The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Dump: The Perfect Time To Buy Bitcoin & Altcoins?

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

Bitcoin and broad crypto markets are going through a massive sell-off. What caused it and when is the best time to buy crypto? I am joined by Aya Kantorovich, Co-Founder & Co-CEO of August, institutional grade platform for crypto. Aya Kantorovich: https://x.com/aya_kantor In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin continues its sell-off trading now below $92,000. Many pointing to news that the Department of Justice of the United States of America is about to sell off $6.something-or-other billion worth of seized Silk Road Bitcoin. It's all over. The bear market is here. Influencers saying that we have a 75 to 81.39 chance that the top is in pack it in I don't think so guys and I have a feeling that my guest today I can twervich also agrees that maybe it's not quite over yet for this crypto cycle we're going to talk about all of that and more and of course we've got Dan from chart

guys on the back half you guys do not want to miss this one let's go let's go what is up everybody i'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe and hit that like button right down below so that you will always know when I'm live. You don't ever have to sleep. You don't ever have to eat. You can just watch my channel all the time, all the time. I tried to tell my wife once to watch my channel, and I found out she never watches anything that i do it's a joke i was like hey did you see my podcast with such no no nothing to do uh my kid watched once though and uh hated it and never watched again but i have a feeling that i

do you ever watch you never watch it i do i do but i have the same i have the same situation with my i mean my parents still think I work in the Bitcoin. So, you know, yeah, the Bitcoin. It's been almost 10 years, but it's fine. It's fine. We'll figure it out one day. Do they ever tell you to go ask the CEO of the Bitcoin for a raise? Yeah, I've gotten some weird family questions. But, you know, as long as we're huddling, it's good. I actually I have 100k Bitcoin hat that I was gonna wear. But you know, this this week, this week, this week's flush has has not been as positive. So next time, you literally could have worn it on Monday. But then people would have clipped us and been like, Oh, look at these idiots. I wear a Bitcoin hat today. I got I got this for Christmas for my wife. It looks great. Thank you. Thank you. You know,

it's hard to find the hat. I have a very strange head. So here we are. But speaking of, you know, strange things, we had, like I said, kind of this optimism on Monday that everything was good. First day back, $102,000 Bitcoin celebration. Here we are sub 92,000, another $10,000 drop. Crazy in a week, big wipe out, obviously, of leverage and a whole lot of fun. I mean, maybe I'll just bring this up right now so we can get it out of the way. DOJ cleared to sell $6.5 billion in Bitcoin seized from Silk Road. So basically, there was a multi-year ownership dispute over these specific Bitcoins from a company called Battleborn. And they were

basically claiming that it was part of their bankruptcy estate. They should come back. Of course, they now lost, which gives the DOJ clearance to sell these Bitcoin, which, of course, means that people have to panic and freak out and think that it's all over, but not a piece of this is not huge news to me. I don't know. Maybe I'm immune. But does this seem like it seems like noise? Yeah, I would agree.

I think, like, without question, this has been priced in. To your point, you know, we've been talking about these Silk Road assets for years. You know, it's something that the DOJ has to sell. It has to sell any asset, whether it's Bitcoin or cash or, you know, real estate, whatever it might be, it has to get that off the books. So, you know, obviously the timing isn't ideal. They're going to probably try to push this before the inauguration, which is not surprising, but I think, you know, what was a bigger piece to your point in terms of how fast the markets move, there was so much leverage coming in on Monday. It was, you know, we, the bounce up, although we felt really great going into it, I think everyone was like, whoa, that happened too fast. And so, you know, the minute you had macro come in, and you had a macro print this week, and then macro started to, you know, the good news basically

equaled bad news. You had strong economic data. People didn't feel as strongly about, you know, a Fed rate cut anymore. You had job openings rise to a six month high. And so all of that didn't look so good. And it caused a lot of that volatility down. So I think that was kind of the larger picture here. To your point, the DOJ piece, it doesn't look good. It doesn't feel good, but it's been priced in. We've been talking about it for years.

Yeah, I think you nailed the real story here, which is that we're just kind of risk off, right? And the more the ETFs come in, I do believe that Bitcoin itself is largely an uncorrelated asset. But we know that in moments like these, when everything sells off, Bitcoin is just a higher beta asset that sells off even harder, especially after hours and on weekends. I mean, the market's not even open today. And look what's happening. We can't blame the stock market today. Because thanks to Jimmy Carter, we have to blame ourselves. But I do think that this is just a lot of uncertainty ahead of an inauguration and regime change and kind of

strange economic data, I'll say. We're still in that place where good news is bad news and bad news is good news and nothing seems to make much sense to me. But that said, they may have sold some of this. We don't really know. And we watched the market absorb what, like $12, $13 billion worth of GBTC Bitcoin when the ETFs were launched? Exactly. Exactly. Look, we've been here, we've done that. And I think the bigger story is what you mentioned, right? The ETF inflows are very optimistic. People just aren't talking about that as much. But we saw $1.9 billion already come in even more this year. So we saw on Jan 3rd, Jan 6th, that was for Bitcoin. We saw $2 billion in ETH ETF flows come in in December. I mean,

these are big numbers. And if you think about the investment committee of the organizations that are going out and buying these, pension funds, think about some of the states in the US that are now using Bitcoin as a reserve asset. It takes months, sometimes years to sit down and say, all right, we're gonna make this decision. Here's how much we're gonna allocate and then go out and buy it.

So the underlying is that that momentum flow is still very much happening. But yeah, I would say, you know, from the trading perspective, everyone's pretty much long vol at this point through end of Jan. You know, we have a lot of things outside of the inauguration. You also have a bunch of token unlocks happening. You have, you know, an ENA unlock in March. You have an ONDO unlock in Jan. The ONDO one is going to be you know the biggest unlock um and so it's going to be interesting to see some of that all coin volatility but historically i would say just everyone long fall into the inauguration yeah i want to dig deeper into the weeds there beyond bitcoin obviously i mean you're kind of a d5 expert obviously

launching d5 platforms very deep in the weeds, which we can talk about. Actually, I know Upshift is coming soon and talk about what you're doing in August. But we always have unlocks. These are huge unlocks, but the whole fall, all I heard was unlocks too. And it's kind of the old bullish unlock meme. We're going to have never-ending supply of altcoins into this market at this point. There's never going to be a time, in my opinion, when we don't have that, especially when half the projects that we're going to launch are still waiting for ideal market conditions. Yeah, 100%. And I mean, now, you know, now the trend is, you know, before was all the meme coin stuff happening on chain. Now it's the ai agents um and this you know i would say even the ai agents

are kind of replacing the meme coins because when you have like ai xbt tweeting automatically um in an autonomous manner that kind of replaces the meme coin and that token is done tremendously well and so you know when the market went sideways in december we were seeing a lot of the ai tokens perform really well. Virtuals, obviously, is another one that's done tremendously well. And so we'll continue to see that volatility. But what's nice about all of this, going back to DeFi, is that there is a direct correlation with stablecoins. And you know, everyone talks about stablecoins, it's a huge theme, very institutionalized. But as more of these things come on chain, as more

of these dollars come on chain, they're looking for yield. And as rates come down, it's going to be harder and harder, more competitive to earn 10% on a stablecoin. And that's going to decrease. And so if our expectation is that the stablecoin market is going to increase market cap by 3, 4x, and that all that money is going to be looking for yield and that yield is in DeFi. And so we can expect the DeFi TVL is going to rise 4x. And all that money is going to be looking for yield. And that yield is in DeFi. And so we can expect the DeFi TVL is going to rise as well. And so it's very optimistic for future DeFi. I will say people in crypto are just impatient. And I totally get it when you have market swings like we did in the last 24, 48 hours. I just have to laugh because we say, you know, as yields come down and the Fed has cut rates,

but yields have gone up, right? I mean, you know, like, which is pretty crazy. I mean, when you're looking at the 10-year here, I don't know what it's at, but obviously it's gone up like over 100 bips since the Fed started cutting rates. I think that that, once again, the story is that people are just confused.

Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah and they're going to be looking for direction come end of jan and i think i think without question we're just going to see a lot of volatility until we get some clear idea about what is the administration going to be pushing forward uh obviously we've heard a lot of really positive headlines around crypto regulation and crypto next steps, crypto hires in the administration. But what does that actually look like in practice? And so once we get that clarity, it's going to be a lot easier to be a momentum long trader for some of these specific assets. Yeah, I think the thing is that we all know that every appointment is more bullish than the next. All the rhetoric is more bullish.

But once you have all those things happen, that part of it is priced in. I'm not saying it's not fundamentally bullish or that we have nothing but tailwinds. I think that the market goes exceptionally up. But as a trader, I think now you have to actually see it in action because we know Paul Atkins. We know all these guys, right? You still have, I don't know if you saw this story it's hilarious but genzel is still crying like literally on the way out the door still saying yeah like crypto is right actors and stuff like yeah give me it get out of here right but but but we know that we we know what's coming to some

degree but now it has to become a priority in that first hundred days to keep the momentum, in my opinion. A hundred percent. A hundred percent. And I think, look, like, you know, it was only a few weeks back in December when Donald Trump and folks in the administration were saying, I want 150K Bitcoin. And I want it, you know, in the first few months of my administration. We know this administration moves quickly. And so that's optimistic. And we know that the people that he's brought into the administration also tend to operate very quickly. If you think about the Elon Musk's of the world, the David Sachs of the world. And so I 100% agree with you. I think all eyes are going to be

focused on what's going to happen. And in the interim, you just get that volatility because it's not necessarily clear. Even if you think about some of these AI agents, it's not yet clear with that specific theme as an example, how that gets monetized, who makes money in that flow of funds and things of that nature where, for folks following trends it's hard to to keep track of until we get clear direction yeah i also think that we've had

basically a june a january sell-off like after every single having at least you know in the middle of in this exact kind of phase right after and we're still i hate to say this because it's probably a harbinger bad things come we're selling like% or 16% drop from the all-time high here. You know, our classic retraces are like, we should go back to 75, right? Like go back to that previous all-time high, hit 75, all coins go down 80%. That's when people really capitulate and give up and weigh up. I mean, this is still, I hate to say it because it might be more pain to come, but like $92,000 Bitcoin and we're crying is just absurd in my mind.

It's a good place to be. You mentioned it with GBTC. There's so much more liquidity right now in the space that, you know, we can absorb all of the sales without, you know, I mean, it was still a large market move for, I mean, it happened, you know, within an hour. But it was still a very large liquidation uh that got flushed out but it to your point it's not like we went you know down to 60k or 75k and so uh there's still so much momentum from all of the ETF purchases coming in it just you know feels like I will say it feels like everyone's a little bit tired. We came back from a really strong Q4. We've been dealing with the volatility in this space for so long.

And folks kind of want the up-only narrative. And that's just not the reality of the market. And so I think folks are tired. We're coming back from vacation. Everyone's a little bit groggy. But that doesn't mean that come end of Jan, things aren't going to be a lot more optimistic which we expect so i i totally agree with your take on stable coins and the hunt for yield and i'm assuming that what you're building is uh geared towards the

institution's ability to earn that yield so can you talk about i guess what d5 is going to look like now as institutions start to actually go deeper in the weeds? I think we've seen the first iteration of institutions coming in, which is ETFs and buying Bitcoin, right? Adding to the balance sheet, nation states this year, we've seen all the headlines. What's going to happen? But what's going to happen in DeFi this year? Because I agree, I think the ETF's been a little underwhelming because it doesn't have the staking or any yield in it. Maybe that will come.

But how are people going to safely, from an institutional perspective with a fiduciary duty to shareholders, how are they going to do DeFi safely, so to speak? Yeah. Yeah. So we've seen a couple very interesting takes. On August, August is a universal wallet that we built very similar to Enosis Safe and it supports prime services. So as you mentioned, you know, anything OTC options, derivatives, lending, borrowing, trading, execution. And the clients that we have there, what we've seen change is the amount of small businesses we now support.

So small businesses that are realizing, hey, instead of using Stripe and paying 3%, I can use stable coins and the cost for me to transfer these assets, it's close to zero. And so we've seen a lot of that happen. And then, of course, as you mentioned, you're looking for yield on those stable coins. So we start to get people interested in things like the basis trade, obviously, Ina's done well with Athena and other structured products. Now, what we've seen happen is, you know, for those clients who want access to DeFi, maybe we structure things in an SPV and then we have someone who's actually executing those trades. We can structure things in a swap or a derivative for offshore institutions so they get access

to the underlying yield, but not necessarily touching DeFi directly. But someone is trading on you know structuring that on their behalf some market makers so that there's a lot of optimism there now on the upshift side uh that's a retail product it's basically a yield layer for defy and what we've seen happen there is a lot of protocol engagement so protocols are realizing hey i've launched i'll launch this token but now I want to launch looping strategies. I want to launch market neutral strategies. I want to launch ecosystem strategies. And so what we've done is we've helped them build vaults that have really consistent organic yield because our institutions

on the other side are the ones that are accessing it. So you'll see 20% yield with very little volatility because the strategies are pretty organic, in terms of just the on chain trading fees, in terms of the, you know, rates on chain. And it's better than what we're seeing in CFI. And so it's been pretty attractive on both sides. And we're definitely expecting that to grow. So when we talk about institutions right now, we're still talking about crypto native hedge funds uh so it depends it depends um i will say no there are large banks global banks that are getting very

involved uh in the basis trade um and that you know is whether you look at the basis trade on chain whether you're looking at the basis trade with the cme and ibit uh that's an area where there's a lot of growth happening and even if you're looking at just options there's a lot of crypto options happening right now uh on majors um so i will say you know the global banks are very much moving they're very active their trading desks are very active uh which is why to your point you know sometimes you'll see that macro correlation because you have these macro-oriented institutions who are still trading these assets. And because they shut their computers off at 4.30 and turn them back on in the morning. Right. Right, right, right.

You definitely see a lot of movement these days when markets open and close, and depending on, obviously, when Asian markets open, and I'm sure something happens at 9.30. Well, not today because there is no market, but 9.30 on most days, I think it's Jimmy Carter. Listen, maybe this is controversial, but I feel like canceling capitalism for a day to celebrate a president is like the antithesis of what you should be doing. We should keep markets open for 24 hours on the day to celebrate a president, Steph. Look, I've been thinking about this as well. We're always here for controversial takes.

I don't know if it was in his will, but I cannot imagine that given who Jimmy Carter was and his commitment to the country that this was his dying wish. But of course, rest in peace. He was an incredible president as you know, and I Wanting the markets open constantly, very grateful that crypto is open. And it just means that it's more bullish, again, for crypto markets. I mean, businesses had a two weeks notice

that Thursday suddenly all banks were going to be closed. So if you think about running your operations, yeah, it's very archaic, and I'm glad we're moving away from it. I want to talk just maybe for people who don't understand a little bit more about the basis trade, which keeps keeps coming up. It's been exceptionally popular through multiple cycles, I would say that that trade on GBTC maybe wasn't so good for the market in the end. But that was different because people were locked. But how are these institutions right now taking advantage of the basis trade? I haven't even checked futures. I don't know if they're a month out, two months out, six months out, but clearly

there's some contango to be taken advantage of here if they're taking that bet, right? Yeah, I would say for majors, the basis trade was fantastic, right? So you're buying spot, you're selling future. And so you are taking that spread in terms of what that looks like right now, obviously, with the market flushing this week, not so hot for the majors. But this is going to your point about always having these token unlocks. That gives you the opportunity to trade basis because funding rates are gonna be really attractive going into unlock. So, you know, one of that that people are eyeing is INA. You have an INA March unlock.

And so, you know, someone could technically buy, let's say INA for a March expiry, and then sell or buy the put, sell the call, and then basically take advantage of the funding rate so um that's an option out there i would say for some of these alts especially you know let's say ondo but um for the majors you know a lot more activity on the basis is likely going to happen closer to inauguration options and leverage options less but and like on relatively illiquid all coins just terrifies me you know you are very much taking a position in the market without question without question

yeah I mean it's just when I see like uh people posting charts like 50x on shitcoin whatever like new meme coin launched on such and such exchange oh yeah how do you take that bet like this thing moves two percent every three minutes you know to yeah 100 i mean you need to look if you if you feel confident luckily something like ena is has significant liquidity so it's you know deeper order book but i agree if you're taking that kind of bet on you know a top 500 token, you are really living life on the edge with volatility. So I can imagine that that must be very stressful. But I think the space lives on leverage. There's been a lot of leverage looping on stable assets in order to collect fees. That's been really attractive for things like RSE, AGE, some of these restaking tokens. So we've seen a lot of that.

But yeah, in terms of basis, I mean, right now it's down to call it 9%, 10%, which is kind of the steady state, but we did see it pop up to call it over 40%, 50% in Q4. So it is also volatile to your point, but at least with basis, you're just collecting funding rate. You have to keep an eye on it so that you're hedged. I haven't messed with Ina much. I know Guy and I've interviewed Arthur about it and everything, but they had curiously high yields when they launched or talked about them that had people scared. I haven't looked in a while. I mean, I know they have their, they won't call it a stable coin, but USD E rights, it's their synthetic dollar. Is that, is that the term to, to trigger people less? Um,

and, but it was still last I checked, maybe it was November 13 or 14% yield or something. Right. I mean, that's, that's pretty attractive if it's relatively safe. Yeah. Yeah. I mean now, now it now it's, it's around the nine 10%. But you're you're spot on, right? You're taking BTC and ETH basis exposure, you're taking exposure to these crypto exchanges. And for a lot of people that feels that's great. And having it what they've done a tremendous job of is you can

take this one asset and rehypotpothecate it as collateral. You can use it as cross collateral for different asset trading. It's integrated into so many different protocols. So the interoperability of it cross chain, cross centralized exchanges with OTC desks is really tremendous and they've created so much capital efficiency with that. So you have this 10 to 13% yielding asset that you can use as collateral, which is tremendous. Again, capital efficiency in DeFi is really, really bad.

So the more that you can do with less is really important. And so that's been really attractive. Lending rates have also come down too. So I would say you tend to see those kind of coincide. At one point in December, lending rates for dollars were around 20%, 25%. That's come down now to under 10% against certain collaterals. So you've seen the market correct across the board. But that's not to say, I mean, we've seen what, and I don't think that was the top,

but we've seen what higher looks like. And it's not far from where we are right now. And so we can get there easily well i really like bottom signals i'm just happy to be reading the comments as you're as you're talking and this one just i just had to laugh on the inside for fuck's sake why if dumping is bitch fucking hate eth um it feels like that feels like that makes me want to buy ethereum i was gonna say it's a good buying opportunity. We always talk about when it jumps to 102, we're like, oh man, I wish I would have bought more. And now with this kind of

volatility, with these kind of swings, with leverage getting wiped out, with people making those kinds of comments, that's the opportunity for you to... And look i like i said two billion eth etf inflows in december there's clearly that momentum on the macro side of things um yeah eth in general has been a slower one uh to come to market that was that's been a painful crawl up so i i can totally understand where they're coming from i mean baron rothschild right buy blood even if it's your own yeah you're supposed to buy when things are really depressing and sad even if you think it can go down it's supposed to be really really painful when you buy things guys that's supposed to hurt it's your own. You're supposed to buy when things are really depressing and sad, even if you think it can go down. It's supposed to be really, really painful when you buy things, guys.

It's supposed to hurt. It's not supposed to feel like you are so excited because it's already up 400% and you're going to get 450%. It just doesn't make sense. But anyways, so 2025, obviously, this is all noise, the price action. I mean, what are your sort of predictions?

We have a lot of predictions on what will happen with Bitcoin, i said before multiple nation states companies all this but what are your sort of predictions since you're deep in the weeds on what's going to happen on the d5 side i mean is it just we're going to see more innovative products we're going to see more institutions actually finding exposure are they going to be coming through eth are they going to go into aptos and suey and a bunch of others you know how are they going to be coming through ETH? Are they going to go into Aptos and Sui and a bunch of others? How are they going to start to really engage? And will this be the year that they really start to engage?

Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, we've been hearing it for so long, this term adoption and institutional adoption, but I think we're finally there. And for us, we have two main themes. The first on the institutional side is institutions are going to continue to come in via stable coins. And so we've seen that stable coin adoption. It's not the necessarily attractive narrative that everyone wants to hear because stable coins, again, pegged to the US dollar. But what that means is once you access stable coins, then where do you go from there? DeFi. And so for us, in our perspective, we think, again,

that stable coin market cap is going to grow through forex and then those assets are going to be looking for yield we're going to have that yield ready on chain um and so that's where we see institutions getting more involved now on the retail side of things we've been talking about this for i mean god knows how long and it's really how do you make d5 one click right right? How do you get DeFi to a one click trade? So that's where I get really excited about the AI agents, the agentic wave. And I don't think we're gonna see AI driven hedge funds. I think people get really excited.

They're like, oh wow, like, to your point, I don't need to- It's an AI exchange. I was literally yesterday, so it's coming. Yeah, I mean, we're not there yet. I would say that's pretty far off. And from a security perspective uh a lot of concerns there um but i think where you fall in the in between is where you get caught

with defy is the operational overhead it is so painful to trade it is so painful to bridge it is so painful sometimes with gas fees and so know, if we can basically get more realistic applications on AI execution, AI risk management, DeFi one click, that's the adoption mechanism, right? That's how you get the institutions from, okay, now I have stable coins, what do I do? Oh, I click here once, and I get 15% yield. You know, that's how we get there. And I think these AI agents are going to get us there, but they're not going to be building the sexy tech that we all are expecting they're going to be building back and off so we have integrated a bunch of ai into our back-end operations and it's tremendous it's enabled our engineers to do you know almost 2x the amount of work that they

were doing beforehand because they don't have to get dragged down i mean it's just unbelievable but that's i think what people don't realize there's a down. I mean, it's just unbelievable. But that's, I think, what people don't realize. There's a lot of ops behind all of this stuff. And so we're really, really close and we're just scratching the tip of the iceberg here. Yeah, to me, if it's going to be like AI agent versus AI agent and mine is trading against yours in a fully AI order book, which I think will eventually happen,

it still then comes back to who programmed the the better i ai agent and it's just another player versus player superiority there's still going to be a skill involved it's no it's still going to be zero sum so somebody's agent has to lose to somebody else's in that case it's going to happen but i it's just people the way i was being pitched is like oh you're just you're going to have an agent it's going to be amazing because it's ai i'm like somebody's got to be on the other side of that human or otherwise 100 there was a one of my favorite comments ever was this one are those a big pair of jeans behind her no it's actually um that's a good question wow i've never thought about it that way either i didn't say it's a

photo of a diving board um but this has completely changed my perspective i appreciate that so yeah you know huge pair of jeans well i i wish we had more time thank you so much for joining us thank you for having me our ex is right down in the uh comments or the description there i highly suggest that you got to come back more often i don't even know when did i see you last it must have been over a year ago now we don't need to date it, but it's been a while. It's been a while. So many conferences. I can't remember.

Maybe it was like Austin 23 or something. I don't even know. Crazy. Well, I look forward to seeing Upshift obviously launch and what you guys do. And I think this is going to be a huge year for institutional DeFi. So I think it's going to be a huge year for you. Thanks, Scott. Really excited.

Thanks for having me. Have a good one you too man you guys are amazing in the comments really amazing i still like i i'm gonna i gotta go back to the other one where is it oh god hey i'm gonna bring dan on because i want a spy signal for you man if i had two more minutes i would have run and hung some pants up behind me and it would have been great do you have huge jeans just laying around? Big enough for the comedic purpose. So just in case, huge pants.

Everybody needs just in case, huge pants. I don't have any though. Okay. So dude, the market's dead. It's over. We're finished. What's going on? It was just-

I will say that those are some ugly monthly candles right now. It is. We're going to start zoomed out. It's a bearish monthly candle. We're about to confirm it again that just means we pull back on the monthly and we look for a higher low because we know where we came from anything above 49 000 is a monthly higher low and i want to talk about fibonacci retracement's a good bit in this segment uh just as a tool for helping to determine most likely scenarios and so you got to watch the retracements because that gives us a lot of information. So

the key will be, a monthly high or low is the most likely scenario. How much do we pull back before we find it? 85,000 or less, it's a monthly bull flag. 78,000 or more, we start looking for a tightening range to be most likely. And that's what many altcoins have just given us on the weekly timeframes. So the weekly low or high is that altcoins are giving us, just using ADA as an example, they're not surprising. You see a 60 or a 55% retracement, you create the space for that lower high to potentially take shape. And so now that's what's happening. Bitcoin didn't have that retracement on the weekly, so it's a bit more surprising. Bulls were hoping this was a bull flag, but the altcoin space right now, there's nothing unusual happening. We had a very wide range of both directions and now we're tightening up. And it's just a question

of, are we going to see monthly consolidation? And if we do, it just means you got to be patient because it's going to be potentially months of consolidation again. And that's the way markets work. They have periods of euphoria and then periods of boring consolidation. And we might be entering another period of some boring consolidation for a few months. How do you put that in context of what you're seeing with SPX and Q's and stock market in general? Because definitely, I mean, this did feel like an everything sell off this week. Yeah. And you mentioned uncorrelated asset. And if you're zoomed out, I'll, I can give you that to a certain degree, but when the bell rings, the bots and the algos spring to life. And the last two days it's, it's tick for tick, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin, uh, on this sell-off and it's, it's, you need to be viewing it almost as

like, how correlated are we from 9 30 AM to 4 to 4 p.m and then outside of that because they're two very different things and right now this is the nasdaq i mean volatility is coming here right we're tightening up from the fomc reaction and again same thing fibonacci's you know the the size of this bounce told us that a tightening range is most likely big drop 50 plus bounce retracement you scout the tightening range So we're going to be looking for something like this in the next week. And the next week, this is going to break. And obviously, direction is going to have significant implications. We're either going to see monthly consolidation. If it's a bear break, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 will be seeing monthly

consolidation with Bitcoin. And if it's a bull break, we're looking right back at all time highs. So it's a pretty important short term fork in the road as far as what we're going to be expecting you know uh into february with how this pattern breaks yeah i mean i love the perspective though i keep trying to tell people like fitcoin goes to 75 it's not a bear market even right i mean that would just be a retest of the uh all-time high from a few months ago you know like you get back to 74 or something yeah exactly like right there. Listen, it'd be it'd be terrible. Your all points will be down 85%. I get it. But you can't be panicked at $93,000.

Yeah, I mean, if you're, if you're panicked at 93,000, it just means you're either overexposed, you don't have a game plan. Use that, you know, observe yourself zoom out in your brain and observe your emotions and everything. And it gives you information. And that tells you, you that, observe yourself, zoom out in your brain and observe your emotions and everything. And it gives you information. And that tells you, you should be in a position right now where you're willing to sit through a pullback to 80,000 and that would be no big deal. And again, if you want to be more active, you take some partial profit into euphoria, which we definitely were in 90, 100,000 plus plus even if it's twenty percent you know you take off twenty percent position you now got twenty percent cash if it keeps going up

great your eighty percent position is benefiting if it drops you got twenty percent cash to deploy during some fear uh and that's in my opinion is the way to just be doing partial positions when you're feeling the extremes of the emotional Market cycles so So right now, I mean, do you feel like this is a time to be actively trading or sort of on the sidelines waiting in any market, not even Bitcoin specific? I'm watching this potential 12 hour megaphone on Bitcoin, where because we're coming from a straight drop of 102, if we do break, you know, 91 from here, I wouldn't expect a significant amount of follow through through at least initially. And again, that break we were looking for that break at 92,000 last time, if there's

no follow through there, that's a potential entry point. And so we'll see if that's the same. What bulls want to see is a lack of acceptance under 92,000. You get under 92,000 and you don't stay there long. And that shows us that bulls are buying that zone. And so obviously bulls want to see that continue. For me, the NASDAQ and the broader market, again, it's so tight at this point, a break's going to be coming within four to five trading days at most. It's definitely wait and see mode. You can be positioning within that equilibrium. Just as an example, I grabbed some hedge position on the bounce, just because we're testing the all-time high, we're extended on the way up. So I grab a little

bearish position to protect my long-term portfolio. Yesterday, I grabbed a little bull semiconductors just because I got a great entry. If we form a daily higher low, I'll have a nice position. But at this point, I love positioning within the equilibrium, but it gets tight enough to a certain point where it's all right, now we just waiting for it to break. And then we look for the reaction to that break. Yeah, makes total sense. Anything else you're watching at the moment specifically? Man, I've been trading these quantum stocks like a madman, but just the volatility. I mean, they're putting the crypto space to shame. This is RGTI and in five weeks here, six weeks or whatever, we're up 1,600%. And then we have the Nvidia CEO coming out and saying, I think quantum computing is 15,

30 years away. And two days from the all time high, we're down 58%. It's 2017 crypto right here. And I'm loving it because there's so much liquidity and dollar volume in these things. And just 10% bolt directions every day. Friday was 35, 45% in bolt directions every day, not Friday, yesterday. So if you're an active trader with experience, quantum stocks is where it's at. But expecting, again, retracement, right? Fibonacci retracement. How much should we pull back? All right. Over 50%. Now we expect a tightening range

and volume and volatility to drop off as this fervor of activity and volatility settles down. And it's going to be boring. This sector, which is- You're going to have to go to meme coins now, buddy. Sorry. And that's the beauty of being a trader where you're not focused on one sector is just follow the opportunity and you know i didn't know anything about these stocks six weeks ago and now they're my most actively traded thing by far and then when we tighten up and the volatility and volume drops off i'm going elsewhere and i'll find something else and and that's why when you have confidence in technical analysis, it's just beautiful for opening up a world of opportunities in whatever market is volatile.

Yeah, Ben Cowen says it's related to bonds when the comments I do tend to agree that the bond market and yields going up when the Fed is cutting, it's causing a lot of confusion and hesitation in the market. So I don't think that that's a bad take. Yeah, I mean, you saw when the NASDAQ topped out with that most recent daily lower high, it was economic data that pushed this big red day back on Tuesday. What was it? Manufacturing numbers or something. You know, for me as a technical analyst, I'm aware of those fundamental things to tell me volatility is coming when this number comes out, but the number itself doesn't mean anything to

me. It's always the price action. But yes, there is macro concerns, the 10 year up at highs, definitely having an impact. So definitely a factor to keep an eye on. That's why I always say technical and fundamental spectrum, the only wrong spots to be here is at the extreme of either you have to have the window open of at least a little bit of uh one or the other yeah perfect well guys you can follow dan of course at chartguys on x and check out his youtube channel and his constant uh content i just love you're just always and that's we that's what we do here but you're just always calm you know you've got a plan and you're ready to go and unfazed and I

know that like when people watch YouTube they want to see somebody like freaking out with the big face and doing an emergency video and telling you what you have to do you never have to do anything like you don't yeah I mean there's no there's no if you believe that you're in the market and there's an emergency that you have to deal with that you have not planned for just get out already and don't buy into any of that shit i'm sorry it's like you know i just see the people panicking right now and you can just you can feel it you know like when you when you interact with the community just have a plan it's gonna be fine or just do this it's it's hard when you're an empathetic person because i literally feel people's stress and things like that so it's it's

obvious you know and then they throw it at you you know oh yeah it's your fault it's definitely my fault there's a guy in the comments who thinks it's my fault and he thinks it's my fault on twitter where is he this guy this guy crypto strike. This is why you don't... I'm going to find it. Oh, I realize it's the same guy. One second. This is why you don't shout... See, every time price goes up, I say, you know, like 102K all day

or 105K all day. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I've been doing it since like 3000. So like, I'm sorry that I did it 100... It's just my way of announcing price. I found it. Here it is. On X, he called me a scammer for that

this is my posting that 102k all day was called out scammer okay it's a scam me telling you the price of bitcoin it's a scam maybe maybe you shouldn't be in the market good times i appreciate you showing up to youtube though to follow along and and retroll so it's always good to know that you're loved uh dan uh really though it's amazing you're always calm collected your perspective is great um and uh we are going to be back next thursday with you i hope uh and of course i'll be back tomorrow with the friday five at uh nine o'clock a.m eastern standard time and thank you as always been a pleasure all of you thank you see you tomorrow bye