The Wolf Of All Streets - Ethereum Is About To Skyrocket: Get Ready For A Massive Supply Shock

Episode Date: June 5, 2024

David Duong, the Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, joins me to explore the latest in crypto. Chris Inks from TexasWestCapital will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital David Duong: https://x.com/dav1dduong ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Ethereum supply on exchanges is currently at historical lows, and we have an Ethereum ETF coming, some projecting it could do up to $4 or $5 billion in inflows in the first six months. What happens when this massively increased demand meets this reducing supply? I think we all know what should happen, but it's just a theory. And I have one of my favorite guests, head of institutional research at Coinbase, David Young, here to discuss this and a lot more. One of my favorites, as I said, always to have here, get a ton of perspective. Can't wait what he has to say about ETH and the rest of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. It's fun for me to get

to talk about Ethereum. We talked about Bitcoin and spot ETFs for felt like seven, eight, nine, 10 months, years, decades. And out of nowhere, we get the Ethereum spot ETF approvals and now just waiting for a timeline for launch. But that gives us endless opportunity to debate what's actually going to happen when they launch, will they see any demand, will we see inflows, how much. Basically, the same conversation we had about the Bitcoin spot ETFs, just with a lot less knowledge and a lot less people talking about it. To me, that's an opportunity I'm going to bring on David. We're going to talk about it.

Ethereum spot ETFs out of nowhere, man. This wasn't supposed to happen. I mean, we actually did think that the odds were more in its favor. I think most of the market was discounting the idea, but we thought that the timeline was warped because a lot of people were expecting us to follow the exact same pattern as what we saw with the Bitcoin spot ETFs, except for the fact that we learned from the spot Bitcoin ETFs already. So if you were an issuer, for example, you weren't going to make the same mistakes or exclude or include the same information that you did the first time around.

The timeline was already going to be somewhat different. So I think that was the mistake that a lot of us made. Yeah, I think also just the political wind shifted so fast in advance of those dates that sort of aligned in a way that maybe a lot of us would not have expected. But interestingly, this time we had no pre-marketing campaigns. We didn't have all the issuers competing and educating RIAs and getting ready with the expectation. I would say that 99% of investment professionals still don't even know what Ethereum is, much less that a spot ETF is likely coming. It was different with Bitcoin because that obviously was already somewhat of a brand name. Yeah. And I think that's the challenge because it was already going to be

an uphill battle because as you say, I think a lot of investors they can easily get their heads around the idea of bitcoin's store of value or the idea of bitcoin as digital gold but the same kind of narrative doesn't really exist for ethereum uh i think that for those of us in the know we can easily just say like listen it's much more programmable than the bitcoin network uh you have smart contracts you know all the things where like when you finally get into the space and you say, I get it. Bitcoin is great. I understand why blockchains are necessary, but can't we do more? Well, Ethereum is that more. And I think that that's the easy sell once you really get yourself acclimated to Bitcoin. But if you haven't gotten yourself to that step, it's really hard to get to

Ethereum. Right. So I guess that brings us to the question of how much demand will there be? This researcher who I don't know, KK Research, what did it say somewhere? K33 Research, Ethereum price poised for supply shock as ETFs may attract 4 billion inflows in five months. That's higher than I would personally expect, but Bitcoin also way outperformed from what I expected as well. But this will be significant, 4 billion inflows. And I believe that's still in context of ETH unlocking, that discount closing, that's $11 or $12 billion at current prices of sell pressure, like we saw with GBTC. So to net out 4 billion in inflows in five months, I think will be really, really exceptional.

Yeah, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. But certainly we saw that with the GBTC EFE ratio, for example, I think that that was closer to around 25% like EPE as a percentage of GBTC like AUM prior to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs for example if you look at what's been going on ETFs in Canada or other places the ratio is closer to about a sixth of where like the Bitcoin flows have been. So I think that it's really hard to tell, but the range is somewhere from 15% to maybe that 40, 50%. But it's probably like 50% seems to be on the higher end of that side.

Whereas I think the expectation of 25% seems somewhat more reasonable if we look at the ratio between ETH and GBTC. All right. Well, let's say that we get 25%, right? In theory, we know that supply on exchanges is exceptionally low. More people are staking. I think we'll have more people staking when they find out about ETH and realize that the ETFs don't have it, right? So there might be a lot of people that that actually steers towards it. Either way, we have this sort of supply reduction that we've been talking about here. It continues to go down. ETH can even become deflationary depending on the scenario. What happens when we add even a

billion or 2 billion of inflows from the ETFs? I mean, $4 billion in five months, it's not really that huge, right? I mean, even here, it's big, but there's a market that trades billions in a day, right? So is this supply shock and the demand going to be enough that we can predictably say price should rise dramatically? That's the thing about it. We probably require fewer flows to actually have a higher price impact because of supply lockup that we've seen in terms of not just what's going on with the normal kind of staking process that Ethereum has, but also everything that's happening with the restaking process and how much more tokens are being locked up because of the demand coming from that side as well of course like you need to kind of have a stake or liquid like stake in order to kind of then go on to restate um so some people are like well that already like pre-existed uh but i think that given how much is already kind of being locked up here uh the idea of more kind of being kind of shelved into ETFs for example will have a disproportionate impact on what we're going to see on each price so I think that's going to be the

important capture uh from the uh the ETFs themselves and keep in mind too that like you know there's a this argument going on from a lot of people who are already crypto native. I'm like, oh, but like, why would I want to put my money into an ETF if I can actually stake? Because I can't stake in an ETF. It won't be allowed. So like, why won't I just like put? I'm like, well, that's you because not everyone knows how to do that. And I think that if you give people the sell of like, this is Bitcoin, except that it's programmable, and there's smart contracts involved. I think that there are people out there who are not able

to stake who will still find that to be an attractive prospect. So we will continue seeing that there's money locked up from that source. Yeah, such an echo chamber narrative, the staking, obviously 99.9% of people haven't even heard of it yet. They're not making the jump to staking. But I do think over time that that will either be incorporated into the ETFs, because it will have to, or it will drive certain more, I guess, risk-friendly funds and institutions to go directly into staking. But I guess it remains to be seen. Have you seen a significant sentiment shift from the institutions you're working with now that this has been approved are you getting more questions about ethereum for example is it even on their radar

because it was not huge news yeah no no like we're definitely seeing it i i don't think that the inflows are definitely uh actually all there yet to be honest with you. I think that a lot of institutions were just as caught off sides as we were by the news. And so they're still in the process of chasing this. But we saw that ETH for the last few months has been woefully underinvested because no one expected this to happen. And now I think that it's still in the process of actually trying to attract those inflows. Yeah, I mean, you and I have talked about the bullish case for ETH ad nauseum while it refused to move for probably a year now. I mean, literally, you know, I just felt even slightly vindicated when we finally got something out of Ethereum because, you know, I've been saying it all along. It's funny. I have someone here. If you really know ETH will skyrocket, then you would put all your money into

it. These video titles are irresponsible. I have a lot of money in ETH. I've had it there. I've had conviction on it, but I would never put all my money into anything, period, just for the record. So I think that it would be irresponsible to put your money into everything, no matter what you think is going to happen. But I really do believe that ETH from here on out to top of cycle outperforms. Yeah. And I think that we need to look at the DeFi sector as well, because what I'm talking about in terms of the staking and liquid restaking, for example, I think that you're also seeing that there are all these new primitives at play. That's also kind of keeping people inside the ecosystem. And if you think that I would say crypto as a whole is going to break out and activity is going to increase,

there's going to be more DeFi, for example. And DeFi, for all intents and purposes, we see it in other networks, but a lot of it still lives on Ethereum. Then I would say the fundamentals are behind it as well. Robert Leonardus Yeah. I think that makes a ton of sense. There was this sort of narrative that Ethereum was stuck in the middle because everything would be built on Bitcoin that could be built on Ethereum and that Solana was faster and cheaper and stealing sort of the meme casino side of it. Do you think that that's true? And do you think that even matters if institutions all of a sudden have access to ETH

and they wouldn't have? I mean, if we get a Solana ETF, maybe that debate becomes more compelling, but I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. Yeah, if there was more progress on something like FIT21, where there's clear delineations of what belongs as a crypto, crypto as a commodity rather than crypto as a security, for example. And, you know, like there's a lot of rules around like what should be considered decentralized, for example, for a platform. I think if there was something like that, but for the time being, we still have seen like, you know, things like Solana called out by the SEC as like, for the concerns around like that

being a potential security, for example, in a way where I would say that's kind of stigma doesn't necessarily attach itself to ETH and Ether. So I'd say like that, from an institutional perspective, it's still a bit of concern in a way that doesn't, that isn't really kind of as big an issue, given that we now have the ETF approved. Yeah, I just can't see any others being approved, certainly under this regime. I mean, maybe if Trump becomes president and the Republicans take the House, even though I think the bipartisanship is a little overblown, maybe all of a sudden, you know, we get a much friendlier SEC and we start seeing XRP and Solana ETFs. To be honest, I don't think the demand would be there for them

right now. I don't think it really matters. We can talk about an XRP ETF. I think Garlinghouse was saying he thinks we see one in 2025. Who's going to buy it? Right. If you're an ETF issuer, that's your big concern. You still need to make money off

it. We're talking about ETF issuer, that's your big concern. You still need to make money off it. Yeah. So, you know, like we're talking about ETH being 18% of the market versus something like Solana being like 3% of the market. And it's not a bad size, especially in the crypto realm, but it might not be enough for an issuer to say like, you know what, let's spend a lot of money on the overhead and all the costs and the filings and the headache it actually will involve in order to get this approved. Yeah. These Bitcoin spot ETF issuers are not making money, by the way. I mean, some of them, I'm sure BlackRock is, I'm sure GBTC is still on their huge fees. But when we had those fee wars, they all knew that this was

more of a marketing tool than anything. They would never, at least for a very long time, would be underwater because they would need two, four, five billion individually AUM just to break even. So imagine if there's a fee war on something with less demand. I just don't see it happening right now. But I mean, to that end, we can talk about the Ethereum spot ETFs and what they will do, but we know exactly what the Bitcoin spot ETFs are doing. And they just had their second largest day of inflows period, 880 million. So anyone who thought that this was going to slow down with time, that it was just GBT selling in, I mean, whatever's happening, we get these big spike days, but we've had very few periods really of outflows, even when we dipped, they were short and we've

seen massive and sustained inflows. So this is still happening and the demand is ramping up. I mean, what do you attribute this to? Is it because we're still seeing this slow trickle of RIAs and institutions even coming online and doing due diligence and we never had a flood of them coming in all at once, which was expected? Yeah. And I think that because each of them have their own due diligence processes, each of them vary in terms of its time, I think that trickle will continue to happen. So as there's another unlock of RAs who will be able to actually market this to their clients, you'll see some of those inflows come in but unfortunately i think it's gonna work um within like the current macro environment which has gotten a lot more confusing

unfortunately so i think that's the one thing that uh it's going to be challenging because you know we've been on this will they won't they like fed terms of cutting rates now like we're in this regime where like bad news might be bad news to bad news being good news again. So it's I think that that's like going to be the hard part. I mean, can you dig a little bit more into that? Like what's your just general macro view at the moment? What's your stance on what's coming? I mean, I think a lot of people think they kind of keep it props to the election. Then God knows what happens. Yeah, that's going to be the tough part, because I think that we are probably seeing the US economy start to peak. But I don't think it's going to be like a big problem. I don't think we're going to get into a recession or anything

like that. But the question really becomes, will we see inflation start to come down faster than economic activity? Because that's what we really care about when we talk about stagflation and unfortunately that's the word we're operating with at this moment it's like the word of the day stagflation um and my guess is that probably like we will need to see three like inflation prints actually show like the inflation receding disinflation as it were uh for the fed actually feels comfortable with actually suggesting that it will cut rates again which will probably still put us somewhere in september and i think that that scenario is very very possible if not like completely likely um and then i think that probably as we get into like the end of Q3 into the beginning of Q4, we might actually be in a better place as far as activity is concerned.

Because we've got a lot of productivity boom kind of sources like AI, for example, a lot of the pandemic level kind of indoors like spending that didn't happen from a lot of companies like those had been delayed i think that probably will be recipients of those benefits uh probably now uh it's been like a lot later than we expected but i think that could happen probably by the time we get into q4 for example and then that could actually be a multi-year process. That could be like a productively driven, like economic boom that could last years. And I think if that's the case, the long duration assets still make sense. Yeah. So we obviously have Bitcoin, as it says in that article, it's crossing 71K. I mean, we're at 71,050 right now.

I mean, we're, you know, fractions away from all time high. You know, we barely didn't even make it, I think, to 74. So a couple percentage points. Of course, at the bottom, everyone was bearish. We're going back to 20. We're going back to 30. Now we're at the top and we're instantly going to 100. This is kind of what happens when you're trading in a range and you're at support, you get bearish and at resistance, you get bullish. That's why charts work and that's why humans trade the way they do. But I actually tend to agree with Novo here. As he says, Novogratz sees Bitcoin topping 100,000 if it regains March high. That would be

technically a blue sky breakout if we get above that high and sustain it. So I think it's ridiculous to stock about 100,000 if you're a technical analyst when you're sitting at 71 and there's the all-time high resistance right ahead but if you break that i i agree with him right i just think this might take time my base case starting in march was that uh we go back into the having cycle things get boring for the summer and we ramp up in the fall i have no idea if that will actually happen but um it would violate my base case slightly if all of a sudden we break through 74 here and it's June and we have a crazy summer up to 100. Never really happens, but I do think it sounds stupid, but if you're at 80, 100 is more likely than if you're at 71. Yeah, I remember a few months ago when everyone was talking about like oh it's price discovery

territory we're in price discovery territory and well yeah because we hadn't seen before that's not saying anything novel or unique we are price discovery territory once you break above all-time highs because you haven't seen it before um but the question is like do we want that as a community do we want to see something where it can break so quickly i wouldn't venture to argue no actually i would love to see a gradual move higher that would be excellent in my my view uh because that would be rational that would kind of make sense relative to like you know the supply demand at play here. I actually would be more nervous if we see kind of like leaps in those kinds of price moves. Yeah, I think the slow escalator up is really better for the asset class because we've seen when we go parabolic at the end of cycles that we way overshoot where price probably should be.

And then you're driven by FOMO and sentiment rather than fundamentals. And that always retraces and reverts to the mean. So I actually agree with you that I like that we kind of made a high. We can range for a few months, even with the fundamentals increasing hash for all of the reasons we would believe they can go up ETF inflows. And then that sustains a steadier rally. I mean, I would love that for sure. I mean, there's other things, by the way, that are still making new all-time highs. BNB, I don't know if you saw, broke through 700. Pretty wild. Considering all the problems that Binance had, that BNB token has made a new all-time high here. But I guess, as we talked

about even a year ago they had the most probably positive resolution to their issues with the sec that you could have imagined yeah this this cycle is really odd it's not like other cycles we've seen where you've seen this kind of like move from bitcoin and it stays there for a while and then goes to eth and then that like move kind of happens and it stays there for a while and then we're exposed to the altcoins here you're seeing these pockets of actually people i'm not sure if they're trying to capture like the zeitgeist of what's happening on those particular chains uh but it seems like we're we're kind of jumping around here and it's it's not it's it's kind of lumpy but it's not like like the typical cycles we're used to in crypto.

Yeah. And then just kind of one other story I wanted to touch on. I don't know if you've been looking into, but stable coins at the moment. Palo Arduino, the CEO of Tether, has expressed some concerns with Mika. Right. We all celebrated Mika, I think, because it was just something got done and there was some clarity and there was sort of this sentiment that even negative clarity is better than no clarity in context of what we were seeing in the United States. But we do have some pretty aggressive stablecoin legislation on the docket in the United States that would be highly problematic for Tether, right? If the most ambitious part of Lummis-Gillibrand was

passed, effectively, you'd have to be a bank in the United States to issue a stablecoin. Obviously, Tether can't do that even if they're fully backed. And now when they dig into Mika, they're realizing that there's a lot of problems here and they're working with the regulator to try to resolve those. But there could be question marks even to how Tether can operate in the EU with Mika now. So Tether kind of under fire here, not for any of the reasons we used to see, but just really having to work through the politics to be able to operate the way they are everywhere. Yeah, I mean, the first signal we got was when OKEx said that you weren't going to have those Tether pairs. And I think that people were wondering already, how are they

going to comply? And by the way, you now only have less than a month before you need to be meek or ready. Because for the stablecoin legislation, I think that it actually starts getting underway by June 30th. You have to be fully compliant by that point in time. I mean, I'm not saying it's going to be a picnic in the U.S. either. You know, we've recently heard that, you know, we don't want, at least McHenry doesn't want this to be attached to another bill because I think that the idea was initially that this would be attached to, I believe, like marijuana legislation.

We know how that ends. All of a sudden there there's oil regulations in there, and some politician somewhere gets a stadium approved. Yeah, and I think that was exactly his point. He was like, he doesn't want it to be contaminated by having it be attached as a rider to a different bill. And so he wants it to become his own independent thing, which I think is the right thing to do.

But it's tough because, I mean, there are concerns surrounding, well, what happens if an issuer like starts accumulating too much, like short-term T-bills, for example, like, you know, like I think Circle is trying to go the other route and say like, well, we need to like be able to do reverse repos, but the Fed isn't altogether happy with that. So what is the happy medium to resolve both concerns? Yeah. And he had some interesting points here, actually, outside of those and even specifically Tether. But the MECA allows stablecoins to be issued in a certain way in the EU. And you can read his quote here. They allow uninsured cash deposits as backing to normal fractional reserve banks. And he's

making the argument Tether is fully backed by safe treasury bills. Why would you allow uninsured cash deposits to be the backing in the banks that are issuing? So he said, uninsured cash deposits are not a good idea. We should learn from what happened with Silicon Valley Bank and another major stablecoin in the US, USDC unnamed. If a bank goes bankrupt, uninsured cash goes into bankruptcy. Stable coins should be able to keep 100% of reserves in treasury bills rather than exposing themselves to bank failures, keeping big chunks of reserves in uninsured cash deposits. In case of bank failure, securities return back to legitimate owners.

So there's securities rather than banks. I mean, he's kind of taking a shot at USDC here, right? Because we know that they had over $3 billion in Silicon Valley Bank. And if we hadn't have seen

that bailout, we could have seen that DPEG last. I don't know. You know, I think that they should probably have some cash. That's the problem.

If the argument for stablecoins is we can't trust banks, I don't know if we're going to win that one yeah um and i mean it's a it's a challenge with uh tether as well because i think like the march statement that they had still suggested they had something like i believe like four billion in secured loans which are loans that they make um with collateral that we are not fully that's not fully transparent we don't fully know for example so i think that's a challenge but i don't think that they're wrong about saying that there needs to be another solution in terms of hey if like a bank has all of their cash sitting in one place like like a Silicon Valley bank. Like, yeah, that is also a concern. Um,

and I think that's one that Circle has tried to address by actually doing precisely like, Hey, let's, let's put that into like, um, reverse repos instead. So we're actually lending out that money, like on a short term basis, but like, you know, we're getting treasuries in order to for that cash so i think that that's the resolution um for a lot of the stable coin issuers but i think that there's no clear i don't think there's like one solution that's going to satisfy everyone this year but like i think it's more about making sure that the what we that the solution that does get created is something that's fair, that's transparent, where we understand that people's cash is safe.

Yeah, I do can understand that Tether probably has a fear in the back of their head that's been sort of echoed by the industry that maybe this is somewhat of an attack on them, at least to centralize who can issue and use stable coins. And they've been ahead. They've survived. They're the biggest. They don't want to get cut out, right, of the biggest jurisdictions in the world. They have a great business model. I mean, all you have to do is basically take in cash and put that cash into T-bills that are earning above 5%.

I think Tether's market cap is something like $112 billion. Well, yeah, you're making like $6 billion a year. Like that's a great business model. Like I wouldn't want to like cut that out either. Yeah, man, if rates go back to a Zerp environment, it's bad for Tether. It's kind of the irony. Before I let you go, is there anything else I missed?

I mean, anything you're looking forward to in this cycle? I personally still think we got another 12 to 18 months of uh bullishness i don't see any reason right now to be particularly negative besides that people just get bored and think you know we haven't made a new all-time high in a couple months uh it's over i mean the lack of catalysts on a crypto on the crypto side, I think, has been tough. I mean, and I would say like lack of catalysts in quotes, because we actually had a lot of good news recently. Like granted, the SAB 121 veto. Yeah, that was kind of a downer. But like, I also wasn't entirely surprised given the fact that that's what was telegraphed by Biden.

But for the most part, we're in a much better regulatory environment than we were, I think a large part that has to do with the ETFs. This is kind of what we had, like theorized at the beginning of the year that like, with the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs, we were going to be in a different regulatory environment. And I think that's precisely what's materialized over the last few months. So I still think that that's going to be the case. For me, the only unknown that I'm still kind of wrestling with is really the macro side of things. And I think there might be choppy for a few months, but ultimately I think it's going to resolve itself until we get to the elections, in which case, man,

I have no idea what's going to happen there. I can't even imagine the deep fakes in this election. It's going to be entertaining regardless, man. Thank you so much. Glad to have you back on the show. Hopefully we will do it again very, very soon. Guys, you can follow David at his relatively newly established

Twitter account that we bullied him into on this very show. It's down below in the description, man. Thank you so much for all your perspective looking forward to chatting again soon thanks for having me all right guys before we move on to texas west capital we got a new amazing sponsor you can see it right there it's blender no e it's uh you know when you um dj names like 10 years, the most innovative way to stand out as a DJ was just to remove vowels. You know, I'd be like the wolf and it would just be W-L-F or like maybe you put an X instead of the vowel or something.

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No Tesla? Accurate. What was it? Wasn't it Tesla? I guess it's a moon Tesla. But yeah, moon Lambo was the, I don't know. In crypto, we Lambo. I guess we Tesla now.

We like Elon Musk. But yeah. Okay. We're at 71,000. To me, we're ranging, right? Ranging below that all-time high right around 73, 772, I guess on Binance here. We swept those lows beautifully, got the signal. Now we're just, to me, we're ranging between 74 and 67 until otherwise proven. When we broke kind of above that 67, I said, we should probably come down

and retest that. It took a couple of days. Just play the range for me. That's how I view it. Yeah. Nothing difficult going on. You know, people tend to get really in their heads when price isn't moving up immediately after they buy it and staying up. You know, if price goes up a little bit, they can overly exuberant and then it pulls back and they get overly depressive. And, you know, I mean, this is the psychology of the market. This is the psychology of the market. This is the psychology of the retail trader. Once you figure that out, you step back a little bit and you start understanding, okay, well, there's a method to the madness of price movement. You can step back and not freak out. I've been talking about the likelihood when we hit that all-time high that we would create a, you know,

a reaccumulation range and continue up. And I've had to argue with people for months now. I'll be honest, I'm kind of tired about it, you know, especially as we continue to head down and we hit that, you know, that dip below the range low there. And we had that spring that I've, you know, I've got identified with the yellow circle there. But man, everything since then, we've got the, you know, the impulsive breakout above the descending red resistance there. Um, we have the breakout through the recent purple resistance, uh, you know, and we're coming up here into the top end. And so everything really just continues to look good. Um, you know, it's just, it's patience, right? Yeah, but we just lost 71,000. So we're probably going to zero now. Oh, well, you know how it goes, you know, $ just it's patience right yeah but we just lost 71,000 so we're probably going to zero now oh well you know how it goes you know five dollars down means zero you know one dollar up means million 71 is a million below 71 straight to zero all right so what else are you looking for

i like i said i showing strength and a range for bitcoin to me is a good signal probably for the rest of the market like you definitely if we're're ranging in the top half and pushing slightly up, we should see some good movement and opportunity in the altcoin market, right? Yeah. Yeah. People are going to get kind of excited and be like, okay, well, hey, you know, Bitcoin, maybe get ready to go there. As we always say, you know, rising tide lifts all ships. Bitcoin is that rising tide. So as we jump over here, BNB, this is something I've been talking about for a while. I told people that it was, you know, here again, everybody was like going to zero here. And I said, you know, I doubt we lose this area. If we do, okay, we'll look way down here. But I

said, until we actually lose it, I said, you should still be looking up. This, to me, you know, this is a third wave here. The big candlesticks, big volume, that makes this a fourth wave, which means we've still got higher to go. So, you know, I discussed it right down here at the bottom, again here, once again here. And then I even posted a kind of little cheeky tweet that said it would be a shame if we broke out through this resistance here and headed to the top of the range, which is what we did. So, you know, I've been talking about this a while. It's been another great trade. that said it would be a shame if we broke out through this resistance here and headed to the top of the range, which is what we did.

So, you know, I've been talking about this a while. It's been another great trade. We just finally broke out through this triangle we had here. Based on the height of the triangle, we've got a target up there around 760. And so I wouldn't be surprised to kind of maybe hit that and pull back and then go. You know, but based on the height here, I here, we're looking for some decent movement up. So I think down here, everybody thought because of CZ and whatnot and what was going on with Binance and U.S. regulators, the DOJ, that this would get shut down. A lot of people were selling down here.

You see some volume coming in right there you see it again over here um and they they haven't bought back in from what i've seen the people that were really vocal about it going to zero so yeah it's a good trade i mean even the volume up there like you look at that volume on the left of your chart the volume on the right even this push from 200 something to 700 has had a fraction of what it used to be. Exactly. Exactly. You know, and throughout the range here, as we dip down, you know, volume overall dip down. As we started rallying back up, you know, volume can start to pick it up. You know, this is the thing we look for in trends.

We look for volume expansion and we look for candlestick expansion. Doesn't mean every candlestick is going to be bigger, but it means generally speaking, as the trend develops, as you go from the beginning into the middle of the trend uh your candlesticks generally speaking should be getting kind of bigger which we've got there versus kind of little at the beginning so it looks good it continues to look good i'm going to continue to look for it heading higher there um i've got some charts here yeah let's cook through these yeah i've got got Saul right here You know, still looking for it I still don't think There's any reason we shouldn't hit

Pretty easily for 406 up here, R5 pivot on the weekly But locally right here What I'm looking for From where we are at the moment here Is about a 209.5 And then I'll look for potential Rejection that'll pull us back down here Toward maybe this we are at the moment here is about a 209 and a half uh and then i'll look for potential rejection

there to pull us back down here toward uh maybe this this 160 kind of 160 165 area before it really kind of takes off that's my what i'm kind of expecting at the moment here so um we just kind of hit about neutral here on stoke rsi rsi finding support on neutral, crossing bullishly. Everything says, let's go up. So I want to go up. Brett, I don't trade this, obviously. You know me, but a lot of people have been talking about it. I've got a target. Based on what we got here, as soon as we pop out here,

we should be looking around 23.5 cents almost, and potentially even 27.5 a half cents up there what's the current price sorry i can't even see the current price yeah yeah it's uh yeah let me zoom in here it's 0.11065 so 11 cents so basically a double is what we're looking to get up there so um again i don't trade it but uh the setup's potentially here for it to rally up. And it doesn't mean it shoots up here necessarily all right away. You can pull up, pull back, pull up, kind of head it up there. But ultimately kind of where I'm looking for it at the moment.

Let me see here. I've got Ordi. People have been talking about Ordi a bit. Right now I've got a local target here around almost $71, $70.80. And once we break out actually above this swing high right here at $79.50, to me that says, okay, we should be on our way out. Let me see here. And then I want to be looking up there toward almost $200 up there is where I'm interested in. Once we break out here, again, it doesn't mean, for some reason I have to say this because people

always come at me with this, but it doesn't mean, oh, we break out here and immediately we rocket up to $200, $193. It just means that that's the target based on this pullback here. Again, you know, we've got a nice move up through here. We've kind of pulled back into that heading back up. It looks like, you know, it'll be up and down along the way, but ultimately that's where I'd be looking at least. What else we got? We got near. We all like near, right? It's been such a good performer, man. Oh man. It's, you know, it's, it's been, it's been really great. I mean, look at, look at that. Look at that. It's just been absolutely beautiful.

And we're ready to, I think we're ready to do this again. So, uh, we, we've clipped the level that I needed to clip here. We pull back then to the daily pivot. You can see that we're just now breaking out of what we're sold and stoke RSI, RSI hovering right around neutral, threatening to break bullishly. So I'm looking for a breakout higher. I've got a target up here at $14.22. Again, that's about 100% move from where we are in price. Folks, that does not mean go all in every leverage or whatever uh and and make you know twice your money on that or 50 times your money use proper risk management please yes somebody commented earlier that uh if i thought

the title that i thought it was gonna about to skyrocket my title was stupid unless i go all in on eath oh well you know um inexperienced market participants will feel that way. Right. Yeah. But once you're in, guys, you know, yes, money is made through concentration and it's protected through diversification in the markets. That doesn't mean you put everything all in in one thing because you're still human. Anything can still happen. And, you know, why would you put yourself

at that kind of risk but you know if you believe in something you do decently heavy into it and you go and i know scott's been talking a lot about being uh pretty heavy into ethereum so i mean that's that's what you should be doing so uh this is a good we're just looking for this breakout here to continue on uh speaking of ethereum ethereum bitcoin man better bounce here better bounce buddy that's exactly how i'm viewing it though good yeah i love it look at that that's a that's a that's a wave three right there large candlesticks large spike of volume this should be a four that gives us a five up here to the weekly pivot which is the r1 pivot pivot showing up on the daily chart. And so that should give us one wave up. This is about a 50% pullback of this. So this should be

a wave two. So looking for that rally up to the weekly pivot, which is 0.0606, right around there. Pull back down here toward this pivot area around 0.05265. And then that gives you a minimum expected, a larger version of this wave three, wave three here up toward 0.08560, which gets you, oh my gosh, to the top of the range. You know, again, this to me appears to be a wave four. And so we're looking for, you know, obviously much higher. We've talked about it more than a few times here. But right now, locally, I believe this is what we'll see heading in here. For anybody interested in either trading it

or watching it for some insight into Ethereum versus Bitcoin charts. And finally, another one of my ones that I really enjoy here is Link. You've got this great little accumulation area down here. Years. We had years to buy it. Years. So long.

So long. Had a nice spring down here. Man, should have bought that. Last point of support. Last point of support. Jump across the creek. Rallied up. We pulled back. Again, this is the weekly pivot here. the job doing the work rsi finding support around neutral breaking out bullishly stoke rsi hasn't even hit neutral yet

locally i've got a 34 and 42 cent target but ultimately we should expect this thing to break out higher so um you know again you know this was that area. This is when, when I was telling everybody, you know, listen, we're going to get this drop down here. It's going to print a spring. You should be buying it at that four or $5 area. I mean, and had you done that, it's a great trade. You know, it's almost like when we're talking about Saul there and, you know, $9 to buy it, uh, or even BNB when we're talking there, when it was dropping out 180, 200 to buy it.

Um, you know, you, you guys, it was dropping out 180, 200 to buy it. Um, you know, you, you guys, you can trade, you can learn to do this. It's, it's,

it's not, it's simple. It's not easy. And it's not easy because our emotion can teach you. If only there was a great teacher. Only there was, I've had a few in my life. That guy,

that guy. I would tell you a story yesterday. Like a kid That guy. I was telling a story yesterday. A kid approached me. The other day, I was literally with a realtor. She brought her kid to meet me. It was the weirdest thing. He was like, he wanted to talk about big. He was a high school kid.

He was like, I'm into Brett. I was like, cool, I guess. Then he was like, his mom was like, where can he learn? Where can he whatever? I told him to just come to you, actually. He might can he whatever? And I told him to just come to you, actually. So you might hear from him. But I told him to just come to you. I was like, if you're going to do this, yeah, you got to go to Chris.

You know, we do what we can, man. I come in there. I teach people how to do everything from day trading for income to price forecasting for wealth building. I mean, you know, you get to understand how and why the market actually moves like it does. Doesn't mean you're always going to be correct. You're still not always going to be correct. You know, we're human beings. We're going to screw up sometimes, but the goal is to be more correct, you know, when possible. And then really to use proper

risk management. So even when you are wrong, you're protecting yourself. The goal is to admit you're wrong and get out as fast as humanly possible when you are. I think that's right. That's right. Yeah. I love it. Well, you guys can check out obviously Chris TX West capital and what's the website these days for them to come join? Um, actually they can join right now through, uh, if they come over to my, uh, my Twitter profile, I've got links on there, direct links to get them into the group coaching if they want to do that. That is the best way to do it at the moment here. So we've got somebody working on the front end of the website, taking a little longer than usual. But once that's done, they'll be able to go to

texaswestcapital.com and jump in there. Awesome. Well, guys, go learn something. Check that out. Amazing stream today. It was great to have Dave back. Always good to see you, Chris guys. Obviously I'll be back tomorrow, 9am Eastern standard time. Thanks Chris. See you guys soon. Let's go.