The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Dead? Not So Fast! Ethereum's Big Boom Ahead! 🌪💥

Starting point is 00:00:00 Price actions and sentiment have been bearish, but I see nothing but tailwinds for the Bitcoin and crypto industries. We're likely to have an Ethereum spot ETF approved next week. Matt Siegel dropped a bomb here yesterday saying he thinks the Solana ETF could be on the table. That's Matt from VanEck. That was very surprising. We have a presidential debate tonight where the candidates are very likely to discuss Bitcoin and crypto. And we have breaking news that just came out. Coinbase is suing both the SEC and FDIC. I'd say that Simon Dixon and I have a lot to talk about today. Of course, Dan from Chart Guys on the back end to tell it what it means for the charts and the markets. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the

Starting point is 00:01:00 Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. As you can see here, Bitcoin relatively flat in the last 24 hours. Ethereum actually up. Let's blow that up a little bit. Ethereum actually up a bit, 2.22% in the last 24 hours. Has been outperforming Bitcoin since the news of the Ethereum spot ETF being approved. Bitcoin kind of went back to its lows from last month. Ethereum did not do the same. Solana up 5%. But generally, I think we still have a flat and choppy market. But as I said, I don't really see many headwinds for this market right now. I'm going to bring in Simon right now and we can unpack it all. But it seems like

Starting point is 00:01:39 all good news right now for Bitcoin and crypto. I mean, the regulatory environment has improved. As I said, we'll dig into it. Coinbase suing. Nobody's afraid of the SEC and the FDIC anymore, it seems. Both presidential candidates have been forced, or one of them has forced the other, I should say, to really start to come out and offer real opinions and ideas about the crypto industry. It seems that everything's thawing, but for some reason, people are depressed at $61,000 Bitcoin, which has to be a dream to you being here from the early days. Yeah. I think last time we were on the interview, Scott, we said that this halving cycle will be the political and geopolitical cycle. And I think it's going to play out that way.

Starting point is 00:02:33 I think Bitcoin is a political event. That was something we theorized on. I think it's always been political. Whenever you want to disrupt banking, and it was originally us versus the banks, that takes you through all the different disbelief, laughing. But now we're at the stage where the banks are on board and there is a Bitcoin lobby. And now the Bitcoin lobby is having its play on terms of getting votes and everything. So that cycle is definitely playing out. Now, we've got a much larger market cap up here. So gone are the days of when Waves Cafe says that we're putting a Bitcoin Robocoin ATM in our cafe and that shoots the price up. But I think there is a degree of manipulation in the market short term as there always has been. Never has ever changed. And so you've now got all the hedge funds and all the different game players that wish to play games with Bitcoin. And that's what we've always seen,

Starting point is 00:03:32 but now it's done at a larger scale. I love that you said it was always us versus the banks. The entire point of Bitcoin was to opt out of the system. Now it's kind of us and the banks versus the regulators and legislators, right? We had the rejection of SAB 121, of course, the veto by the Biden government, but that was effectively the big banking, big banks lobbying to say, we want a piece of this. We want to be able to custody these assets. We want to be able to participate. Sometimes I don't know if I should be cheering for or against all of this, but it seems like any adoption is a good thing. Yeah. And again, it is still us versus the banks, which has just changed to the self-custody versus custody argument. So you either leave your coins with Coinbase or

Starting point is 00:04:16 Fidelity and trade them through the stock market, or you have the ability to own your own money, spend your own money and get the benefit of any of the price action and inflation protection that comes from that. So I still think that argument is there. It's just a question of how many people want to custody it with the banks and how many people want to self-custody. And a lot larger number of people are probably going to choose custody over time. We now got over a million Bitcoins locked up in ETFs. And so we shall see how that trend works. But it doesn't really change anything because these are just Bitcoins held in custody with financial institutions. Now, if they can start doing stuff with those Bitcoins, then we can get a little bit more shenanigans.

Starting point is 00:05:01 But also that might be the very same thing that causes banks to blow up and create the next systemic crisis because shorting Bitcoin or borrowing client Bitcoin and all that type of stuff, it not only uproots FTX, but it also uproots financial institutions that try and do the same thing. The only difference is taxpayers are on the line and FDIC bails out. So there's not much difference. We just see the same trends. Yeah, I 100% agree. It's a good segue because the lack of ability of the largest financial institutions to custody Bitcoin was actually the reason that largely Coinbase outside of, I think, Fidelity and VanEck, ended up as the custodian for all of the Bitcoin spot ETFs that obviously pissed off the state streets and BNY melons of the world who wanted a piece of this. And now I think the irony of all

Starting point is 00:05:55 of this is you have Coinbase as the main custodian, but you have the SEC and regulators attacking Coinbase. Right. And then we get Coinbase effectively suing the SEC and FDIC and Freedom of Information Act dispute. For some context here, for people who don't know, this was just filed or at least announced today, an hour ago. But this is based on 2023 requests from Coinbase from the SEC under the Freedom of Information Act for clarity on Ethereum. So that was with the SEC. But I actually find the battle here against the FDIC more compelling because there were pause notices apparently by the FDIC against banks that were allowing crypto customers. We know Operation 2.0, we've talked about it endlessly. But those requests for information were denied and then upheld when we have freedom of information.

Starting point is 00:06:50 So now suing the banking regulator, I feel like, is a major escalation in this battle of Coinbase and our industry versus the government. Yeah, the ironies just don't really stop here in this, you know, circle of Bitcoin entering the political sphere. So firstly, you know, Biden was forced into accepting crypto payments, he used Coinbase, Coinbase commerce in order to accept his crypto payments at the same time, as the SEC versus Coinbase in determining whether they should be a securities exchange or not. I also know that they've actually got all the regulations in case it is a securities because at Bank to the Future, we actually sold our broker dealer and ATS to Coinbase in 2018. They just didn't know whether they could use it or not and so they have always always

Starting point is 00:07:47 and full disclosure i was a shareholder before they went public um your full disclosures are my favorite part of talking to you because i know that you were an investor in literally everything before it started when you regulated you got to disclose i'm like i mean yeah you have to disclose i love it and and and coinbase has always been the one that is on the conservative side between compliance and innovation. And in fact, to the detriment of their success, our industry has always ruthlessly given them lots of BS because they've always tried to stay on the right side of regulation. So it's so ironic that it was the one they come after. But obviously, they wanted to make a big splash. That has backfired. Coinbase decided to fight. And it turned out that that's the exact right decision, because now the political

Starting point is 00:08:35 side has gone in. This is all coming through. Now, at the same time, there was a bill around how banks will engage with Bitcoin as well. The issue is that obviously banks get to leverage up client money. And so they made it where you have to put Bitcoin on the bank's balance sheet rather than separating it in custody, which is anti-consumer protection. It's the exact opposite of what you should do. You should be having client Bitcoin in custody off balance sheet, but subject to audit requirements so that you know that the client Bitcoin is there and it's not And therefore, as the price goes up, you need to get more capital reserves. And they recently delayed Basel III. And so they were trying to make it where Bitcoin could essentially send a bank bankrupt by the price going up or down. And therefore, it's just useless. And so banks just don't engage,

Starting point is 00:09:46 they disengage. So the consequence of that is they don't do anything. Whereas Coinbase is in this legal battle. So they're kind of allowed to continue while they fight the battle. And so we end up with less competition, less consumer protection, and all of the Bitcoins from most of the ETFs all in one pocket. So everything that the regulator is doing is all about maximizing the fine and decreasing consumer protection, which is so typical of a large government that we're seeing right now, where everything has the opposite effect of the original intention. So we have more breaking news, which is crazy, Simon, because Matt did say this kind of yesterday, but we have VanEck filing for a Solana trust

Starting point is 00:10:34 just now with the SEC. Now, I am not a lawyer enough or a Balchunas and Seifert and Bloomberg enough for me to tell you if this is the same as an ETF or what it is. But literally, Matt Siegel, I said, there's no way we get a Solana ETF. And he kind of said, Scott, you might be surprised yesterday. I mean, I just I can't see it. We can't see it happening. I trust I can because we've had a number of companies that do like a GBTC, ETH, right, type thing. I think even Grayscale probably has these,

Starting point is 00:11:05 but still seems to be pretty big news. Yeah. So this is the slippery slope that I guess the SEC was trying to prevent happening whether they delayed approving the Bitcoin ETF. Unbelievably, Scott, it's all happened this year. Can you believe this only just started? It's only January. So obviously, they got forced into, thanks to the judicial system, approving the Bitcoin ETF. Then we got this surprise where we thought, okay, let's let the election cycle run through. It looks like the SEC is coming after ETH as a security. That relates to the Coinbase freedom of information, because obviously they were trying to get ahead of that. They wanted to offer ETH staking as a service. They didn't know whether it was a security, whether it's not.

Starting point is 00:11:54 So they make assumptions. They acquire the licenses that they need. You know, this is all regulatory uncertainty. This isn't bad actors. And then you get the surprise ETH ETF as a result of RFK saying, I want to support Bitcoin. Then Trump coming out saying, I support crypto. And then Biden having to react and the anti-Elizabeth Warren effect. And so the whole political process fast-tracked, embarrassing the SEC, making it look like they're not focused on consumer protection,

Starting point is 00:12:24 but they're actually larger political forces that are determining what needs to be protected or not. And now if we get the Solana, it pushes them further, further down. What is a security? What's not a security? And I think in the end, this drives to what the SEC should have done in the first place, rather than the CFT trying to get the fines from all the Bitcoin companies and the SEC trying to get all the fines from the Bitcoin companies and the IRS trying to get all the tax by not classifying these things in the way that they should be, you now need a virtual asset service provider regime. The US needs to do what the rest of the world is doing. And then the market can open up and the SEC can get focused on disclosures. The virtual asset side can get focused on preventing money laundering.

Starting point is 00:13:11 The IRS can focus on tax collection and the industry can just move forward. And if we have a Solana ETF, it's under a position of certainty with a good regulatory regime. And the US can just get on with not just being the best capital markets in the world, but also have a race of being the best virtual asset market in the world. Yeah, I can't wait to get some clarity on whether this is a differentiated trust in ETF. I have a feeling that it is, but it's going to be interesting to see this unpack. But listen, in context of all of this, we have to talk about the fact, my least favorite thing to talk about, politics, that we're going to have a very early in the cycle presidential debate tonight. I don't remember them usually happening in June.

Starting point is 00:13:53 I remember it'd be a September, October thing, but maybe my memory doesn't serve me right. And Trump has forced crypto and Bitcoin onto the docket. I think betting markets have it at like a 40% chance that Bitcoin or crypto are mentioned by Trump specifically. I think it's a better chance than that. I think that Trump realizes the reason that he's done this in the first place is because he knows it's a place he can get disproportionate attention and voters where Biden has gone completely the other way. I mean, do you think we're going to hear them talking about this tonight? And if so, do you think it will be like prepared, prepped? Or do you think that Trump will go off the cuff and put Biden on the spot? Because I think that would be

Starting point is 00:14:35 the much more entertaining outcome. Yeah, I think if Bitcoin or crypto comes up, more likely crypto than Bitcoin, I reckon. But if crypto does come up, I think it's about trying to embarrass Biden. And so he must have been reading like crazy or he must have been prepped like crazy. And it's a difficult subject. And if you're coming into this from scratch, we saw when RFK joined Bitcoin Miami last year, he kind of said some of the cringy things, but half right. He said, like, let's put the whole government on the blockchain, you know, kind of typical things that you would say if you just find out what this industry is, but then

Starting point is 00:15:15 are not really involved in it. So I think it's about probably embarrassing Biden. That's why I think it will come up. I mean, there's so many major issues that so many Americans care about. But the real question is, and the interesting part of this, is that Bitcoin has kind of formed a non-traditional lobby, which is slightly different. So a normal lobby is you have very wealthy special interests like a defense or a farmer industry. And then they represent a very small closed circle with vast wealth in order to control power.

Starting point is 00:15:55 Now with the Bitcoin lobby, it's slightly different. While you do have some that have engaged in that process, like the Winklevoss or contributing a million to the Trump campaign and saying they're going to vote for him in November. There is a slight different with the Bitcoin lobby. The Bitcoin lobby also consists of all the people that own Bitcoin and are not using it to exert political influence, but they're using it as their vote. And so if there is, I don't know the exact number, but if 50 million Americans have Coinbase accounts and ETFs and Bitcoin exposure, then it's sensible to take your 350 million and a 50 million population is a decider for the many different people. And we are an incredibly, you know, rabid community, as it were, with so many, you know, one policy voters, that it is, they can't ignore it anymore. So let's see if they do bring it up. But I think the game is to just embarrass Biden into saying

Starting point is 00:16:58 something stupid, that makes it look like he doesn't really understand this industry. Not that I think Trump understands it, but his family. But nobody cares if he understands it. That's the difference. Trump is expected to say wild things and it makes people laugh. Biden would be expected, I think, to have a defensible position, especially after the White House's attack on the industry for effectively three years right now. So this is one of those situations I think that Trump loves where he can be all offense and put

Starting point is 00:17:31 somebody who would have a very hard time defending what they've done the last three years. Because no matter what, listen, Biden apparently bringing on a more pro-crypto advisor that was there before seemingly thawing against the industry. Pantera said that they've spoken. It seems like the White House is taking a general interest. But we have three years of attacks to point at. So even if they say, hey, we're thawing now, Trump would have a field day pointing out all the things that have actually happened and not just the things that we're hearing in rumor, including SAB 121 just weeks ago. I mean, if Biden really wanted to thaw and the White House wanted to change their policy, they would have not vetoed something that

Starting point is 00:18:09 had bipartisan support. Yeah, we had the veto. We did get the slightly Bitcoin news, and I don't know if it was good timing, bad timing, or political, but the Assange thing is, I think, a Bitcoin story. We've got Russell Brick and whatever. Snowden is, I think, still a slight Bitcoin story as well. But I think the interesting thing here is if you look at the Bitcoin lobby consists of those that own Bitcoin, which is all voters, a larger group of people. And they typically, I think, are all on board with Trump, whether they love Trump or hate Trump. They think Trump is going to be better for Bitcoin than Biden. That's no doubt. And then you've got the people that historically would vote Democratic Party, which is the Silicon Valley lobby. So then you get the large VCs and Silicon

Starting point is 00:19:04 Valley companies trying to say, yeah, Biden's been doing good things, even though they know he hasn't, because you've got these different types of control structures fighting out in real time. And it's just great to watch, interesting to watch. Yeah, it is interesting. And listen, we have all this kind of breaking news, Solana, obviously the Coinbase suit, but the thing that seems to be going under discussed, and I've been saying this for a few days, the Ethereum spot ETF is likely to launch next week. I'm assuming it was not on your bingo card that these would get approved. They certainly were not on mine. It

Starting point is 00:19:38 seemed we had no indication that that was going to happen. We thought it would be kicked down the road. We know VanEck has now started the fee wars, saying they're going to go for a 0% fee. Matt actually broke that down yesterday, said, listen, we're going to buy a ton of spot Ethereum and hope that our 0% fees are part of the rising tide for Ethereum in general. And that's how we're going to play it, which I thought was really interesting. And we have, I think, a wide swath of expectations as to how these will do. I mean, Galaxy is saying 5 billion of net inflows in the first five months. That would be pretty exceptional.

Starting point is 00:20:13 Net inflows for the Bitcoin spot ETFs are about 12 right now, right? So obviously, the market cap is almost 60, but 12 for the net inflows when you account for GBTC. I mean, do you think these things are going to be successful? I'm skeptical. Like, I was skeptical of the Bitcoin spot ETFs too. I just think there's a much longer learning curve for Ethereum and explaining to these advisors who just are getting comfortable with Bitcoin. And also, I just think that it's less of a mainstream product, Ethereum itself than Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:20:39 right now. Yeah. So if we remember the belief flow, as it were, once Bitcoin was approved, I think we all were talking about right now all the speculation moves to the ETF. And we were all expecting that to happen. Then they had all the wave of lawsuits against ConsenSys and Uniswap and the Ethereum Foundation. And then everyone, the sentiment changed to no chance this year before an election. And then there was a rapid change in policy that caught all of us off guard.

Starting point is 00:21:19 That led to a little bit of a pump on the ETH to Bitcoin price. And now it turns out that these things are imminent and just around the corner. So now the news flow kind of moves towards how successful it can be relative to a Bitcoin ETF. The Bitcoin ETF beat all of our expectations in terms of the first three months. We were all trying to be very conservative, and then it was just wildly successful, even if we thought it would still try and hold back your expectations. I don't think we have the same thing with ETH. ETH has a few differences. Firstly, it's up to the narrative that the people are going to be selling. To me, the best narrative for Ethereum and the way I use Ethereum is to stake it and convert the stake into

Starting point is 00:22:06 Bitcoin. That's my main use case. So I use it as a higher risk beta and a way of earning more Bitcoin every week or every single week. But you can't do that with an ETF. So the narrative of Bitcoin's growth like shares to Ethereum's income like debt, even though that's a strange narrative, but one that sometimes could prevail. So then what is the next narrative? Well, is it like the internet, Web3, blockchain, DeFi, NFTs, real world assets? that's about 15 different types of incredibly strange things to explain to a TradFi investor. So maybe the narrative is just diversification. So then you think about, well, what would one diversify? They're already starting of thinking of having a small allocation to Bitcoin. And then they're thinking a small allocation from Bitcoin to ETH? Does that

Starting point is 00:23:06 increase their crypto exposure, as it were? Right, are they going to come out of the Bitcoin spot ETFs? Right. Are they going to take some of the money they have for crypto and take 20% of that and put it into Ethereum instead of Bitcoin so they can diversify? Or does the allocation go up 25%, right? And they include ETH. I think that's a great question. In the meantime, I mean, the bearish stories that we have right now, I would say are three with selling pressure on the market. I personally will go out there and say, I don't think it's a big deal. I've said it over and over again. But we have Mt. Gox, obviously, we had that news released this week. We have the German government moving millions of Bitcoin to

Starting point is 00:23:44 exchanges. It's a couple billion in total, but it's been 20, 30 million at a time. I mean, we all know that's nothing on any given day for the market. But of course, U.S. has sent 240 million worth of Silk Road related Bitcoin to Coinbase. It seems like they're all good traders, actually, and just want to sell at 60 instead of 20 right but uh it seems like this is at least uh some discussable selling pressure for the market coming yeah it's a lot of selling pressure um whether this is all done now through otc trades direct to etfs through the fidelity and coinbase um otc desks um which is what I imagine it would be, or whether they're

Starting point is 00:24:27 actually putting these things on exchanges, which would just be a really strange thing to do. So in terms of impact on price, obviously they're doing an OTC, but then the OTC desk is working the orders. You would have thought at this stage, you could just match up some pretty sizable institutions without having to interfere in the market. But yeah, it's a lot of selling pressure. So going through them all, you've got the German government. Obviously, look, governments just, again, the inefficiencies of governments. Imagine having the ability to print euros and then you decide with your Bitcoin that you want to buy some euros.

Starting point is 00:25:10 How these decisions are made is just baffles my mind. Same with the US government. I can only say it's just disjointed governments that have their own budgets or something. But we think of them as one thing and it's just a crazy decision. I don't know why they don't just put it on their central bank's balance sheet and print off some euros or print off some dollars and make that part of their reserve asset. That's what I would do if I were part of the Federal Reserve or the ECB. And yeah, you've got the selling pressure from Mt. Gawks. Mt. Gawks is less scary than it initially seems to be because some of the largest holders are like public creditors that are known like Jesse Powell.

Starting point is 00:25:52 I don't think the founder of Kraken is going to need to sell some Bitcoin. Roger Ver, he recently got arrested for tax, but he's got a lot of his Bitcoin. And then also the claims sellers. Who's the big one? I've forgotten the name. For which? Who am I thinking? Which one? I was asking. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:26:18 I'm testing you. All right. Yeah, I've forgotten the name. But there's a big claims buyer. Falcon, wasn't it? Yeah, Falcon X, maybe. Is that who you're talking about? I don't know. I actually don't know. Yeah. name um but there's a big uh claims buyer i know it's falcon wasn't it oh yeah falcon x maybe is that who you're talking about i don't know i actually don't know yeah anyways uh i'll tweet it out uh it's just getting a bit of brain freeze um yeah so i don't think there's a massive amount

Starting point is 00:26:37 of selling pressure there i think most people would have probably more conviction today in Bitcoin than they had in 2014, is my guess. There'll obviously be a bunch of retail that's going to be distributed through PayPal and Coinbase having been involved in a bankruptcy that distributes through PayPal and Coinbase. That normally takes about, I mean, I was meant to receive my funds in January. I still haven't received my funds today.

Starting point is 00:27:04 So that can take like five to six months. So there's a bit of a lag on these. But yeah, I think governments have some selling pressure. We're into summer. We had the halving slightly early in terms of its pump because of ETFs. So I just think we're a business as usual, a quiet summer, a trickle down. And then we enter into an interesting new cycle. Yeah. Thank you so much, Simon.

Starting point is 00:27:33 Always appreciate the insight. Great. I agree with you. I think things are going to ramp up massively and all these tailwinds are going to catch up to the industry at the exact time that they should. Guys, you can always follow Simon, Simon Dixon, Twit on X. You got to change it to Simon Dixon X now that they rug pulled the

Starting point is 00:27:49 name Twitter. You know, one day you're going to have to do that. Sorry to tell you. Are you going to be on spaces today? Cause we're going to unpack all of this. Oh yeah. I'll see if I can make it. Thanks for having me Scott. See you in about 45 minutes. Thank you, Simon. Guys. So listen, we have Eric Balchunas. When I need an answer for about an ETF, looks like VanEck just filed for a Solana ETF. So to be clear, this doesn't mean they get approved. But VanEck, obviously, as Matthew Siegel unpacked here yesterday, I think that there's enough reason now to put pressure and file for these. I was totally wrong. I did not think that these were going to be on the docket at all. Jeff says, Falcon X, Elon Musk on the brain. No, dude, Falcon X is one of the largest prime brokers in crypto. In case you're wondering. There it is, right? I was looking it up. Yeah, I mean, I'm kind of stunned. I can't believe that we basically broke it yesterday here on this show because we happen to have Matt Siegel from VanEck. We were trying to get him. He said he'll probably make it to spaces, but I couldn't make it. I just wanted him to come on for five minutes and explain

Starting point is 00:28:54 himself to me. He could have told me this yesterday, man. Instead of being vague, he could have just said, dude, we're filing it tomorrow, man. And then that would have probably been insider information everyone would have bought solana which is now uh a big big big on the day all right well we will unpack a lot more of this obviously on spaces later but now i got dan well i mean solana's starting to fly no surprise there i guess huh yeah it's uh it's bouncing right at its weekly support. And this is a nice little boost to ensure that that holds at least for the time being. Yeah, so let's look at the charts right now. Firstly, we always start at Bitcoin. Let's do that. I think we're right we hold support. And, you know, Sol's doing the same thing. It's just a much stronger weekly candle with this big push right now. There's your hourly candle on that headline. So solid move, but it's still that same tightening weekly range. And we're going to be looking for that to tighten up here into and perhaps through a good bit of July. But a nice boost and definitely a good headline. And, you know, even in I've got my

Starting point is 00:30:04 chat room open and even people in the stock chat room are talking about this now. So it's definitely making its rounds. Yeah, so I mean, we can't really unpack the odds of it happening. We can just look at the charts for now. So I would imagine we're gonna continue

Starting point is 00:30:20 to see if you follow through here for Solana. Yeah, we got a lot of space now. This is a move straight off of the low, four green days in a row. And so when it tops out, we've got to confirm that daily uptrend, but we can now assume because of this most recent push up that a daily higher low will be the most likely result of that consolidation. And what a conservative bull does is rather than buying the fear, if you don't want to be aggressive, you say, okay, bulls are now proving something to me. I look to buy the next higher low. And that's a more conservative approach. And it definitely gives you, you know, you have less risk, but also less reward, but it at least gives you some confidence that a temporary bottom has

Starting point is 00:31:00 been set now. What's the top green, uh, MA or EMA on your chart? I've got the EMA 12 and 26 here. 12 and 26. Okay. Yeah. Just curious which it was kind of breaking through there as I was looking at that. I mean, I think Solana is a no brainer here, but what do I know? So what else? I mean, before this news broke, how are you looking at this market today? So back to Bitcoin, looking okay. We pulled back into some fear, daily oversold conditions. What we have to see now happen for Bitcoin is confirm this 12-hour uptrend. So initial nice bounce, little higher low, and got to get over that resistance. I personally reloaded some positions. After that hard rejection at 72,000. I exited some of my IBIT. I do trade it in my stock account. So this

Starting point is 00:31:48 big red day was my red flag. And now again, fear just selling into some rejection and then buying some fear, knowing that we have a base of support just under 60,000. So again, we've been talking about it for months, but it is continuing to shape up like the possibility of a sideways summer. And if we can confirm some of those shorter term uptrends, a 12 hour, a daily uptrend, we'll look for a weekly bounce. It's possible we set that weekly lower high. Next thing you know, we're towards the end of July and still pretty sideways, which again, sideways consolidation isn't a bad thing.

Starting point is 00:32:19 You've been saying that a whole bunch, especially when you go up this much. What you want to see sideways is much better than we're tracing 50%. So if we hold sideways and just tighten up, there is nothing wrong with that whatsoever. So ideal world, hold this recent low, bounce back up towards the mid to upper 60,000s, and we'll revisit things in a couple of weeks. Yeah. I mean, meanwhile, back at the ranch and legacy markets, I'm clicking through right now. I mean, Amazon made a new fresh all-time high yesterday, making another all-time high today. SPX green. I mean, it seems all systems go right now for markets. Crypto's boring, but the stock market is anything but. The big question for me is where does money go when NVDA tops out? And it's going to big tech.

Starting point is 00:33:10 It's going to Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. And yesterday, like you said, Amazon, Microsoft, Google all hit all time highs yesterday. And so it's a good sign that when the most important individual stock in the market sells off and it dropped 18% from euphoria in three days, that it doesn't take the market with it. There is that rotation still going on and it is keeping things healthy at this point. And so again, there is still no red flags. And one thing that I want to see from here, if you're a bull stocks or metals or crypto, you want to see the dollar weaken. And right now I'm watching this dollar

Starting point is 00:33:45 potential 12 hour rising wedge. And if you're a bull, any of those things, you really want to see this break bear. And this is the weekly chart here. And if that 12 hour breaks bear, it would be a lower high here. And then we would look for the dollar to tighten up. And there's not a direct tick for tick inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar. But when you zoom out and you look at the longer term timeframes like the weekly, it definitely coincides with an inverse relationship. And so you want to see that dollar set that weekly lower high, which would increase the probabilities that Bitcoin sets that weekly higher low.

Starting point is 00:34:19 So I always encourage people to just keep an eye on it. Don't be making day today decisions based on the dollar, but it could be just one of the little puzzle pieces that helps formulate probabilities as to what the most likely scenarios are. You're really smart. I didn't think about the fact. I just didn't think about the fact that NVIDIA's topping

Starting point is 00:34:38 was sending that money into the other big tech names, which actually continue to make highs, which really is encouraging because it means money is not leaving the market. It's just not a perspective that I had really considered. Because listen, if people were in fear, they would just cash out, Nvidia, crash everything, get the hell out of the way. They're just saying, this is like crypto people. They're saying, what's the next trade, man? I'm high. I'm high. What's my next hit? That's exactly what it is. I made a post on Twitter yesterday talking about how I'm such a nerd because I love watching where money is rotating. And it was so clear what was going

Starting point is 00:35:12 on yesterday. And now it's still following through again today. And again, just a note that I've said multiple times on your show here, there is no fear in the market unless QQQ, XLF, XLV all are hitting the low of the day at the same time. That tells you money's leaving the market. That's the only time the VIX will spike in any meaningful way. If that's not happening, it's rotating to one of the major sectors. And it's just been a beautiful rotation that's been going on the last year and a half from those 2022 lows. And actually, I mean, NVIDIA is bouncing back today i mean it was a it was a pretty aggressive and quick sell-off but like when you zoom out on the chart this is a flip

Starting point is 00:35:51 yeah i'm scouting scouting a daily lower high but you know again just looking to tighten up sideways i mean we did that there's we've had plenty of periods of sideways consolidation after massive euphoria and uh again nothing wrong with sideways consolidation after massive euphoria. And again, nothing wrong with sideways consolidation after a monster move. I'm focusing on ETH, obviously, into the... Oh, I'm trying to break bull. This is a daily falling wedge that I'm keeping an eye on. I bought some ETH in the fear on that flush a few days ago. And again, my thesis is, if ETH BTC is ever going to break this downtrending resistance line that we've been watching, get over this 5,744 level,

Starting point is 00:36:33 that price point, and confirm the first weekly uptrend in over a year. And that is my thesis for me focusing on ETH here. If there's ever a time to do it with headline tailwinds, this is the time to do it with headline tailwinds, this is the time to do it. So nice to see that it is shaping up in the sense that it's the strongest it's been in a month and trying to get that move, but obviously paying extra attention over the next couple of weeks. Crazy. Yeah. I mean, this market should, if it wasn't summer after the halving, like, I mean, Solana ETF, ETH ETF, presidential debate, like we should be absolutely pumping right now. And tech going up. And with that note, as a trader, when I watch the presidential debate, I look for themes.

Starting point is 00:37:18 And obviously, Trump's got the crypto theme. Biden's got the cannabis theme. And it's almost like they're choosing different ways to go after a similar demographic. I imagine there's a ton of overlap there. And I just saw Biden, the campaign is buying some ads now for cannabis where they're pointing out like, hey, Trump's going to take your medical cannabis rights away. And he's trying to play that card. But it's just interesting as a trader where then you know what their stances are. Back in four years ago, it was solar and cannabis and all these things that were running because Biden won. And so I like to watch and say, okay, as the polls determine what's more likely, is Trump or Biden going to win?

Starting point is 00:37:56 That's how you can focus a bit on sectors in terms of what you're looking to trade. And so it's the kind of thing where if Biden is winning, the cannabis sector probably has a little bit of a tailwind. But if he starts to fall behind in the polls, maybe it's time to short cannabis. And so when I'm watching the debate, as I'm grinding my teeth, I view it through a trader's perspective and just say, what sector is he talking about? And then just using that narrative, knowing that the second half of this year, those narratives on these debates and through into the election are going to have significant impacts on price.

Starting point is 00:38:32 As I'm removing the pencils from my eye during the debate that I've stabbed myself with because I'm torturing myself, I consider what it means for markets. What else you got up there? Tesla, we talked about it, finally got it. So this is an example. I tried to take Tesla long for a swing. My thesis was three-month timeframe, big picture, three-month chart is going to form the most likely scenarios, a high or low to keep tightening up. This is a four-year pattern in the

Starting point is 00:39:00 making. And so I'm scouting that high or low. I tried three times in the last few weeks to long. I tried here, stop out my remaining position. I try here, stop out my remaining position. The key is if you keep your losses small, I stopped out breaking in three times, then you can keep trying. If you're taking loss after loss after loss, you don't want to keep trying. That's telling you you're doing the wrong thing. You're just grinding away. Yes. But if you keep the losses small, what's the harm in trying again? If it's a break, even stop out, all right, I'll try again tomorrow. And so yesterday finally paid off for a big win. And this is just a good example of just a volume profile analysis is something that some of my friend, trader friends and team members use. And so I've been paying attention to it more, but it's just a perfect example of previous resistance acting

Starting point is 00:39:50 as support here where the bulls struggled at 180 to 182 for so long, just reject, reject, reject, reject. Then we get above it and then we hold, hold, hold. And it was just a tightening, it's clear the scribbles, a tightening range that just finally broke bull. And so you identify the tightening ranges, you know, volatility is coming when this range breaks, you're ready for it. And then depending on whichever direction it goes, you go in that direction. And fortunately the bulls got their win here. So I'm looking for 200 plus in this swing position. And again, you talk about tightening ranges. We're going to be talking about this Tesla pattern probably into the Q4, maybe Q1 2025. But when this four to five year pattern breaks, it's going to

Starting point is 00:40:33 give us a ton of information in terms to what to look for for the next year of Tesla after that break happens. So definitely keep that long-term chart on watch. And there's a couple other airline sector jets. It's been since the CBD dump. I don't say that the word because the YouTube Al goes get us, but it's just been tight enough. Never say COVID. But yeah, just watch those long-term tightening ranges. When they break, you look for the follow through and you just got to be patient.

Starting point is 00:41:03 You just, you You just write it down and check on it every few days, every few weeks, whatever. But those are two long-term patterns to keep an eye on. Love it. I have a really important question before I let you go. You're done, right? That's all the charts you want to look at? That's all I got. Yep. How do you pronounce this word? Fidelity. Fidelity. I said fidelity. I got roasted and then a guy from fidelity told me it was fidelity. It's been stuck in my mind all week and literally every

Starting point is 00:41:30 person has said fidelity. You got to move down south. Remember that movie High Fidelity when we were, it was like. If you move down south, it's finance and there's, you got the accent that can maybe. But it can also be finance. I guess it depends on which syllable you give the emphasis. But okay, also be finance. I guess it depends on which syllable you give the emphasis.

Starting point is 00:41:46 But okay, it's Fidelity. I mean, I know it's Fidelity, but now I just have to ask people. I should have asked them. Guys, follow chart, guys. I think it's going to be a really interesting week, man. I feel like we should almost live stream the debates or something on Spaces or here and just do a shot every time they say Bitcoin. Maybe we'll get to do a lot of shots. Maybe we won't. It's one of those things. You don't even know if you're going

Starting point is 00:42:09 to get drunk. I think they're going to mention it. I'm hopeful. I would assume so. Yeah. All right, man. We'll see. All right, guys, I got to go prepare for this Twitter spaces in 30 minutes, which is going to be ridiculous. We were just preparing a Coinbase getting sued thing, and now it's a Solana ETF thing, and there's a lot. So hopefully unpack all the things that we kind of superficially got into here. Dan, thank you so much. Simon was amazing. Guys, follow both of them.

Starting point is 00:42:33 That's all we got. See you next week, man. Bye. See you. Let's go.

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