The Wolf Of All Streets - CPI | Bank Earnings | Coinbase & Binance | Crypto Town Hall With CalebFranzen, Kobeissi Letter, EleanorTerrett, David Silver, Joe Carlasare, JW Verret, Buce Fenton, Michael Terpin

Episode Date: July 10, 2023

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Alright, let's do this. Uh, Ran can't speak. I mean, Scott is on a plane, so I don't think he can speak either. So we got better, better voice to see. Caleb, how are you, man? Doing well, bro. How are you? Good, good. Can you hear me okay? Perfect. Is my audio good? Coming inside.

Perfect, man. Alright, let me get the, uh, where's Michael? Did it work? Oh, Michael, you're there. Good to have you, Michael. David, good to have you as well. And then we've got, uh, JW Verri. Good to have you, Michael. David, good to have you as well. And then we've got JW Verri. What's up, man? What's going on, Mario? All right, guys. So today's going to be more of a macro show.

I've got Danish coming in as well. But, you know, there's a lot of volatility expected this week. I think Khabasi is joining us in a bit. We're going to discuss some of his tweets. But, Caleb, man, kick it off. How are the markets looking? What are you expecting this week? And give us a bit of an overview in this finance space you did earlier with Danish. Man, markets are looking really great for my opinion. They have been for quite some time. We've been seeing extremely solid developments and improvements in net new highs on a 20-day, 50-day, and 52-week basis. Stocks are in an uptrend. People are trying to fight

this. They're trying to say that only seven stocks are going up. Only seven stocks are bringing the market higher. That just simply is not the case when you actually look at the data, which doesn't take much time and effort at all. So that's just kind of my opinion on things generally speaking. But when we look at CPI in particular, median estimates are projecting 3.1% year over year for headline CPI for the June data. Excuse me. Sorry, my voice is cracking up here. I'm a little bit dehydrated. Now, Olga, I'll let you get a drink danish um i know we've had you've always had um uh robert wolf who's always been bullish and you guys kind of butted heads a lot and i want to dig into a bit further because again next week or sorry this week is is macro week we got cpi

inflation data coming out on wednesday ppi on thursday jobless claims on thursday and we've got consumer sentiment data on Friday. We've got the bank earnings and they'll begin today. And I'm going to go through the list in a bit. And then we've got eight Fed speakers that will be speaking this week. So it is macro week and obviously this is going to impact crypto. I'd love to get your thoughts Dhanish and what's the sentiment like? So, you know, it's no surprise that Caleb and I sort of disagree on this. I think Caleb is right on in terms of the general economic trend of disinflation. I don't think we can push back on that. The data clearly supports his hypothesis.

The thing that I think most people are disagreeing on is will this trend continue as expected? And I am not in that camp. I think that we might see it bounce. We might see it be sticky. And I think it's really hard to tell. Caleb is using some very good leading indicators that can help with that. But I will push back on one thing that he said

about whether this is a broad market impact or not. I just put something up in the nest. And again, I am definitely on one side of this argument. I was called a perma bear again this morning, which is great. But I believe this is a mirage. I do not believe it's a bull market. And Bank of America kind of put this all together. And they said only 23% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500 in May. And that number is the lowest since 1986. And again, when that happens, usually there is a reversion back to the mean. So I understand the overall point that there's two ways that can revert to the mean, to be clear. One is the rest of the stocks

follow the leader or the leader falls. Looking at the leader... I want to ask you a question though. There's one argument being made and we discussed this a few days ago, is that macro doesn't matter as much anymore. And I don't totally agree with this argument,

but what's driving equities is AI, and everyone's talking about AI and big tech. And then what's driving crypto, which I'll go to the rest of the speakers on this, is the ETF. And that's what matters rather than macro. But I strongly disagree. This week will prove that narrative. This week, I think, will prove it narrative. I'll walk through this. If the CPI comes in and it comes in too hot, all the AI stocks are going to get murdered.

It's just how it is. Because when you think about discounted cash flow and you think about how people look at interest rates and more interest rate hikes will potentially hurt growth. It is, you know, and especially if they affect liquidity in the markets. So I'm not convinced that inflation data will not affect AI stocks that much. The other side of the coin is if it comes in super low, then there will start being considerations around recessions, which will the recession and a deflationary spiral. So if you look at the chinese data that just came out they look like they are in trouble the ppi data so the world's largest producer had the fastest fall in producer prices 5.4 versus so i want to i want to i want to you know

exactly what you said now i'll go to michael Michael and Bruce to kind of link it to crypto and how they think this will impact crypto. But I've been speaking to a lot of Chinese investors and one of them said something pretty concerning to me. He said, all the billionaires in China are illiquid and China's a big trouble and they're pivoting away from China. And this is one of the larger funds in the region. I'm sure, Danish, you've had similar guests say similar things. My question to Michael and Bruce, looking at this week, what we're expecting, looking at the fears around China, equities doing well, how much of an impact do you think the data that we're going to see this week, the CPI, PPI, jobless claims, consumer sentiment, bank earnings, and then the speakers, the Fed speakers that will be speaking this week, how much of an impact do you think that will have? Well, hi. I think for the most part, we're now at the start of the next big cycle with the halving and what comes after. And so I think that, you know, the things that are still tied to the quote real economy, um, will affect it for short periods. So yeah, if all of a sudden we get more interest rate hikes, it's going to affect all, uh, risk God environments, but it's still not

going to change the fact that it's going to be a buying opportunity. If you still believe that, you know, we're headed towards a six figure Bitcoin in 2025. So I think that as far as China's concerned, it's just very interesting now to find that China, and particularly Hong Kong, which is part of China, has been really, really going from being, you know, get the hell away from digital assets to come out of digital assets, come down to China. We need the business.

So everyone was talking, Bruce, everyone was talking about blaming the Fed for the bear market we're seeing in crypto earlier and then blaming the Fed for the underperformance of all risk assets. But now seeing that headline is expected to fall to 3.2% year over year, which would make it for the lowest print since March 2021. Call CPI is expected to tick lower to 5.1% year over year. Do you think, based on this, that we've kind of seen the worst, and does that make you more bullish? You know, I don't pay too much attention to these clowns. The idea that these fancy people in important offices that are made out of marble

that was paid for with money they stole from workers' wages, that they can sit there with their lattes and lord over us and decide this is how much money there should be and this is what interest rates are, that's just an antiquated old goofy idea that I think Bitcoin is a good part of replacing. The idea that people in central is a good part of replacing. You know, the idea that people in central offices decide what money is, is just a fundamentally flawed and broken idea. So, I mean, I, you know, yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm an economic guy and I run an investment firm. I've been doing this for 30 years, but I don't, I don't really care that much. And there's a lot of people who think that's ignorant. Like, Oh no, please, you need to follow

this person and this person. I just don't care because they're all clowns and my i put my track record against the people who care any day of the week you know the jim jim kramer cares a lot like every day he's obsessing about you know what what what some pinheaded clowns are going to do in some meeting somewhere uh that's not what really matters i mean what one thing that matters a lot is that they print money uh with wild abandon from thin air and give it to their crony friends, you know, like Elizabeth Warren did during the TARP bailout, when you had a whole bunch of banks who made colossally stupid errors, and then to reward them, you had Elizabeth Warren give, you know, seven, eight hundred billion dollars of taxpayer money

to them by devaluating our currency and printing money from thin air. So to that degree, it affects. But I like to zoom out and think of this in terms of where the world is and what's going on. We're in this fourth turning. Everything is changing. None of this stuff is going to matter. I mean, we may not even have a central bank as we know it. It'll probably exist in some form, but none of this stuff is going to matter. Bruce, moving away from Bruce, the next question is looking at the earnings we're expecting this week. And by the way, John, Carlos, David, good to have you guys because we will talk about Binance and Coinbase in a bit as well. Because that's the other part of the news is part of it is going to be macro. Second part will be Binance and Coinbase, a few updates there. But going back to you, Bruce, earnings expected.

So we got one, two, three, four Monday. So four today, one tomorrow, three Wednesday. I'm talking about the earnings releases that are from the banking sector. We've got on Thursday, we've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. And then the big day is obviously Friday with JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock.

Question to you, Bruce, and I'll go to Caleb as well for more macro touch. What do you expect to see? Is the whole narrative about things breaking in the banking sector, is that dead? Did the Fed succeed in increasing interest rates without allowing the system to break? Or is that still a concern that you have? Yeah, I mean, I think the system is still breaking. I mean, there's still a lot of zombie banks. There's a lot of broken, phony debt.

There's a lot of this idea that you can print money, you know, to get yourself out of a hole. You know, so I think there's still some fundamental problems. You know, these companies are very, very smart. You don't want to underestimate them, even if even if things are horrible. You know, these are some of the smartest people in the world running these companies. They figure out a way to, you know, pivot and shore things up. But, yeah, I mean, there's fundamental problems and it's all driven by the fundamentally big, big, big problem, which is broken fiat money. The idea that politicians can print money from thin air is a fundamentally broken thing.

And it trickles down into everything. Everything from seed oils to corn syrup to banks to BlackRock to ESG to every other form of stupidity that you see is pushed down from this creation of fiat. Before going to BlockProft and everyone else to start talking about Binance and Coinbase, Caleb, I want to go to you. You're bullish, I'm bullish,

Danish isn't. What would change your sentiment? What can change that if you see next week? What are the indicators you're looking for, Caleb? Because then obviously for the audience,

because I know this is a crypto show, anything that's bad for equities is likely bad for crypto, but the correlation isn't what it was before at least. Yeah. So stickier inflation would certainly be part of that. I want to kind of contextualize this though, right? A couple of months ago, the market was pricing in a Fed rate cut in the July and August meetings. And despite the fact that we're now pricing in subsequent rate hikes in both of those respective meetings. And despite the fact that we're now pricing in subsequent rate hikes in both of those respective meetings, the market is significantly higher than where it was two months ago. And so that context is really important because it's telling us that the market

and equities in particular are priced for an environment where rates are higher for longer. The market is a forward-looking pricing mechanism and it's allowed to skate to where the puck is going. It knows where the puck is going, and it's already telling us where it's moving. And so for me, when I think about risk on, risk off behavior, this is where I implement my technical analysis of my price structure. And so if the S&P 500 falls below the August of 2022 highs, which would basically be about a 3% decline, I'll move into a more defensive position. Until then, it's party on. The thing I've been saying all year is when the music's playing, you have to dance. The music's been playing almost all year. So you got to be dancing,

otherwise you've been left in the dust. Dave, Dave, Dave, are you dancing? Should we dance in crypto as well, Dave? Because it's been looking good for us as well. Well, I mean, I think the bottom line is, is I completely agree with what he was just saying in terms of the market being looking forward. Look, the fact is, you know, Monday is generally when Mike McGlone and I argue about macro on with, you know, with Scott's show. And the fact of the matter is, is while the percentage of this rate rise has been historic, the absolute level of this rate rise is so far from historic, it's not even funny. I mean, we're still by pretty much every measure at negative real interest rates. Interest

rates are not even close to basically around historical averages at this point. And so you have to ask yourself the question, do you believe in growth or not? Yes or no? And so it depends on your investing. And there's a reason growth stocks are outdoing value, which by the way, I hate the way that we classify growth and value always have, but people are willing to pay up for growth. The thing about crypto that's interesting is, is there's Bitcoin and there's everything else. I expect that everything else will kind of go up with basically the tech stocks out there because that's basically what most of crypto is, is just a call on tech stocks. I think Bitcoin is in a different point. And I think that there, the long-term buying basically means there's very little overhead supply and speculators are kind of playing around these levels. And so, yeah, it takes one more long-term buyer and we see

yet another, you know, they move to another plateau. And so that's really what's gone on. I mean, a lot of what Bruce has said is philosophical, but the fact is there's a lot of real money behind that philosophy and the whole ETF decision and the narrative change that we've seen recently. It makes me extremely bullish on Bitcoin, regardless of everything else. All right, Dave, I'm going to shift to Binance and Coinbase because I know there's updates there. Before doing that, we do have a sponsor today. And that's a sponsor that's been on the show before. Obviously, they're pretty happy with the show. So they came on today. It's an interesting

one. I've never spoken about them. Ran has. I think Scott has as well on previous shows. So this is an interesting project. One, it took me a while to understand and feel comfortable talking about. And the name is Planet. The is pinned above let me remove danish's tweet check him out and why this is interesting is they started as a meme coin and we had a whole debate beforehand like should we have them should we not have them but they had a lot of celebrities and one massive celebrity um that is rumored and and there's enough information to say like we can almost confirm it that will be backing the the project so the the celebrity is messy there's no official confirmation from messy or planet and but messy did put out a video that has planet's logo and name in there

now what the hell is join our planet so the website is joinourplanet.com so they're essentially building a platform with a pretty interesting monetization structure. And their goal is to help the environment, help the planet. It's pretty simple, a pretty admirable goal. How they achieve it is still unclear. I haven't seen the white paper. I'm not sure if they've published it yet.

I wasn't able to access it. But you should check them out because they started as a meme coin and then shifted to a utility project. And the reason I'm saying check it out and the reason i'm comfortable talking about them first i jumped on a call with the founder before this asked him a whole bunch of questions again to feel comfortable more importantly they just got celebrity after celebrity um that they'll be announcing and they're going to start announcing utilities over the next few days and weeks so keep an eye out

on them check out the tweet pretty cool cool project. It's pinned above. The project's called Planet. Join our planet. And keep an eye out on their utility announcements over the next few days. And you should expect an official announcement from Messi or from them or from both. So that's the sponsor for today. I appreciate them sponsoring the show again for the third time. Let's get back to the news for today.

Coinbase and Binance. Let me go to my agenda because i'm gonna start with binance us binance we've butchered the binance discussion and i want to go to to our uh lawyers here as well john david carlos and block prof feel free to jump in at any time but looking at binance here at binance us and there's a tweet here by james stratton who's been on the show before binance US is in shambles. USDT trading at 0.92 and Bitcoin is trading at 27,700. Guys, is Binance US dead?

Does it have any hope of surviving? What should we expect to see with Binance US and how important is that for the industry, for the market? Should we pay attention, BlockProf? I think Binance US is DOA. There's no way they're going to let that platform continue in the United States, particularly with the anticipated DOJ investigation of finance globally. Finance global could continue in some other form with CZ stepping down. Some piece of it could continue under different ownership, but I think it's fair to say multiple pieces of the federal

government want a piece of CZ. What I would warn in the discussion ongoing, so much of crypto is regulatory headwinds, it's Fed macro headwinds. The Fed macro headwinds are hard to predict and they're multidirectional. Decreasing rates is bad for the risk on speculation, but it also means it's more likely that banks are going to implode and that's going to help Bitcoin long term. So it's multidirectional. So what I would say, just one sentence, my warning to everybody. Don't short term trade based on Fed news or on regulatory news because it's hard to predict what I'd do. Do what Warren Buffett would do if he was 30 years old. What's he look at? Fundamentals, real organic revenue in a protocol, users, and number of devs on the project. Great

report from Electric Capital. That gives you about that. But the question, but the question, the issue is with the SEC ambiguity, or they're not ambiguity anymore, with them cracking down on every token being a security, cracking down on Coinbase and Binance, we're going to talk about that in a bit. It's hard to determine fundamentals. Well, I think Binance US is dead. That actually proves benefits to Coinbase.

Coinbase is putting up a hell of a fight, and it's going to take a long time. At the very least, their case is going to last beyond Gary Gensler's tenure because it takes a couple years to resolve these things. That's why I've been on Coinbase to take over market share from Binance, which could be all right if it takes out that way.

That's Binance US. Do you have any concerns with Binance International? Yeah. Once DOJ gets a look in you, you come after them as speculated on something money laundering or something even worse sanctions. They could shut them down or a good part of them are at the very least for CZ out and institute different ownership. All right. I'm going to go. I really don't see that happening. I think that by far and away, Binance is the world's largest exchange. Reports of Binance going away, blowing up, etc. have been around for a long time. CZ, I've known him since 2013, very crafty guy. He's not a US citizen. He's not in the U.S. You know, all the fun that's been out there.

I mean, it's it's all it's going to start going away when Gensler's term is over. And he's certainly going to be able to despite. But Michael, despite the despite the DOJ investigation. Well, again, Binance U.S. is different than Binance. And they're not going to go in and like, you know, send, you know, planes into wherever he is. And first of all, he lives in the UAE, which doesn't even, you know, take in citizens and and have them extradited to the US. So, no, I would say Citi is not going to be, you know, extradited to the US for any kind of criminal charges. You know, if they have to pay a fine, great.

You know, HSBC probably pays larger fines than a given year than Binance will ever pay. Guys, I want to go to Coinbase. I'm going to read out an article here as well. And while I read this, I want to go through the audience. Bottom right corner, the purple circle. Are you concerned? Are you bullish, bearish? Are you concerned about

Binance and Coinbase? Or is that old news that's already been priced in and you don't really care that much? Just see how much we should still cover it. But I'm going to read out here, Daily Huddle put out a piece. SEC says Coinbase was well aware it may have been violating securities laws. That's according to court documents. New court documents reveal that the SEC believes Coinbase was aware that it was potentially violating securities laws prior to the regulator's lawsuit against the exchange. In new court filing, the SEC claims that despite knowing that it was conducting illicit actions,

the crypto firm made a calculated decision to continue as a means of growing its business. Now, I'm going to read out the exact segment, which goes into more detail. Quote, Coinbase also explicitly discouraged crypto asset issuers from using problematic statements in their marketing material that are traditionally associated with securities. As it's becoming a public company, Coinbase has repeatedly informed its shareholders of the risk that the crypto asset traded on its platform could be deemed securities and therefore that its conduct could violate federal securities laws, including in the very registration statement it now points to as proof

that the SEC supposedly blessed its conduct, which was one of the main arguments that Coinbase was making. These actions clearly show that Coinbase understood that the securities law could apply to its conduct and knew which rules to consider in evaluating the legality of its conduct, but nevertheless made the calculated decision to take on the risk in the name of growing its business. So John, Carlos, David, I want to get your thoughts on that particular segment.

Does that change things? Does that put Coinbase in a difficult position? Or is that something you would have expected? No, I completely expect it. I mean, understand that both sides are using general disclaimer language as sort of offensively. Coinbase says, look, two years ago, you blessed our business model and operation.

You made us go public. You said that it was in the public interest for us to be granted an IPO. You accelerated. You knew our business model. Therefore, this is, you know, absolutely stupid that you would go this way. And you did basically 180. Of course, now the SEC turns around and Coinbase, whenever a company registers, they have to give risk. So if you look at Coinbase registration and even every quarter, they're going to talk about risk to the platform, risk to the business. If Satoshi Nakamoto all of a sudden is known or his keys are activated and there's movement of his coins, that's a risk.

If the FTC were to come after and say that one of our listings does meet the definition of a security under Howie. That's a risk. So it's just general language. To me, we're in the same position we were a week ago before that. But others may disagree. David? Yeah, for Bruce, I'm going to do my best John Stark impression right now. You know, back when I was at the SEC, and all the times when I was doing these type of motions, it doesn't, I couldn't agree more with what John just said. First of all, this is not a change at all. This was always the generic language that the SEC was going to rely on. And by the way, everything the SEC said in that filing is true. Forget whether you agree with what they're saying. Everything the SEC put forward is the simple truth that

Coinbase filed all of these things. They filed all of their paperwork, whether it be the registration statement, when they filed for the IPO, when they told their investors in APs, they always did disclosure statements because that's what they were required to do. And Coinbase, whether you agree or disagree with their business model, has been trying to play by the public rules of the SEC for how they were setting up their business. And one of the things you do when you're not sure

and you're in that gray area is tell the people you're doing business with, i.e. the token issuers, stop saying stupid things publicly that may come back to bite you and me in the ass. So everything that the, everything the SEC filed is completely true. That's why, you know, where John and I disagree to some extent, I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk legal issue as that the Coinbase is going to win, that they're going to win on the pleadings. I think what we're about to see is the actual sausage being made in DC, which has led to this confused state, which is going to lead to judges

making judicial decisions without much guidance. And I do think older judges are not going to believe that crypto companies deserve special treatment. And I know that's, you know, talking some smack to the people who are around here, but that's not saying that crypto shouldn't have new laws. But for those of us who grew up in the 70s, 80s and 90s, you know, the internet law got written in, didn't get written until the 2000s. You know, everything that's happening now, it's a slow process that those early adopters usually don't like. So I see absolutely no change from last week to this week. This was exactly what the SEC was always going to file, what they always were going to say. And they're not wrong in anything they've said.

We just don't know whether or not they're going to win the argument. Carlos, Carlos, where do you stand on this? You know, Coinbase's legal counsel is a very, very stellar defense team. And I think what they filed here with this 12C motion, asking the court to potentially entertain a judgment based strictly on the pleadings is a brilliant legal tactic because it has now put the SEC on the defensive and the SEC is now having to potentially muster a lot of resources towards defending these types of complaints. Can I ask you a question? With the track record that the SEC has, which is a very impressive potentially muster a lot of resources towards defending these types of claims.

Can I ask you a question? With the track record that the SEC has, which is a very impressive track record, where do you stand on this? Do you think Coinbase has a chance to win in this case with what we know so far? I think if any platform in the crypto sector had a chance, it is Coinbase because they have the pockets to withstand this case. Although they are a public company and they do have to ultimately answer to shareholders and make decisions that are in the best interest of the shareholders, I think the company is in for a fight here. And I think they have not only a good deal of the facts on their side, but I think they also are a company that's got a proven track record for trying to play within the regulatory

lanes, and I think it's going to be a difficult uphill battle for the SEC to say otherwise. So Dave and Simon, my question to you is about the market. How big of an impact this will have? Should we keep watching the developments with Binance and Coinbase, or

most of it has already been priced in and the impact on the market will be relatively minimal. I'll go to you, David and Simon. And before doing that, I want to do two things. Number one, for everyone listening, there's a few tweets pinned above you should check out. The latest one is a pretty cool one. It's Hello Labs, which run the Killer Whales TV. So everyone listening, go to Killer Whales TV on Twitter. It's one of the best shows I've seen yet.

It's a shark tank crypto version of shark tank they didn't sponsor the show i'm just giving them a shout out because i love what they're doing and they're a crypto version of shark tank and me and ran were judges there and luckily scott was not so so we didn't have his his headache there but it was a it was a really really good uh good show the production was incredible they was filmed where batman was filmed where Batman was filmed, in Batman's cave. They're like a bunch of fuckers.

They spent like seven figures on production, I'm sure. So check them out. I think it's coming out in two months. And you can see how bad of a judge Ran is and how much better I am. So that's number one. And number two, if you want to work with us, if you want to sponsor the show, like we had Planet a sponsor earlier,

check the pinned tweets. There's an email there preferable to email us because that's what ran once for me you could just dm us as well me and ran um if you want to come on as a sponsor or work with us in in other ways so that's the two shout outs i need to give and lastly there's that ugly logo on on the panel this is our account for the crypto town hall we'll start hosting the shows from that ugly logo account called crypto town hall uh hopefully in the near future. So make sure it's giving love hearts right now.

Make sure you give that a follow. And there's my two co-hosts, Ran and Scott. Make sure you check them out and block them just to make sure that you don't have to see all their tweets. But I want to go back to the topic here. Dave and Simon, how important is all this to the market? Like Binance and Coinbase, we've butchered them. We've talked about them. We've talked about the resignations at Binance.

We know there's a DOJ investigation. We know what the SEC is going after them for. Should we really care, Dave? Or should we just let it be now and we've already covered it enough? Well, I think that Binance is, look, there could be a short-term reaction if it gets, you know, a left tail kind of thing where they try to shut it down. If at this point, however, if it's a unwind of Binance, you know, or a comeuppance to CZ, but Binance continues, you know, it's less and less of a deal. Every month that goes by, they're losing market share to others. OKEx and others are gaining on them. We watch this pretty consistently. There are new players. It's becoming less and less important. The fact that it's taken this time, it is what it is. Coinbase is a different matter. I think that the Coinbase story is extraordinarily bullish for the market. And I know that sounds contrarian, so let me explain. I view, and I've said this for weeks, I think that Gensler going after Coinbase was more or

less like Napoleon or Hitler going into Russia in the winter. I think opening a two-front war that they can't win, and they did it in a dumb way. They basically created a suit against Coinbase that Coinbase has to defend. There's no settlement if, in fact, you can't list, right? There's no settlement if your business doesn't continue. So Coinbase has been forced back into a corner, and they do have the deep pockets to deal with it. They do have significant facts on their side. And in fact, the SECs, what you just read earlier, Mario, it shows their desperation. Yeah, sure.

Coinbase is doing something which is intelligent, which is saying, look, eventually there's going to be regulation. We believe in that. We stand for it. Their entire narrative is regulation is good if, in fact, it's clear. So the fact that they tell people or potential issuers not to do things that they know will run afoul of eventual regulation is a good fact for them, not a bad fact. And the FCC is basically saying, well, look, it shows you know it's going to be securities laws. No. What they're saying is eventually there's going to be

regulation and things that are fiduciary duties, things about marketing. That's something that we believe in and we're trying to do that. And believe me, Coinbase's legal team is going to twist this and turn the argument against the FCC. As far as the fact that they knew, yeah, I mean, they knew. They put it in their original filing that, yeah, they know that a rogue SEC could go crazy and cause interference with them. That's something they had to tell investors. That doesn't mean that they think it's right. That doesn't mean they think they're going to lose. It means it's a risk. And so I think what's interesting here is when you combine that with Larry Fink's interview last week, which I know

you talked about, and the fact that BlackRock has chosen to go with Coinbase as a market of substantial size and go down that rabbit hole, means that the market is saying, look, these guys are going to survive. They're working on the right place. Dave, does it matter? First, I love

your take, really interesting take, but then my question to you is, does it matter? First, I love your take, really interesting take, but then my question to you is, does it matter? Because if Coinbase, let's say you're wrong, let's say Coinbase gets screwed, why does it matter? Because in this case, there's other players, and we've talked about this before, filling that void.

Wall Street is coming in. The herd is here to fill that void, no? No, no, no, come on. There's no other players. I mean, EDX, look, I've known, I know the principles of EDX. I've known them for decades and they're going to eventually have a platform that's going to work for Bitcoin and a couple of coins, but there's an entire marketplace where basically if Coinbase is illegal, then anyone who trades anything other than Bitcoin

and potentially not even ether is not legal. And this is just not going to happen. And the reality is, is it's very clear that that is not a politically winning position, including in today's Congress. So we have Democrats like Richie Torres agreeing with the Republicans who are basically howling at regulation by enforcement. David, one more question. Sorry to interrupt you, but this is just a fun question. I want to just enjoy asking that question. What happens to crypto if Gensler is out? Does it change much at the SEC? It depends who replaces them, right? It really does. I mean, look, at the end of the day, what matters is not Gary. What matters is Elizabeth Warren. It matters, is the anti-crypto army putting another appointee at the SEC,

or are we going to get someone who is more balanced? So you have Lemus Gillibrand and that stuff. But the point that I wanted to make, Mario, is the market is starting to come around to this point. The market is kind of saying, okay, we're living with this. This is what we're living with. But there are green shoots here, and they're undeniable green shoots. And that's where the bid's coming from. But the buyers are much more patient. They're not the speculative FOMO types.

And so that's why the market is stuck in this trading range. Last question, Dave, before I go to Simon, how much of an impact does the, and probably should have John Reid Stark as well for this question, I'll ask it next time, but how big of an impact does a chairman have at the SEC? So people love to blame presidents and prime ministers when an economy is doing bad or the country is doing bad, but then it's just not that simple. It's not all based on one person. It's a whole political system, a complex one. In the SEC, how much authority does a chairman have? Well, the reason Warren Davidson proposed to depoliticize the SEC is because the chairman,

as long as he can count on his two fellow party members voting with him, has immense power. This SEC has broken with precedent in a way that is almost impossible to understand in terms of just the sheer number of proposals, the sheer number of lawsuits that they're likely to have against those proposals. And it's all because this particular chair is extremely activist and has the votes to push things through. In previous chairs, didn't really do that. They generally wanted far more unanimity than we currently have. I mean, everything is 3-2 now. And that's definitely-

Man, as soon as I mentioned Gensler, the comments just going nuts. I can't believe how hated he is. Simon, I do want to wrap up the space. I think we've discussed all the topics today. And I'm going to link it back to what we should expect this week and all the macro numbers that we'll be getting over the next few days. Again, I'll repeat CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday,

jobless claims on Thursday as well, consumer sentiment on Friday with a whole bunch of bank earnings starting today, but most of them will be Friday. And all the Fed speakers that will be speaking this week. My question to you, Simon, is how important is this short term and medium term for the industry, for us in the crypto space? Yeah, sure. I do think it's important. It is really a US versus non-US argument on what the future of the industry looks like. So going through each iteration, you've got Binance US, irrelevant, priced into the market. There's no real volume there. It doesn't

move the needle in any way, shape or form. I think everyone believes that Binance US is gone. If another company wants to take that batter and then fine. Binance International is significant on the short-term price um if if they if it was determined this is much like operation chokepoint 1.0 where they took down the online gaming industry and they all relocated to another country that had bespoke regulations this is the same thing is the u.s going to have its own bespoke virtual asset service provider regime is it going to try and put it within securities laws or is it going to allow the industry to carry on under money transmitters? The answer to that question is a really important question that will affect price. And so Binance International is likely to be a smaller business because it makes less money to have all these,

you know, engage in all the shenanigans it's been engaging with but the coinbase case is significant for capital markets because if it were allowed to continue as it was then it would have a very disrupting effect on capital markets because large companies would decide to change their approach and that that that is significant. If you shoehorn it into securities laws or if you have virtual asset service provider regimes, that's an important question. It will affect markets.

It will affect the capabilities. So then my question to you, Simon, and this will be for the audience and every speaker on stage, very briefly, not allowed to be in the middle. Yeah, I'd say if you're bullish or bearish i want to start doing that in every in at least every couple of spaces simon bullish or bearish crypto um long-term bullish uh let's say this over the next 12 months police or bearish uh 12 months

yeah bullish into the bitcoin cycle harvey Cool. Bruce, bullish or bearish? Bullish, baby. Always bullish. I can see FTX collapsing. Bruce is like, fuck yeah, we're kind of good. Michael, I... Always been bullish, always been right. Respect. And Michael, bullish or bearish?

You still have... I'm going to ask it for Michael. He still has his A profile photo. No, no, no, no, no. I am not bearish, but I'd say I think it's going to be flat until about October. And then I'm bullish. Nice. All right.

We've got BlockProf. Bullish or bearish, sir? Bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum but I will say if you're not investing 5 or 10 years on fundamentals I can't your returns are going to be no different from random. So not bullish on on ALTS I guess? Bullish on ALTS 5-10. Ah cool 5-10 years Jesus man all right. John Mr Deaton are you bullish or bearish sir? Bullish and there's a reason Coinbase is up 50 since the sec suited oh shit i haven't it's true i should have mentioned that appreciate it dave are you bullish or bearish bullish i think this fall we might see a pullback on the tech you know sector etc etc on the stock market but net net i

think a year from now we find ourselves substantively up and bitcoin extremely bullish pretty much the whole way oh wow okay mr silver are you on the train with everyone else being bullish sure i'm gonna be the one who says it's short-term bearish but longer than october so i'll go past turpin long-term two years out uh bullish but when the market collapses crypto collapses but do you think do you think we've seen the bottom uh dav? Not even close. Oh, wow. Holy shit.

That's extremely bearish. And then we'll go to Carlo. Carlo, are you bullish or with David? Because David kind of ruined the whole sentiment. No, I'm bullish. I think that a big deciding factor is going to be what comes out of Congress this summer. It seems that they're serious about finally pushing through some meaningful crypto legislation. If that happens, I think Clarity is going to be ultimately very good for the crypto market. I'm going through the audience.

I think everyone's like, Mario, why is everyone bullish? It's becoming an echo chamber. People love to attack me because I always say no echo chambers. So whenever there's a sense of echo chamber, I get attacked. And then Mr. Silver came in and mixed it up and now comments are more. But most people here in the comments are bullish. So yeah, pretty cool. It's all the damage.

True, true. But we've only, yeah, I don't know. I wasn't a big fan of that narrative, but it's become self-fulfilling. So yeah, we'll see. We'll see. The fear and greed index is at 57, down a bit over the last few days, but pretty damn good. And we'll see what happens this the fear and greed index is at 57 down a bit over the last few days but

pretty damn good um and we'll see what happens this week but otherwise great space really appreciate it again for the audience if you're on another project that messy may or may not be looks like he's gonna be providing the website is joinourplanet.com i've pinned a tweet above they're sponsoring for the third time so it must be going well for them um so if you want to come up as a sponsor hit us up um and remember to please block ran and scott just for the third time. So it must be going well for them. So if you want to come up as a sponsor, hit us up. And remember to please block Ran and Scott just for the fun of it. Really appreciate you all.

We'll see you tomorrow morning, same time. Thanks a lot, everyone. And thanks to our incredible panel. Bye, everyone.