The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Market Crash | Will Bitcoin Drop To $50K?

Episode Date: May 1, 2024

Some analysts predict Bitcoin can drop to $50,000. What are the chances it happens, and what are the possible scenarios for Bitcoin and crypto? I am discussing this and more with Joshua Frank, Co-Founder & CEO of The Tie, the leading information services provider for digital assets. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Joshua Frank: https://twitter.com/Joshua_Frank_ Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘25OFF’ FOR 25% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Crash The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The crypto market today looks like a small dumpster fire that's inside a bigger dumpster that is also on fire on a day when we likely have some hawkish tone from the Fed, Jerome Powell, FOMC today. What all seemed like tailwinds seeming like headwinds today at the moment, will we continue to correct? Where will the bottom be? Is this normal? Are we in a brand new bear market? And what's happening behind the scenes? I have one of my favorite guests, Josh Frank, here to discuss that and likely more because I never know what we're going to end up discussing.

And of course, Texas West Capital on the back half of the show. You don't want to miss this one, guys. We're going to talk about the pain. We're going to talk about the blood. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. Even if you don't like the market, you'll do it for me. Going to go ahead and just bring on Josh now. Hey, man.

Great market. Terrific. But you said you're not paying attention because you're in such pain from the Knicks game last night. Awful. Awful. I can't even. I haven't been able to function for the last 12 hours. It's good. Honestly, I think the Knicks did you a favor if they kept you from watching price action or seeing what was going on in the market today. Obviously, a quick look at CoinMarketCap. A whole lot of red. Hey, look at the one hour. Look at the one hour. It's all about perspective. It's all about perspective.

Nice bounce. Actually, I think that this is a local bottom. I can tell people why later, but I'm seeing a lot of signals. I don't think it's bottom, bottom necessarily, but local bottom. Yeah, but I mean, ETH 11%. Look at that. Outperforming Bitcoin in the last seven days. But then you get down to the Solana, down 22%.

Doge, down 22% as in a week. Shibaiba 21%. Avalanche 18%. Look at Tron. Look at Tron. Up 4.47% on the week. Just killing it. Crushing it.

No comment. I mean, you know, I will say a lot of people have to buy Tron, I guess, to use USDT on Tron, which is the most popular place to use USDT. So maybe that's the reason. Could not possibly be any sort of other reason like, you know, somebody holding up a price or anything like that. No comment. Still no comment. I tried to give you the bait.

But yeah, man, we got Bitcoin down, you know, 58,000 bottomed below 57,000 today. I just took a look and more than half of the people who have bought the Bitcoin spot ETF are now underwater. We've seen sustained outflows there. So I guess we'll see if those buyers are paper handed or diamond handed. And if you take a look, I mean, even just quickly at a chart, let me pull up the right one. I mean, it's a big gap of air down to about 52,000 to 50,000, right? There's just kind of nothing there. Yeah, man, I think it's worth talking about the ETF and what's going on as well. Let's do that.

I mean, I think there were a lot of misconceptions that the ETF purchases from the beginning were institutional and they were not. Right. So all along, all of these purchases have been primarily driven by retail. So, you know, I'm speaking with some of the larger ETF issuers and you see that in the 13F filings. Right. So, you know, the different fund managers have to file 13Fs quarterly where they show their positions that they have in public markets. And, you know, what we saw is that there weren't that many institutions in the ETF from the get-go. But I mean, the numbers that I was hearing from the issuers going back a month was that 90% of their flows so far had been from retail. And so I think it's just something that's important to note is it's more

retail money that flooded into the market, but the floodgates of institutional capital, which we've talked about as being the really big impetus for major price movement, is going to take time and that still hasn't happened yet. And just because we're seeing some outflows now doesn't mean it's not going to happen. But I think it's just important to note what kind of happened in the market here is people got very euphoric about the ETF approval, and I think rightfully so. And lawsuits that were won against the US government and a number of other things, retail flooded into the market. And then in classic crypto fashion, everyone thinks they missed the boat on Bitcoin. They start throwing their money into other things, and then they go further and further and further down the risk curve. And once we start getting into things like

throwing money at Joe Bowden and Gary Gessler coin, it? It's usually a signal, right? It's some form of a signal that, you know, all right, people are going further down the risk curve. But if you think about what drove the last bull market, not just from a token perspective, but from an equity perspective, from a valuation perspective, a lot of that was driven by real institutional capital entering the space, whether that be from sovereign wealth funds. We obviously saw Tomasic and GIC in Singapore led the last round for fireblocks, for chain analysis, for a lot of the big Falcon X, for a lot of the big crypto companies. We also saw in Canada, we saw Quebec and Ontario teachers and other allocators within Canada get involved in the market.

And in order for this market to do well, and I think to sustain itself, obviously, we want retail to come back in full force. And I don't think that's happened yet. I think a lot of people that are in the market are the same people. And we can go through some data on Twitter activity and some kind of gauges for that if you want. But I think we need to start seeing funds raise more capital. And so one of the biggest things for me, and one of the biggest things that I look at is basically trends in how much capital funds are raising. And we actually track this. And I can kind of share my screen here. So this is not 100% complete, but we've seen some

bigger raises announced. I mean, it's an Andreessen doing a billion. I know Galaxy, I think had a huge raise. I know the DNA guys down in Puerto Rico. We have the data here, right? And so what I'm kind of looking at is, so this is just if you are a US reporting fund. So a lot of these funds, by the way, are reports to the US, but also have feeder funds that are offshore. So they're receiving funds from multiple different directions. But what you can see here is basically the total amount of capital raised and the value of the last rate. So DBA just announced 18 million. Blockchain builders, whatever this is, raised another $4 million. So there's some money, 1KX raised another $153 million.

So there is money flowing in. Keep in mind that these filings are annual. Polychain just raised about $100 million for their latest venture fund across these two different entities. I can see that 500 million galaxy down there. Yeah, but this is the Solana thing. This is the SPV for Solana, I believe. To 500 million galaxy down there. Yeah, but this is the Solana thing. This is the SPV for Solana, I believe. To buy OTC Solana. Yeah, at a discount. Yeah, yeah.

So, but the point being is, what we want to start seeing is, and look, some of this data is delayed, right? Because it's an annual filing, right? You basically file a Form D, which is the first time you file that you've raised capital. And you say like, okay, we're filing, we just raised $50 million from 20 investors. And then every year you file an amended form D called a DA, where you update the amount of money that you raised. So for example, if somebody last raised six months ago, they're not going to file for a while, right?

They're not going to have to file for a while. So this data is a little bit delayed. What I'm really looking for is, for this market to really take off, we need to see funds raising a ton of money. And it's both VCs and hedge funds. VCs to kind of lay the seed, lay the groundwork of crazy valuations and crypto stupidity that we all come to know and love. Which we were seeing in a month and a half. Right. And why were we seeing that? Why were we seeing that? The reason we're seeing that is if you look at the market, the only way to make money in crypto scalably is with L1 and L2 investing if you're a big fund. Because if you think about it, all of these big equity deals,

whether that be into some of the companies that I mentioned earlier, some of these other crypto companies that raise it over a billion dollar valuation, right. Or even in the hundreds of millions of dollars, no investors have had an exit. If we look at acquisitions in crypto all time, the largest acquisitions you're talking like Cypher Trace by MasterCard for a few hundred million dollars, Curve by PayPal for a few hundred million dollars. You know, like Coinbase has bought a couple of things for $150, $200 million, but there really haven't been... The mining space has had some public listings, but outside of the mining space, it's really Coinbase on the exit side. And so if you're an investor and you're looking at the space,

as an investor, you want to get a return, right? And if you're like, look, I'm going to give an equity company money, and I don't know what the path to an exit is, it's really hard to underwrite that deal. But if you look on the liquid token side, right, if you're a VC, you could put your money in an L1 or L2. And clearly, those are the ways to get scale, right? And that's why we see all the largest raises that have happened are, you know, whether that be Monad, whether earlier it was SWE and Aptos. What about EOS, man? What about EOS? Don't forget EOS.

Yeah, well, EOS much earlier, but I think that was before that narrative even caught on. Telegram, when they originally raised, obviously they returned the money. Now Tana's doing very well, but the only way to get scale is to invest in L1 and L2s. And so that's why you see these gigantic checks being deployed.

Because if you're Paradigm, for example, or you're Andreessen and you've raised a few billion dollars, you can't go like, how many DeFi projects are you going to invest in? Like 300 DeFi projects? Yeah, $20,000 at a time. Right, exactly. And so I think we're going to continue to kind of see that trend. And the really important thing for investors, and I think we're actually going to see the reason that I'm bullish longer term, is I think that investors are going to have really good returns and really good DPI. So basically distributed to paid in capital, the amount of money that they're returning to LPs. And the reason I say that is if you look at a lot of these new deals that are going live, like WorldCoin, a lot of crypto funds got in the seed round at a couple hundred million dollar valuation. That thing is trading at, let's say, 50 billion or 60 billion today. So they made a 300x. Some people got like ZK Sync, Monad, Say, all of these projects. We can pull up the list of investors in some of these things. You can see the funds that are going to return capital. I can pull it up.

Which is wild because it's once again, the old crypto, I don't want to say scam, but retail just gets destroyed and the VCs and early insiders are actually making a ton of money. Yeah. You can look at here, you know, like here, for example, on world's coin as an example, there's a lot of, yeah, your screen's not up yet, but yeah, no, no, there's, there's a lot of these things. Right. So like we can see here, like, you know, coin fund got in on the series a of, of world's coin. Piper's fear got in on the series, a multi-coin got in on the series a right. Soin got in on the Series A. So the Series A was, I think it was a billion dollar valuation. WorldCoin today, the token, let's start the token,

is trading at a $45 billion valuation. So you have 45 extra money. So for example, if you put $5 million in, that $5 million today, granted, the tokens are not all liquid and we can look at the vesting schedule, but you're talking in the range of $225 million. And you might've put $5 million in out of an $100 million fund. And so the point being is a lot of this movement that we're seeing with a lot of these tokens coming out of the gate with really large launches, obviously that's cooled down a little bit in the last few weeks, right? You're going to start seeing funds have great returns. And hopefully on the back of that, you're going to see new institutional capital flowing into the space because funds are going to say, we returned 10X on the fund or 5X or 20X or whatever.

And I think that's going to send the next wave of capital in, but I think it's going to be a little bit delayed. But that's not Bitcoin, that's the rest of the market, but we need that to happen for the market to prop up. We need to see that flow of capital, and that needs to start not from family offices and high net worth going into funds, not from retail, but from real institutional allocators writing $500 million checks into Andreessen and other funds. But Andreessen is raising a billion so i mean they're going to try so they believe that the timing is still there the fact that we're seeing these but they had four billion before for crypto right so that's right but

have they deployed that i mean to your point like why raise more if you can't get those funds are majority have to in a few years yeah they have to have to. I wonder how they deployed 4 billion. You might know, but I have no idea. I just saw something that they just bought a bunch of tokens. I don't know if that was public. So they're doing OTC liquid deals to get- Yeah, they're holding liquid tokens. I don't know if this... I think this just went live. I think people... Apparently, they bought $80 million worth of OP tokens out of OP's treasury directly. That just came out this morning. So with a lock, with a two-year locks at a discount, right?

So, yeah, I mean, there's lots of ways. But yeah, I mean, they're buying liquid tokens in size too. But that's good. That props up the market. We need that. Like if you want this market to continue, we need to see these flows of institutional capital. And it's not the only thing. Retail is very important. Retail in Korea has done a great job in moving the market, but we're not at the point yet where like US retail is really here. You know, I'll float you my theory. You know, when U.S. retail comes back, whenever Dogecoin makes a new all-time high.

Because everyone thought retail was going to come back when Bitcoin made a new all-time high. Then we surpassed it and it didn't happen. And everyone's underwater on NFTs and Doge. So if we can get Bored Apes and Doge back to near all-time highs, then the people who were here before might have interest in coming back. That's my theory. That's my theory. And so all this meme coin presale, all the things we're talking about before that institutional capital that you're mentioning comes in, that's just more supply of random things being added to a market that has no more demand outside the Bitcoin ETFs. Yeah. I mean, here you can see,

let me share this. So here's just, and we can look at Dogecoin too. It might be interesting, but here's, let me just zoom in a little bit. Here's the red line is daily tweet volume. So you can see spikes in daily tweet volume and the blue line is 30 day average. So we look at kind of the peak point that we got to was significantly below in terms of average, below kind of where we're at in 2021. January was kind of the peak that we saw in terms of the average number of tweets, but it's still relatively high. But you can see obviously, this is kind of going down, we can look at Dogecoin, though, as a comparison to see kind of where that's at. I haven't pulled this up yet. Yeah.

I mean, it's... Sick. Yeah. So I think that is a really good gauge for retail. And you can see that Spike never came back. No. One Elon mentioned and we're back, baby. I think he has. He has mentioned it.

Yeah. He doesn't swing it anymore like he used to because people aren't paying attention. They're underwater. They've sold. And to me, that's where they're going to come from. So I mean, talking about the cycle and where we're at, if you just take a look at a halving cycle, there's no surprise. I think we're at a 24% total retrace right now from the top at 74,000. These are still very shallow retracements relative to previous bull markets, right? I think this at 24, 23, 24, wherever we're at is the largest or on par for the three or four that we've had in this bull market. But in previous bull markets, they were 30 to 40%. And that was

normal. So is this just the normal post-having retrace, boring summer, parabolic fall that we've seen every time? I think it's also macro. Macro is retracing, right? I mean, the Nasdaq sold off 2% yesterday, right? So Bitcoin right now is behaving as a risk on asset. Sometimes it behaves as a risk off asset. It depends on people's perspective and it depends on who's in the market. The more institutions in the market, the more it might behave risk off potentially or uncorrelated. I don't know. It's hard to tell. Right now, it's behaving risk on.

Yeah. I mean, April, I had just seen this. Bitcoin faces worst month since FTX crash with ETF demand cooling. 16% in April, most since November 2022. So a pretty significant downturn. We also doubled, right? So,

you know, it's also healthy to retrace a little bit on a double. I mean, um, I mean, triple off the bottom or more, four times off the bottom. I think the year opened at 42,

the year opened at like 42. So we're still up, you know, 50% on the year more, you know, here, here's all the different, no,

not quite. Yeah. Here's all the different time not quite 25 yeah here's all the different time frames 25 yeah yeah we're up 100 on the last 365 days 31 on the year yeah so i thought yeah is that no that was after yeah 43 february 14 march um and this is our best run since like 21. I mean, look at all these months in a row, 4%, 24%, 9%, 9%, whatever, 3% pullback. But then 43, basically moved up for about seven, eight months in a row. So pullbacks are... And we can look at correlations as well as kind of interesting. Is nothing here concerning you then? Like the fact, a know, a lot of people said if we break 60, it's the end of the bull market. And then that matters to me.

I don't think that matters. I think what matters is, is our retail going to be interested in our institutions going to be interested? I mean, at the end of the day, I think that matters more than look, I'm thinking in longer timeframes than next week or next month. Like, yeah, Bitcoin can pull back next month. I wouldn't be surprised. It can continue to pull back. But I think the question is, do we still see real institutional flows? Look, it takes time for RIAs to get approval and to get set up to offer their clients Bitcoin

exposure. It takes time for Bitcoin to get added to a lot of different platforms. It takes time for institutional allocators to get comfortable with crypto again. And I'm having the conversations with the sovereign wealth funds, and they are more interested in crypto. Like we just saw, for example, one of the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds just led an investment round. Granted, it's a smaller VC that they have, but they led an investment round for a crypto company, right? And so, you know, at the end of the day, is the real capital excited? Are they interested in the space? You look at the Middle East and

Abu Dhabi and Dubai and other regions are creating great policy that's going and targeting crypto companies moving to those regions. And I think that the sovereigns and wealthy families will follow that and the capital will flow and the capital will follow. And I think that's, I mean, that's going to prop up the market, right? And that's the biggest thing to watch. Like if one of these guys, Polychain, Multicoin, Paradigm, CoinFund, any of these guys, these are just examples of names, come out and say, we raised a billion dollars or we raised 500 and you keep seeing that, that's eventually going to flow down to tokens. And I think that's something that you want to be able to front run that capital deployment cycle. Okay. So then do you view what's happening right now as a buying opportunity?

It depends on your timeframe. I mean, it depends on your time frame. Like if your time frame is long-term on Bitcoin, why not put a little bit in? I'm not saying deploy all your cash, but like, and obviously not investment advice, but I bought a little bit at this price, you know, not a huge amount, but you know, like I paid 10% of the cash

I have set aside for crypto I deployed today. So it's not a huge amount, but you know, like I paid 10% of the cash I have set aside for crypto I deployed today. So it's not, it's not a huge number, but it's, you know, is that just into Bitcoin or are you looking at altcoins? Yeah. Because if you think Bitcoin is going to have more downside, well, I think, I think there's much more downside risk in alts than there is in Bitcoin. I mean, I think everyone pretty much agrees with that, right? Like I think, look, alts have more upside, Bitcoin's got more downside. So if you're concerned about your downside, like Bitcoin is very liquid. I can get into cash the second I need to get into cash, not moving markets. And I'm not moving markets on all coins either, right? But the point being is it's a more liquid and less volatile asset. I feel more comfortable holding. And I mean,

I would say there is zero doubt in my mind that Bitcoin will break its all-time high again. I have no doubt that that's going to happen. Yeah, same. You talked about how the main capital goes into L1s and L2s because they're huge and liquid. Are there any new useless L1s and L2s that will probably go up in price anyways that you've seen coming out? I have no comment on utility of any of these things, but I think there's a lot. We need more L2s because we don't have enough of them. So much demand. Yeah. Look, there's... I don't blame them all for trying, but they can't all survive. Look, broadly speaking, 90% of startups fail, right? I mean, it's a stat that everyone likes I don't blame them all for trying, but they can't all survive. Look, broadly speaking, 90% of startups fail, right?

I mean, it's a stat that everyone likes to throw out, right? And so, you know, look, some of these L1s, look, there's an L1 that's going to launch this year, which is going to become a top 10 or 20 market cap coin. No idea what it is, but I'm sure it's going to exist, right? Every cycle we see that, right? We see, like, I think the last cycle was Polygon, Avalanche moved a lot. Obviously Solana was kind of within that cycle and is in this cycle again, right? So we always have, and then there's tokens that had their cycle and are now 100 by market cap, right? I mean, do you ever pull up the Wayback Machine on CoinMarketCap before?

It's literally like my favorite thing is looking at what the top 10 was in 2017 and 2021. Let's look at the top 20 in the 2021 cycle versus now. I mean, I think that's a fun thing to do. Let me see if I can remember where it is. I've used the Wayback Machine, but I don't know where that's specifically. So here, so let's look at the top 20 that exist today. Toncoin, I think, is the story of this cycle. And I think rightfully so. And Solana. I mean, Solana was eight bucks.

And Solana, and Solana. Toncoin and Solana, I think right now are the stories of this cycle. You know, I think NIRS had a lot of movement because of the AI thing and others too. I mean, Aptos has been gaining a lot of traction and some other projects. But if we go and we look at, where is the historic? I can't remember where it is now either. I'm going to look too because I don't want to. No.

Historical snapshots. Here we go. All right. So let's go to like even last cycle. So what do we, like we untweet volume, the peak of last cycle was jan 21 right so i mean look at this i mean it's a totally i mean eos was still 15 theta was 17 v chain nem was 19 uh celsius was 22 uh god so And then if we snap back to the last cycle, which the peak was probably about January 2018, right? I mean, NEM was six, IOTA was 10, Dash was 11, right? So every cycle has its coins, right? And so there will be new coins that have their moment and then they have their cycle.

Unlike, you know, unlike equity markets, there's no revenue here. So there's nothing to... Yeah, they'll have their cycle and then we'll be talking in, you know, 2028 and laughing about how they're like 200 on that list because there's some new shiny objects. It just shows you how careful you

have to be and your timeframe and expectation. Yeah. I mean, that's why everything is timeframe. Everything is timeframe. And also I think one of the biggest things that people just don't look at is look at fully diluted valuation. You have to look at not the market cap, but for anybody who doesn't know who's listening, market cap is the value of all the tokens that are currently in supply. But fully diluted valuation is the value of all the tokens that are currently live, plus all the tokens that will go live. And for example- A.K.A. the actual full supply when everything vests and unlocks. Correct. So if we take, for example, WorldCoin as another example, 2.01% of the supply is currently

circulating, right? And that's just one example. And there's other examples. Such a scam. Such a scam. They release into low float and, oh my God. Right. But that means that 50, you're going to basically, for price to stay the same over time, the price needs to hold constant with 50 times more tokens being available on the market, 50 times just for price to stay constant. So it's a really important metric to look at. And I know people say bullish unlocks and things like that. And yes, some unlocks are inconsequential. And look, some investors like I know early, I know one of the biggest funds in crypto has been in Avalanche since the ICO and has never sold.

And they are one of the largest holders of Avalanche. And they're a huge believer in Avalanche. There's others in Avalanche and other projects in the same way. So just because things are unlocking doesn't mean it's going to sell. But with that said, if you have a token where 100% of it is liquid versus a token that 2% of it is liquid, all things equal, I would think that the token where 100% is liquid, I would feel more confident that price is going to stay constant versus 2% of the thing being liquid. I mean, that alone probably explains the phenomenon that you just showed on CoinMarketCap, because those are all up in the top 10 when they're low float and their market cap is high, but their FTV or market-

Well, no, but that's not FTV, that's market cap on CoinMarketCap. Yeah, no, no, I'm just saying, but like all those tokens when they were at their peak were low supply and high demand. And then throughout the bear market, all that supply gets open. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Because they're not showing FTV on CoinMarketCap. They rank them- Sorry, I know they're not showing it. I'm just saying it explains why coins can be hyped at the top of a list. And then with the next three years, as you go into a bear market and all that supply releases, and there's just this constant selling pressure with minimal demand, they end up out of the top 10 for market cap or whatever metric you're using. Just kind of explains the cyclicality of a lot of these tokens that are hyped for a very short period of time and then bleed out.

Yeah. Yeah. No. I mean, it's, it's, there's, I mean, like, we can take a look, but I mean, there's, there's, there's, there will be a lot of unlocks coming up this year. I think I actually, I might have a little chart on this. I even have the ThaiIE terminals unlocked here. No, but I built something which shows which tokens have the most unlocks in aggregate this year, which I think is interesting. Let me see if I can make some. I'll make something very quick.

Creating this in real time. That's what you do. I've showed these guys a million times. This is my tie dashboard that I stare at all day, every day. All my news and screeners. They got the great ETF one showing ETF total now under, well, it's loading because I have this crap internet at the moment, but sub 50 billion,

you'll see it come up right here. I bet still pretty close to flipping GBTC. Crazy GBTC is back down to 17 billion now. It was at 27. So total market cap 48. But once you get that built, let me know. I'll bring it up. Yeah, I got it. I got it here. So I just, I don't know if you've seen this, by the way. We have this new tool where you can write a sentence in English, and it converts it into a SQL query and outputs data. So I asked which- That artificial intelligence?

That is. Intelligence is a stretch. Sometimes it works. But here we can see, I mean, Solana still has a lot of unlocks this year. Aptos, Arbitrum, Jupyter. And these are in US dollar value. So keep in mind, some of these tokens are very large. And by like unlocks for Bitcoin, that's mining rewards, right? So there's still a lot of Bitcoin mining rewards that are coming to market. I can build something later if you want to share it

another day with the community, which is like the percent of supply as well. But you can see some of the tokens that have very large amounts of their token supply coming to market this year. But I think the big one I'm looking at is this world coin number is crazy. It's 2 billion plus coming to market this year on a token that's trading at a liquid market cap of its market cap is 890 million and there's 2 billion coming to market this year so yeah sam it's a it's a lot but but look if world coin partners with open ai which apparently they're exploring you know who knows i go to he owns them both whatever that means uh you know we'll see maybe you'll need coins to maybe you'll need world coins to pay oh what if you yeah

exactly you need to use your eyeball to use AI. Just quick before I let you go, I know we're over time, but what's your expectation for the next few months or at least your base case? We know nobody has a crystal ball. Mine has been boring and then we start to see some appreciation

get in the fall. Yeah, look, I think boring. I would love to be wrong. Within the industry talking to people on a day-to-day basis people in the industry are not bearish like they're not like like in the last bear market post ftx collapse every single company was so stingy with budget was afraid to spend, was nervous about what was going on. And right now we're not seeing that.

Like, we're just not seeing that in the market. Like, we're not seeing a huge number of traditional institutions come in. So I don't want to get anybody's hopes up. Like, we're not seeing a large number of new hedge funds or new participants come in the market. But with that said, like, people are operating as if this market is going to continue. I mean, that's what we're seeing. Yeah, for sure. That doesn't mean that they're right, right?

But we're being relatively aggressive from a hiring perspective right now. I mean, I think I wouldn't be doing that if I thought that the market was going to go back into a deep bear market like it was in post FTX. And look, I think it also depends. Look, the election is coming up soon. I mean, we're getting close to election day. And I think, look, it doesn't matter where you land on the political spectrum, right? But I think this election is certainly going to have an impact on the SEC, right? And I think if the odds start looking like, look, if Trump somehow picks Vivek as his running mate, which isn't going to happen, but if he does, or depending on who he puts at his running mate, depends on what he comes out and says, and if he starts to take a big lead, could be really bullish for crypto, really bullish

if the expectation is that the SEC is going to put forth regulation that is more pro-crypto. I mean, I think that's the biggest thing. The election to me is the single biggest thing. Or if there's some change of power in the Democratic Party, I'm not saying that Biden is a change in power, but if there's a change in policy towards crypto or anything else, that's the biggest thing to me. If the US introduces pro-crypto legislation, it is just like a complete 100% flip the script game changer for the market. Absolutely agree. We'll see what happens. Let's hope the top's not in forever and we're all dead and we're going to bleed out and be depressed again. I don't think so.

I don't. I think the more people who do think so, the better for a bounce. Yeah. Yeah. And look, it just depends on your investment horizon. If you're investing for next week, maybe don't put money in alts and Bitcoin. But if you're looking at this as a 12 month, 24, 36 month investment cycle in your US base, you also pay long-term cap gains versus short-term cap gains tax, right? So I'm not planning on selling my Bitcoin and my other crypto positions anytime soon. You and me both, man. All right. Thanks, guys. Check out Josh, of course, on Twitter. It's down in the description. I'm just thinking about Joel Embiid and the Knicks right now. I got nothing interesting to say.

We brought him on the right day because he can be appropriately pragmatic and bearish and bullish at any given time, but on the wrong day because he's so depressed about the Knicks that he can't give us an accurate appraisal on the market. Yeah, don't listen to my market prediction. They're still up 3-2. They're still up 3-2, but they did get Reggie Millard. We got Reggie Millard yesterday. It was terrible. It was the most classic, Nick. In life, I've learned if you have low expectations, you can never be disappointed. And for the first time,

I had real expectations about the Knicks. And as a lifelong Knicks and Jets fan, I should learn my lesson. Well, you know, welcome to crypto, man. Keep the expectations low. And crypto and full-time in crypto. I mean, my entire life's a disappointment, right? We're all very jaded. All right, man. Thank you so much.

Bye. And now to look at the charts and see if you should all be depressed as you're obviously feeling. Chris, it's over. It's dead. Again. Yeah. You know, we might as well just pack it up and go home. Right. Come back in another few years. Straight to zero. It's unbelievable. No, I'm just doing, you know, uh, what I've been talking about for over a month now. I said, uh, you know, we're range bound. I said, uh, my first, uh, scenario, if we're range

bound, um, is to see us get a dip below it and then you know on the daily time frame or so um see a wick back up or a a candle down and the next day a candle back up into the range um so right now we've got the breakdown we're retesting the um that's that big channel off that you know i've shown you many times before the big channel off that I've shown many times before, the big channel off the 2022 bear market low. So it's coming back and retesting that resistance as support at the moment. We just got the pivots updated on the daily

time frame. The S1 pivot is just down here on this chart, right around 55.6 or so, 55.7. So if we kept it coming down lower, that's what I'm looking for. That'll also get us the bottom of this descending channel and then look for a rally back up into the range.

What we need to see basically is a breakout, impulsive breakout, above this pivot here on the daily at around 64.200 or so, depending on what charts you're looking at. But if you can get impulsive breakout above that, that takes you out through the descending channel resistance there. You should be looking mid-80s at least on the rally. That's kind of

where we're at. If we break down, again, I've already talked about it. If we continue to break down rather than just kind of dip down and trap the breakdown traders and rally back up, we'd have the 51,000 to 52,000 range right here. Everybody's yelling about that range, though.

It concerns me. I mean, listen, it's the most obvious thing ever, right? I mean, if you look at the weekly, that's the one place we've consolidated literally on the move from 38 all the way up. It was the top down here. But like, how often do we get the exact area that everybody's watching?

So that means we either bounce right now or right here, or we go all the way down to 44. Pretty much. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, again, it's the levels are right now, but it's not that difficult, right? I, you know, people are, they lose their damn minds online, right? They've been losing their mind for over a month, a month and a half. And what's really happened?

Nothing's really happened. We've just now dipped below. They got everybody promised them, you know, it has to crash down to 30,000 or, you know, the top has to be in now. If it broke down below the, below the 59,000, it did. Oh my God, it's the end of the world. No guys, that isn't how it works. Could it go down? Sure. But if you're overly worried about what price is doing, as Scott mentioned so many times on here, and I like to mention a lot is you've got too big a position size. If you are so concerned about what price, you've got too large a position size, you're too over leveraged

and or you're not using any kind of proper risk management. If you don't do those three things, everything's fine. Everything's's perfectly fine and that's how you make it in trading but everybody wants to hit a home run every time they uh every time they swing for the you know every time they're up there they won't swing for the fences and if it doesn't and if it doesn't do it right away you know they get very very um upset and very nervous you know what are we going to do but right right now, I mean, you can see right here, daily RSI, daily stoke RSI, resetting down into oversold. You can see that volume has dropped off dramatically through this range. We've got a spike of volume now on this break, on this, on the breakdown through here. But again, usually this kind of setup, the volume is coming

at the lows of the range, not really at the top of the range. So there's not a lot of selling going on up here. Usually in distribution, what you're going to have is the selling at the lows of the range, not really at the top of the range. So there's not a lot of selling going on up here. Usually in distribution, what you're going to have is the selling at the tops of the range and not a whole lot of buying at the bottom. You've got accumulation or reaccumulation. Usually what you're going to see is the opposite. You're going to see more volume at the lows of the range than what you're going to see up here at the top of the range, because they're not selling, they're buying. And so you get this final when you have a series of higher or lower highs and lower lows through the range coming down through what we call phase B, usually you're going to get a spring. And that's the fake out. That's the get people to go short. Because right here,

you can see the price is not making higher highs. So the market's still a little bit heavy on the shorts, right? Or not strong enough on demand. So you send it down there to trick them all into it. They all go short. You send it back up. Then they have to cover. Then they have to go long and it powers it right back up through. So, I mean, again, that's the way I'm looking at it at the moment and we'll see how it plays out. This market is moving super fast, by the way, because I was pointing out the other day, you could get long on bullish divergence here, went up, hidden bearish divergence was here. Now we're back to finally oversold with bullish divergence on the four hour across a ton. I don't know that this is the bottom, but I think that we could get some really nice relief here. I mean, I'm seeing this on a lot of charts.

I don't know if it was on. Oh, and I wanted to show you this chart too. Yeah. Just because I pulled up the Ichimoku cloud for the first time and God knows how long and look at ETH on the weekly here. Yeah. Look where it's finding support on all three of these candles and the Kijun right there.

But for anyone who doesn't look, a flat cloud top like that in a high timeframe is really nice support. Yeah, it works. Yeah, exactly. The flat on the top, if you're coming is really nice support yeah it works yeah exactly the flat the flat on the top if you're coming back down on it it works as support um if you're coming up from below it works as resistance um yeah absolutely fantastic but yeah so that that that gave me a little encouragement certainly and that if btc is bouncing and actually if i think is uh has retraced less than Bitcoin. Yeah, they all...

We'll draw down. We got this little breakdown with Bitcoin. The alts haven't really done a whole lot. I mean, they're all looking basically the same. Dominance has dropped, actually, interestingly. Like, I just happened to look. I thought, you know, maybe it's the alts that are so popular. Like Solana, those are down so big, and that's what everyone's in.

So the perception is that alts have done way worse. But actually, on this retracement, dominance has dropped for people who aren't paying attention. So alts as a whole have not underperformed Bitcoin on this drop that badly. Yeah, yeah. And this is what you're seeing. I mean, if you put on just, you know, listen, guys, if you go up to indicators, type in pivot, just pivot point standard. It's all you got to do that pulls these up right here on whatever time frame you're on. But you just look at the daily and you can see we're all sitting here under the daily.

We've got the S1. So here's the easiest way to trade this is this right here. There is a swing high just above that daily on pretty much all of them. If you break out above that, minimal expected target should be the top of the, you know, the recent high up here, but you should expect to break out higher. If you happen to drop below the swing low,

look for the rally off the R1. I'm sorry, the S1. And that's all you've got to do for all these. If you get it now, there is this low volume node here right around, this is Chili's CHZ. Yeah. Right there around 0.0955 so if it were to pull down that'd be the first place i'd look but if it were to close breakdown

and close below that i mean we got all this price acceptance here um we could potentially see it dipping down the s1 but if i want to go long i'm just looking for a breakout above this one right here. It's a 13.1 cents. And if I get that, I'm looking to rally up, um, right here, FLR, same idea, basically here, except it's made its lower low here. Uh, you can see that the 50% pullback is right here around the S one. Again, you've got this, uh, your initial target you want to look at is this kind of two and a half cent area, this low volume node. But if you can break down through that, you might reach the S1. But in this case, again, in this case, it's the pivot. If you can get an impulsive breakout and close above that pivot, that means, you know, larger candle spread, larger spike of volume compared to the volume around it.

And close above that, you should be looking minimally up here toward about 5 cents, but you should expect probably to break out higher and probably rally all the way up through at least through the 7.5 cent area on it. Yeah, now it's just time to start looking for some big supports down below and start to get interested, set those stink bids, et cetera.

It's interesting people saying it looked like alts capitulated before Bitcoin. Tenacious saying alts bled worse from 69 to 66, more than 65. I mean, that actually is true if you take a look because, like I said, Bitcoin has five weeks now down, basically. The top is over here, but basically five weeks. And dominance had raged and now only three weeks down. So it does basically

show that there was this major hype in dollar coins, you know, five, six weeks ago, and they sold off first heavily and then Bitcoin trailed and probably there wasn't that much liquidity left in all. So people are selling. So. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. And right now, what I'm showing everybody is the easiest way, especially if you're not very well versed in markets and structure and stuff like that. This one I'm telling you right here is actually the easiest way to probably figure out where do I go wrong. Pivots are math. Pivots are math. It's not arbitrary like where you draw your support and where you draw your resistance.

The pivots are based on the price action. They're mathematical. So for new traders, it's really the easiest thing. It really is. It really is. You see right here, you hit this low volume note area a few times. So again, looking at this, it's right here by the pivot. So again, this here is Adam. So almost 9.3, 9.4 cents. You get a breakout and close above that impulsive, man, I would just be looking minimally up here at probably almost $14 and really expected to break out higher and probably run beyond 20 off that. But if it does break down here, you're looking for that reversal at the S1

pivot. So if it comes down here, hits the S1 pivot and then breaks out above this previous interior swing high here, boom, you should be good to go. And finally, I've got a dot here. Again, I was looking for, I was trying to find alts that look different, and what I was noticing was they all basically look just about the same. They all look like they had bearish consolidation there, capitulation volume to the bottom and floating up on low volume. That's how bear flags and bearish pennants are formed. And yeah, I would get another breakdown. I want to see if they hold the low or. Yeah, yeah, exactly. And so, you know, once again, came down here, he hit, we hit,

he hit a few times the low volume note here. So, you know, I wouldn't be interested in going long until we're breaking above a seven and50 basically, or $7.58. And then initial target right there around $10.63. And then, of course, breaking out further should have you run through the R5 pivot up there just beyond $16. But, you know, again, watch for one potential more push down. If you drop down below that swing low, look to get a reversal around the S1 pivot here. And then you want to get that breakout back up there and again, go long. I mean, it's the least stressful way right now to look at entering alts right now because so many of them look just like this.

So you've got this set up now. You understand what you're looking for. Now all you have to do is be patient. Oh, man. Patient. Yeah. I got to show you something. I got to show you something that I just was looking at while you were talking. Oh, man to May. And then I started scrolling back and throughout the entire last

cycle, I can't find five red candles in a row. Maybe, I mean, literally not even at COVID. There's a pretty big event. There's four here. It never happens. I mean, it literally never happens. I can't find it. Like I'm back in 2018 here. so this is a i mean you know some relief should come it's pretty historic crazy generally speaking you kind of expect it but again you know we're looking at the range you know i've said what i think it looks like uh to me right now and we'll see if it follows through with that and um you know again uh if it does i think a lot of people are going to get caught everybody's looking for minimally this 51,000 area, but I'm hearing so many calls since we were,

I guess probably the last couple of days, really talking about 30,000. It just doesn't make any sense. All the way down here. I'm starting to hear the 30,000 calls. I'm starting to hear it, so I like that. Here's the thing. Everybody's like, oh, we haven't had the big pullback. We need to have a big pullback because we always have big pullbacks. But see, that's just a misunderstanding or lack of

understanding of what actually goes on in markets, right? You have energy when price is pulling back. That energy is dispersed in one of two ways, either a sharp pullback, which is what everybody's kind of used to seeing, or it's dispersed sideways. And so that's why this killed so many people right here. And then they were afraid to jump out here because that was going to come back. And you remember, I told you, I was like, now we're going to have this, you know, this consolidation as we were rising and continue up. And that's what we got here. I mean, this is basically the big drop here or this here but i mean it's all sideways is what it is even here it's still sideways like i think you mentioned what 20 20 what percent on the on the pullback there i think it's 25 24 ish right now yeah i mean so very small for bitcoin uh but we've been going a lot sideways and we do this a lot

more than what we normally do so i think you, we're just seeing this time around, we're just seeing that energy and being dispersed sideways because we've got more buying, you know, more demand coming in for those ranges there. And so, you know, it doesn't allow that big, you know, slapping your face pullback everybody's looking for. And I think that's keeping a lot of people out of the market, honestly. Yeah. 23.35. 17,000% drop from the top at 73,726 down to 56,500. Yeah. And on the weekly, if we want to look at the weekly there, Stoke RSI is reset into oversold. We've got, you know, semblances of hidden bullish divergence here. Not exactly. You got this wick down here. It kind of throws things off, but basically you've got much higher lows in price. You've got lower lows here on your oscillator. We're above neutral. So

we're still bullish on the weekly. And I mean, you know, all we've done is pull back again, just right into this area here, just right into this kind of support here where we have a lot of candle bodies that are all kind of like hovering right around each other here. And all we've done is pull back like halfway into that. So, you know, I get it. People want to look right here to find, you know, the big moves, but, uh, you can't ignore what's happened over here. Absolutely. So yeah. So I like that stoke bottoming that that's pretty consistent. Yeah. The stoke RSI there. Yeah. Yeah. I like that. I mean, so for me, you know, I'm not, I'm not concerned. Uh, I trade the charts and what it is. And I understand my timeframe. I've got my risk management. Um, so no reason to like freak out. It's the end of the world kind of thing. No chicken little over here.

All right. Me either. All right, guys. Don't be chicken little expand your timeframe. Don't overtrade, avoid the leverage. You'll be all right. Guys followx west capital on x otherwise uh maybe chris will uh see you on on um spaces soon and you'll actually get to talk instead of listening to john reed talk for two hours good times right all right man i'll see you soon guys see you on spaces in 20 minutes thanks chris bye