The Wolf Of All Streets - Ethereum Pump! | ETH ETF Explained: What Are The Chances Of Approval?

Episode Date: May 22, 2024

Latest updates on the Ethereum ETFs approval process from 2 main ETF people: Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart.  James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyff Eric Balchunas: https://x.com/EricBalchunas Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #ethereumetf  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:00 Eth ETF is a political decision 9:50 The mechanics 15:20 Staking 18:00 Elections 27:00 Ethereum chart 33:40 Bitcoin chart 36:20 Altcoins The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

It is a shocking week in the crypto sphere, especially for Ethereum. We've seen a seismic shift there. You guys know what I'm talking about, but we're going to get all of the insight from the two greatest ETF analysts of all time. That is Eric Baltudis and James Seifert from Bloomberg. Of course, we're going to break down everything happening with ETH, probably talk about why this is happening now in the context of everything happening with the government, and then going to have Texas West Capital on the back half, looking at the charts in this newly bullish market. Let's go. tomorrow is the big day of the deadline we never thought this would happen at least not for the last few weeks and here we are now talking about an ethereum spot etf and when i want to talk about etfs i bring in our meme wall street guy you're not really wearing your vest there are you james

damn i do have my vest i can throw it on if you want we need a lanyard and a vest and then if that wasn't cool enough we've got eric in his car eric in his car what's up eric in his car how are you man good i um there was traffic on the way to the office so i haven't just pulled over before going in but i'm good i'm not technically driving so there's no safety even if you were I think that would be even cooler in a way. So you wouldn't be the first, and I've even done it myself. So I think we had Dave Weisberger doing that literally on Monday from his Tesla. So anyways, let's dive right into it. I'm going to start with a tweet from Eric.

For anyone wondering why our odds were low up until yesterday, see below. This was a shock, a holy shit moment moment yesterday even for people inside the process that said props to james saver for convincing me to stick with a 25 percent floor as i wanted to go lower that's how deafening the silence was from the sec and how bleak the chatter was this exact reason to allow room for something unforecastable like this. What's going on here, Eric? Yeah. So look, there is already some debate on whether this was political. My buddy Nate Geraci, his theory all along was that they were going to purposely be silent because they didn't want a circus surrounding this. And I get that. So to have him have a total W, he kind of needs that thesis to come true. The political aspect benefits our thesis earlier, which was silence is violence.

And everybody I talk to inside the situation is saying it's political. So I have nobody saying that, oh, yeah, Gary just waited until the last minute. I'm hearing even the staff was caught flat footed and was like, what? And so all this kind of came around 11th hour. And again, we don't I don't have like literally like someone on record smoking gun saying that this was a political over time. I think we'll know. But to me, you just connect the dots. Anybody who's been watching things play out over the past 10 days has seen the political pendulum swing pretty quickly. And if I was Biden or the Democrats, I would do the same thing. You don't want to let this issue get away from you. So to me, the math adds up. The tea leaves look this way. So I think we,

I don't really feel any embarrassment or anything about our lower odds. We were really in tune with everybody inside the situation as well. And that's the best we can do. Yeah. I don't know how anyone can expect you to know new information that happened overnight and to handicap that in advance. Like you said, if, talk about the government checks and balances are always good. So we I said, OK, well, we both have to agree. And so he wouldn't go lower than 25. And that's where the the the base, the floor was. And because he only went 25, we look, you know, I think it looks a little better. And ironically, on the spot, Bitcoin approval, James and I talked about how we were at 90%. And I was like, why don't we go to 95? And then we talked about this 11th hour black swan might happen in the reverse on Bitcoin happened in the positive here. But either way, that's why you always leave a little window.

Yeah. So, James, you were stuck at 25 percent, weren't going lower. What's going on? Yeah, I mean, it just it didn't like I what the stuff they was saying kept getting at me like I just can't imagine them denying the way they could do it. They, there was ways they could do a correlation, but I just like, this is going to be hard to defend in court. There's a bunch of other issues here. And it just didn't seem right to me. That said, I've got it from like multiple sources as Eric kind of hinted that even the sec staff was caught off guard. I've heard anecdotally that there were some people that didn't know this was happening until after our tweets that Eric put out when the market went wild. So there were people at the SEC that didn't know this was going on.

This really happened. It sounds like sometime late last week where this was a change. I think it's possible, even likely, that if a denial order wasn't at least outlined or somewhat written, possibly fully written before this change happened late last week. You talk about this is different from the spot Bitcoin raised, right? We went to 90% in early October. This movement, everything that started happening, happened in October. We didn't get approval until January 10th. The fact that this stuff is happening three days before this 19 before deadline, I think is being lost by some people

in the crypto crowd, the dot eats of the world, if you will. This is 11th hour crazy stuff. Obviously, some people were somewhat prepared for this. They were kind of ready for it. They had to be ready for it. But everyone was relatively caught off guard. I talked to some people that were like, I can't believe this is actually happening. I think if you talk to anyone in crypto, they can't believe that this is actually happening. I mean, here's your update from last night. It's happening. We have at least five of the potential Ethereum ETF issuers that have submitted their amended Knight CB4s in the last 25 minutes. Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco, Galaxy, ArcShares, Franklin, all submitted, right? There you go.

VanEck now added to the DTCC website. We know that's kind of a nothing burger after debating that endlessly over the Bitcoin spot ETF, but still a step in the right direction. And we know Fidelity is dropping staking plans along with others. So clearly this is kind of like that cash create versus Bitcoin holding situation where they're just getting in line and making sure that they're compliant with exactly what the SEC wants. At least that's how it is. Hey, real quick on the DTCC. The one interesting thing there is we see the first ticker. What was it? Is it E-A-T-V or something?

I think I just closed it like a dummy. Anyway. Yeah, something like that. It was a really long, weird one. That's what I noticed. So, because Valkyrie is not in this and VanEck was the one with HODL, we probably aren't going to get any fun tickers. I'm not even sure what kind of a ticker you could create off Ether that would be kind of novel.

So it looks like they're going to be kind of boring. I say that just as it's totally cosmetic, but the tickers are always interesting to me. They are marketing tools sometimes. And if VanEck's going with that type of ticker, I think it says that you'll see a lot of like sort of very functional tickers, nothing too creative. Yeah. Interesting. You mentioned obviously Valkyrie. We had that scoop from Eleanor Tarrant that coin shares who own Valkyrie now are not going to apply for an Ethereum spot ETF. They say they see no value for investors without staking in a crowded market alongside nine other issuers. Throwing in the white flag a bit, but something, Eric, we talked about yesterday,

there's not a huge expectation of massive inflows here. So getting in the back of the line at this point probably is just going to cost them money, right? This isn't like the Bitcoin spot ETF, the coin tucky derby. Yeah, no. And BRRR, I believe, and James can correct me, I think a lot of the assets are sort of BYOA anyway. And so they were one of the least asset gathering of the Bitcoin. And if their projections are anywhere close to ours, which is 10 to 15%, James might be a little more bullish of the Bitcoin ETFs, it doesn't leave a ton of money for like the 8th or 9th or 10th issuers. So in this race, we could see a couple more losers than in the Bitcoin race out of the 9 or 10. Because let's say 10%, you're at 5 billion, 6 billion.

Let's get liberal and say 10 billion. You know, let's assume the big one, the first two get half of that. Then you're down into the hundreds of millions. And so I get it. I can see their math. Yeah, they're just not going to make money on that, I would imagine. So James, talk to us about the mechanics here.

So tomorrow's the day, right? I mean, as you and I kind of talked before, they have to answer to ARK and VanEck. I believe they could theoretically ask them to pull and give it a few more weeks, but it looks like they're trying to get this done potentially tomorrow. Do we think that just those two get approved or do you think we get sort of a sweeping approval of all of them again? Yeah. So before I even get to the, the, the, the order of events, the ticker is ETHV. So just for anyone who actually wants to know, so nothing, nothing

crazy there. And then I would also say I'm with Eric. He said 10 to 15%, I think 20 ish percent of what we saw Bitcoin, maybe a little more. Ethereum is 30% of the market cap of Bitcoin. I think the demand will be less than the demand in the regular market for a multitude of reasons. And I honestly, I don't fully, like you guys said, I don't fully blame Valkyrie because like it particularly without staking, I think this is a harder sell than Bitcoin as far as dates. Yeah. Tomorrow is the deadline for VanEck. The day after is the deadline for ARK21 shares. I don't think it matters when your deadline is, as long as you're in based on what I'm hearing, it's going to be the same way that they handle things with the Bitcoin ETFs, the same way they tried to handle things with the Ethereum ETFs.

Everyone's going to get approved if you're in and you meet the SEC requirements for these 19B4 filings. The difference here is that with Bitcoin, one thing that we talked about in like November timeframe before that January approval was there's a possibility that they could approve these 19B4s and then it could take weeks to months before we see these S1s or prospectuses signed off. So you need two divisions of the SEC need to sign off on this. Trading and Markets does the 19 befores. That's what we're talking about right now. But the Division of Corporate Finance needs to sign off on the S1s or prospectuses, offering documents, whatever words you want to use. They did those in conjunction with each other from October through January for Bitcoin.

They haven't started any of this as far as I'm concerned. Now you can make the argument that real quick, the futures, you have Ethereum futures done already. You have spot Bitcoins. There's some overlap, but I'll let Eric join in here. Yeah. The corporate finance team had no heads up. And so the question is how much pressure is on them to get this done? Also, the other question is how much energy do they have to do this again?

They might just give them a couple notes and just get it done because obviously the Bitcoins are up and running. So I think it could be sooner rather than later. I know months was something in your note, James. I would say probably weeks, if not within a week. By the fact that they're not denying it, they already kind of solve that narrative problem. So is there pressure to get it done quickly? Probably not. But they also could just want it over with get it out of the news cycle. Also, again, there's less to do. So if I, you know, James, we never talked about this, but my over-under for launch date, I would say, is two weeks. What would you say? I think that's fair. I mean, there's plenty of examples of this process taking like four months, five months.

Let's do that. Bitcoin ETFs took 90 days. Hold on. I don't think this is going to be that. I'm with you. I would love four months because I think it would keep the hype and the buy pressure on and we wouldn't get the immediate sell the news. The longer, the better. But hold on. Are you buying it as a long-term investor or are you trying to trade around all this? I own ETH as a long-term investor from like 80 bucks. Okay. So does it really

matter? Because if you're going to hold it long term. I'm just here for the narrative and the fun. And I think that it would be a lot more fun to be able to, you know, to come out and dress for four months. Yeah. Well, that's the thing with the Bitcoin. And that's the thing with the tweet we put out. When we put out other tweets that were somewhat novel or new on the Bitcoin approval process. There was also there was already a general feeling that it was going to be approved or leaning that way. So we just had a little drip, a little incremental news like,

oh, the 19 befores are now back with the issuers. And all this stuff was interesting and novel, and we were on it the whole time. But none of it was like groundbreaking. This particular situation was like we were talking and we're like, this is going to be like a little bit of a bombshell because this completely is opposite what everybody was thinking. So a lot of thought went into how to word it. And I'm, you know, I'm not totally comfortable doing that, but we wanted to make sure we updated our odds and got ahead of this with the new information because we were so low and we have to change the odds just like ESPN would change the odds and percent to win a game if LeBron wasn't supposed to play and then he plays

obviously that Lakers odds go up yeah I would I would also say real quick like we also were like all right we were pretty bearish that this was going to happen I mean everyone was for the most part but we were vocal and like people were looking to us so we. So we were debating whether or not we should break this news. But we were also looking at ETH. I was looking at the intraday discount. It was collapsing before we tweeted. Prices on Bitcoin and Ethereum specifically were deviating from the rest of the market. So I was like, this is already out there based on price information.

Yeah, the discount went 23% to 11% in a few days, but half of that happened before any public news was made. Exactly. Yep. Suspect. It was like 16% and then it went to 11% after our drop. Yeah, but it was at 23% on the 17%. Exactly. Right. So, yeah, exactly. So I want to ask you, why was staking such a big deal? In my opinion, that everybody capitulated, this wasn't going to happen. So they got in line with staking as the ideal product and started filing for staking, thinking maybe we get regime change and then staking is considered and we'll be at the front of the line with the best

product. And now they're pulling it in the last hour because it won't be approved with it. Is that accurate? I'll take a blunt definition that James can fine tune. In a 33 Act, you can't do securities lending, which is kind of a wonky thing. Like SPY, the biggest, is a 30 – I'm sorry. It's a unit trust. Long story short, in 33 Act, you cannot lend out the securities to get security lending revenue in stock, like in anything. So they just can't do it legally. And I don't know if that's only the reason they won't allow it, or if there's another reason, because they just feel like that adds extra risk to this new thing they're tracking. But either way, I just, I don't, I think it would be a non-starter just in the specific vehicle they're in, in the act they're

under. That's my take on it, but I don't know, James, you got anything else? Yeah. I mean, I think it's a gray area. I don't know if it's necessary take on it, but I don't know, James, you got anything else? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a gray area. I don't know if it's necessarily black and white from my understanding. I know SPY can't do it because it's UIT and UITs cannot do that stuff. But like I would say the other part of this is I think if the SEC wanted to allow it and the SEC was preserved, I think legally they could have done it as long as the SEC okayed it. But based on all the other SEC actions, Coinbase, Kraken, they are not okay with staking. I said this very early in May, maybe even in April, I started saying, I had this pet theory that everyone was talking about, you remember the narratives, like the consensus lawsuit and all this stuff, and that the SEC is

going to deny the Ethereum ETFs and call them a security. I was very vocal in saying, I don't think they're going to do that. That puts them at war with the CFTC. I think they're going to find another way to deny these ETFs. And I think they're going to try to thread a needle. I think what they're going to say, I still think they might try to say this, is that stake ETH is a security. You're expecting returns, what have you, yada, yada, yada. But Ethereum itself is a commodity. And I think if we get the approval of ETF, that puts another feather in that cap of that possibly happening. And it's very evident. Look, I wasted an hour and a half of my life yesterday looking through the changes between the 19 befores that were filed and the amendments. And the only real thing I saw change, there was a bunch of stuff, but the only thing substantial

was removing staking. Some language change here and there, but it was removing staking was the main thing. And honestly, I think I was on here. I was like, we're low odds that the Ethereum ETF gets approved. But I was like, I'm an order of magnitude more bearish that staking is allowed in these ETFs. There's no way the SEC is going to allow staking. Yeah, I agree. Listen, I want to go back to something Eric said earlier, which is the sort of political environment and why this may have happened, because I think we all agree that this didn't just spontaneously come into Gensler's mind that this needed to happen on a Monday morning, three days before approval. We've seen Saab 121 with Democrats, including Schumer, pushing back against an already announced advance veto by Biden. So that was a huge sort of point against the anti-crypto army. We've seen the FDIC chair

that Elizabeth Warren was protecting, which was an article written last week. He's going to step down. That's the guy who basically orchestrated Operation Chokepoint 2.0, for those who believe in it. And 1.0. He did 1.0 too. Yes, true. And now obviously we have this, right? I mean, Trump, we've seen come out in the past few weeks, making a lot of pro-crypto statements now saying he's going to be taking cryptocurrency donations, vows to build a crypto army, right? Against the anti-crypto army. And then you have Biden immediately sending out a donation letter saying, folks, this couldn't be any more serious. Cryptocurrency executives and oil barons are coming out of the woodwork for Trump. They're rushing $800,000 checks at glitzy events.

Now Trump is out raising. I mean, there's like full crypto panic happening right now. It is bananas. So this is the reason. Come on. I mean, I'm not, this isn't even tinfoil hat at this point. The tide turned on anti-crypto sentiment being a winnable issue for the democrats for whatever reason they were doing i agree i mean it doesn't take a genius to to see it you just had to put your thumb in there and or just be online at all and you saw the sentiment change what really what it wasn't

just trump saying it would when i thought oh man this is this is really real because Trump says a lot of things is when some of the moderates like Omar Cuban was like, this is dumb for the Democrats to be anti. And when someone like that and there was a couple other people like him, I'll call them moderates or people in the middle. Novogratz, Cuban, Garibuchi were the big three that I saw who are outspokenly voting for Biden and said, what the hell are you doing? Yeah, because, you know, everything's pretty tribal. There's the one side and the other side. But the middle people can be bellwethers or bellwethers, the perfect word to help you figure out a mood. And when they cross to the other side to make a point, that's how you know that the one side is losing the middle. And so I thought when they were saying this is bad sign, bad news, I thought that's a sign the Democrats are really losing this to regular people. And that's when I thought, I felt that

was a huge variable. But I bet, honestly, if you pulled the thread on all this and james put it in his note it's probably when trump said if you are pro crypto you got to vote trump um was about may 8th i think and i think that that might be like the inception level four moment yeah i mean i don't think we should expect the democrats and biden to make a wholesale reversal but at this point i think they might just back off on the anti-r anti rhetoric yeah just kind of kind of let it go and like you know we we've seen how much pr the bitcoin etf got and so the the this if they wrote a rejection letter it would be picked apart that would be then oh is there a lawsuit who's going to do this and the whole it would be – it would just be hammering home the narrative that the SEC doesn't like crypto.

And that – it would be like a long news cycle. I mean, so if – again, if I were calculating this on public relations basis, I completely understand why they would be like, we cannot deny this now. It's fascinating if, again, if, I mean, I'm assuming it is, if this is the reason, how much innocence is lost within the regulators who were told, hey, we're going to deny this on these reasons. And then, boom, just because it's, you're going to lose a few votes, everything, you have to completely reverse your entire point of view. There's got to be cynical about that yeah it's very cynical and we literally just saw the sec effectively approve ethereum custody as a security for promethium who literally does nothing else as a qualified register broker dealer that came in and registered so like that news dropped at the exact worst time for them, which is something they were probably working on for months.

Yeah. I was just going to say real quick, we obviously put those tweet out and then I wrote a note that night basically. And the title we use was Ether odds rise after Trump makes crypto an election issue. So I'm in complete agreement with everything you're saying. And what I'm hearing from the timeline is things shifted late last week, either Thursday or Friday. So I think it was all the things you mentioned and the Senate sob 120 SAB 121 vote that happened on Thursday. And from what I'm hearing, most of like, it sounds like people at the SEC started talking about this and hearing about this on Friday. So that would timeline with right, like literally the last two weeks right before that it was, it was just, it all led to one thing, right? This is what definitely political and I'm with you. I, they don't need to go pro crypto. I think they just need to take the foot off the anti-crypto break. Cause I think they realize

like raising an anti-crypto army isn't necessarily like the, the, the win they think it is. I think there's a lot of people that are more ambiguous to it. And there's plenty of people that are pro and you're just like trying to go after this really small area of people who are like just adamantly against it. I have a more sinister view. I don't think they ever thought it was popular. I think they were protecting the banks,

you know, the donors like JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon writing Elizabeth Warren's bills. I have another theory on this. There's this guy, Ben Hart, who he wrote, he's a retail investor in this, and he referred to Bitcoin as the second amendment of money. leans right or is just more natural on the right because if you think about what that means it's protection against the government and so if you are for bigger government it's almost against your dna to be like yeah let me get get into this thing that you're into because you think the government is doing a bad job at this man you know um managing the dollar or money. So it's almost like the Second Amendment. It's become an issue that leans right.

I'm not sure that's true, but I do feel like there's just a – like the whole thesis behind Bitcoin is somewhat of a critique of the government to a point. And that's, I think, why it was hard. It was natural for the one side to be more anti. And so I think it really comes down to just like ideology in the end. I also think that like to a degree, Sam just disproportionately hurt one party more than the other, because before FTX, you might remember the Democrats were meeting with Sam constantly and pushing very hard for this kind of thing. So I think there's an embarrassment factor and a probably top down approach from the party saying, even if you like this stuff, just don't talk about it for a while.

Because we knew there are a lot of pro crypto Democrats individually. Yeah. And also, I would say a lot of the swing state Dems are the ones that were voting for this in the House and in the Senate. Yeah. So I think it matters. I think these crypto views matter in tight races, in swing states. And I think that's what I think. I bet you we've seen plenty of polls showing how many millions of Americans own crypto, how many millions of Americans think it's an important political issue. I don't know how many of people are actually single issue voters on crypto, and let alone how many of the single issue crypto voters were going to vote Biden and are now going

to vote Trump because of crypto. I can't imagine there's as many as some people think that we're kind of in like an echo chamber, but I bet you the Democratic Party probably looked at this and was like, it's just not worth the risk of losing, I don't know, a couple thousand votes in a swing state. Yeah, totally agree. Well, guys, we're up against time. Thank you, as always, for your perspective. Eric, we're going to let you get out of your roles and get into work.

James, we're going to let you put back on your best. Great talking to you. See you guys. All right, guys. Thank you. Thank you, guys. Follow James and Eric. I'll see you guys soon.

Show us the best. Come on. At least show us the best. It's there. I know it's there. I got it. I'm wearing it. I always have it.

Okay, perfect. It's a little warm, though. All right. Well,. At least show us the best. It's there. I know it's there. Got it. I'm wearing it. I always have it. Okay. Perfect. It's a little warm though. All right. Well, whatever, man. You can't. Dude, fashion is pain, my friend. Come on. We all know that. I've learned that from my wife. All right, guys. Thank you. Wow. Guys, in case you're wondering, by the way, how big of a move this was by Ethereum, I think it was the largest daily candle ever at 22%. At least that's what I read in an article. And Ether market cap adds close to an entire Solana blockchain in a single day. So if we want to talk about the Solana versus Ethereum, if you want to just consider the size, it ain't even close. Literally a 22% move in Ethereum added an entire Solana market cap. Isn't that crazy, Chris? That's absolutely silly, but good.

You know, it's interesting. I tweeted about this yesterday. I'm just going to bring it up really quick. There's this perception, obviously, which is correct. Solana has led the charge here, right? To some degree, it's gone up far more than ETH. ETH has been lagging. When you actually look at it from a different perspective, Ethereum topped at 4868 in the last cycle, right? Currently trading, I had it at 3800 when I did the math. That's about a 21% drawdown from the all-time high. So if you're talking about someone who unfortunately bought it on the worst day at the all-time high, They're just down 21% now. You take a look at Solana, even with all this action, its high was 260. Let's call it trading at 180. That's over a 30% from the all-time high. So for people from last cycle, ETH is performing better than Solana.

If you were a holder and you're a long-term investor, ETH is performing better than Solana. I think people just don't realize how disproportionately wrecked Solana got by FTX. So the reversion back to the mean of where it should be in this market, I think is the majority of that move. And you also might remember, let's say you're a hedge fund. What's the job of a hedge fund? Now it's become to make a ton of money, but the job of a hedge fund used to be protect people's money, right? To do better in a down market and underperform in a bull market. If you were a hedge fund, you would have held ETH last cycle and done way better than any of this stuff. Because you might remember when Bitcoin went to 20, ETH went to 800 or so. I don't remember the exact number. Then Bitcoin went down again and ETH, I don't think even broke below a thousand, but it certainly never made a new low.

So ETH actually performed way better on the downside, which is why it's lagging and doesn't seem to have had as much upside. Yeah. And that's, you know, that's what given everybody, you know, again, it's what we talk about often here, which is that sideways kind of movement throws people off, you know, and I think it's especially, you know, relevant here in crypto because people, I mean, let's face it, most of people that are in crypto, they aren't really traders, they're gamblers. And they're looking for the dopamine hit, they're looking for the quick fix. And so when price goes sideways, they freak out, they get really down. Oh my God, it's dead. It's the end of it. It doesn't matter how many times you and I come on here and say, but let's look, really look at the chart here. You know, they just kind of fall off on that. And usually they end up getting out right before it does something big.

So, you know, I know quite a few traders that had finally just given up here pretty recently. There were like four people that publicly announced it. I remember Rand did, others. I don't remember a lot of tweets saying, I'm just done with Ethereum. It doesn't have a narrative anymore, as if narratives have ever mattered in crypto when you look at the chart. I mean, look at that chart. Look at that descending channel breakout. I mean, monster.

And this was it. You had this accumulation going on here. You had the descending resistance. And so everybody's like, oh, my God, you know, the news and you need to trade that. No, you didn't need to trade that. You just need to notice what was going on on the chart here. It was it was set up for that break. I get the volume dropping off into the range here. You had the EQ holding a support higher low, you know, on lesser volume. I mean, everything just clean, ready to go.

And so, you know, if you if you know how to read this and you were sitting here, I mean, you were positioned in this area. And so, you know, if you, if you know how to read this and you were sitting here, I mean, you, you were positioned in this area, at least, you know, somewhere in here over the last few weeks and just waiting. And there you were, that was what, 20, I think 25% over the, over the two days there, it's like 20% on the first day. Yeah. I think it's, I mean, still I'm looking, I think right now, even from yesterday, it's up 22.26% in 24 hours. And we all know it hasn't moved since halfway through yesterday or something. Really? Yeah.

I mean, we're already at 3,800. So, I mean, this is a crazy, crazy move. It was great. I mean, it's, it's fantastic. It feels good, you know? Well, especially for those of us who've been saying that it's been lagging, but it's going to do great. I mean, I just needed one day for vindication, but it lasted over a year waiting for it.

So almost. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, you know, it's good. It's set up. It's out there. Now we're going. Targets haven't changed.

We're still looking at 5185 and then 6350, you know, locally here. So there's been new all time highs. But, you know, again, same same kind of thing. I've been looking at that 5100 area since we were you know doing this whole thing back here right um so you know and then again people were freaking out here talking about remember how down everybody was and how to tell about how dead it was here takes off nice big move pulls back oh it's dead again boom there it goes again so um you know patience guys by the way you're not the only one saying that. Ether has one in five chance of tapping 5K by the end of June.

Nice. Nice. I didn't say end of June. Yeah. Yeah. That's like 40 days. That's a pretty, that'd be a pretty solid move. But why not?

That would be nice. That would be nice. Yeah. So let's talk about just like before you dig into these other charts like generally i think that the eth move is bigger for the altcoin market in general than anything we've seen yet in this cycle i mean historically if eth goes then we actually start to see more just across the board bullish action instead of these like segmented yeah yeah exactly i mean um we i mean we saw it on that day i mean you know we were talking about

you were talking about solana earlier and even solana was up, uh, you know, even though Ethereum was up 20%, Solana, I think was up something like 15% or something like that. Uh, they're on Monday as well. Uh, you know, just kind of everybody kind of get into that, but, you know, last week, uh, when, when I was on, you know, we were talking about the fact that everything kind of looks sideways, everything looked like it was getting ready that it wanted to move up, uh, you know, the same kind of basic pattern across most of the alts and um so you know again i i don't think we can really be surprised by the movement uh just that you know it moved you know ethereum moved as big as it did but yeah the fact that the

movement happened i don't think should be a surprise at all and neither should at the the alts that kind of follow with it. So like you're saying, I think there's, I think we're going to see a, you know, a broader kind of alt. I hate to use the term all season, but rally,

you know, rally. Yeah. You know, kind of coming up here. So I think it's a, it's an exciting time. It doesn't mean it happens tonight or tomorrow or whatever guys,

but I think it starts looking kind of interesting now. And you know, if you've been kind of bored with alts or being kind of upset about them, I think now's the time to really start paying attention. Yeah. Okay. So you're about to look at Bitcoin, which I think we do relatively quickly, and then move on if you got any others. Yeah, I got a few more. Again, I've been talking about this being reaccumulation, this being the spring, we got the pullback on lesser volume, all great. We've got the big breakout that we needed, a little bit of volume there, large candle spread through the daily pivot, the descending resistance. And then of course, this was then on Monday here. Now, usually what

we get with this accumulation or reaccumulation structure is we'll get the initial push up into this resistance above the range high. And then usually we'll get a pullback and then we get the big move um now we're finding support at the moment here right around the top of the range here but ideally we would pull back into uh you know maybe sunday night monday morning and then 67 i had i mean i don't know if it'll go that deep but like for me i had kind of a different range so i even wrote the newsletter today like maybe back to the EQ before, uh, you know, popping back up. Yeah. Now we're to me and now we're just range trading in the top half of the range, you know, instead of, but you're above it already, which is great. Yeah. And again,

you know, I posted, um, a reminder there about the, uh, you know, the cop report with the CME shows that, uh, hedge funds are still historically long. I mean, something like 17,100, I mean, short, sorry, short positions. And in like 200 on the long side, and then your asset managers are the opposite. They're like 17,000 long and a bit short, but there's something like what, $10 billion worth of shorts right up here. So if we can, you know, again, if we can get this pullback here, that should give us enough strength to really pop into it. And that gets that short squeeze started. And, you know, I think we hit mid 80s at least on a decent move, which really is just like 13%.

That's not huge. Yeah. You know, we could do that over two days of continual push, you know. But the idea is that we should get that. And that would be, you know, we can do that over two days of continual push, you know, but the idea is that we should get that. And that would be, you know, again, pulling back here, we get another last point of support and that breakout through this resistance here would be what we call that jump across the creek. Uh, and that signals that, you know, accumulation is done in that area. So, uh, for me, uh, ideally I'd like to see a pulling back there toward that, you know, 65, 66,000 area, depending what it pulling back there toward that $65,000, $66,000,

depending on what charts you're looking at, and then get that rally up through there, like I said, maybe Sunday night starting or Monday morning, somewhere around there. Oh, actually, it'd probably be Tuesday, guys, actually, because what? Monday is Memorial Day. Memorial Day, yeah. The U.S. is going to be out there drinking america you know so yeah all right what else you got let's cook through these all right i got some here real quick let's jump on here i've got uh this is injective so uh again

starting out the weekly just because very clear very nice zoom in there if you can. Please just zoom in so it's bigger on the screen. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There we go. So zooming in here, again, looking for a breakout here right above about this $29, $30 area. Locally should get us $46, $850. And then I'm really kind of looking forward to head up here toward $96.65. But the weekly looks absolutely great. It looks like a bit of accumulation going on here, so we want to see that just rally and break out.

What else we got here? We got Floki. Everybody likes Floki, right? Or they did it one time. This is one of the cleanest counts. I had to put the count out because it's just so clean. 1-2, clear 3, 438-2 pullback. Based on the hideaway, 4-way, 5's's got a target of I'm not saying the zeros but 57

400 there and right now we're seeing a 22 so that's a pretty good little rally coming in again this looking at the weekly here sitting right there above the reset but looks really good for that what is

this I just saw a comment that says I seem really annoyed with you. It's bad energy. People find the craziest things on YouTube, man. I love Chris. He says, is it just me or does Scott seem really annoyed with Chris? Bad energy here. I got to go do like clear my

chakras or do some Reiki or something. I don't know what you're doing over there. Light some incense, man. I love Chris. ALZ looks good here. We're breaking out through that R1 pivot on the daily here. Overall, this correction should be complete. And so based on the height of that correction, you got $1.63 and a half as the target. So again, sitting there around 91, 92 cents right now, it's a pretty good little run locally here., I think we're good to go there again It doesn't mean we have to go straight from here straight up, you know, there'll be pullbacks along the way

But generally speaking we should be looking up there toward that dollar 63 and a half area at least um Fed I like fed Uh, it's still looking good. We had some great again. This is looking back here at the weekly we've got some great, action around these uh resistance areas here in support areas and then it took off we've got this nice channel going on here um weekly of course we've reset down and oversold uh we've got um rsi still above neutral, curled back up, threatening to head back up there toward overbought. So I believe this correction is done here, and we should be looking at it.

We're around almost $2.50 there. I think we're looking probably about $5.50 up there now. And so I think there's a good run for that. What else we got here by the way don't forget nvidia um nvidia earnings come out today after the uh after market hours so that's good yeah we'll see what happens then with ios that anything else that we think is an ai coin of some sort render right those are all going to move based on nvidia earnings it's good to know yeah yeah so and i think they're going to know. Yeah, yeah. And I think they're going to do pretty good. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, I think they're going to at least hit, probably do better. It might be their last quarter where they do it, where they have some great push. But again, still looking up there toward $1,100 plus for NVIDIA. But yeah, another great move and breakout here locally on the daily for CAS. We're kind of rallying right up to this. We've got this accumulation type range going on here. So, you know, we might get a bit of a pullback here,

whether it breaks a little bit higher first or not. But I think ultimately we continue heading up locally. 18 cent area, but really looking forward to run up there just beyond 33 and a half cents, 0.336. This looks like a running flat here. We've got an ABC down, we've got an ABC up, and then we've got an ABC 1, 2, ABC 3, 4, ABC 5, so an ending diagonal for Wave C.

So a running flat is a really bullish structure because what it tells you is supply could not overcome demand enough to get back down toward that swing low. So it tells you the market's pretty bullish. So really looking for that one to kind of break out and do a run there. Let me see here. And then I've got... I was looking at the cast this morning. It looks really good.

I almost put it in the newsletter, actually, but I just go with FTM. Did you? Big, nice range here back from December of 22. And we're just now getting ready to finally break out above that. But locally here, once we get the breakout, we're looking for an impulsive breakout

above this resistance. And once we do that, locally, target of basically 7.3 cents here and then 9.3 cents right there. Those are local targets. But really, with the size of this here, once we're getting out there, you should be looking back up here toward, you know, 44, 65 cents, kind of very up here toward that all-time high because this is a long-time range here building up. So, well, again, guys, it's not going to happen overnight. But, you know, if you're looking to put into something that's going to sit there for a bit

and can make you some money, you know, over time and not sit there and stress out about it all the time, that would be something I'd be looking at doing right there. So that's what I'm looking at, man. Yeah. I mean, I just think the market looks great. Yeah. Oh, Loon Mambo wants to know. Yeah.

I'm completely clean shaven. I shaved this morning. I was going to see, I was going to mention something about that, man. You get that. It happens every once in a while. I shave like, you know, like I get to a point where it itches and I shave and it's like two more weeks and I shave and it's like two more weeks, but I'm unshaven in 48 hours. So I ride it that way. Awesome, man. I appreciate going through that. I mean, I think in general, you know, Ethereum turned the tide a bit for alts.

So now you can just start looking. It's like you can give all these setups and I went through a ton of them on Monday, just people requesting. But the biggest thing for me in this market is always knowing when to trade and when not to. And so now we're in a when to trade time instead of a when not to trade. You know, so sit on hands or not is the biggest decision, in my opinion. Yeah, the best decision most people can make. Yeah, totally agree. All right, guys, follow TX West Capital, who I despise.

Yeah. I can't stand the guy. The energy was so bad today. I was just throwing it. All right, but you did make me smile, Jeff, and my energy came back. Yeah, so we're good. All right, guys, that is all that I have got for you today. We'll be back.

We're going to have Wick today for Trading Alpha at 3 p.m., 3.30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Otherwise, we will see you guys later. Bye. Thanks, Chris.