The Wolf Of All Streets - ETFs Gone Wild! | 30k BTC - Will Altcoins Catch Up?

Episode Date: June 22, 2023

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ETFs gone wild. It's the only thing anybody seemingly is talking about this week since BlackRock filed last Friday. If you guys don't get the ETFs gone wild reference, then you're probably not in your 40s like me, but Girls Gone Wild videos were very popular in my younger years. Very, very, very popular. But there's been a lot of sort of misinformation and misinterpretation of what all of these different applications mean. We've obviously seen BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco, Bitwise, Valkyrie, but some of these are just refilings or restructuring of the way that they're filed. And so I wanted to get James Seifert on today from Bloomberg to discuss what each of these ETF applications actually means, what the implications are, how long it could be till we see them, how they're different.

We've got a lot to talk about here. And then of course, on the back half, we've got Korean Joo who's going to come on and talk about his favorite three charts and trades right now. Take a look at the Bitcoin crypto market. Now that we're over 30K, can we hold it? And what does it mean for altcoins? We got a lot to do, guys. Let's go what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. Yeah, guys, it's been a crazy two weeks now in crypto. It's really only about 11 days, actually. We went from the absolute worst imaginable week, arguably the worst news we've ever gotten in the history of this market, which is saying a lot, back-to-back enforcement actions from the SEC against Binance, then a day later,

Coinbase, to flipping to apparently the most raging bull market in the history of all time because of BlackRock, proving once again that not only markets, but crypto market participants are wildly schizophrenic. Just the way it is. And now it's the best bull market ever after apparently last week being the worst bear market ever, everything going to zero and it's over. But guys, ETFs are complex. We're all sitting here waxing poetic about what it means and what each of these companies is doing. And we're seeing a lot of sort of misinformation, as I said, being discussed online. So as usual, what we do here is we just go get an expert to actually understand this stuff. I've got James here from Bloomberg, man.

How are you? Hey, how's it going, Scott? Thanks for having me. You're welcome. We were, before we got on, we were extolling the virtues of standing desks that neither of us like to sit. If you guys don't know, I have not sat in my office in over two years. Yeah, I have a, I got a sit-stand desk at home.

I have one at work and And then I'm actually, my girlfriend's moving to St. Louis. So I'm here to move her in and we're trying to get her a desk. And I luckily saw one of these on Facebook Marketplace. And here I am with a sit-stand desk somewhere that I'm not going to spend a lot of time, but I'll be able to stand while I'm here. It's a huge win either way. So listen, you've become a very, very popular person in the last week and a half as everybody in crypto tries to understand what the hell is going on with these ETFs. And yesterday I saw, I pinged you, I think two days ago, maybe we saw this Valkyrie news that Valkyrie was filing for an ETF. And I kind of scratched my head.

I was like, I'm an investor in Valkyrie and they've had ETF filed for years. Right. I kind of laugh because it's not like this is some new product Invesco, Bitwise, Valkyrie. These guys have been in line for a long time. Some of them have pulled their applications or not. So what is the actual status here of each of these, if you don't mind just sort of running through them? Yeah. So there's two types of filings that we need to watch out for. So the big news when BlackRock filed, that dropped on Thursday. And what that was, it's basically a prospectus, like a filing to the SEC saying, we want to launch this fund, this trust, whatever. And this is what's going to look like. Usually you'll have the ticker in there. When it gets closer to launch, that's where you see all the fees, all that stuff, right? All the basic stuff of what the fund is actually going to do. And there's tons of companies out there with those prospectus filings for Bitcoin ETFs of varying types. Some people send new updates. The Valkyrie one you're talking about is an update to a prospectus. And the main changes were, we got a ticker, ticker BRRR, which is so good. Money prints go brr. But also they changed their

exchange from NYSE to NASDAQ. So it's likely that that conversation was ongoing before this BlackRock news came out. If they were already on the up and up and okay with NASDAQ to file this prospectus to ultimately list. So that's my guess. Kind of irrelevant.

But that's what prospectuses are. There's a whole bunch of them out there. For the most part, prospectuses don't get withdrawn unless the SEC asks you to. You got to also differentiate between the 40 Act and 33 Act funds. The 40 Act funds are like those first futures ETFs. The way that process works is you file and then you have 75 days and then you launch if the SEC doesn't tell you to withdraw. A lot of different leverage, Bitcoin, leverage Ether, all the Ether futures ETFs, those were all mostly 40-act and the SEC told them to withdraw. These other ones, the spot Bitcoin ETFs, for the most part, these issuers haven't withdrawn them. They're just kind of sitting on the shelf,

basically waiting for what we call a rule change. And that's these 19B4 filings. BlackRock's 19B4 dropped on Friday last week. And that basically was where we saw that the reason BlackRock... Because if you listen to anything I said on Thursday or Friday morning or anything I was tweeting and writing, it was why does BlackRock think they have an edge here? And that 19B4 filing is what you file usually are partnership and exchange. And exchange is actually the one that files it to the SEC and says, can we change this rule for these reasons? And that's where everyone sees these delays and denials and approvals for all the spot Bitcoin ETS or spot crypto assets before this. I think there were up to 37 of them now total. So that's the 19 before process. That's the ones that have

to be active. Then we also saw Invesco and the Galaxy file a 19B4. We saw WisdomTree file a prospectus. Bitwise on Friday or Monday filed a 19B4. So they didn't change anything in their prospectus, and they partnered with NYSE. CBOE was with Invesco and Galaxy. So basically now all the three major exchanges have an active 19B4 filing. The only one with the spot market surveillance sharing agreement with some person or

some company which we're all going to assume is Coinbase for now. So that's the main difference between everything that's going on here. It's 19B4 versus prospectus and what's going to happen here is theoretically assuming this BlackRock filing does have some type of edge and the SEC does allow it, which is definitely

not guaranteed. I want to make that very clear. If you read anything the SEC has said in the past, they should deny this likely based on everything they've written in the past. Because it's not materially different and there's nothing here that is new

as far as why they've rejected them in the past. Yeah. So the thing they keep saying, and you'll hear this word from me and tons of other people over the coming weeks, is a market of significant size. What the SEC has always said is they want a regulated market,

which everyone hears they want regulated exchanges, which there's no way for crypto exchanges to come in. To be regulated. Because they're not securities, and now they're claiming they are securities, and there's they accept that bitcoin is not it's very complicated but then they say another way is a surveillance sharing agreement with a market of some significant size um so that you can make the art i could i could argue that uh coinbase which i believe was on one of your spaces they talked about how it's a u. dollar. If you look at the US dollar exchanges or US dollar pairs of Bitcoin, it is a market

of significant size. And the SEC has wavered on what they consider the market to be when they approve something. So they approve CME futures ETFs under that 19B4 process. And they basically said the CME futures ETFs are the market. So therefore, they are a market of significant size because they're the only market as far as they were concerned. So there are some ways they can do that. There's a lot of wiggle room here for them to either justify a BlackRock approval or to deny it outright and say it's just another attempt at the same thing that we've seen before. So it really comes back into the uncomfortable hands, I will say, of the SEC if you're a crypto enthusiast to put a lot of faith in what's going to happen at the SEC. But I want to talk about with the 19B4,

you made a really important sort of clarification, which is it's more about the exchange than about the actual product, right? This is the exchange that needs the rule change to be able to list. And what's then materially different and why Valkyrie clearly made a change is because they moved from nisey to nasdaq and black crop was the only existing one with nasdaq until valkyrie moved correct correct uh that is correct yeah so the only actually ironically so valk i talked about the the futures etf to prove for cme um under that that 1984 BTFD by the way guys they got rejected if you think BRRR BRRR is funny they were going for

buy the fucking dip the first time and just got buy the fuck it so the actual first ETF to get approved under the 33 act this 19 before process was from Tucrium Tucrium hashtags but also Valkyrie had filed their XBTO futures ETF

beforehand, and that was with NASDAQ. So they actually got a futures ETF approved with NASDAQ, but they already got BTF listed. There was no reason. They were debating launching XBTO and doing something different with the way that it was structured, maybe altering it, doing something like more marketing type, but I don't think they ever ended up doing it. I assume that's what they were doing. So they haven't launched it. So ironically, Valkyrie does have a relationship with NASDAQ already because they got that approved with them. But as you said, BlackRock is the only one that had the active spot Bitcoin ETF filing. Now all three have active spot Bitcoin ETF filings, but like I said, the NASDAQ BlackRock 19B4

filing is the only one that says they have an agreement to go into surveillance sharing agreement with a spot market. Perfect. I have this article from Cointelegraph. This just sort of points to what I'm talking about. BlackRock spot ETF renews optimism, sparks wave of new filings.

Largely, these are not new filings to your point correct they're either like uh these perspectives they've been sitting there this entire time yeah so basically there's been at least two new filings the bitwise has refiled the 1904 and uh invesco galaxy also filed in 1904 wisdom tree was just basically an update to an old thing but we consider a new filing because they're obviously filing that... Mostly what they're doing is they're probably updating risk disclosures, all fine language that the SEC might've had issues with. I saw a bunch of tweets out there of people looking at the risk disclosure language about Bitcoin forks and all these things, saying BlackRock is starting to do this. And what people have to realize is in the TradFi world,

if you don't disclose every single little potential risk that you could do wrong, that you can cause to harm to your investors, like choosing the wrong fork in a Bitcoin and the one fork you chose doesn't go anywhere and the other fork is the one that becomes the main chain, that is a real risk. So anything in there, if you read through those, it's pages and pages of potential risk disclosures. That's what those were. And that's also probably what is being added to some of these prospectuses. I didn't dive into the WisdomTree one, but for the most part, they're just updates. The Valkyrie one, the only two things I noticed was the ticker and they moved to NASDAQ. And then if you scroll down, I noticed the risk disclosure page was longer. And then there's a few other things in there

that are probably changing, just all legal stuff in the background. But for the most part, they're just refiling, make sure it's fresh, making sure everything is going to be like rubber stamped, assuming it gets approved. But again, right now, NASDAQ is going to be first out the gate, assuming one of these does get approved. Which is a big- So funny thinking about that, because I'm thinking about all the conspiracy theories that I've seen online as a result of those risk disclosures that you just talked about. People saying that BlackRock is going to fork Bitcoin and that it's going to be fake Bitcoin

that's going to be in there and they're going to destroy the network and I mean, it's just the takes are unbelievable and I think it's just a bunch of crypto people who don't understand that you literally have to like, as you said, disclose everything. I think that's actually been the biggest point of friction between regulators and the crypto industry in general right is that the these kinds of disclosures

just have not existed with crypto platforms over the past few years and that's why gens are at all are so pissed off yes so the sec is supposed to be a disclosure regulator essentially and not supposed to be a merit regular meaning they shouldn't determine if an investment has merit, which I would argue Gary Gensler, the SEC, has kind of been doing with these Bitcoin ETFs, in my personal opinion. So I'll just leave that out there. But what they should be, what the SEC focuses on is disclosure. You need to disclose everything, which is what they want a lot of these crypto projects to do. And honestly, I think a disclosure regime of sorts would be extremely helpful to crypto talking about here's the unlocking, this is what the teams are going to have off the bat. All these different things that are kind of hidden and not necessarily put

into protocols and people are just doing. There's a lot of things that they could benefit from the SEC regime, which is hard. A lot of crypto people are cringing right now, probably listening to me say that, but they really could benefit from forced disclosure. And part of the industry can do that themselves, but people just be willing to get rug pulled and put stuff into products that are chains and projects that don't have a lot of substance to them. Yeah, I don't think that take has become particularly controversial anymore, right? I think that Bitcoiners and crypto people

used to think that they could exist in the Wild West, opting out of the system, self-regulating. But after, I don't know, Voyager, BlockFi, Celsius, FTX, etc., I think people realized that it would have been helpful to have some disclosures from those companies, right? I mean, Voyager had the claim that they were FDIC insured. That was very confusing to people. Nobody knew what they were doing. Any of these companies were doing with your money. If that had simply been disclosed, a lot of people would have avoided problems. So I do think that

the SEC doing that side of their job would be very helpful for retail investors. But the problem is they're just punishing a bunch of people and hurting retail. Yeah. The fact in hindsight after protecting nobody, I think that's what gets people so enraged. Yeah. It's funny. Gensler keeps coming in and like going after people,

like after everything's blown up and people have lost all their money or GBTC is at a massive discount and you won't approve like the conversion that would solve like 99% of the issues here. Um, but yeah, that's basically what's happening. And he's, it seems like he's been asleep at the wheel for some of this, or he might've had some of it on his plate and it's just letting the ecosystem blow itself up. So, um, it's definitely been a PR problem. Yeah. I think it's a problem, but I think, uh, you know, purposefully vague works very well for the SEC right now, right? Just kick the can down the road and let us kick ourselves in the face repeatedly.

It seems to have worked quite well for them, to be quite honest. I do want to talk about GBTC. You just brought it up because I think a lot of people are surprised or confused as to why the discount is closing so rapidly on GBTC, right? It was before the BlackRock news. it was in the mid 40s. We saw it as high as 50%. Now, last I checked yesterday, it was 34, 35%. So GBTC has wildly been even outperforming spot Bitcoin, right? I mean, GBTC, Bitcoin up 5% a day. GBTC would be up 16, 17%.

Do you think that's optimism that GBTC actually gets converted? Or do you think it's just there's this general vibe that if ETFs are coming, that's going to be good in some way, shape or form for Grayscale? I think it's both of them. So I think it's people pricing in or thinking that if ETFs are coming and they're going to get approved, then Grayscale and GBTC won't be too far behind. And when GBTC actually starts going through the process of approving or converting into an ETF, I would expect that discount to collapse even further. The problem is we just don't know how long that's going to take, or there's no real guarantee that Grayscale is going to do it. I have a lot of people that are

very smart in this industry that I talk to who are convinced that GBDC will never convert to an ETF. I'm not one of those people, but that's obviously still a risk. I think they're dead if they don't. Essentially, Grayskills PR would be absolutely atrocious. Nobody would want to use them if they don't convert. And then also, I feel like there's all these hedge funds and PE funds. I'm sure you've talked to people who are like, they're trying to crack this nut. They're trying to get at what now is a 35% discount. So if they all of a sudden say they're not going to convert to an ETF after all this public jawboning about how they would, then I feel like the courts and somebody will figure out a way to get out that value. So I think it's a lot of just optimism on ETF conversion, people taking

grayscale at their word like I would. I think they will convert. Maybe it won't be immediately when the ETF happens, but they want to be as close. They have to. If they want to be a going concern going forward in the crypto ETF system in a forward-looking basis, they can't just let GBT sit there as a trust, in my opinion. Such a shitty situation for them though, because this is their cash cow. The fact that it's this massive trust, there's basically no way for people to get their money out. There hasn't really been redemptions. They're just sitting there collecting this massive 2% fee. And when they convert to an ETF, that's going to go to a couple of bips, right? I mean, especially if there's competition, there's five, six, seven, eight ETFs. So they're going to have to do it, but it's effectively going to destroy their largest cash business.

Yeah, it's exactly right. And ETH, which will be far behind, is at 2.5% too. So that's also another big cash cow, but nowhere near the GBTC levels. We think right now they're charging 2%. I could see BlackRock or somebody getting approved and going in the 60s, 70 range. And then obviously other people are all, there's a ton of issuers out there trying to launch this. I think ultimately we've had 22 or 21 total issuers trying to file for a spot crypto ETF since 2013. Some of those won't be around anymore. But I mean, if even a half of those or a third of those come in or a quarter, that's a lot of competition. And one of the ways in the ETF world that people compete is they'll go differentiated products. So I'm sure some products will have what we call very

small creation units. So you'd be able to take out small denomination of Bitcoin. That's what happened to the gold. So if you have just like $5,000, you can take your money out and get gold delivered to you. So in this case, it would be Bitcoin. For the most part, they keep those numbers way higher, like $200,000, maybe in the millions. But somebody will come in and do a small denomination one. Somebody will offer lower fees. Somebody will promise, like will be offering, they're going to lend out their underlying Bitcoin, which some of the crypto native people will hate.

But for the most part, one of the main ways is that people are going to cut fees. Yeah. One way or another, that's going to happen. So before I let you go, let's talk timeline. There's people who are saying, oh, this is going to get fast tracked. We're going to have a Bitcoin ETF in a month. Gensler, this is going to be his out where he can say, see, look, guys, I did something good, but it's BlackRock. Then there's the other people who are saying eight-month timeline comes right with the Bitcoin halving. We're going to go to $7 million Bitcoin overnight, right? I mean, there's all these crazy sort of theories, but what is the actual timeline here? We know that the SEC can continually kick these down the road multiple times, even after that happens. But what do you think we're looking

at here? Yeah. So the way these 19B4 applications work is first they're posted NASDAQ, NIC, CBOE. They file them, they post them on their website, and then they send them to the SEC. And a clock doesn't start ticking until that hits the SEC register. So it goes on the SEC website, and then typically, I think it's six days later, it hits what's referred to as the federal register. And then after that, so after that happens, once the SEC acknowledges this application, there's a clock that starts ticking. And it goes 45 days and they have to prove, delay, deny, 45 days, same thing, 90 days, same thing, and then 60 days. So it's a total of 240 days after this thing hits the federal register that it has to be approved or denied we think if they are going to approve this kind of one of the

i'm i personally have a pet theory that gensler might be looking as a way to like give everybody a bone because he's looking at potential losses with the grayscale lawsuit and the ripple is not guaranteed the sec is going to win either which if you had asked me three years ago, I would have been like, SEC is going to win. 100% chance of SEC victory. Yeah, yeah, yeah. To be honest, even the crypto space was cheering against Ripple back then, and now everybody wants them to win. Hey, I'm not a Ripple fan.

I'm not a Ripple fan myself, but I kind of got to love Ripple taking it to them. You got to cheer for them if you're a pro crypto, pro Bitcoin type of person. So basically our view is if they delay at that first 45 day time period, then that's probably a bad sign. Typically they don't deny right off the bat at any of those things. They'll usually delay, delay, delay, and then deny, which is that 240 day time period. So that 240 day time period based on like prior stuff

would be sometime around early march i'm guessing right early march late feb depending on when it goes to the sec website you're saying that would be with the multiple delays correct the first choice where they can approve once you get delayed once it's not a good sign man it's not like you see them get approved on delay number three. Yeah. Well, sometimes it does happen. Sometimes they'll put in enough additive detail or more research or things like that to say, this is what we want. We get approved. Maybe they add more information to prove why Coinbase, again, assuming Coinbase is the spot market, is a market of significant size so they can add research, all this other information that the SEC could then back say, okay, we will approve. So it's not impossible, but it is pretty unlikely that if they delay first,

that they're going to then approve. So the first day, which we don't know for sure, but I'm estimating is probably going to be somewhere around, like I have an estimate of 819, but that's obviously, I don't know when this is going to hit the SEC website. I'm just completely guessing. There could be, that could be 8-19 plus or minus like 10 days would be when we... And the other thing is ARK and 21Shares. So 21Shares is a big crypto issuer in Europe. They filed and their decision date wasn't until 6-29 for their first time period, right? So they were supposed to get a delay uh delay deny or

approve on 629 the sec came out on 615 and delayed it so the sec yes exactly so there's there's there's precedent for them to come in and delay or deny or theoretically approve way before that 45 day time period and my one pet theory i theory I have, which obviously it's conspiracy theorists a little bit, is that maybe not. I think it's reasonable. You kind of mentioned it. I think Gensler's looking for a way that he, like you said, he's facing down the loss of Grayscale. If he comes out and gets this thing approved and says, you judge your whatever opinion you say, and this doesn't matter, maybe the court, the case gets thrown out before a decision is made because they then approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, then he doesn't

take a loss. Because I think we really do think he's facing, he's looking at a loss in grade scale. And absent this BlackRock filing, we thought they would, the courts would just send it back to the SEC and say, you can't deny for those reasons. And they would just deny for some other reason, right? But it's harder to do that with BlackRock in mind. Yeah, exactly. And BlackRock, if any other issuer had filed this, I don't think there would be any as big of a commotion, right? No pressure. We've seen, like you said, we've seen tens of companies that have filed these things in the past. Nobody would care if it was some no-name, but BlackRock is the biggest name that could possibly file this, correct? I mean, there's literally nobody bigger. There is nobody bigger. If you look at the US market,

BlackRock is 33% of the assets, and they're one of the biggest ETFs for trading. So Vanguard is next at like 28%, I think, last I checked. So they're pretty big, but this is not something Vanguard would ever do, I don't think. Vanguard doesn't even have a gold ETF. BOGO is famously anti-gold. But this is something we fully expected BlackRock to get on board with. I just didn't really expect them to be leading the charge here. All right, man. I know you got to go. You have a meeting. I'm going to keep talking for a few minutes here before the next guest. I really appreciate it. I'm sure I'll see you on Twitter

spaces like 47 times in the next six days or something but uh i do appreciate the clarification and your theories on what's going on it's really good to get an expert's opinion on this bit so thank you guys everybody follow him should be in the description on twitter really great information you and eric i love both you guys so thank you very much man yeah thanks for having me good chat what's up i do reckon i recommend everybody get a standing desk that's all i'm saying do you see how good we the two of us look standing up? It's impressive. It's impressive.

Sit down, you start to fidget. You guys used to make fun of me all the time when I was sitting down, actually. If you don't remember that, I would fidget and adjust my lower back. There's been some pretty crazy takes here, guys. Still speaking about ETF before we move on. Peter Schiff, of course. Peter Schiff had to come in speculators are piling into bitcoin sending its price soaring above 30k because they believe

more speculators will buy if another bitcoin etf or crypto exchanges is created but by the time either of these tasks are completed all the speculators will have already bought i i literally don't even understand what he's trying to say this is the same guy who like launched an ordinal nft like a week ago it's like bitcoin school now i hate it but i love it but what's happening there already are bitcoin etfs outside the u.s you can buy gbtc at a huge discount plus it's easy to buy bitcoin directly there's no need for an etf that just adds unnecessary custody fees i don't know what to what what rocks he's smoking right now but uh this is obviously not not ideal from uh from peter schiff pretty

bad takes to be quite honest lynn alden had some takes also as well black crocs exchange traded trust would just be a rapper for bitcoin kind of true it's for people entities who want some bitcoin price exposure and a registered security like in a brokerage but it's worse than the real thing can't cuss it can't bring it with you globally. Okay. I think we all agree with that. Then this person who's conspiracy theory here saying that they're going to kill Bitcoin. She says, sure, they can get 5% of it and make a liquid trading vehicle and brokerage accounts. Bitcoin ETFs are strictly worse than holding the real thing. I think we all agree if you believe in self-custody, buying an ETF is not the same. They're not getting my Bitcoin or the Bitcoin of millions of other people. I think that that's absolutely true, but all of these arguments are dismissive of the fact

that there's plenty of people who literally just want to buy Bitcoin in their brokerage account and can't, and are going to do that via an ETF. Now, I see KJ's here, so I'm going to jump to him and then we'll talk about Jerome Powell here at the end, man. What's going on, man? How are you? Hey, good morning. You're in the car. You're in the car. I like it. How's it going?

It's going good. Going good. What do you make of this market right now, man? Bitcoin absolutely raging 25 to 30K in a matter of days. Yes. Wrecking alts, obviously. So what are you thinking here in general? So, I mean, last last week or at least over

the weekend to me it looked pretty clear and i saw you actually tagged me in a post regarding bitcoin dominance and uh versus bitcoin adjusted dominance including stable coins and you know frankly looking at both of those charts it didn't even really matter because they both were painting the same picture that bitcoin was going to be the strongest and um you know at least on uh see i think it's valuable to look at both because the one that i'm using that has the added stable coins is coming into an interesting place but when you look look at just like btc.TC.D, that one looks like it has more room to go. So in my opinion, it certainly looks as though Bitcoin's going to continue to lead a little bit. Overall, it's an interesting spot. Let's put it that way, because Bitcoin pumped from at least uh we're over 30k now we

haven't broken clearly uh past resistance yeah yeah i'm sure this is the this is the dominance chart i will say though that if this was some kind of shit coin i'd be ready to short it yeah but not that rsi matters on something that's not traded but if you look this is the historical high on rsi ever on bitcoin dominance this is the highest high on RSI ever on Bitcoin dominance. This is the highest. It's basically the most overbought it's ever been. I wish... Oh, look at that. Damn. He's got it on the screen in his car. That's fire.

Okay. Now we're working. Here, let me remove mine so you can blow that up. I'm going to see if I can blow just you up. I'm not sure how to do that. But yeah. Okay. I can see it. So it be potentially how much looking can't hear you though unfortunately we can't hear you either do a double top here on uh on dominance or or in the scenario where it breaks out and like like you were saying with btc.d you could short that um it's very easy to structure your risk reward but if it happens to

continue going up then you're looking at another five points in that direction mostly oh i think it could easily continue up i mean if you look if you're charting it's like 57 something like that and that's why i said like i don't really chart dominance and trade against it because there's no traders on there it just gives you an idea and to me like it doesn't take a genius to know bitcoin dominance is up if you look at the market, right? I mean, Bitcoin, even when it was down at 26, it was flat and alts were down like 20%. I mean, let's just say positionally, for me, when I look at trading in all, regardless of which one, be it Ethereum or even something smaller, like Solana, I want to look at

the USD chart first, but I'm always going to look at the Bitcoin chart as well. And if it doesn't look bullish against Bitcoin, then it doesn't make a tremendous amount of sense to be trading that unless you're really looking at it from like a zoomed out view. And what both of these dominance charts are telling me is either this is going to top now or it's going to top five percent higher and if bitcoin is looking healthy um and continuing to break out and dominance goes up and you're in an altcoin yeah it's not the greatest because you're quote unquote up in usb but you're losing bitcoin value so you don't necessarily want to you're still making money you're still making money number one number two when that does reverse you're going to make money rapidly um so i think it's it's still a good time

to take a look at at some of the more fundamental plays that you may like um and by you i mean you the audience whoever whatever whatever you've researched and what you believe in, it's not a bad time to start loading those. I mean, so yeah, my opinion is not different, right? So we've seen in these massive bull roads, it's like you want to be in Bitcoin for a month and then there's just like five days or seven days where I'll absolutely rip and catch

up and surpass it and then the money flows back into bitcoin really hard to time i think from a trading perspective unless you're excellent at this right for for most people but this is one of the times where if bitcoin even let's say it rips up to 32 33 your alts go down another 10 15 against bitcoin they're still up but at some point bitcoin's going to chill here right and when we're in a general bull rally when bitcoin chills people are saying all coins are dead i think we are going to have these same similar just absolute rips from altcoins on the way up here i agree um well we were talking about this on sunday because i was on a conference call in my discord group with like four other

partners and we're all looking at it and we're seeing it the same way and we basically came to the conclusion that look at this point in time you're going to want to have at least 50% of your portfolio your crypto portfolio in bitcoin potentially more like 50% is even an aggressive posture but 50 to 60% and then you could have some altcoins. But if you're all in on altcoins and Bitcoin, I mean, you're just not capturing as much value as you should. And you're taking a lot of risk. Not to say that it won't pay off, but it's going to be a little difficult for you to stomach those things. If you have some emotional components where you see just Bitcoins going up and your coins not really doing anything, the easiest way is to hold some Bitcoin and then keep an eye on those dominance charts.

And when those start to top, you can start to rotate some of that Bitcoin into other plays. I mean, that's probably the best way to go about it. I agree. And you should always have that sort of base of Bitcoin, no matter what, even in those sort of all quite moments. But so you talked about people maybe having their fundamental plays, the things they like the best. Are there like two or three things that you're watching? I can bring up the charts that just that you're interested in right now. Like where where would your focus be? Is it is it large caps? Is it really small caps? You all in Pepe? I have no idea what people are doing right now.

So it's a little it's a little bit of both in regards to Pepe. I have no idea what people are doing right now. It's a little bit of both. In regards to Pepe, me personally, some people aren't going to like it, but I don't believe it's going to do the Doge Fractal. Why would it? A lot of people are... I'm seeing those comparisons, and the reason

why I don't think it's going to do what Doge or Shiba Inu did, at least right now at this moment, is the nature of how quickly it went up right it was the fastest and at the same time you can't discount that the fact that it went to a billion dollars quicker than anything we've ever seen is is notable you have to respect that but at the same time when you look at the structures of a play like doge or shiba inu those took years at least shiba at least a year on binance doing nothing sideways completely being cornered by god knows who but the supply was under control uh and that's what price action of like chopping people up for a year does same with doge it gets

the market gets cornered market makers are shaking shaking people out and nobody has it anymore. And then when the pump is, when it's ready to pump, they just send it to the moon. But this one just, it just went off like a rocket. And you have so many people that are up so huge that it's going to be difficult for it to make a new high. Now, would I love to see it happen? Yes. Am I going to short this? No.

No. But I don't, I'm no but no but i don't i'm not certain that i don't know we just had like this period where meme coins went so crazy that like i feel like it needs to cool off a bit and you're going to see more of a rotation into like quote unquote good projects so yeah i think this is where you go bitcoin to the majors right i mean you know you start looking at ethereum and things that have heavier volume i mean i'm looking at the pepe chart right here right now i mean even on this move up for our rsi which you know everybody has their own thing almost at 90 and now it's setting up for some like seriously overbought potential bearish divergence if this

turns down so that doesn't mean like the top is in i would just say that that looks like it's ready to cool off and a lot of these that pump pretty hard look like they're pretty ready to cool off yeah agreed um so stuff like i like you know kind of vanilla types l2s like uh avax and soul somebody we were having a discussion not to flood anyone's bags but like people were asking me well why wouldn't soul do the same thing as something like tezos um or near protocol or something like that like what well specifically tezos where you look at that chart where it just was like down only versus bitcoin and i said you know the difference is like i know people that are only on so there are people that there are communities that are only soul nft

traders uh people that you know like it has a built-in community already there are people that there are communities that are only soul nft traders uh people that you know like it has a built-in community already there are telegram groups that i'm in that's like only dedicated to soul i can name uh at least a handful of soul nfts or soul meme coins whatever the meme coins didn't do too well but they at least have that and something like tezos like i don't know any i don't know any Tezos maximalists. I don't know any Tezos NFT projects. And I'm just using Tezos as an example for why I prefer something like Sol. At least the community has somewhat been stabilized and established.

And I'd rather ride with something that has that as opposed to something that's like purely speculative BC dump fest coin you know which yeah I like Sol basically above 15 bucks I like Sol Sol and AVAX I like AVAX same deal their founder Amir Gunn

he's I think he's on the CFTC or he's working with them in conjunction with them he has some sort of affiliation with the cftc um avax has the same kind of deal where you have different telegram groups that are just specifically dedicated to avax i can name uh at least a handful of nfts coins on there and uh i like solid avax as far as mid-cap coins um newer more speculative coins it's also i think it might be a mid cap already anyway is this thing called caspa ksp yeah i keep hearing people talk about it super

bullish started it but it's really bullish uh a lot of my friends who do better fa than i do love it um so it's really innovative stuff but me i just watched the chart and it's like basically quietly pulling a chain link where like the rest of the ones i'm looking at right here it's like it's like what bear market you know like casper is very strong so you know it's one of those things that you want to find those outliers and and over the past five years or at least in the last cycle chain link was one of them and there was this coin called qnt that was also one yeah it's like it's like nobody has it everybody knows the name and it just keeps going up and people are like waiting for it to go down and that's i

i don't know i think aspa might be the one that does that this time so yeah it's over two and a half x off the lows just i mean i'm just looking at qco in june i mean just in may if you do about yes if you do about coin so maybe there's a someone with longer uh that c has the full history i believe there you go oh there we go let's see yeah look yeah yeah it's like up only you know like yeah this literally looks like the chain link chart used to which i used to joke like there was no more bullish chart than chain link if you looked at the weekly there was never a lower low ever until the like this last sort of run of bear market yeah it's pretty strong man so so that one that one i like and then like i'm looking at like uh

uh like newer like dgen kind of ai coins like imagine ai was really innovative and cool um you know there's stuff launching that's like going to be you're kind of following that that model of like the ai born type of stuff and you know at low market caps i don't mind speculating on those things this casper charge crazy yeah they go up i'm still stuck on casper you're talking about ai i'm just looking at this chart like up only breakout above the 50 ma here on the daily four candles retested this breakout before the movement it's going on using volume like i don't even know what it does but i know it's bullish that's all i know yeah i mean it should go this looks like it wants to go right back to that all-time high of 0.042 it's sitting

at 0.026 now. That's pretty good. I don't know where I buy it. But yeah, that's a good shout because I've never looked at that. And there's just these few charts you see, man, and then nobody's talking about. And they're just crazy. But this is on real exchanges. Yeah.

Yeah, no, it's pretty legit. It's pretty legit. I wanted to ask you, what do you make of like the relationship between stocks and Bitcoin? And how are you seeing that right now? Because like it it seemed as though we had, quote unquote, decoupled. You had a lot of people saying that I'm not a big believer in that. And I believe the reason why we didn't go up while stocks were ripping was because the insiders knew that the FCC was going to come for Binance and come for Coinbase. And basically that was being priced in by us lagging while stocks were running.

And then once they delivered the final blows of FUD, then you kind of take off. But now you're starting to see stocks, at least, I mean, they look great, but if you look at SPX, we've had maybe six red days in a row. And now Bitcoin is staking off. It's quite confusing, especially for the person that's trying to compare both charts and trade them, as opposed to trading the chart that's in front of them. I think that we have this weird relationship. It's kind of common with correlations. When things are bad, everything becomes correlated, right? You have these black swan events, these major bear markets, people are selling off, there's no liquidity. So things become very correlated.

If you look, I don't have it in front of me, but I have it somewhere. We've actually been very correlated with stocks when things are going down, but very correlated with gold, but very correlated with gold when stocks are going up, which is interesting because that's not exactly where you want to be. I agree with you, though. I think that stocks continue to rip. And even though we hadn't seen the Binance and Coinbase suits, we knew that the SEC was ramping up. They sent the Wells notice to Coinbase, all these things. So I think legislators are fighting with the SEC. So I think that, yeah, in the United States, people are just scared to touch crypto. Everyone I talk to is institutional. It's like, we can't touch this until there's clarity. We're out. I talk to my friends. It's like, we can't touch this till there's clarity.

We're out. I talk to my friends. We're closing our funds. We're moving out of the United States. So I do think it makes sense now that it was kind of like that FTX flush out, right? Binance and Coinbase announced we saw that one big kind of push down, but it wasn't that big. And now you get any hint of good news on these ETFs and we absolutely rip so i mean i'm really not surprised i just don't think that historically it's that correlated of an asset i think we just get consumed with that when shit is bad when when bitcoin's ripping and

on the way up nobody's talking about how it's correlated to stocks just not right you know like at 69 000 nobody was like this is only because of the stock market you know yeah absolutely yeah so i think it's a thing on the way down well dude that was great alpha i appreciate it i know you're driving got to go places hey i need to ask you a more important question though how do you get trading view on the screen of your tesla browser and just go in the browser to train you put it in the browser yeah i logged in logged in and I got my watch list and stuff. Dude, I don't know if that's safe, but I'm totally going to do that.

It's the kids while they're in the backseat. Teach them how to trade. While the car drives itself to school. Alright, man. Well, next time I want to definitely see some of your charts, but those are great ideas. Solana, Avax, Casper. I had to pick up my son, and I totally based on that,

and he's in upstate New York, and so I'm like, pulled over to his side, and You're good, man. I'll let you go. Appreciate you, man. Speak soon. Bye. Yeah, guys, that chart is actually pretty crazy. Look at that Casper chart. I do want to really quickly talk

about Jerome Powell, because it's important. As you guys may know, Jerome Powell sitting on the floor of Congress yesterday is yearly testimony, talking about obviously the basics, inflation and such. But cryptocurrency was a very big part of that conversation, which is pretty shocking when you actually think about it. He's going to be on the Senate floor today for his meeting. We talked about the fact that there's 100 Fed governors. First, I think the most important thing to note about Powell, let's step away from the crypto side of it, is that he has not changed his tune at all.

England, I think today or yesterday, just raised rates by 0.5 bps. Their core inflation in England is at historical highs since the 1990s or something. So they have not been able to tame inflation in England at all. 7.2%, I believe, pretty crazy numbers. And so while we focus obviously on what's happening in the United States, it's hard not to also realize that inflation and economies are global at this point. We need to be watching what else is there. But I mean, talking about the pace of rate hikes, Powell said the Fed will continue to raise rates. I mean, he said that. We are going to raise rates, but at a more moderate

pace than before. He said that the timing of additional hikes will be based on incoming data. Now, of course, the data could change and we might not see hikes, but we are seeing the market now price in again, a 0.25 hike in July, 70% or something like that. He said that the labor market is still very tight, but there are some signs that supply and demand are coming into better balance. He said the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions, but she went economic activity, hiring and inflation. And about bank failures, he said the Fed must be careful not to harm the business model of smaller lenders. And as for inflation, Powell said the Fed understands the hardship that high inflation is causing and that they remain committed to bring inflation back down to their 2% goal. Still far away, guys. He said that reducing inflation is likely to require a

period of below-trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions. In other words, very important, guys, to note that all sounds like a lot of gibberish, but the fact is this guy is not wavering. He's just not. And like Mike McGlone always comes on and says, don't fight the Fed. Well, the Fed is being very clear about their mandate, hasn't never changed their tone here.

So if you think we're all of a sudden just going to pivot here, there's no reason to believe that. And that's why I say I will die on the pause is not a pivot hill. It's a pause. Once you pivot and start lowering rates, you don't then start raising them again. So we still know that they're likely to continue to raise here. But he also had quite a few interesting things about crypto.

Here's one of my favorites right here because he both compliments it and insults it at the same time. Let's take a look. And digital assets in the US has got a market cap of around $1.1 trillion right now. It's been there for a bit. Do you acknowledge that this asset class has staying power in the US economy? It appears to have some staying power. Of course, that one $2.1 trillion was, what was that a year ago? A lot higher. Yeah, yeah. It's had some volatility in large measure due to the lack of legal clarity. And so hopefully this committee will help that quite a lot here this summer

with at least two bills, one on stable coins and one on market structure. And it'll be clear, not just for Congress, but for regulators, including Chairman Gensler and obviously market participants, whether they're forming the ideas or investing in the ideas or participating in the activity. All right, so he admitted there,

admitted that this asset class is here to stay has staying power if you're wondering that is the all familiar now voice of warren davidson the guy who made the amazing quote about hotel california i talked to him two days ago that will be out on sunday so i recognize that voice anywhere but he is the one who filed the sec stabilization act to fire gary gensler so obviously very pro crypto very pro, very pro-getting these regulators under control. So not a surprise that Warren Davidson would be asking questions exactly like that. But there were some other very, very interesting takes here. I mean, he said that the central bank, as that article just said, needs to take a robust role there you see it right here in overseeing

u.s stable coins there you go this is what he said about stable coins he argued the need for strong central bank oversight in stable coin regulations he said that payment stable coins are a form of money that the ultimate source of credibility and money boo is the central bank he believes it would be appropriate to have quite a robust federal role in regulating stable coins, right? Pretty big comment there from him. He's saying stable coins are here to stay. They're a real form of money. And then, of course, the obvious, which means they need to be under the purview of the Fed, right? But we also know that we're going to be talking about and marking up at least two bills in the house talking about stable coin regulation and market structure for cryptocurrency. That's coming in July.

We are probably going to get stable coin regulation very, very soon. Now, whether that means they outright dismiss all of them or they choose USDC as the winner because it's United States based, who knows? But this issue is now coming to a head and it will happen. And I think we can all agree that we definitely don't want the Fed controlling it because that looks a lot like a central bank digital currency. But they did ask Powell about central bank digital currencies. And this was actually really interesting. And I would tend to agree with him. Powell said that the U.S. is a long way from establishing a central bank digital currency. He said that if the Fed were to set up a digital dollar, the central bank would

not manage retail accounts. Instead, such accounts would be managed through the banking system. That means Jerome Powell is saying if there is a central bank digital currency, it will be strictly between the Fed and the banks. This will be an institutional product and retail will not use or touch a central bank digital currency. That's actually the right framing, because the biggest fears that we have around the central bank digital currency are that they basically force us to use the digital dollar. We get a China type system where they airdrop us some money and say you need to use this on groceries and shoes by next week or it's gone, where they take our taxes directly out of our wallets when they want to stimulate us. They stimulate us. And we have no cash, no privacy, no nothing. You guys have heard

me rant about central bank digital currencies a million times. Well, if we take Powell at his word and he's been pretty honest about his intentions, whether right or wrong, that is not going to happen in the United States. And when you think about a central bank digital currency being released in the United States, you've got to realize the minute that thing goes out, there's no putting that cat back in the bag. Extremely risky would take major testing, a ton of research. So I really don't think a central bank digital currency is going to be a thing in the United States anytime soon. Guys, obviously 20 minutes till Twitter spaces. We're working on trying to get Patrick McHenry, the head of that committee on spaces either today or another day.

But obviously we'll be talking about all of this there. Huge thanks to James for breaking down everything going on with the ETFs. We have to keep talking about these things, guys, because it's really important. Right. And Korean Jew for hitting us with the on with the ETFs. We have to keep talking about these things, guys, because it's really important, right? And KoreanJu for hitting us with the trading view and the Tesla. I don't really care what he said about charts. I just now know that I'm going to throw my trading view up on the Tesla and hopefully it'll drive me safely

while I'm trying to degen out and see what Bitcoin is doing on my trading view chart. Of course, guys, OKX, right? OKX. I'm going to be at Silvergate with them. Silverstone. Silvergate. My God, I just got a banking Freudian slip. Silverstone with them checking out all the McLaren stuff in about two weeks for the Formula One race. But literally, the best way that you can support me, assuming you're not in the United States, of course, is just go sign up for an account and show them that you're watching and that you care. That'd be awesome for me. Otherwise, guys, that's all I got. Tomorrow is Friday, which means inevitably we're going to rant about all the

news of the week, probably bring on a guest, maybe do some trading. I hope you guys are enjoying this format where we kind of do a guest at the beginning, talk about news, bring on a trader at the end. I'm enjoying it. That's what really matters. But guys, until tomorrow or until 20 minutes from now on Twitter spaces, see you guys. Peace.