The Wolf Of All Streets - ETF Chaos - Full Analysis And Breakdown | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: January 9, 2024

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All right, Scott, I'm going to, the mic is yours. Tell us the craziness that's happening. I need two minutes to go up in my apartment and the team is getting the panel ready. Because it's like giving us a brief overview. We've got William here as well. Michael, if you could jump up. Yeah, so insane that we couldn't even get

into our own Twitter account to host this. Absolutely insanity. So obviously, if anyone who missed it, I'm going to go find the tweet. Sorry, as we're going here, obviously, this is happening in real time. From the United States Securities and Exchange Commission at SECGov, the official account. changes. The approved Bitcoin ETFs will be subject to ongoing surveillance and compliance measures to ensure continued investor protection. That with an image of Gary Gensler's face saying today's approval enhances market transparency and provides investors with efficient access to digital asset investments within regulated frameworks. So obviously, everybody absolutely freaked out. All the pundits and experts went on television, CNBC, headlines, Fox Business, literally everywhere. Our favorite Bloomberg analyst saying, hey, it must be real.

It's coming from the official SEC Gov account. A few minutes later, from Gary Gensler's account, the SEC Gov Twitter account was compromised and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot Bitcoin exchange traded products. What a show. I mean, but does it get any better than this really? Or any worse? I don't know. I don't even know which one to, to, to qualify as. We're adding all the speakers here. Amazing. That we can spin up a space.

It gets such amazing guests. We got Simon, William, Dan, Bruce. I think all you guys are up here. I mean, this is the most crypto thing that's ever happened in the history of crypto things, right? I mean. You know what would be interesting? Is there a way to corroborate

the fact that their account was compromised by checking with Twitter, with X themselves. I don't know if you have any contacts there. That would be telling because otherwise it's possible that that thing was maybe in draft. And, you know, it happens. It's possible. It definitely didn't hit their website.

So I would say that it's possible. But, I mean, when you see the volatility of what happened, we had a 15 minute Bitcoin candle for anyone who's paying attention that went up to 47,901 and bottomed at 44,700, the $3,200 spread to absolutely just destroy anyone using leverage on either side. So which is what we discussed this morning, although this is a fake approval. But man, I'm slightly in disbelief. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

It's embarrassing, but also hilarious. And like I said, just kind of the most crypto thing ever. Dan, what's your take on this? I haven't spoken in a while. You know, crypto never disappoints. It's an endless series of incredibly bizarre, weird circumstances from BitBoy, you know, filming himself getting arrested to the SEC account getting hacked. So honestly, it's, it's been 11 years in this space. And every single time it's surprising or Mark Carpello sitting on a blue bouncy ball for his interview to represent the Bitcoin ecosystem. You know,

there's always something new and different. I mean, it's really bizarre, though. I think that they didn't have a better handle over their account access and permissioning. I mean, this is a very mission critical account that is, you know, looked at quite often to represent the, you know, I would say safety and security of the U.S. financial system. Like the fact that they didn't have better access and permissioning. For example, at Kraken, I ran the marketing team at Kraken. We had very strict permissioning and set of controls over who could access the Kraken Twitter account because of these reasons.

If someone tweeted out, Kraken is listing X token, that could cause the price to go up and someone could profit off that. So we were very, very locked down with access. So it's very surprising to see this from the SEC. Yeah, absolutely agree. Michael, go ahead. Yeah, just a quick note on whether or not this was actually a hack or a pinned tweet, or I mean, a draft that was released. The SEC is already tweeting that from that same account that was supposedly hacked, that the account was hacked.

And what I'm trying to point out here is I've never seen an account hacked and recovered in such a short period of time. So that kind of begs the question for me, was it really hacked or an accidental post? Certainly, it would be the fastest unhacked or re-recovered account I have ever seen on this platform. That's a really good point. It is the SEC, though. I tell you what, the image, it doesn't sound like a quote that relates to the Bitcoin ETF. It's like a really weird quote. So I doubt that that was something they officially would say when launched.

But yeah, you've got a really good point. Like normally when you get hacked, you're there for like a day trying to contact Twitter and figure out exactly, sorry, X, trying to figure out what to do. I would just like to point out how incredibly effective the SEC continues to be at protecting us. I feel very protected when they can't even protect their own ex-account. This is an absolute joke. I'm not sure if Elon wouldn't do it.

He'd let it hang around for a while just for a joke. That's his game. I'm not sure if you can hear Yago. Scott, you were speaking earlier. Yago, I'll give you the mic, but I also want to ask a question about the market's reaction. I think, Scott,

as soon as I was heading home and you tell me, when we first thought the news was true, you're saying Bitcoin is dumping and we're giggling about it. Then obviously it just recovered, you told me,

within a 15-minute candle. Does that essentially just kind of confirm that the market will dump once the ETF is approved? Not really, because the timing's tough. The first, what I'm looking at, I'm just looking at the 15 minute.

I don't really have the timestamp, but at, you know, I would say an hour ago when the first news, around when the first news came out, it basically moved from 46,000 up to 47,900. The question is, A, who, listen, somebody didn't just post that tweet as a joke. They traded around it, I would assume, right? So that there's some manipulation there, I presume. That's a big risk to take if you're not going to make money on it. So it did go from roughly, you know, 46.6 up to almost 48. And then maybe it's when it was announced or within a few minutes of that

happening, it dropped all the way to 44.7. So I'm not sure if somebody was manipulating the market around the fact that they knew that this was a fake tweet. It's hard to tell. I don't know that, I guess there's a long way of saying, I'm not sure that we can extrapolate directly what we think is going to happen on the approval just from this, because clearly somebody knew this was fake and was trading around it. I mean,

is there anyone who has a different take on that? I would love to hear it. But I think... I don't get your explanation. Maybe because I wasn't focused. I'm saying I think it went up initially on the SEC tweet, I think. So it went up

big candle to the upside over you know about 1200 and then it dumped so i don't know if it dumped before it was the announcement of the fake news i'll have to like dig into like a one minute chart or something yeah i'd wanna i'd wanna know when so i want to know what the price did and not sure if anyone's done this gareth is you know it's ever been a time you gotta cut up it's now but if anyone's gone through the shop um what happened prior to to the to the to the you know to the truth coming out to gensler posting the correction and what so what happened before that what happened afterwards because i think is it fair to say scott that whatever the price action was before gensler made made the correction is how the market

should react once if and when the ETF- Perhaps, but if somebody literally did this in an effort to make money trading, there was probably a price they would have been looking for to the upside before they dumped it hard to make a profit. So I just think it's hard to take a guess when this is a natural price action surrounding what would happen. I mean, remember, we had like some sort of announcement or fake tweet in the past where price went up massively and we said, hey, that's what's going to happen when it gets approved. We just saw it. I don't think we ever get that clear window into into the future. Yeah, I was just going to say, funny enough, Scott, I'm sure you remember a couple months back, essentially the same thing happened with a fake great point bruce you gotta love the sec account tweeting something fake i mean this this is like he i'm you need to go pound like five

red bulls and give us a quick rant the uh you know tyrants gonna tie rent i mean this is why they're incompetent this is why they're incompetent can get anybody in here i mean i have a dog i love my dog if you have a dog or a pet and the government said hey we have a new pet care plan to take care of your pet would anybody honestly trust the government to do that the answer is no none of us would they're not competent they can't do anything if they did if they could they'd go build something instead of being do you think this was an accidental tweet? Because it makes a big difference. Was it a hack or an accidental tweet in your opinion?

It doesn't matter. It's their fault. They're clowns. They either didn't control their account or they had some rogue employee do something goofy or they jumped it. It didn't look quite real. If you look at it close, the picture, you know, Gary likes to have really good pictures of himself. It's not a great picture um you know the the the little uh graphic with it doesn't look quite slick enough but either way it's their fault and you know what there's a double standard because if any investment firm

did this can you imagine if uh black rock accidentally made a tweet saying hey it's live it's approved oh sorry our company absolutely would hacked. They would come down on them, and there's cases of this. They would come down on them like a ton of bricks. There's been advisors who've lost their careers because they lost their laptop on a subway, and they violated the, you know, okay, my client information was on the laptop even though it was encrypted. I lost it. Okay, yeah, you lose your license. I mean, they come down on people like you wouldn't believe. They don't take this kind of excuse like, oh, sorry, our account was compromised. I have an account. I have an account with our broker dealer that is

subject to their review. What do you think would happen if we tweeted something like this? We would be in major, major, major trouble. And if we said it was compromised, they wouldn't just take that. They would, at the very least, they'd haul us in there under threat of arrest. You know, you can't say no when the SEC or any other regulators come and ask you. They would haul us in and they would demand, we would be on immediate calls with lawyers and stuff, Zooms, and they would grill us and they'd want to know exactly what happened. And then immediately lawyers would send a big fat list. We want to know everybody who had access to this. Anybody who's ever had it for current employees, former employees, what method procedures and such and

such do you use to access this? Please provide all IP addresses and all emails of any employee you've had in the last five years on and on. They would bury us in stuff. And they'd go through every single thing, maybe even send a person physically to our office to dig into this, to find out. And you better believe, best case, they'd come out of this with some kind of sanction for us. And they'd say, you know, you are required to have additional supervisory procedures and a registered principal has to approve, you know, who has access to the domain and, you know, whatever. It's a double standard.

You know, they're just, they're not competent, but they burden everybody. And I'm not just complaining about if you make a mistake and they burden you. They burden everybody all the time, all day long. They make everybody in our industry run through, jump through hoops and pay for lawyers and all of this stuff for this vague, opaque stuff. And it's a bunch of people, it's the makers and the takers. It's a bunch of people who can't build anything sitting there slowing everything down, gumming up the works and stealing everybody's money.

It's absurd. This is just perfect. But Mikko, before we go to William, just on the first point that Bruce made, is that the tweet just doesn't look quite right to be an accidental tweet. Do you agree? Like the image is not perfect, et cetera.

Mikko, call you there. I just quickly looked at the original tweet. I thought the wording in it was strange from the start. But then again, you never really know who's writing the tweets anyway. I thought it was weird how quickly they were able to restore the account because obviously, if the person had the sophistication to get into a government account, I wouldn't think you'd be able to be restored just like that. And they would instantly be able to write that the tweet was fake. So I think there's some confusion around it, but I think the point stands and it doesn't really matter either way. It's not approved.

And now the SEC, and I think the more important conversation is what happens tomorrow when the ETF really was supposed to be approved. Does this cause delay or does the SEC have to kind of look like a fool and say tonight it wasn't approved, but tomorrow it is approved? The whole situation is going to be extremely interesting. And quickly, Mario, I see Derek in the audience. I don't know if you guys can speak. I see Ryan from Bitwise. You guys have invites in your, but if you don't see them, request if you guys would like to come up, because I'd love to hear both your perspectives. Go ahead, Mario. No, man, I'm taking care of getting the Crypto Town Hall account, but I said, can you show us proof that it was compromised because the community is not believing it? Trust but verify. So I'm not sure if we'll get an answer. But I think they should show us proof because there's lots of skepticism around that. Number two, if this thing was supposed to go through a vote for the 19B tomorrow, how could they prepare a text?

Suppose it gets approved tomorrow. We all thought that there was going to be a vote. So this means that those votes are fixed if they prepare the draft the day before. So that's what I'm thinking now. I think they just wanted to test to see whether or not... Yeah, I mean, there's a very wide consensus that this is a done deal. Yeah, I'm not thinking he... Yeah, go ahead before we go back to Scott.

What I wanted to say wasn't nearly important enough to interrupt Scott. Ah, well, there you go. Scott, it is, everything's important. And we got Gareth up. I'll give you the mic, but Gareth is up as well, by the way. Was Yago speaking? Because you were right. No, he's done speaking. He had nothing important to say, literally.

That's what he said. I'm just messing with you. I still didn't hear him say it, so that's sad. Gareth is up, though. Let me ask a question again. Gareth, did you look at the candle, the price action? Can we come to any conclusion from the price action from the fake news? Yeah, I mean, initially you saw the initial spike, but it wasn't, you know, to be honest, I was surprised.

At first I thought it was approved just like everyone else. And I was like, wow, that's all it's going to get on approval. And then it reversed so quickly that, you know, it was somewhat shocking. So the question is, again, was it a pre-scheduled release of a tweet or whatnot? I don't know. But certainly the price action was not what you'd expect. And what's more interesting now is that we're actually seeing more significant sell-off back to $45,500 on Bitcoin, even though, again, you would still assume that these would be

approved by tomorrow. And again, this is just more, I don't know, egg on the face. I don't even know. It's disappointing. It's just, you know, this is the last thing. Of our community or of the SEC? I think the SEC mainly. I mean, I think that it's just a situation where, like, what type of security do these people have on their Twitter accounts?

Like, they don't use two-factor authentication. I mean, I don't know, you know, or was it a pre pre done tweet that was supposed to go out tomorrow and it went out early? I honestly don't know. I guess we'll find out more in the coming hours though. I could, I can say my piece real quick, Scott. Like it's, you know, you saw the move up. And I think the reason we didn't see a bigger move up is that the insiders are

there and they know that that was not real, the real move. You know, we, when he tweeted, it was, you know, it was, we were already down to 46.5. I think it's like, you know, the bigger story here is same thing as matrix port, same thing as this, anyone can get hacked at any time, right? Like this was most likely a third party integration hack, which means that they didn't actually have the ability to get into the Twitter account, they probably, you know, the SEC probably had some sort of integration with like a calendly or Google or some sort of other integration that just allowed someone to

post something, right. But the big story here is just how long do we wait, look what happened with matrix port, right? Like they're leaving open these vectors for attack on themselves to market manipulation. Matrixport was not a hack, right? This was just someone that put something else out there that had some authority and they're just leaving market manipulation open. They're not protecting investors, right? All because of what? What are we waiting for? It's a simple Bitcoin spot ETF that we've been talking about for years that people have been filed for years. So it's just like just get it over with. They're leaving so much room and so much so many vectors for attack that that's why this stuff is happening.

Thank you, Dan. You're welcome, Joe. So, Gaurav, I wanted to go to you as well. You I don't know how much I could say on here. I'll just ask you the question directly, and I won't say what we discussed behind the scenes. What is your ETF trade? What do you make of the news today? And can we learn anything from the price action that we saw beyond that?

Short-term traders are just emotional as hell. Gaurav, are you there? He just wants to talk about your biohacking chamber, Sana. Yeah. Do you think that would have... So Gaurav, I want to go back to you and ask you a question. Do you think that could have any impact on the market's reaction when the real news drops, assuming it does drop tomorrow?

Yeah, I mean, I think the first thing is people are going to double and triple and quadruple check to make sure it's actually legitimate first. So the reaction may actually be a little slower. I think everyone here was just, you know, we all expected it. We were waiting on the edge of our seats when it came. We didn't question it initially. Oh, well, we knew this news was going to come. The next time it hits, you know, it probably takes a few minutes to kind of sink in and people confirm that it's real news. But the bigger it hits, it probably takes a few minutes to kind of sink in and people confirm that it's real news. But the bigger question is, where does price go? Certainly, today doesn't give us much insight into that. I wouldn't say that we can say it's not going to

rally at this point. It still could, since this is now fake news. But yeah, I'm looking at it and I'm mystified, man. Can you tell us, Gareth, can you tell us again what the price did when the news came out? Yeah. And so I think Scott said it spiked up by about $1,200. Yeah, it was trading at $46,725 going into that and then spiked up to about $48,000, then quickly reversed back down to $44,700 or so, and it settled in around 45,500. So it was a lot of whipsaw. I mean, what's more interesting here is that it's not like we're back to where we were trading prior to the news. We're actually down about $1,000. So what that tells us is two

things. One is people are saying, okay, well, the SEC is saying this wasn't an authorized tweet that these aren't approved. And so people are saying, wait a minute, does that mean, the SEC is saying it's not approved. This wasn't an authorized tweet that these aren't approved. And so people are saying, wait a minute, does that mean that the SEC potentially might not approve them? Which I still think it will get approved. But I mean, I think that's creeping into people's psyche. And then the other side of it too could just be, people are exhausted by this, man.

I mean, I said in my trading floor here, I was like, when it hit, I'm like, thank God it got approved. And they're like, let's just move on. And we've been talking about this for how long just to get a spot ETF. I just want to move on. And I think people are almost dead to this news at this point. I have a different argument to make. I feel like this is all hyping it up further. The feeling that I got, and I'm actually curious to get what Scott and others think, but the feeling I got when this happened, it i knew it's gonna happen i shouldn't be

surprised but it feels like the biggest thing that's ever happened in crypto like the biggest news since the since probably ftx collapsed um you mean the actual approval or the fact that the feeling news from this no no no no no the feeling that so i'm talking about before knowing it's fake news and the feeling that i got that this is i feel like everything that's happened including the coin desk a false tweet um a few months back telegraph yeah coin telegraph and and although the you know the the constant discussion going back and you're going repeating the same back and forth about what will happen to the price whether whether the ETF is going to be approved or not, how many will be approved, the fee war, etc. Even though we've discussed it at length, even though we know it's inevitable,

we said this earlier today, it's inevitable. I still feel like the reaction is only going to be more extreme. And this only adds to the hype, just showing how big of a deal. You look at the numbers that we have now everyone knows it's fake news that there's you know 14 000 people listening um can i remember me and you scott were like is it worth doing everyone knows it's fake news that we knew there's just so much emotion behind it we to be fair we were about to yeah we wanted to start the spaces when we thought it was real and as we were getting ready we found out it was fake you know

that's how fast it happened. I mean, it's absolutely astounding. I agree with you. I think that this just shows how much pent up sort of passion and aggression there is for and just thirst for this news to happen. Man, yeah, this is tough. I'm seeing a bunch of stuff in the background. So I'm trying to read all the tweets and updates while we're what are you reading so far how's the reaction well brad garlinghouse had an amazing tweet he said days like this remind me that the sec

should be investigating itself for multiple things and crypto twitter remains undefeated in memes uh what are we what else we got uh have you seen the bitboy conspiracy no but i hope i that i don't because my eyes are yeah for his tweet yesterday i just jumped today i'm gonna attempt i'll just jump in real quick i'm sorry i was just gonna jump in real quick and just say you know this this is the same body that's supposed to be protecting investors from this exact thing that sued leon musk for something you know went after mark cuban like i mean you know how many people do they go after for posting things on twitter that is false and here they are i mean it's just it's pathetic honestly

oh i can see a whole bunch of tweets being shared in the group um why is why is this bit boy there um let me let me open them up you read br Brad Garlinghouse. You read Charles as well. Oh, there it is, Charles. I'm trying to keep up while also giving my kid a snack. I've tagged you in the breaking news crypto group. Let me read that here. Charles says the following. Let me read it out.

The BTC ETF announcement hack would have violated new SEC rules adopted in July that require high level of cybersecurity risk management, according to a securities lawyer. So that's a tweet by Charles. It kind of makes your point, Simon. Michael Saylor has tweeted about this as well. Hold on. Let me see what the team sent through. I don't know. He's beat 155. He did. Bitcoin will be the only thing ever approved twice by the SEC. That came in from Michael Saylor about 10 minutes ago. Tyler Winklevoss, everyone's got an opinion on this. David Forrest, the CTO of Ripple, just put out a great tweet. It's a tweet from the SEC that says, careful what you read on the internet. The best source of information about the SEC is always the SEC.

And then he has, obviously, the post of the SEC pushing the misinformation. So I've got one. I've got you on the Tyler. Okay, it's not funny today. Yeah, yeah. The title of the SEC continues to quest to harm U.S. investors. Time for the SEC to hold the sec accountable is there anyone that hold on when if the sec fucks up what's i'm sure there's a process i

don't know if anyone has the answer bruce maybe you have the answer who holds them accountable it just happened they investigate themselves and determine they did no wrongdoing yeah well the dao who regulates the regulator? But one of the answers is meant to be FATF, so Financial Action Task Force is meant to be the regulators of regulators. We've got another one here by... I was going to jump in and say,

everyone keeps talking about the death of Twitter. Well, what do we all do immediately right after news like this broke? I feel like there's no other platform like Twitter where we can have this conversation and things happen live. Everything seems so slow on other channels. Are we missing the key point, which is that the market has now shown us something? Because if we really believed that this thing was launched we had 40 minutes of data on the movement of the price right there's no yeah but that's the answer if it's the full 40 minutes we get to liquidate everyone and come back to the same spot right i mean schrodinger's cat is

about to commit harry carey i mean it's crazy bill is that is that the time between the tweets 40 minutes i don't know. I'm guessing since I was actually working. But it was certainly enough time to have some interesting data, right? So just, guys, again, Charles Gasparino says something interesting. I want to get your thoughts. So what Gary tweeted in response to the false tweet, he said the SEC Twitter account was compromised and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot Bitcoin exchange traded products.

Now, Charles quote tweets that not long after. So what 10 minutes later, quote, we said, what's so weird is that he isn't saying the tweet is wrong. Also, this has to be North Korea. By the way, based on what I'm hearing, there's going to be a massive investigation into this. Now, three points. I don't know why he's heard minutes after this happened and there's going to be an investigation. I think that's pretty

far-fetched to say that earlier. And I'm sure there's going to be an investigation. The North Korea thing I'm going to ignore. But the first one is what's so weird is that he isn't saying the tweet is wrong. I don't think we can look into... can anyone kind of dissect the Gary tweet? Is there anything of value in it? I'll pin it at the top.

Maybe Scott, actually, let me try to pin it now. And everyone could read it, but I'm not sure if there's anything in that tweet. Spoiler, there's nothing of value in anything Gary Gensler tweets. Yeah, but it has to tweet as quickly as possible so it's like it's not taking a lot of plan going through compliance etc he's had to tweet something out so maybe um you know kind of slipped and said something it could indicate whether an approval is coming tomorrow or at least of such i don't think there is i think it looks pretty basic he was literally saying i'm so tired of

spaces talking about the etf we're gonna actually give them another subject so he gave you another subject for the space i've just i've just pinned it above as as well and then jay's post i've got two more tweets james posts should have listened to the sec about the sec And then he's quote tweeting the tweet by the SEC on October 17, 2023. Careful what you read on the internet. The best source of information about the SEC is the SEC. So that was on October 17th by the SEC. And lastly, we've got Tyler Winklevoss.

I expect SEC enforcement to send SEC social media and cybersecurity team a well-known study video. Mikul? Yeah, just a quick question. Because I mean, just a quick comment, because I know you were asking about the authenticity of the original post. I'm looking at a screenshot of it now. And if you look closely, it seems pretty obvious to me that a new text was actually posted

over an old quote, because the quote is actually kind of under the text. So just analyzing that initial post, it does look like it was photoshopped to some degree by someone and made to look like an SEC post rather than some pre-written SEC post. Either way, I don't think we can blame anyone for falling for fake news from the actual SEC account, right? Oh, for sure. I mean, we can analyze that. I agree with you. We can analyze it to death.

But when you see SECgov tweet something that everyone's expecting within this 24-hour period, which, by the way, makes it the perfect psyop for whoever did this, there's no blame on us for falling for that fake news. One thing that is pretty noteworthy, I think, is I think about five or 10 years ago, nobody would have had the kahunas to tweet these types of things at the SEC. I think it's a reflection of, you know, a level of respect that seems to have been degraded as a result of actions recently, because nobody would have done this before. You'd be scared shitless to try and even, like,

tweet underneath the chair of the SEC or the SEC's official account, particularly if you're, you know, regulated or a broker-dealer. It is a sign of changing times. Yeah, that's a super good point. Yes. I'm SEC regulated and I'm terrified of them my whole career.

You know, you don't badmouth the regulators in your space. It's not a wise move. But I do badmouth them because they're so, so bad. As much as it is a risk to me, potentially, because these are just the kind of brand of people that would try and wreck somebody's career because they make a mean tweet i have to take the risk because it's my industry too and i i have been registered a long time and i grew up in this industry and i care about it and i care about america and it sounds corny

but i want my industry clean i don't want sam in it and i also don't want Gary Gensler in it because they're both bad actors. Just got, just look at that. I'm not sure if he did that already. And I didn't pay attention. I was just looking at the price action and there's not my forte. So I'm just going to read out what the chart did and you and Gary and, and the rest of the panel could kind of break it down.

But at one 26, my time I'm in, I'm in Dubai at one 26 AM. My time is when Gary tweeted. And that was the lowest point for bitcoin today is at 45 45 000 whatever 400 i see 44 701 point days i see i see i'm looking at trading view i see 45 300 or 45 297 but that's i'm just saying the lowest point is at 126, exactly when Gary tweeted. And when Gary tweeted, it immediately spiked up to 46.2 from 45.2 or.3. So it went up by $1,000.

And then it went back down. I don't know. The rest of it is just a mystery to me. What I mean is that when the news came out, there was an immediate spike to 47.7. And I'm assuming… Yeah, exactly. But then it immediately dropped again. So what I'm trying

to make sense of, what I'm trying to understand is that, did it drop because people knew it was fake even before Gary tweeted, because the tweet was deleted? Or they found out it was photoshopped, or whatever it is? Or the person, or whoever was behind it, is just messing with the market? And it's...

Yeah, whoever's jumping in. Go ahead, Bill. Well, I was just going to say, you know, Bonk is up 15.5%. So it could be that there's a flight to safety here, you know. So we just got to, we really need to take a holistic view of what's going on before we jump to any conclusions. Just want to be very clear. Yeah, I didn't even actually take a look at what altcoins did in this situation. what's going on before we jump to any conclusions. Just want to, just want to be very clear. Yeah. I didn't even actually take a look at what altcoins did in this situation.

Now I got to bring up a dominance. My charts are moving slowly. We have a big storm here, but altcoins actually versus Bitcoin performed exceptionally well in the last hour. We saw dominance drop. And just as I spoke, Bop is up to 16 and a half percent.

so, um, actually, yeah, altcoins are generally going up. I mean, you guys can figure this one out to me. But it seems that they're outperforming Bitcoin in this moment, which is pretty curious, I would say. Dave? Whether for the altcoin comment there or for this entire fiasco with the sec i think the one thing that's super clear is we need a vomit emoji on twitter spaces seriously i mean but it's just factually i mean ethereum was trading at about 0.048 on the bitcoin pair uh which was the lowest that it's been basically since May of 21,

broke the lowest level from June 22, which was 0.049. It went down as far as about 0.047 today, now back up to almost 0.052. A very sizable move for something that moves very slowly and all after this. Really curious. Dave, Go ahead. William and Dave. Sorry, William and Dave. Very quickly, Mario, you were asking about that tweet.

Hester Pierce has retweeted Gary's tweet, the one denying that there was something there. That's a bit interesting. I don't know how to interpret it because I went through her timeline. She has never retweeted anything from Gary that I could just see. So I don't know how to interpret that, but she was very quick to retweet it. Bobby, this is more than that. When you zoom into the hourly, by the way, EFBTC, it's a monster move on huge volume.

Huge. I mean, Scott, I think that there's two things here that are important. You know, the first is this is yet another massive black eye for this SEC. And it's bipartisan, right? People are going to look at this. There's no way to look at this any other way. You know, they have new cybersecurity laws at the same time that they're trying to produce holding firms to a higher standard that they obviously can't meet themselves that that's not going to be there are plenty of people who are going to seize on that the fact is is it's not really that surprising while coins outperform because after all the narrative was shaping up

to be the sec saying okay bitcoin's okay but the other stuff we're going to go after hammer and tongs but a weakened sec that looks terrible means they're not, we're going to go after hammer and tongs. But a weakened SEC that looks terrible means they're not going to be able to go after all coins nearly as much, hammer and tongs. And so on a relative basis, it's fairly rational that all coins would outperform. But the real problem is the SEC is not supposed to be the story, right? They're just not. That is not their job. And there are a lot of people who look at this and say, it's not supposed to be their job, yet obviously it is. I mean, this is worse than the Cointelegraph intern, right? We don't know exactly what happened. I mean, the word he used was unauthorized. He didn't say false. So we don't really know where the hell it is. Agencies are not supposed to be

ambiguous. They're supposed to be clear. And this is not clear. And so no matter how you want to slice it, it is a big black eye for the SEC. Honestly, you know, the reaction to the news itself, I mean, we'll see. I mean, my suspicion is we'll end up right where we were before. And, you know, then when the approval happens, maybe it won't knee jerk up so much, maybe it won't knee jerk down so much. The real question will be how many assets, how much buying really is there and how long does it take to develop? It's sort of that theme that you and I were talking about on Monday. Yeah, that makes sense, Bill. I'm sorry, I'm trying to work in parallel. I don't know if this is true, but one of the listeners just, I guess here, just pointed out to me that the Coinbase account posted an ETF reaction, like literally within either seconds or a minute or two of the SEC announcement to the degree where it looked like they actually knew that it was coming. I don't know if it's true.

I'm just telling you what I was told. What did they say exactly? It was coming. I don't know if it's true. I'm just telling you what I was told. What did they say exactly? It was basically like a big heart image. I'm looking at a copy of the image now. It's basically a big heart image, like Coinbase loves ETFs. So clearly it was prepared in advance. This is not something you create in – I'm not talking about an emoji from a keyboard.

I'm talking about a big picture of a heart. You should – yeah. So just for the first two things, for the audience, I would love to get your thoughts on all this in the bottom right corner in the purple circle. And mainly if you think this is a mistake or there was a pre-prepped tweet. But I do want to go to that response. If anyone could check deleted tweets by Bill, what Bill was referring to, a deleted tweet by the Coinbase account, do let us know.

Check it out and post it at the top or DM it to me and the team will check it and we can pin it for everyone to see. Because, yeah, if it was tweeted that quickly, Bill, if that's true, I'm not sure who sent it to you. Yeah, but they probably just have it sitting in their drafts waiting for the approval, right? Yeah, you got to imagine that. I mean, we've got like three or four ready to go whenever this thing actually happens from Swan.

That's pretty normal. Yeah, but when do you get them? Would you get them done? All right, fair point. I mean, they're already ready. We have like, yeah, I mean, we've done like mid-journey illustrations

with AI and shit getting ready for these. And, you know, we were done like mid-journey illustrations with AI and shit, getting ready for these. And, you know, we were lucky that we didn't move fast enough to tweet it in the six or seven minutes in between the tweets. But yeah, they're ready to go. Gaurav, your thoughts on this? I asked you earlier, I think you had Mikey, she's not sure if it's working now. Yeah, I mean, it's a pretty serious conversation going on here while we were a bunch of alphas here in Zurich having a crypto meetup. And this happened and everything just fell off. You know, just about 10 minutes ago, I gave a speech on the public markets and how

things work around liquidity. And five minutes later, this happened and we were like laughing. It was basically watching soccer match with friends. So we thought, you know, what can be around liquidity and five minutes later this happened and we were like laughing it was basically watching soccer match with friends uh so we thought you know what can be better uh than than mario show uh what was the what was it is he gonna tell us what like i want to know what happened in the room like what was the reaction i'm actually curious from everyone so initially i was the one you know me right i was the one who took the news to the floor i was like guys this is done this is approved and the more sensible people like ralph and others they were like wait wait wait let me verify let me verify so we went to the sec account um and and

then everybody started announcing and congratulating to everyone and we already had you know drinks there so celebration started and we went onto the charts. And this is where I would actually want to bring attention of Scott, especially when he recently was talking about the movement on the charts. There's something tricky about this scenario that we observed firsthand being a third party, which is we went to the charts and it was already dumping. And then we found out Gary posted whatever, you know. The theory in between is it took him about 16 minutes to come back and reclaim the truth.

But the wick upwards and the wick downwards happened in between like about four minutes, four to seven minutes, depending on if you're looking at Spot and Binance and Kraken and futures. So there is definitely a play of informed trading somewhere, as I would think about it from a market maker perspective. For those who are not aware of what we do, we've been actively trading big amounts across the crypto market since 2016 as a hedge fund. So we're plugged into 60 plus exchanges and have been recording tick data since 2016 and I've been building analysis around it. So this is one thing that I would leave

the audience to chew. But the fun part is another story which everybody was talking about and I saw Scott post about it this morning, which is what happens

if they sell the news? You know exactly what happens now, right? Yeah, it's just confusing. I think the whipsaw, which, by the way, you know, when we were discussing it this morning, Mario, even on the actual approval, Ran was talking about it and quite a few that they expected, regardless of what happens over the next day two or three days this whipsaw in price action action that liquidates everybody on both sides short and long and that's 100 what we saw here whether that was a result of the fake news announcement or not so uh that should uh once again reiterate unless your uh professional has

been doing this for a long time and i would still caution them that this probably is not a news event to trade around. The big boys are positioned. They're ready for this. This is not the time to start taking on leverage and expectation of what's about to happen. Dave, what are we about to say? Yeah, I mean, I think that the previous speaker made an enormously important point. I mean, if it happened that there was a leak out of the SEC or if it happened that the place that post, if it really was a hack and the place that posted the fake news knew about it and actually the reason for the start of the wick down was they knew it was false, that is a monster story. Other than that, if it was just the SEC, an early release or something like that, and it actually happened the way it was, and it was just going to be a sell the news event, you know, it makes them as embarrassed. We've already made those points. It's pretty horrible. But if it turned out that it was actually a legit hack of the SEC, and they positioned themselves, and the reason the market started selling off is they started selling into it uh and people got wind of it and figured it out that is a monster story right you know that

you know at which point it's not a joke anymore about the sec and manipulation etc and i think that that distinction really matters so forensically if you whoever could figure that out that's that's a big deal i would uh add to that now that somebody is bothered to listen to that point. The fact that Gary came out after the dump reached the peak can spin a few more conspiracy theories, although I'm not one, so I'm probably not the best at that. But I'd also want to point out this fact as well. If you look at the spot at the future trades, they started dropping well before spots. And if you know how it's configured, how perpetuals are configured, you can see that, I mean, you'd know that they move before the spot,

they front run the spot, the intent front runs the spot and larger bets, let's say, if it was a conspiracy theory, and somebody was planning on it would definitely be futures, right? Nobody would go in and put in, you know, everything spot and then sell, but rather go in at a 20x leverage or 10x, depends on who it is, and then short it from that point. So again, trying to be a conspiracy theorist for the first time on a show, probably not performing at my optimum, but I'll leave the audience to take it from here then.

But all the facts still remain true. The facts are still true. I want somebody who can like quickly pull a chart, place the tweet timing and make a tweet about it so that it can be pinned to this conversation to make it even more interesting. And in fact, probably landing onto something substantial. I mean, even the CME futures went to a discount, right?

Went from 100 basis point. Exactly. Oh, you were talking the same language. Yes. I mean, I tweeted it. The funding shifted. I showed the volatility. I thought it was kind of fun because, you know, our trading system, we capture this.

We let people actually make money doing it. But I was watching the same thing. There were backwardizations across multiple markets. For whatever reason, crypto.com happened to have been the first market to roll over and, which, of course, is not a narrative the SEC really wants to be true. But that's what the data shows. So there's a lot of interesting things that could be dug out of this. It's just, it's going to take some time. Mario, I think we're getting to something. You should have somebody pin the tweet and get more thoughts. You know, I would have never thought about the sec uh and and the united states

limitation to that news of course it makes sense now uh yeah the tweet just just retweet it i'll look at your account and i'll pin it unless you know how to hold on you host your own spaces now you know how to pin it you could pin it at the top oh let's not talk about it i don't know i want i want um so the question that i have is um oh the altcoin moves that we're seeing right now. We're seeing Bitcoin, you know, altcoins outperform Bitcoin. How would you explain that, Gaurav? And I think, Joey, hold on. Joey, as I said, Joey, you posted about this, saying a lot of money is moving from Bitcoin to altcoins.

Yeah, basically, I just saw, because we have a couple minutes of news and Scott kind of alluded to it a little bit, altcoins did outperform Bitcoin minutes after the announcement. It seems like the Bitcoin dominance is dropping, which doesn't make a lot of sense. Unless people are like, wait a minute, I just saw what happened for 30 minutes. Solana, AVAX, Ethereum,

all outperformed the move that Bitcoin did. If I'm playing this news, I'm better off in Solana, AVAX, Ethereum than I am in Bitcoin, for example. So are people repositioning their bet if they're playing this by the news? And I kind of feel like they are, to be honest. Can I ask a question joe on that yeah yeah yeah um i i have a um again i would go back to to the primary point i made what did people exactly see are you are you uh referring to people saw a major news, highly anticipated news hitting the market, not actually making an impact for more than three minutes, not even a five minute scandal. I think any sensitive would look at 15 and more, but not even a five minute scandal. And then an immediate drop. Probably I'm missing a thing here, but what sentiment are you

talking about? So Bitcoin didn't actually perform to the news. Four minutes, one candle. I mean, we are just looking at a nuked market for more than a 16% pullback that held itself for more than eight minutes at least with that 15% and then resorted back to 9% with the news five days ago. So I'm probably not able to entirely collect what you're implying. Yeah, but if you look at... Is that a positive? No, for Bitcoin, no. But if you pull out the...

If you look at the Solana chart, for example, you'll see it lasted for a lot longer than that. So I assume anyone who's a trader playing this news right now is looking at what happened to several of the big L1s, maybe some of the L2s, and they're looking at, okay, what happened during this news? This is where I should place my bet. And that bet, based on the information that you have currently, Bitcoin wasn't the best bet. It wasn't the best move you can make. Scott, that's exactly what I was saying before. I'm looking at the ETH hourly, and clearly someone believes that the news

is a rotation into ethereum as the next domino to fall and you can see it's still going right so i yeah i think that was a rocket under what's next and i think that you know my impression i'm not giving you what i think should happen or will happen what the market believed in that few minutes where it was news and not fake is that there would be a rotation into who's next. By the way, I've been talking about

that rotation and taking a beating for it for months. No surprise there, but that's exactly what happened necessarily on that move, but that's what I've been looking for. Yeah, I've just, by the way bill you've got a lot of echo a lot of feedback on your end bill i had my phone in the stand so i was just saying if you okay can you get on mute again i was muting you because the feedback if you look at the last two candles uh clearly there's a volume spike and it coincided with with the tweet with a rotation into what's next it's just obvious so yeah i would rather to that like like the money flew in and uh you know the primary the

primary target disappointed uh i mean if that's a theory we are implying to then it of course it's acceptable but um yeah okay i mean that's a great just but I would earlier it's pinned above for those who didn't see it that's like 20 minutes ago yeah and I've also pinned at the top the right next to Scott's tweet the Coinbase tweet

that came out minutes after the ETF approval that we're talking about earlier so as a let me see the tweet again. It's just an image of Coinbase loves ETFs. That's pretty much it, a blue image. So anyone else to check that out, I've just pinned it above. Almost as good as their Super Bowl ad with the little QR code bouncing around for 20 seconds.

I'd be curious to ask the panel how many of us think it was a hack and how many of us think it was a pre-planned release that someone – I'd also ask the audience to listen to the comments because I was going through it earlier. I think initially people were pointing the finger. It was a mistake and it was a very pre-planned tweet. But then when we started analyzing the actual tweet, if someone could pin the actual tweet that they put out, the fake tweet,

it would be good to see it. Someone can pin it. That would be great. But when we had Mikkel analyze it, among others, it looked fake. It looked like it was Photoshopped on top of another tweet. Bill, are you unmuting? Did you see Anthony Scaramucci's tweet? Basically, he said, and I'm paraphrasing what I have in front of me, but basically he used the term, I think he's lying, and this was a prepared tweet, and someone jumped the gun. That's what he said.

I think it's this, yeah, what's his exact tweet, if this is it? That's what he said. He said, I believe that Gensler the Nazis... That's what he said. He said, I believe that Genzer is lying. That's what Anthony Scaramucci said. I believe. I think he's just basing it on his belief. I'm not sure if he's looked into it, if he's looked, if it's photoshopped or not. He has no proof, but I'm just telling you what he said. What do you think, Bill? By the way, Anthony Scaramucci is the person who seeded

BlackRock's ETF. He's also Trump's secretary. I think the SEC was SMS2FA hacked. I really do. I think they were using SMS for this. Somebody figured out the phone number associated with the account, and they were SIM jacked, just like many of you here have been SIM jacked. And it's ineptitude that a government agency would be using SMS for 2FA? I think this was probably a prepared tweet that was scheduled anywhere from two to five business days ago, and they screwed it up. That's what I think.

They were supposed to schedule it at a certain time. They missed that time, and it went out. None of the language in this tweet sounds anything like a hack. It literally sounds exactly like SEC language. I think it's I think it was just a screw up that probably was supposed to go out at the exact time it went out today, tomorrow. But it didn't. And it I think this is just somebody at the SEC missed some sort of administrative number that they were supposed to put in. And it went out at the wrong time. I can only imagine what it's like at the SEC office running around. It's probably like, you know, an episode of The Office when the fire alarm's going off.

And people are trying to climb out windows and, you know, through the roof and stuff. You know, hilarious. Hilarious in every way. I mean, one thing to back that up is I've been saying for days that it's virtually certain it will be in that 4 to 4.05 window after the equity markets close. The SEC knows Coinbase. They know MicroStrategy. They know Riot. They know a bunch of other companies. They don't want to be having market moving things during the time. You know that's the window. It will happen when it does happen. Which is why we all jumped on it and assumed it was right.

That's a really great point. But if you guys are both right, and I agree that you have a great point, think about how crazy that is. The chairman, I mean, we all dislike him. We know this. But the chairman of the SEC just went and lied to the public. Shocking. Shocking, isn't it? Shocking.

This is so beyond any other of the many, many, many ridiculous things. There has to be a point when people say enough is enough arbitrary and capricious I believe is the but Bruce he didn't say it was hacked he didn't the language his language does not say it was hacked I've pinned it

that's why I question it I've pinned it I've just pinned above the tweet unauthorized compromised means hacked. Yeah, it means hacked. Andrew had a friendly wager on SMS hack versus inept marketing employee. But either way, it's a friendly wager.

I'm happy to do it. I have no idea how we'd ever find out. You know, government agencies aren't the most transparent folks in the world. No, they are not. And I think, I believe a couple of weeks ago, we were in a spot where the SEC was defending itself for lying to the courts and asking not to be sanctioned. So, you know, Gensler's going to cover his rear end. And I would imagine that he could care less about the Twitter heat. He's probably getting significant heat from the likes of BlackRock and Franklin Templeton and those types of folks, which, by the way, he'll need to be friends with over the next decade if he ends up running for office, he probably will as a senator or something in some east coast state uh so yeah he's got his masters and this is a screw-up i always thought he would go work for blackrock let's say either way right no finance finance finance bill, finance. I don't think finance would hire him, but I think BlackRock

might. I think it's fake because the first sentence says, today the SEC grants approval for Bitcoin ETFs, and they don't list which ones, for listing on all registered national securities exchanges, which reads really weird. Like, why would you

say all national securities exchanges instead of... And how is that even relevant? You would just say all national securities exchanges instead of... How is that even relevant? I agree. I vote fake. Just for the audience that's going through it, if you want to go look at the tweet, the original tweet by the SEC about the approval, you could see it pinned

above. I'm going through it. It doesn't look real at all. It looks really poorly made. Gaurav? Yeah, I don't know i mean probably i'm just in the same fun mood it all started with so if i was to trigger more conspiracy theories around this how about the common um claims that people make about all these people having their insiders in these large agencies and if i was like black rock or one of these top agencies and if i was like blackrock or one of these top agencies that already companies corporates that would have people inside sec i would definitely want to um gauze uh the market reaction because i'm just about to pump in a few

billions if i mean of course starting with five million and a few billions I would want to test it, right? And the testing won't just happen in plain sight. So there has to be a story of a hack and then check what happens for 15 minutes. And then, of course, come back with an average claim of a compromising of accounts while I was able to see how the market reacts to a news like that. Just another theory on the table. Yeah, I don't think that, you know, and to both of Bill's point, I think, leaning towards it being an SMS hack, you know, in addition to the evidence of the thing, as much as we dislike Gensler, you know, the idea of him just blatantly and outright lying

where Congress and everyone else can see it, I just don't think he's, you know, I think that would not be a smart move. I don't think he would do that. And as far as, like, BlackRock or somebody trying to test things and being involved, I mean, this is major, major trouble. Nobody's going to risk their career in potentially going to jail to try it. Like, who would do that? You know, there's nobody in BlackRock who's incentivized to do that, where they'd say, oh, I'm going to make so much money at this that I'm willing to risk my career, because they wouldn't really be able to, a way to play that much and trade that much. And you definitely would be, you know, if somebody, if it turns out that it's, I mean,

well, apparently it is somebody who hacked it, that seems most likely, that person is probably going to get, there's a good chance they're going to get caught and they're going to get in big trouble. You know, I would imagine that the doj and the fbi would investigate this just because of the high profile nature and due to the zagonic face you better believe that yeah i remember the uh do you remember the uh major twitter hack it was like july maybe a year and a half or two years ago now where uh major accounts tweeted basically crypto scams it was like kanye west and bill Gates and some of the biggest people. And that was that, that person was found in Hillsborough County.

I know that because my friend was a state attorney prosecuting it and got, it was a young 1920 years old and got major jail time for that hack. So I mean, did that, that absolutely, whoever did this is taking a major major risk but by doing it you have to imagine they had some sort of incentive they've probably been waiting for the opportune time to take advantage uh of the fact that they had figured out the phone number and and knew how to basically port it over right because yeah i mean i what would be the reason i'm against the SMS phone jacking. Sorry, go ahead. Yeah, the reason I'm against or defending the SMS jacking,

at least I'm not talking about more sophisticated ways of getting into the system authenticator. You know, most of the telecoms have already implemented the phone jacking mechanisms. I'm not sure about particular phone service, but most of them have a 24-hour SMS limitations whenever a number is ported. So if you port a number from one device to another

or a SIM card to an iSIM or eSIM, you basically can't receive SMSes unless you do a special request and produce that authority. So phone jacking, I think, is a bit... I don't think that's true in the US. So I think... Oh, okay. SIM swap is very easy.

SIM swaps in the US are a disaster. So you can set up special security settings, which all of you should do. First of all, you shouldn't be using SMS for two-factor authentication anyway. That's insanity. But regardless, you should be setting up a special security setting so that no one can request porting of your number without you physically going to a store and giving a secret passcode, which is kind of the best you can do.

There's also another service provider that somebody... I was one of the first people ever to use it. Hasib is a close friend. I got Cineswap twice on T-Mobile, and that's the only way. people ever to use it. Hasib is a close friend. I got twice on T-Mobile and that's the only way I literally tweeted about it. Like you, there's no way to really avoid being SIM swapped at some point in the U S socially. And they can socially engineer,

uh, socially engineer you and call customer service and get it done. And all it takes is one either incompetent or corrupt customer service agent at any of the major providers, uh, you know know thousand bucks and they'll give you you know they'll sim swap you right from the company so there's no real way to protect it unless you have a company that is answering the call instead of your major provider like funny yeah and i think michael turpin sued at&t for some insane amount of money, like what, $50 million or something? He got SIM swapped for over $20 million or something.

Yeah, $20 million. Thank you. And he actually lost, as I understand it, which is, you know, I guess it's understandable. But yeah, in the U.S., you're really taking your life in your know if you guys saw it, but Senator Bill Hagerty is asking the SEC for accountability. So I'm expecting a number of senators and perhaps Congress members as well are going to start piling up. Could this really impact the SEC in any negative way? Could they be held accountable by the Congress? I hope so, because, yeah, it's very short. He says, just like the SEC would demand accountability from a public company if they made such a colossal market-moving mistake, Congress needs answers on what, on what happened.

This is unacceptable. And then right after he retweeted and he copied one of Gary's tweets that said, this is a reminder to secure your financial accounts. Kind of them giving us lessons, apparently. So he says, in light of recent events, you might want to revisit this Gary Gensler. This is from Senator Bill Hagerty. And who's not, I mean, there are, as you know, more hawkish senators than him. So if he's kind of the one piling up, I can't imagine, I'm waiting to see what Emmer and Davidson and some of the other kind of stronger folks are going to say

well i can't i can imagine that we'll get one side tweeting uh sec accountability and we'll very quickly get uh elizabeth warren and her side tweeting about how this is somehow the fault of crypto and we're a bunch of hackers and degenerates and that this is proof that uh we need to be highly regulated and banned right it'll be uh both sides and we'll hear it blamed on on either one depending on which party or position that politician takes i've got i've got a question for you and i'd like anyone to answer this i know you were discussing it earlier and i was looking at um there's a chart that Joe did kind of breaking down, not sure if it's accurate. Scott, you can look at it. I've pinned it above Joe who was on stage earlier.

He did a chart and he kind of pointed out when the fake tweet came out and then when Gary's direction came out and what the chart did afterwards. So essentially the Bitcoin pumped after the approval tweet came out and it dumped pretty quickly um and then it started picking up gradually and then gary's tweet that this is false news came out and then it dumped all the way to whatever for whatever it was 40 45 whatever 45 300 um so so the question you go off is looking at this does that give you any indication of what bitcoin could do and i think you've already answered it but ask it again what bitcoin could do if and when the approval comes in so one thing that a lot of uh i would say senior uh people in finance and affairs around this have been saying um is that it won't be just a straight pump to a hundred thousand

dollars because uh first of all we already knew this news. We're already in the middle of a harvening anticipation and excitement. So in a way, we have already case in a major news like this. But I think something which is the opposite of the pullback, which is 15% upwards, 20% upwards to the max. And then the trading begins to happen and extra, like some more capital comes in. By the way, the daily volume of Bitcoin is already above 5 billion. The reason I'm using that particular number is because if all the ETFs start trading with a primary capital of 500 million, they're still not able to contribute a significant amount with respect to the daily trading amount, right? So the real price action, and I'm talking about the real price action, not speculation, not greed index

coming into picture, would happen over a period of time as and when the capital is slowly plugged in right so so i don't think remind us what you saw this is sorry i thought you were done um yeah so so the the move was actual the move was real. And again, I'm strongly believing, of course, that somebody did it to play the news. And when they saw the price peaking out, they started selling. So it is, of course, indeed the right representation of the actual event. I don't think we can get more real than this. And to your point about Gary coming out, it's just, you know, retail speculation on the top, while everything around that has already played out. Everything around the news, and then the person who played on this news

sold, I think the incident was already done within those 10 minutes or rather four minutes if I was to put it in terms of sales orders and buy orders. Does that answer the question? I don't know if anyone's a TA here, but we did bounce off the 618, which would have been very normal. It's typically the largest resistance we have in Fibonacci. And you would expect a test of it first, which we had not tested. And we did with this candle. And then it got rejected. That would be very normal here. Exactly, Joao.

That's actually a perfect representation of the market that you just said. The market, I mean, I'm talking about traders and millions of traders and quants that have quoted their own knowledge and understanding of trading. It actually is based on the basics like Fibonacci's and MACD's and so on. And the bounce you're talking about is a resultant of the same. So while somebody is not following the books, everyone else is, almost everyone, you know, traders are, they did their move and the bounce is a result of a massive number of trader psychology, which plays, which gauzes the market from the books that they've read and the charts they've played in the institutional market with trillions of dollars of liquidity so uh the rebound you're looking at right now is is a is a reflex of that

mindset yeah and and i'm a big advocate of this concept like literally at the moment this happened i was speaking on this topic in in zurich uh exactly on this topic yeah ta shows you what with the industry with the um industry now now the word i forget the word um what the big guys are doing and news is what the retail is doing and i think perfect what we're saying yes yeah we're on the same page now. Mikkel? Yeah, I just wanted to jump in because I heard people asking the should further show that this was not a pre-scheduled tweet and someone actually did gain access to the account. And I was under the other impression originally, and I saw a bunch of evidence that made it pretty clear to me that this account was hacked, but it does not make any sense

that it would be a pre-scheduled tweet and there would also be the person who had control of the account liking inappropriate tweets for the SEC to like. I think that should give everyone the confirmation they need to know that this was in fact a hack and not some pre-scheduled event. Tell me more about those inappropriate tweets. Yeah, what did they like? What were they liking? event tell me more tweets yeah what did they do they weren't that bad they were all just they were liking all the comments under the tweet like bitcoin to the moon bitcoin hodl just tweets that the sec account has never liked before in its history and not only obvious got it done by

i think this is but this is important but this is actually important to just uh terry i'll give you the mic right after but this is is important Mikkel to mention is that trading firms might have noticed this and I think the price actually probably reflected this one trading firm notices it and trades against the news like hey this looks fake, the SEC is liking Bitcoin to the moon and that could have played a role in their decision making which makes it more difficult to try to use this as a guide of what could happen tomorrow yeah i really don't think this is a guide for what's going to happen on the approval to be honest i think that this is completely manipulated someone would only take the risk of hacking the sec and tweeting that if they had a very intentional trade around it and they made that trade and that trade is what you're looking at what's really interesting

we we we have arcs we have arcs deadline coming up like in the next 24 hours ish and this is you know this is a serious wrench um into what's going on there i mean it's the deadline of the deadline they they can't extend they can't delay. It's either, it's either approved by default, um, or it's denied. And you know, what's the, whatever this is, this is big time egg on the face of the sec. I will go back and whoever I bet and whatever I bet, I'd like to rescind that bet.

It's clear with the likes post the actual uh hacked post now that this that this no take back buddy you can give uh you can give 20 bucks to a charity of your choice this does look like a hack i but i but the point being made here is that, you know, ARC and 21 shares, their deadline of all deadlines, I believe, is tomorrow. For the 19B4. Yeah. He said it wouldn't be that crazy for them to still just somewhat punt that 24 or 48 hours, even though it's a quote unquote hard deadline, because the SEC has done that before. And what would ARC really do? Are they going to sue over 24 hours or 48 hours? But either way, it's the 19 before, not necessarily the S1.

Yeah, you're still going to faced with, you know, even if it was 48 hours from now, right, or 72 hours from now, they still look pretty stupid, right? Like, even if they approve 72 hours from now, you know, the SEC still looks dumb, frankly, right? There's no face saving on this for the SEC. You already have congressmen like, you know, we said already tweeting about this, holding accountability, saying that they need to speak, that they're accountable to Congress and we need answers. This is this is really bad, especially in context of the fact that the SEC has made this activity effectively illegal, that the cybersecurity is the responsibility of the institutions that are tweeting and they're now the institution that's been hacked and didn't take care of their cyber security i think the good thing for us is that if the if the the low likelihood that the the s was looking to reject the etf application which we all think is very unlikely to happen i think this makes it even more unlikely now that after this big fuck up they go go ahead and and reject the the application tomorrow so some might take the other side of that i agree

with you but some might say that now listen there's this thing that says hey whoa whoa what happened here let's uh you know let it simmer and figure it out the speed and pace at which coinbase put out their coinbase loves etf post right after this looked like it was the real deal, I think that's as good a tell as Goldman Sachs wanting to jump on the grayscale and BlackRock authorized participants. I thought so. I thought so. But then Corey came in and said, no, we already have a whole bunch of tweets ready for when the ETF gets approved and others have done the same. So I thought the same thing, Andrew,

but apparently Coinbase is not the other one. It was literally within minutes that they put that out we all know this is coming and coinbase interns screwed up and took it as real the back end of of of nearly all of these etfs so you know they they would they should know right you know these organizations should know that it's a done deal already they've just been muzzled you, and if they were to come out and say it before it's been approved, they'd be in real hot water from a regular.

I don't agree with that. The reason is because I think nobody knows for sure except the SEC and they're holding their cards close to their vests. And so even though they're giving a lot of signs that it will be approved right it's i think the coinbase intern just reacted to the uh tweet like every a lot of other people and retweeted or liked or said moon or whatever and that was the coinbase intern's job was to put that tweet out there yeah i mean i think this is like i said you can't fault anyone at this point for taking fake news from the SEC.gov official account. Assuming that the likes of these organizations don't already know. I mean, heck, Jan VanEck already slipped up and said approval is going to happen on Wednesday and it's going to trade on Thursday. Yeah, did you see that video, Scott?

The team just tagged us in it, the Van Eyck CEOs. Yeah, I shared it actually earlier. It was six or seven hours ago, I think, that he was on TV. And he effectively said, but if you listen to it in context, it seemed like he was disagreeing with what kind of everybody has said, which is these things will be trading Thursday. My friend Steve McClurg from Valkyrie was on TV. He said, I think these will be trading Thursday. And there's somethingClurg from Valkyrie was on TV, said I think these will be trading Thursday. There's something going on here that I don't know if it's just the pressure of the SEC,

or if they all just know they're getting approved. I can tell you I had Matt Hogan, you know, Ryan, you're here from Bitwise, and I joked with Matt this morning on YouTube. I said, man, I can just tell by your face there's so much that you want to say right now, and you can't. And it was like, right. It was like,

he almost every time Matt had something to say, he pivoted to Dave and was like, well, maybe Dave can speak on this topic because I can't give direct information on this. Right. So, I mean,

it, I, Ryan, I know you can't speak to it either on behalf of Bitwise, but I think that, you know, there's, there's a lot that the filers know that we don't.

Yeah. In that case, we'll have to agree with what Scaramucci has to say, right? I mean, he seeded the black. Yeah. Scaramucci is the person who first seeded the black rocket.

Yeah, exactly. So, so Scaramucci's guess, I think is the best one. They were using the scheduling tool and somebody just misscheduled it. Anyways, I'm having a fireside chat with him in two days in Davos. Definitely a spicy topic to pick up on stage.

Ryan was about to comment when I was speaking to him. Oh, yeah. yeah, thanks. I mean, similarly to Matt, I'm really constrained by what I can say due to compliance. But I mean, this is just, life in crypto is just insane. If this doesn't prove that, I don't know what else would. Go ahead, Terrence, and then Dave and Joe. Yeah, so, yeah, I all we would agree that it's at least 99.999 certain or whatever the sec is going to improve this thing probably

tomorrow or later this week um i think part of the price spike was but it's not 100 but you know because it's not over till it's over so the So maybe the price traded down a little bit because people are overreacting to these politicians palling on and saying, wait a minute, we got to hold up if the SEC doesn't know what it's doing. Maybe they want to use that as an excuse to slow things down or derail the ETF approval. But realistically, it's not going to happen. So I think that if I had to guess, Bitcoins should be rationally back at the price it was before this fake tweet or incorrect tweet. The second thing I'd say is the fact that it came out today instead of tomorrow is a surprise if it was true. And I think that's one reason the market reacted so violently tomorrow. If it, if it gets approved, like we all expect tomorrow or later, then that's like not really as much news.

Yeah. But Terrence, I think that somebody, if somebody was using this in some way to train around it, they wouldn't wait till tomorrow at the risk of a real tweet coming before there. So this is the perfect timing for it just to be clear. Right.

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. From the hacker's perspective perfect timing right the day before what could be better really um and then from the from the the market's perspective like if you think today's big price spike is a signal maybe not because everybody's expecting it tomorrow so maybe tomorrow's price spike will happen but it'll be much smaller or somewhat at least significantly smaller,

I would expect, if there is a price by the news sort of event. Dave, go ahead. Yeah, I made the point. One of the funniest things about this, if you really want to think about it, is because it so violently impacted the price of the CME future

actually going to a discount. So it actually moved more than the spot Bitcoin US dollar the CFTC is going to have to investigate this from our market manipulation so now you have the CFTC with the ability to investigate the SEC and try to figure out who did the hack and what they did with it and considering the turf war that's going on in crypto I find that that very. But the less amusing but also important point is, remember, there's already CFTC futures, there's already ETFs approved on CFTC futures. And this literally proved, the chart that I posted literally proved that the manipulation impacts the CFTC products arguably as much or more,

more in this particular case, than the spot products. So anyone trying to use this as a justification, it's like, nope, that's not what the data shows. Dave, I know we asked you earlier, and you've been here, so maybe you haven't really been able to dig in, but was there anything questionable or astounding or surprising that you saw on CoinRoutes when you look at these flows and what actually happened in real time? Yeah, the most surprising thing was during the spike and during the fall that Bitcoin tether was $400 or $500 higher than Bitcoin

dollar. So whatever it was, whatever was triggering the sell-off, they were selling in the U.S. and they hadn't gotten abroad yet. And the liquidations were relatively tame. I mean, you can see even now. There just wasn't that much leverage built up. They would have had a lot more luck doing this last week when there was that huge open interest flush.

But this is not trivial, the fact that the tethered dominated. The foreign exchanges did not fall nearly as far. I mean, they eventually caught up, but they weren't believing it. You know, it took time. And that's why we saw, I remember at the beginning you were saying that it had gone down to 45 something. And I was like, no, it's 44.5. I was looking at Coinbase spot market and hadn't checked any other charts. Fair.

Yeah, but those are the two big things, the CME going to a discount, the perpetual swaps going to discounts but not huge, and the foreign spot markets not falling nearly as far as the U.S. market in spot. Those are the things that we notice right away. Obviously, lots of volatility, lots of volume with their system, yada, yada, yada. Mario, I think we've basically covered it and we're going to be back in all of like 16 hours tomorrow to talk about this again and maybe a potential having spot i think it's like three or four o'clock in the morning yeah yeah i'll give it yeah i'll give you the mic job but i

what i've scored i've noticed is i think we're going to get less numbers when the ETF gets approved. This is a much more entertaining story. This is the ETF space. As much as the market is priced in for the ETF, so is your space. So is the entire media around ETF. True.

Yeah, part of me just wants to believe that this was uh satoshi's final fu to the sec before the world of bitcoin changes that's kind of what i want to believe yeah maybe that's something to do with that 1.2 million that was mysteriously sent to the satoshi wallet the other day all right mario let's uh i'm gonna let you go to bed i'm gonna go do you know this before you go for it you can jump up but I'm going to go. Do you know this? Before you go, you can jump up. But Mike, I want to get Mike's thoughts.

You can't end the space about a fake ETF tweet by the SEC that told us earlier to not trust anything but the SEC and not trust online tweets and not have Mike Alfred comment on it. Well, the irony of this whole thing is truly, truly incredible. I just found it fascinating. Gary Gensler's supposed to be on vacation next week in Aspen with Kid Rock and CZ to do a silent retreat, and obviously he may have to cancel that now, which is disappointing for him.

But I think the big thing that I wasn't here for the whole space, but the big thing that people should have thought the moment that they saw that tweet is, holy shit, BlackRock and Fidelity are going to be buying Bitcoin in the open market tomorrow, if that had been true. And so the price action in the first minute or two or five or 30 is basically irrelevant. actually matters is what is the new supply demand dynamic when you have a dozen ETF issuers tripping over each other to try to soak up all of the liquidity in the US spot market. That's it. That's the only thing that matters. And so this gamesmanship around the actual approval and the matrix port report and this fake tweet, it's all just bullshit. It's balancing out these

market makers who are sometimes unbalanced because they're taking on too much risk on one side of the ledger. And so people plant these stories, people do hacks, people do whatever in order to try to rebalance those things. But in like six months, the only thing that's going to matter is how much money actually goes in to the BlackRock Fidelity Invesco products. And that's what people should be really scared of. They shouldn't be scared of any of the short term because it's sort of irrelevant what they should be scared of is that they don't have enough bitcoin when blackrock and larry fink and co start trying to soak up the liquidity and so that that's what i'm focused on i had a no shit moment where i'm so large in the

space already and i had a moment where i'm like man maybe i should have bought more and so i'm so glad it was fake because it gives me another 24 hours. Yeah, I think one thing I would have expected is for Bitcoin to pump. All the people just like you, Mike, they're like, shit, I just got the feeling of what an ETF feels like. And I think I should own more Bitcoin. I should be buying Bitcoin now preparing for tomorrow. But at least the price is not showing that, at least not yet. But what's fascinating is that I've asked a few panelists that question, Mike.

I'll probably wrap it up asking you that question. Two questions. First, in your opinion, just a number, likelihood of an ETF approval tomorrow or in the next few days? I've been saying 99% for a few weeks now. Perfect. All right, cool. 99% perfect, so almost certainty. Then my next question is, how did it feel when you first saw that tweet and you thought an ETF just got approved

I didn't feel anything I turned to my wife and said hey look here's this crazy tweet I thought this would come tomorrow but apparently it happened today you have no emotions I thought that before with Binance but now I'm 100% sure you have no emotions

no because I don't think it's priced in See, I thought that before with Binance, but now I'm 100% sure you have no emotions. No, not really. No, because I don't think it's priced in and I don't think it matters. The approval itself is sort of a fait accompli at this point. The only question, again, is like what are the flows actually looking like a quarter from now, two quarters from now, three quarters from now, as you align that with the halving and the sort of systematic scarcity that's going to happen in this market. And so I don't think the approval itself is the event. I think the event is the flow dynamics that we need to watch over the next, call it, four, six, eight, 12 weeks. So I'll get excited if I see $5 billion in the BlackRock product by the end of the week

or early. The inflows. It's not longer about the, as we said earlier, it's not about the approval anymore. It's about the inflows. Correct. That's everything. about the approval anymore. It's about the inflows. That's everything.

Now we can wrap it up. It's 3 in the morning. I'm dead as

well. 6, 10 p.m. Just too late, man. Got to go.

We'll see tomorrow in 16 hours or so. Thanks, everyone. Hopefully

tomorrow will be an actual ETF approval. Thank you.