The Wolf Of All Streets - Does Bitcoin’s Next Mega Rally Start NOW? Shocking US-China Twist Sparks Bull Frenzy!

Episode Date: May 12, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down the massive US-China deal and its shocking implications for Bitcoin’s next move. Is a new all-time high just around the corner? We’re diving deep into the macro chaos, crypto catalysts, and the rally that could change everything. Don’t miss this explosive episode of Macro Monday Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin is only a few percent off of its all-time high, leaving many to wonder does the next mega rally start now? It certainly has seemingly started for altcoins. A lot of this on the back of good news about trade deals around the world, of course, the UK and the United States last year, and now potentially something happening with China. But interestingly, Bitcoin hasn't really moved on the China news while S&P and NASDAQ futures are massively up. We have so much to unpack today with the team James, Dave and Mike.

Another macro Monday is here. Let's go. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel, hit the like button. Good morning, Mike, Dave and James. Holy crap, guys. What is happening? We have stocks up big. Bitcoin has been up, but it's flat. We have treasuries, yields way up, gold down, dollar way up. These things don't necessarily align. Mike, we'll that at the meeting

What I do want to know is have any of the kind of mega bearish sentiment Gina Martin Adams and Anna Wong has anybody turned bullish with this huge move that we're seeing now to the upside Not from the morning meeting what you described is the exact operative q1 everything went down including yields And everything is going back up and bitcoins is the best leading indicator, you mentioned that. But from Anna Wong, she noted about the tariffs. The trade war is not over, according to her. The 90-day reprieve says it's partly because I think Trump, she mentioned Trump was worried about empty shelves.

And this should come back. She still expects the May and June non-farm pay lows to be quite weak. CPI expects to be modest. Keith thinks she's worried about inflation to be contained, but worried about now if we kick into more of this wealth effect, it means inflation takes the Fed out of the picture for potentially easing. Chris Kane filled in for Gina. Gina is still sticking with that red warning in stocks. He did point out earnings have been good.

Defensive factors have been leading low volatility stocks. That's the key thing. Ira Jersey pointed out that it expects that the Fed's rather late, the Fed wants to be late but rather be correct and late than early and wrong. So this Fed's out of the picture, particularly with resassas going up. And that's the key theme from the morning meeting. Fed's out of the picture today, but still markets are heavily pricing a cut in July, correct?

Whether that's right or wrong, that is what the market is seeing. I know James, you always show us that chart, but I'm assuming that's still the case. Let's see. That's a good question. It's been three quarters of a cut. Over 80% or something, yeah. Yeah, now it looks like it's only priced in half a cut

going into December now, which is interesting from last week. It's down another 25 basis point's down another 25 basis points, up another 25 basis points, meaning the Fed funds rate would be, it's implied at 3.7. So, and remember, that's middle of the range. The effective rate right now is 4.3, even though it's 4.25 to 4.5 is the range.

But yeah, it's interesting. The Fed out of the picture, that's that's the, it's a probably good way to put it, Mike. And I agree with that. And the reason is, the look, Powell has said it in his news conferences before his press conferences before he said, we, we will risk being a little bit late, because we have tools to deal with that. We don't have tools to deal with like overinflation, not hyperinflation, but excess inflation. They don't have tools to deal with that except raising interest rates and doing QT. And those are like, those are imprecise tools. It's like doing surgery with, you know, a chainsaw sometimes. So, you know, they would rather flood the market with capital and liquidity if need be in a situation

that we have an economic downturn and they're a little bit late. It hurts the little people, and they're central bankers, they don't give a shit. And they're just going to continue to, you know, debase the currency along the way. That's the plan. That's really the only plan. And that's just going to continue to debase the currency along the way. That's the plan. That's really the only plan. And that's just reality. Print baby prints. I've said it many times at the left hand and the right hand. You got everyone's looking at rates and what's really happening is liquidity.

And that's what they're going to do. I've not been... I've said I didn't think they would cut in July. I still don't think they're going to do. I've not been, you know, I've said I didn't think they would cut in July. I still don't think they're going to cut in July. I don't think they're going to cut until unemployment goes up over five, five and a half percent. And I'm not sure that's going to happen. So there you go. But there's only a 30, 35% chance of cutting July according to Fed funds futures today,

which is right. That's a significant move off of where it was. Consider me in the 65%. But I was in the 20%. I was in the 5%. You know, which is a significant move off of where it was. Yeah. Consider me in the 65%, but I was in the 20%, I was in the 5%, it doesn't really matter. Or in the 0% when it was 100% because that was insane. How much you guys have obviously been watching this for longer than me, how many examples do we have in the past of the Fed pivoting, continuing to cut or even pausing like this and then seeing some sort of panic

and actually raising rates afterwards. Do we have a history that Volcker did that, basically? Correct? Well, the most recent relevant was what we did in this whole cycle. The Fed stayed way too easy for way too long. Trump pointed that out. Stock market made a new high at the end of 2020,

beginning of 2021, and they kept rates low until 2022. And then they raised too much, cut back 100. But we're in the middle of that right now. We're in the middle, I think, of the biggest cycle ever. Fed was way too late. Now we have this massive wealth effect, inflation sticky, Fed candies, we're stuck. Yeah, I guess that was my question is, you know, if they cut rates in July, which still,

or even through December, and then we see inflation go up. You saw it in the mid 90s. They did it in the mid 90s where they were cutting, they were cutting, they were raising, they were cutting, they were raising, it was just it was a clusterfuck back then. Yeah, you know, just wondering if that's the path that we're on, right? Because

I see the argument we made it here 1000 times that inflation was transitory and that the Fed was too late. They're always too late. But now I can see why Powell is trying not to continue cutting if he doesn't know what the data is, but it's really, I mean, it's just a terrible situation. Look, Scott, I mean, this is, it is, liquidity is the only thing that matters.

It is funny. You have to be old, but it used to be is liquidity is the only thing that matters. It is funny. You have to be old. But it used to be that liquidity was the only thing that matters. Money supply was literally the most important thing and rates people didn't give a crap about. And, you know, it's just, you know, what's old is new again, right? You know, it's not terribly surprising supply and demand first first week of economics course. That's what drives prices. And when the supply of dollars is constantly going higher and the supply of yen is constantly going higher and the supply of euros is constantly going higher, it needs to find a home. And so the question is,

what's the home? And that's really where you're at. And that's why when you hear a sailor talk or you hear anybody else talk in the Bitcoin world, they say, well, don't don't buy depreciating assets. When you see that, that's why there's this fight over the stablecoin bill, because there's about six trillion dollars in deposits that will fit, will end up in money market funds and be available instantly for investments with no friction. And that is going to happen. It's just a question of how does it happen and when does it happen? And

we do need to talk about last week's stuff because that talk about a clusterfuck. Gillibrand being a sponsor of the bill and then voting against it is one of the most cowardly acts I've seen in a very, very long time. And it makes the Democratic Party, and I've said it before, and I'm happy to say it on the show, it's acting more like a Politburo in Soviet Russia. I said Soviet Russia, I'm not talking about the current one than like a political party in a democracy. Clearly, the money flows are being centralized

in the Democratic Party, and clearly that's what's happening. You get 100% of them voting against a bill that many of them had supported at a committee is a big deal. And we need to talk about it because it really matters. When you worry about liquidity, $6 trillion between checking accounts and savings accounts that pay basically no interest is a very big deal. And we don't need that to be that way anymore. And everyone kind of understands that technology has made the need for that go away. And community banks, as

Austin Campbell talked about and others are, and the banking sector is pushing. And so it's a big deal to me. That's the biggest story of the last week, the tariff reconciliation. The biggest story about that is what the cent said on Sunday. Basically, what he said to kind of TLDR it is we're not going to get to, you know, it's, we're not going to be across the board, we're going to be strategic. He said effectively what James and I and Mike were all saying when the the day after Liberation Day, the first macro Monday, you go back and roll the tape, we all said it was crap. We all said this is ridiculous. They should be targeted, etc. What he basically said is that's what we're going to do.

So effectively, they've rolled back the nonsense and going to be moving in that direction. And so yeah, there's going to be a lot of implications there. But I do think that liquidity is what matters. And that's why, you know, risk assets have gone up. It's also Mike, every time you say Bitcoin is a leading indicator, here you have a weekend, what you have this weekend is exactly what you're seeing. You're seeing inside of crypto, a rotation from Bitcoin into alts. Outside of crypto, you're seeing Bitcoin sort of participating. And so the money is kind of feeding it. So Bitcoin is flat. But when gold is down 3% and NASDAQ

is up 3% and Bitcoin is flat, it's telling you it's 50-50. Right? It's not a leading indicator of anything. It is what it is. It's its own beast. And I suspect you're going to see a lot of that. If you want to team me off, fine. On the year, gold's up about 24%. Bitcoin's about 11. Crude oil is down about 12. Beta is flat, potentially as of this morning. Bitcoin gold, that ratio, I down about 12, beta's flat potentially as of this morning. Bitcoin gold, that ratio, I stick with Bitcoin, it's kind of hard not to be leading in, they're gonna trade much higher volatility

than the stock market. It's beta to the stock market on a 16 quarter basis is 3X. It's correlation to the stock market S&P 500 on a 16 quarter basis is 0.66, which I use 16 quarters because of four months cycle. I'll be publishing on that. It's just an article I wrote, Leverage Gold versus Beta that I will be updating and probably publishing tomorrow. But the fact is just looking at the data and look what's happened this year. Led on the way down, first quarter, Beta was down 4% or so, Bitcoin is down 12%.

Second quarter, everything's going up, Bitcoin led the way up. Scott was on top of that from the very beginning. Maybe it's showing risks now. It's only one day, but it's clearly leading indicator. Especially Bitcoin to gold, I like that ratio, partly because to me, it's indicated what I've been hearing in the macro. That is, it's flat since 2021. To me, it's part of the macro that the US stock market is way overdue for a period of

underperformance. The key thing you learn in bear markets, which maybe this isn't the bear market and stock market, is you're supposed to buy the first dip. Now, we've had the first dip. We're back to unchanged on the year. I didn't think it'd get this far, but it is. What do we do for the rest of the year? We still have a long time to go here. And so, look, I'll end with this. The key thing I point out in commodities, we have this significant bear market in commodities, bear market in commodities, bear market, crude oil. Maybe WTI crude oil gets above $65 a barrel,

but it's going down for a reason. There's no more demand pull on the global basis. There's more supply. What's the significant bull market in commodities? Gold. Gold got too expensive. Now it's stuck between 3,000 and 3,500. Maybe it gets down to 3,000,

which is good support in a bull market, but it's still way outperforming Bitcoin in the year. We're seeing it volatility increase. My point is this, by the end of the year, we're going to look back at this. I think most probably say, yes, the stock market was overdue to go down. Maybe it goes down 20%, which I'm expecting right now. And if that happens, we fully expect gold to continue outperforming Bitcoin to be lower by the end of the year.

That's my point is it's early on. Now we have all this hopium, this optimism. We're back on change in the air. Are you supposed to weigh overweight long? Now Bitcoin could be that leading indicator. I know you're going to try. I know you're going to, you know what? You're right.

We're not having the same conversation again. I'm not doing it. I love you guys to death. We're not doing it. We know exactly where you're going to go with this. We're going to argue over whether it actually is beta leading indicator. Doesn't matter. I actually want to talk about James, you look like you have something to

say. And once you do, I want to talk about the actual tariff deal in China, because this is for Monday. Okay, but let's, but just just quickly just to touch on the I shared a screen here, Scott. This is Michael Howell loves to, you know, to he takes the three month Bitcoin, like he takes Bitcoin, he moves the chart back three months, basically. And this is liquidity, global liquidity, GLI, and Bitcoin. And these are six week changes. So it kind of smooths out the data. But look, the reality is Bitcoin really is dependent on liquidity, just like gold is.

I mean, it's just the reality. And you can see here what is interesting about this is that Bitcoin does have real sharp moves down almost a little bit earlier than that three month lag. When you have sharp moves down liquidity, you can see that Bitcoin reacts a little bit quicker than it does on the way back up. So liquidity finds its way into Bitcoin after it expands. That's what this is saying. It's saying that three months after liquidity expands, it finds its way into Bitcoin and obviously gold as well. But that's reality and often into risk assets like stocks.

But where we are in the cycle is, it still has a little bit more to go likely. You can see here, it's not perfect. It really depends on what the central banks are gonna do. And that really depends, and a lot of that depends on the tariff situation. And that's right, Scott. So, but I just wanted to share that

and show how this is kind of a really important metric that I like to look at. I mean, this is the more basic Bitcoin follows global M2 chart. I mean, you can see it generally happens on the way and we know that liquidity here in blue is rising again and that Bitcoin, you know, many people expect it to follow. It's like the most popular chart right now on crypto Twitter, I would say is probably this one. But I do want to dig more deeply

into the actual US China deal, right? US China to slash tariffs during 90 day reprieve for talks. Basically I think broad strokes was that it's down from 145% to 30% for goods for our tariffs and them going down to roughly 10%, but it's a 90-day reprieve. So anyone can jump in. I'm trying to unpack why markets want to go up so badly on all this news. I'll tell you why. Yeah. Yeah. So there's two things. The disaster scenario for the United States economy is supply chains being destroyed. Right? So like, for example, my daughter works in the textile,

well, she works in the fashion industry and what they were hearing is the textile manufacturers are basically saying they are completely, if in the original tariff situation, they were completely fucked. Literally, it's just there's no way they're gonna be able to get supplies. And so if you're a manufacturer, if you're, you know, whatever, it doesn't matter where

your actual, you know, the part down-chain in the supply chain who's actually making the dresses out of the fabric, if you can't get the actual fabric, you're screwed. That was replicating throughout a plethora of industries. And so people, if you wanna know why we went to the negotiating table, it's because lots and lots of companies throughout a ton of industries are basically saying, listen, the supply chain is not ready for this sort of shock treatment.

What's amazing about that is, not amazing, but interesting about that is that Besant effectively said the same thing on Sunday. What he said is, in COVID, he basically talked about the trade-off between efficiency of supply chains and strategicness of supply chains. And he, and that's exactly right. That, that he said in COVID, we learned that our very efficient supply chains were very non-strategic. And so what we need to do is get ourselves back into that position. But that takes time.

And that means more targeted tariffs about in places where we're actually ready to compete. So lots of the things that we've been saying, certainly that I've been saying, which is that tariffs that before you can go. And don't tear things you need, right? No, no, no. Tariff things that you are ready to compete.

And don't tariff things where it takes five years to build a factory, right? You know, effectively that way. And so that is kind of the change. And it is a change. It's a change towards being more strategic, more real world, less across the boardy on these big tariffs. But at the same time, if you saw what Lutnick said over the weekend,

he said specifically, would you really how, you know, if effectively there's a consult that he brought across the board tariff is a consumption tax and but it's a consumption tax. It doesn't that you're exempted if you're buying the US. And is that really that bad? That's effectively what he said. And once again, I've said similar things. I mean, you talk about a national VAT

versus national income tax, and you could talk about those. And yes, there's regressive and there's all sorts of issues with that. But generally speaking, people don't get totally freaked out about it. And so you have the two people who are the two mouthpieces, the administration kind of getting more together. That's why the markets are up today, as opposed to this, oh my god, who's going to say what, when and where and are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot?

That doesn't mean we're out of the woods. That's why people are relaxing. Yeah, I agree with you. In a vacuum. This is the thing we do, obviously, and I get it, art of the deal, all those things. But you make a situation untenably terrible. And then you come to the negotiating table and make it better and markets go up, but it's still 30% tariffs is wildly unsustainable and historically insanely high for all goods coming from any country, much less China, right?

So it's not like this is good. Is it just progress that markets are going on? And I'm not even questioning the strategy or whatever, that's not the point, but we can't have 30% tariffs on Chinese goods in the United States and not have the economy breakdown. Not all goods, no. Well, I mean, look, it depends.

What you're gonna get is you're gonna get exemptions in places where we can't produce. And the problem with all this, and this is what we're, I have a problem is there's no way that government bureaucrats are gonna be able to figure out which are the goods to do it. I mean, the market- That's up to private industry.

That's right. And so there's definitely issues here, You know, to do it. I mean, the market... That's up to private industry. That's right. And so there's definitely issues here, but you know, it's like, you have to look at the total package. I mean, the other thing that he did this week, which is huge news that is going to be a big political problem for people, is what he did in prescription drugs. Now, why does that matter? Because that gives him air cover.

And understand that that is a very big deal. And he used trade language for it. For those who don't know, the story I'm talking about is his EO that says that the US is going to have to be considered most favored nation. Well, anyone who's ever negotiated a deal and has a CEO of a company and have run multiple businesses, I can tell you, you do contracts with initial investors. One of the most typical things you do is your first investor gets most favored nation status. What does that mean? It means that if your prices go down to somebody, that they participate. What Trump basically said is pharmaceutical companies can't screw US consumers and sell cheaper overseas, which is a very interesting idea. It makes a lot of sense. When you get people like Operation Donnish, Dr. Donnish, who I think we all know, a very

smart guy, talking about this and saying Trump is maybe the best Democratic president ever was his snarky comment this morning, but he's not wrong. I mean, Trump is moving the Republican party to the center while the media keeps saying he's an extremist. This is an idea that actually makes some sense. I mean, he's not saying we're going to control the price. He's saying, listen, if you're willing to sell XYZ drug in you know France or in Canada for you know, five dollars You can't charge eighty dollars in the United States That's what he's saying and that is and and the part of the reason for that why we have that problem is because still we Have no price transparency or competition in

Drugs or medical services in the US now that obviously is the next thing it needs to change But I think that needs Congress to do something about it. But that's a big deal because it gives political air cover to really work on tariffs and try to normalize everything. And while I would imagine pharma companies are not doing well within, you know, today, I haven't looked to be actually really interested to look at that. I read this morning.

They're down pretty high this morning. Right, so now imagine, so now we have the S&P up 3%, but pharma is down big. So what does that tell you about the magnitude of the rally in non-pharma? So there's a lot going on underneath the surface here, but what's important is if you do something that's going to be wildly politically popular, it gives you air cover on things that are going to cause, are going to be a little bit less happy. If you're calling balls and strikes on the Trump administration this weekend, yes, we've all been critical of the tariff strategy, but they're obviously got China to the table.

That's a plus. Ukraine and Russia, I mean, Zelensky and Putin are going to sit down. That's relatively crazy. A ceasefire in India and Pakistan that looked like it was escalating. It's a lot of positive headlines here. Like markets aside, I mean, that's a lot of progress in pretty major areas. I mean, but James, like you kind of said, 30% not sustainable long term. So what's the plan here? And why

are we trading higher than liberation day? Well, I mean, that like Mike said, at the beginning, it beginning, so much of that catastrophic risk has been taken off the table. I think that's what you were saying, Mike, from the morning meeting. Look, markets have to price in catastrophic risk. That's what they were doing. The catastrophic risk would be down 40%, 50%. You know, so, but that wasn't 100% probability. So it was down 20% instead, because it was a lower probability than, than 50-50, that it would be

down 50%. Does that make sense? So that's kind of the markets are pricing in instability and, and, and, and, you know, awfulizing in some, in some areas the outcome, but you, it's all blended risk-reward. And so the thing that, that kind of concerns me, though, and it continues to concern me, is the, just the amount of, of leverage that's in the system overall. And this is where, you know, I agree with Mike 100%, that this is where you got to watch these bonds and the bond yields and what's going on with, with these rates to understand what's going on with collateral, because collateral is really what drives everything, right? Because you need collateral to borrow, and you need borrowing to keep this whole thing going. There's just no way around it. You have to keep borrowing. You have to have collateral to borrow So one of the things that and it's interesting because again, I was reading him and Michael Howell's letter letter and I agree with him is that and I'll share this Because this is and I'd like to hear what Mike has to think about this as a as a former bond trader

this is something that's kind of interesting and could be something that's kind of interesting and could be reason do you see this Bloomberg screen? Yep. You got it. Okay, so what you're looking at here is a sofa rate. That's a sofa rate minus Fed funds effective rate, right? So the middle of the middle of the the range. Today, the Fed funds will be 4.33. The SOFR rate is the secured overnight financing

rate. What is that? That's the rate that that parties charge each other in order to borrow against things like US Treasuries. So you're going to secure, you know, you're going to have a secured loan, basically, you're going to, you're going to give somebody a US, or you loan a US Treasury to somebody, they're going to give you dollars for that. OK, so when the SOFR rate goes up higher than the Fed funds rate, it shows that there's, there's lack of liquidity in the system. And you can see here that it's, it's been, it's been moving upwards, you know, so you can see this trend has been going higher, that the difference between the rate charge and overnight versus the Fed funds rate, and it's becoming more volatile. And that

just tells you that there's a lack of dollars in the system. And so that's something that's concerning. And when you look at that and the move rate, the move rate has come back down to about 100, I think, is that right? And is that, James, is that why the dollar would be up, and we wouldn't see stocks down or you know situation Yeah, because you're raising the rate the the price of dollars even though you know, because usually you have an inverse correlation, obviously Yeah

That's why this that's why long-term bond yields a dollar. That's all kind of disjointed right now It all has to do with this the the liquidity you one string, and you've got all these things that happen that you're not thinking about. And that, but this is really important. And so when you're worried about, what am I concerned of? I'm concerned what we started talking about at the beginning of the conversation, which is, we see economic indicators that are really soft and showing that we're grinding lowers in economy, and we have a Fed that's loathed to, to, or they're, they're lackadaisical. They're, they're, they're not going to act quickly. They're going to wait for the data. The data is lagging, which means that they're going to lag the lagging data. And that it's just, it happens over and over and over again. That's It's just it happens over and over and over again. That's something that does concern me.

But right now we're watching corporate earnings and we have to see where they keep coming in in this next round. The other question I have for both of you guys is I'm looking at the bond yields. The US is up almost eight basis points. Germany is up over nine basis points and the UK is up nine basis points. Germany is up over nine basis points and the UK is up nine basis points.

Well, that's money going back into the US. It's money flowing back into the US, US treasuries, right? So it's- That's why is our yield up too? You would think our yield would be down if that's true. Well, they're both, well, that doesn't necessarily mean that ours is, it's up less, right? So, it depends on- yeah, but only marginally.

Yeah. Yeah. I just think it's interesting that it's across the board. But it's also going into it's also going into risk assets across the board. Money's coming out of bonds. That means the bond price goes lower and the yield goes up because they're selling bonds to go buy your risk assets. Exactly. But it's interesting that it's global. It's not just the US. That's my point.

Yeah, absolutely. Because of the kind of this backing off of the tariff war that we kind of waded into. NASDAQ just opened, gapped up 4%. Yeah. It's a reason to probably come down today. But still, I mean, that 4% move, Mike, I mean, is that simply just what you said before and what James just reiterated that the catastrophic risk is off the table? So everything up? So that's the thing I have to put on my macro hat is that we know that we've seen the Fed's willing to be behind the curve, stated goal of the Fed. We know that. We've seen austerity in this country, arguably, but there's certainly some

significant cutbacks on that fiscal. We know tariffs are there. Number one thing about tariffs is they hurt corporate profits. That hasn't changed much. Yeah, we've got past the abyss of 60 VIX, but now we've had a gap of one higher back to unchanged on the year, and the VIX, but now we've had a gap open higher back to unchanged on the year. And the VIX is below is at 19. My first thought is if you were smart enough and a student enough to buy when everything hated it, when VIX was at 60, you're supposed to be selling now testing shorts, make the market proof strength. Now we all know what's happening.

Everything goes up together, including yields. And we see things leading that. Now it's okay, make it prove that. My bias is this is the year that we're finally supposed to see a down year in equities. Now prove it, prove otherwise. But the macro is, like you said, this is so global. And then we have to look over how did we get here? We got to the highest US stock market valuations and versus the rest of the world and versus

commodities in multi-decades by doing the opposite of what we're doing right now. And you're seeing that in commodities. I've been pointing out this for a while. Crude oil going down, gold going up. There's still a bull market in gold and a bear market in crude oil. Now we're adjusting. That's my point is as we get to a massive gap open higher and enthusiasm on a Monday, my thought is if you're leverage trader, you sell. I don't disagree with that. I mean, you see this big, everyone knows you see a big gap from the weekend and you short it until the gap closes even at the very least, technically, right? But make it prove, make it prove strength. Stay above that 200 day moving average in beta and this S&P 500, which is rolling over. Stay above that. Stay above that 200-day moving average in Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which is rolling over. At least it just levels. This is a great opportunity I see and to make it proven and by the end of the year, if everything's up, wonderful,

we're great. If it's down, that's a global depression kicking in. I think that, look, we're a macro show, but we're also our primary audience is crypto. So let's talk about this in terms of what you're looking at, you know, whether you're talking about Ethereum or Solana or Chainlink, or you go down the chain towards, you know, towards Sui or Phantom or, you know, get more esoteric and certainly things like Tau, you know, BitTensor, what you're seeing is a belief in the crypto community, true or false, doesn't matter, it's a belief that, and it's a fact that unlike stocks, those things in mass are down 50% plus from their highs.

Whereas the stock market is basically bumping up against, you know, very close to its all-time high. So yes, you can say, and they're all risk assets, there's no question about it. You know when the planet is gonna say that BitTensor or Chainlink or Ethereum aren't risk assets. But there is this thing in markets where all risk assets are not created equal,

and if we ever get to a point, and I think we're there, where everything doesn't move together and you can't throw a dart at a risk asset and know that it's going up because we're pumping liquidity, then the question is, is what do you buy? What do you sell? And how do you position your portfolio? So Mike's general statement is a hundred percent I'm on board with, which is don't buy at extreme stretched valuations when volatility

is, you know, has come off this. I mean, this is the time when you take your profit. I agree with that, except that the things that people are buying in the crypto sphere are still down 50% from their all time high. They know we're close to. Or way more. Or way more, depending on what you are. Now you're talking about things doubling that were down, you know, 99 that are down, you know, less.

But look, a lot of this stuff's going be worthless. And a lot of them are going to have real terminal value when they address their markets. And so the question becomes, you got to figure out which is which. But the risk narrative as a macro show, if we come to the conclusion, and we say the following, the following two points, which more or less, I think I agree with Mike on. One, that risk assets are not necessarily in a deadly situation from a macro point of view anymore, but many risk assets are dramatically stretched on valuation. Then the question is, do you sell everything or do you sell the stuff that's stretched on valuation? To me, it's the latter. And that's really where I'm a

little bit different. And notice I haven't talked about Bitcoin because I don't believe it's trading like a brisk asset. I think that there's some things about Bitcoin, like for example, everyone thought Michael Saylor buys on the weekend. In reality, that's not true. We know this quite conclusively today because- He announces them on the weekend, people. He announces it on the weekend,

but he clearly bought it early last week because for the fourth week in a row, his buys are well below the price that it was when he made the announcement. Now, it wasn't clear because of the volatility how that was. Well, now we know it. Now we know he bought in weakness early in the week and then kind of rode it up. And so that's kind of interesting. So this narrative that people keep saying

that he's always like top ticking and pushing the price in order to get it done, that's just not what he's doing. And I think James has known that but really hasn't been able to say because that might be considered inside baseball. Now it's public because it's obvious from the chart. It's also like, you know, Saylor's a bit self-deprecating about it.

He's made the joke, I'll be buying the top forever, right? It kind of feeds that snowball, but it's not the case. He just buys. He just buys. But why does this matter? It matters because you're looking at supply-demand dynamics. And look, you made the point this morning.

You had an interesting tweet, which I had a quick response to, Scott, right? Which is, are we? We're gonna talk about that. In a bubble. Okay, so then why don't you say what you did and then we can respond to it? Because I think that it's really important because we we are trying to understand macro trends. I think a macro trend. I don't like the words alt season. I really don't. I hate it because it implies the same sort of stupidity, which is let's just buy everything and throw a dart. But I do think that that that people are looking to that there's money that is looking for a home that wants to invest in things that they believe will have value

as mark as this market area. And when I saw Ethereum went up like 30% in a day. I think that that's a pretty classic shortcoming. What yours? Yeah, I think that what you're saying is very 100%. Yeah, David's over that one. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, there was never Yeah, I think that what you're saying is very accurate. 100%. Yeah. David's all over that one. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, there was never, yeah. I mean, the Ethereum at 1400 revisiting the 2018 bull market highs was as gratuitous a buying opportunity as Bitcoin at 74 on this retrace a couple weeks ago. This is what I said, and I'm assuming this is the one you're talking to about.

I hate to even think this because I'm a huge fan, but Bitcoin treasury companies raising debt to buy Bitcoin could be the next bubble. That's what I said and it was because, and I love David Bailey from Bitcoin Magazine, but David Bailey's knock a motor to merge with KindlyMD raised 710 million to start Bitcoin's treasury strategy. This is the exact playbook from what I've read superficially as Jack Mahler's is taking with SoftBank and Kenner Fitzgerald at all. It's obviously all mimicking with very little nuance exactly what Sailor is doing. And I think we're seeing in my mind a bifurcation of strategies. I think everybody here wants to see more of this, right, which is companies adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet.

I don't know meta plan, it's mechanics exactly, but I think we all wanna see, you know, the Teslas and the squares and companies saying, listen, 5, 10% of our cash balance sheet should be in Bitcoin as a hedge. But turning every, all of these companies and this many of them into vehicles to leverage Bitcoin? Well, seems scary. And why do we need so

many? And listen, like I said, like I like it in conceptually, obviously, but yet, James, yeah, let's, let's pull that apart a little bit, though. First of all, nobody's gonna catch Michael Saylor, and in his quest to be the largest Bitcoin treasury and you know, he hasn't said this explicitly. But let's back up. 21, which is the Kenner Fitzgerald CEP SPAC that is buying or merging in 21. It's got Tether and SoftBank with it. But buying or merging in 21, it's got Tether and SoftBank with it. But what's important about that one is that it's different than the other treasury companies

at this point because Jack Mahler's and their team have explicitly expressed the goal to make a Bitcoin finance company. So their goal is to get enough Bitcoin in their balance sheet that they can do things like collateralized loans or you can borrow against your Bitcoin and other products that the companies that have enough Bitcoin will be able to do. Well, they're going to have to get a lot of Bitcoin to do that.

That's number one. But that's their goal. That's their stated goal. So that's a little bit different than just companies putting Bitcoin in the balance sheet and holding it. And Michael Saylor has not said this explicitly, but it's kind of obvious that he will do that too. He will eventually have products that are created around all this Bitcoin he's got on his balance sheet. So that I do like. I don't like, you know, just random companies

just trying to mimic the micro strategy strategy, the strategy strategy, because- I say it every time. They're so far behind. It's okay, there's nothing wrong with it. Having Bitcoin to your balance sheet is going to be healthy for, you know, most companies, I believe, depending on liquidity and, you know, how much? Yeah, like, you know,

is debt to do it. That's a different, that's a different dynamic. That's, that's the, that's the point. It's like, nobody's gonna catch micro strategy on that. So, the Treasury of a company- There is a nuance. The other thing is meta planet. The meta planet thing is that there's no function

for retirees and individual investors that buy Bitcoin in their accounts in Japan. So that's why that is a proxy for it. That makes sense. That's micro strategy two years ago, but it makes perfect sense, right? I mean micro strategy the argument was there's no ETFs. Nobody really wanted to buy GBTC So you buy micro strategy for exposure to Bitcoin obviously it's evolved into that. I see that I'm just concerned if we end up with 20 30 of these companies

We see miners already doing it just debt debt debt debt debt basically getting long, we will get a 50% trauma on the Bitcoin at some point. I don't know if it's from here, it's from 150, but we will. And a bunch of them are going to then be the triggering sales of Bitcoin because they're not as savvy as Michael Saylor, and they're going to get liquidated and they're going to have issues. And that's going to be the thing. I shouldn't say that I think it's necessarily the catalyst for the next bear market, but I think it'll push Bitcoin down

an extra 15% next bear market because at the bottom, they're gonna be forced to sell. Yeah, but it reminds me more of, and you guys can remember this, especially Mike and Dave who were trading these things, but it reminds me more of the 99, 2000 tech bubble where every single time you had somebody, some company announced that they have a new .com title. You know, it was like this, it went up, it went up a hundred percent, 200 percent, 300 percent. It's insane. So we're having the same thing happening in the markets

here where if you announce Bitcoin treasury, oh my God, you're up 20, 40, 50, 100% or more. And we're seeing it. But you're not. I mean, that's the thing. I mean, yes, look, I remember initially, just like, just like you know, they come back is the perfect example. So GameStop went when they they were at 25. He announces it, It drops to 22 and now rallies and it's now trading at 27. That's not the kind of move that you're discovering in there. And GameStop more than almost any company on the planet is prone to GameStop. GameStop initially went from 25 to 30. Okay.

And then it dropped because there was no real plan, you know No, look I know because I bought GameStop when it happened at 25, I don't think I ever saw 30 in my account I mean, you know if it did it wasn't maybe an intraday, but it pretty much dropped immediately And now is rallied back and it's slightly up, you know I mean, it's up 10% but it's you know, whatever I mean we it's funny Mike and I both kind of laugh. All the people who like say a 10% gain is like, yeah, you know, 10% gain is pretty good when you know, yeah, it used to be a good year. So it's like, you look at this stuff,

but, but the thing about it is, is we're not seeing it in the crypto world. I mean, the funding rates, even on Ethereum funding rates are low, you know, at these levels. So it's like the perpetual, it's not coming from, none of this is coming from the derivative side. That's really the important side, the important thing there. But you're right. I mean, I think that when we get a blow off top, and I always harp on the Bitcoin hash rate versus price chart, but the Bitcoin hash rate versus price chart. But the Bitcoin hash rate versus price chart is, if you go back to all time, is really, really indicative of something. So that to me is the point. The point is that you have a network that is six times stronger than it was back the last time Bitcoin made its high when it went back.

Price is still well below that. Hasn't even come close to euphoria. And I guess it's possible that this time will be different, that we won't see euphoria and over exuberance on the asset. But every time someone says this time is different, people like Mike and myself both go, uh-oh. The big red warning sign is when people say this time is different to justify high prices. But when people say this time is different to justify

low prices, it's equally true, that red sign. And honestly, the amount of euphoria in this market in the crypto world is just not there. It's not even close to there. And so that to me is why I say what I do. And when you look at a macro backdrop that has become suddenly constructive, and the reason markets are up today, frankly, are because people don't know what to do with their money.

Right? You know, it's like they're trying to figure out where to put it. And that, you know, because we are creating more money as James keeps talking about. And so you have to put it someplace. But do you really want to put it in, you know, where the market cap to GDP is double and at the high end of history, or you want to put it in more speculative stuff, you know, that that that is well below its high. And people ultimately end up moving to it's like the whole nifty fifty or the dogs of the

Dow remember that one Mike dogs of the Dow You know in bull markets the dogs of the Dow did crazy Well, and it's just it's for those who don't know what that is Back in the days when dinosaurs worked the walk the earth, you know in in the last Millennium There was a strategy that said that by the underachieving stocks from the previous regime when markets start to move higher. And it was, you know, it's obviously we're much more sophisticated today and the Dow is only 30 stocks, but it's funny. You know, I kind of feel it's similar energy. It was pretty much, it was a lazy man's sector rotation

you know. Yeah exactly exactly. So I think I really appreciate you touching on the systematic risk now of this mentality of people not even considering you don't have to buy other stocks other sectors you can buy bonds and stick with cash and just not lose money when anybody else is losing money and that's right like there is a complete systematic risk now. Unfortunately, I've been calling the inordinate burden of Bitcoin going up. And let's remember why what was MicroStrategy started buying Bitcoin in the first place, because they're a failed company in terms of competing in the market. He admitted it.

It's what can't keep up anymore. Jeff Booth pointed this out. Technology has happened so fast. If you're a company even like GameStop, I was so elated to see Coinbase decide not to double down on their correlation to cryptos by not buying, putting Bitcoin in their holdings. It was like, oh, thank God. I mean, you're already two times leverage. But now what's happening is we have a complete lessons in life. It's just a pile on fact and you never you want to be signed when they're yelling So let's look at 2020 but those of us get really really bullish Bitcoin because we encrypt as we can see what's happened

The it took basically three bitcoins to match 1 s and p 500 basically three that's when sailor popped down We had the biggest money pump in history now in the highest ever. It's basically 18 Bitcoins equal 1 S&P 500. So if you're part of a stock market and you're putting that in your treasury, you're doubling down your risk. To me, it's like an oil company buying other oil companies and putting in their reserves. No, you're supposed to stick with treasury. It's silly. Let me finish. This is an asset that's being adopted though. So it's not... I get the adoption things but there's places where when you have high volatility and high correlation to beta you're supposed to look at more of a trader's standpoint. This is the most traded space on the planet. Cryptos are a casino. There's millions of

them and on the year they look at the market vectors crypto index it's unchanged. It's great for trading. The only thing that's really been going up is bitcoin. Now we have this issue where everything's back up, beta is up, yields are up, and what do you want to do here? I'm like, this is to me a classic opportunity. But the thing that you're pointing out is just think of the systematic risk simplistically of Bitcoin doing what it has in history. So let's look at that last example.

When in 2021, it corrected about 76% to the low in 2022. A normal correction for Bitcoin is 50% from the peak. Now we've gone back up near the high. We haven't had that full correction. Maybe it makes all two highs. It's going to happen if it does, and it's partly because stock market keeps going up. That point I need to make is we have virtually never seen

a period of at least a quarter, certainly not a year, where Bitcoin's gone up and stock market's gone down. That's my point. It's 0.66, the quarter correlation of Bitcoin to to beta. It's 3x of Bitcoin correlation to stock market. So my point is going forward, maybe we'll get lucky. Maybe it's different this time. My point is anybody who's buying a sachet should fully expect to lose more when the stock market goes down. And this year was a good example. Beta was down 4%, Q1, Bitcoin was down 12%.

Bitcoin was down 12% from a intermediate peak based on an idiosyncratic thing. If you smooth it out and go back to November, your numbers are wrong. And we have to understand there was this massive peak because the President of the United States came out as a Bitcoiner. You know, to say that it has anything to do with stock market beta is just it's just silly

I mean, I can't even it's Dave. It's a fact. It's the numbers your mathematician. It's the fact on the screen The yeah, you're picking a number you're I'm not 6-9 16 quarters. It's a cycle. It's just look at that the rolling 16 quarter correlation it's a cycle that it's just look at that the rolling 16 quarter correlation peaked in around 2011 around 0.67 right now it's 0.68 so high since 2016 that's just the fact of the rolling 16 quarter and then we have to agree that it works in four-year cycles that's 16 quarters you you have to agree that you know in introductory logic the very first thing they teach you is that everything correlation and causation. And sometimes the causation lines up and sometimes it doesn't.

Now liquidity clearly is causation. James has talked about that and stocks and Bitcoin are both on causation. But there's this other thing that's going on. There's other things called adoption and it matters a lot. Agreed with that. The network, the Bitcoin network, the hash rate in the network is six times what it was in the 2021. You know, hype, the 2021 hype was massively overextended compared to where network and wallet and

every other adoption metric was Scott, can you bring up the price versus hash rate? Sorry. Yes, one second. It's an easy one. It's just a massive difference. And so to me, that matters. Back when that happened, the only people who could buy Bitcoin were,

and people were paying through the nose. Just remember when this was happening, which one's that? Okay, well, yeah. Yeah, it's, which is green. That's the hash rate. Yeah, that's the price and hash rate. Yeah. Look at that hash rate.

That's a strange visualization. Let me. That visualization is different than the one that I always look at, but it's the same chart. It doesn't matter. It's just where you can read the base. There's the one that I always look at, blockchain.com.

Yeah, that one's easy. But you can see it but but keep in mind What was going on in 21? So, you know, I had a friend talking to me about grayscale. Oh this great thing You're an accredited investor. This is free money for you. All you got to do is buy this thing and Then you're gonna be out wait six months and sell it to retail rubes who are going to pay 20% plus more than the value of Bitcoin. And if you're if you're really smart, you can hedge it. And so some people did and some people did it unhedged. And then what happened? We know what happened,

right? You know, and the premium collapsed, kaboom, kaboom, kaboom. You know, by the way, I just want just for those who are trading in the audience I was thinking about five minutes ago that every single time we see the Bitcoin price drop From the open to you know around 945 the first 15 minutes It is it is it is arguably the best intraday predictor ever and it just did it again but but Sorry, that's a diversion, but it's just worth noting for people in the audience. I mean, it is something that we all watch.

And you put in a low in the morning and then up. Yeah, but the point that I'm trying to make here is that Bitcoin is all about adoption. And it's the digital gold issue and the market cap of gold. I actually think gold got overextended, but it's going to be at 4,000 by the end of the year. I would not be surprised to see it because of all the liquidity gyrations that are going to happen. It really wouldn end of year. I would not be surprised to see it because of all the liquidity

gyrations that are going to happen. It really wouldn't surprise me. Maybe 3500. I don't know. I think Bitcoin will continue to eat into gold now that we're at these points, and we'll see how it goes. But when you do these ratios, it's really about adoption. You can't ignore state adoption.

You can't ignore nation state adoption. You can't ignore corporate adoption. All of those things are on the supply side Are on the demand side of the equation which you can see from that hash rate that that there's sovereign adoption Happening behind the scenes that I'm out there in the end that on the open market. They're mining You know very close to or at a loss, right? So it's very very close to that So the other piece of this that's really, you know, that that's kind of mind blowing is every single person in the world of Bitcoin

that criticizes Plan B and their power law says the same, some variation on the same, the same issue, which is stock to flow, not power law. Yeah, sorry. Okay. Stock to flow. Exactly. That stock to flow is only the supply side and you need to and where the hell is the demand going to come from? And now we're all sitting here, at least not all of us, but I'm certainly sitting here and James is certainly sitting here saying, well, the demand side is here. So all of a sudden you start asking yourself, well, wait a minute, is there some truth to this stock to flow and will the demand, you know, continue to propel it that way? And that to me is why it's different. Now that said, I appreciate what we're saying.

I just think that we're gonna continue to see money pumping in. And so as long as liquidity is pumping in, I just think the money has to place us to find a home. And you're right, Mike, there are people, if you listen to what Saylor said, or forget Jack Mahler who makes Saylor seem more conservative. That's just a fact. It's like, why am I putting my money, if I know that they're

going to be inflating money supply by 7% or 8% a year, why the hell am I putting my money in something paying me 4%? That's a guaranteed locked in loss. That's the answer to your question whether you believe it or not that's the answer to the question. No there's well this guarantees in life but we got to show a screen if you're gonna show screens I'm glad to show too and just the fact of course and we all agree the hash rate but we can argue it as much as possible I'll be publishing this tomorrow but no 16 quarters the correlation between Bitcoin and stock market 0.66 is the highest ever versus gold at zero. This is leverage bait. You can argue with all you want, but it's what it has been. Maybe it's

change. It says the same charts in here. Here's Bitcoin. Here's the S&P 500. I remember, I was really bullish Bitcoin in the past, certainly when people hated it. It wasn't now. Everybody loved this widely adopted and it's the highest correlation ever. When it was low correlation in 2020, I got it. But this is just part of the cycles working. My point is if we can get through this year, stock market up, Bitcoin up, that's math is what you expect. But if we get through this year, stock market down, Bitcoin up, now that's a substantial statement. That probably flipped me. I fully expect that's unlikely. My base case for me in stock market down, Bitcoin down more. We bounced and now let's

see where we go from here. And it's just the fundamentals of what's changed versus what's happened overnight is nothing. We still have tariffs. We still have the Fed who can't ease. We still have austerity in this country. We have the most elevated stock market in hundreds of years. That's the only way you can support things like Shibu, you know, that are back to like $10 trillion in Dogecoin that are back to like $30 trillion, I'm sorry, billion dollars

in market cap. Those are going to like $30 trillion, I'm sorry, billion dollars in market cap. Those are going to be hammered at some point. And you have to say, Mike, a couple things that like we were talking about last week, you mentioned that you thought that 94, 95 was a really key area for Bitcoin. I might be convinced if we ended up higher. So obviously now we're at 105. This one actually really caught my attention, which is so hard now with on StreamYard to remove someone's chart and put up another one. the of black market Bitcoin ETF, which I had no idea. But then the other thing you, and you mentioned- Do you wanna know why, by the way, Scott?

We had months and months and months and months and months and months and outflows. Yeah, we had months and months and months and months and months and outflows. Let my comment first, but I'm gonna tell you the why, because I actually understand the why. Go ahead, you do the why first. The why is that Goldman and Morgan, et cetera,

have had massive corporate demand, and pension fund demand, insurance company demand for non-deliverable forwards and derivative contracts based that are swaps based on Bitcoin. And they used to use the futures on the CME, which is why the futures the CME had the premium. And now they realize I've been at a 15 basis point management fee, fuck that shit, you know, they're making over a percent on these trades, so they don't care. So they're holding it. So

it's not Goldman. It's like everyone who says, Oh, it's Goldman thinks it's going on. It's like everyone who says, oh, it's Goldman thinks it's going on. No, Goldman doesn't. It's one analyst. It's the same as saying that BlackRock is buying Bitcoin when you know that they're buying it for their customers. It's telling you the demand is there for derivatives. And remember something that's really interesting about it.

That's with a backdrop of stupid capital laws. Because if you're long Bitcoin and you're short Bitcoin via swaps, you have to take both sides as impaired capital. You don't get to offset them. Now, I don't know how they treat iBit because it's an ETF. Maybe the haircut there is better. But the truth is, is the reason that this is buying is because it's supporting derivative demand from their customer base. The truth is, is the reason that this is buying is because it's supporting derivative demand

from their customer base. And their customer base is, I don't know enough about Goldman's customer base to know how much of it are retail aggregators versus insurance companies, blah, blah, blah. But that's what that means. And that's why the futures premium doesn't exist anymore. This was going to be the point I was like trying to finish

was that we had this long streak of outflips and we pointed out that it was likely to carry trade unwinding. Now you're getting inflows and you see that Goldman Sachs is the largest holder. This is kind of isn't this sort of the opposite side of that? Exactly. Exactly. That's the key thing that I want to emphasize.

And years ago, five, six years ago, when I kept pointing out, we loads of us are really bullish Bitcoin. It was the questions I got from entities like that, some of the most significant banks and financial economists on the planet. Remember, I deal with the Bloomberg terminal. You want to line up and criticize me? Sorry, you got to get in line. They start first. They were asking me the questions. What is this space? What's going on? Now I get the opposite. I see the headlines of how excited they are about it at certain extreme levels. It's the same thing. Goldman was placed against on that headline of crude oil going 150 three years and Any thoughts on that Dave or James? It's just look, I think we sometimes we get into these conversations because we have a

longer timeline of investment horizon than the typical person. And my timeline is my horizon for investment is very long. And so I'm not worried about these, you know, 20 or 30% drawdowns or even another 50% drawdown because it only produces opportunity for me. I'm not worried about the next six to eight weeks. I'm concerned I am tuned into it because it provides opportunity, but that's my opinion. I mean, my opinion is that the, and I just asked Grok this question, we'll see if I get an answer,

but my gut tells me that the average time horizon for the swaps that are part of these ETF inflows that I believe are going on, is multi-year. And that matters, because I think that you're talking about long-term holders that people moving into. And Matt Hogan says this as well, by the way. And he has a much better seat for understanding this than any of the four of us do.

I think that you're talking about, okay, hold on, it's, Grok is actually answering my question here. It's somewhere between, you know, whatever, equities, yeah. Yeah, it's multi-year. The average is probably between one and a half and two years is the likely answer. And so you're talking about long-term positions being hedged, which is not nearly as prone to

the inflow-outflow nonsense. And the reason we saw the carry trade unwinding was because they were, we know what was happening. They were all in futures. And so now it's pulling into this. So I think that it's just more long-term demand is what's been driving this market. So it's not crazy. I mean, we've all said it's been spot led. That's the reason. Now, what will be really interesting is to see when we start getting indexes in ETFs, so we start getting more interest in other things.

But right now, I would say the institutional interest in everything other than Bitcoin in crypto is close to negligible. But the institutional interest in Bitcoin is the beginnings of a tidal wave. I mean, it feels like a tsunami. And the tsunamis don't end when there's no froth. That's really the point that I'll make. It's really that. So that's why I think time horizon's on buying.

Because if in fact these were all short-term traders buying this stuff and that's why it was expanding, yeah, then Mike would be right. And it's absolutely prone to, oh, God, the first twitch, we need to drop it. But every time you talk about the size of the corrections, the size of the corrections in Bitcoin, if you normalised it based upon the adoption metrics, it was from when it got incredibly frothy. Every other one of these quote four year cycles got very, very frothy. Froth in Bitcoin looks like the same level of froth in Bitcoin would be somewhere in the neighbourhood of the four hundred and forty four thousand that Josh Mann talked about that's froth You know a hundred to a hundred fifty thousand hundred and thirty thousand whatever that's not froth And it's just it's just based upon adoption metrics. It's just it's just that's just it now does that mean it can't drop of course it can drop Yeah, I'm on your I'm with you that this is just getting started when I take a look at Bitcoin dominance here

So just I know we're about to wrap but I'm with you that this is just getting started when I take a look at Bitcoin dominance here. So just I know we're about to wrap, but this was the first time that we saw Bitcoin go up meaningfully and all coins go up meaningfully more in this cycle, which to me is a, you know, third to sixth inning phenomenon of a Bitcoin bull run and not a ninth inning phenomenon of a Bitcoin bull run. When E ninth inning phenomenon of a Bitcoin bull run. When ETH and Sol and all those are looking really frothy again, I think that will start to be a signal, Dave, regardless of the price of Bitcoin. We're just for the first time seeing anybody even get interested in these other assets

beyond Bitcoin and crypto right now. So it does feel very beginning more than an end. We literally have not seen money move into the larger cap altcoins this entire cycle, meaningfully like that. So, you know, Mike, you might disagree, I don't know, but it feels like now we're gonna start to see some actual FOMO and froth when Ethereum runs

and then all the things on Ethereum start running with it. Be careful saying when when you should say if I make the mistake. I think I think the whole crypto space will be fine as long as the stock market goes up and I'll stick with this. Bitcoin is more likely to go down if the stock market goes down. And I think that's the risk for this year. I actually think everybody agrees with that in a vacuum, just the expectation of how much the stock market will go down and when.

But yeah. And how quickly. What's the number one measure of liquidity is, when we talk about liquidity, let's not forget what creates liquidity. Two times GDP is US stock market. We can only say, have said that once in history, back in 1930s.

I know Japan. They said for a while, didn't work. I know it's a small sample size. Well, Japan 1989, those of us who lived it, I mean, I started in business trading with Japanese right at the peak in 1988, well, it'll be before so. I just, you know, I know that it's only a small sample size here, but the way that Bitcoin has performed

since liberation day versus stocks, I know that it can't extrapolate that long has been surprising to me. And the fact that on the tail end of that, we're seeing now the speculation in crypto comeback, it just feels like it's early cycle. But you know, I will give you I will give you the if and not the when I think that's fair guys. Another incredible show 1006. Sorry. Didn't mean to keep you guys too. I wish it was just three hours long. Sorry, I'm long way. Sorry. Didn't mean to keep you guys till I wish it was just three hours long. Sorry, I fell out of it. Yeah, we all are to some degree depending on the topic. But guys give Mike,

Dave, James, of course, a follow. Incredible that now like, this show is like three x the size of all of my other shows. And like I've said before, I was just in Dubai. Now even in Dubai, where you'd think it's a bunch of all of my other shows. And like I've said before, I was just in Dubai. Now, even in Dubai where you'd think it's a bunch of alt coiners, only thing I hear about is Macro Monday. It's like, I literally do nothing else. It's the only thing I do for a living. We appreciate it.

Have Macro Monday, but everybody loves you guys. So thank you so much and we will see all of you next Monday. Bye everyone. Let's go.