The Wolf Of All Streets - ETF Mania! Crypto Skyrockets | Will Bitcoin Break $30K?

Episode Date: June 21, 2023

Bitcoin and alts are skyrocketing on the news of BlackRock's ETF application and the launch of EDX Markets, an institutional exchange backed by Fidelity, Citadel, and Charles Schwab. I am joined by Chris Inks and Charlie Burton as we discuss what's going on with markets and what to expect from crypto.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital Charlie Burton: https://twitter.com/charliebtrader ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

There is an ETF party going on in the United States and apparently everyone is invited as predicted. Once BlackRock put in their application, the crowd is joining and piling in. Invesco, Bitwise, WisdomTree, me, your cousin, his dentist, your sister's baby cousin, Tracy, everybody is going to file for an ETF because everybody thinks it's happening now with BlackRock. What that means for Gary Gensler? I don't know, man, but we're going to find out. Also, Bitcoin, obviously, 27K all day, 28K all day, 29K all day, continuing to go up. And it is not, as some will tell you, being led by a short squeeze in liquidations. This is the real deal being led by Spot. I'm

going to show you why. Also going to be joined later by Christopher Inks, aka Texas West Capital, and Charlie Burden to talk about the best trades to take in this market. Don't miss it. Let's go what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and smack the like button with the back of your hand smack it smack that all on the floor. Smack that till you get sore. What was Akon's lyrics? Oh,

smack that all on the floor. You guys know the song. Anyways, yeah, guys, I'm a little late. Was dealing with some things for Crypto Town Hall. A lot of people doing a lot of things over there. A lot of coordination happening. That's just the way it is. But man, what an experience being a part of that crypto town hall and Twitter spaces has been. Hope that all of you are having a wonderful day. It's Wednesday, right? My kid thought it was

Friday. One of my kids thought it was Tuesday. It's been that kind of week. But man, guys, look at that. Those are the crypto bubbles and they are all green. Every single one except for, what's this? PaxG. That's cool. XAUT. Don't know what you are. TUSD. Apparently stable. Corner down. Frax. Everything else here.

GeminiUSD. Everything else here. Super, super, extra, awesome looking. Massively green. Massively green. and if any of you have been following along i've basically just said one thing over and over again 25 212 25 212 25 212 like a mantra repeating it in the newsletter on youtube on twitter i'm not saying i'm some god-tier trader. I have any other information.

And these things miss all the time. But yeah, I used to come on here and we used to chart like crazy and degen and trade live. And then I would go in the newsletter and share 47 altcoins. But right now is the time to get the fuck out of the way of Bitcoin and just ride the wave, dude. Ride the Bitcoin wave. You know?

You can use Bitcoin dominance if that's your thing. Much ado about nothing there. A lot of arguments. But I think it's pretty obvious. Because Bitcoin is wrecking your alts. And we are in that part of the cycle right now. Could be ending pretty soon. In that part of the cycle right now where you go,

Wow, my portfolio looks pretty good. I'm up in USD. And then you flip over to the Bitcoin balance and you're absolutely wrecked and destroyed because Bitcoin is just plowing your alts, doing things to them illegal in every United States state. I said states twice, other than Alabama, maybe Mississippi, occasionally in Louisiana. And I heard once in Arizona. Right? Get out of the way. Get out of the way. But why is all this happening, guys? What is it? What's going on? It's obviously the BlackRock ETF, guys. Right? And we had arguably the worst news week ever last week in crypto literally ever sec went after binance and coinbase two days in a row how could it ever get worse than that maybe the china ban was worse

but hong kong's back right because we're bringing them back by being assholes in the united states but we had the worst week ever. And then all of a sudden on Friday, rumor has it BlackRock is going to apply for ETF. You know, BlackRock, which is literally like Death Star, Empire, Lord Sidious, Dooku,

slash Vader people. But yeah, we love them now because they're on our team. But BlackRock rolls in and now it's just an orgy of ETF rumors and an orgy of people jumping in. And now it's like the most bullish market ever. And we said it here. I remember that Drucified said it.

We said it here. But last week was peak bear market panic, depression. It could not get any worse. And when sentiment can't get any worse, the only way to go, it's up. Yeah, guys, WisdomTree files to start a US spot Bitcoin ETF on the heels of BlackRock's application. WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust will list on the SIBO BZX exchange the SEC has resisted allowing spot ETFs citing risks. Sources. That's like their sources. Sources. There's risks. What risks? I don't know, guys. We're citing them. Went on chat GPT, came up with an excuse for why there's no spot ETF. First of all, we're going to get one. I'm not saying we'll necessarily get one under Gensler. We're going to get one immediately.

But yeah, guys, we're going to get an ETF eventually. And right now there's panic buying in the market where people are buying spot Bitcoin massively to front run this news. We also saw GBTC was up like 17, 18% yesterday. If you listen to us literally talking about blinking our eyes to trade it yesterday morning with Mike Alford and Cheds, you would have made like 17, 18% yesterday. GBTC going up more than Bitcoin, obviously, because, well, I guess we just looked at the chart, shit. Going up more than Bitcoin because

the discount is closing because people are saying, hey, man, maybe the SEC has overstepped their bounds. Maybe Fidelity will buy Grayscale. That's completely rumored, by the way. Or maybe an ETF here will get approved. But WisdomTree coming in, filing on CBOE. Then Invesco reapplies for Bitcoin ETF, advocates for more crypto investment products. These guys have filed a number of times and are now reapplying strictly because BlackRock is here. BlackRock is here. Now, I believe, I'm not 100% sure, but that they have filed with the New York Stock Exchange. Not just them, though. Quick inventory of spot Bitcoin ETF filing since last Thursday. What do we got? We got iShares we got who else Bitwise we got WisdomTree

Invesco what changed recently SEC has been on the warpath against crypto something's up I mean what changed is either Gensler got way out over his skis or they're literally like plowing the rainforest deforestation in advance of Wall Street

strolling and paper industry make some paper out of those trees. Right? You know, as Fiboswani over here says, GBTC is going up because there's no ETF to buy. When we do, GBTC is dead. I don't know if it's dead or the discount just closes up and it slowly bleeds out and it's fine, but you still could make money on that trade.

What do you guys think? Do you think this is a grand conspiracy of the United States government and the SEC working together in a little room, dark corner meetings, so they can clear a path for BlackRock? BlackRock, yes, the government. Or, or, is it just crazy timing? I don't know. I don't know, guys. I really don't know. Because it's not like there's still a lot of bad news in the market, right? I mean, Binance is exiting the Netherlands, seemingly having to exit everywhere.

Dutch Central Bank won't even tell you why which i find hilarious right and there's still a hell of a lot of conjecture about what's next for the sec this is coming from barenberg who said stable coins defy likely to be sec's next target in u.s crypto crackdown not great not really awesome right and i've conjectured from things that I'm hearing in the streets, ear to the streets, to the ground, ear, streets, hearing things, I've heard they're coming after all the venture capitalists and hedge funds, right? The Gary Gensler is going to just go for all that low hanging fruit, people who will settle, who are just going to pay the fine, who may be invested in these assets. If you guys heard, met a lawman, James Murphy, on my show last week, he talked about really the impact of this secondary sales. And if the

secondary sales are deemed securities, that means that every fund who ever bought and sold a coin was violating the law, right? So they could easily come after that if we don't get any clarity because they love living in the murky waters. Gary Gensler is like the swamp thing, just in the murky waters, all disgusting and gross. And he's like, yeah, nobody can see me in the swamp, but do whatever the fuck I want down up in here.

Down up in here, went down and up. Phiboswani says, punch that like button like you would Gary Gensler. One of the funniest things, I keep tweeting, fire Gary Gensler, and some dude replied out of a catapult and showed a picture of a dude. That was awesome.

Yeah. I mean, if stable coins and DeFi are next and hedge funds and VCs are next. Well, why is Coinbase, I mean, why is Bitcoin, already in slip, why is it going up here? I can't tell you. I don't know why it's going up.

Do you know why it's going up? Because somebody knows something that we don't know. Just like that guy said in that tweet. I'm not trying to pander in conspiracy theory, but I mean, this move, as I said, is being led heavily by Spot. So listen, this is interesting because I'm going to show you what they said.

They, being CoinDesk. Bitcoin's rally to 28K causes the largest short squeeze this month. There's been no short squeezes this month, right? Hmm. 75-year-old man has one boner this month. It's his largest boner of the month, right? But like we're talking about 36.6 million in liquidations.

Do you guys remember real short squeezes when it's like $798 million liquidated in 17 minutes on ftx right we're literally writing articles now about how 36 million got liquidated and price went from like the 26s to 29 um that is not a short squeeze and by the way as this is happening if you look at the data i'll have to find it it's in one of these tweets somewhere up here that's not it that's not it that's not it that's it yeah there we go price grinding up while the spot premium is increasing which is causing a deeper negative funding rate shorts paying longs when price has been moving against them if it was a short squeeze the shorts will be gone more people are shorting right now the squeeze

if it is coming ain't even started right and on the soccer suite here noticeable uptick in volume on bitcoin on coinbase in today's u.s market hours boom Boom. BlackRock, Karate Trader, TWAP. Right? This is heavy spot buying led in the United States. There's also data that this is happening during hours of the United States. And this, this right here from CryptoQuant, this is not a short squeeze, but someone is just buying Bitcoin a lot. I repeat, this is not a short squeeze, but someone is just buying Bitcoin a lot. This is the short squeeze ratio. This tells you when a short squeeze is happening. Uh.

Uh. So guys, it's a fun narrative. Price is up. Squeezed in the shorts. We must have squeezed them. That was the sound of short squeezing, but that's not what's happening here. This is real serious people buying spot Bitcoin. Listen guys, the GBTC premium, I showed you that, right? That was massively up. Let's take a look just really quick. I haven't even looked,

but I just know it. Riot, Mira, MicroStrategy, MSTR. Right. Here's all the Bitcoin adjacent charts that we can look at. GBTC wildly outperformed Bitcoin by triple. Riot, I mean, this is a weekly, a daily. So yesterday went from 10 to 11.31. By my count, that's about a 13% rise. Bitcoin was up, what, 5%, 6%?

Marathon, another minor. Massively up the last few days. If you're just looking, oh, that's a four-hour chart, so massively up. Let's look at the daily. It was already up, but daily yesterday from 9.75 to 11.71, over 20%. MicroStrategy on the daily, bottomed at 290, topped it and up massively again today, massively, right? Much bigger moves on Bitcoin adjacent stocks and products than even on Bitcoin, which made its

own massive move. Now you have to ask yourself, why? Why? What do you think? We're having a conversation here. Why do you think? Because without an ETF, institutions and big money still have to find other ways to gain Bitcoin exposure other than the ETF because they can't buy spot Bitcoin. We had Mike Alford on here yesterday, massive Bitcoin bull saying his prime brokerage for his fund, he can only buy so much spot Bitcoin. So he's buying GBTC. That's what's happening here. Spot Bitcoin massively up on Coinbase during US hours, not a short squeeze. That's A. And then, well, if I can't buy Bitcoin and I don't want to buy GBTC, I better buy MicroStrategy, Riot,

Marathon, the miners. That's what's happening here. People are just scrambling right now in the United States to gain exposure to Bitcoin asset class. This is not some stupid fucking bear market bounce. This is some real deal bullish price action and buying right now. PirateXPirate says, should have front run the fuck out of BlackRock. Yeah, this was your chance. We get to come out here, front run the news. What other rally here. This is something that's happening for a fundamental reason and all of the data backs it up. This is not the old traders trading, right? Not just traders doing trading things. This is real institutions, real people buying Bitcoin to get ahead of an ETF approval. But I'm curious,

do you guys think that an ETF is going to get approved here? Do you think so? Do you think we see an approval? I mean, this is the other narrative happening right here, right? Just learn the BlackRock ETF decision precedes Bitcoin halving by two months, April 2024. Strong tailwinds ahead for Bitcoin. Don't think I've ever been more bullish. I don't even know who this person is, but he can talk dirty to me. On top of ordinals and taproot, I'm shifting my narrative to Bitcoin over ETH. Numerous catalysts favoring Bitcoin right now. Halving cycle, ETF. But guys, I still don't think we see the real, I'll just be very clear. I do not think

we see the real bull run until sometime after the halving. As exciting as all this is, I think this is like enough to push us, you know, into the thirties. And then we figure it out. Then we figure it out. But this is what I was talking about before when I got distracted by myself, because I'm a person who has ADHD and my own comments can distract me from my previous comments. Most of you who have been here a long time know that my content and strategy has massively changed. The reason I have a large Twitter following, the reason I have 40,000 people on the newsletter originally was because I traded all day and I shared those trades and was generally pretty successful. Right. I spent my time trading. I spent my time writing about trading. I spent my time writing lessons about the psychology and trading.

That's what I did. Well, now I'm really fucking busy and I don't trade much. So my strategy now is look for massive moves where I think they're going to happen and plow all in when I have that opportunity. That's what I do. I wrote a thread about this. Now I'm going to go find it. I'm going to go find it because I'm winging it until Chris shows up right now. Right? We're going to get there. We're going to get there. Hold. Holding. Okay. Here's what I said on Twitter. I'm going to share this because I think it's somewhat relevant. It'll articulate what I'm trying to say right now better. My best calls have always been major levels that are obvious but terrifying to retail when they hit. I don't day trade anymore. I just patiently wait to plow in heavily for major swing trades. If you guys have been around, there's been a few that I've had that are pretty epic.

My ETH orders are at $82. This is December 6th, 2018. ETH was way up in the hundreds, coming down from $1,400. I was saying $82 all the way down from $1,400. People thought I was a fucking insane person. It bottomed at $ bucks for the entire bear market after going to 1400. I'm not saying I was some kind of genius. I'm just saying that if it gets there, I had a whole bunch of bids and that's it. And I'm waiting forever, right? So that's what I've been saying. Three months, people have been bothering me. Hey man, post more trades, post more charts, post more altcoins. No, I just have Bitcoin bids at 25,200 and that's it. That's all I need. That's all I need. Right? Listen, this one, like I said, this is not bragging. I'm trying to illustrate that

you will make all of your money investing, trading by just being super patient and plowing in at that perfect moment where everybody's afraid. Because what happens in all these moments is everybody's bid it, but they move their orders. They get terrified and they panic. You guys might remember when Elon Musk smoked weed, Tesla was going to zero. I wrote a lot of threads about this, but you guys can remember. But this is what I had done at the time. Literally 180 bucks. I had, Tesla was up here and I said, I'm bidding 180 again. I had sold a 380, had been in from 30 bucks, bought at 180 again, continued up. Why? Because people were literally saying Tesla was going to zero. The guy had smoked weed, nothing left. It's over. Those are the best times to buy. Do you remember Bitcoin on March 12th, 2020? I've told this story a million

times. Bitcoin was like 6,100. And I was like, I'm going to bid 4,000. It's never going to hit, ever. No chance. I woke up in the morning, price was still $6,000. I was like, man, this is depressing all the way down to 6,000. It's over COVID. We're all dead. Went to my computer, realized that price had gone down to like 3,800 and my bids had filled and I was at 6,000, right? Sold most of it, right? But those, the trades that you plan way in advance and when you don't deter yourself, don't talk yourself out of it, those are the best trades that you will ever make in your life. I see that Chris is here.

I'm sick of talking. What's up, man? What's going on, man? It's been a great day yesterday into today, hasn't it? Yeah, absolutely amazing. Well, like I was just saying, I didn't identify many trades of late. I just said since March, I'm going to buy Bitcoin if it goes to twenty five thousand. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, it's it's just been, you know, again, you've got everybody's very, very emotional.

You know, I've been talking about this since since June, the start of the accumulation, really pushed it there in November when we hit that November low and people arguing this entire time. And then again, kicking in when we just had this multi-month pullback that we had here into this wedge and people just freaking out saying, oh my God, it's got to go down. It's got to go down. And you can't convince somebody, right? I mean, I think it's the biggest thing anybody here needs to understand. You can't convince somebody, right? I mean, I think it's the biggest thing anybody here needs to understand. You can't convince anybody. You have to be open to listening and potentially learning. Nobody's going to be able to make you change your mind, though. It's just kind of the way things are.

But here we are now, right? And now we're on our way toward, you know, I'll say, you know, 40, 50,000. I think so, too. And so I was just laying out the entire case, which is pretty data driven, that this is very spot driven. There's this ridiculous point desk article I showed that says shorts liquidating, short squeeze. There was literally only 30 million in liquidations, which is one of the earliest of what we see in a major short squeeze in this market. For sure. For sure. Yeah.

This is literally, this is people buying on Coinbase. We saw it. Massive uptick. People are buying MicroStrategy, Riot, Marathon, GBTC, anything they can to get exposure if they can't buy spot Bitcoin. But this is people buying spot Bitcoin because they think an ETF will be approved or they think that the tide has turned here after last week being the deadest low of sentiment we could have ever had. Oh,, man, people were falling over themselves to be more dramatic, I guess, than the last person, you know, and I always say, and it takes time if you're new to trading, it takes time to really understand what it means, but that kind of, that level of just negativity there, as you had already been pulling back for

a while, pulling back into support, I mean, at that point, there's no reason you should be thinking about shorting if you're seeing that. Yeah. I want to jump into the charts right now since that's why you're here. Obviously, I see you got Bitcoin there. Everybody should right now. But talk about what you're looking at. I'll talk about what I'm looking at because, man, it's pretty compelling. We are massively overbought on the four hour, by the way. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't be surprised to see some, uh, pullback if anyone's looking for a dip. Yeah. But you know, like, like I told, you know, uh, like I always say to people, man, you know, when Bitcoin gets like this, it happens, you know, man, it happens at bull markets and you just, you can't jump in front of a, of a freight train. Right. So you really, if you're going to short,

you really have to look for some real indication on the little bit lower time frames that it's really going to do it. But right now, I mean, again, we've got this full over accumulation structure here from back in last June, you know, and then again, you hit this last point of support here back in March, rallied up. And so then this is our jump across the creek, which is basically you break out above your supply. And then a lot of times you'll get what we call a backup to our jump across the creek, which is basically you break out above your supply. And then a lot of times you'll get what we call a backup to the edge of the creek. And that's just a return to test that supply as support, that resistance as support.

And that's all we've done here. I've been talking about this for months. I said, this is all we're doing. Volume dropping off, a lot of overlapping price action. We're wedge shape here. And then boom, you know, just shoot on out there. So right now I've got this Elliott Wave count as a 1-2-1-2. So this interior 1-2 has a wave three minimum expected target right there,

43-2-42. Interestingly, interestingly, let me show this. You talked about GBTC. I was talking about this yesterday as well. So I've got this point of figure chart here. And if we look at that accumulation structure and look at that thing yeah and we apply we apply um uh point and figure charting to it you know the uh to get our targets on this the way we do with wyckoff i mean this gets us a target you know right now with this

current size here gets us around a 51 target on gbtc and again that's equivalent to you know, right now with this current size here gets us around a $51 target on GBTC. And again, that's equivalent to, you know, 50,000 area for Bitcoin. So, I mean, you know, again, people are going to sit here and they're going to argue, they're going to tell you why it can't happen, but you know, things are where they are. I mean, I mean, I agree. Listen, taking a quick look at the weekly, obviously the weekly hasn't closed, but like, yeah, we lost that 200 MA to me. That was sort of the max fear moment. Yeah. Right. And I said that last week and I talked to Cheds about it, but here's that 25,000 to 12. I've talked about it since this candle that that's the retest I want to buy. I might not get it. If I miss it, fine. I have a large spot position, but that's all I want. That's my, that's my trade. Right. And

finally it came back there. It took a few months but now look at this weekly candle right now beautiful it's not closed yet but up through the 200 ma through this 28 600 and i i mean i basically just to simplify it i said listen there's like two ranges and we've been between them you know there's this massive range up from the 65 ish high down to here and we're now back in that one let's see if if he can hold. And then there's the below. And I didn't really, wasn't interested unless we were back in either of those ranges. But this just now looks like we're in low, high, higher, high, higher, low, higher, high, potentially higher, low. And this is just booming. And if we get this bullish hammer followed by a candle that looks like this, I'd be very surprised if we go bearish. I mean,

look at this daily yeah yeah absolutely that candle yesterday first of all broke the 50 ma the 100 ma and descending resistance and closed almost at the top of the entire period and volume now is as high for today with 10 hours left as it was yesterday yep for anyone who's doubting this is on bit stamp but for anyone who's doubting, this is on Bitstamp, but for anyone who's doubting the validity of this move, volume is increasing right now. Yeah, yeah. Like you said, man, you know, it's the same thing I put out yesterday as well. What I saw was that, you know, was that this is, what do you call it there, spot buying. You know, it's not a short squeeze.

It's people stepping in and buying and the only people that step in and buy with this kind of determination this kind of ability to do so are usually the very large professionals so you're talking like you know uh hedge fund types um you know uh trading desks institutions stuff like that this this doesn't this isn't retail buying here. That's the big thing to know. This is not retail buying. There isn't a bunch of $100 orders. Yeah. Yeah. And Bitstamp, for anyone who doesn't know, and sadly, well, you, I think, you always charted Bitstamp from the very beginning because when we started in 2016, 17, there was no really exchange

with that level of history. Yeah. Yeah. That was what I used to do all the time. Yeah. Right. Cause when you wanted to look, you got me on it. When we started looking at weekly and monthly charts, if you looked at like Coinbase, you'd get like four months. Yeah. Right. So if you wanted to look at any history and trading view, it was really Bitstamp. But sadly, SBF is the one who came on my podcast and said, listen, if you're looking to buy the good Bitcoin, the real good stuff, not the corner crack, but the good stuff, we go on Bitstamp. This is where the big boys are buying and selling and doing their OTC deals as well. But you look to Bitstamp if you want to see what the institutions are doing outside the United States, maybe Coinbase, which we saw the uptake there. But I mean, to see increasing volume with 10 hours left after a candle like that yesterday, I just don't see this as a top.

Oh, yeah, no. I mean, it's doing everything you want to see. You want to see when you're looking through, people often get confused. They're like, oh, they just draw these random lines. And they're like, oh, look, it was just a false breakout or whatever. But what you're looking for is you're looking for a large candle spread. You're looking for a spike of volume as you're getting to that breakout. And if you're getting that, then you can be pretty sure that it's a legitimate breakout

and price is actually reversed from whichever way it was going and it's heading the other direction. We're seeing that. We're seeing that through the wedge there. You can draw this larger term kind of channel right here where you get it. That's the big one there. You've got it through the daily pivot. I mean, these are major areas of resistance that you're getting exactly what you would be looking for

if you want to legitimize a breakout. Yeah, okay. So here's the next question. Are you even daring with alts right now? Actually, you know, I've seen- Up in USD, up in USD. Well, so, you know, I'm looking at it and I think there's some possibilities there.

If we jump here to the Bitcoin dominance here, you can see we broke, we've, you know, we've ran through all the pivots here. Once we broke out again. Large candle spread, large spike of volume breaking through that resistance, right? And we've done this. And I think we've still got a little bit further to go here. It looks like we've got one, two, this is three. So it looks like we're going to keep on pushing up a bit here. Dominance now at 51.13 there now. i you know if this count is correct we should be

nearing an end but we are not there yet again this looks like uh and by the way against bitcoin dominance so we got to discuss this it's something that i've used forever but i've always said charting it is a bit of a iffy proposition because obviously support and resistance are created by trading and humans and levels and those levels don't exist as that result on an asset that's not traded. But also stable coins are now $120 billion of this market. And in past cycles, when we were looking at Bitcoin dominance, there were no stable coins. You were trading only into Bitcoin pairs for altcoins. So anytime in past cycles, somebody wanted to exit the market, they had to go from an altcoin through Bitcoin, which meant a Bitcoin buy and then out or they

would sit in Bitcoin. That dynamic has changed. So for me, like I'm just finding, first of all, if that was a shit coin chart, I'd be ready to getting ready to short it. So maybe that's a good thing for altcoins because it would be massively overbought. I just I'm struggling to find the value. Oh, and the final point against Bitcoin dominance. And listen, I still look at it. I literally have it up. I just kind of in my mind, I'm like, this is nonsense.

Yeah. But now I literally lost it. I'll get there in a minute. No, is that it's reactionary. This isn't telling you what altcoins is going to do. This is what telling you what all coins just did yeah yeah i mean point dominance isn't telling you that all coins are about to crash bitcoin dominance is telling you your alts are already fucked yeah yeah so you know yeah you know a lot of people are watching it so you know we kind of keep it going with it um you know, as we do it.

I mean, we can kind of sit here and just kind of pull this back here. And there's kind of the count is what we're looking at here. Big thing here is that we've got this range. You know, again, we've got this range. And here we go trying to, you know, break out into this resistance over there. And there's a major vacuum gap over there. I mean, I've had the same chart for Bitcoin dominance forever, right? Yeah.

It kind of broke here. It didn't go down when you would have thought. But I mean, this is a massive gap over there. I mean, I've had the same chart for Bitcoin dominance forever, right? It kind of broke here. It didn't go down when you would have thought, but I mean, this is a massive gap. So yeah, I mean, maybe dominance is going up to 57% or something. Maybe that gives us information right here. I mean, it doesn't take, I just don't feel like I need to look at the Bitcoin dominance chart to know that right now you want to be looking at Bitcoin and not necessarily focusing on all points. But then then again that might be the point of maximum opportunity if you're actually investing i we have charlie in the background too chris i want all three of us to talk what's up charlie how are you man yeah very good thank you learning to surf at the moment in the summer months do you guys know each other no no no dude charlie's awesome yes so charlie chris is my mentor actually he's the one who taught me

all this crap way back in the day but charlie do you have an opinion on bitcoin dominance no no not overly no no not at all so um a slight opinion on bitcoin but not on on that uh give me your opinion on bitcoin and then we'll we'll keep going down this rabbit hole. I've only just come in, so you've probably already covered this. We want to know your opinion. That's fine. Yeah, it's nice. It'll break out that trend line.

Potential to run up to $34,000, I'm looking at. Some nice story supporting the move that we've had over the last couple of days i still think from a macro perspective the sec until they actually approve these etfs how how much further is it going to have to run whilst the sec have got a growing pile of etf applications on their on their desk for now, I could see the potential for a run up to 34. Yeah. I'll take 34 all day. Are you able to share your screen at the moment or not? If you can, right down there, present. Yeah, I would love to see what you look at. Is this the trend line that you're talking about that I have drawn here? Or are you not talking about a diagonal? Yeah.

Yeah. Seems to be the obvious one. As we we were pointing out volume actually higher today than yesterday almost already which is somewhat uh insane if you look at it i'm going to bring your screen up though so we know what you're talking about we all have the same lines look at us we all got the same lines that's the 50ma right uh yeah the uh if i come out to maybe the weekly chart here it was a lovely pullback and support classic technical you know break and pullback but really the sat 34 000 area linking back to those early those lows of early 2022 simple stuff but that's what i'll be looking out for there as far as because i don't know how far it's going to have to run at the moment with the the regulatory side of things that's going on so i'm not sure you know how far it will run before it runs out of steam again so i'm looking at it from that perspective maybe next

year in 24 i mean i tend to agree that uh even if you just zoom out and look at the four-year cycles like this is sort of the pre-halving run that we get and then we'll probably get some news and a pullback eventually and then the big the real party starts in 14 15 months i i mean i agree with you yeah yeah i i think um yeah we need that what that wall of worry a little bit for people to carry on thrown in just when they think oh i see this is the time and and it sets them back a little bit again and but it really it's yeah from a macro perspective when those big institutions really get involved there um via those etfs then that could be a bigger game changer but like you said that could take a while yeah i'm not expecting anything to happen anytime soon

not with the sec on a on the rampage at the moment i create yeah i mean chris thinks we can go higher we were talking about before you kind of missed it. But I think 34 on this move is a very reasonable target. I mean, Chris, could you agree? So kind of a 34 and then a pullback. Then we see. I like that 34 level, though, that you drew there. What else are you looking at right now, Charlie? I mean, I know that you're not primarily trading in the crypto and Bitcoin market.

So I'd love to get your opinion on macro. Yeah. So we've got the pain trade um the stock markets s&p so i'll quickly go over to the likes the s&p nasdaq nasdaq's were up 30 whatever eight percent this year s&p's hit 15 just got some basic trend lines on here i'll turn those off for the time being um i do think that with the S&P breaching the August 22, August of last year highs, it may want to pull back here. I've just got this on a weekly chart for now. And likewise with the NASDAQ breaching the March of last year highs. Again, they look like they've had a great run and certainly could be in pullback mode. But when I was last on your

show, we were discussing that first month of the year following a negative year last year so january was up greater than five percent and whenever we've had a january up greater than five percent on the back of a bear market the previous year we've always had positive returns and the average return has been over 20 and then of course bank of of America came out last week saying, ah, we've just now officially back in a bull market here for the S&P, having risen 20% off its lows. And statistically, something like 90, was it 92% of the time they said,

12 months later, the S&P continues to progress upwards of another 20%. So I'm fairly bullish, but don't get me wrong, we could be putting a pullback in any time. But for the longer term, I'm still staying on that bullish side of things because there's too many bears out there as far as I'm concerned. I know the Association of American Investors didn't look that bearish that survey last week, but when I'm putting the feelers out there it still feels in the trading community like there's a lot of bears out there and when you look at the

underweight positioning with institutions as well um we've still got that wall of worry there hey chris what do you think yeah no i mean i you know again i've been talking about you know for all the markets really since uh j June and then October, November of last year, you know, we've been talking about it. And pretty much all the markets, it was this mid-August swing high. It was the same one here on the, this is the E-minis there for the S&P, but the same things at 25,000 level on Bitcoin. You know, it just, the Dow, the Dow was the first one to hit. I think it did it back in January or February. But yeah, this has been the one thing I've been looking at because this gives us basically a three-wave correction here. And so when you break out above that second wave,

that says, okay, this third wave is complete. So if we've got three waves down, then ultimately, we should be looking to break out higher. Now, how do we do that? There's, you know, there's multiple ways we can do this. We can get an ABC down here and then an ABC back up toward the all-time high and then five more waves back down to the low. That gives us an LA wave, what we call a flat correction. And man, that would just really tear some people up. Everybody looking to go long around the all-time high, get shut there. Come on, Dan, you're looking to, you know, to go short here as it, you know, just kind of pierces this swing low and then, you know, pop up back the other way. So we could do that. We could potentially see a triangle form here. So it's just a series of three waves down, three waves up, three waves

down through his up, you know, consolidating that could take us through the end of the year into next year. Um, but ultimately, you know, if, if, if we've got three waves down here, we're done, then we should be looking, you know, around that 56, 23 kind of level based on the height of that, um, of that correction. That's kind of how we do that with, uh, you know, with fourth wave. So yeah, I love where Charlie said there are too many bears, but that all of us come in here talking bullish about new high in the short term yeah in the short term i i would i would like to see a pullback uh whether this last few days is the beginning of a of a pullback we'll have to see but even i and i'm you know I'm long the S&P, but so I'm willing it higher. But even I sort of think, yeah, it could probably do the NASDAQ probably coming at some point.

But overall, I think the main point that I'm wanting to see is I still see from a technical perspective, like you just said there, Chris using your elliott wave um analysis there um it still looks like this isn't just about to completely roll over so i'm not i'm not buying that yeah i i guess uh i happen to just see i'm trying to find the news but powell obviously i think congress yesterday and senate floor today or congress today, Senate floor tomorrow. But you said that there's a consensus that they're not done tightening. You said every single Fed president, governor, everybody thinks this is a pause. They will continue to tighten. So does that affect your narrative or the idea that this could go up?

I mean, look at the chart. It doesn't seem like it should affect it. But we're not seeing rate cuts priced in at the end of the year as much anymore as we were even a week ago correct and um well the market is already pricing in two further hikes now so yeah that's the market's priced that in we've hardly collapsed have we since uh last fomc last week so um i think the market's absorbing that. And yeah, we're going to have a pullback. And then the narrative, the news will accompany that pullback. But at the moment, the market still seems to be performing pretty well. Ultimately, it's going to bite. Those higher interest rates are going to bite at some point. But for now, I'm going to stay, remain a bull.

Anything else you're looking at outside of NASDAQ't be in bitcoin what else you got yeah the next the last one is the dollar so there we go you knew i was gonna go there oh um what's interesting with the dollar is i mean i i use the the euro dollar as my proxy obviously euro is 60 of the dollar index anyway so if i bring up the dollar index just very quickly um look at euro there bring up the dollar it's an upside down it's an inverted dollar index so coming back to the euro the euro has only done 600 pips range so far this year its average range is 1700 pips we're massively under on the ranges at the moment i'm not saying that we're going to go to 1700 pips range but even if we got to a thousand pip range if the euro breaks to the upside that puts it at one uh 1.15 if it breaks to the downside of the range so far this year

puts it at 1.01 gives some nice levels for people to look at if we break out of that on that euro dollar i am going to be looking well north of well 114 towards 115 and i'm trying to be quite conservative there that would only put it at a 1000 pip range so i think the dollar and by by proxy the euro dollar is certainly something worth looking at if the euro breaks to the upside there we've got the euro the dollar will come down to i'll bring up the chart um we'll be looking at the dollar coming down to the 100 level my line down here um but really we're looking you know realistically more like 97 98 on the dollar if if that happens to if we see the euro break to the upside and so you have to be yeah you have to be somewhat bearish the dollar if if that happens to if we see the euro break to the upside and so you're hopefully yeah you have to be somewhat bearish the dollar to be as bullish on stocks as we're discussing as

well so i mean it aligns yeah christy i saw you moving some charts around over here what do you got yeah you know um yeah i mean i've got i'm looking for this just to be a corrective uh pullback here uh you know dropping on back down here to around, you know, probably there around 100 points, 0.7, 100.8 or whatever. Get the rally back up, and then we get that breakthrough, you know, breakdown through this support here. And then I've got minimum expected on this wave three coming down right there around 95.8.

You know, again,.8 you know again ultimately you know this is the the futures chart here the ice exchange but if we're looking at the dxy you know it's what i've been talking about we continue to have that rejection once twice three times now here at the weekly pivot um and then we've got this support here you know we're coming down i'm looking for a breakdown through that and you know at, at least down through the S1 pivot, probably right there around that 93, 94 range before heading even lower. I don't see anything going on right now that suggests that we should be worried about, you know, about the dollar kind of regaining a whole bunch of strength or anything. I think Charlie's got it right there. You know, that euro, I think, is going to continue to strengthen.

Dollar is going to continue to drop off there. The rest of the, you know, the dollar pair charts, you're looking at cable, you're looking at the loonie, you're looking at the Aussie, you know, the yen, all that stuff. I mean, they look pretty good overall. The yen's the only one having a little bit of there, but you've got the euro does like 57%, 58% of the weighted value of the DXY, and then you've got the yen there at about 12%, 13%. So it's a big, even if the yen's having a bit more difficulty, the euro is still the main driver, basically, of the DXY. So yeah, as long as this kind of resistance continues to hold up here, I'm not even concerned one bit about

anything. It's got the hunchback of Notre Dame weird left shoulder, but it does look like it's putting in a second shoulder there on the right and could potentially be dropping. So here's the key killer question. First for, I guess we'll call it smp is the bottom end oh we got charlie muted sorry sorry we had you muted there yes you said yes though i saw your lip yeah yeah read my lip yeah i'm sticking with what we've been saying since earlier this year definitely we need some pullbacks for a healthy market markets need to breathe in and out uh but i'm i'm maintaining that so some of you might want to fade my view there now i've gone publicly on saying this but um yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna maintain that for the s&p yeah

chris bottom end i think it's in yeah yeah you know again same thing i've been saying um since last year uh you know again using wyckoff uh it looks it looks pretty clear like that like there's a bottom in there across the market so um yeah and then the dollar of course looking topped out there so yeah then the next question bitcoin bottom in charlie i say yes by the way i've been saying bitcoin bottom was in since the day it happened by the way the day after ftx i said that's since the day it happened, by the way. The day after FTX, I said, that's it, we're done. So, our bottom's in. I think bottom's in on...

The bottom from where? I mean, the macro bottom of this cycle. Was the drop below $16,000 when the FTX news happened? Is that the lowest we're going to basically ever see Bitcoin again? Yeah, yeah. I mean, the bottom, like, forever moving forward. Never is that below lowest we're going to basically ever see again yeah yeah i mean the bottom like forever moving forward never is that below it yeah yeah yeah chris yeah yeah you know again same thing i've been talking about i believe it's in i believe we've been having accumulation since

last june what we did here was just you know again back up the edge of the creek looking for a rally up higher here obviously obviously and i know charlie and you agree with the show anything can happen guys none of us has a crystal ball none of us can tell you 100 that there's definitely not going to be a lower low against any of this but um the odds seem significantly against it at this point with the uh with the charts and the structure and and everything else we're looking at i think there's one thing to add here like you quite rightly say hinting out there chris is one thing having analysis and there's another thing trading the analysis you know you still got to have your risk management in place you've got to have your stops and all of that so we can debate whether we think a market's going up and down you

can't just go and buy that you've got to look at risk reward and you've got to look at all of those concepts so um yeah trading your analysis is a lot more difficult than just saying whether you think something's going up or down yeah because you always get stopped out when you're right or you forget to put a stop when you're wrong i mean come on we all know this works you guys would be best friends i'm telling you chris and charlie you guys need to hang out because you talk about risk management in the same way and those are the same lessons that i've heard for both of you well guys that's it i really appreciate both of you joining i really love this format man it's it's nice to have the banter to go over charge collectively i think it's uh really great

everyone else i'll be back obviously tomorrow morning 9 a.m eastern standard time we'll have the round table and uh 10 15 and 20 minutes we'll be on twitter spaces as always crypto town hall charlie chris thank you guys guys so much really really a pleasure thank you nice to meet you Chris let's go let's go