The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Comeback! Are We In For A Massive Bitcoin Pump? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: November 11, 2024

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1  James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish  Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #macromonday  The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin is making new all-time high after new all-time high, and this time altcoins are finally along for the ride. I think it's fair to say, as Dave would like to point out, that it was not priced in, at least not immediately after the election. I cannot wait to dig into what is happening with Bitcoin and markets with the three legends, Dave, Mike, and James. This proves to be the best Macro Monday ever. Let's go. consistent all-time highs here in Bitcoin. Going to bring on the team right now, we've got James, Dave, and Mike. Dave's background, obviously a little bit of a troll. Where's the beef? One of Mike's favorites. I would argue here at 82,000, here's the beef, right? Obviously, Bitcoin broke all- time high on substantial volume and seems to keep

going. Markets obviously loving the election, I would argue. Also, it was just time in the cycle, Dave. But is this the beef we're talking about? Is this the beef we were looking for? We're just getting started, Scott. I mean, the rumors were, and you remember the words that I've used, so I'm going to chirp a little bit today. I'm sorry for everybody. But basically, the rumors were out of Asia that there's one large buyer, and that buyer couldn't find any Bitcoin to buy. And that's why the price is here. We're going to see whether it happens or not. the talk of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve. Dennis Porter, who, for those who don't know, has been unbelievably important in the Bitcoin lobbying efforts

at the state level in particular, talks about three states adopting Bitcoin into their treasury and more to come. We haven't seen anything on the corporate treasury side yet. So there's a lot. This is classic game theory. It really is. I mean, we all think that if Bitcoin becomes recognized as a reserve asset to be the digital version of gold, that the price is 15 times these levels. We blithely toss that out

as if that has no meaning. We kind of were used to it. And then we come back to, well, but in the four-year cycle, the most we're going to get to is maybe a fifth of that. Well, maybe. And I talked about what will be euphoria. If you look at the Bitcoin network, you very easily the last cycle, I've said it many times, that would be that would place euphoria somewhere around two hundred and forty thousand, which when you have cycles, you do end up with the euphoria part of the cycle. Now, it's not a straight line. And traders who think it is a straight line, if you lever yourself, you could be extremely unhappy at some point, get washed out of your position. But the facts are that a euphoric Bitcoin price would be over triple where we are today.

That's euphoric. And that doesn't take into account it becoming or being recognized as a global strategic reserve. So, no, this is the beginning, in my opinion. This is exactly what I was saying would happen. And we're only in November. I think that this is if our cycle theory holds, which seems to be lining up in some really incredible karmic event with everything. I think that we have a bull market that lasts somewhere into next year and we end up in euphoria and we're not in euphoria now. And we'll talk about the data, but I'll let other people talk. But to me, Bitcoin rising this much while gold, I mean, gold is still going to do very well in this cycle. Unless you really believe that Elon can somehow magically cut all the other parts of the budget that are not government spending and trigger a tsunami of growth, then you have to be long gold here also.

But, you know, let's look at the last week. Bitcoin has erased all the underperformance of gold and then some since Mike and I made our bet. And we're not even close to March yet. It's not all yet, to be fair. I do have that chart. So it's basically, I mean, if you're looking at the ratio, it was- That's a massive candle. Well, that's only-

Yeah, 34 was the top of the Bitcoin gold ratio in this move, which was March, right around when you guys made the bet. I think 20 was the bottom. It's back to 31. So I mean, yeah, you're three off. I mean, it's a big breakout. We're moving in the direction that I would expect. Now, I actually expect gold to be higher in March than it is now, but that's whatever it is. But when you look at the correlations to

markets, everything went up in the beginning part of the rally. And that's true. But remember, everything else other than gold is tethered to earnings potential. Bitcoin is tethered to what people think it's going to be. And the more people believe it's a reservable asset, that valuation goes up. Now we're going to talk about altcoins later. I don't want to go on a monologue here, so we'll stop. But I do think there's a big difference in the case there. Yeah, before we move on slightly, I do want to show you two rumors that came out that sort of led into what you're saying about nation state adoption or the other side of the world. We've got breaking news, big oil money to enter Bitcoin. 90-year-old Saudi Arabian Salafi cleric writes a fatwa deeming Bitcoin acceptable under Islam. That's one of them. So people pointing to maybe Saudi Arabia. And then from Max Keiser, and we've been hearing this for a long time, Qatar, Qatar, Qatar, whoever, whatever bad American pronunciation you would like. It was Qatar during the World Cup here.

Apparently looking to buy a half a trillion in Bitcoin and maybe already doing it. So, I mean, you know, hard to vet these things, James, but certainly looks like something's happening. Take a look, by the way. Also, there's an article here somewhere. I'll find it. But basically, the bid on Coinbase has been absolutely astounding, meaning that Americans are leading this rally with spot. Yeah, it's interesting that I saw a couple of posts on Friday. Sorry. I just want to respond to that because I'm staring at CoinWatch right now.

And the one thing we see is the bid is, I mean, Kraken and Bitstamp are right along with it. It's the USD bid is higher than the USDT bid. And if you look at USDT, USD, the reason for that is people are buying USDT in order. And every time USDT is above par, it's one point. It's six basis points above. And so whenever people say that it's spot buying because it's it because of this they're they're wrong and i just want to be clear let me share my screen for a real quick no it's this that's a good point it's a really important point dave okay so so this is this is a coin rest screen can everyone see it now okay so it's probably hard to read let me let me zoom in a bit on this hold on um do zoom zoom zoom zoom and i can zoom around the screen that's probably making it easier okay just keep going okay cool

so you see bitcoin usd here is 82 177 and versus 82085 if you do do the math, you're going to see it's because USDT, which is where my cursor is wagging around, is 6.4 basis points above USD. Now, the reasons for that generally are when people are trying to pile into altcoins, but it doesn't matter, or Bitcoin. It doesn't matter. They're trying to pile into crypto, and that's when USDT gets a premium. But when it does, the USD price is higher than the USDdt price now if you look down here i'm waggling my cursor you'll notice kraken bitstamp and coinbase we still call it gdacs because worlds or og here are coin routes right so you can see the bids on all of those three exchanges which are the only three i have in this particular group are all in line with each other

so it's not coin based bid it's dollar based bitcoin being above that doesn't mean that there isn't spot buying because generally when the usdt is at that kind of a premium it is spot buying but let's at least get it straight and a lot of people out there who make that statement are just wrong you know they just they just haven't looked at this market microstructure so okay uh professor rant over james you can continue yeah i mean well the the interesting thing here is that we get into price discovery mode over the weekend right i mean we kind of entered it last week uh after the after trump clearly won the election and uh positive crypto positive bitcoin um policies are likely to come out of this administration. Well, far more positive than they were in the current administration.

The current administration was absolutely abysmal for this industry. So removing those barriers and that anchor off the neck of Bitcoin is clearly important. Now, people will say, well, you're in price discovery mode, so we can just go, we could just jump over 100,000 and go on to euphoric new highs like Dave was kind of highlighting earlier. But the reality is now you're going to get into areas where you have mental levels. You've got that $80,000 level that it broke through over the weekend on, on light volume, but, um, you know, heavy enough that it's not interestingly enough, you would think that that volume would have been even less this weekend, but it was, it was, uh, it was substantial enough, um, to, you know, to make this move. So, um, but the question is what are the, what are

those mental levels? And, uh, you'll see, I, I expect to? And I expect to see some trade shenanigans going on about just trying to wipe out shorts and push it to certain levels. And then it'll pull back. I do expect some volatility in here. I don't expect it to just do that $100,000 God candle, you know, kind of move. That's not what I expect. I do expect it to continue to be volatile, but it's going to be volatile to the upside ultimately, in my opinion. And we'll bump into the 90s and then retrace back. And, you know, I think it's going to struggle to get through 100,000 for at least one or two tries,

but we'll see. I could be wrong because Bitcoin- Look, at every technical level, Bitcoin has struggled. It's been like two, three, maybe sometimes even four times. So it depends- James' point, though, there's no more technical levels. There's just psychological levels. It's all psychological now.

Oh, absolutely. It's not like there's old people. It's not like you'd look at it and say, well, fundamentally, it should be closer to three quarters the price of the total market value of gold. There's no fundamental value for you to attach to it other than it should be a larger share of the total global assets in the world. That's it. That's the only thing you can attach to it. Yeah. Okay.

So we got the crypto fear and greed index. Obviously, we're moving into extreme greed. We can stay here for a very long time. But I wanted to use that as a segue into Mike because a lot of things we're hearing, we're starting to get the euphoric sentiment of never down. We're starting to hear those things. It can only go up under Trump, obviously. I'll let Mike speak to it. But has anything changed for you, Mike,

now that we're at all-time highs and in price discovery? Well, absolutely. The world changed last week. And hats off to Dave, James, and particularly you, Scott, because you nailed this. You nailed this six months ago and then said, oh, by October, November, it's going to break up new highs. And James and you did too, Dave. But Scott, you were a little more specific about it. So hats off. Great calls. Facts have changed.

And Bitcoin is jumping on board as being the fastest horse in the race. The point is its 60-day correlation is the highest ever on the way up to the stock market. Stock market is making record highs. Bitcoin is. And I love the beef coming. Dave. I mean, spot on. The problem is it still hasn't done what people told me it's supposed to do, and that is go up when stocks go down. So it's still bull market, get it. Everything's up. Everything should be up. The problem is, but you mentioned, we all mentioned it's the human nature now. Everybody's looking for the last big trade and mostly stock market. Now,

I just got off my call this morning with our, everybody says the same thing now I'm handing about. It's a consensus I'm worried about. Trump will not be as extreme as he said he was in the campaign. And I think it's going to be the opposite based on the macro. So first, let's point out right now we have, Trump was elected in 2016 for about two years, S&P 500 was right at its 100 week moving average and hovering there. Good indication. Now it's 26 percent above that level. So that's great. But it's very stretched. And everybody says it's going to go higher. But we all know that was the last trade. What's the next trade? How much of that was COVID, Mike? Just curious how much of that was COVID. No, that was 2016. I'm sorry. I meant the 2016 election. I'll point that election before his first election.

Part of it also was split Congress and uncertainty of what Trump's policies were going to be. We have a little bit more visibility because he was in power for four years. So we have a little bit more visibility and expectation, which is probably why. I'm talking about 2016. Yeah. Okay. So let me – I had some key points one thing i want to mention is one key book i got mostly done with this weekend is um no trade is free by robert lighthizer he will be the next

trained representative he was the last trade representative under trump he's pointed out these trade issues for decades trump's pointed on books he wrote decades ago and now that we have a complete almost red sweep the house I think is very close, but we're going to have a Trump administration that's completely emboldened. And then we have to be thinking legacy. He knows when, as far as the old rules of the United States, he can't run for another term. But he's going to be thinking legacy. And my point is, just reading through this book, expect those tariffs to be as extreme and as strong as he points out they should be. And this is something I thought I mentioned. I used to say in the trading pits 30 years ago is, it's all great.

Everybody in the world wants to have free trade as long as they can have a trade surplus in the US. But the system's set up, there's no way you can have the US to have reciprocal trade. When we have the largest demand pool economy in the world, the most free market, tariffs have to be higher in other countries sending into our country because it's so much easier. So the macro big picture I'll point out is from a commodity standpoint, this is nothing but pretty severely deflationary because number one, there was a pre-existing trends. Crude oil is already heading lower. Copper had probably just peaked. All the grains are heading lower. Now we're going to be heading towards pretty significant, probably the

most significant, potentially in history, global trade tensions, similar to 1930s. The difference was we were in a depression then. Here we're not. The rest of the world is completely – let me finish. The rest of the world – okay, well, the rest of the world has a big problem. For instance, Estelle Oyen pointed out the main issue might be with Europe, because Europe's been taking advantage of the US, not just China. Robert Lighthizer's book points completely on China. So I'll end with what I think are going to be the key issues. From commodities, don't expect anything

but deflation. So the key levels I've been watching is Brent has not been able to get above $80 a barrel. It's probably going to head towards $60. Copper has been unable to get above $10,000 a ton. It's probably going to head towards 7,000. These are normal things that happen. The key thing is gold probably will still have a bit of correction towards 2,500. Remember, we're heading towards a potential period of a little bit of, we've had major, you know, tensions, but if Trump helps solve some of these issues, we have a little bit of lightning of geopolitical tensions. That's a pressure factor for gold. Now, Dave, we all agree, I'm still bullish gold, but it was way overdue for a bit of a backup to 2,500. Bitcoin had that backup and it proved it was right. So to me, this is the key

thing to watch. The market's going to take, oh, and I'll end with what our economist said. They don't think that's going to be a big difference until 2025 and 2026 from Trump's policies on the equity market, yet the market's priced for perfection now. So there's going to be a big difference until 2025 and 2026 from Trump's policies on the equity market. Yet the market's priced for perfection now. So there's going to be some big opportunities here. The key thing is Bitcoin's leading the animal spirits and equities. And, you know, of course, there's going to be no issues there. But if you really believe in a deflationary event in the near term, Mike. How do we explain what's going on in the 10-year? Hang on.

Let me finish. I'm pointing out commodities, I said, are clearly deflationary. So what's happening in the 10-year? Let's point out what's happening in the 10-year. Right now, at 4.30, that's 220 basis points above China at 2.09. You take the top five other countries in the world, they're all heading lower. We explained it completely by our GDP is running around 3% because of 7% deficits. The thing is, things are tilting lower.

The Fed is easing for a reason because they're restrictive. They're seeing unemployment going up. We all pointed out it's probably going to go to 6%. Our economics team expect the Fed to cut another 100 basis point next week. But that's the point is, this is the thing I've watched for decades. I get it. Hand-in-out yields have been going up. The thing is, our IRA Jersey thinks that peak in yields might have happened from the Trump pump. We've already had it. But the way I look at treasuries right now is they'll be unlikely. At some point, I still think that might be the next big trade. It's not going to happen. But the key trigger for

that is the stock market going down. Remember, right now, there's very little reason for to. But also, we've seen a lot of demand for treasuries in the auctions just recently. The point is, they're so high versus the rest of the world and the rest of the world is going to get lower. Their yields are going to lower. Their kinds are going to lower, particularly as the U.S. shuts them off from importing to the U.S. I'm sorry, from them exporting to you. That might be true. But if you look at the, okay, so if you just look at the Fed funds implied rate, the implied terminal rate, right? So you've got it right there, the WIRP on your screen. You can see that it's now, it's at 3.7% going into 26, right? So we're talking about, we're looking at term premiums on the 10 year of over a percent. So, I mean, there's a reason for that.

And the reason is inflation. Like the reason is inflation. There's just no question about it. We're going to have inflation. Now, I agree that gold, I think gold will go higher. It's having a little bit of pause here because US dollar, maybe some geopolitical risk has been taken off the table. The likelihood of us going to world war dropped with Trump coming into the office, in my personal

opinion, I think in traders and investors' opinions. So that's part of it. The dollar is part of it. Then it just needs a little bit of a breather because it has had a heck of a run for gold. It's nothing like Bitcoin, but the 10-year, I don't think it's going to stop here at 4.3%. I think it's going to gravitate up towards 5%. That's my personal opinion. It's because of long-term structural inflation and it's because of the deficits you talked about. We've been talking about this forever. Those are not going away.

Trump can, you know, Elon can go and try to cut costs, but there's no real place he can cut them. There's no, I mean, you could divert into more productive spending, but, and that's what I expect. I expect things like oil to come down in price because of additional drilling, opening up federal lands, allowing for more fracking, that kind of policy is going to be positive for energy costs. And then deregulation is going to be good for small companies. And you could have a jump in real GDP because of that. It remains to be seen how long it would take because, like you said, these policies take time to play out. It could be two or three years, and perhaps some of this stuff is getting ahead of itself. But I do expect real assets to benefit from it and smaller companies. I just want one fact, Annette. I think you will be right as long as the stock market keeps going up at the pace it is. If it has, at some point, we still haven't seen the beef, a normal 20%

drawdown, a normal year when it doesn't make 50 times new highs, maybe it doesn't make a new high for a couple of years, then I think you'll be right. But remember, if you're talking yields around 5%, what does that mean for the whole market? Remember the old bond vigilantes is bad. Key thing I'll point out is you're pointing out it's different this time. Deficits always didn't really matter. Maybe they're so big now they do, but just the thing that I've been pointing out for 30 years that anytime it just, they haven't mattered for us treasuries except in the short term. And then when you compare to the rest of the world, we're very much priced for very high deficits, very high

inflation in the US and the rest of the world is tilting towards deflation. Maybe we'll be able to avoid that. I understand, but the bond market is saying differently because as the Fed is lowering rates, the 10-year is going up. That's a really bad sign. It's a real bad sign for inflation. I get it, but what does that mean the Fed should do? Raise rates? does that mean the fed should do raise rates to make because by rate by lowering rates they're trying to help like mortgage backs markets and everything help them the economy and yet they're hurting auto loans and mortgages and everything so what does that mean i don't agree disagree but

also remember it's a short-term thing was for the election let's give it a couple months after the election maybe even get trump in office and we all know what's going to happen. The thing is, we all completely know what is completely anticipated. And will that occur? No, you don't. No, you don't. Well, no. Your analysis is not priced in. Bloomberg's analysis of the Trump administration is basically the French analysis when they built the Maginot Line that that would deter and stop

the Germans. It's fighting the last war. It is looking at things in a way that assumes past behavior when it's demonstrably different. So a couple of anecdotes. First, after 2016, about six months after, six, seven months after Trump took office, I was at a dinner and had a chance to talk with Paul Atkins, who, for those who don't know, was one of the key members of the Trump transition team. And before that, I knew him from when he was an SEC commissioner. And at one point, he was actually on a list for the SEC commissioner again this time, which he's a great, you know, he's a great mind. And we talked about Reg NMS and a lot of other stuff. But one of the things he said to me, which you've heard and read about in the press, is that they didn't expect to win.

They had done zero work before the election on assembling a transition team. And then they were really late to get started and they only had to focus on a few things. Basically, they did not have their shit together. He didn't have any plan for restaffing federal agencies, and it showed. This time, Howard Lutnick has been sitting on the Trump transition team for almost six months. It's actually five months. They have been working diligently to go through every federal agency to see where they need to make changes, where they can make changes and what they need to do so that they will hit the ground running. It will be vastly different this time. And you will watch it. I mean, he already has his list of people for his major appointments. They have the Senate this time. And you've seen that whether it's Thune or Rick Scott,

and I'm not going to lie, I'm definitely in favor of Rick Scott. Not just because I voted for him in Florida. And you don't like the guys, but I've had that guy around too long here. I'm definitely in favor of Rick Scott. I'm not just because I voted for him in Florida and you don't like the guys, but I've had that guy around too long here. I know too much. Rick Scott? As a lifetime Floridian is our past governor. We can talk about lots of policies, but the simple reality is is they're going to get started quicker. Now when the reason I don't like the Bloomberg analysis of his policies is it

starts with stuff that it doesn't include probably the most important policy changes, and it underestimates things in the crypto space as well. The first thing that's happened, and John Reed Stark said it, and John and I don't agree on everything by any means, but we do agree on this, which is that the SEC and CFTC should be focused almost exclusively when they do enforcement efforts on fraud and manipulation. And both, and in particular, the SEC has essentially ignored fraud and ignored manipulation in favor of pursuing good actors, you know, basically for jurisdictional reasons. That stops. That is massively important. That is a massive macro tailwind for all of crypto vis-a-vis the stock market where it has no effect. Now, there will be changes in the stock market. That is a massive macro tailwind for all of crypto vis-a-vis the stock market where it has no effect. Now, there will be changes in the stock market. That is true.

The other massive change that they are banking on is deregulation across other industries. Now, and when you talk about oil, you know, whenever we talk about commodities, we always talk about it monolithically. The truth is it isn't. Oil prices going up is a tax on the real economy. We understand that. Oil prices are coming down. They will probably continue to come down for a bunch of reasons, one of which is the one that Mike and I agree on, which is our technology is getting better and we're getting better

at that. But there's two others. One you guys mentioned, federal lands. The other James kind of mentioned, which is peace. Don't underestimate peace. Within a week, and he's not president yet, within a week, we've seen Qatar saying, Hamas, get the F out. Now, if you think that's because, I mean, Biden is saying it's because they pressured them to. It's like, yeah, they had a year to pressure them. That happened literally the day. We got two Qatar missions in one show you've seen saudi

arabia reaching out that you saw the houthis saying you know what we this was we're not targeting shipping anymore you know you've seen you know it's it peace in the middle east is not priced in in the oil markets mike i i actually agree with what you were saying months ago which is that we should see a test down. We might even see a test down to the 40. Maybe we've had some real monetary inflation, so maybe it'll go to 50. But we are not priced in for an oil drop if peace in the Middle East breaks out. And that, by the way, I think is my base case.

Yes, you know, you're going to see, my guess is, and we should talk about geopolitics and we'll probably will on spaces and other stuff. But my best guess is you're going to see the radicals get increasingly isolated and want this to change. And, you know, we have we've had a war premium in the oil price, you know, for this whole year, basically. And that that is a massive factor, because if oil prices go down, even even if you call that deflationary, I actually call that stimulative to real economic activity. And a lot of people would as well. So it is a double-edged sword and not priced in. Let me finish because there's one other thing that's not priced in. I'm going to ignore the, if he stays in power for beyond this, because totally not relevant. What is relevant is legacy. And the legacy that

he really wants to do is unleash American innovation. That's what Elon is there for, not to cut costs out of the federal government, but to cut the barriers to doing business in this country back to where we are the best place to do business. If they succeed on that, none of that is priced into any assets. Now, by the way, that would mean the trade is buy Russell short S&P or buy Russell two and short Russell one. If you want to get right down to it, because that way you're taking advantage of the smaller economy. But even there, that doesn't really capture the real effect, because what they're trying to do is get startups, new companies to get formed. And that's different in the economy. A lot of what's happened over the last 30 years is bipartisan corporatism,

meaning large companies favored over small companies. That trend reversing is good for crypto, certainly. It's also good for new businesses and smaller companies. It may not be great for companies priced to perfection in the S&P 500. And so when we dig into that in subsequent weeks- But let's put a pin in that for a second, because I was just reading on a Bloomberg Daily Trading note that with more than 90% of the S&P 500 members reporting, they're on track to nearly double expected earnings growth in the third quarter. So with an increase of 8% in P&L. So the question is, which side is going to revert? Are we going to catch up on the earning side or are we going to revert back to the PE ratio and revert

back, the whole market revert back in price to meet that ratio? That's the question. I really don't- And there is a separation between technology and energy and industrials. Yeah, I'm just saying, if we talk about the stock market, I think Mike and I will agree more than we disagree. Long term, I do think that there are some very big changes coming in multiple industries. And you have to do a deep dive into those. I mean, there is no doubt that big agricultural companies are going to have a lot of pain coming their way.

I mean, Monsanto, et cetera. You know, if RFK gets the, gets it to do what you want. Yeah. If I'm already seeing articles that RFK is going to get kicked out and he was just a useful. No, I understand. We'll see what happens. I think that there's I believe in some of it. I mean, yeah, I don't think he's going to be able to change the water system to the United States. I find it interesting that a president who ran on a platform widely of deregulating everything is going to allow RFK to heavily regulate that particular. No, he's not going to allow regular.

It's not it's not about regulations about well, what we once again, too deep of a dive for this. The question is, what are the policies in terms of financial markets and crypto? We know the policy is going to be no regulation by enforcement. There is a lot of reasons underneath the covers why that's going to matter. I personally think that my most important macro call in crypto, you can put a pin in it now, it's not a short term trading call, is long, real utility tokens, namely deep in and let an actual, you know, tokens that allow economic participation in what they do and they will outperform memes and other things. Yeah, this is the time. That's

because we're actually in that part of the cycle now where you can move something without a short run. In the short run, liquidity is going to trump all. It always does, but that's in the long run. But the point I'm trying to make that I think is most important is if you really want to peel back the onion, look for a peace dividend, look for an oil price dividend, and understand that when you talk about the Fed, the policy is to engineer inflation and assets while prioritizing capital over labor to include lower consumer. So you have lower consumer inflation, higher asset inflation. That's always been the goal. They're going to continue to be the goal. And so we have to understand that when we're making investment

decisions. Yeah, you could get into a situation where you have lower consumer inflation, higher asset inflation. Yeah, that's what they want. That's my point. i'm not saying like deflation deflation for and and and asset inflation yeah well oil prices dropping is quote deflationary but what it really does is it puts more money in people's pockets so it's not the only come on to me that's a no-no and we're glad we agree on that one it's probably our viewers prefer when we disagree but that's why i you you know we agree and also remember those aren't bloomberg views that's someone at bloomberg's views i pointed i know and i again i point out this morning i disagree with that i pointed out why

just read that book and having been in in knowing the human nature of what's happening here the key thing is that's why i keep tilting over to the number one commodity to watch that has to go up for global reflationary forces or deflation forces not to be kicking in. And that's copper because it's stuck in the middle. And you just look over and the one thing I will dispute a little bit what you said, Dave, is it is priced into some extent. It's hard to argue with the U.S. stock market, the highest ever versus MSCI ex-U.S. index, highest in 50 years at a 40-year high versus a Hang Seng index, with U.S. yields at two times the yield of the 10-year note in China, second largest economy, 100 basis points above the top five

countries in the rest of the world. The rest of the world's tilting towards that global deflationary recession. It's hard to say that what you just said and a lot of what's going to be happening is not already somewhat priced in. And that's what I tell the ones who are in the middle of the measure. Because what I'm saying is not priced in. I'm talking about crypto. I am absolutely agreeing with you that it is all priced in to most traditional financial assets, including, you know, whether it's bonds, stocks, et cetera. I think it is priced in. So that's why I'm just waiting for that. I'm just waiting for that sign of the crypto show that divergent strength when the stock market goes down.

We haven't really seen a good test. That's why it's not priced in. If there was that divergent strength, whether it be Bitcoin as a currency or tokenomics in order to be able to do distributed finance in a more egalitarian and efficient way, that disappeared poof overnight. I mean, do not underestimate the fact that we, I mean, look, we felt it, right? And we're a software company and we know that we have to tiptoe. Banks have been instructed for years to stop crypto companies in the United States. Yeah, that's done. Instructed to. of what you're saying. Anyone who has listened to me on Spaces multiple times knows that I often talk to John Reed Stark, who was at the SEC for two decades, head of enforcement for internet, hugely against crypto, thinks it's all for scammers and criminals. He's Anthony Scaramucci's

best friend from childhood, which is kind of funny. They argue about this, but this is what he said just the other day. The stark reality is that the people have spoken and the SEC should stop all crypto enforcement, dismiss, settle all ongoing crypto litigation, and Chair Gensler should resign. President Trump's victory was a mammoth landslide and it should be respected, begrudgingly, to the moon, I guess. Right. But you're talking about the guy who I would spend hours with debating these things. And he was critical of the SEC even at the time, but saying it's done. It's over. Let's go. That's right. And just to put, we had a conversation, John and I, and you on a spaces in August, I think it was, where actually may have been before that in July, where we talked about this. And the core question was, what is the SEC's mission?

And I complimented John because I've looked up his record and he actually did prosecute some very important cases. Some settled that really weren't talked about, but whatever. But in almost all cases, he prosecuted people who defrauded or manipulated, period. In other words, he did his job. We know where would Bitcoin and crypto be if there was real fraud prosecution and FTX was never allowed to happen. If Voyager was never allowed to misrepresent where they were getting their yield from. If Celsius was never allowed to proprietarily trade when they were telling people they were doing loans. Where would crypto be if there was a real cop on the beat and there was actual fraud prosecution and market manipulation prosecution where would it be higher much higher

and that is my point that is not priced in now is and the second point that's not priced in is bitcoin being a reserve asset but But that's the thing. I agree with you on all the other financial assets. You have two things that happen with the Trump victory. You removed the choke point 2.0, which is a barrier to Bitcoin and crypto markets and growth. I mean, Dave is 100% right. I've said on the show before, I have experienced it with my hedge fund. There was a very active and aggressive negative stance on crypto and Bitcoin in this administration. It was brutal. So they would just cancel wires. They would refuse to

issue wires. They would tell customers they had to leave their bank and go somewhere else if they wanted to send money to a crypto firm. You know, it was it was incredible. So that's gone. The barrier is gone. Then the second thing is. And the second thing is, the second thing is now you've got this momentum for Senator Lummis to push the bill, which she drafted this summer, to adopt Bitcoin as an asset, as a treasury asset. And that is massively significant if that goes through. I mean, that will be where, Mike, this is where that narrative changes. If that happens, if and when that happens, which I believe it will eventually happen, it'll take time. It's not going to happen overnight, but I do believe it happens. If and when that does happen, that just signals to the rest of the world that this is a valid asset to own.

It's not just some token. It's not just some fly-by-night meme scheme. It's not just some token. It's not just some, you know, fly by night, you know, meme scheme. It's it's real. And that will the U.S. Treasury doing that is a huge nod in the right direction. So I completely agree with that. When I read Safey Dean Ammons's book, Bitcoin Standard, he pointed out central banks would start hoarding or holding Bitcoin. Like, was that six years ago? I disagree. But then, you know then became a zealot, no zealot like a convert. It's just a question of time. Now we're talking about a lot of if statements and we're pricing a lot for those if statements. Don't disagree. It's the bigger picture though. Again, I just think- Oh, I don't think 82,000 is pricing it in. I think 82,000 is pricing

in a low probability that it happens. 82,000 is just a simple breakout. Let's just not forget what's happening. Bitcoin is still three times the volatility of S&P 500, three times the volatility of gold. To be a reserve asset, anything of big size, maybe less than 0.001%, that volatility has to go down, which means these big moves should be arbed out at some point. I think that the volatility comes down after the big moves. It's not the volatility comes down and then you have the big moves. It's going to go.

What's my answer to that volatility point? Yeah, of course. It's moved out over time. Is it a matures? Yeah, I don't want to go down the opposite path at all. The large asset class. The large asset class is on its own current and future adoption. Right, exactly. Exactly. But let's talk about that because it's massively interesting how we have actually grown an industry with half of the world's investable wealth, having a banking system that basically said, if you're a any economist about any other small businesses or startup economies, it doesn't matter what sector it is.

The very first thing they want to try to do is say, make was literally people were screaming about it. It was, oh, my God, why do we have to save these banks that have done this stupid crap that we're going to save them and create more wealth concentration in the biggest banks? The reason given every single time, every time, was if the banks don't have the capital to loan to businesses our economy will grind to a screeching halt right does anybody dispute that on this power because we are we are we are based on debt correct so now we've had an industry that has had that happen in spades to it for multiple years of the Biden administration. And now that's going to end. To not consider the implications of eliminating a freeze in debt capital for an entire industry, well, that's just foolish. And to me, that is a very big deal. It is a much bigger deal than people are pricing it.

It's a huge deal. I had a conversation with somebody who's a, who, who an entrepreneur who wants to do rollups. I'm not going to get into the specifics of it. Wants to roll up of an industry and, you know, to do a rollup, you need, you need capital. You need, you need to be able to borrow capital to do it. But the moment that he said he wants to put, you know, Bitcoin on the, on the balance sheet and the treasury and to grow and to grow his treasury that way, it was like, well, you're never going to get a bank to do that.

Not in this administration. It's just not going to happen. You're not going to get even a regional bank to say that they will come to terms with covenants that will include that. It just won't happen. So it's exactly right, Dave. All I'm saying is it's a big deal. Yeah, it is a big deal. I want to just show you guys something really quickly, a couple charts, because the market has opened 15 minutes ago, obviously. We got Coinbase gapped from $270 to over $300. The first time it's been $300 since 2021. And MicroStrategy coincidentally also actually gapped up above $300 before trading right back down below. Michael bought another, that's the thing though, is Michael bought another 27,200 Bitcoin in MicroStrategy.

So now they're holding $279,420. So what that does here, okay, is that that reduces. So because the EV, the enterprise value to the underlying Bitcoin AUM, right? That reduces it back down under a certain percentage, right? So it brought it down pre-market down to like 2.58. If you look at the enterprise value over the underlying Bitcoin, well, now it's back up to 2.78. Now it was trading over three this last month. So- This feels euphoric. I mean, listen, I wouldn't short it. There's a story here that people who shorted Tesla, I think, got bad. And that's what I'm trying to tell you, Scott.

You don't jump in front of this moving train, but if you are putting on your rational thinking. Right, right. But Scott, what I'm telling you is that the reason that it's jumping is not just because Bitcoin's going up. It's because Michael has brought down the ratio, the enterprise value to underlying Bitcoin ratio by buying those. So price goes up to replace that ratio back towards where it was, which was somewhere around 2.8 to 3.0 over the last month. It probably had gotten ahead of itself, I think. But nobody knows where the long-term ratio of this should be. I mean, obviously, there was a split.

Yeah, there was obviously a split. But when you point at where... One second, Dave. There's obviously a split. But when you point at where MicroStrategy buys Bitcoin, so this chart is traded, it was affected. I mean, at the time, it was like 120 bucks or something. Right. But it's $12. I hear about 25, 30 X since MicroStrategy bought Bitcoin.

I mean, that's just a absolutely insane, insane number. Yeah, but I make a point about Coinbase and the way the market is trading. So, you know, we all like to talk about deja vu and understand what's going on. I will tell you that the market in crypto for the last week and the market in Coinbase this morning and what we're seeing today is almost exactly the same as the market in internet stocks in the six months prior to March of 2000. So this is a lot like the, you know, the 1999 and then they're worried about year 2000 stuff. And then the, that first three months of 2000, where there were massive bull runs and those massive bull runs weren't God candles. They were 2%, 3% rallies every Monday when the people over the weekend called their brokers and were buying

stuff. And you saw, and generally Tuesday was a moderate reversal, followed by Wednesday, things starting to go up. And then Thursday was, and Friday was a big up day as people were trying to get their stuff done in before the weekend. And it was just lather, rinse, repeat for week after week, day after day, like constant people sitting out. There were there were sorry to people who I worked with. There were people who were functional, could have probably their best qualification was they played lacrosse in college and they got a job on an OTC trading desk, and they were making millions in salaries, basically pushing buttons, doing nothing but getting in front of customer orders, not necessarily the illegal front running, but just knowing it was going to be there and keeping the desks long. And this was across,

there were hundreds of these guys across multiple firms. The type of trading mechanics you saw there was rally, hold, rally, hold, not what we've seen in crypto for years, which is euphoric rally, dump, euphoric rally, dump. This is far more like that. And that is a trading pattern that people need to understand. And a lot of crypto traders don't know that. And that's why a lot of traders, you know, they've learned over the good thing is, is you have eight months of a range bound market. And so what that meant is people who got euphoric got liquidated when nobody followed them into the pool. And so that's why when you look at things like the funding rates and you look at liquidation, so you've had a very, very large move, right? Very large move. You know, the 24 hour liquidation is actually more longs were liquidated than shorts. Of course, because of the flush and bounce. But not big numbers. The last time we hit an all-time high, funding rates went to 0.05.

They're still at only 0.0119. I mean, they're very small elevation. And that elevation is almost exactly the same as the tether premium that we pointed out earlier in the show. But there's one other effect of an eight-month bull market that needs to be talked about. James and I were talking about it right before we went on air, which is in an eight-month bull market, or range-bound market, excuse me, institutions that were long Bitcoin, many of them sold covered calls in order to increase their yield. Every one of them is now functionally short from where they want it to be

because those calls are getting called away. Or for them to buy them back is going to cost them a lot more. Expensive. It was an expensive. But that happens. And the dynamics of a range bound market, I mean, we always talk about, Scott, you and I have been talking about it since March, but people need to understand why a range bound market. I mean, we always talk about, Scott, you and I have been talking about it since March, but people need to understand why a range bound market creates so much volatility

when the range breaks. On the upside, it's because people lean against that 70,000 level. There are a ton of people who sold 70 to 80,000 in that range calls on Bitcoin, thinking it was free yield. And for eight months, it was free yield until it isn't. There used to be a company, I'll never forget. And then it eats into your captured yield for months. We got to move to Mike and James before you get into your anecdote about the company. I'm sorry. Okay, so fine. Ignore it. But that's the other thing. You guys could refer to it as a gamma squeeze. I think it's much more orderly than that, but it's still- Part of it is that. Part of it is a gamma squeeze. It's not all one or the other.

Yeah. Mike, I mean, we got to get your take on all of this. There's been so much, and I do want to go back just slightly because I brought up this chart earlier, and it's interesting because we talk about, obviously, commodities, inflation, but 20 percent tariffs on all imports under Trump, 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports, 200 percent tariff on imported vehicles from Mexico. And then you have China's record one trillion trade surplus as Trump returns. And these seem to be opposing forces running into each other here. Right. So expect him to do what he says. This is an emboldened human being with a carte blanche to do it, who's actually had his life threatened and is now thinking legacy. How's

the world going to view him? And the world's already tilting that way. So I see severe deflationary forces come out of China. China's probably going to do what Japan did. Japan's GDP now is the same as it was 30 years ago. I think the quote was that for a little while there, its peak Japan was almost 75% of US GDP. That's about where China is now. Severe deflation just kicking in and potentially regime change. I mean, major interior things. I'm just looking at the US trade balance of services deficit. It's 84,000 a month. And they averaged 71. The average for 12 months is 71 billion. That's been trading higher, more and more trade deficits since Trump was in office. And it was around closer to 50 billion. It's only going to, it's going to reverse, but the rest of

the world, good luck. And then you have to think of what tariffs are going to do for U.S. multinationals. Part of the reason, the whole point of that book i i pointed out was um that no trade is free is this was u.s corporate profits doing great because they offshored everything turned everything over it was like the major focus of jack welch wouldn't do any business with any company that didn't take their show that's all going back the other way it's great internally it's going to be bad for inflation. It's going to be bad initially for profits. So this is going to be a transition. But that might take years. The thing is, I want to ask everybody, is it going to get better than whether

is the outlook right now going to get better than it looks right now? We're pricing a lot of optimism. We have to see how Trump does. But I fully expect him to do what he says. And don't underestimate the human nature of this human being who now has a ticket to do what he said he would do and shocked everybody. And I also mess with, you know, being in the media and Bloomberg, I kind of got, you know, I thought I didn't think he would win, but he did. And boom, the switch was flipped. Move on. But that's why I have to be, you know, as a commodity guy, like I said, copper is going to be the number one that matters. I still think the next big trade is going to be treasury bonds. Remember what they're competing against?

Record setting risk assets. Sure, if that keeps going up, that's great. Bond yields will stay high. You got to expect that to keep happening. And the question is, how much longer will it last? Mike, I have one more question. We talked about earlier the 60-day correlation of Bitcoin being the most it's been with the stock market. 0.67.

You said, ever? On the way up. What's the shorter, the curious, like what becomes, you know, when you take a look at the move from high 60s to 84, how much is that going to change with how much bitcoin has gone up to relative to everything else in this shorter period of time because it seems like it has to have decoupled from that making you know it did for a little while right now the number is 0.67 it's in own community i tested futures because you know futures versus the bitcoin futures and versus s&p mini futures a little bit lower because they only

trade the same time. But this, the measure is, Dave can dig into specifics. I'd like to say it's the highest ever on the way up. I mean, and it's going up. That's great. As long as everything's going up. And the question is how long will that last? And everything looks great right now. Correlation, Scott, and what you're getting at is correlation measures direction, not magnitude. Right. And so a day that the stock market goes up half a percent and Bitcoin goes up 4% registers as correlated. You know, it's, and the thing about that. That's exactly my point.

In 30 days, if we look at the 60 day, when it's actually heavily accounting for the move that we just saw, I have a feeling it's going to be a very different number. Well, numbers, key thing. But here's I'll show one little key thing that's been a thing I'd like to watch for a little sign of animal spirits is that ratio between micro strategy and Bitcoin is about the highest ever right now. OK, get a little leverage. Bitcoin's leveraged. I like to say Bitcoin's leveraged beta.

Micro strategies, strategies leverage Bitcoin. I mean, Micro strategies is gamma It is what it is But Bitcoin does not leverage beta And at the end of the day Our biggest disagreement Fastest horse in the race Isn't that what that means?

Fastest horse in the race In terms of devaluation of currencies Not in terms of risk assets As a writ large But you and I We've beaten that one to death we all know where we stand and honestly i don't think that i'm persuading you or you're persuading me i just think that that when in terms of crypto i think in terms of of other coins i think that is

potentially leveraged beta because you you're going to see if in fact it goes the way we think and this is something to dig into at other times if you end up with a regime where instead of having to go through the vc route of years and years and years to raise liquidity you can actually raise money via tokens and have immediate liquidity or relatively immediate liquidity in a legal way i think you're gonna that is a massive uh unlock for entrepreneurs in this country and if you think that this administration doesn't know that, then you're not paying attention. And that is a big deal. But that has nothing to do with anything except for the layer ones that might and other tokens that will actually be used to build said tokenomics. So I don't want to talk about that now, per se. But I do think it's

important to understand that every single time conventional economists have looked at the Trump package, they have focused on the red meat. They have focused on tariffs and talked about Smoot-Hawley, and we could dig into that, but they ignore the regulatory cutting. They ignore all of the things to improve business conditions for GDP growth. And that does matter. And we're going to see how that plays out. It just takes a long time, though. It's a long time. 100%, you're right. This is the sort of things where people are going to try. You would think that the tariff situation, Mike, and we talked about this, I think, on Thursday, you would think that it would, kind of to your point, it would be one of those decisions to take short-term pain for long-term gain if you believe that it would work over time.

But the production and everything would come back to the United States. It would force us to make everything here and be less reliant. That's not an overnight thing. So if you believe that tariffs long-term are good, you have to believe also that they would be painful in the short term. Yeah. And so maybe this Trump administration is ready to hit the ground running. And just the book pointed it out. He's a former trade representative from Robert Lighthizer. They're going to hit the ground running. And my thought is they're going to be thinking, okay, we got to get through this probably right away,

bang out those tariffs as much as possible, the regulation right away and before the midterms. You're going to have to. From a trading perspective, what does that mean? That means the fourth quarter GDP is going to be larger than people expect because a lot of people are rushing to import Chinese parts and goods for reselling and for construction. Get ahead of it. Doing the same thing. There is going to be a massive surge in inventories in the fourth quarter.

And that's natural. It's no different. I mean, if that doesn't happen, I would be really, really surprised. How does that affect next year's profits? What will actually materialize after that? Those are all questions for another day. Markets tend to look at the bright, shiny object in front of them, at least as a terms of liquidity. And you need to understand that. So if you do expect

a massive surge in inventory buildup, which will look like bigger GDP numbers will look better than being short this market over the next few weeks is probably not going to work out terribly well. That's just there. And that's if Mike's right. Now, if Mike's wrong, then they will have done that. And yeah, you'll have a normal inventory work through. My guess is Mike is more right than wrong when it comes to will tariffs get put in. I suspect, however, that they're going to be more moderate than people have talked about. And I think they're going to be more targeted at industries that they really care about and where they're equalizing and equalizing environmental and worker rules. And using the threat of them, using the threat of them as, you know,

to negotiate. Yeah. That is because the reality is that this administration we have now could use a threat and it was empty, completely empty. But if Trump comes in and uses it as a threat, okay, that gun is loaded in their mind and it's real. That's right. And that's a very big difference. I mean, there is no such thing as a red line being written in the sand in the next administration. Here's something interesting. You just came across the tape that CNBC just said that there's $2.8 billion of options bets of Bitcoin going over $90,000. So what's interesting about that is, you know, on a trading perspective, it just means that $90,000 is kind of acting as a

gravitational force now. That's what that number is. And so going back to Mike's comment on the gamma, that's what that is. That will act as a planetary force of gravitation. It will also give a really good opportunity for the basis trade, which could be driving a lot of that spot by. Let me just back up a little bit what James said, unless I was in that position. I just, having trade options my whole life. And that's why I got to, you know, to New York was when you see a concentration of open interest. And if I'm long those calls, typically the market will go there after my calls expire. Yeah.

Remember, but look, watch what Mike, you see what MicroStrategy has done over the last month. It's blown through every single one of those levels because of the gamma squeeze so well there's this i think i think that so i think people are doing the art the short microstrategy long bitcoin and sorry but yeah we all know that's just shorting the space and that's way out of the loop for me i would never you know the basic math on the basis trade i'm looking at december i'm not going to show the screen again, but it's the same screen. I'm looking at December and November. You're talking about nine percent, which is not annualized. So, I mean, it was it was as high. It was in the double digits. The basis trade is not exploding. This is real buying.

And by the way, the reason that there is a basis trade and it makes sense that the basis is lower in this rally with Trump than it did with Biden. Why? Because the reason there's a basis trade is because of something that's going to disappear. And the reason there was that basis trade, for those who don't understand it, is that U.S. financial firms looking to hedge their Bitcoin, you know, whether it's derivative positions or ETFs, the only thing they could buy was ETFs because they're not allowed to touch spot Bitcoin. The instant Gensler's, you know, whatever, I is going to go poof, meaning that Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and the other people trading will be able to buy spot and not necessarily pay above market interest rates by buying futures in order to do that. So you expect it to come down. And guess what? Markets are rational. It's two or 3% lower in this rally than it's ever been over the last,

you know, over the last year since the ETFs went live. And that's a trend that you expect, which makes it a much stronger rally, by the way. And just a footnote on the basis trade, Mike, and not just that you wouldn't want to be short anything in Bitcoin. The people who were doing the hedge funds who were doing that trade of long Bitcoin short micro strategy, they better have been doing it in the right dollar value because they didn't understand that that mike michael still had an atm available to buy underlying bitcoin and return that that ev ratio to underlying bitcoin back to where it was that

just what's interesting is did not understand what what that that it was out of alignment because he still had the atm open but we also that what's interesting is when that happened back, that was the last time, March, April, when we went from basically 70,000 down back below 60. If you watched, that's when those micro strategy shorts got squeezed, which meant those people had to sell off the underlying Bitcoin from that trade and actually sent Bitcoin price down significantly. But Mike, you were about to comment. Yeah. No, no, you nailed it. That's the thing. It's an options trader. You can always structure options positions that won't crush you with the negative gamma. Well, obviously people are getting hurt with the negative gamma. Well, yeah, because what people do is like when you do a pairs trade and there are a lot of

systems. So like, you know, when you have a pairs trading system, like, you know, our company offers and others, you can, people buy X and sell Y. But what if you expect X to converge to Y at a different price? MicroStrategy has levered Bitcoin. If you were short one, if you were dollar for dollar, you were functionally dumb. You really needed to take into account that. If you did a dollar neutral trade on that, you got destroyed. Yeah. And of course you- You should not understand. And that's a short Bitcoin position outright.

That's a negative delta. And no, thanks. You want to do that trade. You always want a positive delta on that trade. Right. That's right. So, you know, but I was talking about the Chicago CME futures versus spot and CME futures calendar role as indicative of what's going on underneath structural in the market, because that's the other thing that you don't, that is not priced in. No broker dealer in America is allowed to offer Bitcoin trading services to their customers. Here we are on November 11th,

2024. Every broker dealer that applies to be able to offer bitcoin trading services as a commodity through their broker dealer will be able to offer though that in november 11 2025 think about that they can offer etfs but once you're allowed i gotta hop guys so i gotta get going i'm sorry guys so to put to put it put an exclamation point what dave what you just said is that there's so much still not priced in bitcoin the treasury not priced in broad broad uh institutional uh adoption is not priced in being added to uh corporate treasury balance balance sheets you know it's not It's not priced in. 82,800 is wonderful.

And I do expect volatility, but none of that stuff is priced in. And Scott's indicator is also flashing massively green. Dogecoin about to hit 37. Oh my God, listen, I was going to say really quickly, this is what I was going to try to conclude with. You guys may have remembered in March when I said the top is in for six months, I said retail does not come back until Doge starts pushing all-time highs because that's the thing that everybody's holding and will not pay attention to crypto until they're not massively underwater.

Like all of the FOMO of the last cycle was people buying Doge, NFTs, and some Bitcoin. But it was primarily Doge. If you guys remember, when I talked to CZ, he said, there's not enough people in China to do customer service to onboard people fast enough to buy Doge. Well, those people are now starting to see headlines about Doge. They're going to start looking at it and saying, oh, well, maybe this crypto thing is back. And that's where the retail liquidity to me is going to come in. I said this six months ago. Now look at Doge. They're hitting 30 cents today after dropping as low as basically 5 cents.

Only like 60% off an all-time high. That can be a day in Doge's price action for anyone who knows. I've got the Doge oven mitt. You guys have been asking for it right here. It's always on my desk because I know that you guys are going to ask for it. And James and Dave,

I'm going to do something very embarrassing, but they're asking for it in the crowd. As we exit, I'm going to play this song, if you don't mind. I think it's playing. Do you guys hear it? We do. I just, by the way, that's going to give me a copyright strike, in case you guys are wondering.

But I did start it, and I did know that now the video cannot be monetized, which is good, because we won't see a scam video of Brad Garlinghouse telling you to send an XRP at the beginning of the video or whatever. Dave, I absolutely loved the where's the beef. I think we could probably talk today for many, many hours. But I think the resounding sentiment here is that Bitcoin has now broken out. And if you have followed the cycles in the past, not that they have to repeat, but what we've been saying, at least for a while, is altcoins are probably going to boom sometime in the next six to nine months as the FOMO really catches up. And one last thing I want to show you just back to Rick Scott, because it triggered me. You guys may not know much about Rick Scott,

who is now probably going to be the Senate majority leader. But this guy oversaw as CEO of Columbia HCA of the largest healthcare fraud in the history of mankind of Medicare and Medicaid also was the least popular government in the history of Florida, 26% approval rating. This guy has been hated his way to the top, and it would be astounding to see him the head of the Republican Senate. I mean, it's unbelievable if you dig into his history, but hey, and it would be astounding to see him, the head of the Republican Senate. I mean, it's unbelievable if you dig into his history, but hey, you know what? Welcome to American Politics. Guys, that's all we got for you today.

That was absolutely an epic show. So much fun. I can't wait to do it again next week. I have spaces in six minutes. Gotta go. Thanks, everyone. Peace. We'll do it again. Okay, we gotta go. Peace. We'll do it again. Okay. We got to go.