The Wolf Of All Streets - CPI - IDOs - Memecoins | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: June 12, 2024

Crypto Town Hall is a daily X Spaces hosted by Scott Melker, Ran Neuner & Mario Nawfal. Every day we discuss the latest news in crypto and bring the biggest names in the space to share their insight. ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/    ►► OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $10,000!  👉  https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL  - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets    Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.  Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Mr. Wolf, can you hear me? I hear you now. How are you? I'm good, buddy. It's been a long time. It has, it has, and here we are again. What's your, before we get into the CPI data, it's good to have you on a crypto show again. But what do you think of the current state of the world, Robert, while waiting for everyone to join the space? Like, things are interesting, to say the least.

We haven't spoken for a while, so we could just do a quick recap, get your thoughts on it now. Yeah, I mean, listen, it's too polarizing for all of us, right? Everyone goes to their corner, and it feels like it's Trump 24-7. He's the red meat for good or bad. And I think it's going to be a bit of a crazy election year um i think the economy feels pretty good out in the states but geopolitical risk feels like it's everywhere yeah we do have scott he's got this is a cpi space so your area of expertise i'm glad you were able to make it you want to hear cpi space is is

45 seconds of reporting what everybody knew and then moving on with their lives but when i was happy you're here and i'll just take it completely back well i i i made a mistake this morning and it was something that you know i'm on vacation so like i'm not staying on top of my uh my production for youtube as much. Uh, Robert, you'll probably get a laugh out of that. I've changed. I've changed. I've changed the title for you, Scott. Is that better now? And so I, I, uh, my, my producer, which is fine. He made my,

and it's my job to, I think objectively in an unbiased manner, try to report what's going on in crypto on my show. But we made the, uh, well, I won't say mistake, just a very humorous, uhous move of putting Donald Trump's name in my YouTube title. Holy God, the comments I've never like it was actually very entertaining. I was actually Chris was with me at Inc. So I was having trouble listening to what he was saying because I was dying reading the comments like the anger. And Mike Alfred was my first guest on the show and he was talking about you know how he would have never thought he would vote for Donald Trump but maybe he will because of

his uh kind of turning stance but he was like but he said things in the past like drink Lysol or eat Lysol to you know get rid of covid he was joking but anyways really quick and then we went into and then the comments went into like a death spiral of like Trump bots or a human pretending to be bots about like the technicalities of what he said about light on the inside your body and we're idiots that and it was just it turned it just devolved into just absolute hilarity in the comments people are still fighting over like what someone says about what someone said four years ago when we're trying to talk about bitcoin well i've changed the title for you scott um so so that that should make you less angry but that is a much better title i'm just saying cpi came in in line everything pumped great next i'm looking at your space so look at you and you and ryan ryan is ryan's latest uh videos four hours ago prepare for a massive altcoin explosion

and then scott's video is can donald trump make make bitcoin great again so i don't know how to structure this into this this discussion it's just i just find it hilarious like so half the people in my comments are like scott you vote for your bags you don't give a shit. Like you love Donald Trump now. I'm like, no, I think it's a piece of shit. I don't care about politics. And they're like, Oh, you'd vote Biden. You keep turning. I'm like, no, I think he's an old piece. Like, I don't care. Right. So like my, my ambivalence about politics was just hilarious to see it sort of in the comments. So I, then I started calling them snowflakes to trigger them.

They didn't like that very much. Yeah. So I've just, again, titles changed. I've got the panel here. We've got Robert here again as a special guest. I want to – Scott, I know you don't care much about the CPI, but I do want you, if you could explore it with the panel, if that's the case, sir, if you don't mind. No, it is worth unpacking because I think, obviously, we have sort of two huge fundamental events, at least events that people view as fundamentally important for the economy, which is the FOMC meeting, of course. I think there's no expectation that we see a rate hike or a cut at this meeting. And especially now that CPI came in somewhat in line,

I think it was 3.4 with an expectation of 3.5. Everybody understands by now that the number in a vacuum is less relevant than the number versus the expectation. So it came in under the expectation. We're seeing it continuing cooling off. So since we live in the upside down, we all by now understand from talking this to death that when we see inflation coming down even slightly versus expectation, that ramps up people's belief that we will see a rate cut, which they think will add more liquidity and make markets go up. So risk assets basically pump when there's an indication that inflation might come down. When it goes the other way, people get panicked. Mario? Yes, Robert. Mario? Yes, sir. You asked me to come on. I'm assuming there's a reason for this. You can break this down for us. I'd rather

have Robert do it. Go, Robert. Okay. Robert, are you there? Are we on? Yeah, we can hear you. So Scott,ott just asked you uh would love to get your thoughts on the cpi data today and what that means because i know you've been covering it with us on the finance space for a while yeah so uh i think um listen headline news and headline cpi is it was cooler than expected. This is obviously playing incredibly well in the markets today, mainly because it's the opposite of Friday's jobs report, which was hot.

And really, for the most part, most people took a Fed rate cut off the table after Friday's report. This all of a sudden brings them back on. There's probably a better than 50% chance, at least by the economists, that there'll be a September and a very likely chance in November. I want to be clear right up front. I don't agree with either of that. I don't think the Fed should do anything. They certainly won't do anything today. I don't think they should do anything in September. And I don't think they should do anything in 2024. So I'm against the grain on where some of the economists

will be after today's number. Yes, it was cooler. And yes, the trend is your friend. But we're still talking about fairly de minimis. We're talking about 3.4 and 3.3 versus 3.5 and 3.4. I think some of the things that will get more news is, you know, it's the lowest headline month over month since May of 2020. It's the lowest core month over month since August twenty twenty one. And it's the lowest core year on year since April twenty twenty one. So certainly I think from an inflation rate perspective. Yes- you know we're down by two

thirds. Still though when a when we're discussing price. Although things like- grocery food prices are flatter down for four straight months. And gas is now under 350, which feels good going into the summer. And that will be good political headlines. With that being said, prices are still up, you know, 20 percent ish over an aggregated time period when when inflation kind of got sticky um i don't think that i think the fed may take a bit of a victory lap today you know and kind of discount a little bit about the hot

jobs number i think that would be a wrong move um my guess is they'll lean um with one or two cuts for this year. So it will probably be a bit dovish expectation. But as many of you know, on this call, the Fed has been all over the place the last couple of years. I mean, I think, you know, most of you guys will say that this is kind of a bit boring, but I think that some of the headline news will actually build some momentum. Certainly, the two-year note is down pretty significantly, and the market's loving it. So I'll pause there for questions. Yeah, Robert, interestingly, you said we had the hot jobs numbers last week, because the market, the headline number was 275 or, you know, versus 185 on the top line. So I think that the initial sort of knee jerk reaction to the jobs report, which is the number they want you to see was that jobs, you know, way more jobs than expected. So exceptional numbers, great. But

to your point, when you actually dug in, you know, we lost over 600,000 full time jobs, it was up a few 100,000 in part time jobs, and unemployment was up to 4% from 3.9%, which was sort of a line that Paul has talked about in the past. So it was mixed. But I think the perception was that it was a good job report. I don't know if you agree or disagree, but I agree with you. I don't think Powell will talk about that because they can go off of the number of more jobs than expected and move on and not really dig into the nuance. Rob, are you there?

All right. I'm not sure if you can hear me. Oh, no, you're back. Yeah. Do you hear me? Yeah, I feel like Friday's job report was very good. And I thought it was much, much better than expected, even the underlying. differences. They'll be able to gloss it over. They'll be able to look at other areas where wage growth isn't as hot as it was, although still it's outperforming inflation. I think they'll just kind of say that we're going to see, but I do think it'll be more dovish than nothing.

But I personally think they shouldn't do a thing. I think, you know, my view is the geopolitical risk is still, you know, front and center. I think they'll applaud that gas is under 350, but that could be short-lived into the summer months. And especially, you know, that OPEC has cut production. So my view is, you know, I don't think, you know, I know if you look at kind of the forecast futures, it looks like I think it's a 55% rate cut for September or something. Those haven't been right. Yeah, they've been always wrong. So, you know, I've been kind of consistent all along. I think we're going to have long tail inflation. If, in my opinion, the Fed's not going to do it, but they should change the target from

two to two and a half to three to three and a half. And then we can have a different conversation because we would be fine with inflation at three, three and a half, especially if wages are outperforming. But that's not on the table either. So, like I said, I think you'll start seeing leaning to rate cuts again. And they have to lean today. You know, they're obviously not, quote unquote, supposed to be political at all. But, you know, you know, everyone will take that, you know, if they become dovish that this is political. So it will be, I think, really an interesting comment, what they make today and the questions that people will ask. I agree with you objectively, they should do nothing. There's been absolutely no reason to cut. And interesting, you said, obviously, that the Fed is non-political. I mean, we know that Powell pushed back against Trump previously,

but now we have Elizabethizabeth warren and others literally writing letters to the fed telling them to cut what do you make of that they've done it they've done it for the last three meetings every meeting it's nothing new the these letters that elizabeth warren's writing she's been writing there every before every fomc meeting i i think i think it's meaningless when a politician writes to the Fed. I think Powell and his team is apolitical, and they've been wrong, you know, where it's gone against the grain. I mean, you know, I mean, we had, you know, eight years of zero rates, and then all of a sudden we go up to, you know, huge inflation, and they go

you know rate rate hike rate hike rate hike rate hike rate hike and you know if you see what's going on in in in the marketplace i i think they've been off sides in my opinion they're finally on sides they have enough tools in the toolbox to do things and they should keep those tools um the trend has gone their way it's not exactly on their same timetable but you know to everyone's point i don't think they should do shit in here but um you know but it will be interesting like i said i think they'll have a dovish tone today ran i wasn't aware that they were in the letter every time. Yeah, Elizabeth Warren writes Jerome Powell in the letter before every meeting, urging him to reduce rates. So it's not a new thing.

It just plays well politically, I'm sure. I agree with Robert that we're getting a very dovish Powell today. I think we will get a dovish Powell today. I don't think there's too much that he can be hawkish about. I mean, maybe the jobs report, but the jobs report isn't so bad, as you guys mentioned. So I think it's going to be a dovish Powell today. I don't think there's too much that he can be hawkish about. I mean, maybe the jobs report, but the jobs report isn't so bad, as you guys mentioned. So I think it's going to be a dovish pile today. I actually tweeted this morning, and I said we're going to get a lower than expected CPI print

and a more dovish pile. And now that I see we've got Vinny here on the panel, I wonder whether I'm going to win the bet that we took where he said the next move is a rate increase, and I said the next move is a rate cut. So now that we have Vinny here, I'd love to hear how he's going to repay my bet or whether he's ready to repay. I will say that I think it's very bullish for the next 30 days until the next CPI print.

I agree that they're not going to do anything today. It's going to be like, hey, guys, IFLong is working. We remain committed to our 2% target, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And I don't think it'll be dovish. I think it'll be pretty neutral. I don't think it'll be hawkish either. It'll be like, look, everything's going in the right direction. We've had some bumps in the road with the jobs report. But, you know, or rather, labor remains strong.

So we don't need to cut right now. And, yeah, it's the other course. I still don't think we're going to get a cut in september i i think that you know like look the fed doesn't really want to cut going into an election or raise right they want to be neutral the whole time as much as people think they're political they're also like they don't want to be seen to be taking sides and obviously cutting is going to be helpful to one side versus another so i think they're going to be and by the way this is like there's actually less of my view than me listening to Jim Bianco.

He was saying that about a month ago, and he just doesn't think that there'll be any action from September onwards. And so I kind of agree with that view. So the rest of the year, no cuts, no hikes. I think they just steer the course and see where it goes. So it's higher for longer. And then I think in next year, depending on where inflation is, and I do think we're still

in an inflationary environment, especially because I don't think the current rates are restrictive enough. And you're seeing that in meme coins and meme stocks and everything else that's going on. And just my observation is I just think that we're going to go sideways

and maybe even sort of go back up. So this month, yeah, 0.1. Vinny, I cannot believe, Vinny, that you just said that the Fed is apolitical. Jesus, Vinny. No, no, no, no, no, no. I said they don't want to be seen as being political, right? Well, that ship has sailed. They said that inflation was transitory.

They lied because it was good for politics. They said that they have beaten inflation by the way yes it was better than expectations folks but do you know what the number actually was headline 3.5 we're supposed to be at i remember there's something about two percent possibly i don't know maybe i'm fucking taking crazy pills now but jesus christ we are so far away from being this whole soft landing thing is fucking making me lose my mind. It's just like what I said was I was, you know, exposing like Jim Bianco's view that they won't make any changes typically in

an election year in the last couple of, um, the, you know, like outside of an emergency, they're not going to make any changes for the rest of the year. If they don't do any cuts right now, and this is his view and he's, you know, he's a well-recorded macro. Oh, I love Joe. He's been on our shows many times. Yeah, I agree with you. Exactly.

So I'm just saying that's what he's saying. And it makes sense that they're not going to, you know, if things are in the sort of range bound as they are right now, I just don't see how the Fed makes any changes. And I agree with Robert. Like, they should increase the inflation target to, you know, three, three and a half percent. Like it should be there, but they're not doing that. They're staying in the course with their 2% target. So we can expect literally no changes right now. And by the way, I think this is kind of bullish because, and I think it's bullish for markets

because this stability is great and there's inflation. We know there's inflation and it is sticky. So asset prices should rise as a result. I mean, just to be clear, we're debasing our dollar right now. This is like one of the worst. Agreed. Yes. Anything that's worth anything will be worth more because the dollar is worth less. Right. Yes, that is a correct statement.

But it doesn't mean that the actual value of these companies are going up. Just the multiples are. One thing I was going to say is you can see the chart up there. Nothing is going down. Like actually nothing has actually gone down. It's just like you said, going range bound and sideways. It's inflation adjusted. Everything's inflation adjusting right now.

And that's the reality. And remember, the inflation calcs, you know, they are what they are. I mean, CPR is bullshit. i agree yeah yeah but you look at you look at some sectors like they're up 20 15 whatever like you're gonna see you know companies adjust their prices for these sectors and they're gonna you know their earnings will rise as long as everything else remains equal right so just to kind of give a different perspective, the truth is that behind closed doors, this Fed is stealing money from all of us. And people know how I feel about it. They are literally stealing your money.

They're tapering QT that nobody pays attention to. Everybody talks about interest rates, interest rates. How can this Fed in this current regime actually be tapering quantitative tightening? Essentially, it's not the same, but essentially forming QE in a world where the average American is paying more and more money. And yes, is inflation, quote unquote, moderating from 9.1 to now 3.5? So where do we disagree? Because like, I agree with all these things. Where we disagree is that this is not 100% a disagree is what they're that this is not 100 a political hit job and that this is not 100 the fed is not being what i said is they don't want to appear to be political i didn't say they're not political

that's where we disagree i don't think they give a fuck about that anymore. I think they're done caring about it. No, I think... Because Yellen and Jerome Powell are tied at the hip, and it's very clear that... By the way, at the beginning of this year, the market and the crypto bros all said there were going to be seven cuts. Reminder.

Yeah, I said there would be none. You look at my tweets. I agree with you. Just so you know, I still think... So the treasury market is only drawing to the hip insofar as they can't sell their bonds. And look at yesterday's auction, okay? And there's a 30-year today as well. There isn't a problem here, guys.

These guys are selling the bonds. I don't know who the buyers are, but people are selling these bonds. And so right now, there's no need for them to make any adjustments because people are buying the bonds. The other thing that we disagree at is whether this is bullish. I actually think this is incredibly bearish. No, no, no. Look at the short term. I said the next 30 days until CPI comes out in next month, it's going to be a bullish cycle because everyone's excited. And we have to look at the next set of numbers to make a decision which way we go. So I'm bullish over the next month or so until the next CPI print. I think the reason why I'm saying it's bearish is because I think globally we are a global economy.

I think globally other countries are having incredible issues. Can I see demand issues first? Just to chime in. Go ahead, Robert. Sorry. Just to chime in. I think that the prior speaker – I'm sorry. I don't know the different people.

But I think he said it's bullish on asset prices. Yes, that's correct. I agree. I mean, right, if we are in this lower rate environment, and even if there's a 50-50 chance that people think that we're going to have a September cut and a November cut, which I disagree with. But, you know, if we're in a lower rate environment, you're going to see, you know, first of all, you're going to see the housing market do a little better because that's going to give people mobility. You're going to see resets on some lending. You're going to see, you know, credit card debt come down slightly. I mean, all those things are going to be bullish for assets in a consumer-driven economy, right?

And maybe it will even help consumer confidence, which has been, you know, lagging a bit. So, yeah, I think a lower rate environment, which we're starting to see, you know, certainly helps. I don't agree with it. I actually think Fed funds should stay north of 5%. Agreed. I agree with you. I do think that I do think that the sentiment, you know, for the next, at least until the next CPI print, people are going to feel pretty good about it. Hey, Danish, and the one thing that we're not focused on is the, you know, the outstanding

potential losses at small banks, I just posted in the comments, I'll post it up. The unrealized losses on investment securities at banks is on the order of over 500 billion. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It does matter when Moody's

is downgrading banks. That's what they're starting to allude to. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter because, first of all, the Fed's going to. It doesn't matter. First of all, the Fed's going to provide the liquidity right now. Guys, it only matters when something breaks.

It only matters when something breaks. It doesn't matter when everything's going sideways, higher for longer, lots of people buying the debts and the bonds. It doesn't matter because they just do banks and funding program 2.0. It doesn't matter. But just do banks and funding program 2.0. It doesn't matter. But when something breaks and liquidity is- Well, as maybe the only guy on this call that

ran a bank, I would probably agree that it does matter a bit. And we should dissect, and we don't need to get into it today, But, you know, there's a real disintermediation going on right between regional banks and large banks. But banks did get some good news today that Basel, you know, I think it's now three is being delayed again. So that means that the capital needs for the banks is going to be, you know, kind of like U.S. got what they wanted. Yeah, but Robert, shouldn't the American consumer

be completely freaked out that they delayed it again? No. Really? So now we're saying that the banks need to have smaller... No, because, by the way, the large US banks never were supportive of it, and they were going to flip the bird anyway to Basel on it. I mean,

if you listen to, you know, the large bank CEOs talk about Basel 3, it's not like they were ever on board to begin with. They already think they're putting too much capital against their risk based on where their leverage is versus banks all over. And remember, there is a difference in accounting between GAAP and IFRS accounting. So there's a lot going on there not to get in the weeds. I would say that, you know, I would be nervous of some of the regional banks and their portfolio. And then they acted like a big, they acted like a big SNL a few years back and they haven't priced their portfolio. Right. And, and yeah, there's going to be capital losses. And yeah, I would be percentage of Americans have that right now? Most people have their wealth completely concentrated in, like, seven stocks, like, at the S&P.

I'm just being honest. That's what I meant. Well, I mean, that's accurate, right? I mean, you know, in the sense that, you know, cash has been, you know, pretty vibrant recently when you get 5% for keeping your money in the bank, right? You see where bank deposits have gone off the charts. You know, listen, like I said, I think, the winds at the back in the economy, but consumer confidence has been pretty shitty recently. I actually think a number like today will help it out about. And like I said, headline news is going to be, whether it's political or not,

it's going to be political. If I was the Biden administration, I would tell things like gas is under 350 all day. I would tell things such as grocery prices have remained flat. I would say that inflation month over month is zero. I would say that inflation month over month is a low in four years. There's going to be headline news that make people feel a little better. And we live in a tagline society. So a lot of that is based on what people see in the taglines, right? We're a bumper sticker society. We don't have everyone listening to these type of intelligent calls. So I would say that I think for the next, you know, 30 plus, you know, to 60 days, it's going to feel pretty good. Well, the opposition has a lot of a lot better talking points really quick.

Since the Biden administration has come on board, we have seen prices go up more than 20%, which is actually what people feel. By the way, I said timeout. I said that earlier that there's a difference between inflation rate and aggregate pricing. I was not making a political. I took I was just telling you facts. I was not just making. But the average American doesn't care if they say that month over month inflation's gone zero because they're at they're at the grocery store saying, holy crap, how am I going to make my rent payment this year?

It's like this is what's happening. The sentiment is actually going to show up at the polls just as a heads up to make the connection. Not only that, but everything across right now, every decision they're making from a financial perspective is losing the moderates like myself. Everything's crypto. I'm not going to debate that now, but we can debate the campaign and the economics whenever you want, but we don't have to do it. I want to ask Robert a question. Robert, what do you think it's going to take for this? I mean, look, I agree these losses of the banks are ridiculous, but what's going to take for it to unwind? Because in my mind, all I see happening is consolidation in the banking sector and more banks being acquired by the big guys over time. I don't see, like, you know, they're playing a

duration game right now. So tell me what you think, you know, what are you concerned about happening that actually unwinds the situation? I don't think it what you think. What are you concerned about happening that actually unwinds the situation? I don't think it unwinds. I think you just answered yourself. Exactly. And that's my point. I'm not concerned. No, no. I'm saying I think the big banks continue. I don't see this big contagion effect on commercial real estate. I think there's enough shadow banking and sideline money at the right prices. People come in and buy the old loans. I'm not as nervous. I'm

saying I'm not that nervous on the banking system. I thought you disagreed with me earlier on when I said that it's like a non-issue. No, no, time out. I said pricing's always an issue. I said, but they got some relief with Basel III is what I was trying to say.

And regionals, there's issues at regionals but not contagion. No, no, exactly. Exactly. That's all I want. Yeah. This just basically forces the – I mean the U.S. has got way too many banks in my opinion. As someone who came from South Africa and now living here, I'm like it makes no sense to have this many banks it's a mess well the country is the 80 20 rule going to 90 10 so most of the deposits are going to just be at the larger banks anyway well that's exactly

it i wouldn't trust the regional bank with my cash i just i just wouldn't one question i had was do we see the dot plots being different from this new data? The answer is probably not. Correct? Do we all agree that the dot plots are not going to be any different? No change. No change. No change. Yeah.

Well, guys, I have to hop. I know you guys have a lot more exciting things to talk about, like crypto, but I appreciate Mario and team inviting me on. Thank you, Robert. Always, always great to get your perspective. You know, as someone who actually ran a bank, as you on. Thank you, Robert. Always great to get your perspective. You know, as someone who actually ran a bank, as you said. Thank you. As long as you didn't trigger a bank run.

He was at UBS. Well, let's not talk about this, but he was at UBS. Robert knows I'm kidding, but go ahead. It's okay. You said it after he left so you're you're in safe i've said it to his face as well just so you know i i know i've been on the space as many times with those conversations absolutely hilarious i find it interesting i mean you know we should probably obviously pivot at least a bit to bitcoin that um yesterday it was uh the

dip to end all dips and we were dying and then then, you know, CPI hits and Bitcoin right back to kind of where it was up a few percent on the day. Classic. Yeah. And no surprises in my mind. I don't know if it's about. Go ahead, Vinny. Yeah, I was going to say that I think Bitcoin, like the Bitcoin cycle continues. There's nothing in the macro that's going to stop it right now.

So there's probably a good line of sight to 90K in the next couple of months or weeks. The CPI next month is the only thing. I think CPI every month is this pause where we just sit and wait and see what it looks like. And if it's all good, keep going. So I would say I'm bullish. I'm actually going to be bullish on some alts, I think. I think a lot of this downswing in the past couple of days and weeks, alts have sold off tremendously.

And I just think there's a lot of discount there. So I think you get better gearing on those if you have enough exposure on Bitcoin in your portfolio. But I got to run. But I want to say before I run, run, the other one, say before I run, run, the other run, before you do a victory lap, let's just wait and see

how this plays out. I'm willing to double down. If you're saying that the Fed's next move is going to be to rate increase, I'm saying it's going to be to decrease. I'm willing to double down. Guys, you put money on the table? What was the bet?

I don't remember what the bet was. Well, I mean you guys you put it you put money on the table. What is the bit? Go hard on this right? I think he's been in crypto since 2000 so so so you could do a big battle And I know banter is doing well as well. So what's the number? Vinnie, whatever you want. I'm telling you to face next move is done. I need odds. I need odds in it because I'm a minority. The other day you came out of your shouting set telling us it's going to be – It's all risk adjusted. But anyway, my point is no changes this year, Ron.

And then let's see where next year takes us. I say the next move is done. I just don't know when, but the next move is done i just don't know when but the next move is done okay cool guys thank you thanks ready dave yeah i mean i always enjoy listening to uh people in in in the in trad fi and you know talking about the rates i think robert made some good points, but the commentary that the Fed is apolitical, which he has to say because he's in a Fed-regulated bank, is just, I don't know. Maybe I've gotten more cynical with age, but arguably one of the single most ridiculous statements that we've ever seen. And I love the comeback, and I forgot who made it, about, you

know, their commentary on inflation being transitory as proof of their political nature. I mean, there is no way in hell the Fed wants to be seen as being in a restrictive policy mode going into the election. They 100% want to be able to claim that where they are is neutral. And neutral means Rand wins his bet. Because the entire world of politics on both sides would claim that where they are now is restrictive. Because when the Fed funds rate is higher than the inflation rate, then it is considered restrictive. Now, is it really higher? Honestly, no. But it doesn't matter. It's what the numbers say. So the numbers say the Fed funds rate is restrictive, and there's no way

they want to be. So they're at least going to move towards neutrality. So Rand's going to win. Now that- But Dave, isn't there a point that if they cut, they'll be viewed as political because it's ahead of an election? Yeah, of course they will. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I mean, Powell's not going to get rene him by whoever wins. You know, he's done. So what he's trying to do is what he actually cares about is not to be the Federal Reserve chairman that loses control of long rates. That's what he cares about. All the stuff on the short end is a lot of arm waving. And, you know, we've talked about that on our Macro Monday show many, many times. But look, you know, when I woke up and I saw the CPI print and I saw the way the market was today and I saw that my email box, because, you know, some of it goes to spam. I saw my Coinbase account had the Bitcoin is down 5% and the Bitcoin is up 5% right next to each other in the way that I have it filtered.

I just laughed. And all I could think of was the original Karate Kid. Remember Mr. Miyagi, wax on, wax off? That's what we're doing. We're in a range in certain terms of Bitcoin. And it's in that range and it's trading. It's trending toward the top of the range again. But it's a range and it's going to bounce up and down.

Now, alts are different. And I think that what we saw this week was actually relevant. I mean, the Bitcoin Ether ratio has moderated rather significantly. It was pushing towards 0.058 not too long ago on the announcement. It's back down to 0.052. That's a pretty substantive move back down towards the middle of its recent range, which is the bottom half of its longer term carve out. So it's telling you that the speculative money, the Ether money is a little bit weaker than Bitcoin. Now, honestly, does that make it a buy opportunity? I know a lot of people on this call think that the answer to that is yes, and it may very well be so. But I think if you want to understand animal spirits in the crypto market, you have to look at that. And you have to look at some of the bigger ones like Solana and others, which are also, while it bounced today, still showing significant weakness vis-a-vis Bitcoin from where the all-time highs were. Alex, you had your hand up before. Yeah, I would say I think the interesting thing is just been watching the Bitcoin movements

against all of the recent CPI prints. And basically, it just feels like Bitcoin's gotten back to this place of any news is good news for it. It's the, it gets It starts dropping in between. I mean, obviously, it goes up and down a lot overall. But I think kind of to Dave's point, as soon as there's news that can relate against it, we tend to get a spike against it. And I'll drop back off of it. I'll go back down.

We'll go back down. But the more it's just in the news, the better it is. Keeps going up, not unlike Donald Trump. Yeah, I think I agree with you that we basically just get downturns when it's boring. And so there's nothing happening. We see it drop and then all of a sudden it skyrockets on any news. But I guess it begs the question of when we're going to actually see that range broken that Dave talked about. I mean, I think we could argue that there's sort of a 74 to 67-ish range and then a 67 to 60-ish range.

And that makes a larger range, you know, 60 to 74. If the halving cycle is correct and we believe in that, then it's six months after the halving puts us in the fall. Does anyone here have an expectation? I mean, Vinny said he thought 90 earlier, you know, so that he thought 90 in the summer. Is anyone thinking that we're going to see those much higher prices before the fall? I would love to hear anyone's opinion. Jed, go ahead. I saw you lift your mic. um yeah uh on bitcoin price projections um kind of the way that i continue to look at it is like really where the new money is coming from and um it's definitely uh in terms of crypto native money pvp still uh money going into various meme coins um and uh basically uh one account money going to another account. So I don't really see a lot of new money coming in. The argument is, OK, the ETF money from institutions

to Bitcoin is coming in. But obviously that's very different cash than crypto native money. So because it sits on institutional portals and sites and it's like not actively traded into alts and all that kind of stuff. So I think that's why we're not seeing like a alt pump as well. And there's like a new factor that we're seeing in terms of the ETF and kind of what kind of positions that unlocks. And that's the famous basis trade. So obviously we all know the basis trade. We see Athena kind of has basically created a stable coin

that shows that type of yield. And so now that institutions have access to the basis trade as well, we're seeing a lot of hedging happening on the trade as well, we're seeing a lot of a lot of hedging happening on the ETF as well. So yeah, so I think that's like, we're kind of stuck in this range. And yeah, I think the big catalyst, obviously, the ETF when it actually goes, you know, you know, when that when the s ones go through and everything's approved, I think we'll see

some nice inflows then I don't know how big it might be. I don't think it's gonna be Bitcoin level. And then obviously, the big biggest catalyst is November is November's election. So I think we chop for the next lease for the summer. Jed, your thoughts on the outflows that we saw yesterday, $200 million in outflows for Bitcoin ETFs. Did you? Does this volatility? Were you in any way because I mean, we've discussed discusses how sticky are these inflows? And how would they react to a correction in the markets? Yeah, I think I think paying like really, really going down

to every single day on the inflows and outflows. There's a lot happening behind the scenes. A lot of institutions are opening up to, to, to their, their investors after like a 90, 120 day waiting period. So we're seeing inflows and outflows,

but I think, I think paying, paying very close attention, like, Oh my God, one day it's 200 outflow. And the next day it's 800 million million in or like, which was great, which happened last week. One day I think is kind of, it's, it's a tough way to kind of really try to figure out what range we be in because of the hedging and because of the ways we trade. I think that's, there's

a lot happening that we don't know about. It's not crypto native money. A lot happens traditional. I want to ask you one more question then going to Robert as well as going back to the FOMC later today. But Jed, just your thoughts on the Bitcoin versus altcoins and Bitcoin dominance over the last couple of months. We haven't had you on stage for a while. And also your expectations when it comes to the ETH because obviously we've stopped discussing it now and stopped trying to speculate, but never got your thoughts on it. How important is it? What impact do you think if any will have on the markets, what inflows do you expect to happen?

And what does that mean for Ethereum versus other other L1s? Yeah, alts. So I think I think something that's that's a bit concerning is we are seeing relatively large projects like Like, like we had like an L2 launch this week called Tyco. You know, and that, you know, that was a very hyped up L2. It's a, it's a ZK roll up. It's, it's been built for, for many years. And it launched at about a $2 billion valuation. So we're seeing these new valuations, even though they're low flow, come down significantly. So I think that's actually not a great thing because ultimately, the retail buyer is not coming in and really increasing these really hyped up launches.

So we have ZK Sync coming up soon. There's a lot of similar. So yeah, I'm not super bullish on, on, on the alts. I believe that, that again, the, the,

the, the ETF I'm bullish on, but sorry, before we got to the ETF, why are you that bullish on alts? Why are we seeing those valuations in that lack of, of retail demand? Like,

you know, it's a good project. projects are still doing well. Obviously, today we did the show for the launch for – Jesus. Which one launched today at a $4 billion valuation, guys? Help me. We're invested. But I've just got a blank. Anyway, so it's –

Ionet. Ionet was yesterday, which we're doing something with as well. But Aether launched today. Obviously, Ionet did well yesterday as well. Aether, I think, launched a $4 billion FTV. But, you know, they are anomalies. We don't see that same demand we've seen in previous cycles. But why do you think there is that weakness relative to other cycles?

Yeah, I think ultimately, like, retail has gotten smart and they don't want to buy VC bags. I think there's that feeling that there's just so much infrastructure being built. I think retail starting to get a little a little bored and like, you know, like who's buying wormhole at $12 billion valuation, right? Like, like, I don't see additional buyers coming in. And so anything speculators sucked into meme coins instead? Yeah, I think it's I think I think the vision the view is

that it's more fair. Um, you know, because Oh, hey, like, stick it to the those big bad VCs. But ultimately, like, it's still insiders that better. Same game, just different facade. I mean, a lot of a lot of these assets are involved in the course as well as they were involved in me because same way we're involved in VC back projects as well like the game is the same we're in the middle of it but you know that kind of I wanted to go to Ryan if he's on this mic as well to ask him about kind of the performance of me going to the last couple days and that weakness we've

seen that correction and but it's a mountain around on you if you there but on like do you do you see that's money because i've asked this question a lot i like to different get different perspectives on it as do you see do you see that that kind of money cycling through between uh because in the last cycle we had nft hype and we had um obviously vc back projects doing well at the same time this time around obviously we're seeing meme course do extremely well vc back projects did well at the beginning of the year and then suddenly slowed drastically yeah i think the model of a of a low flow high fdv project um is is kind of is kind of realistically it's i think it's starting to run its course um you know we had friend tech launch which which they did 100% distribution, like no no lock tokens. And that launched, I believe, at like a

250 million value, or FDV. And now it's sitting at like 100 million. And it just got punished as well. So ultimately, it goes all the way back to what I originally said is where is the new dollars coming in and the crypto native dollars, there's not you know there's there's not mom and pops buying this from the thanksgiving you know a chat at the thanksgiving table it's pvp money cycling around mean coins seem more fair mean coins seem like hey i can get my quick 100x all this infrastructure is it you know is it real is? Is it not? It is kind of what retail is thinking. So,

so yeah, I'm, I think ultimately, like we're in it, like as a VC myself, you know, I, it's like watching all this infrastructure get built is great. But we are really, really searching for a consumer consumer application something that kind of breaks through that people are actually using on this stuff like it's not just siblings it's not just farmers it's not you know the next lrt platform that you're putting money into to get some tokens to dump like so that's that's worth spending a lot of time like you know like like we had like like um um a few different ones come through i think of like pumped up fun um came through which was pretty interesting but like now that's kind of like slowing down a lot um so yeah that's kind of it's been pretty fascinating let me go to not

sure friday there but uh because if you're not i'll just go back i back. I'm here, sir. I'm here, sir. So your thoughts. Thank you so much. Your thoughts on meme coins. I thought we saw a bit of a bloodbath in the last couple of days. I think we already discussed it. Maybe give us your thoughts again very briefly. And then your thoughts on alts in general and that slowdown VC-backed project, which, again, you've given us your take previously. And I know you cover it a lot on your show. Before we go back to kind of David and Paul about the efforts.

Let me start with the VC coins first. I think the market has to change. Why? Because the VCs are bidding up the projects before the projects hit the market. And then retail is picked up on this. And retail is kind of going, hold on a second,

why must I buy something at a $3 billion valuation? What's the upside for me? I've come into crypto to get rich. If things launch at a $3 and $4 billion valuation, that's the first time that I can get access to this. I don't want to play that game anymore. I'd rather go and buy worthless mean points and buy them at a $250,000 valuation and take my chances because that's how I'm going to make money in crypto. I think this model of VCs bidding up

rounds before they come to market has destroyed the entire dynamics of the market at the moment. And until we get rid of that model, I don't see any incentive for retail to come and buy. Retail ain't coming here to buy after VCs can't bid up a project any further. So until that mechanic changes, I think all these projects will launch high. I'm willing to take any bet that you want that in a month's time, Ether's trading at half of what it's trading at today because there's no one to buy the shit. But why do you think earlier this year, the market was very different?

We saw these same projects pump at launch. It seems that demand is there, but waiting for something, waiting for the right time. No, I think retail, I think at the time, retail thought maybe these things were going to go higher, but you fool them once, you fooling class you're full of three

times they ain't coming back i've got a spreadsheet i'm just on vacation i said in the spreadsheet with him but i have a spreadsheet that kind of shows the delve listing versus the the current price of all these high fdv low token float uh bid up vc projects and they've all gone down and down and down and down and down and down. So I'm willing to take any bet you want that Ether follows the same thing. And all of them, I'm not singling out one project. I actually think Ether is a very good project. But I'm just saying when you come onto the market at a $4 billion valuation,

there's nowhere else to go. Send me that spreadsheet, but then again, we can just look at our portfolio. We invest in projects. We're pretty still aggressive. I don't mean we discuss it a lot behind the scenes. I still believe that demand will be there. But even if they drop 50%, you can still do well. If we're expecting projects to launch at a 10, 15x, they launch at a 1.5 to 3x. That's still a good performance with such quick liquidity. That's not a good performance.

Unless you look- It's not a good performance unless unless you look exactly exactly that's where it gets tricky because then when the bear market hits it drops about 80 90 95 that's where it gets really tricky but then again if you don't have those same pumps then the same then the drops in the bear market will be a lot less as well so if you have a project pumping 100x when it launches then it won't drop 99 it might drop 60 percent which makes it um i'm not dropping like 70 i'll send you this question but they're not there 70 yeah i'll check it out um why someone messaging me emergency space what just happened uh okay that's nothing uh yeah so just go back actually something something related to you ryan someone from my team just sent me now uh ansum and and and tate are fighting something

about meme coins. They've been fighting since the morning. Ansem and Andrew Tate have been going at each other. I mean, it's crazy. It's like Andrew Tate, I think he's a kickboxing world champion, if I'm not mistaken. He challenged Ansem to a fight. Now, if you watch the last fight that Ansem fought in,

Ansem's anything but a fighter. I mean, the last fight was embarrassing, to a fight. Now, if you watch the last fight that Ansem fought in, Ansem's anything but a fighter. I mean, the last fight was embarrassing, to be honest. And now, Ansem's agreed to a fight with Andrew Tate in Dubai, but I think there's a technicality that Andrew Tate can't leave Romania. So, I don't think that fight's ever going to happen. Yeah, exactly. I'm just looking at it now. And then, you talk about meme coins as well.

We've seen him correct heavily. We'd have to get your thoughts on meme coin cycles. As I said the other day, meme coin fatigue. We've got meme coin fatigue. There are too many meme coins. There's too much going on. So we might be doing an urgent space. I'm checking with the team now.

It might be a space right after this one, covering the whole, like in a few minutes, covering the whole Andrew Tate, handsome drama that I've been keeping up with. But just going back, and we'll probably keeping up with. But just going back, and we'll probably invite them both, but just going back to the discussion, Ran, meme coin fatigue. So where does that money flow to next? NFTs are not moving.

No, I think it stays in meme coins, but I think there's so many meme coins that when there was 100 meme coins, the money was shared between 100 meme coins, but now there's probably 100,000 meme coins, even more. And so I think now you've got to be very, very, very selective

about where you put your money. And I think, unfortunately, the ones that are doing the best, the ones with the most influences in them. Because that's, actually, as I said the other day, it's not a game of memes,

it's a game of influence. Because they're not really memes, it's just influence. And what's your strategy, Ran? Do you see opportunities in listed tokens? Again, I know we discussed these many times,

but we discussed them to get different perspectives on them. So I kind of have a selfish question too, but doing OTC deals with listed tokens, is that something that interests you? Yeah, we do. We do a lot of OTC deals with tokens. Essentially, I'm using this time to invest in real quality stuff.

Stuff like, you know, like Arweave, store chain, those kind of things. Near protocol. I'm putting my money into quality and I'm relaxing I'm not chasing every little shiny object it's not the strategy in this market

I think I agree and building up we're doing something we're doing pretty much the same I think quality projects will always win

and in terms of it's just obviously pretty cheesy to say but following but you know it's true so quality projects will always win

that's number one and number two is you know, it's true. So quality projects will always win. That's number one. And number two is, you know, build out your product. If you, if you obviously were in a media, media, incubation marketing side of things. So we're kind of building out that business side as well. Kind of prepare. I don't know how the cycle will evolve, how things will be in a few months time. Look, we've discussed, let me just check with the team very briefly.

Meme coin people. All right, cool. We are doing urgent space in a few minutes on the whole Tate and Ansem thing. I know it's something that a lot of you don't like, but we'll wrap up the show. I think we've discussed the FOMC at Lentz. Sorry, the CPI there at Lentz.

There will be an urgent FOMC space shortly as well. So we're going to have an FOMC space and the whole Tate-Ansem drama kicking off. So we'll see you again tomorrow where I'll try to discuss the FOMC decision. It'll probably be unchanged. And then Scott will probably tell us, hey, guys, this doesn't matter.

Let's move on. So I'll see you all tomorrow. David and Arthur would love to see you tomorrow as well to join the discussion. I'm sorry we had to cut this one short. Really appreciate it, everyone. Thank you so much.