The Wolf Of All Streets - Crypto Shocker: XRP Skyrockets & FTX To Make Massive Multi-Billion Dollar Payouts

Starting point is 00:00:00 After four long years, the Ripple and XRP case is finally settled. Ripple agreeing for now to pay $125 million, a far cry from the $2 billion that the SEC was requesting. When I read this, I see a huge loss for the SEC again. But of course, I have to actually ask a legal expert if that is the case. We've got James Murphy, aka Metta Lawman, to unpack this and the huge news with FTX. You guys don't want to miss it. Let's go. Gary Gensler had another bad day, or perhaps I'm reading it wrong. Of course, I'm going to bring on my friend James, and we're going to talk about it. Here we go, man. After four years, a case that started under Jay Clayton and the Trump administration, many people forget, seems like we finally have a bow tied around this. Is that somewhat accurate?

Starting point is 00:01:22 Well, Scott, we've got to stop meeting like this. This is one thing after another popping up in this in this world of crypto law. Yeah, look, four years of the crypto retail community just taking punishment from this case may be at an end now. And I think that any rational observer would say the result yesterday was a win for Ripple and a win for the XRP community. You saw the verdict in the market with respect to price action of XRP. But I'll tell you what, this is a case that never should have been brought. It was confirmed by the judge yesterday that the SEC has absolutely no evidence of any losses in association with the securities violations

Starting point is 00:02:28 that were found. So if you think about the world of crypto and all the possible targets out there to pick one where no securities violations resulted in any harm whatsoever, this should never have been brought and feeds into a really legit question that the XRP community has been asking forever. Why the free pass to Ethereum and this jihad against Ripple where there's no damages? That's the $0 disgorgement that you described here, number one, correct? So as you said,

Starting point is 00:03:06 $0 disgorgement as expected because no losses shown by the SEC. So you're saying that whether it was a security or not, it didn't hurt anyone and we should have moved on with our lives long ago, which is interesting because there was a lot of conjecture, or at least that people said, that every time you'd see sort of the price of XRP rise, which I know is different. But XRP, you know, the ripple would just kind of send some to exchanges and sell right into that move, which a lot of people took, I guess, issue with. But maybe that's something that's different than this. Yeah, Scott, we talked about this a while back, this disgorgement issue, which is a huge, huge issue for the SEC. And we talked about the fact that if they didn't prove actual losses, they were going to get a goose egg.

Starting point is 00:03:55 We discussed that. And lo and behold, the judge got it right, followed the the Second Circuit court precedent, which she had to, and found that they get zero. And then that kind of impacts what the penalty is going to look like. So we're going for over $800 million in disgorgement. They got zero. And then with respect to the penalty, they wanted a one-time penalty equal to the disgorgement plus interest, which got you to the $2 billion. And so what you're left with here is zero disgorgement, a penalty of $125 million. And so the thing to know about that, Scott, is it is close to really the lowest that the judge could do. There are three tiers of penalties based upon, you know, the level of misconduct alleged and proven. And she applied the lowest level, level one. And there, you know, if you've committed fraud, you know, it goes up to two and three.

Starting point is 00:05:10 And so this is close to the lowest that she could do. And so I think it is very much a win for Ripple. I think they would have paid this amount on day one to settle if in exchange, if in exchange they got a declaration that trading on exchanges and their programmatic sales are just fine and dandy, I think they would have taken that deal four years ago. I mean, $125 million they made in the first five minutes after this decision came out in price action, probably way more. It's a complete nothing burger, a non-event. Could it have been zero? I mean, could the judge have literally said this should be thrown out, no penalty, or is this kind of the best case scenario for Ripple? It's close to the best case scenario. I think that she would have being reversed on appeal if she gave a zero penalty. So this one is probably bulletproof.

Starting point is 00:06:11 The $125 million penalty, that aspect of this case is probably bulletproof on appeal. So there are other things that could be appealed here. And the SEC has 60 days to make that decision starting yesterday. So still an open question as to whether they will do that. Okay. So here's my question. You say at the bottom of your tweet here, sort of summarizing, my guess is both sides will appeal. I think that's probably true, but I want you to unpack that because A,

Starting point is 00:06:47 it will look horrible for the Harris campaign if this gets appealed by the SEC and they continue their attacks on the industry. So they might want to just let this go politically, although I don't think that's Gensler's mandate for what the SEC will do. And on the other side, this seems like Ripple should just pay the $125 million, as you said, and let this go. There's really no downside to just getting out of the way. What would they be appealing? Having to pay $125 versus having to pay nothing? Because it seems they've won everything else. Right. Yeah. I think everybody on Twitter has disagreed with me that there will be an appeal. Here's why I think, here's why I guess that there will be. It's not legal advice, obviously, and nobody should trade on XRP,

Starting point is 00:07:31 hold, sell, buy, do anything based on what some guy on YouTube says. But my guess is that they will appeal. And there are two things that that appeal would include, at least two. One is this decision on disgorgement is very, very impactful for the SEC's entire enforcement program. If they can't get disgorgement without proving losses, it impacts significantly pending cases as well as other cases that they would like to bring. And you might recall that we discussed this on a prior show that while the Ripple lawyers deserve tremendous credit for how they've managed this case, and John Deaton's part was very important in this case. Did a wonderful job, great job by all involved, including the leadership of Ripple to not buckle under and settle and fight

Starting point is 00:08:35 this thing. Give them all the credit, but there was a lucky break here as well. And that was at the end of last year, the SEC, the Second Circuit changed the law. For my entire career, which was long, there was no requirement that on a securities violation like this, that the SEC had to show any losses. The Second Circuit changed that last year. In between the time that the summary judgment was decided in this case and the remedies was decided, they get a binding precedent from the Second Circuit that basically kicks out disgorgement. So the SEC hates that and they think it is wrong. And there is a split in the

Starting point is 00:09:20 circuits. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that you don't have to do that, show losses. The SEC doesn't have to. So there's a split in the circuit. And so I think the SEC is likely to want to take that up on appeal. Is this the best case in the world to take it up on appeal? Maybe, maybe not. That's number one. But the even bigger issue, Scott, is the trillion dollar question. Is it okay to trade tokens on the secondary market? Are those securities transactions? And Judge Torres said, with respect to XRP, the sales by Ripple, the company, as well as Ripple executives on exchanges are not investment contracts, do not violate the securities laws, are okay. And so that impacts the other cases, Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, others.

Starting point is 00:10:17 And the Binance judge followed Judge Torres's reasoning. And so the SEC doesn't want this to snowball. So this is- They don't want it to be a precedent, basically. Correct. So this issue is the most important issue, really, to all of crypto. And so the only question is whether the SEC concludes that this is the best case to take that question up. And remember, Scott, they already tried once. I'm not going out too far on a limb here. They sought interlocutory appeal after the summary judgment because they were so horrified by the impact of the ruling on XRP trades in the secondary market.

Starting point is 00:11:03 So I have a question here. Number three, injunction restraining Ripple from further violations of section five of the Securities Act. What does this mean for the actual company selling XRP now? I don't even know if they do that, but is it a securities violation if it's not on the secondary market? I'm not a lawyer. What does number three really mean here? Injection restraining Ripple from further violations of Section 5 of the Securities Act. Well, this is a little complicated. And I honestly, I don't want to go too far on this. I will explain to you what that means.

Starting point is 00:11:37 But I really think the company, Ripple, needs to, in due course, explain how they're going to function going forward. I think there are avenues. But anyway, when you violate the securities laws, one of the things the SEC asked for is an injunction prohibiting you from future violations because if you do it again, it's going to be much worse. You'll be liable perhaps for a contempt citation. The level, we talked about those three levels, penalties will go up. So there are a few impacts here. Number one, there's something in the securities laws called the bad boy provisions, bad actor provisions, which says if you are subject to this kind of injunction, certain

Starting point is 00:12:26 exemptions for issuances of securities are no longer available to you. Like Reg D is one of the well-known exemptions of a limited offering to accredited investors. There are other exemptions that are taken off the table as a result of an injunction like this. One of the complications for Ripple is that the judge was really clear that when she ruled on summary judgment that the institutional sales were violative of the securities laws, she included ODL sales. Now, editorial comment here, I think she's wrong about that. I don't see how ODL sales can satisfy the Howey test because you don't hold the XRP for profit. You hold it to use it to make cross-border trade. So I think she was wrong about that. Nevertheless, she's saying it's included.

Starting point is 00:13:26 That means it's included when you think of the injunction. So does that mean that Ripple has to stop ODL sales? I don't think so. They've got smart lawyers and I think they'll figure out a way to do it. It can be done in foreign countries. And she got it wrong, in my opinion. So in any event, it makes it a little bit more complicated. So one of the things people are saying is that, well, they'll just do registered offerings of XRP, registered XRP as a security. I don't think that's going to happen. And I don't think it'll happen certainly unless and until Ripple goes public. And I don't think that's going to happen while Gary Gensler is in charge. Or if someone like Gary Gensler comes in, then it's going to be very, very hard. I think it could be wrong that they go public with

Starting point is 00:14:30 this level of hostility that it exists now. So anyway, you asked about appeal. Those are the two things that the SEC might appeal. If the SEC appeals, then it is highly likely that Ripple will cross appeal and argue that the judge got it wrong about the institutional sales and certainly got it wrong about the ODL sales. Neither of those were, in fact, investment contracts that satisfy the Howey test. So this happens all the time. If the other party appeals and you didn't have a complete and utter total victory, then you cross-appeal. Appeal the appeal. Yeah, that's how that works.

Starting point is 00:15:15 Yeah, of course. The legal system is so complex. wrap a bow around this. Four years of Ripple could have been so bad for the industry, and effectively everything here was exactly what the industry would want. Whether it's precedent or not, it will be viewed as such until another judge or another case. The SEC is on their heels, and it makes future cases a lot harder for them to win. I mean, is that a fair statement that this is just huge for the industry? Yes, it is fair. And all credit goes to Garlinghouse and Larson and Stuart Alderati and all of the lawyers and team they hired because I've been there.

Starting point is 00:16:00 It is hard to resist the government and pay those enormous legal fees month after month after month. And it's just an onslaught in discovery and publicity and all of these things. And so it takes a tremendous wherewithal and courage, quite frankly, to fight the fight that they have. And this is a really good result for them. And they should be really proud of what they've accomplished. Amazing, I hope, by the way, by the way, I'm expecting a press release from Gary any moment saying they want, you know, and they're really going to make a video. It'll have little, you know, cartoons about how you can't sell securities.

Starting point is 00:16:46 Of course. A couple other things. You got $125 million. A couple other things. I've got so many questions in. $125 million doesn't go to the SEC. It goes to the United States Treasury. There's 60 days for the SEC to decide whether they're going to appeal.

Starting point is 00:17:02 An appeal to the Second Circuit tends to take around a year and a half. So, and then if it goes to the Supreme Court, you know, you're on for more years added on. So those are some of the questions that I got where people are trying to understand what this all means and what the go forward looks like. But got to hold your breath for 60 more days and

Starting point is 00:17:25 see whether they appeal. Then we'll just have to wait 18 more months to figure out what that means. Like I said, for now, it was even on the first decision. Everybody argued with it. There are people who disagreed, but it's what the industry and the market looks at. It's the single thing you have until there's more information. Whether it was the law or not, people said these are not going to be securities on secondary sale until you tell me otherwise. Right. And for the market, I think to most people here, that's what really matters. Right. And now we have this guy. FTX Alameda ordered to pay 12.7 billion to creditors by U.S. judge. The order doesn't include civil penalties, but bans FTX and its sister concern, Alameda, formerly a heavyweight crypto market maker,

Starting point is 00:18:10 from trading digital assets and acting as intermediaries in the market. Okay, could they have done that yesterday? Because it seems like they were already done there. We didn't have FTX acting in the market. But what does this mean now for creditors? We've seen news that creditors would get paid back in full, but we know that that's paid back in full based on the price of their claims in 2022 when Bitcoin was sub $20,000, right? But does this mean that we're also getting some conclusion here for creditors are going to get some money back and we can move on? Yeah. Yes. So one thing, Scott, here, the CFTC deserves credit for how they handled the case. So the CFTC is the plaintiff in this case that just settled. And the CFTC structured the relief this way. Like eight and a half billion is restitution and the other is

Starting point is 00:19:09 disgorgement, which means all of the money is going to be fed to creditors rather than the CFTC taking a slice for themselves, like the IRS has done in that- IRS, remember they had a claim for like 30 billion on this. I don't know what happened to that, but, and they put themselves ahead of the creditors. Well, I mean, it's, it's evolved, it's evolved in a, in a positive way, but I think they're taking a 200 million scalp, the IRS, and then subordinating the rest of their claim. But I just want to say for Rost and Venom, it's to his credit that he put the actual victims first, unlike what we see from another agency. And basically,

Starting point is 00:19:54 all this settlement means is that money is going to be funneled in through and and uh you know appropriated through the bankruptcy process it's not separate uh it's just going to be administered um through the bankruptcy and used uh to pay creditors and it aligns with what the uh reorganization plan or distribution plan says anyway you know so this is a little bit of a formality just confirming, yeah, the CFTC is cool with how this money is going to flow to the victims of FTX. I mean, so this is basically what was expected. We're just giving credit to an agency for not taking their cut, which rationally they obviously shouldn't do since these are actual human beings who have lost billions of dollars. But what does this now mean moving forward? Is this the end of the claims?

Starting point is 00:20:52 Because this is the FTC and not necessarily the bankruptcy itself, right? So this is funneling into the bankruptcy, which still has to be dealt with. Right. But it looks like it's coming to a conclusion. I think that the creditors are voting now and there's a deadline in a week or two to vote on the plan 30 days. So that gets you into October. And so people are saying that there's a strong possibility that you could see actual distributions this year, you know, in December of cash, you know, going to people who are inclined to be involved in crypto. So, you know, there's a thinking that this might be a boost to the overall crypto markets. I don't know if people even saw it. It wasn't widely reported, but Voyager Creditors just started receiving second checks because of their settlement with FTX. It brings Voyager Creditors, also based on July 2022 prices, to about a 70% payback.

Starting point is 00:22:01 It was at about 35%, so they almost doubled their payback. I say they, but I guess I'm a we. So they almost doubled their payback. I say they, but I guess I'm a we. I haven't gotten my check yet. But it seems like good news all around from a legal perspective. I mean, we've got five, six more minutes. What other cases now are pending in your mind that could still have a meaningful impact on the market or how things are approached? I know there's a lot of them, Coinbase, Binance, but I think, how about that could actually get some sort of resolution or big news in the next three to six months? You know, what's weird is that Judge, as far as I know, is still sitting on Coinbase's request for interlocutory appeal of her decision denying their motion to dismiss,

Starting point is 00:22:46 which puts front and center the simple question of whether trades on the secondary market are securities or not. They asked for that to be certified to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. So for us law nerds, what's interesting here now is Ripple is in the pole position, is ahead of the others in terms of getting to a court of appeals and raising this issue. Now, the issue is slightly different for Ripple because Ripple addressed only sales by Ripple through what they call programmatic sales on exchanges and sales by senior executives of their XRP also on exchanges where the buyer doesn't know that they're buying from these particular sellers. So it's a little different from Coinbase where it's just you selling to me, me selling to you.

Starting point is 00:23:46 I don't know who you are kind of thing. You have the company involved to an extent on those programmatic sales. But nevertheless, the outcome should be the same in the second circuit. And the question that we've all been waiting to see is who's going to get there first? And so remember, the SEC already said they wanted an interlocutory appeal. This issue is so important. They got to get to the second circuit as fast as possible. Coinbase has said the same thing. Also in a court in the Southern District of New York. Meanwhile, Binance has gone the other way on the question. So it's weird that the judge has not ruled on the Coinbase request to get to the appeal

Starting point is 00:24:31 appellate court. But this is the biggest thing, really, in my view, Scott, is kind of once and for all, the Court of Appeals ruling that trades on secondary markets are not investment contracts we need that need that clarity you know district court judges are persuasive you know authority but they're not precedent that other courts are required to follow all right and since i've got you for a few more minutes and i can't have you here without talking about John Deaton. You alerted me to a straw poll for John. Can you break that down? I'll find your tweet right now. Yeah, absolutely. It was the Republican committee of a particular county within

Starting point is 00:25:16 Massachusetts. They had the three candidates come in and give their pitch. And you can imagine, I wasn't there, but you can imagine John's pitch is unusual and so compelling that he got three quarters of the votes. It's obviously a small sample, but it's no surprise that people embrace John's candidacy. They love John and they feel it. What they feel is this guy could win. This guy could actually beat Elizabeth Warren.

Starting point is 00:25:52 Whereas the other two candidates, I think, don't really have that aura. I'm not critical of them. But if you want to win, if you want to beat Elizabeth Warren, it's perfectly obvious to everyone that John Deaton is the guy. And you can't just be a normal candidate and go in and be an incumbent. You have to be a huge risk taker in something completely different. Right. Right. And he's way ahead on campaign finance fundraising, which is absolutely essential. And so nothing's a foregone conclusion, but he's going to win on September 3rd, which is when the primary is.

Starting point is 00:26:39 And then it's a real sprint. It's a 60-day sprint to the election. It would be great if people could contribute to John's campaign, johndetonforsenate.com. If you have maxed out, you need to max out first. If you've got that kind of money, then please

Starting point is 00:26:59 consider contributing to the super PAC that I funded, which is called the CommonwealthUnityunityfund.com. And you can max out again after the primary, right? You can, to John, you can give the 6,600 right now. It's 3,300 for the primary, 3,300 for the general election. So yeah, you know, many of us have maxed out the 6,600 and he needs it. You know, you've got to buy media. John is out there in the parks, at the parades and the pool halls and the pubs meeting the people.

Starting point is 00:27:35 But you got to get on TV and that's really expensive. And so, you know, for all those who are watching, if you are working at a crypto company, you know, you've got a stake in this. Your company has a stake in the outcome of this. Imagine how the landscape changes if Elizabeth Warren is retired. Then you don't have to be begging for a reset, you know, or pivot or whatever. It's done. When you put in John in the Senate in place of Senator Warren, we're going to have great legislation. It's, it's going to be a number of dominoes fall in the right way. And so anyway, companies can contribute to the super pack,

Starting point is 00:28:19 can't contribute directly to John's campaign and you've got skin in the game. And it would be what DM me, you know, contact me and I'll tell you more about what we're doing. But it really is in the interest of people who care about the future of financial freedom broadly to get involved and support John. Love it. As always, man, thank you so much for coming in and unpacking these issues for us. Don't think I'm ever going to get my law degree. So I'm going to keep you around. Sounds good. Thanks for having me on. Thanks, James. Speak to you soon. Guys, you can follow him, Metal Law Man on X. Absolutely great insight if you ever want to know what these legal cases actually mean and not just take 99%

Starting point is 00:29:01 of crypto Twitter's word for it because it's usually wrong. Thank you, Matt. All right, guys. And now moving on to the charts and the XRP one is a hell of a chart. I've got chart guys here. XRP, it says, there you go. It jumped 17%. But it's funny.

Starting point is 00:29:22 I don't know if you've looked at the XRP chart, but it gives me the ETHBTC vibe where you have this extremely long-term resistance that just can't break. Yeah, and yesterday the spike was right into a very clear horizontal resistant level. We're still battling. It wasn't too hard of a rejection, but just a very clear spot for bears to take a low risk short. When you shoot up and your hourly RSI is approaching 90 and there's a resistance level, what I say, you can see it from space because everybody can see the same level. It's nice and clear. You know that bears are going to take some chances with shorting that. And of course, bulls are going to take some profit, but overall, certainly very constructive and just got to get over this resistance zone, which is pretty much,

Starting point is 00:30:08 you know, 637 to 657. There it is straight across. So, you know, even if we do reject, as long as the daily retracement size isn't too significant, we can still, you know, keep it within striking distance, but I haven't looked at the XRP BTC chart in a while. So that was a really nice tightening range breaking bull, bigger picture here, still a lot of work to do, but at least coming off of that bottom, you know, monthly timeframe, it was just a drop forever, but at least bulls have something short term to be excited about. It's, it's just that battle with that six, five, seven level. I need to get over that sometime in August here to keep this move progressive. So what else are you looking at since we have XRP

Starting point is 00:30:53 blasting into resistance? We had job numbers come in for people who missed it, jobless claims. So they came in 7,000 under expectation, like 233 versus 240,000, something like that. But markets actually shot up, including Bitcoin. And are we in a world where good news is good news? Because usually if the job market is strong, which is what this is showing, that means interest rate cuts are less likely. And that means markets go down of late. Bad news is good news. Good news is bad news. We live in the upside down. Now we had good news for jobs and markets went up at least temporary. That's why I stick to the charts because so many times it's one or the other and it just flip flops in terms of whether it's good or bad for the chart. But overall, we had a lot has changed

Starting point is 00:31:40 since we last spoke a week ago with everything going on in the broader market and of course, the narrative of the yen carry trade and all that that's been going on. But for me, it still remains the Bitcoin monthly EMA 12 big picture. Obviously not ideal that we broke below 53.5, the low of consolidation, but a decent bounce at this point. And we know, again, just most likely scenarios. We know this bounce is going to result most likely in a daily lower high at some point in the next few days, likely. And then the most important thing from there is, can the bulls confirm the daily uptrend? And it's the same question for the broader market. We flushed in a huge manner on Monday.

Starting point is 00:32:17 We bounced up S&P 500 here. So huge flush on Monday, bounce up for a couple of days, set our lower high, and now we're tightening up and bulls really want to break that high to alleviate fear. When you get a huge wave of fear like that, correlations sync up and the narrative takes hold in the media. And then eventually that phase right now, the US markets are very inverse to the Japanese yen. And just like Bitcoin was very inverse to regional banks when that fear narrative was all over the headlines. And then over time, that correlation just fades because it's no longer in the spotlight, fear subsides.

Starting point is 00:32:56 And so I'm looking for the same thing to happen. But for now, fear is still fresh. And we really need to break these bounce highs in the broader market. If we're going to say a bottom is in for now. And the next major question in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ for me is when we do get the next weekly bounce going, do bears confirm the downtrend to follow through? Because right now this is just a sucker punch. This is what happened in the global markets over the last three weeks is what happens in crypto all the time. It's up only grind. Bulls get complacent. They have nothing to worry about. I mean, there was no pullback for months. And so you just get over leveraged. And so leverage flushed out of global markets. And now the question is, does it follow through or was that flush out the low before we can head higher? And everybody knows from the crypto market that so often those flushes would mark the longer term higher low on Bitcoin and then we would keep the all time run going. So it's going to be a

Starting point is 00:33:53 very important August here. And just first things first, break the high of the bounce from a couple of days. Actually, that was- Are you looking at your chart? I'm looking at SPX and my chart looks completely different. Is yours the futures? I just can't. Yeah, yeah. I use SPX 500 USD instead of ES just because it's the free version so everybody can look at it. But it's essentially the ES chart. Yeah, because when I look at SPX, my daily looks like this, totally different.

Starting point is 00:34:17 And the weekly certainly doesn't have that big wick down. Interesting. Yeah. It's a different looking chart. Yeah, I stick with the futures here just because so much volatility has been happening overnight in the future. The volatility, I mean, we went from anytime you're bored in markets, just remind yourself a wave of volatility is going to come because that's just four weeks ago, I was talking about this is the lowest volume that SPY has had in years.

Starting point is 00:34:45 There is no range. There's nothing going on. And now we have a period where Apple on Monday bounced 7.5% in 18 minutes. That is insane for the size of that market cap. NVDA is going 10% in both directions like it's nothing. And again, for one of the largest market cap companies in the world, to be seeing that kind of volatility is insane. It's trading like a micro cap. So volatility is here. The VIX obviously telling us volatility is going to be here for a while with its huge spike up. I do

Starting point is 00:35:17 believe that's the top for the VIX being set for a while. If it's not, there are major red flags in the market, but it's a period now where volatility spikes. And then again, I just expect that volatility to calm down. I expect fear to calm down a little bit. And again, it's all about, can we get that weekly bounce going? What's the retracement size of that weekly bounce? And do bears confirm the downtrend? And same thing for Bitcoin. Next weekly bounce that we get, what's the retracement size? Do bears keep the downtrend size? Do bears keep the downtrend going? Or can we put in a monthly higher low, which the bulls have been trying to

Starting point is 00:35:50 do for a few months, but unable to successfully do so yet? Now, I mean, it would kind of be, well, I guess monthly not, but like on a daily or something, now we need to close above that kind of 70,000-ish level, right? That last high we just saw. Yeah, and that's a long ways away. I mean, even to get there, we would have to run 20% just to get within striking distance. Lower high, lower highs, lower high. So the first higher high would be above this one we just put in right at 70,000.

Starting point is 00:36:19 Yeah, it's just a few days ago, really, a couple of weeks ago, but it seems like a hundred years now. Right. Time has definitely slowed down a bit or sped up. I don't know. It seems- I like that weekly candle that's forming up right there. Right. And the question last time, last week we were probably talking, is this an inverse head and shoulders? We got the answer. No, it's not. And now we just do the same thing. Is this going to be an inverse head and shoulders? And in an ideal world, as far as right now, I've just got my long-term no-touch positions and I was playing other things in the stock market on this dump down. But in terms of clarity, what I would love to see is a weekly bounce into a lower high

Starting point is 00:36:58 and then a higher low and give me that level to play off of before trying to break resistance. But I'm still being very patient in the overall longer term swing mindset of crypto. Again, just because my focus went... Essentially, when you've got the same amount of volatility in stocks as you do in crypto, I choose stocks every time because of the fee-free trading in the US. But definitely still interested and a nice solid bounce, just a lot of work to do. Yeah. What else are you watching while all this is happening? I mean, crazy volatility is usually a major gift for traders. Yeah. And short-term, swing trading is really hard in this environment because you go to sleep

Starting point is 00:37:39 and you wake up and it's 2%. The NASDAQ is 2% different than what it was 12 hours ago. It definitely makes it a bit harder. So definitely more short-term mindset for me while it's this volatile. But watching some of the commodities tightening ranges, this is gold on the daily. And we had the all-time high, failed the all-time high, but we're tightening up nicely. And I love my tightening ranges for getting ready for when they break. And so anticipating that next week or mid August, we'll be looking for gold to give us a clear break in the short term. And it's either going to be new all-time highs or a more significant shift into monthly consolidation. And oil, the same thing. I don't trade oil very much at all. I keep an eye on it for the energy

Starting point is 00:38:19 sector. I don't even trade the energy sector. But as a trader, what brings me to trading something is a setup that is in my wheelhouse. And this is just such a long-term tightening range on oil for a year plus at this point. And I would love for this to just keep tightening up through August and then give us a break in September. And I would likely trade oil for the first time in, I can't even remember the last time I traded it, probably over a year. I would begin being interested in trading it if this weekly chart continues to tighten up, because as we know, longer term tightening ranges, when they break, usually we get a good bit of follow through and that's some nice swing trade opportunity. Absolutely. Looks like that's about it for today, right?

Starting point is 00:39:01 Yeah. Keep an eye on the Japanese yen and the inverse relationship with the broader stock market. Again, I think it's going to start fading, but that is the narrative that the market has focused on for this week. And we'll see what it is next week. But again, from Bitcoin, top out on the daily, set the daily lower high, and then change that trend and regain a daily uptrend. If we're going to say that wave of fear has subsided and ready to try and make some recovery. Yeah, that's the dollar yen for the record for people. I mean, right into support, epic reversal candle forming. So yeah, that could be the signal that things aren't going to get so much worse soon, at least. And I think JP Morgan said that they think, I have it right here,

Starting point is 00:39:43 that that global carry trade, just in that day or two, basically that three quarters of it already unwound. So if that's really the narrative and what happened, there shouldn't be that much more damage. Let's hope so for the sake, because again, when there's a wave of fear like that, everything correlates and drops together. And then when the dust settles, you get things showing relative strength, but 2008 metals dumped, utilities dumped, everything dumps, all the safe havens dumped with it. So fear overrides everything. And we definitely had a big, uh, short little wave of fear there and, uh, hoping it has subsided for now. All right, man. Well, thank you guys. Follow, of course, Dan chart guys on X and on YouTube. Always appreciate your perspective.

Starting point is 00:40:25 We'll see you next week, right? I'm out of here next week. I'm, I'm renting a van in Oregon and week and a half by the river. Yeah. Gonna, gonna do some mountains and forests and do the nature thing.

Starting point is 00:40:37 Awesome. All right, man. We'll see you in two weeks. Thank you so much, everyone. We'll see you tomorrow for the Friday five later. Bye.

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