bonds, treasury bonds, US treasuries, 10 and 30 year, and the 20 year corporates are the only things that go up in a deflationary crisis. Because the point of deflation is to stop the debt and the financial asset bubbles that come from it. This is mainly, what is all this money printing? They didn't send us checks in the mail until recently, okay? This whole time, they've been buying financial assets, pushing up stocks and bonds and corporate bonds, all the financial assets.

And that means real estate goes up with them. And so that's what crashes and money just disappears. So even a corporate bond, a normal, you know, BAA corporate bond, you have to have AAA corporates and better the 10 and 30 year treasury bonds. Those are the safe haven cash will preserve your money. The difference is, and this happened already in 2008, and it happened in the early 30s, I've tested in a deflationary crash, the 10-year Treasury bonds will appreciate 30%, 40%, 50%. So imagine stocks go down, my prediction, 70% to 90%, and you're sitting in something that's already done pretty well and is safe long-term. The best

Treasury, the best highest quality bonds in the world, who cares about the 1% or 2% they're paying you? They go up in value. Cash will not do that. So that's the best place to be. And you can go treasuries and maybe some other strong countries and AAA corporates. I myself, it's kind of like between cash and treasuries. I would just be sitting in the longest dated 30-year treasury bond during this crash. And then I would put now. The thing is, I see I'm on crypto. I am a Super Bowl and a Super Bear at the same time.

OK, I do see and I've spoken a lot of crypto conference in the last few years. And down here, guess where all the crypto guys are coming? Here in Puerto Rico. Absolutely. Obvious reasons. Crypto is the next big thing. A lot of people say, oh, it's nothing. It's worthless. Jamie Dimon. Of course, a banker would say that, whether he's smart or not. He seems like a smart man, but he would have to fight it anyway.

It is the next big thing. It's like the internet stocks that only came at the last part of the first tech bubble in late 98, 99, came up the strongest. The biggest part of that NASDAQ run was the dot coms, not the standard tech companies. Well, the crypto is not in the NASDAQ this time. OK, so it's not leveraging much. The crypto is the biggest bubble here, but it's still it's a baby. I call it it's baby bubble. When a new technology first proves itself and gets adopted, and it has been adopted now, there's no question about it. This is no fleeting thing. It's increasing in adoption and value. It bubbles up just like the dot-com thought, and it crashes. Now, listen to this number. This is why I'm 96. Let's say stocks go down 80, 85. Crypto can go down 90, 95 because it's the strongest bubble. But it's the first thing I would buy. In fact, I'm talking to my guy,

I've got a fund in Australia. How do we buy? Because we can't buy crypto per se, but there are some stocks that are related. How can we buy the crypto and Bitcoin trend when this crash happens? Because it will see its best. The internet stocks, again, only had a fleeting run, late 98 to early 2000, crashed 95, 96%. Amazon crashed that much. The leading retailer in the world today crashed that much and then went from, I don't know, $6 to $3,000 in the next boom. So that's what I'm looking at. I'm very bullish. I think the crypto things in its early stages, it's a real trend. It's the digitization of all financial assets and money. How can it not be a big trend? Bigger than the internet because it's about money and things of financial

value. So I'm very bullish long-term and I am going to be the first person buying, but I think it's too late in this cycle. I do think if you do have Bitcoin, I would hold it till around the end of the year. It's had very clear late 2013, late 2017, and now late 2020, four-year cycle peaks on a lag to its halvings. And so it may have, I give it 60-40, 60%, one more new high, I've got 85,000, 115,000 peaking it. Now, if it does get there, and you don't sell, I'm going to write you a letter and say you're a dumbass. Okay. So if we do see that, and I think that I'd give that 60-40, that we do see a new high by year end, that would be the ultimate sell and rebuy. Selling crypto at the top and rebuying it at the bottom

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well, if you're going to be here in 50 years, you don't want to sit through a 90 percent crash. You don't. But if you did it with Amazon, you're one of the wealthiest people on the planet. Right. And it's funny. I had my friend Mark Yusko on and he said, listen, there's only four people who still hold stock from the Amazon IPO. It's Jeff, his wife and his parents, right? Because they had all these opportunities to get shaken out. Of course, there was a 95% drop. And I actually agree with you, not necessarily on what will happen with price, but the corollary with the dot-com bubble is perfect. And people like to point at that as a negative. And I like you say that's a positive because that's how we got Google and Facebook and Amazon and all of these companies, right. This is this is this is the epitome of innovation.

Hundreds of companies come out and a new next big thing trend. And most of them get shaken out in a in a series of crashes. So this is one of those crashes. And so I want to buy into the next crash. But it is the next big thing. There's no trend I can see bigger. Oh yeah, biotech. But biotech's already had a lot of pride. This is the leading edge of technology. And we don't even have to go back that far to see what you're talking about, right?

I mean, you go back to March of 2020. People love to say that, you know, crypto crashed because of the market, which it did to some degree, but it bottomed two weeks before the stock market did. And it outperforms everything when it comes down? I was going to say, they love to point to the fact that the stock market has doubled, but crypto went up 17x from that bottom. Exactly. That's the number one thing I want to buy. It's too late for me. I don't want to take a short-term flight. And if it does make a new high, I tell you that that would be a pretty easy, quick play there. But yeah, if I had Bitcoin, I would hold it and I would then look at it very seriously end of year, especially if it makes a dramatic new high. That's a gift from God, man.

Don't look at it. Yeah, certainly if you're trading it and you don't view it as your savings account, then I 100% agree with that. Yeah, but if Amazon went from 130 to down to six, do you really want to sit through that bigger crack? No, not if you can buy it again at six. Not if you can buy it again at six. It's hard to know that that's going to happen. If I had bought Bitcoin at six, I might hold it there, but I wouldn't buy it here at 55

and have it go up to 85 and then crash to six. I don't want that. Right. And I mean, so obviously the core argument here is that this would be a deflationary crisis. And of course, inflation hedges generally perform poorly in a deflationary environment. What if we do see some sort of hyperinflation? Is there any environment where you see that as a possibility? Well, OK, here's my analogy. Okay, we've already seen the greatest money printing in history. You know, gold went up earlier on, you know, in the 2008 crisis,

longer than normal, and then finally crashed down. But gold saw this money printing coming and it happened even more. So that's the whole thing. You have to wash this money printing out. But with this much money printing, which nobody, I would have never thought they'd have gone this far. Nobody would have predicted that. Not the most, you know, we still have inflation at 5% instead of 2%. That's not a

base for hyperinflation. You, I'd be doing 50%. And as soon as the economy weakens, inflation will go down quickly. So now, you know, inflation's even holding here. The report came out this, you know, this morning. Oh, it's at 5.3, right? It was 5.4, supposed to be 5.3. It's not accelerating right now. It's higher than it's been in a long time, which it should be. Why? All the money printing. Now, I have fundamental labor force growth is the best correlator with inflation. And you can even project that natural trends out in the future. So again, we're in a deflation, a low inflation, deflationary environment. Gold's doing well because of the money printing and this bubble. But once that bubble burst, and again,

2008 was an example, gold treaded up in the first six months of the stock market crash. And then when it got serious, gold went down 33%, I think in a matter of weeks. So gold is not, it's an inflation hedge. It is a crisis hedge, which is why it holds up better than other commodities. But when it turns to deflation, gold does go down. And again, if somebody says, well, you have to have commodities in your portfolio, then, OK, I'll take gold over copper, OK, any day. Because it does have that kind of financial safety thing. But gold has already been proven in 2008 not to hold up. So gold's another thing I'd buy in the downturn, not because I see an inflation invite. The next boom will have low inflation by my demographic analysis, same tools that predicted this one. But I mean, who are the

two countries where everyday people love gold? India. China and India. Yeah. And India is going to dominate the next boom. And China is going to come back. I think just the gold buying of 3 billion people will drive gold up. I think gold would be one of the best metals in the next boom. So I would not buy gold here as a hedge. I would certainly be out of stocks. I'd be in those high quality treasury and AAA corporates, but I would turn

around and buy things like crypto and then high growth stocks and gold. Gold would be my number one selection for the metals, gold, maybe platinum, silver. I've never heard that demographic analysis and it makes so much sense. Well, yeah, labor force growth is the greatest correlation with inflation. Here's why. What you do when you have labor force growing, especially up until recently, it's mostly because you knew young people come in the workforce. What do the young people know? Nothing. They think they know everything. They know nothing. So they're inflationary. They're costly to people that you got to build offices for these people, train them, you know, and slap them around when they think they know everything and they don't let them make mistakes. But once they on a two and a half year lag, I've got it down to this over time, two and a half years later, those young people, boom, they're the new productivity surge because there are more creative and they're earning more money and they're learning faster. So young people entering the workforce is initially

inflationary. But of course, since they won't peak in their spending, they'll enter at age 20, peak in spending 46, 47. They are the best thing that can happen in the economy. So and actually, if you wanted to see the greatest bubble in stocks and real estate coming in history, all you would have to do is look for the first bubble in gold and commodities. That bubble came first because they benefited from the inflation, which is the cost of launching a great trend. So inflation is a leading indicator. And the greatest boom in history, it was no accident that it was preceded by the greatest

sustained inflation surge. You won't find one without going back to the 1500s, okay? You want to go, I'll get you to look there, you won't find good statistics, but that's how far you got. So that was no accident. Inflation is a great leading indicator, but it hurts the cost of businesses first and devalues other financial assets in the early stages. So you just have to follow inflation on a lag. So was 2008, that time, the Great Recession, was that the opportunity to fix this that was not taken? I mean, what would the world look like right now if they had allowed the natural course to happen in 2008, if they had allowed the banks to fail,

if they allowed zombie companies to fail? It would have obviously been horrible for me, everyday, everyday person, it would have lost their jobs, it would have had a depression. But would we be better off in 2021? If that had happened in 2008, than we are now? Yes, we would be better off now, we would have been much worse off, you'd have seen something like, I don't think you'd have seen 25, the economy was much more raw back then, you know, I think you'd have seen bordering 20% unemployment instead of 25, a bigger stock crash that would have lasted instead of 1.7 years. The 29 to 32 was 2.8 years. It would have been more like that. You would have a longer crash, much deeper recession, but we'd have come out without endless stimulus, had a rebound,

partly with the millennials starting to drift into the economy. And then we would be coming back into a final downturn here in the 2020 to 22, 23. It would have been a replica of late 29 to mid 42. That was the big crash. And then the reflation of stocks and the economy rebounding with stimulus into 37, and then a final crash into 42 before we went into the last long-term boom in generation cycle. So it would have looked like that. We would have seen bigger crash, a rebound that would have been pretty darn strong without endless stimulus. It would have started with stimulus, but it would have not taken endless stimulus. And then we would be back down in demographic weakness, the worst of it here, and we'd be going down again. So that's what it

would more look like to me. We would be in a downtrend from 2020 to 22 after a more healthy stock boom that would not have seen new highs, but would have been more healthy. It would have been like, again, look at the 1930 to 42 scenario. That's kind of what would have happened. Right, we would have had 12 years and everyone knows rationally that the further you kick the can down the road, the bigger the problem is gonna be

when it actually happens. So my question then is, if we have this 12, 15, 18 year depression, which you would assume would happen this time, in the past, people were able to come back to jobs, but now we have technology that's already in acts deflationary by eliminating a lot of those jobs. That technology is still going to prosper and exist during that time. What happens at the end of a depression

when there's no jobs to go back to? Okay, two things on that. I am not predicting we go into a decade. I'm predicting we should have had the big crash in 2008 to 10. We didn't. We put that off. So we had the deepest recession we've had in a long, long time. But we came out. And now we'll have the biggest crash at the end, but it's not going to last. I would put it back about a year. I think this will last well into 2023. By 2024, we'll be coming out of this naturally. And of course, there'll be stimulus and stuff and coming into the next boom. So that's the way I see it. Naturally, we would go down here, but we wouldn't have had as big a crash because we would have,

like you said, we would have taken out a lot of that debt and zombie companies early on. Of course, more are going to build back up. I mean, they would stimulate to get us out of that. You can't let it gone two, three years instead of one to two. But we would have ended up in a temporary boom because the demographics would not have supported it and we would end up back down. It would just would have happened differently. So we get the big crash at the end and the smaller crash and recession at the beginning rather than opposite in 29 to 42. But I say it's over. It was over by 42.

It wasn't just World War II that pulled us out of that. It was the demographic cycle coming back. By 2024, the demographic cycle and fundamentals will be back. And by the way, the second point is the technology cycle out of my four indicators is the only one that stayed buoyant into recently and should have been turning down in the last few years. Okay.

So that cycle will take longer to come back, but that's one of the reasons that we should be down here. So that's the last pillar to fall. So again, I think that's what kills the Fed, that now you don't just have demographic weakness. Now the very technology cycle that would make all these great changes in productivity, which do eliminate jobs, but create better ones. I mean, if technology didn't create better jobs, we'd be poor every time a technology cycle comes. They do. Technology is the best thing. New generations entering the workforce and technologies even more so.

In my hierarchy of cycles, the 45-year technology cycle is number one, the 39- to 40-year generation cycle is number two. Then geopolitics and then the decennial boom-bust cycle. That's the hierarchy. So technologies are what's fizzling the most right now, just when demographics are getting ready to turn around a few years from now. Talking about that demographic cycle, I'm not familiar with your specific concept, but is that basically the idea that the baby boomers peaked on their spending at a certain point and now we'll see millennials maturing so that they will eventually start spending,

which they've not been able to do before? Yeah, yeah, exactly. It's the simplest indicator. I got this in 1988 after working with a lot of small businesses and seeing they were booming in the early 80s recession when big corporations were down, you know, all this stuff. I was seeing the new economy emerging instead of watching the old economy, which I was at in Bain & Company Harvard Business School, faded. So I saw that dynamic. And so that's what happens here. And that's why you have to bet on the new rising forces and not just the old leaders. And that's why I'm so bullish on things like crypto. Again, crypto just doesn't sound right.

The best definition, the digitization of all financial assets and money, that is a big trend that has far-reaching productivity. So one of the problems is, I mean, that's already enforced now, okay, that technology is moving. I'm sorry, it's already peaked in this replacing jobs. it will come back and do that more in the future. So the technology factor coming out of this is not going to be as adverse, and the demographic is going to be more important coming out of this. Right now today, the technology cycle finally failing is I think what basically knocks the Fed out. That's the punch they can't counter. So the quick summary is we don't get a longer depression. We just get a much more aggressive,

harsh and fast drop. And that crypto rises the hardest out of those ashes. Yes. Yeah. And I would say the depression would last at least a year longer because of this, but not much more than that. So, yeah, because once things fall apart, they fall apart. Once the Fed loses control, it won't take long to have a lot of debts go bad and a lot of companies fail. Zombie companies now up to 22% will fail at the speed of light. And the next natural question is, do we just start the cycle again, allow the Fed to replay this exact pattern in the future? And does your average person just proceed oblivious to all of this as they generally have in the past? Okay, here is my hope and some

faith in human nature after knowing that you do always do the wrong things at the wrong time financially throughout history. That this printing and printing and printing, and then despite exponentially more printing, the economy collapses harder than anybody's seen in their lifetime. That's going to say, don't listen to the Fed next time, you idiots. They did the wrong thing. It's going to be obvious. But people like me, and I'm not the only one, OK? Even the Goldberg, Peter Schiff, all types of people are saying, you cannot live on printed money. There's consequences. Peter sees more of the runaway inflation scenario. I see the deflation setting and just wiping out all this excess in a short

period of time, clearing the decks so we can boom again. But believe me, people are not going to say, oh, what we need, oh, yeah, there'll be some stimulus. What we need is another giant stimulus program after the last one failed, despite going up more, $4.6 trillion in one and a half years versus $3.5 in nine years. I think they're going to get the point, oh, you really don't get something. Everybody's back on the line. How can you live off a printing line? But it has worked long enough that people say, well, maybe this crash will say, no, it didn't work.

It never could work. Don't ever think about this ever again. Have we had another depression since the 1930s? No, people never forgot that for decades. Well, we've forgotten it now. We're two generations past that. So nobody today alive, except the few people that have almost no brain left, saw that Great Depression. We've never seen something that deep and hard. Bubbles burst.

And when they burst, and the bigger you let them get, we've let this one get more global, more financial. It's everything. This is the everything bubble. Housing didn't even bubble that much in the 29 peak, okay? It was more stocks and bonds and stuff. So I think people will get the lesson really quick because they already suspect this in the back of their mind. What do you mean governments just plant money and the economy keeps growing? The next question would be, well, why are we working? Right. I mean, your everyday person sort of benefited from it, or at least felt like they did for the last 10 to 12 years until COVID. But at COVID, the money printing just continued going up, stocks started going up, but your everyday person was actually suffering. And that

was the first time that had been the case, I think, in this generation. Well, and still though, the lion's share is when financial assets are the major thing going up and keep the economy going, the top 20% own 88% of financial assets and the top 1%, 45%. So that's who's been getting. So that's another thing. People are going to see the rich and the people who speculated the most fall the most. It's going to be what I call a sobering reality. People are going to get sober quick and realize, oh, drinking more and more and more and more doesn't work, even though it makes you feel good while you're doing it. That's

what we've been doing. We've been printing more and more. It keeps making us feel pretty good, and things go along. Okay. And when it finally crashes, people say, oh, my God, I can't believe we believed this could work. Why did we listen to these Fed? The Federal Reserve will have zero credibility after that. Zero. I think. Yeah, I think we all know that there's diminishing returns for every additional drink once you're already drunk. And if it doesn't happen, then I'm going to pay for Puerto Rico forever. I'm not going to move back to the States if we're that stupid. Who could blame you? Well, I find it very interesting the fact that whether you approach it from the inflationary scenario or the deflationary scenario or almost any rational scenario, almost everybody realizes that the reckoning is coming.

I mean, it's real quickly, you know, you know, the being in this in cash is the one that works either way. Gold does well in the inflationary scenario, but bonds don't. Those are the two differences between me and Peter Schiff. But man, if you just get safer and safer and in your 401k plan, you choose the safest options, the least volatile, the short-term interest funds or something like that, then this crash will work to your advantage either way. For an investor, but that's tough for the everyday person who's living check to check. It's basically possible because it's hard to say, hey, just be in cash when the price of goods is rising and you can't save. So I think the little guy is going to be pretty much screwed either way,

unfortunately. Well, but the little guy gets hit way more by the loss of jobs. It's the upper 10% that lose their ass in assets. They're the ones that have the assets. They get hit harder relatively. I'd rather lose my job for a year than lose 80% of my net worth. Of course, absolutely. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to do this. Where can everybody follow you after this and keep up with your thoughts? Harrydent.com. We have a free newsletter to introduce people to our other services. You can stay on that as long as you want. I would advise not too long in this environment. But harrydent.com, you get on our free newsletter. It's that simple. Perfect. Well, I'm going to be the first person calling you if this all goes down to make sure

you're actually buying Bitcoin at the bottom and you're true to your word. Yeah. I tell you, I think crypto will be the most interesting of all the things we talked about, because there is an argument that that new thing that could, I mean, people do see it as the digital gold. And if it is literally digital gold, then it would do better than I think. I still say I'm just watching the performance and it's the biggest bubble. So I say it's going to crash the biggest. But boy, if it does, that rise at the back and it's the biggest bubble. So I say it's going to crash the biggest. But boy, if it does that, that rise at the, at the back end is going to be spectacular.

It's going to be off the charts. Thank you so much, Harry. I appreciate it.