The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Crash? This $5 Trillion Institution Is Insanely Bullish On Crypto

Episode Date: June 25, 2024

Chris Kuiper, the Director of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets—a cryptocurrency-focused division of Fidelity Investments, which manages nearly $5 trillion in assets—joins us today to discuss the recent cryptocurrency market downturn. We'll explore why Fidelity maintains a strong belief in the potential of cryptocurrencies despite the market's challenges. Chris Kuiper: https://twitter.com/ChrisJKuiper My friends from The Arch Public, Andrew Parish, and Tillman Holloway, are joining in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.  Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/  Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus  Tillman Holloway: https://twitter.com/texasol61  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Crypto may be crashing in the short term, visiting $61,000 and actually dropping below $60,000 for Bitcoin, which I think if you look back six months to a year would be a dream price for June of 2024. But it may be crashing in the short term. But when you zoom out and realize how far we've come, how many massive financial institutions are paying attention to our space, actively participating, building products, building on the technology, and of course, taking in massive amounts of money. It's hard to be bearish. Today, I have Chris Kuiper, who is the head of research at Fidelity Digital Assets to discuss everything happening in the market, in the institutional world around

crypto. And of course, Andrew from Arch Public on the back half at 9.30. You guys don't want to miss this show. Let's go. I don't actually care. But it's cool. It's cool because it's become the catchphrase. It's like, I am George. We are all George. I guess I say subscribe and like. Anyways, back to the topic at hand as you see my ADHD running rampant this Tuesday morning. We have a crypto crash, right? We've got, let's take a quick look at CoinMarketCap. We've got Bitcoin at $61,000. The horror of Bitcoin is $61,000. You look back, we were at like 15,000 something when FTX collapsed in November of 2022. But now we're crashing. Bull market's over. We're dead. There's nobody here going straight to zero because people are emotionally incapable of handling a couple months when prices are not up only. But we are

down with Bitcoin about 6% in seven days. Interestingly, Ethereum, basically flat, and actually quite a few altcoins have been outperforming Bitcoin on this last dip. Bitcoin dominance actually dropped. But do we really want to spend another day focusing on why Bitcoin is 60,000 or 61,000 or 62,000? The answer is no, I don't. I want to talk to Chris about why some of the biggest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, a $5 trillion institution, are so interested in Bitcoin and crypto. Good morning, Chris. How are you, man? Good morning to you as well. Thanks for having me back, Scott. So listen, we can bring on anyone from any institution, but Fidelity has been here the longest.

You guys have had a longstanding commitment to the digital asset space, mining, participating since the early days. Nothing new here for you, right? This is one of many normal cycles and things seemingly only ramping up from the institutional side. Sorry. Sorry, you broke up at the end there.

Yeah, just saying, obviously, things continuing to ramp up on the institutional side in general, and I think nothing new here for you guys at Fidelity who are seasoned pros. Yeah, we've been in the space since at least 2014, as far as I know, maybe even earlier, and Fidelity Digital Assets was officially launched in 2018. I came on board not even three years ago. And my personal anecdote, just to pile on to what you're saying here is, I started in Fidelity Digital Assets had about 120 or so employees. It was myself and one other analyst on the research side. We've grown to over at least 700 now. And so a lot of that hiring was

done during the bear market. And so of course, when I first started, we went up to the all-time high at that time, 69,000. I was feeling pretty good. I thought I'd picked a good place and a good spot to make this my full-time work, which of course I just love nothing more. I do it almost for free, but don't tell Fidelity that. But anyway, I joined and I thought I had a great run here and a good timing. And then of course, we absolutely just crashed 85 plus percent. And I was a little nervous, but it was just so refreshing to see Fidelity take that as an opportunity to step on the gas, to make really good hires. As I said, we went from 120 to over 700 people today. And even my team on the research side has grown from just myself and one other analyst

to six other analysts now. So as you said, we believe in the space. We're not here as tourists. We're not here for the headline grabbing. We're here to build and to actually integrate this into all aspects of the money management business of Fidelity's different business units. Yeah. aspects of the money management business of Fidelity's different business units. Yeah. I think at 69,000 last cycle, pretty much everyone who was looking at a chart or participating thought we were about to levitate to 100,000. So I don't blame you for your

predictions on the market. I, at the time, thought we were going to 230,000, to be quite honest. That was my prediction. So we have to hold ourselves accountable for those. I do think that could happen this cycle. But that said, so you obviously participated in a full bear market, right? You came at the peak of a bull market, but Fidelity has now been here for two or three cycles, right? I would say even earlier than the official launch in 2018, looking at your guys' history, is anything that's happening right now, this down summer, sort of this altcoin bleed out, is it concerning to you guys at all? To me personally, no. I come from an equity research background. And whenever you have a thesis on a stock and all of a sudden the stock

sells off 20%, usually on an earnings release or some kind of news, it's a gut check. It's a good gut check to your thesis. And you go back to your thesis and you try to do it with a clear head and say, has anything material changed with my thesis that the price is down this much? Is price telling me a valuable piece of information that my thesis is broken and I need to pay attention to it? Or is it what you alluded to in your intro,

a lot of emotional stuff going on or maybe it's short- term news or stuff like that. And I think that's where we're at today. If I try to be as objective as possible, just taking Bitcoin, for example, first of all, zoom out. We're still up over 100% on the last trailing year. We were up 155% last year. We're well into a bull market by a number of metrics. And it's normal to have 20% to 30% drawdowns.

We're only around 15% to 17% down from the last all-time high. So this is very normal. It should be expected. And has anything changed with the thesis? No, not really. Nothing's changed in terms of its immutability, the network security, its scarcity, its supply cap, all of those things that are the core fundamental thesis for someone who's holding and buying this for the long term or as a store of value. What has changed

is some of the short term, the new stuff, the Mt. Gox unlock, as I saw you wrote about in your newsletter. That is real. It's something that you should pay attention to. And it depends on your timeframe as an investor. And we can talk about that. But that doesn't change the fundamental thesis, right? We've been through big unlocks before, whether it's a GBTC selling a bunch into the market or FTX or something like that. So we've been here before. The miners are selling. That's also not new and should be expected. We knew going into the halving that all the miners cannot be above average. That's not mathematically possible. And we saw a lot of them hold on a lot longer than we expected because we ran into the new all-time high before the

halving. And then you also had a lot of these extra fees, a little extra juice to these miners with the ordinals and the inscriptions and the runes and all this kind of stuff. So they've been holding on a little longer than expected, but now some of the weaker ones are going to be forced to sell. And we've been seeing that. And then even a bigger trend before all of this and before the Mt. Gox news as well, was we were seeing long-term holders sell into the strength. And that's also a very normal part of the cycle. We saw an all-time high of 70%, a little over 70% of all coins hadn't been moved in over a year going into 2024. And now that's coming down and we're seeing net selling from the long-term holders. Again, natural part of the cycle, it should be expected,

but none of that is very different. There's a few little different wrinkles here and there in terms of the cycles I've been through, but to me, it's playing out as expected. Yeah. I saw actually a stat yesterday because it was widely reported that Bitcoin whales were selling for the first time in years, sort of as reported, which is normal, right? You make new highs, they take some profit. Some of them are actively trading it and buying dips. Then I saw actually as of June 17th, a week ago, it was reported by Data Mishi, it's called, that those whales had increased their long positions once again by 2,580 Bitcoin and effectively erased what they had sold. So they sold and then bought the dip, right? A tale as

old as time, I think, was some of them. But it is fair to point to the fact that there's some fear around Mt. Gox. To me, I think it's wildly overblown. But everybody has their own opinion on that. And of course, we've done a lot of shows on mining and quite a few of these public and private miners, we knew we're going to be in big trouble if prices didn't sustain at these highs. To the point where we almost conjectured that some of the strongest miners should just actually aggressively sell to take out the competition. But I don't know if that's what's actually happening. But there are sellers in the market. But interestingly, even after all of that, yesterday, I just saw this.

We had net inflows once again. The spot Bitcoin ETFs had 174 million in net inflows yesterday, even as price was sort of dropping. So I don't know if that's an indication that people buy the dip or that this bleed is ending. Coin shares had said 544 million outflow last week, I think reported over a billion in total. It's kind of hard to get caught up in the weeds of these inflows and outflows at this point, though. They come and they go. Yeah, it is hard to try to untangle who it is. We definitely saw the first wave, call it, of the selling and the buying one product, which of course had a big outflow,

and then a hot start out of the gate. And then we saw a second wave, which really did drive the price. And then all last month, we had a net outflow, price went down with that. And then we switched to net inflows. But then people were scratching their heads saying, we've got pretty strong inflows, why isn't the price moving? And one of the things, and you've probably talked about on your show before, is this cash and carry trade, this basis trade of people being long the future. So overall bullish, but then that opens up an opportunity for these arbitragers to go in and buy the spot and short the future. So they can now buy spot, not direct, but through the exchange traded products. And so I think that's why, or at least that's maybe a hint of why you saw inflows into these products, but not necessarily

a corresponding move in the price. And so that's one thing to be aware of. But again, long-term, natural part of the market, it's a healthy part of the market to have these different players. You can see on the commitment of traders reports, asset managers are way long, hedge funds are way short, it takes both sides to make these markets. And the good thing about this is now CME, I forget, I'd have to check it's like over a billion or something in open interest on these futures. So it's now become the largest futures market eclipsing some of these offshore platforms, which I think is great to see as well, to see that institutional player and that institutional money come into this. These are all just mile markers on this road to adoption and the

institutionalization of this space, at least in my opinion. And CME has reportedly been looking at offering spot Bitcoin trading, which would allow them effectively to institutions to do that basis trade in one place. Yep. Yep. Very convenient for them. Yeah. Which I think would be an interesting evolution, but I think arguably a good thing to have more serious participants allowing access to any of these products and to this asset class, right? Because it's interesting, even with SAB 121 and the approaches of banks trying to get more involved, actually, those institutions have had trouble, ironically, beyond the ETFs getting involved

in the space. They want to custody these assets. They don't want Coinbase to be effectively the custodian to the majority of these, right? We want some diversification, and we just haven't been able to get it because of the laws. But I think any step in that direction is great. More institutions coming in is great. I mean, listen, you're sitting at Fidelity. You've been there for years, right? You said since the top of the market, would you have thought that sitting here in 2024 in June, that we would be talking about this many massive

institutions? But you guys are one of the biggest institutions in the world. BlackRock is arguably the biggest institution in the world, would be so actively participating in this space. It's kind of a dream come true if you zoom out. Yeah. We always thought, or at least I always thought and was hopeful that the exchange traded products would happen. It would just be a matter of time. We just couldn't let other countries do it. There was just no reason to not have it. So that was a matter of time. But I will freely admit and humbly admit that I was very wrong on the interest in flows. I thought it would be much less.

And of course, it was an amazing amount. These are some of the most successful products of all time. And I think that really speaks to how much demand was still out there. I thought, well, people can open accounts. They can get direct access a number of ways. And even Fidelity had offered a way to get direct access before. But boy, did I underestimate the desire and the convenience of those exchange traded products, those wrappers, those structures that everyone kind of knows and loves and are familiar with. So it's been great to see. And again, just another step on this road to financialization. And to your point

earlier on the futures as well, academic research shows that when futures markets get developed around a commodity, so if you go back and look at corn and beans and all these other commodities, it creates market efficiencies, it lowers asymmetric information. And really the bottom line is it lowers volatility. People can now look out further, they can hedge, they can express all these different opinions. And that's what we're going to see as well as this develops. And eventually, I'm sure we'll get options on these products as well and all the other things that go along with it. And it could create some noise and volatility in the short term. But long term, I'm hopeful that this is just on that path. It's going to lower volatility overall,

make it more accessible to other segments of the market out there that need or want exposure. Does lowering volatility with all those products also cap the upside in your mind? I don't think so because you can have something that goes up in a more orderly fashion. So the volatility goes down, but it still grows. So if you think of large cap stocks, their volatility is much lower, you know, fractions of what Bitcoin is at or was at, and they can still have massive gains. So maybe some people might get the traders and speculators out there might get a little disappointed if the volatility goes down. But for I think everyone else, it's going to be a lot easier to handle

and swallow that volatility of holding on and not getting shaken out. I find it interesting that volatility is at relatively historic lows for the stock market, at least for how long it's been this way, to your point. But we still see 20% moves on Meta inVIDIA, you know, down 13, 14% in a few days. I mean, a lot of people, because we love to draw comparisons and give excuses, a lot of people pointing to the fact that NVIDIA is sort of dropping here for the Bitcoin slump. I think that's nonsensical. Bitcoin's been slumping since March and NVIDIA has been down for less than a week. Right.

But people say, you know, that that could be a reason that we might be seeing weakness in tech. And so Bitcoin's down. To me, I don't see these correlations, no matter how hard I look. But a lot of people do. I mean, do you think that there's validity to the Bitcoin is just another risk on tech investment? There's certainly a subset of people who treat it the same.

And so they maybe are flipping in and out of AI related stocks and things and into Bitcoin and other crypto digital assets. So that I'm sure that's true for some. But overall, if you look at the data, the correlation, yes, I will fully admit it. It did trade like a tech stock. Bitcoin has traded like a lever tech stock at times, especially during during COVID. But if you zoom out, the longer term picture is Bitcoin has very like a lever tech stock at times, especially during COVID. But if you zoom out, the longer term picture is Bitcoin has very low correlation to really every asset class, stocks, bonds, even commodities and gold, which is very surprising. And so the big question is, and I'm not saying I know the answer to this, of course, but the big question everyone has to

answer is, so is the higher correlation the normal going? Or do we revert back to the mean? So is this the exception or the norm? And I'm personally in the camp that this is the exception only because eventually, if people when they figure out Bitcoin and other digital assets are fundamentally different than a tech stock, then they will express that and it will trade differently. But if they're under the impression and they think that it's the same thing, guess what? It's going to trade that way. If you treat it that way, it's going to trade that way. And that's what it has done in the past. But it's actually come down quite a bit. And so I think going forward, we could see Bitcoin once again being a separate macro asset, which is what I think it is personally. And I think it's going

to trade that way eventually in the long term. And to me, that's the greatest selling point that there is for putting Bitcoin in your portfolio, whether you get it, love it, hate it, otherwise. Actually, I used to host Twitter spaces at 8am every day, finance spaces, and the host, Danish, was so anti-Bitcoin. And eventually, I just kept sending him articles about sharp ratio and lack of correlation. And then one day, he was watching Jerome Powell last December, and he sort of pivoted. He said, you know what? This pisses me off. I'm buying Bitcoin. And now he's a Bitcoiner and has watched it improve the sharp ratio of his portfolio. So my pitch has always been, even if you don't like this asset, the holy grail of a portfolio

is to have something in there, even if it's 5% or less, that is provably idiosyncratic or uncorrelated to everything else. And there's no asset you can find in my mind that you can now add to a portfolio on almost any platform better than Bitcoin for that. Yeah, I couldn't really say that better than you did. That's exactly the approach I've been trying more recently, I'll say, with money managers. It's the approach of saying, look, let's put aside. And it's funny, your friend eventually came around to it, which was watching Jerome Powell and more of the philosophy or the investment thesis side of things. But I like to just put that all aside and say, put aside all the politics, all the investment

thesis, whether it's money or not, and just look at it as a pure asset class. You are a money manager, maybe you have a fiduciary duty. And I always like to say, I'm going to invoke Charlie Munger, rest in peace. He hated Bitcoin. So hopefully he's not rolling over in his grave when I say this, but his famous phrase that I've always kept is invert, always invert. So instead of saying why you should own Bitcoin, why don't you tell me why you shouldn't own it? Because if I gave you a tear sheet of this thing with things you're talking about, Sharpe ratio, Sartino ratio, drawdowns, as you say, the only free lunch, the holy grail in finance is to find something that's truly diversified, non-correlated, and you increase your risk-adjusted returns. So you go down the math of it all.

And you say, why don't you own a little bit in your portfolio? Why is the correct number 0%? And it's increasingly hard for them to make that case. To be clear, it still might not be for some people and that's fine, but you have to have a reason. And so I think we're finally getting to the point in this market where people can no longer just brush it aside. They can't use some of the lazier excuses of it's illegal or it's used for nefarious purposes or compliance or I can't get exposure easily. All of those things have been taken out one by one. And now they need to really sit down and do their homework and say, wait a minute, how

am I going to tell my clients or my board or whoever why we don't own this, why we've missed out on this, why this doesn't make sense when all the numbers in the math show it at least clearly does historically. So again, I'm excited that we're finally at this point and you're finally starting to see some of those arguments of which exactly you laid out there. Listen, nobody in Bitcoin wants that correlation to be unhinging to the downside when everything's going up, but that's still the beauty of it. You want it to travel a different path regardless of what other assets are doing. I have to actually correct something really quick. For some reason, I read this as net inflows yesterday of 174 million. It was outflows, guys.

So just so that I happen to have had my producer say, hey, idiot, learn to read the words in and out. But I would love to talk about, I guess, specifically how Fidelity is now approaching this market into the future. We obviously have the ETH spot ETFs. You can't speak specifically about that, but we've seen all the filings. We know that Fidelity has amended a couple of times, putting in staking, taking it out, I think to get in line with the other applications, 4.7 million in seed capital, obviously an expectation that this is coming. We know that those products are coming. We've talked about it at length on this channel,

but what else is Fidelity focusing on? What are you excited about the coming months and years? We've seen obviously tokenization of real world assets be a huge narrative. I believe you guys are still mining, right? So where is the focus, I think, going to be once we have more of these products launched, which, to your point, was sort of giving the framework for the institutionalization that we needed? Yeah, so our focus continues to be on being the most secure platform for these digital assets. When I joined Fidelity,

of course, learned a little bit about the history. And in addition to them really believing in this space, what's also very appealing is it's a company that's over 75 years old. And I like to say it's a financial company, but you obviously don't survive that long in the financial space unless you're first and foremost, a risk management company. And so that's really the lens of a lot of what I see going on at Fidelity. I'm not going to speak for other people, but it's through that risk management lens. And so that's really what our sole focus has been on with a lot of these things, how to do it properly in the correct way from the ground up. For example, we built our own custody solution. So we control that entire stack. You've seen that custody solution now be the back end or powering all these other products

at Fidelity, whether it's going into the direct retail space, our direct institutional products, our exchange traded products. That's the bedrock. And so we continue to view custody as the bedrock, as the financial primitive that all these other things are built onto. And so from there, we'll continue to listen to our customers in the market of what they need, what they want, what we want to focus on, what we're happy to let other people kind of experiment in or dabble in, that sort of thing. But we'll continue to focus on some of

those highest opportunities there. And again, it's just more of a philosophy thing that I think really aligns with our customers as well. We believe Bitcoin and other digital assets are here to stay. They're here to hold, not necessarily trade so much. And so again, that aligns with the business model as well of being the premier custodian of these assets. And listen, as head of research, I have to assume that a big part of your job, as you said, is sort of interfacing with those customers and clients, right? And providing them the research, giving them the tools they need to make educated decisions on how to approach this asset class. How do you now explain to them Ethereum when we just had this long learning

curve about Bitcoin, but we had 10 months or seven months, whatever it was of hype in advance of the Bitcoin spot ETFs, really people believe there was a chance it was happening. Ethereum, it kind of happened overnight, right? So obviously the political winds changed, whatever explanation people want to give. So how do you now approach those with these products coming? How do you explain how it's different than Bitcoin, how they should approach it as a percentage of portfolio? Seems like you guys have some heavy lifting to do. Yeah, it's a great question. Something we're currently working on. We've been working a long time. We have some research out. Obviously, you're familiar with our research

of we're pretty adamant that we think Bitcoin is the aspiring form of money store of value. It's the most secure, it's the most decentralized. If you want to store trillions of dollars worth of wealth in it in something, that's probably what you want to go with. Now, on the other hand, you've got Ethereum. And personally, I'm very happy they switched to proof of stake and have made all these other upgrades and changes because they've differentiated themselves even more from Bitcoin. And I think that's important. So it's important for our investors to understand the differences, the trade-offs, and then to understand what those use cases are or could be. And again,

it's not necessarily a bad thing. It's not either or, either or as well, I should say. You can have both, right, for different reasons. And so, so far, you know, if you look at just the trading data and the investment data, ETH has been very correlated to Bitcoin. But it's increasingly clear that we could see a decoupling from that for a number of reasons. It's serving different use cases. It's trying to be this compute layer or this platform where everything else gets built on top of it, where people are going to be this compute layer or this platform where everything else gets built on top of it, where people are going to be doing more things, more transactions, more applications.

And again, not good or bad. It depends on what kind of investor you are. And so I think pragmatically, that's how you have to approach it. Now, of course, the big trade-off is they face a lot more competition in this space. And you've seen it. We've got an analyst on our team, Max, who follows us very closely. He's listening to every developer call. I look at his notes. And to me, what I read with these notes are they're actively discussing how they need to upgrade Ethereum, for example, in the next upgrade to compete with Solana. And so that's the big

difference there. There's just a lot more competition. They're trying to combat that with their different upgrades. And so that does increase your risk, in my opinion, that you now have to face that competition. But I think it's a great thing. It's a great thing to have these different markets, to have these different use cases and platforms. And we'll see who wins in terms of developers and users and applications and who wins in ultimately the marketplace here. And then you're going to have to explain to them the long tail of other assets once we get beyond Ethereum, right? So you've already now touched on Solana. That means you have to already discuss Solana because you have to differentiate Ethereum from that. Yes, exactly. I say on the research side, you know, even if we

don't have a XYZ token on our platform, That's no excuse for us to be ignorant of it. So we do investigate these things, look at them, compare and contrast them, try to get our clients to understand them. But it's still early, right? These are institutional clients. If you just think of it from a size perspective, they look at the market and between Bitcoin and ETH, that's 80 plus percent, especially if you strip out all the stable coins and stuff.

So it's just not to that level yet where it's on their radar or really worth their time. But that doesn't stop us on the research side from wanting to know about it. It's obviously very fascinating either way. Before I let you go, since we were talking about the market and price performance, obviously we've seen a lot of value accrue to Bitcoin because of the ETFs, but altcoins have underperformed. I think it's fair to say, right? And I don't know if you get questions about that because your clients probably aren't participating in that market. But what do you make of sort of older coins from past cycles that are still down 90, 95% from the highs?

Do you think that we get a ton of new demand into this space and those things actually get some attention? Or do you think we really have come to the Bitcoin and all the new stuff part of the future? Yeah, it's interesting. I think if you look at past cycles, Bitcoin usually leads and then the altcoins take off. This time we had Bitcoin lead. The altcoins, I think were starting to take off if my memory serves correctly Bitcoin lead. The altcoins, I think, were starting to take off, if my memory serves correctly. But now, of course, they've just absolutely taken it on the chin. I mean, it's terrible out there for them. So that's a little different this cycle. But also every cycle, you get a new wave of altcoins. So if you look at the top coins by market cap four or five

years ago, you compare them to the top coins of today. Besides Bitcoin and ETH, they're all different. And the top ones today are not the same as the ones that were four to five years ago. They didn't even exist. And so that tells you how much turnover and competition there is in this space. So with every wave of these alternative coins, you get completely different ones, which again, gets back to my point of how it's so hard in terms of competition to try to pick these. And so I think that will be the same. What is different though is of course, we haven't seen the same rise of them as before. Whether that's still coming, I think it could be just because we haven't entered that euphoric part of the bull market. Yeah. So we're halfway through the bull market, but that's not halfway through the returns historically. It's very asymmetric. Most of

the returns of every cycle come on the back half, exactly. And so that's where you could see these alternative coins come back and outperform. But your guess is probably as good as mine on that one. All right, guys. Well, everybody follow Chris below as his Twitter X, excuse me, X is down in the comments. I really appreciate the perspective and you sharing what you can. I would love to have you back more often. Keep up. The one thing I have sustained here in the comments is that everybody likes you, but they hate the way I'm pronouncing fidelity. It should be fidelity. Fair enough. Should should be fidelity fair enough should it be fidelity most people here say fidelity yeah fidelity okay i got it well you know i'm having one of those days chris i

appreciate you very much man thank you so much it was really a pleasure to speak with you my pleasure thank you uh fidelity i blew it but you know what, guys? Decentralized finance isn't DeFi. It's DeFi. We have DeFi, right? What am I missing? Whatever, man. We have a guy who comes on Spaces every day, and he's a traditional market guy. And he loves to like, he says, listen, I'm not a master in the Bitcoins and the cryptos, but I have my opinion. And he consistently calls Litecoin Litcoin. And it drives me nuts. And I pronounce, I say every time, dude, there's no such thing as Litecoin. Although, frankly, that would be a great meme for us to launch five minutes ago on Solana

Litecoin. But it's Litecoin. And now I'm getting fified over in the comments. My bad, guys. Fidelity. Fidelity. Andrew. Fidelity. now i'm getting five uh five over in the uh comments my bad guys fidelity fidelity andrew fidelity fidelity long fight f u h i'm gonna start calling a d father i am you sure or like like wi-fi we fee we fee, Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi. It is funny that at Fidelity, they call it Fidelity. I don't know.

That is strange. Internally, at the mothership, they call it Fidelity. I'm going to get in so much trouble for being out there. F-U-Delity, you know? Yeah. Speaking of institutions, you had quite a tweet tweet at 7 52 a.m in this morning yeah today update after several internal debates and delays morgan stanley moves closer to full availability for bitcoin etf sources quote advisors frustrated that client demand not being met beneath pwm level i'm surprised by that. Worst case scenario is September for full approval.

We won it earlier though. If I had to bet, I'd say August and probably late August, nothing meaningful ever gets done until the summer is over here. Great. Everybody's having the summer blues, not just us. Yeah. It's a typical wealth management story of story arc, right? That nothing gets done easily in these organizations. And you have to understand that Morgan Stanley is the biggest in terms of overall headcount and kind of global reach. And also in terms of the trillions that they manage on behalf of clients. So while at the same time, there's this yin and yang associated with the way Morgan Stanley does things. So they're also considered the more aggressive, more progressive organization versus, say, a Merrill Lynch or UBS. So they've been working internally to get this done for several months.

The sources that I have don't understand the internal pushback. You know, maybe there's a party inside of the executive community that makes these decisions. That's maybe, you know, maybe a little more anti crypto or Bitcoin for some reason. But I haven't been able to track that down. But it looks like August, September and that that tracks. I won't say who I talked to this morning on text back and forth, but let's just say he's at the top. He called Biden. Yeah, he's at the top. He's at the top.

Button. Button. Joe Button. Button. He's at the top of the heap at Morgan Stanley. And so, you know, the info is is is the real deal. And then I sort of went back channeled with some BlackRock folks and they're kind of hearing the same thing. So we're closer. We're getting there. But it also attracts with your thesis around, you know, over the summer that we just we just kind of tread water uh maybe a little bit lower

and and that's just been the case you know that's absolutely i hear you talking but all i can think now is how similar the word fidelity f-i-d-e then you put an l whatever is to biden b-i-d-e you put an n button it's not joe, there's a rapper named Joe Budden. Right? You're one of the biggest podcasts in the world. Budden, it should be Fidelity or Biden or Budden and Fidelity. I can't. I think your wife would agree with me that your ADD is in full effect right now.

Whatever. That you can't get off of fidelity. It's now a track in your mind. You can't get off of it. Dude, I said inflows instead of outflows. You know what I did today? What? Since we're going off the cuff, I was flipping through my tabs two minutes before the show,

and I clicked go live. That's why you had a new link. My show went live for like 13 seconds. i was looking around trying to do things then we had to come up with a new show link two minutes before the show like and everybody in the waiting room was like uh the show what's going on here where's scott i'm having a really really solid great day so anyways let's talk about arch public a bit obviously there were no no trades this week, but you've been having some awesome conversations. We're going to be doing some stuff at the Bitcoin conference. We've got a giveaway.

Doing some stuff at Bitcoin conference. I don't know if you can do it, but if you can pull up our ArchPublic Twitter, we just put a post up last night where we're giving away an industry pass. I don't know if people know what the industry pass is, but it's as close to the whale pass as you can get. So you get access to all three days at the Bitcoin conference. The industry day, I think is the best day. And the reason why it's the best day is there's not 30,000 people there at the venue. There's more like 3,000. So you really get the full effect of, and here's the thing with the industry day. It's so much more important this year than it has been in previous

years because Bitcoin has become a, you know, a trad fi asset and is led, the price has been led by what's going on in the traditional markets. So that day is going to be really, really interesting and important. So people go there and engage in that particular post because we want to give away, we want somebody to be able to come to that day and get a real understanding of the change and the difference in what Bitcoin is and what Bitcoin will continue to be across global markets for the foreseeable future. It's going to be a great day there for us to be involved. The other thing that I wanted to talk about today is today we're sending out an email to all of our customers, our concierge program customers, that we're releasing a new strategy category. And that is effectively a swing trade strategy. So these are trades that are taken over a day

or two or three, very different than our intraday strategy. We're starting with a NASDAQ strategy. And just to give you a little snippet of what the numbers look like inside that strategy, it's more than 100% per year in terms of returns, while at the same time, you're getting 72 plus percent win rate with this strategy. So the numbers are substantial as they generally are with our algorithms. And we just keep adding product to current customer portfolios in a way that people are very, very satisfied with. So good stuff happening, constant things happening. The other thing about our strategies that I think is important, we talk about risk, right? There are different ways to look at risk.

And part of our risk management sort of matrix is patience is just as important in performance as anything else. So sometimes we'll get feedback that says, ah, you know, I bought this algorithm, hasn't done anything in two weeks. Well, yes, it has. Guess what it has? It's prevented you from making bad decisions. Yes, yes. Well, yes, it has. Guess what it has done?

It's prevented you from making bad decisions. Yes, yes. Well, guess what it has done? Yeah, in a very specific way. Guess what it has not done? It has not lost you money. It has not lost you money. It has not taken an emotional trade and lost you money. That's how you lose money. You make emotional trades. So it's stopping you from being bored and pushing buttons that you shouldn't push. Does that work with my wife? No, especially after she sees this fidelity whole button thing. You can't stop me from getting bored and pushing her buttons unintentionally and getting in trouble no no you can't there there are no relationship

algorithms yet when we get there we'll let you know we'll probably make a pretty penny off of those i would i bet if you death scroll instagram you'll get thousands of videos telling you that there's now a relationship yeah so what else what else do you got for us today? Obviously, guys, you can look up the, I'll bring up the site as we always do, but Archpublic still crushing it. New algorithm there, sort of, as you said. The Morgan Stanley, is there anything else we might be missing before I let you go? Well, we are going to be really active at the Bitcoin conference. We grabbed a sponsorship so we could be heavily involved there. It's effectively going to be our next event that we do for our concierge program folks. So we'll

have customers there and do a dinner or two and spend some meaningful time. We'll spend some meaningful time with you, Scott. And don't want to completely lock us into this, but we're working really, really hard to be able to announce a Bitcoin focused algorithm at the Bitcoin conference. And without giving away too much information, this Bitcoin focused algorithm will not just be a trade Bitcoin and then, you know, generate profits. There's going to be several levels to this that not only trades Bitcoin and then generates profits, but also will automatically do things like DCA into not only spot Bitcoin, but also Bitcoin ETFs on a couple of different platforms. So an interesting and compelling

product associated with Bitcoin that we're going to bring to market. And we're hoping to announce it at the Bitcoin conference. Awesome. Yeah, I think we should. I don't want to start talking about things that we should be doing. But if you're going to be at a Bitcoin conference, I'm definitely there. We're going to be there doing some stuff with Kennedy and the street. And we should do a meet and greet for all these wonderful people in the audience guys come by we can high five I can take a selfie with you I know you don't want one with me but you can take one with Andrew yeah uh-huh no I do some things man listen we're gonna there's gonna be a specific booth at the Bitcoin conference to just

take pictures with my beard right right? It's only a beard thing. It has its own personality. There's a lot going on there. And at the Bitcoin conference, beard, that works, right? You mean the Bytecoin conference? The Bytecoin. That's right. God, I'm done, man. I'm done. Guys, Archpublic, we got it there, right? I'm going to show it to you once again. Sign up. It's making money. No new trades this week.

I'm sorry that we're only in like 20% plus profit in two months on this thing. A ton of you have signed up, and I've seen nothing but positive feedback. And I know, Andrew, you guys have been really working very hard to up the customer service and make sure that people are well, well taken care of. Yeah, great, great feedback on the customer service side. People love us. We have customer reviews on the site. You know, people send us texts and telling us they love us and what we do. It's a focus for us.

We're big believers in under-promise and over-deliver, and we do that in spades. So love our customers and love working through it with them. It's good times. Fidelity. All right, man. This is, you know, hyper-focused on my pronunciation today. It is what it is. Guys, thank you, Andrew. Having Chris was amazing this morning.

His name's Chris Kuyper. Maybe it should have been Chris Kupfer. Yeah, Chris Kuyper. If he's Chris Kuyper, he's Dutch. I know a lot about dutch folks i lived in grand right yeah it is a if you aren't if you aren't dutch you aren't much i bet if he was on the stream and he heard me say that he would understand i i could see he's in the background and he's laughing i don't know he ain't that much he knows i see him back there i'm glad he's stuck around all right chris i see you in the background this i'm not usually this scattered man to have him one of those days but it happens

he'll come back i think he'll come back right there's like uh it's gonna be like that scene in uh swingers where he calls the girl and then he hangs up and he keeps calling and leaving messages over and over again by the time he's like breaking up with man we're dating we're dating ourselves with that reference. We are dating ourselves. He was dating himself in that movie. Anyways, that's all I got for you guys. Check out Archpublic. Please follow Andrew, of course,

AP underscore Abacus on X, and Chris. They've been awesome. Probably see you on Spaces in about 30 minutes, right? Yep, you bet. Alright, guys. Thanks. Bye. right yep you bet see there all right guys thanks bye