The Wolf Of All Streets - D-Day: The Moment That Will Make or Break Crypto's Future | US Elections Showdown

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

Joining me today are Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, and Andrew Parish, co-founder of The Arch Public, as we approach one of the most pivotal days for cryptocurrencies in the U.S.: Election Day. The outcome will shape the future of crypto for years to come. You don't wanna miss this stream! Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus  Matt Hougan: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #ElectionDay The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The United States presidential election is today, many calling it D-Day for the crypto industry. Does it matter who is president for how the crypto industry advances in the United States over the next four years? Are we being extremely hyperbolic in our own echo chamber? We're going to discuss it. Hopefully, we'll actually have an election result today, although I have my doubts. But who better to unpack all of this than Andrew Parrish from Archpublic and Matt Hogan from Bitwise. It's election day, guys. Let's go. Let's go. True. It's becoming bitwise Tuesdays alongside Archpublic. We had Jeff last week, which was an incredible, incredible episode. Let's get right into it, guys.

Polymarket, 62% basically Trump. That was down to about 56, even sub 56 a day or two ago. So it seems that the late bettors are coming in in favor of Trump. I have a feeling on the last day, this is a bunch of people betting on what they want to see. What do you think, Matt? Oh, I think you might be right. I mean, I think it's a coin flip. You can look at the betting markets are all leaning Trump. FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver are literally 50-50 with some possibility of an actual tie and it going to the House of Representatives. I do think the prediction markets are probably, you know, skewed a little bit. I think it's a toss up. It's going to be it's going to be crazy to watch.

Andrew, the toss up stuff, the numbers, the national numbers show 50 50. But that's not how elections are finished off here in the United States. It's electoral college math. And I think that's going to tip towards Trump. And here's the reason why I look at that. You take a look at the numbers associated with the battleground states, eight or nine of them at this point. And you take a look at the numbers for 16, you take a look at the numbers for 20. And Trump was anywhere five to seven points behind across all the battleground states. And he's effectively up in like seven of the nine battleground states heading into today. And, you know, for whatever reason, historically and historically meaning 16 and 20,

the polls have underrepresented quote unquote, you know, Trump vote. So if he's ahead in seven of those nine, and there's just a smidge of underreported, you know, Trump voters there, I think we're looking at a, you know, a fairly, I don't want to be hyperbolic, but a fairly decisive electoral college win my concern though is is if you get a popular vote win for um harris and you get an electoral college win for trump um that's a recipe for some real hyperbolic uh justice law conversations Yeah, it gets real muddy for the next 75 days before inauguration or 60 days, whatever the number is. Things will get real kind of muddy and you're going to be staring a lot of volatility in the face. I'm old enough to remember 2000 and what that looked like between Bush v. Gore and it going all the way to the Supreme Court. And literally, the market hung on every single syllable of every court and every hanging chad and the guy with the

glasses looking up at the thing. So yeah, I remember that very, very closely. And, you know, I think I think we could end up with a similar type of narrative coming out after the next, let's call it 48 hours. Yeah. I mean, just to wrap the polymarket thing in a bow so we can move on, obviously, to Bitcoin and crypto that we're even getting mainstream articles about this now. This is in Bloomberg yesterday. Experts worry election betting markets are skewed ahead of vote. Yeah, I mean, obviously. And I don't think people understand necessarily how predictive markets work. It's not saying that Trump's going to win with 61% or 62% of the vote, it's people saying, we believe that he'll win by one vote. It's binary.

So the number is just showing confidence in that very close victory. It's not saying a huge victory. Then really interesting, Polymarket paid US social media influence for election content and US citizens aren't allowed to use Polymarket. So Bloomberg's going in pretty hard.

This is today on polymarket. I don't know what the angle is, but on the day of election, multiple articles about polymarket. Yeah. So what's the narrative there if Harris was up in the polymarket odds? Are those articles coming out from Bloomberg? Is there negativity associated with polymarket as a product? Are they writing those same articles? I don't know. Feels like maybe not. Feels like there'd be a narrative of, oh, up in the polls a bit and up in Polymarket. So that seems to be

good. It's an interesting way to look at narratives and why and how right yeah also fun to look at the difference between the terminal and the editorial board right the terminal early to add the data because obviously it's hugely valuable to financial decision making which is from the editorial arm of bloomberg which is a different thing entirely yeah yeah now we've got to go ahead, Andrew. Yeah, there is. So, you know, I've been following a little bit of Charlie Gasparino because I knew him back in the day. And, you know, his commentary about, you know, Wall Street folks and executives, you know, they have their own polls, by the way. They don't just look at,

you know, Nate Silver or whoever. They actually run their own polls, by the way. They don't just look at Nate Silver or whoever. They actually run their own polls internally because they're meaningful institutions that run a lot of money for a lot of people. And so it's their job to be prepared for whatever outcome happens. And so his commentary associated with what they think the outcomes may or may not be are interesting. But oh, by the way, they effectively follow a, we're not entirely sure, but we kind of think one's a little bit ahead of the other. So we'll see what happens.

Okay. So Matt, what I want to ask you about is I was reporting all last week on the record inflows into ETFs, of course, a billion on, on Wednesday, a day alone. And so of course that means that we have to report on USP22F suffered record outflows out of a million. Monday, crypto markets are bracing for potential price fall. I think the latter is true. I think, you know, we can see over the next 24 hours, week, I don't even know, months, you know, these $ thousand, eight thousand dollar candles in both directions as people try to parse what's happening. But why would that lead to outflows? Is this just kind of the speculation crowd that's using the ETFs that's in and out, but the bulk of the people are just holding it through and not thinking about it?

I think it's mostly that there may be a little bit of hedge fund basis trading versus the futures that can move things in and out. But mostly, you know, this correlates with the move we saw on Polymarket, where the odds narrowed significantly from what was it like 69 down to into the 50s, I think it got to. And you saw the market pull back and people were selling out of the quote unquote traditional crypto market and they're selling out of the ETF market as well. I do think this is like a blip i think long-term flows are going to be really significant but i think that's all you're seeing people use etf to express their views on crypto the same way they use coinbase or futures or binance or other tools and so of course you're going to see you know outflows when the market gets a little bit nervous ahead of the election, which is, you know, what we saw. Yeah. I mean, it's interesting when you look at this,

that the record outflows are still like half the days of the record inflows. Yeah. In the amount. Yeah. And the numbers, I mean, the cumulative numbers are just wild, right? I bit is $30 billion now, which is absolutely insane. So yes, you know, a little bit comes out when the market sells off, but this is a long term trend that's moving up. Let me ask you that. Okay, go ahead, Andrew, then I want to ask Matt a question. Yeah, that that chart, first of all, you know, look at the look at the black to the upside. Yeah, it's like one day here. It's absolutely huge. And oh, by the way, that article is nothing more than a commercial

for liquidity associated with Bitcoin ETFs. I mean, you know, if you want to move one way or the other, they are a vehicle for liquidity and a very, very tight one. So, you know, one particular day where there's outflows, as Matt says, you know, you're probably looking at hedge fund activity, moving money around associated with positioning for, quote unquote, election volatility. Yeah. Matt, being out there, have you had questions from RIAs or any of your meetings on your roadshow about the election? Yeah. They all want to know about the election. Of course, they want to know about the election. But course, they want to know about the election.

But I will say that it's more a short term trade question than the long term trend. I think I've said to you earlier, Scott, the sort of proportion of meetings that have led to allocations amongst institutional investors over the last two months has been notably higher than it was in the preceding six months. I think you're going to see a blowout quarter for 13F filings when they're finalized November 15th. I think you're going to see a huge uptick in institutional ownership of ETFs from Q2 to Q3. And then Q3 to Q4 is going to be even larger. So they do want to know about the election. They want to know, should they position ahead of it, after it? But mostly they see it as a short-term blip, right? They see it on the long-term trend. So none of them are asking, hey, is this thing dead for the next four years if so and so wins? No, I don't think so. They may be asking that a little bit about assets below Ethereum. There are definitely more questions about the Solana and below assets

because they legitimately face more regulatory risk in a Harris regime than Bitcoin and Ethereum do. So the smart ones are asking about sort of differentiating between different crypto assets. And I think that's a reasonable question to ask, but they don't see it as debt. Look, we've just gone through four years of the most hostile Washington environment we've ever experienced. Bitcoin's up 400 percent. ETH is up 600 percent. Solana is up 11000 percent. Right. We've done all right. We'll do all right, regardless of what happens later today. But but it will impact the market. I mean, to your point, this is another article here on CoinDesk. Long Bitcoin, short

Solana, preferred tactical trade heading into US election. Right. Saying if she wins that there's an immediate trade to short basically all coins, but Solana in this case specifically because it reduces the chance of a Solana ETF getting approved in the next four years. Therefore, it should dump. But I mean, if this is how people are actually positioning it, it totally supports what you're saying. Yeah, not just the chance of an ETF, but the chance of regulatory clarity on Solana, which is the chance of Wall Street firms building on Solana, which is the chance of mainstream adoption. It's actually a fairly big story. I'm sort of wondering today if we can get a sense of where the election is going from that very dichotomy.

Like Bitcoin versus Solana is not a bad thing to monitor and see what the markets are thinking about what's going on. But Andrew, what I find interesting there is it's still long Bitcoin on the assumption that Harris wins. So it kind of supports what we've been saying, which is Bitcoin's probably fine no matter what. Yeah, I've been saying for months that there's no real downside narrative associated with Bitcoin specifically. Election, one way or the other, you have narratives that if Trump wins, potential for a blow off top. If Harris wins, you have consolidation of assets, as Matt correctly said, underneath Ethereum, that if those assets are consolidating and people are selling those assets, where does that money go? Where it goes into Bitcoin and to a lesser extent, Ethereum.

And so you still don't have a downside narrative. Now, mid to long term, are you looking at potentially slower movements to the upside? Potentially, maybe. Is there regulatory risk associated with the growth of a Bitcoin ecosystem longer term? Maybe, probably. But at the same time, you've ingrained Bitcoin and Ethereum into the traditional markets in a way that we all hoped for. Let's call it four to six years ago. That's now here. That's not going to be rolled back in some way. So, yeah, their their election or no election, the the narratives associated with Bitcoin aren't going anywhere.

Yeah. I would add on top of that, I'm not sure I fully believe in this thought, but it's the thought that's occurred to me a couple of times in the last week that the only sort of risk to the Bitcoin narrative is Elon Musk and radical restructuring of the federal budget to bring down deficits significantly. That risk doesn't exist in a Harris administration. You can count on the debt and deficit continuing to go up. So from that perspective, there's even another sort of token in the Bitcoin corner. I think Bitcoin is just fine in a Harris administration. I think it'll do great because we will need it. And I bet it's fine also. It's also fine in a Harris administration. I think it'll do great because we will need it.

And I bet it's fine also, it's also fine at Trump administration, but it does occur to me that you remove that, you know, that radical restructuring risk. Well, there's another, you know, arbitrage trade that I heard yesterday that seems very, very compelling. It's long Popcat and short Doji.

Did we hear that yesterday, Scott? I think Rand Nooner said that on crypto. Yeah, at the time. That was a little beyond my, you know. Did I just hear that right? It's not in my wheelhouse. Was that a secret? I don't even know how to long pop cat. So, you know, but listen though, to that point.

Only in crypto though. To that point, I want to follow up on what Matt said about Musk, because let's take a look at CoinMarketCap. You look at the seven day, the. To that point, I want to follow up on what Matt said about Musk, because let's take a look at coin market cap. You look at the seven day. The only thing that's up is Doge. Right. And so the flip side of the maybe Solana goes down trade is Trump wins and we get a Department of Government Efficiency called Doge and Doge goes mainstream again. Hey, look at the Doge chart. It's just absolutely it's popping right so

we do have like of all the things that are moving now you have doge up i don't know yeah it's the particular theory that you know the worst never happens the best never happens reality lies somewhere in the middle And oftentimes the funniest thing that could happen is often what happens. Right. And so, right? We do. You can think it's ridiculous, but it doesn't change the fact that we saw an entire cycle where Elon Musk was able to basically increase the price of Doge by thousands of percent.

Yeah. So if he's in government... Well, I look at it as, you know, Matt stands in front of, you know, organizations, wealth management organizations, RIAs, regionals, even wirehouses. And if he were to walk through the case for Doge in those meetings, they'd look at him like he had seven heads. So, again, there's context,

right? So context in the real world and then context in crypto pop cat versus, you know, Doge. Yes. The reality is the chart exists. And there, there is a scenario where we get movement one way or the other based on

election, but in the quote unquote real world it's, it's, it's kind of insane. It's ridiculous. Yeah. Good luck explaining that on your roadshow, Matt. Yeah. And meanwhile, we have a meme coin trading tool hype launching a president meme coin index ahead of Election Day. I'm still waiting for the bitwise meme coin ETF for some reason I haven't heard about yet, I feel like I would know. But a basket of Trump themed tokens is up 86.9% since the presidential debate in September. How many Trump themed tokens do we need? I do not know. I do not know. It's fun. It's amusing. At least we have something to

keep us smiling. But it seems like we still have this weird barbell where it's like meme coins have all this volume and Bitcoin has all this volume and everything in between continues to sort of languish in interest. I have a question to Matt. So there's an expectation that if Trump wins that just every particular obstacle to crypto gone wild has been is removed and there's this expectation that everything and anything is just is just higher because and i that that can't be the truth it just that that can't be the truth um so i wonder you know because i think to myself if we've got you know people have registered for you know xrp ets and Solana ETFs and you guys are at work. You know, if we get a Trump presidency and there is this removal of from a regulatory standpoint, how much deeper do we go as it relates to ETF focused product in the crypto world?

Does it have a stopping point even with unfettered runway? I'd be interested in your thoughts on that. Yeah, definitely. It's a great question. It definitely has a stopping point, right? I mean, if you think about the goal of securities regulation from a, you know, 40,000 foot view, it's to prevent insiders from controlling information about projects and keeping it from the end investor. And if you think about crypto projects from Bitcoin to the latest new coin, they're at a range of insider ownership and control. And there's definitely a level below which even I would think these things are securities and they should fit into the securities bucket. And those will never be ETFs. They'll need to find a regulatory pathway.

Maybe they'll just get shut down. But I do think when you get through most of the top 10, 20 assets, you're looking at assets that will find a regulatory pathway to broad-based exposure. That's what you see in Switzerland. That's what you see in Germany. I think that's what you'll see in the U.S. in a more balanced regulatory framework. That's my guess. But we will see. So is the is the reality that the scale of the ETF space for crypto grows, but it's not necessarily a huge, broad based, you know, you have additional collections of, let's call it ETFs pooled together, not cryptos pooled together for an ETF, an ETF of AI crypto, an ETF of whatever.

Yeah, top 20. Is that how it plays out? Probably. Meme coin index. Meme coin index is, yeah. I think it's a combination. Look, you know, I think there'll be significant demand for single asset ETFs down through, you know, let's say there are probably 10 of those that people would be interested in accessing today. But I do think you're going to see a lot of growth in index based ETF. If you look at any other asset class, that's the way most people allocate to the space. Crypto is unique in that Bitcoin is a unique proposition. But beyond

Bitcoin, I think there's a very strong argument to be made for index-based exposure to the space that it's very hard to forecast what EVM crypto asset will win long term or how that space will look at. I think that's really hard. And so indexes will make sense. Sector-based indexes will make sense. And I think you'll see all of that develop and grow. Well, your numbers over four years of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana would suggest that, right? So you would want to have access to Solana. And if you were, hey, let me just a little bit evaluate risk. So let me buy a pool of those three to five assets. So I'm going to get upside exposure to Solana that was fairly significant versus

those other two assets. But I don't want to individually own that particular ETF. That's exactly right. Yeah. Also uniquely valuable for institutional investors who want to present themselves as doing something slightly more sophisticated than a retail investor just buying CoinX. This fits much more cleanly in their framework. I think it'll be the dominant way, actually, that people end up allocating to the space outside of Bitcoin. I think it will be index-based strategies. Here's a question, Matt. Let's say the worst case scenario that everybody's worried about, we get a Harris win, Gensler remains chair of the SEC, and we expect no more ETF approvals. I would say that's the worst case scenario for the ETF industry. Do we still see the same amount

of money come in just to Bitcoin and Ethereum? Like, does adding a Solana ETF or an XRP ETF really meaningfully impact how much total volume will come in? Or will it just benefit Bitcoin and Ethereum? You know, I don't think it'll have a huge impact. But what it will do is it will extend the window of regulatory uncertainty that keeps people on the sidelines, right right a lot of the reason that people don't come into these etfs they have this feeling in the back of their mind that something bad might happen that elizabeth warren might make it illegal to own these assets that the sec may audit your firm if you have exposure to these assets these little like things that catch in the back of your

minds and the trouble with the scenario you extended, Scott, is not that that will be true, but that people think it might be true. It's that uncertainty overhang that will keep people on the sidelines. So I actually do think it would lower the amount of money coming into the space until we get turnover at the SEC, turnover at the OCC, a rollback of chokepoint 2.0. We're going to get there. I think it'll end at the same place, but it will delay how fast we get there. So it's less about how much money would go into the Solana ETF versus the Ethereum ETF, more about the entire environment being welcoming enough for people to even put their money in at

all. That's right. Yeah, that is right. At least neutral, at least neutral. Remove those sort of Damocles hanging over your head and you'll see more people come into the market. I mentioned, I think on the show yesterday, but certainly on Spaces, that I have a hedge fund friend and he sat in a Harris meeting with the chief of staff or something with a lot of Wall Street CEOs, very big names, and listen to the Harris administration sort of assure them that, you know, Lena Kahn would be gone from the FCC. They didn't say necessarily that Gensler would be gone, but that it would become a much friendlier environment under Harris than it was under Biden. Are you hearing that? Are we believing that? I mean, saying that directly to CEOs of Wall Street firms is a little different to me than talking points in a speech.

I'd love to hear Andrew's view and then happy to chime in. So in life, I've ascribed to words are interesting, actions are meaningful, and then patterns are what you should rely upon. And so there's a clear four years of patterns associated with the current administration that Harris was the vice president of. Nobody meaningful is going to be moved out of position. Lena Kahn, I'd be shocked if she leaves her position voluntarily. And that really has nothing to do with crypto anyways. And so, you know, when people tell you who they are, kind of believe them. Is there an evolution of sorts that will be forced into and onto the markets? For example,

the coming, you know, new Texas exchange associated with BlackRock and Citadel, and the tokenization of real world assets, the tokenization of 24-hour trading, all of that stuff. A new standpoint from Robinhood et al. Yeah, yes. Is that stuff still shoved through the system by sheer force of will by the Larry Finks of the world? Yes, I think so. But it's much, much more difficult and it happens slower with a Harris administration. So, you know, hard to believe things in the moment, you know, a week or two before an election. You know, let's see where the theory still remains,

even if it's still worst case scenario, Bitcoin is higher. But in terms of the growth, as Matt more eloquently said, the growth of the crypto ecosystem, the growth of the crypto ecosystem, the growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem, that's a difficult sell in the current and future, you know, Democrat focused administration. And I would build on that. I agree with that. I think it's sort of like a different flavor that you expect. I think in a GOP administration, you can reflect sort of principles-based regulation of the crypto market centered around freedom and innovation. And I suspect in the

Harris administration, it'll be better than it is today, but it'll be more influenced by Wall Street wanting into the crypto boom, right? You're more likely to see stablecoin legislation that favors banks at a federally level or a state level. I think you'll see those sorts of nuances. But I think the train is moving regardless. Yeah. I just want to know, I guess, Matt, before I let you go, are the people at Bitwise hanging on every word of the election results today? Because that's how it feels when you're on Twitter, not for Bitwise specifically, but for the crypto community or the train keeps moving and you guys push ahead and maybe there's some nuance. I'm mostly excited to be through this and on the other side. I actually think, look, the election is really important and it will shape the direction.

But there are bigger trends at work here. I think the institutional movement into crypto is a bigger deal than what we're seeing from an election basis. I think the improvement in highly performant blockchain technology is a bigger deal. I think, you know, mainstream applications like PolyMarket emerging into the space is a bigger deal. I think what we're seeing in stable coins, I think that's going to a trillion dollars no matter who wins. I think what we're seeing in stable coins, I think that's going to a trillion dollars no matter who wins. I think that's a bigger deal. So I'm happy to get past this and start talking about the 13F filings on Bitcoin ETFs, showing an exponential growth in institutional ownership of these assets. And I'm happy to get past this and see that people are still allocating to Bitcoin.

I'd be a buyer of any dip off of election day. But of course, today, yeah, it's all we're thinking about. But we will get past this and let's get on to the crypto story. Yeah. And really quickly, Andrew, I know you're about to jump in and we'll let Matt go, but Bloomberg did print this, which I love. Trump and Harris have ignored a looming crisis. Of course, that crisis is this, right? Like if you're worried, this is why in my mind, when you look at this US debt clock, and here we are about to hit 36 trillion, Bitcoin should do what Bitcoin does, because nobody is stopping this trade. And they're both going to keep printing money. And from a fiscal responsibility perspective, they're not so different.

Yeah, we, you know, even as we speak as we speak, Bitcoin is pushing higher. Matt's point, and I'm going to generally ignore that chart that you put up there. I'm going to speak to Matt's point, sorry. But Matt's point about institutional adoption and the 13F aggressive push higher in Q4 of this year. And love to get Matt's thoughts on this. Institutions and asset managers are going to chase performance. I don't care if it's a banana ETF. If a banana ETF is aggressively higher versus all other assets, those allocators are forced to not have to tell their customers and their clients,

we weren't interested in allocating to that particular asset over the last three quarters. We just don't want to make you extra money. That doesn't fly with those people. They move their money elsewhere. So there's a portion of that 13F move higher that it's like, hey, we've got to own some of this stuff or they're going to kick us in the teeth when we have our meeting in November. Yeah, that is absolutely right. That benchmarking question is absolutely right. And that's why, all these zero to one wins we're seeing like Emory University allocating, that starts to matter because you start to get that zero to one difference. And I can't tell you how true it is that things have really changed over the last few months

in terms of how these institutional investors are speaking to the space and thinking about the space. What Andrew said is exactly right. And that's a mega trend. The debt you mentioned is a mega trend, not going anywhere. And these are going to overwhelm the election result. Yeah. And to your point, Bitcoin, for whatever reason, right now, back up to 69,800, pushing for 70,000. So it's definitely, it's excited in the morning. We'll see how excited it is in the evening. Matt,

I always appreciate the perspective. It's kind of good to know where the adults in the room are and the level-headed thinking that's obviously coming from institutions that have to be prepared for this either way. It makes me a little less paranoid about the years in the future, although I guess we'll see how much clarity we even get from these elections.

It's all going to be all right, Scott. Thanks for having me. It always is guys follow Matt. Of course, on X, his tag is right down in the description. Andrew and I are going to stay on for a couple more minutes. Thanks, man. See you guys. We're only going to have bit wise guests. Yeah. Jeff, we're going to go all the way down. We're going to have like the guy that cleans the offices.

It's going to be amazing. That guy's awesome. But listen, I mean, I know that you're leaning heavily towards the Trump victory. I think you've made the case for it in the swing states. I'm just one of those like I'm not even willing to bet on it because I know anything can happen in this country. Well, there's an undertone, and it's sad that this is the reality. There's now an undertone to United States elections that says, what happens behind closed doors that we don't know about? What about mail-in ballots? What about when they haven't finished for the night and they turn off the lights and we wake up in the morning and something else has happened. Like, I don't love that narrative. I don't like that narrative. It's not a great

narrative, but it's in the back of everybody's mind. And you're like, wait a minute, all of these numbers and these, this collection of data, by the way, right? It's a collection of data, say at Real Clear Politics and their polling. They look at every single poll, all the polls from the swing states. It's a collection of data. And the differences in the numbers, 16, 20, and now, it just simply tells you, unless something bizarre happens,

the numbers tell you that we're probably looking at worst an electoral college victory for Trump. But again, I think, you know, I mentioned yesterday on Spaces, there's four outcomes that are likely a Harris landslide, a Trump landslide. Both are on the outskirts of that likeliness. In the middle, it's a Harris slight win or a Trump slight win. And the Trump slight win causes, you know, the lawyers in the world to be activated, associated with the Electoral College as a concept. And if Harris wins, you probably have the same noise on the right and where the ballots come from, all of that stuff. So one way or

another, you know, I don't think we get a clean result over the next 48 hours. We'll see what that does for markets. I'm not sure. I'm happy to be wrong one way or the other. I'm happy to be wrong, frankly. It's an interesting conversation to have. It's a conversation that we've been having for months. Just like Matt, I'm ready to move on from it.

So, yeah. This was an interesting take that just kind of opened my eyes in the comments. I wonder if Ross could even sleep last night. Think about if you're him and you know that if Trump wins, you're finally getting out of jail. And if he loses, that you're going to be there at least four more years, probably.

Although, you know, it's going to happen, but man. Yeah, that's a sobering thought right that's a real sobering thought and right under this i see scott only person with that take that was me about the harris wall street uh meeting nobody has heard sarah harris say that pretty sure that's what i said pretty sure i said it behind closed doors meeting of wall street executives and that's why i asked matt if he was getting that impression or not i'm sorry that i triggered you by saying something that could even be slightly in the remotely direction of the narrative you don't like. Hey, listen, we love reply guys because reply guys watch the show one way or the other.

And we appreciate the engagement and, you know, keep following and keep replying. And because it makes the conversation robust, right? Speaking of things that are doing amazingly well and numbers that don't have anything to do with the election, now we're going to talk about ArchPublic, guys. Crushed in October, best month ever. Up or down with the markets doesn't really matter. Yeah. So here's the thing. So we talked with current customers and prospects about August and September. August and September were really, really robust for our suite of products to the tune of about 30 plus percent.

And we were telling people, hey, listen, I know you're coming in here because these numbers are big and you just want access and to get involved. But please understand that these are these are not typical numbers like August and September 60 percent. That's not typical. Well, then that blows up in our face because we have a 21 plus percent number in October. Right. So 30 percent and then 20 percent. So our concierge program folks are up 50% in the last 90 days, which is just outrageous. We do our best to be very, very clear and under promise and over deliver. And that has played itself out in a big way over the last 90 days.

We're on our site as a five to 10% number associated with monthly returns because our sharp ratios are tight. We keep liquidity on a daily basis and we go into the market, products go into the market, extract performance and then get out of the market. So, again, over the last 90 days, people have been so extremely pleased with the reality of our products that it has been a rush to the front door for Archpublic and what we offer to people. And we're getting lots of comments on social media saying, listen, I'm a customer. This stuff is legit. And frankly, thanking Scott Melker for introducing me to this product. Like, this is wonderful stuff. These guys are the real deal.

Are we going to be hanging out with some of these people this weekend? We are. We are. So this weekend, we're going to be in Texas for a probably not so comfortable Texas-Florida game. Dude, I mean, like, Florida was playing Georgia tight, and then we lost our quarterback, and now we're to the third string transfer from Yale to play the best team in the country at Texas. I mean, if this was going to be

a beating before, I'm going to go and I'm going to wear like a Florida thing and I'm going to hang my head. Actually, you know what? I'm going to hold my head up proud. You should. You should. Listen, I'm a dyed in the wool,-wool, born-and-raised Michigan fan, right? So I had the world's greatest year last year. Not so great this year. I mean, we're on our version of quarterbacking is not even third-string level. It's absolutely the worst ever. It's meme-coin-like.

Let's put it that way. And so it's been a tough year. I get it coin like, let's put it that way. And so been a been a tough year. I get it. But we're going to have a blast. We're going to have a bunch of our customers there. We're going to have a Friday, you know, drinks and cigars. Then we're going to, you know, a tailgate before the game and the game. And then we're going to have a bunch of Texas folks and Texas former players at a dinner on Saturday evening. So it's going to be a lot, a lot of fun. We do something like this every quarter for our concierge program customers. So the performance is what it is.

The service is what it is. And then we love spending time with folks and having some fun. Just another BS ad. Oh, well, you know. Look at the numbers, dude. I'm sorry. I'm sorry for showing you the numbers of a portfolio that we're actually running and actively using because it's amazing. I would hate for you to go make money.

I would. Yeah. What a terrible concept. Participate in all this money making at the end of this conversation. Yeah. They're going to hate it next week when, no, in two weeks when we launched the Bitcoin algorithm right along with Gemini. Yeah. We're going to New York in a couple of weeks too. Yeah. And have a bunch of Gemini people on here talking about the fact that you should own Bitcoin and you should use this tool to buy it. I don't know. I don't know what kind

of negativity we're going to find around that particular campaign. But, yeah, you know what? There's, you know, the archpublic.com. Everybody go there. But I'd love you real quick to pull up Gemini's website. You know, they just did an entirely new deal, a rebrand and a new, you know, just kind of a new vibe for what they're doing. It's really cool. They brought on the guy that was the lead art guy for the two Dune movies so far. He did all the art and

the creative for this particular campaign. It's very, very cool. It's very great stuff. You might see Archpublic on here soon maybe oh yeah you're going to absolutely we're finalizing a co-branded uh landing page for the bitcoin algorithm in conjunction with gemini and it's just going to be really really great stuff we finalized um the product actually yesterday internally, and it is a uniquely powerful tool because your ability to dial in purchase levels, purchase times, timeframes. And if you're an owner of the Bitcoin algorithm, and by the way, we're going to make it very, very easy for you to use this tool from a financial standpoint. You're going to be able to not only dial in, hey, I want to buy $10 of Bitcoin every 30 seconds, but I also want to buy $1,000 every week. And I also want to buy $500 every month.

So now you as a user have just instituted three different instances of how to buy Bitcoin. And the algorithm is going to look for the absolute best price inside of that 30 seconds, inside of that week, and inside of that month. So the performance associated with it, as opposed to just smash by DCA, a very, very different, significant upside. It's going to be really, really cool stuff. And we're going to be really loud about it, to be honest. We're going to be loud about it.

So will Jeff and I. Yes. Correct. Yes. It's going to be really, really cool stuff. And we're going to be really loud about it, to be honest. So will Jeff and I. Yes. It's going to be amazing. So guys, check out thearchpublic.com. If you hate ads and you hate money, don't. Right. It's fine. It's fine.

You can still watch the show. You can even tune out like right, you know, 10 minutes ago. Man, Bitcoin up just tipped 70 again oh look at that something's happening oh yeah right there 70 000 right back there well i guess we'll see how it ends the day 70k all day as uh fibo says see if i say 70k all day though and we're now at 69 938 guys it's like it wasn't all day it's like what do you mean all day. It's the only thing that gets to trigger people. What do you mean all day? I'm like, it rhymes, man. It's just a rhyme.

I'm not specifically indicating that my expectation is that it can never go below 70, especially when I tweet it the second that it hits it. It's easy to say 70k all day when you go from 70 to 72, and then you're like, come on, man. Day's easy to say 70K all day when you go from 70 to 72, and then you're like, come on, man.

Day's over at 69, 975. Scott's an idiot. Yeah. Well, it's, again, an aggressive move higher over the last, let's call it six hours. So we'll see if it holds. This is the volatility that I talked about. My guess is it's going to bounce around based on these reports.

So, you know, there's more people in New Jersey, but there's less people in Ohio. And then there's more people in lines in Georgia. And then this ballot machine went down. It's going to keep up for the rest of the week, be my guess. Can't wait. Very excited. Well, I'll see you on Friday. I'll see some of you guys on Friday.

I know you're there. I see you in the chat i'll see some of you guys on friday i know you're there i see in the chat uh and uh otherwise uh yeah that's it maybe we'll uh shoot some like iphone video content you know uh guys uh maybe we'll know who the president is uh next time we come out at 9 a.m eastern standard time or maybe we won't know for a month i have no idea that's all we got andrew thank you guys follow ap underscore abacus and check out thearchepublic.com and we will see you tomorrow. All right, guys.