The Wolf Of All Streets - Daily Howl: Bitcoin To Bottom At $13,000? | Special Guest: Crypto Trader Big Cheds

Episode Date: October 25, 2022

Legendary analyst and trader, Peter Brandt, predicts that Bitcoin will trade within the $17-23K range for the next two years and that before reaching a new all-time-high Bitcoin will bottom at $13,000. Everyone's favorite Big Cheds is here to discuss this and more. Big Cheds: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIRzrBHO7fTsXwjQO8fZz5g ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen  GET UP TO A $8,000 BONUS IN USDT AND TRADE ALL SPOT PAIRS ON BITGET FOR ZERO FEES! ►► https://thewolfofallstreets.info/bitget   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

This is the Wolf of All Streets podcast, and what you're listening to is an audio version of my live YouTube stream. I would love if all of you would please go on Apple or Spotify, whatever platform you're listening to, and rate the show, give it a five stars that more people will listen and find this episode. Thank you for listening and enjoy. Legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt recently said that he doesn't think Bitcoin will make another all-time high for about 32 months. Yes, that's almost three years. And then he thinks it's likely that the bottom will come at around 13,000. I'm going to play the clips of exactly what he said in that interview. And then I'm going to discuss it

with everybody's favorite dancing masked man, Big Cheds, who I've got today. Everyone's favorite guest who is back for another round. You guys don't want to miss this. Let's go. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Let's go. still. You can't get to the like button with the hands out in front unless you put the keyboard up and punch it. I find that when I try to do that, I break my keyboard and then I can't do typing. Anyways, guys, it is Tuesday morning, October 25th at 9.33 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Some of you actually are taking the time this early in the morning, wherever you are, maybe afternoon or evening to share with myself

and today, Big Cheds. And I thank you guys for doing that. I'm going to go ahead, dispense with the niceties, and go ahead and bring Cheds on right now. My man, how is it going? Hey, it's great to see you, Scott. Thank you so much for having me. You are very welcome. I see now you've got the trading quotes poster back behind you there too. I got the author proof as well. I'm going to get this thing out here pretty soon. So we're getting close, brother. Is that all your own quotes or are you discussing famous quotes of other traders? They're all my own quotes and it's crazy. I had to come up with 365 quotes, right? One per day. But I've actually pulled out out taken out like maybe 100 150

like that didn't make the cut so um i mean it's not 365 topics it's not you know a lot of them are like you know four or five in the same topic but they're all mine wow that's impressive and when is that going to come out two to three weeks oh damn soon you're ready right i'm ready my man i want to be done with it i want to be done i'm ready to move on you know you might be the only person out here who finds a way to outwork me it seems but i don't know how you can write that many books it's pretty uh unbelievable i'm just hanging out most of the time trust me i'm not i'm not outworking you scott well hopefully those quotes just magically appear in your mind and you know you don't have to like sit down for

seven hours to come up with one. It just pops up like it's just a topic and something like there'll be an interesting point and I'll try to think of a cool way to say it. And then I'm like, oh, okay, that works. Or hell, that sucked. Let me never say that again. I can't wait to read it. So listen, as I said in the introduction, right?

I think just to give us some context and then we'll go in our own direction with charts and thoughts. Let's share exactly what Peter Brandt recently had to say. Here we go. Okay. So from, I look from the April 2021 highs, I think it's going to be 32 months before we make a new all-time high in Bitcoin. And that really takes us on out until late 2023, maybe even early 2024. So I just see Bitcoin as being a boring market for the next year, year and a half. We'll just continue to chop. That doesn't mean we don't chop. We just chop between, let's say, 17 and 23 but i think that we will bottom here at some point in time maybe early next year but then i'm not looking for bitcoin really to become exciting again for another couple

of years first of all i i mean i he's a brilliant analyst uh but obviously not a good mathematician because late 2023 is 12 months away. And he said 32 months. And he said late 2023 or early 2024, which by my math is, I don't know, 12 to 18 months. But I think we understand the idea there. Is that what you think is likely to happen as well? You know, it's hard to argue with someone who says that it's going to be boring because it's boring now. So, I mean, that makes a lot of sense.

And, you know, I actually think, you know, people and again, thank you for having me. It's always fun to talk. I think when people talk about like all the next bull run, like how do you define that? You know, for me, we could bottom out and then have a nice run to like 50K. And that might be the top of the next bull run that would set a lower high overall. And then we do like another whatever multi-year consolidation. So it's what's your definition of a bull run? I agree. I don't think we're going to shoot up and make a new all-time high. I think that's

years away personally. So I generally do agree with Mr. Brand, who's a colleague of mine. A lot of money to be made if we have a bull market that sends Bitcoin to 50,000 and have an entirely new refreshed, I guess, basket of all coins that do their 10, 20, 50, 100x things. That wouldn't even be the worst case scenario, right? That'd be the most exciting part. I mean, it would be like the new soul or the new whatever that I don't know about. You probably know about it. You're plugged into that stuff more than I am. I'm assuming so these days.

But there'd be action, you know, and there'd be views on these videos. There'd be more comments than bots as opposed to the other way around, you know. My God, yeah, the bots are crushing the world. He had one more clip here where he talks about when he thinks the eventual bottom is. So let's take a look at that really quick. The market took us to 20,000

and now we're back down slightly under that. So I think there's good buying down in here. But it would not surprise me to see one more blow off where we take out the 17,000 support and we have the final panic. There is a final let me out. I really don't care what Bitcoin is going to do. I've felt enough pain. I've waited enough time. I'm just so disappointed.

I don't want to even think about it. Peter, where do you see that bottom? 13. 13,000. Wow. There it is, 13,000. I see you're holding up something over there. What do you got?

This is Peter Brandt's book. If you haven't read it, it's an unbelievable second book. He wrote one like a decade before this. A hundred years ago, yeah. Yeah. And I did an interview with him on my YouTube, Cheds Trading. Check it out. The guy's awesome. Big fan. Big fan. Yeah. So does 13, I mean, I think that maybe we can debate the number, but I think that the idea

there is how most bottoms come, right? And we haven't really seen that sort of capitulatory blow off bottom. Some would have said at 17,000, it looked like that. But the price action since has sort of made it not look like that in retrospect, right? Yeah, I mean, there's a lot to what you just said. Have we had the real panic that you and I have seen throughout the years? I don't think so. 13K, I mean, that's an area of interest. Clearly, there's support there, right?

12, 13K. It doesn't mean that if the price gets there that's the bottom it's one of those things where um it's about how it gets there if it gets there quickly it'd be more likely to bounce i think you'd probably agree with that but if it slowly bleeds there it's probably going to slowly bleed through it you know so when people throw out numbers i think it's important to remember it's not necessarily the number it's you know kind of how it gets there when you think about momentum um and all that you know another scenario you and i talked about briefly before we started um and i think peter had mentioned that as well you know 17k let's say we break it and everyone thinks we're going to 13k yeah but then we quickly recapture 17K. Like that could be, that's something,

that's a way a bottom could form as well. Yeah, basically sort of a SFP, a swing failure pattern. You get that major wick that they push down into the liquidity and that's when you like are at 20,000 by the end of the day. Yeah, I mean, I'm ready.

Even that, I don't have it right here. I'm looking. When we went to 17.5, that the next, you know, we went to 17.5 that the next you know we went to 17.5 the next day it was trading back at 20,733 and that's crazy that's a beautiful bounce yeah right and so that's why i think a lot of people would have thought that that was the bottom i'm gonna go ahead and share your screen though and we can start looking at your charts and you can tell us specifically what you're looking at i think we listen i don't know if

peter's right but uh it's a defensible argument. Right. So he has his premise and there's data and idea to support it. That's the most you can really ask for, I think, as a trader. But here's your charts. Yeah. I mean, it's boring, brother. I mean, all right.

We'll go daily chart. Look at these Bollinger Bands. Look how tight they are. And if we zoom out, I've got the Bollinger Band width indicator, BB percentage or whatever, you know, trading view. I mean, the last time we were this tight on daily Bollinger Bands was July of 2020. July of 2020. And that was just before we had a big move. I mean, it was up.

It doesn't mean we're going to have a big move up. But what that means is it was right here. This is the last time the Bollingers were this tight, right? All the way back to July of of 2020 we had a big move so i think what we can take from this is not okay because the bollingers are tight and last time they were tight we're going to go up i think we should anticipate a large move out of this range i mean this is ridiculous i mean you and i remember we had that um me you and burb did a thing back in the 80 day rectangle of 2021. I mean, we got the 132 day range is ridiculous.

Yeah. And we also beyond that, we discussed and we'll get into Ethan a bit. But that dropped to twelve eighty four. And that's when he was still at 18 or 19. And we're still hanging out right around that support that we talked about there. Yeah. I mean, I'm looking at the bands there. I mean, it's really absurd. This is as tight as it gets. And when you look, I mean, I'm looking at the bands there. I mean, it's really absurd. Like, this is as tight as it gets. And when you look, I mean, to have to go back two years to find that.

And listen, as much as I want to say because it broke up that time, it should break up this time. Like you said, there's no reason to believe that. And honestly, like, we're in a downtrend. So if you had to weight the odds of which way it's going to go, maybe it's 60, 40 down. Just real quick on the daily, right? Real quick on the daily. How do we know. Just real quick on the daily, right? Real quick on

the daily. How do we know we're downtrend daily MA200, right? That's a falling 200, price below it confirming. If you look at when we topped back in November, we had the sharp move down and then sideways. Sideways after we started to recapture the EMA34, it's the same thing here, sharp move down and then sideways, right? So we're in this down, sideways, down, sideways. And you correctly pointed out more likely than not, we'll continue with the trend, but it doesn't mean you have to be caught off guard, right? You know, and I'm sure you agree with this. It doesn't mean you have to miss a move, you know, or being able to miss the bottom.

You know, I'm willing to miss all the way up to like 22.5. You know, if we get above 22.5, I'm ready to go long and I'm happy to miss all the way up to like 22.5. If we get above 22.5, I'm ready to go long and I'm happy to miss below that to ride with the comfort of a potentially reversing trend. So even if you're convinced you're going lower, my point to the viewers is you should have a level at which you'll say, okay, I'll take a trade in the other direction.

Do you bias towards the larger moving averages? Obviously the 50 is right there as well. That's, I mean, I talked about this, but this weekend, people seem to believe the bull market was back on. And I was like, we're just getting rejected by the 50 MA over and over and over and over again. So moving averages, right? So that is sort of turning, at least it's flattening.

It's no longer viciously pointing down. So you want to think of the thing with price and moving average, it's the context as well. You make a great point. Yes, clearly we're rejecting here MA50, simple moving average, equal weighted, rejected MA50, but the moving averages now are flattening out. So we're in a position where we're probably going to capture the moving average because when it starts to flatten out, it's much easier to get above it. But if you break that 50, when it's coming down sharply, that's more of a momentum signal. When much easier to get above it. But if you break that 50, when it's coming down sharply, that's more of a momentum signal. When you start to get sideways moving averages, your moving

average crosses are worthless pretty much, right? A moving average cross needs to trend across and reverse from. So yes, the MA50 has been rejecting it, but I think it's becoming less and less important to look at because everything's just sideways. So you have, that's the context of the moving average price interaction. You have a question here from, uh, all's G I'm trying to bring it up here. Is there a chance we pumped a 200 EMA just to be clear, I believe he's showing the 200 MA, not the 200 EMA, but with talk, the fed will ease, ease either stance or ease their stance. So in my opinion, you should not be using an EMA for 200, right? And some people do this and there's all, you know, with trading and TA, there's choices and preferences, but an EMA is an exponential moving average. It's more sensitive to short-term price movement. In my school of thinking, the way I teach, you really shouldn't go more than 50 for EMA. Really 34 is the highest. You want to switch to a simple moving average 50 and above, right? The whole point of an EMA, it's more sensitive to short-term price movement, right? So that's why you're watching like the eight EMA when the price is dropping, you're looking for it to start to

recapture that. But 200 should be a simple moving average. That's point number one. Is there a good chance? I mean, this is just talk. We're doing this because we're bored. I can give you great arguments for why we should go up or go down. Like, what's the point? Like, just focus on a level that you can allow you to apply risk or to reduce risk. And that's 20 to five.

That's price interaction with the bottom of the channel. I'm not playing anything in between. You know, like Peter talked about 17 to 23. I'm really not playing in between those levels, you know, plus or minus. So maybe. That's how you get wrecked by getting chopped. That's how you know, plus or minus. So maybe. That's how you get wrecked by getting chopped.

That's how you get chopped up. Yeah. That's it. That's it. You got to survive. Maybe we do just trade in that zone for, you know, another year. It's certainly possible. I mean, if the Fed just kind of, and if we're really still talking about the Fed, but the

Fed is kind of like 25 basis point hikes every month, you know, for then maybe just becomes boring and sideways in all markets. Well, from what I understand, I'm a horrible fundamental analyst. I don't have to tell you that. But, you know, if the Fed, you know, changes from whatever, 75 to 25, of course, the market's going to rally. And now you would expect crypto to to rise with it. But we haven't really had any correlation. It's just been flat regardless. So so i don't know i just you have to be nimble and just just play the chart let it tell you when the trend is reversing it's just such a such an unclear murky environment that you have to focus on the only real truth we have which is you know the price for support and resistance listen so i just pulled up the eth bitcoin chart because

i wanted to talk about eef next and obviously we can pull up the usTH Bitcoin chart because I wanted to talk about ETH next. And obviously, we can pull up the ETH USD chart. But this, I think, gives at least some indication of where we're at, Bitcoin versus the rest of the market. I hadn't looked at this in quite a while. Last time I had, it was with this bullish divergence. I thought we might get oversold, to be quite frank, and this breakout. But now it really seems to be starting to make a move here on the daily. Did you have a view on that chart? Do you ever look at the ETH BTC chart?

Yeah, it's a great question. So this is the first time I've looked at it myself in like months. And I tend to look at the Ethereum BTC chart when Bitcoin's near tops. I looked at it a lot in like October, November when we've talked about this, when Ethereum was starting to accelerate

and that kind of added more data to the idea that Bitcoin was topping off. We step back. It's just been an uptrend forever, but not anymore now. I mean, this is sideways now. We've been basically chopping sideways since the middle, since the late last year, November 2021. But then you zoom in, right?

It's this whole thing where we're looking for something. We're zooming in. We're zooming in, Scott, right? And we're just looking at the last 30 bars or whatever. Which ma is that uh ma200 is the blue that's the 50 it's hitting the 50 got it you know this is clearly an acceleration out of a base i mean you see okay it's a little base it's clearly an acceleration out of a base the top of it's probably right around there um this is one of those things where and this is why i don't like trade btc pair charts because you know i mean i wouldn't go long on on an X BTC chart because it may just be that

it's falling less than Bitcoin. And then that's why. Well, it's an extra level of nuance. It was always more complicated to trade against Bitcoin because you have to not only be concerned about that trade, but you have to be concerned about the Bitcoin market. That's what I'm saying, right? I'm not trying to make it too hard myself. But what does this mean?

I haven't looked at this. So let me try to think about it um i don't know i don't know i mean do you have any do you have any usd chart because you might get a little more insight there and like i said i literally just pulled this up while we were here just to throw a curveball but so you can see a little bit more strength right a little bit more strength versus bitcoin but look at the bollinger still super tight we're still at the kind of at the top of a bollinger squeeze um you know from my thinking what is it again below the 50 ma and below the 50 ma and below 50 i mean ethereum gives us a much clearer trade setup we have our lows here right around 1400 you know where it's support broken and now resistant. So you've got a pretty clear long trade above really $1420, $1400, $1430. I mean, that's easy to flip long.

And then down below, I actually don't want to buy here $1250. I feel like this level has been chopped out, the former ascending triangle breakout level. I'd look to either play similar to Bitcoin where I'd look to either play the bottom of the range here would be around $1000 or I would go long in a break above $ you know, 1420. Um, even if Bitcoin stays sideways, I would go long in Bitcoin. If it breaks a little bit higher here, um, you know, on Ethereum rather, even if Bitcoin sideways, I would still play this chart on a clear break here, 1420, 1430. So this is a little bit more

interesting to me, but, um, you know, bouncing it down. You're not looking to do much in this market at the moment, clearly, which I think, you know bouncing it down you're not looking to do much in this market at the moment clearly which i think no absent volatility i mean absent volatility right yeah we need volatility yeah here's my uh and we had shared this when you and burb were on maybe that was in august and we were up here you know almost 2000 we all uh and during that stream i circled this line on 1284 i did not mean for it to fall exactly in it at the exact right time but it did but i i did buy that 1284 and even held it sort of through these drops because it was a spot buy yeah so listen my my hope obviously is that uh we're breaking out of this base sort of as you said but there's the the eth btc pair looks like it's doing it right now and i'm not so sure

about the eth usdtUSDT pair. I mean, it's reasonable. If we go down $1,000, $2,000 on Bitcoin and ETH slightly outperforms, we're still losing money on ETH, right? That was sort of your point. Yeah, yes, definitely. And I guess maybe the point I want to make also, and maybe I didn't make it that well, is that I am more inclined to play Ethereum than Bitcoin, just kind of what we're looking at. But I'm not super excited about either. Yeah, I mean, you're going to get a bigger move either way. If you're trying to play volatility as a trader, you can take the information you have on Bitcoin and use

it to your advantage for a bigger move on Ethereum generally in either direction. Is there anything else that you're looking at in the altcoin market? I know it's absolutely been brutal. I mean, there's been a couple. I mean, you and I mentioned one earlier. there's been a couple i mean you and i mentioned one earlier the only one there's one there's been a couple that are like okay i mean qnt is interesting right it's probably the strongest altcoin shot we're above the 200 um it's been accelerating nicely using moving average support and now we're in what's called an equilibrium or a tightening range here right so we'll just zoom in and we're looking at a nice price acceleration. We set our high, set our low,

we set our lower high, we set our higher low. You get the picture. You have this nice little tightening range within an uptrend. What we have identified now is consolidation within an uptrend, likely to resolve higher, 65, 70% likely to continue. I don't know if it will, ma20 support so this is this is

a good looking chart you want to look at q and t it's a nice looking chart um you know qlc qlc is somewhat interesting we'll erase my markings it's above the 200 it's above this key support resistant flip level here right so that's one that i'm watching um but it's pretty dry out there bro it's pretty dry you know uh matic is interesting you know well the fundamentally matic is extremely interesting and you can't go a day without some sort of massive announcement from uh from them but is that right hasn't moved that much yeah i mean that's interesting yeah i mean nfts on instagram the reddit nfts which i'll talk about later, are kind of going nuts. Those are being minted on Polygon.

There's actual adoption. So that makes, you know, and so, yeah, it's so tempting, right? I hear that from you, and you're a smart guy, and you're plugged in. And so I'm like, oh. I don't think it's moving price, clearly, but yeah. It's not moving the price. But look, we have negative divergence here with the unbalanced volume, double negative, two higher highs in price, two lower highs in the OBV.

That makes me be a little bit more cautious and kind of being an opportunistic bear. I'd love to see it bounce up, maybe make another high right here. Maybe give me like a swing failure like you just talked about. You know, I want to be cautious now because that divergence, look for something like that,

boom, go short and then see it flush back to range lows. So that's know that's what i'd like to see i don't know if it's going to happen but it's matic i'm watching lower high structure tripled on you know double negative divergence maybe we get a deviation so you're watching it very short yeah you're absolutely i don't want to go long in this no but if we get above here i'm very happy to go long above like a dollar five i'll very comfortably go long up here because I think we go $1.05 to like $1.40. You know what I mean? That's a big jump if we can clear this level, right? Clear these lows, clear this kind of consolidation range high, clear the MA200.

So that's how I would kind of mark up Matic. Yeah, I've just been avoiding them altogether, Alcoin. So I haven't really been looking at the charts. But I do have QNT here. And actually, it's funny because I had an alarm that I apparently missed on this blue line. That came with the retest. And this is actually a really good example of an MA cross, kind of like you were talking about. Yeah.

Where you get one where the 50 is coming up steep. It did break down. But, I mean, when you get that MA cross, the golden cross of the 50 over the 200 with the 50 pointing up that high and both candles effectively interact with that cross, that's usually a pretty good sign. That's what you want. That's a great point. Yeah. That's a great point. Moving average cross with the price close to it.

That's the best setup. Absolutely. But you can really make a differentiation, just I'm going off what you said on coins the few of them seemingly they're really above these 50 and 200s on the daily and most of them below because like i was reading an article right before we went on something about mana and decentraland so i pulled up the mana chart it's at support but it's below the 200 and the 50 on the daily and the weekly like i haven't looked at that one in so long man neither i just pulled it up um and so

that of course made me think hey let me look at sand because if you look at mana you have to look at sand right and that's right like you know yeah these are all at support actually so they're kind of interesting but i mean this is like you got the 50 and the 200 above on both the weekly there isn't even a 200 yet on sand on the weekend so with them all aiming down so it's really hard to get excited about these but q and t i think they're between key levels so it's nothing to do here but it is interesting to see these uh ma's screaming up like that i think you have to be super selective in this type of market where you probably should play nothing but if you're going to play something you know play the ones that are strong like q and t um don't be hoping man is going to bottom there i mean man it looks like a descending triangle

looks like garbage don't be i had someone on bitcoin live talent asking me about soul and talking about how it's undervalued valued i'm like no the market decides the value it's not undervalued like everything is where it's supposed to be. You know what I'm saying? So just because the technology or the whatever, like that, in theory, it shouldn't guide your approach. It has to be what the price is doing. Look at that chart.

Like, why would I go long? That looks like you would buy this maybe at 21, between 21 and 19. If you're trying to catch a knife. Yeah, absolutely. Or at least,

and that's, at least that's an area where you'd maybe switch to lower timeframe and look to see what it's doing, like you said. But we got to be super selective and protect our capital. I mean, the market wins, the market makers win because we're bored. So we, we kind of invent opportunity where like it doesn't, it doesn't exist. And I'm glad I have hobbies, bro. Cause if I didn't have hobbies, I'd just be like, you know, trading the five minute chart and I'd be broke. Yeah, you can. It's so hard.

Yeah, it's so, so. It's no good. Absolutely hard. Yeah. Here, can you, I'm going to keep you for like two more minutes. You can look at Maker. He had a huge run and sold off. I don't know.

I don't even know what that is. Maker. I've been watching Maker. It's had interesting MA200 interaction in the daily. And there it is. Look at that. I mean, ridiculous. I'm going to bring you up once I – yeah, there you go. You pull up yours, but look at that. I mean, it's just boom. We have a bounce into the MA200 in a downtrend, bounce into the MA200, and look at it again, MA200, MA200.

So it's nice when you get a chart that gives you a level that's so clear to watch. What am I watching? i'm watching the ma200 because that's where the price is rejected you know the last five times um if it's a bottom it needs to stair step here and it needs to hold this higher low so that's the support level to watch you know the resistance to watch this is a pretty easy one to mark up it's another beautiful bounce in a downtrend bounced into falling supply or falling resistance. Pretty straightforward chart. What do you think, Scott? Yeah, I'm looking at yours. It's obvious.

Yeah. I mean, the utter failure to ever get or stay above the 200 MA there is about as clear as it gets if you utilize MA's in your strategy. But you'd go long here, right? 1,200, and we get above this level? Yeah, I would absolutely go long there because then you're clearly above that 200 MA and you're above that clear resistance. Yeah.

So that's what you do. Be patient because, you know, look, people don't want to miss the bottom. Who cares? How about you ride a trend? You know, do we break 1200? You're going to 16 at least 16, 17 at least. Like that's a nice little trade. So at least that's how I would look at this.

OK. And then just final question before I let you go. Is there something that could happen with Bitcoin that would make the altcoin market more interesting to you? I mean, if we get that, I think you said 32 months, but 12 or 18 months of sideways, do you think that that's enough where we actually get a interesting altcoin market because Bitcoin is sideways for so long? Or do you think we just sort of bleed out

on everything? You know, I don't know. I don't know if I'm the best person to answer too, because like I didn't see the whole DeFi thing coming last year. Remember like Bitcoin was, I don't remember what it was exactly. Was it after the 80 day rectangle where Bitcoin was kind of boring, but then we had like a great alt run because there was some DeFi thing, right? Yeah. We had the DeFi summer, then we had NFT summer. Yeah. So like I can't predict those things coming that could come it could be the next thing that i don't know about um but i would i would guess no i would just guess probably not i mean bitcoin has to lead it has to set the table it has to

get interest and um you know um hopefully it happens soon because i can't take it any longer no yeah i mean it's really boring. Texas West Capital Chris is here. He said, agreed. If you're trading because you're scared of missing out or bored, you're going to lose money overall. That's right. Kind of reminds us that sitting on your hands or doing nothing is actually a position in the market, right? Grab a textbook, man. I'm telling you, just add a skill.

Bear market is when you add skills, honestly. That's just the way to do it. Dude, you know it's a bear market and shit's boring when I was outside chainsawing trees down and cutting fire the other day. But that's fun. That's actually fun. Anything to do.

Anything to do. Anything to do. Yeah. It's very hard. It's funny. I write a newsletter every morning. It's like, how can I tell people there's nothing to do in another creative way today?

So instead of a chart, I posted a picture of people watching paint dry. I was just about to make the paint dry joke, but it was too obvious. So I left it for you. Yeah, well, thank you. That was my move. Well, here we are, man.

10 a.m. I've taken up enough of your time. Take the minute as usual. I know we did it at the beginning a little bit, but where can they at least find you, find the books, keep up with everything you're doing? Go to my YouTube. Just go to Chud's Trading on YouTube. All the free stuff, teach you how to trade. you're doing go to my youtube just go to chad's

trading on youtube all the free stuff teach you how to trade it's got links to my free book and of course i'm on twitter at big chad's so thank you brother awesome man thank you so much once again everybody check out big chad's and read the books just do it there's a you want to do something in a bear market read his book do it thank. Thank you, man. All right, brother. Speak to you soon. Hey, Chris, I know I see you here. Can you come on next Tuesday? We're working on a new cadence here, guys, with the way that we're going to structure the shows because there's, you know, can't do news every day. So what I'm thinking about is doing macro Mondays, trader Tuesdays, do what we do normally on Wednesday, roundtable on Thursday and Friday, do a week in review of the news so we can knock out all the big news of the week rather than trying to figure out for the day.

But Chris, yeah, listen, I would love to have you on. LOL, maybe not the best comment. Love to have you on next Tuesday. So let's talk about that. Drucified says he has a new idea for me. I don't know if he's going to pull a Jerry, Gary June and say something about my mom or something. But yeah, yeah. You love that plan. I'm glad that that guy, that gives you good feedback because I hope that you guys do love it. I think it would give us a more defined way of approaching,

you know, exactly what you're going to get. Mondays, we'll bring on the Mike McGlones and the James Lavishes and, you know, the real strong fundamental macro analysts that we have in the network that we've been using so often. And then Tuesday, the traders and dig into charts and do what we just did. You get the idea. So that's what we're going to do. Des is catching up on golf in this market. That's the way to go. So listen, we talked about Peter Brandt. That was the first news story that I have. Let's dig into the few things otherwise worth discussing in this market at the moment. Near Foundation urges winding down of USN stablecoin sets aside $40 million. Ooh, USN, if you guys don't know,

stable coin that was created by DCB, Decentral Bank, in April, and already under collateralized. It's an algorithmic stable coin. We've heard this story before, right? Everybody followed what happened with Luna when UST crashed, collapsed, lost its peg, and then pegged the market, so to speak. Yeah. And so what Nier has done here is they've set aside $40 million to

basically make it over collateralized at the moment as a protection program, but with the intention of convincing USN, DCB to wind down. Basically, we'll put all the liquidity there. We want everybody to exit this thing. Liquidity is there. You can exit USN. They're basically saying, this is a bad idea, guys. And we've been here before, and it's time to do it. The question is, will people actually follow their lead and go ahead and unwind? This is what they had to say. We're in a regulatory landscape where the crypto space is a bad reputation and so does anything stable related. It's about working through this

and putting our values of transparency and making sure users are protected. I think this is an incredibly proactive move by the Near Foundation. I applaud the effort of doing this and I hope that people remove their degeneracy and bias towards the projects and coins and just get your cash back and exit this. Yeah. Seems very,

very obvious, but hey, PirateXPirate says that he got pegged by DoKon. Here's Drucified's idea for anyone wondering. Once a week, have a segment called Altcoin in Focus where you dive into an up and coming coin with potential. Not telling people to buy it, but going into the details of its use cases, tokenomics. Yeah, I would do that. I want to do that. I'm looking at new projects all the time. But the minute that I utilize the size of my audience to talk about anything tiny, that's when the trolls attack. So listen, maybe I shouldn't give a shit about them anymore.

I don't know. But I made a pretty much a concerted effort over the last year and a half to not even if I'm investing in them to not talk about any of the smaller cap stuff, but that could be a way to do it. To do it responsibly. And if it's very, very clear what I do and don't own and, you know, which most of them, I won't to be quite frank. And that we're just talking about what's being developed in the market. Uh, that's bullshit. That's why I come here because you keep it real, not a mobile bureaucrat. Tell it like it is. There you go. Listen, it would be just my opinion. That's a good idea. And maybe that's what we'll do as a segment. We also have talked about doing the show where it has segments, right? I mean, we kind of have that, right? News,

charts, guests, whatever, but more defined segments like that that can be within any given week. Meta downgraded by BOFA, that's the bank, oh, America, to neutral from buy, partly on metaverse concerns. Investment in the metaverse remained an overhang on the stock, the report said. I mean, listen, it's hard to be really, really bullish on Facebook at the moment. I do applaud the fact that they rebranded to meta and have made this commitment because I think that we all agree that that is the future. The problem is it's probably not the future on centralized platforms like Facebook. But whatever they were doing before clearly was getting a lot of pushback and people were not

in love with it. And I don't think anyone under, I don't know, 45 actively uses Facebook at this point. It's probably a dying platform. And so they put their target down, Bank of America, from 196 to 150, but it's still trading right now, 129-ish, last I checked. So that still leaves some room for upside, means that they are generally bullish, just less bullish than they would have been before. Now, Bank of America downgraded Facebook parent meta to neutral from buy on the likelihood that advertising spending pressure would increase next year and result in budget cuts. That was the real reason. It just makes for a much better story when you're a crypto publication to say it's because of their commitment to the metaverse, although they did mention that that could be an overhang, so to speak, into the future. Now, something I alluded to when talking to Cheds earlier with Polygon, Reddit NFTs surge as Polygon-based avatars reach millions of new

users. Yeah, the NFT market is seemingly dead, but not in this corner of the internet. And I think that this really speaks to the incredible power of community, right? I mean, Reddit has been well-established for years, has a massive amount of very dedicated users, and they use it for various reasons, right? So obviously this is an NFT launch basically by Reddit. Well, they've surged massively up 799% so far today. That was yesterday, to be clear. That was yesterday. And that was $1.88 million in trading volume in that day, which is quite a bit. That's on the secondary market, right? So millions of these originally sold and now being traded on the secondary market. And this was the stat that got me. As a result of the NFT launch on Reddit, 3 million new Polygon wallets were opened.

That's an eye-opening number, right? Because frankly, I didn't think there were 3 million people actively booking at NFTs, period, anywhere on planet of earth. But 3 million just to be able to buy and trade Reddit NFTs. Going back to the conversation we just had, I don't own any of these. I don't want to own any of these. I don't care about these at all. They're kind of cute. I'm telling you about it because it's the news, not because I have a vested interest. See, if I said that every time we talked about an altcoin, maybe we'd not have Zim problems. Finally, the last piece of news, Benham, the chair of the CFTC, in case you're wondering, just a matter of time before crypto returns to conditions of spring crash. It's an interesting headline, not exactly what we're talking about in context. But he made

the remarks as a part of a broader push for the agency he leads to have more direct rulemaking and oversight authority over Bitcoin and other digital asset spot markets. This is the ye old battle between the CFTC and the SEC jockeying for power. But CFTC really only has jurisdiction at the moment, largely over Bitcoin and spot markets because it's viewed more as a commodity. But there's a lot of people who want that oversight shifted more to the CFTC and away from SEC. And he's making the point here that in the spring, we saw this massive contagion from Luna to Three Arrows Capital to Celsius to Voyager to Vauld and friends. Right. We saw this massive collapse.

The leverage largely was unwound in the system. Right. Well, here's what he said. Let's just read exactly what he said. Said the return to crypto spring market crash is just a matter of time. We can think about what happened last spring with Celsius and Three Arrows and some of the other funds that blew up. I know a lot of that leverage was sort of unwound. We've had a much tighter trading range in the crypto space, but it's just a matter of time before it builds up and renews itself. And I'd much rather be ahead of it than behind it the next time.

And he said that the structure of crypto intermediaries is fraught with potential disaster because crypto exchanges fuse a number of duties that would typically be split. There's a lot to unpack there. First of all, he's not talking about price. He's talking about leverage, right? If you read the quotes, while the headline says it's sort of implying

that we're going to see another crash, what he's saying is that humans are dumbasses and they don't learn from their lessons and they're going to repeat the same mistakes by adding massive leverage to the system and giving uncollateralized loans and losing me my money on their platforms. Not talking about anyone specific, not really. But either way, I think we can all agree that humans will make the same mistakes and that they're going to use and overuse leverage,

and eventually that will build up in the system. But that could also benefit price to the upside, depending on how it goes. But what he said there at the end is actually really interesting. He said, fraught with potential disaster because crypto exchanges fuse a number of duties that would typically be split. So here's what he said. A native exchange in the crypto space is probably an exchange, a dealer, a custodian, and a bank all in one, right? I mean, you think about that in traditional finance, there's too many conflicts layered on. We wouldn't have that. So those are the types of things we need to remediate. That just raises a lot of interesting policy questions about market structure. And that's why I think we have to be very proactive in coming up with a policy framework that is not

too different from what we have now in our traditional market space. Now, listen, we can argue about whether regulation is good or bad, good regulation, bad regulation, but we're going to get regulation. So the fact is that we need to try to contribute and get our leaders out there and try to make sure that that regulation is friendly. But he actually has a pretty good point, right? I mean, should the exchange you trade at also be your bank? It's decentralized, perhaps, because you understand the risks that you're taking taking and that's your ethos of exiting the legacy system. But if it's going to be a centralized platform, maybe those things should be separated.

I haven't really given it much thought before reading the argument, but I can understand certainly from their perspective what they're saying here. I don't really have a firm position on it either way. But you are protected as a consumer when you use, say, E-Trade because they are not all of those things at once and you're not centralizing all that power, which could be put into the hands of bad actors. So it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I think the hope, obviously, is that we're going to get some solid regulation as opposed to heavy-handed, shitty regulation. And what I have here is a question from Michael. What's up, Michael? Thoughts on Rishi Sunak? I don't even know if that's how you pronounce his name.

Seems like a big proponent for CBDCs. While not a U.S. politician, it would give precedent to a U.S. Treasury that is increasingly bullish on them. Bad news for everyone. So yeah, listen, I reported yesterday that Rishi Sunak had, while at the exchequer from 2020 to 2022,

had made some favorable comments about crypto, about basically adopting some of the technology and NFT for the Royal Mint, etc., etc. I dug in a little more, which I should have done before. I think he was really talking about central bank digital currencies. And I think, like Michael said, we could agree that that is not a true cryptocurrency and not really a good thing and that they're conflating the benefits of two different things. I would hate to see him become a massive proponent for central bank digital currencies. What impact that will have on the Fed, I have no idea. I don't think the Fed is moving too fast towards a central bank digital currency, frankly, especially seeing that it's happening in China. Yeah. Regulate the regulators that

regulate regulations. Yeah. You got to get the regulators to mount up. It was a clear black night, clear white moon, orange juice on the streets, trying to consume. Everybody knows regulators, right? Everybody knows regulators. Well, that's all I got for you guys today. I will tell you this. I didn't intend to tell you this. There are a few things. There are a few things we're going to need around here in the future. Now, this is not like an announcement of an announcement or anything,

but the time has definitely come while we're here in the bear market, I think, to build out this community further, make it a true community. And I've been reluctant and hesitant to do so. I've always felt like I interacted with people on Twitter. I had the ability to do this here on YouTube, but that's always been sort of a one-way street. And now Twitter is completely fundamentally fucked. There's no reason to ever open your comments or read anything under a tweet on Twitter because you're're just going to have a CZ asking you, why is nobody talking about this? Right. So that means that in some way, shape or form, a discord, a telegram,

which will be free, obviously starting something like that. But I obviously don't have the bandwidth to do that myself and neither does my team. So we will be hiring in the not so distant future, some sort of community manager, a community manager to help me. I will obviously be in there and moderate that. And probably, honestly, as I think the market will shift, I'm thinking about, we'll see, hiring some analysts as well. Some people who can go into that Discord if that's what we end up doing or Telegram and share charts and ideas, unbiased charts and ideas to help everybody learn. Listen, I don't think that this is a replacement for much better groups like Texas West Capital, but it would give me an opportunity to actually interact with the community and less about trading and charts and more about feedback on the shows,

talking about the individual podcasts, conversations around general macro, things like that. And that's really not a trading group, but more of just a way for all of us to sort of have an open discussion and be more of a community, right? So that means, I don't know how you guys contact me. I'll have to think about this.

Maybe I'll mention it tomorrow. But if any of you have any background in community management, things like that, open to it, we'll probably be hiring someone in the not so distant future. And more importantly, as David Patrick said, we regulate any stealing of this property. We're damn good too. If you can't be any geek off the street, you got to be handy with the steel. Know what I mean? Earn your keep. Regulators, mount up. That's all I got for you guys today.

If you've got some ideas, listen, this is moving forward. Anything we do is about the community, right? You can see that I can create a million more shows and ideas and things, but at the end of the day, it's not going to run unless you guys are watching and hopefully participating. And that's something I've been woefully behind on just because I work hard, you know, and that's,

if I'm going to do it, I have to do it right. I have to participate. And that means a hell of a lot more of my time to make that happen. Oh, show you. It wants to know how Gollum doing this crypto. It's cold. That's in the crypto renters.

We're shivering, but it's okay because we have our precious. We want it. We need it. Anyways, guys, that is all I have for you today. Got to get this comment off the screen. I will see you guys

tomorrow for the next installment of the Wolf of Wall Street's live. Peace.