The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Bull Market Trends w/ Ryan Selkis | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: February 15, 2024

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Looks like we have the whole VanEck team today, huh? Matthew, Gabor, haven't had you here in a while, man. How are you? Oh, good, good. Party's on. That's an understatement of the century at the moment. Yeah, things have been going quite well. I would imagine even maybe exceeding some of your expectations. Yeah, definitely. I mean, it's kind of crazy but uh let's see it's just the start first month yeah i love that it aligned with the title why are you not bullish enough on bitcoin

we're really going for the clicks here right mario no that's the lame title no who came up that title should be like an all-time high so so ran so today was all about will we get an all-time high before the halving so maybe 80 all-time high before the halving? So maybe 80 all-time high before the halving. That's click-baity enough. There you go. I haven't actually looked, but I don't know the exact number. But I know that we're relatively close, within like 20% of the highest weekly close we ever had. Obviously, we had the wicks up to the all-time highs, but the candle closes.

We're not much higher than where we are today, maybe lows we're getting pretty close pretty well do you think do you think we can get an all-time high before the halving i wouldn't say we can't uh i personally don't expect it because the the i'm just looking at the numbers now the etfs um 14 second trays of inflows what's the number oh it's a bit lower today 4 340 million because the gray scale outflows picked up one 31. I think yesterday was a really good day. Yesterday was like 650 million. If I got my numbers right,

I'm just going to go back and check. So yesterday was 630 million of inflows. Today's about just under just over half. So extremely good, but no, but it's extremely good. Yeah. I don't see any bots there yeah yeah there's also it's i think it's exceeding most people's expectations and you know uh yeah

let me give you just a number now everyone misses your voice you've been away for a few days so i'll i'll just shut up for a while but so there's a tweet here i'm not sure who it's by uh but ryan was talking about it as well. Independent advisors control $8 trillion in assets. Survey shows 77% of them, I don't know whose survey, 77% of them want to add Bitcoin to their portfolio, which is a pretty high number. But let's go with that, 77% of independent advisors. And they want to add an average of 2% to 3% allocation.

So if you do the maths, then you're going to be seeing a total of $150 billion of inflows. I think we're at $5 billion right now. So going by those numbers, we're extremely early. I call bullshit on those numbers. I think that that narrative is correct. I call bullshit on those numbers. But maybe he can tell me exactly where they come from. I don't know how 77% of RIA i do not believe or interested in adding two to three

percent i don't buy that independent rias got independent rio so not not the big brokers and wire houses okay these are folks that really have the discretion and i just want to give some context around that two percent allocation because two percent is meta's weight in the S&P 500. And Meta stock had a bigger peak to trough drawdown in 21, 22 than Bitcoin. So that argument, you know, starting to resonate with an increasing number of people who see digital assets as a hedge on FANG domination. So I don't think his numbers are completely out of whack. Yeah, I don't think that's out of whack with the independent context. Sorry, I just heard RIAs in 77% and 2% to 3%.

So that seems excessive. I spoke about this a little bit on my show today. I said, like, it feels weird because here we are at like 52,000 or whatever the number is. Before the halving, we're starting to get this race before the halving the only thing is that retail is not here like we know this scott because we do like youtube videos and i think youtube videos are the best indicator of whether or not retail is is in the market and that retail is nowhere near here i used to get uh in the peak of the last blue market i

used to get 15 to 20 000000 people live during the show. And now we're still at between, I don't know, 5,000 and 10,000 live during the show. We're not even halfway to where we were. You were triple that in advance of the ETF, right? It was massive. Yeah, so I'm saying

the retail investor certainly isn't here yet, right? But then the institutional investor also isn't here yet. So this is the part that's kind of baffling. Well, not baffling, but kind of like it makes perfect sense, but I just don't think we can fathom it or we understand it. Retail is not yet in crypto, and institutions are also not here in crypto yet. They've only had one month to be getting themselves into Bitcoin. So then what happens when they do arrive?

Yeah, I think up only is the answer. It's interesting. I'm looking now, Bitcoin ETF total stats, total market cap 37 billion of all the ETFs, what I'm seeing. Obviously, right before the launch, I think GBTC was between 25 and 27. Some of this is a function of price rising. But still, you're effectively 10 billion up on market cap from when these launched in total from what GBTC had. And GBTC itself is also now back up to $24.22 billion. I mean, this is a rousing success. You have BlackRock at $5.7 billion now. They even crossed $6 billion. Remember BlackRock, the number go up because the number of Bitcoins going up. So the reason why GBTC is up is because the price of Bitcoin. Price. Yeah, that's what I said. It's not more Bitcoin.

It's a function of price also rising. Correct. But I do think we should talk about what's going on in the title. And that is the all time high before the halving. Because I'm seeing a lot of it on Twitter, but then I'm also seeing like a lot of like other things on Twitter, which are saying that there's like the cycle. I mean, you probably know this better than I do the golden break of the,

the six one eight. And if it happens from that point, I read a tweet where it says from that point, the all time high usually happens 10 to 13 months after that. And so a lot of people are calling for a much more aggressive, much quicker cycle this time around. I don't know if that makes sense. I mean, it makes sense.

It's so hard, I think, to make those predictions. What he's talking about there, by the way, guys, is the drawdown from 69,000 to the lows at 15,460. The golden pocket is the 61.8% Fib retracement up to roughly a 65% retracement. That's 48,500 up to about 50,260. And usually at some point in the cycle before the halving, you see price retrace all the way back up to that level. That was like the $13,000, $14,000 level in the last cycle before dropping way back down. Well, now we're breaking through that, obviously, above that $50,000, $261,000 level. So it's kind of giving me this time it's different vibes. How that's different, though, I think is relatively hard to predict, Rand.

Yeah, let me chime in here, too. You know, I think every single cycle, I think this time is different, because there's a different structural things that are, you know, that I believe make it a different cycle than previous cycles. And every single time, it's the same cycle. So, you know, I do agree that there are vastly different things with this cycle, you know, the ETF flows are huge. So you know, we're talking 10s of trillions of dollars of capital locked up in these brokerages that before were never going to consider wiring money to Coinbase or Kraken, buying Bitcoin. And maybe even managing the private key would be a pretty remote possibility. But the whole process, the friction of just buying it with their existing bank account was pretty difficult versus a one-click. I sold S&P 500 in my retirement account and I bought Bitcoin. And also the I think

what's really cool about the Bitcoin ETFs is it solves the unit bias problem. The unit bias problem for those who don't know what this is, is people feel like Bitcoin is too expensive because each Bitcoin is worth, you know, fifty two thousand dollars. When in reality, you know, if you look at the Bitcoin price times the market price, the number of coins or the supply, that's your market cap. They should be quoting market cap. But that leads to a bias where retail feels like Bitcoin is too expensive. So they buy coins that are denominated in smaller values or there's more decimals or there's more digits to the left of the decimal. So the Bitcoin ETFs can, you know, when you buy one share, that's not one Bitcoin.

It's like a part of a Bitcoin. So I think that's a huge, huge win. You know, so again, like I said before, every time I think this time is different. This one does have an extremely huge pipe of liquidity that has been plugged into Bitcoin that we've never had before. So it is different structurally. Structurally different. It's funny, though. I've been seeing people make the argument that we

can never see it listen it reminds me of we used to obviously dan i think you may have coined super cycle in the last one but uh you know we've had the conversation over and over again about this time it's different and we'll never see those 75 to 80 percent fee traces again people telling me that because of the etfs you can never have that that again. As if like, if price goes down and people start panic selling, they can't also sell the ETF. So I just don't really understand the notion already sitting here at 52,000 that people are saying we can never have another sizable drop. There's just a million reasons that we can't. Gabor, I see you're giving me the 100. You are at VanEck, obviously, and you clearly agree right yeah and then i can advise from the strategy side for ted

and so the uh i agree with you etfs can also sell holdings again i think we can see outflows um there's i think it's just a bullshit narrative we can't see outflows from etfs i don't believe that uh the yeah um one of the things that I'm looking at specifically is we have seen some estate sales that got absorbed into Bitcoin ETFs. There's some estate sales that are publicly known that's coming up, particularly around Genesis and DCG. So I think that may have some potential impact on the price, although that is, as some of you guys know on the call, a lot more Bitcoin is getting absorbed by the day. So I think we have some downside sort of like management because ETS are absorbing some capital from those estate sales. But I

specifically look at those as a potential trigger for the downside. I also think that Bitcoin has been pretty reactive to macro. And again, if the macro environment changes, Bitcoin can go down. And I don't think that Bitcoin just has established itself yet as a full kind of store of value. And again, you guys might have different opinions on this, but it has not established itself as a full hedge in store value just yet as gold. So, you know, I'm more bearish on that. And sometimes if there's a technology correction, which I think NVIDIA and some of the tech sectors

just has gotten ahead of itself. And I think Bitcoin has a little bit of a potential to correct with it. And it doesn't matter whether there are ETFs or not. So just bear that in mind. Yeah, you just mentioned something. I think it was one of the bigger news stories.

So it's worth mentioning that Genesis effectively has been cleared to sell 1.3 billion in GBTC shares. We saw FTX obviously sell about a billion right at the beginning. To me, this is effectively a nothing burger with the inflows that we're seeing. 1.3 billion amounts to one and a half to two days of the early GBTC selling that we saw on the market, right, which was a very temporary sort of headwind. So as much as I think it's a news story, Matthew, I see you lifted your mic. As much as I think it's a news story, I think that would be an extremely temporary headwind. Yeah, I just want to add to that. The proposed Chapter 11 settlement requires Genesis to repay creditors in kind. So, you know, that may stop some of the fears of like imminent selling,

right? But I think the big story, my roadmap is still that we don't see all time highs until after the halving and maybe around the election. But the most notable thing in the market, from my perspective, is that the correlations between Bitcoin and other risk assets have dropped significantly. So Bitcoin is giving these new buyers, ETF buyers, the jolt to performance that they were hoping for in a way that is additive to investor risk profiles because it adds diversification. I also just wanted to highlight Bitcoin and ETH dominance have been rising, but there are certain pockets of digital asset ecosystem here that are acting

very, very well. So just wanted like highlight a deep dive that we just published on the intersection of of crypto and ai it's on my pinned tweets and we're theorizing that blockchains provide foundational elements that artificial intelligence needs like transparency immutability clearly defined ownership, an adversarial testing environment. And, you know, the internet has forever enabled these open source communities to thrive by bringing together hobbyists, enthusiasts who are uniquely motivated to improve things. And those open source environments have already shattered traditional business models like Wikipedia and mainstream news. So why won't the same phenomenon

occur in the AI market, especially with recent cryptographic innovations like ZK proofs? We've published this extremely deep dive on how open source blockchains are uniquely positioned to capture value from this trend. This may be offensive to the Bitcoin maxis, but there is significant innovation going on across the space. I still think Bitcoin is the tail that wags this whole dog. But if the dominance from these large caps keeps rising, there will be on the other side the ferocious altcoin rally as well. Just pointing out that reality. And my assumption on the all time high, by the way, aligns perfectly with yours based on previous cycles., previous cycles. But Ryan, I want to go to you. Maybe we'll have to change the title now, Mario. I don't know. But I want to pivot because Matthew just really gave a nice segue into the other things outside of Bitcoin and Bitcoin spot ETFs that are probably worth discussing. Obviously, you write your thesis every year. We've all read it. But I mean, do you align with what Matthew's saying in regard to AI and crypto and what other narratives potentially are you watching now as the spot ETF hype?

I won't say necessarily cools down because the inflows are massive, but the news. Sure. Yeah, I think the themes from the thesis haven't really changed. I think decentralized social, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, particularly those that are at the intersection of crypto and AI, are probably, you know, two of the biggest, two and a half of the biggest trends for the year. When it comes to enterprise or institutional adoption, I do think it's going to be mostly Bitcoin and then maybe partially Ethereum. And we're more or less in a holding pattern for at least another 12 months, at least in the US, and possibly in Europe too, with respect as our policymakers get younger, I don't even want to say smarter, I think we just need generation change at this point. But as they get younger, and we're tech, technically proficient, and at least their staff get more tech savvy. We're going to see, I think, more of this narrative that, you know, crypto is a solution and kind of a counterweight and a necessary yin to AI's yang if we're talking about sources of truth and kind of reliable truth. So that's, you know, I think our team is pretty bullish on that.

There's not that many projects that have crypto tokens that are in that sector. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some things get wildly overheated and overhyped and just become kind of almost like meme coins in their own right. I'm not going to name names, but I think that narrative will divorce from reality a little bit with some of these AI related crypto tokens that doesn't change the general trend. And we've seen that every single cycle so far. Well, let me ask you a question because that aligns with something I've been saying a lot. It feels like the AI crypto intersection is definitely happening, but early.

RWA feels like happening, but early. D-PIN happening, but early. Are these going to be the narratives that we sort of see have their DeFi summer or NFT summer moment this cycle, but that really are far more compelling three or four years down the road as we see where they can actually go just feels like these are the early narratives. And this will be the first cycle where they'll kind of wash through as you described. Yeah, also, I mean, just just so going back to Ryan's

point before you answer the question, in terms of crypto and AI, and I must say I'm very, very, very bullish on the sector, but are there any projects today that have got any kind of ability to be used properly yet? And I'm not asking this facetiously. I'm asking this because I'm genuinely trying to find a use case for crypto and AI. There 100 percent are. I encourage you to go through our report where we have a table with KPIs for

some of those larger projects and disclose some of our ownership interests. But you know, just as Red Hat was born to facilitate the maintenance of the open source Linux kernel. So there are a number of players that are fostering the building of open source LLMs to compete with the Big Fang offerings. And in our model, we assume only that these blockchain-produced AI models will capture 5% of AI software revenues that would still correspond to a $6 billion market.

So, the answer is yes to your question. So, I mean, I think I looked at the report. I mean, I actually even mentioned the report today on my show. I didn't have a very big report. But, I mean, just interested maybe if we can talk about some at the report. I actually even mentioned the report today on my show. I didn't have a very big report. But, I mean, just interested maybe if we can talk about some of the projects, one or two, just so I can get a feel for it. Yeah. I mean, the one that we highlight, I guess there's two that we highlight in detail. One is BitTensor, which we think has the potential to be the biggest player in soliciting open source LLM models. And then the other is a private company called

Together Compute, which is a decentralized cloud platform for open-source AI models. They've signed really interesting agreements with university labs who are more inclined to want to build on customizable open-source LLMs rather than using an off-the-shelf offering from Microsoft. And together just raised their Series A. It was a 10x from the seed round. The performance of their open source LLM is highly competitive with centralized offerings. And so they could be that red hat in the space if this evolves as we see. Another, which I think has been well discussed on your channels, is Render, another decentralized GPU network, which is more suited for image rendering, less so for actually building large language models,

but they do have an offering in the space, which is widely used. And I felt one of the interesting things about Render is that there are third parties who are using the Render network to offer service level to clients like movie studios. And that to us speaks to a vibrant B2B community, which crypto has not typically been associated with. But when you introduce AI, it is better suited for.

Yeah. Just want to circle back because I do want to hear Ryan's opinion on what I mentioned before, if this is a this cycle thing or if we're really just seeing the first iterations of these. I think AI is so hot right now that people are going to try to use anything, whether it's centralized or decentralized. So my point about the reality being behind the narrative. That's probably true in general across AI right now, just given the demand and where it is in a type cycle.

But I think it's probably especially true within crypto since there's only a handful of projects that are truly like AI centered. I think that's going to change. I think you'll see more projects kind of lean into that's going to change. I think you'll see more projects kind of lean into that AI narrative this year. And then it'll be up to the individual investor to parse fact versus fiction and what's actually going to move the needle. I think there's a couple of promising

projects like TAL, which our team has written about quite a bit. Akash Network, you know, some of these other deep and adjacent, you know, kind of now that are totally obvious and kind of fundamentally driven right now versus people just kind of develop memes around these assets and are putting them all in the basket of this is going to catch fire just because AI is hot. And the intersection of the two is going to be the most liquid way to play this unless you're just buying NVIDIA stock at $2 trillion. Yeah, this reeks of Long Island blockchain iced tea to me. I just remember in the previous, you know, when you just kind of jump on the hot narrative and put it in your name and say, we're now an AI project. I remember those pivots in the last cycle when DeFi got hot. And all of a sudden, every single layer one, you get the founder hitting you up on Telegram like, oh, here's our new DeFi platform. Here's our new NFT platform. Oh, we're metaverse now. I feel like we're just going to see everybody pivoting to finding a way to convince us that

they're an AI project. Totally agree. And one quick thing, I figured I'd break it here. I'm not doing any other podcasts today, but we just launched a new product at Masari, basically a new customizable home screen that is three product layers baked into one. So I think people are going to like it if they want to head on over and check it out. Essentially, the work of the last 18 months from our team. That's amazing. Do you have a tweet on it we can pin? I'll happily pin it above if you'd like. Yeah, I'll go check it out. I just announced it at 1030.

And so we're going to be walking people through all the features, but it's pretty loaded. And I am otherwise going to be all over Twitter, but not doing any pods or interviews today. So heard it here first. I just pinned it above. Is that the right tweet? The launch day tweet? I just pinned it above so people can go check that out.

But there you go from your tweet. Perfect. Always a pleasure, guys. Yeah. Thank you, man. Along those lines, I mean, do anyone else feel free to jump in? I do have this fear that a lot of these narratives are going to, we're just going to be exceptionally early.

I mean, Rand, does that align with what you're thinking? I just can't imagine that we see some huge viable AI project emerge in the next year while this cycle is hot. So, I started reading the report. I haven't finished the VanEck report. I've been doing a lot of digging into the AI narrative. And I am bullish. I mean, I'm a holder of Renda.

I'm very much a holder of BitTenzer. I've been holding BitTenzer since under $100. Sorry, just over $100, actually. And many, many, many other crypto projects. And the reality is when I look at the projects, I don't think we'll see any results from any of these projects to do with anything to do with AI in the cycle. I'm going to be like, yes, they're building.

And yes, the BitTensor structure of building the LLMs with the individual chains is very, very, very interesting. And I've seen some of the use cases, but I don't know if any of these AI crypto plays are going to have any kind of result in Cycle. And if they, I mean, maybe let me define Cycle. If we're talking about Cycle as the next 400, 500 days, I don't know how many of these projects are going to get real-world adoption or even crypto-world adoption

other than buying for price or if any of them do some kind of airdrop or whatever else, some kind of airdrop. Just seeing where the technology is and knowing what is required to get people to use technology, all of them are a long way away. And even Render, which is, by the way,

a token that I've been holding since the previous cycle and still holding and haven't sold a single token. But I don't see any way in hell that Render does anything to do with AI in this cycle. Like, I don't see it rendering models. I don't see the use case of real companies using the marketplace to use GPUs to render. I don't see the use case of real companies using the marketplace to use GPUs to render. I don't see any of that happening in this cycle. I may be wrong. And to be honest,

if I was wrong, it would be the best scenario for me because I'm invested in all of these projects. And that would mean that things are happening much quicker than than we thought but i just don't see it happening um i just don't see it happening this cycle i've got to be honest guys like i don't want to i don't want to be the one to put the wet blanket on the fire but i just don't see it happening in this cycle and yet you still own your and so yet you still own your tokens because you know fundamental run uh people are looking at what's going to be happening next cycle. But like on the topic of render, and someone just replied to the tweet here, like they have a new proposal that allows for the network to support foundational training runs. They have a new compute client that is aiming to be the inference solution for AI in blockchain. So, I mean,

there are things happening and you can look at the activity. It's small, but it's there. I agree with you. And I mean, just to answer your question, when I invest in these projects, I invest for multiple cycles. I mean, as I mentioned to you, I've been holding Render since 57 cents in the last cycle, not this cycle. So, for me, I'm not the type of investor investing for number go up, sell on top of cycle. I've actually taken some fundamental bets on protocols that I think are really going to change the world. This is why I took a bet on BitTenz or now earlier.

To be honest, I'm not really someone who's going to be trying to time this cycle to get out in those kinds of tokens. So my expectations aren't. And the next part of it is to say that even if this thing is passed with Render, by the time it gets implemented and then actually gets used by real companies

to make a real difference, I don't see it happening in the cycle. I wish it does, but I just think it might not. By the way, I don't think that's a negative thing, like what we're saying. I think it's just reality with how long it takes to build something and garner any sort of adoption. Right. I mean, that's just my opinion. I'm just curious which ones from previous cycles.

Now, if we had the DeFi summers of previous cycles, NetFTs, which part of those are going to really gain actual adoption in this cycle? Since we're already getting excited about things that probably won't hit until next cycle maybe it's a good time then to pivot to what's being built on bitcoin since we have ryan here as well i'm sure you're pretty deep in that dan um all of this building on bitcoin is that a this cycle narrative or is this the first iteration for future cycles dan you can go ahead and ryan i'd love to hear your opinion on that all right then i don't know if dan heard but ryan what do you think of all the building on bitcoin that's happening right now i think it's long overdue um

and you know i think things like um you know, ordinals and just stacks, a couple of others. We're kind of all alone for a while building on Bitcoin. But I think last year was the spark. And this year, you'll see a lot of follow through, partly because the Bitcoin blockchain is perceived as safer when it comes to, you know, kind of mainstream adoption in some cases. More importantly, it's just under leveraged. When you think about being able to capitalize on Bitcoin's network security and the uniqueness that it has being secured as a proof of work network. I think the Bitcoin L2s and some of the development on Bitcoin, it's mostly going to be just bridging to other networks. I don't know that there's novel things that you'll be able to do on a Bitcoin L2 that you can't do on Optimism or Arbitrum or

Solana necessarily, but you're essentially just trying to leverage the liquidity and the security that's in that ecosystem. And so I think that it's just an underdeveloped area that's just at its very, very beginning of not just a hype cycle, but just, you know, adoption in general and seeing more teams build there. So I think last year was the spark, this year's the follow through. And then, you know, like everything else, I expect this year to get pretty toppy and euphoric on that typical four year hype cycle schedule. Yeah, the amount of new projects I'm seeing pitched metaverse on Bitcoin, NFT, you know, all of them, there's hundreds of them. But you know, all of them, there's hundreds of them. Yeah, I mean, I think that's a good thing. I mean, that's what we see anytime, you know, you have to have 100 try and fail to see one or two succeed. But that is a huge hype cycle right now. Go ahead, Dan. Sorry, I caught you before.

Yeah, I've been talking about DeFi on top of Bitcoin for over three years now, where, you know, I've been working with, for example, Taproot Wizards, Trust Machines, which is Muneeb and Muneeb's company, it's sort of like a consensus for example, Taproot Wizards, Trust Machines, which is Muneeb and Muneeb's company. It's sort of like a consensus for Bitcoin, like building on top of all Bitcoin layers that existed, you know, over the last couple of years. And I've never seen, you know, we all thought that building on Bitcoin made sense. If you want to build a DApp, like look, Bitcoin doesn't have a lot of functionality that you need. And not nearly as expressive or useful as Ethereum and Solana in terms of smart contracts and what you can do on it,

but it is the biggest app store that you could go build on because of the number of users, potential users. You've got a trillion dollars locked up in Bitcoin, which is larger than everything else combined. If there's some way to utilize those assets to be used in DeFi, this would be a huge, massive change in the crypto ecosystem. Ordinals moved the Overton window. I think a lot of people were pretty shocked with Ordinals

and what you could do with Bitcoin. NFT volume for Bitcoin is sometimes higher than Ethereum, which is pretty wild considering there's very few ways to interact with Bitcoin NFTs. There's only three wallets that are predominant wallets out there. The user experience is still a little clunky, but that's where the alpha is. If you're there when the user experience is clunky, then when they make it nice and smooth and polished and BRC20s are traded on Kraken and Coinbase, then you've missed out on

some of that alpha. So there's a ton of things going on right now in the Bitcoin ecosystem.