The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Flood Incoming: Bitcoin Inflows Break Records! | Macro Monday

Episode Date: April 28, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and Larry Lepard as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 Larry Lepard: https://twitter.com/lawrencelepard Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►►CHECK OUT MY LATEST POST ON THE ROUNDTABLE APP 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/VCIIACi ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6319316098351104

dollars in stable coins and Bitcoin to go higher and to offer Bitcoin services. And ETF inflows were a record last week. Lots to talk about. Scott is in, or actually en route to token 49 in Dubai. So it's going to be Larry Leopard, myself and Mike McGlone this morning on macro Monday. Let's get to it. Well, we got a lot going on and a little going on at the same time. Not a whole lot this weekend. We're still in the markets are done with their tariff tantrum, but the real economy looks

to be suffering a bit. Could be these money printing incoming, who knows? Why don't we get started as we always do Mike with the morning meeting? What did the doom and gloomers say this morning? Well, it's a good lead up David. Hello to you and to Larry and to our listeners and viewers. First, Rana Wong, pointing out the GDP now cast from the Atlanta Fed have been posting negative numbers,

even if when they take out gold. Their outlook is for GDP is around very, very weak, around 4 tenths of percent. But it's looking forward was the key thing that really struck me. She expects this payroll number to be decent. She's above estimates of 165,000 and 4.2%. That's the consensus.

But it's the next month, May and June, she thinks she'll be very weak. It's logistics and trade, leisure, and hospitality, they're just collapsing. Plunging was the word she used. So looking forward, looks bad. ISM, she's expecting 48.5 from 49. Gina remains still quite bearish. This is impressive for me to hear that from Gina because she I

thought she was a parmoble for a while and I realize she's not. Her points are key thing on the way up we've covered most of the gaps we're back to long-term downtrend is what she thinks. Still well below that the 200 day moving average S&P 500 around 5700 but the key thing she pointed out is guidance is that record levels? Lows there's a record number of sales misses and margin expanses has flat lines set to contract That's the key thing key and from the majors and then Audrey are fixed our

FX strategy just pointed out, she thinks we've meets peak tariff negativity for now, which is part of the reason I think Gold's has pretty good peak at 3,500 for now. We'll see where we go for the next few months. Back to you. So the real question, Larry, this one's for you. for real question in my mind is the Fed always reacts to published data and makes them late. They've been too late on pretty much every move that they've done in, I don't know, forever,

except for this past summer where everyone looked at it and said, what the F are you doing? The entire world expects these numbers to be better. I've heard you're not the only ones who are above consensus I mean, you know job numbers look great But if you talk to and I mean literally anybody in the real economy You hear tales of oh my god. I'm about to lay off these number of people It's all what's about to happen because of all this to all the people buying stuff brought forward

In order to take advantage of the fact that tariffs haven't kicked in yet. So the question is, does the Fed look at what's about to happen and say, oh my God, or do they wait for the actual print that says, you know, that jobs, you know, new jobs are a minus number in the hundreds of thousands and they look for unemployment to like explode over five and a half percent. I mean, do they wait for that or do they actually have anything that could be predictive? It's a great question. Uh, Dave, I don't really know the answer. I mean they they should anticipate but often as you say they haven't historically

um, you know, and they might want to wait for the print. I mean it also goes a little bit to the politics of the situation where and they went on to wait for the print. I mean, it also goes a little bit to the politics of the situation where it's pretty clear Powell doesn't wanna help Trump and Trump has been nasty about Powell to Powell. So, at the margin, Powell would wanna be a tough guy and he wants to kind of hang on to his potential reputation as a Volcker,

which was really the inappropriate thing to be in this circumstance, but that's what he's trying to do. So, I don't know, I call it a coin toss. I mean, I think if you go to see me FedWatch, you see the odds are pretty small that they do anything in this next meeting coming up. And I guess I'd have to go with that. You know? Yeah, that's what it feels like to me. I mean, Mike, I mean, given that everything that Gene is describing and all your economists are describing looks like there's a train, you're watching the train, you can see a half mile ahead

that there's an end to the tracks and it's going into a canyon. And the markets are effectively looking at this and saying, eh, I mean, what do people make of this? Do they think people are just dumb and that they're waiting for the actual bad news to show up or what's going on? We'll get to Bitcoin in a second,

but just in terms of the stock market, it looks kind of, looks very positive. I'm sure Mike has a view, but Mike, I have a strong view on this. I think people still are locked in the buy the dip mentality, looking backwards, you know, that Trump is going to, he's not serious about these tariffs, we'll negotiate with China, everything will be okay.

He just grabbed a lot of turf and I still think there's a lot of happy talk and a lot of happy, I think Wall Street is deluded about how this is going to turn out. I think it's going to turn out worse than Wall Street is currently pricing for. And so I'm very, very bearish at the 5,500 level. I don't think we even see 57, the 200-day moving average. And I think we'll take out the April 7 lows sometime in the next 30 to 45 days. That's my view.

And I guess I have to say, Darren, we agree almost completely, which means one of us is probably going to get stopped out first. And then it goes that way. As trading bear markets, it to me feels just like 2008. I just remember in July when that price of gasoline, average price of gasoline went above four bucks a gallon. That was it.

I just added to short positions, but you had to take pain first. To me, that's what's happening with tariffs. Our economists point out, yeah, it's inflationary, but two thirds of most of these inflation numbers are services and they're starting to get hit hard. I think that's the key thing is we're in a transition. My view is this is a bear market this year and I expect the S&P 500 is more likely end the year down 20% and up maybe even 5% to 10%. And it's just normal reversion that's overdue.

But we're in that stage where yeah, you can't, and also we've had the first salvo. We've had gold tell us there's a problem and it got too expensive at front-running market We had the stock market go down tell us a problem and has to bounce back and I complete with I think we all agree But Larry knows we know how markets work. This is something that people haven't really seen mostly the junior traders for 15 years I just remember the last two 50% drawdowns Yes and be 500 last 25 years were very good years for me when I was trading just because I Recognized the things I pointed out last year the key thing

I want to point out this year so far as if you look at your statement, this is a less lesson I learned from your market Market map. I'm sorry a market wizards Yeah, Charlie DeFranchesca. He was one of the key guys in the trading pits. I knew he died a long time ago. He pointed out the key thing that matters is your statement. It doesn't matter if you're you have a view It's what that statement says and so far in the year. I see virtually every stock market index is down

I see gold the best performing crypto is actually bitcoin up a percent or two most crypto markets down 15 20 percent And everything else is just down. So from a trading rational standpoint, from a statement point, most people are losing money. Traders though are loving this. I just look at this as a great trading environment. We bumped up to good levels. Maybe we get higher. Bitcoin is a great leading indicator. That's why I thought this first bounce to unchanged still is worthy of a short. That 60 VX is a great buy. Now it has to prove where it's going. Overall, the big picture macro is I don't think it's proven yet. Maybe by then this week, people will see something to prove it. The bottom line is nothing really

matters unless risk assets go down. I think we're way overdue for that normalization. I end with a key thing that's happening. stuff Dave and we all discussed two years ago, when the Fed eased last year, that was on the back of first of all, they stayed too low for too long. The prices, everything went up and now everything's gone up too high. And they eased when the stock market was on a tear. I think they made a mistake and just added another thousand points to the stock market. Now when it goes back and to inflation, now when it goes back down, it makes pain worse. And we all know cryptos are the leading end of risk assets. Well, okay. So let's look at that because the market, I think, has been saying, telling us something differently over the last two weeks. And what the market's been saying for the first time in a long time actually is logical to me. Now, that's a really interesting

thing because markets are rarely logical in when you're in the market Then you look back six months after whatever you're talking about and then all of a sudden you go Okay, that made sense because in the short run markets are crazy in the long run. They tend to get things, right? So if you think about what's actually happening Right now in the stock market. I'm with you guys. I hate to agree with you but I am I think the trade the trade is If I if I were a macro hedge fund I would be short the S&P and probably the Nasdaq but definitely short the S&P which and probably want to focus on the manufacturing

Sectors and the things maybe big tech is gonna key is gonna catch a bit because the same reason Bitcoin's gonna catch a bit But you're going to see the real economy get hammered. You're going to see liquidity conditions improve. Powell may hate Trump, but he doesn't like unemployment, doesn't want to be at the steward of a depression. So it's a game of chicken that in that particular case, Trump will win, but it will be whatever it can be. Maybe he lets it happen first. But in any case, corporate earnings, which do matter for stocks, are going to get hammered.

I think we all agree with that. But on the same token, liquidity is going to come in. So I think the trade is short S&P, long a basket of gold and Bitcoin. Bitcoin for the adoption curve that's happening and gold because gold is literally that exactly as you say Mike, I mean it is what it is. And to me that's the actual macro trade. Now we can talk about why I think Bitcoin is going to be more like gold and exceed it and we can get to that later.

But when you talk about that, I've noticed I'm not talking about the rest of crypto. If right, you know, I'm talking about Bitcoin right now. I think Bitcoin dominance will increase during all of this. And yes, there will be some winners in crypto, like there'll be some winners in the tech sector. But the truth is, if the real reason the markets are going down are because earnings expectations get crushed, that really will just massively increase liquidity and not necessarily hurt assets like gold for sure, or Bitcoin, which is effectively been

trading more like gold over the last few weeks. And the reason for that is, is there more people who are investing that way as a thesis? I mean, Larry, you run a Bitcoin fund. I mean, you talk with investors every day. Yeah, I agree with you. I think people, you know, and James, who's not with us this morning, I'm sitting in for him, had a great thing in his sub stack or in his, his you know information this weekend where he showed there's really separation is beginning to occur I mean we're seeing stock market down Bitcoin up so this

Bitcoin is no longer just a widget on the triple Q's one thing I will comment I'm back to the Fed you know I mean the Fed cutting last year to me that was just clearly political they did that to try and help you know the other team win the election and it didn't work you know and look at the CME this morning, it's an 8% chance they cut on May 7th. I think what's going on here is I actually think Bascent and Trump are going to force the Fed into cutting. Bascent's not stupid. He knows that what he did would tank the market. And the market is a bubble. It's a bubble or has been a bubble created by, you know, ZERP from 2009 to 2015 and 2019 to 2022.

I mean, they're just enormous distortions. I mean, Hussman's done the work to show that the valuation of the stock market is higher and more overvalued than it was in 1929. Coming out of 29, it fell 80 percent. So I think there's nothing but downside risk in the stock market. When I see people talking about the Fed's going to cut and we're going to go to all-time new highs. I mean, Mike, you and I both remember, I'm sure you do too, Dave. I mean, in the last two bubbles bursting, 2008 and 2000, the Fed cut all the way down.

Didn't matter. When a bubble bursts, it bursts. And so I think this is a bubble bursting. And I'm very bearish on the stock market. I think the stock market ends a year down 40% that's my personal view but you know what do I know I mean it could be wrong. Back to the Bitcoin thing yeah I mean Bitcoin it's interesting as we've seen and some good charts have shown my partner David Foley put one up about a month ago it's on our

thread that shows that you know gold tends to smell the basement before Bitcoin. And so gold just got on a tear and it's up 60% in the year. Very, very rarely ever done that. I mean, really rare. And it's probably overextended, but Bitcoin was kind of flat during that timeframe. And now it's playing catch up. And often what it does is it catches up and it goes further because it's more volatile. So I see Bitcoin at 140 this summer. I'm very constructive on Bitcoin. So Mike, obviously music to your ears, you've been talking about market cap to GDP. What happens if the GDP does what people, what your economists are thinking it's going to do

toward the back half of this year? That market kept the GDP number. If the stock market doesn't come down significantly, I mean, what are we gonna get to three? Well, that's the key, I guess, sore thumb on the global market is we have had, we have significant deflationary forces out of China. That's no known.

Everybody in the world is pushing back on their exports because they have to. And they're just front loading, they're loading their exports in the world. Remember, we've seen this from Japan 30 years ago and it wasn't nearly as big. We have significant deflationary forces in things like crude oil. It's all hitting that lower and you see it in gold doing the opposite. And the sore thumb on the global scale for that deflation from the inflation, which is all lesson in history is that's how you get it. You have to get inflation first, and then you go to deflation.

It's the US stock market. But it's not just GDP. It's versus the GDP of stock markets of the rest of the world. So I like to watch this S&P 500 versus MSCI ex-US index from 1968 to 2013. It was basically one to one. Then it jumped up to 2.1 in the last 10 years. That started head lower. When it becomes prudent on a global money management basis, it's hard to dispute this. Dave, I think what our listeners want us to do is disagree,

but if it becomes prudent on a global basis, just manage your money when you're overweight the US to sell that, that's a problem. And I think that's what's just happening. I agree with you completely. One of the best ways to get the Fed to ease, to get inflation to go down, to get somewhat deflationary forces is to have the stock market back up 20%, 30%. And it's way overdue. And then by the time you get to midterms, have it stabilized and stelt heading higher

and then point out all this investment into the heartland, which is by the way, oh, by the way, I'm cutting, I'm not going to tax your, your wages. I'm not going to tax your, your, your overtime or your tips. It's going to get the votes. It's a great setup I think for, but the key thing that the primary thing, the primary thing I'm still expecting is this all makes sense to me if we get that finally, at least maybe a one third drawdown, which is an S&P 500, which is the base case of economics and Bloomberg Intelligence. But the kind of thing I just need to point out is that to me is a very unlikely case where Bitcoin is going to outperform gold. So I point out in the year, gold is still up 20% and Bitcoin is based

beyond. So I look at this level here as, okay, prove it. This is a lesson I learned in trading, but you get to key level, you see, prove it, prove that strength. So far it is, I have to agree with that, but let's get through at least these week's numbers. Yeah, I think that it's important to look at a couple of things. So let's talk about, I want to shelve the Bitcoin conversation for a few minutes, we have some time to get there because both Larry and I are going to hammer at you, but for different reasons, different things. Come let's see. Come on, make some better discourse.

No, no, no, that's cool, but I think it's important to understand that what we're all basically trying to tell people is that the global macro situation is not pretty because of what's happening. But I think it's really important. You keep saying something that I think is demonstrably wrong,

but demonstrably wrong, I agreed with you up until probably two weeks ago, which is that the way to force the Fed's hand is the stock market. I don't think that, I don't think the cent even cares about the stock market. He came out on this weekend again and said the same thing. What he said this weekend was really important. He once again made it exceedingly clear that he cares about the bond market. He wants the 10 year down. I don't think he cares in the short run about the stock market. Everybody, I mean, Trump does because, you know, people yell about it. You know, it's like it, but said made the point this week in which I think was fascinating where he

said in this interview, uh, the one that I saw, he said two things. The first thing he said was, listen, you know, the stock market is more or less unchanged from where you people all screamed about where we're having a crash. And the media, as far as the average person knows, the stock market is still crashed, if they haven't looked at their own 401k, because the media is saying, said it crashed, and they never said it recovered. And the reality is recovered almost all the losses

April is actually hunched. and today we're basically unchanged. So, you know, they're looking at the media and they're kind of shrugging their shoulders. But in the same interview, we talked about how important it was that for the US long bond and that is important and that's what he's fixated on. So, you know, I mean, Larry, what do you what do you make of that? I mean, what are his tools? Because this morning, you know, what are we at 4.3? We're still in the same range. There's no panic, but it, but it definitely a bit of a hit over the week.

Well, clearly he cares about the bond market, but you know, and when the stock market took its initial dive, the bond market caught a bid. And the tenure came down into the three eight area, but that didn't last long and started going in the other direction. And they're really kind of trapped as we all know. And that's somewhat of a problem. Let me just add one other thing on the stock market that I think some people haven't really focused on.

Our stock market has always been the world's best stock market. And there's an enormous amount of foreign capital in our stock market. There's a net $15 trillion positive foreign investment balance in our market. And another thing we haven't mentioned at all is that in the first quarter, the dollar also went down 10%. So you're a foreign investor and you own US stocks. Your US stocks go down 10%.

And then the dollar goes down 10%. Well, you just lost 20% in your local currency terms. And so I think one of the things, and I've seen some numbers that show that a lot of investors are losing confidence in the United States. I mean, you see all these, the people in Europe aren't taking trips here anymore. I mean, this Trumpian throw a grenade into the party strategy, see where it all lands, create a lot of chaos. I mean, I get it.

There are those who say it was a smart thing to do. He's got to break the glass, got to grab a lot of turf. The flip of that, though, is you create so much uncertainty in your own currency, your own markets, that everyone decides, hey, you know what? The US isn't a safe place to invest anymore. anymore and this great equity growth market economy that we've enjoyed kind of goes away. And we know a couple of things. We know the top 10% of the population accounts for 50% of the spending. We also know the top 10% of the population owns 84% of the stock market. So take the stock market down 40% and guess what? You know, that top 10% looks at the retirements account,

looks at everything else and says, I'm not going to buy the extra car. I'm not going to, you know, rental the house. I'm not going to, you know, they just cut back on everything. And so I think Trump and Bissett are thinking, well, this is okay because they, they aren't the ones who voted for us. We're out to help Main Street, the bottom 50%. And that's all fine until the job losses start. You know, and then Main Street is going to get hit too. So, you know, it's a toxic brew. And I think, you know, the thing, my personal view is they overplayed their hand, and that China is going

to make them pay for it. I mean, China, you know, you notice how Trump said, oh, we're going to talk to China. And Xi is like, we haven't talked to him. You know, we're not. I mean, you know, I mean, China, I mean, you know, we entered this fight with a glass jaw, which is our financial markets, which are highly levered and very, you know, very unstable. And, you know, they entered the fight and they think in 50 and 100 year timeframes.

And so, you know, they could make us suffer here pretty badly in my view, if they don't come to terms with us and, you know, the world enters a very serious business downturn. I mean, you know, we go back to the smooth holly stuff in the thirties and when that came through, I mean, what it did was just devastating. And, you know, I mean, we're seeing, you know, container shipments just kind of go to, you know, trend towards zero. That's not good. And, you know, in. And in a highly levered economy like the one that we have, this stock market to me is just a disaster waiting to happen. So one thing I love that Dave points out

is that the smooth holly came when the US was a net exporter. This is the difference now. Yeah, I think the historical context of what happens, number one, was not ever underestimate the self-correcting mechanism of the US. If this doesn't work out come midterms, there'll be pushback. Come next election, Trump's gone forever. We switched back the old days.

We're fine. If it works, it'll set the stage for the next 100 years. I think it'd be very, very unsmart to underestimate the United States in this space versus a country that's led by one person. That's China, one human being. There is absolutely no self-correcting mechanism. And you're seeing the issues now with what happened with housing getting too expensive. And you just can't stop the thing.

Nice. Well, when Treasury, Treasury Besson points out the Mickey Mouse thing with the broomsticks when he is in Fantasia, that was Sorcerer's Apprentice. There's an unstoppable force right now of that supply coming out of exports coming out of China. That's the same thing I see in cryptos, but that's another story. Obviously, I'm American, but I just point out the facts of history here. China is very much worse than Japan was when they peaked.

And heading that way now, where are they going to export? They're toast. I mean, just good luck. Let's remember what happened. This is the last 50 years of the US being the benevolent, biggest demand pull country in the world that charged zero tariffs. That's just changing. And it's, it had to change.

It has to reset this off this global balance. But let me just finish with that thought here. This is happening. I think it's going to be good in the long term. In the meantime, the self-correcting maxim Mexican The main point is we all agree on it means the main thing that people did for the last who knows decades to it was Like I learned from another person. I'll mention my history John Licio people who remember him as a great Journalist you an economist point out traders in the pits or dope soft sniffing dogs But that's what capitalists are when it comes to profits. We were dope sniffing dogs

We found any way to enhance profits, that was offswing. Now it's going to go back. So the key thing is getting any profits. The key thing I want to point out is I don't see how we get through this without just some normalization of US equity values. We all kind of agree on that, which means everything goes down. But Alia, I will agree with what we all said is what Besten's view is. To me, if I keep saying the same thing, maybe eventually we'll be right.

Gold was the last big trade for a while. Bitcoin was a great trade for quite a while. I think it's just overdue for some normalization. That's where we can disagree a little bit. It's too expensive, too high. To me, the next big trade is that normal deflation where US Treasury long bonds will be the next big trade. And guess what?

I've been wrong for a while. I admit that a lot of people, I know the smart people have been wrong. So I'll end with one other person, another market wizard, Marty Schwartz. I started in the trading pits in 1988. And I remember executing for him on the night desk. He started getting bullish. He had got a bunch of money. He was trying to buy long bonds. He was early. He was wrong. He got stopped out. And the next year he started getting in and he did great. Just a little lesson I learned is, okay, he was early and wrong. He was leveraged, which

Dave knows you should never do, but I come from that environment. But he got stopped out and then he went back in and did very well. This is what I think is happening with bonds right now. Yes, I've been way early. I keep saying the same thing, but I think they're just going to drop 200 base points and get towards China, which is 165. Wow. So, see, Mike, I would, in a normal a normal backward looking environment I would say you're completely right

but I think I think the rules have changed in the sense that and gold is telling you that the rules have changed and the rules have changed because Everyone fully understands that the governments are trapped and that they have to do the big print somebody should write a book about it And since and since they understand that. Since Larry doesn't want to promote the big print, hold on Amazon. And since they understand that, they know, I think more and more of the bond market is becoming aware

that they're the sucker at the table. I mean, it's gonna take some time because right now, I mean, the government's not printing much, I mean, but that, as we all know, I mean, one thing the Federal Reserve you can count on is they will change on a dime. I mean, they weren't even thinking about thinking about raising rates,

and then they did the fastest cycle ever. Do you know what I mean? And I mean, at some point when this gets bad enough, they're gonna turn around and go back to Zerp and QE and your head will spin, right? So here's the question. If, let's say for the sake of argument that you're right, Mike,

there's a logical inconsistency in what you just said. And let me point it out. In a world where the US bond brings long rates down 200 basis points, corporate earnings are suffering because we're in a real economy recession, to think that Bitcoin's gonna stay correlated to the stock market is silly. And it's silly for two reasons. Reason number one is even assuming Bitcoin is at its mature asset and

it's essentially trading around where its size is relative to gold, gold and Bitcoin are more likely to be together. But the second reason is adoption. And we always ignore that. Most of the people who are buying, and I say this every week, but it's really important because this isn't just Michael Saylor anymore. It's not, he's not some dude wearing some billionaire kind of Zen master wearing Yoda robes

and acting like a Jedi saying, ah, the force says Bitcoin is going to be a billion, 10, 10 million, whatever dollars, you know, it's not just him. There's 80 companies with Bitcoin on its balance sheet. There are multiple sovereigns mining and getting into Bitcoin. There are 20 bills for states buying it. It's and most of the people, the smart money people who are buying it are doing it because they see, and here's the word, swords that I've been using for three or four years now, it's an asymmetric potential return to the upside. Not symmetric, asymmetric. As long as that's the belief, unless something happens to change that belief, i.e. a 51% attack or something that changes it,

that matters and it matters to the way people be particular. Now, even if you don't believe Bitcoin is going to outperform gold, the fact that people are buying it as a hedge or as an outperforming mechanism vis-a-vis stocks, you have to credit that is true. Yes, backward looking, it has been correlated to risk assets. Why? Because there's been this monster thing. You've said it many times, Mike, and we all agree. We had the largest liquidity inflow in human history, and everything went up. Sure, everything was correlated due to that. Right? Okay, that's gone. It may happen again if these guys are dumb, but whatever. And that's Larry's

point is that they are that dumb and they are going to happen it is going to happen again and whether it does or not but take that out of the equation and now look at where you're at and that to me is the biggest difference even look there's a few things to keep in mind on the macro side so one of the major thing that's happened on the macro side that you wouldn't care about is inflows and outflows. I'm not talking about ETFs now. I'm talking about the fact that Tether has been trading now with a slight premium for

four days, five days. The last couple of times that turned, that is basically just so the audience understands. The reason Tether trades at a premium is because people outside the US, not inside the US, outside the US need to get dollars into the crypto system to invest in crypto. Of that, Bitcoin gets a disproportionate amount, roughly equivalent to Bitcoin dominance. And so you have outside people buying into crypto. That is what's supporting the crypto market right now. Now, could that turn in a dime? Of course it could turn in a dime. But it's really important throughout this, all this uncertainty that you're seeing that

at the same point, foreigners are dumping stocks, as you both mentioned. So I just think that that is a really important thing. I'm with Dave. I think Bitcoin is a very good bet for this year. I think gold continues to be a good bet for this year, although it's really had quite a move and it should easily it could and should probably Consolidate I think the stone mark stock market's a bad bet Bonds are bonds are kind of mixed. I mean I hear your point Mike and you're right historically, you know, they should drop but I Don't know if they will it all depends upon how how fearful of that future debasement You know know, the bond, the typical bond investor is.

And I would submit based on what's going on, they should be pretty damn careful, but they may not be. You know, people get a lot of things wrong, right? So let's have some discourse on that one. First of all, one of the most important things I've cared about always in this space, Dave, is what you mentioned is not so much tether as the proliferation of crypto dollars.

It reminds me very much of when I was in Hong Kong in 2018, pointing to all the bear market stuff in cryptos and everything, and the key thing I pointed out as a bull market is Bitcoin dominance and the proliferation of crypto dollars. Tether was only $2 billion now. It's a complete bull market. It's part of the reason I thought it's finally we had our president back then who thought it was silly Internet money who flipped over like what do you not understand about something is who is base layers of dollars investing in treasuries? He figured it out. He got it That's my point is what you said about early about the on flow all the inflows is one of my most bearish things I've ever said I've ever heard because they are expecting a profound shift in what's happened in the history of

is they are expecting a profound shift in what's happened in the history of highly speculative risk assets, most notably cryptos, to diverge from its high correlation to the base layer, which is the stock market. Now, that is a call I will not make yet. I mean, I predicted it years ago. At some point that's gonna happen. They'll trade more Bitcoin, trade more with the treasuries. And then we saw Trump get elected,

and we saw the massive proliferation of excess supply of cryptos and the massive humery and the financialization of this space, it's way over leveraged long. So I'm just pointing out the same thing I did in 2018. I think Bitcoin can risk losing a zero. That's not profound. That's what it's been doing historically. So I'm sticking with what normally has happened. You both are expecting something that's very slow probability.

It's never happened before in history. Good luck with that one. I wish you luck. Maybe it'll happen. I want to see the proof. The first sign of that would be stock market going down and Bitcoin staying up on the year. I haven't seen that. That's my thought is, okay, as a trader, test shorts here and that highly speculative risk

asset, the whole world's buying things. And then I look at it, when you have an asset that absolutely can't go down, yet has a history of going down, you probably should be careful and look at it if when you have an asset that absolutely can't go down yet has a history of going down You probably should be careful and look at it as a rational person I'll try a little of a put ratio spread in that type of position prove me wrong I want to see the market prove that view wrong. I want it. I hope it proves you right I hope it proves me wrong, but I fully expect the absolute rational thing You're thinking about something very profound unusual the rational things affect normal is expect normal reversion, particularly with all cryptos, I think most of them will lose zeros. I think Ethereum is going to drop to around 200 bucks. It's just where it was in

2019, 20, not a big deal. It doesn't even just get too expensive. It's a big deal for people who've longed, but not for people like me who remembers internet stocks in 2019, 99, they love most of them went to zero. And then in 2007 and eight in the housing market. So this to me is a normal expectation if the stock market goes down. Now if the stock market drops 20% in Bitcoins up, that is gonna be a major profound revolution. I don't think that's gonna happen.

But it's been happening Mike. I mean, just to look at the S&P. Short term, the short term, yeah. But it's happened how much? It's happened since year end. Here, year end, Bitcoin is flat. The stock market's down 10%. And gold's up 25%.

So that's the beginning of the year. The beginning of the year, we all pointed out, we knew it was expensive. I still think we should be overweight gold and risk off assets and underweight risk off on assets. Bitcoin has a higher correlation to the stock market than it does to other cryptos in some cases, and it's very volatile. Good luck if it's going to outperform the stock market when it goes other cryptos in some cases and it's very volatile

I'm like good luck if it's gonna outperform the stock market when it goes down. I mean sure What's the what's the relative performance since November 1st? Okay, you can pick a point time I just point on no no that's a really important point in time, right? Because that's before that's when the regime changed right, you know, so it's it's not random It's you know, okay, you know by that by November 1, the markets that were pricing in Trump winning. So okay, here's the market. I'm just asking the question. We can pull it up. I'm going to right now. The key thing I've been watching for a decade now is the Bitcoin to gold ratio. It's the same as 2021, biggest bump in history. It got too expensive before, we got it. Got down to 25, it's too cheap.

Now it's bumping up near 30. Can I make a point? Because there's a very specific, in the middle of your last soliloquy, you made something. You said a little sentence fragment, which I think is really, I wanna pull at that thread. You said at some point, it's gonna be more like treasuries and more like gold.

I said that's what I said in the past. Yeah, okay, so fine. So for people who believe that that is true, understand that there has to become a transition for that to happen. That transition is you throw a zero on the back end of Bitcoin in order for that to be the case. Right? And so the question is if you have an asset Bitcoin in order for that to be the case, right? And so the question is, if you have an asset which in order to achieve that,

now it may, obviously the probability isn't 100%, it was 100%, it would be trading a 940,000 instead of 94,000, right? So the fact is, in order to get there, how does it get there? We talk about deterministic paths all the time, how does it get there? It has to do that.

Now, will that happen? That's the question. So the question then is, what do we think about adoption for Bitcoin to become more like gold and really compete, at least on the edges, as gold does with treasuries and fixed income? That's the question. And that's where a fundamental disagreement is, I think.

I mean, Larry, do you agree with that? Just to answer your question, I just ran the numbers quickly. I mean, since November, since Trump was elected, Bitcoin's up 55% and the market's down 5%. Right. So, but it's important because the reason that I say that, Mike, isn't to be obnoxious, although I clearly am obnoxious, I get that, and I'm always speaking to you. So, you know, I understand it. But the reason I'm saying it is when you pick a time, which is right before the inauguration, that we've already had the anticipatory blow off top, which clearly got overextended, and traders licked their chops, and smart people made a ton of money by shorting at

that overextended first attempt to break out. If you normalize all of that, you kind of go back to November. And so 55%, it doesn't matter. The outperformance is dramatic. And that's really the point, continue. But it's not gonna continue in your point. Mike's point's well taken. I mean, we've only got six months of data points or less that were early in the time,

but it is starting to occur. It is starting. But the price set is still going to be in Mike's way. It's like we're at the good test now. My bottom line point is I've made predictions in the past that Bitcoin was going to add a zero. Now, I'm fairly simply it's going to drop a zero because it already added a zero and that has a good reason to give it back, partly because everybody's so bullish.

The difference is now it has 14 million dependents. And every time you see those things go down, it pressures Bitcoin, partly when you see every all these allocations to Bitcoin. There is matching the stop in this space, there's going to be hitting a market's always hit stops. It's a lesson again, I learned from Charlie D, you go for the stops and then you buy it. I think it's more likely to hit the stop and then go back up than to just keep inching higher from here because a lot of these people are in it expecting nothing but to go up, expecting past performance which they've seen. Everybody get rich. It's usually how it works. They'll get stopped out and then it's the time to buy like Amazon in 2002. So let's go back a thousand

for a second. I know Larry, I know you're itching to tell Mike that you know all the people you talked to couldn't give a crap about all coins and that The coin that they're not dependents. It's the other way around That's the statistical relationship But but forget that let's go back to 2000 because I think that this year reminds me a lot history doesn't It does rhyme and if people who remember that we had a massive 14% sell-off in one day in March of 2000 in the NASDAQ. I was sitting on the trading desk at Solomon at the time and you know that March was horrible. It was down significantly. But the market against all odds with everyone saying okay you know you know, there, you know, people were doom with doom predicting ground higher into

June July and then started a weekend and then then the fall was bad and the whole next year was bad with the crescendo of September 11th being when the markets reopened after that was Pretty close to the pico bottom at that point. I mean it is you know, it was that now Do I think that we're gonna have the same sort of thing now? No. Why? I think that this administration would prefer, and if you're going to have a crash in the stock market for it to be in 2025 and for 2026 to be the rally off the bottom and make people forget what happened in 2025. Just like no one remembered when the election time, the Afghanistan debacle from Biden,

people don't remember shit. I mean, unfortunately the entire electorate is like Dory in Finding Nemo. They're gonna only remember 2026. And so what happens now, everyone keeps talking about, oh, this is going to have impact on the midterms. Sorry, but no, I wish that people were that smart that they could actually remember things,

but people don't. And so I think that that's what we're looking at. You're right. I think this fall and in this late summer, this fall could be extremely ugly for what you like to term risk assets. I just think that will be the final proof of what's going on in Bitcoin because I think it's, first of all, there's two things about Bitcoin. It's really small relative to the stock market, meaning that if you're going to pick something to save, that's a hell of a lot easier to save.

It takes a lot less capital to create the demand to that the supply just isn't there anymore. Right. To sell. And second, second is it's not tethered to earnings. And we're all talking about a serious earnings recession. Right. Does anyone disagree that we think that earnings in corporate America are going to have a real problem? think that earnings in corporate America are going to have a real problem. I agree with that. That to me is my thesis. Now, maybe you're right. Maybe it's Hopium. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe there won't be liquidity coming in in the back half of this.

I think the market's anticipating too much liquidity now to hold up the stock market. I just don't see how we're not going to see a serious earnings recession. That to me is the issue. Yeah. No, I think that's coming. And then the questions are, how does that ripple through all the other marketplaces? And it's to be determined, right? I mean, and probably most importantly,

the question becomes, where is that Fed put? Does it exist and at what level? I mean, in 2020, you know, in COVID, when the S&P was down 32%, he panicked and came in with all the guns. My sense is he doesn't wanna have to panic, but my sense is also that if things get, you know, I mean, we know, for example, I mean,

you know, there's some great things that have happened since I was last on your show. I mean, when, you know, when they, the bond market got in trouble and arguably in big trouble. And that's why they did the 90 day pause on the tariffs, correct? I mean, I think the set went to Trump and said, sir, you know, we're losing the bond market, we can't have that happen. We got to pause this shit. And so they did. And you know, that could

happen again. And if and when that does happen again, you know, that's the third Fed mandate that I talked about my book. I mean, that's when the fed mandate that I talk about in my book. That's when the big print will come in. So the question is just how far does it have to go? How long does it have to take? And at that point, then Powell will have the political cover and he'll be able to say, hey, yeah, I'm an inflation fighter, but look, we were in a serious problem here and the

house is on fire and look at how I came in and saved it just like Bernanke did. That's what's coming next. But the question is, what's the point at which that recognition takes place? And I don't know the answer to that. But I think that's in the next six months. So Mike, here's the interesting question. Does anybody, we all anecdotally know people, do you know anybody that's involved in any company that sells goods? Whether it's a retailer a manufacturer or whatever, you know anybody who isn't afraid of being laid off Anybody that's the key point. It's not so much if they're actually getting laid off. It's your fear of getting laid off That's a key thing that suppresses consumer spending.

We all know it's a psychology of the human and that is the fact right now. There's a guy in my condo who's French and he works with a lot of import companies. He's glad he worked ahead and a lot of his competitors are getting hammered. But that's the key thing I think has happened. I think if you just look at the lessons of history when you get to two times GDP and the highest market cap ever versus the rest of the world. There's only two examples in history, 1929 in the US, 1989 in Japan. Maybe it's different this time.

And I just point out that when this whole thing started with cryptos in 2009 and when the whole rally started in the stock market, they've been together on the way up. Same thing with the dollar. Everything's linked. Cryptos, Bitcoin, the dollar. Now they're starting to tilt lower. Certainly crypto indices. Now I do get it. Bitcoin, the dollar. Now they're starting to tilt lower. Certainly crypto indices. Now I do get it.

Bitcoin is digital gold. It's market capital. Its dominance will increase. But when the whole space goes down, you don't want to belong to a highly volatile risk asset has a history of trading with risk assets typically. And that's what's been happening this year. So let's look at flows in ETFs. There's maybe up to $4 billion total of inflows in Bitcoin. Yes, we've had a lot in the last

few months, but there's almost $30 billion in gold. The thing is we've had four years of outflows. That's my point is I still think gold is going to be the better performer at the end of this year, better than Bitcoin, and most notably if the stock market goes down. Like again, we've seen that and it's already bounced a little bit. That's my point is, okay, prove it now. But the macro is this is not anything we know the examples we lived through, but historically I did live through the one in Japan. I remember trading there a lot.

I remember a lot of my Japanese customers and people at IBJ, the people I worked with, they got it. They did well, but the general Japanese consumer didn't understand and general Japanese didn't understand how expensive their market got. And now it's just, it normalized. China is normalizing, it's US's turn. Well, yeah, there's a couple things in there.

First of all, Japan was dominating, right? Because they were at PEs, I'll never forget, you know, there's Business Week articles, all sorts of stuff. Look, I built the first index art business on the street. I spent like the month of April of what is it, 1985. God, makes me feel old. But I spent the month of April at the Imperial Hotel as the kid programmer building the ability to trade the Osaka 50 versus the, you know, but versus the stocks there and sent over my team,

you know, to help build index arbitrage in Japan. And, you know, versus the stocks there and sent over my team, you know, to help build index arbitrage in Japan. And, you know, you went to the Japanese stock market, and it was funny. So if you went to the TSE in those days, on days that the market was up, they would stand, they literally would stand and clap. And when the market went down, it was like, you could hear a pin drop. I mean, it was like such a, it was, it was was really really interesting, you know, things like the national psychosis Was about how the the market was and then that was right at the beginning of the time period where it dropped from what? 50 some odd thousand down to below 10,000. I mean it was I mean an 80% drop top to peak trough That that's big. We've never seen that it's it's it's that. It was crazy. Understanding that, but why was that true? Well,

Japan had this thing called Koretsu, which was the cross ownership of all the equities, and it was all tied down. The liquidity in the stock market compared to liquidity in the futures market was really, really tight. People really, really small. So the futures were 5x more liquid than the stock market. And so what happened was the Japanese companies were not allowed to sell a share of this. And so they were kind of hamstrung. So the foreign companies came in and started selling futures.

And of course that translated through to the stocks. And you ended up seeing this thing pinwheeling down and down selling futures. And of course that translated through to the stocks and you ended up seeing this thing pinwheeling down and down and down. And that kind of locking in the market doesn't exist anywhere else. I have no idea what's going on in China. I'm not gonna lie. I have no idea if there's anything like that.

But the reason I point this out is when you lock down your markets, bad things can happen. We don't have that problem here, right? That doesn't mean it can't rhyme, but it does mean that we don't have that problem. their yields, you know, potentially got to 2% we look, oh my god, that'd be horrendous. Right? You know, what would they do? Think about that. Yeah, exactly. And so it's just a very strange, it's a very strange situation for us to understand. But it is different. but it is different. So let's put back up on that. I mean, that's some great history and stories. I really appreciate it from you, Dave. So I just love doing the analysis

and the top three major exporters in the world. You just mentioned one, Japan, China, and Germany. Their average yield of their tanninote is below 2%, 1.8%. Germany's the highest at 2.5%. Yet their exports about 25% in their GDP. Germany is the worst. Their complete export predator, 50% in their GDP. Getting hammered, and by the way, BYDs and Teslas are pretty good compared to their internal

combustion engines. Toyota and Honda have a major problem. You see that deflation here. I think the key point is those three countries have GDP around 30 trillion, a little bit less, about the U.S. There's severe deflationary forces and the U.S. has got one thing holding it up. It's stock market. That's why I look at it. I can't take that risk. Can I ask you a question? And Bitcoin's part of that.

Let me ask you a question because it specifically to that point. Have your economists analyzed what is the correlation of consumer demand to the wealth effect, or how important the wealth effect is? For those who don't understand, I'm asking Mike about how much consumer spending is being supported by people who have their stocks that they're using to rely upon as opposed to jobs. So I'll check in with that.

I've looked at it. It's the highest ever in this country, particularly if you go back to 1929, only the elite owned stock market and they got hammered. But the key point I like to, I used last year is we created and created $12 trillion of wealth from the US stock market. That's the most ever, it was 40% of GDP. But now this year we've only taken back to now,

we've only taken back about five trillion. Now we've taken back almost all of it for a little while, and we've bounced. It's unprecedented how much that will matter in the economy. It's no comparison. There's no way to really check in history because 1929 was the only example. Now everybody's in their 401Ks. And now we all know that if you look at US unemployment rate, it's a bull flag. We fully expect to go near near 5% by next year.

That's our economics team. And that means people can't contribute to 401k if you're losing money. If your neighbor's losing money, you have to find other ways. This is a key case. There's no historical example, just like the tariffs. There's no example of jumping this high of the amount of wealth that's related to the US stock market in terms of the average human being in this country. It's incomparable. Now, I'll check the economist team, but they'll just tell you what I said. There's nothing to compare it to. Yeah, no, that's right. It's quite a bubble. And I think we're on the same page about it bursting. I think we're just slightly different on how it's going to affect the bond market and the Bitcoin market. I think that's very relevant. What's the policy response?

I mean, you show me what the Fed does. The big print. If the Fed wants to sit on its hands and watch the whole thing crumble, yeah, I mean, everything's going down. But it's the point. Okay, so we all know started it with the 1987 stock market crash when Greenspan eased 50 base points that day. But we've reached the point of maximum return. We've reached the point where, okay, we've created way too much liquidity and we found

that the risk of inflation, we still have too much liquidity and inflation in risk assets. So the Fed knows that, and that means it's now just back to the normalization period. Now, I think I like to call it, you know, we have the high, I think we've had the macro high price cure. You've seen this commodities on an annual, maybe semi, more than a couple of years cycle. Now I think it's happened in the equity market. We've seen the high price cure. Now we have to find out where the low price cure is. If fully expect the Fed will ease, but they're kind of behind the curve right now.

When they do ease, it'll be a lot, let's go 50 at a clip. And then we'll get to a point, I think, where it's going to stay down for a long time. But we're definitely in bounces because we've realized, okay, we've learned all those lessons of history of too much liquidity inflation. The Fed will end the buy bonds. That's what they always do. Why should that stop? So it's funny because the policy response will make buying bonds a suicide mission. That's what I would say. Well, no, when you, when it's funny. Because the policy response will make buying bonds a suicide mission. That's what I would say. Well, no, when you when it's your market, come on, what do we do after during World War II? And even after World War II, we didn't have a big print, but we got out of that. You know, we grew out of it.

Well, by exporting part of it was export. That was a completely, yeah, they did yield control, but it was a completely different situation. I mean, they had a much better demographic picture and they weren't running enormous budget deficits. I mean, the minute the war ended, the budget went into a surplus. So that's what saved us there. We can't get this budget into a surplus without wiping out 50% of boomer entitlements and that's not going to happen. So it's not at all comparable to World War II.

Well, we used to have a saying when I was in the bond pits that supply drives bull markets and the lessons were Japan and China now. I mean that the GDPs are much higher and they have the lowest rates but they're exporters. So I got to see that beef of having deflation in actual, even though we have more supply and actually have bond yields going up, that's really never happened in this country and if it happens great it'd be like Bitcoin going up and stock market going down it's never really happened in a long-term picture I'd like to point out that there's only been two down years in SMB 500 since 2008 that was 2018 2022 and each time Bitcoin went down many

axes the stock market did so like I said it's just let's see it it's just usually doesn't happen that way. It's gonna have to separate, no doubt, but it's in the process of starting that. So it really is, yes, when you talk about it from a policy point of view, the question becomes, how does the government respond? Look, we all keep saying the same thing. What I think are two things. One, we don't know, and it's very uncertain, what they're going to do to help the supply chain dependent companies. What we saw in the pandemic was we learned something.

And unfortunately, it looks like they didn't learn this lesson, at least Peter Navarro didn't learn this lesson, which is sad. But we learned the lesson that the economy is very interdependent. And we are massively dependent upon certain exporters, not just for finished goods, but for parts inside of goods. We didn't learn that lesson, or he did not learn that lesson, but the world did. And the Fed had to come in

and do what they did, because people were going to be out of work all across. And there was at the same time shortages driving inflation What is the most inflation everything that we can do into our economy? We could screw up supply chains. We learned this Navarro did not learn this he needs to go to remedial Seventh grade eighth grade middle school econ to remember to learn this and and the reality is we have the Secretary of the Treasury Probably using those words to President Trump saying you know President with all due respect we learned we can't screw up supply chains we need to moderate and so

I think that's what you're seeing sorry about that that's what you're seeing I'm gonna compare this to COVID too you know it's almost the same thing but what does that mean that means that we are the reason the Federal Reserve is like, what the hell guys, is if you do things that are going to be massively inflationary, not because of the tariff one time jump, if you just hit a 10% across the board tariff, no, but this this wouldn't have happened. This was not about that. This is about uncertainty of where you

could get your finished goods from where you could get your parts and components from. This is about uncertainty of where you could get your finished goods from, where you could get your parts and components from. This is about screwing over supply chains. And China is way too important embedded in all our supply chain. As I said, I talked to people in three different industries over the last week, apparel, a piece of tech, and machine goods. They all said the same thing. They all said that they're afraid

that they're not going to be able to even get the components they need to get to be able to sell stuff. That's really important because that's massively inflationary even for way beyond the effect of the actual tariffs. So that's what's doing it. So we'll see. So if the administration recognizes this and fixes it, that could be a big deal. But the other big deal is

that is almost certain to create a dramatically higher amount of economic pain, right, than people think. So I'm not saying that's gonna happen. But I am saying that it could happen. But that's the analogy I like to use that I remember in 2008 when the price of gasoline, I just say, and this average price went up to $4 a gallon, that's only three. So that shows it was like July.

Crude oil went to its all time high of 140. By the end of the year was trading $40 and the average price of gasoline was below two. That to me, it's now, I think it's worse, because it's the whole supply chain thing when you can't get your Christmas lights. But that's also a short-term thing. By come a year from now, we'll finally realize, oh, you know, we don't have to just offshore. There's ways we can create things in this country or near shore. But right away, right now, that's to keep bent, I'd say, is yeah, it's towards a normal way overdue recession that we didn't get in 2023. Now we have a great catalyst for it. And I'd look at it as this year's don't be

beholden to any long positions unless it's risk off assets and look to be trading tactically. And so far that strategy has worked out really well and I stick with it. Yeah, no, I get that. I get that. I mean, it's funny. There's one of the comments we got on Twitter is from Joe Carlisar and he's like, the market's only down 10% and these guys are predicting a market crash. I can't believe how bearish we all are.

I want to be exceedingly clear from my perspective is we are careening toward that direction in my point, unless there's a policy change, right? I think that earnings is going to have a serious earnings recession, which will get reflected in the market to see somewhat unless policies change and we get easy money. If you get those things,

I think you can rescue the stock market, but I think you need to do both. I think you tell me, what do you think, Mike? I think you think that it doesn't matter and you think it doesn't matter. Here's the problem if we rescue the stock market, eventually it's going to happen. It always has happened in history. You have to normalize when you have way overvalued risk assets. In the US on a global basis and historically is the

sore thumb the US stock market everything else trickles down from the cryptos are part of it I think the process has started yes if I'm a trader I probably need to get stopped out a few times before it goes the right way what I remember the first time I worked with Marty Schwartz but right now I look at it is seems too easy as the first short was a Bitcoin getting unchanged on the year after it was seemed too easy when it was a 60 to buy it. Now I don't trade anymore. I just look at it as I hope I would have done, but that's what I think the market's looking

at it. And the thing is the masses, I don't get it, but what I think masses do on a global basis are selling US stocks on rallies. And because they have to, it's prudent, unfortunately, now. Right. Larry, your final thoughts? No, I just I'll stick with my bearish guns. I think that this isn't going to be a good year for the market. And I think it's going

to be a good year for, you know, sound money, which is gold and Bitcoin. So, you know, it's, to me, it's a pretty simple strategy. Also good for gold stocks. The gold mining industry is just terribly undervalued. You sound like Peter Schiff. Gold miners are going to become the new central banks. They produce sound money. They do so by pulling it out of the ground at enormous costs of energy, which Mike, I think you're still calling for oil to drop significantly. Well, see, that's not profound to say. It has in the last 20 years. There's an excess of supply. Demand is declining.

And we have a vested interest in going lower. So $62 a barrel, yes, I made the call way too early. If you keep saying you'll be right, I think it gets to $40. Even natural gas pumped up to $4 this year. Typically, bottom's near $2. We had a colder than normal winter. Are we gonna get that two years in a row in a global warming environment? It's more likely headed that way. All the grains, the grains have had a decent, a massive supply coming out of Brazil.

Why? Because the price is pumped up and they're all heading towards a low price curve. Unless we get a drought this year, they're all going lower. That's my point. This is just a normal trajectory. You need some kind of shock. We need to dig into that a different time.

It's time to wrap, but we'll see what happens with the US food supply, what RFK does, because there's gonna be some interesting things going on on commodities. The only point I'll make on oil is simple. It's in 20, $25. What is 40 from history, given how much monetary debate there is?

It's massive deflationary. Crude oil is one of the most deflationary commodities. It's a major commodity, but it's completely... I mean, the price we've seen on the screen was first traded in 2005. That just shows you how humans create more with less every day. The problem is now we're using less. I mean, it's just the fact I say my plug-in hybrid is 11.0. Can I ask one question?

One question I'll ask is what was the cost of production the last time oil was at 40? The last time it's about $50 a barrel, break even costs and our data goes back from about 10 years, it's been dropping from 70. It's the rapidly advancing technology of drilling technology. Drill one, drill now, and you can go out horizontals, 20 of them for four or five miles. It's just unstoppable. Well, now the rest of the world's adopting that. Even China's adopting our techniques in EDs and genetically modified seeds and things. Humans create more, it's super abundance.

There's a great book about it. It's a wonderful thing for consumers, but bad for prices. It's very- Right, but it is good for inflationary expectations That is good. But anyway, we could go on forever Anybody have anything final to say or we'll wrap it here and we'll see you all next week I think Scott will be back from his jaunt to Dubai then down to Miami for Formula One He's racking up the frequent flyer miles. Thanks Mike. Thanks, Dave. It's always good to talk to you Mike

I really appreciate your perspective. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks guys. Thanks David.