The Wolf Of All Streets - BUY THE DIP: Macro Economist Explains What What To Do With Bitcoin Right Now

Starting point is 00:00:00 CPI, PPI, FOMC, we have all kinds of letters that are extremely meaningful for what happens in markets and for the economy, but they're hard to unpack and certainly even more hard to discern what they mean for Bitcoin and our beloved crypto market. Good thing we have our favorite macro economist, I was going to say economist, that's where my brain is at today. Our favorite macro economist, Noelle Atchison, here to unpack all of that. Of course, chart guys on the back path to talk about what's happening in the market and look at the charts. It's going to be a great stream, guys. Let's go.

Starting point is 00:00:50 What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. If you're wondering why I'm saying words like economist instead of economist, it's because we got super stuck in Miami and yet another historic flood. It's my second historic flood of the year while traveling. This time with my kids, we got to the airport, we checked all our bags, then they canceled our flight, of course. So we had to do the whole escape, rent a car, drive through a hurricane, get home at two o'clock in the morning with a nine and five-year-old thing. So my brain is not at full capacity but the good news is i have two amazing guests whose brains are always

Starting point is 00:01:29 at full capacity that's noelle obviously and dan noelle good uh morning or afternoon for you how are you good afternoon scott really well thanks great to see you and i'm so sorry to hear about your travel odyssey that just takes the fun out of it doesn't it especially with we had a great trip but the tail end the tail end was brutal the last two days was crazy flooding we should have known but what's what's really crazy is they tried to reschedule our wednesday flight for saturday as if we were just gonna hang out for three days uh for the next flight and then we went back down to retrieve bags before we just gave up and the line was six hours to file for your bags.

Starting point is 00:02:05 I mean, it was just carnage. Every flight in Miami airport was basically canceled. So I can't blame them. It's pretty crazy. But nobody wants to hear about that. What they want to hear about is the markets. Obviously, look at crypto. Bitcoin's flat.

Starting point is 00:02:18 It went down. It went up when inflation came out. Then it went down when we had FOMC because it was slightly hawkish. And Jerome Powell turned his head the wrong way when he coughed. And then he sneezed in an inopportune moment. And it was very strange. We have a lot going on here, though, right?

Starting point is 00:02:34 And seemingly Bitcoin is still trading sideways. So PPI, CPI, FOMC all in the last two days. Can you help us unpack this? Well, what we're seeing is confirmation that Bitcoin is not just a macro asset. This is something that you and I have often talked about before, Scott. Yes, it's a macro asset, but it's not just a macro asset. There's always a lot of other stuff going on as well. Strangely, now, if it were just a macro asset, it would be doing better than it is doing.

Starting point is 00:03:00 There is some sell pressure in the Bitcoin market that is not relevant for the macro situation. It finds itself in for that is not relevant for the macro situation. It finds itself in for the liquidity expectations and for the overall landscape. There's some crypto specific things that are keeping Bitcoin down. So I'm assuming that the markets are generally confused as to whether we have good news or bad news on inflation here, right? Because we had CPI came in favorable, right? It was down. That gave some confidence that we would see rate hikes. But then Powell kind of did his normal data-driven. We don't have much. We're not near our 2% target yet. We're not ready. Maybe one

Starting point is 00:03:38 hike, maybe two hikes. It's the same story every single time. But then we did have PPI today, which came in, people are viewing, I would imagine, favorable. Breaking May PPI inflation, unchanged at 2.2%, below expectations at 2.5. Funny, it's unchanged, but we beat expectations and expectations, I think, are all that matter to the market. And so that would be bullish. So we basically went bullish yesterday morning, bearish yesterday afternoon, bullish this morning. Fun. Yeah. Beating expectations is key because that's what's priced into the market, right? And in the end, it's always what's not priced in.

Starting point is 00:04:11 That's what moves the prices. But it does matter what the previous was because trend influences expectations, which then influences future movements. So we can't totally ignore the direction. The direction is cooling, for sure, but we can't overlook that this is just one read so far. And what Powell was saying yesterday in the press conference was, it's not enough for us. The dot plot came out after the CPI release, and the members of the FOMC were allowed to change their forecast. And yet, the collective decision, the consensus, was for higher rates at the end of 2024 than previously expected. In other words, the Fed officials, and these are arguably some of the most qualified economists in the world, they are saying that they're not buying it yet.

Starting point is 00:04:52 They're waiting. And this is complete contrast to what they were saying a year and a half ago, where inflation was transitory. It's not really a big deal. They're telling us now that what we're seeing in the figures is not necessarily really what's happening yet. It was a fascinating just just a position to see two point eight percent core PCE forecast for the end of the year. That's where it is now, Scott. In other words, inflation is in a good place. We're heading in the right direction, but we don't expect it to come down further.

Starting point is 00:05:21 That doesn't make a lot of sense. I've heard a lot of people saying of late that they should just raise the acceptable level of inflation to three or three and a half percent and call it a day. We can do the George Bush on the aircraft carrier mission accomplished. We can say we're done and move on with our lives. And that's sort of what they're doing, but they can't officially do that because that would impact credibility and that's weak as it is. Yesterday, Powell said 2.6, 2.7% referring to core PC. That's a good place to be, he said. Wait, wait, but it's supposed to come down to 2. 2.6% is nowhere near 2. It's a big difference there. And yet that's a good place to be. It sounds like what he's starting to do is prepare us for a gradual acceptance that 2% is just not going to happen. Wow. That would be a big change if that actually happens. And like we said, I mean,

Starting point is 00:06:10 they're signaling one cut this year, keeping the door open for two. But once again, we've been saying that for a year and a half, it feels like, right? I mean, if you look back, I say this all the time, but if you go back to March of last year, we were supposed to get three to four cuts. 85 percent chance, according to predictive markets in 2023. It's 2024. And now we're curious if we're even going to get one. Maybe it'll happen in 2025. I mean, personally, I don't see why the Fed would do anything right now. And I especially enjoy looking at the dot plot going out one year. In other words, here we're looking at the dot plot for the end of 25 and looking at the range of predictions and again these are

Starting point is 00:06:49 qualified economists there's no denying whether they're right or not it's a different question but they're qualified and the dispersion we have one at least one fmc member predicting there will be zero rate cuts between now and the end of 2025 zero rate cuts we have another one who's expecting 10 the hardest actually is 10 and that's absolutely crazy to have that kind of a divergence again they see the same information that we do speaking of seeing information let's not forget that the fed keeps reiterating that it is now data dependent. And yet yesterday in the press conference, Powell was talking about the divergence in the employment reporting, where you have the establishment survey reporting a huge gain in jobs and the household survey reporting a huge slump in jobs. And he basically said, yeah, there's no reconciling the two. And

Starting point is 00:07:39 then he mumbled a lot of stuff about how maybe one of them is overstated. And this is from a Fed that's data dependent, basically telling us that the data is confusing and we can't really trust it. It's confusing where they just don't want to listen to the bad parts. That's also true. Because Friday was a great example, right? I know it's been six days and we've discussed it, but you had these job numbers and the headline came in, 275,000 jobs created, amazing job market expectation

Starting point is 00:08:06 was 185 but then to your point when you dig into the data it was relatively awful i mean your long term jobs were gone that 275 number was kind of made up jay who's lavish uh broke it down for us but it's really an estimate we see them revised every single time so it's impossible for us to unpack this and by the way, looking at the dot plot, which I just happened to open in that article, you look at the end of 2026, we got one guy down here at 2.25 or gal, we got someone up here at 5%. I mean, we're all over the map to your point. And these are the people looking at the exact same data. Absolutely. And that doesn't even take into account the possible slash probable

Starting point is 00:08:45 change of leadership at the Fed before then. And that does set the tone. We all know that, you know, Powell is influential in the overall committee, and he has been one of the dovish members so far. So again, a lot of change between now and then. We can pretty much ignore the figures that far out. Interesting is just a year from now, a year and a half from now, it's pretty close and they don't know what's coming. So how are we expected to make it? I love reading this morning

Starting point is 00:09:10 a comment I saw on Twitter. I think it was from the head of bond trading at JP Morgan. Basically saying, no idea. And if he doesn't know. Yeah, I think it's impossible for anyone to know. And at this point,

Starting point is 00:09:22 it's not even possible, I think, to make an educated guess because it's so mixed. And markets have no idea what to do. Like I said, I mean, you can watch it, I guess, in Bitcoin over the last few days, these moves up and down. And it's just, I mean, as you said, I don't think it really matters, but the one, 2%, you get those moves based on the knee jerk and then you sort of mean revert. And we've just keep mean reverting. We get all this news when nothing's happening, we float down, it seems. And anytime we get news, then we get a bit of a move and end up right back where we started. To me, that means we're just kind of in that part of the cycle. But there is so much happening.

Starting point is 00:09:55 And I personally don't really understand why we pay so much attention to the Fed's intentions anyway. Granted, it's entertaining and I do enjoy the press conferences, but let's face it, the steepest hiking cycle this century has not done very much for market liquidity. It is still very loose. Liquidity is loose. Look at any of the measures that are out there at the moment, and you'll see that we are at liquidity measures that were equal to the measures before the Fed started hiking. That makes absolutely no sense. A lot of that is recursive. It's to do with the market doing so well. But let's say liquidity is not exactly tight. Powell may insist that conditions have tightened, but we haven't yet seen any evidence of that whatsoever. Maybe a slight softening in the job market, but not enough to claim victory,

Starting point is 00:10:38 for sure. Yeah. Yeah. I think Powell's gone regardless in November, right? I mean, is that the assumption? So you got to imagine that he has a bit of legacy in mind here. True, and get out while you can is probably friendly advice at this stage. But who knows what's going through his head? I mean, he probably wants to see the job done out of sheer professional pride. But things are probably going to get very complicated no matter who wins. And it comes back to the question, does this really matter? We can't make a very strong case for monetary policy

Starting point is 00:11:08 being pretty irrelevant now. What is driving wage growth? What is driving inflation? What is driving output is fiscal policy. And that's not going to ease up anytime soon. Yeah, I just happened to open the grit newsletter talking here about the Fed double header, just to give an idea of just how confusing this is. Yesterday, CPI numbers showed a CPI of 3.3, which beat estimates, but essential categories are experiencing significantly higher increases. Car insurance is up 20.3%. Transportation costs have risen by 10.5%. Hospital services have increased by 7.2%. Inflation has remained above 3% for 38 consecutive months. And you can extract any sub measure you want to make your point. The underlying point is, we don't really know,

Starting point is 00:11:53 there's a lot moving 20.3% for car insurance is actually less than it was the previous month, which is kind of mind blowing. I don't have a car, thank God. But that is kind of mind blowing. Yeah, okay. So where do you then view Bitcoin sort of in the context of this? I mean, I take a look at a chart. It's just sideways. I mean, I've been saying this this whole time. I tweeted right around this point in March and said, listen, we're overbought on everything. Meme coins are going nuts.

Starting point is 00:12:16 It's time for that many, many, many month consolidation, regardless of what's happening in macro. We're three months into that so far. I still think we can have another three, you know, easily. But what do you think at this point? It is behaving like Bitcoin generally behaves after the halving.

Starting point is 00:12:35 I mean, this really shouldn't be a surprise. We've been through this before. The overall impact of the halving is positive. But after the halving, there is some churn. We see miners exit because they can no longer make money. We are seeing that in the hash rate. In fact, the hash rate has been coming down over the past few weeks, which suggests that miners are switching off machines and those miners could well just be selling their Bitcoin into the market. Plus,

Starting point is 00:12:57 we know it's hard for miners after the halving, especially since the price has yet to rally. And we could be seeing miners, even the optimistic ones that want to stick around and wait for things to get better. We could be seeing them sell Bitcoin just to cover operating costs. But this happens every four years. It is part of the cycle. So it's nothing to worry about, in my opinion. We have strong ETF inflows. And OK, maybe a lot of that is rotation from others who want cheaper custody, for instance, or a more convenient way to hold their exposure. We're seeing strong Bitcoin ETF inflows. We're seeing a lot of other tailwinds start to gather force.

Starting point is 00:13:34 And the outlook for Bitcoin is still as positive as it was a few months ago. We saw confirmation yesterday, Scott, that the U.S. deficit continues to increase. And we've talked often before about how that's going to be financed. And that's unlikely to be wound back anytime soon also. So there's a lot of positive forces. A lot of tailwinds for Bitcoin at the moment. The current churn that we're seeing, I think, it feels like it is largely minor generated, perhaps some long-term holders selling as well just to lock in the profits.

Starting point is 00:14:04 But the overall outlook is still the same liquidity. Bitcoin is a liquidity sensitive asset, and we will be seeing the market react to the likelihood of cooling inflation, bringing rate cut expectations forward. Until then, there's just so much uncertainty in the market, selling pressure that could end at any time that could be new buying pressure come in. It's a wait and see game, like you suggested. Yeah. So what does that mean to you for the broader crypto market at the moment? I mean, it seems like not that much is happening. All coins have somewhat just steadily bled for the last few months, unless you're, I think, in the meme and Bitcoin barbell, you're probably underperforming. I think people forget that it's very, very, very,

Starting point is 00:14:50 very difficult to outperform Bitcoin over the long term. It requires impeccable timing to trade around that and end up with more Bitcoin than you closed with. Yeah. Generally, if you want to outperform Bitcoin, you do need to time it very well. And it's easy to outperform Bitcoin if you get that right. But that generally manifests towards the end of the cycle. And the fact that we're seeing meme coins somewhat lackluster at the moment, we're seeing risk off be the flavor of a week in terms of crypto investment. That's a very good sign that suggests that we are indeed still early. As long as it is Bitcoin's market, we're still early in the cycle. It's going to be ETH's market at some stage as well, especially as the ETF approvals get closer. But for now,

Starting point is 00:15:34 yeah, it does seem to be Bitcoin's market. And that means there's a long way to run yet. Yeah, that's the optimistic view that I agree with as well. I promised myself yesterday when we ended up talking politics half the time that I wouldn't talk politics anymore on my show because the comments went nuts. But I have to mention this. Biden campaigned in talks to accept crypto donations through Coinbase commerce from sources. Now, Nick Carter had a aggressive take, but seemingly accurate. Under Biden, the admin bullied the banks.

Starting point is 00:16:03 Here we go. Engaged in lawfare against exchanges and tokens, harassed miners, forced projects abroad, refused to clarify security lies, blackballed the ETFs, made DeFi virtually illegal, made DAOs legally risky, made blah. You get it. We've all been here for all of this. And although the SEC is a nonpolitical agency, give me a break.

Starting point is 00:16:22 We all know that the SEC is appointed by each president and confirmed by their Senate and they do what the White House is bidding. They're going after Coinbase and now he wants to accept crypto donations through Coinbase Commerce, which, by the way, means he would be accepting unregistered securities as donations. What? I mean, come on. And which custodian is he going to use not a bank right oh i can't use a bank because he vetoed that exactly it's um i shake my head because it's just depressing the hypocrisy here it is really just depressing okay good news but now the hypocrisy is more depressing it's a it's a reminder that politics is now run by largely unelected representatives. The SEC, for instance, Gensler's influence on finance, more broadly speaking, even beyond crypto,

Starting point is 00:17:16 an elected representative deciding on how business operates well beyond his jurisdiction. We have lawyers now pretty much deciding what candidates should be doing and who gets prosecuted when and not. It is very much politics run by the unelected, which is disappointing when you're coming to such an iconic democracy as the United States, especially in the United States

Starting point is 00:17:37 wants to continue to wield its soft power throughout the world to encourage governments to behave more like it and to be friendlier. I'm going to shake my head again just because it's depressing to see such hypocrisy. I'll take the silver lining view, which is that I still, even though we talked about it as a theoretical possibility, Bitcoin and crypto being this influential in the election cycle still blows my mind. Yes, and highlights a tailwind that there is actually only upside here.

Starting point is 00:18:13 Say Biden changes his mind and no, I'm not going to accept. Well, the market's not really going to care. If he actually does start endorsing crypto by accepting it, then there's only upside in this. Okay. So obviously we have this election cycle then. Let's talk about expectations for markets and all of these confusing metrics through the next few months. I somewhat expected we maybe allow us to get a dip here in the summer, see the top market, correct, 5, 10%. We sell in May and go away. And then ramping back up into obviously the election season when markets need to be high

Starting point is 00:18:52 for an incumbent to win regardless of party. We just know that sort of statistically, we're still making all time highs here. Yes, probably. And we have to look outside the United States because there's always going to be a lot going on there as well. Yes, the United States has the world's largest financial market, but it's not the only market, nor is it the largest market when it comes to crypto. We have Asia is definitely the largest market when it comes to crypto trading. And we have to keep an eye on what's going to be happening to one currency controls and two currency devaluations in that part of the world. We know that central banks around the world are increasing their gold holdings at rates that we haven't seen in something like 50 years. And it's not a big stretch to imagine that some of the smaller economies especially are probably also thinking about some diversification into other stores of value that perhaps are easier to move around on a digital ledger.

Starting point is 00:19:39 So there could be a lot of movement. I think we're going to see a lot of movement this summer, probably not necessarily from the United States, because as you pointed out, one, election blues and two, summer season with barbecues and all that. And here in Europe, well, everyone just goes on holiday for a lot of the summer. But outside where crypto prices do tend to trade with a lot of volatility and liquidity, we could be seeing some fireworks, especially if the macro situation gets crispy, the geopolitical situation, I should say, gets a little bit more, a little bit crisper. Yeah, I just, at this point, it's hard to imagine, you know, within five months of the election, seeing a major stock market correction, regardless of Bitcoin, we're pushing to that season where any major dip could dramatically affect the election results.

Starting point is 00:20:26 And it just seems like they have endless levers here to pull to make this happen. I'm not saying the Fed is or is not political. I think the Treasury is definitely political. So, yeah. And, you know, even the Fed being not political, I do believe it is neutral as to the outcome of the elections. Everyone, of course, has their personal opinions, and it's always very hard to divorce those from your professional opinions. But the Fed's concern about raising or cutting close to an election, that's political, right? So it's, yeah, who knows what's going to happen there. As for there not being a stock market correction on the horizon, I still think

Starting point is 00:21:05 we're going to see one because the NVIDIA valuations are just crazy. And the fact that so much of the market now depends on expectations of earnings of just a handful of companies is unstable. That is just unstable. And you can argue about the AI hype till you're blue in the face. Over the past few days, I've been at a TradFi conference where AI is obviously very much part of the conversations. It was about market infrastructure mainly. It's the hot new technology. And the general consensus is that, yeah, useful, but not quite the macro shift that everyone seems to be predicting. And these are people that run capital markets infrastructure. So if they're not seeing the potential impact of AI on how liquidity moves around the world, then we could be in for some disappointment as well as frustrations about the legal aspects of AI. In other words, there could be some disappointments on the stocks whose valuations have been buoyed by expectations, in my opinion, unrealistic of just how much of an impact AI is going to have on the bottom line productivity within the next five years. 20 years, probably older than we

Starting point is 00:22:09 expect. Short term, probably a lot less. Dave Weisberger on Monday said it reminded him of the Cisco hype in the dot-com bubble. Very much. And the entire market. Yeah, totally. And you start tracking the share price of NVIDIA and it's outpaced what Cisco did relative to the rest of the market. And now the shares are much more concentrated. The indices are much more concentrated than they were back in the dot-com bubble. To be fair, one thing that could make any crash less painful than that experience, which Dave and I remember, is that there aren't quite as many revenue-less companies in the stock market as there were back then. Back then, you had so many companies rushing to IPO.com in their name.

Starting point is 00:22:52 You don't have that now because there's so many other ways to raise money, private equity, debt, whatever. So that could be one thing. But then again, the concentration is much steeper now. AI is so interesting because obviously NVIDIA leads and then you have all of these entrepreneurs and companies either becoming AI adjacent or moving into AI, and then they need to buy more chips from NVIDIA. And it's sort of this self-fulfilling cycle, but it leads to, I think, really inflated valuations. And once we realize that it's like the dot-coms where you're looking at NetTaxi and Pet.com for most of these companies, that demand wanes.

Starting point is 00:23:27 Yeah. And there's the regulatory aspect. Back in the dot com era, the regulation wasn't really an issue because these are companies selling mattresses and calling themselves tech companies. Whereas here you do have something that's going to be impacting jobs. It's going to be impacting privacy. It's going to be impacting copyright. It's going to be impacting things that regulators really care about. And the prices are totally assuming that the regulators aren't going to step in and try to clamp down some of the expectations. Yeah. Is there anything else I may have missed here with the last couple of minutes? Anything that's on your mind that you're looking at? No, right now it's macro and it's politics and it just could not be more interesting yeah i guess interesting and not just and not just in the u.s and we've had pretty contentious elections here in europe recently of course it's a totally different debate just how much they matter i

Starting point is 00:24:15 think they do matter but it remains to be seen how much and in the u.s it's a very very important question who will win the next election and with with the recent convictions on both sides of the aisle, let's face it, that is very much an open question. And also, Scott, we do just have to step back for a moment and think, wait, how did we get here? This is the United States of America. That is looked up to around the world as just how democracy should be run. How did we get here? Bringing this back to crypto, Bitcoin is not just an inflation hedge or liquidity play or whatever. It is always and has always been a hedge against craziness. It is like gold, something to hang on to when things are just weird. And you just want to make sure that what you have is going to retain

Starting point is 00:25:02 its value against currency fluctuations and rapidly depreciating assets. Thank you so much. I think that's a great way to end. Guys, you all have to be following Noelle by now, I'm assuming, because she's been here so many times. If you're not, there it is, Noelle in Madrid. You can follow her on X and you should absolutely be subscribed to her newsletter, which is Crypto is Macro Now. It's amazing. We steal ideas from it.

Starting point is 00:25:28 I mean, borrow. I mean, utilize ideas from it all of the time. It leads to a lot of our ideas for shows because she's so on top of it and has such great, great takes and opinions. Thank you so much, Noelle. Always a joy to have you. Thank you, Scott. I hope you recover from your ordeal soon.

Starting point is 00:25:45 It's just sleep, you know, and bags. We'll get it all. My kids' stuffed animals are the biggest problem right now. Oh, yeah, that's right. You know how it is. That's about all we got. Thank you so much, Noelle. Bye-bye.

Starting point is 00:25:55 Thanks. Bye-bye, everyone. All right, guys, before I move on to Dan, obviously got to talk about our new sponsor. You've heard me talk about them before. It is, of course, Blender. Blender's introducing a new decentralized network that utilizes unused GPU resources all over the world

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Starting point is 00:26:30 just wrote an amazing piece on the intersection of crypto and AI and how large it's going to be. And a few of these companies have already figured out legitimate use cases that are happening right now. You've seen Render, you've seen Blender, we've seen FET, obviously quite a few in this space.

Starting point is 00:26:44 But I mean, this is the future, is gaining access to expensive compute that your normal person would not normally have access to through a decentralized marketplace so that you can basically a la carte the compute that you need for AI and for everything else that requires that sort of heavy lift on the compute side. Blender's already doing it. Really, really impressive. There's no affiliate link, nothing for you to sign up for. Just check them out. That's all I'm asking you to do. Check them out. And maybe if you are an artist of some sort, a videographer, a musician, my God, I used to spend so much time rendering files in my DJ days.

Starting point is 00:27:23 Then absolutely check them out. And now to talk about the exceptionally boring charts. Okay. Maybe they're not all boring, but the Bitcoin chart. Boring. Back to 68 though. Back to 68. Big deal. Yeah. I mean, it can, pretty much over the next week, we're going to determine, is it the boring summer that you and I have talked about before with the potential, you know, just tightening up into July and beyond. This is, you know, this is the psychology of a cup and handle with your resistance, your failure to break it. And it's trying to be a bull flag. So my simple statement is, if we can keep defense defending 66,000, which, you know, we just broke it with zero follow through.

Starting point is 00:28:04 If we can keep holding that, a cup and handle is on the table. If that becomes resistance, longer term tightening range. So that's essentially how I'm separating the fork in the road of where we are right now on this Bitcoin chart. Yeah. I still lean towards boring. We've had so much news and it just remains boring. And yeah, and that's the other thing is, you know, this would be the time for it to be breaking out right now just because, you know, Apple with a huge two-day move to all-time highs, NVDA up another three and a half percent today, all-time highs, Microsoft new all-time highs. So this would be the environment for it to be happening and it's not. So that definitely is a little bit of

Starting point is 00:28:43 a bearish correlation with the NASDAQ right now in the short term. And so that does lead to the possibility of a long, boring summer. But again, if that's the case, number one, if you're a trader, you're slowing down your trading. And I always talk about knowing when to pump the gas and pump the brakes. And you pump the brakes in the tightening ranges and you pump the gas when those tightening ranges break. So just ensure that you're not over trading in this environment right now. Yeah. People are just every single time that we consolidate, they get bored and they get chopped up. You just don't need to do anything. Just wait. So what else can you do besides argue with people on Twitter or bash the coin you don't like or all those other fun activities?

Starting point is 00:29:27 There's a lot of other activity, crypto adjacent, trading adjacent activities that you can participate in that the crypto community is very passionate about. But I can't highly encourage any of them. I prefer your go out and farm and touch grass approach to boring markets personally. Yeah. And that's what a lot of people do in the summer is volume drops off and also still seeing dominance remaining high. There was a point there a few weeks ago where I was like, is this it? Are we about to see altcoins start to gain some relative strength? And the answer was, nope, not yet. We're still holding on here with Bitcoin dominance leading the way. And the more this shapes up, the more it's looking like we need to see if we get a new all-time high in Bitcoin, one more push up here at least. And then maybe that ETH ETF will be

Starting point is 00:30:12 soon enough that then it starts to spread out a bit as far as dispersion of profits elsewhere. But at the moment, it's still the Bitcoin show. We just need new money and it's not going to come in in this environment. So you can't see every altcoin going crazy across the board unless there's new retail or some significant money here. And it's not that part of the cycle right now. There you go. You do have micro strategy. That's Bitcoin, though. Another 500 million coming down the pipeline. So, you know, it's always nice to get that headline to know he's about to be buying a bunch of Bitcoin again. So yeah, let's keep an eye on that.

Starting point is 00:30:49 The appetite for these low interest rate notes that he keeps releasing is astounding to me. People just want to be a part of it with him. I don't blame him. Yeah. The game now, because of social media, the game has heroes. And you got Roaring Kitty, the GameStop hero. And everybody rallies behind a hero for your community leader. And he is definitely that in the stock market.

Starting point is 00:31:13 He bridges the gap between the stock market world and the crypto world. So fun to watch. But MSTR itself is getting nice and tight here. Same thing, just the sideways consolidation, no red flags, but also very range bound. And I'm watching the market in euphoria as far as I'm concerned, the stock market. And for me, my mindset is if we stay in euphoria, you're just scouting laggards and which names have not been in breakout mode. And so you do have the crypto miners, CLSK has had a nice few days here, but it's still

Starting point is 00:31:46 range bound. So I'm looking at IWM, which is range bound on the weekly timeframe. Are we going to see rotation? Last time around, we talked about how essentially IWM is the altcoins of the stock market and watching to see if it gets that rotation. But, you know, keeping an eye on the crypto stocks and IWM and even Tesla, you know, Tesla has the first weekly uptrend of the year just confirmed on the back of the vote with Elon Musk getting the compensation he wants. And yeah, I like that. I like a three month long term Tesla chart where it's just so much volatility and it's just going to keep tightening up, in my opinion. And then next year, we're going to be looking for this pattern to break and that's going to have some significant follow through when it does. And I've said many times, find the

Starting point is 00:32:33 long-term tightening ranges and watch for them to break because if it's a long-term tightening range, the break likely has a good bit of follow through. That's why I'm totally fine with a very long five, six, seven month consolidation on Bitcoin that we see after the having every time, because we know that that's when hopefully the parabolic moves have happened historically and hopefully would happen in the future. Yeah, that is what we're hoping for. One more here. Just the FSLR. This was the solar name talked about a few weeks ago and just wanted to highlight how

Starting point is 00:33:03 perfect a bull flag that was. Again, just sideways consolidation. If you're zoomed in, it's boring and you're on the hourly. And just imagine this is the daily chart for Bitcoin or whatever. But once you get that sideways boring range and then it breaks for another leg up. So that's what we're hoping for there. One more pattern, HACK. This is an ETF, not a ton of liquidity in the short term for day trading,

Starting point is 00:33:26 but this monthly chart, that is just a perfect cup and handle trying to form here. So this is Amplify Cybersecurity ETF. I only saw it for the first time yesterday. Someone asked about it and I pulled this up and was like, I mean, if that follows through, that is going in a textbook for what to look for on a cup and handle pattern. So starting to watch this one as well. Yeah. Have you been watching? Well, I see you got one more up there before we go. Is that, was that it? That's it. I've been bouncing around. Have you been looking at minors by the way, because I had, we were talking about iron yesterday, obviously Iris, and it's up another like 15% since we were talking about it on the stream yesterday. Pretty wild. This was one

Starting point is 00:34:05 that I had Mike Alford on and he, I think, is an advisor sits on their board. But we were talking about this for months. I mean, this move is pretty, pretty crazy, especially, I mean, now I'm looking at the chart, like a break above this 970, really, you know, all that sort of inverse head and shoulders looking consolidation, but man, what a move. Yeah, that's a beautiful follow through. And again, it's just from a period of just a tightening weekly range. You just get tighter, tighter, tighter, tighter. It's like, I used to call it the rubber band effect in my early days, where it's just, you pull that rubber band as tight as it can go and then it snaps. And that's when you get that volatility. But you look at, every miner is looking at this chart and saying,

Starting point is 00:34:41 I hope that's what we do. Because you look at CLSK and it is the same thing. And now the question is, do we get that follow through? And that's why, once I get a little bit more confident that Bitcoin is setting a weekly higher low, definitely focusing on these miners and they're having a great few days here and still possibly to remain range bound on the larger ones. I mean, MARA, what you just showed me, IREN, is showing us that people are focusing on the lower cap names, the names that everybody's not watching. But yeah, MARA, Riot, they still have a lot of work to do. But again, it's just tightening ranges, trying to break bull. And in the last few days, they are definitely standing out.

Starting point is 00:35:22 And so that is worth paying attention to. At this point, I wouldn't be chasing an entry right now. I'd be watching for either an hourly higher low, or if you want to be real patient, next daily higher low to be looking for an entry. But definitely worth paying attention to because they have been underperforming the stock market as a whole. And again, I think if this euphoria in the market continues, it's going to be a scramble to find the laggards that have not been in beast mode. Apple, the last two-day move was insane. Apple just went 12% in two days. That is wild.

Starting point is 00:35:54 They're not supposed to do that. But now we see that. I mean, listen, I remember Meta when it dropped 30% overnight while the market was close. I mean, seeing companies that large move that hard gives me a little pause, but it's wild because it drives everything. I mean, I'm looking at this iron chart. I mean, it was $4.60 a month ago today. It's $14.54. Yeah, that is almost as straight up as you can go. Yeah. I mean, I'll take it because we were talking about it in the $3 to $5 range. So it could be worse. All right, man.

Starting point is 00:36:27 Well, that's awesome. Thank you for giving us that little extra added bonus there and looking at those miners for us. Guys, of course, follow Chart Guys on X and check out all of his YouTube streams. Always a great perspective. Hopefully at some point, you know, we'll wake up in September and we'll have something exciting to talk about on Bitcoin. But you always find something else, which is great. Yeah. I'm confident that'll be the case.

Starting point is 00:36:49 Awesome. Thank you, Dan. I'm going to let you go, man. Appreciate it. Have a good one, Scott. All right, guys, just want to remind you, cause I haven't talked about it as much, but I am posting over on the round table. It's roundtable.rtb.

Starting point is 00:37:02 It's in the comments down there. I can't engage with you guys in the comments on here this is obviously a a project that i'm involved in with jame techman a all herzog founder of um founder of bancor mario knoffel the all coin daily guys george literally it's just we we post over here where there's no bots and people are actually humans and you can comment and i actually make an effort to go in there and respond to you guys. It's right down in the description in Z description. It says like engage and comment or something like that. If you guys want to actually talk to me about what happened on a stream, I try to respond there. There's just no way I can do it in

Starting point is 00:37:38 the YouTube comments. Literally impossible and community is important. All right, guys, that is all I got for you today. We will be back tomorrow with Z Friday five. And of course this afternoon market Mavericks with my two favorite pairs, McGlone and Gareth. All right, guys. Later.

The Wolf Of All Streets - BUY THE DIP: Macro Economist Explains What What To Do With Bitcoin Right Now

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