The Wolf Of All Streets - Ethereum SET For All-Time Highs! Altcoins Ready To Follow?

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

In this episode we are joined by David Duong to uncover JPMorgan and PNC partnering with Coinbase , The stablecoin markets expansion and Ethereum surging to all time highs followed by TA from Chris In...ks to see where Altcoins are headed next. Lets Go!

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Ethereum is less than 3% off of its all-time high and looks set to break it as soon as maybe during this show. It could happen. We've seen it happen before. But the story right now also is that a lot of all coins are ready to follow. It seems like Solana is ramping up and a lot of tokens obviously that are affiliated or a part of the Ethereum ecosystem are also ramping up as Bitcoin trade sideways and all of this during the summer doldrums when things are supposed to be boring. And while we have just incredible news story after incredible news story, here to unpack it all with me is David Young from Coinbase, one of my favorite guests, one of your favorite guests. Let's get into it.
Starting point is 00:00:56 Good morning, everybody. And happy Wednesday. a welcome to the show and welcome to the show. David, good morning, sir. How are you? I'm pretty good. How are you? Is that a Coinbase shirt? It's got the right blue. It is. It is. It's the perfect blue. It's representing. We've got to get you a higher frame so that you can be a walking advertisement for Coinbase. I love it. Listen, the story right now, hard to talk about anything beyond what's happening with Ethereum, right? I mean, you've got it within a hair's breadth of that all-time high at 4,868. I mean, it's got a lot of catching up to do still. So I guess the question being, is this where it kind of tops out and we see the end of this trend or is it going to pull a Bitcoin? Because remember, 4,800 on Eath is basically comparable to 69,000 on Bitcoin, right? If we're talking about last cycle's highs, not as a ratio.
Starting point is 00:01:46 So a long way to go if it breaks above and pulls a Bitcoin. Yeah. And we're seeing that dominance metric has gone up to around 18% of the total cup to market cap. But as you point out, it's nowhere near where it was in as far as previous cycles. So I still think it has room to go. I think the market conditions are definitely supportive of it. I'm talking about both what's going to happen on macro, but also on the regulatory side. So I think that also if you're looking at what's happening on chain,
Starting point is 00:02:14 and I think a lot of people are more focused on the price and kind of how, you know, like whether this is going to trigger profit taking, et cetera, how much more in terms of data activity that's going to be. I think that the most part, like it still depends heavily on the. The stability risks kind of evident in the macro side of things, which in my mind is still very favorable. So I think that this could probably carry us into a new all-coin season. All-coin season. What a harbinger of amazing things to come if we actually see that.
Starting point is 00:02:43 But there's a reason, obviously, that we're seeing this Ethereum pump, and it's not just because there's interest in all coins, right? I mean, we've got this guy out here. The Michael Saylor these days, it seems, as I like to call him, of Ethereum. But you've got Tom Lee saying he's going to raise as much as $20 billion more for Ethereum buys. There was also an article today that said 8% of Ethereum supply is now sitting in ETFs or company reserves. Because it's a smaller asset than Bitcoin, obviously, it's a lot easier for these guys to gobble up a meaningful percentage of the supply. $20 billion would be a lot of Ethereum.
Starting point is 00:03:17 That's a really good point because the volumes in E are like 5x lower than they are for Bitcoin. So every billion dollars more of like buying flow that kind of goes in is a lot more meaningful than the same amount that goes into Bitcoin. So I think that this is clearly what's driving price, but you raise a really good point because if you look at the alt coin market cap versus the alt coin or alt season index, you know, I'm looking at like coin market cap, for example, like you see that there are on very divergent paths. Like we're kind of like a new all time high as far as the. all coin market cap is concerned, but if you're looking at all season index, we're like in the mid 30s, not even breaking 50. And you really need to be above 75 to really be considered in all coin season. But, you know, like I recognize that a lot of that has to do with ETH. A lot of that has to do with these digital asset, treasury companies buying, uh, buying, but I think that we could still
Starting point is 00:04:17 see that given that this is driving more activity within the DFI space, within the all chain space, I think that this could probably propel a lot of the eth betas, first of all, and we're kind of seeing it with Lido and some of other things, although that has his own narrative. And then I think you could kind of see that into like assets further out the risk curve. Yeah. And also the ETF inflows for Ethereum have been just outstanding. We had a billion, just over a billion on Monday, two billion, I think aggregate in the last five days and wildly outperforming the Bitcoin ETFs.
Starting point is 00:04:52 Does that indicate anything different to you about who the bid is? Or do you think this is just people following the hype and the treasury companies right now? I'm a little cautious when I take the ETF flows at face value. Not because I don't think they're meaningful, but because a lot of that is netted off against the basis trade. And I feel like I'm a constant PSA reminder of that because you know, you have to kind of look at where the leverage funds, shorts are. And many of these are hedge funds who are kind of playing this. So some of that $1.8 billion ETF flow is kind of spoken for with shorts on the other side. And that's fine because they're trying to capitalize on that quote unquote market neutral kind of play.
Starting point is 00:05:32 Whereas with respect to like the debts, like that flow purely has a market impact. So I think that that's kind of why I favor more like looking at what Tom Lee is doing, what Bitmine's doing to kind of understand what's happening in the market at the moment. So interestingly, we had Tom Lee's name. narrative when he first said Ethereum is the new Bitcoin was stable coins, right? He went on, I think, and by the way, I don't fly into that. I think stable coins are a commodity. They'll be everywhere. But it was an easy pitch to Wall Street, right? He said, listen, I'm doing this on Eath because genius just passed and stable coins, incredible narrative, powerful. If you believe that narrative, though, you have to be a little bit cautious right now about what's happening
Starting point is 00:06:14 with stable coins elsewhere, right? This is a huge announcement. USDC issuer circle to launch new layer one arc blockchain this year. Endless conjecture on what this means, what it will be. But they hinted to maybe also doing tokenized assets and not just stable coins here. But it's got to make your spidey senses tingle a bit when USDA says they're going to launch their own layer one that they would likely consolidate a lot of USDC traffic to that chain. And that could definitely hurt that Ethereum narrative or other chains that are looking to stable coins for growth.
Starting point is 00:06:48 yeah i think this is one of those stealth narratives that people need to be paying attention to because many of us kind of assume that the l1 wars are over and they're not not by a long shot and i think stripe also had a very similar kind of announcement about this so the idea of trying to bypass ethereum because of its high fees because of its scalability issues yes a lot of it has changed like even on ethereum l1 like transaction fees are a lot cheaper than they used to be. So it's gone other days where like during like high season you might be paying like $20 or $40 to kind of get a transaction through. Like that's not the case anymore. The average fees are like sub one dollar. So I'd say that it's a different place. And of course you have these L2s where you can
Starting point is 00:07:33 kind of pay like sub one percent or I'm sorry sub one penny. But still I think that with the advent of like Canton having its own L1, more real world assets trying to launch on that. I think this is absolutely something that's not over yet. I think that the idea of a multi-chain kind of trend still definitely is there. We still have to worry about fragmentation. We still have to worry about potential innovation in stablecoin ecosystems. Anyway, if you're an eath buyer, that is. So I would say that this is something that we definitely need to be paying attention to.
Starting point is 00:08:07 Yeah, I mean, hasn't Tether made a similar hint? I saw some news that Tether hinted at their own chain. as well, but didn't make an official announcement. And we know that they're going to come into the United States with some different plan in the coming years. This really could be a major trend and just huge. It makes so much sense, actually, for Circle to do this. As mad as people are, like, and I wrote about this morning,
Starting point is 00:08:31 but like if you're, you know, Betsy from compliance at some company and you sent a bad stable coin transaction of $500,000 to a vendor, you can't call the Ethereum Foundation and ask for them to help you. But in this case, you could call Circle and probably get help. I mean, part of their pitch is that this has to be purpose built for institutions. I'm not saying that the world should cheer a centralized blockchain that allows roll backs. But for these purposes, if you want these to be used by institutions, you literally have to have
Starting point is 00:09:01 to have, like, customer service and usability for the average person. Yeah. I mean, listen, I think Ethereum was one of the first shows I came to talk about with you. And I'm still very bullish on its prospects. But, yeah, you can't argue that, I mean, with the advent of, like, real on-chain payments and stable coins kind of taking the world by storm, increasing adoption, you know, a lot of these companies like Circle want to evolve beyond Ethereum's bottlenecks. I don't think they're trying to snub them, but certainly I think that, you know, if your business is trying to unlock seamless global transfers, then, yeah, you might need to kind of consider whether you need to have a more isolated. ecosystem. They have to worry about security vulnerabilities, like any major hacks, things like this. So I think that this is going to be absolutely part of their considerations.
Starting point is 00:09:57 Yeah. I asked this question yesterday. Nobody had a good answer. I don't know if you have one either, but you touched on the fact that right now Ethereum fees are exceptionally low. I'm too blockheaded to understand how I can be paying 80 cents transaction on Ethereum when the network is seeing basically all-time highs in transactions because I remember last time it was like this and you were paying, you know, $1.12 to mint a $1 NFT. Yeah. I mean, absolutely. Like this is one of those things that has changed and probably not a lot of people have noticed.
Starting point is 00:10:31 The Ethereum transactions on the L1 themselves have become a lot more competitive. And part of that was in reaction to the L2s because L2 fees were just, you know, falling lower and lower. which, of course, they themselves were also trying to compete with Solana and other, like, newer L-O-Wans. So, I mean, this is, I think, a good thing in a lot of ways that the competition has kind of led to it. This is what it should be that, like, when you, you know, introduce more, you know, competition into the system, you want to reduce that friction. Of course, I would say that still not low enough relative to what a lot of people want to do, they still kind of want to maintain, like, the level of security that they're they have with Ethereum. So I think that this is kind of the question behind why these newer L1s are still kind of emerging. Yeah, and it definitely makes you question how many L2s we need.
Starting point is 00:11:25 Yeah. I mean, I still think they're dramatically cheaper on a percentage basis, but I think there's a threshold at which people don't care, like a basic floor. If you go from 50 cents to five cents, it's a huge drop, but someone who's sending 50 grand doesn't really care about a 50 cents, right? Yeah. But, you know, like once upon a time, like we were talking about ZK roll-ups. We're talking about like other things. And ZK hasn't gone away. I think like prove and distinct definitely are examples of that. But, you know, like I would still say that, you know, the range has dropped to lower than a penny to like 10 cents. Ten cents even seems like way too much to pay for an L2 these days. So things have definitely changed from where they used to be.
Starting point is 00:12:12 Yeah, well, one L2 that you're probably relatively familiar with. It's been doing exceptionally well as base, obviously. And there was announcement yesterday from you guys, Coinbase revived Stablecoin Bootstrap Fund to boost USDC in Defi. Coinbase has revived. It's fun, starting with supporting the stable coin on Ave, Morpho, Camino, and Jupiter. Can you explain exactly what this means? Yeah. So first of all, I would say that one of the big changes we've seen is that there's been a bigger migration onto base.
Starting point is 00:12:41 and the TVL growth has actually gone up to around like $5 billion in August. But as you know, I don't, I'm not here to kind of chill Coinbase, but, you know, like one of the things. I'm going to just keep asking him Coinbase questions and he's going to pretend to be a third party. It's perfect. We're used to this. It's part of our game, our routine. We do. And then I protest and I'm like, no, no, no, Scott.
Starting point is 00:13:02 I won't. But let's talk about it. But yes. So Coinbase we launched. It's stable coin bootstrap fund from back in 2019. and it's going to deploy not just UTC, but also EuroC. I've never knew whether I should say like UROC or UROC anyway, but UROC into D5 protocols like AVE, Morpho, Camino, Jupiter, and the idea is that it's going to try to
Starting point is 00:13:25 reduce slippage, boost efficiency. It's kind of trying to support growth amid this, you know, record $40.7 billion increase in active loans. So I think that this is kind of a prescient time to kind of be bringing this back. Okay. So with this coming back, what does it mean generally for base and for basically stable coins on base? As we talk about them going on to other layers, does this aggregate or bring a lot more stable coin action onto that chain? I think that that's probably one going to be the either direct or indirect effects of this. Certainly, we've been seeing, I think, liquidity in the stable coin sector go up on its own. Well, not quite on its own. A lot of that has to do with kind of the regulatory environment being a lot more favorable. But now we're up to like $270 billion.
Starting point is 00:14:16 A lot of people have been questioning, I think, on the Wall Street side of things, can this move us up to the $2 trillion mark that some of the, like, you know, bigger funds have kind of claimed that it could be or Scott Besson. I think it could. I think that where that lives is definitely a matter of grabs at the moment. I think, by the way, there's a mistaken thought that, like, this $2 trillion increase is just going to be in the United States. I tend to treat that as a global figure.
Starting point is 00:14:46 I think that this is going to happen for like emerging market countries and other places as well. With that, I think that being, you know, 10% of the like M2 money supply in the U.S. It's definitely well within bounds. So it's really a question of like. I don't think two trillion sounds big. Maybe it's because I'm in the echo chamber and I live here. But we, A, we've seen how fast.
Starting point is 00:15:09 things can just rise in crypto and they either just catch a bid or catch interest. But this is the biggest layup crossover we've ever had between blockchain technology and something that literally everybody needs. Yeah, I mean, this is just taking the technology and saying we can do this better. It's one of the few cases where that's actually worked. Stablecoins have been the killer act for a long time. I mean, money market funds have $7 trillion in them right now.
Starting point is 00:15:37 I would say that there is an argument to be had that, okay, how much of the, like, U.S. Treasury, like, and we're talking about like T-bills, low, less lower than like three months, how much availability of that is there for all these stable coins that would emerge, for example. But I don't think that's the problem that many people believe it is, especially when we're talking about kind of disintermediating the traditional financial system, like banks, things like that. But, you know, obviously the banks are worried. And so they have lobbyist kind of poking holes at the idea of like, oh, but what if like, what's going to happen to loans because people are going to want to deposit of banks? And well, I think they're like it just means that the loans won't come for the banks. There are any other services. Exactly. They just don't get it. There's the, hey, let's use stable coins in the legacy system.
Starting point is 00:16:30 And then there's when the light goes on and say, oh, you can do everything on this faster, cheaper, and better without the legacy system. exactly uh so i think that we're going to see it i mean like the amount of you know energy required to be used by like the banking system i mean all of that's going to be all it's going to go away because transaction is going to be like instantaneously settled on chain uh i mean like there's so many like good things that come out of it i think we just as an industry need to do a better job of promoting that idea like this is greener it's more efficient it's going to be faster it's going to be better for everyone. It's cheaper. I think we just need to, I mean, it's a very call it on, but we just kind of need to push it. Yeah, I mean, right now we're seeing
Starting point is 00:17:13 stable coin interests literally everywhere. And in my mind, what they want to talk about next is there's kind of two approaches, it seems, to how everyone's approaching the market in general and stable coin. So I think recently we saw announcements that, you know, Bank of America was exploring a stable coin. I think Citibank was exploring one yesterday. I think it was Wells Fargo or two days ago, all exploring their own coins. But then you have this other approach, which is, and not to show Coinbase once again, but effectively to just partner with Coinbase, we'll call it Crypto as a service, right? You go to a native like Coinbase, happens to generally be Coinbase. You guys are talking to PNC here. Obviously, we can get it to all that. But
Starting point is 00:17:54 you either basically partner with someone and through API access like JP Morgan and the credit cards, you just give everyone access without building yourself. And then there's those who seem to really want to kind of reinvent the wheel. So I think it's really two approaches. I'm not sure which one's going to win. Great for Coinbase and anyone who's building these things, though. Yeah. And again, I hate to sound like I'm shilling it, but we have been growing this part of the Coinbase aspect. I mean, if you aren't paying attention, like we have Crypto as a service that where we, like Coinbase, is the infrastructure partner of choice for, I think, over 250 or 240 of the world's leading banks, brokers, fintech, payment providers. Like, we have these licensed entities across major financial hubs.
Starting point is 00:18:42 We have support over 30 different jurisdictions. So I think that given the regulatory clarity we're getting, given the fact that crypto is increasing its geographic reach, I think that this is going to be the place where we will scale for institutions. the need to offer crypto to their clients. So this is probably one of the themes that maybe people probably have recognized this happening in the background. But to kind of put a point on it, this is what's going on. I would say like these secure regulated offerings that banks want to provide for their retail clients, for their private banking clients, I think that, you know, you're going
Starting point is 00:19:20 to go to Coinbase for your custody, for your brokerage, your stable coin payments, secure lending, tokenization. I think like all of that, I think that's a lot. I think that's the name of the game at the moment. The JP Morgan news, I know it's like two weeks old, but blew my mind. Like when I read that one, the fact that A, they're basically giving every JP Morgan client access to crypto trading, but it's just an API from Coinbase, right? So they're not building anything, nothing.
Starting point is 00:19:46 It's just an API pass through. I don't know how that works from a business perspective. But then the credit card points being able to fund your account and use them to buy Bitcoin. And this coming from JP Morgan, right? Listen, I think the company has actually been very bullish on crypto for a long time quietly, but certainly the CEO hasn't. But when JP Morgan makes an announcement like this, isn't that a signal that there's, I mean, everybody's coming one way or another.
Starting point is 00:20:11 I don't know about Vanguard, but everybody else has got to be coming. Yeah. I think that all of your traditional financial, it's not a matter of if now, it's clearly a matter of when. And especially, I think we didn't talk about it, but like the announcement from, last week with executive order to actually allow alternative assets like crypto into people's 401k balance sheets. I think that that's also going to be transformative because now we're talking about the clients. Now we're talking about the banks. All the traditional financial players
Starting point is 00:20:45 are all going to be moving towards this. I do kind of want to caveat and say like for people in crypto who expect these things to move fast, they're going to take a little bit longer than you would expect. I think, like, for example, the banks have moved, like, ridiculously fast for banks. But still, like, for the pension funds and for the other ones that are going to be including crypto and 401Ks, for example, I would still expect that that's going to take, you know, like, probably like one to two years, maybe even longer than two years for many of them to kind of adapt to those rules to kind of change their infrastructure to kind of allow this stuff. But the one thing is the genies cannot be put back in the bottle.
Starting point is 00:21:23 I want to circle back to kind of the beginning of the conversation and just talk markets because you always sort of have a premise for what's coming. Obviously, we take a look at coin market cap today. It's a lot of green. And when you look at the seven day, I mean, people are bored of Bitcoin, but it's up 6% in seven days. We're back to that thing where 6% apparently isn't enough just because we haven't made a new all-time high this week. But I mean, you've got Ethereum 32%. Slan up 23%. Doge up 23%. This does start to smell like all coin season. But I mean, how do you view maybe the end of this quarter and the next quarter? This is sort of defied the gravity of summer doldrums.
Starting point is 00:22:01 Usually we would think August the first 13 days would be somewhat miserable or at least sideways. And we just had news story after news story and kind of pump after pump here. Yeah. I mean, first, I kind of look at liquidity from two angles. Number one is we look at it from M2, but I mean, a lot of people throw out that M2 statistic. Like, all right, what has global M2 kind of look like? I would say, like, just customize it slightly. So this is kind of what we do.
Starting point is 00:22:25 We look at it relative to the markets that matter. So obviously there's a lot of crypto activity in the U.S., but more than the U.S., I mean, like, let's go into like what's happening in the EU, what's happening in South Korea, what's happening in other parts of Asia, what's happening in Brazil, weight those a little bit more heavily, and then figure out what the right lag should be. We think the lag should be somewhere around like 110 days based on our regression analysis, which kind of shows you that we're kind of in that period. where things are kind of like chudging sideways, but we're primed for a breakout starting in
Starting point is 00:22:57 September. And the other thing is I also customize my own like crypto liquidity index. Stable coins featured very heavily in that. Obviously, stable coins have grown a lot because of the regulatory environment. So that's also why this has happened. But this is also pumping more money into it. We've seen it decrease over the last three months or so, but probably over the last three weeks, it's been going higher. And so this is definitely contributing. now to like the move we're seeing up in crypto. I think that this really does put September as the right place for this to happen. And of course, that's going to coincide with other things, right? The Fed's going to be cutting rates. We're probably getting regulatory progress on the
Starting point is 00:23:35 Clarity Act. And I think that we should not discount how rates are going to affect our markets or how they're going to affect risk overall because some people think about it and say like, yeah, but we'll become a local top because we're going to be, we're going to, you know, buy the rumor, sell the fact. And I don't think so. Like, if you look at it, I said, yeah, exactly. Like, I definitely said earlier that money market funds are somewhere around like $7 trillion right now. That's like the highest they've ever been. But think about it because like where markets are right now, and I'm not talking just like crypto. I'm talking about, you know, equities and other things. It's a very weird environment to be in where both money market
Starting point is 00:24:15 funds, i.e. cash balances are super high yet markets are doing this well. That definitely gives me the signal that people are not invested here, or rather than not fully invested here. I think that there's still a lot of capital to be deployed. And we know why that happened, right? Because April basically was a very short window where, like, you know, there was an opportunity for, yeah, tariffs. But like, when the tariff threat started to kind of get abated, it was very hard to kind of put your money in fast enough.
Starting point is 00:24:43 And you had like less than a week to do it before like markets kind of like recovered. And, you know, not for nothing, but it seemed a little expensive. again. So I think that as a result, this has been a hated rally. I think that people have not participated. They were upset that they haven't participated. And once we start seeing rates get cut, then, of course, your returns on money market funds are going to drop. And so as soon as those cuts come in September October, I think people are going to need to reassess and be like, it's, it's not cost effective for me to be in money market funds anymore. I have to rotate that capital. I think that's going into crypto and other risk assets.
Starting point is 00:25:23 You'll have to wonder if that causes like a one or two or three months just blow off top. Like a kind of, you know, the liquidity spigot opens. Everybody panics back into the market and forms a local top so that they all lose by waiting so long. I mean, if retail doesn't buy the top en masse, then you don't have charts to look at. Yeah. I mean, that's what I struggle with when it comes to Q4. I mean, our thesis had been that we would see those lows in the first half the year, and we knew all-time highs in the second half the year.
Starting point is 00:25:52 I think that it's more likely to kind of fall into, you know, like end of Q3, early Q4, but I don't know what's going to happen towards the end of like Q4. Like, honestly, like, it's kind of a black box for me at this point. Do you think that the four-year cycle that we've had in the past is dead? Like a lot of people looking at it and saying Q4 is the end, right? You know, we've seen this every time, so we're going to have to sell everything and panic into a bear market for the next three years. I don't personally think that's what's going to happen here. I don't think the halving is particularly meaningful.
Starting point is 00:26:27 There's a lot bigger things going on. But, I mean, there is that mentality that that could be what happens. I mean, do you think that we see the same cycles that we've seen in the past? Do you think it's a different market now? I think it's a different market now. I think a lot of things have changed that. ETFs were the first instance. Now we have the, you know, the DATs and, you know, we can argue all day about longevity of these things and whether there's going to be consolidation and other things,
Starting point is 00:26:54 but they have fundamentally changed the way we've kind of perceived this stuff, especially with staking ETFs on the way. I think that there's going to be this real comparison by a lot of investors of like, well, who can do it more efficiently? Who's going to stake more efficiently? What's going to happen with like with staking? Who's going to provide me that yield? And ultimately, if I'm looking into 2006, it might be a bit of a question mark for me in terms of like what ultimately will happen in Q4 in terms of profit taking or other things or like are people going to be buying it too expensive. But I'm very optimistic about what's going to happen in 2006. I think that we're going to like, yeah, I think that we're going to see a change of the framework on the fiscal
Starting point is 00:27:32 side of things. I think we're going to change see a change on the regulatory side. People forget that yes, we just got the Genius Act passed, but it takes about 18 months. for all of that to be implemented and fully, you know, built into our financial system. So I think that those changes are only going to be evident next year. Anything else you're super excited about that we have not discussed or might be on your radar or not ours? I think the D5 side of things definitely needs a second look. We've kind of seen it. A lot of that has kind of dealt with some of the older names like Arabe where like the utilization rates have just skyrocketed.
Starting point is 00:28:09 But also, I would say some of the younger players, Pendle is a good one, for example. I think that's super interesting right now, especially given the fact that you have this option now to kind of swap your floating funding rates for fixed funding rates. I think that these newer innovations, I think, could also start to transform our space. I mean, if anything, kind of at least makes it known that we need to continue looking at perps and some of the more unique things that are, you know, know, pertinent into our space. I wonder if we're going to end up the same trend we talked about before, which is building it on your own or going to some sort of infrastructure provider as a service for defy as well, because we know that once institutions get their feet wet with crypto, they're going to start hunting for yield. Yeah. No, absolutely. I mean, even like the
Starting point is 00:28:59 dex to sex ratio is up to, I mean, it did go above 20% at one point, but we started the year, I think, around like 10%, and we're currently around 18 or 19%. So definitely, I think the path is towards more participation in the defy space. Yeah, it's so much coming. It's hard to imagine that we would do a 75% Bitcoin drawdown bear market like next year. I just, I don't see it. Maybe I'm blind. But, you know, these stories that we have on a daily basis were the kind of things
Starting point is 00:29:30 that would have moved the market 20, 30%, just two or three years ago. And now they're, you know, completely brushed off as normal. Yeah, the conversation is now, what is the, floor for Bitcoin. It's no longer, hey, like, is it going to zero? It's more like, is it going to hold at 100 from now on? And I think that that's the right question. Absolutely. Thank you, David. As always, guys, give him a follow on X because he's actually there years later. I see you. I know. Four years later and you've convinced me. So now you got on a while ago, but you know, it did take a while. You had the best like, I don't remember. D, triple D, triple quadruple D. D. That's three Ds. Yeah. Yeah. I
Starting point is 00:30:09 But now I have a much more professional one, just my name. You know, we should have kept that one around just in case. Anyways, guys, give David a follow. Thank you, man, as always. Thanks. All right, guys, as usual, on Wednesday, we talk about Aptos right here. I tweeted this yesterday in a world chasing the next chili chain. My longtime partners Aptos are playing a different game.
Starting point is 00:30:31 Meta Roots backed by Black Rock, Franklin Temple. I saw this news, but UFC strike to migrate to Aptos. I think it's fair to say that right now, Aptos is dominating, doing exceptionally well. One of the busiest chains this week, as you can see. So go check them out right now, especially if you're trying to build something, trade something, do something. You can all do it there faster and cheaper and with more security.
Starting point is 00:31:07 Now I'm going to pray right now. I'm going to say a prayer to the gods of Stream Yard that when I bring on Chris, we're two for three with his thing playing a beat and not coming on with the mic. Can you talk? Are we good? Yes. Oh, man. Thank God.
Starting point is 00:31:27 We did. I was ready to dance. You know, I don't know, man. I don't know what it is because, again, you know, we do that Beards and Bitcoin show just, you know, a few hours later. on stream yard and that's on stream yard yeah yeah yeah it's only the the invite to to this show for the last three weeks the two of the last three weeks for whatever reason had that issue so you can hey we're here it's working now so we're here we're here and we're not just here but the market is right here relative to all-time highs we gotta say man you me david who was just
Starting point is 00:32:02 on matt hogan there's been a couple people i've been having on my show for literally ever who were like, Eth's going to do it, man. Yep. Like every time it goes lower, I'm telling you, we never gave up faith on that. And, man, it's paying off. We got Eiff. We'll do Bitcoin first, but I'm just saying, like, the fact that Eith is sniffing an all-time high.
Starting point is 00:32:21 Bitcoin's sniffing an all-time high, too. Yeah, yeah. So take a look at that first because I'm looking at your chart and that looks damn good. Oh, yeah. This looks great. And everybody getting it freaking out with this move here that we had here on, what was that Monday? It's an ugly candle there.
Starting point is 00:32:35 but you know again we just kind of got this pullback and it looks like it wants to break out higher so if it does i think we only get a little bit of first thing we get like a little sneak out here around 125 or so and then we get a pullback but if we do that if we if we can get that around 125 and then we kind of get this pullback down here toward 118 um that i've got targets sitting up there closer to 149 000 um heading off there because that would give us like a one and a two Five waves up gets us up there around 149,000. So I really kind of like that opportunity, but we're going to play it locally right now.
Starting point is 00:33:13 So, you know, we're going to look for this to kind of continue up here and potentially hit that $125,000 area to kind of set up that move, you know, for Bitcoin there. But, I mean, it looks great. The structure looks great. We had a great pullback, the back up the edge of the creek there, the BUC, with the previous reaccumulation range there and that printing another reaccumulation right on top of it.
Starting point is 00:33:35 I mean, man, this thing's just kind of setting up to go, I think. Yeah, I think so, too. So do you think that that means we get a little pause in the all-coin excitement that maybe we go back to the, you know, down and Bitcoin up in dollars or flat in dollars kind of a situation? Or do you think that this is one of those situations where they might run together? We've actually seen a few Bitcoin pumps of late where, you know, all-coins actually outperform. Like, Bitcoin goes up and Bitcoin dominance goes down. It's the dream. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:03 No, I think this might be one of those things where they kind of go up with it. You know, I've got three charts here. We'll look at in just a minute. But they're looking like they're set up to, you know, they've got a little bit of a push higher, kind of like Bitcoin here, and then a pullback and then a bigger move up coming. Ethereum, a little bit more difficult. Ethereum looks like locally it's about to top out right here around that all time high. And so I'm not expecting it to do a hole.
Starting point is 00:34:29 I'm not expecting to break up above the all-time high and shoot up. it could, but I'm expecting it more to kind of get around that area and then pull back and then kind of really take off. So I think if it does kind of break out just slightly, I think a lot of people might get caught trying to buy that breakout. But, you know, it happens often, right? You know, the rule is that you usually get a run up into a resistance level, like an all-time high or a swing high or something, you know, a little bit below, a little bit above.
Starting point is 00:35:00 and then you pull back and then you break out that's more the rule but everybody kind of always looks at the oh my god the minute breaks out it's going to run just because every so often it does that so i usually tend to you know take the little safer approach to that and don't just buy the breakout so what else you watch them all this is happening you got to be watching eith and salana right now i actually brought up randomly this morning i just looked at an eith versus salon chart which i rarely do and salana's obviously beaten down but had massive bullish divergence oversold against eat so maybe it's gonna you know rotate a little bit to salana yeah like i said you know ethereum if i pull that i guess let me go to pull that chart up here
Starting point is 00:35:41 real quick uh let me see here here's looks like me like 700 different starts of each thing with there's so many man where where's my theory there we go we'll just look at a Let's go chart and I'll pull it up. All right. So here we go and, you know, we've got this, again, this move up here toward this all-time high up here, right? So we're almost there locally was what I'm talking about here. On this move here, you see we've got one, two, three, four, and five here. So I think it kind of tops out about where it is here and then we get this pullback before we actually get a decent breakout.
Starting point is 00:36:25 But this has just been, you know, a great. move off this low here. We were talking to in the academy. We were talking to our students about buying this low down here, especially after this bullish engulfing candle printed off that pivot. And that's been, you know, $3,500, $3,500 up there to basically $4,700 now. So, you know, Ethereum's been a great run so far. But just locally right here again, I do expect that we're, you know, this is, you know, one, two, three, four, and five. So I do expect we will be topping out most likely somewhere in this area and then kind of pull them back first. Um, and so if we see that and then we look at, what'd you say, Salana?
Starting point is 00:37:03 Yeah. Solana. Let me see here. Looking your life hard by going off. That's all right. I mean, it's all right. I got charts here. I already set up.
Starting point is 00:37:13 Why is the MES coming up on Solana? Uh, give me a minute. Just type in Solana and go straight to it. You'll catch it. Uh, let me see here. Choose your poison. I don't know why the other one's coming up there, but, uh, there we go. Let me kind of pull this out to the daily here. Again, kind of getting up there to the end.
Starting point is 00:37:35 But again, you know, we've got what appears to be one, two, three, four, and just a really overextended fifth up here. We're hitting the R1 pivot on the monthly. You know, we're overbought here on stochastic RSI. RSI is about to hit overbought. So again, you know, kind of look at, and this is the range high up here from way back all the way over. This thing, effectively, this has been range bound since this swing high up over here in March, mid-March of 2024. So this is just one kind of large range. And we got a spring down here. And so now we get our move up here.
Starting point is 00:38:10 So really locally here looking for this kind of, again, move just right up around where it is, kind of a pullback. And then a rally higher. This local one, two, here has a wave three target up there, 344. After we get this pullback here, we should be looking to run it up toward that. So, but the good news here is this long accumulation that we've had here, you know, for over a year means that once we get going here, we should really kind of, kind of get going on that, you know, and kind of really get us moving because you have this longer term sideways kind of building toward this breakout. So I'm definitely liking Salana here as well. But again, locally, likely toward a topish area, a really local top.
Starting point is 00:38:57 get a pullback, and then we start looking for some bigger movements out. Yeah, maybe we'll get that little pause. I'll tell you, maybe these are all going to run right into the all-time high. Bitcoin will run up a little bit. Everyone will say alt-or dead, and then we blast their all-time highs. Well, but they say alt-or dead every time they're not moving up like 20% in a day, right? I mean, so, you know. Let's jump over here real quick.
Starting point is 00:39:19 I've got these three charts here. I've got near, near, anyway, doing a great, you know, looks like, great reaccumulation range here heading our way out again these you know these are all you're kind of seeing the same thing across most salts locally here you're getting one two three four fifth wave up near the previous swing high no pun intended so kind of looking for this to run up here toward this three dollars three dollars and eight cent area pull on back down here to around 267 or so as my initial targets a 50 percent pullback but expecting it basically to stay above this monthly pivot at two dollars and 55 cents so we get you know again this fifth wave kind of push up there pull back
Starting point is 00:40:01 and then that gives us locally here wave three up at about four dollars and 28 cents here so you know and you're just going to kind of see this across a lot of alts so if you're not seeing the alt that you want to trade in here see if it kind of comes up the same way here how'd you get the dancing doge on there what's going on there do it I had just saw a little doge come dancing onto the screen it does it every time every time pull up doge does it not do it for you i don't know i haven't pulled up doge in a long time well there you go man it does it f around and find out there you go is on any doge pair yeah if you pull up doge it should uh it should work um dancing i didn't get it you didn't get it oh i guess i'm special or something i don't know now i'm going to try different ways
Starting point is 00:40:47 to pull it up which doge chart are you looking at this is important doge usd on coinbase maybe it's just because of that of mine is oh is it so mad um locally here nothing nothing i get nothing isn't so insulting it's it's all right anyway you can keep going i want to dance and doge it's ridiculous i pay for this thing once again we got a one into two here we're breaking out above wave b so this wave three target minimum expected up here at 58 cents basically should be in progress but once again locally here one two three four we're getting this five so looking for this rejection here expecting a pullback that kind of stays right around the uh the monthly pivot here at point 218 and then looking for that next move up but
Starting point is 00:41:36 uh you know again this being a one looks like a one two and a three here uh i'm sorry uh one two three up so we've broken out above wave b so overall expecting that to kind of run up there toward that 58 cent area um and i've got fLR us ds here. And just locally here, I like this. It looks like a pretty clear one, two, three triangles of four here should be complete based on the height of the pullback here. You know, we've got this pattern target up there around 0.033323. But again, it's just, you know, a fifth wave locally, again, like everybody else, right? Breaking out above wave B here at 0.02613 is going to add confidence to this count.
Starting point is 00:42:24 and, you know, say that that triangle is complete. But, yeah, looking for that pullback there. And then guess what? I literally introduced, I interviewed those guys yesterday. Did you? Yeah. Well, there they go. They're not like to get excited.
Starting point is 00:42:36 Look, he's talking good about our charts. Okay. I didn't say that out loud. I don't want like things. But yeah, it was really cool. I've never met them and talked to them yesterday. And then you just randomly bring up a flare chart. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:47 I mean, it looks, it just looks so good. I mean, you know, again, there are no guarantees ever on things. But once you break on above wave B, you know, the odds are in your favor that it's going to head up there and so, you know, it just hits that wave five and then it pulls back into the triangle back there down toward the pivot again
Starting point is 00:43:02 and then we're off, you know, one more time for higher. So, but we're seeing the same thing across many, many alts. And so again, you know, if you're watching this, you're like, oh, but he didn't do my chart, whatever your chart happens to be. Look and see locally here on the daily charts.
Starting point is 00:43:17 See if you can count, even if you've never done any kind of wave counting. You're just looking for swing high, swing low, right? So you get a one and a two, three, four, five is three. Triangle is a four, and you know, you've got your five there. Then you pull back down here, then you take off again. And you make that money, right? I mean, that's what we're here to do is make money.
Starting point is 00:43:37 We're not here to bag hold, right? I'm here for the dancing dog. I literally went off camera and got a mitt so I could make. So you can dance at yourself. I can't get to go onto the chart, though. It goes behind the charts, annoying. Baby steps, baby steps. you know i yeah that was cool like i there's got to be a setting that i'm missing or something
Starting point is 00:43:58 i didn't touch anything we went to stream this today on x too and like it's not really working it just is untitled like things are just broken man i don't know but but hey it worked for me this week to get on here so at least there's that yeah that's good i'm just keep the mid up you got anything else or we were we cooked through them i think we cooked through no man we jumped on through them already so that was awesome man thank you i'm glad we were able to hear you everybody to give TX West Capital a follow on X, which is sometimes working, check on everything else he's got going on, man. Thank you so much.
Starting point is 00:44:28 And we will see, I'll be back tomorrow and I'll see you next week, man. Thanks. Appreciate it, man. Peace. Bye. Let's go. Thank you.

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