The Wolf Of All Streets - Does The Crypto Bull Market Start Today?

Episode Date: October 1, 2024

James Butterfill, the Head of Research at CoinShares, joins me to review the latest in crypto and to share his insights from his crypto research.  James Butterfill: https://x.com/jbutterfill Andrew Parish from The Arch Public, will join in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.  Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/  Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus  ►► WANT MORE? JOIN MY COMMUNITY AND GET EVERYTHING WOLF OF ALL STREETS! 👉https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ ►►LEAVE YOUR COMMENTS HERE! EARN WEEKLY TOKEN REWARDS! 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/r6ZvMws ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin just closed its best September in history. September is supposed to be the worst month for Bitcoin. That did not happen this time, leading many to say, does the bull market start right now? Are we already in it? Are we trending up? I'm going to tell you what happens in October is after green September's spoiler. I think you know it's really, really good. And we're going to talk about everything else that's happening in this market and in the macro with one of my favorite guests from CoinShares, James Butterfield. Of course, I've got Andrew Parrish from Arch Public on the back half. Let's go. I'm going to leave it. I'm going to leave it. It looks great. If I was a Korean pop star and I did this or I put it down like this, I would be in the news. And everybody would be trying to copy my amazing hairstyle.

Wasn't that one of those guys? He curled it like this. And it went exceptionally viral. That's what I know. That's what I know. But look at this. Nuts. I'm sorry for all the people who are going to listen to this on audio and have no idea what I'm talking about.

But it's time to bring on James. and we're going to talk about the market. James, I want to show you something really quickly. This is a chart of Bitcoin seasonality and how we perform in months. We were supposed to have a terrible September, if you recall. It was supposed to be bad. It was supposed to be awful. Our best September ever, 7.29%. 2016, the second best we ever had, 6.04%. There's only been four green

Septembers ever in the history of Bitcoin. Now, if we take a look at those green ones, when we were up 2.35% in 2015, October, 33%. 6% in 16, 14%. That's the worst, believe it or not, in October. 3.91% in 23. We went up 28.52% in October, leaving us with big question marks as to what's going to happen now. We've only ever had two red Octobers. Hunt for red Octobers, if you will. Sean Connery, for anybody who's my age. I mean, we just had our best September ever. Shouldn't that theoretically, based on history, mean October is going to look exceptionally good?

No. Come on, James. Sorry to shoot you down. I just think we as a Bitcoin community spend too much time looking at history. I do think actually prices will rise in October, but not for that reason. A really good example of this is the halving. Everyone looked at all the other halvings and thought, okay, because prices have risen after the halving, they should this time round too.

The thing is, we've only got a sample size of three, I think, prior to this halving, the halving this year. There's not a huge amount to go on there. So it's not statistically significant. And I think it's similar with this kind of seasonality analysis as well. I think the Bitcoin prices are not driven by people looking backwards and thinking, oh, it rose in September last year, so it should rise again this year.

I think there's a lot more credible story to be talking about here. And that's what's going on with the Fed, what's going on in China, things like that. And even Israel, for instance, I think would be supportive of Bitcoin prices. So I think there's a lot more to talk about on that front than the seasonality side of things. Yeah, to be fair, when you look at these Octobers, I mean, 2017 had the biggest October. That was after a bad September, right? A 40% up after 7% down in 2021. So basically, October has just generally gone up, but it does tend to perform better, I guess. We've just never had a green September that led into a green October.

Let's look at history. I mean, quite often, the Fed is making decisions in Jackson Hole late August. So we know they influence prices. Last year, in particular, we were sort of floating around with the Grayscale Court ruling around this sort of time. And that was obviously became clear, it was it went in Grayscale's favor. So you could argue that in 2023, a lot of the price moves were due to specifically Grayscale and the court ruling with the SEC. So I think quite often when you look into the color things, it's not specifically to do with October. It's to do with just what's going on in the markets. That's fair. Yeah. When you look at election years, just as another data point, we've got 2016, you had a 6%, 14%, and then November, December, good, 5 and 30.

Go up to 2020, you had 27.7, 42.95, 46.92, but that was even with a red September. And we're in another election year. So listen, I agree that history is not that conclusive, but we do have a few data points at least here that we're in the part of the cycle where we should see a good fall. And that's your point, that could be the Fed. I mean, 50 basis point cut, we haven't talked about that, you and I, yet.

That was a little aggressive. Well, actually, we expected it, the first cut, to be 50 base points. We were calling this, I don't know, six, nine months ago. It's just because the Fed knee-jerked on the way up, and it did in January 2022. It knee-jerked. It suddenly said, oh, actually, inflation is way worse than we thought it is. It's not transitory. We're going to be doing 75 base points.

And that popped the bubble for Bitcoin. You look intraday at Bitcoin price moves. They were very aggressive when the Fed came out with that statement on 4th of January. Flip that around to now, it's the other way around. We've seen macro data, particularly jobs data, data coming well below expectations and quite a few consistent downgrades or revising of historical jobs numbers and and i think the fed has suddenly thought actually things aren't as bad as they are and there's a knee jerk on the way down so the consensus until a month beforehand and less than that two weeks was 25 bps and suddenly we

had a bit of macro data out that was worse than expected. And I think we're going to continue to see that throughout the rest of this year in particular, and I think it should be supported for Bitcoin prices. When the futures market is now saying 75 bps, it cuts. The Fed, if you look at the dot price now, implying 50 bps. And so I do think it could come in if we get – I do think we will get some weaker jobs numbers in particular. We've got the jobs job openings data today. I've not seen – I don't know if it's being published yet,

but that would be indicative of a healthy job market or not. I think most of the jobs numbers are going to be quite weak throughout the rest of this year, And therefore, there's much greater risks or chances of greater rate cuts in the Fed's current pricing. And I think that would be quite supportive of Bitcoin. Yeah, yesterday on Macro Monday, I was showing sort of the charts of M2 in the US, but M2 globally in the chart of Bitcoin. And to be fair with a number of other assets, but generally when we see a lot of liquidity

coming into the global financial system, Bitcoin does well. And this is all a story of more potential liquidity, right? Yeah, we've got China, they're talking about their cut rates, an unprecedented amount of stimulus. Economically, China is looking quite weak. And so that I think stimulus is looking supportive for Bitcoin prices. And then also other places, Europe cutting rates, Germany is really the sick man of Europe at the moment. And also, well, a little bit of a rate cut in Japan, obviously. But generally, it's not coordinated, but a lot of central banks are cutting rates now. And I think that will be broadly supported. If you look at global M2,

so money supply, M2 measure of money supply, and Bitcoin prices, there's not a bad correlation between the two. So loose and money supply is going to be good for Bitcoin prices. I mean, China unloaded the bazooka here and completely unexpectedly. I mean, I was reading articles that they're like hedge funds and traders aren't even closing shop because there's so much money flowing in that they're jumping on this opportunity.

I mean, this was pretty surprising how aggressively China came in. And China is very meaningful. Yeah, I mean, we've seen, I think, into exchanges, OTC, we've seen $75 billion of inflows. Crypto. That's specifically crypto from banned China. Yeah, exactly.

There's a lot more happening in China. There's a lot more mining going on in China than people believe. We're doing a bit of geospatial analysis at the moment, using AI to kind of highlight mining operations globally. And looking, you know, if you look at the aerial footprint of a miner, it has quite a unique kind of set of characteristics. Like they look like chicken sheds with chimneys and there's power cables nearby and things like that. And there's a lot of those kinds of things in China. And it's so highly likely there's a lot of those kind of things in china and it's so highly like there's a lot more

bitcoin mining than people believe yeah i mean we can also see that hash rate i don't know what the percentage is now but it's still a very meaningful percentage of the hash rates coming up about 16 what was that at peak it was over 50 right before uh the 2020 bands or in the 50 to 60% region? No, it never quite reached the majority. I mean, in the very early days, it was hard to tell. I mean, one person or one miner had 90% of the hash power. But since then, it's really become much more diversified in who's mining. And that's not changing, actually.

Despite some consolidation in the industry, that's not changing. And geograph Despite some consolidation in the industry, that's not changing. And geographically, I think China peaked at about 46%, 48% total hash power. So it never quite achieved that majority, which would be actually quite worrying. Yeah, it's funny because the biggest fear at the time was that China was going to control all mining. And then China went offline. And the biggest fear was that China wasn't going to have any mining. So that shows the schizophrenia of our community. And it was fear in both directions trying to thread the needle. But I think it's clear that right now

we have a lot more interest coming back in. This is obviously from you guys. I've reported a few times, but crypto investment products saw 1.2 billion of inflows last week, most in 10 weeks, seeing inflows for both Bitcoin ETFs and also Ethereum, right? BlackRock surpassed a billion dollars. And U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs extend inflows streak to eight days, logging 61.3 million on Monday. Now, listen, I know we have inflows. We have outflows. I think we've accepted at this point that it somewhat tracks the market. But I do think it's interesting for discussion as we're coming out of what was supposed to be a bad September, seeing prices generally rise and going into October that we're seeing this sort of renewed interest.

Yeah, I mean, I had a call from a journalist the other day saying, oh, the Bitcoin price has not really reacted. We've seen three weeks of inflows now, and it's close to $2 billion of inflows, and the Bitcoin price over that period is up roughly, I think, 10% or something. So that's pretty positive. I think we just need to take a bit of a step back here. This year, prior to this year, the best year for investors sort of piling money into Bitcoin was 2021, where we saw about, I think, about $10.6 billion worth of inflows. This year so far, we're at about $23.5 billion.

This is actually a really good year for Bitcoin. And year to date, performance is up over 50%. You know, we can't be complaining. There definitely is some link to flows. It's probably coincident. So they're not leading or giving much trading signals, I don't think. Yeah, I agree. But, yeah, it's definitely supporting prices.

And even Ethereum last week, you know, there is this prevailing kind of narrative in Ethereum is how they're going to dig themselves out of this L2 hole. You know, a lot of investors are concerned that the Denkun upgrade has led to a dramatic fall in revenues, and you need to see such dramatic rise in L2 usage to actually get back to the prior revenue streams. So people are quite concerned about that.

I think it's perhaps a little bit undue. But, you know, Ethereum still is looking pretty sick relative to Bitcoin from an investor sentiment perspective. I mean, even the launch this year has been pretty disappointing. We've seen about $2 billion worth of inflows, but we've seen so much outflows, about $1.7 billion from Grayscale. Yeah, it's a bit disappointing in that respect okay well listen that that gives a good segue to discuss ethereum because it seems like there's some renewed interest here ethereum gas fees rose 498 in two weeks as network activity surged so something is obviously happening there and i think as you kind of mentioned ethereum itself may not be doing spectacularly well but

i think that ethereum layer twos are starting to catch a bit and starting to get some really serious developer activity. You shared a few charts with me. I just want to bring them up because this should put things in perspective. And you're probably the only one who can unpack this for me. Talking about sort of developer activity in each ecosystem, you sent me three charts. What's this one telling us? Yeah. So we scrape the GitHub data. system you sent me three charts what's this one telling us yeah so um we we scraped the github

data we're slightly different to electric caps on how we categorize or how we identify an active developer so you've got a unique developer there so we say a dev has to have made at least 10 commits over the last three months so they're genuinely active within the community rather than just making your one or two. And that has a dramatic, makes a dramatic difference into the number of active devs. We spent ages doing this.

And also the history changes a little bit, which makes it quite tricky too, because suddenly base for instance has come online and that's part of the Ethereum ecosystem too. But just generally the theorem there, there's 3,500 unique devs there, down a little bit over the last 90 days, down 21%. That's a lot.

A bit more actually than the overall, minus 14%. We have seen a big decline actually overall for the market over the last couple of years in active devs. And a lot of this is to do with Ethereum, but other networks too. And I think a lot of this is to do with Ethereum, but other networks too. And I think a lot of those were shitcoin developers that have left. Yeah, I mean, look at it, 30 days, everybody's double digit negative. Yeah.

So slightly, you know, we have to be slightly careful how we interpret these. But to me, the most amazing one is, look at BASE. It has come from nowhere and now has nearly 3,000 depths um and it's a good way you know i do think like people do spend a lot of time comparing solana to ethereum but look at

the difference in active deaths it's so long yeah there's a there's 1100 yes yeah so there's a lot more potential i think for theorems a lot more potential, I think, for Ethereum. There's a lot more imaginative, active dev work theoretically going on in Ethereum than there is in Solana. And I think that puts it in a good place. Now you've got the top risers there. This was just, I think, an interesting thing. I've never heard of Harmony or Beefy Finance, to be honest. But there are these little ones that really do rise. To me, the most interesting one is we've slightly different way we measure active

devs here on base, by the way. But you see base is in the top one there. There's Moonbeam and Aptos and a few others. So I think it's just interesting to see what's going on. And overall, look, there's 81,000 active debts working on crypto at the moment. So that's really, really positive for the industry. And then you've got the top decliners. To me, the one that's really quite worrying is Polygon. I haven't actually spent too much time really trying to

understand why a lot of people are leaving the network. And there's been quite a decline in, which is really quite depressing, in Lightning. We've seen a big decline in active devs in the Lightning network. And you know- Wouldn't that just be because so much other stuff is being built on Bitcoin now though? I mean, there's so many Bitcoin. To me, like when I see something like this, Lightning makes sense because there's so many other layer two is being built on Bitcoin and there's probably a finite amount of developers. So maybe they're just going somewhere else. I would imagine these polygon people are going to base. Right. It's another layer, too, that's hotter. Right. So I would imagine it's more of

a reshuffling for better or for worse but maybe i'm wrong yeah i mean that the clue is if you look at the total there the total is only down 17 percent the network so i you know there's definitely kind of reshuffling there you know if you look uh across so electric caps do some great work on this really detailed work about different ecosystems or different coin different tokens and who works on what and who struggles the other. So all these different networks, they have devs that work on quite a few different ones. And the overall, yeah, I think a lot of these devs are just switching to different networks

at times. But, you know, for me, Lightning is disappointing in that it was one of the top potential payment rails for Bitcoin, and it's not really taken off. None of them have yet. And like me, it's had first mover advantage for a very long time. I mean, they were the only gig in town on Bitcoin for years. Really. I mean, just generally, if you go to the first chart,

if you look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin doesn't really – Bitcoin DEVs, there's about 1,100 Bitcoin DEVs. It doesn't really. Bitcoin devs is about 1100 Bitcoin devs, it doesn't really move much. That's what I'm saying. I don't think that many devs come to Bitcoin. So if they're getting spread around, yeah, the Bitcoin core group is pretty stable, compared to say Ethereum. But yeah, lightning's a bit disappointing. But perhaps there is some jumping ship to other payment round that works.

But I mean, I don't think it's written as bitcoins existence. I think a lot of people accepting Bitcoin, the primary reason for owning it is transferring transferring a very large sums, it has a low transaction speed. So what his acts well as a as a store of value. And that's why it's so closely linked to monetary policy and fed action so coming into this sort of election season and fed cuts and chinese stimulus and even mentioned kind of the escalating war in israel netanyahu actually had some pretty interesting comments about gold and silver and such, right? Maybe that's worth discussing.

Yeah. I mean, they have said they want to restrict precious metals like gold and silver and coins to combat illegal activities. I think this just goes to remind you, gold is a kind of sovereign asset, but you can control the flow of it. Bitcoin is a non-sovereign asset. And I do think when you hear headlines like this, and we heard similar sort of from Russia, I mean, I'm not comparing the two at all, very different scenario, but when governments do, they try to control the flow of assets and money, et cetera.

People do tend to sort of switch to something like Bitcoin. I mean, Canada is a really good example with the truckers in 2021 when Trudeau banned their bank accounts. they went straight to Bitcoin and started using that. So I think that geopolitical instability actually tends to be quite good for Bitcoin and in a very socially positive way too. Yeah, I agree. I have to ask you about this because I mentioned the election and now we have to talk about Trump's crypto venture. Begin signups while business purpose remains unclear. DeFi platform is now open to accredited US investors. Lucky me. Users can connect crypto wallets to the project's website. You can see the website here where you can be defiant and do your KYC verification.

Uh, what do we think of Trump launching a defy platform just weeks before the election? Yeah. I mean, we, so we looked into this, um, Trump is, I've forgotten the name of the old protocol. Doe. Sorry. I believe it was Doe. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's it.

So the devs from Doe are now the devs on Trump's project. And they have credibility concerns. I think it's genuinely a credibility issue for Trump. That Doe was hacked. And I'm guessing it's a very similar network design so the risk is that Trump's coin

gets hacked too and that could create huge credibility issues for Trump coming into the election it's not like he's created he's put together an amazing team of devs with really credible backgrounds to pull this all together it seems a bit slapdash and i do wonder sometimes generally how deeply he's involved

and what he really understands and risks here um but yeah it could be damage his fight if say it gets hacked what's the upside listen so listen i like like nonpolitical once again, but I've even seen like Nick Carter, for example, who is a huge Trump supporter, very skeptical and worried about this and saying this is poor timing. We should be concerned. There's very little upside. The downside is immense. Why would he do this right now? I mean, is it because they need money? You know, or he believes his sons who are passionate about this.

I mean, like you said, I mean, you're talking about the president of the United States using a bunch of developer hacks to create a platform out of something that was literally just hacked. Yeah, it really worries me

for his campaign. What else can you say? I mean, I've had a few journalists get on top of it and are concerned with similar about similar sort of issues. Yeah, I think on the plus side of Trump, I am probably, although I don't vote, pro his, the Republicans,

partly because it would be much more supportive of Bitcoin in that respect. I mean, Cynthia Lummis and her comments about Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve asset, that's theoretically bigger than I think the Bitcoin ETF. I mean, the largest treasury in the world decides to have Bitcoin on balance sheet. That is just unreal. Every central bank would have to follow. Every central bank would be forced to follow. I mean, that's when we go from cool, micro strategy is dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin to cool every central bank in the world is fighting to rush into Bitcoin

and get it on the balance sheet. It's the biggest thing that could ever happen. Yeah, it is absolutely massive. And I genuinely believe she will push that bill through. And it's trillions of dollars. I think it would be, they want to own 5% Bitcoin, which is more than MicroStrategy. I think, how much is MicroStrategy owning?

About 2% or something like that. Yeah, he's about to, and he's about to, actually an article on this, he's about to surpass Grayscale with his next purchase, which is pretty wild. And you have MetaPlanet

buying it in Japan. They bought another 100%. Very small, but still nice to see it being followed that playbook. There's an interesting thing. I just switched out from Trump to Metaplanet. We've got Cathedral now, which is a kind of miner,

but also has Bitcoin on balance sheet. Obviously, we've got MicroStrategy. They call it the Bitcoin yield. It's not a dividend yield. It's what percentage of Bitcoin makes up your shares, your number of shares. And that is an interesting theme. We agonize over this one about whether or not we should short microstrategy because it has a massive premium over the Bitcoin price.

It does. It's free money. And sometimes it feels like it's a bit of a no-brainer that premium is going to collapse. But we've come to the conclusion, actually, it won't collapse until, say, it starts selling, until this Bitcoin yield starts falling. And at the moment, this Bitcoin yield is consistently rising. Same with MetaPlanet, and I don't know exactly what Cathedral will do. But I do think there's an increasing number of companies that are looking at this. I don't know whether they'll call it Bitcoin yield or something like that, but until solar cells, that premium is going

to stay very elevated. Also, I mean, we literally saw, I mean, arguably crashed the price of Bitcoin, but months ago we saw what happened when Wall Street tried to pile in short micro strategy for that very reason. Those shorts got squeezed. Unfortunately, a part of that trade was to cover those shorts, they had to sell the underlying Bitcoin that they had bought. You're talking about billions of dollars in that when you dig into what those hedge funds did, they effectively were selling Bitcoin down massively, about $10,000 at the time, I think, because they were getting wrecked by MicroStrategy squeezing up. So even if it makes sense from a fundamental perspective,

you still have to be concerned with what the traders are doing and how many people are on that side of the trade with you. I'm serious. There is a limit. Because Bitcoin doesn't provide any kind of income, he can't just have his company end up being 100% Bitcoin because he needs a revenue stream to support the staff and he has that but it's relatively small compared to the overall market cap of the business so his p priced earnings is pretty high um but yeah if he can't go on forever buying at some point he's got to stop don't tell but yeah i mean the way where it stands at the moment i think it's got a lot more room potentially to buy so it's gonna own more i mean should have owned more than gbtc to me that is

pretty crazy all right james i've used up all your time thanks so much as always for joining and for your insight guys follow james it's down in the description on x and we'll see you soon. See you, Scott. All right. Michael Shatner. Look at this guy, man. Look at him. So serious. Did you fade this guy? You want to counter trade this guy? He's going to own more Bitcoin than GBTC.

I mean, it is absolutely unbelievable when you think about the scale of that. I mean, it's crazy, Andrew, this dude, this guy. First of all, before we get into micro strategy, I just wish I had a British accent. Okay. I mean, how much smarter do you sound when you have a British accent? It's just, you know, it's put another ship on the bobby yeah yeah no dumb and dumber guys so um you know what i find interesting about sailor um in the moment here is that he he's

he's mentioned the word yield a couple of times right right? Just, you know, kind of carefully, strategically, quietly, he's not shouting it from the mountaintops, but he is, he has mentioned the word yield associated with Bitcoin. And so I find it interesting that, that, you know, we've got, we've got huge institutional adoption. You know, we said for years and years and years, institutions are coming, institutions are coming, and institutions are here in droves when it comes to Bitcoin. BlackRock, Fidelity, Bank of New York, Mellon, State Street, Goldman are on their way. You know, the idea of yield with Bitcoin

and Saylor being somebody that's mentioned it, there's got to be something behind that. And here's my theory. So, you know, somebody is loaning money to Saylor to be able to purchase the amounts of Bitcoin that he's, you know, purchasing it whenever he makes an announcement. It's, you know, we've taken out such and such, you know, at whatever percentage and we're buying Bitcoin with it. So my guess is, is that those same banks are thinking, OK, we're making a little money on this particular trade associated with, you know, loaning money to Saylor to buy Bitcoin. We want to make more money on it. And my guess is, is that these huge banks, and I don't know which ones they are. But I guess that they're having conversations with Saylor and saying, Hey, there's got to be a,

an additional way for us to do business with you. There's got to be an additional way for us to do business with you. You know, the first time I had him on the podcast, which was within a month of him buying Bitcoin for the first time, he gave a long winded diatribe on how Bitcoin is pristine collateral and how one day it would be the best possible thing to take a loan against because it could be custodied by the bank that is giving you the loan, easily liquidated, 24-7, 365. He literally said, good luck taking my yacht that's floating on the other side of the world that you've also allowed me to use for collateral. Wouldn't you rather have Bitcoin in the bank and just handle it that way? So the things that billionaires can get loans on, this is arguably the least risky.

I understand the downside and all of that architecture is being built right now or or is is is is really in place and will grow in terms of being in place so the custody part of it at big banks is going to grow beyond bny melon um and beyond BNY Mellon and the opportunity to host and custody Bitcoin. And then what is Wall Street the best at? Leverage and lending, leverage and lending, leverage and lending. They will find ways to create new products and new opportunities to make money that we haven't thought of yet. No matter what happens to the industry, there's always adjustments and changes in ways that they're going to make money. And so as Bitcoin is an asset that is more and more a part of people's portfolios or people's asset base, there will be a way to leverage and lend against

it. Now, you know, you talk to Caitlin Long, never leverage or lend your Bitcoin because that's not a great idea, but people are going to do it. Banks are going to encourage it in the long term. You're going to have options. Better with BNY Million than Celsius, though. You know what I mean? Yeah, very different. Very different institutions slash organizations. And so, yeah, it's it's going to happen. And so, you know, when we talk about there, there's been so many tropes, so to speak, in this space for a long time.

You talk about adoption, adoption, adoption, adoption. Well, ownership is adoption. Right. And so as more and more folks are owning Bitcoin in, you know, at scale, this is this is coming. You know, it's going to be here. The ability to lend against your Bitcoin is going to happen. It's just absolutely is going to happen. It just absolutely is going to happen. Yeah, I mean, there they are. Right. So so BlackRock talking about, you know, spending time with their biggest clients and who are who are BlackRock's biggest clients, hedge funds, family offices, nation states, pensions, all the people in that room that are wearing suits, and most of them without ties, mind you, those are people that are managing billions and billions of dollars, and sizable portions of that are with BlackRock. And then what is BlackRock doing over the last three weeks? They're putting out two different versions of research associated with, you should own Bitcoin because it's an uncorrelated asset. And if bad things happen in the world- It's risk off. Yeah. They called it risk off, even though it's risky, right? Think about that nuance.

Yes, it's risky in the traditional sense, but it's risk off. And then, you know, these are the people that they're talking to about it. So that being said, if you're wondering, you know, what does the architecture look like over the next 12, 18, 24 months associated with Bitcoin becoming more and more of a largest asset in traditional finance? There's your there's your proof. It is. It is just going to grow and grow and grow. And yeah, it's it's something. So me, I'm looking at how do we connect the dots between BlackRock's risk off asset language and Saylor's position and the word yield, yeah, I think we're headed in a particular spot where you're going to be able to- There's zero question that we're not financializing everything Bitcoin once institutions adopt it. Options were just approved. We've already talked about that, but we know exactly what's coming. It's not a hard roadmap. If you've seen it on

other assets, it's going to exist on this now that we have ETFs. It just is. Yeah, it is. And options give banks and these global institutions arbitrage opportunities. So yeah, it's going to turn into, to be fair, short and medium term, this will only mean good things for price. This is massive, massive amounts of liquidity in ways that we have not seen. This is very, very different than the ways that we used to talk about Bitcoin and how much sits on Binance or Coinbase and movements of wallets. This is very, very different than that. People should pay very close attention to not only micro strategies, you know, you mentioned micro strategies position versus GBTC.

Well, we'll look at BlackRock's position versus Satoshi, right? I mean, we're, we're, yeah, we're, we're, we're getting very close there. So leave some for us guys. Yeah, exactly. So, um, yeah, we're, we're getting there and then, you know, short term, right? So we're in October. So October 1st, uh, talking about, um, you know, what is, why, why does October exist not only for Bitcoin and digital assets, but just markets at large? Well, it's rebalancing that happens in portfolios that are managed on a quarterly basis, right? So if you're

behind as a hedge fund or as a traditional asset manager, you're playing catch up in the fourth quarter. So if in Q2 and Q3, your numbers are not where they're supposed to be, your investors are going to ask questions. Well, when they come to ask questions, the way that you handle that is, well, wait a minute. No, I took a position in that one that was up a lot so far this year. So we're allocated. We're good. We're covered there. That's the way that you answer that question. So the reason why, again, institutions will ape into particular assets in the fourth quarter is playing catch up with their peers. Right. So my guess is you're going to see significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs here in the fourth quarter. Significant. It may be their best quarter.

And it will continue to just be best quarters moving forward. But yeah, come online. It's just going to become more normalized and it's just going to get allocated to so i but there's going to be a surge i think there's going to be a surge in in q4 and in october in particular because um you know things in the last half of november begin to wind down the holidays all that stuff uh but in october things are very very robust oftentimes it's the biggest um volume based uh uh spot in the markets um for the year october is yeah yeah i mean it is what it is i showed the chart earlier with all the gains it's pretty astounding speaking of all the gains that are pretty astounding you're gonna like that yeah Let's do it. ArchPublic in August and September, our concierge program clients are experiencing incredible value. 30% via ES and NQ

strategies, 22.6% via MES and MNQ strategies, 3.11 profit factor. Join us at thearchpublic.com. Guy, we tell you about it every week and it just keeps printing money it does it's our concierge program for people you know we let people in and get a taste with gateway for 99 bucks a month but we have so many people that upgrade to our concierge program and it has just been absolutely crushing you know august and september if you're trading some of our larger symbols, ES and NQ, you're up 30%. Our smaller symbols, so if you have a 50 to 100 grand, 150 grand, you trade the smaller contracts, still 22 plus. Just astounding numbers. And for us, what matters most behind those numbers? Yeah, it's great that we're talking about 30 percent over two months, 15 percent, you know, on a month by month basis, outperforming even our expectations. The bottom line is, is that when we have down ticks and when we have losing trades, those losing trades are managed by stop loss protection.

That's what really fuels, you know, the performance for our products is the fact that, you know, when our products do take losses, and they do, it's not just a straight up parabola every month, there's protection there. And so you're cut off under the 2% level. So the next trade that gets taken, you're making it back and then some. And so for us, yeah, these numbers are awesome. And they're the real deal. So yeah, there's our ES trades over the past couple of months, I think a few months. The bottom line is look at the negative numbers. The negative numbers are very, very muted. You're talking about 1.9, 1.4, 1.3.

Those muted numbers are on purpose. They are on purpose. Our algos are coded in a way to cut off your losses before they hit the 2% number so that when the next trades hit, you know, you're booking profits above whatever that small loss was. So, you know, people really, really love what we do and how we do it. They bought in and they believe. And I will say this, we have hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of customers, both externally and internally. We have no complaints, which even to us is a pretty remarkable thing internally. We talk about it. We say, guys, not only do our products perform better than what we talk about because we under-promise and over-deliver, but the way that we service people, the way that we get to people quickly,

there are no complaints. That is hard to do, man. That is really hard to do when you have hundreds and hundreds of customers, but it goes to the quality of what we do. And then your stuff has to work. Your stuff has to perform for people to be. We would just be hearing about it every damn day. Right, exactly right. Yeah, you would hear about it. Really quick. Yeah, I would be hearing about it every day.

No, I'd never hear about it. I'd never hear about it. All I hear is good things, which is, it's absolutely rare. Wait, what happens if we like go into like a blazing depression stock market crash? It just sits out or finds shorts, right? Yeah, that's correct.

So long and short, all of our algos can go long or short, and they're very, very strategic about how they get into trades. So our algos are only in the market. Say there's 100% of time in the market in a 30-day period. Our algos are in the market about 3% to 5%. So they find the right data and the right time to enter. They extract a percentage and they're out, right? So 80% of our algos are intraday only. So you're taking a trade anywhere from three to 30 or 90 minutes, and then you're

done. So you're in cash again. Liquidity, risk mitigation, and then performance, those are the principles of our work. It's pretty unbelievable. I mean, just absolutely crushing. Let's do it. The concierge program you showed, obviously, it's down here. Maybe talk about it a bit more. Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's a it's a very, very liquid alternative asset is what it is. So you're getting alternative asset levels of return. So hedge fund like returns, but you're you're you're you're liquid on a day to day basis. So you have access to your capital 24 seven. That's very, very different than all other alternative assets. If you're in a private equity fund or if you're in a hedge fund of some sort, your money is locked up for two to three years.

And then when that lockup is done, you say, I want to, you know, I want a third of my money back so I can go make a purchase. You have to wait to the end of that quarter for them to send it to you. That is not what we do here. We give you alternative asset returns. We give you extraordinary risk mitigation, but at the same time, you have access to your account with your name on it. And at a push of a button,

you can have whatever money you want out of your account. So highly liquid alternative asset with the returns that we just showed um with the returns you know in the past couple months have been phenomenal people just really really trust the fact that okay i've been in the program for a month or two or three or four maybe they're just trading the gateway and trading 10 grand and they just they just take all of our claims and they verify all of them and then they say all right if I'm trading 10 grand and I just made 18% over the last couple of months, well, if I had 100 grand, I also would have made 18%. So they push some more chips in and they get into our concierge program.

Yeah, makes perfect sense. Any final thoughts? Anything else I might have missed before I let you go? Market's kind of dumping a little bit today. I like that. October is a real thing. We're going to see, you know, Bitcoin drift higher, the markets drift higher. Q4, there's going to be a lot, a lot of bluster associated with the election, but all that bluster is going to be, we're going to find ways to make you more money. And part of that is the stock market. And then I also think that, you know, we're looking at another rate cut come early November. Just, you know, there's a lot of open road ahead of us from a market standpoint. I love that. Well, guys, obviously check out thearchpublic.com right there.

Thearchpublic.com. That's right. You might even get to talk to Andrew personally. You might. I pop in when people make concierge demos. I have been known to be on those demos and people are like, whoa, I didn't expect you to be here.

Well, here I am. All right, man. And also follow him on AP underscore abacus on X. And that's all we got for you today. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you to James. See you guys on Spaces. Later.

Later.